Updated 2026-08-19 06:52 AEST
91
Bouts
19
Events
9
Value Bets
New here? How to read these predictions
Win probability
Our model's estimate that a fighter wins — e.g. 72% means we'd expect them to win roughly 7 of 10 times.
Confidence interval (CI)
The range the true probability likely falls in. Wider = less certain. A pick'em fight has a wide band; a clear favourite a narrow one.
Edge
How much higher our probability is than the bookmaker's implied odds. Positive edge = we think it's underpriced.
EV (expected value)
Average return if you placed the bet many times. +15% EV means about 15c profit per $1 staked, on average.
Risk tiers
Conservative leans to safe favourites, Balanced blends, Aggressive chases bigger-odds longshots. Pick what suits you.
Edge badges
Strong / Solid / Slight edge rank how much value the model sees — and how big a stake it suggests. They're not a promise the bet wins.

Tap any fight row to open the full model breakdown. New to the model itself? How it works · FAQ.

Anthony Hernandez
Hernandez
Main Event
65%
Model Leans Hernandez
2026-08-22
Gregory Rodrigues
Rodrigues
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues
2026
22
AUG
⚡ Next Event

UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues

Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, USA
13
Bouts
4
Value Bouts
Anthony Hernandez
Anthony Hernandez
United States 15-3-0 Striker Orthodox 1 loss
SB 1.56
65% | 35%
Middleweight 5 rds
⏱ Sun 12:45 PM AEST
Gregory Rodrigues
Gregory Rodrigues
Brazil 19-6-0 Grappler Orthodox 3-fight win streak
SB 2.44
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Anthony Hernandez
65.0 %
050100
CI · 35 – 95 · σ 0.064 · High
Why this pick
  • Anthony Hernandez eats 1.6 fewer strikes per minute
  • Anthony Hernandez taps opponents 42% more often
  • Anthony Hernandez hits 0.26 more takedowns per minute
  • the case against Gregory Rodrigues rides a 3-fight longer win streak
  • Gregory Rodrigues rides a 3-fight win streak (Anthony Hernandez: 0)
Method Breakdown
Hernandez Rodrigues
KO/TKO 23.4
26.6
Submission 25.6
2.5
Decision 16.0
5.9
Finish Distribution · By Round
23
R1
31
R2
9
R3
10
R4
5
R5
22
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Hernandez Rodrigues
Str/min 4.5
5.5
Sig Acc 61%
51%
Str Def 51%
51%
TD/min 0.39
0.13
Finish 83%
69%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
40
29
HernandezRodrigues
Combined 73 17–179
Takedowns
1.8
0.0
HernandezRodrigues
Combined 2.2 0.0–5.4
Fight length
Expected 2.5 of 5 rounds 22% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Hernandez

    Anthony Hernandez eats 1.6 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Rodrigues

    Gregory Rodrigues rides a 3-fight longer win streak

  • 03 Striking volume favours Rodrigues

    Gregory Rodrigues lands 1.0 more sig strikes per minute

  • 04 Submission rate favours Hernandez

    Anthony Hernandez taps opponents 42% more often

  • 05 KO rate favours Rodrigues

    Gregory Rodrigues finishes by KO 36% more often

  • 06 Takedown volume favours Hernandez

    Anthony Hernandez hits 0.26 more takedowns per minute

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed
No markets passed the value gate. 2 markets analysed.
Serghei Spivac
Serghei Spivac
18-6-0 Sambo Orthodox 1 win
SB 2.36
40% | 60%
Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 12:15 PM AEST
Vitor Petrino
Vitor Petrino
Brazil 14-2-0 Striker Orthodox 3-fight win streak
SB 1.59
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Vitor Petrino
60.3 %
050100
CI · 30 – 90 · σ 0.059 · High
Why this pick
  • Vitor Petrino eats 1.5 fewer strikes per minute
  • Vitor Petrino rides a 2-fight longer win streak
  • Vitor Petrino stuffs 17% more incoming takedowns
  • the case against Serghei Spivac lands 0.5 more sig strikes per minute
  • Vitor Petrino rides a 3-fight win streak (Serghei Spivac: 1)
Method Breakdown
Spivac Petrino
KO/TKO 10.7
33.7
Submission 15.4
4.7
Decision 13.6
21.9
Finish Distribution · By Round
33
R1
22
R2
9
R3
36
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Spivac Petrino
Str/min 3.6
3.1
Sig Acc 48%
49%
Str Def 52%
51%
TD/min 0.25
0.19
Finish 67%
67%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
31
38
SpivacPetrino
Combined 62 16–124
Takedowns
0.4
1.0
SpivacPetrino
Combined 1.2 0.0–4.8
Fight length
Expected 1.8 of 3 rounds 36% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Petrino

    Vitor Petrino eats 1.5 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Petrino

    Vitor Petrino rides a 2-fight longer win streak

  • 03 Striking volume favours Spivac

    Serghei Spivac lands 0.5 more sig strikes per minute

  • 04 KO rate favours Spivac

    Serghei Spivac finishes by KO 13% more often

  • 05 Takedown defence favours Petrino

    Vitor Petrino stuffs 17% more incoming takedowns

  • 06 Takedown volume favours Spivac

    Serghei Spivac hits 0.07 more takedowns per minute

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed
No markets passed the value gate. 2 markets analysed.
Roman Dolidze
Roman Dolidze
Georgia 15-5-0 MMA Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
SB 3.73
29% | 71%
Light Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 11:45 AM AEST
Reinier de Ridder
Reinier de Ridder
Netherlands 21-4-0 Jiu-Jitsu Southpaw 2-fight loss streak
SB 1.28
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Reinier de Ridder
71.1 %
050100
CI · 41 – 98 · σ 0.051 · High
Why this pick
  • Reinier de Ridder eats 1.4 fewer strikes per minute
  • Reinier de Ridder taps opponents 33% more often
  • Reinier de Ridder finishes 24% more of their wins
  • the case against Roman Dolidze lands 0.7 more sig strikes per minute
  • Roman Dolidze has never been finished in 14 fights
Method Breakdown
Dolidze Ridder
KO/TKO 9.4
12.1
Submission 4.0
29.4
Decision 15.6
29.6
Finish Distribution · By Round
27
R1
17
R2
11
R3
45
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Dolidze Ridder
Str/min 3.2
2.5
Sig Acc 42%
49%
Str Def 48%
47%
TD/min 0.08
0.17
Finish 43%
67%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
34
35
DolidzeRidder
Combined 67 19–118
Takedowns
0.1
1.1
DolidzeRidder
Combined 1.9 0.0–5.5
Fight length
Expected 2.0 of 3 rounds 46% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Ridder

    Reinier de Ridder eats 1.4 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Dolidze

    Roman Dolidze lands 0.7 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Submission rate favours Ridder

    Reinier de Ridder taps opponents 33% more often

  • 04 Finish rate favours Ridder

    Reinier de Ridder finishes 24% more of their wins

  • 05 Takedown volume favours Ridder

    Reinier de Ridder hits 0.09 more takedowns per minute

  • 06 KO durability favours Dolidze

    Roman Dolidze has been KO'd 17% less often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed
No markets passed the value gate. 2 markets analysed.
Mason Jones
Mason Jones
Wales 18-2-0 MMA Orthodox 3-fight win streak
SB 1.36
72% | 28%
Lightweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 11:15 AM AEST
MarQuel Mederos
MarQuel Mederos
United States 11-1-1 MMA Orthodox 1 loss
SB 3.17
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Mason Jones
71.7 %
050100
CI · 42 – 98 · σ 0.064 · High
Why this pick
  • Mason Jones rides a 3-fight longer win streak
  • Mason Jones lands 0.9 more sig strikes per minute
  • Mason Jones eats 0.3 fewer strikes per minute
  • Mason Jones rides a 3-fight win streak (MarQuel Mederos: 0)
Method Breakdown
Jones Mederos
KO/TKO 31.4
10.2
Submission 6.1
2.5
Decision 34.2
15.6
Finish Distribution · By Round
25
R1
15
R2
10
R3
50
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Jones Mederos
Str/min 6.0
5.1
Sig Acc 43%
55%
Str Def 51%
52%
TD/min 0.23
0.02
Finish 14%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
59
55
JonesMederos
Combined 115 23–184
Takedowns
1.7
0.0
JonesMederos
Combined 2.2 0.0–5.7
Fight length
Expected 2.1 of 3 rounds 50% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Jones

    Mason Jones rides a 3-fight longer win streak

  • 02 Striking volume favours Jones

    Mason Jones lands 0.9 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Strikes absorbed favours Jones

    Mason Jones eats 0.3 fewer strikes per minute

  • 04 Takedown volume favours Jones

    Mason Jones hits 0.22 more takedowns per minute

  • 05 Finish rate favours Jones

    Mason Jones finishes 14% more of their wins

  • 06 KO rate favours Jones

    Mason Jones finishes by KO 14% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed
No markets passed the value gate. 2 markets analysed.
Carli Judice
Carli Judice
United States 6-2-0 Southpaw 3-fight win streak
SB 1.16
75% | 25%
Women's Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 10:45 AM AEST
Jeisla Chaves
Jeisla Chaves
Brazil 1-0-0 Orthodox 1 win
SB 5.30
Breakdown ▼
1 value bet on SportsBet
Model Favourite
Carli Judice
74.6 %
050100
CI · 45 – 98 · σ 0.039 · High
Why this pick
  • Carli Judice lands 3.9 more sig strikes per minute
  • Carli Judice rides a 2-fight longer win streak
  • Carli Judice finishes 47% more of their wins
  • the case against Jeisla Chaves eats 0.5 fewer strikes per minute
  • Carli Judice out-volumes opponents at 8.1 sig/min vs Jeisla Chaves's 4.3
Method Breakdown
Judice Chaves
KO/TKO 22.7
5.7
Submission 2.9
2.0
Decision 49.1
17.7
Finish Distribution · By Round
16
R1
10
R2
7
R3
67
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Judice Chaves
Str/min 8.1
4.3
Sig Acc 45%
65%
Str Def 60%
45%
TD/min 0.04
0.20
Finish 47%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
53
48
JudiceChaves
Combined 97 22–160
Takedowns
0.0
1.3
JudiceChaves
Combined 1.9 0.0–4.8
Fight length
Expected 2.4 of 3 rounds 67% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Judice

    Carli Judice lands 3.9 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Judice

    Carli Judice rides a 2-fight longer win streak

  • 03 Strikes absorbed favours Chaves

    Jeisla Chaves eats 0.5 fewer strikes per minute

  • 04 Finish rate favours Judice

    Carli Judice finishes 47% more of their wins

  • 05 KO rate favours Judice

    Carli Judice finishes by KO 47% more often

  • 06 Takedown defence favours Judice

    Carli Judice stuffs 33% more incoming takedowns

Value Bets · SportsBet 1 flagged · 2 markets analysed
  • Jeisla Chaves wins
    Strong edge
    Model 25%
    Bookies 19%
    EV / $100 +$34
    Stake 2.0%
    5.30
    $20 returns $106
    +$86 profit
AW
Anthony Wint
nan
SB 1.08
73% | 27%
Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 10:15 AM AEST
TC
Terrance Chatman
United States 0-0-0 nan
SB 8.00
Breakdown ▼
1 value bet on SportsBet
Model Favourite
Anthony Wint
73.2 %
050100
CI · 43 – 98 · σ 0.102 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Model uncertainty: ±10pp on the win probability
Method Breakdown
Wint Chatman
KO/TKO 28.9
9.6
Submission 23.5
7.2
Decision 20.8
10.0
Finish Distribution · By Round
41
R1
16
R2
9
R3
31
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Wint Chatman
Str/min 0.0
0.0
Sig Acc 0%
0%
Str Def 0%
0%
TD/min 0.00
0.00
Finish 0%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
21
21
WintChatman
Combined 35 13–136
Takedowns
0.1
0.1
WintChatman
Combined 1.2 0.0–4.7
Fight length
Expected 1.7 of 3 rounds 33% chance it goes the distance
Value Bets · SportsBet 1 flagged · 2 markets analysed
  • Terrance Chatman wins
    Strong edge
    Model 27%
    Bookies 12%
    EV / $100 +$114
    Stake 4.1%
    8.00
    $41 returns $328
    +$287 profit
Jamall Emmers
Jamall Emmers
United States 22-8-0 Kickboxer Orthodox 2-fight win streak
SB 4.00
27% | 73%
Featherweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 9:35 AM AEST
Lerryan Douglas
Lerryan Douglas
Brazil 14-5-0 MMA Orthodox 1 win
SB 1.25
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Lerryan Douglas
72.8 %
050100
CI · 43 – 98 · σ 0.052 · High
Why this pick
  • Lerryan Douglas lands 1.3 more sig strikes per minute
  • Lerryan Douglas finishes by KO 43% more often
  • Lerryan Douglas finishes 32% more of their wins
  • the case against Jamall Emmers eats 1.2 fewer strikes per minute
  • Lerryan Douglas out-volumes opponents at 6.2 sig/min vs Jamall Emmers's 4.9
Method Breakdown
Emmers Douglas
KO/TKO 4.4
26.5
Submission 2.7
3.8
Decision 20.1
42.5
Finish Distribution · By Round
19
R1
11
R2
7
R3
63
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Emmers Douglas
Str/min 4.9
6.2
Sig Acc 47%
46%
Str Def 59%
63%
TD/min 0.18
0.00
Finish 44%
76%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
44
41
EmmersDouglas
Combined 89 18–147
Takedowns
0.7
0.0
EmmersDouglas
Combined 1.4 0.0–5.0
Fight length
Expected 2.3 of 3 rounds 63% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Emmers

    Jamall Emmers eats 1.2 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Douglas

    Lerryan Douglas lands 1.3 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 KO rate favours Douglas

    Lerryan Douglas finishes by KO 43% more often

  • 04 Finish rate favours Douglas

    Lerryan Douglas finishes 32% more of their wins

  • 05 Win streak favours Emmers

    Jamall Emmers rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 06 Takedown volume favours Emmers

    Jamall Emmers hits 0.18 more takedowns per minute

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed
No markets passed the value gate. 2 markets analysed.
Kennedy Nzechukwu
Kennedy Nzechukwu
United States 14-6-1 Wrestler Southpaw 2-fight loss streak
SB 2.17
59% | 41%
Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 9:15 AM AEST
Shamil Gaziev
Shamil Gaziev
Russia 14-3-0 MMA Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
SB 1.70
Breakdown ▼
1 value bet on SportsBet
Model Favourite
Kennedy Nzechukwu
59.2 %
050100
CI · 29 – 89 · σ 0.045 · High
Why this pick
  • Kennedy Nzechukwu lands 1.7 more sig strikes per minute
  • Kennedy Nzechukwu eats 0.6 fewer strikes per minute
  • Kennedy Nzechukwu has been KO'd 37% less often
  • the case against Shamil Gaziev finishes by KO 30% more often
  • Kennedy Nzechukwu out-volumes opponents at 4.7 sig/min vs Shamil Gaziev's 3.0
Method Breakdown
Nzechukwu Gaziev
KO/TKO 44.7
21.2
Submission 1.7
8.7
Decision 12.7
10.9
Finish Distribution · By Round
47
R1
23
R2
7
R3
24
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Nzechukwu Gaziev
Str/min 4.7
3.0
Sig Acc 50%
45%
Str Def 51%
45%
TD/min 0.04
0.07
Finish 73%
83%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
36
25
NzechukwuGaziev
Combined 68 13–124
Takedowns
0.0
0.2
NzechukwuGaziev
Combined 0.7 0.0–4.0
Fight length
Expected 1.4 of 3 rounds 23% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Nzechukwu

    Kennedy Nzechukwu lands 1.7 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Nzechukwu

    Kennedy Nzechukwu eats 0.6 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 KO rate favours Gaziev

    Shamil Gaziev finishes by KO 30% more often

  • 04 KO durability favours Nzechukwu

    Kennedy Nzechukwu has been KO'd 37% less often

  • 05 Finish rate favours Gaziev

    Shamil Gaziev finishes 10% more of their wins

  • 06 Control time favours Gaziev

    Shamil Gaziev controls 23% more cage time

Value Bets · SportsBet 1 flagged · 2 markets analysed
  • Kennedy Nzechukwu wins
    Strong edge
    Model 59%
    Bookies 46%
    EV / $100 +$28
    Stake 6.1%
    2.17
    $61 returns $132
    +$71 profit
Chris Padilla
Chris Padilla
United States 17-6-1 Orthodox 1 loss
SB 2.00
53% | 47%
Lightweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 8:50 AM AEST
Nasrat Haqparast
Nasrat Haqparast
Germany 18-6-0 Muay Thai Southpaw 1 loss
SB 1.84
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Chris Padilla
52.8 %
050100
CI · 23 – 83 · σ 0.066 · High
Why this pick
  • Chris Padilla eats 1.1 fewer strikes per minute
  • Chris Padilla finishes 33% more of their wins
  • Chris Padilla taps opponents 20% more often
  • the case against Nasrat Haqparast lands 0.2 more sig strikes per minute
  • Chris Padilla has never been finished in 5 fights
Method Breakdown
Padilla Haqparast
KO/TKO 14.4
18.6
Submission 6.3
1.9
Decision 32.0
26.7
Finish Distribution · By Round
21
R1
13
R2
6
R3
59
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Padilla Haqparast
Str/min 6.2
6.4
Sig Acc 54%
46%
Str Def 49%
63%
TD/min 0.08
0.02
Finish 60%
27%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
62
59
PadillaHaqparast
Combined 122 22–193
Takedowns
0.0
0.0
PadillaHaqparast
Combined 0.5 0.0–4.0
Fight length
Expected 2.2 of 3 rounds 59% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Padilla

    Chris Padilla eats 1.1 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Finish rate favours Padilla

    Chris Padilla finishes 33% more of their wins

  • 03 Submission rate favours Padilla

    Chris Padilla taps opponents 20% more often

  • 04 KO rate favours Padilla

    Chris Padilla finishes by KO 13% more often

  • 05 Striking volume favours Haqparast

    Nasrat Haqparast lands 0.2 more sig strikes per minute

  • 06 Striking defence favours Haqparast

    Nasrat Haqparast avoids 14% more incoming strikes

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed
No markets passed the value gate. 2 markets analysed.
Marcio Barbosa
Marcio Barbosa
Brazil 17-2-0 MMA Orthodox 1 win
SB 1.10
75% | 25%
Featherweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 8:50 AM AEST
RK
Ryan Kuse
United States 0-0-0 nan
SB 7.00
Breakdown ▼
1 value bet on SportsBet
Model Favourite
Marcio Barbosa
75.5 %
050100
CI · 45 – 98 · σ 0.062 · High
Why this pick
  • Marcio Barbosa rides a 1-fight longer win streak
  • Marcio Barbosa has never been finished in 1 fights
Method Breakdown
Barbosa Kuse
KO/TKO 29.7
6.3
Submission 12.7
5.9
Decision 33.0
12.4
Finish Distribution · By Round
39
R1
10
R2
4
R3
45
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Barbosa Kuse
Str/min 2.3
0.0
Sig Acc 38%
0%
Str Def 62%
0%
TD/min 0.00
0.00
Finish 76%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
21
21
BarbosaKuse
Combined 49 15–127
Takedowns
0.0
0.0
BarbosaKuse
Combined 1.4 0.0–4.7
Fight length
Expected 1.8 of 3 rounds 46% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Barbosa

