UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman — Results & Recap

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⟁ Past Events — Predictions vs. Actual Results

169 / 246

Correct Picks

68.7% accuracy · 24 events

9 / 16

Parlay Legs

9 parlays · −$514

−$859

Running P&L · opening

$1000 / event · Conservative · Kelly-weighted · closing: +$402

64 of 88 confident picks landed — when the model gives a fighter 70%+ it has been right 73% of the time

14–26 betting record with the same amount on every recommended bet (-14.9 units — early days, small sample)

Bankroll curve $1000 per event · Conservative tier · opening odds −$859

2026-06-15 peak $160 · trough $-946 2026-09-19

UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 2026-09-19 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · +$11

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Dooho Choi wins	Patricio Pitbull vs Dooho Choi	1.39	$72	✗ lost −$72
Edmen Shahbazyan wins	Edmen Shahbazyan vs Brunno Ferreira	1.59	$63	✓ won +$37
Joshua Van wins	Alexandre Pantoja vs Joshua Van	1.85	$54	✓ won +$46

Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado 2026-09-12 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · −$95

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Jose Delgado wins	Jean Silva vs Jose Delgado	4.25	—	⋯ pending
Rafa Garcia wins	Rafa Garcia vs Rongzhu	2.53	$74	✗ lost −$74
Marwan Rahiki wins	Tommy McMillen vs Marwan Rahiki	2.37	$21	✗ lost −$21

UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse 2026-09-05 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · −$52

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Mario Pinto wins	Ryan Spann vs Mario Pinto	1.35	$80	✓ won +$28
Dan Hooker wins	Dan Hooker vs Salahdine Parnasse	5.75	$80	✗ lost −$80

UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song 2026-08-29 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · −$4

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Julia Polastri wins	Xiong Jingnan vs Julia Polastri	1.45	—	⋯ pending
Nilson Rojas wins	Bilal Hasan vs Nilson Rojas	5.50	$80	✗ lost −$80
Denise Gomes wins	Yan Xiaonan vs Denise Gomes	2.32	$57	✓ won +$76

UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues 2026-08-22 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · −$111

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Terrance Chatman wins	Anthony Wint vs Terrance Chatman	8.00	$80	✗ lost −$80
Ryan Kuse wins	Marcio Barbosa vs Ryan Kuse	7.00	$31	✗ lost −$31

UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry 2026-08-15 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · −$80

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Gillian Robertson wins	Mackenzie Dern vs Gillian Robertson	2.72	$80	✗ lost −$80

UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld 2026-08-08 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · −$75

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Louie Sutherland wins	Henrique Da Silva Lopes vs Louie Sutherland	1.63	—	⋯ pending
Guilherme Pat wins	Steven Asplund vs Guilherme Pat	3.02	$49	✗ lost −$49
Jessie Rosas wins	Miles Johns vs Jessie Rosas	2.33	—	⋯ pending
Amanda Lemos wins	Amanda Lemos vs Alexia Thainara	3.02	$27	✗ lost −$27

UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez 2026-08-01 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · −$56

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Mateusz Rebecki wins	Kyle Prepolec vs Mateusz Rebecki	1.18	$80	✓ won +$14
Oban Elliott wins	Oban Elliott vs Michael Oliveira	3.57	$80	✗ lost −$80
Bogdan Grad wins	Dennis Buzukja vs Bogdan Grad	1.52	$62	✓ won +$32
Fight goes to Decision	Daniel Rodriguez vs Uros Medic	7.25	$22	✗ lost −$22

UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov 2026-07-25 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · −$102

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Nurullo Aliev wins	Mike Davis vs Nurullo Aliev	1.54	$80	✓ won +$43
Tyrell Fortune wins	Rizvan Kuniev vs Tyrell Fortune	3.34	$80	✗ lost −$80
Damian Rzepecki wins	Magomed Zaynukov vs Damian Rzepecki	3.73	$43	✗ lost −$43
Dustin Jacoby wins	Dustin Jacoby vs Muhammad Said	1.59	$23	✗ lost −$23

UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman 2026-07-18 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · +$38

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Chase Hooper wins	Chase Hooper vs Mitch Ramirez	1.27	$80	✓ won +$22
Christian Leroy Duncan wins	Jared Cannonier vs Christian Leroy Duncan	1.32	$80	✓ won +$26
Dricus Du Plessis wins by SUB	Kamaru Usman vs Dricus Du Plessis	9.25	$55	✗ lost −$55
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani wins	Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs Seokhyeon Ko	2.66	$28	✓ won +$46

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 2026-07-11 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly · −$200

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Elisha Ellison wins	Gable Steveson vs Elisha Ellison	10.00	$138	✗ lost −$138
Benoit Saint Denis wins	Paddy Pimblett vs Benoit Saint Denis	1.53	$62	✗ lost −$62

UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres 2026-06-27 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly · −$216

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Manuel Torres wins	Rafael Fiziev vs Manuel Torres	1.96	$115	✗ lost −$115
Eric Nolan wins by Sub or Decision	Eric Nolan vs Farman Hasanov	5.30	$70	✗ lost −$70
Matheus Camilo wins	Nazim Sadykhov vs Matheus Camilo	2.99	$48	✓ won +$95
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	Julius Walker vs Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev	3.92	$44	✗ lost −$44
Fight reaches Round 2	Julius Walker vs Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev	2.17	$44	✗ lost −$44
Michel Pereira wins	Michel Pereira vs Shara Magomedov	3.82	$37	✗ lost −$37

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi 2 2026-06-20 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly · +$109

