Updated 2026-07-09 20:17 AEST
5
Bouts
0
Events
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Win probability
Our model's estimate that a fighter wins — e.g. 72% means we'd expect them to win roughly 7 of 10 times.
Confidence interval (CI)
The range the true probability likely falls in. Wider = less certain. A pick'em fight has a wide band; a clear favourite a narrow one.
Edge
How much higher our probability is than the bookmaker's implied odds. Positive edge = we think it's underpriced.
EV (expected value)
Average return if you placed the bet many times. +15% EV means about 15c profit per $1 staked, on average.
Risk tiers
Conservative leans to safe favourites, Balanced blends, Aggressive chases bigger-odds longshots. Pick what suits you.
Edge badges
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Song Yadong
Yadong
Main Event
87%
Model Leans Nurmagomedov
2026-08-29
Umar Nurmagomedov
Nurmagomedov
UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song
2026
29
AUG
⚡ Next Event

UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song

Shanghai Oriental Sports Center, Shanghai, China
5
Bouts
Song Yadong
Song Yadong
China 22-9-1 Boxer Orthodox 1 loss
13% | 87%
Bantamweight 5 rds
⏱ Sat 29 Aug · 8:00 PM AEST
Umar Nurmagomedov
Umar Nurmagomedov
Russia 20-1-0 MMA Orthodox 2-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Umar Nurmagomedov
87.2 %
050100
90% CI · 57 – 98 · σ 0.057 · High
Why this pick
  • Umar Nurmagomedov eats 2.1 fewer strikes per minute
  • Umar Nurmagomedov rides a 2-fight longer win streak
  • Umar Nurmagomedov hits 0.22 more takedowns per minute
  • the case against Song Yadong lands 0.6 more sig strikes per minute
  • Umar Nurmagomedov has never been finished in 9 fights
Method Breakdown
Yadong Nurmagomedov
KO/TKO 4.5
11.8
Submission 1.9
12.7
Decision 6.5
62.7
Finish Distribution · By Round
12
R1
9
R2
5
R3
3
R4
1
R5
69
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Yadong Nurmagomedov
Str/min 4.4
3.9
Sig Acc 44%
56%
Str Def 55%
61%
TD/min 0.05
0.27
Finish 44%
33%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
45
60
YadongNurmagomedov
Combined 110 22–168
Takedowns
0.0
2.0
YadongNurmagomedov
Combined 2.1 0.0–5.3
Fight length
Expected 4.0 of 5 rounds 69% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Nurmagomedov

    Umar Nurmagomedov eats 2.1 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Nurmagomedov

    Umar Nurmagomedov rides a 2-fight longer win streak

  • 03 Takedown volume favours Nurmagomedov

    Umar Nurmagomedov hits 0.22 more takedowns per minute

  • 04 Striking volume favours Yadong

    Song Yadong lands 0.6 more sig strikes per minute

  • 05 KO rate favours Yadong

    Song Yadong finishes by KO 26% more often

  • 06 Striking accuracy favours Nurmagomedov

    Umar Nurmagomedov is 13% more accurate on the feet

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Yan Xiaonan
Yan Xiaonan
China 19-5-0 Striker Orthodox 1 loss
32% | 68%
Women's Strawweight 3 rds
⏱ Sat 29 Aug · 8:00 PM AEST
Denise Gomes
Denise Gomes
Brazil 12-3-0 MMA Orthodox 4-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Denise Gomes
68.4 %
050100
90% CI · 38 – 98 · σ 0.055 · High
Why this pick
  • Denise Gomes rides a 4-fight longer win streak
  • Denise Gomes finishes 22% more of their wins
  • Denise Gomes finishes by KO 22% more often
  • the case against Yan Xiaonan lands 0.7 more sig strikes per minute
  • Denise Gomes rides a 4-fight win streak (Yan Xiaonan: 0)
Method Breakdown
Xiaonan Gomes
KO/TKO 4.3
32.6
Submission 6.0
3.0
Decision 21.4
32.8
Finish Distribution · By Round
21
R1
16
R2
9
R3
54
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Xiaonan Gomes
Str/min 4.7
4.0
Sig Acc 45%
51%
Str Def 60%
46%
TD/min 0.06
0.11
Finish 15%
38%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
50
59
XiaonanGomes
Combined 116 22–157
Takedowns
0.0
0.6
XiaonanGomes
Combined 1.3 0.0–4.3
Fight length
Expected 2.2 of 3 rounds 54% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Gomes

    Denise Gomes rides a 4-fight longer win streak

  • 02 Striking volume favours Xiaonan

    Yan Xiaonan lands 0.7 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Finish rate favours Gomes

