Moirai · UFC Personification of Fate

01 Strikes absorbed favours Chimaev

Khamzat Chimaev eats 10.4 fewer strikes per minute
02 Striking volume favours Strickland

Sean Strickland lands 11.3 more sig strikes per minute
03 Win streak favours Chimaev

Khamzat Chimaev rides a 8-fight longer win streak
04 Takedown volume favours Chimaev

Khamzat Chimaev hits 0.73 more takedowns per minute
05 Control time favours Chimaev

Khamzat Chimaev controls 139% more cage time
06 Submission rate favours Chimaev

Khamzat Chimaev taps opponents 40% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 19 flagged · 100 markets analysed

Khamzat Chimaev wins by KO/TKO
Strong pick

Model 25%

Bookies 1%

EV / $100 +$2388

Stake 6.0%

101.00

$60 returns $6060

+$6000 profit
Sean Strickland wins by KO/TKO
Solid edge

Model 8%

Bookies 0%

EV / $100 +$1848

Stake 1.9%

251.00

$19 returns $4769

+$4750 profit
Khamzat Chimaev wins by SUB
Strong pick

Model 22%

Bookies 2%

EV / $100 +$1225

Stake 5.1%

61.00

$51 returns $3111

+$3060 profit
Khamzat Chimaev wins by DEC
Strong pick

Model 29%

Bookies 7%

EV / $100 +$333

Stake 6.0%

15.00

$60 returns $900

+$840 profit
Sean Strickland wins by DEC
Strong pick

Model 15%

Bookies 4%

EV / $100 +$235

Stake 2.7%

23.00

$27 returns $621

+$594 profit
Sean Strickland wins by finish in Round 1
Solid edge

Model 11%

Bookies 4%

EV / $100 +$178

Stake 1.8%

26.00

$18 returns $468

+$450 profit
Sean Strickland wins by finish in Round 3
Solid edge

Model 6%

Bookies 3%

EV / $100 +$97

Stake 0.8%

31.00

$8 returns $248

+$240 profit
Sean Strickland wins by Sub or Decision
Solid edge

Model 17%

Bookies 11%

EV / $100 +$49

Stake 1.6%

8.75

$16 returns $140

+$124 profit
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision
Strong pick

Model 65%

Bookies 44%

EV / $100 +$47

Stake 9.4%

2.25

$94 returns $212

+$118 profit
Fight goes to decision
Strong pick

Model 43%

Bookies 32%

EV / $100 +$36

Stake 4.2%

3.14

$42 returns $132

+$90 profit
Khamzat Chimaev wins by KO/TKO in R1, R2 or R3
Solid edge

Model 21%

Bookies 16%

EV / $100 +$34

Stake 1.6%

6.25

$16 returns $100

+$84 profit
Khamzat Chimaev wins by KO or Decision
Strong pick

Model 54%

Bookies 40%

EV / $100 +$34

Stake 5.6%

2.50

$56 returns $140

+$84 profit
Khamzat Chimaev wins by finish in Round 3
Solid edge

Model 19%

Bookies 15%

EV / $100 +$30

Stake 1.3%

6.75

$13 returns $88

+$75 profit
Fight ends by KO/TKO
Solid edge

Model 32%

Bookies 27%

EV / $100 +$21

Stake 1.9%

3.75

$20 returns $75

+$55 profit
Fight reaches Round 5
Strong pick

Model 46%

Bookies 38%

EV / $100 +$21

Stake 3.1%

2.65

$32 returns $85

+$53 profit
Khamzat Chimaev wins in R4+ or by Decision
Strong pick

Model 38%

Bookies 32%

EV / $100 +$18

Stake 2.2%

3.10

$22 returns $68

+$46 profit
Sean Strickland wins by KO or Decision
Solid edge

Model 22%

Bookies 19%

EV / $100 +$18

Stake 1.1%

5.30

$11 returns $58

+$47 profit
Khamzat Chimaev wins by finish in Round 1
Solid edge

Model 32%

Bookies 28%

EV / $100 +$17

Stake 1.6%

3.60

$16 returns $58

+$42 profit
Fight reaches Round 4
Strong pick

Model 51%

Bookies 44%

EV / $100 +$14

Stake 2.9%

2.25

$29 returns $65

+$36 profit

Tatsuro Taira

18-1-0 Orthodox 2-fight win streak

SB 1.58

48.9% | 51.1%

Flyweight 5 rds
⏱ Sun 12:45 PM AEST

Joshua Van

16-2-0 Freestyle Orthodox 6-fight win streak

SB 2.40

▼

Model Favourite

Joshua Van

51.1 %

050100

90% CI · 39 – 63 · σ 0.061 · High

Why this pick

Tatsuro Taira eats 12.5 fewer strikes per minute
Joshua Van lands 18.7 more sig strikes per minute
Joshua Van rides a 4-fight longer win streak
Joshua Van out-volumes opponents at 27.8 sig/min vs Tatsuro Taira's 9.1
Joshua Van rides a 6-fight win streak (Tatsuro Taira: 2)

Method Breakdown

Taira Van

KO/TKO 10.9

25.3

Submission 23.1

3.3

Decision 14.9

22.5

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Key Stats career avg

Taira Van

SLpM 9.1

27.8

Sig Acc 60%

57%

Str Def 47%

58%

TD/min 0.64

0.18

Finish 67%

40%

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours Taira

Tatsuro Taira eats 12.5 fewer strikes per minute
02 Striking volume favours Van

Joshua Van lands 18.7 more sig strikes per minute
03 Win streak favours Van

Joshua Van rides a 4-fight longer win streak
04 Control time favours Taira

Tatsuro Taira controls 146% more cage time
05 Takedown volume favours Taira

Tatsuro Taira hits 0.47 more takedowns per minute
06 Submission rate favours Taira

Tatsuro Taira taps opponents 33% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 16 flagged · 100 markets analysed

Joshua Van wins by KO/TKO
Strong pick

Model 25%

Bookies 1%

EV / $100 +$3084

Stake 6.2%

126.00

$62 returns $7812

+$7750 profit
Tatsuro Taira wins by KO/TKO
Strong pick

Model 11%

Bookies 1%

EV / $100 +$1824

Stake 2.6%

176.00

$26 returns $4576

+$4550 profit
Joshua Van wins by SUB
Solid edge

Model 3%

Bookies 0%

EV / $100 +$1568

Stake 0.8%

501.00

$8 returns $4008

+$4000 profit
Tatsuro Taira wins by SUB
Strong pick

Model 23%

Bookies 2%

EV / $100 +$848

Stake 5.3%

41.00

$53 returns $2173

+$2120 profit
Joshua Van wins by finish in Round 1
Strong pick

Model 28%

Bookies 8%

EV / $100 +$245

Stake 5.3%

12.50

$53 returns $662

+$610 profit
Joshua Van wins by DEC
Strong pick

Model 22%

Bookies 7%

EV / $100 +$237

Stake 4.2%

15.00

$42 returns $630

+$588 profit
Tatsuro Taira wins by finish in Round 1
Strong pick

Model 26%

Bookies 15%

EV / $100 +$78

Stake 3.4%

6.75

$34 returns $230

+$196 profit
Joshua Van wins by KO/TKO in R1
Solid edge

Model 14%

Bookies 8%

EV / $100 +$78

Stake 1.6%

13.00

$16 returns $208

+$192 profit
Tatsuro Taira wins by DEC
Solid edge

Model 15%

Bookies 9%

EV / $100 +$71

Stake 1.7%

11.50

$17 returns $196

+$178 profit
Fight ends by finish in Round 1
Strong pick

Model 34%

Bookies 21%

EV / $100 +$61

Stake 4.1%

4.75

$41 returns $195

+$154 profit
Joshua Van wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2
Solid edge

Model 18%

Bookies 12%

EV / $100 +$46

Stake 1.6%

8.00

$16 returns $128

+$112 profit
Joshua Van wins by KO/TKO in R1, R2 or R3
Solid edge

Model 22%

Bookies 17%

EV / $100 +$32

Stake 1.6%

6.00

$16 returns $96

+$80 profit
Finish before Round 3
Strong pick

Model 45%

Bookies 34%

EV / $100 +$31

Stake 4.1%

2.90

$41 returns $119

+$78 profit
Joshua Van wins by Sub or Decision
Solid edge

Model 26%

Bookies 21%

EV / $100 +$24

Stake 1.6%

4.80

$16 returns $77

+$61 profit
Finish before Round 4
Strong pick

Model 54%

Bookies 47%

EV / $100 +$17

Stake 3.7%

2.15

$37 returns $80

+$43 profit
Joshua Van wins by KO or Decision
Strong pick

Model 48%

Bookies 41%

EV / $100 +$17

Stake 2.9%

2.45

$29 returns $71

+$42 profit

Alexander Volkov

39-11-0 Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 1 win

SB 1.67

51.9% | 48.1%

Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 12:15 PM AEST

Waldo Cortes Acosta

17-2-0 Striker Orthodox 3-fight win streak

SB 2.22

▼

Model Favourite

Waldo Cortes Acosta

48.1 %

050100

90% CI · 34 – 62 · σ 0.068 · High

Why this pick

Waldo Cortes Acosta eats 1.2 fewer strikes per minute
Alexander Volkov lands 2.6 more sig strikes per minute
Waldo Cortes Acosta rides a 2-fight longer win streak
Alexander Volkov out-volumes opponents at 16.3 sig/min vs Waldo Cortes Acosta's 13.7
Waldo Cortes Acosta rides a 3-fight win streak (Alexander Volkov: 1)

Method Breakdown

Volkov Acosta

KO/TKO 22.7

20.6

Submission 6.2

0.5

Decision 23.1

26.9

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Key Stats career avg

Volkov Acosta

SLpM 16.3

13.7

Sig Acc 57%

49%

Str Def 54%

57%

TD/min 0.14

0.08

Finish 50%

42%

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours Acosta

Waldo Cortes Acosta eats 1.2 fewer strikes per minute
02 Striking volume favours Volkov

Alexander Volkov lands 2.6 more sig strikes per minute
03 Win streak favours Acosta

Waldo Cortes Acosta rides a 2-fight longer win streak
04 Takedown volume favours Volkov

Alexander Volkov hits 0.06 more takedowns per minute
05 Finish rate favours Volkov

Alexander Volkov finishes 8% more of their wins
06 Submission rate favours Volkov

Alexander Volkov taps opponents 6% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 11 flagged · 58 markets analysed

Alexander Volkov wins by finish in Round 1
Strong pick

Model 23%

Bookies 12%

EV / $100 +$94

Stake 3.1%

8.50

$31 returns $264

+$232 profit
Alexander Volkov wins by finish in Round 2
Strong pick

Model 18%

Bookies 10%

EV / $100 +$77

Stake 2.1%

10.00

$21 returns $210

+$189 profit
Waldo Cortes Acosta wins by finish in Round 1
Strong pick

Model 21%

Bookies 12%

EV / $100 +$69

Stake 2.5%

8.00

$25 returns $200

+$175 profit
Waldo Cortes Acosta wins by finish in Round 2
Solid edge

Model 16%

Bookies 10%

EV / $100 +$64

Stake 1.8%

10.00

$18 returns $180

+$162 profit
Under 2.5 rounds
Strong pick

Model 48%

Bookies 36%

EV / $100 +$33

Stake 4.7%

2.75

$47 returns $129

+$82 profit
Alexander Volkov wins by KO or Sub
Strong pick

Model 29%

Bookies 22%

EV / $100 +$30

Stake 2.1%

4.50

$21 returns $94

+$74 profit
Alexander Volkov wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2
Solid edge

Model 18%

Bookies 15%

EV / $100 +$24

Stake 1.0%

6.75

$10 returns $68

+$58 profit
Finish before Round 3
Strong pick

Model 39%

Bookies 32%

EV / $100 +$21

Stake 2.5%

3.11

$25 returns $78

+$53 profit
Alexander Volkov wins by KO/TKO
Solid edge

Model 23%

Bookies 19%

EV / $100 +$20

Stake 1.2%

5.30

$12 returns $64

+$52 profit
Fight ends by KO/TKO
Strong pick

Model 43%

Bookies 36%

EV / $100 +$19

Stake 2.7%

2.75

$27 returns $74

+$47 profit
Waldo Cortes Acosta wins by KO or Decision
Solid edge

Model 48%

Bookies 43%

EV / $100 +$9

Stake 1.8%

2.30

$18 returns $41

+$23 profit

Alexander Volkov

39-11-0 Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 1 win

SB 1.67

51.7% | 48.3%

Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 12:15 PM AEST

Waldo Cortes Acosta

17-2-0 Striker Orthodox 3-fight win streak

SB 2.22

▼

Model Favourite

Waldo Cortes Acosta

48.3 %

050100

90% CI · 36 – 61 · σ 0.062 · High

Why this pick

Waldo Cortes Acosta eats 1.2 fewer strikes per minute
Alexander Volkov lands 2.6 more sig strikes per minute
Waldo Cortes Acosta rides a 2-fight longer win streak
Alexander Volkov out-volumes opponents at 16.3 sig/min vs Waldo Cortes Acosta's 13.7
Waldo Cortes Acosta rides a 3-fight win streak (Alexander Volkov: 1)

Method Breakdown

Volkov Acosta

KO/TKO 11.8

18.1

Submission 6.9

3.1

Decision 33.0

27.1

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Key Stats career avg

Volkov Acosta

SLpM 16.3

13.7

Sig Acc 57%

49%

Str Def 54%

57%

TD/min 0.14

0.08

Finish 50%

42%

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours Acosta

Waldo Cortes Acosta eats 1.2 fewer strikes per minute
02 Striking volume favours Volkov

Alexander Volkov lands 2.6 more sig strikes per minute
03 Win streak favours Acosta

Waldo Cortes Acosta rides a 2-fight longer win streak
04 Takedown volume favours Volkov

Alexander Volkov hits 0.06 more takedowns per minute
05 Finish rate favours Volkov

Alexander Volkov finishes 8% more of their wins
06 Submission rate favours Volkov

Alexander Volkov taps opponents 6% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 4 flagged · 58 markets analysed

Alexander Volkov wins by finish in Round 1
Strong pick

Model 24%

Bookies 12%

EV / $100 +$105

Stake 3.5%

8.50

$35 returns $298

+$262 profit
Waldo Cortes Acosta wins by finish in Round 1
Strong pick

Model 23%

Bookies 12%

EV / $100 +$80

Stake 2.9%

8.00

$29 returns $232

+$203 profit
Alexander Volkov wins by finish in Round 2
Strong pick

Model 18%

Bookies 10%

EV / $100 +$79

Stake 2.2%

10.00

$22 returns $220

+$198 profit
Waldo Cortes Acosta wins by finish in Round 2
Solid edge

Model 17%

Bookies 10%

EV / $100 +$67

Stake 1.9%

10.00

$19 returns $190

+$171 profit

Joaquin Buckley

21-7-0 Freestyle Southpaw 1 loss

SB 2.46

45.5% | 54.5%

Welterweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 11:45 AM AEST

Sean Brady

18-2-0 Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 1 loss

SB 1.55

▼

Model Favourite

Sean Brady

54.5 %

050100

90% CI · 45 – 64 · σ 0.048 · High

Why this pick

Joaquin Buckley eats 1.1 fewer strikes per minute
Sean Brady lands 1.1 more sig strikes per minute
Sean Brady hits 0.50 more takedowns per minute
Sean Brady out-volumes opponents at 14.2 sig/min vs Joaquin Buckley's 13.0
Joaquin Buckley KOs 69% of opponents — Sean Brady has been KO'd in 20% of losses

Method Breakdown

Buckley Brady

KO/TKO 22.6

5.2

Submission 0.0

9.3

Decision 22.9

40.0

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Key Stats career avg

Buckley Brady

SLpM 13.0

14.2

Sig Acc 37%

55%

Str Def 59%

59%

TD/min 0.35

0.84

Finish 69%

60%

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours Buckley

Joaquin Buckley eats 1.1 fewer strikes per minute
02 Striking volume favours Brady

Sean Brady lands 1.1 more sig strikes per minute
03 Takedown volume favours Brady

Sean Brady hits 0.50 more takedowns per minute
04 Control time favours Brady

Sean Brady controls 116% more cage time
05 KO rate favours Buckley

Joaquin Buckley finishes by KO 49% more often
06 Submission rate favours Brady

Sean Brady taps opponents 40% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 11 flagged · 54 markets analysed

Joaquin Buckley wins by DEC
Strong pick

Model 23%

Bookies 15%

EV / $100 +$55

Stake 2.4%

6.75

$24 returns $162

+$138 profit
Sean Brady wins by finish in Round 1
Strong pick

Model 25%

Bookies 17%

EV / $100 +$52

Stake 2.6%

6.00

$26 returns $156

+$130 profit
Joaquin Buckley wins in R3+ or by Decision
Strong pick

Model 32%

Bookies 21%

EV / $100 +$50

Stake 3.4%

4.70

$34 returns $160

+$126 profit
Sean Brady wins by finish in Round 2
Solid edge

Model 19%

Bookies 13%

EV / $100 +$41

Stake 1.6%

7.50

$16 returns $120

+$104 profit
Joaquin Buckley wins by finish in Round 1
Solid edge

Model 21%

Bookies 15%

EV / $100 +$38

Stake 1.7%

6.50

$17 returns $110

+$94 profit
Joaquin Buckley wins by Sub or Decision
Solid edge

Model 23%

Bookies 17%

EV / $100 +$35

Stake 1.8%

5.90

$18 returns $106

+$88 profit
Joaquin Buckley wins by finish in Round 2
Solid edge

Model 16%

Bookies 12%

EV / $100 +$34

Stake 1.1%

8.50

$11 returns $94

+$82 profit
Fight goes to decision
Strong pick

Model 63%

Bookies 49%

EV / $100 +$29

Stake 6.9%

2.05

$69 returns $141

+$72 profit
Sean Brady wins by Decision
Solid edge

Model 40%

Bookies 35%

EV / $100 +$15

Stake 2.0%

2.87

$20 returns $57

+$37 profit
Joaquin Buckley wins by KO or Decision
Strong pick

Model 46%

Bookies 40%

EV / $100 +$14

Stake 2.3%

2.50

$23 returns $58

+$34 profit
Fight reaches Round 3
Strong pick

Model 70%

Bookies 62%

EV / $100 +$13

Stake 5.1%

1.61

$51 returns $82

+$31 profit

Jeremy Stephens

28-20-0 Freestyle Orthodox 7-fight loss streak

SB 4.20

29.7% | 70.3%

Lightweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 11:15 AM AEST

King Green

34-17-1 MMA Orthodox 2-fight win streak

SB 1.23

▼

Model Favourite

King Green

70.3 %

050100

90% CI · 56 – 85 · σ 0.072 · Medium

Why this pick

King Green lands 7.0 more sig strikes per minute
King Green rides a 2-fight longer win streak
King Green comes in on a 7-fight cleaner skid
King Green out-volumes opponents at 16.5 sig/min vs Jeremy Stephens's 9.5
Jeremy Stephens has never been finished in 35 fights

Method Breakdown

Stephens Green

KO/TKO 7.5

29.2

Submission 0.0

5.2

Decision 22.1

35.8

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Key Stats career avg

Stephens Green

SLpM 9.5

16.5

Sig Acc 41%

53%

Str Def 59%

62%

TD/min 0.22

0.21

Finish 40%

41%

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Striking volume favours Green

King Green lands 7.0 more sig strikes per minute
02 Win streak favours Green

King Green rides a 2-fight longer win streak
03 Loss streak favours Green

King Green comes in on a 7-fight cleaner skid
04 Strikes absorbed favours Green

King Green eats 0.1 fewer strikes per minute
05 Control time favours Stephens

Jeremy Stephens controls 17% more cage time
06 Striking accuracy favours Green

King Green is 12% more accurate on the feet

Value Bets · SportsBet 7 flagged · 54 markets analysed

Jeremy Stephens wins by DEC
Strong pick

Model 22%

Bookies 10%

EV / $100 +$121

Stake 3.4%

10.00

$34 returns $340

+$306 profit
King Green wins by finish in Round 1
Strong pick

Model 36%

Bookies 17%

EV / $100 +$114

Stake 5.7%

6.00

$57 returns $342

+$285 profit
Jeremy Stephens wins by Sub or Decision
Strong pick

Model 22%

Bookies 12%

EV / $100 +$88

Stake 2.9%

8.50

$29 returns $246

+$218 profit
King Green wins by finish in Round 3
Solid edge

Model 19%

Bookies 12%

EV / $100 +$60

Stake 2.0%

8.50

$20 returns $170

+$150 profit
Jeremy Stephens wins in R3+ or by Decision
Strong pick

Model 21%

Bookies 13%

EV / $100 +$57

Stake 2.2%

7.50

$22 returns $165

+$143 profit
Jeremy Stephens wins by finish in Round 1
Solid edge

Model 15%

Bookies 11%

EV / $100 +$43

Stake 1.3%

9.50

$13 returns $124

+$110 profit
Jeremy Stephens wins by KO or Decision
Strong pick

Model 30%

Bookies 23%

EV / $100 +$27

Stake 2.1%

4.30

$21 returns $90

+$69 profit

Ozzy Diaz

10-3-0 MMA Orthodox 1 win

SB 8.60

27.3% | 72.7%

Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 10:35 AM AEST

Ateba Gautier

10-1-0 Striker Switch Stance 4-fight win streak

SB 1.07

▼

Model Favourite

Ateba Gautier

72.7 %

050100

90% CI · 15 – 100 · σ 0.087 · Medium

Why this pick

Ateba Gautier eats 13.1 fewer strikes per minute
Ozzy Diaz lands 11.8 more sig strikes per minute
Ateba Gautier rides a 3-fight longer win streak
Ozzy Diaz out-volumes opponents at 19.4 sig/min vs Ateba Gautier's 7.6
Ateba Gautier rides a 4-fight win streak (Ozzy Diaz: 1)

