Updated 2026-08-16 15:18 AEST
10
Bouts
0
Events
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Win probability
Our model's estimate that a fighter wins — e.g. 72% means we'd expect them to win roughly 7 of 10 times.
Confidence interval (CI)
The range the true probability likely falls in. Wider = less certain. A pick'em fight has a wide band; a clear favourite a narrow one.
Edge
How much higher our probability is than the bookmaker's implied odds. Positive edge = we think it's underpriced.
EV (expected value)
Average return if you placed the bet many times. +15% EV means about 15c profit per $1 staked, on average.
Risk tiers
Conservative leans to safe favourites, Balanced blends, Aggressive chases bigger-odds longshots. Pick what suits you.
Edge badges
Strong / Solid / Slight edge rank how much value the model sees — and how big a stake it suggests. They're not a promise the bet wins.

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Yair Rodriguez
Rodriguez
Main Event
75%
Model Leans Rodriguez
2026-09-12
Jean Silva
Silva
Noche UFC: Rodriguez vs. Silva
2026
12
SEP
⚡ Next Event

Noche UFC: Rodriguez vs. Silva

Desert Diamond Arena, Glendale, USA
10
Bouts
Yair Rodriguez
Yair Rodriguez
Mexico 21-5-0 Freestyle Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
75% | 25%
Featherweight 5 rds
⏱ Sun 13 Sep · 7:00 AM AEST
Jean Silva
Jean Silva
Brazil 17-3-0 Striker Orthodox
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Yair Rodriguez
75.1 %
050100
CI · 45 – 98 · σ 0.073 · Medium
Why this pick
  • the case against Jean Silva comes in on a 2-fight cleaner skid
  • layoff Rodriguez hasn't fought since Feb 2024 — ring rust is hard to price, so the model widens its uncertainty here
  • Yair Rodriguez out-volumes opponents at 4.6 sig/min vs Jean Silva's 0.0
Method Breakdown
Rodriguez Silva
KO/TKO 28.6
6.2
Submission 10.2
8.1
Decision 36.3
10.6
Finish Distribution · By Round
20
R1
14
R2
8
R3
7
R4
3
R5
47
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Rodriguez Silva
Str/min 4.6
0.0
Sig Acc 46%
0%
Str Def 52%
0%
TD/min 0.05
0.00
Finish 53%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
43
27
RodriguezSilva
Combined 84 15–197
Takedowns
0.1
0.9
RodriguezSilva
Combined 1.5 0.0–4.5
Fight length
Expected 3.3 of 5 rounds 47% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Loss streak favours Silva

    Jean Silva comes in on a 2-fight cleaner skid

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Brandon Moreno
Brandon Moreno
Mexico 23-10-2 Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
54% | 46%
Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 13 Sep · 7:00 AM AEST
Joseph Morales
Joseph Morales
United States 15-2-0 Freestyle Switch Stance 2-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Brandon Moreno
54.0 %
050100
CI · 24 – 84 · σ 0.079 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Brandon Moreno lands 1.8 more sig strikes per minute
  • Brandon Moreno stuffs 39% more incoming takedowns
  • the case against Joseph Morales eats 1.6 fewer strikes per minute
  • Brandon Moreno has a 15-fight UFC experience edge (20 vs 5)
Method Breakdown
Moreno Morales
KO/TKO 15.2
2.9
Submission 9.4
9.2
Decision 29.5
33.8
Finish Distribution · By Round
19
R1
11
R2
7
R3
63
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Moreno Morales
Str/min 3.8
2.0
Sig Acc 44%
41%
Str Def 60%
58%
TD/min 0.09
0.08
Finish 35%
80%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
38
34
MorenoMorales
Combined 69 23–121
Takedowns
0.7
0.5
MorenoMorales
Combined 2.0 0.0–4.3
Fight length
Expected 2.3 of 3 rounds 63% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Morales

    Joseph Morales eats 1.6 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Moreno

    Brandon Moreno lands 1.8 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Win streak favours Morales

