UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov — Results & Recap

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⟁ Past Events — Predictions vs. Actual Results

130 / 185

Correct Picks

70.3% accuracy · 18 events

6 / 10

Parlay Legs

5 parlays · −$321

−$718

Running P&L · opening

$1000 / event · Conservative · Kelly-weighted · closing: +$369

48 of 62 confident picks landed — when the model gives a fighter 70%+ it has been right 77% of the time

10–21 betting record with the same amount on every recommended bet (-13.1 units — early days, small sample)

Bankroll curve $1000 per event · Conservative tier · opening odds −$718

2026-06-15 peak $148 · trough $-783 2026-08-22

UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues 2026-08-22 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · −$111

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Terrance Chatman wins	Anthony Wint vs Terrance Chatman	8.00	$80	✗ lost −$80
Ryan Kuse wins	Marcio Barbosa vs Ryan Kuse	7.00	$31	✗ lost −$31

UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry 2026-08-15 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · −$80

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Gillian Robertson wins	Mackenzie Dern vs Gillian Robertson	2.72	$80	✗ lost −$80

UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld 2026-08-08 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · −$75

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Louie Sutherland wins	Henrique Da Silva Lopes vs Louie Sutherland	1.63	—	⋯ pending
Guilherme Pat wins	Steven Asplund vs Guilherme Pat	3.02	$49	✗ lost −$49
Jessie Rosas wins	Miles Johns vs Jessie Rosas	2.33	—	⋯ pending
Amanda Lemos wins	Amanda Lemos vs Alexia Thainara	3.02	$27	✗ lost −$27

UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez 2026-08-01 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · −$56

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Mateusz Rebecki wins	Kyle Prepolec vs Mateusz Rebecki	1.18	$80	✓ won +$14
Oban Elliott wins	Oban Elliott vs Michael Oliveira	3.57	$80	✗ lost −$80
Bogdan Grad wins	Dennis Buzukja vs Bogdan Grad	1.52	$62	✓ won +$32
Fight goes to Decision	Daniel Rodriguez vs Uros Medic	7.25	$22	✗ lost −$22

UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov 2026-07-25 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · −$102

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Nurullo Aliev wins	Mike Davis vs Nurullo Aliev	1.54	$80	✓ won +$43
Tyrell Fortune wins	Rizvan Kuniev vs Tyrell Fortune	3.34	$80	✗ lost −$80
Damian Rzepecki wins	Magomed Zaynukov vs Damian Rzepecki	3.73	$43	✗ lost −$43
Dustin Jacoby wins	Dustin Jacoby vs Muhammad Said	1.59	$23	✗ lost −$23

UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman 2026-07-18 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · +$38

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Chase Hooper wins	Chase Hooper vs Mitch Ramirez	1.27	$80	✓ won +$22
Christian Leroy Duncan wins	Jared Cannonier vs Christian Leroy Duncan	1.32	$80	✓ won +$26
Dricus Du Plessis wins by SUB	Kamaru Usman vs Dricus Du Plessis	9.25	$55	✗ lost −$55
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani wins	Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs Seokhyeon Ko	2.66	$28	✓ won +$46

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 2026-07-11 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly · −$200

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Elisha Ellison wins	Gable Steveson vs Elisha Ellison	10.00	$138	✗ lost −$138
Benoit Saint Denis wins	Paddy Pimblett vs Benoit Saint Denis	1.53	$62	✗ lost −$62

UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres 2026-06-27 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly · −$216

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Manuel Torres wins	Rafael Fiziev vs Manuel Torres	1.96	$115	✗ lost −$115
Eric Nolan wins by Sub or Decision	Eric Nolan vs Farman Hasanov	5.30	$70	✗ lost −$70
Matheus Camilo wins	Nazim Sadykhov vs Matheus Camilo	2.99	$48	✓ won +$95
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	Julius Walker vs Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev	3.92	$44	✗ lost −$44
Fight reaches Round 2	Julius Walker vs Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev	2.17	$44	✗ lost −$44
Michel Pereira wins	Michel Pereira vs Shara Magomedov	3.82	$37	✗ lost −$37

