Updated 2026-07-14 19:24 AEST
12
Bouts
0
Events
New here? How to read these predictions
Win probability
Our model's estimate that a fighter wins — e.g. 72% means we'd expect them to win roughly 7 of 10 times.
Confidence interval (CI)
The range the true probability likely falls in. Wider = less certain. A pick'em fight has a wide band; a clear favourite a narrow one.
Edge
How much higher our probability is than the bookmaker's implied odds. Positive edge = we think it's underpriced.
EV (expected value)
Average return if you placed the bet many times. +15% EV means about 15c profit per $1 staked, on average.
Risk tiers
Conservative leans to safe favourites, Balanced blends, Aggressive chases bigger-odds longshots. Pick what suits you.
Edge badges
Strong / Solid / Slight edge rank how much value the model sees — and how big a stake it suggests. They're not a promise the bet wins.

Tap any fight row to open the full model breakdown. New to the model itself? How it works · FAQ.

Magomed Ankalaev
Ankalaev
Main Event
69%
Model Leans Ankalaev
2026-07-25
Bogdan Guskov
Guskov
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov
2026
25
JUL
⚡ Next Event

UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov

Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
12
Bouts
Magomed Ankalaev
Magomed Ankalaev
Russia 21-2-1 MMA Orthodox 1 loss
69% | 31%
Light Heavyweight 5 rds
⏱ Sun 26 Jul · 2:00 AM AEST
Bogdan Guskov
Bogdan Guskov
Uzbekistan 18-3-0 MMA Orthodox 1 loss
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Magomed Ankalaev
69.1 %
050100
90% CI · 39 – 98 · σ 0.048 · High
Why this pick
  • Magomed Ankalaev eats 1.5 fewer strikes per minute
  • Magomed Ankalaev stuffs 30% more incoming takedowns
  • Magomed Ankalaev avoids 12% more incoming strikes
  • the case against Bogdan Guskov lands 0.9 more sig strikes per minute
  • Bogdan Guskov out-volumes opponents at 4.6 sig/min vs Magomed Ankalaev's 3.7
Method Breakdown
Ankalaev Guskov
KO/TKO 41.7
17.3
Submission 4.0
3.7
Decision 23.3
10.0
Finish Distribution · By Round
32
R1
15
R2
10
R3
6
R4
3
R5
33
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Ankalaev Guskov
Str/min 3.7
4.6
Sig Acc 53%
56%
Str Def 56%
45%
TD/min 0.05
0.00
Finish 50%
83%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
49
44
AnkalaevGuskov
Combined 85 17–193
Takedowns
0.6
0.1
AnkalaevGuskov
Combined 1.1 0.0–4.0
Fight length
Expected 2.7 of 5 rounds 33% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Ankalaev

    Magomed Ankalaev eats 1.5 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Guskov

    Bogdan Guskov lands 0.9 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Finish rate favours Guskov

    Bogdan Guskov finishes 33% more of their wins

  • 04 Takedown defence favours Ankalaev

    Magomed Ankalaev stuffs 30% more incoming takedowns

  • 05 Submission rate favours Guskov

    Bogdan Guskov taps opponents 17% more often

  • 06 Striking defence favours Ankalaev

    Magomed Ankalaev avoids 12% more incoming strikes

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Ramazan Temirov
Ramazan Temirov
Uzbekistan 19-3-0 Striker Orthodox 2-fight win streak
63% | 37%
Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 26 Jul · 2:00 AM AEST
Steve Erceg
Steve Erceg
Australia 14-4-0 MMA Orthodox 2-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Ramazan Temirov
62.6 %
050100
90% CI · 33 – 93 · σ 0.047 · High
Why this pick
  • Ramazan Temirov finishes 25% more of their wins
  • Ramazan Temirov finishes by KO 25% more often
  • Ramazan Temirov stuffs 33% more incoming takedowns
  • the case against Steve Erceg lands 0.3 more sig strikes per minute
  • Ramazan Temirov has never been finished in 2 fights
Method Breakdown
Temirov Erceg
KO/TKO 16.7
1.9
Submission 0.1
11.6
Decision 45.8
24.0
Finish Distribution · By Round
15
R1
10
R2
5
R3
70
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Temirov Erceg
Str/min 4.4
4.6
Sig Acc 40%
48%
Str Def 59%
56%
TD/min 0.06
0.08
Finish 50%
25%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
53
51
TemirovErceg
Combined 105 22–160
Takedowns
0.2
0.2
TemirovErceg
Combined 0.8 0.0–3.9
Fight length
Expected 2.4 of 3 rounds 70% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Finish rate favours Temirov

