Updated 2026-07-05 00:32 AEST
55
Bouts
7
Events
23
Value Bets
New here? How to read these predictions
Win probability
Our model's estimate that a fighter wins — e.g. 72% means we'd expect them to win roughly 7 of 10 times.
Confidence interval (CI)
The range the true probability likely falls in. Wider = less certain. A pick'em fight has a wide band; a clear favourite a narrow one.
Edge
How much higher our probability is than the bookmaker's implied odds. Positive edge = we think it's underpriced.
EV (expected value)
Average return if you placed the bet many times. +15% EV means about 15c profit per $1 staked, on average.
Risk tiers
Conservative leans to safe favourites, Balanced blends, Aggressive chases bigger-odds longshots. Pick what suits you.
Edge badges
Strong / Solid / Slight edge rank how much value the model sees — and how big a stake it suggests. They're not a promise the bet wins.

Tap any fight row to open the full model breakdown. New to the model itself? How it works · FAQ.

Max Holloway
Holloway
Main Event
71%
Model Leans Holloway
2026-07-11
Conor McGregor
McGregor
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2
2026
11
JUL
⚡ Next Event

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2

T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, USA
14
Bouts
9
Value Bouts
Max Holloway
Max Holloway
United States 27-9-0 Muay Thai Orthodox 1 loss
SB 1.39
71% | 29%
Welterweight 5 rds
⏱ Sun 1:30 PM AEST
Conor McGregor
Conor McGregor
Ireland 22-6-0 Southpaw 2-fight loss streak
SB 2.92
Breakdown ▼
5 value bets on SportsBet
Model Favourite
Max Holloway
71.0 %
050100
90% CI · 41 – 98 · σ 0.052 · High
Why this pick
  • Max Holloway lands 1.6 more sig strikes per minute
  • Max Holloway stuffs 15% more incoming takedowns
  • Max Holloway comes in on a 1-fight cleaner skid
  • the case against Conor McGregor finishes 39% more of their wins
  • layoff McGregor hasn't fought since Jul 2021 — ring rust is hard to price, so the model widens its uncertainty here
  • Max Holloway out-volumes opponents at 6.9 sig/min vs Conor McGregor's 5.3
Method Breakdown
Holloway McGregor
KO/TKO 55.0
14.9
Submission 2.6
1.2
Decision 13.4
12.9
Finish Distribution · By Round
30
R1
20
R2
11
R3
9
R4
3
R5
26
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Holloway McGregor
Str/min 6.9
5.3
Sig Acc 48%
50%
Str Def 59%
54%
TD/min 0.02
0.04
Finish 47%
86%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
78
63
HollowayMcGregor
Combined 124 19–281
Takedowns
0.0
0.2
HollowayMcGregor
Combined 0.3 0.0–3.7
Fight length
Expected 2.5 of 5 rounds 26% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Holloway

    Max Holloway lands 1.6 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Finish rate favours McGregor

    Conor McGregor finishes 39% more of their wins

  • 03 KO rate favours McGregor

    Conor McGregor finishes by KO 34% more often

  • 04 Takedown defence favours Holloway

    Max Holloway stuffs 15% more incoming takedowns

  • 05 Loss streak favours Holloway

    Max Holloway comes in on a 1-fight cleaner skid

  • 06 Submission rate favours Holloway

    Max Holloway taps opponents 6% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 5 flagged · 75 markets analysed
  • Max Holloway wins by KO/TKO in R1
    Strong edge
    Model 22%
    Bookies 15%
    EV / $100 +$44
    Stake 2.0%
    6.50
    $20 returns $130
    +$110 profit
  • Conor McGregor wins by DEC
    Solid edge
    Model 13%
    Bookies 9%
    EV / $100 +$42
    Stake 1.1%
    11.00
    $10 returns $110
    +$100 profit
  • Max Holloway wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2
    Strong edge
    Model 37%
    Bookies 27%
    EV / $100 +$40
    Stake 3.6%
    3.75
    $36 returns $135
    +$99 profit
  • Max Holloway wins by finish in Round 1
    Solid edge
    Model 23%
    Bookies 17%
    EV / $100 +$37
    Stake 1.9%
    5.90
    $19 returns $112
    +$93 profit
  • Conor McGregor wins in R4+ or by Decision
    Solid edge
    Model 16%
    Bookies 12%
    EV / $100 +$25
    Stake 0.9%
    8.00
    $9 returns $72
    +$63 profit
Paddy Pimblett
Paddy Pimblett
England 23-4-0 Orthodox 1 loss
SB 2.26
33% | 67%
Lightweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 12:45 PM AEST
Benoit Saint Denis
Benoit Saint Denis
France 17-3-0 MMA Southpaw 4-fight win streak
SB 1.62
Breakdown ▼
8 value bets on SportsBet
Model Favourite
Benoit Saint Denis
67.4 %
050100
90% CI · 37 – 97 · σ 0.064 · High
Why this pick
  • Benoit Saint Denis rides a 4-fight longer win streak
  • Benoit Saint Denis finishes 29% more of their wins
  • Benoit Saint Denis hits 0.23 more takedowns per minute
  • the case against Paddy Pimblett eats 0.2 fewer strikes per minute
  • Benoit Saint Denis rides a 4-fight win streak (Paddy Pimblett: 0)
Method Breakdown
Pimblett Denis
KO/TKO 7.1
11.5
Submission 8.8
27.7
Decision 16.7
28.2
Finish Distribution · By Round
21
R1
25
R2
10
R3
45
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Pimblett Denis
Str/min 5.5
5.6
Sig Acc 53%
59%
Str Def 43%
42%
TD/min 0.05
0.28
Finish 62%
92%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
29
33
PimblettDenis
Combined 68 17–156
Takedowns
0.0
1.9
PimblettDenis
Combined 2.4 0.0–5.1
Fight length
Expected 2.0 of 3 rounds 44% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Denis

    Benoit Saint Denis rides a 4-fight longer win streak

  • 02 Finish rate favours Denis

    Benoit Saint Denis finishes 29% more of their wins

  • 03 Takedown volume favours Denis

    Benoit Saint Denis hits 0.23 more takedowns per minute

  • 04 KO rate favours Denis

    Benoit Saint Denis finishes by KO 33% more often

  • 05 Strikes absorbed favours Pimblett

    Paddy Pimblett eats 0.2 fewer strikes per minute

  • 06 Takedown defence favours Denis

    Benoit Saint Denis stuffs 28% more incoming takedowns

Value Bets · SportsBet 8 flagged · 54 markets analysed
  • Benoit Saint Denis wins by Submission in R2
    Solid edge
    Model 12%
    Bookies 8%
    EV / $100 +$53
    Stake 1.2%
    12.50
    $12 returns $150
    +$138 profit
  • Benoit Saint Denis wins by DEC
    Strong edge
    Model 28%
    Bookies 19%
    EV / $100 +$50
    Stake 2.9%
    5.30
    $29 returns $154
    +$125 profit
  • Benoit Saint Denis wins by Decision
    Strong edge
    Model 28%
    Bookies 20%
    EV / $100 +$41
    Stake 2.6%
    5.00
    $26 returns $130
    +$104 profit
  • Benoit Saint Denis wins by Sub or Decision
    Strong edge
    Model 56%
    Bookies 40%
    EV / $100 +$40
    Stake 6.6%
    2.50
    $66 returns $165
    +$99 profit
  • Benoit Saint Denis wins by Submission in R1 or R2
    Solid edge
    Model 23%
    Bookies 19%
    EV / $100 +$21
    Stake 1.2%
    5.30
    $12 returns $64
    +$52 profit
  • Fight goes to Decision
    Strong edge
    Model 45%
    Bookies 37%
    EV / $100 +$21
    Stake 3.1%
    2.70
    $31 returns $84
    +$53 profit
  • Benoit Saint Denis wins
    Strong edge
    Model 67%
    Bookies 62%
    EV / $100 +$9
    Stake 3.7%
    1.62
    $37 returns $60
    +$23 profit
  • Fight reaches Round 2
    Strong edge
    Model 79%
    Bookies 72%
    EV / $100 +$9
    Stake 5.9%
    1.38
    $59 returns $81
    +$22 profit
Cory Sandhagen
Cory Sandhagen
United States 18-6-0 MMA Switch Stance 1 loss
SB 1.63
53% | 47%
Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 12:15 PM AEST
Mario Bautista
Mario Bautista
United States 17-3-0 Freestyle Switch Stance 1 win
SB 2.25
Breakdown ▼
1 value bet on SportsBet
Model Favourite
Cory Sandhagen
53.1 %
050100
90% CI · 23 – 83 · σ 0.063 · High
Why this pick
  • Cory Sandhagen eats 0.5 fewer strikes per minute
  • Cory Sandhagen finishes by KO 23% more often
  • the case against Mario Bautista rides a 1-fight longer win streak
  • Cory Sandhagen has never been finished in 16 fights
Method Breakdown
Sandhagen Bautista
KO/TKO 16.8
8.5
Submission 4.7
8.7
Decision 31.6
29.7
Finish Distribution · By Round
15
R1
13
R2
10
R3
61
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Sandhagen Bautista
Str/min 4.9
5.3
Sig Acc 45%
49%
Str Def 57%
55%
TD/min 0.08
0.13
Finish 50%
50%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
56
51
SandhagenBautista
Combined 97 21–174
Takedowns
0.0
0.9
SandhagenBautista
Combined 1.9 0.0–4.7
Fight length
Expected 2.4 of 3 rounds 62% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Sandhagen

    Cory Sandhagen eats 0.5 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Bautista

    Mario Bautista rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 03 Striking volume favours Bautista

    Mario Bautista lands 0.4 more sig strikes per minute

  • 04 KO rate favours Sandhagen

    Cory Sandhagen finishes by KO 23% more often

  • 05 Submission rate favours Bautista

    Mario Bautista taps opponents 22% more often

  • 06 Takedown volume favours Bautista

    Mario Bautista hits 0.05 more takedowns per minute

Value Bets · SportsBet 1 flagged · 53 markets analysed
  • Mario Bautista wins by KO or Sub
    Solid edge
    Model 17%
    Bookies 13%
    EV / $100 +$29
    Stake 1.1%
    7.50
    $11 returns $82
    +$72 profit
Brandon Royval
Brandon Royval
United States 17-9-0 Brawler Southpaw 2-fight loss streak
SB 2.72
35% | 65%
Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 11:45 AM AEST
LK
Lone'er Kavanagh
3-1-0 Orthodox 1 win
SB 1.44
Breakdown ▼
2 value bets on SportsBet
Model Favourite
Lone'er Kavanagh
65.2 %
050100
90% CI · 35 – 95 · σ 0.074 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Lone'er Kavanagh eats 0.8 fewer strikes per minute
  • Lone'er Kavanagh rides a 1-fight longer win streak
  • Lone'er Kavanagh stuffs 49% more incoming takedowns
  • the case against Brandon Royval lands 1.4 more sig strikes per minute
  • Brandon Royval out-volumes opponents at 5.5 sig/min vs Lone'er Kavanagh's 4.1
Method Breakdown
Royval Kavanagh
KO/TKO 2.0
16.7
Submission 15.5
3.9
Decision 17.3
44.5
Finish Distribution · By Round
19
R1
12
R2
6
R3
62
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Royval Kavanagh
Str/min 5.5
4.1
Sig Acc 42%
48%
Str Def 43%
56%
TD/min 0.04
0.08
Finish 58%
25%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
47
55
RoyvalKavanagh
Combined 91 21–159
Takedowns
0.2
0.6
RoyvalKavanagh
Combined 1.3 0.0–4.1
Fight length
Expected 2.3 of 3 rounds 62% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Kavanagh

    Lone'er Kavanagh eats 0.8 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Royval

    Brandon Royval lands 1.4 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Win streak favours Kavanagh

    Lone'er Kavanagh rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 04 Finish rate favours Royval

    Brandon Royval finishes 33% more of their wins

  • 05 Takedown defence favours Kavanagh

    Lone'er Kavanagh stuffs 49% more incoming takedowns

  • 06 Submission rate favours Royval

    Brandon Royval taps opponents 25% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 2 flagged · 56 markets analysed
  • Lone'er Kavanagh wins by Decision
    Strong edge
    Model 45%
    Bookies 38%
    EV / $100 +$17
    Stake 2.6%
    2.62
    $26 returns $68
    +$42 profit
  • Lone'er Kavanagh wins by DEC
    Strong edge
    Model 45%
    Bookies 39%
    EV / $100 +$14
    Stake 2.2%
    2.55
    $22 returns $56
    +$34 profit
King Green
King Green
United States 35-17-1 MMA Orthodox 3-fight win streak
SB 2.26
42% | 58%
Lightweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 11:15 AM AEST
Terrance McKinney
Terrance McKinney
United States 18-8-0 MMA Switch Stance 1 win
SB 1.62
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Terrance McKinney
57.7 %
050100
90% CI · 28 – 88 · σ 0.103 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Terrance McKinney finishes 57% more of their wins
  • Terrance McKinney lands 1.0 more sig strikes per minute
  • Terrance McKinney finishes by KO 32% more often
  • the case against King Green rides a 2-fight longer win streak
  • King Green rides a 3-fight win streak (Terrance McKinney: 1)
Method Breakdown
Green McKinney
KO/TKO 15.0
30.6
Submission 11.7
7.7
Decision 15.6
19.5
Finish Distribution · By Round
38
R1
24
R2
3
R3
35
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Green McKinney
Str/min 6.6
7.6
Sig Acc 54%
56%
Str Def 62%
42%
TD/min 0.09
0.20
Finish 43%
100%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
33
32
GreenMcKinney
Combined 74 18–154
Takedowns
0.1
1.3
GreenMcKinney
Combined 1.8 0.0–5.1
Fight length
Expected 1.7 of 3 rounds 35% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Green