    Joseph Morales rides a 2-fight longer win streak

  • 04 Finish rate favours Morales

    Joseph Morales finishes 45% more of their wins

  • 05 Submission rate favours Morales

    Joseph Morales taps opponents 45% more often

  • 06 Takedown defence favours Moreno

    Brandon Moreno stuffs 39% more incoming takedowns

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Alexa Grasso
Alexa Grasso
Mexico 17-5-1 MMA Orthodox 1 win
37% | 63%
Women's Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 13 Sep · 7:00 AM AEST
Manon Fiorot
Manon Fiorot
France 13-2-0 Karate Orthodox 1 win
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Manon Fiorot
63.3 %
050100
CI · 33 – 93 · σ 0.070 · High
Why this pick
  • Manon Fiorot lands 1.5 more sig strikes per minute
  • Manon Fiorot finishes by KO 27% more often
  • Manon Fiorot stuffs 33% more incoming takedowns
  • the case against Alexa Grasso taps opponents 13% more often
  • Manon Fiorot out-volumes opponents at 5.7 sig/min vs Alexa Grasso's 4.1
Method Breakdown
Grasso Fiorot
KO/TKO 5.9
19.5
Submission 1.9
2.5
Decision 28.9
41.3
Finish Distribution · By Round
16
R1
8
R2
6
R3
70
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Grasso Fiorot
Str/min 4.1
5.7
Sig Acc 41%
42%
Str Def 59%
67%
TD/min 0.03
0.07
Finish 27%
33%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
63
67
GrassoFiorot
Combined 137 25–189
Takedowns
0.1
0.3
GrassoFiorot
Combined 1.2 0.0–3.9
Fight length
Expected 2.5 of 3 rounds 70% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Fiorot

    Manon Fiorot lands 1.5 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 KO rate favours Fiorot

    Manon Fiorot finishes by KO 27% more often

  • 03 Takedown defence favours Fiorot

    Manon Fiorot stuffs 33% more incoming takedowns

  • 04 Strikes absorbed favours Fiorot

    Manon Fiorot eats 0.1 fewer strikes per minute

  • 05 Submission rate favours Grasso

    Alexa Grasso taps opponents 13% more often

  • 06 Finish rate favours Fiorot

    Manon Fiorot finishes 7% more of their wins

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Curtis Blaydes
Curtis Blaydes
United States 19-6-0 MMA Orthodox 1 loss
39% | 61%
Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 13 Sep · 7:00 AM AEST
Waldo Cortes Acosta
Waldo Cortes Acosta
Dominican Republic 17-3-0 Striker Orthodox 1 loss
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Waldo Cortes Acosta
61.3 %
050100
CI · 31 – 91 · σ 0.074 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Waldo Cortes Acosta lands 1.0 more sig strikes per minute
  • Waldo Cortes Acosta stuffs 39% more incoming takedowns
  • the case against Curtis Blaydes eats 0.9 fewer strikes per minute
  • Waldo Cortes Acosta has never been finished in 13 fights
Method Breakdown
Blaydes Acosta
KO/TKO 17.0
33.2
Submission 2.4
2.0
Decision 19.3
26.1
Finish Distribution · By Round
30
R1
18
R2
6
R3
45
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Blaydes Acosta
Str/min 4.2
5.2
Sig Acc 52%
49%
Str Def 54%
55%
TD/min 0.34
0.03
Finish 62%
38%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
58
49
BlaydesAcosta
Combined 107 22–179
Takedowns
0.7
0.0
BlaydesAcosta
Combined 0.7 0.0–5.9
Fight length
Expected 1.9 of 3 rounds 45% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Blaydes

    Curtis Blaydes eats 0.9 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Acosta

    Waldo Cortes Acosta lands 1.0 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Takedown volume favours Blaydes

    Curtis Blaydes hits 0.31 more takedowns per minute

  • 04 Finish rate favours Blaydes

    Curtis Blaydes finishes 23% more of their wins

  • 05 Takedown defence favours Acosta

    Waldo Cortes Acosta stuffs 39% more incoming takedowns

  • 06 KO rate favours Blaydes

    Curtis Blaydes finishes by KO 23% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Dan Ige
Dan Ige
United States 19-10-0 Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 1 loss
18% | 82%
Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 13 Sep · 7:00 AM AEST
David Martinez
David Martinez
Mexico 14-1-0 Orthodox 3-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
David Martinez
81.9 %
050100
CI · 52 – 98 · σ 0.080 · Medium
Why this pick
  • David Martinez rides a 3-fight longer win streak
  • David Martinez eats 0.8 fewer strikes per minute
  • David Martinez stuffs 42% more incoming takedowns
  • the case against Dan Ige finishes 6% more of their wins
  • David Martinez rides a 3-fight win streak (Dan Ige: 0)
Method Breakdown
Ige Martinez
KO/TKO 3.1
27.4
Submission 3.8
4.4
Decision 11.3
50.0
Finish Distribution · By Round
20
R1
12
R2
7
R3
61
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Ige Martinez
Str/min 3.6
4.1
Sig Acc 46%
40%
Str Def 56%
70%
TD/min 0.05
0.05
Finish 35%
29%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
44
57
IgeMartinez
Combined 108 25–146
Takedowns
0.3
0.3
IgeMartinez
Combined 0.9 0.0–4.0
Fight length
Expected 2.3 of 3 rounds 61% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Martinez

    David Martinez rides a 3-fight longer win streak

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Martinez

    David Martinez eats 0.8 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 Takedown defence favours Martinez

