Updated 2026-06-18 01:38 AEST
9
Bouts
0
Events
New here? How to read these predictions
Win probability
Our model's estimate that a fighter wins — e.g. 72% means we'd expect them to win roughly 7 of 10 times.
Confidence interval (CI)
The range the true probability likely falls in. Wider = less certain. A pick'em fight has a wide band; a clear favourite a narrow one.
Edge
How much higher our probability is than the bookmaker's implied odds. Positive edge = we think it's underpriced.
EV (expected value)
Average return if you placed the bet many times. +15% EV means about 15c profit per $1 staked, on average.
Risk tiers
Conservative leans to safe favourites, Balanced blends, Aggressive chases bigger-odds longshots. Pick what suits you.
Edge badges
Strong / Solid / Slight edge rank how much value the model sees — and how big a stake it suggests. They're not a promise the bet wins.

Tap any fight row to open the full model breakdown. New to the model itself? How it works · FAQ.

Daniel Rodriguez
Rodriguez
Main Event
65%
model leans Medic
2026-08-01
Uros Medic
Medic
UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez
2026
01
AUG
⚡ Next Event

UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez

Belgrade Arena, Belgrade, Serbia
9
Bouts
Daniel Rodriguez
Daniel Rodriguez
United States 20-5-0 Freestyle Southpaw 3-fight win streak
35% | 65%
Welterweight 5 rds
⏱ Sun 2 Aug · 4:00 AM AEST
Uros Medic
Uros Medic
Serbia 13-3-0 MMA Southpaw 3-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Uros Medic
65.3 %
050100
90% CI · 35 – 95 · σ 0.077 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Uros Medic eats 1.8 fewer strikes per minute
  • Daniel Rodriguez lands 2.1 more sig strikes per minute
  • Uros Medic finishes 57% more of their wins
  • Daniel Rodriguez out-volumes opponents at 7.2 sig/min vs Uros Medic's 5.1
  • Daniel Rodriguez has never been finished in 14 fights
Method Breakdown
Rodriguez Medic
KO/TKO 15.4
28.9
Submission 5.1
5.2
Decision 14.1
31.1
Finish Distribution · By Round
22
R1
16
R2
8
R3
5
R4
3
R5
45
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Rodriguez Medic
Str/min 7.2
5.1
Sig Acc 49%
57%
Str Def 57%
56%
TD/min 0.01
0.02
Finish 43%
100%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
  • Sig strikes
    43
    46
    7–109 9–128
  • Sig strikes (combined) 80 19–265
  • Takedowns
    0.1
    0.0
    0.0–1.8 0.0–1.8
  • Takedowns (combined) 0.6 0.0–3.8
  • Knockdowns (combined) 0.0 0.0–0.0
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Medic

    Uros Medic eats 1.8 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Rodriguez

    Daniel Rodriguez lands 2.1 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Finish rate favours Medic

    Uros Medic finishes 57% more of their wins

  • 04 KO rate favours Medic

    Uros Medic finishes by KO 51% more often

  • 05 Striking accuracy favours Medic

    Uros Medic is 8% more accurate on the feet

  • 06 Submission rate favours Rodriguez

    Daniel Rodriguez taps opponents 7% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Ante Delija
Ante Delija
Croatia 26-8-0 MMA Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
33% | 67%
Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 2 Aug · 4:00 AM AEST
Johnny Walker
Johnny Walker
Brazil 22-10-0 MMA Orthodox 1 loss
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Johnny Walker
66.9 %
050100
90% CI · 37 – 97 · σ 0.050 · High
Why this pick
  • Johnny Walker eats 1.0 fewer strikes per minute
  • Ante Delija lands 0.6 more sig strikes per minute
  • Johnny Walker is 15% more accurate on the feet
  • Johnny Walker has a 13-fight UFC experience edge (16 vs 3)
  • Johnny Walker KOs 62% of opponents — Ante Delija has been KO'd in 33% of losses
Method Breakdown
Delija Walker
KO/TKO 17.3
38.1
Submission 2.6
4.5
Decision 13.2
24.3
Finish Distribution · By Round
32
R1
20
R2
10
R3
0
R4
0
R5
37
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Delija Walker
Str/min 4.3
3.7
Sig Acc 38%
53%
Str Def 53%
49%
TD/min 0.00
0.02
Finish 67%
69%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
  • Sig strikes
    30
    36
    7–67 8–63
  • Sig strikes (combined) 65 15–130
  • Takedowns
    0.2
    0.0
    0.0–1.7 0.0–1.6
  • Takedowns (combined) 0.2 0.0–3.7
  • Knockdowns (combined) 0.0 0.0–0.0
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Walker

