Updated 2026-10-17 18:48 AEST
76
Bouts
8
Events
115
Value Bets
New here? How to read these predictions
Win probability
Our model's estimate that a fighter wins — e.g. 72% means we'd expect them to win roughly 7 of 10 times.
Confidence interval (CI)
The range the true probability likely falls in. Wider = less certain. A pick'em fight has a wide band; a clear favourite a narrow one.
Edge
How much higher our probability is than the bookmaker's implied odds. Positive edge = we think it's underpriced.
EV (expected value)
Average return if you placed the bet many times. +15% EV means about 15c profit per $1 staked, on average.
Risk tiers
Conservative leans to safe favourites, Balanced blends, Aggressive chases bigger-odds longshots. Pick what suits you.
Edge badges
Strong / Solid / Slight edge rank how much value the model sees — and how big a stake it suggests. They're not a promise the bet wins.

Tap any fight row to open the full model breakdown. New to the model itself? How it works · FAQ.

Mike Malott
Malott
Main Event
54%
Model Leans Buckley
2026-10-18
Joaquin Buckley
Buckley
UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott
2026
18
OCT
⚡ Next Event

UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott

Rogers Place, Edmonton, Canada
13
Bouts
9
Value Bouts
Mike Malott
Mike Malott
United States 14-2-1 MMA Orthodox 4-fight win streak
SB 1.72
46% | 54%
Welterweight 5 rds
⏱ Sun 18 Oct · 12:45 PM AEST
Joaquin Buckley
Joaquin Buckley
United States 21-8-0 Freestyle Southpaw 2-fight loss streak
SB 2.13
Model Favourite
Joaquin Buckley
54.2 %
Market · 45% on Buckley · Moirai +9 pts
Confidence · Medium · limited UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • the case against Mike Malott rides a 4-fight longer win streak
  • Mike Malott rides a 4-fight win streak (Joaquin Buckley: 0)
Method Breakdown
Malott Buckley
KO/TKO 16.0
31.2
Submission 9.3
0.1
Decision 20.5
22.8
Finish Distribution · By Round
23
R1
14
R2
9
R3
6
R4
4
R5
43
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Malott Buckley
Str/min 3.9
3.6
Sig Acc 52%
36%
Str Def 57%
59%
TD/min 0.10
0.10
Finish 75%
65%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
40
39
MalottBuckley
Combined 89 19–178
Takedowns
0.3
0.1
MalottBuckley
Combined 0.7 0.0–3.8
Fight length
Expected 3.1 of 5 rounds 43% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Malott

    Mike Malott rides a 4-fight longer win streak

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Malott

    Mike Malott eats 0.3 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 Submission rate favours Malott

    Mike Malott wins by submission in 25% of fights, Joaquin Buckley in 0%

  • 04 Striking volume favours Malott

    Mike Malott lands 0.3 more sig strikes per minute

  • 05 Striking accuracy favours Malott

    Mike Malott lands 52% of significant strikes thrown, Joaquin Buckley 36%

  • 06 Finish rate favours Malott

    Mike Malott finishes 75% of fights, Joaquin Buckley 65%

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 149 markets analysed
No markets passed the value gate. 149 markets analysed.
Erin Blanchfield
Erin Blanchfield
United States 14-2-0 Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 2-fight win streak
SB 1.29
78% | 22%
Women's Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 18 Oct · 12:15 PM AEST
Jasmine Jasudavicius
Jasmine Jasudavicius
Canada 15-4-0 Brawler Orthodox 1 win
SB 3.64
1 value bet on Sportsbet
Model Favourite
Erin Blanchfield
77.6 %
Market · 74% on Blanchfield · Moirai +4 pts
Confidence · Medium · sub-models broadly agree
Why this pick
  • Erin Blanchfield lands 1.9 more sig strikes per minute
  • Erin Blanchfield rides a 1-fight longer win streak
  • Erin Blanchfield wins by submission in 44% of fights, Jasmine Jasudavicius in 25%
  • the case against Jasmine Jasudavicius eats 0.9 fewer strikes per minute
  • Erin Blanchfield out-volumes opponents at 5.2 sig/min vs Jasmine Jasudavicius's 3.4
Method Breakdown
Blanchfield Jasudavicius
KO/TKO 16.4
3.9
Submission 13.0
5.3
Decision 48.2
13.3
Finish Distribution · By Round
20
R1
12
R2
6
R3
62
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Blanchfield Jasudavicius
Str/min 5.2
3.4
Sig Acc 44%
44%
Str Def 59%
52%
TD/min 0.13
0.17
Finish 44%
33%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
59
45
BlanchfieldJasudavicius
Combined 110 22–165
Takedowns
0.6
0.7
BlanchfieldJasudavicius
Combined 2.0 0.0–5.3
Fight length
Expected 2.3 of 3 rounds 62% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Jasudavicius

    Jasmine Jasudavicius eats 0.9 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Blanchfield

    Erin Blanchfield lands 1.9 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Win streak favours Blanchfield

    Erin Blanchfield rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 04 Submission rate favours Blanchfield

    Erin Blanchfield wins by submission in 44% of fights, Jasmine Jasudavicius in 25%

  • 05 Finish rate favours Blanchfield

    Erin Blanchfield finishes 44% of fights, Jasmine Jasudavicius 33%

  • 06 KO rate favours Jasudavicius

    Jasmine Jasudavicius wins by knockout in 8% of fights, Erin Blanchfield in 0%

Value Bets · Sportsbet 1 flagged · 112 markets analysed
  • Fight ends by KO/TKO
    Strong edge
    Priced at 20%
    Break-even 12% fair 11%
    EV / $100 +$66
    Stake 2.3%
    8.25
    $23 of $1,000 returns $190
    +$167 profit
Kyle Nelson
Kyle Nelson
Canada 17-7-1 Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Switch Stance 1 loss
SB 4.00
50% | 50%
Lightweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 18 Oct · 11:45 AM AEST
CP
Cristian Perez
Orthodox
SB 1.25
2 value bets on Sportsbet
Model Favourite
Kyle Nelson
50.4 %
Market · 24% on Nelson · Moirai +27 pts
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Cristian Perez has no UFC fights — too little to compare fight stats, so this pick leans on age, size and pre-UFC record
Method Breakdown
Nelson Perez
KO/TKO 15.3
22.9
Submission 14.3
8.8
Decision 20.7
17.9
Finish Distribution · By Round
34
R1
19
R2
8
R3
39
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Nelson Perez
Str/min 3.6
0.0
Sig Acc 46%
0%
Str Def 54%
0%
TD/min 0.08
0.00
Finish 58%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
33
29
NelsonPerez
Combined 61 16–132
Takedowns
0.5
0.1
NelsonPerez
Combined 1.9 0.0–4.6
Fight length
Expected 1.8 of 3 rounds 39% chance it goes the distance
Value Bets · Sportsbet 2 flagged · 97 markets analysed
  • Cristian Perez wins by DEC
    Strong edge
    Priced at 24%
    Break-even 14% fair 12%
    EV / $100 +$71
    Stake 3.0%
    7.00
    $30 of $1,000 returns $210
    +$180 profit
  • Cristian Perez wins by Decision
    Strong edge
    Priced at 24%
    Break-even 15%
    EV / $100 +$59
    Stake 2.7%
    6.50
    $27 of $1,000 returns $176
    +$148 profit
Kyle Daukaus
Kyle Daukaus
United States 17-4-0 Southpaw 1 loss
SB 1.50
70% | 30%
Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 18 Oct · 11:15 AM AEST
Marc-Andre Barriault
Marc-Andre Barriault
Canada 17-11-0 Striker Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
SB 2.61
Model Favourite
Kyle Daukaus
69.6 %
Market · 64% on Daukaus · Moirai +6 pts
Confidence · High · sub-models agree closely
Why this pick
  • Kyle Daukaus eats 2.7 fewer strikes per minute
  • Kyle Daukaus finishes 60% of fights, Marc-Andre Barriault 47%
  • Kyle Daukaus hits 0.11 more takedowns per minute
  • the case against Marc-Andre Barriault lands 2.8 more sig strikes per minute
  • Marc-Andre Barriault out-volumes opponents at 5.6 sig/min vs Kyle Daukaus's 2.9
Method Breakdown
Daukaus Barriault
KO/TKO 7.4
15.7
Submission 39.5
0.1
Decision 22.7
14.6
Finish Distribution · By Round
33
R1
20
R2
10
R3
37
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Daukaus Barriault
Str/min 2.9
5.6
Sig Acc 49%
47%
Str Def 42%
49%
TD/min 0.13
0.02
Finish 60%
47%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
42
44
DaukausBarriault
Combined 79 17–152
Takedowns
1.1
0.0
DaukausBarriault
Combined 1.4 0.0–4.5
Fight length
Expected 1.8 of 3 rounds 37% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Daukaus

    Kyle Daukaus eats 2.7 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Barriault

    Marc-Andre Barriault lands 2.8 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Finish rate favours Daukaus

    Kyle Daukaus finishes 60% of fights, Marc-Andre Barriault 47%

  • 04 Takedown volume favours Daukaus

    Kyle Daukaus hits 0.11 more takedowns per minute

  • 05 Control time favours Daukaus

    Kyle Daukaus spends 41% of fight time in control, Marc-Andre Barriault 10%

  • 06 Submission rate favours Daukaus

    Kyle Daukaus wins by submission in 20% of fights, Marc-Andre Barriault in 6%

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 97 markets analysed
No markets passed the value gate. 97 markets analysed.
LJ
Louis Jourdain
Canada 1-0-0 Orthodox
SB 1.53
37% | 63%
Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 18 Oct · 10:45 AM AEST
TC
Timmy Cuamba
United States 10-4-0 Striker Orthodox 1 loss
SB 2.51
Model Favourite
Timmy Cuamba
62.9 %
Market · 38% on Cuamba · Moirai +25 pts
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Timmy Cuamba is favoured at 63% — fight-history features sparse
  • Louis Jourdain has no UFC fights — too little to compare fight stats, so this pick leans on age, size and pre-UFC record
Method Breakdown
Jourdain Cuamba
KO/TKO 8.0
25.3
Submission 11.4
7.3
Decision 17.7
30.3
Finish Distribution · By Round
28
R1
16
R2
8
R3
48
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Jourdain Cuamba
Str/min 0.0
2.9
Sig Acc 0%
46%
Str Def 0%
56%
TD/min 0.00
0.10
Finish 0%
40%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
27
34
JourdainCuamba
Combined 65 19–131
Takedowns
0.1
0.5
JourdainCuamba
Combined 1.6 0.0–4.6
Fight length
Expected 2.0 of 3 rounds 48% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Model lean favours Cuamba

    Timmy Cuamba is favoured at 63% — fight-history features sparse

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 110 markets analysed
No markets passed the value gate. 110 markets analysed.
Nate Landwehr
Nate Landwehr
United States 18-8-0 Orthodox 3-fight loss streak
SB 3.30
71% | 29%
Lightweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 18 Oct · 10:15 AM AEST
Mandel Nallo
Mandel Nallo
Canada 14-4-0 Kickboxer Orthodox 1 loss
SB 1.34
7 value bets on Sportsbet
Model Favourite
Nate Landwehr
70.9 %
Market · 29% on Landwehr · Moirai +42 pts
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Nate Landwehr is favoured at 71% — fight-history features sparse
  • Mandel Nallo has 1 UFC fight — too little to compare fight stats, so this pick leans on age, size and pre-UFC record
Method Breakdown
Landwehr Nallo
KO/TKO 32.7
8.8
Submission 10.8
5.3
Decision 27.3
15.1
Finish Distribution · By Round
31
R1
18
R2
8
R3
42
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Landwehr Nallo
Str/min 5.6
6.7
Sig Acc 46%
50%
Str Def 51%
32%
TD/min 0.05
0.03
Finish 73%
88%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
37
37
LandwehrNallo
Combined 77 14–165
Takedowns
0.0
0.0
LandwehrNallo
Combined 1.2 0.0–4.6
Fight length
Expected 1.9 of 3 rounds 42% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Model lean favours Landwehr

    Nate Landwehr is favoured at 71% — fight-history features sparse

Value Bets · Sportsbet 7 flagged · 98 markets analysed
  • Mandel Nallo wins by DEC
    Strong edge
    Priced at 29%
    Break-even 8% fair 7%
    EV / $100 +$283
    Stake 5.9%
    13.00
    $59 of $1,000 returns $767
    +$708 profit
  • Mandel Nallo wins by Decision
    Strong edge
    Priced at 29%
    Break-even 10%
    EV / $100 +$194
    Stake 5.4%
    10.00
    $54 of $1,000 returns $540
    +$486 profit
  • Nate Landwehr wins by DEC
    Strong edge
    Priced at 17%
    Break-even 6% fair 5%
    EV / $100 +$166
    Stake 2.8%
    16.00
    $28 of $1,000 returns $448
    +$420 profit
  • Nate Landwehr wins in R3+ or by Decision
    Strong edge
    Priced at 23%
    Break-even 10%
    EV / $100 +$127
    Stake 3.6%
    9.75
    $36 of $1,000 returns $351
    +$315 profit
  • Mandel Nallo wins by Sub or Decision
    Strong edge
    Priced at 40%
    Break-even 20%
    EV / $100 +$99
    Stake 6.2%
    5.00
    $62 of $1,000 returns $310
    +$248 profit
  • Nate Landwehr wins by KO or Decision
    Strong edge
    Priced at 37%
    Break-even 21%
    EV / $100 +$72
    Stake 4.8%
    4.70
    $48 of $1,000 returns $226
    +$178 profit
  • Nate Landwehr wins
    Strong edge
    Priced at 43%
    Break-even 30% fair 29%
    EV / $100 +$42
    Stake 4.6%
    3.30
    $46 of $1,000 returns $152
    +$106 profit
Tanner Boser
Tanner Boser
Canada 22-11-1 Karate Orthodox 1 loss
SB 2.86
32% | 68%
Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 18 Oct · 9:40 AM AEST
Jhonata Diniz
Jhonata Diniz
Brazil 9-2-0 Kickboxer Orthodox 1 loss
SB 1.43
2 value bets on Sportsbet
Model Favourite
Jhonata Diniz
68.0 %
Market · 67% on Diniz · Moirai +1 pts
Confidence · Medium · limited UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Jhonata Diniz finishes 60% of fights, Tanner Boser 45%
  • Jhonata Diniz wins by knockout in 60% of fights, Tanner Boser in 45%
  • Jhonata Diniz lands 59% of significant strikes thrown, Tanner Boser 54%
  • the case against Tanner Boser eats 0.4 fewer strikes per minute
  • Tanner Boser out-volumes opponents at 4.8 sig/min vs Jhonata Diniz's 3.7
Method Breakdown
Boser Diniz
KO/TKO 16.8
37.1
Submission 1.1
0.1
Decision 14.1
30.7
Finish Distribution · By Round
31
R1
16
R2
8
R3
45
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Boser Diniz
Str/min 4.8
3.7
Sig Acc 54%
59%
Str Def 58%
58%
TD/min 0.00
0.00
Finish 45%
60%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
40
44
BoserDiniz
Combined 94 18–163
Takedowns
0.0
0.0
BoserDiniz
Combined 0.2 0.0–3.8
Fight length
Expected 1.9 of 3 rounds 45% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Boser

    Tanner Boser eats 0.4 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Boser

    Tanner Boser lands 1.1 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Finish rate favours Diniz

    Jhonata Diniz finishes 60% of fights, Tanner Boser 45%

  • 04 KO rate favours Diniz

    Jhonata Diniz wins by knockout in 60% of fights, Tanner Boser in 45%

  • 05 Striking accuracy favours Diniz

    Jhonata Diniz lands 59% of significant strikes thrown, Tanner Boser 54%

  • 06 KO durability favours Boser

    Tanner Boser has been knocked out in 18% of fights, Jhonata Diniz in 40%

Value Bets · Sportsbet 2 flagged · 54 markets analysed
  • Jhonata Diniz wins by DEC
    Strong edge
    Priced at 30%
    Break-even 21% fair 18%
    EV / $100 +$43
    Stake 2.9%
    4.70
    $29 of $1,000 returns $136
    +$107 profit
  • Jhonata Diniz wins by Decision
    Strong edge
    Priced at 30%
    Break-even 22%
    EV / $100 +$37
    Stake 2.6%
    4.50
    $26 of $1,000 returns $117
    +$91 profit
Julien Leblanc
Julien Leblanc
Canada 10-3-0 1 loss
SB 5.75
38% | 62%
Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 18 Oct · 9:15 AM AEST
NG
Nick Galanti
United States 1-0-0
SB 1.14
3 value bets on Sportsbet
Model Favourite
Nick Galanti
62.4 %
Market · 83% on Galanti · Moirai −21 pts
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Nick Galanti is favoured at 62% — fight-history features sparse
  • Julien Leblanc has 1 UFC fight — too little to compare fight stats, so this pick leans on age, size and pre-UFC record
Method Breakdown
Leblanc Galanti
KO/TKO 6.9
14.3
Submission 14.9
29.8
Decision 15.8
18.4
Finish Distribution · By Round
37
R1
20
R2
9
R3
34
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Leblanc Galanti
Str/min 2.1
0.0
Sig Acc 62%
0%
Str Def 46%
0%
TD/min 0.02
0.00
Finish 90%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
16
17
LeblancGalanti
Combined 35 12–125
Takedowns
0.1
0.3
LeblancGalanti
Combined 1.9 0.0–4.7
Fight length
Expected 1.7 of 3 rounds 34% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Model lean favours Galanti