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Luana Santos wins	Karol Rosa vs Luana Santos	1.97	$157	✓ won +$152
Kyoji Horiguchi wins by KO/TKO	Kyoji Horiguchi vs Manel Kape	11.50	$43	✗ lost −$43

UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje 2026-06-15 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly · −$26

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Josh Hokit wins by KO or Decision	Derrick Lewis vs Josh Hokit	1.78	$73	✓ won +$57
Ilia Topuria wins by DEC	Justin Gaethje vs Ilia Topuria	13.00	$57	✗ lost −$57
Steve Garcia wins	Steve Garcia vs Diego Lopes	2.48	$52	✗ lost −$52
Bo Nickal wins by KO or Decision	Kyle Daukaus vs Bo Nickal	1.71	$38	✓ won +$27

9 / 16

Legs landed

56.2% of picks

2 / 9

Parlays won

every leg has to land

−$514

Profit

$100 on each

Only 9 parlays settled so far — far too few to judge the profit either way. On 93 past cards, parlays picked this way landed 61% of the time.

UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 2026-09-19 · −$100

2-leg @ 2.21 Dooho Choi wins @ 1.39Edmen Shahbazyan wins @ 1.59 ✗ LOST −$100

Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado 2026-09-12 · −$100

2-leg @ 3.35 Ends in Round 3+ / Decision @ 2.22Edgar Chairez wins @ 1.51 ✗ LOST −$100

UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse 2026-09-05 · +$107

2-leg @ 2.07 Mario Pinto wins @ 1.35Felipe Lima wins @ 1.53 ✓ WON +$107

UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song 2026-08-29 · −$100

2-leg @ 1.81 Julia Polastri wins @ 1.45Ends in Round 3+ / Decision @ 1.25 ✗ LOST −$100

UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues 2026-08-22 · −$100

2-leg @ 2.31 Fight reaches Round 2 @ 1.30Gauge Young wins @ 1.78 ✗ LOST −$100

UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez 2026-08-01 · +$79

2-leg @ 1.79 Mateusz Rebecki wins @ 1.18Bogdan Grad wins @ 1.52 ✓ WON +$79

UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov 2026-07-25 · −$100

2-leg @ 2.45 Dustin Jacoby wins @ 1.59Nurullo Aliev wins @ 1.54 ✗ LOST −$100

UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman 2026-07-18 · −$100

2-leg @ 2.24 Christian Leroy Duncan wins @ 1.32Alvin Hines wins @ 1.70 ✗ LOST −$100

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 2026-07-11 · −$100

2-leg @ 1.99 Damian Pinas wins @ 1.46Fight reaches Round 2 @ 1.36 ✗ LOST −$100

UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman 8/10 · 80%

2026-07-18

Kamaru Usman

21-4-0

Winner

Dricus Du Plessis

Decision (U) · R5

✓ predicted

Dricus Du Plessis

23-3-0

▼

Model Prediction

Kamaru Usman 30%

KO 12%· Sub 1%· Dec 17%

Dricus Du Plessis ✓ won 70%

KO 23%· Sub 35%· Dec 12%

Actual Fight Stats

	Kamaru Usman	Dricus Du Plessis
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	92/234	136/273
Total strikes landed	99	139
Knockdowns	0	0
Takedowns (landed/att)	0/7	0/2
Submission attempts	0	0
Control time	0:24	0:06

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Kamaru Usman wins value	30%	14.00	missed
Finish round Finish in Round 1	28%	—	missed

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Kamaru Usman wins value	30%	14.00	✗ lost

Jared Cannonier

18-9-0

Winner

Christian Leroy Duncan

Decision (U) · R3

✓ predicted

Christian Leroy Duncan

14-2-0

▼

Model Prediction

Jared Cannonier 12%

KO 4%· Sub 1%· Dec 7%

Christian Leroy Duncan ✓ won 88%

KO 28%· Sub 8%· Dec 52%

Actual Fight Stats

	Jared Cannonier	Christian Leroy Duncan
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	15/46	68/117
Total strikes landed	36	94
Knockdowns	0	0
Takedowns (landed/att)	5/8	1/3
Submission attempts	0	0
Control time	6:12	2:16

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Christian Leroy Duncan wins	88%	1.08	✓ predicted
Finish round Goes the distance	59%	—	✓ predicted

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Christian Leroy Duncan wins	88%	1.08	✓ won
Jared Cannonier wins	12%	6.50	✗ lost

Chase Hooper

16-5-1

Winner

Chase Hooper

SUB · R1

✓ predicted

Mitch Ramirez

8-3-0

▼

Model Prediction

Chase Hooper ✓ won 99%

KO 23%· Sub 41%· Dec 35%

Mitch Ramirez 1%

KO 0%· Sub 0%· Dec 1%

Actual Fight Stats

	Chase Hooper	Mitch Ramirez
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	3/7	1/1
Total strikes landed	4	3
Knockdowns	0	0
Takedowns (landed/att)	1/2	0/0
Submission attempts	1	0
Control time	1:27	0:00

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Chase Hooper wins value	99%	1.27	✓ predicted
Method Chase Hooper wins by Submission	41%	2.40	✓ predicted
Finish round Finish in Round 1	35%	—	✓ predicted