    Marcio Barbosa rides a 1-fight longer win streak

Value Bets · SportsBet 1 flagged · 2 markets analysed
  • Ryan Kuse wins
    Strong edge
    Model 25%
    Bookies 14%
    EV / $100 +$72
    Stake 3.0%
    7.00
    $30 returns $210
    +$180 profit
Gauge Young
Gauge Young
United States 11-3-0 MMA Orthodox 2-fight win streak
SB 1.78
60% | 40%
Lightweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 8:25 AM AEST
SD
Stan Dorsainvil
United States 0-0-0 nan
SB 2.08
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Gauge Young
60.5 %
050100
CI · 30 – 90 · σ 0.070 · High
Why this pick
  • Gauge Young rides a 2-fight longer win streak
  • Gauge Young out-volumes opponents at 6.2 sig/min vs Stan Dorsainvil's 0.0
Method Breakdown
Young Dorsainvil
KO/TKO 19.4
10.9
Submission 9.3
7.3
Decision 31.7
21.3
Finish Distribution · By Round
25
R1
15
R2
7
R3
53
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Young Dorsainvil
Str/min 6.2
0.0
Sig Acc 46%
0%
Str Def 51%
0%
TD/min 0.06
0.00
Finish 0%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
44
31
YoungDorsainvil
Combined 83 20–161
Takedowns
0.2
0.1
YoungDorsainvil
Combined 1.3 0.0–4.4
Fight length
Expected 2.1 of 3 rounds 53% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Young

    Gauge Young rides a 2-fight longer win streak

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed
No markets passed the value gate. 2 markets analysed.
Wes Schultz
Wes Schultz
United States 9-3-0 MMA Orthodox 1 win
SB 2.47
38% | 62%
Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 7:35 AM AEST
Jackson McVey
Jackson McVey
United States 7-2-0 Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Southpaw 1 win
SB 1.55
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Jackson McVey
62.1 %
050100
CI · 32 – 92 · σ 0.074 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Jackson McVey lands 5.5 more sig strikes per minute
  • Jackson McVey has been KO'd 50% less often
  • the case against Wes Schultz eats 1.5 fewer strikes per minute
  • Jackson McVey out-volumes opponents at 6.5 sig/min vs Wes Schultz's 1.0
Method Breakdown
Schultz McVey
KO/TKO 1.9
13.0
Submission 29.1
31.4
Decision 6.9
17.7
Finish Distribution · By Round
46
R1
23
R2
7
R3
25
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Schultz McVey
Str/min 1.0
6.5
Sig Acc 50%
69%
Str Def 31%
24%
TD/min 0.00
0.00
Finish 100%
100%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
13
19
SchultzMcVey
Combined 40 10–107
Takedowns
0.8
0.5
SchultzMcVey
Combined 1.5 0.0–4.2
Fight length
Expected 1.5 of 3 rounds 25% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours McVey

    Jackson McVey lands 5.5 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Schultz

    Wes Schultz eats 1.5 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 KO rate favours Schultz

    Wes Schultz finishes by KO 50% more often

  • 04 KO durability favours McVey

    Jackson McVey has been KO'd 50% less often

  • 05 Sub defence favours Schultz

    Wes Schultz has been submitted 67% less often

  • 06 Submission rate favours Schultz

    Wes Schultz taps opponents 17% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed
No markets passed the value gate. 2 markets analysed.
Elise Reed
Elise Reed
United States 8-5-0 Striker Orthodox 1 loss
SB 6.05
18% | 82%
Women's Strawweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 7:10 AM AEST
Shanelle Dyer
Shanelle Dyer
England 7-1-0 Muay Thai Orthodox 1 win
SB 1.13
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Shanelle Dyer
82.0 %
050100
CI · 52 – 98 · σ 0.065 · High
Why this pick
  • Shanelle Dyer lands 2.5 more sig strikes per minute
  • Shanelle Dyer finishes by KO 43% more often
  • Shanelle Dyer rides a 1-fight longer win streak
  • the case against Elise Reed eats 0.9 fewer strikes per minute
  • Shanelle Dyer out-volumes opponents at 5.9 sig/min vs Elise Reed's 3.4
Method Breakdown
Reed Dyer
KO/TKO 7.2
32.1
Submission 2.6
13.8
Decision 8.2
36.1
Finish Distribution · By Round
29
R1
18
R2
8
R3
44
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Reed Dyer
Str/min 3.4
5.9
Sig Acc 53%
48%
Str Def 52%
68%
TD/min 0.03
0.12
Finish 56%
76%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
33
37
ReedDyer
Combined 68 16–145
Takedowns
0.0
0.6
ReedDyer
Combined 1.5 0.0–4.8
Fight length
Expected 2.0 of 3 rounds 44% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Dyer

    Shanelle Dyer lands 2.5 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Reed

    Elise Reed eats 0.9 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 KO rate favours Dyer

    Shanelle Dyer finishes by KO 43% more often

  • 04 Win streak favours Dyer

    Shanelle Dyer rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 05 Takedown defence favours Dyer

    Shanelle Dyer stuffs 47% more incoming takedowns

  • 06 Finish rate favours Dyer

    Shanelle Dyer finishes 20% more of their wins

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed
No markets passed the value gate. 2 markets analysed.
BM
Mir
Main Event
52%
Model Leans Apodaca
2026-08-25
AA
Apodaca
Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 3
2026
25
AUG
UPCOMING CARD

Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 3

Meta APEX, Las Vegas, USA
5
Bouts
BM
Bella Mir
nan
48% | 52%
Women's Bantamweight 5 rds
AA
Alexis Apodaca
nan
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Alexis Apodaca
52.0 %
050100
CI · 22 – 82 · σ 0.087 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Model uncertainty: ±9pp on the win probability
Method Breakdown
Mir Apodaca
KO/TKO 13.2
11.6
Submission 12.8
15.3
Decision 21.9
25.1
Finish Distribution · By Round
15
R1
13
R2
13
R3
8
R4
4
R5
47
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Mir Apodaca
Str/min 0.0
0.0
Sig Acc 0%
0%
Str Def 0%
0%
TD/min 0.00
0.00
Finish 0%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
30
34
MirApodaca
Combined 57 19–164
Takedowns
0.1
0.1
MirApodaca
Combined 1.8 0.0–5.4
Fight length
Expected 3.4 of 5 rounds 47% chance it goes the distance
Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
MP
Mario Piazzon
Orthodox
51% | 49%
Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Wed 9:00 AM AEST
GU
Guilherme Uriel
Orthodox
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Mario Piazzon
51.3 %
050100
CI · 21 – 81 · σ 0.055 · High
Why this pick
  • Model uncertainty: ±5pp on the win probability
Method Breakdown
Piazzon Uriel
KO/TKO 22.0
19.1
Submission 10.6
8.2
Decision 18.7
21.5
Finish Distribution · By Round
35
R1
16
R2
8
R3
40
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Piazzon Uriel
Str/min 0.0
0.0
Sig Acc 0%
0%
Str Def 0%
0%
TD/min 0.00
0.00
Finish 0%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
29
29
PiazzonUriel
Combined 56 15–145
Takedowns
0.1
0.1
PiazzonUriel
Combined 1.0 0.0–4.7
Fight length
Expected 1.8 of 3 rounds 40% chance it goes the distance
Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
GB
Gary Balletto
nan
38% | 62%
Welterweight 3 rds
⏱ Wed 9:00 AM AEST
SJ
Sean Clancy Jr.
nan
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Sean Clancy Jr.
61.9 %
050100
CI · 32 – 92 · σ 0.063 · High
Why this pick
  • Sean Clancy Jr. is favoured at 62% — fight-history features sparse
  • Model uncertainty: ±6pp on the win probability
Method Breakdown
Balletto Jr.
KO/TKO 9.4
16.8
Submission 8.0
16.4
Decision 20.8
28.7
Finish Distribution · By Round
36
R1
9
R2
6
R3
49
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Balletto Jr.
Str/min 0.0
0.0
Sig Acc 0%
0%
Str Def 0%
0%
TD/min 0.00
0.00
Finish 0%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
23
25
BallettoJr.
Combined 46 13–152
Takedowns
0.1
0.2
BallettoJr.
Combined 2.0 0.0–5.1
Fight length
Expected 1.9 of 3 rounds 50% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Model lean favours Jr.

    Sean Clancy Jr. is favoured at 62% — fight-history features sparse

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
RH
Ronald Humphrey
nan
55% | 45%
Welterweight 3 rds
⏱ Wed 9:00 AM AEST
AM
Alexis Miranda
nan
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Ronald Humphrey
54.6 %
050100
CI · 25 – 85 · σ 0.053 · High
Why this pick
  • Ronald Humphrey is favoured at 55% — fight-history features sparse
  • Model uncertainty: ±5pp on the win probability
Method Breakdown
Humphrey Miranda
KO/TKO 13.4
14.1
Submission 11.5
8.6
Decision 29.8
22.7
Finish Distribution · By Round
34
R1
8
R2
6
R3
52
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Humphrey Miranda
Str/min 0.0
0.0
Sig Acc 0%
0%
Str Def 0%
0%
TD/min 0.00
0.00
Finish 0%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
24
22
HumphreyMiranda
Combined 46 13–152
Takedowns
0.1
0.1
HumphreyMiranda
Combined 2.0 0.0–5.1
Fight length
Expected 2.0 of 3 rounds 52% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Model lean favours Humphrey

    Ronald Humphrey is favoured at 55% — fight-history features sparse

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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CP
Carlos Petruzella
nan
49% | 51%
Middleweight 5 rds
NG
Nick Galanti
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Nick Galanti
51.0 %
050100
CI · 21 – 81 · σ 0.104 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Model uncertainty: ±10pp on the win probability
Method Breakdown
Petruzella Galanti
KO/TKO 18.3
15.3
Submission 14.9
15.0
Decision 15.8
20.8
Finish Distribution · By Round
16
R1
20
R2
14
R3
9
R4
4
R5
37
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Petruzella Galanti
Str/min 0.0
0.0
Sig Acc 0%
0%
Str Def 0%
0%
TD/min 0.00
0.00
Finish 0%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
22
23
PetruzellaGalanti
Combined 45 18–164
Takedowns
0.1
0.1
PetruzellaGalanti
Combined 1.8 0.0–5.4
Fight length
Expected 3.1 of 5 rounds 37% chance it goes the distance
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Song Yadong
Yadong
Main Event
79%
Model Leans Nurmagomedov
2026-08-29
Umar Nurmagomedov
Nurmagomedov
UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song
2026
29
AUG
UPCOMING CARD

UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song

Shanghai Oriental Sports Center, Shanghai, China
9
Bouts
Song Yadong
Song Yadong
China 22-9-1 Boxer Orthodox 1 win
SB 4.70
21% | 79%
Bantamweight 5 rds
⏱ Sat 29 Aug · 10:45 PM AEST
Umar Nurmagomedov
Umar Nurmagomedov
Russia 20-1-0 MMA Orthodox 2-fight win streak
SB 1.18
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Umar Nurmagomedov
78.8 %
050100
CI · 49 – 98 · σ 0.047 · High
Why this pick
  • Umar Nurmagomedov eats 1.9 fewer strikes per minute
  • Umar Nurmagomedov rides a 1-fight longer win streak
  • Umar Nurmagomedov hits 0.21 more takedowns per minute
  • the case against Song Yadong lands 0.5 more sig strikes per minute
  • Umar Nurmagomedov has never been finished in 9 fights
Method Breakdown
Yadong Nurmagomedov
KO/TKO 11.7
10.6
Submission 1.1
11.0
Decision 8.4
57.2
Finish Distribution · By Round
6
R1
11
R2
9
R3
6
R4
3
R5
66
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Yadong Nurmagomedov
Str/min 4.3
3.9
Sig Acc 44%
56%
Str Def 55%
61%
TD/min 0.05
0.27
Finish 47%
33%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
52
53
YadongNurmagomedov
Combined 105 23–181
Takedowns
0.0
2.3
YadongNurmagomedov
Combined 2.3 0.0–5.7
Fight length
Expected 4.0 of 5 rounds 65% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Nurmagomedov

    Umar Nurmagomedov eats 1.9 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Nurmagomedov

    Umar Nurmagomedov rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 03 Striking volume favours Yadong

    Song Yadong lands 0.5 more sig strikes per minute

  • 04 KO rate favours Yadong

    Song Yadong finishes by KO 24% more often

  • 05 Takedown volume favours Nurmagomedov

    Umar Nurmagomedov hits 0.21 more takedowns per minute

  • 06 Finish rate favours Yadong

    Song Yadong finishes 14% more of their wins

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed
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Yan Xiaonan
Yan Xiaonan
China 19-5-0 Striker Orthodox 1 loss
33% | 67%
Women's Strawweight 3 rds
⏱ Sat 29 Aug · 8:00 PM AEST
Denise Gomes
Denise Gomes
Brazil 12-3-0 MMA Orthodox 4-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Denise Gomes
67.3 %
050100
CI · 37 – 97 · σ 0.073 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Denise Gomes rides a 4-fight longer win streak
  • Denise Gomes finishes 22% more of their wins
  • Denise Gomes finishes by KO 22% more often
  • the case against Yan Xiaonan lands 0.7 more sig strikes per minute
  • Denise Gomes rides a 4-fight win streak (Yan Xiaonan: 0)
Method Breakdown
Xiaonan Gomes
KO/TKO 5.8
38.4
Submission 1.9
2.2
Decision 24.9
26.7
Finish Distribution · By Round
23
R1
18
R2
7
R3
52
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Xiaonan Gomes
Str/min 4.7
4.0
Sig Acc 45%
51%
Str Def 60%
46%
TD/min 0.06
0.11
Finish 15%
38%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
49
53
XiaonanGomes
Combined 115 22–159
Takedowns
0.1
0.8
XiaonanGomes
Combined 1.4 0.0–4.5
Fight length
Expected 2.1 of 3 rounds 52% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Gomes

    Denise Gomes rides a 4-fight longer win streak

  • 02 Striking volume favours Xiaonan

    Yan Xiaonan lands 0.7 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Finish rate favours Gomes

    Denise Gomes finishes 22% more of their wins

  • 04 KO rate favours Gomes

    Denise Gomes finishes by KO 22% more often

  • 05 Strikes absorbed favours Gomes

    Denise Gomes eats 0.2 fewer strikes per minute

  • 06 Striking defence favours Xiaonan

    Yan Xiaonan avoids 15% more incoming strikes

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Kai Asakura
Kai Asakura
Japan 21-6-0 Orthodox 1 win
67% | 33%
Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Sat 29 Aug · 8:00 PM AEST
AO
Aoriqileng
China 26-11-0 Orthodox 1 loss
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Kai Asakura
66.6 %
050100
CI · 37 – 97 · σ 0.057 · High
Why this pick
  • Kai Asakura eats 2.3 fewer strikes per minute
  • Kai Asakura finishes 60% more of their wins
  • Kai Asakura rides a 1-fight longer win streak
  • the case against Aoriqileng lands 1.9 more sig strikes per minute
  • Aoriqileng out-volumes opponents at 4.4 sig/min vs Kai Asakura's 2.5
Method Breakdown
Asakura Aoriqileng
KO/TKO 21.8
18.7
Submission 5.9
3.0
Decision 38.9
11.8
Finish Distribution · By Round
26
R1
16
R2
7
R3
51
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Asakura Aoriqileng
Str/min 2.5
4.4
Sig Acc 34%
50%
Str Def 52%
47%
TD/min 0.00
0.07
Finish 100%
40%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
38
37
AsakuraAoriqileng
Combined 88 18–151
Takedowns
0.2
0.2
AsakuraAoriqileng
Combined 1.1 0.0–4.3
Fight length
Expected 2.1 of 3 rounds 51% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Asakura

    Kai Asakura eats 2.3 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Aoriqileng

    Aoriqileng lands 1.9 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Finish rate favours Asakura

    Kai Asakura finishes 60% more of their wins

  • 04 Win streak favours Asakura

    Kai Asakura rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 05 Sub defence favours Aoriqileng

    Aoriqileng has been submitted 67% less often

  • 06 Striking accuracy favours Aoriqileng

    Aoriqileng is 16% more accurate on the feet

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Alex Perez
Alex Perez
United States 26-10-0 Freestyle Orthodox 1 loss
34% | 66%
Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sat 29 Aug · 8:00 PM AEST
SU
Sumudaerji
China 19-7-0 Striker Southpaw 1 loss
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Sumudaerji
66.4 %
050100
CI · 36 – 96 · σ 0.081 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Sumudaerji eats 0.9 fewer strikes per minute
  • Sumudaerji lands 0.2 more sig strikes per minute
  • the case against Alex Perez finishes 37% more of their wins
  • Alex Perez has never been finished in 15 fights
Method Breakdown
Perez Sumudaerji
KO/TKO 8.6
19.9
Submission 9.0
2.0
Decision 16.0
44.5
Finish Distribution · By Round
21
R1
13
R2
6
R3
60
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Perez Sumudaerji
Str/min 4.2
4.4
Sig Acc 46%
50%
Str Def 59%
63%
TD/min 0.14
0.05
Finish 73%
36%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
34
41
PerezSumudaerji
Combined 80 20–134
Takedowns
1.5
0.0
PerezSumudaerji
Combined 1.7 0.0–4.5
Fight length
Expected 2.3 of 3 rounds 61% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Sumudaerji

    Sumudaerji eats 0.9 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Finish rate favours Perez

    Alex Perez finishes 37% more of their wins

  • 03 KO rate favours Perez

    Alex Perez finishes by KO 31% more often

  • 04 Submission rate favours Perez

    Alex Perez taps opponents 13% more often

  • 05 Striking volume favours Sumudaerji

    Sumudaerji lands 0.2 more sig strikes per minute

  • 06 Takedown volume favours Perez

    Alex Perez hits 0.09 more takedowns per minute

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Junior Tafa
Junior Tafa
Australia 7-5-0 Kickboxer Orthodox 1 loss
47% | 53%
Light Heavyweight 3 rds
LC
Liu Ce
China 0-0-0 nan
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Liu Ce
52.5 %
050100
CI · 23 – 83 · σ 0.089 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Liu Ce comes in on a 1-fight cleaner skid
  • Junior Tafa has a 9-fight UFC experience edge (9 vs 0)
Method Breakdown
Tafa Ce
KO/TKO 35.6
26.3
Submission 2.9
11.7
Decision 9.0
14.5
Finish Distribution · By Round
54
R1
13
R2
9
R3
24
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Tafa Ce
Str/min 3.5
0.0
Sig Acc 52%
0%
Str Def 52%
0%
TD/min 0.00
0.00
Finish 89%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
31
21
TafaCe
Combined 53 14–110
Takedowns
0.0
0.0
TafaCe
Combined 0.8 0.0–4.4
Fight length
Expected 1.4 of 3 rounds 24% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Loss streak favours Ce

