UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez — Results & Recap

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⟁ Past Events — Predictions vs. Actual Results

101 / 136

Correct Picks

74.3% accuracy · 12 events

−$260

Parlay P&L

$33 / parlay (2·3·4-leg) · 2-10 · 12 parlays

−$452

Running P&L · opening

$1000 / event · Conservative · Kelly-weighted · closing: +$369

46 of 53 confident picks landed — when the model gives a fighter 70%+ it has been right 87% of the time

10–16 betting record with the same amount on every recommended bet (-8.1 units — early days, small sample)

Bankroll curve $1000 per event · Conservative tier · opening odds −$452

2026-06-15 peak $126 · trough $-495 2026-08-01

UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez 2026-08-01 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · −$56

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Mateusz Rebecki wins	Kyle Prepolec vs Mateusz Rebecki	1.18	$80	✓ won +$14
Oban Elliott wins	Oban Elliott vs Michael Oliveira	3.57	$80	✗ lost −$80
Bogdan Grad wins	Dennis Buzukja vs Bogdan Grad	1.52	$62	✓ won +$32
Fight goes to Decision	Daniel Rodriguez vs Uros Medic	7.25	$22	✗ lost −$22

UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov 2026-07-25 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · −$102

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Nurullo Aliev wins	Mike Davis vs Nurullo Aliev	1.54	$80	✓ won +$43
Tyrell Fortune wins	Rizvan Kuniev vs Tyrell Fortune	3.34	$80	✗ lost −$80
Damian Rzepecki wins	Magomed Zaynukov vs Damian Rzepecki	3.73	$43	✗ lost −$43
Dustin Jacoby wins	Dustin Jacoby vs Muhammad Said	1.59	$23	✗ lost −$23

UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman 2026-07-18 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · +$38

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Chase Hooper wins	Chase Hooper vs Mitch Ramirez	1.27	$80	✓ won +$22
Christian Leroy Duncan wins	Jared Cannonier vs Christian Leroy Duncan	1.32	$80	✓ won +$26
Dricus Du Plessis wins by SUB	Kamaru Usman vs Dricus Du Plessis	9.25	$55	✗ lost −$55
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani wins	Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs Seokhyeon Ko	2.66	$28	✓ won +$46

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 2026-07-11 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly · −$200

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Elisha Ellison wins	Gable Steveson vs Elisha Ellison	10.00	$138	✗ lost −$138
Benoit Saint Denis wins	Paddy Pimblett vs Benoit Saint Denis	1.53	$62	✗ lost −$62

UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres 2026-06-27 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly · −$216

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Manuel Torres wins	Rafael Fiziev vs Manuel Torres	1.96	$115	✗ lost −$115
Eric Nolan wins by Sub or Decision	Eric Nolan vs Farman Hasanov	5.30	$70	✗ lost −$70
Matheus Camilo wins	Nazim Sadykhov vs Matheus Camilo	2.99	$48	✓ won +$95
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	Julius Walker vs Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev	3.92	$44	✗ lost −$44
Fight reaches Round 2	Julius Walker vs Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev	2.17	$44	✗ lost −$44
Michel Pereira wins	Michel Pereira vs Shara Magomedov	3.82	$37	✗ lost −$37

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi 2 2026-06-20 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly · +$109

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Luana Santos wins	Karol Rosa vs Luana Santos	1.97	$157	✓ won +$152
Kyoji Horiguchi wins by KO/TKO	Kyoji Horiguchi vs Manel Kape	11.50	$43	✗ lost −$43

UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje 2026-06-15 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly · −$26

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Josh Hokit wins by KO or Decision	Derrick Lewis vs Josh Hokit	1.78	$73	✓ won +$57
Ilia Topuria wins by DEC	Justin Gaethje vs Ilia Topuria	13.00	$57	✗ lost −$57
Steve Garcia wins	Steve Garcia vs Diego Lopes	2.48	$52	✗ lost −$52
Bo Nickal wins by KO or Decision	Kyle Daukaus vs Bo Nickal	1.71	$38	✓ won +$27

UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez 2026-08-01 · $33/parlay · +$37

2-leg parlay @ 1.79 · $33 stake ✓ WON +$26

3-leg parlay @ 2.31 · $33 stake ✓ WON +$43

4-leg parlay @ 5.28 · $33 stake ✗ LOST −$33

UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov 2026-07-25 · $33/parlay · −$99

2-leg parlay @ 2.45 · $33 stake ✗ LOST −$33

3-leg parlay @ 4.82 · $33 stake ✗ LOST −$33

4-leg parlay @ 7.24 · $33 stake ✗ LOST −$33

UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman 2026-07-18 · $33/parlay · −$99

2-leg parlay @ 2.24 · $33 stake ✗ LOST −$33

3-leg parlay @ 4.22 · $33 stake ✗ LOST −$33

4-leg parlay @ 5.36 · $33 stake ✗ LOST −$33

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 2026-07-11 · $33/parlay · −$99

2-leg parlay @ 1.99 · $33 stake ✗ LOST −$33

3-leg parlay @ 3.02 · $33 stake ✗ LOST −$33

4-leg parlay @ 4.74 · $33 stake ✗ LOST −$33

UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez 11/13 · 85%

2026-08-01

Daniel Rodriguez

20-5-0

Winner

Uroš Medić

Final · R1

✓ predicted

Uros Medic

13-3-0

▼

Model Prediction

Daniel Rodriguez 29%

KO 13%· Sub 6%· Dec 10%

Uros Medic ✓ won 71%

KO 32%· Sub 8%· Dec 31%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Uros Medic wins	71%	1.23	✓ predicted
Method Uros Medic wins by KO/TKO	32%	1.44	✓ predicted
Finish round Finish in Round 1	28%	—	pending