    David Martinez stuffs 42% more incoming takedowns

  • 04 Striking volume favours Martinez

    David Martinez lands 0.5 more sig strikes per minute

  • 05 Striking defence favours Martinez

    David Martinez avoids 14% more incoming strikes

  • 06 Finish rate favours Ige

    Dan Ige finishes 6% more of their wins

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Tim Elliott
Tim Elliott
United States 22-14-1 Freestyle Southpaw 1 loss
25% | 75%
Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 13 Sep · 4:00 AM AEST
Edgar Chairez
Edgar Chairez
Mexico 13-6-0 Freestyle Orthodox 3-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Edgar Chairez
75.3 %
050100
CI · 45 – 98 · σ 0.073 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Edgar Chairez rides a 3-fight longer win streak
  • Edgar Chairez taps opponents 29% more often
  • Edgar Chairez lands 0.3 more sig strikes per minute
  • the case against Tim Elliott eats 1.6 fewer strikes per minute
  • Edgar Chairez rides a 3-fight win streak (Tim Elliott: 0)
Method Breakdown
Elliott Chairez
KO/TKO 0.0
10.4
Submission 1.9
35.0
Decision 22.8
30.0
Finish Distribution · By Round
12
R1
22
R2
14
R3
53
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Elliott Chairez
Str/min 3.5
3.9
Sig Acc 43%
48%
Str Def 56%
45%
TD/min 0.24
0.00
Finish 36%
43%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
41
39
ElliottChairez
Combined 82 21–160
Takedowns
1.5
0.0
ElliottChairez
Combined 2.3 0.0–5.6
Fight length
Expected 2.3 of 3 rounds 53% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Elliott

    Tim Elliott eats 1.6 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Chairez

    Edgar Chairez rides a 3-fight longer win streak

  • 03 Submission rate favours Chairez

    Edgar Chairez taps opponents 29% more often

  • 04 Takedown volume favours Elliott

    Tim Elliott hits 0.24 more takedowns per minute

  • 05 Striking volume favours Chairez

    Edgar Chairez lands 0.3 more sig strikes per minute

  • 06 Finish rate favours Chairez

    Edgar Chairez finishes 6% more of their wins

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Muslim Salikhov
Muslim Salikhov
Russia 22-6-0 Orthodox 1 loss
34% | 66%
Welterweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 13 Sep · 4:00 AM AEST
Ignacio Bahamondes
Ignacio Bahamondes
Chile 17-7-0 Freestyle Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Ignacio Bahamondes
66.4 %
050100
CI · 36 – 96 · σ 0.072 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Ignacio Bahamondes lands 2.4 more sig strikes per minute
  • Ignacio Bahamondes taps opponents 20% more often
  • the case against Muslim Salikhov eats 1.2 fewer strikes per minute
  • Ignacio Bahamondes out-volumes opponents at 5.8 sig/min vs Muslim Salikhov's 3.4
Method Breakdown
Salikhov Bahamondes
KO/TKO 8.8
49.3
Submission 0.1
1.8
Decision 24.7
15.3
Finish Distribution · By Round
32
R1
17
R2
12
R3
40
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Salikhov Bahamondes
Str/min 3.4
5.8
Sig Acc 50%
46%
Str Def 62%
55%
TD/min 0.07
0.00
Finish 64%
50%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
42
48
SalikhovBahamondes
Combined 101 18–155
Takedowns
0.2
0.1
SalikhovBahamondes
Combined 0.6 0.0–3.9
Fight length
Expected 1.9 of 3 rounds 40% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Bahamondes

    Ignacio Bahamondes lands 2.4 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Salikhov

    Muslim Salikhov eats 1.2 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 KO rate favours Salikhov

    Muslim Salikhov finishes by KO 27% more often

  • 04 Finish rate favours Salikhov

    Muslim Salikhov finishes 14% more of their wins

  • 05 Submission rate favours Bahamondes

    Ignacio Bahamondes taps opponents 20% more often

  • 06 Takedown volume favours Salikhov

    Muslim Salikhov hits 0.07 more takedowns per minute

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Kelvin Gastelum
Kelvin Gastelum
United States 21-11-0 Boxing Southpaw 1 loss
21% | 79%
Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 13 Sep · 4:00 AM AEST
Yousri Belgaroui
Yousri Belgaroui
Netherlands 9-3-0 Striker Orthodox 2-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Yousri Belgaroui
78.8 %
050100
CI · 49 – 98 · σ 0.095 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Yousri Belgaroui lands 4.3 more sig strikes per minute
  • Yousri Belgaroui eats 1.9 fewer strikes per minute
  • Yousri Belgaroui finishes by KO 88% more often
  • Yousri Belgaroui out-volumes opponents at 8.0 sig/min vs Kelvin Gastelum's 3.7
Method Breakdown
Gastelum Belgaroui
KO/TKO 3.3
45.7
Submission 9.7
4.7
Decision 8.2
28.4
Finish Distribution · By Round
33
R1
19
R2
11
R3
37
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Gastelum Belgaroui
Str/min 3.7
8.0
Sig Acc 42%
67%
Str Def 57%
71%
TD/min 0.07
0.04
Finish 35%
100%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
29
51
GastelumBelgaroui
Combined 93 22–156
Takedowns
0.6
0.1
GastelumBelgaroui
Combined 1.0 0.0–4.1
Fight length
Expected 1.8 of 3 rounds 37% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Belgaroui