    Denise Gomes finishes 22% more of their wins

  • 04 KO rate favours Gomes

    Denise Gomes finishes by KO 22% more often

  • 05 Strikes absorbed favours Gomes

    Denise Gomes eats 0.2 fewer strikes per minute

  • 06 Striking defence favours Xiaonan

    Yan Xiaonan avoids 15% more incoming strikes

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Alex Perez
Alex Perez
United States 26-10-0 Freestyle Orthodox 1 win
42% | 58%
Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sat 29 Aug · 8:00 PM AEST
SU
Sumudaerji
China 19-7-0 Striker Southpaw 3-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Sumudaerji
57.6 %
050100
90% CI · 28 – 88 · σ 0.071 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Sumudaerji eats 0.8 fewer strikes per minute
  • Sumudaerji rides a 2-fight longer win streak
  • the case against Alex Perez finishes 39% more of their wins
  • Sumudaerji rides a 3-fight win streak (Alex Perez: 1)
Method Breakdown
Perez Sumudaerji
KO/TKO 10.8
22.9
Submission 10.3
0.1
Decision 21.2
34.6
Finish Distribution · By Round
18
R1
19
R2
7
R3
56
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Perez Sumudaerji
Str/min 4.4
4.4
Sig Acc 47%
51%
Str Def 60%
62%
TD/min 0.15
0.04
Finish 79%
40%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
30
34
PerezSumudaerji
Combined 64 19–131
Takedowns
1.1
0.0
PerezSumudaerji
Combined 1.7 0.0–4.8
Fight length
Expected 2.2 of 3 rounds 56% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Sumudaerji

    Sumudaerji eats 0.8 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Sumudaerji

    Sumudaerji rides a 2-fight longer win streak

  • 03 Finish rate favours Perez

    Alex Perez finishes 39% more of their wins

  • 04 KO rate favours Perez

    Alex Perez finishes by KO 33% more often

  • 05 Takedown volume favours Perez

    Alex Perez hits 0.11 more takedowns per minute

  • 06 Submission rate favours Perez

    Alex Perez taps opponents 14% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Rei Tsuruya
Rei Tsuruya
Japan 10-1-0 MMA Orthodox 1 loss
80% | 20%
Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sat 29 Aug · 8:00 PM AEST
Kevin Borjas
Kevin Borjas
Peru 10-5-0 Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Rei Tsuruya
79.5 %
050100
90% CI · 50 – 98 · σ 0.061 · High
Why this pick
  • Rei Tsuruya eats 3.8 fewer strikes per minute
  • Rei Tsuruya hits 0.23 more takedowns per minute
  • the case against Kevin Borjas lands 1.9 more sig strikes per minute
  • Rei Tsuruya has never been finished in 2 fights
Method Breakdown
Tsuruya Borjas
KO/TKO 20.0
5.6
Submission 15.7
2.1
Decision 43.8
12.8
Finish Distribution · By Round
22
R1
14
R2
7
R3
57
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Tsuruya Borjas
Str/min 1.6
3.5
Sig Acc 42%
44%
Str Def 42%
49%
TD/min 0.23
0.00
Finish 0%
40%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
35
33
TsuruyaBorjas
Combined 68 18–128
Takedowns
1.9
0.0
TsuruyaBorjas
Combined 2.5 0.0–5.2
Fight length
Expected 2.2 of 3 rounds 57% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Tsuruya

    Rei Tsuruya eats 3.8 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Borjas

    Kevin Borjas lands 1.9 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Finish rate favours Borjas

    Kevin Borjas finishes 40% more of their wins

  • 04 KO rate favours Borjas

    Kevin Borjas finishes by KO 40% more often

  • 05 Takedown volume favours Tsuruya

    Rei Tsuruya hits 0.23 more takedowns per minute

  • 06 Takedown defence favours Borjas

    Kevin Borjas stuffs 29% more incoming takedowns

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Junior Tafa
Junior Tafa
Australia 7-5-0 Kickboxer Orthodox 1 win
59% | 41%
Light Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sat 29 Aug · 6:00 PM AEST
CL
Ce Liu
China 0-0-0
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Junior Tafa
59.2 %
050100
90% CI · 29 – 89 · σ 0.083 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Junior Tafa rides a 1-fight longer win streak
  • Junior Tafa has a 8-fight UFC experience edge (8 vs 0)
Method Breakdown
Tafa Liu
KO/TKO 42.6
12.4
Submission 6.5
28.0
Decision 10.1
0.3
Finish Distribution · By Round
55
R1
22
R2
13
R3
10
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Tafa Liu
Str/min 3.6
0.0
Sig Acc 53%
0%
Str Def 51%
0%
TD/min 0.00
0.00
Finish 88%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
29
18
TafaLiu
Combined 47 15–107
Takedowns
0.0
0.0
TafaLiu
Combined 0.8 0.0–4.4
Fight length
Expected 1.2 of 3 rounds 10% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Tafa

    Junior Tafa rides a 1-fight longer win streak

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.