Updated 2026-07-05 00:32 AEST
11
Bouts
0
Events
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Win probability
Our model's estimate that a fighter wins — e.g. 72% means we'd expect them to win roughly 7 of 10 times.
Confidence interval (CI)
The range the true probability likely falls in. Wider = less certain. A pick'em fight has a wide band; a clear favourite a narrow one.
Edge
How much higher our probability is than the bookmaker's implied odds. Positive edge = we think it's underpriced.
EV (expected value)
Average return if you placed the bet many times. +15% EV means about 15c profit per $1 staked, on average.
Risk tiers
Conservative leans to safe favourites, Balanced blends, Aggressive chases bigger-odds longshots. Pick what suits you.
Edge badges
Strong / Solid / Slight edge rank how much value the model sees — and how big a stake it suggests. They're not a promise the bet wins.

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Kamaru Usman
Usman
Main Event
72%
Model Leans Plessis
2026-07-18
Dricus Du Plessis
Plessis
UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman
2026
18
JUL
⚡ Next Event

UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman

Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, USA
11
Bouts
Kamaru Usman
Nigeria 21-4-0 Freestyle Switch Stance 1 win
SB 3.50
28% | 72%
Middleweight 5 rds
⏱ Sun 19 Jul · 12:45 PM AEST
Dricus Du Plessis
South Africa 23-3-0 MMA Switch Stance 1 loss
SB 1.29
Breakdown
Model Favourite
Dricus Du Plessis
72.3 %
050100
90% CI · 42 – 98 · σ 0.063 · High
Why this pick
  • Dricus Du Plessis lands 1.0 more sig strikes per minute
  • Dricus Du Plessis finishes 28% more of their wins
  • Dricus Du Plessis taps opponents 15% more often
  • the case against Kamaru Usman eats 1.7 fewer strikes per minute
  • Dricus Du Plessis has never been finished in 10 fights
Method Breakdown
Usman Plessis
KO/TKO 11.9
17.0
Submission 1.3
38.3
Decision 14.5
17.0
Finish Distribution · By Round
23
R1
20
R2
15
R3
7
R4
3
R5
31
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Usman Plessis
Str/min 4.2
5.2
Sig Acc 52%
49%
Str Def 55%
53%
TD/min 0.19
0.15
Finish 32%
60%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
71
56
UsmanPlessis
Combined 124 22–225
Takedowns
1.2
0.0
UsmanPlessis
Combined 1.7 0.0–5.2
Fight length
Expected 2.8 of 5 rounds 32% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Usman

    Kamaru Usman eats 1.7 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Plessis

    Dricus Du Plessis lands 1.0 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Win streak favours Usman

    Kamaru Usman rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 04 Finish rate favours Plessis

    Dricus Du Plessis finishes 28% more of their wins

  • 05 Takedown defence favours Usman

    Kamaru Usman stuffs 55% more incoming takedowns

  • 06 Submission rate favours Plessis

    Dricus Du Plessis taps opponents 15% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed
No markets passed the empirical-ROI gate. 2 markets analysed.
Jared Cannonier
United States 18-9-0 Striker Switch Stance 1 loss
11% | 89%
Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 19 Jul · 10:00 AM AEST
Christian Leroy Duncan
United Kingdom 14-2-0 MMA Switch Stance 4-fight win streak
Breakdown
Model Favourite
Christian Leroy Duncan
89.4 %
050100
90% CI · 59 – 98 · σ 0.082 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Christian Leroy Duncan eats 1.8 fewer strikes per minute
  • Christian Leroy Duncan rides a 4-fight longer win streak
  • Christian Leroy Duncan is 8% more accurate on the feet
  • Christian Leroy Duncan rides a 4-fight win streak (Jared Cannonier: 0)
Method Breakdown
Cannonier Duncan
KO/TKO 3.1
27.2
Submission 1.0
6.3
Decision 6.5
55.9
Finish Distribution · By Round
18
R1
13
R2
7
R3
62
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Cannonier Duncan
Str/min 4.4
4.4
Sig Acc 50%
58%
Str Def 56%
53%
TD/min 0.04
0.02
Finish 50%
56%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
43
58
CannonierDuncan
Combined 97 22–152
Takedowns
0.3
0.1
CannonierDuncan
Combined 0.7 0.0–3.8
Fight length
Expected 2.3 of 3 rounds 62% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Duncan