    Nick Galanti is favoured at 62% — fight-history features sparse

Value Bets · Sportsbet 3 flagged · 56 markets analysed
  • Nick Galanti wins by DEC
    Strong edge
    Priced at 23%
    Break-even 12% fair 11%
    EV / $100 +$82
    Stake 2.9%
    8.00
    $29 of $1,000 returns $232
    +$203 profit
  • Julien Leblanc wins by Sub or Decision
    Strong edge
    Priced at 18%
    Break-even 10%
    EV / $100 +$80
    Stake 2.3%
    9.75
    $23 of $1,000 returns $224
    +$201 profit
  • Nick Galanti wins by Decision
    Strong edge
    Priced at 23%
    Break-even 13%
    EV / $100 +$71
    Stake 2.7%
    7.50
    $27 of $1,000 returns $202
    +$176 profit
Javad Mahjoub
Javad Mahjoub
Iran 0-0-0
SB 2.12
34% | 66%
Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 18 Oct · 8:50 AM AEST
JF
Joel Faglier
United States 6-0-0 Karate
SB 1.73
1 value bet on Sportsbet
Model Favourite
Joel Faglier
65.9 %
Market · 55% on Faglier · Moirai +11 pts
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Joel Faglier is favoured at 66% — fight-history features sparse
  • Javad Mahjoub has no UFC fights — too little to compare fight stats, so this pick leans on age, size and pre-UFC record
Method Breakdown
Mahjoub Faglier
KO/TKO 13.6
30.9
Submission 6.9
15.6
Decision 13.6
19.5
Finish Distribution · By Round
37
R1
20
R2
11
R3
33
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Mahjoub Faglier
Str/min 0.0
0.0
Sig Acc 0%
0%
Str Def 0%
0%
TD/min 0.00
0.00
Finish 0%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
20
24
MahjoubFaglier
Combined 47 14–133
Takedowns
0.1
0.1
MahjoubFaglier
Combined 1.2 0.0–4.8
Fight length
Expected 1.7 of 3 rounds 33% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Model lean favours Faglier

    Joel Faglier is favoured at 66% — fight-history features sparse

Value Bets · Sportsbet 1 flagged · 55 markets analysed
  • Joel Faglier wins by KO or Decision
    Strong edge
    Priced at 45%
    Break-even 32%
    EV / $100 +$40
    Stake 4.7%
    3.10
    $47 of $1,000 returns $146
    +$99 profit
Katlyn Cerminara
Katlyn Cerminara
United States 18-6-0 MMA Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
SB 1.35
56% | 44%
Women's Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 18 Oct · 8:25 AM AEST
MS
Mackenzie Stiller
United States 0-0-0
SB 3.21
1 value bet on Sportsbet
Model Favourite
Katlyn Cerminara
56.0 %
Market · 70% on Cerminara · Moirai −14 pts
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Katlyn Cerminara is favoured at 56% — fight-history features sparse
  • layoff Cerminara hasn't fought since Mar 2024 — ring rust is hard to price, so the model widens its uncertainty here
  • Mackenzie Stiller has no UFC fights — too little to compare fight stats, so this pick leans on age, size and pre-UFC record
Method Breakdown
Cerminara Stiller
KO/TKO 11.2
8.9
Submission 8.9
7.6
Decision 35.9
27.5
Finish Distribution · By Round
20
R1
11
R2
6
R3
63
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Cerminara Stiller
Str/min 4.6
0.0
Sig Acc 35%
0%
Str Def 62%
0%
TD/min 0.02
0.00
Finish 12%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
51
40
CerminaraStiller
Combined 95 20–171
Takedowns
0.1
0.1
CerminaraStiller
Combined 1.6 0.0–4.4
Fight length
Expected 2.3 of 3 rounds 63% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Model lean favours Cerminara

    Katlyn Cerminara is favoured at 56% — fight-history features sparse

Value Bets · Sportsbet 1 flagged · 56 markets analysed
  • Mackenzie Stiller wins by KO or Decision
    Strong edge
    Priced at 28%
    Break-even 18%
    EV / $100 +$56
    Stake 3.1%
    5.50
    $31 of $1,000 returns $170
    +$140 profit
Chad Anheliger
Chad Anheliger
Canada 13-8-0 Freestyle Orthodox 1 loss
SB 2.41
37% | 63%
Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 18 Oct · 8:00 AM AEST
SK
Steven Koslow
United States 6-1-0 Switch Stance 1 loss
SB 1.57
1 value bet on Sportsbet
Model Favourite
Steven Koslow
63.2 %
Market · 61% on Koslow · Moirai +3 pts
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Steven Koslow is favoured at 63% — fight-history features sparse
  • layoff Anheliger hasn't fought since Nov 2024 — ring rust is hard to price, so the model widens its uncertainty here
  • Steven Koslow has 1 UFC fight — too little to compare fight stats, so this pick leans on age, size and pre-UFC record
Method Breakdown
Anheliger Koslow
KO/TKO 12.0
7.6
Submission 7.0
29.2
Decision 17.8
26.4
Finish Distribution · By Round
30
R1
17
R2
9
R3
44
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Anheliger Koslow
Str/min 3.1
1.5
Sig Acc 44%
39%
Str Def 54%
40%
TD/min 0.05
0.29
Finish 40%
87%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
27
24
AnheligerKoslow
Combined 57 12–120
Takedowns
0.1
1.2
AnheligerKoslow
Combined 1.9 0.0–5.6
Fight length
Expected 2.0 of 3 rounds 44% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Model lean favours Koslow

    Steven Koslow is favoured at 63% — fight-history features sparse

Value Bets · Sportsbet 1 flagged · 56 markets analysed
  • Steven Koslow wins by DEC
    Strong edge
    Priced at 26%
    Break-even 17% fair 15%
    EV / $100 +$48
    Stake 2.5%
    5.75
    $25 of $1,000 returns $144
    +$119 profit
Chelsea Chandler
Chelsea Chandler
United States 6-4-0 MMA Southpaw 1 win
SB 3.73
16% | 84%
Women's Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 18 Oct · 7:35 AM AEST
Melissa Croden
Melissa Croden
Canada 8-3-0 MMA 1 win
SB 1.28
3 value bets on Sportsbet
Model Favourite
Melissa Croden
84.0 %
Market · 74% on Croden · Moirai +10 pts
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Melissa Croden eats 2.1 fewer strikes per minute
  • Melissa Croden lands 0.7 more sig strikes per minute
  • Melissa Croden stops 67% of takedown attempts, Chelsea Chandler 25%
  • the case against Chelsea Chandler finishes 50% of fights, Melissa Croden 34%
  • Melissa Croden has never been finished in 3 fights
Method Breakdown
Chandler Croden
KO/TKO 3.4
14.8
Submission 3.3
7.7
Decision 9.3
61.5
Finish Distribution · By Round
15
R1
9
R2
5
R3
71
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Chandler Croden
Str/min 3.5
4.2
Sig Acc 45%
47%
Str Def 40%
59%
TD/min 0.05
0.13
Finish 50%
34%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
37
50
ChandlerCroden
Combined 96 20–162
Takedowns
0.1
1.4
ChandlerCroden
Combined 2.2 0.0–4.7
Fight length
Expected 2.5 of 3 rounds 71% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Croden

    Melissa Croden eats 2.1 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Croden

    Melissa Croden lands 0.7 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Takedown defence favours Croden

    Melissa Croden stops 67% of takedown attempts, Chelsea Chandler 25%

  • 04 Finish rate favours Chandler

    Chelsea Chandler finishes 50% of fights, Melissa Croden 34%

  • 05 Submission rate favours Chandler

    Chelsea Chandler wins by submission in 17% of fights, Melissa Croden in 1%

  • 06 Striking defence favours Croden

    Melissa Croden avoids 59% of strikes thrown at them, Chelsea Chandler 40%

Value Bets · Sportsbet 3 flagged · 53 markets analysed
  • Melissa Croden wins by Decision
    Strong edge
    Priced at 57%
    Break-even 42%
    EV / $100 +$36
    Stake 6.5%
    2.37
    $65 of $1,000 returns $154
    +$89 profit
  • Melissa Croden wins by DEC
    Strong edge
    Priced at 57%
    Break-even 43% fair 37%
    EV / $100 +$34
    Stake 6.4%
    2.35
    $64 of $1,000 returns $150
    +$86 profit
  • Melissa Croden wins by Sub or Decision
    Strong edge
    Priced at 64%
    Break-even 56%
    EV / $100 +$16
    Stake 5.0%
    1.80
    $50 of $1,000 returns $90
    +$40 profit
SY
SuYoung You
South Korea 16-4-0 MMA Orthodox 1 loss
SB 2.10
50% | 50%
Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 18 Oct · 7:10 AM AEST
CC
Cody Chovancek
Canada 1-0-0 Switch Stance
SB 1.77
Model Favourite
SuYoung You
50.3 %
Market · 46% on You · Moirai +5 pts
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Cody Chovancek has no UFC fights — too little to compare fight stats, so this pick leans on age, size and pre-UFC record
Method Breakdown
You Chovancek
KO/TKO 14.8
9.9
Submission 7.5
11.8
Decision 28.0
28.0
Finish Distribution · By Round
24
R1
13
R2
7
R3
56
DEC
Key Stats career avg
You Chovancek
Str/min 2.4
0.0
Sig Acc 52%
0%
Str Def 70%
0%
TD/min 0.21
0.00
Finish 26%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
29
27
YouChovancek
Combined 62 18–115
Takedowns
1.6
0.1
YouChovancek
Combined 2.4 0.0–5.2
Fight length
Expected 2.2 of 3 rounds 56% chance it goes the distance
Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 59 markets analysed
No markets passed the value gate. 59 markets analysed.
Alexander Volkanovski
Volkanovski
Title · Main Event
60%
Model Leans Evloev
2026-10-25
Movsar Evloev
Evloev
UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev
2026
25
OCT
UPCOMING CARD

UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev

Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
11
Bouts
Alexander Volkanovski
C Alexander Volkanovski
Australia 28-4-0 Orthodox 2-fight win streak
SB 1.94
40% | 60%
Featherweight 5 rds
⏱ Sun 25 Oct · 6:30 AM AEST
Movsar Evloev
Movsar Evloev
Russia 20-0-0 Freestyle Orthodox 10-fight win streak
SB 1.85
Model Favourite
Movsar Evloev
60.4 %
Market · 51% on Evloev · Moirai +9 pts
Confidence · High · sub-models agree closely
Why this pick
  • Movsar Evloev rides a 8-fight longer win streak
  • Movsar Evloev eats 0.5 fewer strikes per minute
  • Movsar Evloev hits 0.21 more takedowns per minute
  • the case against Alexander Volkanovski lands 2.1 more sig strikes per minute
  • Movsar Evloev rides a 10-fight win streak (Alexander Volkanovski: 2)
Method Breakdown
Volkanovski Evloev
KO/TKO 16.3
16.0
Submission 3.4
8.6
Decision 19.9
35.7
Finish Distribution · By Round
11
R1
12
R2
13
R3
5
R4
3
R5
56
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Volkanovski Evloev
Str/min 6.0
3.9
Sig Acc 57%
48%
Str Def 59%
61%
TD/min 0.11
0.32
Finish 39%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
58
65
VolkanovskiEvloev
Combined 148 22–235
Takedowns
0.5
1.9
VolkanovskiEvloev
Combined 2.6 0.0–6.5
Fight length
Expected 3.7 of 5 rounds 56% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Evloev

    Movsar Evloev rides a 8-fight longer win streak

  • 02 Striking volume favours Volkanovski

    Alexander Volkanovski lands 2.1 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Strikes absorbed favours Evloev

    Movsar Evloev eats 0.5 fewer strikes per minute

  • 04 Finish rate favours Volkanovski

    Alexander Volkanovski finishes 39% of fights, Movsar Evloev 0%

  • 05 KO rate favours Volkanovski

    Alexander Volkanovski wins by knockout in 39% of fights, Movsar Evloev in 0%

  • 06 Takedown volume favours Evloev

    Movsar Evloev hits 0.21 more takedowns per minute

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 73 markets analysed
No markets passed the value gate. 73 markets analysed.
Merab Dvalishvili
Merab Dvalishvili
Georgia 21-5-0 Freestyle Orthodox 1 loss
SB 2.40
38% | 62%
Bantamweight 5 rds
⏱ Sun 25 Oct · 5:45 AM AEST
Petr Yan
C Petr Yan
Russia 20-5-0 Boxing Switch Stance 4-fight win streak
SB 1.55
Model Favourite
Petr Yan
61.9 %
Market · 61% on Yan · Moirai +1 pts
Confidence · Medium · sub-models broadly agree
Why this pick
  • Petr Yan rides a 4-fight longer win streak
  • Petr Yan lands 0.8 more sig strikes per minute
  • Petr Yan wins by knockout in 27% of fights, Merab Dvalishvili in 6%
  • the case against Merab Dvalishvili eats 1.4 fewer strikes per minute
  • Petr Yan rides a 4-fight win streak (Merab Dvalishvili: 0)
Method Breakdown
Dvalishvili Yan
KO/TKO 6.5
19.8
Submission 6.3
1.2
Decision 25.3
40.9
Finish Distribution · By Round
9
R1
10
R2
11
R3
2
R4
3
R5
66
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Dvalishvili Yan
Str/min 4.4
5.2
Sig Acc 42%
54%
Str Def 54%
60%
TD/min 0.40
0.10
Finish 18%
27%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
72
64
DvalishviliYan
Combined 160 22–268
Takedowns
1.8
0.1
DvalishviliYan
Combined 2.3 0.0–6.8
Fight length
Expected 4.0 of 5 rounds 66% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Dvalishvili

    Merab Dvalishvili eats 1.4 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Yan

    Petr Yan rides a 4-fight longer win streak

  • 03 Takedown volume favours Dvalishvili

    Merab Dvalishvili hits 0.30 more takedowns per minute

  • 04 Striking volume favours Yan

    Petr Yan lands 0.8 more sig strikes per minute

  • 05 KO rate favours Yan

    Petr Yan wins by knockout in 27% of fights, Merab Dvalishvili in 6%

  • 06 Striking accuracy favours Yan

    Petr Yan lands 54% of significant strikes thrown, Merab Dvalishvili 42%

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 74 markets analysed
No markets passed the value gate. 74 markets analysed.
Ramazan Temirov
Ramazan Temirov
Uzbekistan 19-3-0 Striker Orthodox 3-fight win streak
75% | 25%
Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 25 Oct · 4:00 AM AEST
LK
Lone'er Kavanagh
3-2-0 Orthodox 1 loss
Model Favourite
Ramazan Temirov
75.5 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Ramazan Temirov rides a 3-fight longer win streak
  • Ramazan Temirov wins by knockout in 67% of fights, Lone'er Kavanagh in 20%
  • Ramazan Temirov eats 0.3 fewer strikes per minute
  • layoff Temirov hasn't fought since Mar 2025 — ring rust is hard to price, so the model widens its uncertainty here
  • Ramazan Temirov rides a 3-fight win streak (Lone'er Kavanagh: 0)
Method Breakdown
Temirov Kavanagh
KO/TKO 40.2
6.9
Submission 1.7
2.7
Decision 33.6
14.9
Finish Distribution · By Round
29
R1
15
R2
7
R3
49
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Temirov Kavanagh
Str/min 4.7
4.1
Sig Acc 41%
50%
Str Def 62%
54%
TD/min 0.05
0.08
Finish 67%
40%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
49
43
TemirovKavanagh
Combined 100 19–148
Takedowns
0.0
0.0
TemirovKavanagh
Combined 0.6 0.0–3.9
Fight length
Expected 2.0 of 3 rounds 49% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Temirov

