Updated 2026-10-14 01:28 AEST
5
Bouts
1
Events
New here? How to read these predictions
Win probability
Our model's estimate that a fighter wins — e.g. 72% means we'd expect them to win roughly 7 of 10 times.
Confidence interval (CI)
The range the true probability likely falls in. Wider = less certain. A pick'em fight has a wide band; a clear favourite a narrow one.
Edge
How much higher our probability is than the bookmaker's implied odds. Positive edge = we think it's underpriced.
EV (expected value)
Average return if you placed the bet many times. +15% EV means about 15c profit per $1 staked, on average.
Risk tiers
Conservative leans to safe favourites, Balanced blends, Aggressive chases bigger-odds longshots. Pick what suits you.
Edge badges
Strong / Solid / Slight edge rank how much value the model sees — and how big a stake it suggests. They're not a promise the bet wins.

Tap any fight row to open the full model breakdown. New to the model itself? How it works · FAQ.

IB
Bulaid
Main Event
54%
Model Leans Visconde
2026-10-13
EV
Visconde
Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 10
2026
13
OCT
⚡ Next Event

Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 10

Meta APEX, Las Vegas, USA
5
Bouts
IB
Ilias Bulaid
46% | 54%
Featherweight 5 rds
⏱ Wed 14 Oct · 9:00 AM AEST
EV
Erick Visconde
Model Favourite
Erick Visconde
53.7 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Erick Visconde is favoured at 54% — fight-history features sparse
  • Ilias Bulaid has no UFC fights — too little to compare fight stats, so this pick leans on age, size and pre-UFC record
Method Breakdown
Bulaid Visconde
KO/TKO 14.7
21.2
Submission 12.8
14.3
Decision 18.9
18.2
Finish Distribution · By Round
25
R1
15
R2
12
R3
7
R4
5
R5
37
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Bulaid Visconde
Str/min 0.0
0.0
Sig Acc 0%
0%
Str Def 0%
0%
TD/min 0.00
0.00
Finish 0%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
25
26
BulaidVisconde
Combined 61 18–156
Takedowns
0.3
0.3
BulaidVisconde
Combined 2.1 0.0–5.6
Fight length
Expected 3.0 of 5 rounds 37% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Model lean favours Visconde

    Erick Visconde is favoured at 54% — fight-history features sparse

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
Sportsbet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
AP
Aline Pereira
30% | 70%
Women's Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Wed 14 Oct · 9:00 AM AEST
SS
Smilla Sundell
Model Favourite
Smilla Sundell
70.5 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Smilla Sundell is favoured at 70% — fight-history features sparse
  • Aline Pereira has no UFC fights — too little to compare fight stats, so this pick leans on age, size and pre-UFC record
Method Breakdown
Pereira Sundell
KO/TKO 6.2
17.7
Submission 7.3
27.7
Decision 16.0
25.1
Finish Distribution · By Round
29
R1
18
R2
12
R3
41
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Pereira Sundell
Str/min 0.0
0.0
Sig Acc 0%
0%
Str Def 0%
0%
TD/min 0.00
0.00
Finish 0%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
30
34
PereiraSundell
Combined 64 16–153
Takedowns
0.3
0.3
PereiraSundell
Combined 2.1 0.0–4.8
Fight length
Expected 1.9 of 3 rounds 41% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Model lean favours Sundell

    Smilla Sundell is favoured at 70% — fight-history features sparse

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
Sportsbet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
WR
Will Rentz
58% | 42%
Welterweight 3 rds
⏱ Wed 14 Oct · 9:00 AM AEST
LF
Luis Francischinelli
Model Favourite
Will Rentz
58.1 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Will Rentz is favoured at 58% — fight-history features sparse
  • Will Rentz has no UFC fights — too little to compare fight stats, so this pick leans on age, size and pre-UFC record
Method Breakdown
Rentz Francischinelli
KO/TKO 20.2
14.2
Submission 15.2
8.9
Decision 22.6
18.8
Finish Distribution · By Round
33
R1
16
R2
10
R3
41
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Rentz Francischinelli
Str/min 0.0
0.0
Sig Acc 0%
0%
Str Def 0%
0%
TD/min 0.00
0.00
Finish 0%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
25
22
RentzFrancischinelli
Combined 53 14–152
Takedowns
0.3
0.3
RentzFrancischinelli
Combined 2.0 0.0–5.0
Fight length
Expected 1.9 of 3 rounds 41% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Model lean favours Rentz

    Will Rentz is favoured at 58% — fight-history features sparse

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
Sportsbet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
DS
Davi Cabral de Souza
48% | 52%
Middleweight 3 rds
DL
Douglas Da Lapa
Model Favourite
Douglas Da Lapa
52.1 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Douglas Da Lapa is favoured at 52% — fight-history features sparse
  • Davi Cabral de Souza has no UFC fights — too little to compare fight stats, so this pick leans on age, size and pre-UFC record
Method Breakdown
Souza Lapa
KO/TKO 16.7
17.2
Submission 12.6
12.8
Decision 18.6
22.0
Finish Distribution · By Round
30
R1
18
R2
11
R3
41
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Souza Lapa
Str/min 0.0
0.0
Sig Acc 0%
0%
Str Def 0%
0%
TD/min 0.00
0.00
Finish 0%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
24
25
SouzaLapa
Combined 52 13–145
Takedowns
0.3
0.3
SouzaLapa
Combined 2.1 0.0–4.9
Fight length
Expected 1.9 of 3 rounds 41% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Model lean favours Lapa

    Douglas Da Lapa is favoured at 52% — fight-history features sparse

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
Sportsbet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
JA
Jason Asher
62% | 38%
Lightweight 3 rds
⏱ Wed 14 Oct · 9:00 AM AEST
GF
Greg Foster
Model Favourite
Jason Asher
61.9 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Jason Asher is favoured at 62% — fight-history features sparse
  • Jason Asher has no UFC fights — too little to compare fight stats, so this pick leans on age, size and pre-UFC record
Method Breakdown
Asher Foster
KO/TKO 20.9
10.2
Submission 17.7
10.2
Decision 23.3
17.6
Finish Distribution · By Round
31
R1
18
R2
10
R3
41
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Asher Foster
Str/min 0.0
0.0
Sig Acc 0%
0%
Str Def 0%
0%
TD/min 0.00
0.00
Finish 0%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
25
22
AsherFoster
Combined 52 14–141
Takedowns
0.3
0.3
AsherFoster
Combined 2.1 0.0–5.0
Fight length
Expected 1.9 of 3 rounds 41% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Model lean favours Asher

    Jason Asher is favoured at 62% — fight-history features sparse

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
Sportsbet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.