Updated 2026-10-17 19:21 AEST
11
Bouts
1
Events
5
Value Bets
New here? How to read these predictions
Win probability
Our model's estimate that a fighter wins — e.g. 72% means we'd expect them to win roughly 7 of 10 times.
Confidence interval (CI)
The range the true probability likely falls in. Wider = less certain. A pick'em fight has a wide band; a clear favourite a narrow one.
Edge
How much higher our probability is than the bookmaker's implied odds. Positive edge = we think it's underpriced.
EV (expected value)
Average return if you placed the bet many times. +15% EV means about 15c profit per $1 staked, on average.
Risk tiers
Conservative leans to safe favourites, Balanced blends, Aggressive chases bigger-odds longshots. Pick what suits you.
Edge badges
Strong / Solid / Slight edge rank how much value the model sees — and how big a stake it suggests. They're not a promise the bet wins.

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Alexander Volkanovski
Volkanovski
Title · Main Event
60%
Model Leans Evloev
2026-10-25
Movsar Evloev
Evloev
UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev
2026
25
OCT
⚡ Next Event

UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev

Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
11
Bouts
Alexander Volkanovski
C Alexander Volkanovski
Australia 28-4-0 Orthodox 2-fight win streak
SB 1.94
40% | 60%
Featherweight 5 rds
⏱ Sun 25 Oct · 6:30 AM AEST
Movsar Evloev
Movsar Evloev
Russia 20-0-0 Freestyle Orthodox 10-fight win streak
SB 1.85
Model Favourite
Movsar Evloev
60.4 %
Market · 51% on Evloev · Moirai +9 pts
Confidence · High · sub-models agree closely
Why this pick
  • Movsar Evloev rides a 8-fight longer win streak
  • Movsar Evloev eats 0.5 fewer strikes per minute
  • Movsar Evloev hits 0.21 more takedowns per minute
  • the case against Alexander Volkanovski lands 2.1 more sig strikes per minute
  • Movsar Evloev rides a 10-fight win streak (Alexander Volkanovski: 2)
Method Breakdown
Volkanovski Evloev
KO/TKO 16.3
16.0
Submission 3.4
8.6
Decision 19.9
35.7
Finish Distribution · By Round
11
R1
12
R2
13
R3
5
R4
3
R5
56
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Volkanovski Evloev
Str/min 6.0
3.9
Sig Acc 57%
48%
Str Def 59%
61%
TD/min 0.11
0.32
Finish 39%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
58
65
VolkanovskiEvloev
Combined 148 22–235
Takedowns
0.5
1.9
VolkanovskiEvloev
Combined 2.6 0.0–6.5
Fight length
Expected 3.7 of 5 rounds 56% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Evloev

    Movsar Evloev rides a 8-fight longer win streak

  • 02 Striking volume favours Volkanovski

    Alexander Volkanovski lands 2.1 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Strikes absorbed favours Evloev

    Movsar Evloev eats 0.5 fewer strikes per minute

  • 04 Finish rate favours Volkanovski

    Alexander Volkanovski finishes 39% of fights, Movsar Evloev 0%

  • 05 KO rate favours Volkanovski

    Alexander Volkanovski wins by knockout in 39% of fights, Movsar Evloev in 0%

  • 06 Takedown volume favours Evloev

    Movsar Evloev hits 0.21 more takedowns per minute

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 73 markets analysed
No markets passed the value gate. 73 markets analysed.
Merab Dvalishvili
Merab Dvalishvili
Georgia 21-5-0 Freestyle Orthodox 1 loss
SB 2.40
38% | 62%
Bantamweight 5 rds
⏱ Sun 25 Oct · 5:45 AM AEST
Petr Yan
C Petr Yan
Russia 20-5-0 Boxing Switch Stance 4-fight win streak
SB 1.55
Model Favourite
Petr Yan
61.9 %
Market · 61% on Yan · Moirai +1 pts
Confidence · Medium · sub-models broadly agree
Why this pick
  • Petr Yan rides a 4-fight longer win streak
  • Petr Yan lands 0.8 more sig strikes per minute
  • Petr Yan wins by knockout in 27% of fights, Merab Dvalishvili in 6%
  • the case against Merab Dvalishvili eats 1.4 fewer strikes per minute
  • Petr Yan rides a 4-fight win streak (Merab Dvalishvili: 0)
Method Breakdown
Dvalishvili Yan
KO/TKO 6.5
19.8
Submission 6.3
1.2
Decision 25.3
40.9
Finish Distribution · By Round
9
R1
10
R2
11
R3
2
R4
3
R5
66
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Dvalishvili Yan
Str/min 4.4
5.2
Sig Acc 42%
54%
Str Def 54%
60%
TD/min 0.40
0.10
Finish 18%
27%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
72
64
DvalishviliYan
Combined 160 22–268
Takedowns
1.8
0.1
DvalishviliYan
Combined 2.3 0.0–6.8
Fight length
Expected 4.0 of 5 rounds 66% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Dvalishvili