    Ramazan Temirov rides a 3-fight longer win streak

  • 02 KO rate favours Temirov

    Ramazan Temirov wins by knockout in 67% of fights, Lone'er Kavanagh in 20%

  • 03 Strikes absorbed favours Temirov

    Ramazan Temirov eats 0.3 fewer strikes per minute

  • 04 Finish rate favours Temirov

    Ramazan Temirov finishes 67% of fights, Lone'er Kavanagh 40%

  • 05 Striking volume favours Temirov

    Ramazan Temirov lands 0.6 more sig strikes per minute

  • 06 Takedown defence favours Temirov

    Ramazan Temirov stops 100% of takedown attempts, Lone'er Kavanagh 83%

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
Sportsbet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Alexander Volkov
Alexander Volkov
Russia 40-11-0 Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 2-fight win streak
72% | 28%
Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 25 Oct · 4:00 AM AEST
Rizvan Kuniev
Rizvan Kuniev
Russia 12-3-1 Orthodox 2-fight win streak
Model Favourite
Alexander Volkov
72.5 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Alexander Volkov lands 1.3 more sig strikes per minute
  • Alexander Volkov finishes 47% of fights, Rizvan Kuniev 33%
  • Alexander Volkov lands 58% of significant strikes thrown, Rizvan Kuniev 48%
  • the case against Rizvan Kuniev eats 0.5 fewer strikes per minute
  • Alexander Volkov has a 16-fight UFC experience edge (19 vs 3)
Method Breakdown
Volkov Kuniev
KO/TKO 31.9
10.6
Submission 3.9
0.9
Decision 36.6
16.0
Finish Distribution · By Round
25
R1
14
R2
8
R3
53
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Volkov Kuniev
Str/min 5.1
3.7
Sig Acc 58%
48%
Str Def 54%
48%
TD/min 0.04
0.00
Finish 47%
33%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
55
45
VolkovKuniev
Combined 106 21–158
Takedowns
0.1
0.2
VolkovKuniev
Combined 0.7 0.0–4.0
Fight length
Expected 2.1 of 3 rounds 53% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Volkov

    Alexander Volkov lands 1.3 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Kuniev

    Rizvan Kuniev eats 0.5 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 Finish rate favours Volkov

    Alexander Volkov finishes 47% of fights, Rizvan Kuniev 33%

  • 04 Takedown defence favours Kuniev

    Rizvan Kuniev stops 92% of takedown attempts, Alexander Volkov 69%

  • 05 Striking accuracy favours Volkov

    Alexander Volkov lands 58% of significant strikes thrown, Rizvan Kuniev 48%

  • 06 Control time favours Kuniev

    Rizvan Kuniev spends 23% of fight time in control, Alexander Volkov 9%

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
Sportsbet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Aaron Pico
Aaron Pico
United States 14-5-0 Boxing Orthodox 1 win
31% | 69%
Featherweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 25 Oct · 4:00 AM AEST
LK
Losene Keita
16-2-0 MMA Orthodox 1 win
Model Favourite
Losene Keita
69.0 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Losene Keita avoids 65% of strikes thrown at them, Aaron Pico 45%
  • Losene Keita has been knocked out in 0% of fights, Aaron Pico in 50%
  • the case against Aaron Pico eats 0.9 fewer strikes per minute
  • Aaron Pico out-volumes opponents at 6.2 sig/min vs Losene Keita's 3.9
Method Breakdown
Pico Keita
KO/TKO 8.1
46.5
Submission 2.5
6.5
Decision 20.4
16.0
Finish Distribution · By Round
37
R1
18
R2
8
R3
36
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Pico Keita
Str/min 6.2
3.9
Sig Acc 54%
47%
Str Def 45%
65%
TD/min 0.44
0.00
Finish 50%
50%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
42
38
PicoKeita
Combined 85 18–155
Takedowns
1.0
0.0
PicoKeita
Combined 1.3 0.0–5.7
Fight length
Expected 1.8 of 3 rounds 36% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Pico

    Aaron Pico eats 0.9 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Pico

    Aaron Pico lands 2.2 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Takedown volume favours Pico

    Aaron Pico hits 0.44 more takedowns per minute

  • 04 Control time favours Pico

    Aaron Pico spends 30% of fight time in control, Losene Keita 2%

  • 05 Striking defence favours Keita

    Losene Keita avoids 65% of strikes thrown at them, Aaron Pico 45%

  • 06 KO durability favours Keita

    Losene Keita has been knocked out in 0% of fights, Aaron Pico in 50%

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
Sportsbet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Azamat Murzakanov
Azamat Murzakanov
Russia 16-1-0 MMA Southpaw 1 loss
44% | 56%
Light Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 25 Oct · 2:00 AM AEST
Dominick Reyes
Dominick Reyes
United States 16-5-0 Kickboxer Southpaw 1 win
Model Favourite
Dominick Reyes
56.2 %
Confidence · Medium · sub-models broadly agree
Why this pick
  • Dominick Reyes rides a 1-fight longer win streak
  • Dominick Reyes lands 0.5 more sig strikes per minute
  • Dominick Reyes wins by submission in 7% of fights, Azamat Murzakanov in 0%
  • the case against Azamat Murzakanov wins by knockout in 86% of fights, Dominick Reyes in 67%
  • Azamat Murzakanov KOs 86% of opponents — Dominick Reyes has been KO'd in 27% of losses
Method Breakdown
Murzakanov Reyes
KO/TKO 24.9
31.0
Submission 1.0
5.7
Decision 17.8
19.5
Finish Distribution · By Round
34
R1
19
R2
10
R3
37
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Murzakanov Reyes
Str/min 4.5
5.0
Sig Acc 56%
54%
Str Def 56%
50%
TD/min 0.05
0.02
Finish 86%
73%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
37
32
MurzakanovReyes
Combined 73 14–129
Takedowns
0.1
0.1
MurzakanovReyes
Combined 0.3 0.0–3.9
Fight length
Expected 1.8 of 3 rounds 37% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Reyes

    Dominick Reyes rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 02 Striking volume favours Reyes

    Dominick Reyes lands 0.5 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 KO rate favours Murzakanov

    Azamat Murzakanov wins by knockout in 86% of fights, Dominick Reyes in 67%

  • 04 Strikes absorbed favours Murzakanov

    Azamat Murzakanov eats 0.1 fewer strikes per minute

  • 05 Finish rate favours Murzakanov

    Azamat Murzakanov finishes 86% of fights, Dominick Reyes 73%

  • 06 Submission rate favours Reyes

    Dominick Reyes wins by submission in 7% of fights, Azamat Murzakanov in 0%

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
Sportsbet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Nikita Krylov
Nikita Krylov
Ukraine 31-11-0 Karate Orthodox 1 loss
15% | 85%
Light Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 25 Oct · 2:00 AM AEST
AY
Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev
3-0-0 Orthodox 3-fight win streak
Model Favourite
Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev
85.2 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev eats 0.7 fewer strikes per minute
  • Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev rides a 3-fight longer win streak
  • Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev hits 0.62 more takedowns per minute
  • Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev rides a 3-fight win streak (Nikita Krylov: 0)
Method Breakdown
Krylov Yakhyaev
KO/TKO 4.1
28.8
Submission 5.9
38.2
Decision 4.8
18.1
Finish Distribution · By Round
42
R1
24
R2
11
R3
23
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Krylov Yakhyaev
Str/min 4.4
4.9
Sig Acc 54%
58%
Str Def 48%
58%
TD/min 0.15
0.77
Finish 82%
100%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
25
33
KrylovYakhyaev
Combined 37 12–112
Takedowns
0.2
1.3
KrylovYakhyaev
Combined 1.9 0.0–5.5
Fight length
Expected 1.5 of 3 rounds 23% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Yakhyaev

    Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev eats 0.7 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Yakhyaev

    Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev rides a 3-fight longer win streak

  • 03 Takedown volume favours Yakhyaev

    Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev hits 0.62 more takedowns per minute

  • 04 Submission rate favours Yakhyaev

    Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev wins by submission in 67% of fights, Nikita Krylov in 23%

  • 05 Finish rate favours Yakhyaev

    Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev finishes 100% of fights, Nikita Krylov 82%

  • 06 Striking volume favours Yakhyaev

    Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev lands 0.5 more sig strikes per minute

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
Sportsbet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Abus Magomedov
Abus Magomedov
Russia 28-7-1 MMA Orthodox 1 win
39% | 61%
Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 25 Oct · 2:00 AM AEST
CR
Cam Rowston
Australia 15-3-0 Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 3-fight win streak
Model Favourite
Cam Rowston
61.0 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Cam Rowston eats 1.4 fewer strikes per minute
  • Cam Rowston lands 2.5 more sig strikes per minute
  • Cam Rowston rides a 2-fight longer win streak
  • the case against Abus Magomedov wins by submission in 25% of fights, Cam Rowston in 0%
  • Cam Rowston out-volumes opponents at 5.5 sig/min vs Abus Magomedov's 3.1
Method Breakdown
Magomedov Rowston
KO/TKO 12.5
27.3
Submission 8.6
10.0
Decision 17.8
23.7
Finish Distribution · By Round
32
R1
19
R2
8
R3
42
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Magomedov Rowston
Str/min 3.1
5.5
Sig Acc 49%
49%
Str Def 56%
54%
TD/min 0.17
0.11
Finish 62%
67%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
26
30
MagomedovRowston
Combined 68 18–117
Takedowns
0.5
0.3
MagomedovRowston
Combined 1.5 0.0–4.5
Fight length
Expected 1.9 of 3 rounds 42% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Rowston

    Cam Rowston eats 1.4 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Rowston

    Cam Rowston lands 2.5 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Win streak favours Rowston

    Cam Rowston rides a 2-fight longer win streak

  • 04 KO rate favours Rowston

    Cam Rowston wins by knockout in 67% of fights, Abus Magomedov in 25%

  • 05 Submission rate favours Magomedov

    Abus Magomedov wins by submission in 25% of fights, Cam Rowston in 0%

  • 06 Control time favours Rowston

    Cam Rowston spends 48% of fight time in control, Abus Magomedov 26%

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
Sportsbet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Grant Dawson
Grant Dawson
United States 24-3-1 Switch Stance 1 win
47% | 53%
Lightweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 25 Oct · 2:00 AM AEST
Nurullo Aliev
Nurullo Aliev
11-0-0 Wrestling Orthodox 4-fight win streak
Model Favourite
Nurullo Aliev
53.3 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Nurullo Aliev rides a 3-fight longer win streak
  • Nurullo Aliev eats 0.5 fewer strikes per minute
  • the case against Grant Dawson finishes 60% of fights, Nurullo Aliev 0%
  • Nurullo Aliev rides a 4-fight win streak (Grant Dawson: 1)
Method Breakdown
Dawson Aliev
KO/TKO 9.3
11.0
Submission 20.4
1.2
Decision 17.0
41.1
Finish Distribution · By Round
18
R1
16
R2
8
R3
58
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Dawson Aliev
Str/min 3.1
2.0
Sig Acc 51%
42%
Str Def 45%
56%
TD/min 0.24
0.23
Finish 60%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
24
34
DawsonAliev
Combined 65 19–114
Takedowns
1.0
1.1
DawsonAliev
Combined 2.1 0.0–5.6
Fight length
Expected 2.3 of 3 rounds 58% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Aliev

    Nurullo Aliev rides a 3-fight longer win streak

  • 02 Finish rate favours Dawson

    Grant Dawson finishes 60% of fights, Nurullo Aliev 0%

  • 03 Strikes absorbed favours Aliev

    Nurullo Aliev eats 0.5 fewer strikes per minute

  • 04 Striking volume favours Dawson

    Grant Dawson lands 1.1 more sig strikes per minute

  • 05 Submission rate favours Dawson

    Grant Dawson wins by submission in 33% of fights, Nurullo Aliev in 0%

  • 06 KO rate favours Dawson

    Grant Dawson wins by knockout in 27% of fights, Nurullo Aliev in 0%

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Colby Thicknesse
Colby Thicknesse
Australia 9-1-0 Freestyle Orthodox 2-fight win streak
61% | 39%
Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 25 Oct · 12:00 AM AEST
AC
Asaf Chopurov
Georgia 0-0-0
Model Favourite
Colby Thicknesse
60.8 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Colby Thicknesse is favoured at 61% — fight-history features sparse
  • Asaf Chopurov has no UFC fights — too little to compare fight stats, so this pick leans on age, size and pre-UFC record
Method Breakdown
Thicknesse Chopurov
KO/TKO 13.7
9.9
Submission 17.2
9.7
Decision 29.9
19.6
Finish Distribution · By Round
27
R1
15
R2
8
R3
50
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Thicknesse Chopurov
Str/min 3.2
0.0
Sig Acc 41%
0%
Str Def 54%
0%
TD/min 0.04
0.00
Finish 0%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
36
26
ThicknesseChopurov
Combined 63 17–132
Takedowns
0.3
0.2
ThicknesseChopurov
Combined 1.9 0.0–4.5
Fight length
Expected 2.1 of 3 rounds 50% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Model lean favours Thicknesse

    Colby Thicknesse is favoured at 61% — fight-history features sparse

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AV
Abubakar Vagaev
Russia 1 win
20% | 80%
Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 25 Oct · 12:00 AM AEST
Jacob Malkoun
Jacob Malkoun
Australia 10-3-0 MMA Orthodox 4-fight win streak
Model Favourite
Jacob Malkoun
80.0 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Jacob Malkoun is favoured at 80% — fight-history features sparse
  • Abubakar Vagaev has 1 UFC fight — too little to compare fight stats, so this pick leans on age, size and pre-UFC record
Method Breakdown
Vagaev Malkoun
KO/TKO 2.1
25.4
Submission 2.4
1.4
Decision 15.5
53.1
Finish Distribution · By Round
14
R1
11
R2
7
R3
69
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Vagaev Malkoun
Str/min 2.2
4.1
Sig Acc 40%
56%
Str Def 60%
55%
TD/min 0.23
0.36
Finish 14%
25%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
21
39
VagaevMalkoun
Combined 65 20–119
Takedowns
0.7
1.5
VagaevMalkoun
Combined 2.6 0.0–5.4
Fight length
Expected 2.5 of 3 rounds 69% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Model lean favours Malkoun

    Jacob Malkoun is favoured at 80% — fight-history features sparse

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Renato Moicano
Moicano
Main Event
66%
Model Leans Nolan
2026-11-01
Tom Nolan
Nolan
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan
2026
01
NOV
UPCOMING CARD

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan

Meta APEX, Las Vegas, USA
11
Bouts
Renato Moicano
Renato Moicano
Brazil 21-7-1 Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 1 win
34% | 66%
Lightweight 5 rds
⏱ Sun 1 Nov · 10:00 AM AEST
Tom Nolan
Tom Nolan
Australia 10-1-0 Southpaw 5-fight win streak
Model Favourite
Tom Nolan
66.0 %
Confidence · Medium · sub-models broadly agree
Why this pick
  • Tom Nolan rides a 4-fight longer win streak
  • Tom Nolan lands 0.6 more sig strikes per minute
  • Tom Nolan wins by knockout in 33% of fights, Renato Moicano in 25%
  • the case against Renato Moicano eats 0.2 fewer strikes per minute
  • Tom Nolan rides a 5-fight win streak (Renato Moicano: 1)
Method Breakdown
Moicano Nolan
KO/TKO 9.0
30.9
Submission 13.9
15.6
Decision 11.1
19.5
Finish Distribution · By Round
27
R1
19
R2
10
R3
8
R4
5
R5
31
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Moicano Nolan
Str/min 4.1
4.7
Sig Acc 49%
45%
Str Def 60%
48%
TD/min 0.11
0.07
Finish 70%
50%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
40
39
MoicanoNolan
Combined 88 18–204
Takedowns
0.7
0.1
MoicanoNolan
Combined 1.8 0.0–4.1
Fight length
Expected 2.7 of 5 rounds 31% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Nolan

    Tom Nolan rides a 4-fight longer win streak

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Moicano

    Renato Moicano eats 0.2 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 Striking volume favours Nolan

    Tom Nolan lands 0.6 more sig strikes per minute

  • 04 Finish rate favours Moicano

    Renato Moicano finishes 70% of fights, Tom Nolan 50%

  • 05 Submission rate favours Moicano

    Renato Moicano wins by submission in 35% of fights, Tom Nolan in 17%

  • 06 KO rate favours Nolan

    Tom Nolan wins by knockout in 33% of fights, Renato Moicano in 25%

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Carlos Leal
Carlos Leal
Brazil 23-7-0 Striker Orthodox 1 win
42% | 58%
Welterweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 1 Nov · 10:00 AM AEST
Randy Brown
Randy Brown
Jamaica 20-8-0 Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
Model Favourite
Randy Brown
58.2 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Randy Brown eats 4.4 fewer strikes per minute
  • Randy Brown wins by submission in 14% of fights, Carlos Leal in 1%
  • the case against Carlos Leal lands 4.0 more sig strikes per minute
  • Carlos Leal out-volumes opponents at 8.4 sig/min vs Randy Brown's 4.4
Method Breakdown
Leal Brown
KO/TKO 18.6
17.9
Submission 2.5
9.6
Decision 20.7
30.7
Finish Distribution · By Round
21
R1
17
R2
10
R3
51
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Leal Brown
Str/min 8.4
4.4
Sig Acc 47%
47%
Str Def 49%
54%
TD/min 0.03
0.05
Finish 50%
55%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
47
48
LealBrown
Combined 99 19–180
Takedowns
0.1
0.1
LealBrown
Combined 0.6 0.0–3.7
Fight length
Expected 2.2 of 3 rounds 51% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Brown