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Uros Medic wins by DEC value	31%	17.00	✓ won
Fight goes to Decision	41%	9.25	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	41%	8.50	✗ lost
Daniel Rodriguez significant strikes over 89.5	28%	11.00	—
Uros Medic wins in R4+ or by Decision value	35%	8.25	✓ won
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	55%	5.20	✗ lost
Daniel Rodriguez significant strikes over 79.5	33%	8.50	—
Uros Medic wins by Sub or Decision value	39%	7.00	✓ won
Fight reaches Round 5	44%	6.00	✗ lost
Daniel Rodriguez significant strikes over 69.5	37%	7.00	—
Total significant strikes over 189.5	23%	10.50	—
Daniel Rodriguez significant strikes over 59.5	42%	5.50	—
Total significant strikes over 179.5	25%	9.00	—
Total significant strikes over 159.5	31%	7.25	—
Total significant strikes over 169.5	28%	8.00	—
Total significant strikes over 149.5	34%	6.50	—
Total significant strikes over 139.5	37%	5.90	—
Total significant strikes over 129.5	40%	5.30	—
Total takedowns over 2.5	22%	9.75	—
Daniel Rodriguez wins by DEC	10%	21.00	✗ lost
Uros Medic significant strikes over 89.5	28%	7.50	—
Daniel Rodriguez significant strikes over 49.5	47%	4.33	—
Total significant strikes over 119.5	43%	4.70	—
Total takedowns over 1.5	36%	5.50	—
Uros Medic significant strikes over 79.5	32%	6.00	—
Total significant strikes over 109.5	46%	4.10	—
Daniel Rodriguez significant strikes over 39.5	54%	3.50	—
Total significant strikes over 99.5	49%	3.75	—
Uros Medic significant strikes over 69.5	37%	5.00	—
Uros Medic significant strikes over 99.5	20%	9.00	—
Total significant strikes over 89.5	53%	3.30	—
Total significant strikes over 79.5	58%	2.95	—
Daniel Rodriguez significant strikes over 29.5	64%	2.63	—
Uros Medic significant strikes over 59.5	41%	4.00	—
Total significant strikes over 69.5	63%	2.60	—
Total takedowns over 3.5	12%	14.00	—
Total significant strikes over 59.5	68%	2.30	—
Uros Medic takedowns over 0.5	36%	4.33	—
Daniel Rodriguez wins by Sub or Decision	16%	9.50	✗ lost
Uros Medic significant strikes over 49.5	46%	3.30	—
Daniel Rodriguez takedowns over 1.5	15%	10.00	—
Total significant strikes over 49.5	73%	2.00	—
Daniel Rodriguez significant strikes over 19.5	74%	1.91	—
Total takedowns over 0.5	57%	2.35	—
Uros Medic significant strikes over 39.5	51%	2.63	—
Daniel Rodriguez wins in R4+ or by Decision	12%	11.00	✗ lost
Uros Medic significant strikes over 29.5	64%	2.00	—
Over 2.5 rounds	51%	2.50	—
Daniel Rodriguez wins value	29%	4.20	✗ lost
Uros Medic significant strikes over 19.5	78%	1.57	—
Daniel Rodriguez wins by KO or Decision	23%	5.00	✗ lost
Daniel Rodriguez takedowns over 0.5	32%	3.50	—
Uros Medic takedowns over 1.5	9%	12.00	—
Daniel Rodriguez wins by Submission in R2	2%	61.00	✗ lost
Daniel Rodriguez wins by finish in Round 2	6%	18.00	✗ lost
Uros Medic wins by Submission in R3	1%	101.00	✓ won
Uros Medic significant strikes over 109.5	9%	11.00	—
Daniel Rodriguez wins by Submission in R1 or R2	5%	21.00	✗ lost
Uros Medic wins by Submission in R3, R4 or R5	2%	51.00	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission in R2	4%	23.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	14%	6.50	—
Daniel Rodriguez wins by KO/TKO in R2	4%	23.00	✗ lost
Uros Medic wins	71%	1.23	✓ won
Daniel Rodriguez wins by KO or Sub	19%	4.50	✗ lost
Daniel Rodriguez wins by Submission in R2 or R3	3%	34.00	✗ lost
Daniel Rodriguez wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	10%	8.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R5	1%	101.00	✗ lost
Daniel Rodriguez wins by SUB	6%	14.00	✗ lost
Uros Medic wins by KO or Decision	63%	1.35	✓ won
Uros Medic wins by Submission in R2 or R3	3%	26.00	✓ won
Daniel Rodriguez wins by Submission in R1	3%	29.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	2%	46.00	✗ lost
Daniel Rodriguez wins by finish in Round 1	9%	8.75	✗ lost
Daniel Rodriguez wins by KO/TKO	13%	6.00	✗ lost
Uros Medic wins by SUB	8%	10.00	✓ won
Daniel Rodriguez wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	5%	14.00	✗ lost
Uros Medic wins by Submission in R2	2%	34.00	✓ won
Under 2.5 rounds	49%	1.50	—
Fight ends by Submission in R1	7%	11.00	—
Daniel Rodriguez wins by KO/TKO in R1	6%	11.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	8%	9.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	13%	5.00	✗ lost
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	55%	1.14	✗ lost
Daniel Rodriguez wins by Submission in R3	1%	81.00	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	59%	1.05	✓ won
Uros Medic wins by KO/TKO in R3, R4 or R5	8%	8.00	✓ won
Finish before Round 5	56%	1.10	✓ won
Uros Medic wins by KO/TKO in R5	2%	31.00	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	6%	10.50	✗ lost
Uros Medic wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	13%	4.40	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R5	3%	21.00	✗ lost
Uros Medic wins by KO/TKO in R3	4%	14.00	✓ won
Daniel Rodriguez wins by Submission in R3 or R4	1%	51.00	✗ lost
Uros Medic wins by Submission in R1	4%	15.00	✓ won
Uros Medic wins by KO/TKO in R2	9%	5.80	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO	45%	1.18	—
Daniel Rodriguez wins by KO/TKO in R3	2%	31.00	✗ lost
Uros Medic wins by KO or Sub	40%	1.28	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission in R4	1%	71.00	✗ lost
Daniel Rodriguez wins by finish in Round 1	9%	5.50	✗ lost
Daniel Rodriguez wins by Submission in R4 or R5	1%	71.00	✗ lost
Daniel Rodriguez wins by KO/TKO in R3, R4 or R5	3%	15.00	✗ lost
Uros Medic wins by KO/TKO	32%	1.44	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	21%	1.99	—
Daniel Rodriguez wins by KO/TKO in R5	1%	51.00	✗ lost
Uros Medic wins by KO/TKO in R4	2%	23.00	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R4	2%	16.00	✗ lost
Uros Medic wins by KO/TKO in R1	15%	2.30	✓ won
Daniel Rodriguez wins by KO/TKO in R4	1%	41.00	✗ lost
Uros Medic wins by finish in Round 1	19%	1.39	✓ won
Total knockdowns over 0.5	2%	1.08	—

Jan Blachowicz

12-8-2

Winner

Navajo Stirling

Final · R1

✓ predicted

Navajo Stirling

9-0-0

▼

Model Prediction

Jan Blachowicz 20%

KO 6%· Sub 3%· Dec 11%

Navajo Stirling ✓ won 80%

KO 41%· Sub 5%· Dec 34%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Navajo Stirling wins	80%	1.26	✓ predicted
Method Navajo Stirling wins by KO/TKO value	41%	3.60	✓ predicted
Finish round Finish in Round 2	36%	—	pending