    Ramazan Temirov finishes 25% more of their wins

  • 02 KO rate favours Temirov

    Ramazan Temirov finishes by KO 25% more often

  • 03 Takedown defence favours Temirov

    Ramazan Temirov stuffs 33% more incoming takedowns

  • 04 Strikes absorbed favours Temirov

    Ramazan Temirov eats 0.1 fewer strikes per minute

  • 05 Striking volume favours Erceg

    Steve Erceg lands 0.3 more sig strikes per minute

  • 06 Striking accuracy favours Erceg

    Steve Erceg is 7% more accurate on the feet

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Wellington Turman
Wellington Turman
Brazil 18-8-0 Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 3-fight loss streak
27% | 73%
Welterweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 26 Jul · 2:00 AM AEST
Islam Dulatov
Islam Dulatov
Russia 12-1-0 MMA Orthodox 1 win
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Islam Dulatov
73.0 %
050100
90% CI · 43 – 98 · σ 0.042 · High
Why this pick
  • Islam Dulatov lands 1.9 more sig strikes per minute
  • Islam Dulatov eats 0.8 fewer strikes per minute
  • Islam Dulatov finishes by KO 78% more often
  • layoff Turman hasn't fought since Dec 2023 — ring rust is hard to price, so the model widens its uncertainty here
  • Islam Dulatov out-volumes opponents at 5.1 sig/min vs Wellington Turman's 3.2
Method Breakdown
Turman Dulatov
KO/TKO 0.1
38.4
Submission 7.4
8.4
Decision 19.5
26.2
Finish Distribution · By Round
28
R1
18
R2
9
R3
46
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Turman Dulatov
Str/min 3.2
5.1
Sig Acc 51%
51%
Str Def 45%
48%
TD/min 0.10
0.00
Finish 44%
100%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
29
40
TurmanDulatov
Combined 71 16–142
Takedowns
0.8
0.1
TurmanDulatov
Combined 1.5 0.0–4.1
Fight length
Expected 2.0 of 3 rounds 46% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Dulatov

    Islam Dulatov lands 1.9 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Dulatov

    Islam Dulatov eats 0.8 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 KO rate favours Dulatov

    Islam Dulatov finishes by KO 78% more often

  • 04 Finish rate favours Dulatov

    Islam Dulatov finishes 56% more of their wins

  • 05 Win streak favours Dulatov

    Islam Dulatov rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 06 Takedown defence favours Dulatov

    Islam Dulatov stuffs 57% more incoming takedowns

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Magomed Zaynukov
Magomed Zaynukov
1-0-0 Orthodox
56% | 44%
Lightweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 26 Jul · 2:00 AM AEST
DR
Damian Rzepecki
0-0-0
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Magomed Zaynukov
56.2 %
050100
90% CI · 26 – 86 · σ 0.111 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Magomed Zaynukov is favoured at 56% — fight-history features sparse
  • Model uncertainty: ±11pp on the win probability
Method Breakdown
Zaynukov Rzepecki
KO/TKO 5.4
5.1
Submission 42.0
12.9
Decision 8.8
25.8
Finish Distribution · By Round
33
R1
21
R2
11
R3
35
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Zaynukov Rzepecki
Str/min 0.0
0.0
Sig Acc 0%
0%
Str Def 0%
0%
TD/min 0.00
0.00
Finish 0%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
21
15
ZaynukovRzepecki
Combined 43 12–130
Takedowns
0.4
0.2
ZaynukovRzepecki
Combined 1.8 0.0–4.9
Fight length
Expected 1.8 of 3 rounds 35% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Model lean favours Zaynukov

