⟁ Past Events — Predictions vs. Actual Results
51 of 66
confident picks landed — when the model gives a fighter 70%+ it has been right 77% of the time
12–22
betting record with the same amount on every recommended bet (-12.3 units — early days, small sample)
Bankroll curve
$1000 per event · Conservative tier · opening odds
−$687
2026-06-15
peak $148 · trough $-783
2026-08-29
UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song
2026-08-29 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly ·
+$32
| Pick |
Fight |
Odds |
Stake |
Result |
| Julia Polastri wins |
Xiong Jingnan vs Julia Polastri |
1.45 |
$80 |
✓ won
+$36
|
| Nilson Rojas wins |
Bilal Hasan vs Nilson Rojas |
5.50 |
$80 |
✗ lost
−$80
|
| Denise Gomes wins |
Yan Xiaonan vs Denise Gomes |
2.32 |
$57 |
✓ won
+$76
|
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues
2026-08-22 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly ·
−$111
| Pick |
Fight |
Odds |
Stake |
Result |
| Terrance Chatman wins |
Anthony Wint vs Terrance Chatman |
8.00 |
$80 |
✗ lost
−$80
|
| Ryan Kuse wins |
Marcio Barbosa vs Ryan Kuse |
7.00 |
$31 |
✗ lost
−$31
|
UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry
2026-08-15 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly ·
−$80
| Pick |
Fight |
Odds |
Stake |
Result |
| Gillian Robertson wins |
Mackenzie Dern vs Gillian Robertson |
2.72 |
$80 |
✗ lost
−$80
|
UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld
2026-08-08 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly ·
−$75
| Pick |
Fight |
Odds |
Stake |
Result |
| Louie Sutherland wins |
Henrique Da Silva Lopes vs Louie Sutherland |
1.63 |
— |
⋯ pending
|
| Guilherme Pat wins |
Steven Asplund vs Guilherme Pat |
3.02 |
$49 |
✗ lost
−$49
|
| Jessie Rosas wins |
Miles Johns vs Jessie Rosas |
2.33 |
— |
⋯ pending
|
| Amanda Lemos wins |
Amanda Lemos vs Alexia Thainara |
3.02 |
$27 |
✗ lost
−$27
|
UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez
2026-08-01 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly ·
−$56
| Pick |
Fight |
Odds |
Stake |
Result |
| Mateusz Rebecki wins |
Kyle Prepolec vs Mateusz Rebecki |
1.18 |
$80 |
✓ won
+$14
|
| Oban Elliott wins |
Oban Elliott vs Michael Oliveira |
3.57 |
$80 |
✗ lost
−$80
|
| Bogdan Grad wins |
Dennis Buzukja vs Bogdan Grad |
1.52 |
$62 |
✓ won
+$32
|
| Fight goes to Decision |
Daniel Rodriguez vs Uros Medic |
7.25 |
$22 |
✗ lost
−$22
|
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov
2026-07-25 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly ·
−$102
| Pick |
Fight |
Odds |
Stake |
Result |
| Nurullo Aliev wins |
Mike Davis vs Nurullo Aliev |
1.54 |
$80 |
✓ won
+$43
|
| Tyrell Fortune wins |
Rizvan Kuniev vs Tyrell Fortune |
3.34 |
$80 |
✗ lost
−$80
|
| Damian Rzepecki wins |
Magomed Zaynukov vs Damian Rzepecki |
3.73 |
$43 |
✗ lost
−$43
|
| Dustin Jacoby wins |
Dustin Jacoby vs Muhammad Said |
1.59 |
$23 |
✗ lost
−$23
|
UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman
2026-07-18 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly ·
+$38
| Pick |
Fight |
Odds |
Stake |
Result |
| Chase Hooper wins |
Chase Hooper vs Mitch Ramirez |
1.27 |
$80 |
✓ won
+$22
|
| Christian Leroy Duncan wins |
Jared Cannonier vs Christian Leroy Duncan |
1.32 |
$80 |
✓ won
+$26
|
| Dricus Du Plessis wins by SUB |
Kamaru Usman vs Dricus Du Plessis |
9.25 |
$55 |
✗ lost
