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- Win probability
- Our model's estimate that a fighter wins — e.g. 72% means we'd expect them to win roughly 7 of 10 times.
- Confidence interval (CI)
- The range the true probability likely falls in. Wider = less certain. A pick'em fight has a wide band; a clear favourite a narrow one.
- Edge
- How much higher our probability is than the bookmaker's implied odds. Positive edge = we think it's underpriced.
- EV (expected value)
- Average return if you placed the bet many times. +15% EV means about 15c profit per $1 staked, on average.
- Risk tiers
- Conservative leans to safe favourites, Balanced blends, Aggressive chases bigger-odds longshots. Pick what suits you.
- Edge badges
- Strong / Solid / Slight edge rank how much value the model sees — and how big a stake it suggests. They're not a promise the bet wins.
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UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman
⏱ Sun 19 Jul · 12:45 PM AEST
- Dricus Du Plessis lands 1.0 more sig strikes per minute
- Dricus Du Plessis finishes 28% more of their wins
- Dricus Du Plessis taps opponents 15% more often
- the case against Kamaru Usman eats 1.7 fewer strikes per minute
- Dricus Du Plessis has never been finished in 10 fights
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01 Strikes absorbed favours Usman
Kamaru Usman eats 1.7 fewer strikes per minute
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02 Striking volume favours Plessis
Dricus Du Plessis lands 1.0 more sig strikes per minute
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03 Win streak favours Usman
Kamaru Usman rides a 1-fight longer win streak
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04 Finish rate favours Plessis
Dricus Du Plessis finishes 28% more of their wins
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05 Takedown defence favours Usman
Kamaru Usman stuffs 55% more incoming takedowns
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06 Submission rate favours Plessis
Dricus Du Plessis taps opponents 15% more often
- Christian Leroy Duncan eats 1.8 fewer strikes per minute
- Christian Leroy Duncan rides a 4-fight longer win streak
- Christian Leroy Duncan is 8% more accurate on the feet
- Christian Leroy Duncan rides a 4-fight win streak (Jared Cannonier: 0)
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01 Strikes absorbed favours Duncan
Christian Leroy Duncan eats 1.8 fewer strikes per minute
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02 Win streak favours Duncan
Christian Leroy Duncan rides a 4-fight longer win streak
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03 Striking accuracy favours Duncan
Christian Leroy Duncan is 8% more accurate on the feet
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04 Finish rate favours Duncan
Christian Leroy Duncan finishes 6% more of their wins
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05 Loss streak favours Duncan
Christian Leroy Duncan comes in on a 1-fight cleaner skid
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06 KO rate favours Duncan
Christian Leroy Duncan finishes by KO 6% more often
- Kevin Holland eats 0.3 fewer strikes per minute
- the case against Jacobe Smith lands 1.9 more sig strikes per minute
- Kevin Holland has a 26-fight UFC experience edge (29 vs 3)
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01 Striking volume favours Smith
Jacobe Smith lands 1.9 more sig strikes per minute
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02 Win streak favours Smith
Jacobe Smith rides a 2-fight longer win streak
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03 Finish rate favours Smith
Jacobe Smith finishes 33% more of their wins
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04 KO rate favours Smith
Jacobe Smith finishes by KO 35% more often
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05 Strikes absorbed favours Holland
Kevin Holland eats 0.3 fewer strikes per minute
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06 Takedown volume favours Smith
Jacobe Smith hits 0.21 more takedowns per minute
- Chase Hooper lands 1.5 more sig strikes per minute
- Chase Hooper eats 0.6 fewer strikes per minute
- Chase Hooper taps opponents 31% more often
- the case against Mitch Ramirez finishes by KO 44% more often
- Chase Hooper out-volumes opponents at 4.4 sig/min vs Mitch Ramirez's 2.8
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01 Striking volume favours Hooper
Chase Hooper lands 1.5 more sig strikes per minute
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02 Strikes absorbed favours Hooper
Chase Hooper eats 0.6 fewer strikes per minute
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03 KO rate favours Ramirez
Mitch Ramirez finishes by KO 44% more often
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04 Submission rate favours Hooper
Chase Hooper taps opponents 31% more often
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05 Takedown volume favours Hooper
Chase Hooper hits 0.18 more takedowns per minute
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06 Finish rate favours Ramirez
Mitch Ramirez finishes 13% more of their wins
- Fatima Kline eats 2.1 fewer strikes per minute
- Fatima Kline rides a 3-fight longer win streak
- Fatima Kline lands 1.0 more sig strikes per minute
- Fatima Kline rides a 3-fight win streak (Tabatha Ricci: 0)
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01 Strikes absorbed favours Kline
Fatima Kline eats 2.1 fewer strikes per minute
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02 Win streak favours Kline
Fatima Kline rides a 3-fight longer win streak
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03 Striking volume favours Kline
Fatima Kline lands 1.0 more sig strikes per minute
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04 KO rate favours Kline
Fatima Kline finishes by KO 32% more often
