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⟁ Past Events — Predictions vs. Actual Results
46 of 58
confident picks landed — when the model gives a fighter 70%+ it has been right 79% of the time
10–19
betting record with the same amount on every recommended bet (-11.1 units — early days, small sample)
Bankroll curve
−$607
2026-06-15
peak $139 · trough $-662
2026-08-15
UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman 8/10 · 80%
2026-07-18
Model Prediction
Kamaru Usman
30%
KO 12%·
Sub 1%·
Dec 17%
Dricus Du Plessis
✓ won
70%
KO 23%·
Sub 35%·
Dec 12%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Kamaru Usman wins value | 30% | 14.00 | missed |
| Finish round Finish in Round 1 | 28% | — | missed |
18-9-0
Winner
Christian Leroy Duncan
Decision (U) · R3
✓ predicted
14-2-0
Model Prediction
Jared Cannonier
12%
KO 4%·
Sub 1%·
Dec 7%
Christian Leroy Duncan
✓ won
88%
KO 28%·
Sub 8%·
Dec 52%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Christian Leroy Duncan wins | 88% | 1.08 | ✓ predicted |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 59% | — | ✓ predicted |
Model Prediction
Chase Hooper
✓ won
99%
KO 23%·
Sub 41%·
Dec 35%
Mitch Ramirez
1%
KO 0%·
Sub 0%·
Dec 1%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Chase Hooper wins value | 99% | 1.27 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Chase Hooper wins by Submission | 41% | 2.40 | ✓ predicted |
| Finish round Finish in Round 1 | 35% | — | ✓ predicted |
Model Prediction
Tabatha Ricci
31%
KO 0%·
Sub 7%·
Dec 24%
Fatima Kline
✓ won
69%
KO 10%·
Sub 5%·
Dec 54%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Fatima Kline wins | 69% | 1.19 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Fatima Kline wins by Decision | 54% | 1.63 | ✓ predicted |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 78% | 1.33 | ✓ predicted |
Model Prediction
Alberto Montes
38%
KO 9%·
Sub 11%·
Dec 18%
Tommy McMillen
✓ won
62%
KO 32%·
Sub 5%·
Dec 26%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Tommy McMillen wins | 62% | 1.18 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Tommy McMillen wins by KO/TKO | 32% | 1.86 | ✓ predicted |
| Finish round Finish in Round 1 | 35% | — | missed |
Model Prediction dead even — no pick
Austin Bashi
50%
KO 9%·
Sub 11%·
Dec 31%
Jose Delgado
✓ won
50%
KO 20%·
Sub 5%·
Dec 25%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Austin Bashi wins | 50% | 1.72 | missed |
| Method Austin Bashi wins by Decision | 31% | 2.95 | missed |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 56% | 2.04 | ✓ predicted |
10-2-0
Winner
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani
Decision (U) · R3
✓ predicted
13-2-0
Model Prediction
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani
✓ won
52%
KO 15%·
Sub 14%·
Dec 22%
Seokhyeon Ko
48%
KO 8%·
Sub 8%·
Dec 32%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani wins value | 52% | 2.52 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani wins by Decision | 22% | 5.70 | ✓ predicted |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 54% | 1.74 | ✓ predicted |
Model Prediction
Felipe Franco
✓ won
48%
KO 14%·
Sub 13%·
Dec 21%
Levi Rodrigues Jr.
52%
KO 19%·
Sub 7%·
Dec 26%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Levi Rodrigues Jr. wins | 52% | 1.61 | missed |
| Method Levi Rodrigues Jr. wins by Decision value | 26% | 10.00 | missed |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 46% | 4.60 | missed |
Model Prediction dead even — no pick
Damien Anderson
50%
KO 10%·
Sub 13%·
Dec 26%
Ezra Elliott
✓ won
50%
KO 9%·
Sub 13%·
Dec 28%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Ezra Elliott wins | 50% | 1.94 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Ezra Elliott wins by Decision value | 28% | 5.75 | ✓ predicted |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 54% | 2.76 | ✓ predicted |
Model Prediction
Alden Coria
✓ won
86%
KO 22%·
Sub 7%·
Dec 57%
Stewart Nicoll
14%
KO 0%·
Sub 3%·
Dec 11%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Alden Coria wins | 86% | 1.08 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Alden Coria wins by Decision value | 57% | 4.00 | ✓ predicted |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 67% | 3.14 | ✓ predicted |
Model Prediction
Alvin Hines
69%
KO 43%·
Sub 10%·
Dec 16%
RJ Harris
✓ won
31%
KO 7%·
Sub 8%·
Dec 16%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Alvin Hines wins value | 69% | 1.84 | missed |
| Method Alvin Hines wins by KO/TKO value | 43% | 3.20 | missed |
| Finish round Finish in Round 1 | 37% | — | ✓ predicted |
Model Prediction
no prediction data for this bout
Model Prediction
Dione Barbosa
✓ won
73%
KO 16%·
Sub 25%·
Dec 33%
Anna Melisano
27%
KO 2%·
Sub 5%·
Dec 21%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Dione Barbosa wins | 73% | 1.12 | ✓ predicted |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 53% | — | missed |