    Liu Ce comes in on a 1-fight cleaner skid

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Namsrai Batbayar
Namsrai Batbayar
9-1-0 Orthodox
28% | 72%
Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sat 29 Aug · 8:00 PM AEST
Andre Lima
Andre Lima
Brazil 11-0-0 Kickboxer Orthodox 1 loss
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Andre Lima
72.4 %
050100
CI · 42 – 98 · σ 0.030 · High
Why this pick
  • the case against Namsrai Batbayar comes in on a 1-fight cleaner skid
  • Andre Lima has never been finished in 4 fights
Method Breakdown
Batbayar Lima
KO/TKO 0.2
18.5
Submission 8.6
12.7
Decision 18.8
41.2
Finish Distribution · By Round
21
R1
13
R2
6
R3
60
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Batbayar Lima
Str/min 0.0
3.9
Sig Acc 0%
56%
Str Def 0%
58%
TD/min 0.00
0.07
Finish 0%
25%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
26
40
BatbayarLima
Combined 64 20–125
Takedowns
0.0
0.4
BatbayarLima
Combined 2.1 0.0–4.7
Fight length
Expected 2.2 of 3 rounds 60% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Loss streak favours Batbayar

    Namsrai Batbayar comes in on a 1-fight cleaner skid

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Sean Woodson
Sean Woodson
United States 13-2-1 Freestyle Orthodox 1 loss
69% | 31%
Featherweight 3 rds
⏱ Sat 29 Aug · 5:00 PM AEST
Jack Jenkins
Jack Jenkins
Australia 14-4-0 Freestyle Switch Stance 1 win
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Sean Woodson
68.8 %
050100
CI · 39 – 98 · σ 0.060 · High
Why this pick
  • Sean Woodson lands 1.2 more sig strikes per minute
  • Sean Woodson stuffs 17% more incoming takedowns
  • the case against Jack Jenkins eats 1.1 fewer strikes per minute
  • Sean Woodson out-volumes opponents at 5.8 sig/min vs Jack Jenkins's 4.6
Method Breakdown
Woodson Jenkins
KO/TKO 23.6
3.4
Submission 7.5
1.8
Decision 37.7
26.0
Finish Distribution · By Round
10
R1
15
R2
10
R3
64
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Woodson Jenkins
Str/min 5.8
4.6
Sig Acc 47%
60%
Str Def 59%
58%
TD/min 0.04
0.10
Finish 40%
50%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
52
53
WoodsonJenkins
Combined 108 23–162
Takedowns
0.0
0.3
WoodsonJenkins
Combined 1.0 0.0–4.0
Fight length
Expected 2.5 of 3 rounds 64% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Jenkins

    Jack Jenkins eats 1.1 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Woodson

    Sean Woodson lands 1.2 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Win streak favours Jenkins

    Jack Jenkins rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 04 Finish rate favours Jenkins

    Jack Jenkins finishes 10% more of their wins

  • 05 Striking accuracy favours Jenkins

    Jack Jenkins is 13% more accurate on the feet

  • 06 Takedown defence favours Woodson

    Sean Woodson stuffs 17% more incoming takedowns

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Rei Tsuruya
Rei Tsuruya
Japan 10-1-0 MMA Orthodox 1 win
72% | 28%
Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sat 29 Aug · 5:00 PM AEST
Kevin Borjas
Kevin Borjas
Peru 10-5-0 Orthodox 1 win
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Rei Tsuruya
72.2 %
050100
CI · 42 – 98 · σ 0.031 · High
Why this pick
  • Rei Tsuruya eats 3.5 fewer strikes per minute
  • Rei Tsuruya taps opponents 33% more often
  • Rei Tsuruya hits 0.24 more takedowns per minute
  • the case against Kevin Borjas lands 1.5 more sig strikes per minute
  • Rei Tsuruya has never been finished in 3 fights
Method Breakdown
Tsuruya Borjas
KO/TKO 13.8
10.0
Submission 20.0
2.4
Decision 38.5
15.3
Finish Distribution · By Round
24
R1
15
R2
7
R3
54
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Tsuruya Borjas
Str/min 2.0
3.5
Sig Acc 46%
42%
Str Def 42%
50%
TD/min 0.24
0.00
Finish 33%
33%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
39
31
TsuruyaBorjas
Combined 68 19–123
Takedowns
1.5
0.0
TsuruyaBorjas
Combined 2.4 0.0–5.4
Fight length
Expected 2.1 of 3 rounds 54% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Tsuruya

    Rei Tsuruya eats 3.5 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Borjas

    Kevin Borjas lands 1.5 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 KO rate favours Borjas

    Kevin Borjas finishes by KO 33% more often

  • 04 Submission rate favours Tsuruya

    Rei Tsuruya taps opponents 33% more often

  • 05 Takedown volume favours Tsuruya

    Rei Tsuruya hits 0.24 more takedowns per minute

  • 06 Takedown defence favours Borjas

    Kevin Borjas stuffs 31% more incoming takedowns

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
XJ
Xiong Jingnan
0-1-0 nan 1 loss
5% | 95%
Women's Strawweight 3 rds
Julia Polastri
Julia Polastri
Brazil 14-6-0 Striker Orthodox 1 loss
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Julia Polastri
94.6 %
050100
CI · 65 – 98 · σ 0.051 · High
Why this pick
  • Julia Polastri eats 2.9 fewer strikes per minute
  • Julia Polastri lands 1.7 more sig strikes per minute
  • Julia Polastri finishes 20% more of their wins
  • Julia Polastri out-volumes opponents at 6.2 sig/min vs Xiong Jingnan's 4.5
Method Breakdown
Jingnan Polastri
KO/TKO 1.6
11.7
Submission 0.0
12.2
Decision 3.8
70.8
Finish Distribution · By Round
13
R1
7
R2
5
R3
75
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Jingnan Polastri
Str/min 4.5
6.2
Sig Acc 34%
58%
Str Def 38%
58%
TD/min 0.00
0.04
Finish 0%
20%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
53
69
JingnanPolastri
Combined 114 22–186
Takedowns
0.1
0.1
JingnanPolastri
Combined 0.9 0.0–4.2
Fight length
Expected 2.5 of 3 rounds 75% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Polastri

    Julia Polastri eats 2.9 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Polastri

    Julia Polastri lands 1.7 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Finish rate favours Polastri

    Julia Polastri finishes 20% more of their wins

  • 04 KO rate favours Polastri

    Julia Polastri finishes by KO 20% more often

  • 05 Striking accuracy favours Polastri

    Julia Polastri is 24% more accurate on the feet

  • 06 Striking defence favours Polastri

    Julia Polastri avoids 20% more incoming strikes

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PR
Rivera
Main Event
60%
Model Leans Darby
2026-09-01
AD
Darby
Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 4
2026
01
SEP
UPCOMING CARD

Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 4

Meta APEX, Las Vegas, USA
5
Bouts
PR
Patrick Rivera
nan
40% | 60%
Welterweight 5 rds
⏱ Wed 2 Sep · 9:00 AM AEST
AD
Adam Darby
nan
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Adam Darby
60.1 %
050100
CI · 30 – 90 · σ 0.064 · High
Why this pick
  • Adam Darby is favoured at 60% — fight-history features sparse
  • Model uncertainty: ±6pp on the win probability
Method Breakdown
Rivera Darby
KO/TKO 11.8
21.4
Submission 10.1
14.7
Decision 18.0
24.1
Finish Distribution · By Round
27
R1
10
R2
11
R3
7
R4
3
R5
42
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Rivera Darby
Str/min 0.0
0.0
Sig Acc 0%
0%
Str Def 0%
0%
TD/min 0.00
0.00
Finish 0%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
24
27
RiveraDarby
Combined 52 17–172
Takedowns
0.1
0.2
RiveraDarby
Combined 2.0 0.0–5.5
Fight length
Expected 3.0 of 5 rounds 42% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Model lean favours Darby

    Adam Darby is favoured at 60% — fight-history features sparse

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BH
Brandon Holmes
Orthodox
38% | 62%
Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Wed 2 Sep · 9:00 AM AEST
MR
Modestino Rodrigues
nan
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Modestino Rodrigues
61.8 %
050100
CI · 32 – 92 · σ 0.073 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Modestino Rodrigues is favoured at 62% — fight-history features sparse
  • Model uncertainty: ±7pp on the win probability
Method Breakdown
Holmes Rodrigues
KO/TKO 9.4
17.2
Submission 8.0
16.9
Decision 20.8
27.7
Finish Distribution · By Round
26
R1
15
R2
10
R3
48
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Holmes Rodrigues
Str/min 0.0
0.0
Sig Acc 0%
0%
Str Def 0%
0%
TD/min 0.00
0.00
Finish 0%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
24
25
HolmesRodrigues
Combined 47 14–140
Takedowns
0.1
0.2
HolmesRodrigues
Combined 2.0 0.0–4.8
Fight length
Expected 2.1 of 3 rounds 49% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Model lean favours Rodrigues

    Modestino Rodrigues is favoured at 62% — fight-history features sparse

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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LM
Liam McCracken
nan
48% | 52%
Lightweight 3 rds
⏱ Wed 2 Sep · 9:00 AM AEST
SS
Silvestre Sanchez
nan
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Silvestre Sanchez
52.5 %
050100
CI · 22 – 82 · σ 0.074 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Silvestre Sanchez is favoured at 52% — fight-history features sparse
  • Model uncertainty: ±7pp on the win probability
Method Breakdown
McCracken Sanchez
KO/TKO 11.7
14.6
Submission 10.0
14.3
Decision 25.9
23.5
Finish Distribution · By Round
27
R1
16
R2
8
R3
49
DEC
Key Stats career avg
McCracken Sanchez
Str/min 0.0
0.0
Sig Acc 0%
0%
Str Def 0%
0%
TD/min 0.00
0.00
Finish 0%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
24
25
McCrackenSanchez
Combined 48 14–132
Takedowns
0.1
0.1
McCrackenSanchez
Combined 2.0 0.0–5.0
Fight length
Expected 2.0 of 3 rounds 49% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Model lean favours Sanchez

    Silvestre Sanchez is favoured at 52% — fight-history features sparse

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GL
Gabriel Lorenco
nan
54% | 46%
Heavyweight 3 rds
CC
Charlie Cleveland
nan
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Gabriel Lorenco
54.3 %
050100
CI · 24 – 84 · σ 0.060 · High
Why this pick
  • Gabriel Lorenco is favoured at 54% — fight-history features sparse
  • Model uncertainty: ±6pp on the win probability
Method Breakdown
Lorenco Cleveland
KO/TKO 23.3
19.2
Submission 11.2
8.2
Decision 19.8
18.2
Finish Distribution · By Round
37
R1
17
R2
8
R3
38
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Lorenco Cleveland
Str/min 0.0
0.0
Sig Acc 0%
0%
Str Def 0%
0%
TD/min 0.00
0.00
Finish 0%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
23
23
LorencoCleveland
Combined 43 13–136
Takedowns
0.1
0.1
LorencoCleveland
Combined 1.3 0.0–4.7
Fight length
Expected 1.8 of 3 rounds 38% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Model lean favours Lorenco

    Gabriel Lorenco is favoured at 54% — fight-history features sparse

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AL
Adam Livingston
Orthodox
56% | 44%
Lightweight 3 rds
⏱ Wed 2 Sep · 9:00 AM AEST
Hunter Smith
Hunter Smith
nan
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Adam Livingston
55.9 %
050100
CI · 26 – 86 · σ 0.063 · High
Why this pick
  • Adam Livingston is favoured at 56% — fight-history features sparse
  • Model uncertainty: ±6pp on the win probability
Method Breakdown
Livingston Smith
KO/TKO 13.5
8.7
Submission 12.6
12.9
Decision 29.9
22.6
Finish Distribution · By Round
25
R1
15
R2
7
R3
52
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Livingston Smith
Str/min 0.0
0.0
Sig Acc 0%
0%
Str Def 0%
0%
TD/min 0.00
0.00
Finish 0%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
24
23
LivingstonSmith
Combined 48 14–132
Takedowns
0.1
0.1
LivingstonSmith
Combined 2.0 0.0–5.0
Fight length
Expected 2.1 of 3 rounds 52% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Model lean favours Livingston

    Adam Livingston is favoured at 56% — fight-history features sparse

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Dan Hooker
Hooker
Main Event
76%
Model Leans Hooker
2026-09-05
Salahdine Parnasse
Parnasse
UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse
2026
05
SEP
UPCOMING CARD

UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse

Accor Arena, Paris, France
11
Bouts
Dan Hooker
Dan Hooker
New Zealand 24-14-0 MMA Switch Stance 2-fight loss streak
76% | 24%
Lightweight 5 rds
⏱ Sun 6 Sep · 5:00 AM AEST
Salahdine Parnasse
Salahdine Parnasse
0-0-0 nan
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Dan Hooker
76.0 %
050100
CI · 46 – 98 · σ 0.083 · Medium
Why this pick
  • the case against Salahdine Parnasse comes in on a 2-fight cleaner skid
  • Dan Hooker out-volumes opponents at 4.8 sig/min vs Salahdine Parnasse's 0.0
Method Breakdown
Hooker Parnasse
KO/TKO 20.2
8.3
Submission 36.6
5.1
Decision 19.2
10.7
Finish Distribution · By Round
32
R1
20
R2
6
R3
8
R4
4
R5
30
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Hooker Parnasse
Str/min 4.8
0.0
Sig Acc 49%
0%
Str Def 49%
0%
TD/min 0.05
0.00
Finish 62%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
42
26
HookerParnasse
Combined 71 17–210
Takedowns
0.1
0.1
HookerParnasse
Combined 1.3 0.0–4.5
Fight length
Expected 2.6 of 5 rounds 30% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Loss streak favours Parnasse

    Salahdine Parnasse comes in on a 2-fight cleaner skid

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Fares Ziam
Fares Ziam
France 18-4-0 Kickboxer Orthodox 1 loss
51% | 49%
Lightweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 6 Sep · 5:00 AM AEST
Axel Sola
Axel Sola
France 11-1-1 Karate Southpaw 1 win
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Fares Ziam
51.2 %
050100
CI · 21 – 81 · σ 0.063 · High
Why this pick
  • Fares Ziam eats 2.9 fewer strikes per minute
  • the case against Axel Sola lands 1.8 more sig strikes per minute
  • Axel Sola out-volumes opponents at 4.5 sig/min vs Fares Ziam's 2.7
Method Breakdown
Ziam Sola
KO/TKO 9.7
18.6
Submission 5.5
11.4
Decision 36.0
18.9
Finish Distribution · By Round
21
R1
15
R2
10
R3
55
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Ziam Sola
Str/min 2.7
4.5
Sig Acc 52%
50%
Str Def 64%
61%
TD/min 0.12
0.13
Finish 27%
67%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
43
34
ZiamSola
Combined 75 21–129
Takedowns
1.2
0.2
ZiamSola
Combined 2.0 0.0–5.0
Fight length
Expected 2.2 of 3 rounds 55% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Ziam

    Fares Ziam eats 2.9 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Sola

    Axel Sola lands 1.8 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Finish rate favours Sola

    Axel Sola finishes 39% more of their wins

  • 04 Win streak favours Sola

    Axel Sola rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 05 Submission rate favours Sola

    Axel Sola taps opponents 33% more often

  • 06 KO rate favours Sola

    Axel Sola finishes by KO 15% more often

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Michael Page
Michael Page
United Kingdom 25-3-0 Switch Stance 3-fight win streak
50% | 50%
Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 6 Sep · 5:00 AM AEST
Nursulton Ruziboev
Nursulton Ruziboev
Uzbekistan 36-9-2 Kickboxer Orthodox 3-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Michael Page
50.2 %
050100
CI · 20 – 80 · σ 0.087 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Michael Page eats 1.1 fewer strikes per minute
  • Michael Page stuffs 35% more incoming takedowns
  • the case against Nursulton Ruziboev finishes 67% more of their wins
  • Nursulton Ruziboev has never been finished in 6 fights
Method Breakdown
Page Ruziboev
KO/TKO 24.7
11.9
Submission 1.4
19.8
Decision 24.0
18.2
Finish Distribution · By Round
26
R1
23
R2
9
R3
42
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Page Ruziboev
Str/min 2.1
2.4
Sig Acc 56%
46%
Str Def 62%
49%
TD/min 0.00
0.09
Finish 0%
67%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
32
17
PageRuziboev
Combined 59 17–112
Takedowns
0.1
0.2
PageRuziboev
Combined 1.4 0.0–4.2
Fight length
Expected 2.0 of 3 rounds 42% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Page

    Michael Page eats 1.1 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Finish rate favours Ruziboev

    Nursulton Ruziboev finishes 67% more of their wins

  • 03 KO rate favours Ruziboev

    Nursulton Ruziboev finishes by KO 50% more often

  • 04 Takedown defence favours Page

    Michael Page stuffs 35% more incoming takedowns

  • 05 Submission rate favours Ruziboev

    Nursulton Ruziboev taps opponents 17% more often

  • 06 Striking volume favours Ruziboev

    Nursulton Ruziboev lands 0.2 more sig strikes per minute

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Morgan Charriere
Morgan Charriere
France 21-12-1 MMA Orthodox 1 loss
22% | 78%
Featherweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 6 Sep · 5:00 AM AEST
Felipe Lima
Felipe Lima
Brazil 14-2-0 Striker Orthodox 1 loss
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Felipe Lima
77.9 %
050100
CI · 48 – 98 · σ 0.061 · High
Why this pick
  • Felipe Lima eats 1.6 fewer strikes per minute
  • Felipe Lima taps opponents 33% more often
  • Felipe Lima avoids 11% more incoming strikes
  • the case against Morgan Charriere lands 1.2 more sig strikes per minute
  • Morgan Charriere out-volumes opponents at 4.0 sig/min vs Felipe Lima's 2.9
Method Breakdown
Charriere Lima
KO/TKO 12.4
11.0
Submission 1.2
7.4
Decision 8.5
59.5
Finish Distribution · By Round
17
R1
8
R2
7
R3
68
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Charriere Lima
Str/min 4.0
2.9
Sig Acc 50%
45%
Str Def 54%
65%
TD/min 0.14
0.15
Finish 67%
33%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
34
45
CharriereLima
Combined 93 19–136
Takedowns
0.3
0.9
CharriereLima
Combined 1.5 0.0–4.5
Fight length
Expected 2.4 of 3 rounds 68% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Lima

    Felipe Lima eats 1.6 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Charriere

    Morgan Charriere lands 1.2 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 KO rate favours Charriere

    Morgan Charriere finishes by KO 67% more often

  • 04 Finish rate favours Charriere

    Morgan Charriere finishes 33% more of their wins

  • 05 Submission rate favours Lima

    Felipe Lima taps opponents 33% more often

  • 06 Striking defence favours Lima

    Felipe Lima avoids 11% more incoming strikes

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Muhammad Naimov
Muhammad Naimov
13-4-0 MMA Orthodox 1 loss
23% | 77%
Featherweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 6 Sep · 5:00 AM AEST
LK
Losene Keita
0-1-0 Orthodox 1 loss
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Losene Keita
76.9 %
050100
CI · 47 – 98 · σ 0.068 · High
Why this pick
  • Losene Keita lands 1.1 more sig strikes per minute
  • Losene Keita stuffs 26% more incoming takedowns
  • the case against Muhammad Naimov eats 1.6 fewer strikes per minute
  • Losene Keita has never been finished in 1 fights
Method Breakdown
Naimov Keita
KO/TKO 5.3
30.0
Submission 3.2
0.1
Decision 14.5
46.9
Finish Distribution · By Round
19
R1
12
R2
8
R3
61
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Naimov Keita
Str/min 2.3
3.5
Sig Acc 41%
44%
Str Def 45%
62%
TD/min 0.12
0.00
Finish 57%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
29
44
NaimovKeita
Combined 80 21–129
Takedowns
0.6
0.0
NaimovKeita
Combined 1.6 0.0–4.7
Fight length
Expected 2.3 of 3 rounds 61% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Naimov