    Magomed Zaynukov is favoured at 56% — fight-history features sparse

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Rizvan Kuniev
Rizvan Kuniev
Russia 12-3-1 Orthodox 1 win
28% | 72%
Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 26 Jul · 2:00 AM AEST
Tyrell Fortune
Tyrell Fortune
United States 18-3-0 nan 1 win
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Tyrell Fortune
71.6 %
050100
90% CI · 42 – 98 · σ 0.053 · High
Why this pick
  • Tyrell Fortune hits 0.20 more takedowns per minute
  • Tyrell Fortune avoids 11% more incoming strikes
  • Tyrell Fortune is 7% more accurate on the feet
  • the case against Rizvan Kuniev lands 0.9 more sig strikes per minute
  • Rizvan Kuniev has never been finished in 2 fights
Method Breakdown
Kuniev Fortune
KO/TKO 6.9
33.7
Submission 3.0
3.7
Decision 18.5
34.3
Finish Distribution · By Round
25
R1
14
R2
8
R3
53
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Kuniev Fortune
Str/min 2.9
2.0
Sig Acc 44%
51%
Str Def 46%
57%
TD/min 0.00
0.20
Finish 0%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
25
34
KunievFortune
Combined 59 19–122
Takedowns
0.1
1.1
KunievFortune
Combined 1.6 0.0–4.7
Fight length
Expected 2.1 of 3 rounds 53% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Kuniev

    Rizvan Kuniev lands 0.9 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Takedown volume favours Fortune

    Tyrell Fortune hits 0.20 more takedowns per minute

  • 03 Strikes absorbed favours Kuniev

    Rizvan Kuniev eats 0.2 fewer strikes per minute

  • 04 Striking defence favours Fortune

    Tyrell Fortune avoids 11% more incoming strikes

  • 05 Striking accuracy favours Fortune

    Tyrell Fortune is 7% more accurate on the feet

  • 06 Takedown defence favours Fortune

    Tyrell Fortune stuffs 9% more incoming takedowns

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Ismael Bonfim
Ismael Bonfim
Brazil 20-6-0 Boxer Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
29% | 71%
Lightweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 26 Jul · 2:00 AM AEST
Axel Sola
Axel Sola
France 11-1-1 Karate Southpaw 1 loss
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Axel Sola
70.6 %
050100
90% CI · 41 – 98 · σ 0.085 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Axel Sola hits 0.08 more takedowns per minute
  • the case against Ismael Bonfim eats 1.3 fewer strikes per minute
  • Ismael Bonfim out-volumes opponents at 5.5 sig/min vs Axel Sola's 4.1
Method Breakdown
Bonfim Sola
KO/TKO 9.1
22.1
Submission 2.6
24.4
Decision 17.8
24.1
Finish Distribution · By Round
29
R1
21
R2
9
R3
42
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Bonfim Sola
Str/min 5.5
4.1
Sig Acc 55%
46%
Str Def 56%
61%
TD/min 0.07
0.15
Finish 80%
50%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
28
35
BonfimSola
Combined 62 16–149
Takedowns
0.0
0.2
BonfimSola
Combined 1.4 0.0–4.5
Fight length
Expected 1.9 of 3 rounds 42% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Bonfim

    Ismael Bonfim eats 1.3 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Bonfim

    Ismael Bonfim lands 1.4 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Finish rate favours Bonfim

    Ismael Bonfim finishes 30% more of their wins

  • 04 Striking accuracy favours Bonfim

    Ismael Bonfim is 9% more accurate on the feet

  • 05 Takedown volume favours Sola

    Axel Sola hits 0.08 more takedowns per minute

  • 06 KO rate favours Bonfim

    Ismael Bonfim finishes by KO 10% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Thomas Petersen
Thomas Petersen
United States 11-4-0 Boxer Southpaw 1 win
31% | 69%
Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sat 25 Jul · 11:00 PM AEST
Valter Walker
Valter Walker
Brazil 15-1-0 MMA Orthodox 4-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Valter Walker
69.3 %
050100
90% CI · 39 – 98 · σ 0.049 · High
Why this pick
  • Valter Walker rides a 3-fight longer win streak
  • Valter Walker taps opponents 80% more often
  • Valter Walker finishes 47% more of their wins
  • the case against Thomas Petersen lands 1.1 more sig strikes per minute
  • Valter Walker rides a 4-fight win streak (Thomas Petersen: 1)
Method Breakdown
Petersen Walker
KO/TKO 9.4
20.2
Submission 3.8
15.8
Decision 17.4
33.4
Finish Distribution · By Round
26
R1
15
R2
8
R3
51
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Petersen Walker
Str/min 3.1
2.0
Sig Acc 58%
52%
Str Def 56%
43%
TD/min 0.18
0.38
Finish 33%
80%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
20
16
PetersenWalker
Combined 48 13–100
Takedowns
0.7
0.7
PetersenWalker
Combined 1.7 0.0–4.8
Fight length
Expected 2.1 of 3 rounds 51% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Walker

