Updated 2026-08-23 22:04 AEST
13
Bouts
0
Events
5
Value Bets
New here? How to read these predictions
Win probability
Our model's estimate that a fighter wins — e.g. 72% means we'd expect them to win roughly 7 of 10 times.
Confidence interval (CI)
The range the true probability likely falls in. Wider = less certain. A pick'em fight has a wide band; a clear favourite a narrow one.
Edge
How much higher our probability is than the bookmaker's implied odds. Positive edge = we think it's underpriced.
EV (expected value)
Average return if you placed the bet many times. +15% EV means about 15c profit per $1 staked, on average.
Risk tiers
Conservative leans to safe favourites, Balanced blends, Aggressive chases bigger-odds longshots. Pick what suits you.
Edge badges
Strong / Solid / Slight edge rank how much value the model sees — and how big a stake it suggests. They're not a promise the bet wins.

Tap any fight row to open the full model breakdown. New to the model itself? How it works · FAQ.

Song Yadong
Yadong
Main Event
79%
Model Leans Nurmagomedov
2026-08-29
Umar Nurmagomedov
Nurmagomedov
UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song
2026
29
AUG
⚡ Next Event

UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song

Shanghai Oriental Sports Center, Shanghai, China
13
Bouts
3
Value Bouts
Song Yadong
Song Yadong
China 22-9-1 Boxer Orthodox 1 win
SB 4.75
21% | 79%
Bantamweight 5 rds
⏱ Sat 10:45 PM AEST
Umar Nurmagomedov
Umar Nurmagomedov
Russia 20-1-0 MMA Orthodox 2-fight win streak
SB 1.19
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Umar Nurmagomedov
78.8 %
050100
CI · 49 – 98 · σ 0.047 · High
Why this pick
  • Umar Nurmagomedov eats 1.9 fewer strikes per minute
  • Umar Nurmagomedov rides a 1-fight longer win streak
  • Umar Nurmagomedov hits 0.21 more takedowns per minute
  • the case against Song Yadong lands 0.5 more sig strikes per minute
  • Umar Nurmagomedov has never been finished in 9 fights
Method Breakdown
Yadong Nurmagomedov
KO/TKO 11.7
10.6
Submission 1.1
11.0
Decision 8.4
57.2
Finish Distribution · By Round
6
R1
11
R2
9
R3
6
R4
3
R5
66
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Yadong Nurmagomedov
Str/min 4.3
3.9
Sig Acc 44%
56%
Str Def 55%
61%
TD/min 0.05
0.27
Finish 47%
33%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
52
53
YadongNurmagomedov
Combined 105 23–181
Takedowns
0.0
2.3
YadongNurmagomedov
Combined 2.3 0.0–5.7
Fight length
Expected 4.0 of 5 rounds 65% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Nurmagomedov

    Umar Nurmagomedov eats 1.9 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Nurmagomedov

    Umar Nurmagomedov rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 03 Striking volume favours Yadong

    Song Yadong lands 0.5 more sig strikes per minute

  • 04 KO rate favours Yadong

    Song Yadong finishes by KO 24% more often

  • 05 Takedown volume favours Nurmagomedov

    Umar Nurmagomedov hits 0.21 more takedowns per minute

  • 06 Finish rate favours Yadong

    Song Yadong finishes 14% more of their wins

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed
No markets passed the value gate. 2 markets analysed.
Yan Xiaonan
Yan Xiaonan
China 19-5-0 Striker Orthodox 1 loss
SB 1.62
45% | 55%
Women's Strawweight 3 rds
⏱ Sat 10:00 PM AEST
Denise Gomes
Denise Gomes
Brazil 12-3-0 MMA Orthodox 4-fight win streak
SB 2.31
Breakdown ▼
1 value bet on SportsBet
Model Favourite
Denise Gomes
54.6 %
050100
CI · 25 – 85 · σ 0.073 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Denise Gomes rides a 4-fight longer win streak
  • Denise Gomes finishes 22% more of their wins
  • Denise Gomes finishes by KO 22% more often
  • the case against Yan Xiaonan lands 0.7 more sig strikes per minute
  • Denise Gomes rides a 4-fight win streak (Yan Xiaonan: 0)
Method Breakdown
Xiaonan Gomes
KO/TKO 8.1
31.1
Submission 2.7
1.8
Decision 34.7
21.7
Finish Distribution · By Round
23
R1
18
R2
7
R3
56
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Xiaonan Gomes
Str/min 4.7
4.0
Sig Acc 45%
51%
Str Def 60%
46%
TD/min 0.06
0.11
Finish 15%
38%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
49
53
XiaonanGomes
Combined 115 22–159
Takedowns
0.1
0.8
XiaonanGomes
Combined 1.4 0.0–4.5
Fight length
Expected 2.1 of 3 rounds 52% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Gomes