    Randy Brown eats 4.4 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Leal

    Carlos Leal lands 4.0 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Win streak favours Leal

    Carlos Leal rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 04 KO rate favours Leal

    Carlos Leal wins by knockout in 49% of fights, Randy Brown in 32%

  • 05 Takedown defence favours Leal

    Carlos Leal stops 91% of takedown attempts, Randy Brown 75%

  • 06 Submission rate favours Brown

    Randy Brown wins by submission in 14% of fights, Carlos Leal in 1%

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Yana Santos
Yana Santos
Russia 17-8-0 MMA Orthodox 3-fight win streak
9% | 91%
Women's Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 1 Nov · 10:00 AM AEST
Luana Santos
Luana Santos
Brazil 10-2-0 Judo Orthodox 3-fight win streak
Model Favourite
Luana Santos
90.6 %
Confidence · Medium · limited UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Luana Santos eats 0.7 fewer strikes per minute
  • Luana Santos stops 86% of takedown attempts, Yana Santos 52%
  • Luana Santos wins by submission in 29% of fights, Yana Santos in 0%
  • the case against Yana Santos lands 1.9 more sig strikes per minute
  • Yana Santos out-volumes opponents at 4.4 sig/min vs Luana Santos's 2.5
Method Breakdown
Santos Santos
KO/TKO 2.0
23.9
Submission 1.3
13.0
Decision 6.0
53.7
Finish Distribution · By Round
21
R1
12
R2
7
R3
60
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Santos Santos
Str/min 4.4
2.5
Sig Acc 58%
54%
Str Def 53%
64%
TD/min 0.05
0.14
Finish 25%
43%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
31
36
SantosSantos
Combined 68 18–124
Takedowns
0.0
2.0
SantosSantos
Combined 1.9 0.0–4.7
Fight length
Expected 2.3 of 3 rounds 60% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Santos

    Luana Santos eats 0.7 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Santos

    Yana Santos lands 1.9 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Takedown defence favours Santos

    Luana Santos stops 86% of takedown attempts, Yana Santos 52%

  • 04 Submission rate favours Santos

    Luana Santos wins by submission in 29% of fights, Yana Santos in 0%

  • 05 Finish rate favours Santos

    Luana Santos finishes 43% of fights, Yana Santos 25%

  • 06 Takedown volume favours Santos

    Luana Santos hits 0.09 more takedowns per minute

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Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani
United States 10-2-0 Freestyle Switch Stance 2-fight win streak
51% | 49%
Welterweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 1 Nov · 10:00 AM AEST
FH
Farman Hasanov
Azerbaijan 1 win
Model Favourite
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani
50.9 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Farman Hasanov has 1 UFC fight — too little to compare fight stats, so this pick leans on age, size and pre-UFC record
Method Breakdown
Lebosnoyani Hasanov
KO/TKO 18.0
22.4
Submission 21.2
0.1
Decision 11.6
26.7
Finish Distribution · By Round
32
R1
18
R2
11
R3
38
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Lebosnoyani Hasanov
Str/min 3.9
1.4
Sig Acc 45%
51%
Str Def 57%
71%
TD/min 0.20
1.13
Finish 0%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
31
33
LebosnoyaniHasanov
Combined 67 17–122
Takedowns
0.3
1.4
LebosnoyaniHasanov
Combined 1.8 0.0–5.6
Fight length
Expected 1.9 of 3 rounds 38% chance it goes the distance
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Gaston Bolanos
Gaston Bolanos
Peru 8-5-0 Striker Orthodox 1 win
24% | 76%
Featherweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 1 Nov · 7:00 AM AEST
Francis Marshall
Francis Marshall
United States 10-3-0 Freestyle Orthodox 2-fight win streak
Model Favourite
Francis Marshall
75.6 %
Confidence · Medium · limited UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Francis Marshall eats 0.4 fewer strikes per minute
  • Francis Marshall stops 89% of takedown attempts, Gaston Bolanos 50%
  • Francis Marshall rides a 1-fight longer win streak
  • the case against Gaston Bolanos lands 1.6 more sig strikes per minute
  • Francis Marshall has never been finished in 7 fights
Method Breakdown
Bolanos Marshall
KO/TKO 10.9
12.7
Submission 0.1
35.6
Decision 13.4
27.3
Finish Distribution · By Round
30
R1
18
R2
11
R3
41
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Bolanos Marshall
Str/min 3.9
2.3
Sig Acc 48%
29%
Str Def 55%
54%
TD/min 0.05
0.14
Finish 40%
43%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
43
38
BolanosMarshall
Combined 96 21–139
Takedowns
0.0
1.6
BolanosMarshall
Combined 1.9 0.0–5.0
Fight length
Expected 1.9 of 3 rounds 41% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Bolanos

    Gaston Bolanos lands 1.6 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Marshall

    Francis Marshall eats 0.4 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 Takedown defence favours Marshall

    Francis Marshall stops 89% of takedown attempts, Gaston Bolanos 50%

  • 04 Win streak favours Marshall

    Francis Marshall rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 05 Striking accuracy favours Bolanos

    Gaston Bolanos lands 48% of significant strikes thrown, Francis Marshall 29%

  • 06 Submission rate favours Marshall

    Francis Marshall wins by submission in 14% of fights, Gaston Bolanos in 0%

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Andre Petroski
Andre Petroski
United States 13-6-0 Freestyle Switch Stance 3-fight loss streak
47% | 53%
Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 1 Nov · 7:00 AM AEST
Azamat Bekoev
Azamat Bekoev
Russia 20-5-0 MMA Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
Model Favourite
Azamat Bekoev
53.5 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Azamat Bekoev lands 1.8 more sig strikes per minute
  • Azamat Bekoev finishes 100% of fights, Andre Petroski 54%
  • Azamat Bekoev wins by knockout in 75% of fights, Andre Petroski in 38%
  • the case against Andre Petroski eats 3.8 fewer strikes per minute
  • Azamat Bekoev out-volumes opponents at 4.6 sig/min vs Andre Petroski's 2.8
Method Breakdown
Petroski Bekoev
KO/TKO 13.1
28.3
Submission 14.3
7.4
Decision 19.2
17.8
Finish Distribution · By Round
34
R1
20
R2
8
R3
37
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Petroski Bekoev
Str/min 2.8
4.6
Sig Acc 49%
52%
Str Def 52%
31%
TD/min 0.21
0.23
Finish 54%
100%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
27
32
PetroskiBekoev
Combined 61 16–127
Takedowns
1.0
0.0
PetroskiBekoev
Combined 1.6 0.0–4.9
Fight length
Expected 1.8 of 3 rounds 37% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Petroski

    Andre Petroski eats 3.8 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Bekoev

    Azamat Bekoev lands 1.8 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Finish rate favours Bekoev

    Azamat Bekoev finishes 100% of fights, Andre Petroski 54%

  • 04 KO rate favours Bekoev

    Azamat Bekoev wins by knockout in 75% of fights, Andre Petroski in 38%

  • 05 Takedown defence favours Petroski

    Andre Petroski stops 86% of takedown attempts, Azamat Bekoev 62%

  • 06 Submission rate favours Petroski

    Andre Petroski wins by submission in 15% of fights, Azamat Bekoev in 0%

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TB
Theodor Berggren
Sweden 8-4-0 MMA Switch Stance 1 loss
58% | 42%
Welterweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 1 Nov · 7:00 AM AEST
Rodrigo Sezinando
Rodrigo Sezinando
Brazil 9-2-0 MMA Orthodox 1 loss
Model Favourite
Theodor Berggren
58.0 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Theodor Berggren is favoured at 58% — fight-history features sparse
  • Theodor Berggren has 1 UFC fight — too little to compare fight stats, so this pick leans on age, size and pre-UFC record
Method Breakdown
Berggren Sezinando
KO/TKO 24.2
8.8
Submission 6.8
4.9
Decision 27.0
28.3
Finish Distribution · By Round
22
R1
15
R2
7
R3
55
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Berggren Sezinando
Str/min 3.5
2.5
Sig Acc 38%
32%
Str Def 34%
43%
TD/min 0.02
0.20
Finish 88%
88%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
37
29
BerggrenSezinando
Combined 74 16–142
Takedowns
0.1
0.7
BerggrenSezinando
Combined 1.8 0.0–5.2
Fight length
Expected 2.2 of 3 rounds 55% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Model lean favours Berggren

    Theodor Berggren is favoured at 58% — fight-history features sparse

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Julian Erosa
Julian Erosa
United States 31-14-0 Striker Southpaw 2-fight loss streak
55% | 45%
Featherweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 1 Nov · 7:00 AM AEST
JeongYeong Lee
JeongYeong Lee
South Korea 11-3-0 Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
Model Favourite
Julian Erosa
55.5 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Julian Erosa lands 2.9 more sig strikes per minute
  • Julian Erosa finishes 72% of fights, JeongYeong Lee 26%
  • Julian Erosa wins by knockout in 50% of fights, JeongYeong Lee in 25%
  • the case against JeongYeong Lee eats 2.4 fewer strikes per minute
  • Julian Erosa out-volumes opponents at 6.1 sig/min vs JeongYeong Lee's 3.2
Method Breakdown
Erosa Lee
KO/TKO 13.4
17.0
Submission 13.0
4.8
Decision 29.1
22.7
Finish Distribution · By Round
27
R1
14
R2
7
R3
52
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Erosa Lee
Str/min 6.1
3.2
Sig Acc 48%
49%
Str Def 49%
51%
TD/min 0.12
0.05
Finish 72%
26%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
42
36
ErosaLee
Combined 80 19–167
Takedowns
0.6
0.1
ErosaLee
Combined 1.0 0.0–4.2
Fight length
Expected 2.1 of 3 rounds 52% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Lee

    JeongYeong Lee eats 2.4 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Erosa

    Julian Erosa lands 2.9 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Finish rate favours Erosa

    Julian Erosa finishes 72% of fights, JeongYeong Lee 26%

  • 04 KO rate favours Erosa

    Julian Erosa wins by knockout in 50% of fights, JeongYeong Lee in 25%

  • 05 Submission rate favours Erosa

    Julian Erosa wins by submission in 22% of fights, JeongYeong Lee in 1%

  • 06 Takedown volume favours Erosa

    Julian Erosa hits 0.07 more takedowns per minute

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JK
Joe Kropschot
61% | 39%
Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 1 Nov · 7:00 AM AEST
Nick Klein
Nick Klein
United States 6-3-0 Freestyle Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
Model Favourite
Joe Kropschot
61.4 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Joe Kropschot is favoured at 61% — fight-history features sparse
  • Joe Kropschot has no UFC fights — too little to compare fight stats, so this pick leans on age, size and pre-UFC record
Method Breakdown
Kropschot Klein
KO/TKO 30.9
11.3
Submission 10.3
12.1
Decision 20.2
15.2
Finish Distribution · By Round
36
R1
19
R2
9
R3
35
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Kropschot Klein
Str/min 0.0
2.7
Sig Acc 0%
55%
Str Def 0%
39%
TD/min 0.00
0.29
Finish 0%
93%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
18
17
KropschotKlein
Combined 45 13–108
Takedowns
0.1
1.2
KropschotKlein
Combined 2.1 0.0–4.9
Fight length
Expected 1.8 of 3 rounds 35% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Model lean favours Kropschot

    Joe Kropschot is favoured at 61% — fight-history features sparse

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Piera Rodriguez
Piera Rodriguez
Venezuela 12-2-0 Striker Orthodox 3-fight win streak
59% | 41%
Women's Strawweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 1 Nov · 7:00 AM AEST
Talita Alencar
Talita Alencar
Brazil 8-1-1 Grappler Orthodox 3-fight win streak
Model Favourite
Piera Rodriguez
59.2 %
Confidence · Medium · limited UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Piera Rodriguez lands 0.9 more sig strikes per minute
  • Piera Rodriguez hits 0.11 more takedowns per minute
  • Piera Rodriguez lands 48% of significant strikes thrown, Talita Alencar 36%
  • the case against Talita Alencar eats 0.1 fewer strikes per minute
  • Talita Alencar has never been finished in 5 fights
Method Breakdown
Rodriguez Alencar
KO/TKO 7.0
2.0
Submission 6.7
9.7
Decision 45.5
29.1
Finish Distribution · By Round
13
R1
8
R2
5
R3
75
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Rodriguez Alencar
Str/min 4.2
3.2
Sig Acc 48%
36%
Str Def 50%
54%
TD/min 0.30
0.19
Finish 17%
20%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
54
45
RodriguezAlencar
Combined 126 22–152
Takedowns
1.1
0.9
RodriguezAlencar
Combined 2.0 0.0–5.0
Fight length
Expected 2.5 of 3 rounds 75% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Rodriguez

    Piera Rodriguez lands 0.9 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Alencar

    Talita Alencar eats 0.1 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 Submission rate favours Alencar

    Talita Alencar wins by submission in 20% of fights, Piera Rodriguez in 0%

  • 04 Takedown volume favours Rodriguez

    Piera Rodriguez hits 0.11 more takedowns per minute

  • 05 Takedown defence favours Alencar

    Talita Alencar stops 100% of takedown attempts, Piera Rodriguez 82%

  • 06 Striking accuracy favours Rodriguez

    Piera Rodriguez lands 48% of significant strikes thrown, Talita Alencar 36%

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Tainara Lisboa
Tainara Lisboa
Brazil 7-4-0 Muay Thai Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
46% | 54%
Women's Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 1 Nov · 7:00 AM AEST
LS
Lucia Szabova
0-0-0
Model Favourite
Lucia Szabova
53.5 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Lucia Szabova is favoured at 54% — fight-history features sparse
  • Lucia Szabova has no UFC fights — too little to compare fight stats, so this pick leans on age, size and pre-UFC record
Method Breakdown
Lisboa Szabova
KO/TKO 6.3
17.3
Submission 17.5
13.3
Decision 22.7
22.9
Finish Distribution · By Round
30
R1
17
R2
8
R3
46
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Lisboa Szabova
Str/min 2.1
0.0
Sig Acc 44%
0%
Str Def 46%
0%
TD/min 0.11
0.00
Finish 73%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
24
26
LisboaSzabova
Combined 62 15–120
Takedowns
1.0
0.2
LisboaSzabova
Combined 1.8 0.0–4.5
Fight length
Expected 2.0 of 3 rounds 46% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Model lean favours Szabova

    Lucia Szabova is favoured at 54% — fight-history features sparse

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Sean Brady
Brady
Main Event
55%
Model Leans Bonfim
2026-11-08
Gabriel Bonfim
Bonfim
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady
2026
08
NOV
UPCOMING CARD

UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady

Meta APEX, Las Vegas, USA
13
Bouts
Sean Brady
Sean Brady
United States 19-2-0 Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 1 win
45% | 55%
Welterweight 5 rds
⏱ Sun 8 Nov · 11:00 AM AEST
Gabriel Bonfim
Gabriel Bonfim
Brazil 19-1-0 Striker Orthodox 5-fight win streak
Model Favourite
Gabriel Bonfim
54.9 %
Confidence · Medium · sub-models broadly agree
Why this pick
  • Gabriel Bonfim rides a 4-fight longer win streak
  • Gabriel Bonfim lands 0.6 more sig strikes per minute
  • Gabriel Bonfim finishes 62% of fights, Sean Brady 55%
  • the case against Sean Brady eats 0.8 fewer strikes per minute
  • Gabriel Bonfim rides a 5-fight win streak (Sean Brady: 1)
Method Breakdown
Brady Bonfim
KO/TKO 8.8
23.2
Submission 10.3
9.4
Decision 26.0
22.3
Finish Distribution · By Round
15
R1
15
R2
10
R3
7
R4
5
R5
48
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Brady Bonfim
Str/min 4.1
4.7
Sig Acc 53%
48%
Str Def 60%
64%
TD/min 0.24
0.17
Finish 55%
62%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
62
47
BradyBonfim
Combined 107 19–221
Takedowns
1.2
0.1
BradyBonfim
Combined 1.9 0.0–5.5
Fight length
Expected 3.4 of 5 rounds 48% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Bonfim

    Gabriel Bonfim rides a 4-fight longer win streak

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Brady

    Sean Brady eats 0.8 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 Striking volume favours Bonfim