    Valter Walker rides a 3-fight longer win streak

  • 02 Submission rate favours Walker

    Valter Walker taps opponents 80% more often

  • 03 Finish rate favours Walker

    Valter Walker finishes 47% more of their wins

  • 04 Striking volume favours Petersen

    Thomas Petersen lands 1.1 more sig strikes per minute

  • 05 KO rate favours Petersen

    Thomas Petersen finishes by KO 33% more often

  • 06 Takedown volume favours Walker

    Valter Walker hits 0.21 more takedowns per minute

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
AV
Abubakar Vagaev
Russia 0-0-0 nan
46% | 54%
Welterweight 3 rds
⏱ Sat 25 Jul · 11:00 PM AEST
Saygid Izagakhmaev
Saygid Izagakhmaev
Russia 22-3-0 Sambo nan 1 loss
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Saygid Izagakhmaev
54.1 %
050100
90% CI · 24 – 84 · σ 0.066 · High
Why this pick
  • the case against Abubakar Vagaev comes in on a 1-fight cleaner skid
  • Saygid Izagakhmaev has never been finished in 1 fights
Method Breakdown
Vagaev Izagakhmaev
KO/TKO 10.9
14.7
Submission 13.6
11.5
Decision 21.4
27.9
Finish Distribution · By Round
26
R1
16
R2
9
R3
49
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Vagaev Izagakhmaev
Str/min 0.0
1.0
Sig Acc 0%
45%
Str Def 0%
59%
TD/min 0.00
0.20
Finish 0%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
18
26
VagaevIzagakhmaev
Combined 49 17–117
Takedowns
0.2
1.6
VagaevIzagakhmaev
Combined 2.2 0.0–4.9
Fight length
Expected 2.1 of 3 rounds 49% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Loss streak favours Vagaev

    Abubakar Vagaev comes in on a 1-fight cleaner skid

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Dustin Jacoby
Dustin Jacoby
United States 22-9-1 Freestyle Orthodox 3-fight win streak
71% | 29%
Light Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sat 25 Jul · 11:00 PM AEST
Uran Satybaldiev
Uran Satybaldiev
Kyrgyzstan 8-1-0 MMA Orthodox 1 win
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Dustin Jacoby
71.5 %
050100
90% CI · 41 – 98 · σ 0.068 · High
Why this pick
  • Dustin Jacoby lands 3.7 more sig strikes per minute
  • Dustin Jacoby rides a 2-fight longer win streak
  • Dustin Jacoby finishes by KO 47% more often
  • the case against Uran Satybaldiev eats 0.5 fewer strikes per minute
  • Dustin Jacoby out-volumes opponents at 5.4 sig/min vs Uran Satybaldiev's 1.8
Method Breakdown
Jacoby Satybaldiev
KO/TKO 25.7
7.6
Submission 5.0
10.4
Decision 40.8
10.5
Finish Distribution · By Round
26
R1
15
R2
8
R3
51
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Jacoby Satybaldiev
Str/min 5.4
1.8
Sig Acc 46%
21%
Str Def 58%
45%
TD/min 0.02
0.00
Finish 53%
41%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
41
27
JacobySatybaldiev
Combined 77 19–146
Takedowns
0.1
0.2
JacobySatybaldiev
Combined 0.7 0.0–3.9
Fight length
Expected 2.1 of 3 rounds 51% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Jacoby

    Dustin Jacoby lands 3.7 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Jacoby