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi 2 2026-06-20 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly · +$109

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Luana Santos wins	Karol Rosa vs Luana Santos	1.97	$157	✓ won +$152
Kyoji Horiguchi wins by KO/TKO	Kyoji Horiguchi vs Manel Kape	11.50	$43	✗ lost −$43

UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje 2026-06-15 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly · −$26

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Josh Hokit wins by KO or Decision	Derrick Lewis vs Josh Hokit	1.78	$73	✓ won +$57
Ilia Topuria wins by DEC	Justin Gaethje vs Ilia Topuria	13.00	$57	✗ lost −$57
Steve Garcia wins	Steve Garcia vs Diego Lopes	2.48	$52	✗ lost −$52
Bo Nickal wins by KO or Decision	Kyle Daukaus vs Bo Nickal	1.71	$38	✓ won +$27

6 / 10

Legs landed

60.0% of picks

1 / 5

Parlays won

every leg has to land

−$321

Profit

$100 on each

Only 5 parlays settled so far — far too few to judge the profit either way. On 93 past cards, parlays picked this way landed 61% of the time.

UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues 2026-08-22 · −$100

2-leg @ 2.31 Fight reaches Round 2 @ 1.30Gauge Young wins @ 1.78 ✗ LOST −$100

UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez 2026-08-01 · +$79

2-leg @ 1.79 Mateusz Rebecki wins @ 1.18Bogdan Grad wins @ 1.52 ✓ WON +$79

UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov 2026-07-25 · −$100

2-leg @ 2.45 Dustin Jacoby wins @ 1.59Nurullo Aliev wins @ 1.54 ✗ LOST −$100

UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman 2026-07-18 · −$100

2-leg @ 2.24 Christian Leroy Duncan wins @ 1.32Alvin Hines wins @ 1.70 ✗ LOST −$100

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 2026-07-11 · −$100

2-leg @ 1.99 Damian Pinas wins @ 1.46Fight reaches Round 2 @ 1.36 ✗ LOST −$100

UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov 8/12 · 67%

2026-07-25

Magomed Ankalaev

21-2-1

Winner

Magomed Ankalaev

KO/TKO · R5

✓ predicted

Bogdan Guskov

18-3-0

▼

Model Prediction

Magomed Ankalaev ✓ won 72%

KO 39%· Sub 5%· Dec 28%

Bogdan Guskov 28%

KO 15%· Sub 4%· Dec 9%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Magomed Ankalaev wins	72%	1.06	✓ predicted
Method Magomed Ankalaev wins by KO/TKO	39%	2.35	✓ predicted
Finish round Finish in Round 1	20%	—	missed

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Bogdan Guskov wins by DEC	9%	23.00	✗ lost
Bogdan Guskov wins value	28%	7.25	✗ lost
Bogdan Guskov wins by SUB	4%	46.00	✗ lost
Bogdan Guskov wins by KO/TKO	15%	9.75	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	63%	1.79	✓ won
Magomed Ankalaev wins by KO/TKO	39%	2.35	✓ won
Magomed Ankalaev wins	72%	1.06	✓ won
Fight goes to decision	37%	1.93	✗ lost
Magomed Ankalaev wins by SUB	5%	14.00	✗ lost
Magomed Ankalaev wins by DEC	28%	2.03	✗ lost

Ramazan Temirov

19-3-0

Winner

Ramazan Temirov

KO/TKO · R1

✓ predicted

Steve Erceg

14-4-0

▼

Model Prediction

Ramazan Temirov ✓ won 63%

KO 16%· Sub 0%· Dec 47%

Steve Erceg 37%

KO 7%· Sub 9%· Dec 21%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Ramazan Temirov wins value	63%	1.96	✓ predicted
Method Ramazan Temirov wins by Decision value	47%	4.40	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	68%	1.67	missed

