Updated 2026-08-19 02:35 AEST
13
Bouts
0
Events
5
Value Bets
New here? How to read these predictions
Win probability
Our model's estimate that a fighter wins — e.g. 72% means we'd expect them to win roughly 7 of 10 times.
Confidence interval (CI)
The range the true probability likely falls in. Wider = less certain. A pick'em fight has a wide band; a clear favourite a narrow one.
Edge
How much higher our probability is than the bookmaker's implied odds. Positive edge = we think it's underpriced.
EV (expected value)
Average return if you placed the bet many times. +15% EV means about 15c profit per $1 staked, on average.
Risk tiers
Conservative leans to safe favourites, Balanced blends, Aggressive chases bigger-odds longshots. Pick what suits you.
Edge badges
Strong / Solid / Slight edge rank how much value the model sees — and how big a stake it suggests. They're not a promise the bet wins.

Tap any fight row to open the full model breakdown. New to the model itself? How it works · FAQ.

Anthony Hernandez
Hernandez
Main Event
65%
Model Leans Hernandez
2026-08-22
Gregory Rodrigues
Rodrigues
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues
2026
22
AUG
⚡ Next Event

UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues

Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, USA
13
Bouts
4
Value Bouts
Anthony Hernandez
Anthony Hernandez
United States 15-3-0 Striker Orthodox 1 loss
SB 1.56
65% | 35%
Middleweight 5 rds
⏱ Sun 12:45 PM AEST
Gregory Rodrigues
Gregory Rodrigues
Brazil 19-6-0 Grappler Orthodox 3-fight win streak
SB 2.44
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Anthony Hernandez
65.0 %
050100
CI · 35 – 95 · σ 0.064 · High
Why this pick
  • Anthony Hernandez eats 1.6 fewer strikes per minute
  • Anthony Hernandez taps opponents 42% more often
  • Anthony Hernandez hits 0.26 more takedowns per minute
  • the case against Gregory Rodrigues rides a 3-fight longer win streak
  • Gregory Rodrigues rides a 3-fight win streak (Anthony Hernandez: 0)
Method Breakdown
Hernandez Rodrigues
KO/TKO 23.4
26.6
Submission 25.6
2.5
Decision 16.0
5.9
Finish Distribution · By Round
23
R1
31
R2
9
R3
10
R4
5
R5
22
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Hernandez Rodrigues
Str/min 4.5
5.5
Sig Acc 61%
51%
Str Def 51%
51%
TD/min 0.39
0.13
Finish 83%
69%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
40
29
HernandezRodrigues
Combined 73 17–179
Takedowns
1.8
0.0
HernandezRodrigues
Combined 2.2 0.0–5.4
Fight length
Expected 2.5 of 5 rounds 22% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Hernandez

    Anthony Hernandez eats 1.6 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Rodrigues

    Gregory Rodrigues rides a 3-fight longer win streak

  • 03 Striking volume favours Rodrigues

    Gregory Rodrigues lands 1.0 more sig strikes per minute

  • 04 Submission rate favours Hernandez

    Anthony Hernandez taps opponents 42% more often

  • 05 KO rate favours Rodrigues

    Gregory Rodrigues finishes by KO 36% more often

  • 06 Takedown volume favours Hernandez

    Anthony Hernandez hits 0.26 more takedowns per minute

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed
No markets passed the value gate. 2 markets analysed.
Serghei Spivac
Serghei Spivac
18-6-0 Sambo Orthodox 1 win
SB 2.36
40% | 60%
Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 12:15 PM AEST
Vitor Petrino
Vitor Petrino
Brazil 14-2-0 Striker Orthodox 3-fight win streak
SB 1.59
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Vitor Petrino
60.3 %
050100
CI · 30 – 90 · σ 0.059 · High
Why this pick
  • Vitor Petrino eats 1.5 fewer strikes per minute
  • Vitor Petrino rides a 2-fight longer win streak
  • Vitor Petrino stuffs 17% more incoming takedowns
  • the case against Serghei Spivac lands 0.5 more sig strikes per minute
  • Vitor Petrino rides a 3-fight win streak (Serghei Spivac: 1)
Method Breakdown
Spivac Petrino
KO/TKO 10.7
33.7
Submission 15.4
4.7
Decision 13.6
21.9
Finish Distribution · By Round
33
R1
22
R2
9
R3
36
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Spivac Petrino
Str/min 3.6
3.1
Sig Acc 48%
49%
Str Def 52%
51%
TD/min 0.25
0.19
Finish 67%
67%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
31
38
SpivacPetrino
Combined 62 16–124
Takedowns
0.4
1.0
SpivacPetrino
Combined 1.2 0.0–4.8
Fight length
Expected 1.8 of 3 rounds 36% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Petrino

