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⟁ Past Events — Predictions vs. Actual Results
60 of 81
confident picks landed — when the model gives a fighter 70%+ it has been right 74% of the time
12–24
betting record with the same amount on every recommended bet (-14.4 units — early days, small sample)
Bankroll curve
−$849
2026-06-15
peak $158 · trough $-924
2026-09-12
UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez 9/14 · 64%
2026-08-01
Model Prediction
Daniel Rodriguez
36%
KO 16%·
Sub 8%·
Dec 12%
Uroš Medić
✓ won
64%
KO 29%·
Sub 7%·
Dec 28%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Uroš Medić wins | 64% | 1.23 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Fight ends by KO/TKO | 45% | 1.18 | ✓ predicted |
| Finish round Finish in Round 1 | 28% | — | ✓ predicted |
Model Prediction
Jan Blachowicz
15%
KO 5%·
Sub 2%·
Dec 8%
Navajo Stirling
✓ won
85%
KO 43%·
Sub 5%·
Dec 36%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Navajo Stirling wins value | 85% | 1.26 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Navajo Stirling wins by KO/TKO value | 43% | 3.60 | ✓ predicted |
| Finish round Finish in Round 2 | 36% | — | missed |
Model Prediction
Marcin Tybura
31%
KO 11%·
Sub 3%·
Dec 16%
Aleksandar Rakic
✓ won
69%
KO 33%·
Sub 3%·
Dec 32%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Marcin Tybura wins value | 31% | 15.00 | missed |
| Finish round Finish in Round 1 | 24% | — | missed |
Model Prediction
Duško Todorović
59%
KO 21%·
Sub 6%·
Dec 33%
Robert Valentin
✓ won
41%
KO 12%·
Sub 13%·
Dec 16%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Duško Todorović wins value | 59% | 2.32 | missed |
| Method Duško Todorović wins by Decision value | 33% | 6.50 | missed |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 49% | 1.22 | missed |
Model Prediction
Gilbert Urbina
✓ won
47%
KO 17%·
Sub 12%·
Dec 18%
Vlasto Čepo
53%
KO 24%·
Sub 13%·
Dec 16%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Vlasto Čepo wins | 53% | 1.28 | missed |
| Method Vlasto Čepo wins by KO/TKO | 24% | 1.48 | missed |
| Finish round Finish in Round 1 | 37% | — | ✓ predicted |
Model Prediction
Milos Janicic
44%
KO 10%·
Sub 11%·
Dec 22%
Noah Gugnon
✓ won
56%
KO 13%·
Sub 13%·
Dec 30%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Noah Gugnon wins value | 56% | 2.10 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Noah Gugnon wins by Decision value | 30% | 5.80 | missed |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 52% | 3.31 | missed |
Model Prediction
Ludovit Klein
70%
KO 14%·
Sub 23%·
Dec 33%
Tofiq Musayev
✓ won
30%
KO 8%·
Sub 3%·
Dec 18%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Ludovit Klein wins | 70% | 1.37 | missed |
| Method Ludovit Klein wins by Decision | 33% | 2.25 | missed |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 52% | 2.07 | missed |
Model Prediction
Oban Elliott
64%
KO 20%·
Sub 13%·
Dec 32%
Michael Oliveira
✓ won
36%
KO 10%·
Sub 8%·
Dec 17%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Oban Elliott wins value | 64% | 4.10 | missed |
| Method Oban Elliott wins by Decision value | 32% | 5.70 | missed |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 49% | 2.47 | missed |
Model Prediction
Borislav Nikolic
✓ won
37%
KO 12%·
Sub 6%·
Dec 19%
Mark Vologdin
63%
KO 14%·
Sub 15%·
Dec 34%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Mark Vologdin wins value | 63% | 5.10 | missed |
| Method Mark Vologdin wins by Decision value | 34% | 9.00 | missed |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 53% | 3.00 | ✓ predicted |
Model Prediction
Dennis Buzukja
15%
KO 7%·
Sub 1%·
Dec 8%
Bogdan Grad
✓ won
85%
KO 36%·
Sub 10%·
Dec 39%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Dennis Buzukja wins | 15% | 8.50 | missed |
| Method Dennis Buzukja wins by Decision | 8% | 21.00 | missed |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 47% | 2.05 | missed |
Model Prediction
Kyle Prepolec
3%
KO 1%·
Sub 0%·
Dec 2%
Mateusz Rębecki
✓ won
97%
KO 39%·
Sub 15%·
Dec 43%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Mateusz Rębecki wins value | 97% | 1.11 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Mateusz Rębecki wins by Decision value | 43% | 3.15 | missed |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 45% | 2.59 | missed |
Model Prediction
Hailey Cowan
36%
KO 6%·
Sub 10%·
Dec 21%
Nina Milošević
✓ won
64%
KO 24%·
Sub 12%·
Dec 27%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Nina Milošević wins | 64% | 1.17 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Nina Milošević wins by Decision | 27% | 2.70 | missed |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 48% | 1.99 | missed |
Model Prediction
Alexander Poppeck
19%
KO 2%·
Sub 6%·
Dec 11%
Jovan Leka
✓ won
81%
KO 40%·
Sub 25%·
Dec 16%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Jovan Leka wins | 81% | 1.27 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Jovan Leka wins by KO/TKO value | 40% | 3.25 | ✓ predicted |
| Finish round Finish in Round 1 | 41% | — | ✓ predicted |
Model Prediction
Stephanie Luciano
✓ won
73%
KO 19%·
Sub 14%·
Dec 40%
Marina Spasić
27%
KO 1%·
Sub 4%·
Dec 22%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Stephanie Luciano wins | 73% | 1.28 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Stephanie Luciano wins by Decision | 40% | 1.99 | missed |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 62% | 2.68 | missed |