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Navajo Stirling wins by KO/TKO in R2 value	27%	10.00	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	31%	8.25	✗ lost
Navajo Stirling wins by finish in Round 2 value	30%	8.00	✓ won
Navajo Stirling wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3 value	37%	6.00	✓ won
Navajo Stirling wins by KO/TKO value	41%	3.60	✓ won
Navajo Stirling wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2 value	30%	4.80	✓ won
Navajo Stirling wins by KO or Sub value	46%	3.05	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission in R2	5%	26.00	✗ lost
Navajo Stirling wins by Submission in R2	3%	41.00	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO value	47%	2.85	—
Finish before Round 3	41%	3.14	✓ won
Fight ends before decision	55%	2.33	✓ won
Under 2.5 rounds	48%	2.62	—
Navajo Stirling wins by KO/TKO in R3	10%	12.00	✓ won
Jan Blachowicz wins by KO/TKO in R2	4%	29.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	12%	9.50	✗ lost
Navajo Stirling wins by finish in Round 3	12%	9.50	✓ won
Fight reaches Round 2	95%	1.14	✗ lost
Jan Blachowicz wins by Submission in R2	2%	51.00	✗ lost
Navajo Stirling wins	80%	1.26	✓ won
Navajo Stirling wins by KO or Decision	75%	1.34	✓ won
Jan Blachowicz wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	6%	17.00	✗ lost
Jan Blachowicz wins by Submission in R2 or R3	3%	34.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 59.5	76%	1.17	—
Total significant strikes over 49.5	80%	1.11	—
Jan Blachowicz significant strikes over 29.5	63%	1.40	—
Jan Blachowicz significant strikes over 19.5	77%	1.14	—
Navajo Stirling significant strikes over 59.5	54%	1.62	—
Navajo Stirling significant strikes over 19.5	82%	1.06	—
Navajo Stirling significant strikes over 69.5	45%	1.91	—
Total significant strikes over 69.5	69%	1.24	—
Navajo Stirling significant strikes over 49.5	61%	1.40	—
Navajo Stirling significant strikes over 29.5	74%	1.12	—
Navajo Stirling significant strikes over 39.5	67%	1.22	—
Jan Blachowicz significant strikes over 39.5	47%	1.72	—
Total takedowns over 0.5	66%	1.21	—
Total significant strikes over 79.5	60%	1.33	—
Jan Blachowicz wins	20%	3.85	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	8%	9.50	—
Navajo Stirling significant strikes over 79.5	32%	2.40	—
Over 2.5 rounds	52%	1.44	—
Total significant strikes over 89.5	51%	1.46	—
Jan Blachowicz wins by KO or Decision	17%	4.20	✗ lost
Navajo Stirling wins by Submission in R1 or R2	4%	19.00	✓ won
Navajo Stirling wins by Sub or Decision	39%	1.85	✓ won
Jan Blachowicz wins by KO or Sub	9%	7.75	✗ lost
Navajo Stirling wins by SUB	5%	14.00	✓ won
Navajo Stirling wins by Decision	34%	2.10	✓ won
Jan Blachowicz wins by Sub or Decision	14%	5.00	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	45%	1.56	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 99.5	43%	1.61	—
Fight goes to Decision	45%	1.55	✗ lost
Navajo Stirling wins by DEC	34%	2.05	✓ won
Jan Blachowicz wins by KO/TKO	6%	11.00	✗ lost
Jan Blachowicz significant strikes over 69.5	13%	5.00	—
Jan Blachowicz wins by DEC	11%	6.00	✗ lost
Jan Blachowicz significant strikes over 59.5	19%	3.50	—
Total significant strikes over 109.5	36%	1.82	—
Jan Blachowicz wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	5%	14.00	✗ lost
Jan Blachowicz wins by SUB	3%	21.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	2%	31.00	✗ lost
Jan Blachowicz wins in R3+ or by Decision	12%	5.25	✗ lost
Navajo Stirling takedowns over 0.5	36%	1.67	—
Jan Blachowicz takedowns over 0.5	35%	1.72	—
Total significant strikes over 119.5	29%	2.07	—
Jan Blachowicz wins by Submission in R1 or R2	2%	26.00	✗ lost
Navajo Stirling wins by Submission in R3	1%	46.00	✓ won
Jan Blachowicz significant strikes over 49.5	24%	2.40	—
Jan Blachowicz significant strikes over 79.5	8%	7.50	—
Jan Blachowicz wins by Submission in R3	1%	71.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 129.5	22%	2.40	—
Jan Blachowicz wins by KO/TKO in R3	2%	34.00	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 1.5	37%	1.42	—
Total significant strikes over 139.5	17%	2.80	—
Jan Blachowicz takedowns over 1.5	17%	2.30	—
Total significant strikes over 149.5	11%	3.35	—
Navajo Stirling significant strikes over 89.5	12%	3.00	—
Total takedowns over 2.5	20%	1.67	—
Navajo Stirling wins by KO/TKO in R1	4%	7.75	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	4%	6.25	—
Navajo Stirling takedowns over 1.5	13%	2.00	—
Fight ends by finish in Round 1	5%	5.10	✓ won
Jan Blachowicz significant strikes over 89.5	2%	11.00	—
Total takedowns over 3.5	11%	1.99	—
Total significant strikes over 159.5	5%	4.00	—
Fight ends by Submission in R1	1%	19.00	—
Jan Blachowicz takedowns over 2.5	4%	3.00	—
Total takedowns over 4.5	2%	2.45	—
Total knockdowns over 0.5	2%	1.84	—

Marcin Tybura

27-11-0

Winner

Aleksandar Rakic

Final · R3

✓ predicted

Aleksandar Rakic

6-5-0

▼

Model Prediction

Marcin Tybura 27%

KO 10%· Sub 3%· Dec 14%

Aleksandar Rakic ✓ won 73%

KO 35%· Sub 4%· Dec 34%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Marcin Tybura wins value	27%	15.00	missed
Finish round Finish in Round 1	24%	—	pending

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Marcin Tybura wins value	27%	15.00	✗ lost

Dusko Todorovic

13-6-0

Winner

Robert Valentin

Final · R1

Robert Valentin

1-3-0

▼

Model Prediction dead even — no pick

Dusko Todorovic 50%

KO 17%· Sub 5%· Dec 28%

Robert Valentin ✓ won 50%

KO 14%· Sub 16%· Dec 19%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Dusko Todorovic wins value	50%	2.32	missed
Method Dusko Todorovic wins by Decision value	28%	6.50	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	47%	1.22	pending

