How It Works

In Greek myth the Moirai are the three Fates — the goddesses who spin, measure and cut the thread of every mortal life. This site points their job description at a fight card: read the thread of a bout before it's fought, and say where it leads. Free, no signup.

  1. 1
    Spin the matchupCLOTHO
    Every fighter's whole career — striking, grappling, skill ratings, age and reach, durability, style clashes — is pulled from decades of UFC history and woven into one matchup.
  2. 2
    Measure the win chanceLACHESIS
    An ensemble of gradient-boosted models turns the matchup into a win probability, then calibrates it — a stated 65% wins about 65 times in 100 — and stamps it with an honest uncertainty band sized to that specific fight.
  3. 3
    Call the finishATROPOS
    How the thread is cut: knockout, submission or decision — and the round it happens.
  4. 4
    Mark the value
    Wherever a sportsbook has posted a price, Moirai flags the bets where its own read beats the book, and lays out one disciplined, risk-capped slate per card instead of a pile of long shots.

Honest about the edge

Moirai does not beat the closing moneyline — the sharps are razor-sharp there, and those bets are deliberately flagged low value. The edge lives in the prop markets — method, round, totals — where lines are looser and a well-calibrated read can find daylight. The Past Events page tracks every graded pick and the running P&L, wins and losses alike.

What Moirai is not

Not an oracle, and not betting advice. It's free, takes no affiliate money from any sportsbook, and shows what each market actually returned in testing so you can judge it yourself. The Fates were never wrong; a model always can be. Gamble responsibly, only with money you can afford to lose — 21+ in most places, 18+ in some.

Find Moirai

moirai.gg — the live board, refreshed as the lines move · FAQ — the common questions, answered.

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