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Chase Hooper wins by DEC value	35%	5.30	✗ lost
Chase Hooper wins by Decision value	35%	5.00	✗ lost
Mitch Ramirez takedowns over 0.5	35%	4.50	✗ lost
Chase Hooper wins by KO or Decision value	58%	2.50	✗ lost
Chase Hooper wins by Sub or Decision value	76%	1.71	✓ won
Fight goes to decision	35%	3.66	✗ lost
Chase Hooper wins value	99%	1.27	✓ won
Fight goes to Decision	35%	3.50	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 3	47%	2.39	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 1.5	64%	1.67	✗ lost
Chase Hooper wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	20%	5.30	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	57%	1.83	✓ won
Chase Hooper wins by KO or Sub	64%	1.62	✓ won
Chase Hooper wins by finish in Round 1	36%	2.87	✓ won
Total takedowns over 0.5	81%	1.29	✓ won
Chase Hooper wins by KO/TKO	23%	4.50	✗ lost
Chase Hooper wins by Submission in R1 or R2	35%	2.90	✓ won
Chase Hooper wins by KO/TKO in R1	13%	7.75	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 2.5	48%	2.10	✗ lost
Chase Hooper wins by Submission in R1	23%	4.30	✓ won
Chase Hooper wins by SUB	41%	2.40	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission in R1	23%	4.10	✓ won
Chase Hooper takedowns over 0.5	68%	1.40	✓ won
Chase Hooper takedowns over 1.5	52%	1.80	✗ lost
Chase Hooper wins by finish in Round 2	19%	5.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	41%	2.25	✓ won
Chase Hooper wins by Submission in R2 or R3	18%	5.00	✗ lost
Chase Hooper wins by Submission in R2	12%	7.50	✗ lost
Chase Hooper significant strikes over 29.5	55%	1.62	✗ lost
Chase Hooper wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	10%	8.75	✗ lost
Chase Hooper significant strikes over 19.5	67%	1.30	✗ lost
Finish before Round 2	36%	2.40	✓ won
Chase Hooper wins by KO/TKO in R2	7%	13.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	12%	7.25	✗ lost
Mitch Ramirez significant strikes over 19.5	53%	1.57	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	65%	1.25	✓ won
Over 2.5 rounds	43%	1.83	✗ lost
Chase Hooper takedowns over 2.5	33%	2.30	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 3.5	26%	2.75	✗ lost
Chase Hooper wins by finish in Round 1	36%	1.94	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 49.5	45%	1.56	✗ lost
Chase Hooper wins by Submission in R3	6%	11.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	6%	11.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	13%	5.00	✗ lost
Chase Hooper wins by KO/TKO in R3	3%	19.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 59.5	37%	1.74	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	23%	2.60	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 4.5	15%	4.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 69.5	29%	1.92	✗ lost
Chase Hooper takedowns over 3.5	18%	3.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	7%	7.75	✗ lost
Mitch Ramirez significant strikes over 29.5	26%	2.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 79.5	23%	2.15	✗ lost
Chase Hooper significant strikes over 39.5	25%	1.91	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 89.5	20%	2.35	✗ lost
Mitch Ramirez significant strikes over 39.5	19%	2.50	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 99.5	17%	2.65	✗ lost
Chase Hooper significant strikes over 49.5	18%	2.40	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 109.5	14%	3.00	✗ lost
Mitch Ramirez significant strikes over 49.5	12%	3.25	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	3%	11.50	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 119.5	11%	3.40	✗ lost
Chase Hooper significant strikes over 59.5	12%	3.00	✗ lost
Chase Hooper takedowns over 4.5	7%	4.50	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 129.5	8%	3.90	✗ lost
Mitch Ramirez significant strikes over 59.5	6%	4.20	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 139.5	4%	4.50	✗ lost
Chase Hooper significant strikes over 69.5	5%	3.60	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 5.5	3%	5.30	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 149.5	1%	5.40	✗ lost
Mitch Ramirez wins by Sub or Decision	1%	8.00	✗ lost
Total knockdowns over 0.5	2%	1.68	✗ lost
Mitch Ramirez wins	1%	3.78	✗ lost

Tabatha Ricci

12-4-0

Winner

Fatima Kline

Decision (U) · R3

✓ predicted

Fatima Kline

9-1-0

▼

Model Prediction

Tabatha Ricci 31%

KO 0%· Sub 7%· Dec 24%

Fatima Kline ✓ won 69%

KO 10%· Sub 5%· Dec 54%

Actual Fight Stats

	Tabatha Ricci	Fatima Kline
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	24/102	66/164
Total strikes landed	26	86
Knockdowns	0	0
Takedowns (landed/att)	1/8	7/9
Submission attempts	0	1
Control time	0:30	5:00

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Fatima Kline wins	69%	1.19	✓ predicted
Method Fatima Kline wins by Decision	54%	1.63	✓ predicted
Finish round Goes the distance	78%	1.33	✓ predicted