    Denise Gomes rides a 4-fight longer win streak

  • 02 Striking volume favours Xiaonan

    Yan Xiaonan lands 0.7 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Finish rate favours Gomes

    Denise Gomes finishes 22% more of their wins

  • 04 KO rate favours Gomes

    Denise Gomes finishes by KO 22% more often

  • 05 Strikes absorbed favours Gomes

    Denise Gomes eats 0.2 fewer strikes per minute

  • 06 Striking defence favours Xiaonan

    Yan Xiaonan avoids 15% more incoming strikes

Value Bets · SportsBet 1 flagged · 2 markets analysed
  • Denise Gomes wins
    Strong edge
    Model 55%
    Bookies 43%
    EV / $100 +$26
    Stake 5.0%
    2.31
    $50 returns $116
    +$66 profit
Kai Asakura
Kai Asakura
Japan 21-6-0 Orthodox 1 win
SB 1.24
72% | 28%
Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Sat 9:30 PM AEST
AO
Aoriqileng
China 26-11-0 Orthodox 1 loss
SB 4.10
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Kai Asakura
72.0 %
050100
CI · 42 – 98 · σ 0.057 · High
Why this pick
  • Kai Asakura eats 2.3 fewer strikes per minute
  • Kai Asakura finishes 60% more of their wins
  • Kai Asakura rides a 1-fight longer win streak
  • the case against Aoriqileng lands 1.9 more sig strikes per minute
  • Aoriqileng out-volumes opponents at 4.4 sig/min vs Kai Asakura's 2.5
Method Breakdown
Asakura Aoriqileng
KO/TKO 23.5
15.7
Submission 6.4
2.5
Decision 42.0
9.9
Finish Distribution · By Round
26
R1
16
R2
7
R3
52
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Asakura Aoriqileng
Str/min 2.5
4.4
Sig Acc 34%
50%
Str Def 52%
47%
TD/min 0.00
0.07
Finish 100%
40%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
38
37
AsakuraAoriqileng
Combined 88 18–151
Takedowns
0.2
0.2
AsakuraAoriqileng
Combined 1.1 0.0–4.3
Fight length
Expected 2.1 of 3 rounds 51% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Asakura

    Kai Asakura eats 2.3 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Aoriqileng

    Aoriqileng lands 1.9 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Finish rate favours Asakura

    Kai Asakura finishes 60% more of their wins

  • 04 Win streak favours Asakura

    Kai Asakura rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 05 Sub defence favours Aoriqileng

    Aoriqileng has been submitted 67% less often

  • 06 Striking accuracy favours Aoriqileng

    Aoriqileng is 16% more accurate on the feet

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed
No markets passed the value gate. 2 markets analysed.
Alex Perez
Alex Perez
United States 26-10-0 Freestyle Orthodox 1 loss
SB 2.81
34% | 66%
Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sat 9:00 PM AEST
SU
Sumudaerji
China 19-7-0 Striker Southpaw 1 loss
SB 1.44
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Sumudaerji
66.3 %
050100
CI · 36 – 96 · σ 0.081 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Sumudaerji eats 0.9 fewer strikes per minute
  • Sumudaerji lands 0.2 more sig strikes per minute
  • the case against Alex Perez finishes 37% more of their wins
  • Alex Perez has never been finished in 15 fights
Method Breakdown
Perez Sumudaerji
KO/TKO 8.6
19.9
Submission 9.1
2.0
Decision 16.0
44.4
Finish Distribution · By Round
21
R1
13
R2
6
R3
60
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Perez Sumudaerji
Str/min 4.2
4.4
Sig Acc 46%
50%
Str Def 59%
63%
TD/min 0.14
0.05
Finish 73%
36%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
34
41
PerezSumudaerji
Combined 80 20–134
Takedowns
1.5
0.0
PerezSumudaerji
Combined 1.7 0.0–4.5
Fight length
Expected 2.3 of 3 rounds 61% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Sumudaerji

    Sumudaerji eats 0.9 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Finish rate favours Perez