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05 Finish rate favours Kline
Fatima Kline finishes 23% more of their wins
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06 Striking accuracy favours Kline
Fatima Kline is 13% more accurate on the feet
- Tommy McMillen lands 9.9 more sig strikes per minute
- Tommy McMillen finishes by KO 76% more often
- Tommy McMillen avoids 4% more incoming strikes
- the case against Alberto Montes eats 1.2 fewer strikes per minute
- Tommy McMillen out-volumes opponents at 14.2 sig/min vs Alberto Montes's 4.3
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01 Striking volume favours McMillen
Tommy McMillen lands 9.9 more sig strikes per minute
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02 Strikes absorbed favours Montes
Alberto Montes eats 1.2 fewer strikes per minute
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03 KO rate favours McMillen
Tommy McMillen finishes by KO 76% more often
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04 Submission rate favours Montes
Alberto Montes taps opponents 76% more often
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05 Striking defence favours McMillen
Tommy McMillen avoids 4% more incoming strikes
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06 Control time favours Montes
Alberto Montes controls 3% more cage time
- Dione Barbosa eats 0.7 fewer strikes per minute
- Dione Barbosa hits 0.10 more takedowns per minute
- Dione Barbosa avoids 14% more incoming strikes
- the case against Veronica Hardy lands 0.8 more sig strikes per minute
- Dione Barbosa has never been finished in 5 fights
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01 Strikes absorbed favours Barbosa
Dione Barbosa eats 0.7 fewer strikes per minute
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02 Striking volume favours Hardy
Veronica Hardy lands 0.8 more sig strikes per minute
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03 Takedown volume favours Barbosa
Dione Barbosa hits 0.10 more takedowns per minute
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04 Finish rate favours Hardy
Veronica Hardy finishes 10% more of their wins
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05 Striking defence favours Barbosa
Dione Barbosa avoids 14% more incoming strikes
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06 KO rate favours Hardy
Veronica Hardy finishes by KO 10% more often
- Jose Delgado lands 6.1 more sig strikes per minute
- Jose Delgado finishes by KO 47% more often
- Jose Delgado is 18% more accurate on the feet
- the case against Austin Bashi eats 2.7 fewer strikes per minute
- Jose Delgado out-volumes opponents at 7.2 sig/min vs Austin Bashi's 1.1
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01 Striking volume favours Delgado
Jose Delgado lands 6.1 more sig strikes per minute
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02 Strikes absorbed favours Bashi
Austin Bashi eats 2.7 fewer strikes per minute
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03 KO rate favours Delgado
Jose Delgado finishes by KO 47% more often
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04 Submission rate favours Bashi
Austin Bashi taps opponents 41% more often
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05 Striking accuracy favours Delgado
Jose Delgado is 18% more accurate on the feet
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06 Takedown volume favours Bashi
Austin Bashi hits 0.15 more takedowns per minute
- Allen Frye Jr. eats 3.2 fewer strikes per minute
- Allen Frye Jr. controls 52% more cage time
- Allen Frye Jr. is 7% more accurate on the feet
- the case against Alvin Hines lands 3.3 more sig strikes per minute
- Alvin Hines out-volumes opponents at 5.5 sig/min vs Allen Frye Jr.'s 2.2
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01 Strikes absorbed favours Jr.
Allen Frye Jr. eats 3.2 fewer strikes per minute
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02 Striking volume favours Hines
Alvin Hines lands 3.3 more sig strikes per minute
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03 Control time favours Jr.
Allen Frye Jr. controls 52% more cage time
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04 Takedown volume favours Hines
Alvin Hines hits 0.07 more takedowns per minute
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05 Striking accuracy favours Jr.
Allen Frye Jr. is 7% more accurate on the feet
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06 Striking defence favours Hines
Alvin Hines avoids 2% more incoming strikes
- Levi Rodrigues Jr. comes in on a 1-fight cleaner skid
- Felipe Franco has never been finished in 1 fights
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01 Loss streak favours Jr.
Levi Rodrigues Jr. comes in on a 1-fight cleaner skid
- Alden Coria eats 3.4 fewer strikes per minute
- Alden Coria rides a 2-fight longer win streak
- Alden Coria lands 0.7 more sig strikes per minute
- the case against Stewart Nicoll finishes 18% more of their wins
- Alden Coria has never been finished in 2 fights
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01 Strikes absorbed favours Coria
Alden Coria eats 3.4 fewer strikes per minute
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02 Win streak favours Coria
Alden Coria rides a 2-fight longer win streak
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03 Striking volume favours Coria
Alden Coria lands 0.7 more sig strikes per minute
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04 Takedown defence favours Coria
Alden Coria stuffs 43% more incoming takedowns
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05 Finish rate favours Nicoll
Stewart Nicoll finishes 18% more of their wins
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06 Loss streak favours Coria
Alden Coria comes in on a 3-fight cleaner skid
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