    Johnny Walker eats 1.0 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Delija

    Ante Delija lands 0.6 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Striking accuracy favours Walker

    Johnny Walker is 15% more accurate on the feet

  • 04 Takedown defence favours Delija

    Ante Delija stuffs 25% more incoming takedowns

  • 05 Loss streak favours Walker

    Johnny Walker comes in on a 1-fight cleaner skid

  • 06 Submission rate favours Walker

    Johnny Walker taps opponents 6% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Marcin Tybura
Marcin Tybura
Poland 27-11-0 MMA Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
33% | 67%
Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 2 Aug · 4:00 AM AEST
Aleksandar Rakic
Aleksandar Rakic
6-5-0 Orthodox 4-fight loss streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Aleksandar Rakic
67.4 %
050100
90% CI · 37 – 97 · σ 0.052 · High
Why this pick
  • Aleksandar Rakic eats 0.4 fewer strikes per minute
  • Aleksandar Rakic lands 0.6 more sig strikes per minute
  • Marcin Tybura comes in on a 2-fight cleaner skid
  • Marcin Tybura has never been finished in 24 fights
  • Marcin Tybura KOs 42% of opponents — Aleksandar Rakic has been KO'd in 27% of losses
Method Breakdown
Tybura Rakic
KO/TKO 10.5
21.5
Submission 5.5
5.0
Decision 16.6
40.9
Finish Distribution · By Round
18
R1
17
R2
7
R3
0
R4
1
R5
58
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Tybura Rakic
Str/min 3.6
4.1
Sig Acc 48%
50%
Str Def 55%
51%
TD/min 0.09
0.04
Finish 50%
45%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
  • Sig strikes
    40
    52
    8–80 8–74
  • Sig strikes (combined) 98 21–150
  • Takedowns
    0.6
    0.1
    0.0–1.8 0.0–2.2
  • Takedowns (combined) 1.1 0.0–4.2
  • Knockdowns (combined) 0.0 0.0–0.0
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Rakic

    Aleksandar Rakic eats 0.4 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Rakic

    Aleksandar Rakic lands 0.6 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Loss streak favours Tybura

    Marcin Tybura comes in on a 2-fight cleaner skid

  • 04 Takedown defence favours Rakic

    Aleksandar Rakic stuffs 15% more incoming takedowns

  • 05 Takedown volume favours Tybura

    Marcin Tybura hits 0.04 more takedowns per minute

  • 06 Finish rate favours Tybura

    Marcin Tybura finishes 5% more of their wins

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Dusko Todorovic
Dusko Todorovic
13-6-0 MMA Orthodox 1 win
59% | 41%
Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 2 Aug · 4:00 AM AEST
RV
Robert Valentin
1-3-0 Orthodox 1 win
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Dusko Todorovic
59.0 %
050100
90% CI · 29 – 89 · σ 0.068 · High
Why this pick
  • Dusko Todorovic lands 3.1 more sig strikes per minute
  • Robert Valentin eats 1.1 fewer strikes per minute
  • Dusko Todorovic finishes by KO 23% more often
  • Dusko Todorovic out-volumes opponents at 4.3 sig/min vs Robert Valentin's 1.2
  • Dusko Todorovic KOs 70% of opponents — Robert Valentin has been KO'd in 50% of losses
Method Breakdown
Todorovic Valentin
KO/TKO 26.2
11.8
Submission 8.8
12.8
Decision 24.0
16.4
Finish Distribution · By Round
35
R1
18
R2
7
R3
0
R4
0
R5
40
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Todorovic Valentin
Str/min 4.3
1.2
Sig Acc 54%
53%
Str Def 51%
33%
TD/min 0.14
0.04
Finish 80%
70%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
  • Sig strikes
    20
    20
    4–62 4–52
  • Sig strikes (combined) 45 12–111
  • Takedowns
    1.1
    0.2
    0.0–3.0 0.0–1.8
  • Takedowns (combined) 1.6 0.0–4.7
  • Knockdowns (combined) 0.0 0.0–0.0
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Todorovic

    Dusko Todorovic lands 3.1 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Valentin

    Robert Valentin eats 1.1 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 KO rate favours Todorovic