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Fight goes to Decision	47%	4.00	✗ lost
Robert Valentin wins by DEC value	19%	9.50	✓ won
Dusko Todorovic wins by DEC value	28%	6.50	✗ lost
Dusko Todorovic wins by Decision value	28%	6.00	✗ lost
Robert Valentin wins by Decision	19%	8.50	✓ won
Dusko Todorovic wins by KO or Decision value	45%	3.00	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 3	52%	2.56	✗ lost
Dusko Todorovic wins value	50%	2.32	✗ lost
Dusko Todorovic takedowns over 0.5	64%	1.57	—
Robert Valentin wins by Sub or Decision	36%	2.70	✓ won
Dusko Todorovic wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	16%	6.00	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	50%	1.90	—
Total significant strikes over 49.5	51%	1.83	—
Under 2.5 rounds	50%	1.80	—
Robert Valentin wins by KO or Decision	33%	2.70	✓ won
Dusko Todorovic wins by KO/TKO in R1	10%	9.00	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 0.5	79%	1.13	—
Dusko Todorovic significant strikes over 19.5	53%	1.67	—
Dusko Todorovic wins by KO/TKO	17%	5.00	✗ lost
Dusko Todorovic significant strikes over 29.5	36%	2.30	—
Dusko Todorovic wins by KO or Sub	22%	3.80	✗ lost
Dusko Todorovic wins by KO/TKO in R2	6%	14.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 59.5	38%	2.15	—
Dusko Todorovic takedowns over 1.5	39%	2.10	—
Robert Valentin wins	50%	1.61	✓ won
Dusko Todorovic significant strikes over 49.5	18%	4.50	—
Dusko Todorovic significant strikes over 39.5	24%	3.25	—
Dusko Todorovic wins by finish in Round 1	13%	6.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	18%	4.00	—
Dusko Todorovic wins by KO or Sub	22%	3.25	✗ lost
Dusko Todorovic significant strikes over 59.5	12%	6.00	—
Finish before Round 3	48%	1.47	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	11%	6.50	✗ lost
Dusko Todorovic wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	7%	9.25	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	18%	3.80	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	32%	2.15	—
Robert Valentin significant strikes over 19.5	44%	1.53	—
Total significant strikes over 89.5	18%	3.60	—
Total significant strikes over 99.5	15%	4.30	—
Robert Valentin wins by Submission in R1 or R2	15%	4.30	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 79.5	22%	3.00	—
Total takedowns over 1.5	49%	1.32	—
Fight ends before decision	53%	1.22	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 69.5	25%	2.55	—
Total significant strikes over 109.5	12%	5.20	—
Robert Valentin wins by Submission in R1	9%	6.50	✓ won
Robert Valentin takedowns over 0.5	40%	1.45	—
Robert Valentin wins by SUB	16%	3.50	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission in R1	12%	4.75	—
Robert Valentin wins by finish in Round 1	17%	3.25	✓ won
Robert Valentin wins by Submission in R2	6%	10.00	✓ won
Robert Valentin wins by KO or Sub	31%	1.85	✓ won
Robert Valentin wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	13%	4.30	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission in R2	7%	7.50	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 119.5	9%	6.25	—
Fight ends by Submission	21%	2.55	—
Robert Valentin wins by KO/TKO in R1	8%	6.50	✓ won
Robert Valentin significant strikes over 39.5	18%	2.88	—
Robert Valentin significant strikes over 29.5	25%	2.10	—
Dusko Todorovic takedowns over 2.5	19%	2.63	—
Dusko Todorovic significant strikes over 69.5	6%	8.50	—
Dusko Todorovic wins by finish in Round 1	13%	4.00	✗ lost
Robert Valentin wins by KO/TKO	14%	3.50	✓ won
Robert Valentin wins by KO/TKO in R2	5%	10.00	✓ won
Robert Valentin significant strikes over 49.5	11%	4.00	—
Total takedowns over 2.5	28%	1.56	—
Total significant strikes over 129.5	6%	7.50	—
Robert Valentin wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	6%	6.75	✓ won
Dusko Todorovic wins by Submission in R1 or R2	4%	9.50	✗ lost
Robert Valentin wins by finish in Round 1	17%	2.20	✓ won
Dusko Todorovic wins by Submission in R2	2%	23.00	✗ lost
Dusko Todorovic wins by SUB	5%	7.75	✗ lost
Dusko Todorovic wins by Submission in R1	3%	13.00	✗ lost
Dusko Todorovic takedowns over 3.5	10%	3.60	—
Total takedowns over 3.5	18%	1.87	—
Dusko Todorovic wins by Submission in R2 or R3	2%	14.00	✗ lost
Dusko Todorovic wins by KO/TKO in R3	1%	19.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	4%	6.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	3%	10.00	✗ lost
Robert Valentin significant strikes over 59.5	5%	5.50	—
Total takedowns over 4.5	10%	2.45	—
Robert Valentin wins by Submission in R3	1%	16.00	✓ won
Robert Valentin takedowns over 1.5	12%	1.91	—
Fight ends by Submission in R3	2%	11.50	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 139.5	2%	9.00	—
Robert Valentin wins by KO/TKO in R3	1%	16.00	✓ won
Total takedowns over 5.5	2%	2.95	—
Total knockdowns over 0.5	2%	1.51	—

Gilbert Urbina

7-5-0

Winner

Gilbert Urbina

Final · R1

✗ wrong

Vlasto Cepo

0-0-0

▼

Model Prediction

Gilbert Urbina ✓ won 35%

KO 12%· Sub 9%· Dec 13%

Vlasto Cepo 65%

KO 30%· Sub 16%· Dec 20%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Vlasto Cepo wins	65%	1.28	missed
Method Vlasto Cepo wins by KO/TKO	30%	1.48	missed
Finish round Finish in Round 1	37%	—	pending

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Vlasto Cepo wins by Submission in R2 or R3	7%	51.00	✗ lost
Vlasto Cepo wins by Submission in R3	2%	151.00	✗ lost
Vlasto Cepo wins by Submission in R2	5%	71.00	✗ lost
Vlasto Cepo wins in R3+ or by Decision value	28%	11.00	✗ lost
Vlasto Cepo wins by DEC value	20%	15.00	✗ lost
Vlasto Cepo wins by Sub or Decision value	36%	7.50	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	33%	7.75	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	33%	7.50	✗ lost
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	43%	5.20	✗ lost
Gilbert Urbina wins by DEC	13%	16.00	✓ won
Gilbert Urbina takedowns over 2.5	16%	13.00	—
Vlasto Cepo wins by SUB	16%	12.50	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 3.5	21%	9.00	—
Total takedowns over 4.5	12%	15.00	—
Total takedowns over 2.5	36%	5.00	—
Gilbert Urbina wins by KO or Decision value	26%	7.00	✓ won
Under 2.5 rounds	62%	2.87	—
Vlasto Cepo takedowns over 2.5	14%	13.00	—
Vlasto Cepo wins by Submission in R1 or R2	13%	13.00	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 2	63%	2.72	✗ lost
Gilbert Urbina takedowns over 1.5	30%	5.50	—
Gilbert Urbina wins by Decision	13%	12.00	✓ won
Total takedowns over 1.5	56%	2.60	—
Vlasto Cepo wins by KO/TKO in R3	4%	34.00	✗ lost
Gilbert Urbina wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	11%	12.50	✓ won
Gilbert Urbina wins by KO/TKO in R1	7%	19.00	✓ won
Vlasto Cepo wins by Submission in R1	9%	15.00	✗ lost
Gilbert Urbina wins value	35%	3.72	✓ won
Vlasto Cepo takedowns over 1.5	23%	5.50	—
Gilbert Urbina wins by KO/TKO	12%	10.00	✓ won
Gilbert Urbina takedowns over 0.5	58%	2.00	—
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	6%	19.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	25%	4.50	—
Gilbert Urbina significant strikes over 29.5	40%	2.80	—
Gilbert Urbina wins by Sub or Decision	23%	4.90	✓ won
Total takedowns over 0.5	75%	1.45	—
Fight ends by Submission in R1	14%	7.50	—
Gilbert Urbina significant strikes over 19.5	54%	1.91	—
Gilbert Urbina significant strikes over 39.5	26%	3.75	—
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	20%	4.90	✗ lost
Gilbert Urbina wins by finish in Round 1	12%	8.00	✓ won
Gilbert Urbina significant strikes over 49.5	19%	5.00	—
Fight ends by Submission in R2	7%	13.00	✗ lost
Gilbert Urbina wins by KO/TKO in R2	4%	26.00	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 49.5	50%	1.87	—
Total significant strikes over 59.5	43%	2.20	—
Vlasto Cepo wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	13%	7.25	✗ lost
Gilbert Urbina wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	5%	17.00	✓ won
Vlasto Cepo takedowns over 0.5	42%	2.20	—
Total significant strikes over 69.5	35%	2.60	—
Gilbert Urbina wins by KO or Sub	22%	4.20	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 79.5	28%	3.05	—
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	12%	6.75	✗ lost
Vlasto Cepo wins	65%	1.28	✗ lost
Gilbert Urbina significant strikes over 59.5	13%	6.50	—
Fight ends by Submission in R3	3%	23.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 89.5	22%	3.50	—
Vlasto Cepo wins by KO/TKO in R2	9%	8.25	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	67%	1.07	✓ won
Vlasto Cepo significant strikes over 19.5	52%	1.36	—
Total significant strikes over 99.5	17%	4.10	—
Vlasto Cepo wins by KO or Decision	50%	1.37	✗ lost
Vlasto Cepo significant strikes over 29.5	37%	1.83	—
Finish before Round 3	57%	1.14	✓ won
Gilbert Urbina wins by Submission in R1	5%	12.50	✓ won
Gilbert Urbina wins by finish in Round 1	12%	5.25	✓ won
Gilbert Urbina wins by Submission in R1 or R2	8%	7.75	✓ won
Vlasto Cepo wins by KO or Sub	45%	1.35	✗ lost
Gilbert Urbina wins by KO/TKO in R3	2%	34.00	✓ won
Vlasto Cepo significant strikes over 39.5	24%	2.50	—
Gilbert Urbina wins by SUB	9%	6.25	✓ won
Vlasto Cepo significant strikes over 49.5	18%	3.25	—
Fight ends by KO/TKO	42%	1.32	—
Total significant strikes over 109.5	12%	4.60	—
Over 2.5 rounds	38%	1.36	—
Gilbert Urbina significant strikes over 69.5	6%	8.00	—
Vlasto Cepo significant strikes over 59.5	12%	4.20	—
Gilbert Urbina wins by Submission in R2	3%	16.00	✓ won
Vlasto Cepo wins by KO/TKO	30%	1.48	✗ lost
Vlasto Cepo wins by finish in Round 1	25%	1.66	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	24%	1.69	—
Vlasto Cepo wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	25%	1.52	✗ lost
Vlasto Cepo wins by finish in Round 1	25%	1.39	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 119.5	7%	5.30	—
Vlasto Cepo significant strikes over 69.5	6%	5.00	—
Gilbert Urbina wins by Submission in R3	1%	23.00	✓ won
Vlasto Cepo wins by KO/TKO in R1	17%	1.80	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 129.5	2%	5.90	—
Total knockdowns over 0.5	2%	1.13	—