Method Breakdown

Diaz Gautier

KO/TKO 7.0

31.5

Submission 0.9

10.2

Decision 19.5

30.9

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Key Stats career avg

Diaz Gautier

SLpM 19.4

7.6

Sig Acc 53%

41%

Str Def 61%

52%

TD/min 0.00

0.09

Finish 50%

75%

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours Gautier

Ateba Gautier eats 13.1 fewer strikes per minute
02 Striking volume favours Diaz

Ozzy Diaz lands 11.8 more sig strikes per minute
03 Win streak favours Gautier

Ateba Gautier rides a 3-fight longer win streak
04 KO durability favours Gautier

Ateba Gautier has been KO'd 50% less often
05 KO rate favours Gautier

Ateba Gautier finishes by KO 25% more often
06 Finish rate favours Gautier

Ateba Gautier finishes 25% more of their wins

Value Bets · SportsBet 12 flagged · 59 markets analysed

Ozzy Diaz wins by DEC
Strong pick

Model 19%

Bookies 6%

EV / $100 +$212

Stake 3.5%

16.00

$35 returns $560

+$525 profit
Fight goes to Decision
Strong pick

Model 50%

Bookies 17%

EV / $100 +$202

Stake 10.1%

6.00

$101 returns $606

+$505 profit
Ozzy Diaz wins by finish in Round 2
Solid edge

Model 9%

Bookies 3%

EV / $100 +$193

Stake 1.5%

34.00

$15 returns $510

+$495 profit
Ateba Gautier wins by DEC
Strong pick

Model 31%

Bookies 11%

EV / $100 +$186

Stake 5.6%

9.25

$56 returns $518

+$462 profit
Ozzy Diaz wins by Sub or Decision
Strong pick

Model 20%

Bookies 8%

EV / $100 +$154

Stake 3.4%

12.50

$34 returns $425

+$391 profit
Ozzy Diaz wins by finish in Round 1
Strong pick

Model 16%

Bookies 6%

EV / $100 +$148

Stake 2.5%

16.00

$25 returns $400

+$375 profit
Ozzy Diaz wins by KO or Decision
Strong pick

Model 26%

Bookies 11%

EV / $100 +$145

Stake 4.4%

9.25

$44 returns $407

+$363 profit
Fight reaches Round 3
Strong pick

Model 56%

Bookies 24%

EV / $100 +$139

Stake 10.7%

4.25

$107 returns $455

+$348 profit
Ateba Gautier wins by Sub or Decision
Strong pick

Model 41%

Bookies 19%

EV / $100 +$114

Stake 6.8%

5.20

$68 returns $354

+$286 profit
Ozzy Diaz wins in R3+ or by Decision
Strong pick

Model 15%

Bookies 8%

EV / $100 +$92

Stake 2.0%

12.50

$20 returns $250

+$230 profit
Fight reaches Round 2
Strong pick

Model 72%

Bookies 42%

EV / $100 +$70

Stake 12.8%

2.37

$128 returns $303

+$175 profit
Over 2.5 rounds
Strong pick

Model 50%

Bookies 33%

EV / $100 +$51

Stake 6.4%

3.00

$64 returns $192

+$128 profit

Yaroslav Amosov

29-1-0 nan 1 win

SB 1.54

55.5% | 44.5%

Welterweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 10:10 AM AEST

Joel Alvarez

23-3-0 Striker Orthodox 4-fight win streak

SB 2.48

▼

Model Favourite

Yaroslav Amosov

55.5 %

050100

90% CI · 37 – 74 · σ 0.094 · Medium

Why this pick

Yaroslav Amosov eats 5.6 fewer strikes per minute
Joel Alvarez lands 8.4 more sig strikes per minute
Joel Alvarez rides a 3-fight longer win streak
Joel Alvarez out-volumes opponents at 11.2 sig/min vs Yaroslav Amosov's 2.8
Joel Alvarez rides a 4-fight win streak (Yaroslav Amosov: 1)

Method Breakdown

Amosov Alvarez

KO/TKO 11.1

13.0

Submission 23.5

8.6

Decision 20.9

22.9

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Key Stats career avg

Amosov Alvarez

SLpM 2.8

11.2

Sig Acc 47%

55%

Str Def 55%

54%

TD/min 0.31

0.03

Finish 100%

80%

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours Amosov

Yaroslav Amosov eats 5.6 fewer strikes per minute
02 Striking volume favours Alvarez

Joel Alvarez lands 8.4 more sig strikes per minute
03 Win streak favours Alvarez

Joel Alvarez rides a 3-fight longer win streak
04 Submission rate favours Amosov

Yaroslav Amosov taps opponents 70% more often
05 KO rate favours Alvarez

Joel Alvarez finishes by KO 50% more often
06 Takedown volume favours Amosov

Yaroslav Amosov hits 0.28 more takedowns per minute

Value Bets · SportsBet 10 flagged · 59 markets analysed

Yaroslav Amosov wins by finish in Round 2
Strong pick

Model 20%

Bookies 12%

EV / $100 +$70

Stake 2.3%

8.50

$23 returns $196

+$172 profit
Yaroslav Amosov wins by finish in Round 1
Strong pick

Model 27%

Bookies 17%

EV / $100 +$61

Stake 3.1%

6.00

$31 returns $186

+$155 profit
Yaroslav Amosov wins by Submission in R1 or R2
Solid edge

Model 20%

Bookies 13%

EV / $100 +$49

Stake 1.9%

7.50

$19 returns $142

+$124 profit
Joel Alvarez wins by DEC
Strong pick

Model 23%

Bookies 15%

EV / $100 +$49

Stake 2.2%

6.50

$22 returns $143

+$121 profit
Yaroslav Amosov wins by SUB
Strong pick

Model 24%

Bookies 16%

EV / $100 +$47

Stake 2.2%

6.25

$22 returns $138

+$116 profit
Joel Alvarez wins by KO or Decision
Strong pick

Model 36%

Bookies 26%

EV / $100 +$36

Stake 3.3%

3.80

$33 returns $125

+$92 profit
Joel Alvarez wins by finish in Round 2
Solid edge

Model 16%

Bookies 12%

EV / $100 +$36

Stake 1.2%

8.50

$12 returns $102

+$90 profit
Joel Alvarez wins by finish in Round 1
Solid edge

Model 22%

Bookies 17%

EV / $100 +$29

Stake 1.5%

6.00

$15 returns $90

+$75 profit
Joel Alvarez wins in R3+ or by Decision
Solid edge

Model 23%

Bookies 20%

EV / $100 +$17

Stake 1.1%

5.00

$11 returns $55

+$44 profit
Yaroslav Amosov wins by KO or Sub
Solid edge

Model 35%

Bookies 30%

EV / $100 +$14

Stake 1.6%

3.30

$16 returns $53

+$37 profit

Grant Dawson

23-3-1 Switch Stance 1 loss

SB 1.67

64.1% | 35.9%

Lightweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 9:40 AM AEST

Mateusz Rebecki

20-4-0 Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Southpaw 2-fight loss streak

SB 2.22

▼

Model Favourite

Grant Dawson

64.1 %

050100

90% CI · 50 – 78 · σ 0.072 · Medium

Why this pick

Grant Dawson eats 6.7 fewer strikes per minute
Mateusz Rebecki lands 5.2 more sig strikes per minute
Grant Dawson controls 128% more cage time
Mateusz Rebecki out-volumes opponents at 15.1 sig/min vs Grant Dawson's 9.9
Grant Dawson has never been finished in 14 fights

Method Breakdown

Dawson Rebecki

KO/TKO 9.7

8.5

Submission 20.6

4.6

Decision 33.8

22.8

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Key Stats career avg

Dawson Rebecki

SLpM 9.9

15.1

Sig Acc 53%

47%

Str Def 44%

54%

TD/min 0.80

0.59

Finish 57%

43%

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours Dawson

Grant Dawson eats 6.7 fewer strikes per minute
02 Striking volume favours Rebecki

Mateusz Rebecki lands 5.2 more sig strikes per minute
03 Control time favours Dawson

Grant Dawson controls 128% more cage time
04 Takedown volume favours Dawson

Grant Dawson hits 0.21 more takedowns per minute
05 Finish rate favours Dawson

Grant Dawson finishes 14% more of their wins
06 Submission rate favours Dawson

Grant Dawson taps opponents 14% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 11 flagged · 59 markets analysed

Grant Dawson wins by finish in Round 1
Strong pick

Model 26%

Bookies 12%

EV / $100 +$110

Stake 3.9%

8.00

$39 returns $312

+$273 profit
Grant Dawson wins by finish in Round 2
Strong pick

Model 20%

Bookies 10%

EV / $100 +$107

Stake 2.8%

10.50

$28 returns $294

+$266 profit
Grant Dawson wins by finish in Round 3
Strong pick

Model 16%

Bookies 8%

EV / $100 +$90

Stake 2.0%

12.00

$20 returns $240

+$220 profit
Grant Dawson wins by KO or Sub
Strong pick

Model 30%

Bookies 21%

EV / $100 +$43

Stake 2.9%

4.70

$29 returns $136

+$107 profit
Mateusz Rebecki wins by DEC
Strong pick

Model 23%

Bookies 16%

EV / $100 +$42

Stake 2.0%

6.25

$20 returns $125

+$105 profit
Grant Dawson wins by Submission in R2 or R3
Solid edge

Model 12%

Bookies 8%

EV / $100 +$42

Stake 1.0%

12.00

$10 returns $120

+$110 profit
Mateusz Rebecki wins by Sub or Decision
Strong pick

Model 27%

Bookies 20%

EV / $100 +$40

Stake 2.4%

5.10

$24 returns $122

+$98 profit
Grant Dawson wins by SUB
Solid edge

Model 21%

Bookies 15%

EV / $100 +$39

Stake 1.7%

6.75

$17 returns $115

+$98 profit
Fight ends by Submission
Strong pick

Model 25%

Bookies 19%

EV / $100 +$36

Stake 2.0%

5.40

$20 returns $108

+$88 profit
Grant Dawson wins by Submission in R1 or R2
Solid edge

Model 15%

Bookies 12%

EV / $100 +$26

Stake 0.9%

8.25

$9 returns $74

+$65 profit
Mateusz Rebecki wins in R3+ or by Decision
Solid edge

Model 25%

Bookies 21%

EV / $100 +$17

Stake 1.2%

4.75

$12 returns $57

+$45 profit

Jim Miller

38-19-0 Jiu-Jitsu Southpaw 1 loss

SB 3.35

30.5% | 69.5%

Lightweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 9:10 AM AEST

Jared Gordon

21-8-0 Freestyle Orthodox 1 loss

SB 1.33

▼

Model Favourite

Jared Gordon

69.5 %

050100

90% CI · 54 – 85 · σ 0.076 · Medium

Why this pick

Jared Gordon lands 6.9 more sig strikes per minute
Jim Miller eats 1.6 fewer strikes per minute
Jim Miller taps opponents 28% more often
Jared Gordon out-volumes opponents at 14.9 sig/min vs Jim Miller's 8.0
Jim Miller has never been finished in 46 fights

Method Breakdown

Miller Gordon

KO/TKO 5.7

18.3

Submission 8.2

4.2

Decision 16.6

46.9

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Key Stats career avg

Miller Gordon

SLpM 8.0

14.9

Sig Acc 42%

54%

Str Def 57%

56%

TD/min 0.27

0.31

Finish 52%

47%

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Striking volume favours Gordon

Jared Gordon lands 6.9 more sig strikes per minute
02 Strikes absorbed favours Miller

Jim Miller eats 1.6 fewer strikes per minute
03 Submission rate favours Miller

Jim Miller taps opponents 28% more often
04 KO rate favours Gordon

Jared Gordon finishes by KO 24% more often
05 Control time favours Gordon

Jared Gordon controls 33% more cage time
06 KO durability favours Miller

Jim Miller has been KO'd 19% less often

Value Bets · SportsBet 4 flagged · 59 markets analysed

Jared Gordon wins by finish in Round 1
Strong pick

Model 38%

Bookies 17%

EV / $100 +$127

Stake 6.3%

6.00

$64 returns $384

+$320 profit
Jared Gordon wins by finish in Round 2
Strong pick

Model 21%

Bookies 12%

EV / $100 +$82

Stake 2.7%

8.50

$27 returns $230

+$202 profit
Jim Miller wins by finish in Round 1
Solid edge

Model 17%

Bookies 11%

EV / $100 +$58

Stake 1.7%

9.50

$17 returns $162

+$144 profit
Jim Miller wins by Sub or Decision
Solid edge

Model 25%

Bookies 21%

EV / $100 +$18

Stake 1.2%

4.75

$12 returns $57

+$45 profit

Roman Kopylov

14-5-0 Southpaw 2-fight loss streak

SB 2.60

46.3% | 53.7%

Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 8:35 AM AEST

Marco Tulio

14-2-0 Striker Orthodox 1 loss

SB 1.50

▼

Model Favourite

Marco Tulio

53.7 %

050100

90% CI · 44 – 63 · σ 0.047 · High

Why this pick

Marco Tulio eats 11.5 fewer strikes per minute
Marco Tulio lands 4.5 more sig strikes per minute
Marco Tulio finishes by KO 55% more often
Marco Tulio out-volumes opponents at 18.9 sig/min vs Roman Kopylov's 14.4
Roman Kopylov has a 8-fight UFC experience edge (11 vs 3)

Method Breakdown

Kopylov Tulio

KO/TKO 22.8

14.9

Submission 7.1

4.2

Decision 16.4

34.6

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Key Stats career avg

Kopylov Tulio

SLpM 14.4

18.9

Sig Acc 50%

64%

Str Def 52%

62%

TD/min 0.24

0.21

Finish 64%

100%

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours Tulio

Marco Tulio eats 11.5 fewer strikes per minute
02 Striking volume favours Tulio

Marco Tulio lands 4.5 more sig strikes per minute
03 KO rate favours Tulio

Marco Tulio finishes by KO 55% more often
04 Takedown defence favours Kopylov

Roman Kopylov stuffs 89% more incoming takedowns
05 Finish rate favours Tulio

Marco Tulio finishes 36% more of their wins
06 KO durability favours Kopylov

Roman Kopylov has been KO'd 33% less often

Value Bets · SportsBet 8 flagged · 57 markets analysed

Roman Kopylov wins by KO/TKO
Strong pick

Model 23%

Bookies 4%

EV / $100 +$423

Stake 4.8%

23.00

$48 returns $1104

+$1056 profit
Roman Kopylov wins by finish in Round 1
Strong pick

Model 24%

Bookies 12%

EV / $100 +$102

Stake 3.4%

8.50

$34 returns $289

+$255 profit
Roman Kopylov wins by finish in Round 2
Solid edge

Model 16%

Bookies 10%

EV / $100 +$55

Stake 1.5%

10.00

$15 returns $150

+$135 profit
Roman Kopylov wins by KO or Sub
Strong pick

Model 30%

Bookies 20%

EV / $100 +$46

Stake 3.0%

4.90

$30 returns $147

+$117 profit
Marco Tulio wins by DEC
Strong pick

Model 35%

Bookies 24%

EV / $100 +$45

Stake 3.5%

4.20

$35 returns $147

+$112 profit
Marco Tulio wins by finish in Round 1
Strong pick

Model 28%

Bookies 20%

EV / $100 +$38

Stake 2.4%

5.00

$24 returns $120

+$96 profit
Roman Kopylov wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2
Solid edge

Model 19%

Bookies 14%

EV / $100 +$35

Stake 1.5%

7.00

$15 returns $105

+$90 profit
Fight goes to decision
Strong pick

Model 51%

Bookies 43%

EV / $100 +$18

Stake 3.4%

2.31

$34 returns $79

+$45 profit

Pat Sabatini

21-5-0 Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 3-fight win streak

SB 1.55

45.7% | 54.3%

Featherweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 8:10 AM AEST

William Gomis

15-3-0 Southpaw 1 win

SB 2.47

▼

Model Favourite

William Gomis

54.3 %

050100

90% CI · 43 – 66 · σ 0.057 · High

Why this pick

Pat Sabatini eats 6.0 fewer strikes per minute
William Gomis lands 6.8 more sig strikes per minute
Pat Sabatini hits 0.58 more takedowns per minute
William Gomis out-volumes opponents at 11.1 sig/min vs Pat Sabatini's 4.3
Pat Sabatini rides a 3-fight win streak (William Gomis: 1)

Method Breakdown

Sabatini Gomis

KO/TKO 5.2

17.6

Submission 17.4

4.3

Decision 23.1

32.4

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Key Stats career avg

Sabatini Gomis

SLpM 4.3

11.1

Sig Acc 60%

50%

Str Def 51%

61%

TD/min 0.76

0.18

Finish 50%

17%

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours Sabatini

Pat Sabatini eats 6.0 fewer strikes per minute
02 Striking volume favours Gomis

William Gomis lands 6.8 more sig strikes per minute
03 Takedown volume favours Sabatini

Pat Sabatini hits 0.58 more takedowns per minute
04 Win streak favours Sabatini

Pat Sabatini rides a 2-fight longer win streak
05 Control time favours Sabatini

Pat Sabatini controls 123% more cage time
06 Finish rate favours Sabatini

Pat Sabatini finishes 33% more of their wins

Value Bets · SportsBet 7 flagged · 59 markets analysed

William Gomis wins by finish in Round 1
Strong pick

Model 26%

Bookies 12%

EV / $100 +$119

Stake 4.0%

8.50

$40 returns $340

+$300 profit
William Gomis wins by finish in Round 2
Strong pick

Model 18%

Bookies 10%

EV / $100 +$92

Stake 2.4%

10.50

$24 returns $252

+$228 profit
William Gomis wins by Sub or Decision
Strong pick

Model 37%

Bookies 27%

EV / $100 +$37

Stake 3.4%

3.75

$34 returns $128

+$94 profit
William Gomis wins by DEC
Strong pick

Model 32%

Bookies 24%

EV / $100 +$33

Stake 2.6%

4.10

$26 returns $107

+$81 profit
Pat Sabatini wins by finish in Round 1
Solid edge

Model 22%

Bookies 17%

EV / $100 +$30

Stake 1.5%

6.00

$15 returns $90

+$75 profit
William Gomis wins by KO or Decision
Strong pick

Model 50%

Bookies 39%

EV / $100 +$27

Stake 4.4%

2.55

$44 returns $112

+$68 profit
William Gomis wins in R3+ or by Decision
Strong pick

Model 35%

Bookies 28%

EV / $100 +$25

Stake 2.4%

3.60

$24 returns $86

+$62 profit

Djorden Santos

11-2-0 Orthodox 1 win

SB 6.00

23.5% | 76.5%

Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 7:40 AM AEST

Baisangur Susurkaev

11-0-0 Striker Orthodox 2-fight win streak

SB 1.13

▼

Model Favourite

Baisangur Susurkaev

76.5 %

050100

90% CI · 22 – 100 · σ 0.057 · High

Why this pick

Baisangur Susurkaev eats 2.3 fewer strikes per minute
Baisangur Susurkaev hits 1.00 more takedowns per minute
Baisangur Susurkaev lands 1.4 more sig strikes per minute
Baisangur Susurkaev out-volumes opponents at 24.4 sig/min vs Djorden Santos's 23.0
Djorden Santos has never been finished in 2 fights

Method Breakdown

Santos Susurkaev

KO/TKO 6.8

18.3

Submission 4.0

19.7

Decision 12.7

38.5

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Key Stats career avg

Santos Susurkaev

SLpM 23.0

24.4

Sig Acc 41%

59%

Str Def 47%

54%

TD/min 0.10

1.10

Finish 0%

100%

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours Susurkaev

Baisangur Susurkaev eats 2.3 fewer strikes per minute
02 Takedown volume favours Susurkaev

Baisangur Susurkaev hits 1.00 more takedowns per minute
03 Striking volume favours Susurkaev

Baisangur Susurkaev lands 1.4 more sig strikes per minute
04 Finish rate favours Susurkaev

Baisangur Susurkaev finishes 100% more of their wins
05 Control time favours Susurkaev

Baisangur Susurkaev controls 155% more cage time
06 KO rate favours Susurkaev

Baisangur Susurkaev finishes by KO 50% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 13 flagged · 59 markets analysed

Djorden Santos wins by DEC
Solid edge

Model 13%

Bookies 8%

EV / $100 +$65

Stake 1.4%

13.00

$14 returns $182

+$168 profit
Djorden Santos wins by Sub or Decision
Solid edge

Model 17%

Bookies 11%

EV / $100 +$59

Stake 1.7%

9.50

$17 returns $162

+$144 profit
Djorden Santos wins in R3+ or by Decision
Solid edge

Model 15%

Bookies 10%

EV / $100 +$54

Stake 1.5%

10.00

$15 returns $150

+$135 profit
Baisangur Susurkaev wins by finish in Round 3
Solid edge

Model 22%

Bookies 15%

EV / $100 +$44

Stake 2.0%

6.50

$20 returns $130

+$110 profit
Fight goes to decision
Strong pick

Model 51%

Bookies 37%

EV / $100 +$37

Stake 5.5%

2.67

$55 returns $147

+$92 profit
Baisangur Susurkaev wins by finish in Round 1
Strong pick

Model 39%

Bookies 29%

EV / $100 +$36

Stake 3.6%

3.50

$36 returns $126

+$90 profit
Baisangur Susurkaev wins by Sub or Decision
Strong pick

Model 58%

Bookies 46%

EV / $100 +$27

Stake 5.7%

2.18

$57 returns $124

+$67 profit
Djorden Santos wins by KO or Decision
Solid edge

Model 20%

Bookies 15%

EV / $100 +$27

Stake 1.2%

6.50

$12 returns $78

+$66 profit
Fight ends by Submission
Solid edge

Model 24%

Bookies 19%

EV / $100 +$26

Stake 1.5%

5.30

$15 returns $80

+$64 profit
Fight reaches Round 3
Strong pick

Model 65%

Bookies 53%

EV / $100 +$24

Stake 6.7%

1.90

$67 returns $127

+$60 profit
Baisangur Susurkaev wins by SUB
Solid edge

Model 20%

Bookies 16%

EV / $100 +$23

Stake 1.1%

6.25

$11 returns $69

+$58 profit
Baisangur Susurkaev wins by Decision
Strong pick

Model 38%

Bookies 31%

EV / $100 +$23

Stake 2.6%

3.20

$26 returns $83

+$57 profit
Baisangur Susurkaev wins in R3+ or by Decision
Strong pick

Model 50%

Bookies 44%

EV / $100 +$12

Stake 2.5%

2.25

$25 returns $56

+$31 profit

Clayton Carpenter

8-2-0 Orthodox 2-fight loss streak

SB 2.52

46.1% | 53.9%

Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 7:10 AM AEST

Jose Ochoa

8-2-0 MMA Southpaw 1 loss

SB 1.53

▼

Model Favourite

Jose Ochoa

53.9 %

050100

90% CI · 45 – 63 · σ 0.044 · High

Why this pick

Clayton Carpenter eats 3.5 fewer strikes per minute
Jose Ochoa lands 4.4 more sig strikes per minute
Clayton Carpenter taps opponents 50% more often
Jose Ochoa out-volumes opponents at 10.1 sig/min vs Clayton Carpenter's 5.7
Jose Ochoa has never been finished in 3 fights

Method Breakdown

Carpenter Ochoa

KO/TKO 10.8

10.3

Submission 15.1

5.6

Decision 20.3

38.0

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Key Stats career avg

Carpenter Ochoa

SLpM 5.7

10.1

Sig Acc 55%

38%

Str Def 52%

61%

TD/min 0.20

0.10

Finish 75%

33%

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours Carpenter

Clayton Carpenter eats 3.5 fewer strikes per minute
02 Striking volume favours Ochoa

Jose Ochoa lands 4.4 more sig strikes per minute
03 Submission rate favours Carpenter

