UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues — Results & Recap

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⟁ Past Events — Predictions vs. Actual Results

169 / 246

Correct Picks

68.7% accuracy · 24 events

9 / 16

Parlay Legs

9 parlays · −$514

−$859

Running P&L · opening

$1000 / event · Conservative · Kelly-weighted · closing: +$402

64 of 88 confident picks landed — when the model gives a fighter 70%+ it has been right 73% of the time

14–26 betting record with the same amount on every recommended bet (-14.9 units — early days, small sample)

Bankroll curve $1000 per event · Conservative tier · opening odds −$859

2026-06-15 peak $160 · trough $-946 2026-09-19

UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 2026-09-19 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · +$11

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Dooho Choi wins	Patricio Pitbull vs Dooho Choi	1.39	$72	✗ lost −$72
Edmen Shahbazyan wins	Edmen Shahbazyan vs Brunno Ferreira	1.59	$63	✓ won +$37
Joshua Van wins	Alexandre Pantoja vs Joshua Van	1.85	$54	✓ won +$46

Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado 2026-09-12 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · −$95

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Jose Delgado wins	Jean Silva vs Jose Delgado	4.25	—	⋯ pending
Rafa Garcia wins	Rafa Garcia vs Rongzhu	2.53	$74	✗ lost −$74
Marwan Rahiki wins	Tommy McMillen vs Marwan Rahiki	2.37	$21	✗ lost −$21

UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse 2026-09-05 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · −$52

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Mario Pinto wins	Ryan Spann vs Mario Pinto	1.35	$80	✓ won +$28
Dan Hooker wins	Dan Hooker vs Salahdine Parnasse	5.75	$80	✗ lost −$80

UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song 2026-08-29 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · −$4

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Julia Polastri wins	Xiong Jingnan vs Julia Polastri	1.45	—	⋯ pending
Nilson Rojas wins	Bilal Hasan vs Nilson Rojas	5.50	$80	✗ lost −$80
Denise Gomes wins	Yan Xiaonan vs Denise Gomes	2.32	$57	✓ won +$76

UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues 2026-08-22 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · −$111

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Terrance Chatman wins	Anthony Wint vs Terrance Chatman	8.00	$80	✗ lost −$80
Ryan Kuse wins	Marcio Barbosa vs Ryan Kuse	7.00	$31	✗ lost −$31

UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry 2026-08-15 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · −$80

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Gillian Robertson wins	Mackenzie Dern vs Gillian Robertson	2.72	$80	✗ lost −$80

UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld 2026-08-08 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · −$75

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Louie Sutherland wins	Henrique Da Silva Lopes vs Louie Sutherland	1.63	—	⋯ pending
Guilherme Pat wins	Steven Asplund vs Guilherme Pat	3.02	$49	✗ lost −$49
Jessie Rosas wins	Miles Johns vs Jessie Rosas	2.33	—	⋯ pending
Amanda Lemos wins	Amanda Lemos vs Alexia Thainara	3.02	$27	✗ lost −$27

UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez 2026-08-01 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · −$56

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Mateusz Rebecki wins	Kyle Prepolec vs Mateusz Rebecki	1.18	$80	✓ won +$14
Oban Elliott wins	Oban Elliott vs Michael Oliveira	3.57	$80	✗ lost −$80
Bogdan Grad wins	Dennis Buzukja vs Bogdan Grad	1.52	$62	✓ won +$32
Fight goes to Decision	Daniel Rodriguez vs Uros Medic	7.25	$22	✗ lost −$22

UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov 2026-07-25 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · −$102

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Nurullo Aliev wins	Mike Davis vs Nurullo Aliev	1.54	$80	✓ won +$43
Tyrell Fortune wins	Rizvan Kuniev vs Tyrell Fortune	3.34	$80	✗ lost −$80
Damian Rzepecki wins	Magomed Zaynukov vs Damian Rzepecki	3.73	$43	✗ lost −$43
Dustin Jacoby wins	Dustin Jacoby vs Muhammad Said	1.59	$23	✗ lost −$23

UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman 2026-07-18 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · +$38

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Chase Hooper wins	Chase Hooper vs Mitch Ramirez	1.27	$80	✓ won +$22
Christian Leroy Duncan wins	Jared Cannonier vs Christian Leroy Duncan	1.32	$80	✓ won +$26
Dricus Du Plessis wins by SUB	Kamaru Usman vs Dricus Du Plessis	9.25	$55	✗ lost −$55
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani wins	Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs Seokhyeon Ko	2.66	$28	✓ won +$46

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 2026-07-11 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly · −$200

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Elisha Ellison wins	Gable Steveson vs Elisha Ellison	10.00	$138	✗ lost −$138
Benoit Saint Denis wins	Paddy Pimblett vs Benoit Saint Denis	1.53	$62	✗ lost −$62

UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres 2026-06-27 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly · −$216

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Manuel Torres wins	Rafael Fiziev vs Manuel Torres	1.96	$115	✗ lost −$115
Eric Nolan wins by Sub or Decision	Eric Nolan vs Farman Hasanov	5.30	$70	✗ lost −$70
Matheus Camilo wins	Nazim Sadykhov vs Matheus Camilo	2.99	$48	✓ won +$95
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	Julius Walker vs Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev	3.92	$44	✗ lost −$44
Fight reaches Round 2	Julius Walker vs Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev	2.17	$44	✗ lost −$44
Michel Pereira wins	Michel Pereira vs Shara Magomedov	3.82	$37	✗ lost −$37

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi 2 2026-06-20 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly · +$109

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Luana Santos wins	Karol Rosa vs Luana Santos	1.97	$157	✓ won +$152
Kyoji Horiguchi wins by KO/TKO	Kyoji Horiguchi vs Manel Kape	11.50	$43	✗ lost −$43

UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje 2026-06-15 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly · −$26

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Josh Hokit wins by KO or Decision	Derrick Lewis vs Josh Hokit	1.78	$73	✓ won +$57
Ilia Topuria wins by DEC	Justin Gaethje vs Ilia Topuria	13.00	$57	✗ lost −$57
Steve Garcia wins	Steve Garcia vs Diego Lopes	2.48	$52	✗ lost −$52
Bo Nickal wins by KO or Decision	Kyle Daukaus vs Bo Nickal	1.71	$38	✓ won +$27

9 / 16

Legs landed

56.2% of picks

2 / 9

Parlays won

every leg has to land

−$514

Profit

$100 on each

Only 9 parlays settled so far — far too few to judge the profit either way. On 93 past cards, parlays picked this way landed 61% of the time.

UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 2026-09-19 · −$100

2-leg @ 2.21 Dooho Choi wins @ 1.39Edmen Shahbazyan wins @ 1.59 ✗ LOST −$100

Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado 2026-09-12 · −$100

2-leg @ 3.35 Ends in Round 3+ / Decision @ 2.22Edgar Chairez wins @ 1.51 ✗ LOST −$100

UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse 2026-09-05 · +$107

2-leg @ 2.07 Mario Pinto wins @ 1.35Felipe Lima wins @ 1.53 ✓ WON +$107

UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song 2026-08-29 · −$100

2-leg @ 1.81 Julia Polastri wins @ 1.45Ends in Round 3+ / Decision @ 1.25 ✗ LOST −$100

UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues 2026-08-22 · −$100

2-leg @ 2.31 Fight reaches Round 2 @ 1.30Gauge Young wins @ 1.78 ✗ LOST −$100

UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez 2026-08-01 · +$79

2-leg @ 1.79 Mateusz Rebecki wins @ 1.18Bogdan Grad wins @ 1.52 ✓ WON +$79

UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov 2026-07-25 · −$100

2-leg @ 2.45 Dustin Jacoby wins @ 1.59Nurullo Aliev wins @ 1.54 ✗ LOST −$100

UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman 2026-07-18 · −$100

2-leg @ 2.24 Christian Leroy Duncan wins @ 1.32Alvin Hines wins @ 1.70 ✗ LOST −$100

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 2026-07-11 · −$100

2-leg @ 1.99 Damian Pinas wins @ 1.46Fight reaches Round 2 @ 1.36 ✗ LOST −$100

UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues 7/12 · 58%

2026-08-22

Anthony Hernandez

15-3-0

Winner

Gregory Rodrigues

Decision (U) · R5

✗ wrong

Gregory Rodrigues

19-6-0

▼

Model Prediction

Anthony Hernandez 69%

KO 25%· Sub 27%· Dec 17%

Gregory Rodrigues ✓ won 31%

KO 24%· Sub 2%· Dec 5%

Actual Fight Stats

	Anthony Hernandez	Gregory Rodrigues
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	90/159	174/283
Total strikes landed	111	243
Knockdowns	0	3
Takedowns (landed/att)	3/29	0/0
Submission attempts	0	0
Control time	10:40	2:40

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Anthony Hernandez wins	69%	1.36	missed
Finish round Finish in Round 2	31%	—	missed

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Anthony Hernandez wins	69%	1.36	✗ lost
Gregory Rodrigues wins	31%	2.90	✓ won

Serghei Spivac

18-6-0

Winner

Vitor Petrino

Decision (U) · R3

✓ predicted

Vitor Petrino

14-2-0

▼

Model Prediction

Serghei Spivac 39%

KO 11%· Sub 15%· Dec 13%

Vitor Petrino ✓ won 61%

KO 34%· Sub 5%· Dec 22%

Actual Fight Stats

	Serghei Spivac	Vitor Petrino
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	23/67	64/99
Total strikes landed	33	126
Knockdowns	0	0
Takedowns (landed/att)	0/2	4/6
Submission attempts	0	0
Control time	0:22	6:07

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Vitor Petrino wins	61%	1.67	✓ predicted
Method Vitor Petrino wins by KO/TKO	34%	3.05	missed
Finish round Finish in Round 1	33%	3.25	missed

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Finish before Round 2	33%	3.32	✗ lost
Vitor Petrino wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	29%	3.75	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 1	33%	3.25	✗ lost
Serghei Spivac wins by Submission in R1 or R2	13%	8.25	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	23%	4.60	✗ lost
Vitor Petrino wins by KO or Decision	56%	1.86	✓ won
Vitor Petrino wins by KO/TKO	34%	3.05	✗ lost
Vitor Petrino wins by KO/TKO in R1	18%	5.90	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	60%	1.72	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	45%	2.30	✗ lost
Serghei Spivac wins by Submission in R1	8%	13.00	✗ lost
Vitor Petrino wins	61%	1.67	✓ won
Vitor Petrino takedowns over 0.5	63%	1.62	✓ won
Fight ends before decision	64%	1.57	✗ lost
Vitor Petrino wins by KO/TKO in R2	11%	8.75	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	22%	4.60	✗ lost
Vitor Petrino wins by Decision	22%	4.50	✓ won
Serghei Spivac wins by SUB	15%	6.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	15%	6.50	✗ lost
Serghei Spivac wins by KO or Sub	26%	3.80	✗ lost
Vitor Petrino wins by KO or Sub	39%	2.50	✗ lost
Vitor Petrino wins by DEC	22%	4.30	✓ won
Vitor Petrino wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	16%	5.75	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	10%	9.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	20%	4.50	✗ lost
Serghei Spivac significant strikes over 29.5	52%	1.72	✗ lost
Serghei Spivac significant strikes over 19.5	65%	1.36	✓ won
Vitor Petrino wins by Sub or Decision	27%	3.30	✓ won
Serghei Spivac wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	9%	9.75	✗ lost
Serghei Spivac wins by Submission in R2	5%	17.00	✗ lost
Serghei Spivac wins by KO/TKO in R1	5%	16.00	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 2	67%	1.30	✓ won
Serghei Spivac wins	39%	2.22	✗ lost
Vitor Petrino significant strikes over 39.5	47%	1.83	✓ won
Vitor Petrino significant strikes over 29.5	58%	1.45	✓ won
Vitor Petrino significant strikes over 19.5	69%	1.22	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 49.5	60%	1.37	✓ won
Fight goes to decision	36%	2.30	✓ won
Serghei Spivac wins by KO/TKO	11%	7.75	✗ lost
Serghei Spivac wins by Sub or Decision	29%	2.85	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	7%	12.00	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	40%	2.00	✓ won
Fight goes to Decision	36%	2.25	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 59.5	52%	1.53	✓ won
Serghei Spivac wins by Submission in R2 or R3	7%	10.50	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 0.5	68%	1.09	✓ won
Serghei Spivac wins by KO or Decision	24%	3.05	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 69.5	41%	1.72	✓ won
Vitor Petrino significant strikes over 49.5	29%	2.37	✓ won
Serghei Spivac wins by KO/TKO in R2	4%	19.00	✗ lost
Vitor Petrino wins by KO/TKO in R3	5%	13.00	✗ lost
Serghei Spivac wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	5%	12.50	✗ lost
Serghei Spivac wins in R3+ or by Decision	18%	3.60	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	6%	9.50	✗ lost
Serghei Spivac wins by DEC	13%	4.60	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	9%	6.50	✗ lost
Vitor Petrino significant strikes over 59.5	19%	3.25	✓ won
Serghei Spivac takedowns over 0.5	48%	1.25	✗ lost
Total knockdowns over 0.5	38%	1.60	✗ lost
Serghei Spivac significant strikes over 49.5	18%	3.30	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 79.5	30%	1.97	✓ won
Serghei Spivac significant strikes over 59.5	12%	5.00	✗ lost
Serghei Spivac significant strikes over 39.5	24%	2.37	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 1.5	46%	1.21	✓ won
Vitor Petrino wins by Submission in R1 or R2	4%	13.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 89.5	23%	2.30	✗ lost
Vitor Petrino wins by SUB	5%	11.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 99.5	19%	2.70	✗ lost
Vitor Petrino wins by Submission in R2	2%	31.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 109.5	15%	3.25	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 2.5	35%	1.35	✓ won
Vitor Petrino wins by Submission in R1	2%	19.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	3%	16.00	✗ lost
Serghei Spivac wins by Submission in R3	2%	21.00	✗ lost
Vitor Petrino takedowns over 1.5	22%	2.10	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 119.5	12%	3.90	✗ lost
Vitor Petrino significant strikes over 69.5	10%	4.33	✗ lost
Serghei Spivac significant strikes over 69.5	5%	7.50	✗ lost
Serghei Spivac takedowns over 1.5	26%	1.53	✗ lost
Serghei Spivac wins by KO/TKO in R3	2%	26.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 129.5	8%	5.00	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 3.5	24%	1.56	✓ won
Vitor Petrino wins by Submission in R3	1%	46.00	✗ lost
Vitor Petrino takedowns over 2.5	11%	2.63	✓ won
Total takedowns over 4.5	13%	1.87	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 139.5	4%	6.00	✗ lost
Serghei Spivac takedowns over 2.5	13%	1.83	✗ lost
Total knockdowns over 1.5	2%	6.25	✗ lost
Vitor Petrino significant strikes over 79.5	2%	6.00	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 5.5	2%	2.18	✗ lost

