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Track record
Every pick, graded
What the model said before each fight, what happened, and the locked bets it would have placed. Losses stay on the page.
77 of 111
confident picks landed — when the model gives a fighter 70%+ it has been right 69% of the time
20–30
betting record with the same amount on every recommended bet (-2.3 units — early days, small sample)
Bankroll curve
+$852
2026-06-15
peak $990 · trough $-1008
2026-10-31
UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez 9/14 · 64%
2026-08-01
Model Prediction
Daniel Rodriguez
36%
KO 16%·
Sub 8%·
Dec 12%
Uroš Medić
✓ won
64%
KO 29%·
Sub 7%·
Dec 28%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Uroš Medić wins | 64% | 1.23 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Fight ends by KO/TKO | 45% | 1.18 | ✓ predicted |
| Finish round Finish in Round 1 | 28% | — | ✓ predicted |
Model Prediction
Jan Blachowicz
15%
KO 5%·
Sub 2%·
Dec 8%
Navajo Stirling
✓ won
85%
KO 43%·
Sub 5%·
Dec 36%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Navajo Stirling wins value | 85% | 1.26 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Navajo Stirling wins by KO/TKO value | 43% | 3.60 | ✓ predicted |
| Finish round Finish in Round 2 | 36% | — | missed |
Model Prediction
Marcin Tybura
31%
KO 11%·
Sub 3%·
Dec 16%
Aleksandar Rakic
✓ won
69%
KO 33%·
Sub 3%·
Dec 32%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Marcin Tybura wins value | 31% | 15.00 | missed |
| Finish round Finish in Round 1 | 24% | — | missed |
Model Prediction
Duško Todorović
59%
KO 21%·
Sub 6%·
Dec 33%
Robert Valentin
✓ won
41%
KO 12%·
Sub 13%·
Dec 16%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Duško Todorović wins value | 59% | 2.32 | missed |
| Method Duško Todorović wins by Decision value | 33% | 6.50 | missed |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 49% | 1.22 | missed |
Model Prediction
Gilbert Urbina
✓ won
47%
KO 17%·
Sub 12%·
Dec 18%
Vlasto Čepo
53%
KO 24%·
Sub 13%·
Dec 16%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Vlasto Čepo wins | 53% | 1.28 | missed |
| Method Vlasto Čepo wins by KO/TKO | 24% | 1.48 | missed |
| Finish round Finish in Round 1 | 37% | — | ✓ predicted |
Model Prediction
Milos Janicic
44%
KO 10%·
Sub 11%·
Dec 22%
Noah Gugnon
✓ won
56%
KO 13%·
Sub 13%·
Dec 30%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Noah Gugnon wins | 56% | 2.10 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Noah Gugnon wins by Decision value | 30% | 5.80 | missed |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 52% | 3.31 | missed |
Model Prediction
Ludovit Klein
70%
KO 14%·
Sub 23%·
Dec 33%
Tofiq Musayev
✓ won
30%
KO 8%·
Sub 3%·
Dec 18%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Ludovit Klein wins | 70% | 1.37 | missed |
| Method Ludovit Klein wins by Decision | 33% | 2.25 | missed |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 52% | 2.07 | missed |
Model Prediction
Oban Elliott
64%
KO 20%·
Sub 13%·
Dec 32%
Michael Oliveira
✓ won
36%
KO 10%·
Sub 8%·
Dec 17%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Oban Elliott wins | 64% | 4.10 | missed |
| Method Oban Elliott wins by Decision value | 32% | 5.70 | missed |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 49% | 2.47 | missed |
Model Prediction
Borislav Nikolic
✓ won
37%
KO 12%·
Sub 6%·
Dec 19%
Mark Vologdin
63%
KO 14%·
Sub 15%·
Dec 34%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Mark Vologdin wins | 63% | 5.10 | missed |
| Method Mark Vologdin wins by Decision value | 34% | 9.00 | missed |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 53% | 3.00 | ✓ predicted |
Model Prediction
Dennis Buzukja
15%
KO 7%·
Sub 1%·
Dec 8%
Bogdan Grad
✓ won
85%
KO 36%·
Sub 10%·
Dec 39%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Dennis Buzukja wins | 15% | 8.50 | missed |
| Method Dennis Buzukja wins by Decision | 8% | 21.00 | missed |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 47% | 2.05 | missed |
Model Prediction
Kyle Prepolec
3%
KO 1%·
Sub 0%·
Dec 2%
Mateusz Rębecki
✓ won
97%
KO 39%·
Sub 15%·
Dec 43%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Mateusz Rębecki wins value | 97% | 1.11 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Mateusz Rębecki wins by Decision value | 43% | 3.15 | missed |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 45% | 2.59 | missed |
Model Prediction
Hailey Cowan
36%
KO 6%·
Sub 10%·
Dec 21%
Nina Milošević
✓ won
64%
KO 24%·
Sub 12%·
Dec 27%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Nina Milošević wins | 64% | 1.17 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Nina Milošević wins by Decision | 27% | 2.70 | missed |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 48% | 1.99 | missed |
Model Prediction
Alexander Poppeck
19%
KO 2%·
Sub 6%·
Dec 11%
Jovan Leka
✓ won
81%
KO 40%·
Sub 25%·
Dec 16%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Jovan Leka wins | 81% | 1.27 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Jovan Leka wins by KO/TKO value | 40% | 3.25 | ✓ predicted |
| Finish round Finish in Round 1 | 41% | — | ✓ predicted |
Model Prediction
Stephanie Luciano
✓ won
73%
KO 19%·
Sub 14%·
Dec 40%
Marina Spasić
27%
KO 1%·
Sub 4%·
Dec 22%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Stephanie Luciano wins | 73% | 1.28 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Stephanie Luciano wins by Decision | 40% | 1.99 | missed |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 62% | 2.68 | missed |