    King Green rides a 2-fight longer win streak

  • 02 Finish rate favours McKinney

    Terrance McKinney finishes 57% more of their wins

  • 03 Striking volume favours McKinney

    Terrance McKinney lands 1.0 more sig strikes per minute

  • 04 Strikes absorbed favours Green

    King Green eats 0.4 fewer strikes per minute

  • 05 KO rate favours McKinney

    Terrance McKinney finishes by KO 32% more often

  • 06 Takedown volume favours McKinney

    Terrance McKinney hits 0.11 more takedowns per minute

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed
No markets passed the empirical-ROI gate. 2 markets analysed.
Robert Whittaker
Robert Whittaker
Australia 27-9-0 Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
SB 1.47
54% | 46%
Light Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 10:35 AM AEST
Nikita Krylov
Nikita Krylov
Ukraine 31-11-0 Karate Orthodox 1 win
SB 2.62
Breakdown ▼
1 value bet on SportsBet
Model Favourite
Robert Whittaker
54.3 %
050100
90% CI · 24 – 84 · σ 0.073 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Robert Whittaker stuffs 29% more incoming takedowns
  • the case against Nikita Krylov eats 0.8 fewer strikes per minute
  • Robert Whittaker has never been finished in 24 fights
Method Breakdown
Whittaker Krylov
KO/TKO 14.5
16.4
Submission 9.9
9.7
Decision 30.0
19.6
Finish Distribution · By Round
28
R1
18
R2
6
R3
50
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Whittaker Krylov
Str/min 4.4
4.4
Sig Acc 43%
54%
Str Def 60%
48%
TD/min 0.05
0.14
Finish 42%
81%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
42
38
WhittakerKrylov
Combined 73 17–142
Takedowns
0.2
0.7
WhittakerKrylov
Combined 1.2 0.0–4.3
Fight length
Expected 2.0 of 3 rounds 48% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Krylov

    Nikita Krylov eats 0.8 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Finish rate favours Krylov

    Nikita Krylov finishes 39% more of their wins

  • 03 Win streak favours Krylov

    Nikita Krylov rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 04 Submission rate favours Krylov

    Nikita Krylov taps opponents 24% more often

  • 05 Takedown defence favours Whittaker

    Robert Whittaker stuffs 29% more incoming takedowns

  • 06 Striking accuracy favours Krylov

    Nikita Krylov is 11% more accurate on the feet

Value Bets · SportsBet 1 flagged · 2 markets analysed
  • Nikita Krylov wins
    Strong edge
    Model 46%
    Bookies 38%
    EV / $100 +$20
    Stake 3.0%
    2.62
    $30 returns $79
    +$49 profit
Gable Steveson
Gable Steveson
0-0-0 nan
SB 1.04
81% | 19%
Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 10:10 AM AEST
Elisha Ellison
Elisha Ellison
United States 5-2-0 Striker Orthodox 1 loss
SB 10.00
Breakdown ▼
1 value bet on SportsBet
Model Favourite
Gable Steveson
81.4 %
050100
90% CI · 51 – 98 · σ 0.042 · High
Why this pick
  • Gable Steveson comes in on a 1-fight cleaner skid
  • Model uncertainty: ±4pp on the win probability
Method Breakdown
Steveson Ellison
KO/TKO 54.9
9.6
Submission 4.3
4.1
Decision 22.2
4.9
Finish Distribution · By Round
41
R1
21
R2
11
R3
27
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Steveson Ellison
Str/min 0.0
1.6
Sig Acc 0%
33%
Str Def 0%
41%
TD/min 0.00
0.00
Finish 0%
100%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
31
16
StevesonEllison
Combined 46 13–131
Takedowns
0.0
0.1
StevesonEllison
Combined 0.9 0.0–4.3
Fight length
Expected 1.6 of 3 rounds 27% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Loss streak favours Steveson

    Gable Steveson comes in on a 1-fight cleaner skid

Value Bets · SportsBet 1 flagged · 1 markets analysed
  • Elisha Ellison wins
    Strong edge
    Model 19%
    Bookies 10%
    EV / $100 +$86
    Stake 2.4%
    10.00
    $24 returns $240
    +$216 profit
Cody Garbrandt
Cody Garbrandt
United States 15-7-0 Freestyle Orthodox 1 win
SB 4.15
29% | 71%
Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 9:40 AM AEST
Adrian Yanez
Adrian Yanez
United States 17-6-1 Boxer Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
SB 1.22
Breakdown ▼
1 value bet on SportsBet
Model Favourite
Adrian Yanez
70.5 %
050100
90% CI · 41 – 98 · σ 0.072 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Adrian Yanez lands 3.1 more sig strikes per minute
  • Adrian Yanez finishes by KO 11% more often
  • the case against Cody Garbrandt eats 1.6 fewer strikes per minute
  • Adrian Yanez out-volumes opponents at 5.9 sig/min vs Cody Garbrandt's 2.8
Method Breakdown
Garbrandt Yanez
KO/TKO 9.0
36.3
Submission 1.7
5.5
Decision 18.8
28.7
Finish Distribution · By Round
31
R1
16
R2
3
R3
47
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Garbrandt Yanez
Str/min 2.8
5.9
Sig Acc 40%
41%
Str Def 59%
56%
TD/min 0.06
0.00
Finish 65%
70%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
44
47
GarbrandtYanez
Combined 84 17–142
Takedowns
0.0
0.0
GarbrandtYanez
Combined 0.3 0.0–3.6
Fight length
Expected 2.0 of 3 rounds 49% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Yanez

    Adrian Yanez lands 3.1 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Garbrandt

    Cody Garbrandt eats 1.6 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 Win streak favours Garbrandt

    Cody Garbrandt rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 04 Loss streak favours Garbrandt

    Cody Garbrandt comes in on a 2-fight cleaner skid

  • 05 KO rate favours Yanez

    Adrian Yanez finishes by KO 11% more often

  • 06 Takedown volume favours Garbrandt

    Cody Garbrandt hits 0.06 more takedowns per minute

Value Bets · SportsBet 1 flagged · 2 markets analysed
  • Cody Garbrandt wins
    Solid edge
    Model 29%
    Bookies 24%
    EV / $100 +$22
    Stake 1.8%
    4.15
    $18 returns $75
    +$57 profit
Kai Kamaka III
Kai Kamaka III
United States 18-7-1 Boxing Orthodox 1 win
SB 3.45
30% | 70%
Featherweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 9:15 AM AEST
Luke Riley
Luke Riley
England 13-0-0 Striker nan 2-fight win streak
SB 1.30
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Luke Riley
69.7 %
050100
90% CI · 40 – 98 · σ 0.068 · High
Why this pick
  • Luke Riley eats 3.7 fewer strikes per minute
  • Luke Riley finishes 50% more of their wins
  • Luke Riley finishes by KO 50% more often
  • the case against Kai Kamaka III lands 1.4 more sig strikes per minute
  • Kai Kamaka III out-volumes opponents at 7.0 sig/min vs Luke Riley's 5.6
Method Breakdown
III Riley
KO/TKO 11.3
10.6
Submission 0.2
2.2
Decision 18.9
57.0
Finish Distribution · By Round
11
R1
10
R2
4
R3
76
DEC
Key Stats career avg
III Riley
Str/min 7.0
5.6
Sig Acc 66%
57%
Str Def 59%
65%
TD/min 0.00
0.00
Finish 0%
50%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
50
61
IIIRiley
Combined 106 20–166
Takedowns
0.0
0.0
IIIRiley
Combined 0.8 0.0–4.0
Fight length
Expected 2.6 of 3 rounds 75% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Riley

    Luke Riley eats 3.7 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours III

    Kai Kamaka III lands 1.4 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Finish rate favours Riley

    Luke Riley finishes 50% more of their wins

  • 04 KO rate favours Riley

    Luke Riley finishes by KO 50% more often

  • 05 Win streak favours Riley

    Luke Riley rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 06 Takedown defence favours III

    Kai Kamaka III stuffs 29% more incoming takedowns

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed
No markets passed the empirical-ROI gate. 2 markets analysed.
Wang Cong
Wang Cong
China 9-1-0 Striker Southpaw 3-fight win streak
SB 1.84
53% | 47%
Women's Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 8:40 AM AEST
Tracy Cortez
Tracy Cortez
United States 12-3-0 MMA Orthodox 1 loss
SB 1.96
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Wang Cong
53.1 %
050100
90% CI · 23 – 83 · σ 0.079 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Wang Cong rides a 3-fight longer win streak
  • Wang Cong lands 2.4 more sig strikes per minute
  • Wang Cong eats 0.8 fewer strikes per minute
  • Wang Cong rides a 3-fight win streak (Tracy Cortez: 0)
Method Breakdown
Cong Cortez
KO/TKO 6.7
8.6
Submission 3.8
5.1
Decision 42.6
33.2
Finish Distribution · By Round
12
R1
8
R2
4
R3
76
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Cong Cortez
Str/min 6.2
3.8
Sig Acc 56%
48%
Str Def 63%
58%
TD/min 0.04
0.13
Finish 40%
12%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
57
52
CongCortez
Combined 110 22–159
Takedowns
0.1
1.4
CongCortez
Combined 1.6 0.0–4.9
Fight length
Expected 2.6 of 3 rounds 76% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Cong

    Wang Cong rides a 3-fight longer win streak

  • 02 Striking volume favours Cong

    Wang Cong lands 2.4 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Strikes absorbed favours Cong

    Wang Cong eats 0.8 fewer strikes per minute

  • 04 Finish rate favours Cong

    Wang Cong finishes 28% more of their wins

  • 05 KO rate favours Cong

    Wang Cong finishes by KO 20% more often

  • 06 Takedown defence favours Cong

    Wang Cong stuffs 26% more incoming takedowns

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed
No markets passed the empirical-ROI gate. 2 markets analysed.
Cesar Almeida
Cesar Almeida
Brazil 7-2-0 Striker Orthodox 1 loss
SB 2.65
20% | 80%
Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 8:15 AM AEST
Damian Pinas
Damian Pinas
9-1-0 MMA Orthodox 1 win
SB 1.46
Breakdown ▼
1 value bet on SportsBet
Model Favourite
Damian Pinas
80.5 %
050100
90% CI · 50 – 98 · σ 0.076 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Damian Pinas lands 2.9 more sig strikes per minute
  • Damian Pinas eats 0.9 fewer strikes per minute
  • Damian Pinas finishes 60% more of their wins
  • Damian Pinas out-volumes opponents at 6.0 sig/min vs Cesar Almeida's 3.1
Method Breakdown
Almeida Pinas
KO/TKO 9.1
31.4
Submission 1.3
6.5
Decision 9.1
42.5
Finish Distribution · By Round
24
R1
15
R2
8
R3
52
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Almeida Pinas
Str/min 3.1
6.0
Sig Acc 58%
65%
Str Def 46%
77%
TD/min 0.00
0.00
Finish 40%
100%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
26
43
AlmeidaPinas
Combined 73 19–130
Takedowns
0.0
0.2
AlmeidaPinas
Combined 1.2 0.0–4.1
Fight length
Expected 2.1 of 3 rounds 52% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Pinas

    Damian Pinas lands 2.9 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Pinas

    Damian Pinas eats 0.9 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 Finish rate favours Pinas

    Damian Pinas finishes 60% more of their wins

  • 04 KO rate favours Pinas

    Damian Pinas finishes by KO 60% more often

  • 05 Win streak favours Pinas

    Damian Pinas rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 06 Takedown defence favours Pinas

    Damian Pinas stuffs 53% more incoming takedowns

Value Bets · SportsBet 1 flagged · 2 markets analysed
  • Damian Pinas wins
    Strong edge
    Model 80%
    Bookies 68%
    EV / $100 +$17
    Stake 9.5%
    1.46
    $95 returns $139
    +$44 profit
Ethyn Ewing
Ethyn Ewing
United States 10-2-0 MMA nan 2-fight win streak
40% | 60%
Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 7:00 AM AEST
Farid Basharat
Farid Basharat
15-0-0 MMA Orthodox 6-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Farid Basharat
59.6 %
050100
90% CI · 30 – 90 · σ 0.084 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Farid Basharat rides a 4-fight longer win streak
  • Farid Basharat eats 1.4 fewer strikes per minute
  • the case against Ethyn Ewing lands 2.5 more sig strikes per minute
  • Farid Basharat rides a 6-fight win streak (Ethyn Ewing: 2)
Method Breakdown
Ewing Basharat
KO/TKO 12.8
12.9
Submission 3.9
11.0
Decision 23.7
35.7
Finish Distribution · By Round
20
R1
11
R2
9
R3
59
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Ewing Basharat
Str/min 6.1
3.6
Sig Acc 45%
48%
Str Def 63%
62%
TD/min 0.09
0.23
Finish 41%
17%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
41
44
EwingBasharat
Combined 90 19–148
Takedowns
0.4
1.4
EwingBasharat
Combined 1.8 0.0–4.4
Fight length
Expected 2.3 of 3 rounds 59% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Basharat

    Farid Basharat rides a 4-fight longer win streak

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Basharat

    Farid Basharat eats 1.4 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 Striking volume favours Ewing

    Ethyn Ewing lands 2.5 more sig strikes per minute

  • 04 KO rate favours Ewing

    Ethyn Ewing finishes by KO 41% more often

  • 05 Finish rate favours Ewing

    Ethyn Ewing finishes 24% more of their wins

  • 06 Takedown defence favours Ewing

    Ethyn Ewing stuffs 45% more incoming takedowns

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
ZR
Zachary Reese
United States 10-3-0
— | —
No model pick
Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 7:00 AM AEST
Ryan Gandra
Ryan Gandra
Brazil 9-1-0 MMA Orthodox 1 win
Breakdown ▼
⟁ No model pick — one fighter has no fight-record data in any source (typically a promotional debut), so the model has no features to price this bout. Career stats below where available.