Roman Dolidze

15-5-0

Winner

Reinier de Ridder

KO/TKO · R1

✓ predicted

Reinier de Ridder

21-4-0

▼

Model Prediction

Roman Dolidze 33%

KO 11%· Sub 4%· Dec 18%

Reinier de Ridder ✓ won 67%

KO 12%· Sub 28%· Dec 28%

Actual Fight Stats

	Roman Dolidze	Reinier de Ridder
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	1/4	71/83
Total strikes landed	4	106
Knockdowns	0	0
Takedowns (landed/att)	0/0	0/0
Submission attempts	0	0
Control time	0:00	3:41

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Reinier de Ridder wins	67%	1.24	✓ predicted
Method Reinier de Ridder wins by Decision	28%	2.35	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	46%	1.80	missed

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Roman Dolidze wins by DEC	18%	9.50	✗ lost
Roman Dolidze wins by Decision	18%	8.50	✗ lost
Roman Dolidze wins by Sub or Decision	22%	6.75	✗ lost
Roman Dolidze wins value	33%	4.10	✗ lost
Roman Dolidze wins by KO or Decision	28%	4.60	✗ lost
Roman Dolidze significant strikes over 59.5	14%	8.50	✗ lost
Roman Dolidze significant strikes over 29.5	58%	2.00	✗ lost
Roman Dolidze significant strikes over 39.5	36%	3.10	✗ lost
Roman Dolidze significant strikes over 19.5	75%	1.45	✗ lost
Roman Dolidze significant strikes over 49.5	21%	5.00	✗ lost
Finish before Round 2	27%	3.92	✓ won
Under 2.5 rounds	49%	2.10	✓ won
Reinier de Ridder wins by Submission in R1 or R2	22%	4.60	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	32%	3.15	✗ lost
Reinier de Ridder wins by SUB	28%	3.60	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 1	27%	3.75	✓ won
Reinier de Ridder wins by Submission in R1	14%	7.25	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	16%	6.25	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	54%	1.80	✓ won
Reinier de Ridder wins by KO or Sub	39%	2.45	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 49.5	65%	1.49	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 59.5	56%	1.69	✓ won
Reinier de Ridder wins by Submission in R2 or R3	14%	6.50	✗ lost
Total knockdowns over 0.5	38%	2.40	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 69.5	46%	1.96	✓ won
Fight reaches Round 2	73%	1.23	✗ lost
Reinier de Ridder significant strikes over 19.5	70%	1.28	✓ won
Reinier de Ridder significant strikes over 29.5	57%	1.57	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission in R2	10%	9.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	17%	5.30	✗ lost
Roman Dolidze wins by KO or Sub	15%	5.90	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	46%	1.93	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	46%	1.91	✗ lost
Reinier de Ridder wins by Submission in R2	9%	10.00	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	51%	1.66	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	22%	3.80	✓ won
Reinier de Ridder wins	67%	1.24	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	11%	7.75	✓ won
Roman Dolidze wins by KO/TKO in R1	5%	16.00	✗ lost
Reinier de Ridder wins by Sub or Decision	56%	1.47	✗ lost
Roman Dolidze wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	8%	9.75	✗ lost
Roman Dolidze wins by KO/TKO	11%	7.75	✗ lost
Roman Dolidze wins by Submission in R1 or R2	4%	23.00	✗ lost
Reinier de Ridder significant strikes over 39.5	40%	2.00	✓ won
Roman Dolidze wins by SUB	4%	18.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	7%	12.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	11%	7.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 79.5	33%	2.30	✗ lost
Roman Dolidze takedowns over 0.5	30%	2.50	✗ lost
Reinier de Ridder wins in R3+ or by Decision	38%	1.96	✗ lost
Reinier de Ridder wins by KO/TKO	12%	6.50	✓ won
Reinier de Ridder wins by Submission in R3	6%	13.00	✗ lost
Roman Dolidze wins by Submission in R1	2%	34.00	✗ lost
Reinier de Ridder wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	9%	8.00	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	7%	10.50	✗ lost
Reinier de Ridder wins by KO or Decision	40%	1.79	✓ won
Reinier de Ridder wins by KO/TKO in R1	6%	12.50	✓ won
Roman Dolidze wins by Submission in R2	1%	51.00	✗ lost
Roman Dolidze wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	5%	12.50	✗ lost
Roman Dolidze takedowns over 1.5	15%	4.50	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 89.5	23%	2.85	✗ lost
Reinier de Ridder wins by DEC	28%	2.35	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 99.5	19%	3.50	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 109.5	14%	4.60	✗ lost
Reinier de Ridder wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	6%	11.00	✗ lost
Roman Dolidze wins by Submission in R3	1%	71.00	✗ lost
Reinier de Ridder wins by KO/TKO in R2	4%	18.00	✗ lost
Reinier de Ridder significant strikes over 49.5	23%	2.75	✓ won
Roman Dolidze wins by KO/TKO in R2	3%	19.00	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 1.5	56%	1.09	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	4%	13.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 119.5	9%	6.00	✗ lost
Roman Dolidze wins by KO/TKO in R3	2%	26.00	✗ lost
Reinier de Ridder wins by KO/TKO in R3	2%	23.00	✗ lost
Reinier de Ridder significant strikes over 59.5	14%	3.75	✓ won
Reinier de Ridder takedowns over 1.5	45%	1.14	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 2.5	38%	1.22	✗ lost
Reinier de Ridder takedowns over 2.5	33%	1.33	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 129.5	5%	8.00	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 3.5	23%	1.40	✗ lost
Roman Dolidze takedowns over 2.5	4%	7.50	✗ lost
Reinier de Ridder significant strikes over 69.5	5%	5.50	✓ won
Total takedowns over 4.5	16%	1.71	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 5.5	10%	1.97	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 6.5	3%	2.30	✗ lost
Reinier de Ridder takedowns over 3.5	1%	1.53	✗ lost