    Muhammad Naimov eats 1.6 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Keita

    Losene Keita lands 1.1 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Finish rate favours Naimov

    Muhammad Naimov finishes 57% more of their wins

  • 04 KO rate favours Naimov

    Muhammad Naimov finishes by KO 43% more often

  • 05 Takedown defence favours Keita

    Losene Keita stuffs 26% more incoming takedowns

  • 06 Takedown volume favours Naimov

    Muhammad Naimov hits 0.12 more takedowns per minute

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Ryan Spann
Ryan Spann
United States 24-11-0 MMA Orthodox 2-fight win streak
7% | 93%
Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 6 Sep · 2:00 AM AEST
Mario Pinto
Mario Pinto
Portugal 12-0-0 MMA Orthodox 3-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Mario Pinto
93.1 %
050100
CI · 63 – 98 · σ 0.061 · High
Why this pick
  • Mario Pinto eats 2.0 fewer strikes per minute
  • Mario Pinto rides a 1-fight longer win streak
  • Mario Pinto stuffs 42% more incoming takedowns
  • the case against Ryan Spann lands 0.5 more sig strikes per minute
  • Ryan Spann has a 13-fight UFC experience edge (16 vs 3)
Method Breakdown
Spann Pinto
KO/TKO 0.6
62.3
Submission 4.1
2.5
Decision 2.2
28.2
Finish Distribution · By Round
43
R1
20
R2
6
R3
30
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Spann Pinto
Str/min 3.1
2.5
Sig Acc 39%
67%
Str Def 44%
58%
TD/min 0.08
0.17
Finish 81%
67%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
15
25
SpannPinto
Combined 47 11–105
Takedowns
0.1
1.0
SpannPinto
Combined 1.0 0.0–4.6
Fight length
Expected 1.6 of 3 rounds 31% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Pinto

    Mario Pinto eats 2.0 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Pinto

    Mario Pinto rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 03 Striking volume favours Spann

    Ryan Spann lands 0.5 more sig strikes per minute

  • 04 Takedown defence favours Pinto

    Mario Pinto stuffs 42% more incoming takedowns

  • 05 KO rate favours Pinto

    Mario Pinto finishes by KO 23% more often

  • 06 Submission rate favours Spann

    Ryan Spann taps opponents 25% more often

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TP
Trevor Peek
United States 9-3-0 Switch Stance 2-fight loss streak
41% | 59%
Featherweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 6 Sep · 2:00 AM AEST
Kurtis Campbell
Kurtis Campbell
England 8-1-0 MMA Switch Stance 1 loss
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Kurtis Campbell
59.3 %
050100
CI · 29 – 89 · σ 0.072 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Kurtis Campbell finishes 56% more of their wins
  • Kurtis Campbell finishes by KO 56% more often
  • Kurtis Campbell eats 0.4 fewer strikes per minute
  • the case against Trevor Peek lands 1.7 more sig strikes per minute
  • layoff Peek hasn't fought since Sep 2024 — ring rust is hard to price, so the model widens its uncertainty here
  • Trevor Peek out-volumes opponents at 4.1 sig/min vs Kurtis Campbell's 2.3
Method Breakdown
Peek Campbell
KO/TKO 11.1
8.3
Submission 6.3
6.2
Decision 23.3
44.7
Finish Distribution · By Round
17
R1
7
R2
8
R3
68
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Peek Campbell
Str/min 4.1
2.3
Sig Acc 52%
32%
Str Def 46%
50%
TD/min 0.09
0.28
Finish 20%
76%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
36
34
PeekCampbell
Combined 83 19–131
Takedowns
0.6
1.7
PeekCampbell
Combined 2.6 0.0–5.6
Fight length
Expected 2.4 of 3 rounds 68% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Peek

    Trevor Peek lands 1.7 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Finish rate favours Campbell

    Kurtis Campbell finishes 56% more of their wins

  • 03 KO rate favours Campbell

    Kurtis Campbell finishes by KO 56% more often

  • 04 Strikes absorbed favours Campbell

    Kurtis Campbell eats 0.4 fewer strikes per minute

  • 05 KO durability favours Peek

    Trevor Peek has been KO'd 100% less often

  • 06 Takedown defence favours Peek

    Trevor Peek stuffs 53% more incoming takedowns

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Modestas Bukauskas
Modestas Bukauskas
19-7-0 Kickboxer Switch Stance 1 win
29% | 71%
Light Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 6 Sep · 2:00 AM AEST
Oumar Sy
Oumar Sy
France 12-2-0 MMA Orthodox 1 loss
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Oumar Sy
71.0 %
050100
CI · 41 – 98 · σ 0.065 · High
Why this pick
  • Oumar Sy eats 2.0 fewer strikes per minute
  • Oumar Sy lands 0.3 more sig strikes per minute
  • Oumar Sy hits 0.15 more takedowns per minute
  • the case against Modestas Bukauskas rides a 1-fight longer win streak
  • Modestas Bukauskas has a 7-fight UFC experience edge (12 vs 5)
Method Breakdown
Bukauskas Sy
KO/TKO 10.5
27.3
Submission 5.1
5.9
Decision 13.4
37.8
Finish Distribution · By Round
26
R1
16
R2
7
R3
51
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Bukauskas Sy
Str/min 3.1
3.4
Sig Acc 43%
48%
Str Def 50%
67%
TD/min 0.02
0.16
Finish 58%
60%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
18
36
BukauskasSy
Combined 51 17–112
Takedowns
0.0
1.0
BukauskasSy
Combined 1.4 0.0–4.7
Fight length
Expected 2.1 of 3 rounds 51% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Sy

    Oumar Sy eats 2.0 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Bukauskas

    Modestas Bukauskas rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 03 KO rate favours Bukauskas

    Modestas Bukauskas finishes by KO 30% more often

  • 04 Striking volume favours Sy

    Oumar Sy lands 0.3 more sig strikes per minute

  • 05 Takedown volume favours Sy

    Oumar Sy hits 0.15 more takedowns per minute

  • 06 Striking defence favours Sy

    Oumar Sy avoids 16% more incoming strikes

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Nathaniel Wood
Nathaniel Wood
England 23-6-0 MMA Orthodox 4-fight win streak
25% | 75%
Featherweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 6 Sep · 2:00 AM AEST
MS
Mairon Santos
4-0-0 Orthodox 4-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Mairon Santos
75.0 %
050100
CI · 45 – 98 · σ 0.049 · High
Why this pick
  • Mairon Santos eats 2.0 fewer strikes per minute
  • Mairon Santos finishes by KO 40% more often
  • Mairon Santos finishes 18% more of their wins
  • the case against Nathaniel Wood lands 2.5 more sig strikes per minute
  • Nathaniel Wood out-volumes opponents at 5.6 sig/min vs Mairon Santos's 3.1
Method Breakdown
Wood Santos
KO/TKO 9.7
16.9
Submission 3.3
5.6
Decision 12.1
52.5
Finish Distribution · By Round
11
R1
15
R2
10
R3
65
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Wood Santos
Str/min 5.6
3.1
Sig Acc 51%
45%
Str Def 54%
66%
TD/min 0.09
0.00
Finish 29%
47%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
47
42
WoodSantos
Combined 93 22–157
Takedowns
0.3
0.0
WoodSantos
Combined 1.4 0.0–4.0
Fight length
Expected 2.5 of 3 rounds 65% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Santos

    Mairon Santos eats 2.0 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Wood

    Nathaniel Wood lands 2.5 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 KO rate favours Santos

    Mairon Santos finishes by KO 40% more often

  • 04 Finish rate favours Santos

    Mairon Santos finishes 18% more of their wins

  • 05 Submission rate favours Wood

    Nathaniel Wood taps opponents 21% more often

  • 06 Takedown volume favours Wood

    Nathaniel Wood hits 0.09 more takedowns per minute

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Nora Cornolle
Nora Cornolle
France 9-4-0 Muay Thai Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
49% | 51%
Women's Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 6 Sep · 2:00 AM AEST
Klaudia Sygula
Klaudia Sygula
Poland 8-2-0 MMA Orthodox 2-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Klaudia Sygula
51.0 %
050100
CI · 21 – 81 · σ 0.073 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Klaudia Sygula lands 3.7 more sig strikes per minute
  • Klaudia Sygula rides a 2-fight longer win streak
  • Klaudia Sygula finishes by KO 13% more often
  • the case against Nora Cornolle eats 3.5 fewer strikes per minute
  • Klaudia Sygula out-volumes opponents at 6.4 sig/min vs Nora Cornolle's 2.7
Method Breakdown
Cornolle Sygula
KO/TKO 12.9
11.4
Submission 8.2
8.6
Decision 27.9
31.0
Finish Distribution · By Round
21
R1
12
R2
8
R3
59
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Cornolle Sygula
Str/min 2.7
6.4
Sig Acc 55%
42%
Str Def 56%
56%
TD/min 0.01
0.02
Finish 50%
29%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
42
37
CornolleSygula
Combined 94 19–138
Takedowns
0.3
0.1
CornolleSygula
Combined 0.9 0.0–3.9
Fight length
Expected 2.3 of 3 rounds 59% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Cornolle

    Nora Cornolle eats 3.5 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Sygula

    Klaudia Sygula lands 3.7 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Win streak favours Sygula

    Klaudia Sygula rides a 2-fight longer win streak

  • 04 Finish rate favours Cornolle

    Nora Cornolle finishes 21% more of their wins

  • 05 Submission rate favours Cornolle

    Nora Cornolle taps opponents 17% more often

  • 06 KO rate favours Sygula

    Klaudia Sygula finishes by KO 13% more often

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LD
Luis Felipe Dias
1-0-0 nan 1 win
76% | 24%
Middleweight 3 rds
MD
Matthieu Duclos
Orthodox
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Luis Felipe Dias
76.0 %
050100
CI · 46 – 98 · σ 0.058 · High
Why this pick
  • Luis Felipe Dias rides a 1-fight longer win streak
  • Luis Felipe Dias out-volumes opponents at 5.7 sig/min vs Matthieu Duclos's 0.0
Method Breakdown
Dias Duclos
KO/TKO 54.3
3.6
Submission 7.8
7.8
Decision 13.9
12.5
Finish Distribution · By Round
42
R1
21
R2
10
R3
26
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Dias Duclos
Str/min 5.7
0.0
Sig Acc 52%
0%
Str Def 60%
0%
TD/min 0.00
0.00
Finish 100%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
34
18
DiasDuclos
Combined 56 15–128
Takedowns
0.1
0.0
DiasDuclos
Combined 1.8 0.0–4.6
Fight length
Expected 1.6 of 3 rounds 26% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Dias

    Luis Felipe Dias rides a 1-fight longer win streak

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Yair Rodriguez
Rodriguez
Main Event
52%
Model Leans Rodriguez
2026-09-12
Jean Silva
Silva
Noche UFC: Rodriguez vs. Silva
2026
12
SEP
UPCOMING CARD

Noche UFC: Rodriguez vs. Silva

Desert Diamond Arena, Glendale, USA
10
Bouts
1
Value Bouts
Yair Rodriguez
Yair Rodriguez
Mexico 21-5-0 Freestyle Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
SB 3.60
52% | 48%
Featherweight 5 rds
⏱ Sun 13 Sep · 9:45 AM AEST
Jean Silva
Jean Silva
Brazil 17-3-0 Striker Orthodox
SB 1.28
Breakdown ▼
1 value bet on SportsBet
Model Favourite
Yair Rodriguez
51.6 %
050100
CI · 22 – 82 · σ 0.061 · High
Why this pick
  • the case against Jean Silva comes in on a 2-fight cleaner skid
  • layoff Rodriguez hasn't fought since Feb 2024 — ring rust is hard to price, so the model widens its uncertainty here
  • Yair Rodriguez out-volumes opponents at 4.6 sig/min vs Jean Silva's 0.0
Method Breakdown
Rodriguez Silva
KO/TKO 15.4
12.5
Submission 16.9
11.6
Decision 19.3
24.4
Finish Distribution · By Round
28
R1
11
R2
11
R3
7
R4
3
R5
44
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Rodriguez Silva
Str/min 4.6
0.0
Sig Acc 46%
0%
Str Def 52%
0%
TD/min 0.05
0.00
Finish 53%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
41
29
RodriguezSilva
Combined 90 14–210
Takedowns
0.1
0.9
RodriguezSilva
Combined 1.4 0.0–4.7
Fight length
Expected 3.0 of 5 rounds 40% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Loss streak favours Silva

    Jean Silva comes in on a 2-fight cleaner skid

Value Bets · SportsBet 1 flagged · 2 markets analysed
  • Yair Rodriguez wins
    Strong edge
    Model 52%
    Bookies 28%
    EV / $100 +$86
    Stake 8.2%
    3.60
    $82 returns $295
    +$213 profit
Brandon Moreno
Brandon Moreno
Mexico 23-10-2 Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
54% | 46%
Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 13 Sep · 7:00 AM AEST
Joseph Morales
Joseph Morales
United States 15-2-0 Freestyle Switch Stance 2-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Brandon Moreno
53.8 %
050100
CI · 24 – 84 · σ 0.069 · High
Why this pick
  • Brandon Moreno lands 1.8 more sig strikes per minute
  • Brandon Moreno stuffs 39% more incoming takedowns
  • the case against Joseph Morales eats 1.6 fewer strikes per minute
  • Brandon Moreno has a 15-fight UFC experience edge (20 vs 5)
Method Breakdown
Moreno Morales
KO/TKO 13.2
0.1
Submission 11.3
14.9
Decision 29.3
31.1
Finish Distribution · By Round
20
R1
12
R2
8
R3
60
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Moreno Morales
Str/min 3.8
2.0
Sig Acc 44%
41%
Str Def 60%
58%
TD/min 0.09
0.08
Finish 35%
80%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
37
31
MorenoMorales
Combined 74 20–126
Takedowns
0.3
0.5
MorenoMorales
Combined 1.7 0.0–4.5
Fight length
Expected 2.3 of 3 rounds 61% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Morales

    Joseph Morales eats 1.6 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Moreno

    Brandon Moreno lands 1.8 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Win streak favours Morales

    Joseph Morales rides a 2-fight longer win streak

  • 04 Finish rate favours Morales

    Joseph Morales finishes 45% more of their wins

  • 05 Submission rate favours Morales

    Joseph Morales taps opponents 45% more often

  • 06 Takedown defence favours Moreno

    Brandon Moreno stuffs 39% more incoming takedowns

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Alexa Grasso
Alexa Grasso
Mexico 17-5-1 MMA Orthodox 1 win
40% | 60%
Women's Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 13 Sep · 7:00 AM AEST
Manon Fiorot
Manon Fiorot
France 13-2-0 Karate Orthodox 1 win
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Manon Fiorot
60.0 %
050100
CI · 30 – 90 · σ 0.058 · High
Why this pick
  • Manon Fiorot lands 1.5 more sig strikes per minute
  • Manon Fiorot finishes by KO 27% more often
  • Manon Fiorot stuffs 33% more incoming takedowns
  • the case against Alexa Grasso taps opponents 13% more often
  • Manon Fiorot out-volumes opponents at 5.7 sig/min vs Alexa Grasso's 4.1
Method Breakdown
Grasso Fiorot
KO/TKO 9.2
13.9
Submission 1.6
3.0
Decision 29.2
43.1
Finish Distribution · By Round
13
R1
9
R2
6
R3
72
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Grasso Fiorot
Str/min 4.1
5.7
Sig Acc 41%
42%
Str Def 59%
67%
TD/min 0.03
0.07
Finish 27%
33%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
64
64
GrassoFiorot
Combined 146 22–195
Takedowns
0.1
0.5
GrassoFiorot
Combined 1.0 0.0–4.0
Fight length
Expected 2.5 of 3 rounds 72% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Fiorot

    Manon Fiorot lands 1.5 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 KO rate favours Fiorot

    Manon Fiorot finishes by KO 27% more often

  • 03 Takedown defence favours Fiorot

    Manon Fiorot stuffs 33% more incoming takedowns

  • 04 Strikes absorbed favours Fiorot

    Manon Fiorot eats 0.1 fewer strikes per minute

  • 05 Submission rate favours Grasso

    Alexa Grasso taps opponents 13% more often

  • 06 Finish rate favours Fiorot

    Manon Fiorot finishes 7% more of their wins

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Curtis Blaydes
Curtis Blaydes
United States 19-6-0 MMA Orthodox 1 loss
33% | 67%
Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 13 Sep · 7:00 AM AEST
Waldo Cortes Acosta
Waldo Cortes Acosta
Dominican Republic 17-3-0 Striker Orthodox 1 loss
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Waldo Cortes Acosta
66.8 %
050100
CI · 37 – 97 · σ 0.051 · High
Why this pick
  • Waldo Cortes Acosta lands 1.0 more sig strikes per minute
  • Waldo Cortes Acosta stuffs 39% more incoming takedowns
  • the case against Curtis Blaydes eats 0.9 fewer strikes per minute
  • Waldo Cortes Acosta has never been finished in 13 fights
Method Breakdown
Blaydes Acosta
KO/TKO 9.8
32.3
Submission 1.7
2.8
Decision 21.8
31.7
Finish Distribution · By Round
23
R1
14
R2
6
R3
53
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Blaydes Acosta
Str/min 4.2
5.2
Sig Acc 52%
49%
Str Def 54%
55%
TD/min 0.34
0.03
Finish 62%
38%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
53
53
BlaydesAcosta
Combined 109 21–192
Takedowns
0.8
0.0
BlaydesAcosta
Combined 0.7 0.0–5.8
Fight length
Expected 2.2 of 3 rounds 55% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Blaydes

    Curtis Blaydes eats 0.9 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Acosta

    Waldo Cortes Acosta lands 1.0 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Takedown volume favours Blaydes

    Curtis Blaydes hits 0.31 more takedowns per minute

  • 04 Finish rate favours Blaydes

    Curtis Blaydes finishes 23% more of their wins

  • 05 KO rate favours Blaydes

    Curtis Blaydes finishes by KO 23% more often

  • 06 Takedown defence favours Acosta

    Waldo Cortes Acosta stuffs 39% more incoming takedowns

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Dan Ige
Dan Ige
United States 19-10-0 Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 1 loss
17% | 83%
Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 13 Sep · 7:00 AM AEST
David Martinez
David Martinez
Mexico 14-1-0 Orthodox 3-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
David Martinez
82.7 %
050100
CI · 53 – 98 · σ 0.069 · High
Why this pick
  • David Martinez rides a 3-fight longer win streak
  • David Martinez eats 0.8 fewer strikes per minute
  • David Martinez lands 0.5 more sig strikes per minute
  • the case against Dan Ige finishes 6% more of their wins
  • David Martinez rides a 3-fight win streak (Dan Ige: 0)
Method Breakdown
Ige Martinez
KO/TKO 3.0
22.6
Submission 3.9
3.6
Decision 10.3
56.5
Finish Distribution · By Round
17
R1
10
R2
7
R3
67
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Ige Martinez
Str/min 3.6
4.1
Sig Acc 46%
40%
Str Def 56%
70%
TD/min 0.05
0.05
Finish 35%
29%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
47
56
IgeMartinez
Combined 99 22–151
Takedowns
0.1
0.2
IgeMartinez
Combined 1.1 0.0–3.9
Fight length
Expected 2.4 of 3 rounds 67% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Martinez