Fighter Statistics

ReeseGandra
Career record 10-3-0 9-1-0
Last 3 win % — 100%
Finish rate — 100%
KO/TKO rate — 100%
Sub rate — 0%
Sig strikes / min ↑ — 20.5

Predicted Outcomes

The model only prices a bout when both fighters have a fight history to build features from. One corner here has no data in any source, so there is no win probability or method breakdown to show.

Tip: the career stats on the left are pulled from UFC.com where available — use KO/TKO vs sub rate to gauge likely method.

Cody Durden
Cody Durden
United States 18-10-1 Striker Southpaw 1 win
SB 3.02
42% | 58%
Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 7:05 AM AEST
Alessandro Costa
Alessandro Costa
Brazil 15-5-0 Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 1 win
SB 1.37
Breakdown ▼
1 value bet on SportsBet
Model Favourite
Alessandro Costa
58.2 %
050100
90% CI · 28 – 88 · σ 0.103 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Alessandro Costa finishes by KO 65% more often
  • Alessandro Costa finishes 33% more of their wins
  • Alessandro Costa lands 0.7 more sig strikes per minute
  • the case against Cody Durden hits 0.20 more takedowns per minute
  • Cody Durden has never been finished in 16 fights
Method Breakdown
Durden Costa
KO/TKO 11.2
27.3
Submission 7.6
9.4
Decision 23.0
21.5
Finish Distribution · By Round
22
R1
22
R2
8
R3
45
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Durden Costa
Str/min 3.2
3.9
Sig Acc 45%
48%
Str Def 51%
53%
TD/min 0.27
0.07
Finish 50%
83%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
31
27
DurdenCosta
Combined 61 17–134
Takedowns
1.1
0.0
DurdenCosta
Combined 2.0 0.0–5.1
Fight length
Expected 2.1 of 3 rounds 47% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 KO rate favours Costa

    Alessandro Costa finishes by KO 65% more often

  • 02 Finish rate favours Costa

    Alessandro Costa finishes 33% more of their wins

  • 03 Striking volume favours Costa

    Alessandro Costa lands 0.7 more sig strikes per minute

  • 04 Takedown volume favours Durden

    Cody Durden hits 0.20 more takedowns per minute

  • 05 Takedown defence favours Costa

    Alessandro Costa stuffs 27% more incoming takedowns

  • 06 Strikes absorbed favours Costa

    Alessandro Costa eats 0.1 fewer strikes per minute

Value Bets · SportsBet 1 flagged · 2 markets analysed
  • Cody Durden wins
    Strong edge
    Model 42%
    Bookies 33%
    EV / $100 +$26
    Stake 3.2%
    3.02
    $32 returns $97
    +$65 profit
Kamaru Usman
Usman
Main Event
72%
Model Leans Plessis
2026-07-18
Dricus Du Plessis
Plessis
UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman
2026
18
JUL
UPCOMING CARD

UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman

Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, USA
11
Bouts
Kamaru Usman
Kamaru Usman
Nigeria 21-4-0 Freestyle Switch Stance 1 win
SB 3.50
28% | 72%
Middleweight 5 rds
⏱ Sun 19 Jul · 12:45 PM AEST
Dricus Du Plessis
Dricus Du Plessis
South Africa 23-3-0 MMA Switch Stance 1 loss
SB 1.29
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Dricus Du Plessis
72.3 %
050100
90% CI · 42 – 98 · σ 0.063 · High
Why this pick
  • Dricus Du Plessis lands 1.0 more sig strikes per minute
  • Dricus Du Plessis finishes 28% more of their wins
  • Dricus Du Plessis taps opponents 15% more often
  • the case against Kamaru Usman eats 1.7 fewer strikes per minute
  • Dricus Du Plessis has never been finished in 10 fights
Method Breakdown
Usman Plessis
KO/TKO 11.9
17.0
Submission 1.3
38.3
Decision 14.5
17.0
Finish Distribution · By Round
23
R1
20
R2
15
R3
7
R4
3
R5
31
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Usman Plessis
Str/min 4.2
5.2
Sig Acc 52%
49%
Str Def 55%
53%
TD/min 0.19
0.15
Finish 32%
60%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
71
56
UsmanPlessis
Combined 124 22–225
Takedowns
1.2
0.0
UsmanPlessis
Combined 1.7 0.0–5.2
Fight length
Expected 2.8 of 5 rounds 32% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Usman

    Kamaru Usman eats 1.7 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Plessis

    Dricus Du Plessis lands 1.0 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Win streak favours Usman

    Kamaru Usman rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 04 Finish rate favours Plessis

    Dricus Du Plessis finishes 28% more of their wins

  • 05 Takedown defence favours Usman

    Kamaru Usman stuffs 55% more incoming takedowns

  • 06 Submission rate favours Plessis

    Dricus Du Plessis taps opponents 15% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed
No markets passed the empirical-ROI gate. 2 markets analysed.
Jared Cannonier
Jared Cannonier
United States 18-9-0 Striker Switch Stance 1 loss
11% | 89%
Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 19 Jul · 10:00 AM AEST
Christian Leroy Duncan
Christian Leroy Duncan
United Kingdom 14-2-0 MMA Switch Stance 4-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Christian Leroy Duncan
89.4 %
050100
90% CI · 59 – 98 · σ 0.082 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Christian Leroy Duncan eats 1.8 fewer strikes per minute
  • Christian Leroy Duncan rides a 4-fight longer win streak
  • Christian Leroy Duncan is 8% more accurate on the feet
  • Christian Leroy Duncan rides a 4-fight win streak (Jared Cannonier: 0)
Method Breakdown
Cannonier Duncan
KO/TKO 3.1
27.2
Submission 1.0
6.3
Decision 6.5
55.9
Finish Distribution · By Round
18
R1
13
R2
7
R3
62
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Cannonier Duncan
Str/min 4.4
4.4
Sig Acc 50%
58%
Str Def 56%
53%
TD/min 0.04
0.02
Finish 50%
56%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
43
58
CannonierDuncan
Combined 97 22–152
Takedowns
0.3
0.1
CannonierDuncan
Combined 0.7 0.0–3.8
Fight length
Expected 2.3 of 3 rounds 62% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Duncan

    Christian Leroy Duncan eats 1.8 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Duncan

    Christian Leroy Duncan rides a 4-fight longer win streak

  • 03 Striking accuracy favours Duncan

    Christian Leroy Duncan is 8% more accurate on the feet

  • 04 Finish rate favours Duncan

    Christian Leroy Duncan finishes 6% more of their wins

  • 05 Loss streak favours Duncan

    Christian Leroy Duncan comes in on a 1-fight cleaner skid

  • 06 KO rate favours Duncan

    Christian Leroy Duncan finishes by KO 6% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Kevin Holland
Kevin Holland
United States 29-15-0 Kung Fu Orthodox 1 win
51% | 49%
Welterweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 19 Jul · 10:00 AM AEST
Jacobe Smith
Jacobe Smith
United States 12-0-0 Freestyle Southpaw 3-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Kevin Holland
51.3 %
050100
90% CI · 21 – 81 · σ 0.105 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Kevin Holland eats 0.3 fewer strikes per minute
  • the case against Jacobe Smith lands 1.9 more sig strikes per minute
  • Kevin Holland has a 26-fight UFC experience edge (29 vs 3)
Method Breakdown
Holland Smith
KO/TKO 26.1
17.6
Submission 8.7
10.7
Decision 16.5
20.4
Finish Distribution · By Round
32
R1
20
R2
10
R3
37
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Holland Smith
Str/min 4.2
6.0
Sig Acc 50%
56%
Str Def 50%
46%
TD/min 0.06
0.26
Finish 55%
88%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
30
27
HollandSmith
Combined 63 19–137
Takedowns
0.2
1.6
HollandSmith
Combined 2.1 0.0–4.8
Fight length
Expected 1.8 of 3 rounds 37% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Smith

    Jacobe Smith lands 1.9 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Smith

    Jacobe Smith rides a 2-fight longer win streak

  • 03 Finish rate favours Smith

    Jacobe Smith finishes 33% more of their wins

  • 04 KO rate favours Smith

    Jacobe Smith finishes by KO 35% more often

  • 05 Strikes absorbed favours Holland

    Kevin Holland eats 0.3 fewer strikes per minute

  • 06 Takedown volume favours Smith

    Jacobe Smith hits 0.21 more takedowns per minute

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Chase Hooper
Chase Hooper
United States 16-5-1 Grappler Southpaw 2-fight loss streak
100% | 0%
Lightweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 19 Jul · 10:00 AM AEST
Mitch Ramirez
Mitch Ramirez
United States 8-3-0 MMA Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Chase Hooper
100.0 %
050100
90% CI · 86 – 98 · σ 0.000 · High
Why this pick
  • Chase Hooper lands 1.5 more sig strikes per minute
  • Chase Hooper eats 0.6 fewer strikes per minute
  • Chase Hooper taps opponents 31% more often
  • the case against Mitch Ramirez finishes by KO 44% more often
  • Chase Hooper out-volumes opponents at 4.4 sig/min vs Mitch Ramirez's 2.8
Method Breakdown
Hooper Ramirez
KO/TKO 15.7
0.0
Submission 59.4
0.0
Decision 24.9
0.0
Finish Distribution · By Round
44
R1
20
R2
11
R3
25
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Hooper Ramirez
Str/min 4.4
2.8
Sig Acc 48%
35%
Str Def 41%
38%
TD/min 0.18
0.00
Finish 69%
82%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
28
23
HooperRamirez
Combined 53 10–124
Takedowns
1.6
0.0
HooperRamirez
Combined 2.4 0.0–5.2
Fight length
Expected 1.5 of 3 rounds 25% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Hooper

    Chase Hooper lands 1.5 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Hooper

    Chase Hooper eats 0.6 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 KO rate favours Ramirez

    Mitch Ramirez finishes by KO 44% more often

  • 04 Submission rate favours Hooper

    Chase Hooper taps opponents 31% more often

  • 05 Takedown volume favours Hooper

    Chase Hooper hits 0.18 more takedowns per minute

  • 06 Finish rate favours Ramirez

    Mitch Ramirez finishes 13% more of their wins

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Tabatha Ricci
Tabatha Ricci
Brazil 12-4-0 Judo Orthodox 1 loss
30% | 70%
Women's Strawweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 19 Jul · 10:00 AM AEST
Fatima Kline
Fatima Kline
United States 9-1-0 Grappler Orthodox 3-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Fatima Kline
69.6 %
050100
90% CI · 40 – 98 · σ 0.072 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Fatima Kline eats 2.1 fewer strikes per minute
  • Fatima Kline rides a 3-fight longer win streak
  • Fatima Kline lands 1.0 more sig strikes per minute
  • Fatima Kline rides a 3-fight win streak (Tabatha Ricci: 0)
Method Breakdown
Ricci Kline
KO/TKO 1.5
7.3
Submission 6.7
6.3
Decision 22.3
56.0
Finish Distribution · By Round
10
R1
7
R2
4
R3
78
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Ricci Kline
Str/min 4.0
5.0
Sig Acc 37%
50%
Str Def 58%
57%
TD/min 0.17
0.13
Finish 27%
50%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
49
55
RicciKline
Combined 105 22–179
Takedowns
1.2
0.3
RicciKline
Combined 2.3 0.0–5.6
Fight length
Expected 2.6 of 3 rounds 78% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Kline