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Tabatha Ricci wins by Sub or Decision value	31%	5.30	✗ lost
Tabatha Ricci wins by DEC value	24%	6.75	✗ lost
Tabatha Ricci wins in R3+ or by Decision value	26%	6.00	✗ lost
Tabatha Ricci wins value	31%	4.75	✗ lost
Tabatha Ricci wins by KO or Decision	24%	5.50	✗ lost
Tabatha Ricci wins by SUB	7%	18.00	✗ lost
Tabatha Ricci wins by Submission in R1 or R2	6%	21.00	✗ lost
Tabatha Ricci wins by Submission in R1	3%	34.00	✗ lost
Tabatha Ricci takedowns over 0.5	65%	1.80	✓ won
Tabatha Ricci takedowns over 1.5	45%	2.37	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	78%	1.33	✓ won
Fight goes to Decision	78%	1.32	✓ won
Over 2.5 rounds	80%	1.28	✓ won
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	82%	1.22	✓ won
Tabatha Ricci wins by Submission in R2	2%	46.00	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 0.5	82%	1.21	✓ won
Fight reaches Round 2	89%	1.11	✓ won
Tabatha Ricci wins by Submission in R2 or R3	3%	29.00	✗ lost
Tabatha Ricci significant strikes over 29.5	74%	1.28	✗ lost
Tabatha Ricci significant strikes over 19.5	82%	1.11	✓ won
Tabatha Ricci significant strikes over 39.5	58%	1.57	✗ lost
Fatima Kline wins by DEC	54%	1.63	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 49.5	81%	1.08	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 69.5	75%	1.17	✓ won
Fatima Kline wins by Decision	54%	1.61	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 59.5	78%	1.11	✓ won
Tabatha Ricci significant strikes over 49.5	43%	2.00	✗ lost
Fatima Kline wins by Sub or Decision	59%	1.44	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 79.5	68%	1.24	✓ won
Total takedowns over 1.5	59%	1.42	✓ won
Fatima Kline wins by KO or Decision	64%	1.30	✓ won
Tabatha Ricci wins by Submission in R3	1%	71.00	✗ lost
Fatima Kline wins	69%	1.19	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 89.5	61%	1.31	✓ won
Fatima Kline significant strikes over 29.5	74%	1.08	✓ won
Tabatha Ricci significant strikes over 59.5	30%	2.63	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	11%	7.00	✗ lost
Tabatha Ricci takedowns over 2.5	25%	3.10	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 99.5	55%	1.41	✗ lost
Fatima Kline takedowns over 0.5	44%	1.72	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission in R1	6%	13.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 109.5	47%	1.53	✗ lost
Fatima Kline significant strikes over 39.5	62%	1.17	✓ won
Finish before Round 3	18%	4.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	4%	19.00	✗ lost
Tabatha Ricci wins by KO or Sub	7%	10.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 1	11%	6.25	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	22%	3.14	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	20%	3.25	✗ lost
Fatima Kline significant strikes over 49.5	50%	1.28	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 119.5	38%	1.69	✗ lost
Fatima Kline wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	8%	7.25	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 2.5	36%	1.68	✓ won
Fatima Kline significant strikes over 59.5	43%	1.40	✓ won
Fatima Kline wins by KO/TKO	10%	5.90	✗ lost
Fatima Kline wins by KO/TKO in R1	5%	11.50	✗ lost
Tabatha Ricci significant strikes over 69.5	16%	3.60	✗ lost
Fatima Kline wins by KO or Sub	15%	4.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	7%	8.50	✗ lost
Fatima Kline significant strikes over 69.5	36%	1.62	✗ lost
Fatima Kline significant strikes over 79.5	29%	1.91	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 129.5	28%	1.88	✗ lost
Fatima Kline wins by KO/TKO in R2	3%	16.00	✗ lost
Fatima Kline wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	5%	10.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	5%	9.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	10%	4.80	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 139.5	23%	2.10	✗ lost
Fatima Kline wins by Submission in R1 or R2	4%	12.50	✗ lost
Fatima Kline takedowns over 1.5	22%	2.10	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 149.5	20%	2.35	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 159.5	17%	2.70	✗ lost
Fatima Kline wins by SUB	5%	10.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	2%	23.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 169.5	14%	3.15	✗ lost
Fatima Kline wins by Submission in R1	2%	19.00	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 3.5	22%	2.00	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	4%	11.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	3%	13.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 179.5	11%	3.60	✗ lost
Fatima Kline significant strikes over 89.5	17%	2.30	✗ lost
Fatima Kline wins by Submission in R2	1%	26.00	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 4.5	15%	2.50	✓ won
Fatima Kline wins by KO/TKO in R3	2%	21.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 189.5	8%	4.20	✗ lost
Tabatha Ricci takedowns over 3.5	8%	4.20	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	2%	17.00	✗ lost
Fatima Kline wins by Submission in R3	1%	34.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 199.5	5%	4.80	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 5.5	8%	3.20	✓ won
Fatima Kline takedowns over 2.5	6%	2.63	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 209.5	2%	5.60	✗ lost
Tabatha Ricci significant strikes over 79.5	2%	5.00	✗ lost
Total knockdowns over 0.5	2%	3.00	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 6.5	1%	4.10	✓ won

Alberto Montes

12-1-0

Winner

Tommy McMillen

KO/TKO · R3

✓ predicted

Tommy McMillen

10-0-0

▼

Model Prediction

Alberto Montes 38%

KO 9%· Sub 11%· Dec 18%

Tommy McMillen ✓ won 62%

KO 32%· Sub 5%· Dec 26%

Actual Fight Stats

	Alberto Montes	Tommy McMillen
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	56/147	252/513
Total strikes landed	56	255
Knockdowns	0	2
Takedowns (landed/att)	0/0	0/0
Submission attempts	0	0
Control time	0:00	0:57

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Tommy McMillen wins	62%	1.18	✓ predicted
Method Tommy McMillen wins by KO/TKO	32%	1.86	✓ predicted
Finish round Finish in Round 1	35%	—	missed

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Alberto Montes wins by DEC value	18%	11.50	✗ lost
Alberto Montes wins value	38%	4.30	✗ lost
Alberto Montes wins by SUB	11%	13.00	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	43%	2.90	✗ lost
Alberto Montes wins by KO/TKO	9%	11.00	✗ lost
Tommy McMillen wins by DEC	26%	3.60	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	57%	1.36	✓ won
Tommy McMillen wins	62%	1.18	✓ won
Tommy McMillen wins by KO/TKO	32%	1.86	✓ won
Tommy McMillen wins by SUB	5%	9.25	✗ lost