Clayton Carpenter taps opponents 50% more often
04 Finish rate favours Carpenter

Clayton Carpenter finishes 42% more of their wins
05 KO rate favours Ochoa

Jose Ochoa finishes by KO 33% more often
06 Control time favours Carpenter

Clayton Carpenter controls 50% more cage time

Value Bets · SportsBet 9 flagged · 59 markets analysed

Clayton Carpenter wins by finish in Round 1
Strong pick

Model 22%

Bookies 11%

EV / $100 +$105

Stake 3.1%

9.50

$31 returns $294

+$264 profit
Clayton Carpenter wins by finish in Round 2
Solid edge

Model 16%

Bookies 9%

EV / $100 +$76

Stake 1.9%

11.00

$19 returns $209

+$190 profit
Jose Ochoa wins by finish in Round 2
Solid edge

Model 19%

Bookies 12%

EV / $100 +$59

Stake 1.9%

8.50

$20 returns $170

+$150 profit
Clayton Carpenter wins by KO or Sub
Strong pick

Model 26%

Bookies 17%

EV / $100 +$53

Stake 2.7%

5.90

$27 returns $159

+$132 profit
Jose Ochoa wins by finish in Round 1
Strong pick

Model 25%

Bookies 17%

EV / $100 +$51

Stake 2.5%

6.00

$25 returns $150

+$125 profit
Clayton Carpenter wins by KO/TKO
Solid edge

Model 11%

Bookies 8%

EV / $100 +$40

Stake 0.8%

13.00

$8 returns $104

+$96 profit
Clayton Carpenter wins by SUB
Solid edge

Model 15%

Bookies 11%

EV / $100 +$36

Stake 1.1%

9.00

$11 returns $99

+$88 profit
Clayton Carpenter wins by Submission in R1 or R2
Solid edge

Model 12%

Bookies 9%

EV / $100 +$35

Stake 0.9%

11.00

$9 returns $99

+$90 profit
Fight ends by Submission
Solid edge

Model 21%

Bookies 17%

EV / $100 +$24

Stake 1.2%

6.00

$12 returns $72

+$60 profit

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa

2026

MAY

UPCOMING CARD

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa

Meta APEX, Las Vegas, USA

Bouts

Value Bouts

Arnold Allen

20-4-0 MMA Southpaw 1 loss

SB 1.67

46.6% | 53.4%

Featherweight 5 rds
⏱ Sun 12:15 PM AEST

Melquizael Costa

26-7-0 MMA Southpaw 6-fight win streak

SB 2.22

▼

Model Favourite

Melquizael Costa

53.4 %

050100

90% CI · 43 – 64 · σ 0.052 · High

Why this pick

Melquizael Costa eats 2.7 fewer strikes per minute
Melquizael Costa rides a 6-fight longer win streak
Arnold Allen lands 0.5 more sig strikes per minute
Melquizael Costa rides a 6-fight win streak (Arnold Allen: 0)
Arnold Allen has never been finished in 14 fights

Method Breakdown

Allen Costa

KO/TKO 10.8

19.5

Submission 11.8

8.5

Decision 23.9

25.4

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Key Stats career avg

Allen Costa

SLpM 11.6

11.1

Sig Acc 42%

50%

Str Def 60%

55%

TD/min 0.19

0.34

Finish 29%

67%

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours Costa

Melquizael Costa eats 2.7 fewer strikes per minute
02 Win streak favours Costa

Melquizael Costa rides a 6-fight longer win streak
03 Striking volume favours Allen

Arnold Allen lands 0.5 more sig strikes per minute
04 Finish rate favours Costa

Melquizael Costa finishes 38% more of their wins
05 Takedown volume favours Costa

Melquizael Costa hits 0.15 more takedowns per minute
06 KO rate favours Costa

Melquizael Costa finishes by KO 19% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 16 flagged · 49 markets analysed

Arnold Allen wins by Submission in R3
Solid edge

Model 5%

Bookies 1%

EV / $100 +$261

Stake 0.9%

71.00

$9 returns $639

+$630 profit
Arnold Allen wins by Submission in R2 or R3
Solid edge

Model 9%

Bookies 3%

EV / $100 +$195

Stake 1.5%

34.00

$15 returns $510

+$495 profit
Melquizael Costa wins by finish in Round 3
Strong pick

Model 23%

Bookies 8%

EV / $100 +$175

Stake 4.0%

12.00

$40 returns $480

+$440 profit
Fight ends by Submission
Strong pick

Model 20%

Bookies 8%

EV / $100 +$155

Stake 3.4%

12.50

$34 returns $425

+$391 profit
Arnold Allen wins by SUB
Solid edge

Model 12%

Bookies 5%

EV / $100 +$149

Stake 1.9%

21.00

$19 returns $399

+$380 profit
Arnold Allen wins by finish in Round 3
Strong pick

Model 20%

Bookies 10%

EV / $100 +$110

Stake 2.9%

10.50

$29 returns $304

+$276 profit
Melquizael Costa wins by SUB
Solid edge

Model 9%

Bookies 4%

EV / $100 +$96

Stake 1.1%

23.00

$11 returns $253

+$242 profit
Fight ends by finish in Round 3
Strong pick

Model 22%

Bookies 11%

EV / $100 +$90

Stake 2.9%

8.75

$29 returns $254

+$225 profit
Melquizael Costa wins by finish in Round 2
Solid edge

Model 16%

Bookies 10%

EV / $100 +$62

Stake 1.7%

10.00

$17 returns $170

+$153 profit
Melquizael Costa wins by KO/TKO in R3
Solid edge

Model 8%

Bookies 5%

EV / $100 +$59

Stake 0.8%

19.00

$8 returns $152

+$144 profit
Melquizael Costa wins in R3+ or by Decision
Strong pick

Model 45%

Bookies 30%

EV / $100 +$51

Stake 5.5%

3.35

$55 returns $184

+$129 profit
Arnold Allen wins by finish in Round 2
Solid edge

Model 14%

Bookies 10%

EV / $100 +$41

Stake 1.1%

10.00

$12 returns $120

+$108 profit
Melquizael Costa wins by KO or Sub
Solid edge

Model 28%

Bookies 22%

EV / $100 +$26

Stake 1.9%

4.50

$19 returns $86

+$66 profit
Melquizael Costa wins by Sub or Decision
Solid edge

Model 34%

Bookies 29%

EV / $100 +$19

Stake 1.9%

3.50

$19 returns $66

+$48 profit
Fight reaches Round 2
Strong pick

Model 100%

Bookies 88%

EV / $100 +$13

Stake 24.0%

1.14

$240 returns $274

+$34 profit
Fight reaches Round 3
Strong pick

Model 85%

Bookies 75%

EV / $100 +$13

Stake 9.9%

1.34

$99 returns $133

+$34 profit

Dooho Choi

16-4-1 Striker Orthodox 2-fight win streak

46.9% | 53.1%

Featherweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 17 May · 10:00 AM AEST

Daniel Santos

14-2-0 Muay Thai Orthodox 4-fight win streak

▼

Model Favourite

Daniel Santos

53.1 %

050100

90% CI · 44 – 62 · σ 0.045 · High

Why this pick

Dooho Choi eats 4.8 fewer strikes per minute
Daniel Santos lands 2.4 more sig strikes per minute
Daniel Santos rides a 2-fight longer win streak
Daniel Santos out-volumes opponents at 14.3 sig/min vs Dooho Choi's 11.9
Daniel Santos rides a 4-fight win streak (Dooho Choi: 2)

Method Breakdown

Choi Santos

KO/TKO 20.1

18.7

Submission 6.4

4.2

Decision 20.4

30.2

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Key Stats career avg

Choi Santos

SLpM 11.9

14.3

Sig Acc 56%

41%

Str Def 56%

51%

TD/min 0.24

0.60

Finish 78%

40%

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours Choi

Dooho Choi eats 4.8 fewer strikes per minute
02 Striking volume favours Santos

Daniel Santos lands 2.4 more sig strikes per minute
03 Win streak favours Santos

Daniel Santos rides a 2-fight longer win streak
04 Takedown volume favours Santos

Daniel Santos hits 0.36 more takedowns per minute
05 KO rate favours Choi

Dooho Choi finishes by KO 38% more often
06 Finish rate favours Choi

Dooho Choi finishes 38% more of their wins

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Malcolm Wellmaker

10-1-0 Striker Switch Stance 1 loss

49.9% | 50.1%

Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 17 May · 10:00 AM AEST

Juan Diaz

1-0-0 nan

▼

Model Favourite

Juan Diaz

50.1 %

050100

90% CI · 37 – 64 · σ 0.067 · High

Why this pick

Juan Diaz comes in on a 1-fight cleaner skid
Malcolm Wellmaker out-volumes opponents at 11.2 sig/min vs Juan Diaz's 0.0
Malcolm Wellmaker has never been finished in 3 fights

Method Breakdown

Wellmaker Diaz

KO/TKO 22.8

16.6

Submission 5.7

13.8

Decision 21.4

19.7

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Key Stats career avg

Wellmaker Diaz

SLpM 11.2

0.0

Sig Acc 55%

Str Def 52%

TD/min 0.00

0.00

Finish 67%

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Loss streak favours Diaz

Juan Diaz comes in on a 1-fight cleaner skid

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Modestas Bukauskas

19-7-0 Kickboxer Switch Stance 1 loss

39.0% | 61.0%

Light Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 17 May · 10:00 AM AEST

Rodolfo Bellato

13-3-1 MMA Orthodox 1 win

▼

Model Favourite

Rodolfo Bellato

61.0 %

050100

90% CI · 51 – 71 · σ 0.052 · High

Why this pick

Modestas Bukauskas eats 2.8 fewer strikes per minute
Rodolfo Bellato lands 3.3 more sig strikes per minute
Rodolfo Bellato rides a 1-fight longer win streak
Rodolfo Bellato out-volumes opponents at 11.5 sig/min vs Modestas Bukauskas's 8.2
Rodolfo Bellato has never been finished in 5 fights

Method Breakdown

Bukauskas Bellato

KO/TKO 11.1

32.3

Submission 3.5

3.7

Decision 24.4

25.0

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Key Stats career avg

Bukauskas Bellato

SLpM 8.2

11.5

Sig Acc 43%

59%

Str Def 50%

47%

TD/min 0.05

0.23

Finish 64%

40%

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours Bukauskas

Modestas Bukauskas eats 2.8 fewer strikes per minute
02 Striking volume favours Bellato

Rodolfo Bellato lands 3.3 more sig strikes per minute
03 Win streak favours Bellato

Rodolfo Bellato rides a 1-fight longer win streak
04 Takedown volume favours Bellato

Rodolfo Bellato hits 0.18 more takedowns per minute
05 Finish rate favours Bukauskas

Modestas Bukauskas finishes 24% more of their wins
06 KO durability favours Bellato

Rodolfo Bellato has been KO'd 36% less often

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Benardo Sopaj

12-3-0 MMA Orthodox 1 win

44.6% | 55.4%

3 rds

Timmy Cuamba

2-2-0 Orthodox 2-fight win streak

▼

Model Favourite

Timmy Cuamba

55.4 %

050100

90% CI · 44 – 67 · σ 0.056 · High

Why this pick

Timmy Cuamba eats 5.5 fewer strikes per minute
Benardo Sopaj lands 5.2 more sig strikes per minute
Timmy Cuamba rides a 1-fight longer win streak
Benardo Sopaj out-volumes opponents at 13.0 sig/min vs Timmy Cuamba's 7.8
Timmy Cuamba has never been finished in 4 fights

Method Breakdown

Sopaj Cuamba

KO/TKO 15.9

23.1

Submission 2.7

5.2

Decision 26.0

27.1

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Key Stats career avg

Sopaj Cuamba

SLpM 13.0

7.8

Sig Acc 56%

48%

Str Def 50%

59%

TD/min 0.52

0.32

Finish 50%

25%

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours Cuamba

Timmy Cuamba eats 5.5 fewer strikes per minute
02 Striking volume favours Sopaj

Benardo Sopaj lands 5.2 more sig strikes per minute
03 Win streak favours Cuamba

Timmy Cuamba rides a 1-fight longer win streak
04 Takedown volume favours Sopaj

Benardo Sopaj hits 0.20 more takedowns per minute
05 KO durability favours Cuamba

Timmy Cuamba has been KO'd 50% less often
06 KO rate favours Sopaj

Benardo Sopaj finishes by KO 25% more often

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Nicolas Dalby

24-6-1 MMA Orthodox 1 win

39.9% | 60.1%

Welterweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 17 May · 7:00 AM AEST

Jeremiah Wells

13-4-1 Striker Switch Stance 1 win

▼

Model Favourite

Jeremiah Wells

60.1 %

050100

90% CI · 48 – 72 · σ 0.062 · High

Why this pick

Jeremiah Wells eats 6.4 fewer strikes per minute
Nicolas Dalby lands 4.3 more sig strikes per minute
Jeremiah Wells hits 0.42 more takedowns per minute
Nicolas Dalby out-volumes opponents at 11.2 sig/min vs Jeremiah Wells's 6.8
Nicolas Dalby has never been finished in 15 fights

Method Breakdown

Dalby Wells

KO/TKO 8.2

6.6

Submission 1.4

4.4

Decision 30.4

49.2

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Key Stats career avg

Dalby Wells

SLpM 11.2

6.8

Sig Acc 44%

46%

Str Def 52%

48%

TD/min 0.17

0.59

Finish 13%

57%

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours Wells

Jeremiah Wells eats 6.4 fewer strikes per minute
02 Striking volume favours Dalby

Nicolas Dalby lands 4.3 more sig strikes per minute
03 Takedown volume favours Wells

Jeremiah Wells hits 0.42 more takedowns per minute
04 Control time favours Wells

Jeremiah Wells controls 88% more cage time
05 Finish rate favours Wells

Jeremiah Wells finishes 44% more of their wins
06 KO rate favours Wells

Jeremiah Wells finishes by KO 15% more often

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Tuco Tokkos

11-5-0 Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 1 win

57.9% | 42.1%

Light Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 17 May · 7:00 AM AEST

Ivan Erslan

14-6-0 Boxing Orthodox 3-fight loss streak

▼

Model Favourite

Tuco Tokkos

57.9 %

050100

90% CI · 49 – 67 · σ 0.044 · High

Why this pick

Tuco Tokkos eats 4.8 fewer strikes per minute
Ivan Erslan lands 2.9 more sig strikes per minute
Tuco Tokkos hits 0.53 more takedowns per minute
Ivan Erslan out-volumes opponents at 6.4 sig/min vs Tuco Tokkos's 3.5
Model uncertainty: ±4pp on the win probability

Method Breakdown

Tokkos Erslan

KO/TKO 7.7

12.3

Submission 21.6

5.0

Decision 28.6

24.8

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Key Stats career avg

Tokkos Erslan

SLpM 3.5

6.4

Sig Acc 40%

46%

Str Def 48%

54%

TD/min 0.61

0.08

Finish 67%

33%

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours Tokkos

Tuco Tokkos eats 4.8 fewer strikes per minute
02 Striking volume favours Erslan

Ivan Erslan lands 2.9 more sig strikes per minute
03 Takedown volume favours Tokkos

Tuco Tokkos hits 0.53 more takedowns per minute
04 Win streak favours Tokkos

Tuco Tokkos rides a 1-fight longer win streak
05 Finish rate favours Tokkos

Tuco Tokkos finishes 33% more of their wins
06 Submission rate favours Tokkos

Tuco Tokkos taps opponents 33% more often

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Trey Ogden

18-7-0 Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 1 loss

50.9% | 49.1%

Lightweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 17 May · 7:00 AM AEST

Tommy Gantt

1-0-0 Orthodox

▼

Model Favourite

Tommy Gantt

49.1 %

050100

90% CI · 45 – 53 · σ 0.019 · High

Why this pick

Tommy Gantt comes in on a 1-fight cleaner skid
Trey Ogden out-volumes opponents at 9.9 sig/min vs Tommy Gantt's 0.0
Trey Ogden has never been finished in 7 fights

Method Breakdown

Ogden Gantt

KO/TKO 10.4

9.1

Submission 11.3

9.1

Decision 29.1

30.9

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Key Stats career avg

Ogden Gantt

SLpM 9.9

0.0

Sig Acc 50%

Str Def 56%

TD/min 0.39

0.00

Finish 0%

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Loss streak favours Gantt

Tommy Gantt comes in on a 1-fight cleaner skid

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Ketlen Vieira

15-5-0 Judo Orthodox 1 loss

35.2% | 64.8%

W Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 17 May · 7:00 AM AEST

Jacqueline Cavalcanti

10-1-0 Striker Orthodox 5-fight win streak

▼

Model Favourite

Jacqueline Cavalcanti

64.8 %

050100

90% CI · 57 – 73 · σ 0.039 · High

Why this pick

Jacqueline Cavalcanti lands 8.4 more sig strikes per minute
Jacqueline Cavalcanti eats 2.1 fewer strikes per minute
Jacqueline Cavalcanti rides a 5-fight longer win streak
Jacqueline Cavalcanti out-volumes opponents at 17.0 sig/min vs Ketlen Vieira's 8.6
Jacqueline Cavalcanti rides a 5-fight win streak (Ketlen Vieira: 0)

Method Breakdown

Vieira Cavalcanti

KO/TKO 8.2

16.9

Submission 6.5

2.9

Decision 20.5

45.0

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Key Stats career avg

Vieira Cavalcanti

SLpM 8.6

17.0

Sig Acc 41%

47%

Str Def 50%

69%

TD/min 0.27

0.00

Finish 14%

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Striking volume favours Cavalcanti

Jacqueline Cavalcanti lands 8.4 more sig strikes per minute
02 Strikes absorbed favours Cavalcanti

Jacqueline Cavalcanti eats 2.1 fewer strikes per minute
03 Win streak favours Cavalcanti

Jacqueline Cavalcanti rides a 5-fight longer win streak
04 Control time favours Vieira

Ketlen Vieira controls 89% more cage time
05 Takedown volume favours Vieira

Ketlen Vieira hits 0.27 more takedowns per minute
06 Striking defence favours Cavalcanti

Jacqueline Cavalcanti avoids 18% more incoming strikes

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Cody Brundage

11-9-1 Wrestler Orthodox 4-fight loss streak

45.0% | 55.0%

Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 17 May · 7:00 AM AEST

Andre Petroski

13-6-0 Freestyle Switch Stance 2-fight loss streak

▼

Model Favourite

Andre Petroski

55.0 %

050100

90% CI · 41 – 69 · σ 0.069 · High

Why this pick

Cody Brundage eats 1.6 fewer strikes per minute
Andre Petroski lands 3.1 more sig strikes per minute
Andre Petroski hits 0.35 more takedowns per minute
Andre Petroski out-volumes opponents at 8.3 sig/min vs Cody Brundage's 5.2
Cody Brundage has never been finished in 14 fights

Method Breakdown

Brundage Petroski

KO/TKO 10.2

9.7

Submission 6.0

19.5

Decision 28.7

25.9

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Key Stats career avg

Brundage Petroski

SLpM 5.2

8.3

Sig Acc 47%

49%

Str Def 53%

53%

TD/min 0.27

0.62

Finish 57%

50%

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours Brundage

Cody Brundage eats 1.6 fewer strikes per minute
02 Striking volume favours Petroski

Andre Petroski lands 3.1 more sig strikes per minute
03 Takedown volume favours Petroski

Andre Petroski hits 0.35 more takedowns per minute
04 Control time favours Petroski

Andre Petroski controls 72% more cage time
05 Takedown defence favours Petroski

Andre Petroski stuffs 17% more incoming takedowns
06 Submission rate favours Petroski

Andre Petroski taps opponents 10% more often

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Alice Ardelean

11-7-0 Striker Orthodox 2-fight win streak

47.5% | 52.5%

W Strawweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 17 May · 7:00 AM AEST

Polyana Viana

13-8-0 Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 3-fight loss streak

▼

Model Favourite

Polyana Viana

52.5 %

050100

90% CI · 42 – 63 · σ 0.053 · High

Why this pick

Polyana Viana eats 9.9 fewer strikes per minute
Alice Ardelean lands 15.8 more sig strikes per minute
Alice Ardelean rides a 2-fight longer win streak
Alice Ardelean out-volumes opponents at 22.1 sig/min vs Polyana Viana's 6.3
Alice Ardelean has never been finished in 4 fights

Method Breakdown

Ardelean Viana

KO/TKO 20.0

10.3

Submission 2.8

14.7

Decision 24.6

27.6

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Key Stats career avg

Ardelean Viana

SLpM 22.1

6.3

Sig Acc 46%

40%

Str Def 62%

53%

TD/min 0.20

0.12

Finish 0%

73%

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours Viana

Polyana Viana eats 9.9 fewer strikes per minute
02 Striking volume favours Ardelean

Alice Ardelean lands 15.8 more sig strikes per minute
03 Win streak favours Ardelean

Alice Ardelean rides a 2-fight longer win streak
04 Finish rate favours Viana

Polyana Viana finishes 73% more of their wins
05 Takedown defence favours Ardelean

Alice Ardelean stuffs 51% more incoming takedowns
06 Submission rate favours Viana

Polyana Viana taps opponents 27% more often

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Daniel Barez

17-7-0 Freestyle Orthodox 1 loss

45.7% | 54.3%

Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 17 May · 7:00 AM AEST

Luis Gurule

10-3-0 Orthodox 3-fight loss streak

▼

Model Favourite

Luis Gurule

54.3 %

050100

90% CI · 46 – 62 · σ 0.040 · High

Why this pick

Luis Gurule eats 2.1 fewer strikes per minute
Luis Gurule lands 0.4 more sig strikes per minute
Luis Gurule finishes by KO 33% more often
Luis Gurule out-volumes opponents at 10.7 sig/min vs Daniel Barez's 10.2
Model uncertainty: ±4pp on the win probability

Method Breakdown

Barez Gurule

KO/TKO 13.2

17.1

Submission 7.8

4.0

Decision 24.8

33.1

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Key Stats career avg

Barez Gurule

SLpM 10.2

10.7

Sig Acc 49%

34%

Str Def 49%

60%

TD/min 0.09

0.17

Finish 67%

33%

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours Gurule

Luis Gurule eats 2.1 fewer strikes per minute
02 Striking volume favours Gurule

Luis Gurule lands 0.4 more sig strikes per minute
03 KO rate favours Gurule

Luis Gurule finishes by KO 33% more often
04 Finish rate favours Barez

Daniel Barez finishes 33% more of their wins
05 KO durability favours Barez

Daniel Barez has been KO'd 33% less often
06 Sub defence favours Gurule

Luis Gurule has been submitted 67% less often

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Nicolle Caliari

8-4-0 MMA Orthodox 2-fight loss streak

46.6% | 53.4%

W Strawweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 17 May · 7:00 AM AEST

Shauna Bannon

7-2-0 MMA Switch Stance 1 loss

▼

Model Favourite

Shauna Bannon

53.4 %

050100

90% CI · 44 – 63 · σ 0.049 · High

Why this pick

Shauna Bannon eats 20.3 fewer strikes per minute
Nicolle Caliari lands 2.4 more sig strikes per minute
Nicolle Caliari hits 0.62 more takedowns per minute
Nicolle Caliari out-volumes opponents at 15.2 sig/min vs Shauna Bannon's 12.8
Model uncertainty: ±5pp on the win probability

Method Breakdown

Caliari Bannon

KO/TKO 9.2

10.5

Submission 5.4

14.9

Decision 32.0

28.0

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Key Stats career avg

Caliari Bannon

SLpM 15.2

12.8

Sig Acc 37%

43%

Str Def 55%

46%

TD/min 0.62

0.00

Finish 50%

50%

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours Bannon

Shauna Bannon eats 20.3 fewer strikes per minute
02 Striking volume favours Caliari

Nicolle Caliari lands 2.4 more sig strikes per minute
03 Takedown volume favours Caliari