    Fatima Kline eats 2.1 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Kline

    Fatima Kline rides a 3-fight longer win streak

  • 03 Striking volume favours Kline

    Fatima Kline lands 1.0 more sig strikes per minute

  • 04 KO rate favours Kline

    Fatima Kline finishes by KO 32% more often

  • 05 Finish rate favours Kline

    Fatima Kline finishes 23% more of their wins

  • 06 Striking accuracy favours Kline

    Fatima Kline is 13% more accurate on the feet

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Alberto Montes
Alberto Montes
Venezuela 12-1-0 Striker Orthodox 1 win
38% | 62%
Featherweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 19 Jul · 10:00 AM AEST
Tommy McMillen
Tommy McMillen
United States 10-0-0 MMA Orthodox 1 win
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Tommy McMillen
62.3 %
050100
90% CI · 32 – 92 · σ 0.070 · High
Why this pick
  • Tommy McMillen lands 9.9 more sig strikes per minute
  • Tommy McMillen finishes by KO 76% more often
  • Tommy McMillen avoids 4% more incoming strikes
  • the case against Alberto Montes eats 1.2 fewer strikes per minute
  • Tommy McMillen out-volumes opponents at 14.2 sig/min vs Alberto Montes's 4.3
Method Breakdown
Montes McMillen
KO/TKO 8.7
18.5
Submission 8.2
5.8
Decision 20.7
38.0
Finish Distribution · By Round
24
R1
12
R2
6
R3
59
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Montes McMillen
Str/min 4.3
14.2
Sig Acc 42%
42%
Str Def 63%
67%
TD/min 0.00
0.00
Finish 76%
76%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
28
40
MontesMcMillen
Combined 71 17–160
Takedowns
0.1
0.0
MontesMcMillen
Combined 1.0 0.0–4.3
Fight length
Expected 2.2 of 3 rounds 59% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours McMillen

    Tommy McMillen lands 9.9 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Montes

    Alberto Montes eats 1.2 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 KO rate favours McMillen

    Tommy McMillen finishes by KO 76% more often

  • 04 Submission rate favours Montes

    Alberto Montes taps opponents 76% more often

  • 05 Striking defence favours McMillen

    Tommy McMillen avoids 4% more incoming strikes

  • 06 Control time favours Montes

    Alberto Montes controls 3% more cage time

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Veronica Hardy
Veronica Hardy
Venezuela 10-5-1 MMA Southpaw 1 win
47% | 53%
Women's Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 19 Jul · 7:00 AM AEST
Dione Barbosa
Dione Barbosa
Brazil 9-4-0 Grappler Orthodox 1 win
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Dione Barbosa
53.0 %
050100
90% CI · 23 – 83 · σ 0.061 · High
Why this pick
  • Dione Barbosa eats 0.7 fewer strikes per minute
  • Dione Barbosa hits 0.10 more takedowns per minute
  • Dione Barbosa avoids 14% more incoming strikes
  • the case against Veronica Hardy lands 0.8 more sig strikes per minute
  • Dione Barbosa has never been finished in 5 fights
Method Breakdown
Hardy Barbosa
KO/TKO 14.3
8.1
Submission 4.2
10.0
Decision 28.4
34.9
Finish Distribution · By Round
15
R1
13
R2
9
R3
63
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Hardy Barbosa
Str/min 3.1
2.3
Sig Acc 46%
45%
Str Def 50%
64%
TD/min 0.05
0.16
Finish 30%
20%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
34
36
HardyBarbosa
Combined 68 20–125
Takedowns
0.0
1.6
HardyBarbosa
Combined 2.0 0.0–4.8
Fight length
Expected 2.4 of 3 rounds 63% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Barbosa

    Dione Barbosa eats 0.7 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Hardy

    Veronica Hardy lands 0.8 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Takedown volume favours Barbosa

    Dione Barbosa hits 0.10 more takedowns per minute

  • 04 Finish rate favours Hardy

    Veronica Hardy finishes 10% more of their wins

  • 05 Striking defence favours Barbosa

    Dione Barbosa avoids 14% more incoming strikes

  • 06 KO rate favours Hardy

    Veronica Hardy finishes by KO 10% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Austin Bashi
Austin Bashi
United States 14-1-0 Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 1 win
49% | 51%
Featherweight 3 rds
Jose Delgado
Jose Delgado
United States 10-2-0 Switch Stance 1 win
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Jose Delgado
50.5 %
050100
90% CI · 21 – 81 · σ 0.096 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Jose Delgado lands 6.1 more sig strikes per minute
  • Jose Delgado finishes by KO 47% more often
  • Jose Delgado is 18% more accurate on the feet
  • the case against Austin Bashi eats 2.7 fewer strikes per minute
  • Jose Delgado out-volumes opponents at 7.2 sig/min vs Austin Bashi's 1.1
Method Breakdown
Bashi Delgado
KO/TKO 9.9
17.1
Submission 15.1
6.9
Decision 24.4
26.5
Finish Distribution · By Round
24
R1
14
R2
11
R3
51
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Bashi Delgado
Str/min 1.1
7.2
Sig Acc 36%
54%
Str Def 49%
51%
TD/min 0.18
0.03
Finish 41%
47%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
28
34
BashiDelgado
Combined 71 19–133
Takedowns
1.8
0.2
BashiDelgado
Combined 2.1 0.0–4.9
Fight length
Expected 2.1 of 3 rounds 51% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Delgado

    Jose Delgado lands 6.1 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Bashi

    Austin Bashi eats 2.7 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 KO rate favours Delgado

    Jose Delgado finishes by KO 47% more often

  • 04 Submission rate favours Bashi

    Austin Bashi taps opponents 41% more often

  • 05 Striking accuracy favours Delgado

    Jose Delgado is 18% more accurate on the feet

  • 06 Takedown volume favours Bashi

    Austin Bashi hits 0.15 more takedowns per minute

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Alvin Hines
Alvin Hines
United States 7-1-0 MMA Orthodox 1 loss
27% | 73%
Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 19 Jul · 7:00 AM AEST
Allen Frye Jr.
Allen Frye Jr.
United States 6-1-0 nan 1 loss
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Allen Frye Jr.
73.4 %
050100
90% CI · 43 – 98 · σ 0.059 · High
Why this pick
  • Allen Frye Jr. eats 3.2 fewer strikes per minute
  • Allen Frye Jr. controls 52% more cage time
  • Allen Frye Jr. is 7% more accurate on the feet
  • the case against Alvin Hines lands 3.3 more sig strikes per minute
  • Alvin Hines out-volumes opponents at 5.5 sig/min vs Allen Frye Jr.'s 2.2
Method Breakdown
Hines Jr.
KO/TKO 11.2
42.3
Submission 4.4
4.2
Decision 11.1
26.9
Finish Distribution · By Round
35
R1
17
R2
10
R3
38
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Hines Jr.
Str/min 5.5
2.2
Sig Acc 32%
38%
Str Def 38%
36%
TD/min 0.07
0.00
Finish 0%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
37
36
HinesJr.
Combined 66 17–135
Takedowns
0.3
0.1
HinesJr.
Combined 0.8 0.0–4.3
Fight length
Expected 1.8 of 3 rounds 38% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Jr.

    Allen Frye Jr. eats 3.2 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Hines

    Alvin Hines lands 3.3 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Control time favours Jr.

    Allen Frye Jr. controls 52% more cage time

  • 04 Takedown volume favours Hines

    Alvin Hines hits 0.07 more takedowns per minute

  • 05 Striking accuracy favours Jr.

    Allen Frye Jr. is 7% more accurate on the feet

  • 06 Striking defence favours Hines

    Alvin Hines avoids 2% more incoming strikes

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Felipe Franco
Felipe Franco
Brazil 10-1-0 MMA Orthodox 1 loss
48% | 52%
Light Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 19 Jul · 7:00 AM AEST
LJ
Levi Rodrigues Jr.
Brazil 1-0-0 nan
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Levi Rodrigues Jr.
52.4 %
050100
90% CI · 22 – 82 · σ 0.092 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Levi Rodrigues Jr. comes in on a 1-fight cleaner skid
  • Felipe Franco has never been finished in 1 fights
Method Breakdown
Franco Jr.
KO/TKO 16.8
19.3
Submission 11.8
4.1
Decision 19.0
29.1
Finish Distribution · By Round
29
R1
15
R2
8
R3
48
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Franco Jr.
Str/min 1.1
0.0
Sig Acc 27%
0%
Str Def 41%
0%
TD/min 0.00
0.00
Finish 0%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
25
29
FrancoJr.
Combined 53 15–126
Takedowns
0.1
0.1
FrancoJr.
Combined 1.3 0.0–4.6
Fight length
Expected 2.0 of 3 rounds 48% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Loss streak favours Jr.

    Levi Rodrigues Jr. comes in on a 1-fight cleaner skid

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Alden Coria
Alden Coria
United States 12-3-0 Freestyle Orthodox 2-fight win streak
87% | 13%
Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 19 Jul · 7:00 AM AEST
Stewart Nicoll
Stewart Nicoll
8-3-0 Grappler Orthodox 3-fight loss streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Alden Coria
86.7 %
050100
90% CI · 57 – 98 · σ 0.090 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Alden Coria eats 3.4 fewer strikes per minute
  • Alden Coria rides a 2-fight longer win streak
  • Alden Coria lands 0.7 more sig strikes per minute
  • the case against Stewart Nicoll finishes 18% more of their wins
  • Alden Coria has never been finished in 2 fights
Method Breakdown
Coria Nicoll
KO/TKO 18.5
0.1
Submission 9.6
3.1
Decision 58.6
10.2
Finish Distribution · By Round
17
R1
10
R2
4
R3
69
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Coria Nicoll
Str/min 3.8
3.2
Sig Acc 37%
35%
Str Def 70%
50%
TD/min 0.10
0.10
Finish 41%
59%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
44
29
CoriaNicoll
Combined 76 15–130
Takedowns
0.9
0.1
CoriaNicoll
Combined 1.6 0.0–4.5
Fight length
Expected 2.4 of 3 rounds 69% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Coria

    Alden Coria eats 3.4 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Coria

    Alden Coria rides a 2-fight longer win streak

  • 03 Striking volume favours Coria

    Alden Coria lands 0.7 more sig strikes per minute

  • 04 Takedown defence favours Coria

    Alden Coria stuffs 43% more incoming takedowns

  • 05 Finish rate favours Nicoll

    Stewart Nicoll finishes 18% more of their wins

  • 06 Loss streak favours Coria

    Alden Coria comes in on a 3-fight cleaner skid

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Khalil Rountree Jr.
Jr.
Main Event
79%
Model Leans Ankalaev
2026-07-25
Magomed Ankalaev
Ankalaev
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Rountree Jr.
2026
25
JUL
UPCOMING CARD

UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Rountree Jr.

Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
9
Bouts
Khalil Rountree Jr.
Khalil Rountree Jr.
United States 15-7-0 MMA Southpaw 1 loss
SB 3.40
21% | 79%
Light Heavyweight 5 rds
⏱ Sun 26 Jul · 4:45 AM AEST
Magomed Ankalaev
Magomed Ankalaev
Russia 21-2-1 MMA Orthodox 1 loss
SB 1.30
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Magomed Ankalaev
79.1 %
050100
90% CI · 49 – 98 · σ 0.065 · High
Why this pick
  • Magomed Ankalaev eats 1.7 fewer strikes per minute
  • Magomed Ankalaev stuffs 29% more incoming takedowns
  • Magomed Ankalaev is 12% more accurate on the feet
  • the case against Khalil Rountree Jr. finishes 17% more of their wins
  • Khalil Rountree Jr. has never been finished in 18 fights
Method Breakdown
Jr. Ankalaev
KO/TKO 15.6
41.3
Submission 2.6
1.8
Decision 2.7
35.9
Finish Distribution · By Round
24
R1
18
R2
9
R3
6
R4
3
R5
39
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Jr. Ankalaev
Str/min 3.9
3.7
Sig Acc 41%
53%
Str Def 50%
56%
TD/min 0.00
0.05
Finish 67%
50%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
41
45
Jr.Ankalaev
Combined 97 19–210
Takedowns
0.0
0.2
Jr.Ankalaev
Combined 0.6 0.0–3.7
Fight length
Expected 3.0 of 5 rounds 40% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Ankalaev

    Magomed Ankalaev eats 1.7 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Finish rate favours Jr.

    Khalil Rountree Jr. finishes 17% more of their wins

  • 03 KO rate favours Jr.

    Khalil Rountree Jr. finishes by KO 17% more often

  • 04 Takedown defence favours Ankalaev

    Magomed Ankalaev stuffs 29% more incoming takedowns

  • 05 Striking accuracy favours Ankalaev

    Magomed Ankalaev is 12% more accurate on the feet

  • 06 Striking volume favours Jr.