    Merab Dvalishvili eats 1.4 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Yan

    Petr Yan rides a 4-fight longer win streak

  • 03 Takedown volume favours Dvalishvili

    Merab Dvalishvili hits 0.30 more takedowns per minute

  • 04 Striking volume favours Yan

    Petr Yan lands 0.8 more sig strikes per minute

  • 05 KO rate favours Yan

    Petr Yan wins by knockout in 27% of fights, Merab Dvalishvili in 6%

  • 06 Striking accuracy favours Yan

    Petr Yan lands 54% of significant strikes thrown, Merab Dvalishvili 42%

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 74 markets analysed
No markets passed the value gate. 74 markets analysed.
Ramazan Temirov
Ramazan Temirov
Uzbekistan 19-3-0 Striker Orthodox 3-fight win streak
75% | 25%
Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 25 Oct · 4:00 AM AEST
LK
Lone'er Kavanagh
3-2-0 Orthodox 1 loss
Model Favourite
Ramazan Temirov
75.5 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Ramazan Temirov rides a 3-fight longer win streak
  • Ramazan Temirov wins by knockout in 67% of fights, Lone'er Kavanagh in 20%
  • Ramazan Temirov eats 0.3 fewer strikes per minute
  • layoff Temirov hasn't fought since Mar 2025 — ring rust is hard to price, so the model widens its uncertainty here
  • Ramazan Temirov rides a 3-fight win streak (Lone'er Kavanagh: 0)
Method Breakdown
Temirov Kavanagh
KO/TKO 40.2
6.9
Submission 1.7
2.7
Decision 33.6
14.9
Finish Distribution · By Round
29
R1
15
R2
7
R3
49
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Temirov Kavanagh
Str/min 4.7
4.1
Sig Acc 41%
50%
Str Def 62%
54%
TD/min 0.05
0.08
Finish 67%
40%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
49
43
TemirovKavanagh
Combined 100 19–148
Takedowns
0.0
0.0
TemirovKavanagh
Combined 0.6 0.0–3.9
Fight length
Expected 2.0 of 3 rounds 49% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Temirov

    Ramazan Temirov rides a 3-fight longer win streak

  • 02 KO rate favours Temirov

    Ramazan Temirov wins by knockout in 67% of fights, Lone'er Kavanagh in 20%

  • 03 Strikes absorbed favours Temirov

    Ramazan Temirov eats 0.3 fewer strikes per minute

  • 04 Finish rate favours Temirov

    Ramazan Temirov finishes 67% of fights, Lone'er Kavanagh 40%

  • 05 Striking volume favours Temirov

    Ramazan Temirov lands 0.6 more sig strikes per minute

  • 06 Takedown defence favours Temirov

    Ramazan Temirov stops 100% of takedown attempts, Lone'er Kavanagh 83%

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
Sportsbet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Alexander Volkov
Alexander Volkov
Russia 40-11-0 Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 2-fight win streak
72% | 28%
Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 25 Oct · 4:00 AM AEST
Rizvan Kuniev
Rizvan Kuniev
Russia 12-3-1 Orthodox 2-fight win streak
Model Favourite
Alexander Volkov
72.5 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Alexander Volkov lands 1.3 more sig strikes per minute
  • Alexander Volkov finishes 47% of fights, Rizvan Kuniev 33%
  • Alexander Volkov lands 58% of significant strikes thrown, Rizvan Kuniev 48%
  • the case against Rizvan Kuniev eats 0.5 fewer strikes per minute
  • Alexander Volkov has a 16-fight UFC experience edge (19 vs 3)
Method Breakdown
Volkov Kuniev
KO/TKO 31.9
10.6
Submission 3.9
0.9
Decision 36.6
16.0
Finish Distribution · By Round
25
R1
14
R2
8
R3
53
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Volkov Kuniev
Str/min 5.1
3.7
Sig Acc 58%
48%
Str Def 54%
48%
TD/min 0.04
0.00
Finish 47%
33%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
55
45
VolkovKuniev
Combined 106 21–158
Takedowns
0.1
0.2
VolkovKuniev
Combined 0.7 0.0–4.0
Fight length
Expected 2.1 of 3 rounds 53% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Volkov