Mason Jones

18-2-0

Winner

MarQuel Mederos

KO/TKO · R2

✗ wrong

MarQuel Mederos

11-1-1

▼

Model Prediction

Mason Jones 73%

KO 32%· Sub 6%· Dec 35%

MarQuel Mederos ✓ won 27%

KO 10%· Sub 2%· Dec 15%

Actual Fight Stats

	Mason Jones	MarQuel Mederos
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	77/151	73/106
Total strikes landed	84	82
Knockdowns	0	1
Takedowns (landed/att)	1/1	0/4
Submission attempts	0	0
Control time	0:30	0:54

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Mason Jones wins	73%	1.22	missed
Method Mason Jones wins by Decision	35%	2.75	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	50%	2.15	missed

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
MarQuel Mederos wins by DEC	15%	8.50	✗ lost
MarQuel Mederos wins by SUB	2%	51.00	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	50%	2.15	✗ lost
MarQuel Mederos wins	27%	3.85	✓ won
Mason Jones wins by DEC	35%	2.75	✗ lost
Mason Jones wins	73%	1.22	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	50%	1.62	✓ won
Mason Jones wins by KO/TKO	32%	2.45	✗ lost
MarQuel Mederos wins by KO/TKO	10%	6.75	✓ won
Mason Jones wins by SUB	6%	10.00	✗ lost

Carli Judice

6-2-0

Winner

Carli Judice

KO/TKO · R1

✓ predicted

Jeisla Chaves

1-0-0

▼

Model Prediction

Carli Judice ✓ won 68%

KO 21%· Sub 3%· Dec 45%

Jeisla Chaves 32%

KO 7%· Sub 2%· Dec 22%

Actual Fight Stats

	Carli Judice	Jeisla Chaves
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	16/35	10/28
Total strikes landed	16	10
Knockdowns	1	0
Takedowns (landed/att)	0/0	0/0
Submission attempts	0	0
Control time	0:02	0:00

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Carli Judice wins	68%	1.16	✓ predicted
Method Carli Judice wins by Decision	45%	2.35	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	67%	1.87	missed

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Jeisla Chaves wins by DEC value	22%	8.25	✗ lost
Jeisla Chaves wins in R3+ or by Decision value	23%	7.25	✗ lost
Jeisla Chaves wins value	32%	5.30	✗ lost
Jeisla Chaves wins by Sub or Decision value	24%	6.75	✗ lost
Jeisla Chaves wins by KO or Decision value	29%	5.60	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	67%	1.87	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	67%	1.85	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	70%	1.66	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 3	74%	1.52	✗ lost
Carli Judice wins by Decision	45%	2.37	✗ lost
Carli Judice wins by DEC	45%	2.35	✗ lost
Jeisla Chaves takedowns over 0.5	65%	1.62	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 0.5	80%	1.29	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 1.5	58%	1.69	✗ lost
Carli Judice wins by Sub or Decision	48%	2.03	✗ lost
Jeisla Chaves takedowns over 1.5	45%	2.10	✗ lost
Jeisla Chaves wins by KO or Sub	10%	9.75	✗ lost
Jeisla Chaves wins by KO/TKO	7%	13.00	✗ lost
Jeisla Chaves wins by KO/TKO in R1	4%	26.00	✗ lost
Jeisla Chaves wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	6%	16.00	✗ lost
Jeisla Chaves significant strikes over 19.5	79%	1.12	✗ lost
Jeisla Chaves significant strikes over 29.5	69%	1.25	✗ lost
Carli Judice significant strikes over 19.5	81%	1.06	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 49.5	77%	1.11	✗ lost
Jeisla Chaves significant strikes over 39.5	58%	1.45	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 59.5	71%	1.15	✗ lost
Jeisla Chaves wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	4%	23.00	✗ lost
Carli Judice wins by KO or Decision	66%	1.24	✓ won
Carli Judice significant strikes over 29.5	72%	1.11	✗ lost
Carli Judice wins	68%	1.16	✓ won
Jeisla Chaves significant strikes over 49.5	46%	1.72	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 69.5	66%	1.19	✗ lost
Carli Judice takedowns over 0.5	33%	2.30	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 2.5	35%	2.15	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 79.5	60%	1.24	✗ lost
Carli Judice significant strikes over 39.5	63%	1.17	✗ lost
Jeisla Chaves wins by KO/TKO in R2	2%	34.00	✗ lost
Jeisla Chaves wins by KO/TKO in R3	1%	51.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 89.5	54%	1.30	✗ lost
Finish before Round 2	16%	4.25	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	14%	4.90	✓ won
Carli Judice significant strikes over 49.5	53%	1.28	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 1	16%	4.10	✓ won
Jeisla Chaves wins by Submission in R1 or R2	2%	34.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 99.5	47%	1.37	✗ lost
Jeisla Chaves wins by SUB	2%	26.00	✗ lost
Jeisla Chaves wins by Submission in R1	1%	51.00	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	30%	2.10	✓ won
Jeisla Chaves takedowns over 2.5	22%	2.75	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	28%	2.20	✓ won
Fight ends before decision	33%	1.86	✓ won
Total knockdowns over 0.5	38%	1.61	✓ won
Jeisla Chaves wins by Submission in R2	1%	81.00	✗ lost
Carli Judice significant strikes over 59.5	42%	1.40	✗ lost
Carli Judice wins by KO/TKO in R1	10%	5.60	✓ won
Total takedowns over 3.5	20%	2.75	✗ lost
Carli Judice wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	17%	3.25	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 109.5	36%	1.46	✗ lost
Carli Judice wins by KO/TKO	21%	2.50	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	10%	5.20	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	8%	6.00	✗ lost
Carli Judice wins by KO or Sub	23%	2.15	✓ won
Jeisla Chaves significant strikes over 59.5	24%	2.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	5%	9.25	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	6%	8.25	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	3%	18.00	✗ lost
Carli Judice significant strikes over 69.5	30%	1.53	✗ lost
Carli Judice wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	10%	4.30	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 4.5	12%	3.60	✗ lost
Carli Judice takedowns over 1.5	10%	4.50	✗ lost
Carli Judice wins by KO/TKO in R2	6%	6.75	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 119.5	26%	1.54	✗ lost
Carli Judice wins by KO/TKO in R3	4%	9.25	✗ lost
Jeisla Chaves significant strikes over 69.5	15%	2.50	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 129.5	22%	1.66	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	2%	23.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 139.5	18%	1.79	✗ lost
Carli Judice wins by Submission in R1 or R2	2%	15.00	✗ lost
Carli Judice significant strikes over 79.5	18%	1.72	✗ lost
Carli Judice wins by SUB	3%	12.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	1%	31.00	✗ lost
Carli Judice wins by Submission in R1	1%	23.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 149.5	14%	1.95	✗ lost
Carli Judice wins by Submission in R2 or R3	1%	19.00	✗ lost
Carli Judice wins by Submission in R2	1%	31.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 159.5	10%	2.15	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 5.5	4%	4.80	✗ lost
Jeisla Chaves significant strikes over 79.5	6%	3.20	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 169.5	7%	2.35	✗ lost
Carli Judice significant strikes over 89.5	7%	2.00	✗ lost
Total knockdowns over 1.5	2%	5.60	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 179.5	3%	2.65	✗ lost
Jeisla Chaves takedowns over 3.5	1%	3.60	✗ lost