Nicolle Caliari hits 0.62 more takedowns per minute
04 KO rate favours Caliari

Nicolle Caliari finishes by KO 50% more often
05 Control time favours Caliari

Nicolle Caliari controls 56% more cage time
06 KO durability favours Bannon

Shauna Bannon has been KO'd 50% less often

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UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo

2026

MAY

UPCOMING CARD

UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo

Galaxy Arena, Cotai, Macau

Bouts

Alex Perez

26-10-0 Freestyle Orthodox 1 win

51.5% | 48.5%

3 rds

nan Sumudaerji

Southpaw

▼

Model Favourite

nan Sumudaerji

48.5 %

050100

90% CI · 38 – 59 · σ 0.052 · High

Why this pick

Alex Perez rides a 1-fight longer win streak
Alex Perez out-volumes opponents at 9.9 sig/min vs Sumudaerji's 0.0
Alex Perez has a 14-fight UFC experience edge (14 vs 0)

Method Breakdown

Perez Sumudaerji

KO/TKO 7.6

13.9

Submission 21.4

16.0

Decision 22.4

18.6

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Key Stats career avg

Perez Sumudaerji

SLpM 9.9

0.0

Sig Acc 47%

Str Def 60%

TD/min 0.34

0.00

Finish 79%

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Win streak favours Perez

Alex Perez rides a 1-fight longer win streak

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nan Aoriqileng

Orthodox

47.7% | 52.3%

3 rds

Cody Haddon

8-1-0 MMA Orthodox 1 win

▼

Model Favourite

Cody Haddon

52.3 %

050100

90% CI · 42 – 62 · σ 0.050 · High

Why this pick

Cody Haddon rides a 1-fight longer win streak
Cody Haddon out-volumes opponents at 28.0 sig/min vs Aoriqileng's 0.0
Cody Haddon has never been finished in 1 fights

Method Breakdown

Aoriqileng Haddon

KO/TKO 8.2

19.8

Submission 15.3

6.8

Decision 24.2

25.8

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Key Stats career avg

Aoriqileng Haddon

SLpM 0.0

28.0

Sig Acc 0%

50%

Str Def 0%

61%

TD/min 0.00

0.40

Finish 0%

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Win streak favours Haddon

Cody Haddon rides a 1-fight longer win streak

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Angela Hill

18-16-0 Muay Thai Orthodox 2-fight loss streak

56.1% | 43.9%

3 rds

Xiong Jingnan

nan

▼

Model Favourite

Angela Hill

56.1 %

050100

90% CI · 39 – 74 · σ 0.088 · Medium

Why this pick

Xiong Jingnan comes in on a 2-fight cleaner skid
Angela Hill out-volumes opponents at 16.3 sig/min vs Xiong Jingnan's 0.0
Angela Hill has a 29-fight UFC experience edge (29 vs 0)

Method Breakdown

Hill Jingnan

KO/TKO 22.3

9.5

Submission 11.2

9.1

Decision 22.6

25.4

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Key Stats career avg

Hill Jingnan

SLpM 16.3

0.0

Sig Acc 50%

Str Def 60%

TD/min 0.15

0.00

Finish 17%

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Loss streak favours Jingnan

Xiong Jingnan comes in on a 2-fight cleaner skid

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Song Yadong

22-9-1 Boxer Orthodox 1 loss

60.2% | 39.8%

Bantamweight 5 rds
⏱ Sat 30 May · 9:00 PM AEST

Deiveson Figueiredo

25-6-1 Boxing Orthodox 1 loss

▼

Model Favourite

Song Yadong

60.2 %

050100

90% CI · 46 – 74 · σ 0.071 · Medium

Why this pick

Song Yadong lands 6.2 more sig strikes per minute
Deiveson Figueiredo eats 2.2 fewer strikes per minute
Deiveson Figueiredo hits 0.16 more takedowns per minute
Song Yadong out-volumes opponents at 14.1 sig/min vs Deiveson Figueiredo's 7.9
Deiveson Figueiredo has never been finished in 21 fights

Method Breakdown

Yadong Figueiredo

KO/TKO 21.3

9.9

Submission 5.7

9.8

Decision 33.2

20.1

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Key Stats career avg

Yadong Figueiredo

SLpM 14.1

7.9

Sig Acc 44%

54%

Str Def 55%

50%

TD/min 0.17

0.32

Finish 44%

52%

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Striking volume favours Yadong

Song Yadong lands 6.2 more sig strikes per minute
02 Strikes absorbed favours Figueiredo

Deiveson Figueiredo eats 2.2 fewer strikes per minute
03 Takedown volume favours Figueiredo

Deiveson Figueiredo hits 0.16 more takedowns per minute
04 Submission rate favours Figueiredo

Deiveson Figueiredo taps opponents 13% more often
05 Takedown defence favours Yadong

Song Yadong stuffs 16% more incoming takedowns
06 KO rate favours Yadong

Song Yadong finishes by KO 9% more often

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Alonzo Menifield

17-6-1 Freestyle Orthodox 1 loss

36.8% | 63.2%

Light Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sat 30 May · 9:00 PM AEST

Zhang Mingyang

19-7-0 MMA Orthodox 1 loss

▼

Model Favourite

Zhang Mingyang

63.2 %

050100

90% CI · 46 – 80 · σ 0.085 · Medium

Why this pick

Zhang Mingyang eats 1.6 fewer strikes per minute
Zhang Mingyang lands 1.9 more sig strikes per minute
Zhang Mingyang finishes by KO 53% more often
Zhang Mingyang out-volumes opponents at 10.9 sig/min vs Alonzo Menifield's 9.0
Alonzo Menifield has a 13-fight UFC experience edge (17 vs 4)

Method Breakdown

Menifield Mingyang

KO/TKO 15.9

38.1

Submission 5.0

3.9

Decision 15.9

21.3

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Key Stats career avg

Menifield Mingyang

SLpM 9.0

10.9

Sig Acc 53%

62%

Str Def 51%

37%

TD/min 0.08

0.00

Finish 59%

100%

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours Mingyang

Zhang Mingyang eats 1.6 fewer strikes per minute
02 Striking volume favours Mingyang

Zhang Mingyang lands 1.9 more sig strikes per minute
03 KO rate favours Mingyang

Zhang Mingyang finishes by KO 53% more often
04 Finish rate favours Mingyang

Zhang Mingyang finishes 41% more of their wins
05 Control time favours Menifield

Alonzo Menifield controls 27% more cage time
06 Takedown volume favours Menifield

Alonzo Menifield hits 0.08 more takedowns per minute

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Sergei Pavlovich

20-3-0 MMA Southpaw 2-fight win streak

48.1% | 51.9%

Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sat 30 May · 9:00 PM AEST

Tallison Teixeira

9-1-0 Striker Orthodox 1 win

▼

Model Favourite

Tallison Teixeira

51.9 %

050100

90% CI · 39 – 65 · σ 0.064 · High

Why this pick

Sergei Pavlovich eats 1.3 fewer strikes per minute
Tallison Teixeira lands 1.6 more sig strikes per minute
Tallison Teixeira hits 0.43 more takedowns per minute
Tallison Teixeira out-volumes opponents at 10.1 sig/min vs Sergei Pavlovich's 8.5
Sergei Pavlovich KOs 73% of opponents — Tallison Teixeira has been KO'd in 33% of losses

Method Breakdown

Pavlovich Teixeira

KO/TKO 26.8

21.7

Submission 3.1

9.5

Decision 18.2

20.7

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Key Stats career avg

Pavlovich Teixeira

SLpM 8.5

10.1

Sig Acc 44%

70%

Str Def 56%

33%

TD/min 0.06

0.49

Finish 73%

67%

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours Pavlovich

Sergei Pavlovich eats 1.3 fewer strikes per minute
02 Striking volume favours Teixeira

Tallison Teixeira lands 1.6 more sig strikes per minute
03 Takedown volume favours Teixeira

Tallison Teixeira hits 0.43 more takedowns per minute
04 Control time favours Teixeira

Tallison Teixeira controls 93% more cage time
05 Win streak favours Pavlovich

Sergei Pavlovich rides a 1-fight longer win streak
06 Striking defence favours Pavlovich

Sergei Pavlovich avoids 23% more incoming strikes

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Kai Asakura

21-6-0 Orthodox 2-fight loss streak

34.4% | 65.6%

Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Sat 30 May · 9:00 PM AEST

Cameron Smotherman

12-6-0 Orthodox 2-fight loss streak

▼

Model Favourite

Cameron Smotherman

65.6 %

050100

90% CI · 54 – 77 · σ 0.058 · High

Why this pick

Cameron Smotherman lands 6.6 more sig strikes per minute
Kai Asakura eats 1.2 fewer strikes per minute
Kai Asakura finishes 100% more of their wins
Cameron Smotherman out-volumes opponents at 12.2 sig/min vs Kai Asakura's 5.6
Cameron Smotherman has never been finished in 3 fights

Method Breakdown

Asakura Smotherman

KO/TKO 6.2

23.0

Submission 4.9

5.4

Decision 23.3

37.1

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Key Stats career avg

Asakura Smotherman

SLpM 5.6

12.2

Sig Acc 33%

37%

Str Def 52%

60%

TD/min 0.00

0.00

Finish 100%

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Striking volume favours Smotherman

Cameron Smotherman lands 6.6 more sig strikes per minute
02 Strikes absorbed favours Asakura

Kai Asakura eats 1.2 fewer strikes per minute
03 Finish rate favours Asakura

Kai Asakura finishes 100% more of their wins
04 Durability favours Smotherman

Cameron Smotherman has been finished 100% less often
05 Sub defence favours Smotherman

Cameron Smotherman has been submitted 100% less often
06 Takedown defence favours Smotherman

Cameron Smotherman stuffs 12% more incoming takedowns

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Alex Perez

26-10-0 Freestyle Orthodox 1 win

— | —

Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sat 30 May · 9:00 PM AEST

Sumudaerji

19-7-0 Striker

▼

⟁ Win prediction & SportsBet odds will populate closer to event night. Career stats below.

Fighter Statistics

	Perez	Sumudaerji
Career record	26-10-0	19-7-0
Last 3 win %	33%	—
Finish rate	79%	—
KO/TKO rate	43%	—
Sub rate	14%	—
Sig strikes / min ↑	9.9	—

Predicted Outcomes

Win probability and method/round breakdowns appear here once the matrix processes this card.

Tip: stats above are computed from each fighter's full UFC history. Compare KO/TKO rate vs sub rate to gauge likely method even before predictions land.

Jake Matthews

22-8-0 Freestyle Orthodox 1 loss

68.9% | 31.1%

Welterweight 3 rds
⏱ Sat 30 May · 6:00 PM AEST

Muslim Salikhov

22-6-0 Orthodox 1 loss

▼

Model Favourite

Jake Matthews

68.9 %

050100

90% CI · 53 – 84 · σ 0.077 · Medium

Why this pick

Jake Matthews lands 1.3 more sig strikes per minute
Muslim Salikhov finishes by KO 44% more often
Muslim Salikhov eats 0.3 fewer strikes per minute
Jake Matthews out-volumes opponents at 9.6 sig/min vs Muslim Salikhov's 8.3
Jake Matthews has never been finished in 23 fights

Method Breakdown

Matthews Salikhov

KO/TKO 19.2

16.4

Submission 14.2

2.9

Decision 35.4

11.8

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Key Stats career avg

Matthews Salikhov

SLpM 9.6

8.3

Sig Acc 44%

50%

Str Def 60%

62%

TD/min 0.28

0.17

Finish 57%

64%

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Striking volume favours Matthews

Jake Matthews lands 1.3 more sig strikes per minute
02 KO rate favours Salikhov

Muslim Salikhov finishes by KO 44% more often
03 Strikes absorbed favours Salikhov

Muslim Salikhov eats 0.3 fewer strikes per minute
04 Control time favours Matthews

Jake Matthews controls 54% more cage time
05 Submission rate favours Matthews

Jake Matthews taps opponents 26% more often
06 Takedown volume favours Matthews

Jake Matthews hits 0.10 more takedowns per minute

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Luis Felipe Dias

nan

45.5% | 54.5%

Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sat 30 May · 6:00 PM AEST

Yi Sak Lee

0-0-0 nan

▼

Model Favourite

Yi Sak Lee

54.5 %

050100

90% CI · 42 – 67 · σ 0.064 · High

Why this pick

Yi Sak Lee is favoured at 54% — fight-history features sparse
Model uncertainty: ±6pp on the win probability
Model favours Luis Felipe Dias at 46% / Yi Sak Lee at 54%

Method Breakdown

Dias Lee

KO/TKO 10.7

18.6

Submission 14.9

14.2

Decision 20.0

21.7

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Key Stats career avg

Dias Lee

SLpM 0.0

0.0

Sig Acc 0%

Str Def 0%

TD/min 0.00

0.00

Finish 0%

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Model lean favours Lee

Yi Sak Lee is favoured at 54% — fight-history features sparse

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Aoriqileng

26-11-0

— | —

Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Sat 30 May · 6:00 PM AEST

Cody Haddon

8-1-0 MMA Orthodox 1 win

▼

⟁ Win prediction & SportsBet odds will populate closer to event night. Career stats below.

Fighter Statistics

	Aoriqileng	Haddon
Career record	26-11-0	8-1-0
Last 3 win %	—	100%
Finish rate	—	0%
KO/TKO rate	—	0%
Sub rate	—	0%
Sig strikes / min ↑	—	28.0

Predicted Outcomes

Win probability and method/round breakdowns appear here once the matrix processes this card.

Tip: stats above are computed from each fighter's full UFC history. Compare KO/TKO rate vs sub rate to gauge likely method even before predictions land.

Jesus Aguilar

12-4-0 Freestyle Orthodox 1 win

43.2% | 56.8%

Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sat 30 May · 6:00 PM AEST

Rei Tsuruya

10-1-0 MMA Orthodox 1 loss

▼

Model Favourite

Rei Tsuruya

56.8 %

050100

90% CI · 45 – 69 · σ 0.059 · High

Why this pick

Jesus Aguilar eats 2.8 fewer strikes per minute
Jesus Aguilar lands 1.6 more sig strikes per minute
Rei Tsuruya hits 0.52 more takedowns per minute
Jesus Aguilar out-volumes opponents at 6.5 sig/min vs Rei Tsuruya's 4.9
Rei Tsuruya has never been finished in 2 fights

Method Breakdown

Aguilar Tsuruya

KO/TKO 9.2

7.7

Submission 8.3

8.5

Decision 25.7

40.6

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Key Stats career avg

Aguilar Tsuruya

SLpM 6.5

4.9

Sig Acc 40%

42%

Str Def 62%

42%

TD/min 0.18

0.70

Finish 50%

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours Aguilar

Jesus Aguilar eats 2.8 fewer strikes per minute
02 Striking volume favours Aguilar

Jesus Aguilar lands 1.6 more sig strikes per minute
03 Takedown volume favours Tsuruya

Rei Tsuruya hits 0.52 more takedowns per minute
04 Finish rate favours Aguilar

Jesus Aguilar finishes 50% more of their wins
05 Win streak favours Aguilar

Jesus Aguilar rides a 1-fight longer win streak
06 Control time favours Tsuruya

Rei Tsuruya controls 68% more cage time

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Angela Hill

18-16-0 Muay Thai Orthodox 2-fight loss streak

— | —

W Strawweight 3 rds
⏱ Sat 30 May · 6:00 PM AEST

Jingnan Xiong

0-0-0

▼

⟁ Win prediction & SportsBet odds will populate closer to event night. Career stats below.

Fighter Statistics

	Hill	Xiong
Career record	18-16-0	0-0-0
Last 3 win %	33%	—
Finish rate	17%	—
KO/TKO rate	7%	—
Sub rate	3%	—
Sig strikes / min ↑	16.3	—

Predicted Outcomes

Win probability and method/round breakdowns appear here once the matrix processes this card.

Tip: stats above are computed from each fighter's full UFC history. Compare KO/TKO rate vs sub rate to gauge likely method even before predictions land.

Loma Lookboonmee

10-4-0 Striker Orthodox 1 loss

36.3% | 63.7%

W Strawweight 3 rds
⏱ Sat 30 May · 6:00 PM AEST

Jaqueline Amorim

10-2-0 Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 4-fight win streak

▼

Model Favourite

Jaqueline Amorim

63.7 %

050100

90% CI · 47 – 80 · σ 0.084 · Medium

Why this pick

Jaqueline Amorim eats 4.0 fewer strikes per minute
Loma Lookboonmee lands 4.3 more sig strikes per minute
Jaqueline Amorim rides a 4-fight longer win streak
Loma Lookboonmee out-volumes opponents at 11.3 sig/min vs Jaqueline Amorim's 7.0
Jaqueline Amorim rides a 4-fight win streak (Loma Lookboonmee: 0)

Method Breakdown

Lookboonmee Amorim

KO/TKO 8.3

11.2

Submission 4.9

22.5

Decision 23.2

30.0

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Key Stats career avg

Lookboonmee Amorim

SLpM 11.3

7.0

Sig Acc 56%

53%

Str Def 53%

64%

TD/min 0.37

0.38

Finish 10%

80%

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours Amorim

Jaqueline Amorim eats 4.0 fewer strikes per minute
02 Striking volume favours Lookboonmee

Loma Lookboonmee lands 4.3 more sig strikes per minute
03 Win streak favours Amorim

Jaqueline Amorim rides a 4-fight longer win streak
04 Finish rate favours Amorim

Jaqueline Amorim finishes 70% more of their wins
05 Control time favours Amorim

Jaqueline Amorim controls 91% more cage time
06 Submission rate favours Amorim

Jaqueline Amorim taps opponents 50% more often

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Zhu Kangjie

3-0-0 Orthodox

48.6% | 51.4%

Featherweight 3 rds
⏱ Sat 30 May · 6:00 PM AEST

Ramon Taveras

10-4-0 MMA Southpaw 2-fight loss streak

▼

Model Favourite

Ramon Taveras

51.4 %

050100

90% CI · 44 – 59 · σ 0.037 · High

Why this pick

Zhu Kangjie comes in on a 2-fight cleaner skid
Ramon Taveras out-volumes opponents at 11.6 sig/min vs Zhu Kangjie's 0.0
Ramon Taveras has never been finished in 3 fights

Method Breakdown

Kangjie Taveras

KO/TKO 11.0

16.2

Submission 6.7

7.3

Decision 30.8

27.9

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Key Stats career avg

Kangjie Taveras

SLpM 0.0

11.6

Sig Acc 0%

42%

Str Def 0%

53%

TD/min 0.00

0.00

Finish 0%

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Loss streak favours Kangjie

Zhu Kangjie comes in on a 2-fight cleaner skid

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Ding Meng

0-1-0 Orthodox

— | —

Welterweight 3 rds
⏱ Sat 30 May · 6:00 PM AEST

Jose Henrique

0-1-0 Orthodox

▼

⟁ Win prediction & SportsBet odds will populate closer to event night. Career stats below.

Fighter Statistics

	Meng	Henrique
Career record	0-1-0	0-1-0
Last 3 win %	—	—
Finish rate	—	—
KO/TKO rate	—	—
Sub rate	—	—
Sig strikes / min ↑	—	—

Predicted Outcomes

Win probability and method/round breakdowns appear here once the matrix processes this card.

Tip: stats above are computed from each fighter's full UFC history. Compare KO/TKO rate vs sub rate to gauge likely method even before predictions land.

UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim

2026

JUN

UPCOMING CARD

UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim

Meta APEX, Las Vegas, USA

Bouts

Belal Muhammad

24-5-0 Orthodox 2-fight loss streak

24.9% | 75.1%

Welterweight 5 rds
⏱ Sun 7 Jun · 10:00 AM AEST

Gabriel Bonfim

19-1-0 Striker Orthodox 4-fight win streak

▼

Model Favourite

Gabriel Bonfim

75.1 %

050100

90% CI · 19 – 100 · σ 0.087 · Medium

Why this pick

Gabriel Bonfim eats 4.2 fewer strikes per minute
Belal Muhammad lands 4.1 more sig strikes per minute
Gabriel Bonfim rides a 4-fight longer win streak
Belal Muhammad out-volumes opponents at 15.4 sig/min vs Gabriel Bonfim's 11.3
Gabriel Bonfim rides a 4-fight win streak (Belal Muhammad: 0)

Method Breakdown

Muhammad Bonfim

KO/TKO 7.2

27.4

Submission 4.2

12.0

Decision 13.5

35.7

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Key Stats career avg

Muhammad Bonfim

SLpM 15.4

11.3

Sig Acc 43%

47%

Str Def 56%

62%

TD/min 0.50

0.60

Finish 19%

71%

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours Bonfim

Gabriel Bonfim eats 4.2 fewer strikes per minute
02 Striking volume favours Muhammad

Belal Muhammad lands 4.1 more sig strikes per minute
03 Win streak favours Bonfim

Gabriel Bonfim rides a 4-fight longer win streak
04 Finish rate favours Bonfim

Gabriel Bonfim finishes 52% more of their wins
05 Submission rate favours Bonfim

Gabriel Bonfim taps opponents 38% more often
06 Takedown volume favours Bonfim

Gabriel Bonfim hits 0.11 more takedowns per minute

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Brendan Allen

26-7-0 MMA Orthodox 2-fight win streak

60.0% | 40.0%

Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 7 Jun · 10:00 AM AEST

Edmen Shahbazyan

16-5-0 MMA Orthodox 3-fight win streak

▼

Model Favourite

Brendan Allen

60.0 %

050100

90% CI · 48 – 72 · σ 0.059 · High

Why this pick

Edmen Shahbazyan eats 1.6 fewer strikes per minute
Brendan Allen lands 1.4 more sig strikes per minute
Edmen Shahbazyan rides a 1-fight longer win streak
Brendan Allen out-volumes opponents at 10.2 sig/min vs Edmen Shahbazyan's 8.8
Edmen Shahbazyan rides a 3-fight win streak (Brendan Allen: 2)

Method Breakdown

Allen Shahbazyan

KO/TKO 10.4

9.5

Submission 29.9

5.1

Decision 19.6

25.4

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Key Stats career avg

Allen Shahbazyan

SLpM 10.2

8.8

Sig Acc 53%

48%

Str Def 48%

49%

TD/min 0.29

0.26

Finish 61%

79%

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours Shahbazyan

Edmen Shahbazyan eats 1.6 fewer strikes per minute
02 Striking volume favours Allen

Brendan Allen lands 1.4 more sig strikes per minute
03 Win streak favours Shahbazyan

Edmen Shahbazyan rides a 1-fight longer win streak
04 KO rate favours Shahbazyan

Edmen Shahbazyan finishes by KO 42% more often
05 Submission rate favours Allen

Brendan Allen taps opponents 32% more often
06 Control time favours Allen

Brendan Allen controls 44% more cage time

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Victor Henry

25-7-0 Switch Stance 1 win

20.5% | 79.5%

Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 7 Jun · 10:00 AM AEST

Bryce Mitchell

18-4-0 MMA Southpaw 1 win

▼

Model Favourite

Bryce Mitchell

79.5 %

050100

90% CI · 27 – 100 · σ 0.063 · High

Why this pick

Bryce Mitchell eats 12.2 fewer strikes per minute
Victor Henry lands 16.7 more sig strikes per minute
Bryce Mitchell hits 0.39 more takedowns per minute
Victor Henry out-volumes opponents at 23.2 sig/min vs Bryce Mitchell's 6.4
Bryce Mitchell has never been finished in 12 fights