    Gabriel Bonfim lands 0.6 more sig strikes per minute

  • 04 Control time favours Brady

    Sean Brady spends 47% of fight time in control, Gabriel Bonfim 15%

  • 05 Finish rate favours Bonfim

    Gabriel Bonfim finishes 62% of fights, Sean Brady 55%

  • 06 Takedown volume favours Brady

    Sean Brady hits 0.07 more takedowns per minute

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Tatiana Suarez
Tatiana Suarez
United States 13-1-0 MMA Southpaw 2-fight win streak
61% | 39%
Women's Strawweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 8 Nov · 11:00 AM AEST
Virna Jandiroba
Virna Jandiroba
Brazil 23-4-0 Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 1 win
Model Favourite
Tatiana Suarez
61.0 %
Confidence · High · sub-models agree closely
Why this pick
  • Tatiana Suarez eats 1.2 fewer strikes per minute
  • Tatiana Suarez finishes 60% of fights, Virna Jandiroba 31%
  • Tatiana Suarez rides a 1-fight longer win streak
  • Virna Jandiroba has never been finished in 13 fights
Method Breakdown
Suarez Jandiroba
KO/TKO 6.2
3.7
Submission 8.8
13.0
Decision 46.0
22.3
Finish Distribution · By Round
11
R1
10
R2
11
R3
68
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Suarez Jandiroba
Str/min 2.9
2.3
Sig Acc 60%
41%
Str Def 44%
56%
TD/min 0.30
0.21
Finish 60%
31%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
37
27
SuarezJandiroba
Combined 67 19–128
Takedowns
1.8
0.9
SuarezJandiroba
Combined 2.5 0.0–6.0
Fight length
Expected 2.5 of 3 rounds 68% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Suarez

    Tatiana Suarez eats 1.2 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Finish rate favours Suarez

    Tatiana Suarez finishes 60% of fights, Virna Jandiroba 31%

  • 03 Win streak favours Suarez

    Tatiana Suarez rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 04 Striking volume favours Suarez

    Tatiana Suarez lands 0.6 more sig strikes per minute

  • 05 Submission rate favours Suarez

    Tatiana Suarez wins by submission in 50% of fights, Virna Jandiroba in 23%

  • 06 Striking accuracy favours Suarez

    Tatiana Suarez lands 60% of significant strikes thrown, Virna Jandiroba 41%

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Davey Grant
Davey Grant
England 17-8-0 MMA Orthodox 1 win
22% | 78%
Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 8 Nov · 8:00 AM AEST
Elijah Smith
Elijah Smith
United States 10-1-0 Freestyle Orthodox 3-fight win streak
Model Favourite
Elijah Smith
77.6 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Elijah Smith eats 2.3 fewer strikes per minute
  • Elijah Smith rides a 2-fight longer win streak
  • Elijah Smith wins by submission in 31% of fights, Davey Grant in 6%
  • the case against Davey Grant lands 1.9 more sig strikes per minute
  • Elijah Smith rides a 3-fight win streak (Davey Grant: 1)
Method Breakdown
Grant Smith
KO/TKO 8.1
10.9
Submission 6.9
36.1
Decision 7.3
30.6
Finish Distribution · By Round
30
R1
21
R2
10
R3
38
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Grant Smith
Str/min 5.6
3.7
Sig Acc 45%
53%
Str Def 55%
52%
TD/min 0.06
0.12
Finish 50%
64%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
32
41
GrantSmith
Combined 76 15–160
Takedowns
0.2
0.9
GrantSmith
Combined 1.6 0.0–4.6
Fight length
Expected 1.9 of 3 rounds 38% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Smith

    Elijah Smith eats 2.3 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Grant

    Davey Grant lands 1.9 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Win streak favours Smith

    Elijah Smith rides a 2-fight longer win streak

  • 04 Submission rate favours Smith

    Elijah Smith wins by submission in 31% of fights, Davey Grant in 6%

  • 05 Finish rate favours Smith

    Elijah Smith finishes 64% of fights, Davey Grant 50%

  • 06 Takedown defence favours Grant

    Davey Grant stops 65% of takedown attempts, Elijah Smith 46%

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Wellington Turman
Wellington Turman
Brazil 18-8-0 Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 3-fight loss streak
23% | 77%
Welterweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 8 Nov · 8:00 AM AEST
Seokhyeon Ko
Seokhyeon Ko
South Korea 13-2-0 Judo Southpaw 1 loss
Model Favourite
Seokhyeon Ko
76.6 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Seokhyeon Ko eats 2.7 fewer strikes per minute
  • Seokhyeon Ko hits 0.10 more takedowns per minute
  • Seokhyeon Ko avoids 65% of strikes thrown at them, Wellington Turman 45%
  • the case against Wellington Turman finishes 44% of fights, Seokhyeon Ko 6%
  • layoff Turman hasn't fought since Dec 2023 — ring rust is hard to price, so the model widens its uncertainty here
  • Seokhyeon Ko has never been finished in 3 fights
Method Breakdown
Turman Ko
KO/TKO 4.3
7.8
Submission 4.2
7.6
Decision 14.9
61.1
Finish Distribution · By Round
12
R1
8
R2
4
R3
76
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Turman Ko
Str/min 3.2
3.0
Sig Acc 51%
49%
Str Def 45%
65%
TD/min 0.10
0.21
Finish 44%
6%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
23
33
TurmanKo
Combined 69 19–115
Takedowns
0.5
1.7
TurmanKo
Combined 2.4 0.0–5.2
Fight length
Expected 2.6 of 3 rounds 76% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Ko

    Seokhyeon Ko eats 2.7 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Finish rate favours Turman

    Wellington Turman finishes 44% of fights, Seokhyeon Ko 6%

  • 03 KO rate favours Turman

    Wellington Turman wins by knockout in 22% of fights, Seokhyeon Ko in 4%

  • 04 Takedown volume favours Ko

    Seokhyeon Ko hits 0.10 more takedowns per minute

  • 05 Striking defence favours Ko

    Seokhyeon Ko avoids 65% of strikes thrown at them, Wellington Turman 45%

  • 06 Loss streak favours Ko

    Wellington Turman is on a losing run 2 fight(s) longer than Seokhyeon Ko

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Billy Elekana
Billy Elekana
United States 10-2-0 MMA Southpaw 3-fight win streak
52% | 48%
Light Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 8 Nov · 11:00 AM AEST
LF
Lucas Fernando
Brazil 14-3-0 Striker 1 win
Model Favourite
Billy Elekana
51.9 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Lucas Fernando has 1 UFC fight — too little to compare fight stats, so this pick leans on age, size and pre-UFC record
Method Breakdown
Elekana Fernando
KO/TKO 23.8
21.4
Submission 15.2
6.2
Decision 12.8
20.5
Finish Distribution · By Round
36
R1
20
R2
11
R3
33
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Elekana Fernando
Str/min 2.7
5.5
Sig Acc 56%
57%
Str Def 46%
77%
TD/min 0.06
0.02
Finish 75%
91%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
22
24
ElekanaFernando
Combined 56 14–122
Takedowns
0.1
0.1
ElekanaFernando
Combined 1.5 0.0–4.1
Fight length
Expected 1.8 of 3 rounds 33% chance it goes the distance
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Wes Schultz
Wes Schultz
United States 9-3-0 MMA Orthodox 1 loss
17% | 83%
Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 8 Nov · 11:00 AM AEST
Mantas Kondratavicius
Mantas Kondratavicius
9-1-0 MMA Orthodox 1 win
Model Favourite
Mantas Kondratavicius
83.3 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Mantas Kondratavicius is favoured at 83% — fight-history features sparse
  • Mantas Kondratavicius has 1 UFC fight — too little to compare fight stats, so this pick leans on age, size and pre-UFC record
Method Breakdown
Schultz Kondratavicius
KO/TKO 2.3
24.7
Submission 8.0
8.6
Decision 6.3
50.0
Finish Distribution · By Round
24
R1
13
R2
6
R3
56
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Schultz Kondratavicius
Str/min 2.1
4.6
Sig Acc 53%
64%
Str Def 44%
56%
TD/min 0.05
0.12
Finish 100%
14%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
19
28
SchultzKondratavicius
Combined 49 14–112
Takedowns
0.4
0.7
SchultzKondratavicius
Combined 1.9 0.0–4.6
Fight length
Expected 2.2 of 3 rounds 56% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Model lean favours Kondratavicius

    Mantas Kondratavicius is favoured at 83% — fight-history features sparse

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GL
Gabriel Lorenco
Brazil 1-0-0
55% | 45%
Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 8 Nov · 8:00 AM AEST
Alvin Hines
Alvin Hines
United States 7-1-0 MMA Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
Model Favourite
Gabriel Lorenco
55.2 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Gabriel Lorenco is favoured at 55% — fight-history features sparse
  • Gabriel Lorenco has no UFC fights — too little to compare fight stats, so this pick leans on age, size and pre-UFC record
Method Breakdown
Lorenco Hines
KO/TKO 27.8
25.9
Submission 8.9
6.1
Decision 18.5
12.8
Finish Distribution · By Round
37
R1
21
R2
10
R3
31
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Lorenco Hines
Str/min 0.0
5.6
Sig Acc 0%
33%
Str Def 0%
39%
TD/min 0.00
0.06
Finish 0%
50%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
26
35
LorencoHines
Combined 70 15–154
Takedowns
0.0
0.2
LorencoHines
Combined 0.4 0.0–4.2
Fight length
Expected 1.7 of 3 rounds 31% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Model lean favours Lorenco

    Gabriel Lorenco is favoured at 55% — fight-history features sparse

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Karine Silva
Karine Silva
Brazil 19-7-0 Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
81% | 19%
Women's Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 8 Nov · 8:00 AM AEST
Gabriella Fernandes
Gabriella Fernandes
Brazil 11-4-0 Striker Southpaw 1 loss
Model Favourite
Karine Silva
81.3 %
Confidence · Medium · limited UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Karine Silva eats 2.7 fewer strikes per minute
  • Karine Silva wins by submission in 38% of fights, Gabriella Fernandes in 17%
  • Karine Silva hits 0.11 more takedowns per minute
  • the case against Gabriella Fernandes lands 1.2 more sig strikes per minute
  • Karine Silva has never been finished in 8 fights
Method Breakdown
Silva Fernandes
KO/TKO 30.4
3.8
Submission 13.9
3.3
Decision 37.0
11.6
Finish Distribution · By Round
28
R1
16
R2
8
R3
49
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Silva Fernandes
Str/min 2.3
3.5
Sig Acc 40%
47%
Str Def 54%
53%
TD/min 0.14
0.03
Finish 38%
33%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
39
37
SilvaFernandes
Combined 75 20–131
Takedowns
1.1
0.1
SilvaFernandes
Combined 1.9 0.0–4.5
Fight length
Expected 2.0 of 3 rounds 49% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Silva

    Karine Silva eats 2.7 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Fernandes

    Gabriella Fernandes lands 1.2 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Takedown defence favours Fernandes

    Gabriella Fernandes stops 69% of takedown attempts, Karine Silva 29%

  • 04 Submission rate favours Silva

    Karine Silva wins by submission in 38% of fights, Gabriella Fernandes in 17%

  • 05 KO rate favours Fernandes

    Gabriella Fernandes wins by knockout in 17% of fights, Karine Silva in 0%

  • 06 Takedown volume favours Silva

    Karine Silva hits 0.11 more takedowns per minute

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Jose Delano
Jose Delano
Brazil 17-3-0 Striker Orthodox 1 win
12% | 88%
Featherweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 8 Nov · 8:00 AM AEST
MM
Murtazali Magomedov
Kyrgyzstan 1-0-0 Orthodox 1 win
Model Favourite
Murtazali Magomedov
88.2 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Murtazali Magomedov is favoured at 88% — fight-history features sparse
  • Jose Delano has 1 UFC fight — too little to compare fight stats, so this pick leans on age, size and pre-UFC record
Method Breakdown
Delano Magomedov
KO/TKO 2.9
20.9
Submission 0.4
29.8
Decision 8.5
37.4
Finish Distribution · By Round
28
R1
16
R2
9
R3
46
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Delano Magomedov
Str/min 6.3
3.9
Sig Acc 58%
71%
Str Def 66%
77%
TD/min 0.03
0.78
Finish 11%
100%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
32
41
DelanoMagomedov
Combined 67 15–146
Takedowns
0.0
1.7
DelanoMagomedov
Combined 1.7 0.0–5.1
Fight length
Expected 2.0 of 3 rounds 46% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Model lean favours Magomedov

    Murtazali Magomedov is favoured at 88% — fight-history features sparse

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Keiichiro Nakamura
Keiichiro Nakamura
Japan 8-1-0 Striker Southpaw 1 win
64% | 36%
Featherweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 8 Nov · 8:00 AM AEST
Ollie Schmid
Ollie Schmid
United States 4-3-0 Striker 1 loss
Model Favourite
Keiichiro Nakamura
64.2 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Keiichiro Nakamura is favoured at 64% — fight-history features sparse
  • Keiichiro Nakamura has 1 UFC fight — too little to compare fight stats, so this pick leans on age, size and pre-UFC record
Method Breakdown
Nakamura Schmid
KO/TKO 31.8
9.2
Submission 5.8
7.8
Decision 26.6
18.8
Finish Distribution · By Round
29
R1
17
R2
8
R3
45
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Nakamura Schmid
Str/min 3.4
3.4
Sig Acc 39%
33%
Str Def 61%
45%
TD/min 0.03
0.03
Finish 87%
87%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
32
32
NakamuraSchmid
Combined 73 13–143
Takedowns
0.0
0.0
NakamuraSchmid
Combined 1.1 0.0–4.5
Fight length
Expected 2.0 of 3 rounds 45% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Model lean favours Nakamura

    Keiichiro Nakamura is favoured at 64% — fight-history features sparse

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Lucas Brennan
Lucas Brennan
United States 11-3-0 Grappler Southpaw 1 loss
27% | 73%
Featherweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 8 Nov · 11:00 AM AEST
Austin Bashi
Austin Bashi
United States 14-1-0 Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 1 loss
Model Favourite
Austin Bashi
73.4 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Austin Bashi is favoured at 73% — fight-history features sparse
  • Lucas Brennan has 1 UFC fight — too little to compare fight stats, so this pick leans on age, size and pre-UFC record
Method Breakdown
Brennan Bashi
KO/TKO 4.1
9.0
Submission 7.1
30.1
Decision 15.4
34.2
Finish Distribution · By Round
21
R1
14
R2
15
R3
50
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Brennan Bashi
Str/min 0.6
1.9
Sig Acc 25%
40%
Str Def 52%
54%
TD/min 0.00
0.20
Finish 0%
35%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
27
25
BrennanBashi
Combined 56 17–117
Takedowns
0.1
1.8
BrennanBashi
Combined 2.6 0.0–5.6
Fight length
Expected 2.2 of 3 rounds 50% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Model lean favours Bashi

    Austin Bashi is favoured at 73% — fight-history features sparse

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Priscila Cachoeira
Priscila Cachoeira
Brazil 13-8-0 Brawler Orthodox 3-fight loss streak
20% | 80%
Women's Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 8 Nov · 8:00 AM AEST
NM
Nina Milosevic
9-1-0 Freestyle 1 win
Model Favourite
Nina Milosevic
79.7 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Nina Milosevic is favoured at 80% — fight-history features sparse
  • Nina Milosevic has 1 UFC fight — too little to compare fight stats, so this pick leans on age, size and pre-UFC record
Method Breakdown
Cachoeira Milosevic
KO/TKO 8.0
36.5
Submission 0.6
9.5
Decision 11.8
33.7
Finish Distribution · By Round
31
R1
16
R2
7
R3
45
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Cachoeira Milosevic
Str/min 4.3
5.2
Sig Acc 44%
52%
Str Def 46%
73%
TD/min 0.02
0.02
Finish 71%
85%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
40
44
CachoeiraMilosevic
Combined 79 15–161
Takedowns
0.1
0.0
CachoeiraMilosevic
Combined 0.9 0.0–4.0
Fight length
Expected 1.9 of 3 rounds 45% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Model lean favours Milosevic

    Nina Milosevic is favoured at 80% — fight-history features sparse

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JP
Jonny Parsons
United States 9-3-0 Muay Thai Orthodox 1 win
66% | 34%
Welterweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 8 Nov · 8:00 AM AEST
Jose Henrique
Jose Henrique
Brazil 0-1-0
Model Favourite
Jonny Parsons
65.7 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Jonny Parsons is favoured at 66% — fight-history features sparse
  • Jonny Parsons has 1 UFC fight — too little to compare fight stats, so this pick leans on age, size and pre-UFC record
Method Breakdown
Parsons Henrique
KO/TKO 28.3
13.3
Submission 13.8
6.9
Decision 23.7
14.0
Finish Distribution · By Round
38
R1
17
R2
8
R3
38
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Parsons Henrique
Str/min 5.6
0.0
Sig Acc 49%
0%
Str Def 67%
0%
TD/min 0.02
0.00
Finish 88%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
26
19
ParsonsHenrique
Combined 60 16–136
Takedowns
0.0
0.0
ParsonsHenrique
Combined 1.3 0.0–4.6
Fight length
Expected 1.8 of 3 rounds 38% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Model lean favours Parsons