    Vitor Petrino eats 1.5 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Petrino

    Vitor Petrino rides a 2-fight longer win streak

  • 03 Striking volume favours Spivac

    Serghei Spivac lands 0.5 more sig strikes per minute

  • 04 KO rate favours Spivac

    Serghei Spivac finishes by KO 13% more often

  • 05 Takedown defence favours Petrino

    Vitor Petrino stuffs 17% more incoming takedowns

  • 06 Takedown volume favours Spivac

    Serghei Spivac hits 0.07 more takedowns per minute

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed
No markets passed the value gate. 2 markets analysed.
Roman Dolidze
Roman Dolidze
Georgia 15-5-0 MMA Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
SB 3.73
29% | 71%
Light Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 11:45 AM AEST
Reinier de Ridder
Reinier de Ridder
Netherlands 21-4-0 Jiu-Jitsu Southpaw 2-fight loss streak
SB 1.28
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Reinier de Ridder
71.1 %
050100
CI · 41 – 98 · σ 0.051 · High
Why this pick
  • Reinier de Ridder eats 1.4 fewer strikes per minute
  • Reinier de Ridder taps opponents 33% more often
  • Reinier de Ridder finishes 24% more of their wins
  • the case against Roman Dolidze lands 0.7 more sig strikes per minute
  • Roman Dolidze has never been finished in 14 fights
Method Breakdown
Dolidze Ridder
KO/TKO 9.4
12.1
Submission 4.0
29.4
Decision 15.6
29.6
Finish Distribution · By Round
27
R1
17
R2
11
R3
45
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Dolidze Ridder
Str/min 3.2
2.5
Sig Acc 42%
49%
Str Def 48%
47%
TD/min 0.08
0.17
Finish 43%
67%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
34
35
DolidzeRidder
Combined 67 19–118
Takedowns
0.1
1.1
DolidzeRidder
Combined 1.9 0.0–5.5
Fight length
Expected 2.0 of 3 rounds 46% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Ridder

    Reinier de Ridder eats 1.4 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Dolidze

    Roman Dolidze lands 0.7 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Submission rate favours Ridder

    Reinier de Ridder taps opponents 33% more often

  • 04 Finish rate favours Ridder

    Reinier de Ridder finishes 24% more of their wins

  • 05 Takedown volume favours Ridder

    Reinier de Ridder hits 0.09 more takedowns per minute

  • 06 KO durability favours Dolidze

    Roman Dolidze has been KO'd 17% less often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed
No markets passed the value gate. 2 markets analysed.
Mason Jones
Mason Jones
Wales 18-2-0 MMA Orthodox 3-fight win streak
SB 1.36
72% | 28%
Lightweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 11:15 AM AEST
MarQuel Mederos
MarQuel Mederos
United States 11-1-1 MMA Orthodox 1 loss
SB 3.17
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Mason Jones
71.7 %
050100
CI · 42 – 98 · σ 0.064 · High
Why this pick
  • Mason Jones rides a 3-fight longer win streak
  • Mason Jones lands 0.9 more sig strikes per minute
  • Mason Jones eats 0.3 fewer strikes per minute
  • Mason Jones rides a 3-fight win streak (MarQuel Mederos: 0)
Method Breakdown
Jones Mederos
KO/TKO 31.4
10.2
Submission 6.1
2.5
Decision 34.2
15.6
Finish Distribution · By Round
25
R1
15
R2
10
R3
50
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Jones Mederos
Str/min 6.0
5.1
Sig Acc 43%
55%
Str Def 51%
52%
TD/min 0.23
0.02
Finish 14%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
59
55
JonesMederos
Combined 115 23–184
Takedowns
1.7
0.0
JonesMederos
Combined 2.2 0.0–5.7
Fight length
Expected 2.1 of 3 rounds 50% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Jones