    Christian Leroy Duncan eats 1.8 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Duncan

    Christian Leroy Duncan rides a 4-fight longer win streak

  • 03 Striking accuracy favours Duncan

    Christian Leroy Duncan is 8% more accurate on the feet

  • 04 Finish rate favours Duncan

    Christian Leroy Duncan finishes 6% more of their wins

  • 05 Loss streak favours Duncan

    Christian Leroy Duncan comes in on a 1-fight cleaner skid

  • 06 KO rate favours Duncan

    Christian Leroy Duncan finishes by KO 6% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Kevin Holland
United States 29-15-0 Kung Fu Orthodox 1 win
51% | 49%
Welterweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 19 Jul · 10:00 AM AEST
Jacobe Smith
United States 12-0-0 Freestyle Southpaw 3-fight win streak
Breakdown
Model Favourite
Kevin Holland
51.3 %
050100
90% CI · 21 – 81 · σ 0.105 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Kevin Holland eats 0.3 fewer strikes per minute
  • the case against Jacobe Smith lands 1.9 more sig strikes per minute
  • Kevin Holland has a 26-fight UFC experience edge (29 vs 3)
Method Breakdown
Holland Smith
KO/TKO 26.1
17.6
Submission 8.7
10.7
Decision 16.5
20.4
Finish Distribution · By Round
32
R1
20
R2
10
R3
37
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Holland Smith
Str/min 4.2
6.0
Sig Acc 50%
56%
Str Def 50%
46%
TD/min 0.06
0.26
Finish 55%
88%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
30
27
HollandSmith
Combined 63 19–137
Takedowns
0.2
1.6
HollandSmith
Combined 2.1 0.0–4.8
Fight length
Expected 1.8 of 3 rounds 37% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Smith

    Jacobe Smith lands 1.9 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Smith

    Jacobe Smith rides a 2-fight longer win streak

  • 03 Finish rate favours Smith

    Jacobe Smith finishes 33% more of their wins

  • 04 KO rate favours Smith

    Jacobe Smith finishes by KO 35% more often

  • 05 Strikes absorbed favours Holland

    Kevin Holland eats 0.3 fewer strikes per minute

  • 06 Takedown volume favours Smith

    Jacobe Smith hits 0.21 more takedowns per minute

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Chase Hooper
United States 16-5-1 Grappler Southpaw 2-fight loss streak
100% | 0%
Lightweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 19 Jul · 10:00 AM AEST
Mitch Ramirez
United States 8-3-0 MMA Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
Breakdown
Model Favourite
Chase Hooper
100.0 %
050100
90% CI · 86 – 98 · σ 0.000 · High
Why this pick
  • Chase Hooper lands 1.5 more sig strikes per minute
  • Chase Hooper eats 0.6 fewer strikes per minute
  • Chase Hooper taps opponents 31% more often
  • the case against Mitch Ramirez finishes by KO 44% more often
  • Chase Hooper out-volumes opponents at 4.4 sig/min vs Mitch Ramirez's 2.8
Method Breakdown
Hooper Ramirez
KO/TKO 15.7
0.0
Submission 59.4
0.0
Decision 24.9
0.0
Finish Distribution · By Round
44
R1
20
R2
11
R3
25
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Hooper Ramirez
Str/min 4.4
2.8
Sig Acc 48%
35%
Str Def 41%
38%
TD/min 0.18
0.00
Finish 69%
82%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
28
23
HooperRamirez
Combined 53 10–124
Takedowns
1.6
0.0
HooperRamirez
Combined 2.4 0.0–5.2
Fight length
Expected 1.5 of 3 rounds 25% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Hooper

    Chase Hooper lands 1.5 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Hooper

    Chase Hooper eats 0.6 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 KO rate favours Ramirez

