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⟁ Past Events — Predictions vs. Actual Results
68 of 94
confident picks landed — when the model gives a fighter 70%+ it has been right 72% of the time
14–26
betting record with the same amount on every recommended bet (-14.9 units — early days, small sample)
Bankroll curve
−$859
2026-06-15
peak $160 · trough $-946
2026-09-19
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues 7/12 · 58%
2026-08-22
15-3-0
Winner
Gregory Rodrigues
Decision (U) · R5
✗ wrong
19-6-0
Model Prediction
Anthony Hernandez
69%
KO 25%·
Sub 27%·
Dec 17%
Gregory Rodrigues
✓ won
31%
KO 24%·
Sub 2%·
Dec 5%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Anthony Hernandez wins | 69% | 1.36 | missed |
| Finish round Finish in Round 2 | 31% | — | missed |
Model Prediction
Serghei Spivac
39%
KO 11%·
Sub 15%·
Dec 13%
Vitor Petrino
✓ won
61%
KO 34%·
Sub 5%·
Dec 22%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Vitor Petrino wins | 61% | 1.67 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Vitor Petrino wins by KO/TKO | 34% | 3.05 | missed |
| Finish round Finish in Round 1 | 33% | 3.25 | missed |
Model Prediction
Roman Dolidze
33%
KO 11%·
Sub 4%·
Dec 18%
Reinier de Ridder
✓ won
67%
KO 12%·
Sub 28%·
Dec 28%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Reinier de Ridder wins | 67% | 1.24 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Reinier de Ridder wins by Decision | 28% | 2.35 | missed |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 46% | 1.80 | missed |
Model Prediction
Mason Jones
73%
KO 32%·
Sub 6%·
Dec 35%
MarQuel Mederos
✓ won
27%
KO 10%·
Sub 2%·
Dec 15%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Mason Jones wins | 73% | 1.22 | missed |
| Method Mason Jones wins by Decision | 35% | 2.75 | missed |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 50% | 2.15 | missed |
Model Prediction
Carli Judice
✓ won
68%
KO 21%·
Sub 3%·
Dec 45%
Jeisla Chaves
32%
KO 7%·
Sub 2%·
Dec 22%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Carli Judice wins | 68% | 1.16 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Carli Judice wins by Decision | 45% | 2.35 | missed |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 67% | 1.87 | missed |
Model Prediction dead even — no pick
Anthony Wint
✓ won
50%
KO 20%·
Sub 16%·
Dec 14%
Terrance Chatman
50%
KO 18%·
Sub 13%·
Dec 19%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Anthony Wint wins | 50% | 1.10 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Anthony Wint wins by KO/TKO | 20% | 1.31 | missed |
| Finish round Finish in Round 1 | 41% | — | ✓ predicted |
Model Prediction
Jamall Emmers
✓ won
31%
KO 5%·
Sub 3%·
Dec 23%
Lerryan Douglas
69%
KO 25%·
Sub 4%·
Dec 40%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Lerryan Douglas wins | 69% | 1.23 | missed |
| Method Lerryan Douglas wins by Decision value | 40% | 6.75 | missed |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 63% | 3.70 | missed |
Model Prediction
Kennedy Nzechukwu
73%
KO 55%·
Sub 2%·
Dec 16%
Shamil Gaziev
✓ won
27%
KO 14%·
Sub 6%·
Dec 7%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Kennedy Nzechukwu wins value | 73% | 2.08 | missed |
| Method Kennedy Nzechukwu wins by KO/TKO value | 55% | 3.10 | missed |
| Finish round Finish in Round 1 | 47% | — | ✓ predicted |
Model Prediction
Chris Padilla
✓ won
56%
KO 15%·
Sub 7%·
Dec 34%
Nasrat Haqparast
44%
KO 18%·
Sub 2%·
Dec 25%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Chris Padilla wins | 56% | 1.45 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Chris Padilla wins by Decision | 34% | 1.90 | missed |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 59% | 3.45 | missed |
Model Prediction
Marcio Barbosa
✓ won
60%
KO 24%·
Sub 10%·
Dec 26%
Ryan Kuse
40%
KO 10%·
Sub 10%·
Dec 20%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Ryan Kuse wins value | 40% | 7.75 | missed |
| Method Ryan Kuse wins by Decision value | 20% | 251.00 | missed |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 46% | 8.25 | missed |
Model Prediction
Gauge Young
68%
KO 22%·
Sub 11%·
Dec 36%
Stan Dorsainvil
✓ won
32%
KO 9%·
Sub 6%·
Dec 17%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Gauge Young wins | 68% | 1.50 | missed |
| Method Gauge Young wins by Decision | 36% | 2.55 | missed |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 53% | 2.21 | ✓ predicted |
Model Prediction
Wes Schultz
37%
KO 2%·
Sub 29%·
Dec 7%
Jackson McVey
✓ won
63%
KO 13%·
Sub 32%·
Dec 18%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Jackson McVey wins | 63% | 1.57 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Jackson McVey wins by Submission value | 32% | 5.60 | missed |
| Finish round Finish in Round 1 | 46% | — | ✓ predicted |
Model Prediction
Elise Reed
20%
KO 8%·
Sub 3%·
Dec 9%
Shanelle Dyer
✓ won
80%
KO 31%·
Sub 14%·
Dec 35%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Elise Reed wins value | 20% | 10.00 | missed |
| Method Elise Reed wins by Decision | 9% | 16.00 | missed |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 44% | 2.95 | missed |