    Mason Jones rides a 3-fight longer win streak

  • 02 Striking volume favours Jones

    Mason Jones lands 0.9 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Strikes absorbed favours Jones

    Mason Jones eats 0.3 fewer strikes per minute

  • 04 Takedown volume favours Jones

    Mason Jones hits 0.22 more takedowns per minute

  • 05 Finish rate favours Jones

    Mason Jones finishes 14% more of their wins

  • 06 KO rate favours Jones

    Mason Jones finishes by KO 14% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed
No markets passed the value gate. 2 markets analysed.
Carli Judice
Carli Judice
United States 6-2-0 Southpaw 3-fight win streak
SB 1.16
75% | 25%
Women's Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 10:45 AM AEST
Jeisla Chaves
Jeisla Chaves
Brazil 1-0-0 Orthodox 1 win
SB 5.30
Breakdown ▼
1 value bet on SportsBet
Model Favourite
Carli Judice
74.6 %
050100
CI · 45 – 98 · σ 0.039 · High
Why this pick
  • Carli Judice lands 3.9 more sig strikes per minute
  • Carli Judice rides a 2-fight longer win streak
  • Carli Judice finishes 47% more of their wins
  • the case against Jeisla Chaves eats 0.5 fewer strikes per minute
  • Carli Judice out-volumes opponents at 8.1 sig/min vs Jeisla Chaves's 4.3
Method Breakdown
Judice Chaves
KO/TKO 22.7
5.7
Submission 2.9
2.0
Decision 49.1
17.7
Finish Distribution · By Round
16
R1
10
R2
7
R3
67
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Judice Chaves
Str/min 8.1
4.3
Sig Acc 45%
65%
Str Def 60%
45%
TD/min 0.04
0.20
Finish 47%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
53
48
JudiceChaves
Combined 97 22–160
Takedowns
0.0
1.3
JudiceChaves
Combined 1.9 0.0–4.8
Fight length
Expected 2.4 of 3 rounds 67% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Judice

    Carli Judice lands 3.9 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Judice

    Carli Judice rides a 2-fight longer win streak

  • 03 Strikes absorbed favours Chaves

    Jeisla Chaves eats 0.5 fewer strikes per minute

  • 04 Finish rate favours Judice

    Carli Judice finishes 47% more of their wins

  • 05 KO rate favours Judice

    Carli Judice finishes by KO 47% more often

  • 06 Takedown defence favours Judice

    Carli Judice stuffs 33% more incoming takedowns

Value Bets · SportsBet 1 flagged · 2 markets analysed
  • Jeisla Chaves wins
    Strong edge
    Model 25%
    Bookies 19%
    EV / $100 +$34
    Stake 2.0%
    5.30
    $20 returns $106
    +$86 profit
AW
Anthony Wint
nan
SB 1.08
73% | 27%
Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 10:15 AM AEST
TC
Terrance Chatman
United States 0-0-0 nan
SB 8.00
Breakdown ▼
1 value bet on SportsBet
Model Favourite
Anthony Wint
73.2 %
050100
CI · 43 – 98 · σ 0.102 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Model uncertainty: ±10pp on the win probability
Method Breakdown
Wint Chatman
KO/TKO 28.9
9.6
Submission 23.5
7.2
Decision 20.8
10.0
Finish Distribution · By Round
41
R1
16
R2
9
R3
31
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Wint Chatman
Str/min 0.0
0.0
Sig Acc 0%
0%
Str Def 0%
0%
TD/min 0.00
0.00
Finish 0%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
21
21
WintChatman
Combined 35 13–136
Takedowns
0.1
0.1
WintChatman
Combined 1.2 0.0–4.7
Fight length
Expected 1.7 of 3 rounds 33% chance it goes the distance
Value Bets · SportsBet 1 flagged · 2 markets analysed
  • Terrance Chatman wins
    Strong edge
    Model 27%
    Bookies 12%
    EV / $100 +$114
    Stake 4.1%
    8.00
    $41 returns $328
    +$287 profit
Jamall Emmers
Jamall Emmers
United States 22-8-0 Kickboxer Orthodox 2-fight win streak
SB 4.00
27% | 73%
Featherweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 9:35 AM AEST
Lerryan Douglas
Lerryan Douglas
Brazil 14-5-0 MMA Orthodox 1 win
SB 1.25
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Lerryan Douglas
72.8 %
050100
CI · 43 – 98 · σ 0.052 · High
Why this pick
  • Lerryan Douglas lands 1.3 more sig strikes per minute
  • Lerryan Douglas finishes by KO 43% more often
  • Lerryan Douglas finishes 32% more of their wins
  • the case against Jamall Emmers eats 1.2 fewer strikes per minute
  • Lerryan Douglas out-volumes opponents at 6.2 sig/min vs Jamall Emmers's 4.9
Method Breakdown
Emmers Douglas
KO/TKO 4.4
26.5
Submission 2.7
3.8
Decision 20.1
42.5
Finish Distribution · By Round
19
R1
11
R2
7
R3
63
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Emmers Douglas
Str/min 4.9
6.2
Sig Acc 47%
46%
Str Def 59%
63%
TD/min 0.18
0.00
Finish 44%
76%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
44
41
EmmersDouglas
Combined 89 18–147
Takedowns
0.7
0.0
EmmersDouglas
Combined 1.4 0.0–5.0
Fight length
Expected 2.3 of 3 rounds 63% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Emmers