Method Breakdown

Henry Mitchell

KO/TKO 5.6

7.2

Submission 0.9

18.0

Decision 14.0

54.3

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Key Stats career avg

Henry Mitchell

SLpM 23.2

6.4

Sig Acc 53%

59%

Str Def 48%

59%

TD/min 0.22

0.61

Finish 29%

42%

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours Mitchell

Bryce Mitchell eats 12.2 fewer strikes per minute
02 Striking volume favours Henry

Victor Henry lands 16.7 more sig strikes per minute
03 Takedown volume favours Mitchell

Bryce Mitchell hits 0.39 more takedowns per minute
04 Control time favours Mitchell

Bryce Mitchell controls 95% more cage time
05 Takedown defence favours Henry

Victor Henry stuffs 48% more incoming takedowns
06 Finish rate favours Mitchell

Bryce Mitchell finishes 13% more of their wins

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Billy Elekana

10-2-0 MMA Southpaw 3-fight win streak

49.3% | 50.7%

Light Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 7 Jun · 10:00 AM AEST

Iwo Baraniewski

8-0-0 Judo Orthodox 2-fight win streak

▼

Model Favourite

Iwo Baraniewski

50.7 %

050100

90% CI · 39 – 63 · σ 0.061 · High

Why this pick

Billy Elekana eats 6.9 fewer strikes per minute
Iwo Baraniewski lands 9.9 more sig strikes per minute
Iwo Baraniewski finishes by KO 100% more often
Iwo Baraniewski out-volumes opponents at 16.1 sig/min vs Billy Elekana's 6.2
Iwo Baraniewski has never been finished in 2 fights

Method Breakdown

Elekana Baraniewski

KO/TKO 9.9

25.9

Submission 20.9

6.1

Decision 18.6

18.6

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Key Stats career avg

Elekana Baraniewski

SLpM 6.2

16.1

Sig Acc 56%

71%

Str Def 46%

47%

TD/min 0.13

0.00

Finish 75%

100%

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours Elekana

Billy Elekana eats 6.9 fewer strikes per minute
02 Striking volume favours Baraniewski

Iwo Baraniewski lands 9.9 more sig strikes per minute
03 KO rate favours Baraniewski

Iwo Baraniewski finishes by KO 100% more often
04 Submission rate favours Elekana

Billy Elekana taps opponents 50% more often
05 Win streak favours Elekana

Billy Elekana rides a 1-fight longer win streak
06 Finish rate favours Baraniewski

Iwo Baraniewski finishes 25% more of their wins

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Matt Schnell

17-10-0 Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 1 loss

25.8% | 74.2%

Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 7 Jun · 10:00 AM AEST

Imanol Rodriguez

7-0-0 Freestyle Orthodox 1 win

▼

Model Favourite

Imanol Rodriguez

74.2 %

050100

90% CI · 18 – 100 · σ 0.083 · Medium

Why this pick

Imanol Rodriguez eats 4.0 fewer strikes per minute
Imanol Rodriguez lands 1.4 more sig strikes per minute
Imanol Rodriguez finishes by KO 67% more often
Matt Schnell has a 14-fight UFC experience edge (15 vs 1)
Imanol Rodriguez out-volumes opponents at 10.6 sig/min vs Matt Schnell's 9.2

Method Breakdown

Schnell Rodriguez

KO/TKO 5.5

34.2

Submission 10.3

8.3

Decision 10.0

31.7

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Key Stats career avg

Schnell Rodriguez

SLpM 9.2

10.6

Sig Acc 39%

55%

Str Def 57%

58%

TD/min 0.06

0.23

Finish 67%

100%

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours Rodriguez

Imanol Rodriguez eats 4.0 fewer strikes per minute
02 Striking volume favours Rodriguez

Imanol Rodriguez lands 1.4 more sig strikes per minute
03 KO rate favours Rodriguez

Imanol Rodriguez finishes by KO 67% more often
04 Win streak favours Rodriguez

Imanol Rodriguez rides a 1-fight longer win streak
05 Control time favours Rodriguez

Imanol Rodriguez controls 70% more cage time
06 Finish rate favours Rodriguez

Imanol Rodriguez finishes 33% more of their wins

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SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.

Jakub Wiklacz

18-3-2 Grappler Orthodox 2-fight win streak

39.7% | 60.3%

3 rds

Marcus McGhee

10-2-0 Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 1 loss

▼

Model Favourite

Marcus McGhee

60.3 %

050100

90% CI · 42 – 78 · σ 0.091 · Medium

Why this pick

Marcus McGhee lands 4.5 more sig strikes per minute
Marcus McGhee eats 1.9 fewer strikes per minute
Jakub Wiklacz rides a 2-fight longer win streak
Marcus McGhee out-volumes opponents at 14.7 sig/min vs Jakub Wiklacz's 10.2
Marcus McGhee has never been finished in 5 fights

Method Breakdown

Wiklacz McGhee

KO/TKO 8.6

11.1

Submission 12.0

8.6

Decision 19.0

40.6

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Key Stats career avg

Wiklacz McGhee

SLpM 10.2

14.7

Sig Acc 44%

45%

Str Def 46%

58%

TD/min 0.00

0.06

Finish 50%

60%

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Striking volume favours McGhee

Marcus McGhee lands 4.5 more sig strikes per minute
02 Strikes absorbed favours McGhee

Marcus McGhee eats 1.9 fewer strikes per minute
03 Win streak favours Wiklacz

Jakub Wiklacz rides a 2-fight longer win streak
04 KO rate favours McGhee

Marcus McGhee finishes by KO 40% more often
05 Takedown defence favours McGhee

Marcus McGhee stuffs 48% more incoming takedowns
06 Control time favours Wiklacz

Jakub Wiklacz controls 50% more cage time

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed

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Bruno Silva

15-8-2 Grappler Orthodox

40.5% | 59.5%

Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 7 Jun · 7:00 AM AEST

Edgar Chairez

13-6-0 Freestyle Orthodox 2-fight win streak

▼

Model Favourite

Edgar Chairez

59.5 %

050100

90% CI · 52 – 67 · σ 0.036 · High

Why this pick

Edgar Chairez rides a 2-fight longer win streak
Edgar Chairez out-volumes opponents at 8.4 sig/min vs Bruno Silva's 0.0
Edgar Chairez has never been finished in 6 fights

Method Breakdown

Silva Chairez

KO/TKO 9.5

23.2

Submission 7.4

15.6

Decision 23.6

20.7

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Key Stats career avg

Silva Chairez

SLpM 0.0

8.4

Sig Acc 0%

47%

Str Def 0%

46%

TD/min 0.00

0.00

Finish 0%

33%

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Win streak favours Chairez

Edgar Chairez rides a 2-fight longer win streak

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Yuneisy Duben

6-1-0 Orthodox 1 loss

45.7% | 54.3%

W Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 7 Jun · 7:00 AM AEST

Jeisla Chaves

1-0-0 Orthodox

▼

Model Favourite

Jeisla Chaves

54.3 %

050100

90% CI · 47 – 62 · σ 0.039 · High

Why this pick

Jeisla Chaves comes in on a 1-fight cleaner skid
Yuneisy Duben out-volumes opponents at 8.4 sig/min vs Jeisla Chaves's 0.0
Model uncertainty: ±4pp on the win probability

Method Breakdown

Duben Chaves

KO/TKO 21.4

20.0

Submission 5.8

15.3

Decision 18.5

19.0

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Key Stats career avg

Duben Chaves

SLpM 8.4

0.0

Sig Acc 34%

Str Def 60%

TD/min 0.00

0.00

Finish 100%

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Loss streak favours Chaves

Jeisla Chaves comes in on a 1-fight cleaner skid

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed

SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.

Fares Ziam

18-4-0 Kickboxer Orthodox 6-fight win streak

60.5% | 39.5%

Lightweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 7 Jun · 7:00 AM AEST

Tom Nolan

10-1-0 Southpaw 4-fight win streak

▼

Model Favourite

Fares Ziam

60.5 %

050100

90% CI · 47 – 74 · σ 0.065 · High

Why this pick

Fares Ziam eats 5.5 fewer strikes per minute
Tom Nolan lands 3.5 more sig strikes per minute
Fares Ziam rides a 2-fight longer win streak
Tom Nolan out-volumes opponents at 11.8 sig/min vs Fares Ziam's 8.3
Fares Ziam rides a 6-fight win streak (Tom Nolan: 4)

Method Breakdown

Ziam Nolan

KO/TKO 13.8

11.9

Submission 8.1

6.9

Decision 38.6

20.6

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Key Stats career avg

Ziam Nolan

SLpM 8.3

11.8

Sig Acc 53%

45%

Str Def 65%

48%

TD/min 0.33

0.11

Finish 30%

60%

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours Ziam

Fares Ziam eats 5.5 fewer strikes per minute
02 Striking volume favours Nolan

Tom Nolan lands 3.5 more sig strikes per minute
03 Win streak favours Ziam

Fares Ziam rides a 2-fight longer win streak
04 Takedown volume favours Ziam

Fares Ziam hits 0.23 more takedowns per minute
05 Control time favours Ziam

Fares Ziam controls 60% more cage time
06 Finish rate favours Nolan

Tom Nolan finishes 30% more of their wins

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed

SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.

Ariane Carnelossi

15-4-0 Muay Thai Orthodox 2-fight loss streak

21.4% | 78.6%

W Strawweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 7 Jun · 7:00 AM AEST

Ketlen Souza

16-6-0 Boxing Orthodox 1 win

▼

Model Favourite

Ketlen Souza

78.6 %

050100

90% CI · 26 – 100 · σ 0.055 · High

Why this pick

Ketlen Souza eats 7.4 fewer strikes per minute
Ariane Carnelossi finishes 47% more of their wins
Ketlen Souza rides a 1-fight longer win streak
Ketlen Souza has never been finished in 6 fights
Ariane Carnelossi has never been finished in 5 fights

Method Breakdown

Carnelossi Souza

KO/TKO 4.1

17.2

Submission 5.2

19.7

Decision 12.2

41.6

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Key Stats career avg

Carnelossi Souza

SLpM 10.4

10.5

Sig Acc 39%

56%

Str Def 43%

53%

TD/min 0.31

0.08

Finish 80%

33%

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours Souza

Ketlen Souza eats 7.4 fewer strikes per minute
02 Finish rate favours Carnelossi

Ariane Carnelossi finishes 47% more of their wins
03 Win streak favours Souza

Ketlen Souza rides a 1-fight longer win streak
04 Takedown volume favours Carnelossi

Ariane Carnelossi hits 0.23 more takedowns per minute
05 KO rate favours Carnelossi

Ariane Carnelossi finishes by KO 40% more often
06 Takedown defence favours Souza

Ketlen Souza stuffs 34% more incoming takedowns

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed

SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.

Joanderson Brito

18-5-1 Striker Orthodox 1 win

50.6% | 49.4%

Featherweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 7 Jun · 7:00 AM AEST

Jordan Leavitt

13-3-0 Freestyle Southpaw 2-fight win streak

▼

Model Favourite

Jordan Leavitt

49.4 %

050100

90% CI · 38 – 61 · σ 0.059 · High

Why this pick

Jordan Leavitt eats 1.8 fewer strikes per minute
Jordan Leavitt rides a 1-fight longer win streak
Jordan Leavitt avoids 15% more incoming strikes
Joanderson Brito has never been finished in 9 fights
Jordan Leavitt has never been finished in 9 fights

Method Breakdown

Brito Leavitt

KO/TKO 6.7

10.8

Submission 18.9

9.6

Decision 25.0

28.9

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Key Stats career avg

Brito Leavitt

SLpM 5.5

5.6

Sig Acc 49%

58%

Str Def 44%

59%

TD/min 0.54

0.51

Finish 56%

67%

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours Leavitt

Jordan Leavitt eats 1.8 fewer strikes per minute
02 Win streak favours Leavitt

Jordan Leavitt rides a 1-fight longer win streak
03 Striking defence favours Leavitt

Jordan Leavitt avoids 15% more incoming strikes
04 KO rate favours Brito

Joanderson Brito finishes by KO 11% more often
05 Takedown defence favours Brito

Joanderson Brito stuffs 18% more incoming takedowns
06 Finish rate favours Leavitt

Jordan Leavitt finishes 11% more of their wins

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SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.

Priscila Cachoeira

13-8-0 Brawler Orthodox 2-fight loss streak

43.4% | 56.6%

W Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 7 Jun · 7:00 AM AEST

Chelsea Chandler

6-4-0 MMA Southpaw 2-fight loss streak

▼

Model Favourite

Chelsea Chandler

56.6 %

050100

90% CI · 43 – 70 · σ 0.069 · High

Why this pick

Chelsea Chandler eats 8.2 fewer strikes per minute
Priscila Cachoeira lands 2.5 more sig strikes per minute
Chelsea Chandler controls 60% more cage time
Priscila Cachoeira out-volumes opponents at 10.9 sig/min vs Chelsea Chandler's 8.5
Priscila Cachoeira has a 8-fight UFC experience edge (13 vs 5)

Method Breakdown

Cachoeira Chandler

KO/TKO 16.2

12.0

Submission 2.8

10.1

Decision 24.5

34.5

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Key Stats career avg

Cachoeira Chandler

SLpM 10.9

8.5

Sig Acc 44%

45%

Str Def 46%

40%

TD/min 0.04

0.14

Finish 69%

40%

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours Chandler

Chelsea Chandler eats 8.2 fewer strikes per minute
02 Striking volume favours Cachoeira

Priscila Cachoeira lands 2.5 more sig strikes per minute
03 Control time favours Chandler

Chelsea Chandler controls 60% more cage time
04 Finish rate favours Cachoeira

Priscila Cachoeira finishes 29% more of their wins
05 Takedown defence favours Cachoeira

Priscila Cachoeira stuffs 41% more incoming takedowns
06 Takedown volume favours Chandler

Chelsea Chandler hits 0.10 more takedowns per minute

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed

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UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje

2026

JUN

UPCOMING CARD

UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje

South Lawn of the White House, Washington, USA

Bouts

Value Bouts

Justin Gaethje

27-5-0 MMA Orthodox 2-fight win streak

SB 5.75

19.5% | 80.5%

Lightweight 5 rds
⏱ Mon 15 Jun · 11:15 AM AEST

Ilia Topuria

17-0-0 Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 9-fight win streak

SB 1.13

▼

Model Favourite

Ilia Topuria

80.5 %

050100

90% CI · 29 – 100 · σ 0.058 · High

Why this pick

Ilia Topuria eats 13.6 fewer strikes per minute
Justin Gaethje lands 8.8 more sig strikes per minute
Ilia Topuria rides a 7-fight longer win streak
Justin Gaethje out-volumes opponents at 22.6 sig/min vs Ilia Topuria's 13.8
Ilia Topuria rides a 9-fight win streak (Justin Gaethje: 2)

Method Breakdown

Gaethje Topuria

KO/TKO 6.5

48.0

Submission 0.8

12.3

Decision 12.2

20.2

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Key Stats career avg

Gaethje Topuria

SLpM 22.6

13.8

Sig Acc 59%

48%

Str Def 51%

64%

TD/min 0.08

0.38

Finish 73%

78%

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours Topuria

Ilia Topuria eats 13.6 fewer strikes per minute
02 Striking volume favours Gaethje

Justin Gaethje lands 8.8 more sig strikes per minute
03 Win streak favours Topuria

Ilia Topuria rides a 7-fight longer win streak
04 Takedown volume favours Topuria

Ilia Topuria hits 0.30 more takedowns per minute
05 Control time favours Topuria

Ilia Topuria controls 42% more cage time
06 Striking defence favours Topuria

Ilia Topuria avoids 13% more incoming strikes

Value Bets · SportsBet 11 flagged · 100 markets analysed

Ilia Topuria wins by DEC
Strong pick

Model 20%

Bookies 8%

EV / $100 +$163

Stake 3.4%

13.00

$34 returns $442

+$408 profit
Fight goes to Decision
Strong pick

Model 32%

Bookies 14%

EV / $100 +$135

Stake 5.4%

7.25

$54 returns $392

+$338 profit
Justin Gaethje wins by DEC
Solid edge

Model 12%

Bookies 6%

EV / $100 +$95

Stake 1.6%

16.00

$16 returns $256

+$240 profit
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision
Strong pick

Model 56%

Bookies 33%

EV / $100 +$72

Stake 8.7%

3.07

$87 returns $267

+$180 profit
Justin Gaethje wins by finish in Round 1
Solid edge

Model 7%

Bookies 4%

EV / $100 +$71

Stake 0.8%

23.00

$8 returns $184

+$176 profit
Justin Gaethje wins by Sub or Decision
Solid edge

Model 13%

Bookies 8%

EV / $100 +$62

Stake 1.4%

12.50

$14 returns $175

+$161 profit
Fight reaches Round 5
Strong pick

Model 35%

Bookies 22%

EV / $100 +$62

Stake 4.3%

4.60

$43 returns $198

+$155 profit
Ilia Topuria wins by Sub or Decision
Strong pick

Model 33%

Bookies 24%

EV / $100 +$37

Stake 2.9%

4.20

$29 returns $122

+$93 profit
Ilia Topuria wins in R4+ or by Decision
Strong pick

Model 33%

Bookies 24%

EV / $100 +$34

Stake 2.8%

4.10

$28 returns $115

+$87 profit
Under 2.5 rounds
Strong pick

Model 59%

Bookies 45%

EV / $100 +$30

Stake 6.3%

2.20

$64 returns $141

+$77 profit
Fight reaches Round 4
Strong pick

Model 41%

Bookies 33%

EV / $100 +$25

Stake 3.0%

3.07

$30 returns $92

+$62 profit

Ciryl Gane

13-2-0 Muay Thai Orthodox 1 loss

SB 1.88

63.2% | 36.8%

Heavyweight 5 rds
⏱ Mon 15 Jun · 10:30 AM AEST

Alex Pereira

13-3-0 Kickboxer Orthodox 1 win

SB 1.92

▼

Model Favourite

Ciryl Gane

63.2 %

050100

90% CI · 51 – 75 · σ 0.060 · High

Why this pick

Ciryl Gane eats 4.8 fewer strikes per minute
Alex Pereira lands 1.2 more sig strikes per minute
Alex Pereira finishes by KO 44% more often
Alex Pereira out-volumes opponents at 17.9 sig/min vs Ciryl Gane's 16.7
Ciryl Gane has never been finished in 13 fights

Method Breakdown

Gane Pereira

KO/TKO 27.3

13.7

Submission 10.1

0.8

Decision 25.8

22.3

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Key Stats career avg

Gane Pereira

SLpM 16.7

17.9

Sig Acc 62%

62%

Str Def 61%

54%

TD/min 0.14

0.03

Finish 54%

75%

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours Gane

Ciryl Gane eats 4.8 fewer strikes per minute
02 Striking volume favours Pereira

Alex Pereira lands 1.2 more sig strikes per minute
03 KO rate favours Pereira

Alex Pereira finishes by KO 44% more often
04 Win streak favours Pereira

Alex Pereira rides a 1-fight longer win streak
05 Takedown volume favours Gane

Ciryl Gane hits 0.12 more takedowns per minute
06 Finish rate favours Pereira

Alex Pereira finishes 21% more of their wins

Value Bets · SportsBet 12 flagged · 100 markets analysed

Ciryl Gane wins by finish in Round 1
Strong pick

Model 28%

Bookies 11%

EV / $100 +$148

Stake 4.8%

8.75

$48 returns $420

+$372 profit
Ciryl Gane wins by finish in Round 2
Strong pick

Model 21%

Bookies 10%

EV / $100 +$105

Stake 3.0%

9.75

$30 returns $292

+$262 profit
Alex Pereira wins by DEC
Strong pick

Model 22%

Bookies 12%

EV / $100 +$79

Stake 2.8%

8.00

$28 returns $224

+$196 profit
Fight goes to decision
Strong pick

Model 48%

Bookies 33%

EV / $100 +$47

Stake 5.7%

3.05

$57 returns $174

+$117 profit
Alex Pereira wins by Sub or Decision
Strong pick

Model 23%

Bookies 16%

EV / $100 +$45

Stake 2.1%

6.25

$21 returns $131

+$110 profit
Ciryl Gane wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2
Solid edge

Model 21%

Bookies 15%

EV / $100 +$39

Stake 1.8%

6.50

$18 returns $117

+$99 profit
Ciryl Gane wins by KO/TKO in R1
Solid edge

Model 12%

Bookies 9%

EV / $100 +$35

Stake 0.9%

11.00

$9 returns $99

+$90 profit
Fight reaches Round 5
Strong pick

Model 50%

Bookies 40%

EV / $100 +$27

Stake 4.4%

2.53

$44 returns $111

+$67 profit
Ciryl Gane wins by KO/TKO in R1, R2 or R3
Solid edge

Model 25%

Bookies 20%

EV / $100 +$27

Stake 1.7%

5.00

$17 returns $85

+$68 profit
Ciryl Gane wins by Sub or Decision
Strong pick

Model 36%

Bookies 30%

EV / $100 +$20

Stake 2.1%

3.35

$22 returns $74

+$52 profit
Ciryl Gane wins by DEC
Solid edge

Model 26%

Bookies 22%

EV / $100 +$16

Stake 1.2%

4.50

$12 returns $54

+$42 profit
Ciryl Gane wins by KO or Decision
Strong pick

Model 53%

Bookies 47%

EV / $100 +$13

Stake 2.8%

2.12

$28 returns $59

+$31 profit

Aiemann Zahabi

14-2-0 MMA Orthodox 6-fight win streak

SB 4.05

39.0% | 61.0%

Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Mon 15 Jun · 9:45 AM AEST

Sean O'Malley

19-3-0 Switch Stance 1 win

SB 1.23

▼

Model Favourite

Sean O'Malley

61.0 %

050100

90% CI · 48 – 74 · σ 0.066 · High

Why this pick

Sean O'Malley eats 2.3 fewer strikes per minute
Sean O'Malley lands 4.4 more sig strikes per minute
Aiemann Zahabi rides a 5-fight longer win streak
Aiemann Zahabi rides a 6-fight win streak (Sean O'Malley: 1)
Sean O'Malley out-volumes opponents at 18.0 sig/min vs Aiemann Zahabi's 13.6

Method Breakdown

Zahabi O'Malley

KO/TKO 7.0

24.2

Submission 0.0

0.6

Decision 32.1

36.2

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Key Stats career avg

Zahabi O'Malley

SLpM 13.6

18.0

Sig Acc 48%

61%

Str Def 69%

60%

TD/min 0.02

0.05

Finish 22%

53%

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours O'Malley

Sean O'Malley eats 2.3 fewer strikes per minute
02 Striking volume favours O'Malley

Sean O'Malley lands 4.4 more sig strikes per minute
03 Win streak favours Zahabi

Aiemann Zahabi rides a 5-fight longer win streak
04 Finish rate favours O'Malley

Sean O'Malley finishes 31% more of their wins
05 KO rate favours O'Malley

Sean O'Malley finishes by KO 24% more often
06 Takedown defence favours Zahabi

Aiemann Zahabi stuffs 24% more incoming takedowns

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed

No markets passed the empirical-ROI gate. 2 markets analysed.