Austin Bashi

14-1-0

Winner

Jose Delgado

Decision (U) · R3

Jose Delgado

10-2-0

▼

Model Prediction dead even — no pick

Austin Bashi 50%

KO 9%· Sub 11%· Dec 31%

Jose Delgado ✓ won 50%

KO 20%· Sub 5%· Dec 25%

Actual Fight Stats

	Austin Bashi	Jose Delgado
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	32/87	35/85
Total strikes landed	54	70
Knockdowns	0	1
Takedowns (landed/att)	3/14	1/3
Submission attempts	1	0
Control time	3:10	1:54

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Austin Bashi wins	50%	1.72	missed
Method Austin Bashi wins by Decision	31%	2.95	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	56%	2.04	✓ predicted

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Jose Delgado wins by DEC value	25%	6.00	✓ won
Jose Delgado wins in R3+ or by Decision value	34%	4.30	✓ won
Jose Delgado wins by KO or Decision	45%	2.65	✓ won
Fight goes to decision	56%	2.04	✓ won
Fight goes to Decision	56%	2.02	✓ won
Jose Delgado wins by Sub or Decision	30%	3.70	✓ won
Fight reaches Round 3	69%	1.62	✓ won
Over 2.5 rounds	62%	1.72	✓ won
Jose Delgado wins	50%	2.13	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	8%	12.50	✗ lost
Austin Bashi wins by KO or Decision	39%	2.40	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	28%	3.30	✗ lost
Austin Bashi wins by Decision	31%	3.00	✗ lost
Jose Delgado wins by KO/TKO in R3	6%	16.00	✗ lost
Austin Bashi wins by KO/TKO	9%	10.50	✗ lost
Austin Bashi wins by DEC	31%	2.95	✗ lost
Austin Bashi wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	5%	18.00	✗ lost
Jose Delgado wins by KO/TKO	20%	4.40	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	13%	6.75	✗ lost
Austin Bashi wins	50%	1.72	✗ lost
Austin Bashi wins by KO/TKO in R3	2%	34.00	✗ lost
Jose Delgado wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	11%	7.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	12%	6.50	✗ lost
Austin Bashi wins by Sub or Decision	41%	1.94	✗ lost
Austin Bashi wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	6%	13.00	✗ lost
Austin Bashi wins by KO/TKO in R1	4%	21.00	✗ lost
Jose Delgado wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	14%	5.50	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	44%	1.72	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	38%	2.00	✗ lost
Jose Delgado wins by KO or Sub	25%	3.00	✗ lost
Austin Bashi wins by KO/TKO in R2	2%	31.00	✗ lost
Jose Delgado wins by KO/TKO in R1	9%	8.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	8%	9.25	✗ lost
Austin Bashi wins by KO or Sub	19%	3.70	✗ lost
Finish before Round 2	19%	3.69	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 1	19%	3.50	✗ lost
Jose Delgado wins by KO/TKO in R2	5%	12.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	12%	5.10	✗ lost
Austin Bashi wins by Submission in R3	3%	18.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	5%	12.00	✗ lost
Austin Bashi wins by SUB	11%	5.00	✗ lost
Austin Bashi wins by Submission in R2 or R3	6%	8.75	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	16%	3.30	✗ lost
Austin Bashi wins by Submission in R1 or R2	8%	6.25	✗ lost
Austin Bashi wins by Submission in R1	5%	9.75	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	7%	6.50	✗ lost
Jose Delgado wins by Submission in R3	1%	29.00	✗ lost
Austin Bashi wins by Submission in R2	3%	14.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	4%	9.50	✗ lost
Jose Delgado wins by SUB	5%	8.00	✗ lost
Jose Delgado wins by Submission in R1 or R2	4%	10.00	✗ lost
Jose Delgado wins by Submission in R1	2%	15.00	✗ lost
Jose Delgado wins by Submission in R2	1%	21.00	✗ lost

Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani

10-2-0

Winner

Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani

Decision (U) · R3

✓ predicted

Seokhyeon Ko

13-2-0

▼

Model Prediction

Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani ✓ won 52%

KO 15%· Sub 14%· Dec 22%

Seokhyeon Ko 48%

KO 8%· Sub 8%· Dec 32%

Actual Fight Stats

	Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani	Seokhyeon Ko
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	52/152	66/168
Total strikes landed	67	80
Knockdowns	0	0
Takedowns (landed/att)	3/4	0/4
Submission attempts	2	0
Control time	2:09	1:47

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani wins value	52%	2.52	✓ predicted
Method Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani wins by Decision	22%	5.70	✓ predicted
Finish round Goes the distance	54%	1.74	✓ predicted