    Jamall Emmers eats 1.2 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Douglas

    Lerryan Douglas lands 1.3 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 KO rate favours Douglas

    Lerryan Douglas finishes by KO 43% more often

  • 04 Finish rate favours Douglas

    Lerryan Douglas finishes 32% more of their wins

  • 05 Win streak favours Emmers

    Jamall Emmers rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 06 Takedown volume favours Emmers

    Jamall Emmers hits 0.18 more takedowns per minute

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed
No markets passed the value gate. 2 markets analysed.
Kennedy Nzechukwu
Kennedy Nzechukwu
United States 14-6-1 Wrestler Southpaw 2-fight loss streak
SB 2.17
59% | 41%
Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 9:15 AM AEST
Shamil Gaziev
Shamil Gaziev
Russia 14-3-0 MMA Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
SB 1.70
Breakdown ▼
1 value bet on SportsBet
Model Favourite
Kennedy Nzechukwu
59.2 %
050100
CI · 29 – 89 · σ 0.045 · High
Why this pick
  • Kennedy Nzechukwu lands 1.7 more sig strikes per minute
  • Kennedy Nzechukwu eats 0.6 fewer strikes per minute
  • Kennedy Nzechukwu has been KO'd 37% less often
  • the case against Shamil Gaziev finishes by KO 30% more often
  • Kennedy Nzechukwu out-volumes opponents at 4.7 sig/min vs Shamil Gaziev's 3.0
Method Breakdown
Nzechukwu Gaziev
KO/TKO 44.7
21.2
Submission 1.7
8.7
Decision 12.7
10.9
Finish Distribution · By Round
47
R1
23
R2
7
R3
24
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Nzechukwu Gaziev
Str/min 4.7
3.0
Sig Acc 50%
45%
Str Def 51%
45%
TD/min 0.04
0.07
Finish 73%
83%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
36
25
NzechukwuGaziev
Combined 68 13–124
Takedowns
0.0
0.2
NzechukwuGaziev
Combined 0.7 0.0–4.0
Fight length
Expected 1.4 of 3 rounds 23% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Nzechukwu

    Kennedy Nzechukwu lands 1.7 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Nzechukwu

    Kennedy Nzechukwu eats 0.6 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 KO rate favours Gaziev

