Updated 2026-08-16 15:18 AEST
9
Bouts
0
Events
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Win probability
Our model's estimate that a fighter wins — e.g. 72% means we'd expect them to win roughly 7 of 10 times.
Confidence interval (CI)
The range the true probability likely falls in. Wider = less certain. A pick'em fight has a wide band; a clear favourite a narrow one.
Edge
How much higher our probability is than the bookmaker's implied odds. Positive edge = we think it's underpriced.
EV (expected value)
Average return if you placed the bet many times. +15% EV means about 15c profit per $1 staked, on average.
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Alexander Volkanovski
Volkanovski
Title · Main Event
65%
Model Leans Evloev
2026-10-24
Movsar Evloev
Evloev
UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev
2026
24
OCT
⚡ Next Event

UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev

Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
9
Bouts
Alexander Volkanovski
C Alexander Volkanovski
Australia 28-4-0 Orthodox 2-fight win streak
35% | 65%
Featherweight 5 rds
⏱ Sun 25 Oct · 4:00 AM AEST
Movsar Evloev
Movsar Evloev
Russia 20-0-0 Freestyle Orthodox 10-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Movsar Evloev
65.4 %
050100
CI · 35 – 95 · σ 0.087 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Movsar Evloev rides a 8-fight longer win streak
  • Movsar Evloev eats 0.5 fewer strikes per minute
  • Movsar Evloev hits 0.21 more takedowns per minute
  • the case against Alexander Volkanovski lands 2.1 more sig strikes per minute
  • Movsar Evloev rides a 10-fight win streak (Alexander Volkanovski: 2)
Method Breakdown
Volkanovski Evloev
KO/TKO 15.2
8.5
Submission 2.1
9.0
Decision 17.2
47.9
Finish Distribution · By Round
7
R1
12
R2
8
R3
4
R4
3
R5
65
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Volkanovski Evloev
Str/min 6.0
3.9
Sig Acc 57%
48%
Str Def 59%
61%
TD/min 0.11
0.32
Finish 39%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
61
63
VolkanovskiEvloev
Combined 146 26–215
Takedowns
0.5
1.8
VolkanovskiEvloev
Combined 2.8 0.0–6.6
Fight length
Expected 4.0 of 5 rounds 65% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Evloev

    Movsar Evloev rides a 8-fight longer win streak

  • 02 Striking volume favours Volkanovski

    Alexander Volkanovski lands 2.1 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Strikes absorbed favours Evloev

    Movsar Evloev eats 0.5 fewer strikes per minute

  • 04 Finish rate favours Volkanovski

    Alexander Volkanovski finishes 39% more of their wins

  • 05 KO rate favours Volkanovski

    Alexander Volkanovski finishes by KO 39% more often

  • 06 Takedown volume favours Evloev

    Movsar Evloev hits 0.21 more takedowns per minute

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Merab Dvalishvili
C Merab Dvalishvili
Georgia 21-5-0 Freestyle Orthodox 1 loss
35% | 65%
Bantamweight 5 rds
⏱ Sun 25 Oct · 4:00 AM AEST
Petr Yan
Petr Yan
Russia 20-5-0 Boxer Switch Stance 4-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Petr Yan
64.9 %
050100
CI · 35 – 95 · σ 0.065 · High
Why this pick
  • Petr Yan rides a 4-fight longer win streak
  • Petr Yan lands 0.8 more sig strikes per minute
  • Petr Yan finishes by KO 21% more often
  • the case against Merab Dvalishvili eats 1.4 fewer strikes per minute
  • Petr Yan rides a 4-fight win streak (Merab Dvalishvili: 0)
Method Breakdown
Dvalishvili Yan
KO/TKO 6.6
25.3
Submission 4.1
2.2
Decision 24.4
37.3
Finish Distribution · By Round
8
R1
14
R2
9
R3
5
R4
3
R5
62
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Dvalishvili Yan
Str/min 4.4
5.2
Sig Acc 42%
54%
Str Def 54%
60%
TD/min 0.40
0.10
Finish 18%
27%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
65
59
DvalishviliYan
Combined 130 25–250
Takedowns
1.9
0.1
DvalishviliYan
Combined 2.2 0.0–7.0
Fight length
Expected 3.9 of 5 rounds 62% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Dvalishvili

    Merab Dvalishvili eats 1.4 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Yan

    Petr Yan rides a 4-fight longer win streak

  • 03 Striking volume favours Yan

    Petr Yan lands 0.8 more sig strikes per minute

  • 04 Takedown volume favours Dvalishvili

    Merab Dvalishvili hits 0.30 more takedowns per minute

  • 05 KO rate favours Yan

    Petr Yan finishes by KO 21% more often

  • 06 Striking accuracy favours Yan

    Petr Yan is 13% more accurate on the feet

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Ramazan Temirov
Ramazan Temirov
Uzbekistan 19-3-0 Striker Orthodox 3-fight win streak
76% | 24%
Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 25 Oct · 4:00 AM AEST
LK
Lone'er Kavanagh
3-2-0 Orthodox 1 loss
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Ramazan Temirov
76.0 %
050100
CI · 46 – 98 · σ 0.076 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Ramazan Temirov rides a 3-fight longer win streak
  • Ramazan Temirov finishes by KO 47% more often
  • Ramazan Temirov finishes 27% more of their wins
  • Ramazan Temirov rides a 3-fight win streak (Lone'er Kavanagh: 0)
Method Breakdown
Temirov Kavanagh
KO/TKO 30.9
6.2
Submission 2.8
3.9
Decision 42.3
13.9
Finish Distribution · By Round
24
R1
12
R2
8
R3
56
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Temirov Kavanagh
Str/min 4.7
4.1
Sig Acc 41%
50%
Str Def 62%
54%
TD/min 0.05
0.08
Finish 67%
40%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
47
42
TemirovKavanagh
Combined 101 22–144
Takedowns
0.0
0.0
TemirovKavanagh
Combined 0.5 0.0–3.9
Fight length
Expected 2.2 of 3 rounds 56% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Temirov