Anthony Wint

7-0-0

Winner

Anthony Wint

SUB · R1

Terrance Chatman

0-0-0

▼

Model Prediction dead even — no pick

Anthony Wint ✓ won 50%

KO 20%· Sub 16%· Dec 14%

Terrance Chatman 50%

KO 18%· Sub 13%· Dec 19%

Actual Fight Stats

	Anthony Wint	Terrance Chatman
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	5/9	1/4
Total strikes landed	46	2
Knockdowns	0	0
Takedowns (landed/att)	1/3	0/0
Submission attempts	1	1
Control time	2:42	0:02

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Anthony Wint wins	50%	1.10	✓ predicted
Method Anthony Wint wins by KO/TKO	20%	1.31	missed
Finish round Finish in Round 1	41%	—	✓ predicted

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Terrance Chatman wins by Submission in R1	8%	81.00	✗ lost
Terrance Chatman wins by SUB value	13%	46.00	✗ lost
Terrance Chatman wins by Submission in R1 or R2 value	12%	51.00	✗ lost
Terrance Chatman wins by Submission in R2	3%	151.00	✗ lost
Terrance Chatman wins by Sub or Decision value	32%	15.00	✗ lost
Terrance Chatman wins by DEC value	19%	19.00	✗ lost
Terrance Chatman wins value	50%	7.00	✗ lost
Terrance Chatman wins by KO or Sub value	31%	9.75	✗ lost
Terrance Chatman wins in R3+ or by Decision value	21%	14.00	✗ lost
Terrance Chatman wins by KO or Decision value	36%	8.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	4%	71.00	✗ lost
Terrance Chatman wins by Submission in R3	2%	151.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	7%	34.00	✗ lost
Terrance Chatman wins by finish in Round 1 value	19%	12.00	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	33%	7.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission value	30%	7.75	✓ won
Anthony Wint wins by Submission in R3	2%	101.00	✗ lost
Terrance Chatman wins by finish in Round 1 value	19%	11.50	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	33%	6.50	✗ lost
Anthony Wint wins by Submission in R2 or R3	6%	34.00	✗ lost
Terrance Chatman wins by KO/TKO in R1	11%	19.00	✗ lost
Terrance Chatman wins by KO/TKO value	18%	11.50	✗ lost
Terrance Chatman wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	15%	13.00	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 3	42%	4.65	✗ lost
Anthony Wint wins by Submission in R2	4%	46.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	18%	10.00	✓ won
Under 2.5 rounds	62%	2.75	✓ won
Terrance Chatman takedowns over 1.5	22%	7.50	✗ lost
Anthony Wint wins by Sub or Decision value	30%	5.30	✓ won
Anthony Wint wins by DEC	14%	11.00	✗ lost
Terrance Chatman wins by KO/TKO in R2	4%	34.00	✗ lost
Anthony Wint wins in R3+ or by Decision	21%	7.00	✗ lost
Terrance Chatman significant strikes over 29.5	39%	3.75	✗ lost
Terrance Chatman wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	7%	21.00	✗ lost
Terrance Chatman significant strikes over 49.5	19%	7.50	✗ lost
Anthony Wint wins by SUB	16%	8.75	✓ won
Terrance Chatman significant strikes over 39.5	26%	5.50	✗ lost
Terrance Chatman wins by finish in Round 2	8%	17.00	✗ lost
Anthony Wint wins by Submission in R1 or R2	14%	9.25	✓ won
Terrance Chatman significant strikes over 59.5	13%	10.00	✗ lost
Terrance Chatman takedowns over 0.5	41%	3.10	✗ lost
Terrance Chatman significant strikes over 19.5	53%	2.40	✗ lost
Terrance Chatman wins by KO/TKO in R3	2%	51.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 109.5	18%	6.75	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 99.5	21%	5.75	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 119.5	15%	8.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 79.5	28%	4.10	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 89.5	24%	4.80	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 69.5	33%	3.40	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 129.5	12%	9.25	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 59.5	38%	2.85	✗ lost
Anthony Wint wins by Submission in R1	10%	10.50	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 139.5	9%	11.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 49.5	43%	2.30	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 0.5	65%	1.47	✓ won
Total takedowns over 1.5	45%	1.98	✗ lost
Anthony Wint significant strikes over 29.5	38%	2.25	✗ lost
Anthony Wint significant strikes over 19.5	52%	1.57	✗ lost
Anthony Wint significant strikes over 49.5	18%	4.33	✗ lost
Anthony Wint significant strikes over 39.5	25%	3.20	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	67%	1.09	✓ won
Finish before Round 3	58%	1.17	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	5%	13.00	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 2.5	26%	2.60	✗ lost
Anthony Wint takedowns over 0.5	40%	1.67	✓ won
Total takedowns over 4.5	11%	5.80	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 3.5	18%	3.60	✗ lost
Anthony Wint significant strikes over 59.5	12%	5.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	9%	6.50	✗ lost
Anthony Wint wins	50%	1.10	✓ won
Over 2.5 rounds	38%	1.40	✗ lost
Anthony Wint takedowns over 1.5	21%	2.30	✗ lost
Anthony Wint wins by KO/TKO in R3	3%	17.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	38%	1.19	✗ lost
Anthony Wint wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	8%	5.75	✗ lost
Anthony Wint significant strikes over 69.5	6%	7.50	✗ lost
Anthony Wint wins by KO or Sub	36%	1.16	✓ won
Anthony Wint wins by KO or Decision	34%	1.19	✗ lost
Total knockdowns over 0.5	38%	1.07	✗ lost
Anthony Wint wins by KO/TKO in R2	5%	7.75	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	23%	1.56	✗ lost
Anthony Wint takedowns over 2.5	11%	3.10	✗ lost
Anthony Wint wins by finish in Round 1	22%	1.23	✓ won
Anthony Wint wins by KO/TKO	20%	1.31	✗ lost
Anthony Wint wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	17%	1.39	✗ lost
Anthony Wint wins by KO/TKO in R1	12%	1.65	✗ lost
Total knockdowns over 1.5	2%	4.80	✗ lost
Anthony Wint takedowns over 3.5	1%	4.50	✗ lost