    Alex Perez finishes 37% more of their wins

  • 03 KO rate favours Perez

    Alex Perez finishes by KO 31% more often

  • 04 Submission rate favours Perez

    Alex Perez taps opponents 13% more often

  • 05 Striking volume favours Sumudaerji

    Sumudaerji lands 0.2 more sig strikes per minute

  • 06 Takedown volume favours Perez

    Alex Perez hits 0.09 more takedowns per minute

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed
No markets passed the value gate. 2 markets analysed.
Junior Tafa
Junior Tafa
Australia 7-5-0 Kickboxer Orthodox 1 loss
47% | 53%
Light Heavyweight 3 rds
LC
Liu Ce
China 0-0-0 nan
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Liu Ce
52.5 %
050100
CI · 23 – 83 · σ 0.089 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Liu Ce comes in on a 1-fight cleaner skid
  • Junior Tafa has a 9-fight UFC experience edge (9 vs 0)
Method Breakdown
Tafa Ce
KO/TKO 35.6
26.3
Submission 2.9
11.7
Decision 9.0
14.5
Finish Distribution · By Round
54
R1
13
R2
9
R3
24
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Tafa Ce
Str/min 3.5
0.0
Sig Acc 52%
0%
Str Def 52%
0%
TD/min 0.00
0.00
Finish 89%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
31
21
TafaCe
Combined 53 14–110
Takedowns
0.0
0.0
TafaCe
Combined 0.8 0.0–4.4
Fight length
Expected 1.4 of 3 rounds 24% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Loss streak favours Ce

    Liu Ce comes in on a 1-fight cleaner skid

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
BH
Bilal Hasan
United States 1-0-0 nan
SB 1.19
69% | 31%
Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sat 8:00 PM AEST
NR
Nilson Rojas
Peru 9-0-0 Freestyle nan
SB 4.75
Breakdown ▼
1 value bet on SportsBet
Model Favourite
Bilal Hasan
68.8 %
050100
CI · 39 – 98 · σ 0.062 · High
Why this pick
  • Bilal Hasan is favoured at 55% — fight-history features sparse
  • Model uncertainty: ±6pp on the win probability
Method Breakdown
Hasan Rojas
KO/TKO 16.3
5.6
Submission 14.6
8.3
Decision 37.9
17.3
Finish Distribution · By Round
24
R1
14
R2
7
R3
55
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Hasan Rojas
Str/min 0.0
0.0
Sig Acc 0%
0%
Str Def 0%
0%
TD/min 0.00
0.00
Finish 0%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
24
24
HasanRojas
Combined 47 15–126
Takedowns
0.1
0.1
HasanRojas
Combined 2.1 0.0–5.1
Fight length
Expected 2.2 of 3 rounds 55% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Model lean favours Hasan

    Bilal Hasan is favoured at 55% — fight-history features sparse

Value Bets · SportsBet 1 flagged · 2 markets analysed
  • Nilson Rojas wins
    Strong edge
    Model 31%
    Bookies 21%
    EV / $100 +$48
    Stake 3.2%
    4.75
    $32 returns $152
    +$120 profit
Namsrai Batbayar
Namsrai Batbayar
10-1-0 Striker Orthodox
SB 3.02
30% | 70%
Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sat 7:40 PM AEST
Andre Lima
Andre Lima
Brazil 11-0-0 Kickboxer Orthodox 1 loss
SB 1.39
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Andre Lima
70.5 %
050100
CI · 40 – 98 · σ 0.030 · High
Why this pick
  • the case against Namsrai Batbayar comes in on a 1-fight cleaner skid
  • Andre Lima has never been finished in 4 fights
Method Breakdown
Batbayar Lima
KO/TKO 0.2
18.0
Submission 9.3
12.4
Decision 20.1
40.2
Finish Distribution · By Round
21
R1
13
R2
6
R3
60
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Batbayar Lima
Str/min 0.0
3.9
Sig Acc 0%
56%
Str Def 0%
58%
TD/min 0.00
0.07
Finish 0%
25%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
26
40
BatbayarLima
Combined 64 20–125
Takedowns
0.0
0.4
BatbayarLima
Combined 2.1 0.0–4.7
Fight length
Expected 2.2 of 3 rounds 60% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Loss streak favours Batbayar