    Alexander Volkov lands 1.3 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Kuniev

    Rizvan Kuniev eats 0.5 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 Finish rate favours Volkov

    Alexander Volkov finishes 47% of fights, Rizvan Kuniev 33%

  • 04 Takedown defence favours Kuniev

    Rizvan Kuniev stops 92% of takedown attempts, Alexander Volkov 69%

  • 05 Striking accuracy favours Volkov

    Alexander Volkov lands 58% of significant strikes thrown, Rizvan Kuniev 48%

  • 06 Control time favours Kuniev

    Rizvan Kuniev spends 23% of fight time in control, Alexander Volkov 9%

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
Sportsbet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Aaron Pico
Aaron Pico
United States 14-5-0 Boxing Orthodox 1 win
31% | 69%
Featherweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 25 Oct · 4:00 AM AEST
LK
Losene Keita
16-2-0 MMA Orthodox 1 win
Model Favourite
Losene Keita
69.0 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Losene Keita avoids 65% of strikes thrown at them, Aaron Pico 45%
  • Losene Keita has been knocked out in 0% of fights, Aaron Pico in 50%
  • the case against Aaron Pico eats 0.9 fewer strikes per minute
  • Aaron Pico out-volumes opponents at 6.2 sig/min vs Losene Keita's 3.9
Method Breakdown
Pico Keita
KO/TKO 8.1
46.5
Submission 2.5
6.5
Decision 20.4
16.0
Finish Distribution · By Round
37
R1
18
R2
8
R3
36
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Pico Keita
Str/min 6.2
3.9
Sig Acc 54%
47%
Str Def 45%
65%
TD/min 0.44
0.00
Finish 50%
50%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
42
38
PicoKeita
Combined 85 18–155
Takedowns
1.0
0.0
PicoKeita
Combined 1.3 0.0–5.7
Fight length
Expected 1.8 of 3 rounds 36% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Pico

    Aaron Pico eats 0.9 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Pico

    Aaron Pico lands 2.2 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Takedown volume favours Pico

    Aaron Pico hits 0.44 more takedowns per minute

  • 04 Control time favours Pico

    Aaron Pico spends 30% of fight time in control, Losene Keita 2%

  • 05 Striking defence favours Keita

    Losene Keita avoids 65% of strikes thrown at them, Aaron Pico 45%

  • 06 KO durability favours Keita

    Losene Keita has been knocked out in 0% of fights, Aaron Pico in 50%

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
Sportsbet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Azamat Murzakanov
Azamat Murzakanov
Russia 16-1-0 MMA Southpaw 1 loss
44% | 56%
Light Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 25 Oct · 2:00 AM AEST
Dominick Reyes
Dominick Reyes
United States 16-5-0 Kickboxer Southpaw 1 win
Model Favourite
Dominick Reyes
56.2 %
Confidence · Medium · sub-models broadly agree
Why this pick
  • Dominick Reyes rides a 1-fight longer win streak
  • Dominick Reyes lands 0.5 more sig strikes per minute
  • Dominick Reyes wins by submission in 7% of fights, Azamat Murzakanov in 0%
  • the case against Azamat Murzakanov wins by knockout in 86% of fights, Dominick Reyes in 67%
  • Azamat Murzakanov KOs 86% of opponents — Dominick Reyes has been KO'd in 27% of losses
Method Breakdown
Murzakanov Reyes
KO/TKO 24.9
31.0
Submission 1.0
5.7
Decision 17.8
19.5
Finish Distribution · By Round
34
R1
19
R2
10
R3
37
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Murzakanov Reyes
Str/min 4.5
5.0
Sig Acc 56%
54%
Str Def 56%
50%
TD/min 0.05
0.02
Finish 86%
73%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
37
32
MurzakanovReyes
Combined 73 14–129
Takedowns
0.1
0.1
MurzakanovReyes
Combined 0.3 0.0–3.9
Fight length
Expected 1.8 of 3 rounds 37% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Reyes