Jamall Emmers

22-8-0

Winner

Jamall Emmers

KO/TKO · R1

✗ wrong

Lerryan Douglas

14-5-0

▼

Model Prediction

Jamall Emmers ✓ won 31%

KO 5%· Sub 3%· Dec 23%

Lerryan Douglas 69%

KO 25%· Sub 4%· Dec 40%

Actual Fight Stats

	Jamall Emmers	Lerryan Douglas
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	17/29	14/27
Total strikes landed	17	14
Knockdowns	1	0
Takedowns (landed/att)	0/0	0/0
Submission attempts	0	0
Control time	0:02	0:00

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Lerryan Douglas wins	69%	1.23	missed
Method Lerryan Douglas wins by Decision value	40%	6.75	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	63%	3.70	missed

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Lerryan Douglas wins by DEC value	40%	6.75	✗ lost
Lerryan Douglas wins in R3+ or by Decision value	49%	5.00	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	63%	3.80	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	63%	3.70	✗ lost
Lerryan Douglas wins by Sub or Decision value	44%	5.10	✗ lost
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	71%	3.07	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 3	71%	2.80	✗ lost
Jamall Emmers wins by DEC value	23%	8.50	✗ lost
Jamall Emmers wins by Decision value	23%	8.00	✗ lost
Jamall Emmers wins by Sub or Decision value	26%	6.50	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	67%	2.10	✗ lost
Jamall Emmers wins value	31%	4.20	✓ won
Jamall Emmers wins by KO or Decision	28%	4.60	✓ won
Lerryan Douglas wins by Submission in R3	1%	151.00	✗ lost
Lerryan Douglas wins by KO or Decision	66%	1.30	✗ lost
Lerryan Douglas wins	69%	1.23	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	1%	61.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	7%	10.50	✗ lost
Lerryan Douglas wins by KO/TKO in R3	5%	15.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	6%	12.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	7%	9.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	2%	31.00	✗ lost
Jamall Emmers wins by SUB	3%	19.00	✗ lost
Lerryan Douglas wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	12%	4.60	✗ lost
Jamall Emmers wins by Submission in R1 or R2	2%	23.00	✗ lost
Jamall Emmers wins by Submission in R3	1%	91.00	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	33%	1.66	✓ won
Jamall Emmers wins by Submission in R2	1%	61.00	✗ lost
Lerryan Douglas wins by SUB	4%	15.00	✗ lost
Lerryan Douglas wins by Submission in R2	1%	51.00	✗ lost
Jamall Emmers wins by Submission in R1	2%	34.00	✗ lost
Jamall Emmers wins by Submission in R2 or R3	2%	34.00	✗ lost
Jamall Emmers wins by KO or Sub	8%	6.25	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	11%	4.60	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	3%	14.00	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	37%	1.25	✓ won
Lerryan Douglas wins by Submission in R1 or R2	3%	16.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	9%	5.10	✗ lost
Lerryan Douglas wins by KO/TKO in R2	7%	6.00	✗ lost
Lerryan Douglas wins by KO or Sub	29%	1.46	✗ lost
Jamall Emmers wins by KO/TKO	5%	8.25	✓ won
Finish before Round 3	29%	1.40	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO	30%	1.35	✓ won
Jamall Emmers wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	4%	10.00	✓ won
Jamall Emmers wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	2%	16.00	✗ lost
Lerryan Douglas wins by KO/TKO	25%	1.57	✗ lost
Ends in Round 1 or 2	29%	1.34	✓ won
Jamall Emmers wins by finish in Round 1	4%	9.50	✓ won
Lerryan Douglas wins by Submission in R1	2%	21.00	✗ lost
Jamall Emmers wins by KO/TKO in R1	3%	14.00	✓ won
Jamall Emmers wins by KO/TKO in R3	1%	34.00	✗ lost
Lerryan Douglas wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	20%	1.70	✗ lost
Jamall Emmers wins by KO/TKO in R2	1%	23.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	15%	2.03	✓ won
Jamall Emmers wins by finish in Round 1	4%	7.50	✓ won
Lerryan Douglas wins by finish in Round 1	15%	2.10	✗ lost
Lerryan Douglas wins by KO/TKO in R1	13%	2.25	✗ lost
Lerryan Douglas wins by finish in Round 1	15%	1.58	✗ lost

Kennedy Nzechukwu

14-6-1

Winner

Shamil Gaziev

KO/TKO · R1

✗ wrong

Shamil Gaziev

14-3-0

▼

Model Prediction

Kennedy Nzechukwu 73%

KO 55%· Sub 2%· Dec 16%

Shamil Gaziev ✓ won 27%

KO 14%· Sub 6%· Dec 7%

Actual Fight Stats

	Kennedy Nzechukwu	Shamil Gaziev
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	3/7	2/5
Total strikes landed	3	2
Knockdowns	0	1
Takedowns (landed/att)	0/0	0/0
Submission attempts	0	0
Control time	0:00	0:00

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Kennedy Nzechukwu wins value	73%	2.08	missed
Method Kennedy Nzechukwu wins by KO/TKO value	55%	3.10	missed
Finish round Finish in Round 1	47%	—	✓ predicted

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Kennedy Nzechukwu wins by KO/TKO in R1 value	34%	6.25	✗ lost
Kennedy Nzechukwu wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2 value	50%	4.10	✗ lost
Kennedy Nzechukwu wins by finish in Round 1 value	35%	5.50	✗ lost
Kennedy Nzechukwu wins by KO/TKO value	55%	3.10	✗ lost
Kennedy Nzechukwu wins by KO or Decision value	71%	2.30	✗ lost
Kennedy Nzechukwu wins by KO/TKO in R2	16%	9.50	✗ lost
Kennedy Nzechukwu wins value	73%	2.08	✗ lost
Kennedy Nzechukwu wins by KO or Sub value	57%	2.60	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	74%	1.83	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	43%	3.15	✓ won
Finish before Round 2	47%	2.81	✓ won
Kennedy Nzechukwu wins by finish in Round 2	17%	7.50	✗ lost
Kennedy Nzechukwu wins by DEC	16%	7.75	✗ lost
Kennedy Nzechukwu wins by finish in Round 1	35%	3.45	✗ lost
Kennedy Nzechukwu wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	21%	5.40	✗ lost
Shamil Gaziev wins by Submission in R1	4%	31.00	✗ lost
Kennedy Nzechukwu wins by Decision	16%	7.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	69%	1.46	✓ won
Shamil Gaziev wins by Submission in R1 or R2	5%	19.00	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	77%	1.28	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	21%	4.70	✗ lost
Kennedy Nzechukwu wins by Sub or Decision	18%	5.25	✗ lost
Shamil Gaziev wins by SUB	6%	15.00	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	23%	3.50	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	23%	3.45	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 2	53%	1.40	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	5%	15.00	✗ lost
Shamil Gaziev wins by Submission in R2	2%	41.00	✗ lost
Shamil Gaziev wins by Sub or Decision	13%	4.70	✗ lost
Shamil Gaziev wins by finish in Round 1	12%	5.00	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission	8%	7.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	2%	21.00	✗ lost
Shamil Gaziev wins by KO/TKO in R1	9%	5.60	✓ won
Kennedy Nzechukwu wins by KO/TKO in R3	5%	10.00	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	26%	1.83	✗ lost
Shamil Gaziev wins	27%	1.78	✓ won
Shamil Gaziev wins by KO or Sub	20%	2.30	✓ won
Shamil Gaziev wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	13%	3.50	✓ won
Shamil Gaziev wins by DEC	7%	6.00	✗ lost
Shamil Gaziev wins by KO or Decision	21%	1.90	✓ won
Shamil Gaziev wins by finish in Round 2	6%	6.50	✗ lost
Shamil Gaziev wins by finish in Round 1	12%	3.10	✓ won
Shamil Gaziev wins by KO/TKO	14%	2.60	✓ won
Shamil Gaziev wins by KO/TKO in R2	4%	7.75	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	6%	5.30	✗ lost
Kennedy Nzechukwu wins by Submission in R1 or R2	2%	16.00	✗ lost
Shamil Gaziev wins in R3+ or by Decision	8%	3.70	✗ lost
Kennedy Nzechukwu wins by Submission in R1	1%	23.00	✗ lost
Kennedy Nzechukwu wins by SUB	2%	12.50	✗ lost
Shamil Gaziev wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	5%	4.50	✗ lost
Kennedy Nzechukwu wins by Submission in R2	1%	34.00	✗ lost
Kennedy Nzechukwu wins by Submission in R2 or R3	1%	21.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	1%	23.00	✗ lost
Shamil Gaziev wins by KO/TKO in R3	1%	9.00	✗ lost