    Namsrai Batbayar comes in on a 1-fight cleaner skid

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed
No markets passed the value gate. 2 markets analysed.
Rei Tsuruya
Rei Tsuruya
Japan 10-1-0 MMA Orthodox 1 win
SB 1.15
78% | 22%
Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sat 7:10 PM AEST
Kevin Borjas
Kevin Borjas
Peru 10-5-0 Orthodox 1 win
SB 5.50
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Rei Tsuruya
77.9 %
050100
CI · 48 – 98 · σ 0.031 · High
Why this pick
  • Rei Tsuruya eats 3.5 fewer strikes per minute
  • Rei Tsuruya taps opponents 33% more often
  • Rei Tsuruya hits 0.24 more takedowns per minute
  • the case against Kevin Borjas lands 1.5 more sig strikes per minute
  • Rei Tsuruya has never been finished in 3 fights
Method Breakdown
Tsuruya Borjas
KO/TKO 14.9
8.0
Submission 21.5
1.9
Decision 41.5
12.2
Finish Distribution · By Round
24
R1
15
R2
7
R3
54
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Tsuruya Borjas
Str/min 2.0
3.5
Sig Acc 46%
42%
Str Def 42%
50%
TD/min 0.24
0.00
Finish 33%
33%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
39
31
TsuruyaBorjas
Combined 68 19–123
Takedowns
1.5
0.0
TsuruyaBorjas
Combined 2.4 0.0–5.4
Fight length
Expected 2.1 of 3 rounds 54% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Tsuruya

    Rei Tsuruya eats 3.5 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Borjas

    Kevin Borjas lands 1.5 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 KO rate favours Borjas

    Kevin Borjas finishes by KO 33% more often

  • 04 Submission rate favours Tsuruya

    Rei Tsuruya taps opponents 33% more often

  • 05 Takedown volume favours Tsuruya

    Rei Tsuruya hits 0.24 more takedowns per minute

  • 06 Takedown defence favours Borjas

    Kevin Borjas stuffs 31% more incoming takedowns

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed
No markets passed the value gate. 2 markets analysed.
Sean Woodson
Sean Woodson
United States 13-2-1 Freestyle Orthodox 1 loss
SB 1.63
64% | 36%
Featherweight 3 rds
⏱ Sat 6:50 PM AEST
Jack Jenkins
Jack Jenkins
Australia 14-4-0 Freestyle Switch Stance 1 win
SB 2.29
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Sean Woodson
63.8 %
050100
CI · 34 – 94 · σ 0.060 · High
Why this pick
  • Sean Woodson lands 1.2 more sig strikes per minute
  • Sean Woodson stuffs 17% more incoming takedowns
  • the case against Jack Jenkins eats 1.1 fewer strikes per minute
  • Sean Woodson out-volumes opponents at 5.8 sig/min vs Jack Jenkins's 4.6
Method Breakdown
Woodson Jenkins
KO/TKO 21.9
3.9
Submission 7.0
2.1
Decision 34.9
30.2
Finish Distribution · By Round
10
R1
15
R2
10
R3
65
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Woodson Jenkins
Str/min 5.8
4.6
Sig Acc 47%
60%
Str Def 59%
58%
TD/min 0.04
0.10
Finish 40%
50%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
52
53
WoodsonJenkins
Combined 108 23–162
Takedowns
0.0
0.3
WoodsonJenkins
Combined 1.0 0.0–4.0
Fight length
Expected 2.5 of 3 rounds 64% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Jenkins

    Jack Jenkins eats 1.1 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Woodson

    Sean Woodson lands 1.2 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Win streak favours Jenkins

    Jack Jenkins rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 04 Finish rate favours Jenkins

    Jack Jenkins finishes 10% more of their wins

  • 05 Striking accuracy favours Jenkins

    Jack Jenkins is 13% more accurate on the feet

  • 06 Takedown defence favours Woodson

    Sean Woodson stuffs 17% more incoming takedowns

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed
No markets passed the value gate. 2 markets analysed.
Xiao Long
Xiao Long
China 27-11-0 Striker Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
SB 1.52
59% | 41%
Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Sat 6:20 PM AEST
FN
Francesco Nuzzi
Italy 11-2-0 Striker nan
SB 2.53
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Xiao Long
59.3 %
050100
CI · 29 – 89 · σ 0.088 · Medium
Why this pick
  • the case against Francesco Nuzzi comes in on a 2-fight cleaner skid
  • Xiao Long out-volumes opponents at 4.7 sig/min vs Francesco Nuzzi's 0.0
Method Breakdown
Long Nuzzi
KO/TKO 21.7
9.3
Submission 10.5
8.7
Decision 27.2
22.7
Finish Distribution · By Round
25
R1
15
R2
10
R3
50
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Long Nuzzi
Str/min 4.7
0.0
Sig Acc 43%
0%
Str Def 47%
0%
TD/min 0.05
0.00
Finish 24%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
44
32
LongNuzzi
Combined 83 20–158
Takedowns
0.0
0.0
LongNuzzi
Combined 1.2 0.0–4.5
Fight length
Expected 2.1 of 3 rounds 50% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Loss streak favours Nuzzi