    Dusko Todorovic finishes by KO 23% more often

  • 04 Takedown volume favours Todorovic

    Dusko Todorovic hits 0.11 more takedowns per minute

  • 05 Striking defence favours Todorovic

    Dusko Todorovic avoids 18% more incoming strikes

  • 06 Submission rate favours Valentin

    Robert Valentin taps opponents 14% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Gilbert Urbina
Gilbert Urbina
United States 7-5-0 MMA Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
50% | 50%
Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 2 Aug · 4:00 AM AEST
VC
Vlasto Cepo
Serbia 0-0-0 nan
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Vlasto Cepo
50.3 %
050100
90% CI · 20 – 80 · σ 0.080 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Vlasto Cepo comes in on a 2-fight cleaner skid
  • Gilbert Urbina out-volumes opponents at 5.2 sig/min vs Vlasto Cepo's 0.0
  • Model uncertainty: ±8pp on the win probability
Method Breakdown
Urbina Cepo
KO/TKO 14.4
19.8
Submission 13.6
16.5
Decision 21.6
14.0
Finish Distribution · By Round
40
R1
16
R2
9
R3
0
R4
0
R5
36
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Urbina Cepo
Str/min 5.2
0.0
Sig Acc 53%
0%
Str Def 45%
0%
TD/min 0.18
0.00
Finish 94%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
  • Sig strikes
    22
    21
    3–66 5–63
  • Sig strikes (combined) 52 12–123
  • Takedowns
    0.8
    0.1
    0.0–3.1 0.0–2.7
  • Takedowns (combined) 2.0 0.0–4.7
  • Knockdowns (combined) 0.0 0.0–0.0
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Loss streak favours Cepo

    Vlasto Cepo comes in on a 2-fight cleaner skid

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
JL
Jovan Leka
Serbia 1-0-0 nan
72% | 28%
Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 2 Aug · 4:00 AM AEST
Max Gimenis
Max Gimenis
Brazil 6-2-0 Jiu-Jitsu nan 1 loss
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Jovan Leka
71.8 %
050100
90% CI · 42 – 98 · σ 0.041 · High
Why this pick
  • Jovan Leka comes in on a 1-fight cleaner skid
  • Model uncertainty: ±4pp on the win probability
  • Model favours Jovan Leka at 72% / Max Gimenis at 28%
Method Breakdown
Leka Gimenis
KO/TKO 39.7
8.9
Submission 11.1
6.8
Decision 21.0
12.4
Finish Distribution · By Round
38
R1
19
R2
10
R3
0
R4
0
R5
33
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Leka Gimenis
Str/min 0.0
2.4
Sig Acc 0%
33%
Str Def 0%
47%
TD/min 0.00
0.00
Finish 0%
76%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
  • Sig strikes
    23
    19
    5–74 2–57
  • Sig strikes (combined) 46 13–128
  • Takedowns
    0.0
    0.0
    0.0–2.6 0.0–2.5
  • Takedowns (combined) 0.6 0.0–4.3
  • Knockdowns (combined) 0.0 0.0–0.0
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Loss streak favours Leka

    Jovan Leka comes in on a 1-fight cleaner skid

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Ludovit Klein
Ludovit Klein
Slovakia 24-5-1 Boxing Southpaw 1 win
65% | 35%
Lightweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 2 Aug · 1:00 AM AEST
Tofiq Musayev
Tofiq Musayev
Azerbaijan 23-6-0 Kickboxer Orthodox 1 win
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Ludovit Klein
64.9 %
050100
90% CI · 35 – 95 · σ 0.072 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Tofiq Musayev eats 1.7 fewer strikes per minute
  • Ludovit Klein lands 1.9 more sig strikes per minute
  • Tofiq Musayev finishes 25% more of their wins
  • Ludovit Klein has a 10-fight UFC experience edge (12 vs 2)
  • Ludovit Klein has never been finished in 12 fights
Method Breakdown
Klein Musayev
KO/TKO 16.7
8.6
Submission 13.8
3.6
Decision 34.5
22.9
Finish Distribution · By Round
15
R1
17
R2
10
R3
0
R4
0
R5
57
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Klein Musayev
Str/min 3.8
1.8
Sig Acc 54%
46%
Str Def 53%
51%
TD/min 0.09
0.15
Finish 25%
50%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
  • Sig strikes
    33
    24
    8–62 8–59
  • Sig strikes (combined) 64 19–118
  • Takedowns
    0.1
    0.9
    0.0–2.3 0.0–2.8
  • Takedowns (combined) 2.1 0.0–4.4
  • Knockdowns (combined) 0.0 0.0–0.0
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Musayev