    Dominick Reyes rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 02 Striking volume favours Reyes

    Dominick Reyes lands 0.5 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 KO rate favours Murzakanov

    Azamat Murzakanov wins by knockout in 86% of fights, Dominick Reyes in 67%

  • 04 Strikes absorbed favours Murzakanov

    Azamat Murzakanov eats 0.1 fewer strikes per minute

  • 05 Finish rate favours Murzakanov

    Azamat Murzakanov finishes 86% of fights, Dominick Reyes 73%

  • 06 Submission rate favours Reyes

    Dominick Reyes wins by submission in 7% of fights, Azamat Murzakanov in 0%

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
Sportsbet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Nikita Krylov
Nikita Krylov
Ukraine 31-11-0 Karate Orthodox 1 loss
15% | 85%
Light Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 25 Oct · 2:00 AM AEST
AY
Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev
3-0-0 Orthodox 3-fight win streak
Model Favourite
Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev
85.2 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev eats 0.7 fewer strikes per minute
  • Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev rides a 3-fight longer win streak
  • Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev hits 0.62 more takedowns per minute
  • Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev rides a 3-fight win streak (Nikita Krylov: 0)
Method Breakdown
Krylov Yakhyaev
KO/TKO 4.1
28.8
Submission 5.9
38.2
Decision 4.8
18.1
Finish Distribution · By Round
42
R1
24
R2
11
R3
23
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Krylov Yakhyaev
Str/min 4.4
4.9
Sig Acc 54%
58%
Str Def 48%
58%
TD/min 0.15
0.77
Finish 82%
100%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
25
33
KrylovYakhyaev
Combined 37 12–112
Takedowns
0.2
1.3
KrylovYakhyaev
Combined 1.9 0.0–5.5
Fight length
Expected 1.5 of 3 rounds 23% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Yakhyaev

    Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev eats 0.7 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Yakhyaev

    Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev rides a 3-fight longer win streak

  • 03 Takedown volume favours Yakhyaev

    Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev hits 0.62 more takedowns per minute

  • 04 Submission rate favours Yakhyaev

    Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev wins by submission in 67% of fights, Nikita Krylov in 23%

  • 05 Finish rate favours Yakhyaev

    Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev finishes 100% of fights, Nikita Krylov 82%

  • 06 Striking volume favours Yakhyaev

    Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev lands 0.5 more sig strikes per minute

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
Sportsbet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Abus Magomedov
Abus Magomedov
Russia 28-7-1 MMA Orthodox 1 win
39% | 61%
Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 25 Oct · 2:00 AM AEST
CR
Cam Rowston
Australia 15-3-0 Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 3-fight win streak
Model Favourite
Cam Rowston
61.0 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Cam Rowston eats 1.4 fewer strikes per minute
  • Cam Rowston lands 2.5 more sig strikes per minute
  • Cam Rowston rides a 2-fight longer win streak
  • the case against Abus Magomedov wins by submission in 25% of fights, Cam Rowston in 0%
  • Cam Rowston out-volumes opponents at 5.5 sig/min vs Abus Magomedov's 3.1
Method Breakdown
Magomedov Rowston
KO/TKO 12.5
27.3
Submission 8.6
10.0
Decision 17.8
23.7
Finish Distribution · By Round
32
R1
19
R2
8
R3
42
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Magomedov Rowston
Str/min 3.1
5.5
Sig Acc 49%
49%
Str Def 56%
54%
TD/min 0.17
0.11
Finish 62%
67%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
26
30
MagomedovRowston
Combined 68 18–117
Takedowns
0.5
0.3
MagomedovRowston
Combined 1.5 0.0–4.5
Fight length
Expected 1.9 of 3 rounds 42% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Rowston

    Cam Rowston eats 1.4 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Rowston

    Cam Rowston lands 2.5 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Win streak favours Rowston