    David Martinez rides a 3-fight longer win streak

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Martinez

    David Martinez eats 0.8 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 Striking volume favours Martinez

    David Martinez lands 0.5 more sig strikes per minute

  • 04 Takedown defence favours Martinez

    David Martinez stuffs 42% more incoming takedowns

  • 05 Striking defence favours Martinez

    David Martinez avoids 14% more incoming strikes

  • 06 Finish rate favours Ige

    Dan Ige finishes 6% more of their wins

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Tim Elliott
Tim Elliott
United States 22-14-1 Freestyle Southpaw 1 loss
26% | 74%
Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 13 Sep · 4:00 AM AEST
Edgar Chairez
Edgar Chairez
Mexico 13-6-0 Freestyle Orthodox 3-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Edgar Chairez
73.9 %
050100
CI · 44 – 98 · σ 0.050 · High
Why this pick
  • Edgar Chairez rides a 3-fight longer win streak
  • Edgar Chairez taps opponents 29% more often
  • Edgar Chairez lands 0.3 more sig strikes per minute
  • the case against Tim Elliott eats 1.6 fewer strikes per minute
  • Edgar Chairez rides a 3-fight win streak (Tim Elliott: 0)
Method Breakdown
Elliott Chairez
KO/TKO 0.1
5.3
Submission 2.9
26.0
Decision 23.1
42.7
Finish Distribution · By Round
17
R1
10
R2
7
R3
66
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Elliott Chairez
Str/min 3.5
3.9
Sig Acc 43%
48%
Str Def 56%
45%
TD/min 0.24
0.00
Finish 36%
43%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
40
40
ElliottChairez
Combined 86 21–162
Takedowns
1.4
0.0
ElliottChairez
Combined 2.4 0.0–5.7
Fight length
Expected 2.4 of 3 rounds 66% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Elliott

    Tim Elliott eats 1.6 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Chairez

    Edgar Chairez rides a 3-fight longer win streak

  • 03 Takedown volume favours Elliott

    Tim Elliott hits 0.24 more takedowns per minute

  • 04 Submission rate favours Chairez

    Edgar Chairez taps opponents 29% more often

  • 05 Striking volume favours Chairez

    Edgar Chairez lands 0.3 more sig strikes per minute

  • 06 Takedown defence favours Elliott

    Tim Elliott stuffs 13% more incoming takedowns

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Muslim Salikhov
Muslim Salikhov
Russia 22-6-0 Orthodox 1 loss
38% | 62%
Welterweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 13 Sep · 4:00 AM AEST
Ignacio Bahamondes
Ignacio Bahamondes
Chile 17-7-0 Freestyle Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Ignacio Bahamondes
62.1 %
050100
CI · 32 – 92 · σ 0.087 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Ignacio Bahamondes lands 2.4 more sig strikes per minute
  • Ignacio Bahamondes taps opponents 20% more often
  • the case against Muslim Salikhov eats 1.2 fewer strikes per minute
  • Ignacio Bahamondes out-volumes opponents at 5.8 sig/min vs Muslim Salikhov's 3.4
Method Breakdown
Salikhov Bahamondes
KO/TKO 9.5
37.9
Submission 1.6
3.4
Decision 26.9
20.8
Finish Distribution · By Round
31
R1
15
R2
7
R3
48
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Salikhov Bahamondes
Str/min 3.4
5.8
Sig Acc 50%
46%
Str Def 62%
55%
TD/min 0.07
0.00
Finish 64%
50%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
41
51
SalikhovBahamondes
Combined 89 18–152
Takedowns
0.3
0.0
SalikhovBahamondes
Combined 0.7 0.0–3.9
Fight length
Expected 2.0 of 3 rounds 48% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Bahamondes

    Ignacio Bahamondes lands 2.4 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Salikhov

    Muslim Salikhov eats 1.2 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 KO rate favours Salikhov

    Muslim Salikhov finishes by KO 27% more often

  • 04 Submission rate favours Bahamondes

    Ignacio Bahamondes taps opponents 20% more often

  • 05 Finish rate favours Salikhov

    Muslim Salikhov finishes 14% more of their wins

  • 06 Takedown volume favours Salikhov

    Muslim Salikhov hits 0.07 more takedowns per minute

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Kelvin Gastelum
Kelvin Gastelum
United States 21-11-0 Boxing Southpaw 1 loss
16% | 84%
Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 13 Sep · 4:00 AM AEST
Yousri Belgaroui
Yousri Belgaroui
Netherlands 9-3-0 Striker Orthodox 2-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Yousri Belgaroui
84.4 %
050100
CI · 54 – 98 · σ 0.110 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Yousri Belgaroui lands 4.3 more sig strikes per minute
  • Yousri Belgaroui eats 1.9 fewer strikes per minute
  • Yousri Belgaroui finishes by KO 88% more often
  • Yousri Belgaroui out-volumes opponents at 8.0 sig/min vs Kelvin Gastelum's 3.7
Method Breakdown
Gastelum Belgaroui
KO/TKO 5.0
48.4
Submission 4.3
4.5
Decision 6.4
31.5
Finish Distribution · By Round
31
R1
18
R2
13
R3
38
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Gastelum Belgaroui
Str/min 3.7
8.0
Sig Acc 42%
67%
Str Def 57%
71%
TD/min 0.07
0.04
Finish 35%
100%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
32
52
GastelumBelgaroui
Combined 90 21–153
Takedowns
0.8
0.0
GastelumBelgaroui
Combined 0.7 0.0–4.4
Fight length
Expected 1.9 of 3 rounds 38% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Belgaroui

    Yousri Belgaroui lands 4.3 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Belgaroui

    Yousri Belgaroui eats 1.9 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 KO rate favours Belgaroui

    Yousri Belgaroui finishes by KO 88% more often

  • 04 Finish rate favours Belgaroui

    Yousri Belgaroui finishes 65% more of their wins

  • 05 Win streak favours Belgaroui

    Yousri Belgaroui rides a 2-fight longer win streak

  • 06 Striking accuracy favours Belgaroui

    Yousri Belgaroui is 24% more accurate on the feet

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JJ Aldrich
JJ Aldrich
United States 15-7-0 Striker Southpaw 2-fight win streak
36% | 64%
Women's Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 13 Sep · 4:00 AM AEST
RT
Regina Tarin
1-0-0 nan 1 win
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Regina Tarin
63.7 %
050100
CI · 34 – 94 · σ 0.069 · High
Why this pick
  • Regina Tarin lands 3.7 more sig strikes per minute
  • the case against JJ Aldrich eats 2.7 fewer strikes per minute
  • Regina Tarin out-volumes opponents at 7.6 sig/min vs JJ Aldrich's 3.9
Method Breakdown
Aldrich Tarin
KO/TKO 0.1
10.0
Submission 4.8
5.3
Decision 31.4
48.4
Finish Distribution · By Round
10
R1
6
R2
4
R3
80
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Aldrich Tarin
Str/min 3.9
7.6
Sig Acc 46%
48%
Str Def 62%
58%
TD/min 0.05
0.07
Finish 18%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
53
60
AldrichTarin
Combined 132 22–192
Takedowns
0.1
0.4
AldrichTarin
Combined 1.4 0.0–4.1
Fight length
Expected 2.6 of 3 rounds 80% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Aldrich

    JJ Aldrich eats 2.7 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Tarin

    Regina Tarin lands 3.7 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Win streak favours Aldrich

    JJ Aldrich rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 04 Finish rate favours Aldrich

    JJ Aldrich finishes 18% more of their wins

  • 05 KO rate favours Aldrich

    JJ Aldrich finishes by KO 12% more often

  • 06 Takedown defence favours Aldrich

    JJ Aldrich stuffs 18% more incoming takedowns

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Tommy McMillen
Tommy McMillen
United States 10-0-0 MMA Orthodox 2-fight win streak
44% | 56%
Featherweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 13 Sep · 7:00 AM AEST
Marwan Rahiki
Marwan Rahiki
Morocco 9-0-0 Striker nan 2-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Marwan Rahiki
55.6 %
050100
CI · 26 – 86 · σ 0.103 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Marwan Rahiki finishes 18% more of their wins
  • Marwan Rahiki finishes by KO 18% more often
  • Marwan Rahiki is 14% more accurate on the feet
  • the case against Tommy McMillen lands 6.6 more sig strikes per minute
  • Tommy McMillen out-volumes opponents at 15.3 sig/min vs Marwan Rahiki's 8.8
Method Breakdown
McMillen Rahiki
KO/TKO 15.9
33.0
Submission 7.3
7.3
Decision 21.2
15.3
Finish Distribution · By Round
39
R1
18
R2
6
R3
37
DEC
Key Stats career avg
McMillen Rahiki
Str/min 15.3
8.8
Sig Acc 41%
55%
Str Def 63%
59%
TD/min 0.00
0.00
Finish 82%
100%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
29
36
McMillenRahiki
Combined 69 15–141
Takedowns
0.0
0.0
McMillenRahiki
Combined 0.8 0.0–4.0
Fight length
Expected 1.7 of 3 rounds 37% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours McMillen

    Tommy McMillen lands 6.6 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours McMillen

    Tommy McMillen eats 1.4 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 Finish rate favours Rahiki

    Marwan Rahiki finishes 18% more of their wins

  • 04 KO rate favours Rahiki

    Marwan Rahiki finishes by KO 18% more often

  • 05 Striking accuracy favours Rahiki

    Marwan Rahiki is 14% more accurate on the feet

  • 06 Striking defence favours McMillen

    Tommy McMillen avoids 5% more incoming strikes

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Alexandre Pantoja
Pantoja
Title · Main Event
63%
Model Leans Van
2026-09-19
Joshua Van
Van
UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2
2026
19
SEP
UPCOMING CARD

UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2

crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, USA
13
Bouts
2
Value Bouts
Alexandre Pantoja
C Alexandre Pantoja
Brazil 30-6-0 MMA Orthodox 1 loss
SB 1.95
37% | 63%
Flyweight 5 rds
⏱ Sun 20 Sep · 1:00 PM AEST
Joshua Van
Joshua Van
Myanmar 17-2-0 Freestyle Orthodox 7-fight win streak
SB 1.85
Breakdown ▼
1 value bet on SportsBet
Model Favourite
Joshua Van
62.6 %
050100
CI · 33 – 93 · σ 0.087 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Joshua Van rides a 7-fight longer win streak
  • Joshua Van lands 4.1 more sig strikes per minute
  • Joshua Van finishes by KO 29% more often
  • the case against Alexandre Pantoja eats 1.9 fewer strikes per minute
  • Joshua Van rides a 7-fight win streak (Alexandre Pantoja: 0)
Method Breakdown
Pantoja Van
KO/TKO 5.6
30.6
Submission 15.6
4.0
Decision 16.3
27.9
Finish Distribution · By Round
14
R1
18
R2
12
R3
8
R4
4
R5
44
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Pantoja Van
Str/min 4.4
8.4
Sig Acc 50%
57%
Str Def 50%
58%
TD/min 0.19
0.05
Finish 50%
45%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
60
70
PantojaVan
Combined 139 21–268
Takedowns
1.7
0.0
PantojaVan
Combined 2.0 0.0–5.4
Fight length
Expected 3.3 of 5 rounds 44% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Van

    Joshua Van rides a 7-fight longer win streak

  • 02 Striking volume favours Van

    Joshua Van lands 4.1 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Strikes absorbed favours Pantoja

    Alexandre Pantoja eats 1.9 fewer strikes per minute

  • 04 Submission rate favours Pantoja

    Alexandre Pantoja taps opponents 33% more often

  • 05 KO rate favours Van

    Joshua Van finishes by KO 29% more often

  • 06 Takedown volume favours Pantoja

    Alexandre Pantoja hits 0.13 more takedowns per minute

Value Bets · SportsBet 1 flagged · 2 markets analysed
  • Joshua Van wins
    Strong edge
    Model 63%
    Bookies 54%
    EV / $100 +$16
    Stake 4.6%
    1.85
    $46 returns $85
    +$39 profit
Arman Tsarukyan
Arman Tsarukyan
Georgia 23-3-0 Kickboxer Orthodox 5-fight win streak
SB 1.25
79% | 21%
Lightweight 5 rds
⏱ Sun 20 Sep · 12:30 PM AEST
Mauricio Ruffy
Mauricio Ruffy
Brazil 13-2-0 Striker Orthodox 2-fight win streak
SB 3.85
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Arman Tsarukyan
78.8 %
050100
CI · 49 – 98 · σ 0.090 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Arman Tsarukyan eats 1.9 fewer strikes per minute
  • Arman Tsarukyan rides a 3-fight longer win streak
  • Arman Tsarukyan hits 0.22 more takedowns per minute
  • the case against Mauricio Ruffy finishes 42% more of their wins
  • Arman Tsarukyan rides a 5-fight win streak (Mauricio Ruffy: 2)
Method Breakdown
Tsarukyan Ruffy
KO/TKO 25.3
12.9
Submission 12.2
0.1
Decision 41.4
8.2
Finish Distribution · By Round
11
R1
17
R2
11
R3
7
R4
3
R5
50
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Tsarukyan Ruffy
Str/min 3.9
4.0
Sig Acc 50%
57%
Str Def 55%
60%
TD/min 0.22
0.00
Finish 42%
83%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
52
35
TsarukyanRuffy
Combined 88 23–154
Takedowns
2.1
0.0
TsarukyanRuffy
Combined 2.1 0.0–5.7
Fight length
Expected 3.5 of 5 rounds 50% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Tsarukyan

    Arman Tsarukyan eats 1.9 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Tsarukyan

    Arman Tsarukyan rides a 3-fight longer win streak

  • 03 Finish rate favours Ruffy

    Mauricio Ruffy finishes 42% more of their wins

  • 04 KO rate favours Ruffy

    Mauricio Ruffy finishes by KO 33% more often

  • 05 Takedown volume favours Tsarukyan

    Arman Tsarukyan hits 0.22 more takedowns per minute

  • 06 Control time favours Tsarukyan

    Arman Tsarukyan controls 38% more cage time

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed
No markets passed the value gate. 2 markets analysed.
Patricio Pitbull
Patricio Pitbull
0-1-0 Orthodox 1 loss
8% | 92%
Featherweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 20 Sep · 11:00 AM AEST
Dooho Choi
Dooho Choi
South Korea 16-4-1 Striker Orthodox 3-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Dooho Choi
91.5 %
050100
CI · 62 – 98 · σ 0.069 · High
Why this pick
  • Dooho Choi eats 2.3 fewer strikes per minute
  • Dooho Choi rides a 3-fight longer win streak
  • Dooho Choi lands 1.7 more sig strikes per minute
  • Dooho Choi rides a 3-fight win streak (Patricio Pitbull: 0)
Method Breakdown
Pitbull Choi
KO/TKO 0.1
25.4
Submission 1.0
2.5
Decision 7.4
63.6
Finish Distribution · By Round
12
R1
12
R2
5
R3
71
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Pitbull Choi
Str/min 3.3
5.0
Sig Acc 56%
56%
Str Def 45%
57%
TD/min 0.00
0.08
Finish 0%
80%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
36
47
PitbullChoi
Combined 93 18–151
Takedowns
0.2
0.6
PitbullChoi
Combined 1.4 0.0–4.4
Fight length
Expected 2.5 of 3 rounds 71% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Choi

    Dooho Choi eats 2.3 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Choi

    Dooho Choi rides a 3-fight longer win streak

  • 03 Striking volume favours Choi

    Dooho Choi lands 1.7 more sig strikes per minute

  • 04 Finish rate favours Choi

    Dooho Choi finishes 80% more of their wins

  • 05 KO rate favours Choi

    Dooho Choi finishes by KO 80% more often

  • 06 Takedown volume favours Choi

    Dooho Choi hits 0.08 more takedowns per minute

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Renato Moicano
Renato Moicano
Brazil 21-7-1 Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 1 win
62% | 38%
Lightweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 20 Sep · 11:00 AM AEST
Brian Ortega
Brian Ortega
United States 16-5-0 Jiu-Jitsu Switch Stance 2-fight loss streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Renato Moicano
61.5 %
050100
CI · 32 – 92 · σ 0.068 · High
Why this pick
  • Renato Moicano eats 2.8 fewer strikes per minute
  • Renato Moicano rides a 1-fight longer win streak
  • Renato Moicano lands 0.3 more sig strikes per minute
  • the case against Brian Ortega finishes by KO 11% more often
  • Renato Moicano has never been finished in 20 fights
Method Breakdown
Moicano Ortega
KO/TKO 12.7
7.8
Submission 11.3
11.6
Decision 37.5
19.1
Finish Distribution · By Round
23
R1
17
R2
4
R3
57
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Moicano Ortega
Str/min 4.1
3.8
Sig Acc 49%
37%
Str Def 60%
49%
TD/min 0.11
0.06
Finish 70%
64%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
47
34
MoicanoOrtega
Combined 76 16–139
Takedowns
1.0
0.2
MoicanoOrtega
Combined 1.5 0.0–4.4
Fight length
Expected 2.2 of 3 rounds 57% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Moicano

    Renato Moicano eats 2.8 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Moicano

    Renato Moicano rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 03 Striking volume favours Moicano

    Renato Moicano lands 0.3 more sig strikes per minute

  • 04 Loss streak favours Moicano

    Renato Moicano comes in on a 2-fight cleaner skid

  • 05 KO rate favours Ortega

    Brian Ortega finishes by KO 11% more often

  • 06 Striking accuracy favours Moicano

    Renato Moicano is 12% more accurate on the feet

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Alonzo Menifield
Alonzo Menifield
United States 17-6-1 Freestyle Orthodox 1 win
29% | 71%
Light Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 20 Sep · 11:00 AM AEST
Iwo Baraniewski
Iwo Baraniewski
Poland 8-0-0 Judo Orthodox 3-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Iwo Baraniewski
70.9 %
050100
CI · 41 – 98 · σ 0.049 · High
Why this pick
  • Iwo Baraniewski lands 7.4 more sig strikes per minute
  • Iwo Baraniewski rides a 2-fight longer win streak
  • Iwo Baraniewski finishes by KO 50% more often
  • the case against Alonzo Menifield eats 4.9 fewer strikes per minute
  • Iwo Baraniewski out-volumes opponents at 11.2 sig/min vs Alonzo Menifield's 3.8
Method Breakdown
Menifield Baraniewski
KO/TKO 10.1
49.0
Submission 6.1
6.1
Decision 12.9
15.8
Finish Distribution · By Round
44
R1
20
R2
6
R3
29
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Menifield Baraniewski
Str/min 3.8
11.2
Sig Acc 53%
57%
Str Def 51%
54%
TD/min 0.03
0.00
Finish 61%
100%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
31
39
MenifieldBaraniewski
Combined 79 17–156
Takedowns
0.1
0.0
MenifieldBaraniewski
Combined 0.6 0.0–4.2
Fight length
Expected 1.6 of 3 rounds 29% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Menifield