    Mitch Ramirez finishes by KO 44% more often

  • 04 Submission rate favours Hooper

    Chase Hooper taps opponents 31% more often

  • 05 Takedown volume favours Hooper

    Chase Hooper hits 0.18 more takedowns per minute

  • 06 Finish rate favours Ramirez

    Mitch Ramirez finishes 13% more of their wins

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Tabatha Ricci
Brazil 12-4-0 Judo Orthodox 1 loss
30% | 70%
Women's Strawweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 19 Jul · 10:00 AM AEST
Fatima Kline
United States 9-1-0 Grappler Orthodox 3-fight win streak
Breakdown
Model Favourite
Fatima Kline
69.6 %
050100
90% CI · 40 – 98 · σ 0.072 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Fatima Kline eats 2.1 fewer strikes per minute
  • Fatima Kline rides a 3-fight longer win streak
  • Fatima Kline lands 1.0 more sig strikes per minute
  • Fatima Kline rides a 3-fight win streak (Tabatha Ricci: 0)
Method Breakdown
Ricci Kline
KO/TKO 1.5
7.3
Submission 6.7
6.3
Decision 22.3
56.0
Finish Distribution · By Round
10
R1
7
R2
4
R3
78
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Ricci Kline
Str/min 4.0
5.0
Sig Acc 37%
50%
Str Def 58%
57%
TD/min 0.17
0.13
Finish 27%
50%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
49
55
RicciKline
Combined 105 22–179
Takedowns
1.2
0.3
RicciKline
Combined 2.3 0.0–5.6
Fight length
Expected 2.6 of 3 rounds 78% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Kline

    Fatima Kline eats 2.1 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Kline

    Fatima Kline rides a 3-fight longer win streak

  • 03 Striking volume favours Kline

    Fatima Kline lands 1.0 more sig strikes per minute

  • 04 KO rate favours Kline

    Fatima Kline finishes by KO 32% more often

  • 05 Finish rate favours Kline

    Fatima Kline finishes 23% more of their wins

  • 06 Striking accuracy favours Kline

    Fatima Kline is 13% more accurate on the feet

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Alberto Montes
Venezuela 12-1-0 Striker Orthodox 1 win
38% | 62%
Featherweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 19 Jul · 10:00 AM AEST
Tommy McMillen
United States 10-0-0 MMA Orthodox 1 win
Breakdown
Model Favourite
Tommy McMillen
62.3 %
050100
90% CI · 32 – 92 · σ 0.070 · High
Why this pick
  • Tommy McMillen lands 9.9 more sig strikes per minute
  • Tommy McMillen finishes by KO 76% more often
  • Tommy McMillen avoids 4% more incoming strikes
  • the case against Alberto Montes eats 1.2 fewer strikes per minute
  • Tommy McMillen out-volumes opponents at 14.2 sig/min vs Alberto Montes's 4.3
Method Breakdown
Montes McMillen
KO/TKO 8.7
18.5
Submission 8.2
5.8
Decision 20.7
38.0
Finish Distribution · By Round
24
R1
12
R2
6
R3
59
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Montes McMillen
Str/min 4.3
14.2
Sig Acc 42%
42%
Str Def 63%
67%
TD/min 0.00
0.00
Finish 76%
76%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
28
40
MontesMcMillen
Combined 71 17–160
Takedowns
0.1
0.0
MontesMcMillen
Combined 1.0 0.0–4.3
Fight length
Expected 2.2 of 3 rounds 59% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours McMillen

    Tommy McMillen lands 9.9 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Montes

    Alberto Montes eats 1.2 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 KO rate favours McMillen