    Shamil Gaziev finishes by KO 30% more often

  • 04 KO durability favours Nzechukwu

    Kennedy Nzechukwu has been KO'd 37% less often

  • 05 Finish rate favours Gaziev

    Shamil Gaziev finishes 10% more of their wins

  • 06 Control time favours Gaziev

    Shamil Gaziev controls 23% more cage time

Value Bets · SportsBet 1 flagged · 2 markets analysed
  • Kennedy Nzechukwu wins
    Strong edge
    Model 59%
    Bookies 46%
    EV / $100 +$28
    Stake 6.1%
    2.17
    $61 returns $132
    +$71 profit
Chris Padilla
Chris Padilla
United States 17-6-1 Orthodox 1 loss
SB 2.00
53% | 47%
Lightweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 8:50 AM AEST
Nasrat Haqparast
Nasrat Haqparast
Germany 18-6-0 Muay Thai Southpaw 1 loss
SB 1.84
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Chris Padilla
52.8 %
050100
CI · 23 – 83 · σ 0.066 · High
Why this pick
  • Chris Padilla eats 1.1 fewer strikes per minute
  • Chris Padilla finishes 33% more of their wins
  • Chris Padilla taps opponents 20% more often
  • the case against Nasrat Haqparast lands 0.2 more sig strikes per minute
  • Chris Padilla has never been finished in 5 fights
Method Breakdown
Padilla Haqparast
KO/TKO 14.4
18.6
Submission 6.3
1.9
Decision 32.0
26.7
Finish Distribution · By Round
21
R1
13
R2
6
R3
59
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Padilla Haqparast
Str/min 6.2
6.4
Sig Acc 54%
46%
Str Def 49%
63%
TD/min 0.08
0.02
Finish 60%
27%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
62
59
PadillaHaqparast
Combined 122 22–193
Takedowns
0.0
0.0
PadillaHaqparast
Combined 0.5 0.0–4.0
Fight length
Expected 2.2 of 3 rounds 59% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Padilla

    Chris Padilla eats 1.1 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Finish rate favours Padilla

    Chris Padilla finishes 33% more of their wins

  • 03 Submission rate favours Padilla

    Chris Padilla taps opponents 20% more often

  • 04 KO rate favours Padilla

    Chris Padilla finishes by KO 13% more often

  • 05 Striking volume favours Haqparast

    Nasrat Haqparast lands 0.2 more sig strikes per minute

  • 06 Striking defence favours Haqparast

    Nasrat Haqparast avoids 14% more incoming strikes

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed
No markets passed the value gate. 2 markets analysed.
Marcio Barbosa
Marcio Barbosa
Brazil 17-2-0 MMA Orthodox 1 win
SB 1.10
75% | 25%
Featherweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 8:50 AM AEST
RK
Ryan Kuse
United States 0-0-0 nan
SB 7.00
Breakdown ▼
1 value bet on SportsBet
Model Favourite
Marcio Barbosa
75.5 %
050100
CI · 45 – 98 · σ 0.062 · High
Why this pick
  • Marcio Barbosa rides a 1-fight longer win streak
  • Marcio Barbosa has never been finished in 1 fights
Method Breakdown
Barbosa Kuse
KO/TKO 29.7
6.3
Submission 12.7
5.9
Decision 33.0
12.4
Finish Distribution · By Round
39
R1
10
R2
4
R3
45
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Barbosa Kuse
Str/min 2.3
0.0
Sig Acc 38%
0%
Str Def 62%
0%
TD/min 0.00
0.00
Finish 76%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
21
21
BarbosaKuse
Combined 49 15–127
Takedowns
0.0
0.0
BarbosaKuse
Combined 1.4 0.0–4.7
Fight length
Expected 1.8 of 3 rounds 46% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Barbosa

    Marcio Barbosa rides a 1-fight longer win streak

Value Bets · SportsBet 1 flagged · 2 markets analysed
  • Ryan Kuse wins
    Strong edge
    Model 25%
    Bookies 14%
    EV / $100 +$72
    Stake 3.0%
    7.00
    $30 returns $210
    +$180 profit
Gauge Young
Gauge Young
United States 11-3-0 MMA Orthodox 2-fight win streak
SB 1.78
60% | 40%
Lightweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 8:25 AM AEST
SD
Stan Dorsainvil
United States 0-0-0 nan
SB 2.08
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Gauge Young
60.5 %
050100
CI · 30 – 90 · σ 0.070 · High
Why this pick
  • Gauge Young rides a 2-fight longer win streak
  • Gauge Young out-volumes opponents at 6.2 sig/min vs Stan Dorsainvil's 0.0
Method Breakdown
Young Dorsainvil
KO/TKO 19.4
10.9
Submission 9.3
7.3
Decision 31.7
21.3
Finish Distribution · By Round
25
R1
15
R2
7
R3
53
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Young Dorsainvil
Str/min 6.2
0.0
Sig Acc 46%
0%
Str Def 51%
0%
TD/min 0.06
0.00
Finish 0%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
44
31
YoungDorsainvil
Combined 83 20–161
Takedowns
0.2
0.1
YoungDorsainvil
Combined 1.3 0.0–4.4
Fight length
Expected 2.1 of 3 rounds 53% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Young