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Ramazan Temirov wins by Decision value	47%	4.50	✗ lost
Ramazan Temirov wins by DEC value	47%	4.40	✗ lost
Ramazan Temirov wins by Sub or Decision value	47%	3.90	✗ lost
Ramazan Temirov wins by KO or Decision value	63%	2.00	✓ won
Ramazan Temirov wins value	63%	1.96	✓ won
Fight goes to decision	68%	1.67	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	68%	1.66	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	71%	1.53	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 3	74%	1.42	✗ lost
Ramazan Temirov significant strikes over 59.5	46%	2.10	—
Ramazan Temirov significant strikes over 49.5	56%	1.72	—
Ramazan Temirov significant strikes over 39.5	64%	1.45	—
Steve Erceg significant strikes over 49.5	55%	1.67	—
Steve Erceg wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	6%	15.00	✗ lost
Steve Erceg significant strikes over 19.5	81%	1.12	—
Ramazan Temirov significant strikes over 19.5	81%	1.11	—
Total significant strikes over 109.5	52%	1.75	—
Ramazan Temirov significant strikes over 29.5	72%	1.25	—
Steve Erceg significant strikes over 29.5	72%	1.25	—
Steve Erceg wins by KO/TKO	7%	12.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 99.5	55%	1.60	—
Steve Erceg significant strikes over 39.5	63%	1.40	—
Total significant strikes over 89.5	59%	1.48	—
Steve Erceg wins by KO or Sub	16%	5.40	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 79.5	63%	1.37	—
Total significant strikes over 119.5	44%	1.95	—
Total significant strikes over 49.5	75%	1.15	—
Total significant strikes over 69.5	67%	1.28	—
Total significant strikes over 59.5	71%	1.21	—
Steve Erceg wins by KO/TKO in R1	4%	23.00	✗ lost
Steve Erceg significant strikes over 59.5	44%	1.91	—
Ramazan Temirov significant strikes over 69.5	31%	2.63	—
Total takedowns over 0.5	68%	1.17	—
Steve Erceg wins by finish in Round 1	8%	9.50	✗ lost
Steve Erceg wins by Submission in R1 or R2	7%	10.50	✗ lost
Steve Erceg wins by Submission in R1	4%	17.00	✗ lost
Steve Erceg wins by SUB	9%	8.50	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 129.5	34%	2.15	—
Steve Erceg wins by KO/TKO in R2	2%	31.00	✗ lost
Finish before Round 3	26%	2.72	✓ won
Steve Erceg significant strikes over 69.5	29%	2.40	—
Steve Erceg wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	4%	19.00	✗ lost
Ramazan Temirov significant strikes over 79.5	21%	3.40	—
Steve Erceg wins	37%	1.88	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	29%	2.37	✓ won
Fight ends before decision	32%	2.11	✓ won
Steve Erceg wins in R3+ or by Decision	27%	2.40	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	12%	5.60	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO	23%	2.80	✓ won
Steve Erceg wins by Submission in R2	3%	23.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	10%	6.25	✗ lost
Steve Erceg wins by KO or Decision	28%	2.25	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	7%	8.50	✗ lost
Steve Erceg wins by Sub or Decision	29%	2.08	✗ lost
Steve Erceg wins by Submission in R2 or R3	4%	14.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 139.5	24%	2.45	—
Fight ends by Submission	9%	6.75	✗ lost
Steve Erceg takedowns over 0.5	39%	1.53	—
Steve Erceg significant strikes over 79.5	19%	3.10	—
Fight ends by Submission in R1	4%	13.00	✗ lost
Ramazan Temirov significant strikes over 89.5	13%	4.33	—
Ramazan Temirov wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	13%	4.40	✓ won
Ramazan Temirov takedowns over 0.5	33%	1.67	—
Ramazan Temirov wins by KO/TKO	16%	3.50	✓ won
Steve Erceg wins by DEC	21%	2.65	✗ lost
Steve Erceg wins by KO/TKO in R3	1%	41.00	✗ lost
Steve Erceg wins by finish in Round 1	8%	6.75	✗ lost
Ramazan Temirov wins by KO/TKO in R1	8%	6.50	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission in R2	3%	18.00	✗ lost
Ramazan Temirov wins by KO/TKO in R2	5%	10.00	✗ lost
Ramazan Temirov wins by KO or Sub	16%	3.15	✓ won
Ramazan Temirov wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	8%	6.25	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 1.5	35%	1.35	—
Ramazan Temirov wins by finish in Round 1	8%	6.00	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	6%	8.00	✗ lost
Steve Erceg wins by Submission in R3	2%	29.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	4%	10.50	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 149.5	15%	2.80	—
Steve Erceg significant strikes over 89.5	10%	4.00	—
Ramazan Temirov wins by KO/TKO in R3	3%	13.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	2%	23.00	✗ lost
Steve Erceg takedowns over 1.5	18%	1.91	—
Total takedowns over 2.5	22%	1.56	—
Ramazan Temirov wins by finish in Round 1	8%	4.00	✓ won
Ramazan Temirov significant strikes over 99.5	6%	5.50	—
Ramazan Temirov takedowns over 1.5	14%	2.10	—
Total takedowns over 3.5	14%	1.85	—
Total significant strikes over 159.5	6%	3.20	—
Steve Erceg takedowns over 2.5	6%	2.50	—
Total takedowns over 4.5	6%	2.25	—
Steve Erceg significant strikes over 99.5	2%	5.00	—