    Khalil Rountree Jr. lands 0.2 more sig strikes per minute

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed
No markets passed the empirical-ROI gate. 2 markets analysed.
Ramazan Temirov
Ramazan Temirov
Uzbekistan 19-3-0 Striker Orthodox 2-fight win streak
63% | 37%
Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 26 Jul · 2:00 AM AEST
Steve Erceg
Steve Erceg
Australia 14-4-0 MMA Orthodox 2-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Ramazan Temirov
63.3 %
050100
90% CI · 33 – 93 · σ 0.042 · High
Why this pick
  • Ramazan Temirov finishes 25% more of their wins
  • Ramazan Temirov finishes by KO 25% more often
  • Ramazan Temirov stuffs 33% more incoming takedowns
  • the case against Steve Erceg lands 0.3 more sig strikes per minute
  • Ramazan Temirov has never been finished in 2 fights
Method Breakdown
Temirov Erceg
KO/TKO 19.7
5.0
Submission 0.1
10.6
Decision 43.5
21.1
Finish Distribution · By Round
18
R1
11
R2
6
R3
65
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Temirov Erceg
Str/min 4.4
4.6
Sig Acc 40%
48%
Str Def 59%
56%
TD/min 0.06
0.08
Finish 50%
25%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
53
55
TemirovErceg
Combined 110 22–165
Takedowns
0.0
0.2
TemirovErceg
Combined 0.8 0.0–3.9
Fight length
Expected 2.3 of 3 rounds 65% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Finish rate favours Temirov

    Ramazan Temirov finishes 25% more of their wins

  • 02 KO rate favours Temirov

    Ramazan Temirov finishes by KO 25% more often

  • 03 Takedown defence favours Temirov

    Ramazan Temirov stuffs 33% more incoming takedowns

  • 04 Strikes absorbed favours Temirov

    Ramazan Temirov eats 0.1 fewer strikes per minute

  • 05 Striking volume favours Erceg

    Steve Erceg lands 0.3 more sig strikes per minute

  • 06 Striking accuracy favours Erceg

    Steve Erceg is 7% more accurate on the feet

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Rizvan Kuniev
Rizvan Kuniev
Russia 12-3-1 Orthodox 1 win
28% | 72%
Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 26 Jul · 2:00 AM AEST
Tyrell Fortune
Tyrell Fortune
United States 18-3-0 nan 1 win
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Tyrell Fortune
71.7 %
050100
90% CI · 42 – 98 · σ 0.044 · High
Why this pick
  • Tyrell Fortune hits 0.20 more takedowns per minute
  • Tyrell Fortune is 7% more accurate on the feet
  • Tyrell Fortune avoids 11% more incoming strikes
  • the case against Rizvan Kuniev lands 0.9 more sig strikes per minute
  • Rizvan Kuniev has never been finished in 2 fights
Method Breakdown
Kuniev Fortune
KO/TKO 8.0
18.4
Submission 3.2
4.3
Decision 17.0
49.0
Finish Distribution · By Round
18
R1
10
R2
6
R3
66
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Kuniev Fortune
Str/min 2.9
2.0
Sig Acc 44%
51%
Str Def 46%
57%
TD/min 0.00
0.20
Finish 0%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
22
29
KunievFortune
Combined 55 18–117
Takedowns
0.3
0.9
KunievFortune
Combined 1.5 0.0–4.6
Fight length
Expected 2.4 of 3 rounds 66% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Kuniev

    Rizvan Kuniev lands 0.9 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Takedown volume favours Fortune

    Tyrell Fortune hits 0.20 more takedowns per minute

  • 03 Strikes absorbed favours Kuniev

    Rizvan Kuniev eats 0.2 fewer strikes per minute

  • 04 Striking accuracy favours Fortune

    Tyrell Fortune is 7% more accurate on the feet

  • 05 Striking defence favours Fortune

    Tyrell Fortune avoids 11% more incoming strikes

  • 06 Takedown defence favours Fortune

    Tyrell Fortune stuffs 9% more incoming takedowns

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Wellington Turman
Wellington Turman
Brazil 18-8-0 Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 3-fight loss streak
26% | 74%
Welterweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 26 Jul · 2:00 AM AEST
Islam Dulatov
Islam Dulatov
Russia 12-1-0 MMA Orthodox 1 win
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Islam Dulatov
73.7 %
050100
90% CI · 44 – 98 · σ 0.043 · High
Why this pick
  • Islam Dulatov lands 1.9 more sig strikes per minute
  • Islam Dulatov finishes by KO 78% more often
  • Islam Dulatov eats 0.8 fewer strikes per minute
  • layoff Turman hasn't fought since Dec 2023 — ring rust is hard to price, so the model widens its uncertainty here
  • Islam Dulatov out-volumes opponents at 5.1 sig/min vs Wellington Turman's 3.2
Method Breakdown
Turman Dulatov
KO/TKO 3.4
28.5
Submission 5.0
13.1
Decision 18.0
32.1
Finish Distribution · By Round
25
R1
16
R2
8
R3
50
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Turman Dulatov
Str/min 3.2
5.1
Sig Acc 51%
51%
Str Def 45%
48%
TD/min 0.10
0.00
Finish 44%
100%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
29
35
TurmanDulatov
Combined 71 16–144
Takedowns
0.7
0.0
TurmanDulatov
Combined 1.4 0.0–4.1
Fight length
Expected 2.1 of 3 rounds 50% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Dulatov

    Islam Dulatov lands 1.9 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 KO rate favours Dulatov

    Islam Dulatov finishes by KO 78% more often

  • 03 Strikes absorbed favours Dulatov

    Islam Dulatov eats 0.8 fewer strikes per minute

  • 04 Finish rate favours Dulatov

    Islam Dulatov finishes 56% more of their wins

  • 05 Win streak favours Dulatov

    Islam Dulatov rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 06 Takedown defence favours Dulatov

    Islam Dulatov stuffs 57% more incoming takedowns

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Ismael Bonfim
Ismael Bonfim
Brazil 20-6-0 Boxer Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
31% | 69%
Lightweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 26 Jul · 2:00 AM AEST
Axel Sola
Axel Sola
France 11-1-1 Karate Southpaw 1 loss
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Axel Sola
68.7 %
050100
90% CI · 39 – 98 · σ 0.094 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Axel Sola hits 0.08 more takedowns per minute
  • Axel Sola has been finished 60% less often
  • the case against Ismael Bonfim eats 1.3 fewer strikes per minute
  • Ismael Bonfim out-volumes opponents at 5.5 sig/min vs Axel Sola's 4.1
Method Breakdown
Bonfim Sola
KO/TKO 11.5
24.7
Submission 2.6
10.7
Decision 17.2
33.4
Finish Distribution · By Round
25
R1
16
R2
8
R3
51
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Bonfim Sola
Str/min 5.5
4.1
Sig Acc 55%
46%
Str Def 56%
61%
TD/min 0.07
0.15
Finish 80%
50%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
27
41
BonfimSola
Combined 65 16–148
Takedowns
0.1
0.2
BonfimSola
Combined 1.2 0.0–4.8
Fight length
Expected 2.1 of 3 rounds 51% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Bonfim

    Ismael Bonfim eats 1.3 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Bonfim

    Ismael Bonfim lands 1.4 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Finish rate favours Bonfim

    Ismael Bonfim finishes 30% more of their wins

  • 04 Takedown volume favours Sola

    Axel Sola hits 0.08 more takedowns per minute

  • 05 Striking accuracy favours Bonfim

    Ismael Bonfim is 9% more accurate on the feet

  • 06 Durability favours Sola

    Axel Sola has been finished 60% less often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Thomas Petersen
Thomas Petersen
United States 11-4-0 Boxer Southpaw 1 win
31% | 69%
Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 26 Jul · 2:00 AM AEST
Valter Walker
Valter Walker
Brazil 15-1-0 MMA Orthodox 4-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Valter Walker
68.8 %
050100
90% CI · 39 – 98 · σ 0.047 · High
Why this pick
  • Valter Walker rides a 3-fight longer win streak
  • Valter Walker taps opponents 80% more often
  • Valter Walker finishes 47% more of their wins
  • the case against Thomas Petersen lands 1.1 more sig strikes per minute
  • Valter Walker rides a 4-fight win streak (Thomas Petersen: 1)
Method Breakdown
Petersen Walker
KO/TKO 8.8
24.1
Submission 3.5
15.8
Decision 18.9
28.9
Finish Distribution · By Round
27
R1
17
R2
9
R3
48
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Petersen Walker
Str/min 3.1
2.0
Sig Acc 58%
52%
Str Def 56%
43%
TD/min 0.18
0.38
Finish 33%
80%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
21
15
PetersenWalker
Combined 38 14–101
Takedowns
0.8
0.7
PetersenWalker
Combined 2.0 0.0–5.1
Fight length
Expected 2.0 of 3 rounds 48% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Walker

    Valter Walker rides a 3-fight longer win streak

  • 02 Submission rate favours Walker

    Valter Walker taps opponents 80% more often

  • 03 Finish rate favours Walker

    Valter Walker finishes 47% more of their wins

  • 04 Striking volume favours Petersen

    Thomas Petersen lands 1.1 more sig strikes per minute

  • 05 KO rate favours Petersen

    Thomas Petersen finishes by KO 33% more often

  • 06 Takedown volume favours Walker

    Valter Walker hits 0.21 more takedowns per minute

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Dustin Jacoby
Dustin Jacoby
United States 22-9-1 Freestyle Orthodox 3-fight win streak
70% | 30%
Light Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sat 25 Jul · 11:00 PM AEST
Uran Satybaldiev
Uran Satybaldiev
Kyrgyzstan 8-1-0 MMA Orthodox 1 win
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Dustin Jacoby
70.5 %
050100
90% CI · 40 – 98 · σ 0.062 · High
Why this pick
  • Dustin Jacoby lands 3.7 more sig strikes per minute
  • Dustin Jacoby rides a 2-fight longer win streak
  • Dustin Jacoby finishes by KO 47% more often
  • the case against Uran Satybaldiev eats 0.5 fewer strikes per minute
  • Dustin Jacoby out-volumes opponents at 5.4 sig/min vs Uran Satybaldiev's 1.8
Method Breakdown
Jacoby Satybaldiev
KO/TKO 32.8
7.0
Submission 3.1
8.6
Decision 34.5
14.0
Finish Distribution · By Round
27
R1
16
R2
9
R3
49
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Jacoby Satybaldiev
Str/min 5.4
1.8
Sig Acc 46%
21%
Str Def 58%
45%
TD/min 0.02
0.00
Finish 53%
41%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
42
27
JacobySatybaldiev
Combined 80 19–158
Takedowns
0.0
0.2
JacobySatybaldiev
Combined 0.7 0.0–3.8
Fight length
Expected 2.0 of 3 rounds 49% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Jacoby

    Dustin Jacoby lands 3.7 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Jacoby

    Dustin Jacoby rides a 2-fight longer win streak

  • 03 Strikes absorbed favours Satybaldiev

    Uran Satybaldiev eats 0.5 fewer strikes per minute

  • 04 KO rate favours Jacoby

    Dustin Jacoby finishes by KO 47% more often

  • 05 Submission rate favours Satybaldiev

    Uran Satybaldiev taps opponents 41% more often

  • 06 Striking accuracy favours Jacoby

    Dustin Jacoby is 25% more accurate on the feet

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Brendson Ribeiro
Brendson Ribeiro
Brazil 17-10-0 Striker Orthodox 3-fight loss streak
28% | 72%
Light Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sat 25 Jul · 11:00 PM AEST
MT
Magomed Tuchalov
Russia 0-0-0 nan
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Magomed Tuchalov
72.2 %
050100
90% CI · 42 – 98 · σ 0.052 · High
Why this pick
  • Magomed Tuchalov comes in on a 3-fight cleaner skid
  • Brendson Ribeiro has a 7-fight UFC experience edge (7 vs 0)
Method Breakdown
Ribeiro Tuchalov
KO/TKO 10.9
38.2
Submission 12.4
4.5
Decision 4.5
29.5
Finish Distribution · By Round
37
R1
19
R2
10
R3
34
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Ribeiro Tuchalov
Str/min 2.6
0.0
Sig Acc 42%
0%
Str Def 51%
0%
TD/min 0.06
0.00
Finish 71%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
20
31
RibeiroTuchalov
Combined 49 14–124
Takedowns
0.0
0.2
RibeiroTuchalov
Combined 1.2 0.0–4.4
Fight length
Expected 1.7 of 3 rounds 34% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Loss streak favours Tuchalov

    Magomed Tuchalov comes in on a 3-fight cleaner skid

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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David Martinez
David Martinez
Mexico 14-1-0 Orthodox 3-fight win streak
19% | 81%
Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Sat 25 Jul · 11:00 PM AEST
Umar Nurmagomedov
Umar Nurmagomedov
Russia 20-1-0 MMA Orthodox 2-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Umar Nurmagomedov
81.1 %
050100
90% CI · 51 – 98 · σ 0.063 · High
Why this pick
  • Umar Nurmagomedov eats 1.0 fewer strikes per minute
  • Umar Nurmagomedov hits 0.22 more takedowns per minute
  • Umar Nurmagomedov taps opponents 22% more often
  • the case against David Martinez rides a 1-fight longer win streak
  • Umar Nurmagomedov has never been finished in 9 fights
Method Breakdown
Martinez Nurmagomedov
KO/TKO 7.0
8.4
Submission 1.5
7.4
Decision 10.3
65.3
Finish Distribution · By Round
12
R1
8
R2
4
R3
76
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Martinez Nurmagomedov
Str/min 4.1
3.9
Sig Acc 40%
56%
Str Def 70%
61%
TD/min 0.05
0.27
Finish 29%
33%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
34
44
MartinezNurmagomedov
Combined 82 21–132
Takedowns
0.0
1.7
MartinezNurmagomedov
Combined 2.0 0.0–4.6
Fight length
Expected 2.6 of 3 rounds 76% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Nurmagomedov