    Alonzo Menifield eats 4.9 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Baraniewski

    Iwo Baraniewski lands 7.4 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Win streak favours Baraniewski

    Iwo Baraniewski rides a 2-fight longer win streak

  • 04 KO rate favours Baraniewski

    Iwo Baraniewski finishes by KO 50% more often

  • 05 Finish rate favours Baraniewski

    Iwo Baraniewski finishes 39% more of their wins

  • 06 Takedown defence favours Baraniewski

    Iwo Baraniewski stuffs 20% more incoming takedowns

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Gable Steveson
Gable Steveson
United States 3-0-0 Wrestler nan 1 win
SB 1.06
91% | 9%
Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 20 Sep · 11:30 AM AEST
Sean Sharaf
Sean Sharaf
United States 4-2-0 Freestyle Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
SB 8.50
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Gable Steveson
90.6 %
050100
CI · 61 – 98 · σ 0.055 · High
Why this pick
  • Gable Steveson eats 9.8 fewer strikes per minute
  • Gable Steveson lands 9.2 more sig strikes per minute
  • Gable Steveson rides a 1-fight longer win streak
  • Gable Steveson out-volumes opponents at 15.3 sig/min vs Sean Sharaf's 6.1
Method Breakdown
Steveson Sharaf
KO/TKO 78.5
0.2
Submission 1.5
8.8
Decision 10.7
0.2
Finish Distribution · By Round
48
R1
32
R2
9
R3
11
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Steveson Sharaf
Str/min 15.3
6.1
Sig Acc 68%
36%
Str Def 61%
43%
TD/min 0.00
0.05
Finish 94%
82%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
36
17
StevesonSharaf
Combined 74 14–140
Takedowns
0.0
0.0
StevesonSharaf
Combined 0.0 0.0–4.5
Fight length
Expected 1.3 of 3 rounds 11% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Steveson

    Gable Steveson eats 9.8 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Steveson

    Gable Steveson lands 9.2 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Win streak favours Steveson

    Gable Steveson rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 04 KO durability favours Steveson

    Gable Steveson has been KO'd 100% less often

  • 05 Striking accuracy favours Steveson

    Gable Steveson is 32% more accurate on the feet

  • 06 Durability favours Steveson

    Gable Steveson has been finished 100% less often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed
No markets passed the value gate. 2 markets analysed.
Marlon Vera
Marlon Vera
Ecuador 23-12-1 Grappler Switch Stance 4-fight loss streak
36% | 64%
Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 20 Sep · 9:00 AM AEST
Charles Jourdain
Charles Jourdain
Canada 18-8-1 Striker Switch Stance 3-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Charles Jourdain
63.9 %
050100
CI · 34 – 94 · σ 0.070 · High
Why this pick
  • Charles Jourdain eats 1.2 fewer strikes per minute
  • Charles Jourdain rides a 3-fight longer win streak
  • Charles Jourdain lands 1.2 more sig strikes per minute
  • the case against Marlon Vera stuffs 25% more incoming takedowns
  • Charles Jourdain rides a 3-fight win streak (Marlon Vera: 0)
Method Breakdown
Vera Jourdain
KO/TKO 10.2
20.1
Submission 9.3
9.4
Decision 16.7
34.3
Finish Distribution · By Round
24
R1
15
R2
10
R3
51
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Vera Jourdain
Str/min 4.2
5.4
Sig Acc 48%
49%
Str Def 50%
57%
TD/min 0.03
0.03
Finish 42%
47%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
56
59
VeraJourdain
Combined 116 18–194
Takedowns
0.5
0.1
VeraJourdain
Combined 1.1 0.0–4.0
Fight length
Expected 2.1 of 3 rounds 51% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Jourdain

    Charles Jourdain eats 1.2 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Jourdain

    Charles Jourdain rides a 3-fight longer win streak

  • 03 Striking volume favours Jourdain

    Charles Jourdain lands 1.2 more sig strikes per minute

  • 04 Loss streak favours Jourdain

    Charles Jourdain comes in on a 4-fight cleaner skid

  • 05 Takedown defence favours Vera

    Marlon Vera stuffs 25% more incoming takedowns

  • 06 KO rate favours Vera

    Marlon Vera finishes by KO 9% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Tai Tuivasa
Tai Tuivasa
Australia 15-10-0 Southpaw 7-fight loss streak
SB 4.90
27% | 73%
Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 20 Sep · 12:00 PM AEST
Robelis Despaigne
Robelis Despaigne
Cuba 5-2-0 Taekwondo Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
SB 1.17
Breakdown ▼
1 value bet on SportsBet
Model Favourite
Robelis Despaigne
72.9 %
050100
CI · 43 – 98 · σ 0.069 · High
Why this pick
  • Robelis Despaigne eats 2.1 fewer strikes per minute
  • Robelis Despaigne comes in on a 5-fight cleaner skid
  • Robelis Despaigne is 11% more accurate on the feet
  • the case against Tai Tuivasa lands 1.3 more sig strikes per minute
  • layoff Despaigne hasn't fought since Oct 2024 — ring rust is hard to price, so the model widens its uncertainty here
  • Tai Tuivasa has a 15-fight UFC experience edge (18 vs 3)
Method Breakdown
Tuivasa Despaigne
KO/TKO 14.8
37.5
Submission 1.2
5.3
Decision 11.0
30.1
Finish Distribution · By Round
31
R1
19
R2
9
R3
41
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Tuivasa Despaigne
Str/min 3.4
2.1
Sig Acc 49%
60%
Str Def 43%
47%
TD/min 0.00
0.00
Finish 72%
33%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
19
30
TuivasaDespaigne
Combined 54 16–119
Takedowns
0.1
0.0
TuivasaDespaigne
Combined 0.1 0.0–3.9
Fight length
Expected 1.9 of 3 rounds 41% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Despaigne

    Robelis Despaigne eats 2.1 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Tuivasa

    Tai Tuivasa lands 1.3 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Finish rate favours Tuivasa

    Tai Tuivasa finishes 39% more of their wins

  • 04 Loss streak favours Despaigne

    Robelis Despaigne comes in on a 5-fight cleaner skid

  • 05 KO rate favours Tuivasa

    Tai Tuivasa finishes by KO 22% more often

  • 06 Striking accuracy favours Despaigne

    Robelis Despaigne is 11% more accurate on the feet

Value Bets · SportsBet 1 flagged · 2 markets analysed
  • Tai Tuivasa wins
    Strong edge
    Model 27%
    Bookies 20%
    EV / $100 +$33
    Stake 2.1%
    4.90
    $21 returns $103
    +$82 profit
Edmen Shahbazyan
Edmen Shahbazyan
United States 16-5-0 MMA Orthodox 1 loss
79% | 21%
Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 20 Sep · 9:00 AM AEST
Brunno Ferreira
Brunno Ferreira
Brazil 15-3-0 Grappler Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Edmen Shahbazyan
79.4 %
050100
CI · 49 – 98 · σ 0.066 · High
Why this pick
  • Edmen Shahbazyan lands 0.8 more sig strikes per minute
  • Edmen Shahbazyan stuffs 19% more incoming takedowns
  • Edmen Shahbazyan finishes by KO 10% more often
  • the case against Brunno Ferreira eats 0.2 fewer strikes per minute
  • Edmen Shahbazyan KOs 60% of opponents — Brunno Ferreira has been KO'd in 20% of losses
Method Breakdown
Shahbazyan Ferreira
KO/TKO 55.1
9.2
Submission 6.2
3.8
Decision 18.1
7.6
Finish Distribution · By Round
46
R1
22
R2
7
R3
26
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Shahbazyan Ferreira
Str/min 3.9
3.1
Sig Acc 49%
48%
Str Def 50%
52%
TD/min 0.10
0.07
Finish 73%
80%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
33
20
ShahbazyanFerreira
Combined 48 15–111
Takedowns
0.3
0.1
ShahbazyanFerreira
Combined 0.7 0.0–4.2
Fight length
Expected 1.5 of 3 rounds 26% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Shahbazyan

    Edmen Shahbazyan lands 0.8 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Ferreira

    Brunno Ferreira eats 0.2 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 Submission rate favours Ferreira

    Brunno Ferreira taps opponents 13% more often

  • 04 Takedown defence favours Shahbazyan

    Edmen Shahbazyan stuffs 19% more incoming takedowns

  • 05 KO rate favours Shahbazyan

    Edmen Shahbazyan finishes by KO 10% more often

  • 06 Finish rate favours Ferreira

    Brunno Ferreira finishes 7% more of their wins

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Giga Chikadze
Giga Chikadze
Georgia 15-6-0 Karate Orthodox 3-fight loss streak
38% | 62%
Featherweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 20 Sep · 7:00 AM AEST
Joanderson Brito
Joanderson Brito
Brazil 18-5-1 Striker Orthodox 2-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Joanderson Brito
62.5 %
050100
CI · 32 – 92 · σ 0.083 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Joanderson Brito eats 1.1 fewer strikes per minute
  • Joanderson Brito rides a 2-fight longer win streak
  • Joanderson Brito finishes 27% more of their wins
  • the case against Giga Chikadze lands 1.7 more sig strikes per minute
  • Joanderson Brito has never been finished in 10 fights
Method Breakdown
Chikadze Brito
KO/TKO 16.0
15.5
Submission 1.5
15.2
Decision 20.0
31.7
Finish Distribution · By Round
24
R1
14
R2
10
R3
52
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Chikadze Brito
Str/min 3.8
2.2
Sig Acc 42%
49%
Str Def 61%
43%
TD/min 0.01
0.21
Finish 33%
60%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
44
35
ChikadzeBrito
Combined 85 19–130
Takedowns
0.0
1.3
ChikadzeBrito
Combined 2.4 0.0–5.4
Fight length
Expected 2.1 of 3 rounds 52% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Brito

    Joanderson Brito eats 1.1 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Chikadze

    Giga Chikadze lands 1.7 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Win streak favours Brito

    Joanderson Brito rides a 2-fight longer win streak

  • 04 Finish rate favours Brito

    Joanderson Brito finishes 27% more of their wins

  • 05 Submission rate favours Brito

    Joanderson Brito taps opponents 30% more often

  • 06 Takedown volume favours Brito

    Joanderson Brito hits 0.19 more takedowns per minute

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CO
Casey O'Neill
6-2-0 Orthodox 2-fight win streak
67% | 33%
Women's Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 20 Sep · 7:00 AM AEST
Eduarda Moura
Eduarda Moura
Brazil 12-2-0 Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 1 loss
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Casey O'Neill
66.9 %
050100
CI · 37 – 97 · σ 0.058 · High
Why this pick
  • Casey O'Neill lands 5.3 more sig strikes per minute
  • Casey O'Neill rides a 2-fight longer win streak
  • Casey O'Neill finishes 42% more of their wins
  • the case against Eduarda Moura eats 2.9 fewer strikes per minute
  • Casey O'Neill out-volumes opponents at 7.9 sig/min vs Eduarda Moura's 2.6
Method Breakdown
O'Neill Moura
KO/TKO 22.9
3.3
Submission 7.3
4.3
Decision 36.6
25.5
Finish Distribution · By Round
19
R1
11
R2
8
R3
62
DEC
Key Stats career avg
O'Neill Moura
Str/min 7.9
2.6
Sig Acc 52%
38%
Str Def 58%
59%
TD/min 0.09
0.24
Finish 62%
20%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
45
34
O'NeillMoura
Combined 88 21–172
Takedowns
0.4
1.7
O'NeillMoura
Combined 2.2 0.0–4.9
Fight length
Expected 2.3 of 3 rounds 62% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours O'Neill

    Casey O'Neill lands 5.3 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Moura

    Eduarda Moura eats 2.9 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 Win streak favours O'Neill

    Casey O'Neill rides a 2-fight longer win streak

  • 04 Finish rate favours O'Neill

    Casey O'Neill finishes 42% more of their wins

  • 05 KO rate favours O'Neill

    Casey O'Neill finishes by KO 18% more often

  • 06 Takedown volume favours Moura

    Eduarda Moura hits 0.14 more takedowns per minute

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Ozzy Diaz
Ozzy Diaz
United States 10-3-0 MMA Orthodox 1 loss
27% | 73%
Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 20 Sep · 7:00 AM AEST
Ryan Gandra
Ryan Gandra
Brazil 9-1-0 MMA Orthodox 2-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Ryan Gandra
73.1 %
050100
CI · 43 – 98 · σ 0.059 · High
Why this pick
  • Ryan Gandra eats 4.7 fewer strikes per minute
  • Ryan Gandra lands 4.6 more sig strikes per minute
  • Ryan Gandra rides a 2-fight longer win streak
  • Ryan Gandra out-volumes opponents at 10.2 sig/min vs Ozzy Diaz's 5.6
Method Breakdown
Diaz Gandra
KO/TKO 8.4
39.9
Submission 5.3
7.2
Decision 13.2
26.0
Finish Distribution · By Round
37
R1
18
R2
5
R3
39
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Diaz Gandra
Str/min 5.6
10.2
Sig Acc 45%
40%
Str Def 63%
62%
TD/min 0.00
0.00
Finish 59%
82%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
29
30
DiazGandra
Combined 67 14–139
Takedowns
0.0
0.0
DiazGandra
Combined 0.4 0.0–4.0
Fight length
Expected 1.8 of 3 rounds 39% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Gandra

    Ryan Gandra eats 4.7 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Gandra

    Ryan Gandra lands 4.6 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Win streak favours Gandra

    Ryan Gandra rides a 2-fight longer win streak

  • 04 Finish rate favours Gandra

    Ryan Gandra finishes 23% more of their wins

  • 05 KO rate favours Gandra

    Ryan Gandra finishes by KO 23% more often

  • 06 KO durability favours Gandra

    Ryan Gandra has been KO'd 67% less often

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MJ
Michael Aswell Jr.
1-3-0 Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
59% | 41%
Featherweight 3 rds
JY
JooSang Yoo
1-1-0 Orthodox 1 loss
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Michael Aswell Jr.
59.1 %
050100
CI · 29 – 89 · σ 0.080 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Michael Aswell Jr. lands 1.5 more sig strikes per minute
  • Michael Aswell Jr. has been KO'd 50% less often
  • Michael Aswell Jr. has been finished 50% less often
  • the case against JooSang Yoo eats 2.2 fewer strikes per minute
  • Michael Aswell Jr. out-volumes opponents at 6.7 sig/min vs JooSang Yoo's 5.2
Method Breakdown
Jr. Yoo
KO/TKO 32.8
3.4
Submission 1.9
2.5
Decision 24.4
35.0
Finish Distribution · By Round
25
R1
8
R2
8
R3
59
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Jr. Yoo
Str/min 6.7
5.2
Sig Acc 39%
48%
Str Def 52%
56%
TD/min 0.02
0.00
Finish 25%
82%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
55
54
Jr.Yoo
Combined 116 19–184
Takedowns
0.1
0.1
Jr.Yoo
Combined 1.0 0.0–4.0
Fight length
Expected 2.2 of 3 rounds 60% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Yoo

    JooSang Yoo eats 2.2 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Jr.

    Michael Aswell Jr. lands 1.5 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Finish rate favours Yoo

    JooSang Yoo finishes 57% more of their wins

  • 04 KO rate favours Yoo

    JooSang Yoo finishes by KO 57% more often

  • 05 KO durability favours Jr.

    Michael Aswell Jr. has been KO'd 50% less often

  • 06 Durability favours Jr.

    Michael Aswell Jr. has been finished 50% less often

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Raoni Barcelos
Barcelos
Main Event
61%
Model Leans Jr.
2026-09-26
Raul Rosas Jr.
Jr.
UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos
2026
26
SEP
UPCOMING CARD

UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos

Meta APEX, Las Vegas, USA
2
Bouts
Raoni Barcelos
Raoni Barcelos
Brazil 21-5-0 Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 5-fight win streak
39% | 61%
Bantamweight 5 rds
⏱ Sun 27 Sep · 8:00 AM AEST
Raul Rosas Jr.
Raul Rosas Jr.
United States 13-1-0 Freestyle Switch Stance 5-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Raul Rosas Jr.
60.7 %
050100
CI · 31 – 91 · σ 0.080 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Raul Rosas Jr. eats 2.9 fewer strikes per minute
  • Raul Rosas Jr. hits 0.28 more takedowns per minute
  • Raul Rosas Jr. taps opponents 15% more often
  • the case against Raoni Barcelos lands 3.3 more sig strikes per minute
  • Raoni Barcelos out-volumes opponents at 4.7 sig/min vs Raul Rosas Jr.'s 1.3
Method Breakdown
Barcelos Jr.
KO/TKO 13.6
6.5
Submission 3.4
15.0
Decision 22.3
39.2
Finish Distribution · By Round
13
R1
11
R2
7
R3
5
R4
2
R5
62
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Barcelos Jr.
Str/min 4.7
1.3
Sig Acc 52%
41%
Str Def 61%
55%
TD/min 0.17
0.45
Finish 33%
43%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
49
36
BarcelosJr.
Combined 69 17–144
Takedowns
0.4
1.6
BarcelosJr.
Combined 2.3 0.0–6.9
Fight length
Expected 3.8 of 5 rounds 62% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Jr.

    Raul Rosas Jr. eats 2.9 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Barcelos

    Raoni Barcelos lands 3.3 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Takedown volume favours Jr.

    Raul Rosas Jr. hits 0.28 more takedowns per minute

  • 04 Takedown defence favours Barcelos

    Raoni Barcelos stuffs 54% more incoming takedowns

  • 05 Submission rate favours Jr.

    Raul Rosas Jr. taps opponents 15% more often

  • 06 Finish rate favours Jr.