Milos Janicic

Winner

Noah Gugnon

Final · R1

✓ predicted

Noah Gugnon

▼

Model Prediction

Milos Janicic 46%

KO 11%· Sub 12%· Dec 24%

Noah Gugnon ✓ won 54%

KO 12%· Sub 13%· Dec 29%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Noah Gugnon wins value	54%	2.10	✓ predicted
Method Noah Gugnon wins by Decision value	29%	5.80	✓ predicted
Finish round Goes the distance	52%	3.31	pending

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Fight goes to decision	52%	3.31	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	52%	3.20	✗ lost
Noah Gugnon wins by DEC value	29%	5.80	✓ won
Milos Janicic wins by DEC value	24%	6.75	✗ lost
Noah Gugnon wins by Decision value	29%	5.50	✓ won
Milos Janicic wins by Sub or Decision value	36%	4.40	✗ lost
Noah Gugnon wins by Sub or Decision value	41%	3.45	✓ won
Milos Janicic wins by Decision	24%	6.00	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 3	62%	2.19	✗ lost
Milos Janicic wins by SUB	12%	10.00	✗ lost
Milos Janicic wins by Submission in R1 or R2	10%	12.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	25%	4.70	—
Noah Gugnon wins value	54%	2.10	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission in R1	12%	9.00	—
Milos Janicic wins by Submission in R1	6%	18.00	✗ lost
Noah Gugnon wins by KO or Decision	41%	2.65	✓ won
Milos Janicic wins by Submission in R2 or R3	6%	18.00	✗ lost
Milos Janicic wins by Submission in R3	2%	46.00	✗ lost
Noah Gugnon wins by SUB	13%	7.50	✓ won
Noah Gugnon wins by Submission in R1 or R2	10%	9.25	✓ won
Milos Janicic wins by Submission in R2	4%	26.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	8%	12.50	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	57%	1.66	—
Under 2.5 rounds	43%	2.10	—
Noah Gugnon wins by Submission in R1	6%	14.00	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission in R3	5%	18.00	✗ lost
Milos Janicic wins	46%	1.75	✗ lost
Noah Gugnon wins by finish in Round 1	13%	6.00	✓ won
Noah Gugnon wins by KO or Sub	25%	3.00	✓ won
Noah Gugnon wins by Submission in R2	4%	19.00	✓ won
Milos Janicic wins by KO or Decision	34%	1.99	✗ lost
Finish before Round 2	24%	2.69	✓ won
Noah Gugnon wins by Submission in R3	2%	26.00	✓ won
Fight ends before decision	48%	1.30	✓ won
Noah Gugnon wins by finish in Round 2	8%	7.50	✓ won
Noah Gugnon wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	10%	5.80	✓ won
Noah Gugnon wins by KO/TKO	12%	4.60	✓ won
Noah Gugnon wins by KO/TKO in R1	6%	9.00	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	9%	5.90	✗ lost
Milos Janicic wins by KO or Sub	23%	2.20	✗ lost
Noah Gugnon wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	6%	8.00	✓ won
Noah Gugnon wins by finish in Round 1	13%	3.80	✓ won
Noah Gugnon wins by KO/TKO in R2	4%	12.50	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	12%	3.50	—
Fight ends by KO/TKO	23%	1.74	—
Noah Gugnon wins by KO/TKO in R3	2%	17.00	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	7%	5.10	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	4%	7.75	✗ lost
Milos Janicic wins by finish in Round 1	11%	2.65	✗ lost
Milos Janicic wins by KO/TKO	11%	2.65	✗ lost
Milos Janicic wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	9%	3.20	✗ lost
Milos Janicic wins by KO/TKO in R1	5%	5.10	✗ lost
Milos Janicic wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	5%	5.10	✗ lost
Milos Janicic wins by KO/TKO in R2	3%	7.50	✗ lost
Milos Janicic wins by KO/TKO in R3	2%	12.00	✗ lost

Ludovit Klein

24-5-1

Winner

Tofiq Musayev

Final · R2

✗ wrong

Tofiq Musayev

23-6-0

▼

Model Prediction

Ludovit Klein 70%

KO 14%· Sub 23%· Dec 33%

Tofiq Musayev ✓ won 30%

KO 8%· Sub 3%· Dec 19%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Ludovit Klein wins	70%	1.37	missed
Method Ludovit Klein wins by Decision	33%	2.25	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	52%	2.07	pending