Michael Chandler

23-10-0 Wrestler Orthodox 3-fight loss streak

SB 5.50

24.8% | 75.2%

Lightweight 3 rds
⏱ Mon 15 Jun · 9:15 AM AEST

Mauricio Ruffy

13-2-0 Striker Orthodox 1 win

SB 1.14

▼

Model Favourite

Mauricio Ruffy

75.2 %

050100

90% CI · 20 – 100 · σ 0.085 · Medium

Why this pick

Mauricio Ruffy eats 11.7 fewer strikes per minute
Michael Chandler lands 8.8 more sig strikes per minute
Michael Chandler hits 0.48 more takedowns per minute
Michael Chandler out-volumes opponents at 16.9 sig/min vs Mauricio Ruffy's 8.1
Mauricio Ruffy KOs 60% of opponents — Michael Chandler has been KO'd in 29% of losses

Method Breakdown

Chandler Ruffy

KO/TKO 5.8

39.7

Submission 4.5

5.2

Decision 14.4

30.3

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Key Stats career avg

Chandler Ruffy

SLpM 16.9

8.1

Sig Acc 51%

58%

Str Def 40%

59%

TD/min 0.48

0.00

Finish 71%

80%

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours Ruffy

Mauricio Ruffy eats 11.7 fewer strikes per minute
02 Striking volume favours Chandler

Michael Chandler lands 8.8 more sig strikes per minute
03 Takedown volume favours Chandler

Michael Chandler hits 0.48 more takedowns per minute
04 Control time favours Chandler

Michael Chandler controls 75% more cage time
05 Win streak favours Ruffy

Mauricio Ruffy rides a 1-fight longer win streak
06 Striking defence favours Ruffy

Mauricio Ruffy avoids 19% more incoming strikes

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed

No markets passed the empirical-ROI gate. 2 markets analysed.

Kyle Daukaus

17-4-0 Southpaw 2-fight win streak

SB 3.40

18.5% | 81.5%

Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Mon 15 Jun · 8:30 AM AEST

Bo Nickal

8-1-0 Wrestler Southpaw 1 win

SB 1.30

▼

Model Favourite

Bo Nickal

81.5 %

050100

90% CI · 31 – 100 · σ 0.045 · High

Why this pick

Bo Nickal lands 2.7 more sig strikes per minute
Bo Nickal eats 1.0 fewer strikes per minute
Kyle Daukaus rides a 1-fight longer win streak
Bo Nickal out-volumes opponents at 9.4 sig/min vs Kyle Daukaus's 6.7
Bo Nickal KOs 50% of opponents — Kyle Daukaus has been KO'd in 22% of losses

Method Breakdown

Daukaus Nickal

KO/TKO 4.3

33.0

Submission 3.4

19.2

Decision 10.8

29.3

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Key Stats career avg

Daukaus Nickal

SLpM 6.7

9.4

Sig Acc 50%

61%

Str Def 43%

60%

TD/min 0.31

0.43

Finish 56%

83%

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Striking volume favours Nickal

Bo Nickal lands 2.7 more sig strikes per minute
02 Strikes absorbed favours Nickal

Bo Nickal eats 1.0 fewer strikes per minute
03 Win streak favours Daukaus

Kyle Daukaus rides a 1-fight longer win streak
04 Finish rate favours Nickal

Bo Nickal finishes 28% more of their wins
05 Takedown volume favours Nickal

Bo Nickal hits 0.12 more takedowns per minute
06 KO rate favours Nickal

Bo Nickal finishes by KO 17% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed

No markets passed the empirical-ROI gate. 2 markets analysed.

Steve Garcia

19-5-0 Freestyle Southpaw 8-fight win streak

SB 2.54

57.2% | 42.8%

Featherweight 3 rds
⏱ Mon 15 Jun · 8:10 AM AEST

Diego Lopes

27-8-0 Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 1 loss

SB 1.50

▼

Model Favourite

Steve Garcia

57.2 %

050100

90% CI · 39 – 75 · σ 0.089 · Medium

Why this pick

Steve Garcia eats 10.2 fewer strikes per minute
Steve Garcia rides a 8-fight longer win streak
Diego Lopes lands 0.9 more sig strikes per minute
Steve Garcia rides a 8-fight win streak (Diego Lopes: 0)
Steve Garcia has never been finished in 9 fights

Method Breakdown

Garcia Lopes

KO/TKO 22.3

17.8

Submission 6.1

4.2

Decision 28.8

20.8

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Key Stats career avg

Garcia Lopes

SLpM 11.8

12.7

Sig Acc 48%

48%

Str Def 64%

46%

TD/min 0.17

0.20

Finish 78%

44%

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours Garcia

Steve Garcia eats 10.2 fewer strikes per minute
02 Win streak favours Garcia

Steve Garcia rides a 8-fight longer win streak
03 Striking volume favours Lopes

Diego Lopes lands 0.9 more sig strikes per minute
04 KO rate favours Garcia

Steve Garcia finishes by KO 44% more often
05 Finish rate favours Garcia

Steve Garcia finishes 33% more of their wins
06 Striking defence favours Garcia

Steve Garcia avoids 18% more incoming strikes

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed

No markets passed the empirical-ROI gate. 2 markets analysed.

Derrick Lewis

29-13-0 Brawler Orthodox 1 loss

SB 3.35

23.1% | 76.9%

Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Mon 15 Jun · 8:50 AM AEST

Josh Hokit

9-0-0 Wrestling Orthodox 3-fight win streak

SB 1.30

▼

Model Favourite

Josh Hokit

76.9 %

050100

90% CI · 22 – 100 · σ 0.083 · Medium

Why this pick

Derrick Lewis eats 8.3 fewer strikes per minute
Josh Hokit lands 12.9 more sig strikes per minute
Josh Hokit rides a 3-fight longer win streak
Josh Hokit out-volumes opponents at 20.4 sig/min vs Derrick Lewis's 7.6
Josh Hokit rides a 3-fight win streak (Derrick Lewis: 0)

Method Breakdown

Lewis Hokit

KO/TKO 5.9

58.3

Submission 2.5

0.6

Decision 14.7

17.9

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Key Stats career avg

Lewis Hokit

SLpM 7.6

20.4

Sig Acc 50%

61%

Str Def 40%

44%

TD/min 0.11

0.09

Finish 84%

67%

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours Lewis

Derrick Lewis eats 8.3 fewer strikes per minute
02 Striking volume favours Hokit

Josh Hokit lands 12.9 more sig strikes per minute
03 Win streak favours Hokit

Josh Hokit rides a 3-fight longer win streak
04 Finish rate favours Lewis

Derrick Lewis finishes 17% more of their wins
05 KO durability favours Hokit

Josh Hokit has been KO'd 26% less often
06 Takedown defence favours Hokit

Josh Hokit stuffs 23% more incoming takedowns

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed

No markets passed the empirical-ROI gate. 2 markets analysed.

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi

2026

JUN

UPCOMING CARD

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi

Meta APEX, Las Vegas, USA

Bouts

Kyoji Horiguchi

36-5-0 Orthodox 5-fight win streak

46.2% | 53.8%

Flyweight 5 rds
⏱ Sun 21 Jun · 10:00 AM AEST

Manel Kape

22-7-0 MMA Southpaw 3-fight win streak

▼

Model Favourite

Manel Kape

53.8 %

050100

90% CI · 42 – 66 · σ 0.059 · High

Why this pick

Kyoji Horiguchi eats 4.4 fewer strikes per minute
Manel Kape lands 1.8 more sig strikes per minute
Kyoji Horiguchi rides a 2-fight longer win streak
Kyoji Horiguchi rides a 5-fight win streak (Manel Kape: 3)
Manel Kape out-volumes opponents at 13.6 sig/min vs Kyoji Horiguchi's 11.8

Method Breakdown

Horiguchi Kape

KO/TKO 10.5

26.1

Submission 6.2

4.4

Decision 29.5

23.2

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Key Stats career avg

Horiguchi Kape

SLpM 11.8

13.6

Sig Acc 47%

56%

Str Def 64%

57%

TD/min 0.33

0.07

Finish 40%

50%

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours Horiguchi

Kyoji Horiguchi eats 4.4 fewer strikes per minute
02 Striking volume favours Kape

Manel Kape lands 1.8 more sig strikes per minute
03 Win streak favours Horiguchi

Kyoji Horiguchi rides a 2-fight longer win streak
04 Takedown volume favours Horiguchi

Kyoji Horiguchi hits 0.26 more takedowns per minute
05 Control time favours Horiguchi

Kyoji Horiguchi controls 57% more cage time
06 KO rate favours Kape

Manel Kape finishes by KO 30% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed

SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.

Allan Nascimento

22-6-0 Striker Orthodox 4-fight win streak

57.0% | 43.0%

Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 21 Jun · 10:00 AM AEST

Mitch Raposo

10-3-0 Freestyle Switch Stance 1 win

▼

Model Favourite

Allan Nascimento

57.0 %

050100

90% CI · 45 – 70 · σ 0.063 · High

Why this pick

Allan Nascimento eats 2.3 fewer strikes per minute
Allan Nascimento rides a 3-fight longer win streak
Mitch Raposo lands 0.9 more sig strikes per minute
Allan Nascimento rides a 4-fight win streak (Mitch Raposo: 1)
Allan Nascimento has never been finished in 5 fights

Method Breakdown

Nascimento Raposo

KO/TKO 7.6

9.6

Submission 21.3

4.9

Decision 28.2

28.5

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Key Stats career avg

Nascimento Raposo

SLpM 5.3

6.2

Sig Acc 48%

44%

Str Def 57%

63%

TD/min 0.23

0.10

Finish 40%

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours Nascimento

Allan Nascimento eats 2.3 fewer strikes per minute
02 Win streak favours Nascimento

Allan Nascimento rides a 3-fight longer win streak
03 Striking volume favours Raposo

Mitch Raposo lands 0.9 more sig strikes per minute
04 Control time favours Nascimento

Allan Nascimento controls 81% more cage time
05 Finish rate favours Nascimento

Allan Nascimento finishes 40% more of their wins
06 Submission rate favours Nascimento

Allan Nascimento taps opponents 40% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed

SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.

Christian Rodriguez

12-4-0 Freestyle Orthodox 2-fight loss streak

63.8% | 36.2%

Featherweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 21 Jun · 10:00 AM AEST

Hyder Amil

11-2-0 MMA Switch Stance 2-fight loss streak

▼

Model Favourite

Christian Rodriguez

63.8 %

050100

90% CI · 52 – 76 · σ 0.061 · High

Why this pick

Christian Rodriguez eats 6.5 fewer strikes per minute
Hyder Amil lands 11.2 more sig strikes per minute
Hyder Amil finishes by KO 60% more often
Hyder Amil out-volumes opponents at 20.7 sig/min vs Christian Rodriguez's 9.5
Christian Rodriguez has never been finished in 9 fights

Method Breakdown

Rodriguez Amil

KO/TKO 19.1

9.6

Submission 5.2

0.7

Decision 39.5

25.8

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Key Stats career avg

Rodriguez Amil

SLpM 9.5

20.7

Sig Acc 52%

53%

Str Def 56%

51%

TD/min 0.34

0.15

Finish 22%

60%

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours Rodriguez

Christian Rodriguez eats 6.5 fewer strikes per minute
02 Striking volume favours Amil

Hyder Amil lands 11.2 more sig strikes per minute
03 KO rate favours Amil

Hyder Amil finishes by KO 60% more often
04 Finish rate favours Amil

Hyder Amil finishes 38% more of their wins
05 Takedown volume favours Rodriguez

Christian Rodriguez hits 0.20 more takedowns per minute
06 Takedown defence favours Rodriguez

Christian Rodriguez stuffs 24% more incoming takedowns

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed

SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.

Melissa Mullins

7-2-0 MMA Orthodox 1 loss

28.8% | 71.2%

W Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 21 Jun · 10:00 AM AEST

Bia Mesquita

6-0-0 Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 2-fight win streak

▼

Model Favourite

Bia Mesquita

71.2 %

050100

90% CI · 53 – 89 · σ 0.091 · Medium

Why this pick

Bia Mesquita eats 12.1 fewer strikes per minute
Bia Mesquita taps opponents 100% more often
Bia Mesquita rides a 2-fight longer win streak
Bia Mesquita has never been finished in 2 fights
Bia Mesquita out-volumes opponents at 12.4 sig/min vs Melissa Mullins's 11.4

Method Breakdown

Mullins Mesquita

KO/TKO 9.8

21.3

Submission 5.8

7.3

Decision 13.3

42.6

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Key Stats career avg

Mullins Mesquita

SLpM 11.4

12.4

Sig Acc 50%

60%

Str Def 53%

81%

TD/min 0.42

0.69

Finish 50%

100%

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours Mesquita

Bia Mesquita eats 12.1 fewer strikes per minute
02 Submission rate favours Mesquita

Bia Mesquita taps opponents 100% more often
03 Win streak favours Mesquita

Bia Mesquita rides a 2-fight longer win streak
04 Striking volume favours Mesquita

Bia Mesquita lands 1.0 more sig strikes per minute
05 KO rate favours Mullins

Melissa Mullins finishes by KO 50% more often
06 Takedown volume favours Mesquita

Bia Mesquita hits 0.27 more takedowns per minute

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed

SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.

Ion Cutelaba

20-11-1 Sambo Southpaw 1 win

29.5% | 70.5%

Light Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 21 Jun · 10:00 AM AEST

Navajo Stirling

9-0-0 Kickboxer Orthodox 4-fight win streak

▼

Model Favourite

Navajo Stirling

70.5 %

050100

90% CI · 55 – 86 · σ 0.077 · Medium

Why this pick

Navajo Stirling lands 7.7 more sig strikes per minute
Navajo Stirling rides a 3-fight longer win streak
Ion Cutelaba hits 0.36 more takedowns per minute
Navajo Stirling out-volumes opponents at 17.4 sig/min vs Ion Cutelaba's 9.7
Navajo Stirling rides a 4-fight win streak (Ion Cutelaba: 1)

Method Breakdown

Cutelaba Stirling

KO/TKO 6.9

38.8

Submission 5.4

5.1

Decision 17.2

26.6

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Key Stats career avg

Cutelaba Stirling

SLpM 9.7

17.4

Sig Acc 44%

51%

Str Def 48%

59%

TD/min 0.57

0.21

Finish 65%

25%

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Striking volume favours Stirling

Navajo Stirling lands 7.7 more sig strikes per minute
02 Win streak favours Stirling

Navajo Stirling rides a 3-fight longer win streak
03 Takedown volume favours Cutelaba

Ion Cutelaba hits 0.36 more takedowns per minute
04 Finish rate favours Cutelaba

Ion Cutelaba finishes 40% more of their wins
05 Strikes absorbed favours Stirling

Navajo Stirling eats 0.2 fewer strikes per minute
06 Durability favours Stirling

Navajo Stirling has been finished 35% less often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed

SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.

Kevin Borjas

10-5-0 Orthodox 1 loss

14.3% | 85.7%

Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 21 Jun · 7:00 AM AEST

Andre Lima

11-0-0 Kickboxer Orthodox 3-fight win streak

▼

Model Favourite

Andre Lima

85.7 %

050100

90% CI · 41 – 100 · σ 0.053 · High

Why this pick

Andre Lima eats 11.7 fewer strikes per minute
Andre Lima rides a 3-fight longer win streak
Andre Lima lands 1.1 more sig strikes per minute
Andre Lima rides a 3-fight win streak (Kevin Borjas: 0)
Andre Lima out-volumes opponents at 13.5 sig/min vs Kevin Borjas's 12.4

Method Breakdown

Borjas Lima

KO/TKO 4.5

15.0

Submission 1.4

9.9

Decision 8.4

60.8

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Key Stats career avg

Borjas Lima

SLpM 12.4

13.5

Sig Acc 44%

60%

Str Def 50%

55%

TD/min 0.00

0.31

Finish 50%

33%

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours Lima

Andre Lima eats 11.7 fewer strikes per minute
02 Win streak favours Lima

Andre Lima rides a 3-fight longer win streak
03 Striking volume favours Lima

Andre Lima lands 1.1 more sig strikes per minute
04 Control time favours Lima

Andre Lima controls 104% more cage time
05 Takedown volume favours Lima

Andre Lima hits 0.31 more takedowns per minute
06 KO rate favours Borjas

Kevin Borjas finishes by KO 50% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed

SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.

UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres

2026

JUN

UPCOMING CARD

UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres

National Gymnastics Arena, Baku, Azerbaijan

Bouts

Rafael Fiziev

13-5-0 Muay Thai Switch Stance 1 loss

33.6% | 66.4%

Lightweight 5 rds
⏱ Sun 28 Jun · 2:00 AM AEST

Manuel Torres

17-3-0 MMA Switch Stance 2-fight win streak

▼

Model Favourite

Manuel Torres

66.4 %

050100

90% CI · 53 – 80 · σ 0.068 · High

Why this pick

Manuel Torres eats 11.3 fewer strikes per minute
Rafael Fiziev lands 8.5 more sig strikes per minute
Manuel Torres rides a 2-fight longer win streak
Rafael Fiziev out-volumes opponents at 15.2 sig/min vs Manuel Torres's 6.7
Manuel Torres KOs 83% of opponents — Rafael Fiziev has been KO'd in 25% of losses

Method Breakdown

Fiziev Torres

KO/TKO 16.7

39.6

Submission 2.4

10.2

Decision 14.4

16.7

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Key Stats career avg

Fiziev Torres

SLpM 15.2

6.7

Sig Acc 53%

60%

Str Def 50%

51%

TD/min 0.18

0.13

Finish 50%

100%

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours Torres

Manuel Torres eats 11.3 fewer strikes per minute
02 Striking volume favours Fiziev

Rafael Fiziev lands 8.5 more sig strikes per minute
03 Win streak favours Torres

Manuel Torres rides a 2-fight longer win streak
04 Finish rate favours Torres

Manuel Torres finishes 50% more of their wins
05 KO rate favours Torres

Manuel Torres finishes by KO 33% more often
06 Submission rate favours Torres

Manuel Torres taps opponents 17% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed

SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.

Michel Pereira

32-14-0 Striker Orthodox 1 win

40.2% | 59.8%

Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 28 Jun · 2:00 AM AEST

Shara Magomedov

16-1-0 Orthodox 1 win

▼

Model Favourite

Shara Magomedov

59.8 %

050100

90% CI · 52 – 68 · σ 0.040 · High

Why this pick

Shara Magomedov eats 2.7 fewer strikes per minute
Shara Magomedov lands 3.9 more sig strikes per minute
Michel Pereira hits 0.23 more takedowns per minute
Shara Magomedov out-volumes opponents at 17.9 sig/min vs Michel Pereira's 14.0
Shara Magomedov has never been finished in 6 fights

Method Breakdown

Pereira Magomedov

KO/TKO 7.7

23.1

Submission 10.8

0.8

Decision 21.7

35.9

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Key Stats career avg

Pereira Magomedov

SLpM 14.0

17.9

Sig Acc 51%

63%

Str Def 51%

44%

TD/min 0.23

0.00

Finish 50%

33%

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours Magomedov

Shara Magomedov eats 2.7 fewer strikes per minute
02 Striking volume favours Magomedov

Shara Magomedov lands 3.9 more sig strikes per minute
03 Takedown volume favours Pereira

Michel Pereira hits 0.23 more takedowns per minute
04 Submission rate favours Pereira

Michel Pereira taps opponents 21% more often
05 Finish rate favours Pereira

Michel Pereira finishes 17% more of their wins
06 Control time favours Pereira

Michel Pereira controls 16% more cage time

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed

SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.

TBA

— | —

3 rds ⏱ Sat 27 Jun · 11:00 PM AEST

Opponent TBA

▼

⟁ This fight is on the upcoming schedule but stats and predictions aren't available yet. The matrix will compute them closer to event time.

UFC 329

2026

JUL

predictions soon

UFC 329

T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, USA

Bouts

TBA

— | —

5 rds ⏱ Sun 12 Jul · 8:00 AM AEST

Opponent TBA

▼

⟁ This fight is on the upcoming schedule but stats and predictions aren't available yet. The matrix will compute them closer to event time.

TBA

— | —

3 rds ⏱ Sun 12 Jul · 6:00 AM AEST

Opponent TBA

▼

⟁ This fight is on the upcoming schedule but stats and predictions aren't available yet. The matrix will compute them closer to event time.

TBA

— | —

3 rds ⏱ Sun 12 Jul · 8:00 AM AEST

Gable Steveson

0-0-0 nan

▼

⟁ Win prediction & SportsBet odds will populate closer to event night. Career stats below.

Fighter Statistics

	TBA	Steveson
Career record	—	0-0-0
Last 3 win %	—	—
Finish rate	—	—
KO/TKO rate	—	—
Sub rate	—	—
Sig strikes / min ↑	—	—

Predicted Outcomes

Win probability and method/round breakdowns appear here once the matrix processes this card.

Tip: stats above are computed from each fighter's full UFC history. Compare KO/TKO rate vs sub rate to gauge likely method even before predictions land.

UFC Fight Night: Belgrade

2026

AUG

predictions soon

UFC Fight Night: Belgrade

Bouts

TBA

— | —

5 rds ⏱ Sun 2 Aug · 5:00 AM AEST

Opponent TBA

▼

⟁ This fight is on the upcoming schedule but stats and predictions aren't available yet. The matrix will compute them closer to event time.

TBA

— | —

3 rds ⏱ Sun 2 Aug · 2:00 AM AEST

Opponent TBA

▼

⟁ This fight is on the upcoming schedule but stats and predictions aren't available yet. The matrix will compute them closer to event time.