    Yousri Belgaroui lands 4.3 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Belgaroui

    Yousri Belgaroui eats 1.9 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 KO rate favours Belgaroui

    Yousri Belgaroui finishes by KO 88% more often

  • 04 Finish rate favours Belgaroui

    Yousri Belgaroui finishes 65% more of their wins

  • 05 Win streak favours Belgaroui

    Yousri Belgaroui rides a 2-fight longer win streak

  • 06 Striking accuracy favours Belgaroui

    Yousri Belgaroui is 24% more accurate on the feet

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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JJ Aldrich
JJ Aldrich
United States 15-7-0 Striker Southpaw 2-fight win streak
34% | 66%
Women's Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 13 Sep · 4:00 AM AEST
RT
Regina Tarin
1-0-0 nan 1 win
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Regina Tarin
66.1 %
050100
CI · 36 – 96 · σ 0.082 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Regina Tarin lands 3.7 more sig strikes per minute
  • the case against JJ Aldrich eats 2.7 fewer strikes per minute
  • Regina Tarin out-volumes opponents at 7.6 sig/min vs JJ Aldrich's 3.9
Method Breakdown
Aldrich Tarin
KO/TKO 3.7
14.8
Submission 2.0
2.8
Decision 28.1
48.5
Finish Distribution · By Round
12
R1
7
R2
4
R3
77
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Aldrich Tarin
Str/min 3.9
7.6
Sig Acc 46%
48%
Str Def 62%
58%
TD/min 0.05
0.07
Finish 18%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
56
60
AldrichTarin
Combined 125 24–177
Takedowns
0.1
0.4
AldrichTarin
Combined 1.5 0.0–4.3
Fight length
Expected 2.6 of 3 rounds 77% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Aldrich

    JJ Aldrich eats 2.7 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Tarin

    Regina Tarin lands 3.7 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Win streak favours Aldrich

    JJ Aldrich rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 04 Finish rate favours Aldrich

    JJ Aldrich finishes 18% more of their wins

  • 05 KO rate favours Aldrich

    JJ Aldrich finishes by KO 12% more often

  • 06 Takedown defence favours Aldrich

    JJ Aldrich stuffs 18% more incoming takedowns

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Tommy McMillen
Tommy McMillen
United States 10-0-0 MMA Orthodox 2-fight win streak
48% | 52%
Featherweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 13 Sep · 7:00 AM AEST
Marwan Rahiki
Marwan Rahiki
Morocco 9-0-0 Striker nan 2-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Marwan Rahiki
52.4 %
050100
CI · 22 – 82 · σ 0.095 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Marwan Rahiki finishes 18% more of their wins
  • Marwan Rahiki finishes by KO 18% more often
  • Marwan Rahiki is 14% more accurate on the feet
  • the case against Tommy McMillen lands 6.6 more sig strikes per minute
  • Tommy McMillen out-volumes opponents at 15.3 sig/min vs Marwan Rahiki's 8.8
Method Breakdown
McMillen Rahiki
KO/TKO 19.5
27.1
Submission 5.2
8.5
Decision 22.9
16.8
Finish Distribution · By Round
44
R1
14
R2
3
R3
40
DEC
Key Stats career avg
McMillen Rahiki
Str/min 15.3
8.8
Sig Acc 41%
55%
Str Def 63%
59%
TD/min 0.00
0.00
Finish 82%
100%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
33
33
McMillenRahiki
Combined 60 20–144
Takedowns
0.0
0.0
McMillenRahiki
Combined 0.5 0.0–3.9
Fight length
Expected 1.7 of 3 rounds 40% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours McMillen

    Tommy McMillen lands 6.6 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours McMillen

    Tommy McMillen eats 1.4 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 Finish rate favours Rahiki

    Marwan Rahiki finishes 18% more of their wins

  • 04 KO rate favours Rahiki

    Marwan Rahiki finishes by KO 18% more often

  • 05 Striking accuracy favours Rahiki

    Marwan Rahiki is 14% more accurate on the feet

  • 06 Striking defence favours McMillen

    Tommy McMillen avoids 5% more incoming strikes

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.