    Jonny Parsons is favoured at 66% — fight-history features sparse

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Josh Hokit
Hokit
Title · Main Event
64%
Model Leans Gane
2026-11-15
Ciryl Gane
Gane
UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit
2026
15
NOV
UPCOMING CARD

UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit

Madison Square Garden, New York, USA
12
Bouts
Josh Hokit
Josh Hokit
United States 9-0-0 Wrestling Orthodox 4-fight win streak
SB 3.01
36% | 64%
Heavyweight 5 rds
⏱ Sun 15 Nov · 2:30 PM AEST
Ciryl Gane
C Ciryl Gane
France 13-2-0 Muay Thai Orthodox 1 win
SB 1.35
Model Favourite
Ciryl Gane
63.6 %
Market · 69% on Gane · Moirai −5 pts
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Ciryl Gane eats 3.8 fewer strikes per minute
  • the case against Josh Hokit lands 4.9 more sig strikes per minute
  • Josh Hokit out-volumes opponents at 10.3 sig/min vs Ciryl Gane's 5.4
Method Breakdown
Hokit Gane
KO/TKO 16.8
27.8
Submission 7.7
10.2
Decision 11.9
25.7
Finish Distribution · By Round
24
R1
17
R2
10
R3
7
R4
5
R5
38
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Hokit Gane
Str/min 10.3
5.4
Sig Acc 64%
62%
Str Def 48%
61%
TD/min 0.10
0.04
Finish 75%
57%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
46
55
HokitGane
Combined 102 19–219
Takedowns
0.5
0.4
HokitGane
Combined 0.8 0.0–4.3
Fight length
Expected 3.0 of 5 rounds 38% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Gane

    Ciryl Gane eats 3.8 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Hokit

    Josh Hokit lands 4.9 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Win streak favours Hokit

    Josh Hokit rides a 3-fight longer win streak

  • 04 KO rate favours Hokit

    Josh Hokit wins by knockout in 75% of fights, Ciryl Gane in 36%

  • 05 Takedown defence favours Hokit

    Josh Hokit stops 78% of takedown attempts, Ciryl Gane 47%

  • 06 Finish rate favours Hokit

    Josh Hokit finishes 75% of fights, Ciryl Gane 57%

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed
No markets passed the value gate. 2 markets analysed.
Amanda Nunes
Amanda Nunes
Brazil 23-5-0 Striker Orthodox 2-fight win streak
SB 2.57
26% | 74%
Women's Bantamweight 5 rds
⏱ Sun 15 Nov · 1:45 PM AEST
Kayla Harrison
C Kayla Harrison
United States 19-1-0 Judo Southpaw 3-fight win streak
SB 1.47
Model Favourite
Kayla Harrison
73.9 %
Market · 64% on Harrison · Moirai +10 pts
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Kayla Harrison eats 1.3 fewer strikes per minute
  • Kayla Harrison wins by submission in 67% of fights, Amanda Nunes in 17%
  • Kayla Harrison rides a 1-fight longer win streak
  • the case against Amanda Nunes wins by knockout in 44% of fights, Kayla Harrison in 0%
  • Amanda Nunes has a 15-fight UFC experience edge (18 vs 3)
Method Breakdown
Nunes Harrison
KO/TKO 12.6
20.5
Submission 3.5
16.7
Decision 9.9
36.6
Finish Distribution · By Round
15
R1
15
R2
10
R3
7
R4
5
R5
47
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Nunes Harrison
Str/min 4.5
4.3
Sig Acc 52%
62%
Str Def 59%
66%
TD/min 0.19
0.19
Finish 67%
67%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
40
42
NunesHarrison
Combined 87 19–189
Takedowns
0.3
1.1
NunesHarrison
Combined 1.7 0.0–5.6
Fight length
Expected 3.4 of 5 rounds 47% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Harrison

    Kayla Harrison eats 1.3 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Submission rate favours Harrison

    Kayla Harrison wins by submission in 67% of fights, Amanda Nunes in 17%

  • 03 KO rate favours Nunes

    Amanda Nunes wins by knockout in 44% of fights, Kayla Harrison in 0%

  • 04 Win streak favours Harrison

    Kayla Harrison rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 05 Takedown defence favours Harrison

    Kayla Harrison stops 100% of takedown attempts, Amanda Nunes 81%

  • 06 Striking volume favours Nunes

    Amanda Nunes lands 0.2 more sig strikes per minute

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed
No markets passed the value gate. 2 markets analysed.
Caio Borralho
Caio Borralho
Brazil 18-2-0 MMA Southpaw 1 win
48% | 52%
Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 15 Nov · 12:00 PM AEST
Yousri Belgaroui
Yousri Belgaroui
Netherlands 9-3-0 Striker Orthodox 3-fight win streak
Model Favourite
Yousri Belgaroui
52.0 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Yousri Belgaroui lands 5.0 more sig strikes per minute
  • Yousri Belgaroui finishes 100% of fights, Caio Borralho 22%
  • Yousri Belgaroui eats 0.7 fewer strikes per minute
  • the case against Caio Borralho stops 74% of takedown attempts, Yousri Belgaroui 56%
  • Yousri Belgaroui out-volumes opponents at 8.3 sig/min vs Caio Borralho's 3.3
Method Breakdown
Borralho Belgaroui
KO/TKO 13.0
28.1
Submission 19.0
1.2
Decision 16.0
22.6
Finish Distribution · By Round
33
R1
19
R2
10
R3
39
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Borralho Belgaroui
Str/min 3.3
8.3
Sig Acc 55%
65%
Str Def 60%
70%
TD/min 0.07
0.03
Finish 22%
100%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
33
44
BorralhoBelgaroui
Combined 94 20–138
Takedowns
0.9
0.0
BorralhoBelgaroui
Combined 1.5 0.0–4.3
Fight length
Expected 1.9 of 3 rounds 39% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Belgaroui

    Yousri Belgaroui lands 5.0 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Finish rate favours Belgaroui

    Yousri Belgaroui finishes 100% of fights, Caio Borralho 22%

  • 03 Strikes absorbed favours Belgaroui

    Yousri Belgaroui eats 0.7 fewer strikes per minute

  • 04 KO rate favours Belgaroui

    Yousri Belgaroui wins by knockout in 100% of fights, Caio Borralho in 11%

  • 05 Win streak favours Belgaroui

    Yousri Belgaroui rides a 2-fight longer win streak

  • 06 Takedown defence favours Borralho

    Caio Borralho stops 74% of takedown attempts, Yousri Belgaroui 56%

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Kevin Holland
Kevin Holland
United States 29-15-0 Kung Fu Orthodox 1 win
55% | 45%
Welterweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 15 Nov · 12:00 PM AEST
Uros Medic
Uros Medic
Serbia 13-3-0 MMA Southpaw 4-fight win streak
Model Favourite
Kevin Holland
54.6 %
Confidence · Low · sub-models disagree
Why this pick
  • Kevin Holland eats 0.2 fewer strikes per minute
  • Kevin Holland wins by submission in 21% of fights, Uros Medic in 0%
  • the case against Uros Medic rides a 3-fight longer win streak
  • Uros Medic rides a 4-fight win streak (Kevin Holland: 1)
Method Breakdown
Holland Medic
KO/TKO 31.5
23.7
Submission 14.6
1.8
Decision 8.5
20.0
Finish Distribution · By Round
39
R1
22
R2
10
R3
28
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Holland Medic
Str/min 4.2
5.3
Sig Acc 50%
58%
Str Def 50%
56%
TD/min 0.06
0.02
Finish 55%
100%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
39
32
HollandMedic
Combined 68 16–136
Takedowns
0.2
0.0
HollandMedic
Combined 0.9 0.0–3.7
Fight length
Expected 1.6 of 3 rounds 28% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Medic

    Uros Medic rides a 3-fight longer win streak

  • 02 Finish rate favours Medic

    Uros Medic finishes 100% of fights, Kevin Holland 55%

  • 03 Striking volume favours Medic

    Uros Medic lands 1.1 more sig strikes per minute

  • 04 KO rate favours Medic

    Uros Medic wins by knockout in 82% of fights, Kevin Holland in 24%

  • 05 Strikes absorbed favours Holland

    Kevin Holland eats 0.2 fewer strikes per minute

  • 06 Submission rate favours Holland

    Kevin Holland wins by submission in 21% of fights, Uros Medic in 0%

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Luis Gurule
Luis Gurule
United States 10-3-0 Orthodox 1 loss
27% | 73%
Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 15 Nov · 12:00 PM AEST
BH
Bilal Hasan
United States 1-0-0 1 win
Model Favourite
Bilal Hasan
73.4 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Bilal Hasan is favoured at 73% — fight-history features sparse
  • Bilal Hasan has 1 UFC fight — too little to compare fight stats, so this pick leans on age, size and pre-UFC record
Method Breakdown
Gurule Hasan
KO/TKO 11.1
25.3
Submission 2.8
13.6
Decision 12.7
34.5
Finish Distribution · By Round
30
R1
16
R2
7
R3
47
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Gurule Hasan
Str/min 5.0
6.2
Sig Acc 41%
42%
Str Def 57%
50%
TD/min 0.05
0.13
Finish 40%
87%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
40
43
GuruleHasan
Combined 82 17–156
Takedowns
0.1
0.2
GuruleHasan
Combined 1.5 0.0–4.5
Fight length
Expected 2.0 of 3 rounds 47% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Model lean favours Hasan

    Bilal Hasan is favoured at 73% — fight-history features sparse

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Stephen Thompson
Stephen Thompson
United States 17-9-1 Karate Orthodox 3-fight loss streak
25% | 75%
Welterweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 15 Nov · 10:00 AM AEST
Charles Radtke
Charles Radtke
United States 12-5-0 Orthodox 2-fight win streak
Model Favourite
Charles Radtke
75.2 %
Confidence · Medium · limited UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Charles Radtke eats 0.5 fewer strikes per minute
  • Charles Radtke rides a 2-fight longer win streak
  • Charles Radtke finishes 71% of fights, Stephen Thompson 41%
  • the case against Stephen Thompson lands 1.5 more sig strikes per minute
  • Stephen Thompson out-volumes opponents at 4.0 sig/min vs Charles Radtke's 2.5
Method Breakdown
Thompson Radtke
KO/TKO 8.9
24.6
Submission 2.9
19.2
Decision 13.1
31.4
Finish Distribution · By Round
30
R1
17
R2
9
R3
44
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Thompson Radtke
Str/min 4.0
2.5
Sig Acc 46%
54%
Str Def 55%
55%
TD/min 0.02
0.13
Finish 41%
71%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
36
34
ThompsonRadtke
Combined 70 16–141
Takedowns
0.0
1.4
ThompsonRadtke
Combined 1.7 0.0–4.5
Fight length
Expected 2.0 of 3 rounds 44% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Radtke

    Charles Radtke eats 0.5 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Thompson

    Stephen Thompson lands 1.5 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Win streak favours Radtke

    Charles Radtke rides a 2-fight longer win streak

  • 04 Finish rate favours Radtke

    Charles Radtke finishes 71% of fights, Stephen Thompson 41%

  • 05 Takedown defence favours Radtke

    Charles Radtke stops 100% of takedown attempts, Stephen Thompson 63%

  • 06 Control time favours Radtke

    Charles Radtke spends 51% of fight time in control, Stephen Thompson 6%

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Drew Dober
Drew Dober
United States 29-15-0 Freestyle Southpaw 2-fight win streak
34% | 66%
Lightweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 15 Nov · 10:00 AM AEST
Chris Duncan
Chris Duncan
Scotland 15-3-0 Striker Orthodox 1 loss
Model Favourite
Chris Duncan
66.0 %
Confidence · Medium · sub-models broadly agree
Why this pick
  • Chris Duncan wins by submission in 38% of fights, Drew Dober in 4%
  • Chris Duncan hits 0.15 more takedowns per minute
  • Chris Duncan eats 0.1 fewer strikes per minute
  • the case against Drew Dober rides a 2-fight longer win streak
  • Drew Dober has never been finished in 27 fights
Method Breakdown
Dober Duncan
KO/TKO 13.0
19.7
Submission 4.2
14.7
Decision 16.8
31.6
Finish Distribution · By Round
28
R1
17
R2
7
R3
48
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Dober Duncan
Str/min 4.5
4.6
Sig Acc 41%
46%
Str Def 53%
52%
TD/min 0.04
0.19
Finish 70%
62%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
38
44
DoberDuncan
Combined 72 18–151
Takedowns
0.1
1.2
DoberDuncan
Combined 1.8 0.0–4.7
Fight length
Expected 2.0 of 3 rounds 48% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Dober

    Drew Dober rides a 2-fight longer win streak

  • 02 KO rate favours Dober

    Drew Dober wins by knockout in 52% of fights, Chris Duncan in 0%

  • 03 Submission rate favours Duncan

    Chris Duncan wins by submission in 38% of fights, Drew Dober in 4%

  • 04 Takedown volume favours Duncan

    Chris Duncan hits 0.15 more takedowns per minute

  • 05 Strikes absorbed favours Duncan

    Chris Duncan eats 0.1 fewer strikes per minute

  • 06 Finish rate favours Dober

    Drew Dober finishes 70% of fights, Chris Duncan 62%

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Jim Miller
Jim Miller
United States 39-19-0 Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Southpaw 1 win
43% | 57%
Lightweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 15 Nov · 10:00 AM AEST
Terrance McKinney
Terrance McKinney
United States 18-8-0 MMA Switch Stance 1 loss
Model Favourite
Terrance McKinney
57.4 %
Confidence · High · sub-models agree closely
Why this pick
  • Terrance McKinney lands 4.9 more sig strikes per minute
  • Terrance McKinney finishes 100% of fights, Jim Miller 53%
  • Terrance McKinney wins by knockout in 64% of fights, Jim Miller in 17%
  • the case against Jim Miller eats 1.2 fewer strikes per minute
  • Terrance McKinney out-volumes opponents at 7.8 sig/min vs Jim Miller's 2.9
Method Breakdown
Miller McKinney
KO/TKO 5.1
29.1
Submission 23.8
8.4
Decision 13.8
19.9
Finish Distribution · By Round
37
R1
21
R2
9
R3
34
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Miller McKinney
Str/min 2.9
7.8
Sig Acc 42%
56%
Str Def 57%
42%
TD/min 0.10
0.20
Finish 53%
100%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
23
30
MillerMcKinney
Combined 39 10–135
Takedowns
0.2
1.1
MillerMcKinney
Combined 1.9 0.0–5.0
Fight length
Expected 1.7 of 3 rounds 34% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours McKinney

    Terrance McKinney lands 4.9 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Miller

    Jim Miller eats 1.2 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 Finish rate favours McKinney

    Terrance McKinney finishes 100% of fights, Jim Miller 53%

  • 04 KO rate favours McKinney

    Terrance McKinney wins by knockout in 64% of fights, Jim Miller in 17%

  • 05 Win streak favours Miller

    Jim Miller rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 06 Takedown defence favours McKinney

    Terrance McKinney stops 73% of takedown attempts, Jim Miller 48%

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Baisangur Susurkaev
Baisangur Susurkaev
Russia 12-0-0 Striker Orthodox 3-fight win streak
72% | 28%
Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 15 Nov · 10:00 AM AEST
Donte Johnson
Donte Johnson
United States 8-0-0 MMA Southpaw 3-fight win streak
Model Favourite
Baisangur Susurkaev
72.5 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Baisangur Susurkaev lands 3.1 more sig strikes per minute
  • Baisangur Susurkaev finishes 100% of fights, Donte Johnson 67%
  • Baisangur Susurkaev wins by submission in 67% of fights, Donte Johnson in 33%
  • the case against Donte Johnson eats 2.8 fewer strikes per minute
  • Baisangur Susurkaev out-volumes opponents at 6.0 sig/min vs Donte Johnson's 2.9
Method Breakdown
Susurkaev Johnson
KO/TKO 21.3
13.5
Submission 10.8
1.1
Decision 40.3
12.9
Finish Distribution · By Round
25
R1
14
R2
7
R3
53
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Susurkaev Johnson
Str/min 6.0
2.9
Sig Acc 54%
43%
Str Def 59%
63%
TD/min 0.15
0.13
Finish 100%
67%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
38
31
SusurkaevJohnson
Combined 75 16–138
Takedowns
0.5
0.3
SusurkaevJohnson
Combined 1.6 0.0–4.7
Fight length
Expected 2.1 of 3 rounds 53% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Johnson

    Donte Johnson eats 2.8 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Susurkaev