⟁ Top Value Bets

Total stake $

Joshua Van wins by KO/TKO

↗ Tatsuro Taira vs Joshua Van · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

25% Model

126.00 SB Odds

+3084.0% Edge

+$15750 If Wins ($126)

Khamzat Chimaev wins by KO/TKO

↗ Sean Strickland vs Khamzat Chimaev · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

25% Model

101.00 SB Odds

+2387.6% Edge

+$9700 If Wins ($97)

Sean Strickland wins by KO/TKO

↗ Sean Strickland vs Khamzat Chimaev · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

8% Model

251.00 SB Odds

+1847.8% Edge

+$18750 If Wins ($75)

Tatsuro Taira wins by KO/TKO

↗ Tatsuro Taira vs Joshua Van · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

11% Model

176.00 SB Odds

+1823.7% Edge

+$12950 If Wins ($74)

Joshua Van wins by SUB

↗ Tatsuro Taira vs Joshua Van · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

3% Model

501.00 SB Odds

+1568.3% Edge

+$32000 If Wins ($64)

Khamzat Chimaev wins by SUB

↗ Sean Strickland vs Khamzat Chimaev · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

22% Model

61.00 SB Odds

+1224.9% Edge

+$3000 If Wins ($50)

Tatsuro Taira wins by SUB

↗ Tatsuro Taira vs Joshua Van · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

23% Model

41.00 SB Odds

+847.9% Edge

+$1400 If Wins ($35)

Roman Kopylov wins by KO/TKO

↗ Roman Kopylov vs Marco Tulio · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

23% Model

23.00 SB Odds

+423.2% Edge

+$374 If Wins ($17)

Khamzat Chimaev wins by DEC

↗ Sean Strickland vs Khamzat Chimaev · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

29% Model

15.00 SB Odds

+333.0% Edge

+$196 If Wins ($14)

Arnold Allen wins by Submission in R3

↗ Arnold Allen vs Melquizael Costa · UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa

5% Model

71.00 SB Odds

+260.7% Edge

+$770 If Wins ($11)

Joshua Van wins by finish in Round 1

↗ Tatsuro Taira vs Joshua Van · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

28% Model

12.50 SB Odds

+245.0% Edge

+$115 If Wins ($10)

Joshua Van wins by DEC

↗ Tatsuro Taira vs Joshua Van · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

22% Model

15.00 SB Odds

+237.1% Edge

+$140 If Wins ($10)

Sean Strickland wins by DEC

↗ Sean Strickland vs Khamzat Chimaev · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

15% Model

23.00 SB Odds

+235.1% Edge

+$220 If Wins ($10)

Ozzy Diaz wins by DEC

↗ Ozzy Diaz vs Ateba Gautier · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

19% Model

16.00 SB Odds

+211.8% Edge

+$135 If Wins ($9)

Fight goes to Decision

↗ Ozzy Diaz vs Ateba Gautier · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

50% Model

6.00 SB Odds

+202.3% Edge

+$40 If Wins ($8)

Arnold Allen wins by Submission in R2 or R3

↗ Arnold Allen vs Melquizael Costa · UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa

9% Model

34.00 SB Odds

+194.8% Edge

+$264 If Wins ($8)

Ozzy Diaz wins by finish in Round 2

↗ Ozzy Diaz vs Ateba Gautier · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

9% Model

34.00 SB Odds

+193.1% Edge

+$264 If Wins ($8)

Ateba Gautier wins by DEC

↗ Ozzy Diaz vs Ateba Gautier · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

31% Model

9.25 SB Odds

+185.8% Edge

+$66 If Wins ($8)

Sean Strickland wins by finish in Round 1

↗ Sean Strickland vs Khamzat Chimaev · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

11% Model

26.00 SB Odds

+178.5% Edge

+$175 If Wins ($7)

Melquizael Costa wins by finish in Round 3

↗ Arnold Allen vs Melquizael Costa · UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa

23% Model

12.00 SB Odds

+174.6% Edge

+$77 If Wins ($7)

Ilia Topuria wins by DEC

↗ Justin Gaethje vs Ilia Topuria · UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje

20% Model

13.00 SB Odds

+162.6% Edge

+$84 If Wins ($7)

Fight ends by Submission

↗ Arnold Allen vs Melquizael Costa · UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa

20% Model

12.50 SB Odds

+154.8% Edge

+$69 If Wins ($6)

Ozzy Diaz wins by Sub or Decision

↗ Ozzy Diaz vs Ateba Gautier · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

20% Model

12.50 SB Odds

+154.4% Edge

+$69 If Wins ($6)

Arnold Allen wins by SUB

↗ Arnold Allen vs Melquizael Costa · UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa

12% Model

21.00 SB Odds

+148.8% Edge

+$120 If Wins ($6)

Ciryl Gane wins by finish in Round 1

↗ Ciryl Gane vs Alex Pereira · UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje

28% Model

8.75 SB Odds

+148.1% Edge

+$46 If Wins ($6)

Ozzy Diaz wins by finish in Round 1

↗ Ozzy Diaz vs Ateba Gautier · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

16% Model

16.00 SB Odds

+148.0% Edge

+$90 If Wins ($6)

Ozzy Diaz wins by KO or Decision

↗ Ozzy Diaz vs Ateba Gautier · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

26% Model

9.25 SB Odds

+144.6% Edge

+$50 If Wins ($6)

Fight reaches Round 3

↗ Ozzy Diaz vs Ateba Gautier · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

56% Model

4.25 SB Odds

+138.8% Edge

+$20 If Wins ($6)

Fight goes to Decision

↗ Justin Gaethje vs Ilia Topuria · UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje

32% Model

7.25 SB Odds

+134.8% Edge

+$31 If Wins ($5)

Jared Gordon wins by finish in Round 1

↗ Jim Miller vs Jared Gordon · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

38% Model

6.00 SB Odds

+127.0% Edge

+$25 If Wins ($5)

Jeremy Stephens wins by DEC

↗ Jeremy Stephens vs King Green · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

22% Model

10.00 SB Odds

+121.1% Edge

+$45 If Wins ($5)

William Gomis wins by finish in Round 1

↗ Pat Sabatini vs William Gomis · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

26% Model

8.50 SB Odds

+118.5% Edge

+$38 If Wins ($5)

King Green wins by finish in Round 1

↗ Jeremy Stephens vs King Green · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

36% Model

6.00 SB Odds

+114.1% Edge

+$25 If Wins ($5)

Ateba Gautier wins by Sub or Decision

↗ Ozzy Diaz vs Ateba Gautier · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

41% Model

5.20 SB Odds

+114.0% Edge

+$21 If Wins ($5)

Grant Dawson wins by finish in Round 1

↗ Grant Dawson vs Mateusz Rebecki · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

26% Model

8.00 SB Odds

+110.4% Edge

+$35 If Wins ($5)

Arnold Allen wins by finish in Round 3

↗ Arnold Allen vs Melquizael Costa · UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa

20% Model

10.50 SB Odds

+110.0% Edge

+$38 If Wins ($4)

Grant Dawson wins by finish in Round 2

↗ Grant Dawson vs Mateusz Rebecki · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

20% Model

10.50 SB Odds

+107.0% Edge

+$38 If Wins ($4)

Ciryl Gane wins by finish in Round 2

↗ Ciryl Gane vs Alex Pereira · UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje

21% Model

9.75 SB Odds

+105.1% Edge

+$35 If Wins ($4)

Alexander Volkov wins by finish in Round 1

↗ Alexander Volkov vs Waldo Cortes Acosta · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

24% Model

8.50 SB Odds

+104.8% Edge

+$30 If Wins ($4)

Clayton Carpenter wins by finish in Round 1

↗ Clayton Carpenter vs Jose Ochoa · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

22% Model

9.50 SB Odds

+104.5% Edge

+$34 If Wins ($4)

Roman Kopylov wins by finish in Round 1

↗ Roman Kopylov vs Marco Tulio · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

24% Model

8.50 SB Odds

+101.6% Edge

+$30 If Wins ($4)

Sean Strickland wins by finish in Round 3

↗ Sean Strickland vs Khamzat Chimaev · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

6% Model

31.00 SB Odds

+97.2% Edge

+$120 If Wins ($4)

Melquizael Costa wins by SUB

↗ Arnold Allen vs Melquizael Costa · UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa

9% Model

23.00 SB Odds

+96.2% Edge

+$88 If Wins ($4)

Justin Gaethje wins by DEC

↗ Justin Gaethje vs Ilia Topuria · UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje

12% Model

16.00 SB Odds

+95.0% Edge

+$60 If Wins ($4)

Alexander Volkov wins by finish in Round 1

↗ Alexander Volkov vs Waldo Cortes Acosta · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

23% Model

8.50 SB Odds

+94.2% Edge

+$30 If Wins ($4)

Ozzy Diaz wins in R3+ or by Decision

↗ Ozzy Diaz vs Ateba Gautier · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

15% Model

12.50 SB Odds

+91.8% Edge

+$46 If Wins ($4)

William Gomis wins by finish in Round 2

↗ Pat Sabatini vs William Gomis · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

18% Model

10.50 SB Odds

+91.5% Edge

+$38 If Wins ($4)

Fight ends by finish in Round 3

↗ Arnold Allen vs Melquizael Costa · UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa

22% Model

8.75 SB Odds

+90.2% Edge

+$31 If Wins ($4)

Grant Dawson wins by finish in Round 3

↗ Grant Dawson vs Mateusz Rebecki · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

16% Model

12.00 SB Odds

+90.2% Edge

+$44 If Wins ($4)

Jeremy Stephens wins by Sub or Decision

↗ Jeremy Stephens vs King Green · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

22% Model

8.50 SB Odds

+87.9% Edge

+$30 If Wins ($4)

Jared Gordon wins by finish in Round 2

↗ Jim Miller vs Jared Gordon · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

21% Model

8.50 SB Odds

+81.6% Edge

+$22 If Wins ($3)

Waldo Cortes Acosta wins by finish in Round 1

↗ Alexander Volkov vs Waldo Cortes Acosta · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

23% Model

8.00 SB Odds

+80.2% Edge

+$21 If Wins ($3)

Alexander Volkov wins by finish in Round 2

↗ Alexander Volkov vs Waldo Cortes Acosta · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

18% Model

10.00 SB Odds

+78.9% Edge

+$27 If Wins ($3)

Alex Pereira wins by DEC

↗ Ciryl Gane vs Alex Pereira · UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje

22% Model

8.00 SB Odds

+78.7% Edge

+$21 If Wins ($3)

Tatsuro Taira wins by finish in Round 1

↗ Tatsuro Taira vs Joshua Van · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

26% Model

6.75 SB Odds

+78.5% Edge

+$17 If Wins ($3)

Joshua Van wins by KO/TKO in R1

↗ Tatsuro Taira vs Joshua Van · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

14% Model

13.00 SB Odds

+77.6% Edge

+$36 If Wins ($3)

Alexander Volkov wins by finish in Round 2

↗ Alexander Volkov vs Waldo Cortes Acosta · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

18% Model

10.00 SB Odds

+76.6% Edge

+$27 If Wins ($3)

Clayton Carpenter wins by finish in Round 2

↗ Clayton Carpenter vs Jose Ochoa · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

16% Model

11.00 SB Odds

+75.9% Edge

+$30 If Wins ($3)

Ends in Round 3+ / Decision

↗ Justin Gaethje vs Ilia Topuria · UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje

56% Model

3.07 SB Odds

+72.0% Edge

+$6 If Wins ($3)

Justin Gaethje wins by finish in Round 1

↗ Justin Gaethje vs Ilia Topuria · UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje

7% Model

23.00 SB Odds

+71.4% Edge

+$66 If Wins ($3)

Tatsuro Taira wins by DEC

↗ Tatsuro Taira vs Joshua Van · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

15% Model

11.50 SB Odds

+71.1% Edge

+$32 If Wins ($3)

Fight reaches Round 2

↗ Ozzy Diaz vs Ateba Gautier · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

72% Model

2.37 SB Odds

+70.3% Edge

+$4 If Wins ($3)

Yaroslav Amosov wins by finish in Round 2

↗ Yaroslav Amosov vs Joel Alvarez · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

20% Model

8.50 SB Odds

+69.7% Edge

+$22 If Wins ($3)

Waldo Cortes Acosta wins by finish in Round 1

↗ Alexander Volkov vs Waldo Cortes Acosta · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

21% Model

8.00 SB Odds

+69.2% Edge

+$21 If Wins ($3)

Waldo Cortes Acosta wins by finish in Round 2

↗ Alexander Volkov vs Waldo Cortes Acosta · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

17% Model

10.00 SB Odds

+67.1% Edge

+$27 If Wins ($3)

Djorden Santos wins by DEC

↗ Djorden Santos vs Baisangur Susurkaev · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

13% Model

13.00 SB Odds

+65.5% Edge

+$36 If Wins ($3)

Waldo Cortes Acosta wins by finish in Round 2

↗ Alexander Volkov vs Waldo Cortes Acosta · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

16% Model

10.00 SB Odds

+63.5% Edge

+$27 If Wins ($3)

Justin Gaethje wins by Sub or Decision

↗ Justin Gaethje vs Ilia Topuria · UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje

13% Model

12.50 SB Odds

+62.5% Edge

+$34 If Wins ($3)

Fight reaches Round 5

↗ Justin Gaethje vs Ilia Topuria · UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje

35% Model

4.60 SB Odds

+62.0% Edge

+$11 If Wins ($3)

Melquizael Costa wins by finish in Round 2

↗ Arnold Allen vs Melquizael Costa · UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa

16% Model

10.00 SB Odds

+61.5% Edge

+$27 If Wins ($3)

Yaroslav Amosov wins by finish in Round 1

↗ Yaroslav Amosov vs Joel Alvarez · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

27% Model

6.00 SB Odds

+61.3% Edge

+$15 If Wins ($3)

Fight ends by finish in Round 1

↗ Tatsuro Taira vs Joshua Van · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

34% Model

4.75 SB Odds

+60.8% Edge

+$8 If Wins ($2)

King Green wins by finish in Round 3

↗ Jeremy Stephens vs King Green · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

19% Model

8.50 SB Odds

+59.5% Edge

+$15 If Wins ($2)

Djorden Santos wins by Sub or Decision

↗ Djorden Santos vs Baisangur Susurkaev · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

17% Model

9.50 SB Odds

+58.9% Edge

+$17 If Wins ($2)

Melquizael Costa wins by KO/TKO in R3

↗ Arnold Allen vs Melquizael Costa · UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa

8% Model

19.00 SB Odds

+58.7% Edge

+$36 If Wins ($2)

Jose Ochoa wins by finish in Round 2

↗ Clayton Carpenter vs Jose Ochoa · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

19% Model

8.50 SB Odds

+58.6% Edge

+$15 If Wins ($2)

Jim Miller wins by finish in Round 1

↗ Jim Miller vs Jared Gordon · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

17% Model

9.50 SB Odds

+58.0% Edge

+$17 If Wins ($2)

Jeremy Stephens wins in R3+ or by Decision

↗ Jeremy Stephens vs King Green · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

21% Model

7.50 SB Odds

+57.3% Edge

+$13 If Wins ($2)

Roman Kopylov wins by finish in Round 2

↗ Roman Kopylov vs Marco Tulio · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

16% Model

10.00 SB Odds

+55.2% Edge

+$18 If Wins ($2)

Joaquin Buckley wins by DEC

↗ Joaquin Buckley vs Sean Brady · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

23% Model

6.75 SB Odds

+54.6% Edge

+$12 If Wins ($2)

Djorden Santos wins in R3+ or by Decision

↗ Djorden Santos vs Baisangur Susurkaev · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

15% Model

10.00 SB Odds

+53.5% Edge

+$18 If Wins ($2)

Clayton Carpenter wins by KO or Sub

↗ Clayton Carpenter vs Jose Ochoa · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

26% Model

5.90 SB Odds

+52.6% Edge

+$10 If Wins ($2)

Sean Brady wins by finish in Round 1

↗ Joaquin Buckley vs Sean Brady · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

25% Model

6.00 SB Odds

+52.4% Edge

+$10 If Wins ($2)

Melquizael Costa wins in R3+ or by Decision

↗ Arnold Allen vs Melquizael Costa · UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa

45% Model

3.35 SB Odds

+51.3% Edge

+$5 If Wins ($2)

Over 2.5 rounds

↗ Ozzy Diaz vs Ateba Gautier · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

50% Model

3.00 SB Odds

+51.2% Edge

+$4 If Wins ($2)

Jose Ochoa wins by finish in Round 1

↗ Clayton Carpenter vs Jose Ochoa · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

25% Model

6.00 SB Odds

+50.8% Edge

+$10 If Wins ($2)

Joaquin Buckley wins in R3+ or by Decision

↗ Joaquin Buckley vs Sean Brady · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

32% Model

4.70 SB Odds

+49.5% Edge

+$7 If Wins ($2)

Sean Strickland wins by Sub or Decision

↗ Sean Strickland vs Khamzat Chimaev · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

17% Model

8.75 SB Odds

+49.0% Edge

+$16 If Wins ($2)

Yaroslav Amosov wins by Submission in R1 or R2

↗ Yaroslav Amosov vs Joel Alvarez · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

20% Model

7.50 SB Odds

+48.8% Edge

+$13 If Wins ($2)

Joel Alvarez wins by DEC

↗ Yaroslav Amosov vs Joel Alvarez · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

23% Model

6.50 SB Odds

+48.8% Edge

+$11 If Wins ($2)

Yaroslav Amosov wins by SUB

↗ Yaroslav Amosov vs Joel Alvarez · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

24% Model

6.25 SB Odds

+47.0% Edge

+$10 If Wins ($2)

Ends in Round 3+ / Decision

↗ Sean Strickland vs Khamzat Chimaev · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

65% Model

2.25 SB Odds

+47.0% Edge

+$2 If Wins ($2)

Fight goes to decision

↗ Ciryl Gane vs Alex Pereira · UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje

48% Model

3.05 SB Odds

+46.9% Edge

+$4 If Wins ($2)

Roman Kopylov wins by KO or Sub

↗ Roman Kopylov vs Marco Tulio · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

30% Model

4.90 SB Odds

+46.4% Edge

+$8 If Wins ($2)

Joshua Van wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2

↗ Tatsuro Taira vs Joshua Van · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

18% Model

8.00 SB Odds

+46.2% Edge

+$14 If Wins ($2)

Marco Tulio wins by DEC

↗ Roman Kopylov vs Marco Tulio · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

35% Model

4.20 SB Odds

+45.3% Edge

+$6 If Wins ($2)

Alex Pereira wins by Sub or Decision

↗ Ciryl Gane vs Alex Pereira · UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje

23% Model

6.25 SB Odds

+44.6% Edge

+$10 If Wins ($2)

Baisangur Susurkaev wins by finish in Round 3

↗ Djorden Santos vs Baisangur Susurkaev · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

22% Model

6.50 SB Odds

+43.7% Edge

+$11 If Wins ($2)

Jeremy Stephens wins by finish in Round 1

↗ Jeremy Stephens vs King Green · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

15% Model

9.50 SB Odds

+43.0% Edge

+$17 If Wins ($2)

Grant Dawson wins by KO or Sub

↗ Grant Dawson vs Mateusz Rebecki · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

30% Model

4.70 SB Odds

+42.6% Edge

+$7 If Wins ($2)

Mateusz Rebecki wins by DEC

↗ Grant Dawson vs Mateusz Rebecki · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

23% Model

6.25 SB Odds

+42.4% Edge

+$10 If Wins ($2)

Grant Dawson wins by Submission in R2 or R3

↗ Grant Dawson vs Mateusz Rebecki · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

12% Model

12.00 SB Odds

+42.1% Edge

+$22 If Wins ($2)

Sean Brady wins by finish in Round 2

↗ Joaquin Buckley vs Sean Brady · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

19% Model

7.50 SB Odds

+41.4% Edge

+$13 If Wins ($2)

Arnold Allen wins by finish in Round 2

↗ Arnold Allen vs Melquizael Costa · UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa

14% Model

10.00 SB Odds

+41.2% Edge

+$18 If Wins ($2)

Clayton Carpenter wins by KO/TKO

↗ Clayton Carpenter vs Jose Ochoa · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

11% Model

13.00 SB Odds

+40.4% Edge

+$24 If Wins ($2)

Mateusz Rebecki wins by Sub or Decision

↗ Grant Dawson vs Mateusz Rebecki · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

27% Model

5.10 SB Odds

+39.7% Edge

+$8 If Wins ($2)

Grant Dawson wins by SUB

↗ Grant Dawson vs Mateusz Rebecki · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

21% Model

6.75 SB Odds

+39.0% Edge

+$12 If Wins ($2)

Ciryl Gane wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2

↗ Ciryl Gane vs Alex Pereira · UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje

21% Model

6.50 SB Odds

+38.8% Edge

+$11 If Wins ($2)

Joaquin Buckley wins by finish in Round 1

↗ Joaquin Buckley vs Sean Brady · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

21% Model

6.50 SB Odds

+37.9% Edge

+$11 If Wins ($2)

Marco Tulio wins by finish in Round 1

↗ Roman Kopylov vs Marco Tulio · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

28% Model

5.00 SB Odds

+37.6% Edge

+$8 If Wins ($2)

William Gomis wins by Sub or Decision

↗ Pat Sabatini vs William Gomis · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

37% Model

3.75 SB Odds

+37.5% Edge

+$6 If Wins ($2)

Fight goes to decision

↗ Djorden Santos vs Baisangur Susurkaev · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

51% Model

2.67 SB Odds

+36.7% Edge

+$2 If Wins ($1)

Ilia Topuria wins by Sub or Decision

↗ Justin Gaethje vs Ilia Topuria · UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje

33% Model

4.20 SB Odds

+36.6% Edge

+$3 If Wins ($1)

Joel Alvarez wins by KO or Decision

↗ Yaroslav Amosov vs Joel Alvarez · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

36% Model

3.80 SB Odds

+36.5% Edge

+$3 If Wins ($1)

Fight goes to decision

↗ Sean Strickland vs Khamzat Chimaev · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

43% Model

3.14 SB Odds

+36.4% Edge

+$2 If Wins ($1)

Fight ends by Submission

↗ Grant Dawson vs Mateusz Rebecki · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

25% Model

5.40 SB Odds

+36.0% Edge

+$4 If Wins ($1)

Joel Alvarez wins by finish in Round 2

↗ Yaroslav Amosov vs Joel Alvarez · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

16% Model

8.50 SB Odds

+35.9% Edge

+$8 If Wins ($1)

Baisangur Susurkaev wins by finish in Round 1

↗ Djorden Santos vs Baisangur Susurkaev · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

39% Model

3.50 SB Odds

+35.7% Edge

+$2 If Wins ($1)

Clayton Carpenter wins by SUB

↗ Clayton Carpenter vs Jose Ochoa · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

15% Model

9.00 SB Odds

+35.5% Edge

+$8 If Wins ($1)

Joaquin Buckley wins by Sub or Decision

↗ Joaquin Buckley vs Sean Brady · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

23% Model

5.90 SB Odds

+35.1% Edge

+$5 If Wins ($1)

Roman Kopylov wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2

↗ Roman Kopylov vs Marco Tulio · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

19% Model

7.00 SB Odds

+35.0% Edge

+$6 If Wins ($1)

Ciryl Gane wins by KO/TKO in R1

↗ Ciryl Gane vs Alex Pereira · UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje

12% Model

11.00 SB Odds

+34.7% Edge

+$10 If Wins ($1)

Clayton Carpenter wins by Submission in R1 or R2

↗ Clayton Carpenter vs Jose Ochoa · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

12% Model

11.00 SB Odds

+34.7% Edge

+$10 If Wins ($1)

Ilia Topuria wins in R4+ or by Decision

↗ Justin Gaethje vs Ilia Topuria · UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje

33% Model

4.10 SB Odds

+34.3% Edge

+$3 If Wins ($1)

Joaquin Buckley wins by finish in Round 2

↗ Joaquin Buckley vs Sean Brady · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

16% Model

8.50 SB Odds

+34.0% Edge

+$8 If Wins ($1)

Khamzat Chimaev wins by KO/TKO in R1, R2 or R3

↗ Sean Strickland vs Khamzat Chimaev · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

21% Model

6.25 SB Odds

+33.9% Edge

+$5 If Wins ($1)

Khamzat Chimaev wins by KO or Decision

↗ Sean Strickland vs Khamzat Chimaev · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

54% Model

2.50 SB Odds

+33.8% Edge

+$2 If Wins ($1)