Magomed Zaynukov

8-0-0

Winner

Magomed Zaynukov

Decision (U) · R3

✗ wrong

Damian Rzepecki

10-0-0

▼

Model Prediction

Magomed Zaynukov ✓ won 45%

KO 8%· Sub 18%· Dec 19%

Damian Rzepecki 55%

KO 14%· Sub 14%· Dec 27%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Damian Rzepecki wins value	55%	21.00	missed
Finish round Finish in Round 1	27%	—	missed

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Damian Rzepecki wins value	55%	21.00	✗ lost

Rizvan Kuniev

12-3-1

Winner

Rizvan Kuniev

KO/TKO · R3

✗ wrong

Tyrell Fortune

18-3-0

▼

Model Prediction

Rizvan Kuniev ✓ won 25%

KO 7%· Sub 3%· Dec 15%

Tyrell Fortune 75%

KO 27%· Sub 2%· Dec 46%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Tyrell Fortune wins value	75%	21.00	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	61%	—	missed

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Tyrell Fortune wins value	75%	21.00	✗ lost
Rizvan Kuniev wins value	25%	21.00	✓ won

Abubakar Vagaev

0-0-0

Winner

Abubakar Vagaev

Decision (U) · R3

✗ wrong

Saygid Izagakhmaev

22-3-0

▼

Model Prediction

Abubakar Vagaev ✓ won 44%

KO 10%· Sub 13%· Dec 21%

Saygid Izagakhmaev 56%

KO 14%· Sub 14%· Dec 29%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Saygid Izagakhmaev wins value	56%	9.00	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	50%	—	✓ predicted

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Saygid Izagakhmaev wins value	56%	9.00	✗ lost

Thomas Petersen

11-4-0

Winner

Valter Walker

SUB · R1

✓ predicted

Valter Walker

15-1-0

▼

Model Prediction

Thomas Petersen 34%

KO 12%· Sub 4%· Dec 19%

Valter Walker ✓ won 66%

KO 24%· Sub 14%· Dec 27%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Valter Walker wins	66%	1.52	✓ predicted
Method Valter Walker wins by Decision value	27%	5.60	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	46%	2.59	missed