    Umar Nurmagomedov eats 1.0 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Martinez

    David Martinez rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 03 Takedown volume favours Nurmagomedov

    Umar Nurmagomedov hits 0.22 more takedowns per minute

  • 04 Submission rate favours Nurmagomedov

    Umar Nurmagomedov taps opponents 22% more often

  • 05 Striking accuracy favours Nurmagomedov

    Umar Nurmagomedov is 16% more accurate on the feet

  • 06 KO rate favours Martinez

    David Martinez finishes by KO 18% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Daniel Rodriguez
Rodriguez
Main Event
69%
Model Leans Medic
2026-08-01
Uros Medic
Medic
UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez
2026
01
AUG
UPCOMING CARD

UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez

Belgrade Arena, Belgrade, Serbia
12
Bouts
Daniel Rodriguez
Daniel Rodriguez
United States 20-5-0 Freestyle Southpaw 3-fight win streak
31% | 69%
Welterweight 5 rds
⏱ Sun 2 Aug · 3:00 AM AEST
Uros Medic
Uros Medic
Serbia 13-3-0 MMA Southpaw 3-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Uros Medic
68.6 %
050100
90% CI · 39 – 98 · σ 0.064 · High
Why this pick
  • Uros Medic eats 1.8 fewer strikes per minute
  • Uros Medic finishes 57% more of their wins
  • Uros Medic finishes by KO 51% more often
  • the case against Daniel Rodriguez lands 2.1 more sig strikes per minute
  • Daniel Rodriguez out-volumes opponents at 7.2 sig/min vs Uros Medic's 5.1
Method Breakdown
Rodriguez Medic
KO/TKO 14.0
29.3
Submission 4.7
5.3
Decision 12.8
34.1
Finish Distribution · By Round
22
R1
16
R2
8
R3
5
R4
3
R5
47
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Rodriguez Medic
Str/min 7.2
5.1
Sig Acc 49%
57%
Str Def 57%
56%
TD/min 0.01
0.02
Finish 43%
100%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
43
46
RodriguezMedic
Combined 80 19–265
Takedowns
0.1
0.0
RodriguezMedic
Combined 0.6 0.0–3.8
Fight length
Expected 3.2 of 5 rounds 47% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Medic

    Uros Medic eats 1.8 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Rodriguez

    Daniel Rodriguez lands 2.1 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Finish rate favours Medic

    Uros Medic finishes 57% more of their wins

  • 04 KO rate favours Medic

    Uros Medic finishes by KO 51% more often

  • 05 Striking accuracy favours Medic

    Uros Medic is 8% more accurate on the feet

  • 06 Submission rate favours Rodriguez

    Daniel Rodriguez taps opponents 7% more often

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Ante Delija
Ante Delija
Croatia 26-8-0 MMA Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
33% | 67%
Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 2 Aug · 3:00 AM AEST
Johnny Walker
Johnny Walker
Brazil 22-10-0 MMA Orthodox 1 loss
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Johnny Walker
66.9 %
050100
90% CI · 37 – 97 · σ 0.050 · High
Why this pick
  • Johnny Walker eats 1.0 fewer strikes per minute
  • Johnny Walker is 15% more accurate on the feet
  • Johnny Walker comes in on a 1-fight cleaner skid
  • the case against Ante Delija lands 0.6 more sig strikes per minute
  • Johnny Walker has a 13-fight UFC experience edge (16 vs 3)
Method Breakdown
Delija Walker
KO/TKO 17.3
43.5
Submission 2.6
3.8
Decision 13.1
19.6
Finish Distribution · By Round
34
R1
22
R2
11
R3
33
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Delija Walker
Str/min 4.3
3.7
Sig Acc 38%
53%
Str Def 53%
49%
TD/min 0.00
0.02
Finish 67%
69%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
30
36
DelijaWalker
Combined 65 15–130
Takedowns
0.2
0.0
DelijaWalker
Combined 0.2 0.0–3.7
Fight length
Expected 1.8 of 3 rounds 33% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Walker

    Johnny Walker eats 1.0 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Delija

    Ante Delija lands 0.6 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Striking accuracy favours Walker

    Johnny Walker is 15% more accurate on the feet

  • 04 Takedown defence favours Delija

    Ante Delija stuffs 25% more incoming takedowns

  • 05 Loss streak favours Walker

    Johnny Walker comes in on a 1-fight cleaner skid

  • 06 Submission rate favours Walker

    Johnny Walker taps opponents 6% more often

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Marcin Tybura
Marcin Tybura
Poland 27-11-0 MMA Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
33% | 67%
Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 2 Aug · 3:00 AM AEST
Aleksandar Rakic
Aleksandar Rakic
6-5-0 Orthodox 4-fight loss streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Aleksandar Rakic
67.4 %
050100
90% CI · 37 – 97 · σ 0.052 · High
Why this pick
  • Aleksandar Rakic eats 0.4 fewer strikes per minute
  • Aleksandar Rakic lands 0.6 more sig strikes per minute
  • Aleksandar Rakic stuffs 15% more incoming takedowns
  • the case against Marcin Tybura comes in on a 2-fight cleaner skid
  • Marcin Tybura has never been finished in 24 fights
Method Breakdown
Tybura Rakic
KO/TKO 10.5
21.5
Submission 5.5
5.0
Decision 16.6
40.9
Finish Distribution · By Round
18
R1
17
R2
7
R3
58
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Tybura Rakic
Str/min 3.6
4.1
Sig Acc 48%
50%
Str Def 55%
51%
TD/min 0.09
0.04
Finish 50%
45%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
40
52
TyburaRakic
Combined 98 21–150
Takedowns
0.6
0.1
TyburaRakic
Combined 1.1 0.0–4.2
Fight length
Expected 2.3 of 3 rounds 58% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Rakic

    Aleksandar Rakic eats 0.4 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Rakic

    Aleksandar Rakic lands 0.6 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Loss streak favours Tybura

    Marcin Tybura comes in on a 2-fight cleaner skid

  • 04 Takedown defence favours Rakic

    Aleksandar Rakic stuffs 15% more incoming takedowns

  • 05 Takedown volume favours Tybura

    Marcin Tybura hits 0.04 more takedowns per minute

  • 06 Finish rate favours Tybura

    Marcin Tybura finishes 5% more of their wins

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Dusko Todorovic
Dusko Todorovic
13-6-0 MMA Orthodox 1 win
59% | 41%
Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 2 Aug · 3:00 AM AEST
RV
Robert Valentin
1-3-0 Orthodox 1 win
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Dusko Todorovic
59.0 %
050100
90% CI · 29 – 89 · σ 0.068 · High
Why this pick
  • Dusko Todorovic lands 3.1 more sig strikes per minute
  • Dusko Todorovic finishes by KO 23% more often
  • Dusko Todorovic hits 0.11 more takedowns per minute
  • the case against Robert Valentin eats 1.1 fewer strikes per minute
  • Dusko Todorovic out-volumes opponents at 4.3 sig/min vs Robert Valentin's 1.2
Method Breakdown
Todorovic Valentin
KO/TKO 26.2
11.8
Submission 8.8
12.8
Decision 24.0
16.4
Finish Distribution · By Round
35
R1
18
R2
7
R3
40
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Todorovic Valentin
Str/min 4.3
1.2
Sig Acc 54%
53%
Str Def 51%
33%
TD/min 0.14
0.04
Finish 80%
70%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
20
20
TodorovicValentin
Combined 45 12–111
Takedowns
1.1
0.2
TodorovicValentin
Combined 1.6 0.0–4.7
Fight length
Expected 1.8 of 3 rounds 40% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Todorovic

    Dusko Todorovic lands 3.1 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Valentin

    Robert Valentin eats 1.1 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 KO rate favours Todorovic

    Dusko Todorovic finishes by KO 23% more often

  • 04 Takedown volume favours Todorovic

    Dusko Todorovic hits 0.11 more takedowns per minute

  • 05 Striking defence favours Todorovic

    Dusko Todorovic avoids 18% more incoming strikes

  • 06 Submission rate favours Valentin

    Robert Valentin taps opponents 14% more often

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Gilbert Urbina
Gilbert Urbina
United States 7-5-0 MMA Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
50% | 50%
Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 2 Aug · 3:00 AM AEST
VC
Vlasto Cepo
Serbia 0-0-0 nan
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Vlasto Cepo
50.3 %
050100
90% CI · 20 – 80 · σ 0.080 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Vlasto Cepo comes in on a 2-fight cleaner skid
  • Gilbert Urbina out-volumes opponents at 5.2 sig/min vs Vlasto Cepo's 0.0
Method Breakdown
Urbina Cepo
KO/TKO 14.4
19.8
Submission 13.6
16.5
Decision 21.6
14.0
Finish Distribution · By Round
40
R1
16
R2
9
R3
36
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Urbina Cepo
Str/min 5.2
0.0
Sig Acc 53%
0%
Str Def 45%
0%
TD/min 0.18
0.00
Finish 94%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
22
21
UrbinaCepo
Combined 52 12–123
Takedowns
0.8
0.1
UrbinaCepo
Combined 2.0 0.0–4.7
Fight length
Expected 1.7 of 3 rounds 36% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Loss streak favours Cepo

    Vlasto Cepo comes in on a 2-fight cleaner skid

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Jan Blachowicz
Jan Blachowicz
12-10-0 Orthodox 4-fight loss streak
34% | 66%
Light Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 2 Aug · 3:00 AM AEST
Bogdan Guskov
Bogdan Guskov
Uzbekistan 18-3-0 MMA Orthodox 1 loss
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Bogdan Guskov
65.8 %
050100
90% CI · 36 – 96 · σ 0.072 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Bogdan Guskov finishes 42% more of their wins
  • Bogdan Guskov lands 1.0 more sig strikes per minute
  • Bogdan Guskov finishes by KO 23% more often
  • the case against Jan Blachowicz eats 0.9 fewer strikes per minute
  • Bogdan Guskov out-volumes opponents at 4.6 sig/min vs Jan Blachowicz's 3.6
Method Breakdown
Blachowicz Guskov
KO/TKO 11.5
39.1
Submission 7.8
5.5
Decision 15.0
21.2
Finish Distribution · By Round
27
R1
24
R2
12
R3
36
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Blachowicz Guskov
Str/min 3.6
4.6
Sig Acc 50%
56%
Str Def 52%
45%
TD/min 0.07
0.00
Finish 41%
83%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
37
37
BlachowiczGuskov
Combined 74 19–165
Takedowns
0.7
0.0
BlachowiczGuskov
Combined 0.8 0.0–3.8
Fight length
Expected 1.9 of 3 rounds 36% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Blachowicz

    Jan Blachowicz eats 0.9 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Finish rate favours Guskov

    Bogdan Guskov finishes 42% more of their wins

  • 03 Striking volume favours Guskov

    Bogdan Guskov lands 1.0 more sig strikes per minute

  • 04 KO rate favours Guskov

    Bogdan Guskov finishes by KO 23% more often

  • 05 Loss streak favours Guskov

    Bogdan Guskov comes in on a 3-fight cleaner skid

  • 06 Takedown volume favours Blachowicz

    Jan Blachowicz hits 0.07 more takedowns per minute

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JL
Jovan Leka
Serbia 1-0-0 nan
79% | 21%
Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 2 Aug · 12:00 AM AEST
Max Gimenis
Max Gimenis
Brazil 6-2-0 Jiu-Jitsu nan 1 loss
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Jovan Leka
78.7 %
050100
90% CI · 49 – 98 · σ 0.051 · High
Why this pick
  • Jovan Leka comes in on a 1-fight cleaner skid
  • Model uncertainty: ±5pp on the win probability
Method Breakdown
Leka Gimenis
KO/TKO 44.1
9.6
Submission 13.3
3.9
Decision 21.4
7.8
Finish Distribution · By Round
37
R1
22
R2
12
R3
29
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Leka Gimenis
Str/min 0.0
3.2
Sig Acc 0%
43%
Str Def 0%
47%
TD/min 0.00
0.00
Finish 0%
100%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
30
24
LekaGimenis
Combined 54 14–132
Takedowns
0.1
0.0
LekaGimenis
Combined 0.7 0.0–4.4
Fight length
Expected 1.7 of 3 rounds 29% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Loss streak favours Leka