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani wins in R3+ or by Decision value	33%	4.60	✓ won
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani wins value	52%	2.52	✓ won
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani wins by Sub or Decision value	37%	3.50	✓ won
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani wins by DEC	22%	5.70	✓ won
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani wins by KO or Decision	38%	3.30	✓ won
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani wins by KO or Sub	30%	4.00	✗ lost
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani wins by SUB	14%	8.00	✗ lost
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani wins by Submission in R1 or R2	12%	9.50	✗ lost
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani wins by Submission in R2 or R3	8%	14.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	22%	4.90	✗ lost
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani wins by Submission in R2	5%	21.00	✗ lost
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani wins by KO/TKO	15%	6.75	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	8%	13.00	✗ lost
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	8%	12.00	✗ lost
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani wins by finish in Round 2	10%	9.50	✗ lost
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	12%	8.00	✗ lost
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani wins by KO/TKO in R2	5%	18.00	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 2	79%	1.20	✓ won
Finish before Round 3	37%	2.53	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	54%	1.74	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission in R1	10%	9.25	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	54%	1.73	✓ won
Under 2.5 rounds	41%	2.25	✗ lost
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	63%	1.48	✓ won
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani wins by Submission in R3	3%	34.00	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	46%	2.01	✗ lost
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani wins by Submission in R1	7%	14.00	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	59%	1.57	✓ won
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani wins by finish in Round 1	14%	6.50	✗ lost
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani wins by KO/TKO in R3	3%	29.00	✗ lost
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani wins by KO/TKO in R1	7%	12.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	4%	19.00	✗ lost
Seokhyeon Ko wins by Submission in R1 or R2	6%	12.50	✗ lost
Seokhyeon Ko wins by Decision	32%	2.50	✗ lost
Seokhyeon Ko wins by SUB	8%	10.00	✗ lost
Seokhyeon Ko wins by DEC	32%	2.40	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	24%	3.15	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	9%	8.50	✗ lost
Seokhyeon Ko wins	48%	1.53	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	8%	8.75	✗ lost
Seokhyeon Ko wins by Submission in R2	3%	26.00	✗ lost
Seokhyeon Ko wins by KO or Decision	40%	1.72	✗ lost
Seokhyeon Ko wins by Submission in R1	4%	19.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	11%	6.25	✗ lost
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani wins by finish in Round 1	14%	4.80	✗ lost
Seokhyeon Ko wins by KO or Sub	16%	3.70	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	4%	12.50	✗ lost
Seokhyeon Ko wins by finish in Round 2	6%	9.50	✗ lost
Seokhyeon Ko wins by finish in Round 1	7%	7.00	✗ lost
Seokhyeon Ko wins by Submission in R3	1%	34.00	✗ lost
Seokhyeon Ko wins by KO/TKO	8%	5.30	✗ lost
Seokhyeon Ko wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	7%	6.50	✗ lost
Seokhyeon Ko wins by KO/TKO in R2	3%	14.00	✗ lost
Seokhyeon Ko wins by KO/TKO in R1	4%	10.50	✗ lost
Seokhyeon Ko wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	5%	8.75	✗ lost
Seokhyeon Ko wins by finish in Round 1	7%	4.75	✗ lost
Seokhyeon Ko wins by KO or Sub	16%	2.03	✗ lost
Seokhyeon Ko wins by KO/TKO in R3	2%	18.00	✗ lost

Felipe Franco

10-1-0

Winner

Felipe Franco

KO/TKO · R2

✗ wrong

Levi Rodrigues Jr.

1-0-0

▼

Model Prediction

Felipe Franco ✓ won 48%

KO 14%· Sub 13%· Dec 21%

Levi Rodrigues Jr. 52%

KO 19%· Sub 7%· Dec 26%

Actual Fight Stats

	Felipe Franco	Levi Rodrigues Jr.
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	39/56	11/32
Total strikes landed	52	26
Knockdowns	0	0
Takedowns (landed/att)	3/6	0/0
Submission attempts	0	0
Control time	3:51	0:00

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Levi Rodrigues Jr. wins	52%	1.61	missed
Method Levi Rodrigues Jr. wins by Decision value	26%	10.00	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	46%	4.60	missed

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Levi Rodrigues Jr. wins by DEC value	26%	10.00	✗ lost
Levi Rodrigues Jr. wins by Decision value	26%	9.50	✗ lost
Levi Rodrigues Jr. wins by Sub or Decision value	33%	7.00	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	46%	4.60	✗ lost
Felipe Franco wins by DEC	21%	7.50	✗ lost
Felipe Franco wins by Decision	21%	6.50	✗ lost
Levi Rodrigues Jr. wins by SUB	7%	18.00	✗ lost
Felipe Franco wins by Sub or Decision	34%	3.70	✗ lost
Felipe Franco wins by KO or Decision	35%	3.35	✓ won
Felipe Franco wins value	48%	2.34	✓ won
Over 2.5 rounds	51%	2.10	✗ lost
Felipe Franco wins by KO or Sub	27%	3.10	✓ won
Felipe Franco wins by finish in Round 1	14%	6.00	✗ lost
Levi Rodrigues Jr. wins	52%	1.61	✗ lost
Felipe Franco wins by SUB	13%	6.25	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	49%	1.66	✓ won
Felipe Franco wins by KO/TKO	14%	5.40	✓ won
Levi Rodrigues Jr. wins by KO or Decision	45%	1.70	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	54%	1.17	✓ won
Felipe Franco wins by finish in Round 2	9%	7.00	✓ won
Felipe Franco wins by finish in Round 3	5%	11.00	✗ lost
Levi Rodrigues Jr. wins by KO or Sub	26%	1.83	✗ lost
Levi Rodrigues Jr. wins by finish in Round 1	13%	3.50	✗ lost
Levi Rodrigues Jr. wins by finish in Round 3	5%	8.50	✗ lost
Levi Rodrigues Jr. wins by KO/TKO	19%	1.97	✗ lost
Levi Rodrigues Jr. wins by finish in Round 2	8%	4.50	✗ lost