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Valter Walker wins by KO or Decision value	52%	3.40	✗ lost
Valter Walker wins by KO/TKO value	24%	7.25	✗ lost
Valter Walker wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2 value	21%	8.50	✗ lost
Valter Walker wins by KO/TKO in R1	14%	12.50	✗ lost
Thomas Petersen wins by Submission in R1	2%	71.00	✗ lost
Valter Walker wins by DEC value	27%	5.60	✗ lost
Valter Walker wins by Decision value	27%	5.50	✗ lost
Valter Walker wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	10%	14.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	21%	6.75	✗ lost
Valter Walker wins by KO/TKO in R2	7%	21.00	✗ lost
Thomas Petersen wins by Submission in R1 or R2	3%	41.00	✗ lost
Valter Walker wins by KO/TKO in R3	4%	34.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	36%	3.40	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	46%	2.59	✗ lost
Thomas Petersen wins by SUB	4%	31.00	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	46%	2.50	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	50%	2.20	✓ won
Fight reaches Round 3	54%	1.95	✗ lost
Valter Walker wins	66%	1.52	✓ won
Thomas Petersen wins by Sub or Decision	22%	4.10	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	10%	9.25	✗ lost
Finish before Round 2	31%	2.86	✓ won
Thomas Petersen wins	34%	2.55	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 1	31%	2.75	✓ won
Thomas Petersen wins by DEC	19%	4.50	✗ lost
Thomas Petersen wins by Submission in R2	1%	81.00	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	50%	1.61	✗ lost
Thomas Petersen wins by KO or Decision	30%	2.60	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	54%	1.46	✓ won
Thomas Petersen wins by KO or Sub	15%	5.00	✗ lost
Thomas Petersen wins by KO/TKO in R1	7%	11.50	✗ lost
Valter Walker wins by KO or Sub	39%	1.98	✓ won
Valter Walker wins by Sub or Decision	42%	1.82	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	5%	13.00	✗ lost
Thomas Petersen wins in R3+ or by Decision	18%	3.75	✗ lost
Thomas Petersen wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	10%	7.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	15%	4.40	✗ lost
Thomas Petersen wins by KO/TKO	12%	5.60	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	8%	7.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	10%	4.40	✓ won
Thomas Petersen wins by KO/TKO in R2	3%	14.00	✗ lost
Thomas Petersen wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	5%	9.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	18%	2.40	✓ won
Valter Walker wins by Submission in R1	8%	4.50	✓ won
Valter Walker wins by Submission in R1 or R2	12%	3.00	✓ won
Valter Walker wins by SUB	14%	2.55	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission in R2	5%	7.25	✗ lost
Thomas Petersen wins by KO/TKO in R3	2%	19.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	3%	12.00	✗ lost
Valter Walker wins by Submission in R2 or R3	6%	5.30	✗ lost
Valter Walker wins by Submission in R2	4%	7.75	✗ lost
Valter Walker wins by Submission in R3	2%	13.00	✗ lost

Dustin Jacoby

22-9-1

Winner

Muhammad Said

KO/TKO · R2

✗ wrong

Muhammad Said

9-0-0

▼

Model Prediction

Dustin Jacoby 77%

KO 49%· Sub 7%· Dec 21%

Muhammad Said ✓ won 23%

KO 9%· Sub 3%· Dec 11%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Dustin Jacoby wins value	77%	2.20	missed
Finish round Finish in Round 1	40%	—	missed

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Dustin Jacoby wins value	77%	2.20	✗ lost
Muhammad Said wins	23%	1.59	✓ won