Chris Padilla

17-6-1

Winner

Chris Padilla

SUB · R3

✓ predicted

Nasrat Haqparast

18-6-0

▼

Model Prediction

Chris Padilla ✓ won 56%

KO 15%· Sub 7%· Dec 34%

Nasrat Haqparast 44%

KO 18%· Sub 2%· Dec 25%

Actual Fight Stats

	Chris Padilla	Nasrat Haqparast
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	125/227	71/168
Total strikes landed	125	73
Knockdowns	1	0
Takedowns (landed/att)	1/3	0/2
Submission attempts	1	0
Control time	0:45	0:00

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Chris Padilla wins	56%	1.45	✓ predicted
Method Chris Padilla wins by Decision	34%	1.90	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	59%	3.45	missed

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Chris Padilla wins by SUB	7%	34.00	✓ won
Nasrat Haqparast wins by SUB	2%	91.00	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	41%	3.45	✓ won
Nasrat Haqparast wins by KO/TKO	18%	7.50	✗ lost
Nasrat Haqparast wins value	44%	2.55	✗ lost
Chris Padilla wins by KO/TKO	15%	6.25	✗ lost
Nasrat Haqparast wins by DEC	25%	3.60	✗ lost
Chris Padilla wins	56%	1.45	✓ won
Fight goes to decision	59%	1.27	✗ lost
Chris Padilla wins by DEC	34%	1.90	✗ lost

Marcio Barbosa

17-2-0

Winner

Marcio Barbosa

KO/TKO · R1

✓ predicted

Ryan Kuse

0-0-0

▼

Model Prediction

Marcio Barbosa ✓ won 60%

KO 24%· Sub 10%· Dec 26%

Ryan Kuse 40%

KO 10%· Sub 10%· Dec 20%

Actual Fight Stats

	Marcio Barbosa	Ryan Kuse
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	11/25	5/21
Total strikes landed	11	5
Knockdowns	1	0
Takedowns (landed/att)	0/0	0/5
Submission attempts	0	0
Control time	0:12	0:00

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Ryan Kuse wins value	40%	7.75	missed
Method Ryan Kuse wins by Decision value	20%	251.00	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	46%	8.25	missed

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Ryan Kuse wins by DEC value	20%	251.00	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	46%	8.25	✗ lost
Ryan Kuse wins value	40%	7.75	✗ lost
Ryan Kuse wins by SUB	10%	31.00	✗ lost
Marcio Barbosa wins by DEC value	26%	8.75	✗ lost
Marcio Barbosa wins by SUB	10%	15.00	✗ lost
Ryan Kuse wins by KO/TKO	10%	9.50	✗ lost
Marcio Barbosa wins by KO/TKO	24%	1.21	✓ won

Gauge Young

11-3-0

Winner

Stan Dorsainvil

Decision (U) · R3

✗ wrong

Stan Dorsainvil

0-0-0

▼

Model Prediction

Gauge Young 68%

KO 22%· Sub 11%· Dec 36%

Stan Dorsainvil ✓ won 32%

KO 9%· Sub 6%· Dec 17%

Actual Fight Stats

	Gauge Young	Stan Dorsainvil
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	137/253	123/298
Total strikes landed	153	133
Knockdowns	0	0
Takedowns (landed/att)	3/9	2/7
Submission attempts	0	0
Control time	2:39	1:29

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Gauge Young wins	68%	1.50	missed
Method Gauge Young wins by Decision	36%	2.55	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	53%	2.21	✓ predicted

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Gauge Young wins by Submission in R1 or R2	9%	26.00	✗ lost
Gauge Young wins by SUB	11%	21.00	✗ lost
Gauge Young wins by Submission in R2	3%	61.00	✗ lost
Gauge Young wins by Submission in R1	6%	34.00	✗ lost
Gauge Young wins by Submission in R2 or R3	5%	34.00	✗ lost
Gauge Young wins by Submission in R3	2%	81.00	✗ lost
Stan Dorsainvil wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	7%	16.00	✗ lost
Stan Dorsainvil wins by KO/TKO	9%	13.00	✗ lost
Finish before Round 3	40%	2.80	✗ lost
Gauge Young wins by Sub or Decision	46%	2.35	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	43%	2.50	✗ lost
Gauge Young wins by KO or Sub	33%	3.30	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	16%	6.50	✗ lost
Stan Dorsainvil wins by KO/TKO in R1	5%	23.00	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	47%	2.21	✗ lost
Gauge Young wins	68%	1.50	✗ lost
Gauge Young wins by finish in Round 1	17%	6.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	9%	11.50	✗ lost
Stan Dorsainvil wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	4%	23.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	16%	5.90	✗ lost
Gauge Young wins by Decision	36%	2.62	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	5%	18.00	✗ lost
Stan Dorsainvil wins by KO/TKO in R2	3%	34.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	31%	3.05	✗ lost
Gauge Young wins by DEC	36%	2.55	✗ lost
Gauge Young wins by KO or Decision	58%	1.57	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 2	75%	1.20	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	10%	9.25	✗ lost
Gauge Young wins by finish in Round 2	10%	8.50	✗ lost
Gauge Young wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	18%	4.70	✗ lost
Stan Dorsainvil wins by KO or Decision	26%	3.35	✓ won
Fight goes to decision	53%	1.62	✓ won
Fight goes to Decision	53%	1.61	✓ won
Over 2.5 rounds	57%	1.50	✓ won
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	60%	1.40	✓ won
Stan Dorsainvil wins by KO or Sub	15%	5.70	✗ lost
Gauge Young wins by KO/TKO	22%	3.75	✗ lost
Stan Dorsainvil wins	32%	2.58	✓ won
Gauge Young wins by KO/TKO in R1	12%	7.00	✗ lost
Gauge Young wins by KO/TKO in R2	7%	11.00	✗ lost
Gauge Young wins by finish in Round 1	17%	4.25	✗ lost
Stan Dorsainvil wins by finish in Round 1	8%	9.50	✗ lost
Stan Dorsainvil wins in R3+ or by Decision	19%	3.70	✓ won
Gauge Young wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	10%	6.75	✗ lost
Stan Dorsainvil wins by KO/TKO in R3	1%	51.00	✗ lost
Gauge Young wins by finish in Round 1	17%	4.10	✗ lost
Stan Dorsainvil wins by DEC	17%	4.10	✓ won
Gauge Young wins by finish in Round 2	10%	6.75	✗ lost
Stan Dorsainvil wins by Sub or Decision	23%	2.95	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission in R3	3%	26.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	5%	12.00	✗ lost
Stan Dorsainvil wins by finish in Round 2	5%	12.00	✗ lost
Stan Dorsainvil wins by finish in Round 1	8%	7.00	✗ lost
Stan Dorsainvil wins by SUB	6%	8.50	✗ lost
Stan Dorsainvil wins by Submission in R1 or R2	5%	10.00	✗ lost
Gauge Young wins by KO/TKO in R3	3%	14.00	✗ lost
Gauge Young wins by finish in Round 3	5%	9.00	✗ lost
Stan Dorsainvil wins by Submission in R1	3%	15.00	✗ lost
Stan Dorsainvil wins by Submission in R2	2%	23.00	✗ lost
Stan Dorsainvil wins by Submission in R3	1%	34.00	✗ lost