William Gomis wins by DEC

↗ Pat Sabatini vs William Gomis · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

32% Model

4.10 SB Odds

+32.6% Edge

+$3 If Wins ($1)

Under 2.5 rounds

↗ Alexander Volkov vs Waldo Cortes Acosta · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

48% Model

2.75 SB Odds

+32.6% Edge

+$2 If Wins ($1)

Joshua Van wins by KO/TKO in R1, R2 or R3

↗ Tatsuro Taira vs Joshua Van · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

22% Model

6.00 SB Odds

+31.8% Edge

+$5 If Wins ($1)

Finish before Round 3

↗ Tatsuro Taira vs Joshua Van · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

45% Model

2.90 SB Odds

+31.3% Edge

+$2 If Wins ($1)

Under 2.5 rounds

↗ Justin Gaethje vs Ilia Topuria · UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje

59% Model

2.20 SB Odds

+30.5% Edge

+$1 If Wins ($1)

Khamzat Chimaev wins by finish in Round 3

↗ Sean Strickland vs Khamzat Chimaev · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

19% Model

6.75 SB Odds

+30.2% Edge

+$6 If Wins ($1)

Alexander Volkov wins by KO or Sub

↗ Alexander Volkov vs Waldo Cortes Acosta · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

29% Model

4.50 SB Odds

+29.9% Edge

+$4 If Wins ($1)

Pat Sabatini wins by finish in Round 1

↗ Pat Sabatini vs William Gomis · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

22% Model

6.00 SB Odds

+29.8% Edge

+$5 If Wins ($1)

Joel Alvarez wins by finish in Round 1

↗ Yaroslav Amosov vs Joel Alvarez · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

22% Model

6.00 SB Odds

+29.2% Edge

+$5 If Wins ($1)

Fight goes to decision

↗ Joaquin Buckley vs Sean Brady · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

63% Model

2.05 SB Odds

+29.0% Edge

+$1 If Wins ($1)

Jeremy Stephens wins by KO or Decision

↗ Jeremy Stephens vs King Green · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

30% Model

4.30 SB Odds

+27.5% Edge

+$3 If Wins ($1)

William Gomis wins by KO or Decision

↗ Pat Sabatini vs William Gomis · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

50% Model

2.55 SB Odds

+27.5% Edge

+$2 If Wins ($1)

Baisangur Susurkaev wins by Sub or Decision

↗ Djorden Santos vs Baisangur Susurkaev · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

58% Model

2.18 SB Odds

+26.9% Edge

+$1 If Wins ($1)

Fight reaches Round 5

↗ Ciryl Gane vs Alex Pereira · UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje

50% Model

2.53 SB Odds

+26.8% Edge

+$2 If Wins ($1)

Djorden Santos wins by KO or Decision

↗ Djorden Santos vs Baisangur Susurkaev · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

20% Model

6.50 SB Odds

+26.8% Edge

+$6 If Wins ($1)

Ciryl Gane wins by KO/TKO in R1, R2 or R3

↗ Ciryl Gane vs Alex Pereira · UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje

25% Model

5.00 SB Odds

+26.5% Edge

+$4 If Wins ($1)

Grant Dawson wins by Submission in R1 or R2

↗ Grant Dawson vs Mateusz Rebecki · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

15% Model

8.25 SB Odds

+26.3% Edge

+$7 If Wins ($1)

Melquizael Costa wins by KO or Sub

↗ Arnold Allen vs Melquizael Costa · UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa

28% Model

4.50 SB Odds

+26.0% Edge

+$4 If Wins ($1)

Fight ends by Submission

↗ Djorden Santos vs Baisangur Susurkaev · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

24% Model

5.30 SB Odds

+25.7% Edge

+$4 If Wins ($1)

William Gomis wins in R3+ or by Decision

↗ Pat Sabatini vs William Gomis · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

35% Model

3.60 SB Odds

+25.0% Edge

+$3 If Wins ($1)

Fight reaches Round 4

↗ Justin Gaethje vs Ilia Topuria · UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje

41% Model

3.07 SB Odds

+24.9% Edge

+$2 If Wins ($1)

Fight reaches Round 3

↗ Djorden Santos vs Baisangur Susurkaev · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

65% Model

1.90 SB Odds

+24.1% Edge

+$1 If Wins ($1)

Alexander Volkov wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2

↗ Alexander Volkov vs Waldo Cortes Acosta · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

18% Model

6.75 SB Odds

+24.0% Edge

+$6 If Wins ($1)

Joshua Van wins by Sub or Decision

↗ Tatsuro Taira vs Joshua Van · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

26% Model

4.80 SB Odds

+23.8% Edge

+$4 If Wins ($1)

Fight ends by Submission

↗ Clayton Carpenter vs Jose Ochoa · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

21% Model

6.00 SB Odds

+23.7% Edge

+$5 If Wins ($1)

Baisangur Susurkaev wins by SUB

↗ Djorden Santos vs Baisangur Susurkaev · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

20% Model

6.25 SB Odds

+23.2% Edge

+$5 If Wins ($1)

Baisangur Susurkaev wins by Decision

↗ Djorden Santos vs Baisangur Susurkaev · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

38% Model

3.20 SB Odds

+23.1% Edge

+$2 If Wins ($1)

Fight ends by KO/TKO

↗ Sean Strickland vs Khamzat Chimaev · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

32% Model

3.75 SB Odds

+21.5% Edge

+$3 If Wins ($1)

Finish before Round 3

↗ Alexander Volkov vs Waldo Cortes Acosta · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

39% Model

3.11 SB Odds

+21.4% Edge

+$2 If Wins ($1)

Fight reaches Round 5

↗ Sean Strickland vs Khamzat Chimaev · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

46% Model

2.65 SB Odds

+20.8% Edge

+$2 If Wins ($1)

Alexander Volkov wins by KO/TKO

↗ Alexander Volkov vs Waldo Cortes Acosta · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

23% Model

5.30 SB Odds

+20.3% Edge

+$4 If Wins ($1)

Ciryl Gane wins by Sub or Decision

↗ Ciryl Gane vs Alex Pereira · UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje

36% Model

3.35 SB Odds

+20.2% Edge

+$2 If Wins ($1)

Fight ends by KO/TKO

↗ Alexander Volkov vs Waldo Cortes Acosta · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

43% Model

2.75 SB Odds

+19.2% Edge

+$2 If Wins ($1)

Melquizael Costa wins by Sub or Decision

↗ Arnold Allen vs Melquizael Costa · UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa

34% Model

3.50 SB Odds

+18.6% Edge

+$2 If Wins ($1)

Khamzat Chimaev wins in R4+ or by Decision

↗ Sean Strickland vs Khamzat Chimaev · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

38% Model

3.10 SB Odds

+18.5% Edge

+$2 If Wins ($1)

Sean Strickland wins by KO or Decision

↗ Sean Strickland vs Khamzat Chimaev · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

22% Model

5.30 SB Odds

+18.3% Edge

+$4 If Wins ($1)

Jim Miller wins by Sub or Decision

↗ Jim Miller vs Jared Gordon · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

25% Model

4.75 SB Odds

+18.1% Edge

+$4 If Wins ($1)

Fight goes to decision

↗ Roman Kopylov vs Marco Tulio · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

51% Model

2.31 SB Odds

+17.9% Edge

+$1 If Wins ($1)

Mateusz Rebecki wins in R3+ or by Decision

↗ Grant Dawson vs Mateusz Rebecki · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

25% Model

4.75 SB Odds

+17.4% Edge

+$4 If Wins ($1)

Finish before Round 4

↗ Tatsuro Taira vs Joshua Van · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

54% Model

2.15 SB Odds

+17.1% Edge

+$1 If Wins ($1)

Khamzat Chimaev wins by finish in Round 1

↗ Sean Strickland vs Khamzat Chimaev · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

32% Model

3.60 SB Odds

+17.0% Edge

+$3 If Wins ($1)

Joshua Van wins by KO or Decision

↗ Tatsuro Taira vs Joshua Van · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

48% Model

2.45 SB Odds

+17.0% Edge

+$1 If Wins ($1)

Joel Alvarez wins in R3+ or by Decision

↗ Yaroslav Amosov vs Joel Alvarez · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

23% Model

5.00 SB Odds

+16.9% Edge

+$4 If Wins ($1)

Ciryl Gane wins by DEC

↗ Ciryl Gane vs Alex Pereira · UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje

26% Model

4.50 SB Odds

+16.2% Edge

+$4 If Wins ($1)

Sean Brady wins by Decision

↗ Joaquin Buckley vs Sean Brady · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

40% Model

2.87 SB Odds

+14.9% Edge

+$2 If Wins ($1)

Yaroslav Amosov wins by KO or Sub

↗ Yaroslav Amosov vs Joel Alvarez · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

35% Model

3.30 SB Odds

+14.3% Edge

+$2 If Wins ($1)

Fight reaches Round 4

↗ Sean Strickland vs Khamzat Chimaev · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

51% Model

2.25 SB Odds

+14.3% Edge

+$1 If Wins ($1)

Joaquin Buckley wins by KO or Decision

↗ Joaquin Buckley vs Sean Brady · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

46% Model

2.50 SB Odds

+13.8% Edge

+$2 If Wins ($1)

Fight reaches Round 2

↗ Arnold Allen vs Melquizael Costa · UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa

100% Model

1.14 SB Odds

+13.4% Edge

+$0 If Wins ($1)

Fight reaches Round 3

↗ Arnold Allen vs Melquizael Costa · UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa

85% Model

1.34 SB Odds

+13.4% Edge

+$0 If Wins ($1)

Ciryl Gane wins by KO or Decision

↗ Ciryl Gane vs Alex Pereira · UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje

53% Model

2.12 SB Odds

+12.7% Edge

+$1 If Wins ($1)

Fight reaches Round 3

↗ Joaquin Buckley vs Sean Brady · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

70% Model

1.61 SB Odds

+12.5% Edge

+$1 If Wins ($1)

Baisangur Susurkaev wins in R3+ or by Decision

↗ Djorden Santos vs Baisangur Susurkaev · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

50% Model

2.25 SB Odds

+12.4% Edge

+$1 If Wins ($1)

Waldo Cortes Acosta wins by KO or Decision

↗ Alexander Volkov vs Waldo Cortes Acosta · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

48% Model

2.30 SB Odds

+9.3% Edge

+$0 If Wins ($0)

Every bet where our model's probability exceeds the bookmaker's implied probability by ≥ 3%, sorted by EV.

⟁ Past Events — Predictions vs. Actual Results

UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates

2026-05-02

Carlos Prates

23-7-0

Winner

Carlos Prates

KO/TKO · R3

Jack Della Maddalena

18-3-0

▼

Model Prediction

no prediction data for this bout

Actual Result

Carlos Prates

KO/TKO·R3

Actual Fight Stats

	Carlos Prates	Jack Della Maddalena
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	104/193	41/76
Total strikes landed	104	53
Knockdowns	3	0
Takedowns (landed/att)	0/0	2/5
Submission attempts	0	0
Control time	0:42	1:13

Beneil Dariush

23-7-1

Winner

Quillan Salkilld

KO/TKO · R1

Quillan Salkilld

11-1-0

▼

Model Prediction

no prediction data for this bout

Actual Result

Quillan Salkilld

KO/TKO·R1

Actual Fight Stats

	Beneil Dariush	Quillan Salkilld
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	3/9	12/19
Total strikes landed	4	15
Knockdowns	0	1
Takedowns (landed/att)	2/5	0/2
Submission attempts	0	0
Control time	2:32	0:20

Tim Elliott

22-13-1

Winner

Steve Erceg

Decision (U) · R3

Steve Erceg

13-4-0

▼

Model Prediction

no prediction data for this bout

Actual Result

Steve Erceg

Decision·R3

Actual Fight Stats

	Tim Elliott	Steve Erceg
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	90/261	136/254
Total strikes landed	93	136
Knockdowns	0	0
Takedowns (landed/att)	2/11	1/3
Submission attempts	0	0
Control time	0:34	0:29

Marwan Rahiki

9-0-0

Winner

Marwan Rahiki

KO/TKO · R1

Ollie Schmid

4-2-0

▼

Model Prediction

no prediction data for this bout

Actual Result

Marwan Rahiki

KO/TKO·R1

Actual Fight Stats

	Marwan Rahiki	Ollie Schmid
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	22/40	9/30
Total strikes landed	22	9
Knockdowns	1	0
Takedowns (landed/att)	0/0	0/0
Submission attempts	0	0
Control time	0:04	0:00

Shamil Gaziev

14-2-0

Winner

Brando Peričić

KO/TKO · R2

Brando Peričić

6-1-0

▼

Model Prediction

no prediction data for this bout

Actual Result

Brando Peričić

KO/TKO·R2

Actual Fight Stats

	Shamil Gaziev	Brando Peričić
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	41/100	89/163
Total strikes landed	51	100
Knockdowns	0	1
Takedowns (landed/att)	1/2	0/0
Submission attempts	0	0
Control time	3:36	0:00

Tai Tuivasa

15-9-0

Winner

Louie Sutherland

Decision (U) · R3

Louie Sutherland

10-5-0

▼

Model Prediction

no prediction data for this bout

Actual Result

Louie Sutherland

Decision·R3

Actual Fight Stats

	Tai Tuivasa	Louie Sutherland
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	13/22	21/25
Total strikes landed	27	111
Knockdowns	0	0
Takedowns (landed/att)	0/0	5/11
Submission attempts	0	0
Control time	0:42	11:45

Robert Bryczek

18-6-0

Winner

Cam Rowston

Decision (U) · R3

Cam Rowston

3-0-0

▼

Model Prediction

no prediction data for this bout

Actual Result

Cam Rowston

Decision·R3

Actual Fight Stats

	Robert Bryczek	Cam Rowston
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	17/37	79/150
Total strikes landed	39	125
Knockdowns	0	0
Takedowns (landed/att)	0/0	3/7
Submission attempts	1	0
Control time	0:05	10:10

Junior Tafa

6-5-0

Winner

Junior Tafa

KO/TKO · R1

Kevin Christian

9-3-0

▼

Model Prediction

no prediction data for this bout

Actual Result

Junior Tafa

KO/TKO·R1

Actual Fight Stats

	Junior Tafa	Kevin Christian
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	21/31	13/21
Total strikes landed	22	13
Knockdowns	0	0
Takedowns (landed/att)	0/0	0/2
Submission attempts	0	0
Control time	0:09	0:00

Gerald Meerschaert

37-21-0

Winner

Jacob Malkoun

Decision (U) · R3

Jacob Malkoun

9-3-0

▼

Model Prediction

no prediction data for this bout

Actual Result

Jacob Malkoun

Decision·R3

Actual Fight Stats

	Gerald Meerschaert	Jacob Malkoun
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	32/76	36/82
Total strikes landed	53	54
Knockdowns	0	0
Takedowns (landed/att)	0/3	3/3
Submission attempts	3	0
Control time	4:23	2:17

Vince Morales

16-10-0

Winner

Colby Thicknesse

Decision (U) · R3

Colby Thicknesse

8-1-0

▼

Model Prediction

no prediction data for this bout

Actual Result

Colby Thicknesse

Decision·R3

Actual Fight Stats

	Vince Morales	Colby Thicknesse
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	48/121	46/117
Total strikes landed	56	57
Knockdowns	0	0
Takedowns (landed/att)	2/2	0/6
Submission attempts	0	4
Control time	3:34	3:01

Wes Schultz

8-3-0

Winner

Wes Schultz

SUB · R3

Ben Johnston

0-1-0

▼

Model Prediction

no prediction data for this bout

Actual Result

Wes Schultz

Submission·R3

Actual Fight Stats

	Wes Schultz	Ben Johnston
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	12/17	12/16
Total strikes landed	22	38
Knockdowns	1	0
Takedowns (landed/att)	0/3	2/2
Submission attempts	5	0
Control time	1:37	9:16

Themba Gorimbo

14-6-0

Winner

Jonathan Micallef

Decision (S) · R3

Jonathan Micallef

9-1-0

▼

Model Prediction

no prediction data for this bout

Actual Result

Jonathan Micallef

Decision·R3

Actual Fight Stats

	Themba Gorimbo	Jonathan Micallef
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	39/90	55/112
Total strikes landed	74	83
Knockdowns	0	0
Takedowns (landed/att)	2/5	1/4
Submission attempts	0	0
Control time	5:25	3:26

Dom Mar Fan

9-2-0

Winner

Kody Steele

SUB · R1

Kody Steele

7-1-0

▼

Model Prediction

no prediction data for this bout

Actual Result

Kody Steele

Submission·R1

Actual Fight Stats

	Dom Mar Fan	Kody Steele
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	1/2	1/1
Total strikes landed	3	19
Knockdowns	0	0
Takedowns (landed/att)	0/0	1/1
Submission attempts	0	1
Control time	0:28	1:44

UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal

2026-04-25

Aljamain Sterling

25-5-0

Winner

Aljamain Sterling

Decision (U) · R5

Youssef Zalal

18-5-1

▼

Model Prediction

no prediction data for this bout

Actual Result

Aljamain Sterling

Decision·R5

Actual Fight Stats

	Aljamain Sterling	Youssef Zalal
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	46/89	35/65
Total strikes landed	220	61
Knockdowns	0	0
Takedowns (landed/att)	6/11	0/0
Submission attempts	0	0
Control time	13:49	3:59

Joselyne Edwards

17-6-0

Winner

Joselyne Edwards

Decision (U) · R3

Norma Dumont

13-2-0

▼

Model Prediction

no prediction data for this bout

Actual Result

Joselyne Edwards

Decision·R3

Actual Fight Stats

	Joselyne Edwards	Norma Dumont
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	70/152	51/100
Total strikes landed	121	66
Knockdowns	0	0
Takedowns (landed/att)	0/3	0/1
Submission attempts	0	0
Control time	2:21	2:09

Alexander Hernandez

18-8-0

Winner

Rafa Garcia

Decision (U) · R3

Rafa Garcia

18-4-0

▼

Model Prediction

no prediction data for this bout

Actual Result

Rafa Garcia

Decision·R3

Actual Fight Stats

	Alexander Hernandez	Rafa Garcia
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	50/145	59/169
Total strikes landed	54	79
Knockdowns	0	0
Takedowns (landed/att)	0/1	4/7
Submission attempts	0	0
Control time	0:00	1:50

Davey Grant

17-8-0

Winner

Davey Grant

Decision (U) · R3

Adrian Luna Martinetti

0-1-0

▼

Model Prediction

no prediction data for this bout

Actual Result

Davey Grant

Decision·R3

Actual Fight Stats

	Davey Grant	Adrian Luna Martinetti
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	162/307	99/196
Total strikes landed	164	100
Knockdowns	0	0
Takedowns (landed/att)	0/1	1/5
Submission attempts	0	0
Control time	0:02	0:43

Raoni Barcelos

21-5-0

Winner

Raoni Barcelos

Decision (S) · R3

Montel Jackson

15-3-0

▼

Model Prediction

no prediction data for this bout

Actual Result

Raoni Barcelos

Decision·R3

Actual Fight Stats

	Raoni Barcelos	Montel Jackson
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	21/38	35/66
Total strikes landed	33	72
Knockdowns	0	0
Takedowns (landed/att)	6/18	0/0
Submission attempts	0	0
Control time	7:45	0:23

Ryan Spann

24-11-0

Winner

Ryan Spann

KO/TKO · R2

Marcus Buchecha

5-3-1

▼

Model Prediction

no prediction data for this bout

Actual Result

Ryan Spann

KO/TKO·R2

Actual Fight Stats

	Ryan Spann	Marcus Buchecha
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	15/27	8/13
Total strikes landed	20	8
Knockdowns	0	0
Takedowns (landed/att)	0/0	1/7
Submission attempts	0	0
Control time	2:56	1:09

Eric McConico

11-4-1

Winner

Eric McConico

Decision (U) · R3

Rodolfo Vieira

11-5-0

▼

Model Prediction

no prediction data for this bout

Actual Result

Eric McConico

Decision·R3

Actual Fight Stats

	Eric McConico	Rodolfo Vieira
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	54/102	40/70
Total strikes landed	73	58
Knockdowns	0	0
Takedowns (landed/att)	2/2	4/15
Submission attempts	0	0
Control time	0:51	6:24

Sedriques Dumas

10-5-0

Winner

Jackson McVey

SUB · R1

Jackson McVey

7-2-0

▼

Model Prediction

no prediction data for this bout

Actual Result

Jackson McVey

Submission·R1

Actual Fight Stats

	Sedriques Dumas	Jackson McVey
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	3/4	21/29
Total strikes landed	9	38
Knockdowns	0	0
Takedowns (landed/att)	0/0	0/0
Submission attempts	0	0
Control time	0:02	2:03

Mayra Bueno Silva

10-7-1

Winner

Michelle Montague

Decision (U) · R3

Michelle Montague

8-0-0

▼

Model Prediction

no prediction data for this bout

Actual Result

Michelle Montague

Decision·R3

Actual Fight Stats

	Mayra Bueno Silva	Michelle Montague
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	26/45	42/83
Total strikes landed	34	108
Knockdowns	0	0
Takedowns (landed/att)	0/0	2/6
Submission attempts	0	0
Control time	1:39	10:14

Jafel Filho

17-5-0

Winner

Cody Durden

Decision (U) · R3

Cody Durden

18-10-1

▼

Model Prediction

no prediction data for this bout

Actual Result

Cody Durden

Decision·R3

Actual Fight Stats

	Jafel Filho	Cody Durden
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	23/63	34/72
Total strikes landed	50	91
Knockdowns	0	0
Takedowns (landed/att)	2/3	5/5
Submission attempts	0	0
Control time	3:08	5:14

Lucas Brennan

11-3-0

Winner

Francis Marshall

Decision (U) · R3

Francis Marshall

10-3-0

▼

Model Prediction

no prediction data for this bout

Actual Result

Francis Marshall

Decision·R3

Actual Fight Stats

	Lucas Brennan	Francis Marshall
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	9/36	33/69
Total strikes landed	20	60
Knockdowns	0	0
Takedowns (landed/att)	0/6	2/3
Submission attempts	0	0
Control time	0:47	6:36

Max Griffin

20-13-0

Winner

Victor Valenzuela

Decision (U) · R3

Victor Valenzuela

0-0-0

▼

Model Prediction

no prediction data for this bout

Actual Result

Victor Valenzuela

Decision·R3

Actual Fight Stats

	Max Griffin	Victor Valenzuela
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	40/89	53/117
Total strikes landed	43	53
Knockdowns	0	0
Takedowns (landed/att)	4/9	1/2
Submission attempts	0	0
Control time	1:03	0:36

Julia Polastri

14-6-0

Winner

Talita Alencar

Decision (U) · R3

Talita Alencar

8-1-1

▼

Model Prediction

no prediction data for this bout

Actual Result

Talita Alencar

Decision·R3

Actual Fight Stats

	Julia Polastri	Talita Alencar
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	78/111	60/195
Total strikes landed	87	80
Knockdowns	0	0
Takedowns (landed/att)	0/0	3/5
Submission attempts	0	0
Control time	0:04	2:27