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⟁ Past Events — Predictions vs. Actual Results
70 of 98
confident picks landed — when the model gives a fighter 70%+ it has been right 71% of the time
15–26
betting record with the same amount on every recommended bet (-13.7 units — early days, small sample)
Bankroll curve
+$361
2026-06-15
peak $460 · trough $-968
2026-10-10
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov 8/12 · 67%
2026-07-25
Model Prediction
Magomed Ankalaev
✓ won
72%
KO 39%·
Sub 5%·
Dec 28%
Bogdan Guskov
28%
KO 15%·
Sub 4%·
Dec 9%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Magomed Ankalaev wins | 72% | 1.06 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Magomed Ankalaev wins by KO/TKO | 39% | 2.35 | ✓ predicted |
| Finish round Finish in Round 1 | 20% | — | missed |
Model Prediction
Ramazan Temirov
✓ won
63%
KO 16%·
Sub 0%·
Dec 47%
Steve Erceg
37%
KO 7%·
Sub 9%·
Dec 21%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Ramazan Temirov wins value | 63% | 1.96 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Ramazan Temirov wins by Decision value | 47% | 4.40 | missed |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 68% | 1.67 | missed |
Model Prediction
Magomed Zaynukov
✓ won
45%
KO 8%·
Sub 18%·
Dec 19%
Damian Rzepecki
55%
KO 14%·
Sub 14%·
Dec 27%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Damian Rzepecki wins | 55% | 21.00 | missed |
| Finish round Finish in Round 1 | 27% | — | missed |
Model Prediction
Rizvan Kuniev
✓ won
25%
KO 7%·
Sub 3%·
Dec 15%
Tyrell Fortune
75%
KO 27%·
Sub 2%·
Dec 46%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Tyrell Fortune wins value | 75% | 21.00 | missed |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 61% | — | missed |
Model Prediction
Abubakar Vagaev
✓ won
44%
KO 10%·
Sub 13%·
Dec 21%
Saygid Izagakhmaev
56%
KO 14%·
Sub 14%·
Dec 29%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Saygid Izagakhmaev wins | 56% | 9.00 | missed |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 50% | — | ✓ predicted |
Model Prediction
Thomas Petersen
34%
KO 12%·
Sub 4%·
Dec 19%
Valter Walker
✓ won
66%
KO 24%·
Sub 14%·
Dec 27%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Valter Walker wins | 66% | 1.52 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Valter Walker wins by Decision value | 27% | 5.60 | missed |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 46% | 2.59 | missed |
Model Prediction
Dustin Jacoby
77%
KO 49%·
Sub 7%·
Dec 21%
Muhammad Said
✓ won
23%
KO 9%·
Sub 3%·
Dec 11%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Dustin Jacoby wins | 77% | 2.20 | missed |
| Finish round Finish in Round 1 | 40% | — | missed |
Model Prediction
Santiago Ponzinibbio
37%
KO 14%·
Sub 4%·
Dec 20%
Sam Patterson
✓ won
63%
KO 14%·
Sub 15%·
Dec 34%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Sam Patterson wins | 63% | 1.18 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Sam Patterson wins by Decision value | 34% | 5.60 | missed |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 53% | 3.70 | missed |
Model Prediction
Ismael Bonfim
29%
KO 6%·
Sub 2%·
Dec 20%
Axel Sola
✓ won
71%
KO 20%·
Sub 18%·
Dec 34%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Axel Sola wins | 71% | 1.49 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Axel Sola wins by Decision | 34% | 3.60 | missed |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 54% | 2.19 | missed |
17-10-0
Winner
Magomed Tuchalov
Decision (U) · R3
✓ predicted
MT
0-0-0
Model Prediction
Brendson Ribeiro
30%
KO 7%·
Sub 7%·
Dec 16%
Magomed Tuchalov
✓ won
70%
KO 33%·
Sub 7%·
Dec 29%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Magomed Tuchalov wins | 70% | 1.17 | ✓ predicted |
| Finish round Finish in Round 1 | 31% | — | missed |
Model Prediction
Mike Davis
16%
KO 3%·
Sub 4%·
Dec 9%
Nurullo Aliev
✓ won
84%
KO 12%·
Sub 26%·
Dec 45%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Nurullo Aliev wins | 84% | 1.25 | ✓ predicted |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 55% | — | ✓ predicted |
Model Prediction
Cody Gibson
40%
KO 9%·
Sub 11%·
Dec 20%
Abdul Hussein
✓ won
60%
KO 17%·
Sub 17%·
Dec 26%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Abdul Hussein wins | 60% | 1.10 | ✓ predicted |
| Finish round Finish in Round 1 | 27% | — | missed |