Santiago Ponzinibbio

31-9-0

Winner

Sam Patterson

KO/TKO · R2

✓ predicted

Sam Patterson

14-3-1

▼

Model Prediction

Santiago Ponzinibbio 37%

KO 14%· Sub 4%· Dec 20%

Sam Patterson ✓ won 63%

KO 14%· Sub 15%· Dec 34%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Sam Patterson wins	63%	1.18	✓ predicted
Method Sam Patterson wins by Decision value	34%	5.60	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	53%	3.70	missed

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Fight goes to decision	53%	3.70	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	53%	3.60	✗ lost
Sam Patterson wins by DEC value	34%	5.60	✗ lost
Santiago Ponzinibbio wins by DEC value	20%	9.50	✗ lost
Sam Patterson wins by Decision value	34%	5.50	✗ lost
Santiago Ponzinibbio wins value	37%	4.95	✗ lost
Santiago Ponzinibbio wins by KO or Decision value	33%	5.25	✗ lost
Santiago Ponzinibbio wins by Sub or Decision value	23%	7.50	✗ lost
Santiago Ponzinibbio wins in R3+ or by Decision value	22%	7.50	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 3	61%	2.70	✗ lost
Santiago Ponzinibbio wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	11%	12.00	✗ lost
Santiago Ponzinibbio wins by KO or Sub	17%	7.75	✗ lost
Santiago Ponzinibbio wins by KO/TKO in R1	7%	19.00	✗ lost
Santiago Ponzinibbio wins by KO/TKO	14%	9.50	✗ lost
Sam Patterson wins by Sub or Decision value	49%	2.55	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	57%	2.10	✗ lost
Santiago Ponzinibbio wins by Submission in R1	2%	61.00	✗ lost
Santiago Ponzinibbio wins by Submission in R1 or R2	3%	34.00	✗ lost
Santiago Ponzinibbio wins by KO/TKO in R2	4%	23.00	✗ lost
Santiago Ponzinibbio wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	7%	15.00	✗ lost
Santiago Ponzinibbio wins by finish in Round 1	9%	11.00	✗ lost
Santiago Ponzinibbio wins by SUB	4%	26.00	✗ lost
Santiago Ponzinibbio wins by finish in Round 1	9%	9.75	✗ lost
Santiago Ponzinibbio wins by Submission in R2	1%	71.00	✗ lost
Santiago Ponzinibbio wins by Submission in R2 or R3	2%	46.00	✗ lost
Sam Patterson wins by KO or Decision	48%	1.56	✓ won
Sam Patterson wins	63%	1.18	✓ won
Santiago Ponzinibbio wins by KO/TKO in R3	2%	34.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	19%	3.90	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	43%	1.66	✓ won
Sam Patterson wins by Submission in R3	2%	29.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	6%	11.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	3%	23.00	✗ lost
Santiago Ponzinibbio wins by finish in Round 2	6%	12.00	✗ lost
Sam Patterson wins by SUB	15%	4.30	✗ lost
Sam Patterson wins by Submission in R2	5%	13.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	8%	8.25	✗ lost
Sam Patterson wins by Submission in R1 or R2	13%	4.80	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	10%	6.25	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	47%	1.25	✓ won
Finish before Round 3	39%	1.43	✓ won
Sam Patterson wins by Submission in R1	8%	6.75	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	9%	5.70	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO	28%	1.77	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	4%	11.00	✗ lost
Sam Patterson wins by finish in Round 2	10%	4.50	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	14%	3.00	✗ lost
Sam Patterson wins by KO or Sub	30%	1.44	✓ won
Sam Patterson wins by finish in Round 1	15%	2.37	✗ lost
Sam Patterson wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	7%	5.00	✓ won
Sam Patterson wins by KO/TKO in R3	2%	15.00	✗ lost
Sam Patterson wins by KO/TKO in R2	5%	6.75	✓ won
Sam Patterson wins by KO/TKO	14%	2.08	✓ won
Sam Patterson wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	12%	2.30	✓ won
Sam Patterson wins by KO/TKO in R1	7%	3.35	✗ lost
Sam Patterson wins by finish in Round 1	15%	1.62	✗ lost