    Gauge Young rides a 2-fight longer win streak

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed
No markets passed the value gate. 2 markets analysed.
Wes Schultz
Wes Schultz
United States 9-3-0 MMA Orthodox 1 win
SB 2.47
38% | 62%
Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 7:35 AM AEST
Jackson McVey
Jackson McVey
United States 7-2-0 Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Southpaw 1 win
SB 1.55
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Jackson McVey
62.1 %
050100
CI · 32 – 92 · σ 0.074 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Jackson McVey lands 5.5 more sig strikes per minute
  • Jackson McVey has been KO'd 50% less often
  • the case against Wes Schultz eats 1.5 fewer strikes per minute
  • Jackson McVey out-volumes opponents at 6.5 sig/min vs Wes Schultz's 1.0
Method Breakdown
Schultz McVey
KO/TKO 1.9
13.0
Submission 29.1
31.4
Decision 6.9
17.7
Finish Distribution · By Round
46
R1
23
R2
7
R3
25
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Schultz McVey
Str/min 1.0
6.5
Sig Acc 50%
69%
Str Def 31%
24%
TD/min 0.00
0.00
Finish 100%
100%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
13
19
SchultzMcVey
Combined 40 10–107
Takedowns
0.8
0.5
SchultzMcVey
Combined 1.5 0.0–4.2
Fight length
Expected 1.5 of 3 rounds 25% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours McVey

    Jackson McVey lands 5.5 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Schultz

    Wes Schultz eats 1.5 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 KO rate favours Schultz

    Wes Schultz finishes by KO 50% more often

  • 04 KO durability favours McVey

    Jackson McVey has been KO'd 50% less often

  • 05 Sub defence favours Schultz

    Wes Schultz has been submitted 67% less often

  • 06 Submission rate favours Schultz

    Wes Schultz taps opponents 17% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed
No markets passed the value gate. 2 markets analysed.
Elise Reed
Elise Reed
United States 8-5-0 Striker Orthodox 1 loss
SB 6.05
18% | 82%
Women's Strawweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 7:10 AM AEST
Shanelle Dyer
Shanelle Dyer
England 7-1-0 Muay Thai Orthodox 1 win
SB 1.13
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Shanelle Dyer
82.0 %
050100
CI · 52 – 98 · σ 0.065 · High
Why this pick
  • Shanelle Dyer lands 2.5 more sig strikes per minute
  • Shanelle Dyer finishes by KO 43% more often
  • Shanelle Dyer rides a 1-fight longer win streak
  • the case against Elise Reed eats 0.9 fewer strikes per minute
  • Shanelle Dyer out-volumes opponents at 5.9 sig/min vs Elise Reed's 3.4
Method Breakdown
Reed Dyer
KO/TKO 7.2
32.1
Submission 2.6
13.8
Decision 8.2
36.1
Finish Distribution · By Round
29
R1
18
R2
8
R3
44
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Reed Dyer
Str/min 3.4
5.9
Sig Acc 53%
48%
Str Def 52%
68%
TD/min 0.03
0.12
Finish 56%
76%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
33
37
ReedDyer
Combined 68 16–145
Takedowns
0.0
0.6
ReedDyer
Combined 1.5 0.0–4.8
Fight length
Expected 2.0 of 3 rounds 44% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Dyer

    Shanelle Dyer lands 2.5 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Reed

    Elise Reed eats 0.9 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 KO rate favours Dyer

    Shanelle Dyer finishes by KO 43% more often

  • 04 Win streak favours Dyer

    Shanelle Dyer rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 05 Takedown defence favours Dyer

    Shanelle Dyer stuffs 47% more incoming takedowns

  • 06 Finish rate favours Dyer

    Shanelle Dyer finishes 20% more of their wins

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed
No markets passed the value gate. 2 markets analysed.