    Jovan Leka comes in on a 1-fight cleaner skid

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Ludovit Klein
Ludovit Klein
Slovakia 24-5-1 Boxing Southpaw 1 win
70% | 30%
Lightweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 2 Aug · 12:00 AM AEST
Tofiq Musayev
Tofiq Musayev
Azerbaijan 23-6-0 Kickboxer Orthodox 1 win
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Ludovit Klein
70.2 %
050100
90% CI · 40 – 98 · σ 0.077 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Ludovit Klein lands 1.9 more sig strikes per minute
  • Ludovit Klein finishes by KO 17% more often
  • Ludovit Klein stuffs 26% more incoming takedowns
  • the case against Tofiq Musayev eats 1.7 fewer strikes per minute
  • Ludovit Klein has a 10-fight UFC experience edge (12 vs 2)
Method Breakdown
Klein Musayev
KO/TKO 15.8
7.3
Submission 16.9
3.0
Decision 37.5
19.5
Finish Distribution · By Round
15
R1
18
R2
10
R3
57
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Klein Musayev
Str/min 3.8
1.8
Sig Acc 54%
46%
Str Def 53%
51%
TD/min 0.09
0.15
Finish 25%
50%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
31
26
KleinMusayev
Combined 64 19–117
Takedowns
0.3
0.9
KleinMusayev
Combined 2.1 0.0–4.5
Fight length
Expected 2.3 of 3 rounds 57% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Musayev

    Tofiq Musayev eats 1.7 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Klein

    Ludovit Klein lands 1.9 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Finish rate favours Musayev

    Tofiq Musayev finishes 25% more of their wins

  • 04 KO rate favours Klein

    Ludovit Klein finishes by KO 17% more often

  • 05 Takedown defence favours Klein

    Ludovit Klein stuffs 26% more incoming takedowns

  • 06 Sub defence favours Klein

    Ludovit Klein has been submitted 42% less often

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Josias Musasa
Josias Musasa
8-2-0 Kickboxer Southpaw 2-fight loss streak
41% | 59%
Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 2 Aug · 12:00 AM AEST
Mark Vologdin
Mark Vologdin
Russia 12-4-2 Karate Orthodox 1 loss
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Mark Vologdin
58.6 %
050100
90% CI · 29 – 89 · σ 0.065 · High
Why this pick
  • Mark Vologdin lands 2.1 more sig strikes per minute
  • Mark Vologdin has been submitted 50% less often
  • Mark Vologdin has been finished 50% less often
  • the case against Josias Musasa eats 4.7 fewer strikes per minute
  • Mark Vologdin out-volumes opponents at 4.6 sig/min vs Josias Musasa's 2.5
Method Breakdown
Musasa Vologdin
KO/TKO 10.0
16.4
Submission 7.8
8.6
Decision 23.6
33.7
Finish Distribution · By Round
18
R1
12
R2
13
R3
57
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Musasa Vologdin
Str/min 2.5
4.6
Sig Acc 38%
32%
Str Def 42%
47%
TD/min 0.04
0.05
Finish 41%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
30
43
MusasaVologdin
Combined 77 19–142
Takedowns
0.0
0.1
MusasaVologdin
Combined 1.0 0.0–4.0
Fight length
Expected 2.3 of 3 rounds 57% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Musasa

    Josias Musasa eats 4.7 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Vologdin

    Mark Vologdin lands 2.1 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Finish rate favours Musasa

    Josias Musasa finishes 41% more of their wins

  • 04 Sub defence favours Vologdin

    Mark Vologdin has been submitted 50% less often

  • 05 Durability favours Vologdin

    Mark Vologdin has been finished 50% less often

  • 06 Striking accuracy favours Musasa

    Josias Musasa is 6% more accurate on the feet

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Dennis Buzukja
Dennis Buzukja
United States 12-6-0 MMA Switch Stance 2-fight loss streak
13% | 87%
Featherweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 2 Aug · 12:00 AM AEST
Bogdan Grad
Bogdan Grad
Romania 15-4-0 Karate Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Bogdan Grad
87.1 %
050100
90% CI · 57 – 98 · σ 0.055 · High
Why this pick
  • Bogdan Grad eats 2.6 fewer strikes per minute
  • Bogdan Grad hits 0.33 more takedowns per minute
  • Bogdan Grad is 17% more accurate on the feet
  • the case against Dennis Buzukja lands 1.9 more sig strikes per minute
  • Dennis Buzukja out-volumes opponents at 4.7 sig/min vs Bogdan Grad's 2.8
Method Breakdown
Buzukja Grad
KO/TKO 5.7
27.2
Submission 1.3
5.7
Decision 5.9
54.1
Finish Distribution · By Round
22
R1
12
R2
6
R3
60
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Buzukja Grad
Str/min 4.7
2.8
Sig Acc 41%
59%
Str Def 53%
49%
TD/min 0.00
0.33
Finish 60%
67%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
25
33
BuzukjaGrad
Combined 74 18–125
Takedowns
0.0
1.6
BuzukjaGrad
Combined 2.5 0.0–5.1
Fight length
Expected 2.2 of 3 rounds 60% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Grad

    Bogdan Grad eats 2.6 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Buzukja

    Dennis Buzukja lands 1.9 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Takedown volume favours Grad

    Bogdan Grad hits 0.33 more takedowns per minute

  • 04 Striking accuracy favours Grad

    Bogdan Grad is 17% more accurate on the feet

  • 05 Control time favours Grad

    Bogdan Grad controls 38% more cage time

  • 06 Takedown defence favours Grad

    Bogdan Grad stuffs 18% more incoming takedowns

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Oban Elliott
Oban Elliott
England 12-4-0 MMA Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
67% | 33%
Welterweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 2 Aug · 12:00 AM AEST
MO
Michael Oliveira
1-0-0 nan
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Oban Elliott
66.6 %
050100
90% CI · 37 – 97 · σ 0.070 · High
Why this pick
  • the case against Michael Oliveira comes in on a 2-fight cleaner skid
  • Oban Elliott has a 5-fight UFC experience edge (5 vs 0)
Method Breakdown
Elliott Oliveira
KO/TKO 28.2
8.6
Submission 9.4
8.8
Decision 29.0
16.0
Finish Distribution · By Round
29
R1
17
R2
9
R3
45
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Elliott Oliveira
Str/min 3.6
0.0
Sig Acc 49%
0%
Str Def 61%
0%
TD/min 0.06
0.00
Finish 40%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
31
21
ElliottOliveira
Combined 56 18–125
Takedowns
0.4
0.1
ElliottOliveira
Combined 1.9 0.0–4.4
Fight length
Expected 2.0 of 3 rounds 45% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Loss streak favours Oliveira

    Michael Oliveira comes in on a 2-fight cleaner skid

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Hailey Cowan
Hailey Cowan
United States 7-5-0 Freestyle Southpaw 3-fight loss streak
46% | 54%
Women's Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 2 Aug · 12:00 AM AEST
NM
Nina Milošević
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Nina Milošević
54.5 %
050100
90% CI · 24 – 84 · σ 0.077 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Nina Milošević comes in on a 3-fight cleaner skid
  • Model uncertainty: ±8pp on the win probability
Method Breakdown
Cowan Milošević
KO/TKO 3.1
14.9
Submission 19.6
16.3
Decision 22.9
23.2
Finish Distribution · By Round
33
R1
13
R2
7
R3
46
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Cowan Milošević
Str/min 2.7
0.0
Sig Acc 39%
0%
Str Def 38%
0%
TD/min 0.14
0.00
Finish 59%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
25
29
CowanMilošević
Combined 54 15–124
Takedowns
1.1
0.0
CowanMilošević
Combined 1.9 0.0–4.7
Fight length
Expected 1.9 of 3 rounds 46% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Loss streak favours Milošević

    Nina Milošević comes in on a 3-fight cleaner skid

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Islam Makhachev
Makhachev
Title · Main Event
72%
Model Leans Makhachev
2026-08-15
Ian Machado Garry
Garry
UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry
2026
15
AUG
UPCOMING CARD

UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry

Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia, USA
8
Bouts
1
Value Bouts
Islam Makhachev
C Islam Makhachev
Russia 28-1-0 Sambo Southpaw 16-fight win streak
SB 1.25
72% | 28%
Welterweight 5 rds
⏱ Sun 16 Aug · 1:30 PM AEST
Ian Machado Garry
Ian Machado Garry
Ireland 17-1-0 Orthodox 2-fight win streak
SB 3.85
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Islam Makhachev
72.4 %
050100
90% CI · 42 – 98 · σ 0.088 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Islam Makhachev rides a 14-fight longer win streak
  • Islam Makhachev eats 1.4 fewer strikes per minute
  • Islam Makhachev finishes 39% more of their wins
  • the case against Ian Machado Garry lands 2.3 more sig strikes per minute
  • Islam Makhachev rides a 16-fight win streak (Ian Machado Garry: 2)
Method Breakdown
Makhachev Garry
KO/TKO 14.6
16.6
Submission 23.0
1.9
Decision 34.7
9.0
Finish Distribution · By Round
23
R1
17
R2
9
R3
5
R4
3
R5
44
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Makhachev Garry
Str/min 2.4
4.8
Sig Acc 58%
54%
Str Def 62%
53%
TD/min 0.21
0.06
Finish 67%
27%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
38
43
MakhachevGarry
Combined 104 19–155
Takedowns
2.2
0.0
MakhachevGarry
Combined 2.5 0.0–5.3
Fight length
Expected 3.1 of 5 rounds 43% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Makhachev

    Islam Makhachev rides a 14-fight longer win streak

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Makhachev

    Islam Makhachev eats 1.4 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 Striking volume favours Garry

    Ian Machado Garry lands 2.3 more sig strikes per minute

  • 04 Finish rate favours Makhachev

    Islam Makhachev finishes 39% more of their wins

  • 05 Submission rate favours Makhachev

    Islam Makhachev taps opponents 44% more often

  • 06 Takedown volume favours Makhachev

    Islam Makhachev hits 0.15 more takedowns per minute

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed
No markets passed the empirical-ROI gate. 2 markets analysed.
Mackenzie Dern
C Mackenzie Dern
United States 16-5-0 Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 3-fight win streak
SB 1.44
48% | 52%
Women's Strawweight 5 rds
⏱ Sun 16 Aug · 12:45 PM AEST
Gillian Robertson
Gillian Robertson
Canada 17-8-0 MMA Orthodox 5-fight win streak
SB 2.72
Breakdown ▼
1 value bet on SportsBet
Model Favourite
Gillian Robertson
52.4 %
050100
90% CI · 22 – 82 · σ 0.067 · High
Why this pick
  • Gillian Robertson eats 1.1 fewer strikes per minute
  • Gillian Robertson rides a 2-fight longer win streak
  • Gillian Robertson finishes 22% more of their wins
  • the case against Mackenzie Dern lands 0.8 more sig strikes per minute
  • Gillian Robertson rides a 5-fight win streak (Mackenzie Dern: 3)
Method Breakdown
Dern Robertson
KO/TKO 3.5
11.4
Submission 25.4
10.7
Decision 18.8
30.3
Finish Distribution · By Round
21
R1
13
R2
7
R3
4
R4
2
R5
49
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Dern Robertson
Str/min 3.5
2.7
Sig Acc 42%
48%
Str Def 52%
56%
TD/min 0.06
0.18
Finish 38%
60%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
42
41
DernRobertson
Combined 83 18–146
Takedowns
0.2
1.5
DernRobertson
Combined 2.0 0.0–5.9
Fight length
Expected 3.3 of 5 rounds 52% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Robertson

    Gillian Robertson eats 1.1 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Robertson

    Gillian Robertson rides a 2-fight longer win streak

  • 03 Striking volume favours Dern

    Mackenzie Dern lands 0.8 more sig strikes per minute

  • 04 Finish rate favours Robertson

    Gillian Robertson finishes 22% more of their wins

  • 05 Takedown volume favours Robertson

    Gillian Robertson hits 0.12 more takedowns per minute

  • 06 KO rate favours Robertson

    Gillian Robertson finishes by KO 14% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 1 flagged · 2 markets analysed
  • Gillian Robertson wins
    Strong edge
    Model 52%
    Bookies 37%
    EV / $100 +$42
    Stake 6.2%
    2.72
    $62 returns $169
    +$107 profit
Edson Barboza
Edson Barboza
Brazil 24-14-0 Striker Orthodox 3-fight loss streak
34% | 66%
Lightweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 16 Aug · 11:00 AM AEST
Esteban Ribovics
Esteban Ribovics
Argentina 15-3-0 Striker Orthodox 1 loss
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Esteban Ribovics
65.5 %
050100
90% CI · 36 – 96 · σ 0.100 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Esteban Ribovics lands 3.1 more sig strikes per minute
  • Esteban Ribovics comes in on a 2-fight cleaner skid
  • the case against Edson Barboza eats 1.1 fewer strikes per minute
  • Esteban Ribovics out-volumes opponents at 7.2 sig/min vs Edson Barboza's 4.1
Method Breakdown
Barboza Ribovics
KO/TKO 9.2
29.5
Submission 3.2
12.8
Decision 22.1
23.3
Finish Distribution · By Round
26
R1
19
R2
10
R3
45
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Barboza Ribovics
Str/min 4.1
7.2
Sig Acc 45%
43%
Str Def 56%
54%
TD/min 0.03
0.02
Finish 50%
29%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
52
59
BarbozaRibovics
Combined 114 22–196
Takedowns
0.0
0.4
BarbozaRibovics
Combined 0.5 0.0–3.8
Fight length
Expected 2.0 of 3 rounds 45% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Ribovics

    Esteban Ribovics lands 3.1 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Barboza

    Edson Barboza eats 1.1 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 KO rate favours Barboza