Damien Anderson

5-0-0

Winner

Ezra Elliott

Decision (U) · R3

Ezra Elliott

1-0-0

▼

Model Prediction dead even — no pick

Damien Anderson 50%

KO 10%· Sub 13%· Dec 26%

Ezra Elliott ✓ won 50%

KO 9%· Sub 13%· Dec 28%

Actual Fight Stats

	Damien Anderson	Ezra Elliott
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	7/20	6/11
Total strikes landed	23	21
Knockdowns	0	0
Takedowns (landed/att)	0/2	12/18
Submission attempts	1	3
Control time	0:47	11:01

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Ezra Elliott wins	50%	1.94	✓ predicted
Method Ezra Elliott wins by Decision value	28%	5.75	✓ predicted
Finish round Goes the distance	54%	2.76	✓ predicted

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Ezra Elliott wins by DEC value	28%	5.75	✓ won
Ezra Elliott wins by Decision value	28%	5.50	✓ won
Fight goes to decision	54%	2.76	✓ won
Fight goes to Decision	54%	2.65	✓ won
Ezra Elliott wins by KO or Decision value	37%	3.60	✓ won
Damien Anderson wins by Decision	26%	5.00	✗ lost
Damien Anderson wins by DEC	26%	4.90	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 3	62%	1.94	✓ won
Ezra Elliott wins by Sub or Decision	41%	2.45	✓ won
Over 2.5 rounds	58%	1.72	✓ won
Damien Anderson wins by KO or Decision	37%	2.70	✗ lost
Ezra Elliott wins	50%	1.94	✓ won
Damien Anderson wins by Sub or Decision	39%	2.45	✗ lost
Damien Anderson wins	50%	1.90	✗ lost
Ezra Elliott wins by KO/TKO in R1	5%	16.00	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	42%	2.00	✗ lost
Ezra Elliott wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	8%	10.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	11%	7.00	✗ lost
Finish before Round 2	27%	2.98	✗ lost
Ezra Elliott wins by KO/TKO	9%	8.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 1	27%	2.90	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	20%	3.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	15%	4.50	✗ lost
Damien Anderson wins by Submission in R1	8%	8.75	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	46%	1.41	✗ lost
Ezra Elliott wins by KO or Sub	22%	2.90	✗ lost
Damien Anderson wins by KO/TKO in R1	6%	10.50	✗ lost
Damien Anderson wins by Submission in R1 or R2	11%	5.60	✗ lost
Damien Anderson wins by KO or Sub	24%	2.60	✗ lost
Ezra Elliott wins by Submission in R1	8%	8.00	✗ lost
Damien Anderson wins by SUB	13%	4.50	✗ lost
Damien Anderson wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	9%	6.75	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	26%	2.20	✗ lost
Damien Anderson wins by KO/TKO	10%	5.50	✗ lost
Ezra Elliott wins by Submission in R1 or R2	11%	5.10	✗ lost
Ezra Elliott wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	4%	14.00	✗ lost
Ezra Elliott wins by KO/TKO in R2	2%	23.00	✗ lost
Ezra Elliott wins by SUB	13%	4.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	12%	4.30	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	5%	10.00	✗ lost
Ezra Elliott wins by KO/TKO in R3	2%	31.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	8%	6.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	7%	6.50	✗ lost
Damien Anderson wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	4%	9.75	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	3%	13.00	✗ lost
Damien Anderson wins by Submission in R2	3%	12.00	✗ lost
Damien Anderson wins by Submission in R3	2%	18.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	4%	9.00	✗ lost
Ezra Elliott wins by Submission in R2 or R3	6%	7.00	✗ lost
Ezra Elliott wins by Submission in R2	3%	11.50	✗ lost
Damien Anderson wins by KO/TKO in R2	3%	14.00	✗ lost
Damien Anderson wins by KO/TKO in R3	2%	21.00	✗ lost
Ezra Elliott wins by Submission in R3	2%	14.00	✗ lost

Alden Coria

12-3-0

Winner

Alden Coria

Decision (U) · R3

✓ predicted

Stewart Nicoll

8-3-0

▼

Model Prediction

Alden Coria ✓ won 86%

KO 22%· Sub 7%· Dec 57%

Stewart Nicoll 14%

KO 0%· Sub 3%· Dec 11%

Actual Fight Stats

	Alden Coria	Stewart Nicoll
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	44/127	28/90
Total strikes landed	60	32
Knockdowns	0	0
Takedowns (landed/att)	3/5	5/9
Submission attempts	4	0
Control time	2:17	4:17

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Alden Coria wins	86%	1.08	✓ predicted
Method Alden Coria wins by Decision value	57%	4.00	✓ predicted
Finish round Goes the distance	67%	3.14	✓ predicted