    Baisangur Susurkaev lands 3.1 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Finish rate favours Susurkaev

    Baisangur Susurkaev finishes 100% of fights, Donte Johnson 67%

  • 04 Submission rate favours Susurkaev

    Baisangur Susurkaev wins by submission in 67% of fights, Donte Johnson in 33%

  • 05 Takedown defence favours Susurkaev

    Baisangur Susurkaev stops 100% of takedown attempts, Donte Johnson 77%

  • 06 Striking accuracy favours Susurkaev

    Baisangur Susurkaev lands 54% of significant strikes thrown, Donte Johnson 43%

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Macy Chiasson
Macy Chiasson
United States 11-6-0 MMA Orthodox 3-fight loss streak
34% | 66%
Women's Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 15 Nov · 8:00 AM AEST
Bia Mesquita
Bia Mesquita
Brazil 6-0-0 Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 3-fight win streak
Model Favourite
Bia Mesquita
65.8 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Bia Mesquita eats 1.5 fewer strikes per minute
  • Bia Mesquita rides a 3-fight longer win streak
  • Bia Mesquita wins by submission in 100% of fights, Macy Chiasson in 14%
  • the case against Macy Chiasson stops 62% of takedown attempts, Bia Mesquita 0%
  • Bia Mesquita rides a 3-fight win streak (Macy Chiasson: 0)
Method Breakdown
Chiasson Mesquita
KO/TKO 10.0
3.4
Submission 4.3
33.8
Decision 19.8
28.6
Finish Distribution · By Round
27
R1
15
R2
9
R3
48
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Chiasson Mesquita
Str/min 3.2
4.5
Sig Acc 46%
57%
Str Def 45%
71%
TD/min 0.12
0.24
Finish 50%
100%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
28
32
ChiassonMesquita
Combined 70 15–112
Takedowns
0.4
1.6
ChiassonMesquita
Combined 2.2 0.0–5.1
Fight length
Expected 2.0 of 3 rounds 48% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Mesquita

    Bia Mesquita eats 1.5 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Mesquita

    Bia Mesquita rides a 3-fight longer win streak

  • 03 Submission rate favours Mesquita

    Bia Mesquita wins by submission in 100% of fights, Macy Chiasson in 14%

  • 04 Finish rate favours Mesquita

    Bia Mesquita finishes 100% of fights, Macy Chiasson 50%

  • 05 Striking volume favours Mesquita

    Bia Mesquita lands 1.3 more sig strikes per minute

  • 06 Takedown defence favours Chiasson

    Macy Chiasson stops 62% of takedown attempts, Bia Mesquita 0%

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Adrian Yanez
Adrian Yanez
United States 17-6-1 Boxing Orthodox 1 win
34% | 66%
Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 15 Nov · 8:00 AM AEST
Juan Diaz
Juan Diaz
Peru 15-1-1 MMA 1 win
Model Favourite
Juan Diaz
66.2 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Juan Diaz is favoured at 66% — fight-history features sparse
  • Juan Diaz has 1 UFC fight — too little to compare fight stats, so this pick leans on age, size and pre-UFC record
Method Breakdown
Yanez Diaz
KO/TKO 14.1
29.0
Submission 1.9
17.0
Decision 17.9
20.2
Finish Distribution · By Round
32
R1
19
R2
11
R3
38
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Yanez Diaz
Str/min 5.9
1.4
Sig Acc 42%
52%
Str Def 57%
55%
TD/min 0.00
0.55
Finish 73%
100%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
34
29
YanezDiaz
Combined 59 12–127
Takedowns
0.0
1.4
YanezDiaz
Combined 1.5 0.0–5.0
Fight length
Expected 1.9 of 3 rounds 38% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Model lean favours Diaz

    Juan Diaz is favoured at 66% — fight-history features sparse

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Nazim Sadykhov
Nazim Sadykhov
Russia 11-2-1 Freestyle Southpaw 2-fight loss streak
62% | 38%
Lightweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 15 Nov · 8:00 AM AEST
JN
Jefferson Nascimento
Brazil 13-1-0 Freestyle Orthodox 1 loss
Model Favourite
Nazim Sadykhov
62.4 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Nazim Sadykhov is favoured at 62% — fight-history features sparse
  • Jefferson Nascimento has 1 UFC fight — too little to compare fight stats, so this pick leans on age, size and pre-UFC record
Method Breakdown
Sadykhov Nascimento
KO/TKO 28.1
16.2
Submission 9.8
6.2
Decision 24.6
15.1
Finish Distribution · By Round
33
R1
19
R2
8
R3
40
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Sadykhov Nascimento
Str/min 4.7
2.7
Sig Acc 47%
47%
Str Def 47%
57%
TD/min 0.09
0.03
Finish 86%
88%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
29
30
SadykhovNascimento
Combined 67 13–128
Takedowns
0.6
0.0
SadykhovNascimento
Combined 1.0 0.0–4.4
Fight length
Expected 1.8 of 3 rounds 40% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Model lean favours Sadykhov

    Nazim Sadykhov is favoured at 62% — fight-history features sparse

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Jiri Prochazka
Prochazka
Main Event
78%
Model Leans Stirling
2026-11-22
Navajo Stirling
Stirling
UFC Fight Night: Procházka vs. Stirling
2026
22
NOV
UPCOMING CARD

UFC Fight Night: Procházka vs. Stirling

ABHA Arena, Doha, Qatar
9
Bouts
Jiri Prochazka
Jiri Prochazka
32-6-1 Karate Orthodox 1 loss
22% | 78%
Light Heavyweight 5 rds
⏱ Sun 22 Nov · 4:00 AM AEST
Navajo Stirling
Navajo Stirling
New Zealand 9-0-0 Kickboxer Orthodox 6-fight win streak
Model Favourite
Navajo Stirling
78.5 %
Confidence · Medium · limited UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Navajo Stirling eats 3.2 fewer strikes per minute
  • Navajo Stirling rides a 6-fight longer win streak
  • Navajo Stirling lands 0.8 more sig strikes per minute
  • the case against Jiri Prochazka finishes 100% of fights, Navajo Stirling 50%
  • Navajo Stirling rides a 6-fight win streak (Jiri Prochazka: 0)
Method Breakdown
Prochazka Stirling
KO/TKO 11.6
55.7
Submission 2.5
1.4
Decision 7.5
21.4
Finish Distribution · By Round
30
R1
18
R2
11
R3
8
R4
5
R5
29
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Prochazka Stirling
Str/min 5.6
6.4
Sig Acc 56%
54%
Str Def 45%
59%
TD/min 0.03
0.06
Finish 100%
50%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
36
56
ProchazkaStirling
Combined 112 17–246
Takedowns
0.0
0.1
ProchazkaStirling
Combined 0.8 0.0–3.9
Fight length
Expected 2.6 of 5 rounds 29% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Stirling

    Navajo Stirling eats 3.2 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Stirling

    Navajo Stirling rides a 6-fight longer win streak

  • 03 Finish rate favours Prochazka

    Jiri Prochazka finishes 100% of fights, Navajo Stirling 50%

  • 04 Striking volume favours Stirling

    Navajo Stirling lands 0.8 more sig strikes per minute

  • 05 KO rate favours Prochazka

    Jiri Prochazka wins by knockout in 89% of fights, Navajo Stirling in 50%

  • 06 Submission rate favours Prochazka

    Jiri Prochazka wins by submission in 11% of fights, Navajo Stirling in 0%

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Aljamain Sterling
Aljamain Sterling
United States 25-5-0 Kickboxer Orthodox 2-fight win streak
40% | 60%
Featherweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 22 Nov · 4:00 AM AEST
Kevin Vallejos
Kevin Vallejos
Argentina 17-1-0 Striker Switch Stance 4-fight win streak
Model Favourite
Kevin Vallejos
60.4 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Kevin Vallejos lands 1.5 more sig strikes per minute
  • Kevin Vallejos rides a 2-fight longer win streak
  • Kevin Vallejos wins by knockout in 75% of fights, Aljamain Sterling in 18%
  • the case against Aljamain Sterling eats 1.5 fewer strikes per minute
  • Kevin Vallejos rides a 4-fight win streak (Aljamain Sterling: 2)
Method Breakdown
Sterling Vallejos
KO/TKO 4.5
30.5
Submission 15.3
1.7
Decision 19.8
28.2
Finish Distribution · By Round
28
R1
16
R2
8
R3
48
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Sterling Vallejos
Str/min 4.2
5.7
Sig Acc 54%
47%
Str Def 61%
59%
TD/min 0.18
0.07
Finish 36%
75%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
50
42
SterlingVallejos
Combined 91 21–142
Takedowns
1.6
0.0
SterlingVallejos
Combined 1.6 0.0–4.9
Fight length
Expected 2.0 of 3 rounds 48% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Sterling

    Aljamain Sterling eats 1.5 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Vallejos

    Kevin Vallejos lands 1.5 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Win streak favours Vallejos

    Kevin Vallejos rides a 2-fight longer win streak

  • 04 KO rate favours Vallejos

    Kevin Vallejos wins by knockout in 75% of fights, Aljamain Sterling in 18%

  • 05 Finish rate favours Vallejos

    Kevin Vallejos finishes 75% of fights, Aljamain Sterling 36%

  • 06 Takedown defence favours Vallejos

    Kevin Vallejos stops 90% of takedown attempts, Aljamain Sterling 52%

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Brian Ortega
Brian Ortega
United States 16-5-0 Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Switch Stance 2-fight loss streak
64% | 36%
Lightweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 22 Nov · 4:00 AM AEST
Dan Hooker
Dan Hooker
New Zealand 24-14-0 MMA Switch Stance 3-fight loss streak
Model Favourite
Brian Ortega
64.0 %
Confidence · Medium · sub-models broadly agree
Why this pick
  • Brian Ortega wins by submission in 29% of fights, Dan Hooker in 8%
  • the case against Dan Hooker eats 1.4 fewer strikes per minute
  • Dan Hooker has never been finished in 25 fights
Method Breakdown
Ortega Hooker
KO/TKO 18.7
19.0
Submission 21.3
5.0
Decision 24.1
12.0
Finish Distribution · By Round
35
R1
20
R2
9
R3
36
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Ortega Hooker
Str/min 3.8
4.8
Sig Acc 37%
49%
Str Def 49%
49%
TD/min 0.06
0.04
Finish 64%
64%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
39
50
OrtegaHooker
Combined 95 17–179
Takedowns
0.8
0.1
OrtegaHooker
Combined 0.9 0.0–3.9
Fight length
Expected 1.8 of 3 rounds 36% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Hooker

    Dan Hooker eats 1.4 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Hooker

    Dan Hooker lands 1.0 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Submission rate favours Ortega

    Brian Ortega wins by submission in 29% of fights, Dan Hooker in 8%

  • 04 Takedown defence favours Hooker

    Dan Hooker stops 77% of takedown attempts, Brian Ortega 55%

  • 05 KO rate favours Hooker

    Dan Hooker wins by knockout in 48% of fights, Brian Ortega in 36%

  • 06 Striking accuracy favours Hooker

    Dan Hooker lands 49% of significant strikes thrown, Brian Ortega 37%

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Jared Cannonier
Jared Cannonier
United States 18-9-0 Striker Switch Stance 2-fight loss streak
15% | 85%
Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 22 Nov · 4:00 AM AEST
Ikram Aliskerov
Ikram Aliskerov
Russia 17-2-0 Sambo Southpaw 3-fight win streak
Model Favourite
Ikram Aliskerov
85.2 %
Confidence · Medium · limited UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Ikram Aliskerov rides a 3-fight longer win streak
  • Ikram Aliskerov eats 0.6 fewer strikes per minute
  • Ikram Aliskerov lands 1.4 more sig strikes per minute
  • Ikram Aliskerov rides a 3-fight win streak (Jared Cannonier: 0)
Method Breakdown
Cannonier Aliskerov
KO/TKO 6.8
34.8
Submission 1.9
12.7
Decision 6.0
37.6
Finish Distribution · By Round
29
R1
18
R2
9
R3
44
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Cannonier Aliskerov
Str/min 4.2
5.7
Sig Acc 49%
61%
Str Def 56%
46%
TD/min 0.05
0.24
Finish 48%
67%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
36
52
CannonierAliskerov
Combined 80 19–171
Takedowns
0.1
0.9
CannonierAliskerov
Combined 1.6 0.0–4.9
Fight length
Expected 2.0 of 3 rounds 44% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Aliskerov

    Ikram Aliskerov rides a 3-fight longer win streak

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Aliskerov

    Ikram Aliskerov eats 0.6 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 Striking volume favours Aliskerov

    Ikram Aliskerov lands 1.4 more sig strikes per minute

  • 04 Takedown defence favours Aliskerov

    Ikram Aliskerov stops 100% of takedown attempts, Jared Cannonier 65%

  • 05 Takedown volume favours Aliskerov

    Ikram Aliskerov hits 0.19 more takedowns per minute

  • 06 Finish rate favours Aliskerov

    Ikram Aliskerov finishes 67% of fights, Jared Cannonier 48%

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Shamil Gaziev
Shamil Gaziev
Russia 14-3-0 MMA Orthodox 1 win
27% | 73%
Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 22 Nov · 4:00 AM AEST
Tallison Teixeira
Tallison Teixeira
Brazil 9-1-0 Striker Orthodox 1 loss
Model Favourite
Tallison Teixeira
73.0 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Tallison Teixeira eats 1.6 fewer strikes per minute
  • Tallison Teixeira lands 0.7 more sig strikes per minute
  • Tallison Teixeira lands 67% of significant strikes thrown, Shamil Gaziev 45%
  • the case against Shamil Gaziev rides a 1-fight longer win streak
  • Shamil Gaziev KOs 86% of opponents — Tallison Teixeira has been KO'd in 50% of losses
Method Breakdown
Gaziev Teixeira
KO/TKO 14.1
48.4
Submission 3.5
7.2
Decision 9.4
17.4
Finish Distribution · By Round
43
R1
22
R2
8
R3
27
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Gaziev Teixeira
Str/min 3.0
3.7
Sig Acc 45%
67%
Str Def 45%
32%
TD/min 0.07
0.18
Finish 86%
75%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
17
32
GazievTeixeira
Combined 48 13–115
Takedowns
0.1
0.6
GazievTeixeira
Combined 1.0 0.0–4.6
Fight length
Expected 1.5 of 3 rounds 27% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Teixeira

    Tallison Teixeira eats 1.6 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Teixeira

    Tallison Teixeira lands 0.7 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Win streak favours Gaziev

    Shamil Gaziev rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 04 Striking accuracy favours Teixeira

    Tallison Teixeira lands 67% of significant strikes thrown, Shamil Gaziev 45%

  • 05 Finish rate favours Gaziev

    Shamil Gaziev finishes 86% of fights, Tallison Teixeira 75%

  • 06 Takedown volume favours Teixeira

    Tallison Teixeira hits 0.11 more takedowns per minute

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Jake Matthews
Jake Matthews
Australia 22-8-0 Freestyle Orthodox 1 win
59% | 41%
Welterweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 22 Nov · 1:00 AM AEST
TA
Tahir Abdullayev
Azerbaijan 20-3-0 Orthodox 1 win
Model Favourite
Jake Matthews
58.9 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Jake Matthews is favoured at 59% — fight-history features sparse
  • Tahir Abdullayev has 1 UFC fight — too little to compare fight stats, so this pick leans on age, size and pre-UFC record
Method Breakdown
Matthews Abdullayev
KO/TKO 10.7
11.5
Submission 16.5
9.8
Decision 31.6
19.8
Finish Distribution · By Round
26
R1
15
R2
8
R3
51
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Matthews Abdullayev
Str/min 3.4
2.7
Sig Acc 44%
43%
Str Def 61%
51%
TD/min 0.09
0.13
Finish 54%
88%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
36
26
MatthewsAbdullayev
Combined 61 17–116
Takedowns
0.3
0.1
MatthewsAbdullayev
Combined 1.7 0.0–4.5
Fight length
Expected 2.1 of 3 rounds 51% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Model lean favours Matthews

    Jake Matthews is favoured at 59% — fight-history features sparse

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Aleksandre Topuria
Aleksandre Topuria
Germany 7-1-0 Boxing Orthodox 2-fight win streak
35% | 65%
Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 22 Nov · 1:00 AM AEST
Santiago Luna
Santiago Luna
United States 8-0-0 MMA Orthodox 1 loss
Model Favourite
Santiago Luna
64.5 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Santiago Luna finishes 64% of fights, Aleksandre Topuria 0%
  • Santiago Luna lands 1.7 more sig strikes per minute
  • Santiago Luna wins by knockout in 32% of fights, Aleksandre Topuria in 0%
  • the case against Aleksandre Topuria rides a 2-fight longer win streak
  • Santiago Luna out-volumes opponents at 4.6 sig/min vs Aleksandre Topuria's 2.9
Method Breakdown
Topuria Luna
KO/TKO 9.7
19.9
Submission 7.3
10.3
Decision 18.4
34.3
Finish Distribution · By Round
25
R1
14
R2
8
R3
53
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Topuria Luna
Str/min 2.9
4.6
Sig Acc 55%
52%
Str Def 69%
68%
TD/min 0.10
0.15
Finish 0%
64%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
32
40
TopuriaLuna
Combined 69 20–128
Takedowns
1.1
0.3
TopuriaLuna
Combined 1.9 0.0–4.5
Fight length
Expected 2.1 of 3 rounds 53% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Finish rate favours Luna