    Tofiq Musayev eats 1.7 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Klein

    Ludovit Klein lands 1.9 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Finish rate favours Musayev

    Tofiq Musayev finishes 25% more of their wins

  • 04 KO rate favours Klein

    Ludovit Klein finishes by KO 17% more often

  • 05 Takedown defence favours Klein

    Ludovit Klein stuffs 26% more incoming takedowns

  • 06 Sub defence favours Klein

    Ludovit Klein has been submitted 42% less often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Josias Musasa
Josias Musasa
8-2-0 Kickboxer Southpaw 2-fight loss streak
41% | 59%
Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 2 Aug · 1:00 AM AEST
Mark Vologdin
Mark Vologdin
Russia 12-4-2 Karate Orthodox 1 loss
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Mark Vologdin
58.6 %
050100
90% CI · 29 – 89 · σ 0.065 · High
Why this pick
  • Josias Musasa eats 4.7 fewer strikes per minute
  • Mark Vologdin lands 2.1 more sig strikes per minute
  • Josias Musasa finishes 41% more of their wins
  • Mark Vologdin out-volumes opponents at 4.6 sig/min vs Josias Musasa's 2.5
  • Mark Vologdin has never been finished in 1 fights
Method Breakdown
Musasa Vologdin
KO/TKO 10.0
16.4
Submission 7.8
8.6
Decision 23.6
33.7
Finish Distribution · By Round
18
R1
12
R2
13
R3
0
R4
0
R5
57
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Musasa Vologdin
Str/min 2.5
4.6
Sig Acc 38%
32%
Str Def 42%
47%
TD/min 0.04
0.05
Finish 41%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
  • Sig strikes
    30
    43
    7–78 8–69
  • Sig strikes (combined) 77 19–142
  • Takedowns
    0.0
    0.1
    0.0–1.7 0.0–2.5
  • Takedowns (combined) 1.0 0.0–4.0
  • Knockdowns (combined) 0.0 0.0–0.0
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Musasa

    Josias Musasa eats 4.7 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Vologdin

    Mark Vologdin lands 2.1 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Finish rate favours Musasa

    Josias Musasa finishes 41% more of their wins

  • 04 Sub defence favours Vologdin

    Mark Vologdin has been submitted 50% less often

  • 05 Durability favours Vologdin

    Mark Vologdin has been finished 50% less often

  • 06 Striking accuracy favours Musasa

    Josias Musasa is 6% more accurate on the feet

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Dennis Buzukja
Dennis Buzukja
United States 12-6-0 MMA Switch Stance 2-fight loss streak
31% | 69%
Featherweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 2 Aug · 1:00 AM AEST
Bogdan Grad
Bogdan Grad
Romania 15-4-0 Karate Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Bogdan Grad
69.4 %
050100
90% CI · 39 – 98 · σ 0.045 · High
Why this pick
  • Bogdan Grad eats 2.6 fewer strikes per minute
  • Dennis Buzukja lands 2.2 more sig strikes per minute
  • Bogdan Grad hits 0.29 more takedowns per minute
  • Dennis Buzukja out-volumes opponents at 4.7 sig/min vs Bogdan Grad's 2.5
  • Bogdan Grad KOs 59% of opponents — Dennis Buzukja has been KO'd in 40% of losses
Method Breakdown
Buzukja Grad
KO/TKO 13.3
16.0
Submission 4.1
5.1
Decision 13.2
48.3
Finish Distribution · By Round
22
R1
11
R2
6
R3
0
R4
0
R5
61
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Buzukja Grad
Str/min 4.7
2.5
Sig Acc 41%
52%
Str Def 53%
49%
TD/min 0.00
0.29
Finish 60%
59%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
  • Sig strikes
    28
    29
    4–65 7–66
  • Sig strikes (combined) 73 17–125
  • Takedowns
    0.0
    1.5
    0.0–1.1 0.0–4.3
  • Takedowns (combined) 2.4 0.0–5.0
  • Knockdowns (combined) 0.0 0.0–0.0
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Grad

    Bogdan Grad eats 2.6 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Buzukja

    Dennis Buzukja lands 2.2 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Takedown volume favours Grad

    Bogdan Grad hits 0.29 more takedowns per minute

  • 04 Striking accuracy favours Grad

    Bogdan Grad is 10% more accurate on the feet

  • 05 Takedown defence favours Grad

    Bogdan Grad stuffs 18% more incoming takedowns

  • 06 Control time favours Grad

    Bogdan Grad controls 33% more cage time

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.