    Francesco Nuzzi comes in on a 2-fight cleaner skid

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed
No markets passed the value gate. 2 markets analysed.
LL
Lawrence Lui
8-1-0 MMA Orthodox 1 win
SB 1.31
69% | 31%
Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Sat 5:50 PM AEST
HS
Hector Santiago
nan
SB 3.46
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Lawrence Lui
69.2 %
050100
CI · 39 – 98 · σ 0.055 · High
Why this pick
  • Lawrence Lui rides a 1-fight longer win streak
  • Lawrence Lui has never been finished in 1 fights
Method Breakdown
Lui Santiago
KO/TKO 14.8
7.0
Submission 12.6
6.6
Decision 41.8
17.2
Finish Distribution · By Round
20
R1
12
R2
8
R3
59
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Lui Santiago
Str/min 2.6
0.0
Sig Acc 26%
0%
Str Def 55%
0%
TD/min 0.35
0.00
Finish 0%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
32
26
LuiSantiago
Combined 62 19–128
Takedowns
1.5
0.0
LuiSantiago
Combined 2.2 0.0–5.8
Fight length
Expected 2.3 of 3 rounds 59% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Lui

    Lawrence Lui rides a 1-fight longer win streak

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed
No markets passed the value gate. 2 markets analysed.
XJ
Xiong Jingnan
0-1-0 nan 1 loss
SB 2.78
15% | 85%
Women's Strawweight 3 rds
⏱ Sat 5:30 PM AEST
Julia Polastri
Julia Polastri
Brazil 14-6-0 Striker Orthodox 1 loss
SB 1.45
Breakdown ▼
1 value bet on SportsBet
Model Favourite
Julia Polastri
85.3 %
050100
CI · 55 – 98 · σ 0.051 · High
Why this pick
  • Julia Polastri eats 2.9 fewer strikes per minute
  • Julia Polastri lands 1.7 more sig strikes per minute
  • Julia Polastri finishes 20% more of their wins
  • Julia Polastri out-volumes opponents at 6.2 sig/min vs Xiong Jingnan's 4.5
Method Breakdown
Jingnan Polastri
KO/TKO 4.2
10.5
Submission 0.1
11.0
Decision 10.4
63.8
Finish Distribution · By Round
13
R1
7
R2
5
R3
74
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Jingnan Polastri
Str/min 4.5
6.2
Sig Acc 34%
58%
Str Def 38%
58%
TD/min 0.00
0.04
Finish 0%
20%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
53
69
JingnanPolastri
Combined 114 22–186
Takedowns
0.1
0.1
JingnanPolastri
Combined 0.9 0.0–4.2
Fight length
Expected 2.5 of 3 rounds 75% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Polastri

    Julia Polastri eats 2.9 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Polastri

    Julia Polastri lands 1.7 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Finish rate favours Polastri

    Julia Polastri finishes 20% more of their wins

  • 04 KO rate favours Polastri

    Julia Polastri finishes by KO 20% more often

  • 05 Striking accuracy favours Polastri

    Julia Polastri is 24% more accurate on the feet

  • 06 Striking defence favours Polastri

    Julia Polastri avoids 20% more incoming strikes

Value Bets · SportsBet 1 flagged · 2 markets analysed
  • Julia Polastri wins
    Strong edge
    Model 85%
    Bookies 69%
    EV / $100 +$24
    Stake 13.2%
    1.45
    $132 returns $191
    +$59 profit
Ding Meng
Ding Meng
China 0-1-0 Orthodox 1 loss
SB 1.89
52% | 48%
Welterweight 3 rds
⏱ Sat 5:10 PM AEST
CN
Cameron Nelson
Canada 7-1-0 MMA nan
SB 1.95
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Ding Meng
52.3 %
050100
CI · 22 – 82 · σ 0.055 · High
Why this pick
  • the case against Cameron Nelson comes in on a 1-fight cleaner skid
  • Ding Meng out-volumes opponents at 4.2 sig/min vs Cameron Nelson's 0.0
Method Breakdown
Meng Nelson
KO/TKO 27.0
12.1
Submission 5.1
9.1
Decision 20.1
26.5
Finish Distribution · By Round
35
R1
11
R2
8
R3
47
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Meng Nelson
Str/min 4.2
0.0
Sig Acc 43%
0%
Str Def 53%
0%
TD/min 0.00
0.00
Finish 0%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
43
31
MengNelson
Combined 75 18–166
Takedowns
0.0
0.1
MengNelson
Combined 1.4 0.0–4.6
Fight length
Expected 1.9 of 3 rounds 46% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Loss streak favours Nelson

    Cameron Nelson comes in on a 1-fight cleaner skid

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed
No markets passed the value gate. 2 markets analysed.