    Edson Barboza finishes by KO 29% more often

  • 04 Finish rate favours Barboza

    Edson Barboza finishes 21% more of their wins

  • 05 Loss streak favours Ribovics

    Esteban Ribovics comes in on a 2-fight cleaner skid

  • 06 Takedown defence favours Barboza

    Edson Barboza stuffs 7% more incoming takedowns

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Erin Blanchfield
Erin Blanchfield
United States 14-2-0 Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 2-fight win streak
81% | 19%
Women's Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 16 Aug · 11:00 AM AEST
Jasmine Jasudavicius
Jasmine Jasudavicius
Canada 15-4-0 Brawler Orthodox 1 win
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Erin Blanchfield
81.1 %
050100
90% CI · 51 – 98 · σ 0.099 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Erin Blanchfield lands 1.9 more sig strikes per minute
  • Erin Blanchfield rides a 1-fight longer win streak
  • Erin Blanchfield taps opponents 19% more often
  • the case against Jasmine Jasudavicius eats 0.9 fewer strikes per minute
  • Erin Blanchfield out-volumes opponents at 5.2 sig/min vs Jasmine Jasudavicius's 3.4
Method Breakdown
Blanchfield Jasudavicius
KO/TKO 22.7
3.7
Submission 14.1
2.0
Decision 44.3
13.2
Finish Distribution · By Round
19
R1
13
R2
10
R3
58
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Blanchfield Jasudavicius
Str/min 5.2
3.4
Sig Acc 44%
44%
Str Def 59%
52%
TD/min 0.13
0.17
Finish 44%
33%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
52
45
BlanchfieldJasudavicius
Combined 109 21–157
Takedowns
0.4
0.6
BlanchfieldJasudavicius
Combined 1.8 0.0–5.0
Fight length
Expected 2.3 of 3 rounds 58% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Blanchfield

    Erin Blanchfield lands 1.9 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Jasudavicius

    Jasmine Jasudavicius eats 0.9 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 Win streak favours Blanchfield

    Erin Blanchfield rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 04 Submission rate favours Blanchfield

    Erin Blanchfield taps opponents 19% more often

  • 05 Finish rate favours Blanchfield

    Erin Blanchfield finishes 11% more of their wins

  • 06 KO rate favours Jasudavicius

    Jasmine Jasudavicius finishes by KO 8% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Chidi Njokuani
Chidi Njokuani
United States 25-11-0 MMA Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
36% | 64%
Welterweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 16 Aug · 9:00 AM AEST
Geoff Neal
Geoff Neal
United States 16-8-0 Striker Southpaw 2-fight loss streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Geoff Neal
64.1 %
050100
90% CI · 34 – 94 · σ 0.048 · High
Why this pick
  • Geoff Neal stuffs 15% more incoming takedowns
  • Geoff Neal taps opponents 7% more often
  • Geoff Neal finishes 4% more of their wins
  • the case against Chidi Njokuani eats 1.7 fewer strikes per minute
  • Geoff Neal KOs 50% of opponents — Chidi Njokuani has been KO'd in 20% of losses
Method Breakdown
Njokuani Neal
KO/TKO 20.7
20.8
Submission 1.9
3.8
Decision 13.3
39.5
Finish Distribution · By Round
28
R1
16
R2
3
R3
53
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Njokuani Neal
Str/min 5.7
5.0
Sig Acc 60%
51%
Str Def 57%
57%
TD/min 0.00
0.04
Finish 60%
64%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
47
57
NjokuaniNeal
Combined 81 18–164
Takedowns
0.0
0.2
NjokuaniNeal
Combined 0.5 0.0–4.1
Fight length
Expected 2.0 of 3 rounds 53% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Njokuani

    Chidi Njokuani eats 1.7 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Njokuani

    Chidi Njokuani lands 0.7 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Striking accuracy favours Njokuani

    Chidi Njokuani is 9% more accurate on the feet

  • 04 Takedown defence favours Neal

    Geoff Neal stuffs 15% more incoming takedowns

  • 05 Submission rate favours Neal

    Geoff Neal taps opponents 7% more often

  • 06 Finish rate favours Neal

    Geoff Neal finishes 4% more of their wins

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Vicente Luque
Vicente Luque
United States 24-12-1 Muay Thai Orthodox 1 win
60% | 40%
Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 16 Aug · 7:00 AM AEST
Tresean Gore
Tresean Gore
United States 7-4-0 Boxing Switch Stance 1 win
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Vicente Luque
60.4 %
050100
90% CI · 30 – 90 · σ 0.072 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Vicente Luque eats 1.8 fewer strikes per minute
  • Vicente Luque lands 1.4 more sig strikes per minute
  • Vicente Luque finishes by KO 11% more often
  • the case against Tresean Gore taps opponents 15% more often
  • Vicente Luque out-volumes opponents at 4.8 sig/min vs Tresean Gore's 3.4
Method Breakdown
Luque Gore
KO/TKO 23.9
11.9
Submission 12.5
9.8
Decision 24.0
17.9
Finish Distribution · By Round
30
R1
19
R2
10
R3
42
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Luque Gore
Str/min 4.8
3.4
Sig Acc 51%
50%
Str Def 52%
41%
TD/min 0.06
0.13
Finish 72%
71%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
34
33
LuqueGore
Combined 62 15–139
Takedowns
0.1
0.6
LuqueGore
Combined 1.6 0.0–4.6
Fight length
Expected 1.9 of 3 rounds 42% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Luque

    Vicente Luque eats 1.8 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Luque

    Vicente Luque lands 1.4 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Submission rate favours Gore

    Tresean Gore taps opponents 15% more often

  • 04 Takedown defence favours Gore

    Tresean Gore stuffs 24% more incoming takedowns

  • 05 KO rate favours Luque

    Vicente Luque finishes by KO 11% more often

  • 06 Takedown volume favours Gore

    Tresean Gore hits 0.07 more takedowns per minute

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Jeremiah Wells
Jeremiah Wells
United States 13-4-1 Striker Switch Stance 1 win
11% | 89%
Welterweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 16 Aug · 7:00 AM AEST
Myktybek Orolbai
Myktybek Orolbai
Kyrgyzstan 16-2-1 MMA Orthodox 3-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Myktybek Orolbai
88.8 %
050100
90% CI · 59 – 98 · σ 0.069 · High
Why this pick
  • Myktybek Orolbai rides a 2-fight longer win streak
  • Myktybek Orolbai hits 0.38 more takedowns per minute
  • Myktybek Orolbai lands 0.4 more sig strikes per minute
  • the case against Jeremiah Wells eats 1.4 fewer strikes per minute
  • Myktybek Orolbai rides a 3-fight win streak (Jeremiah Wells: 1)
Method Breakdown
Wells Orolbai
KO/TKO 2.9
24.4
Submission 1.6
18.7
Decision 6.8
45.7
Finish Distribution · By Round
18
R1
15
R2
15
R3
52
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Wells Orolbai
Str/min 2.3
2.8
Sig Acc 46%
50%
Str Def 48%
51%
TD/min 0.20
0.58
Finish 57%
50%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
23
22
WellsOrolbai
Combined 51 17–107
Takedowns
0.8
1.6
WellsOrolbai
Combined 3.0 0.0–7.1
Fight length
Expected 2.3 of 3 rounds 53% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Wells

    Jeremiah Wells eats 1.4 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Orolbai

    Myktybek Orolbai rides a 2-fight longer win streak

  • 03 Takedown volume favours Orolbai

    Myktybek Orolbai hits 0.38 more takedowns per minute

  • 04 Striking volume favours Orolbai

    Myktybek Orolbai lands 0.4 more sig strikes per minute

  • 05 Submission rate favours Orolbai

    Myktybek Orolbai taps opponents 19% more often

  • 06 KO rate favours Wells

    Jeremiah Wells finishes by KO 12% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Dustin Stoltzfus
Dustin Stoltzfus
United States 16-8-0 Muay Thai Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
30% | 70%
Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 16 Aug · 9:00 AM AEST
Mansur Abdul-Malik
Mansur Abdul-Malik
United States 9-1-1 Freestyle Orthodox 1 loss
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Mansur Abdul-Malik
69.9 %
050100
90% CI · 40 – 98 · σ 0.065 · High
Why this pick
  • Mansur Abdul-Malik finishes by KO 30% more often
  • Mansur Abdul-Malik finishes 20% more of their wins
  • Mansur Abdul-Malik stuffs 40% more incoming takedowns
  • the case against Dustin Stoltzfus eats 1.1 fewer strikes per minute
  • Mansur Abdul-Malik KOs 60% of opponents — Dustin Stoltzfus has been KO'd in 20% of losses
Method Breakdown
Stoltzfus Abdul-Malik
KO/TKO 7.7
23.3
Submission 6.4
19.6
Decision 16.0
27.1
Finish Distribution · By Round
29
R1
18
R2
9
R3
43
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Stoltzfus Abdul-Malik
Str/min 3.3
2.8
Sig Acc 44%
42%
Str Def 48%
44%
TD/min 0.13
0.14
Finish 60%
80%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
31
26
StoltzfusAbdul-Malik
Combined 54 15–133
Takedowns
0.4
0.7
StoltzfusAbdul-Malik
Combined 1.6 0.0–4.5
Fight length
Expected 2.0 of 3 rounds 43% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Stoltzfus

    Dustin Stoltzfus eats 1.1 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 KO rate favours Abdul-Malik

    Mansur Abdul-Malik finishes by KO 30% more often

  • 03 Striking volume favours Stoltzfus

    Dustin Stoltzfus lands 0.5 more sig strikes per minute

  • 04 Finish rate favours Abdul-Malik

    Mansur Abdul-Malik finishes 20% more of their wins

  • 05 Takedown defence favours Abdul-Malik

    Mansur Abdul-Malik stuffs 40% more incoming takedowns

  • 06 Submission rate favours Abdul-Malik

    Mansur Abdul-Malik taps opponents 10% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Anthony Hernandez
Hernandez
Main Event
67%
Model Leans Hernandez
2026-08-22
Gregory Rodrigues
Rodrigues
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues
2026
22
AUG
UPCOMING CARD

UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues

Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, USA
2
Bouts
Anthony Hernandez
Anthony Hernandez
United States 15-3-0 Striker Orthodox 1 loss
67% | 33%
Middleweight 5 rds
⏱ Sun 23 Aug · 10:00 AM AEST
Gregory Rodrigues
Gregory Rodrigues
Brazil 19-6-0 Grappler Orthodox 3-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Anthony Hernandez
67.4 %
050100
90% CI · 37 – 97 · σ 0.062 · High
Why this pick
  • Anthony Hernandez eats 1.6 fewer strikes per minute
  • Anthony Hernandez taps opponents 42% more often
  • Anthony Hernandez hits 0.26 more takedowns per minute
  • the case against Gregory Rodrigues rides a 3-fight longer win streak
  • Gregory Rodrigues rides a 3-fight win streak (Anthony Hernandez: 0)
Method Breakdown
Hernandez Rodrigues
KO/TKO 19.7
21.9
Submission 28.0
3.3
Decision 19.6
7.5
Finish Distribution · By Round
24
R1
27
R2
11
R3
8
R4
3
R5
27
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Hernandez Rodrigues
Str/min 4.5
5.5
Sig Acc 61%
51%
Str Def 51%
51%
TD/min 0.39
0.13
Finish 83%
69%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
37
30
HernandezRodrigues
Combined 79 18–166
Takedowns
2.0
0.0
HernandezRodrigues
Combined 2.3 0.0–5.5
Fight length
Expected 2.6 of 5 rounds 27% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Hernandez

    Anthony Hernandez eats 1.6 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Rodrigues

    Gregory Rodrigues rides a 3-fight longer win streak

  • 03 Striking volume favours Rodrigues

    Gregory Rodrigues lands 1.0 more sig strikes per minute

  • 04 Submission rate favours Hernandez

    Anthony Hernandez taps opponents 42% more often

  • 05 Takedown volume favours Hernandez

    Anthony Hernandez hits 0.26 more takedowns per minute

  • 06 KO rate favours Rodrigues

    Gregory Rodrigues finishes by KO 36% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
TB
TBA
— | —
No model pick
3 rds ⏱ Sun 23 Aug · 7:00 AM AEST
OT
Opponent TBA
Breakdown ▼
⟁ No model pick — one fighter has no fight-record data in any source (typically a promotional debut), so the model can't price this bout.
Predictions soon
2026-09-05
UFC Fight Night: Paris
2026
05
SEP
predictions soon

UFC Fight Night: Paris

Accor Arena, Paris, France
2
Bouts
TB
TBA
50% | 50%
5 rds ⏱ Sun 6 Sep · 2:00 AM AEST
OT
Opponent TBA
Breakdown ▼
⟁ This fight is on the upcoming schedule but stats and predictions aren't available yet. The matrix will compute them closer to event time.
TB
TBA
50% | 50%
3 rds ⏱ Sat 5 Sep · 11:00 PM AEST
OT
Opponent TBA
Breakdown ▼
⟁ This fight is on the upcoming schedule but stats and predictions aren't available yet. The matrix will compute them closer to event time.