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Ludovit Klein wins by Submission in R2 or R3 value	15%	14.00	✗ lost
Ludovit Klein wins by Submission in R2	10%	21.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	12%	16.00	—
Ludovit Klein wins by SUB value	23%	7.75	✗ lost
Ludovit Klein wins by Submission in R1 or R2	18%	9.50	✗ lost
Ludovit Klein wins by Submission in R3	5%	31.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission value	27%	6.00	—
Fight ends by Submission in R3	6%	23.00	✗ lost
Ludovit Klein wins by finish in Round 2	16%	8.50	✗ lost
Ludovit Klein wins by KO or Sub	37%	3.15	✗ lost
Tofiq Musayev wins by DEC	19%	6.00	✓ won
Tofiq Musayev wins by Sub or Decision	22%	5.00	✓ won
Ludovit Klein wins by Submission in R1	8%	14.00	✗ lost
Ludovit Klein wins by Sub or Decision	56%	1.83	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 2	84%	1.20	✓ won
Fight ends before decision	48%	2.07	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission in R1	9%	11.00	✗ lost
Finish before Round 3	37%	2.61	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	11%	8.75	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	43%	2.25	—
Ludovit Klein wins	70%	1.37	✗ lost
Tofiq Musayev wins in R3+ or by Decision	19%	5.00	✓ won
Tofiq Musayev wins	30%	3.10	✓ won
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	63%	1.46	✗ lost
Tofiq Musayev wins by KO or Decision	27%	3.40	✓ won
Over 2.5 rounds	57%	1.57	—
Ludovit Klein wins in R3+ or by Decision	44%	2.02	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	52%	1.70	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	52%	1.69	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	9%	8.50	—
Ludovit Klein wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	9%	8.75	✗ lost
Ludovit Klein wins by KO/TKO in R2	6%	13.00	✗ lost
Tofiq Musayev wins by Submission in R2	1%	51.00	✓ won
Ludovit Klein wins by finish in Round 1	13%	6.00	✗ lost
Ludovit Klein wins by KO or Decision	47%	1.60	✗ lost
Ludovit Klein wins by DEC	33%	2.25	✗ lost
Ludovit Klein wins by KO/TKO	14%	4.80	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	22%	2.95	—
Ludovit Klein wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	11%	5.90	✗ lost
Tofiq Musayev wins by SUB	3%	18.00	✓ won
Tofiq Musayev wins by Submission in R1 or R2	3%	23.00	✓ won
Tofiq Musayev wins by KO or Sub	11%	5.25	✓ won
Ludovit Klein wins by KO/TKO in R3	3%	19.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	5%	12.00	✗ lost
Tofiq Musayev wins by KO/TKO in R2	3%	17.00	✓ won
Tofiq Musayev wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	5%	11.00	✓ won
Tofiq Musayev wins by Submission in R3	1%	71.00	✓ won
Tofiq Musayev wins by KO/TKO	8%	6.50	✓ won
Tofiq Musayev wins by finish in Round 2	5%	10.50	✓ won
Tofiq Musayev wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	6%	8.25	✓ won
Ludovit Klein wins by finish in Round 1	13%	3.90	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	7%	5.75	✗ lost
Tofiq Musayev wins by KO/TKO in R3	2%	23.00	✓ won
Ludovit Klein wins by KO/TKO in R1	5%	8.75	✗ lost
Tofiq Musayev wins by Submission in R1	1%	34.00	✓ won
Tofiq Musayev wins by finish in Round 1	4%	9.50	✓ won
Tofiq Musayev wins by KO/TKO in R1	3%	12.50	✓ won
Tofiq Musayev wins by finish in Round 1	4%	6.50	✓ won

Oban Elliott

12-4-0

Winner

Michael Oliveira

Final · R1

✓ predicted

Michael Oliveira

9-0-0

▼

Model Prediction

Oban Elliott 42%

KO 13%· Sub 9%· Dec 21%

Michael Oliveira ✓ won 58%

KO 16%· Sub 14%· Dec 28%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Michael Oliveira wins	58%	1.24	✓ predicted
Method Michael Oliveira wins by Decision	28%	4.10	✓ predicted
Finish round Goes the distance	49%	2.47	pending

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Michael Oliveira wins by Submission in R1	7%	41.00	✓ won
Michael Oliveira wins by Submission in R1 or R2	11%	26.00	✓ won
Michael Oliveira wins by SUB value	14%	21.00	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission in R1	12%	23.00	—
Fight ends by Submission value	22%	11.50	—
Michael Oliveira wins by Submission in R2	4%	61.00	✓ won
Michael Oliveira wins by Submission in R3	3%	91.00	✓ won
Oban Elliott wins by KO/TKO in R1	7%	31.00	✗ lost
Oban Elliott wins by KO or Sub value	21%	9.75	✗ lost
Oban Elliott wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	11%	19.00	✗ lost
Oban Elliott wins by KO/TKO	13%	15.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	6%	31.00	✗ lost
Oban Elliott wins by Submission in R1	5%	41.00	✗ lost
Oban Elliott wins by Submission in R1 or R2	7%	26.00	✗ lost
Oban Elliott wins by SUB	9%	21.00	✗ lost
Oban Elliott wins value	42%	4.10	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	4%	41.00	✗ lost
Oban Elliott wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	6%	26.00	✗ lost
Oban Elliott wins by KO/TKO in R2	4%	41.00	✗ lost
Michael Oliveira wins by Sub or Decision value	41%	3.60	✓ won
Oban Elliott wins by KO or Decision value	34%	4.40	✗ lost
Oban Elliott wins by Sub or Decision value	29%	4.75	✗ lost
Oban Elliott wins by finish in Round 3	4%	34.00	✗ lost
Oban Elliott wins by finish in Round 1	11%	12.00	✗ lost
Oban Elliott wins by Submission in R2 or R3	4%	34.00	✗ lost
Oban Elliott wins by Submission in R3	2%	81.00	✗ lost
Oban Elliott wins by KO/TKO in R3	2%	51.00	✗ lost
Oban Elliott wins by Submission in R2	2%	51.00	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	49%	2.47	✗ lost
Oban Elliott wins by DEC	21%	5.70	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	49%	2.40	✗ lost
Oban Elliott wins by Decision	21%	5.50	✗ lost
Michael Oliveira wins by DEC	28%	4.10	✓ won
Over 2.5 rounds	54%	2.10	—
Michael Oliveira wins by Decision	28%	4.00	✓ won
Fight reaches Round 3	58%	1.83	✗ lost
Oban Elliott wins by finish in Round 2	6%	15.00	✗ lost
Finish before Round 2	27%	3.12	✓ won
Under 2.5 rounds	46%	1.66	—
Fight ends before decision	51%	1.50	✓ won
Michael Oliveira wins	58%	1.24	✓ won
Michael Oliveira wins by KO or Decision	44%	1.28	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	15%	3.35	—
Michael Oliveira wins by finish in Round 1	16%	3.25	✓ won
Michael Oliveira wins by KO or Sub	30%	1.71	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO	29%	1.66	—
Michael Oliveira wins by finish in Round 2	8%	5.00	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	8%	5.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	5%	7.00	✗ lost
Michael Oliveira wins by finish in Round 1	16%	2.12	✓ won
Michael Oliveira wins by KO/TKO in R1	9%	3.60	✓ won
Michael Oliveira wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	13%	2.25	✓ won
Michael Oliveira wins by KO/TKO	16%	1.81	✓ won
Michael Oliveira wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	8%	3.40	✓ won
Michael Oliveira wins by KO/TKO in R2	5%	5.50	✓ won
Michael Oliveira wins by KO/TKO in R3	3%	7.50	✓ won

Borislav Nikolic

Winner

Borislav Nikolic

Final · R3

✓ predicted

Mark Vologdin

12-4-2

▼

Model Prediction

Borislav Nikolic ✓ won 51%

KO 17%· Sub 8%· Dec 27%

Mark Vologdin 49%

KO 11%· Sub 12%· Dec 26%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Borislav Nikolic wins	51%	1.13	✓ predicted
Method Borislav Nikolic wins by Decision	26%	1.51	✓ predicted
Finish round Goes the distance	53%	3.00	pending