−$55
|
| Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani wins |
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs Seokhyeon Ko |
2.66 |
$28 |
✓ won
+$46
|
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2
2026-07-11 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly ·
−$200
| Pick |
Fight |
Odds |
Stake |
Result |
| Elisha Ellison wins |
Gable Steveson vs Elisha Ellison |
10.00 |
$138 |
✗ lost
−$138
|
| Benoit Saint Denis wins |
Paddy Pimblett vs Benoit Saint Denis |
1.53 |
$62 |
✗ lost
−$62
|
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres
2026-06-27 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly ·
−$216
| Pick |
Fight |
Odds |
Stake |
Result |
| Manuel Torres wins |
Rafael Fiziev vs Manuel Torres |
1.96 |
$115 |
✗ lost
−$115
|
| Eric Nolan wins by Sub or Decision |
Eric Nolan vs Farman Hasanov |
5.30 |
$70 |
✗ lost
−$70
|
| Matheus Camilo wins |
Nazim Sadykhov vs Matheus Camilo |
2.99 |
$48 |
✓ won
+$95
|
| Ends in Round 3+ / Decision |
Julius Walker vs Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev |
3.92 |
$44 |
✗ lost
−$44
|
| Fight reaches Round 2 |
Julius Walker vs Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev |
2.17 |
$44 |
✗ lost
−$44
|
| Michel Pereira wins |
Michel Pereira vs Shara Magomedov |
3.82 |
$37 |
✗ lost
−$37
|
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi 2
2026-06-20 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly ·
+$109
| Pick |
Fight |
Odds |
Stake |
Result |
| Luana Santos wins |
Karol Rosa vs Luana Santos |
1.97 |
$157 |
✓ won
+$152
|
| Kyoji Horiguchi wins by KO/TKO |
Kyoji Horiguchi vs Manel Kape |
11.50 |
$43 |
✗ lost
−$43
|
UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje
2026-06-15 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly ·
−$26
| Pick |
Fight |
Odds |
Stake |
Result |
| Josh Hokit wins by KO or Decision |
Derrick Lewis vs Josh Hokit |
1.78 |
$73 |
✓ won
+$57
|
| Ilia Topuria wins by DEC |
Justin Gaethje vs Ilia Topuria |
13.00 |
$57 |
✗ lost
−$57
|
| Steve Garcia wins |
Steve Garcia vs Diego Lopes |
2.48 |
$52 |
✗ lost
−$52
|
| Bo Nickal wins by KO or Decision |
Kyle Daukaus vs Bo Nickal |
1.71 |
$38 |
✓ won
+$27
|
7 / 12
Legs landed
58.3% of picks
1 / 6
Parlays won
every leg has to land
−$421
Profit
$100 on each
Only 6 parlays
settled so far — far too few to judge the profit either way. On 93 past cards,
parlays picked this way landed 61% of the time.
UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song
2026-08-29 ·
−$100
2-leg @ 1.81
Julia Polastri wins @ 1.45Ends in Round 3+ / Decision @ 1.25
✗ LOST
−$100
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues
2026-08-22 ·
−$100
2-leg @ 2.31
Fight reaches Round 2 @ 1.30Gauge Young wins @ 1.78
✗ LOST
−$100
UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez
2026-08-01 ·
+$79
2-leg @ 1.79
Mateusz Rebecki wins @ 1.18Bogdan Grad wins @ 1.52
✓ WON
+$79
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov
2026-07-25 ·
−$100
2-leg @ 2.45
Dustin Jacoby wins @ 1.59Nurullo Aliev wins @ 1.54
✗ LOST
−$100
UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman
2026-07-18 ·
−$100
2-leg @ 2.24
Christian Leroy Duncan wins @ 1.32Alvin Hines wins @ 1.70
✗ LOST
−$100
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2
2026-07-11 ·
−$100
2-leg @ 1.99
Damian Pinas wins @ 1.46Fight reaches Round 2 @ 1.36
✗ LOST
−$100