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Alden Coria wins by DEC value	57%	4.00	✓ won
Alden Coria wins by Decision value	57%	3.75	✓ won
Fight goes to decision	67%	3.14	✓ won
Fight goes to Decision	67%	3.05	✓ won
Stewart Nicoll wins by DEC	11%	14.00	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 3	71%	1.95	✓ won
Stewart Nicoll wins by Sub or Decision	14%	9.00	✗ lost
Alden Coria wins by Sub or Decision value	64%	1.88	✓ won
Alden Coria wins by KO or Decision value	79%	1.51	✓ won
Stewart Nicoll wins	14%	8.00	✗ lost
Stewart Nicoll wins by Decision	11%	10.50	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	69%	1.57	✓ won
Stewart Nicoll wins by KO or Decision	11%	10.00	✗ lost
Alden Coria wins	86%	1.08	✓ won
Stewart Nicoll wins by Submission in R1	2%	41.00	✗ lost
Alden Coria wins by KO/TKO in R1	13%	5.50	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	31%	2.25	✗ lost
Stewart Nicoll wins by Submission in R1 or R2	3%	23.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	13%	5.20	✗ lost
Stewart Nicoll wins by SUB	3%	19.00	✗ lost
Alden Coria wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	20%	3.15	✗ lost
Finish before Round 2	19%	3.22	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 1	19%	3.10	✗ lost
Stewart Nicoll wins by Submission in R2	1%	51.00	✗ lost
Alden Coria wins by KO/TKO	22%	2.30	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	22%	2.20	✗ lost
Alden Coria wins by KO/TKO in R2	7%	6.50	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	33%	1.33	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	7%	6.25	✗ lost
Alden Coria wins by KO or Sub	29%	1.44	✗ lost
Stewart Nicoll wins by KO or Sub	3%	12.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	6%	6.75	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	10%	3.80	✗ lost
Alden Coria wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	10%	3.90	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	10%	3.05	✗ lost
Alden Coria wins by Submission in R1	4%	7.75	✗ lost
Alden Coria wins by Submission in R1 or R2	6%	4.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	3%	8.25	✗ lost
Alden Coria wins by SUB	7%	3.45	✗ lost
Alden Coria wins by KO/TKO in R3	3%	8.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	3%	7.75	✗ lost
Alden Coria wins by Submission in R2	2%	9.25	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	4%	4.80	✗ lost
Alden Coria wins by Submission in R2 or R3	3%	5.60	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	1%	10.00	✗ lost
Alden Coria wins by Submission in R3	1%	11.50	✗ lost

Alvin Hines

7-1-0

Winner

RJ Harris

KO/TKO · R1

✗ wrong

RJ Harris

0-0-0

▼

Model Prediction

Alvin Hines 69%

KO 43%· Sub 10%· Dec 16%

RJ Harris ✓ won 31%

KO 7%· Sub 8%· Dec 16%

Actual Fight Stats

	Alvin Hines	RJ Harris
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	11/25	15/26
Total strikes landed	11	17
Knockdowns	0	1
Takedowns (landed/att)	0/0	0/0
Submission attempts	0	0
Control time	0:00	0:10

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Alvin Hines wins value	69%	1.84	missed
Method Alvin Hines wins by KO/TKO value	43%	3.20	missed
Finish round Finish in Round 1	37%	—	✓ predicted

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Alvin Hines wins by finish in Round 1 value	28%	5.50	✗ lost
Alvin Hines wins by KO/TKO in R1	23%	6.50	✗ lost
Alvin Hines wins by Submission in R1 or R2	9%	17.00	✗ lost
Alvin Hines wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2 value	35%	4.10	✗ lost
Alvin Hines wins by Submission in R1	6%	26.00	✗ lost
Alvin Hines wins by KO or Sub value	53%	2.70	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	63%	2.25	✓ won
Alvin Hines wins by KO/TKO value	43%	3.20	✗ lost
Alvin Hines wins by SUB	10%	13.00	✗ lost
Alvin Hines wins value	69%	1.84	✗ lost
Alvin Hines wins by finish in Round 2	16%	7.50	✗ lost
Alvin Hines wins by KO/TKO in R2	13%	9.25	✗ lost
Alvin Hines wins by KO or Decision value	59%	2.00	✗ lost
Alvin Hines wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	20%	5.70	✗ lost
Finish before Round 2	37%	2.99	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	27%	3.90	✓ won
Alvin Hines wins by Submission in R2	3%	34.00	✗ lost
Alvin Hines wins in R3+ or by Decision	30%	3.50	✗ lost
Alvin Hines wins by Sub or Decision	26%	3.80	✗ lost
Alvin Hines wins by finish in Round 1	28%	3.45	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	68%	1.42	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO	50%	1.92	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission in R1	10%	9.25	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	18%	4.80	✗ lost
RJ Harris wins by DEC	16%	5.70	✗ lost
Alvin Hines wins by Submission in R3	2%	51.00	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	32%	2.74	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 2	63%	1.36	✗ lost
RJ Harris wins by Decision	16%	5.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	15%	5.70	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	32%	2.65	✗ lost
Alvin Hines wins by KO/TKO in R3	7%	11.50	✗ lost
Alvin Hines wins by DEC	16%	4.90	✗ lost
RJ Harris wins by Sub or Decision	24%	3.25	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	6%	13.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	8%	8.00	✗ lost
RJ Harris wins	31%	2.00	✓ won
RJ Harris wins by KO or Decision	23%	2.60	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission in R3	3%	19.00	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	37%	1.57	✗ lost
RJ Harris wins by SUB	8%	6.75	✗ lost
RJ Harris wins by Submission in R1	4%	12.50	✗ lost
RJ Harris wins by Submission in R1 or R2	7%	8.00	✗ lost
RJ Harris wins by KO or Sub	16%	2.80	✓ won
RJ Harris wins by Submission in R2 or R3	4%	11.50	✗ lost
RJ Harris wins by Submission in R2	2%	17.00	✗ lost
RJ Harris wins by Submission in R3	1%	26.00	✗ lost
RJ Harris wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	6%	5.40	✓ won
RJ Harris wins by KO/TKO in R1	4%	8.25	✓ won
RJ Harris wins by KO/TKO	7%	4.40	✓ won
RJ Harris wins by finish in Round 1	8%	3.45	✓ won
RJ Harris wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	3%	7.75	✗ lost
RJ Harris wins by KO/TKO in R2	2%	11.50	✗ lost
RJ Harris wins by KO/TKO in R3	1%	18.00	✗ lost