Ismael Bonfim

20-6-0

Winner

Axel Sola

SUB · R1

✓ predicted

Axel Sola

11-1-1

▼

Model Prediction

Ismael Bonfim 29%

KO 6%· Sub 2%· Dec 20%

Axel Sola ✓ won 71%

KO 20%· Sub 18%· Dec 34%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Axel Sola wins	71%	1.49	✓ predicted
Method Axel Sola wins by Decision	34%	3.60	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	54%	2.19	missed

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Axel Sola wins by Submission in R1 or R2 value	15%	14.00	✓ won
Axel Sola wins by Submission in R1	10%	21.00	✓ won
Axel Sola wins by SUB value	18%	11.50	✓ won
Axel Sola wins by Submission in R2	5%	31.00	✗ lost
Axel Sola wins by Sub or Decision value	52%	2.90	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission in R1	11%	13.00	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission	20%	6.50	✓ won
Axel Sola wins by DEC	34%	3.60	✗ lost
Axel Sola wins in R3+ or by Decision	43%	2.75	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	54%	2.19	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	54%	2.15	✗ lost
Axel Sola wins	71%	1.49	✓ won
Axel Sola wins by Submission in R3	3%	41.00	✗ lost
Ismael Bonfim wins by DEC	20%	5.10	✗ lost
Axel Sola wins by finish in Round 1	21%	5.00	✓ won
Over 2.5 rounds	58%	1.80	✗ lost
Ismael Bonfim wins by Decision	20%	5.00	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 3	61%	1.67	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	6%	17.00	✗ lost
Finish before Round 2	26%	3.50	✓ won
Axel Sola wins by KO or Decision	53%	1.64	✗ lost
Axel Sola wins by KO or Sub	37%	2.35	✓ won
Ismael Bonfim wins by Sub or Decision	23%	3.80	✗ lost
Ismael Bonfim wins by KO or Decision	26%	3.05	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	42%	1.90	✓ won
Ismael Bonfim wins	29%	2.63	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	46%	1.63	✓ won
Axel Sola wins by finish in Round 2	11%	6.00	✗ lost
Axel Sola wins by KO/TKO in R1	11%	5.80	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	14%	4.40	✗ lost
Axel Sola wins by finish in Round 1	21%	3.00	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission in R3	3%	21.00	✗ lost
Axel Sola wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	17%	3.60	✗ lost
Axel Sola wins by KO/TKO	20%	2.80	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	25%	2.07	✗ lost
Ismael Bonfim wins by KO/TKO in R1	3%	14.00	✗ lost
Axel Sola wins by KO/TKO in R2	6%	8.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	7%	6.00	✗ lost
Ismael Bonfim wins by finish in Round 1	5%	9.50	✗ lost
Axel Sola wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	9%	5.00	✗ lost
Ismael Bonfim wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	5%	8.50	✗ lost
Ismael Bonfim wins by KO/TKO	6%	6.75	✗ lost
Ismael Bonfim wins by KO or Sub	8%	4.70	✗ lost
Ismael Bonfim wins by Submission in R1	1%	26.00	✗ lost
Ismael Bonfim wins by Submission in R1 or R2	2%	15.00	✗ lost
Axel Sola wins by KO/TKO in R3	3%	10.50	✗ lost
Ismael Bonfim wins by KO/TKO in R2	2%	17.00	✗ lost
Ismael Bonfim wins by SUB	2%	12.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	4%	7.75	✗ lost
Ismael Bonfim wins by finish in Round 1	5%	6.00	✗ lost
Ismael Bonfim wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	3%	10.50	✗ lost
Ismael Bonfim wins by Submission in R2	1%	31.00	✗ lost
Ismael Bonfim wins by Submission in R2 or R3	1%	19.00	✗ lost
Ismael Bonfim wins by KO/TKO in R3	1%	21.00	✗ lost