    Tommy McMillen finishes by KO 76% more often

  • 04 Submission rate favours Montes

    Alberto Montes taps opponents 76% more often

  • 05 Striking defence favours McMillen

    Tommy McMillen avoids 4% more incoming strikes

  • 06 Control time favours Montes

    Alberto Montes controls 3% more cage time

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Veronica Hardy
Venezuela 10-5-1 MMA Southpaw 1 win
47% | 53%
Women's Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 19 Jul · 7:00 AM AEST
Dione Barbosa
Brazil 9-4-0 Grappler Orthodox 1 win
Breakdown
Model Favourite
Dione Barbosa
53.0 %
050100
90% CI · 23 – 83 · σ 0.061 · High
Why this pick
  • Dione Barbosa eats 0.7 fewer strikes per minute
  • Dione Barbosa hits 0.10 more takedowns per minute
  • Dione Barbosa avoids 14% more incoming strikes
  • the case against Veronica Hardy lands 0.8 more sig strikes per minute
  • Dione Barbosa has never been finished in 5 fights
Method Breakdown
Hardy Barbosa
KO/TKO 14.3
8.1
Submission 4.2
10.0
Decision 28.4
34.9
Finish Distribution · By Round
15
R1
13
R2
9
R3
63
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Hardy Barbosa
Str/min 3.1
2.3
Sig Acc 46%
45%
Str Def 50%
64%
TD/min 0.05
0.16
Finish 30%
20%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
34
36
HardyBarbosa
Combined 68 20–125
Takedowns
0.0
1.6
HardyBarbosa
Combined 2.0 0.0–4.8
Fight length
Expected 2.4 of 3 rounds 63% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Barbosa

    Dione Barbosa eats 0.7 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Hardy

    Veronica Hardy lands 0.8 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Takedown volume favours Barbosa

    Dione Barbosa hits 0.10 more takedowns per minute

  • 04 Finish rate favours Hardy

    Veronica Hardy finishes 10% more of their wins

  • 05 Striking defence favours Barbosa

    Dione Barbosa avoids 14% more incoming strikes

  • 06 KO rate favours Hardy

    Veronica Hardy finishes by KO 10% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Austin Bashi
United States 14-1-0 Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 1 win
49% | 51%
Featherweight 3 rds
Jose Delgado
United States 10-2-0 Switch Stance 1 win
Breakdown
Model Favourite
Jose Delgado
50.5 %
050100
90% CI · 21 – 81 · σ 0.096 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Jose Delgado lands 6.1 more sig strikes per minute
  • Jose Delgado finishes by KO 47% more often
  • Jose Delgado is 18% more accurate on the feet
  • the case against Austin Bashi eats 2.7 fewer strikes per minute
  • Jose Delgado out-volumes opponents at 7.2 sig/min vs Austin Bashi's 1.1
Method Breakdown
Bashi Delgado
KO/TKO 9.9
17.1
Submission 15.1
6.9
Decision 24.4
26.5
Finish Distribution · By Round
24
R1
14
R2
11
R3
51
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Bashi Delgado
Str/min 1.1
7.2
Sig Acc 36%
54%
Str Def 49%
51%
TD/min 0.18
0.03
Finish 41%
47%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
28
34
BashiDelgado
Combined 71 19–133
Takedowns
1.8
0.2
BashiDelgado
Combined 2.1 0.0–4.9
Fight length
Expected 2.1 of 3 rounds 51% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Delgado

    Jose Delgado lands 6.1 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Bashi

    Austin Bashi eats 2.7 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 KO rate favours Delgado

    Jose Delgado finishes by KO 47% more often

  • 04 Submission rate favours Bashi

    Austin Bashi taps opponents 41% more often

  • 05 Striking accuracy favours Delgado

    Jose Delgado is 18% more accurate on the feet

  • 06 Takedown volume favours Bashi

    Austin Bashi hits 0.15 more takedowns per minute

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Alvin Hines
United States 7-1-0 MMA Orthodox 1 loss
27% | 73%
Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 19 Jul · 7:00 AM AEST
Allen Frye Jr.
United States 6-1-0 nan 1 loss
Breakdown
Model Favourite
Allen Frye Jr.
73.4 %
050100
90% CI · 43 – 98 · σ 0.059 · High
Why this pick
  • Allen Frye Jr. eats 3.2 fewer strikes per minute
  • Allen Frye Jr. controls 52% more cage time
  • Allen Frye Jr. is 7% more accurate on the feet
  • the case against Alvin Hines lands 3.3 more sig strikes per minute
  • Alvin Hines out-volumes opponents at 5.5 sig/min vs Allen Frye Jr.'s 2.2
Method Breakdown
Hines Jr.
KO/TKO 11.2
42.3
Submission 4.4
4.2
Decision 11.1
26.9
Finish Distribution · By Round
35
R1
17
R2
10
R3
38
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Hines Jr.
Str/min 5.5
2.2
Sig Acc 32%
38%
Str Def 38%
36%
TD/min 0.07
0.00
Finish 0%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
37
36
HinesJr.
Combined 66 17–135
Takedowns
0.3
0.1
HinesJr.
Combined 0.8 0.0–4.3
Fight length
Expected 1.8 of 3 rounds 38% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Jr.