    Santiago Luna finishes 64% of fights, Aleksandre Topuria 0%

  • 02 Striking volume favours Luna

    Santiago Luna lands 1.7 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Win streak favours Topuria

    Aleksandre Topuria rides a 2-fight longer win streak

  • 04 Takedown defence favours Topuria

    Aleksandre Topuria stops 100% of takedown attempts, Santiago Luna 57%

  • 05 KO rate favours Luna

    Santiago Luna wins by knockout in 32% of fights, Aleksandre Topuria in 0%

  • 06 Strikes absorbed favours Topuria

    Aleksandre Topuria eats 0.2 fewer strikes per minute

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Kyoji Horiguchi
Kyoji Horiguchi
Japan 36-5-0 Orthodox 1 loss
51% | 49%
Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 22 Nov · 1:00 AM AEST
Asu Almabayev
Asu Almabayev
Kazakhstan 23-3-0 Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 3-fight win streak
Model Favourite
Kyoji Horiguchi
50.7 %
Confidence · Medium · limited UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Kyoji Horiguchi lands 1.4 more sig strikes per minute
  • Kyoji Horiguchi wins by knockout in 27% of fights, Asu Almabayev in 12%
  • the case against Asu Almabayev rides a 3-fight longer win streak
  • Asu Almabayev rides a 3-fight win streak (Kyoji Horiguchi: 0)
Method Breakdown
Horiguchi Almabayev
KO/TKO 15.8
2.1
Submission 3.4
10.0
Decision 31.6
37.2
Finish Distribution · By Round
17
R1
10
R2
5
R3
69
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Horiguchi Almabayev
Str/min 3.6
2.3
Sig Acc 48%
51%
Str Def 64%
54%
TD/min 0.11
0.32
Finish 45%
50%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
33
28
HoriguchiAlmabayev
Combined 68 20–121
Takedowns
0.3
1.7
HoriguchiAlmabayev
Combined 3.0 0.0–5.9
Fight length
Expected 2.4 of 3 rounds 69% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Almabayev

    Asu Almabayev rides a 3-fight longer win streak

  • 02 Striking volume favours Horiguchi

    Kyoji Horiguchi lands 1.4 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Takedown volume favours Almabayev

    Asu Almabayev hits 0.20 more takedowns per minute

  • 04 Submission rate favours Almabayev

    Asu Almabayev wins by submission in 38% of fights, Kyoji Horiguchi in 9%

  • 05 Strikes absorbed favours Almabayev

    Asu Almabayev eats 0.1 fewer strikes per minute

  • 06 KO rate favours Horiguchi

    Kyoji Horiguchi wins by knockout in 27% of fights, Asu Almabayev in 12%

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Amir Albazi
Amir Albazi
17-3-0 Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
60% | 40%
Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 22 Nov · 1:00 AM AEST
Alessandro Costa
Alessandro Costa
Brazil 15-5-0 Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 3-fight win streak
Model Favourite
Amir Albazi
59.5 %
Confidence · Medium · sub-models broadly agree
Why this pick
  • the case against Alessandro Costa rides a 3-fight longer win streak
  • Alessandro Costa rides a 3-fight win streak (Amir Albazi: 0)
Method Breakdown
Albazi Costa
KO/TKO 13.3
18.5
Submission 19.6
4.3
Decision 26.6
17.7
Finish Distribution · By Round
30
R1
18
R2
8
R3
44
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Albazi Costa
Str/min 2.5
3.9
Sig Acc 34%
49%
Str Def 59%
54%
TD/min 0.08
0.06
Finish 43%
88%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
28
35
AlbaziCosta
Combined 72 17–147
Takedowns
0.4
0.1
AlbaziCosta
Combined 1.2 0.0–3.9
Fight length
Expected 1.9 of 3 rounds 44% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Costa

    Alessandro Costa rides a 3-fight longer win streak

  • 02 Striking volume favours Costa

    Alessandro Costa lands 1.5 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Finish rate favours Costa

    Alessandro Costa finishes 88% of fights, Amir Albazi 43%

  • 04 KO rate favours Costa

    Alessandro Costa wins by knockout in 75% of fights, Amir Albazi in 14%

  • 05 Takedown defence favours Costa

    Alessandro Costa stops 85% of takedown attempts, Amir Albazi 62%

  • 06 Striking accuracy favours Costa

    Alessandro Costa lands 49% of significant strikes thrown, Amir Albazi 34%

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Charles Oliveira
Oliveira
Main Event
54%
Model Leans Oliveira
2026-12-13
Diego Lopes
Lopes
UFC 335: Oliveira vs. Lopes
2026
13
DEC
UPCOMING CARD

UFC 335: Oliveira vs. Lopes

T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, USA
6
Bouts
Charles Oliveira
Charles Oliveira
Brazil 37-11-0 Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 2-fight win streak
54% | 46%
Lightweight 5 rds
⏱ Sun 13 Dec · 12:00 PM AEST
Diego Lopes
Diego Lopes
Brazil 27-8-0 Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 1 win
Model Favourite
Charles Oliveira
53.5 %
Confidence · Medium · sub-models broadly agree
Why this pick
  • Charles Oliveira eats 1.6 fewer strikes per minute
  • Charles Oliveira finishes 81% of fights, Diego Lopes 50%
  • Charles Oliveira wins by submission in 46% of fights, Diego Lopes in 10%
  • the case against Diego Lopes lands 0.7 more sig strikes per minute
  • Charles Oliveira has never been finished in 37 fights
Method Breakdown
Oliveira Lopes
KO/TKO 11.5
27.6
Submission 27.4
7.7
Decision 14.6
11.2
Finish Distribution · By Round
31
R1
19
R2
11
R3
8
R4
6
R5
26
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Oliveira Lopes
Str/min 3.2
3.9
Sig Acc 56%
47%
Str Def 49%
47%
TD/min 0.15
0.06
Finish 81%
50%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
31
44
OliveiraLopes
Combined 82 17–155
Takedowns
1.5
0.1
OliveiraLopes
Combined 1.7 0.0–4.5
Fight length
Expected 2.5 of 5 rounds 26% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Oliveira

    Charles Oliveira eats 1.6 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Finish rate favours Oliveira

    Charles Oliveira finishes 81% of fights, Diego Lopes 50%

  • 03 Striking volume favours Lopes

    Diego Lopes lands 0.7 more sig strikes per minute

  • 04 Submission rate favours Oliveira

    Charles Oliveira wins by submission in 46% of fights, Diego Lopes in 10%

  • 05 Win streak favours Oliveira

    Charles Oliveira rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 06 Takedown defence favours Lopes

    Diego Lopes stops 74% of takedown attempts, Charles Oliveira 55%

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Sergei Pavlovich
Sergei Pavlovich
Russia 20-3-0 MMA Southpaw 3-fight win streak
62% | 38%
Heavyweight 5 rds
⏱ Sun 13 Dec · 12:00 PM AEST
Alex Pereira
Alex Pereira
Brazil 13-3-0 Kickboxer Orthodox 1 loss
Model Favourite
Sergei Pavlovich
62.1 %
Confidence · High · sub-models agree closely
Why this pick
  • Sergei Pavlovich rides a 3-fight longer win streak
  • Sergei Pavlovich eats 0.1 fewer strikes per minute
  • Alex Pereira is on a losing run 1 fight(s) longer than Sergei Pavlovich
  • the case against Alex Pereira lands 0.5 more sig strikes per minute
  • Sergei Pavlovich rides a 3-fight win streak (Alex Pereira: 0)
Method Breakdown
Pavlovich Pereira
KO/TKO 45.3
25.4
Submission 0.1
1.4
Decision 16.7
11.0
Finish Distribution · By Round
30
R1
18
R2
11
R3
8
R4
5
R5
28
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Pavlovich Pereira
Str/min 4.5
5.0
Sig Acc 45%
61%
Str Def 56%
53%
TD/min 0.03
0.01
Finish 75%
77%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
40
37
PavlovichPereira
Combined 93 19–193
Takedowns
0.0
0.0
PavlovichPereira
Combined 0.4 0.0–3.8
Fight length
Expected 2.6 of 5 rounds 28% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Pavlovich

    Sergei Pavlovich rides a 3-fight longer win streak

  • 02 Striking volume favours Pereira

    Alex Pereira lands 0.5 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Strikes absorbed favours Pavlovich

    Sergei Pavlovich eats 0.1 fewer strikes per minute

  • 04 Striking accuracy favours Pereira

    Alex Pereira lands 61% of significant strikes thrown, Sergei Pavlovich 45%

  • 05 Loss streak favours Pavlovich

    Alex Pereira is on a losing run 1 fight(s) longer than Sergei Pavlovich

  • 06 Control time favours Pavlovich

    Sergei Pavlovich spends 12% of fight time in control, Alex Pereira 2%

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Joe Pyfer
Joe Pyfer
United States 16-3-0 Boxing Orthodox 4-fight win streak
49% | 51%
Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 13 Dec · 10:00 AM AEST
Bo Nickal
Bo Nickal
United States 8-1-0 Wrestling Southpaw 2-fight win streak
Model Favourite
Bo Nickal
51.2 %
Confidence · Medium · limited UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Bo Nickal eats 1.3 fewer strikes per minute
  • Bo Nickal stops 100% of takedown attempts, Joe Pyfer 67%
  • Bo Nickal lands 62% of significant strikes thrown, Joe Pyfer 43%
  • the case against Joe Pyfer rides a 2-fight longer win streak
  • Joe Pyfer rides a 4-fight win streak (Bo Nickal: 2)
Method Breakdown
Pyfer Nickal
KO/TKO 28.8
16.8
Submission 5.2
6.7
Decision 14.8
27.7
Finish Distribution · By Round
31
R1
18
R2
8
R3
43
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Pyfer Nickal
Str/min 3.5
3.4
Sig Acc 43%
62%
Str Def 53%
60%
TD/min 0.08
0.16
Finish 75%
86%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
33
28
PyferNickal
Combined 66 17–115
Takedowns
0.0
1.0
PyferNickal
Combined 1.6 0.0–4.6
Fight length
Expected 1.9 of 3 rounds 43% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Nickal

    Bo Nickal eats 1.3 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Pyfer

    Joe Pyfer rides a 2-fight longer win streak

  • 03 Takedown defence favours Nickal

    Bo Nickal stops 100% of takedown attempts, Joe Pyfer 67%

  • 04 Striking accuracy favours Nickal

    Bo Nickal lands 62% of significant strikes thrown, Joe Pyfer 43%

  • 05 Finish rate favours Nickal

    Bo Nickal finishes 86% of fights, Joe Pyfer 75%

  • 06 Takedown volume favours Nickal

    Bo Nickal hits 0.07 more takedowns per minute

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Brandon Moreno
Brandon Moreno
Mexico 23-10-2 Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 1 win
69% | 31%
Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 13 Dec · 8:00 AM AEST
Charles Johnson
Charles Johnson
United States 19-8-0 Switch Stance 1 win
Model Favourite
Brandon Moreno
69.4 %
Confidence · High · sub-models agree closely
Why this pick
  • Brandon Moreno eats 0.2 fewer strikes per minute
  • Brandon Moreno hits 0.06 more takedowns per minute
  • Brandon Moreno wins by submission in 14% of fights, Charles Johnson in 6%
  • the case against Charles Johnson lands 0.7 more sig strikes per minute
  • Brandon Moreno has never been finished in 21 fights
Method Breakdown
Moreno Johnson
KO/TKO 7.8
9.7
Submission 13.5
3.7
Decision 48.1
17.2
Finish Distribution · By Round
19
R1
11
R2
5
R3
65
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Moreno Johnson
Str/min 3.9
4.6
Sig Acc 44%
50%
Str Def 60%
56%
TD/min 0.09
0.03
Finish 33%
38%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
63
59
MorenoJohnson
Combined 132 22–182
Takedowns
0.8
0.0
MorenoJohnson
Combined 1.5 0.0–3.8
Fight length
Expected 2.3 of 3 rounds 65% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Johnson

    Charles Johnson lands 0.7 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Moreno

    Brandon Moreno eats 0.2 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 Takedown volume favours Moreno

    Brandon Moreno hits 0.06 more takedowns per minute

  • 04 Submission rate favours Moreno

    Brandon Moreno wins by submission in 14% of fights, Charles Johnson in 6%

  • 05 Finish rate favours Johnson

    Charles Johnson finishes 38% of fights, Brandon Moreno 33%

  • 06 Striking accuracy favours Johnson

    Charles Johnson lands 50% of significant strikes thrown, Brandon Moreno 44%

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
Sportsbet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Maycee Barber
Maycee Barber
United States 15-3-0 Freestyle Switch Stance 1 loss
53% | 47%
Women's Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 13 Dec · 8:00 AM AEST
Carli Judice
Carli Judice
United States 6-2-0 Southpaw 4-fight win streak
Model Favourite
Maycee Barber
53.4 %
Confidence · Medium · sub-models broadly agree
Why this pick
  • Maycee Barber eats 2.0 fewer strikes per minute
  • the case against Carli Judice lands 4.5 more sig strikes per minute
  • Carli Judice out-volumes opponents at 8.7 sig/min vs Maycee Barber's 4.2
Method Breakdown
Barber Judice
KO/TKO 27.3
24.3
Submission 5.2
5.0
Decision 20.9
17.3
Finish Distribution · By Round
34
R1
19
R2
8
R3
38
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Barber Judice
Str/min 4.2
8.7
Sig Acc 51%
48%
Str Def 58%
60%
TD/min 0.10
0.04
Finish 38%
60%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
54
45
BarberJudice
Combined 98 20–161
Takedowns
0.7
0.0
BarberJudice
Combined 1.1 0.0–3.8
Fight length
Expected 1.8 of 3 rounds 38% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Barber

    Maycee Barber eats 2.0 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Judice

    Carli Judice lands 4.5 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Win streak favours Judice

    Carli Judice rides a 4-fight longer win streak

  • 04 Finish rate favours Judice

    Carli Judice finishes 60% of fights, Maycee Barber 38%

  • 05 Takedown defence favours Judice

    Carli Judice stops 83% of takedown attempts, Maycee Barber 48%

  • 06 KO rate favours Judice

    Carli Judice wins by knockout in 60% of fights, Maycee Barber in 38%

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
Sportsbet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Junior Tafa
Junior Tafa
Australia 7-5-0 Kickboxer Orthodox 1 loss
49% | 51%
Light Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 13 Dec · 8:00 AM AEST
QP
Quentin Pasley
United States 1-0-0
Model Favourite
Quentin Pasley
51.3 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Quentin Pasley has no UFC fights — too little to compare fight stats, so this pick leans on age, size and pre-UFC record
Method Breakdown
Tafa Pasley
KO/TKO 36.6
18.9
Submission 3.2
14.7
Decision 8.9
17.8
Finish Distribution · By Round
47
R1
21
R2
6
R3
27
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Tafa Pasley
Str/min 3.5
0.0
Sig Acc 52%
0%
Str Def 52%
0%
TD/min 0.00
0.00
Finish 89%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
28
18
TafaPasley
Combined 47 14–113
Takedowns
0.0
0.0
TafaPasley
Combined 0.9 0.0–4.5
Fight length
Expected 1.5 of 3 rounds 27% chance it goes the distance
Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
Sportsbet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Predictions soon
2026-10-11
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan
2026
11
OCT
predictions soon

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan

Meta APEX, Las Vegas, USA
1
Bouts
Melissa Gatto
Melissa Gatto
Brazil 9-3-2 Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 1 loss
50% | 50%
Women's Flyweight 3 rds
Result
Ernesta Kareckaite
Ernesta Kareckaite
1-2-1 Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
⟁ Win prediction & Sportsbet odds will populate closer to event night. Career stats below.

Fighter Statistics

GattoKareckaite
Career record 9-3-2 1-2-1
Last 3 win % 33% 33%
Finish rate 50% 0%
KO/TKO rate 50% 0%
Sub rate 0% 0%
Sig strikes / min ↑ 3.5 5.0

Predicted Outcomes

Win probability and method/round breakdowns appear here once the matrix processes this card.

Tip: stats above are computed from each fighter's full UFC history. Compare KO/TKO rate vs sub rate to gauge likely method even before predictions land.