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⟁ Past Events — Predictions vs. Actual Results
68 of 94
confident picks landed — when the model gives a fighter 70%+ it has been right 72% of the time
14–26
betting record with the same amount on every recommended bet (-14.9 units — early days, small sample)
Bankroll curve
−$859
2026-06-15
peak $160 · trough $-946
2026-09-19
UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song 10/13 · 77%
2026-08-29
Model Prediction
Song Yadong
✓ won
20%
KO 10%·
Sub 2%·
Dec 8%
Umar Nurmagomedov
80%
KO 8%·
Sub 19%·
Dec 53%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Umar Nurmagomedov wins | 80% | 1.14 | missed |
| Method Umar Nurmagomedov wins by Decision | 53% | 1.69 | missed |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 61% | 1.53 | missed |
Model Prediction
Yan Xiaonan
31%
KO 6%·
Sub 3%·
Dec 22%
Denise Gomes
✓ won
69%
KO 29%·
Sub 3%·
Dec 37%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Denise Gomes wins value | 69% | 2.25 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Denise Gomes wins by Decision value | 37% | 3.90 | missed |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 59% | 2.95 | missed |
Model Prediction
Kai Asakura
✓ won
69%
KO 28%·
Sub 3%·
Dec 38%
Aoriqileng
31%
KO 14%·
Sub 2%·
Dec 15%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Kai Asakura wins | 69% | 1.21 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Kai Asakura wins by Decision value | 38% | 5.50 | missed |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 53% | 3.32 | missed |
Model Prediction
Alex Perez
36%
KO 9%·
Sub 11%·
Dec 16%
Sumudaerji
✓ won
64%
KO 16%·
Sub 2%·
Dec 45%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Sumudaerji wins | 64% | 1.45 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Sumudaerji wins by Decision value | 45% | 3.05 | ✓ predicted |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 61% | 2.23 | ✓ predicted |
Model Prediction
Liu Ce
✓ won
70%
KO 42%·
Sub 7%·
Dec 20%
Levi Rodrigues Jr.
30%
KO 19%·
Sub 2%·
Dec 9%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Liu Ce wins value | 70% | 1.57 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Liu Ce wins by KO/TKO | 42% | 1.86 | ✓ predicted |
| Finish round Finish in Round 1 | 45% | — | ✓ predicted |
Model Prediction
Bilal Hasan
✓ won
57%
KO 12%·
Sub 7%·
Dec 38%
Nilson Rojas
43%
KO 9%·
Sub 6%·
Dec 27%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Bilal Hasan wins | 57% | 1.85 | ✓ predicted |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 65% | — | missed |
Model Prediction
Namsrai Batbayar
21%
KO 0%·
Sub 3%·
Dec 17%
Andre Lima
✓ won
79%
KO 18%·
Sub 18%·
Dec 43%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Andre Lima wins | 79% | 1.08 | ✓ predicted |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 60% | — | missed |
Model Prediction
Rei Tsuruya
✓ won
81%
KO 19%·
Sub 24%·
Dec 39%
Kevin Borjas
19%
KO 6%·
Sub 2%·
Dec 11%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Rei Tsuruya wins | 81% | 1.12 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Rei Tsuruya wins by Decision value | 39% | 3.50 | missed |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 50% | 2.74 | missed |
Model Prediction
Sean Woodson
✓ won
70%
KO 21%·
Sub 6%·
Dec 43%
Jack Jenkins
30%
KO 6%·
Sub 2%·
Dec 22%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Sean Woodson wins | 70% | 1.23 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Sean Woodson wins by Decision | 43% | 1.75 | ✓ predicted |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 66% | 1.42 | ✓ predicted |
Model Prediction
Xiao Long
59%
KO 26%·
Sub 9%·
Dec 24%
Francesco Nuzzi
✓ won
41%
KO 19%·
Sub 4%·
Dec 18%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Xiao Long wins | 59% | 1.51 | missed |
| Method Xiao Long wins by KO/TKO value | 26% | 6.00 | missed |
| Finish round Finish in Round 3 | 23% | 7.25 | missed |
Model Prediction
Lawrence Lui
77%
KO 16%·
Sub 9%·
Dec 52%
Hector Santiago
✓ won
23%
KO 9%·
Sub 2%·
Dec 11%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Lawrence Lui wins | 77% | 1.25 | missed |
| Method Lawrence Lui wins by Decision value | 52% | 2.90 | missed |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 64% | 2.20 | missed |
Model Prediction
Jingnan Xiong
1%
KO 0%·
Sub 0%·
Dec 0%
Julia Polastri
✓ won
99%
KO 30%·
Sub 6%·
Dec 63%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Julia Polastri wins value | 99% | 1.43 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Julia Polastri wins by Decision | 63% | 1.78 | missed |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 63% | 3.45 | missed |
Model Prediction
Ding Meng
40%
KO 25%·
Sub 3%·
Dec 13%
Cam Nelson
✓ won
60%
KO 11%·
Sub 7%·
Dec 42%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Cam Nelson wins value | 60% | 2.23 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Cam Nelson wins by Decision value | 42% | 4.90 | ✓ predicted |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 55% | 2.56 | ✓ predicted |