    Allen Frye Jr. eats 3.2 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Hines

    Alvin Hines lands 3.3 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Control time favours Jr.

    Allen Frye Jr. controls 52% more cage time

  • 04 Takedown volume favours Hines

    Alvin Hines hits 0.07 more takedowns per minute

  • 05 Striking accuracy favours Jr.

    Allen Frye Jr. is 7% more accurate on the feet

  • 06 Striking defence favours Hines

    Alvin Hines avoids 2% more incoming strikes

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Felipe Franco
Brazil 10-1-0 MMA Orthodox 1 loss
48% | 52%
Light Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 19 Jul · 7:00 AM AEST
LJ
Brazil 1-0-0 nan
Breakdown
Model Favourite
Levi Rodrigues Jr.
52.4 %
050100
90% CI · 22 – 82 · σ 0.092 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Levi Rodrigues Jr. comes in on a 1-fight cleaner skid
  • Felipe Franco has never been finished in 1 fights
Method Breakdown
Franco Jr.
KO/TKO 16.8
19.3
Submission 11.8
4.1
Decision 19.0
29.1
Finish Distribution · By Round
29
R1
15
R2
8
R3
48
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Franco Jr.
Str/min 1.1
0.0
Sig Acc 27%
0%
Str Def 41%
0%
TD/min 0.00
0.00
Finish 0%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
25
29
FrancoJr.
Combined 53 15–126
Takedowns
0.1
0.1
FrancoJr.
Combined 1.3 0.0–4.6
Fight length
Expected 2.0 of 3 rounds 48% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Loss streak favours Jr.

    Levi Rodrigues Jr. comes in on a 1-fight cleaner skid

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Alden Coria
United States 12-3-0 Freestyle Orthodox 2-fight win streak
87% | 13%
Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 19 Jul · 7:00 AM AEST
Stewart Nicoll
8-3-0 Grappler Orthodox 3-fight loss streak
Breakdown
Model Favourite
Alden Coria
86.7 %
050100
90% CI · 57 – 98 · σ 0.090 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Alden Coria eats 3.4 fewer strikes per minute
  • Alden Coria rides a 2-fight longer win streak
  • Alden Coria lands 0.7 more sig strikes per minute
  • the case against Stewart Nicoll finishes 18% more of their wins
  • Alden Coria has never been finished in 2 fights
Method Breakdown
Coria Nicoll
KO/TKO 18.5
0.1
Submission 9.6
3.1
Decision 58.6
10.2
Finish Distribution · By Round
17
R1
10
R2
4
R3
69
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Coria Nicoll
Str/min 3.8
3.2
Sig Acc 37%
35%
Str Def 70%
50%
TD/min 0.10
0.10
Finish 41%
59%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
44
29
CoriaNicoll
Combined 76 15–130
Takedowns
0.9
0.1
CoriaNicoll
Combined 1.6 0.0–4.5
Fight length
Expected 2.4 of 3 rounds 69% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Coria

    Alden Coria eats 3.4 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Coria

    Alden Coria rides a 2-fight longer win streak

  • 03 Striking volume favours Coria

    Alden Coria lands 0.7 more sig strikes per minute

  • 04 Takedown defence favours Coria

    Alden Coria stuffs 43% more incoming takedowns

  • 05 Finish rate favours Nicoll

    Stewart Nicoll finishes 18% more of their wins

  • 06 Loss streak favours Coria

    Alden Coria comes in on a 3-fight cleaner skid

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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