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Mark Vologdin wins value	49%	5.10	✗ lost
Mark Vologdin wins by SUB	12%	21.00	✗ lost
Mark Vologdin wins by DEC value	26%	9.00	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	47%	3.00	—
Borislav Nikolic wins by KO/TKO	17%	6.25	✓ won
Mark Vologdin wins by KO/TKO	11%	8.50	✗ lost
Borislav Nikolic wins by SUB	8%	11.50	✓ won
Fight goes to decision	53%	1.34	—
Borislav Nikolic wins	51%	1.13	✓ won
Borislav Nikolic wins by DEC	26%	1.51	✓ won

Dennis Buzukja

12-6-0

Winner

Bogdan Grad

Final · R2

✓ predicted

Bogdan Grad

15-4-0

▼

Model Prediction

Dennis Buzukja 24%

KO 10%· Sub 1%· Dec 12%

Bogdan Grad ✓ won 76%

KO 32%· Sub 9%· Dec 35%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Dennis Buzukja wins value	24%	8.50	missed
Method Dennis Buzukja wins by Decision	12%	21.00	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	47%	2.05	pending

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Dennis Buzukja wins by DEC	12%	21.00	✗ lost
Dennis Buzukja wins value	24%	8.50	✗ lost
Bogdan Grad wins by KO/TKO value	32%	5.10	✓ won
Dennis Buzukja wins by SUB	1%	81.00	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	53%	2.05	✓ won
Fight goes to decision	47%	1.69	✗ lost
Dennis Buzukja wins by KO/TKO	10%	6.50	✗ lost
Bogdan Grad wins by DEC	35%	1.79	✓ won
Bogdan Grad wins by SUB	9%	5.70	✓ won

Kyle Prepolec

18-10-0

Winner

Mateusz Rębecki

Final · R1

✓ predicted

Mateusz Rebecki

20-5-0

▼

Model Prediction

Kyle Prepolec 7%

KO 3%· Sub 1%· Dec 4%

Mateusz Rebecki ✓ won 93%

KO 37%· Sub 14%· Dec 41%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Mateusz Rebecki wins	93%	1.11	✓ predicted
Method Mateusz Rebecki wins by Decision value	41%	3.15	✓ predicted
Finish round Goes the distance	46%	2.59	pending

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Mateusz Rebecki wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2 value	34%	4.30	✓ won
Mateusz Rebecki wins by KO/TKO in R1	21%	6.50	✓ won
Mateusz Rebecki wins by KO or Decision value	79%	1.72	✓ won
Mateusz Rebecki wins by Decision value	41%	3.20	✓ won
Mateusz Rebecki wins by KO/TKO value	38%	3.50	✓ won
Mateusz Rebecki wins by DEC value	41%	3.15	✓ won
Mateusz Rebecki wins by KO/TKO in R2	13%	9.75	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	22%	5.75	—
Fight goes to decision	46%	2.59	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	14%	8.25	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	40%	2.90	—
Fight goes to Decision	46%	2.50	✗ lost
Mateusz Rebecki wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	17%	6.50	✓ won
Over 2.5 rounds	48%	2.20	—
Mateusz Rebecki wins	93%	1.11	✓ won
Fight reaches Round 3	50%	1.90	✗ lost
Mateusz Rebecki wins by finish in Round 1	29%	3.20	✓ won
Finish before Round 2	30%	3.01	✓ won
Mateusz Rebecki wins by finish in Round 2	18%	5.00	✓ won
Mateusz Rebecki wins by Sub or Decision	55%	1.56	✓ won
Mateusz Rebecki wins by KO or Sub	51%	1.64	✓ won
Under 2.5 rounds	52%	1.61	—
Fight ends before decision	54%	1.46	✓ won
Mateusz Rebecki wins by finish in Round 1	29%	2.02	✓ won
Kyle Prepolec wins by DEC	4%	12.00	✗ lost
Kyle Prepolec wins	7%	6.70	✗ lost
Kyle Prepolec wins by KO or Decision	7%	7.00	✗ lost
Kyle Prepolec wins by Sub or Decision	5%	9.75	✗ lost
Mateusz Rebecki wins by KO/TKO in R3	3%	14.00	✓ won
Mateusz Rebecki wins by Submission in R1 or R2	13%	3.50	✓ won
Kyle Prepolec wins by Decision	4%	10.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	8%	5.40	—
Mateusz Rebecki wins by Submission in R1	8%	5.60	✓ won
Mateusz Rebecki wins by Submission in R2	5%	8.25	✓ won
Mateusz Rebecki wins by SUB	14%	2.90	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	4%	11.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	14%	2.75	—
Fight ends by Submission in R2	5%	7.75	✗ lost
Kyle Prepolec wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	2%	17.00	✗ lost
Kyle Prepolec wins by KO/TKO in R1	1%	26.00	✗ lost
Mateusz Rebecki wins by Submission in R2 or R3	6%	5.40	✓ won
Kyle Prepolec wins by KO/TKO	3%	13.00	✗ lost
Kyle Prepolec wins by KO or Sub	3%	10.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	5%	6.50	✗ lost
Kyle Prepolec wins by KO/TKO in R2	1%	34.00	✗ lost
Kyle Prepolec wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	1%	21.00	✗ lost
Kyle Prepolec wins by finish in Round 2	1%	21.00	✗ lost
Kyle Prepolec wins by finish in Round 1	2%	13.00	✗ lost
Mateusz Rebecki wins by Submission in R3	1%	12.00	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission in R3	1%	11.50	✗ lost

Hailey Cowan

7-5-0

Winner

Nina Milošević

Final · R1

✓ predicted

Nina Milosevic

▼

Model Prediction

Hailey Cowan 27%

KO 4%· Sub 7%· Dec 15%

Nina Milosevic ✓ won 73%

KO 28%· Sub 14%· Dec 31%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Nina Milosevic wins	73%	1.17	✓ predicted
Method Nina Milosevic wins by Decision	31%	2.70	✓ predicted
Finish round Goes the distance	46%	1.76	pending