Wes Schultz

9-3-0

Winner

Jackson McVey

KO/TKO · R1

✓ predicted

Jackson McVey

7-2-0

▼

Model Prediction

Wes Schultz 37%

KO 2%· Sub 29%· Dec 7%

Jackson McVey ✓ won 63%

KO 13%· Sub 32%· Dec 18%

Actual Fight Stats

	Wes Schultz	Jackson McVey
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	24/43	38/78
Total strikes landed	28	40
Knockdowns	0	1
Takedowns (landed/att)	1/1	0/0
Submission attempts	1	0
Control time	1:05	0:14

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Jackson McVey wins	63%	1.57	✓ predicted
Method Jackson McVey wins by Submission value	32%	5.60	missed
Finish round Finish in Round 1	46%	—	✓ predicted

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Jackson McVey wins by Submission in R2	10%	19.00	✗ lost
Jackson McVey wins by SUB value	32%	5.60	✗ lost
Jackson McVey wins by Submission in R1 or R2 value	29%	6.00	✗ lost
Jackson McVey wins by Sub or Decision value	50%	3.20	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	18%	8.50	✗ lost
Jackson McVey wins by Submission in R3	3%	51.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission value	60%	2.40	✗ lost
Jackson McVey wins by Submission in R1	19%	7.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	37%	3.60	✗ lost
Jackson McVey wins by DEC	18%	6.50	✗ lost
Wes Schultz wins by Submission in R1 or R2	26%	4.40	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	25%	4.60	✗ lost
Wes Schultz wins by SUB	29%	3.90	✗ lost
Wes Schultz wins by Sub or Decision	35%	3.10	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 2	54%	2.00	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	25%	4.40	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	72%	1.50	✓ won
Jackson McVey wins by Decision	18%	6.00	✗ lost
Wes Schultz wins by Submission in R2	9%	12.00	✗ lost
Wes Schultz wins by Submission in R1	17%	6.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	23%	4.50	✗ lost
Wes Schultz wins by Submission in R2 or R3	11%	9.00	✗ lost
Jackson McVey wins	63%	1.57	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission in R3	5%	18.00	✗ lost
Wes Schultz wins in R3+ or by Decision	12%	8.00	✗ lost
Wes Schultz wins	37%	2.42	✗ lost
Finish before Round 3	69%	1.30	✓ won
Fight ends before decision	75%	1.17	✓ won
Jackson McVey wins by KO or Sub	45%	1.94	✓ won
Wes Schultz wins by KO or Sub	30%	2.80	✗ lost
Wes Schultz wins by finish in Round 1	18%	4.50	✗ lost
Wes Schultz wins by DEC	7%	12.00	✗ lost
Jackson McVey wins by finish in Round 1	27%	2.75	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	7%	10.50	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	28%	2.50	✗ lost
Wes Schultz wins by Submission in R3	3%	26.00	✗ lost
Jackson McVey wins by KO or Decision	31%	2.05	✓ won
Wes Schultz wins by finish in Round 1	18%	3.15	✗ lost
Jackson McVey wins by finish in Round 1	27%	2.10	✓ won
Wes Schultz wins by KO or Decision	9%	5.40	✗ lost
Jackson McVey wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	5%	8.25	✗ lost
Jackson McVey wins by KO/TKO in R2	4%	10.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	5%	8.25	✗ lost
Jackson McVey wins by KO/TKO	13%	2.80	✓ won
Jackson McVey wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	12%	3.05	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO	15%	2.18	✓ won
Jackson McVey wins by KO/TKO in R1	8%	3.90	✓ won
Jackson McVey wins by KO/TKO in R3	1%	26.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	9%	3.15	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	1%	19.00	✗ lost
Wes Schultz wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	2%	9.25	✗ lost
Wes Schultz wins by KO/TKO	2%	8.25	✗ lost
Wes Schultz wins by KO/TKO in R1	1%	12.50	✗ lost
Wes Schultz wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	1%	19.00	✗ lost

Elise Reed

8-5-0

Winner

Shanelle Dyer

KO/TKO · R3

✓ predicted

Shanelle Dyer

7-1-0

▼

Model Prediction

Elise Reed 20%

KO 8%· Sub 3%· Dec 9%

Shanelle Dyer ✓ won 80%

KO 31%· Sub 14%· Dec 35%

Actual Fight Stats

	Elise Reed	Shanelle Dyer
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	49/104	136/217
Total strikes landed	59	139
Knockdowns	0	0
Takedowns (landed/att)	0/0	1/1
Submission attempts	0	0
Control time	0:18	1:24

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Elise Reed wins value	20%	10.00	missed
Method Elise Reed wins by Decision	9%	16.00	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	44%	2.95	missed

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Elise Reed wins value	20%	10.00	✗ lost
Elise Reed wins by KO/TKO	8%	23.00	✗ lost
Elise Reed wins by DEC	9%	16.00	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	44%	2.95	✗ lost
Shanelle Dyer wins by SUB	14%	8.00	✗ lost
Shanelle Dyer wins by DEC	35%	3.00	✗ lost
Elise Reed wins by SUB	3%	34.00	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	56%	1.35	✓ won
Shanelle Dyer wins by KO/TKO	31%	1.78	✓ won