    Raul Rosas Jr. finishes 10% more of their wins

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TB
TBA
— | —
No model pick
3 rds ⏱ Sun 27 Sep · 5:00 AM AEST
OT
Opponent TBA
Breakdown ▼
⟁ No model pick — one fighter has no fight-record data in any source (typically a promotional debut), so the model can't price this bout.
Mike Malott
Malott
Main Event
56%
Model Leans Buckley
2026-10-17
Joaquin Buckley
Buckley
UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott
2026
17
OCT
UPCOMING CARD

UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott

Rogers Place, Edmonton, Canada
9
Bouts
Mike Malott
Mike Malott
United States 14-2-1 MMA Orthodox 4-fight win streak
44% | 56%
Welterweight 5 rds
⏱ Sun 18 Oct · 10:00 AM AEST
Joaquin Buckley
Joaquin Buckley
United States 21-8-0 Freestyle Southpaw 2-fight loss streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Joaquin Buckley
55.7 %
050100
CI · 26 – 86 · σ 0.069 · High
Why this pick
  • Joaquin Buckley finishes by KO 15% more often
  • the case against Mike Malott rides a 4-fight longer win streak
  • Mike Malott rides a 4-fight win streak (Joaquin Buckley: 0)
Method Breakdown
Malott Buckley
KO/TKO 10.9
34.6
Submission 9.3
2.0
Decision 24.1
19.1
Finish Distribution · By Round
25
R1
15
R2
7
R3
6
R4
3
R5
43
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Malott Buckley
Str/min 3.9
3.6
Sig Acc 52%
36%
Str Def 57%
59%
TD/min 0.10
0.10
Finish 75%
65%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
36
40
MalottBuckley
Combined 93 19–169
Takedowns
0.3
0.0
MalottBuckley
Combined 0.7 0.0–4.2
Fight length
Expected 3.1 of 5 rounds 43% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Malott

    Mike Malott rides a 4-fight longer win streak

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Malott

    Mike Malott eats 0.3 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 Submission rate favours Malott

    Mike Malott taps opponents 25% more often

  • 04 Striking volume favours Malott

    Mike Malott lands 0.3 more sig strikes per minute

  • 05 KO rate favours Buckley

    Joaquin Buckley finishes by KO 15% more often

  • 06 Striking accuracy favours Malott

    Mike Malott is 16% more accurate on the feet

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Nate Landwehr
Nate Landwehr
United States 18-8-0 Orthodox 3-fight loss streak
75% | 25%
Lightweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 18 Oct · 10:00 AM AEST
Mandel Nallo
Mandel Nallo
Canada 14-4-0 Kickboxer Orthodox 1 loss
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Nate Landwehr
74.9 %
050100
CI · 45 – 98 · σ 0.066 · High
Why this pick
  • Nate Landwehr eats 3.2 fewer strikes per minute
  • Nate Landwehr has been KO'd 55% less often
  • Nate Landwehr taps opponents 18% more often
  • the case against Mandel Nallo finishes by KO 21% more often
  • Nate Landwehr KOs 55% of opponents — Mandel Nallo has been KO'd in 100% of losses
Method Breakdown
Landwehr Nallo
KO/TKO 33.1
4.4
Submission 16.5
5.8
Decision 25.3
15.0
Finish Distribution · By Round
37
R1
18
R2
4
R3
40
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Landwehr Nallo
Str/min 5.6
5.8
Sig Acc 46%
39%
Str Def 51%
32%
TD/min 0.05
0.00
Finish 73%
76%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
40
35
LandwehrNallo
Combined 74 15–167
Takedowns
0.1
0.0
LandwehrNallo
Combined 1.0 0.0–4.4
Fight length
Expected 1.8 of 3 rounds 40% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Landwehr

    Nate Landwehr eats 3.2 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 KO rate favours Nallo

    Mandel Nallo finishes by KO 21% more often

  • 03 KO durability favours Landwehr

    Nate Landwehr has been KO'd 55% less often

  • 04 Striking volume favours Nallo

    Mandel Nallo lands 0.3 more sig strikes per minute

  • 05 Submission rate favours Landwehr

    Nate Landwehr taps opponents 18% more often

  • 06 Striking defence favours Landwehr

    Nate Landwehr avoids 19% more incoming strikes

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Erin Blanchfield
Erin Blanchfield
United States 14-2-0 Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 2-fight win streak
80% | 20%
Women's Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 18 Oct · 10:00 AM AEST
Jasmine Jasudavicius
Jasmine Jasudavicius
Canada 15-4-0 Brawler Orthodox 1 win
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Erin Blanchfield
80.2 %
050100
CI · 50 – 98 · σ 0.068 · High
Why this pick
  • Erin Blanchfield lands 1.9 more sig strikes per minute
  • Erin Blanchfield rides a 1-fight longer win streak
  • Erin Blanchfield taps opponents 19% more often
  • the case against Jasmine Jasudavicius eats 0.9 fewer strikes per minute
  • Erin Blanchfield out-volumes opponents at 5.2 sig/min vs Jasmine Jasudavicius's 3.4
Method Breakdown
Blanchfield Jasudavicius
KO/TKO 16.0
4.4
Submission 13.6
3.3
Decision 50.6
12.1
Finish Distribution · By Round
16
R1
13
R2
9
R3
63
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Blanchfield Jasudavicius
Str/min 5.2
3.4
Sig Acc 44%
44%
Str Def 59%
52%
TD/min 0.13
0.17
Finish 44%
33%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
51
44
BlanchfieldJasudavicius
Combined 107 21–170
Takedowns
0.4
0.8
BlanchfieldJasudavicius
Combined 1.9 0.0–5.3
Fight length
Expected 2.4 of 3 rounds 63% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Blanchfield

    Erin Blanchfield lands 1.9 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Jasudavicius

    Jasmine Jasudavicius eats 0.9 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 Win streak favours Blanchfield

    Erin Blanchfield rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 04 Submission rate favours Blanchfield

    Erin Blanchfield taps opponents 19% more often

  • 05 Finish rate favours Blanchfield

    Erin Blanchfield finishes 11% more of their wins

  • 06 KO rate favours Jasudavicius

    Jasmine Jasudavicius finishes by KO 8% more often

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Tanner Boser
Tanner Boser
Canada 22-11-1 Karate Orthodox 1 loss
35% | 65%
Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 18 Oct · 10:00 AM AEST
Jhonata Diniz
Jhonata Diniz
Brazil 9-2-0 Kickboxer Orthodox 1 loss
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Jhonata Diniz
65.4 %
050100
CI · 35 – 95 · σ 0.052 · High
Why this pick
  • Jhonata Diniz finishes 15% more of their wins
  • Jhonata Diniz finishes by KO 15% more often
  • Jhonata Diniz is 5% more accurate on the feet
  • the case against Tanner Boser lands 1.1 more sig strikes per minute
  • Tanner Boser out-volumes opponents at 4.8 sig/min vs Jhonata Diniz's 3.7
Method Breakdown
Boser Diniz
KO/TKO 14.2
27.4
Submission 2.4
0.1
Decision 18.0
38.0
Finish Distribution · By Round
23
R1
14
R2
7
R3
56
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Boser Diniz
Str/min 4.8
3.7
Sig Acc 54%
59%
Str Def 58%
58%
TD/min 0.00
0.00
Finish 45%
60%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
46
41
BoserDiniz
Combined 85 18–161
Takedowns
0.0
0.0
BoserDiniz
Combined 0.0 0.0–3.9
Fight length
Expected 2.2 of 3 rounds 56% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Boser

    Tanner Boser lands 1.1 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Boser

    Tanner Boser eats 0.4 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 Finish rate favours Diniz

    Jhonata Diniz finishes 15% more of their wins

  • 04 KO rate favours Diniz

    Jhonata Diniz finishes by KO 15% more often

  • 05 KO durability favours Boser

    Tanner Boser has been KO'd 22% less often

  • 06 Striking accuracy favours Diniz

    Jhonata Diniz is 5% more accurate on the feet

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Kyle Daukaus
Kyle Daukaus
United States 17-4-0 Southpaw 1 loss
71% | 29%
Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 18 Oct · 10:00 AM AEST
Marc-Andre Barriault
Marc-Andre Barriault
Canada 17-11-0 Striker Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Kyle Daukaus
70.8 %
050100
CI · 41 – 98 · σ 0.043 · High
Why this pick
  • Kyle Daukaus eats 2.7 fewer strikes per minute
  • Kyle Daukaus finishes 13% more of their wins
  • Kyle Daukaus taps opponents 14% more often
  • the case against Marc-Andre Barriault lands 2.8 more sig strikes per minute
  • Marc-Andre Barriault out-volumes opponents at 5.6 sig/min vs Kyle Daukaus's 2.9
Method Breakdown
Daukaus Barriault
KO/TKO 12.6
12.9
Submission 30.5
0.1
Decision 27.8
16.2
Finish Distribution · By Round
28
R1
17
R2
11
R3
44
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Daukaus Barriault
Str/min 2.9
5.6
Sig Acc 49%
47%
Str Def 42%
49%
TD/min 0.13
0.02
Finish 60%
47%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
43
40
DaukausBarriault
Combined 89 15–151
Takedowns
1.3
0.0
DaukausBarriault
Combined 1.5 0.0–4.6
Fight length
Expected 2.0 of 3 rounds 44% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Daukaus

    Kyle Daukaus eats 2.7 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Barriault

    Marc-Andre Barriault lands 2.8 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Finish rate favours Daukaus

    Kyle Daukaus finishes 13% more of their wins

  • 04 Submission rate favours Daukaus

    Kyle Daukaus taps opponents 14% more often

  • 05 Takedown volume favours Daukaus

    Kyle Daukaus hits 0.11 more takedowns per minute

  • 06 Control time favours Daukaus

    Kyle Daukaus controls 31% more cage time

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Chelsea Chandler
Chelsea Chandler
United States 6-4-0 MMA Southpaw 1 win
13% | 87%
Women's Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 18 Oct · 7:00 AM AEST
Melissa Croden
Melissa Croden
Canada 8-3-0 MMA nan 1 win
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Melissa Croden
86.7 %
050100
CI · 57 – 98 · σ 0.080 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Melissa Croden eats 2.1 fewer strikes per minute
  • Melissa Croden stuffs 42% more incoming takedowns
  • Melissa Croden lands 0.2 more sig strikes per minute
  • the case against Chelsea Chandler finishes 21% more of their wins
  • Melissa Croden has never been finished in 3 fights
Method Breakdown
Chandler Croden
KO/TKO 3.0
18.1
Submission 2.8
4.1
Decision 7.4
64.5
Finish Distribution · By Round
8
R1
11
R2
9
R3
72
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Chandler Croden
Str/min 3.5
3.8
Sig Acc 45%
42%
Str Def 40%
59%
TD/min 0.05
0.12
Finish 50%
29%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
37
53
ChandlerCroden
Combined 91 21–150
Takedowns
0.1
1.3
ChandlerCroden
Combined 1.8 0.0–4.8
Fight length
Expected 2.6 of 3 rounds 72% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Croden

    Melissa Croden eats 2.1 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Takedown defence favours Croden

    Melissa Croden stuffs 42% more incoming takedowns

  • 03 Finish rate favours Chandler

    Chelsea Chandler finishes 21% more of their wins

  • 04 Submission rate favours Chandler

    Chelsea Chandler taps opponents 17% more often

  • 05 Striking volume favours Croden

    Melissa Croden lands 0.2 more sig strikes per minute

  • 06 Striking defence favours Croden

    Melissa Croden avoids 19% more incoming strikes

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Katlyn Cerminara
Katlyn Cerminara
United States 18-6-0 MMA Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
36% | 64%
Women's Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 18 Oct · 7:00 AM AEST
Jamey-Lyn Horth
Jamey-Lyn Horth
Canada 9-3-0 Kickboxer Orthodox 1 loss
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Jamey-Lyn Horth
63.8 %
050100
CI · 34 – 94 · σ 0.057 · High
Why this pick
  • Jamey-Lyn Horth eats 1.8 fewer strikes per minute
  • Jamey-Lyn Horth stuffs 31% more incoming takedowns
  • Jamey-Lyn Horth is 13% more accurate on the feet
  • the case against Katlyn Cerminara lands 0.8 more sig strikes per minute
  • layoff Cerminara hasn't fought since Mar 2024 — ring rust is hard to price, so the model widens its uncertainty here
  • Jamey-Lyn Horth has never been finished in 7 fights
Method Breakdown
Cerminara Horth
KO/TKO 0.1
5.7
Submission 2.6
1.2
Decision 33.5
56.8
Finish Distribution · By Round
5
R1
3
R2
2
R3
90
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Cerminara Horth
Str/min 4.6
3.8
Sig Acc 35%
48%
Str Def 62%
64%
TD/min 0.02
0.07
Finish 12%
14%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
55
72
CerminaraHorth
Combined 126 23–194
Takedowns
0.1
0.3
CerminaraHorth
Combined 1.3 0.0–4.0
Fight length
Expected 2.8 of 3 rounds 90% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Horth

    Jamey-Lyn Horth eats 1.8 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Cerminara

    Katlyn Cerminara lands 0.8 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Takedown defence favours Horth

    Jamey-Lyn Horth stuffs 31% more incoming takedowns

  • 04 Striking accuracy favours Horth

    Jamey-Lyn Horth is 13% more accurate on the feet

  • 05 Loss streak favours Horth

    Jamey-Lyn Horth comes in on a 1-fight cleaner skid

  • 06 Takedown volume favours Horth

    Jamey-Lyn Horth hits 0.04 more takedowns per minute

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Charles Jourdain
Charles Jourdain
Canada 18-8-1 Striker Switch Stance 3-fight win streak
68% | 32%
Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 18 Oct · 7:00 AM AEST
TC
Timmy Cuamba
2-3-0 Orthodox 1 loss
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Charles Jourdain
68.5 %
050100
CI · 38 – 98 · σ 0.058 · High
Why this pick
  • Charles Jourdain lands 2.5 more sig strikes per minute
  • Charles Jourdain rides a 3-fight longer win streak
  • Charles Jourdain taps opponents 24% more often
  • the case against Timmy Cuamba eats 0.6 fewer strikes per minute
  • Charles Jourdain rides a 3-fight win streak (Timmy Cuamba: 0)
Method Breakdown
Jourdain Cuamba
KO/TKO 13.3
10.8
Submission 25.7
2.2
Decision 29.4
18.5
Finish Distribution · By Round
16
R1
22
R2
14
R3
48
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Jourdain Cuamba
Str/min 5.4
2.9
Sig Acc 49%
46%
Str Def 57%
56%
TD/min 0.03
0.10
Finish 47%
40%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
44
38
JourdainCuamba
Combined 92 20–143
Takedowns
0.5
0.6
JourdainCuamba
Combined 1.8 0.0–4.3
Fight length
Expected 2.2 of 3 rounds 48% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Jourdain

    Charles Jourdain lands 2.5 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Jourdain

    Charles Jourdain rides a 3-fight longer win streak

  • 03 Strikes absorbed favours Cuamba

    Timmy Cuamba eats 0.6 fewer strikes per minute

  • 04 Submission rate favours Jourdain

    Charles Jourdain taps opponents 24% more often

  • 05 Takedown defence favours Cuamba

    Timmy Cuamba stuffs 20% more incoming takedowns

  • 06 Takedown volume favours Cuamba

    Timmy Cuamba hits 0.07 more takedowns per minute

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Gilbert Urbina
Gilbert Urbina
United States 7-5-0 MMA Orthodox 1 win
78% | 22%
Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 18 Oct · 7:00 AM AEST
Julien Leblanc
Julien Leblanc
Canada 10-3-0 nan 1 loss
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Gilbert Urbina
77.5 %
050100
CI · 48 – 98 · σ 0.122 · Low
Why this pick
  • Gilbert Urbina lands 5.4 more sig strikes per minute
  • Gilbert Urbina finishes by KO 80% more often
  • Gilbert Urbina rides a 1-fight longer win streak
  • the case against Julien Leblanc eats 1.8 fewer strikes per minute
  • Gilbert Urbina out-volumes opponents at 6.7 sig/min vs Julien Leblanc's 1.3
Method Breakdown
Urbina Leblanc
KO/TKO 25.3
5.6
Submission 20.6
8.3
Decision 31.6
8.6
Finish Distribution · By Round
40
R1
16
R2
4
R3
40
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Urbina Leblanc
Str/min 6.7
1.3
Sig Acc 58%
51%
Str Def 48%
46%
TD/min 0.18
0.00
Finish 100%
76%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
22
19
UrbinaLeblanc
Combined 61 10–118
Takedowns
1.0
0.1
UrbinaLeblanc
Combined 2.0 0.0–5.1
Fight length
Expected 1.7 of 3 rounds 40% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Urbina

    Gilbert Urbina lands 5.4 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Leblanc

    Julien Leblanc eats 1.8 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 KO rate favours Urbina

    Gilbert Urbina finishes by KO 80% more often

  • 04 Win streak favours Urbina

    Gilbert Urbina rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 05 Finish rate favours Urbina

    Gilbert Urbina finishes 24% more of their wins

  • 06 Takedown volume favours Urbina

    Gilbert Urbina hits 0.18 more takedowns per minute

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Alexander Volkanovski
Volkanovski
Title · Main Event
58%
Model Leans Evloev
2026-10-24
Movsar Evloev
Evloev
UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev
2026
24
OCT
UPCOMING CARD

UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev

Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
9
Bouts
Alexander Volkanovski
C Alexander Volkanovski
Australia 28-4-0 Orthodox 2-fight win streak
SB 1.90
42% | 58%
Featherweight 5 rds
⏱ Sun 25 Oct · 6:30 AM AEST
Movsar Evloev
Movsar Evloev
Russia 20-0-0 Freestyle Orthodox 10-fight win streak
SB 1.90
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Movsar Evloev
57.6 %
050100
CI · 28 – 88 · σ 0.065 · High
Why this pick
  • Movsar Evloev rides a 8-fight longer win streak
  • Movsar Evloev eats 0.5 fewer strikes per minute
  • Movsar Evloev hits 0.21 more takedowns per minute
  • the case against Alexander Volkanovski lands 2.1 more sig strikes per minute
  • Movsar Evloev rides a 10-fight win streak (Alexander Volkanovski: 2)
Method Breakdown
Volkanovski Evloev
KO/TKO 15.8
8.5
Submission 2.7
7.9
Decision 23.9
41.2
Finish Distribution · By Round
4
R1
12
R2
9
R3
6
R4
3
R5
65
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Volkanovski Evloev
Str/min 6.0
3.9
Sig Acc 57%
48%
Str Def 59%
61%
TD/min 0.11
0.32
Finish 39%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
55
69
VolkanovskiEvloev
Combined 148 23–237
Takedowns
0.6
1.7
VolkanovskiEvloev
Combined 2.8 0.0–6.4
Fight length
Expected 4.1 of 5 rounds 66% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Evloev

    Movsar Evloev rides a 8-fight longer win streak

  • 02 Striking volume favours Volkanovski

    Alexander Volkanovski lands 2.1 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Strikes absorbed favours Evloev

    Movsar Evloev eats 0.5 fewer strikes per minute

  • 04 Finish rate favours Volkanovski

    Alexander Volkanovski finishes 39% more of their wins

  • 05 KO rate favours Volkanovski

    Alexander Volkanovski finishes by KO 39% more often

  • 06 Takedown volume favours Evloev

    Movsar Evloev hits 0.21 more takedowns per minute

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed
No markets passed the value gate. 2 markets analysed.
Merab Dvalishvili
C Merab Dvalishvili
Georgia 21-5-0 Freestyle Orthodox 1 loss
SB 2.31
39% | 61%
Bantamweight 5 rds
⏱ Sun 25 Oct · 5:45 AM AEST
Petr Yan
Petr Yan
Russia 20-5-0 Boxer Switch Stance 4-fight win streak
SB 1.59
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Petr Yan
61.2 %
050100
CI · 31 – 91 · σ 0.070 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Petr Yan rides a 4-fight longer win streak
  • Petr Yan lands 0.8 more sig strikes per minute
  • Petr Yan finishes by KO 21% more often
  • the case against Merab Dvalishvili eats 1.4 fewer strikes per minute
  • Petr Yan rides a 4-fight win streak (Merab Dvalishvili: 0)
Method Breakdown
Dvalishvili Yan
KO/TKO 8.7
24.2
Submission 4.4
2.4
Decision 25.7
34.6
Finish Distribution · By Round
6
R1
14
R2
10
R3
6
R4
3
R5
60
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Dvalishvili Yan
Str/min 4.4
5.2
Sig Acc 42%
54%
Str Def 54%
60%
TD/min 0.40
0.10
Finish 18%
27%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
69
67
DvalishviliYan
Combined 157 23–223
Takedowns
2.0
0.0
DvalishviliYan
Combined 2.3 0.0–6.4
Fight length
Expected 3.9 of 5 rounds 60% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Dvalishvili