    Cam Rowston rides a 2-fight longer win streak

  • 04 KO rate favours Rowston

    Cam Rowston wins by knockout in 67% of fights, Abus Magomedov in 25%

  • 05 Submission rate favours Magomedov

    Abus Magomedov wins by submission in 25% of fights, Cam Rowston in 0%

  • 06 Control time favours Rowston

    Cam Rowston spends 48% of fight time in control, Abus Magomedov 26%

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
Sportsbet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Grant Dawson
Grant Dawson
United States 24-3-1 Switch Stance 1 win
47% | 53%
Lightweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 25 Oct · 2:00 AM AEST
Nurullo Aliev
Nurullo Aliev
11-0-0 Wrestling Orthodox 4-fight win streak
Model Favourite
Nurullo Aliev
53.3 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Nurullo Aliev rides a 3-fight longer win streak
  • Nurullo Aliev eats 0.5 fewer strikes per minute
  • the case against Grant Dawson finishes 60% of fights, Nurullo Aliev 0%
  • Nurullo Aliev rides a 4-fight win streak (Grant Dawson: 1)
Method Breakdown
Dawson Aliev
KO/TKO 9.3
11.0
Submission 20.4
1.2
Decision 17.0
41.1
Finish Distribution · By Round
18
R1
16
R2
8
R3
58
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Dawson Aliev
Str/min 3.1
2.0
Sig Acc 51%
42%
Str Def 45%
56%
TD/min 0.24
0.23
Finish 60%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
24
34
DawsonAliev
Combined 65 19–114
Takedowns
1.0
1.1
DawsonAliev
Combined 2.1 0.0–5.6
Fight length
Expected 2.3 of 3 rounds 58% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Aliev

    Nurullo Aliev rides a 3-fight longer win streak

  • 02 Finish rate favours Dawson

    Grant Dawson finishes 60% of fights, Nurullo Aliev 0%

  • 03 Strikes absorbed favours Aliev

    Nurullo Aliev eats 0.5 fewer strikes per minute

  • 04 Striking volume favours Dawson

    Grant Dawson lands 1.1 more sig strikes per minute

  • 05 Submission rate favours Dawson

    Grant Dawson wins by submission in 33% of fights, Nurullo Aliev in 0%

  • 06 KO rate favours Dawson

    Grant Dawson wins by knockout in 27% of fights, Nurullo Aliev in 0%

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
Sportsbet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Colby Thicknesse
Colby Thicknesse
Australia 9-1-0 Freestyle Orthodox 2-fight win streak
61% | 39%
Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 25 Oct · 12:00 AM AEST
AC
Asaf Chopurov
Georgia 0-0-0
Model Favourite
Colby Thicknesse
60.8 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Colby Thicknesse is favoured at 61% — fight-history features sparse
  • Asaf Chopurov has no UFC fights — too little to compare fight stats, so this pick leans on age, size and pre-UFC record
Method Breakdown
Thicknesse Chopurov
KO/TKO 13.7
9.9
Submission 17.2
9.7
Decision 29.9
19.6
Finish Distribution · By Round
27
R1
15
R2
8
R3
50
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Thicknesse Chopurov
Str/min 3.2
0.0
Sig Acc 41%
0%
Str Def 54%
0%
TD/min 0.04
0.00
Finish 0%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
36
26
ThicknesseChopurov
Combined 63 17–132
Takedowns
0.3
0.2
ThicknesseChopurov
Combined 1.9 0.0–4.5
Fight length
Expected 2.1 of 3 rounds 50% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Model lean favours Thicknesse

    Colby Thicknesse is favoured at 61% — fight-history features sparse

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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AV
Abubakar Vagaev
Russia 1 win
20% | 80%
Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 25 Oct · 12:00 AM AEST
Jacob Malkoun
Jacob Malkoun
Australia 10-3-0 MMA Orthodox 4-fight win streak
Model Favourite
Jacob Malkoun
80.0 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Jacob Malkoun is favoured at 80% — fight-history features sparse
  • Abubakar Vagaev has 1 UFC fight — too little to compare fight stats, so this pick leans on age, size and pre-UFC record
Method Breakdown
Vagaev Malkoun
KO/TKO 2.1
25.4
Submission 2.4
1.4
Decision 15.5
53.1
Finish Distribution · By Round
14
R1
11
R2
7
R3
69
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Vagaev Malkoun
Str/min 2.2
4.1
Sig Acc 40%
56%
Str Def 60%
55%
TD/min 0.23
0.36
Finish 14%
25%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
21
39
VagaevMalkoun
Combined 65 20–119
Takedowns
0.7
1.5
VagaevMalkoun
Combined 2.6 0.0–5.4
Fight length
Expected 2.5 of 3 rounds 69% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Model lean favours Malkoun

    Jacob Malkoun is favoured at 80% — fight-history features sparse

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
Sportsbet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.