    Dustin Jacoby rides a 2-fight longer win streak

  • 03 Strikes absorbed favours Satybaldiev

    Uran Satybaldiev eats 0.5 fewer strikes per minute

  • 04 KO rate favours Jacoby

    Dustin Jacoby finishes by KO 47% more often

  • 05 Submission rate favours Satybaldiev

    Uran Satybaldiev taps opponents 41% more often

  • 06 Striking accuracy favours Jacoby

    Dustin Jacoby is 25% more accurate on the feet

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Brendson Ribeiro
Brendson Ribeiro
Brazil 17-10-0 Striker Orthodox 3-fight loss streak
29% | 71%
Light Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sat 25 Jul · 11:00 PM AEST
MT
Magomed Tuchalov
Russia 0-0-0 nan
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Magomed Tuchalov
71.4 %
050100
90% CI · 41 – 98 · σ 0.051 · High
Why this pick
  • Magomed Tuchalov comes in on a 3-fight cleaner skid
  • Brendson Ribeiro has a 7-fight UFC experience edge (7 vs 0)
Method Breakdown
Ribeiro Tuchalov
KO/TKO 10.4
37.5
Submission 7.2
4.0
Decision 11.0
29.8
Finish Distribution · By Round
32
R1
18
R2
9
R3
41
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Ribeiro Tuchalov
Str/min 2.6
0.0
Sig Acc 42%
0%
Str Def 51%
0%
TD/min 0.06
0.00
Finish 71%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
20
28
RibeiroTuchalov
Combined 53 14–118
Takedowns
0.0
0.2
RibeiroTuchalov
Combined 1.2 0.0–4.5
Fight length
Expected 1.9 of 3 rounds 41% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Loss streak favours Tuchalov

    Magomed Tuchalov comes in on a 3-fight cleaner skid

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Mike Davis
Mike Davis
United States 12-3-0 MMA nan
12% | 88%
Lightweight 3 rds
⏱ Sat 25 Jul · 11:00 PM AEST
Nurullo Aliev
Nurullo Aliev
11-0-0 Wrestling Orthodox 3-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Nurullo Aliev
88.3 %
050100
90% CI · 58 – 98 · σ 0.085 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Nurullo Aliev rides a 3-fight longer win streak
  • Nurullo Aliev rides a 3-fight win streak (Mike Davis: 0)
Method Breakdown
Davis Aliev
KO/TKO 0.1
10.0
Submission 4.0
11.3
Decision 7.6
67.1
Finish Distribution · By Round
11
R1
8
R2
7
R3
75
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Davis Aliev
Str/min 0.0
2.3
Sig Acc 0%
42%
Str Def 0%
59%
TD/min 0.00
0.13
Finish 0%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
12
27
DavisAliev
Combined 50 18–111
Takedowns
0.0
1.6
DavisAliev
Combined 1.7 0.0–4.9
Fight length
Expected 2.6 of 3 rounds 75% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Aliev

    Nurullo Aliev rides a 3-fight longer win streak

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Santiago Ponzinibbio
Santiago Ponzinibbio
Argentina 31-9-0 Striker Orthodox 1 loss
35% | 65%
Welterweight 3 rds
⏱ Sat 25 Jul · 11:00 PM AEST
Sam Patterson
Sam Patterson
England 14-3-1 MMA Orthodox 1 loss
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Sam Patterson
64.9 %
050100
90% CI · 35 – 95 · σ 0.065 · High
Why this pick
  • Sam Patterson eats 1.6 fewer strikes per minute
  • Sam Patterson finishes 28% more of their wins
  • Sam Patterson taps opponents 33% more often
  • the case against Santiago Ponzinibbio lands 2.2 more sig strikes per minute
  • Santiago Ponzinibbio out-volumes opponents at 4.8 sig/min vs Sam Patterson's 2.6
Method Breakdown
Ponzinibbio Patterson
KO/TKO 10.8
13.0
Submission 1.9
14.0
Decision 22.4
37.9
Finish Distribution · By Round
22
R1
12
R2
6
R3
60
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Ponzinibbio Patterson
Str/min 4.8
2.6
Sig Acc 42%
38%
Str Def 62%
49%
TD/min 0.04
0.07
Finish 55%
83%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
33
32
PonzinibbioPatterson
Combined 75 17–138
Takedowns
0.3
0.0
PonzinibbioPatterson
Combined 0.8 0.0–4.1
Fight length
Expected 2.2 of 3 rounds 60% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Patterson

    Sam Patterson eats 1.6 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Ponzinibbio

    Santiago Ponzinibbio lands 2.2 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Takedown defence favours Ponzinibbio

    Santiago Ponzinibbio stuffs 71% more incoming takedowns

  • 04 Finish rate favours Patterson

    Sam Patterson finishes 28% more of their wins

  • 05 Submission rate favours Patterson

    Sam Patterson taps opponents 33% more often

  • 06 Striking defence favours Ponzinibbio

    Santiago Ponzinibbio avoids 12% more incoming strikes

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.