    Merab Dvalishvili eats 1.4 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Yan

    Petr Yan rides a 4-fight longer win streak

  • 03 Striking volume favours Yan

    Petr Yan lands 0.8 more sig strikes per minute

  • 04 Takedown volume favours Dvalishvili

    Merab Dvalishvili hits 0.30 more takedowns per minute

  • 05 KO rate favours Yan

    Petr Yan finishes by KO 21% more often

  • 06 Finish rate favours Yan

    Petr Yan finishes 9% more of their wins

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed
No markets passed the value gate. 2 markets analysed.
Ramazan Temirov
Ramazan Temirov
Uzbekistan 19-3-0 Striker Orthodox 3-fight win streak
79% | 21%
Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 25 Oct · 4:00 AM AEST
LK
Lone'er Kavanagh
3-2-0 Orthodox 1 loss
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Ramazan Temirov
78.8 %
050100
CI · 49 – 98 · σ 0.069 · High
Why this pick
  • Ramazan Temirov rides a 3-fight longer win streak
  • Ramazan Temirov finishes by KO 47% more often
  • Ramazan Temirov lands 0.6 more sig strikes per minute
  • Ramazan Temirov rides a 3-fight win streak (Lone'er Kavanagh: 0)
Method Breakdown
Temirov Kavanagh
KO/TKO 29.9
5.2
Submission 6.4
1.9
Decision 42.4
14.1
Finish Distribution · By Round
26
R1
12
R2
6
R3
57
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Temirov Kavanagh
Str/min 4.7
4.1
Sig Acc 41%
50%
Str Def 62%
54%
TD/min 0.05
0.08
Finish 67%
40%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
48
46
TemirovKavanagh
Combined 94 20–150
Takedowns
0.1
0.0
TemirovKavanagh
Combined 0.7 0.0–3.8
Fight length
Expected 2.1 of 3 rounds 57% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Temirov

    Ramazan Temirov rides a 3-fight longer win streak

  • 02 KO rate favours Temirov

    Ramazan Temirov finishes by KO 47% more often

  • 03 Striking volume favours Temirov

    Ramazan Temirov lands 0.6 more sig strikes per minute

  • 04 Finish rate favours Temirov

    Ramazan Temirov finishes 27% more of their wins

  • 05 Strikes absorbed favours Temirov

    Ramazan Temirov eats 0.3 fewer strikes per minute

  • 06 Takedown defence favours Temirov

    Ramazan Temirov stuffs 17% more incoming takedowns

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Alexander Volkov
Alexander Volkov
Russia 40-11-0 Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 2-fight win streak
70% | 30%
Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 25 Oct · 4:00 AM AEST
Rizvan Kuniev
Rizvan Kuniev
Russia 12-3-1 Orthodox 2-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Alexander Volkov
70.4 %
050100
CI · 40 – 98 · σ 0.066 · High
Why this pick
  • Alexander Volkov lands 1.3 more sig strikes per minute
  • Alexander Volkov finishes 14% more of their wins
  • Alexander Volkov is 10% more accurate on the feet
  • the case against Rizvan Kuniev eats 0.5 fewer strikes per minute
  • Alexander Volkov has a 16-fight UFC experience edge (19 vs 3)
Method Breakdown
Volkov Kuniev
KO/TKO 27.4
14.2
Submission 8.7
1.3
Decision 34.3
14.2
Finish Distribution · By Round
26
R1
16
R2
10
R3
48
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Volkov Kuniev
Str/min 5.1
3.7
Sig Acc 58%
48%
Str Def 54%
48%
TD/min 0.04
0.00
Finish 47%
33%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
47
44
VolkovKuniev
Combined 105 22–142
Takedowns
0.1
0.2
VolkovKuniev
Combined 0.6 0.0–4.0
Fight length
Expected 2.1 of 3 rounds 48% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Volkov

    Alexander Volkov lands 1.3 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Kuniev

    Rizvan Kuniev eats 0.5 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 Finish rate favours Volkov

    Alexander Volkov finishes 14% more of their wins

  • 04 Takedown defence favours Kuniev

    Rizvan Kuniev stuffs 23% more incoming takedowns

  • 05 Striking accuracy favours Volkov

    Alexander Volkov is 10% more accurate on the feet

  • 06 Submission rate favours Volkov

    Alexander Volkov taps opponents 5% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Arnold Allen
Arnold Allen
England 20-4-0 MMA Southpaw 1 win
66% | 34%
Featherweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 25 Oct · 4:00 AM AEST
Aaron Pico
Aaron Pico
United States 14-5-0 Boxing Orthodox 1 win
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Arnold Allen
66.4 %
050100
CI · 36 – 96 · σ 0.069 · High
Why this pick
  • Arnold Allen has been KO'd 50% less often
  • Arnold Allen taps opponents 13% more often
  • the case against Aaron Pico lands 2.6 more sig strikes per minute
  • Aaron Pico out-volumes opponents at 6.2 sig/min vs Arnold Allen's 3.5
Method Breakdown
Allen Pico
KO/TKO 21.6
13.4
Submission 10.4
1.9
Decision 34.4
18.2
Finish Distribution · By Round
24
R1
14
R2
9
R3
53
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Allen Pico
Str/min 3.5
6.2
Sig Acc 44%
54%
Str Def 60%
45%
TD/min 0.08
0.44
Finish 27%
50%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
39
41
AllenPico
Combined 96 19–142
Takedowns
0.4
1.2
AllenPico
Combined 2.5 0.0–5.9
Fight length
Expected 2.1 of 3 rounds 53% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Pico

    Aaron Pico lands 2.6 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Takedown volume favours Pico

    Aaron Pico hits 0.35 more takedowns per minute

  • 03 KO rate favours Pico

    Aaron Pico finishes by KO 37% more often

  • 04 Finish rate favours Pico

    Aaron Pico finishes 23% more of their wins

  • 05 KO durability favours Allen

    Arnold Allen has been KO'd 50% less often

  • 06 Submission rate favours Allen

    Arnold Allen taps opponents 13% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Azamat Murzakanov
Azamat Murzakanov
Russia 16-1-0 MMA Southpaw 1 loss
43% | 57%
Light Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 25 Oct · 12:00 AM AEST
Dominick Reyes
Dominick Reyes
United States 16-5-0 Kickboxer Southpaw 1 win
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Dominick Reyes
57.1 %
050100
CI · 27 – 87 · σ 0.079 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Dominick Reyes rides a 1-fight longer win streak
  • Dominick Reyes lands 0.5 more sig strikes per minute
  • Dominick Reyes taps opponents 7% more often
  • the case against Azamat Murzakanov finishes by KO 19% more often
  • Azamat Murzakanov KOs 86% of opponents — Dominick Reyes has been KO'd in 27% of losses
Method Breakdown
Murzakanov Reyes
KO/TKO 28.9
33.6
Submission 1.6
4.8
Decision 12.3
18.8
Finish Distribution · By Round
36
R1
22
R2
10
R3
31
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Murzakanov Reyes
Str/min 4.5
5.0
Sig Acc 56%
54%
Str Def 56%
50%
TD/min 0.05
0.02
Finish 86%
73%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
34
35
MurzakanovReyes
Combined 74 14–133
Takedowns
0.0
0.0
MurzakanovReyes
Combined 0.4 0.0–4.0
Fight length
Expected 1.7 of 3 rounds 31% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Reyes

    Dominick Reyes rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 02 Striking volume favours Reyes

    Dominick Reyes lands 0.5 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 KO rate favours Murzakanov

    Azamat Murzakanov finishes by KO 19% more often

  • 04 Finish rate favours Murzakanov

    Azamat Murzakanov finishes 12% more of their wins

  • 05 Strikes absorbed favours Murzakanov

    Azamat Murzakanov eats 0.1 fewer strikes per minute

  • 06 Submission rate favours Reyes

    Dominick Reyes taps opponents 7% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Abus Magomedov
Abus Magomedov
Russia 28-7-1 MMA Orthodox 1 win
40% | 60%
Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 25 Oct · 12:00 AM AEST
CR
Cam Rowston
3-0-0 Orthodox 3-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Cam Rowston
59.9 %
050100
CI · 30 – 90 · σ 0.057 · High
Why this pick
  • Cam Rowston lands 2.5 more sig strikes per minute
  • Cam Rowston eats 1.4 fewer strikes per minute
  • Cam Rowston rides a 2-fight longer win streak
  • the case against Abus Magomedov taps opponents 25% more often
  • Cam Rowston out-volumes opponents at 5.5 sig/min vs Abus Magomedov's 3.1
Method Breakdown
Magomedov Rowston
KO/TKO 12.3
24.9
Submission 10.3
17.1
Decision 17.6
17.8
Finish Distribution · By Round
34
R1
21
R2
10
R3
35
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Magomedov Rowston
Str/min 3.1
5.5
Sig Acc 49%
49%
Str Def 56%
54%
TD/min 0.17
0.11
Finish 62%
67%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
26
29
MagomedovRowston
Combined 54 18–119
Takedowns
0.4
0.3
MagomedovRowston
Combined 1.3 0.0–4.5
Fight length
Expected 1.8 of 3 rounds 35% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Rowston

    Cam Rowston lands 2.5 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Rowston

    Cam Rowston eats 1.4 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 Win streak favours Rowston

    Cam Rowston rides a 2-fight longer win streak

  • 04 KO rate favours Rowston

    Cam Rowston finishes by KO 42% more often

  • 05 Submission rate favours Magomedov

    Abus Magomedov taps opponents 25% more often

  • 06 Takedown volume favours Magomedov

    Abus Magomedov hits 0.05 more takedowns per minute

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Nikita Krylov
Nikita Krylov
Ukraine 31-11-0 Karate Orthodox 1 loss
17% | 83%
3 rds
AY
Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev
3-0-0 Orthodox 3-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev
83.3 %
050100
CI · 53 – 98 · σ 0.075 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev rides a 3-fight longer win streak
  • Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev eats 0.7 fewer strikes per minute
  • Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev hits 0.62 more takedowns per minute
  • Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev rides a 3-fight win streak (Nikita Krylov: 0)
Method Breakdown
Krylov Yakhyaev
KO/TKO 6.2
9.6
Submission 4.5
50.2
Decision 6.0
23.5
Finish Distribution · By Round
41
R1
16
R2
9
R3
29
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Krylov Yakhyaev
Str/min 4.4
4.9
Sig Acc 54%
58%
Str Def 48%
58%
TD/min 0.15
0.77
Finish 82%
100%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
27
30
KrylovYakhyaev
Combined 41 11–110
Takedowns
0.2
1.8
KrylovYakhyaev
Combined 2.3 0.0–5.7
Fight length
Expected 1.6 of 3 rounds 31% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Yakhyaev

    Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev rides a 3-fight longer win streak

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Yakhyaev

    Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev eats 0.7 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 Takedown volume favours Yakhyaev

    Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev hits 0.62 more takedowns per minute

  • 04 Submission rate favours Yakhyaev

    Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev taps opponents 44% more often

  • 05 Striking volume favours Yakhyaev

    Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev lands 0.5 more sig strikes per minute

  • 06 Finish rate favours Yakhyaev

    Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev finishes 18% more of their wins

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Grant Dawson
Grant Dawson
United States 24-3-1 Switch Stance 1 win
48% | 52%
Lightweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 25 Oct · 12:00 AM AEST
Nurullo Aliev
Nurullo Aliev
11-0-0 Wrestling Orthodox 4-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Nurullo Aliev
52.1 %
050100
CI · 22 – 82 · σ 0.073 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Nurullo Aliev rides a 3-fight longer win streak
  • Nurullo Aliev eats 0.5 fewer strikes per minute
  • the case against Grant Dawson lands 1.1 more sig strikes per minute
  • Nurullo Aliev rides a 4-fight win streak (Grant Dawson: 1)
Method Breakdown
Dawson Aliev
KO/TKO 11.4
8.6
Submission 22.0
1.9
Decision 14.5
41.7
Finish Distribution · By Round
22
R1
13
R2
9
R3
56
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Dawson Aliev
Str/min 3.1
2.0
Sig Acc 51%
42%
Str Def 45%
56%
TD/min 0.24
0.23
Finish 60%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
29
33
DawsonAliev
Combined 64 21–111
Takedowns
1.0
0.9
DawsonAliev
Combined 2.4 0.0–5.6
Fight length
Expected 2.2 of 3 rounds 56% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Aliev

    Nurullo Aliev rides a 3-fight longer win streak

  • 02 Striking volume favours Dawson

    Grant Dawson lands 1.1 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Finish rate favours Dawson

    Grant Dawson finishes 60% more of their wins

  • 04 Strikes absorbed favours Aliev

    Nurullo Aliev eats 0.5 fewer strikes per minute

  • 05 Submission rate favours Dawson

    Grant Dawson taps opponents 33% more often

  • 06 KO rate favours Dawson

    Grant Dawson finishes by KO 27% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Sean Brady
Brady
Main Event
57%
Model Leans Bonfim
2026-11-07
Gabriel Bonfim
Bonfim
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady
2026
07
NOV
UPCOMING CARD

UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady

Meta APEX, Las Vegas, USA
2
Bouts
Sean Brady
Sean Brady
United States 19-2-0 Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 1 win
43% | 57%
Welterweight 5 rds
⏱ Sun 8 Nov · 11:00 AM AEST
Gabriel Bonfim
Gabriel Bonfim
Brazil 19-1-0 Striker Orthodox 5-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Gabriel Bonfim
56.9 %
050100
CI · 27 – 87 · σ 0.057 · High
Why this pick
  • Gabriel Bonfim rides a 4-fight longer win streak
  • Gabriel Bonfim lands 0.6 more sig strikes per minute
  • Gabriel Bonfim finishes 8% more of their wins
  • the case against Sean Brady eats 0.8 fewer strikes per minute
  • Gabriel Bonfim rides a 5-fight win streak (Sean Brady: 1)
Method Breakdown
Brady Bonfim
KO/TKO 5.0
25.6
Submission 8.1
9.8
Decision 30.0
21.6
Finish Distribution · By Round
0
R1
19
R2
0
R3
23
R4
6
R5
52
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Brady Bonfim
Str/min 4.1
4.7
Sig Acc 53%
48%
Str Def 60%
64%
TD/min 0.24
0.17
Finish 55%
62%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
59
51
BradyBonfim
Combined 115 21–210
Takedowns
1.2
0.1
BradyBonfim
Combined 1.8 0.0–5.3
Fight length
Expected 4.0 of 5 rounds 52% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Bonfim

    Gabriel Bonfim rides a 4-fight longer win streak

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Brady

    Sean Brady eats 0.8 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 Striking volume favours Bonfim

    Gabriel Bonfim lands 0.6 more sig strikes per minute

  • 04 Finish rate favours Bonfim

    Gabriel Bonfim finishes 8% more of their wins

  • 05 Control time favours Brady

    Sean Brady controls 33% more cage time

  • 06 Takedown volume favours Brady

    Sean Brady hits 0.07 more takedowns per minute

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
TB
TBA
— | —
No model pick
3 rds ⏱ Sun 8 Nov · 8:00 AM AEST
OT
Opponent TBA
Breakdown ▼
⟁ No model pick — one fighter has no fight-record data in any source (typically a promotional debut), so the model can't price this bout.
Predictions soon
2026-09-08
Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 5
2026
08
SEP
predictions soon

Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 5

Meta APEX, Las Vegas, USA
1
Bouts
TB
TBA
50% | 50%
5 rds ⏱ Wed 9 Sep · 9:00 AM AEST
OT
Opponent TBA
Breakdown ▼
⟁ This fight is on the upcoming schedule but stats and predictions aren't available yet. The matrix will compute them closer to event time.
Predictions soon
2026-09-15
Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 6
2026
15
SEP
predictions soon

Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 6

Meta APEX, Las Vegas, USA
1
Bouts
TB
TBA
50% | 50%
5 rds ⏱ Wed 16 Sep · 9:00 AM AEST
OT
Opponent TBA
Breakdown ▼
⟁ This fight is on the upcoming schedule but stats and predictions aren't available yet. The matrix will compute them closer to event time.
Predictions soon
2026-09-22
Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 7
2026
22
SEP
predictions soon

Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 7

Meta APEX, Las Vegas, USA
1
Bouts
TB
TBA
50% | 50%
5 rds ⏱ Wed 23 Sep · 9:00 AM AEST
OT
Opponent TBA
Breakdown ▼
⟁ This fight is on the upcoming schedule but stats and predictions aren't available yet. The matrix will compute them closer to event time.
Predictions soon
2026-09-29
Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 8
2026
29
SEP
predictions soon

Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 8

Meta APEX, Las Vegas, USA
1
Bouts
TB
TBA
50% | 50%
5 rds ⏱ Wed 30 Sep · 9:00 AM AEST
OT
Opponent TBA
Breakdown ▼
⟁ This fight is on the upcoming schedule but stats and predictions aren't available yet. The matrix will compute them closer to event time.
Predictions soon
2026-10-03
UFC 332
2026
03
OCT
predictions soon

UFC 332

Delta Center, Salt Lake City, USA
3
Bouts
TB
TBA
50% | 50%
5 rds ⏱ Sun 4 Oct · 11:00 AM AEST
OT
Opponent TBA
Breakdown ▼
⟁ This fight is on the upcoming schedule but stats and predictions aren't available yet. The matrix will compute them closer to event time.
TB
TBA
50% | 50%
3 rds ⏱ Sun 4 Oct · 9:00 AM AEST
OT
Opponent TBA
Breakdown ▼
⟁ This fight is on the upcoming schedule but stats and predictions aren't available yet. The matrix will compute them closer to event time.
TB
TBA
50% | 50%
3 rds ⏱ Sun 4 Oct · 7:00 AM AEST
OT
Opponent TBA
Breakdown ▼
⟁ This fight is on the upcoming schedule but stats and predictions aren't available yet. The matrix will compute them closer to event time.
Predictions soon
2026-10-06
Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 9
2026
06
OCT
predictions soon

Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 9

Meta APEX, Las Vegas, USA
1
Bouts
TB
TBA
50% | 50%
5 rds ⏱ Wed 7 Oct · 9:00 AM AEST
OT
Opponent TBA
Breakdown ▼
⟁ This fight is on the upcoming schedule but stats and predictions aren't available yet. The matrix will compute them closer to event time.
Predictions soon
2026-10-13
Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 10
2026
13
OCT
predictions soon

Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 10

Meta APEX, Las Vegas, USA
1
Bouts
TB
TBA
50% | 50%
5 rds ⏱ Wed 14 Oct · 9:00 AM AEST
OT
Opponent TBA
Breakdown ▼
⟁ This fight is on the upcoming schedule but stats and predictions aren't available yet. The matrix will compute them closer to event time.