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Hailey Cowan wins by Submission in R1	4%	41.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	17%	8.25	—
Hailey Cowan wins by KO or Sub	12%	12.00	✗ lost
Hailey Cowan wins by SUB	7%	19.00	✗ lost
Hailey Cowan wins value	27%	5.10	✗ lost
Hailey Cowan wins by Submission in R1 or R2	6%	23.00	✗ lost
Nina Milosevic wins by KO/TKO in R1	15%	9.00	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO	32%	4.10	—
Nina Milosevic wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	23%	5.75	✓ won
Nina Milosevic wins by KO/TKO	28%	4.60	✓ won
Hailey Cowan wins by Sub or Decision	23%	5.50	✗ lost
Hailey Cowan wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	4%	34.00	✗ lost
Hailey Cowan wins by KO/TKO in R1	2%	51.00	✗ lost
Hailey Cowan wins by KO or Decision	20%	5.80	✗ lost
Hailey Cowan wins by KO/TKO	4%	26.00	✗ lost
Finish before Round 2	29%	3.70	✓ won
Nina Milosevic wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	13%	8.00	✓ won
Hailey Cowan wins by Submission in R2	2%	51.00	✗ lost
Nina Milosevic wins by KO or Decision	59%	1.76	✓ won
Hailey Cowan wins by DEC	15%	6.75	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 1	29%	3.60	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	9%	11.00	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	49%	2.00	—
Hailey Cowan wins by Submission in R3	1%	71.00	✗ lost
Hailey Cowan wins in R3+ or by Decision	15%	6.25	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	54%	1.76	✓ won
Nina Milosevic wins by KO/TKO in R2	8%	12.00	✓ won
Fight goes to decision	46%	1.99	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	46%	1.97	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	6%	15.00	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 3	56%	1.60	✗ lost
Nina Milosevic wins by KO/TKO in R3	5%	17.00	✓ won
Over 2.5 rounds	51%	1.72	—
Hailey Cowan wins by KO/TKO in R2	1%	71.00	✗ lost
Nina Milosevic wins in R3+ or by Decision	41%	2.10	✓ won
Nina Milosevic wins	73%	1.17	✓ won
Hailey Cowan wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	2%	41.00	✗ lost
Nina Milosevic wins by DEC	31%	2.70	✓ won
Nina Milosevic wins by KO or Sub	42%	1.97	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	15%	5.00	✗ lost
Hailey Cowan wins by KO/TKO in R3	1%	91.00	✗ lost
Nina Milosevic wins by Sub or Decision	45%	1.51	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission in R1	11%	5.90	—
Fight ends by Submission	22%	2.85	—
Nina Milosevic wins by Submission in R1	8%	6.50	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission in R2	6%	8.00	✗ lost
Nina Milosevic wins by SUB	14%	3.25	✓ won
Nina Milosevic wins by Submission in R1 or R2	12%	4.00	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission in R3	4%	11.00	✗ lost
Nina Milosevic wins by Submission in R2 or R3	7%	5.75	✓ won
Nina Milosevic wins by Submission in R2	4%	8.75	✓ won
Nina Milosevic wins by Submission in R3	3%	12.50	✓ won

Alexander Poppeck

Winner

Jovan Leka

Final · R1

✓ predicted

Jovan Leka

1-0-0

▼

Model Prediction

Alexander Poppeck 23%

KO 3%· Sub 7%· Dec 14%

Jovan Leka ✓ won 77%

KO 38%· Sub 24%· Dec 15%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Jovan Leka wins	77%	1.27	✓ predicted
Method Jovan Leka wins by KO/TKO	38%	3.25	✓ predicted
Finish round Finish in Round 1	40%	—	pending

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Under 2.5 rounds	66%	2.62	—
Jovan Leka wins by finish in Round 1 value	35%	4.50	✓ won
Alexander Poppeck wins by SUB	7%	21.00	✗ lost
Alexander Poppeck wins by Sub or Decision	21%	6.25	✗ lost
Jovan Leka wins by SUB	24%	5.10	✓ won
Jovan Leka wins by KO/TKO	38%	3.25	✓ won
Jovan Leka wins by KO or Sub value	62%	1.94	✓ won
Fight ends before decision	71%	1.59	✓ won
Jovan Leka wins	77%	1.27	✓ won
Alexander Poppeck wins by Decision	14%	7.00	✗ lost
Jovan Leka wins by finish in Round 2	18%	5.00	✓ won
Alexander Poppeck wins	23%	3.82	✗ lost
Jovan Leka wins by KO or Decision	53%	1.65	✓ won
Jovan Leka wins by Sub or Decision	39%	2.05	✓ won
Alexander Poppeck wins by DEC	14%	5.60	✗ lost
Alexander Poppeck wins by KO or Decision	16%	4.00	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	29%	2.26	✗ lost
Alexander Poppeck wins by KO or Sub	10%	6.25	✗ lost
Jovan Leka wins by finish in Round 3	9%	6.50	✓ won
Alexander Poppeck wins by finish in Round 1	5%	10.00	✗ lost
Jovan Leka wins by DEC	15%	3.50	✓ won
Over 2.5 rounds	34%	1.44	—
Jovan Leka wins by Decision	15%	3.25	✓ won
Alexander Poppeck wins by finish in Round 2	3%	11.00	✗ lost
Alexander Poppeck wins by KO/TKO	3%	7.50	✗ lost
Alexander Poppeck wins by finish in Round 3	1%	13.00	✗ lost

Stephanie Luciano

2-1-0

Winner

Stephanie Luciano

Final · R1

✓ predicted

Marina Spasic

0-0-0

▼

Model Prediction

Stephanie Luciano ✓ won 74%

KO 19%· Sub 14%· Dec 41%

Marina Spasic 26%

KO 1%· Sub 4%· Dec 22%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Stephanie Luciano wins	74%	1.28	✓ predicted
Method Stephanie Luciano wins by Decision	41%	1.99	✓ predicted
Finish round Goes the distance	62%	2.68	pending

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Stephanie Luciano wins by KO/TKO in R1	10%	21.00	✓ won
Stephanie Luciano wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	15%	12.50	✓ won
Stephanie Luciano wins by KO/TKO value	19%	10.00	✓ won
Stephanie Luciano wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	9%	16.00	✓ won
Stephanie Luciano wins by KO/TKO in R2	6%	26.00	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	10%	13.00	—
Stephanie Luciano wins by KO/TKO in R3	4%	34.00	✓ won
Marina Spasic wins by Submission in R1	2%	61.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	20%	6.25	—
Marina Spasic wins by SUB	4%	29.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 1	20%	5.80	✓ won
Marina Spasic wins by Sub or Decision	26%	4.40	✗ lost
Stephanie Luciano wins by KO or Sub	33%	3.30	✓ won
Marina Spasic wins by Submission in R1 or R2	3%	34.00	✗ lost
Marina Spasic wins by Decision	22%	5.00	✗ lost
Marina Spasic wins by DEC	22%	4.90	✗ lost
Finish before Round 3	31%	3.45	✓ won
Under 2.5 rounds	34%	3.00	—
Stephanie Luciano wins by KO or Decision	59%	1.71	✓ won
Fight ends before decision	38%	2.68	✓ won
Marina Spasic wins by Submission in R2 or R3	2%	51.00	✗ lost
Marina Spasic wins	26%	3.72	✗ lost
Stephanie Luciano wins	74%	1.28	✓ won
Marina Spasic wins by Submission in R2	1%	81.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	6%	16.00	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 2	81%	1.13	✗ lost
Stephanie Luciano wins in R3+ or by Decision	51%	1.74	✓ won
Fight goes to Decision	62%	1.43	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	66%	1.33	—
Marina Spasic wins by KO or Decision	22%	3.80	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	9%	8.75	—
Stephanie Luciano wins by DEC	41%	1.99	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	4%	21.00	✗ lost
Stephanie Luciano wins by finish in Round 2	10%	8.00	✓ won
Stephanie Luciano wins by Sub or Decision	55%	1.41	✓ won
Marina Spasic wins by Submission in R3	1%	101.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	18%	4.10	—
Stephanie Luciano wins by Submission in R1	7%	9.75	✓ won
Stephanie Luciano wins by Submission in R1 or R2	12%	5.90	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	7%	9.25	✗ lost
Stephanie Luciano wins by SUB	14%	4.50	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission in R2	5%	10.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	4%	14.00	✗ lost
Stephanie Luciano wins by Submission in R2	4%	11.50	✓ won
Marina Spasic wins by KO or Sub	5%	10.00	✗ lost
Stephanie Luciano wins by Submission in R3	3%	15.00	✓ won
Marina Spasic wins by KO/TKO	1%	13.00	✗ lost