    Ramazan Temirov rides a 3-fight longer win streak

  • 02 KO rate favours Temirov

    Ramazan Temirov finishes by KO 47% more often

  • 03 Finish rate favours Temirov

    Ramazan Temirov finishes 27% more of their wins

  • 04 Striking volume favours Temirov

    Ramazan Temirov lands 0.6 more sig strikes per minute

  • 05 Strikes absorbed favours Temirov

    Ramazan Temirov eats 0.3 fewer strikes per minute

  • 06 Takedown defence favours Temirov

    Ramazan Temirov stuffs 17% more incoming takedowns

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Alexander Volkov
Alexander Volkov
Russia 40-11-0 Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 2-fight win streak
69% | 31%
Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 25 Oct · 4:00 AM AEST
Rizvan Kuniev
Rizvan Kuniev
Russia 12-3-1 Orthodox 2-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Alexander Volkov
69.3 %
050100
CI · 39 – 98 · σ 0.055 · High
Why this pick
  • Alexander Volkov lands 1.3 more sig strikes per minute
  • Alexander Volkov finishes 14% more of their wins
  • Alexander Volkov is 10% more accurate on the feet
  • the case against Rizvan Kuniev eats 0.5 fewer strikes per minute
  • Alexander Volkov has a 16-fight UFC experience edge (19 vs 3)
Method Breakdown
Volkov Kuniev
KO/TKO 24.6
12.0
Submission 5.1
1.9
Decision 39.6
16.9
Finish Distribution · By Round
23
R1
13
R2
8
R3
56
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Volkov Kuniev
Str/min 5.1
3.7
Sig Acc 58%
48%
Str Def 54%
48%
TD/min 0.04
0.00
Finish 47%
33%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
50
45
VolkovKuniev
Combined 109 22–142
Takedowns
0.1
0.0
VolkovKuniev
Combined 0.7 0.0–4.0
Fight length
Expected 2.2 of 3 rounds 56% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Volkov

    Alexander Volkov lands 1.3 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Kuniev

    Rizvan Kuniev eats 0.5 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 Finish rate favours Volkov

    Alexander Volkov finishes 14% more of their wins

  • 04 Takedown defence favours Kuniev

    Rizvan Kuniev stuffs 23% more incoming takedowns

  • 05 Striking accuracy favours Volkov

    Alexander Volkov is 10% more accurate on the feet

  • 06 Submission rate favours Volkov

    Alexander Volkov taps opponents 5% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Arnold Allen
Arnold Allen
England 20-4-0 MMA Southpaw 1 win
69% | 31%
Featherweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 25 Oct · 4:00 AM AEST
Aaron Pico
Aaron Pico
United States 14-5-0 Boxing Orthodox 1 win
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Arnold Allen
68.8 %
050100
CI · 39 – 98 · σ 0.057 · High
Why this pick
  • Arnold Allen has been KO'd 50% less often
  • Arnold Allen has been finished 50% less often
  • the case against Aaron Pico lands 2.6 more sig strikes per minute
  • Aaron Pico out-volumes opponents at 6.2 sig/min vs Arnold Allen's 3.5
Method Breakdown
Allen Pico
KO/TKO 26.2
13.8
Submission 9.3
2.6
Decision 33.2
14.8
Finish Distribution · By Round
25
R1
16
R2
10
R3
48
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Allen Pico
Str/min 3.5
6.2
Sig Acc 44%
54%
Str Def 60%
45%
TD/min 0.08
0.44
Finish 27%
50%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
40
45
AllenPico
Combined 88 21–140
Takedowns
0.4
1.2
AllenPico
Combined 2.4 0.0–6.6
Fight length
Expected 2.1 of 3 rounds 48% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Pico

    Aaron Pico lands 2.6 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Takedown volume favours Pico

    Aaron Pico hits 0.35 more takedowns per minute

  • 03 KO rate favours Pico

    Aaron Pico finishes by KO 37% more often

  • 04 Finish rate favours Pico

    Aaron Pico finishes 23% more of their wins

  • 05 KO durability favours Allen

    Arnold Allen has been KO'd 50% less often

  • 06 Durability favours Allen

    Arnold Allen has been finished 50% less often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Azamat Murzakanov
Azamat Murzakanov
Russia 16-1-0 MMA Southpaw 1 loss
45% | 55%
Light Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 25 Oct · 12:00 AM AEST
Dominick Reyes
Dominick Reyes
United States 16-5-0 Kickboxer Southpaw 1 win
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Dominick Reyes
54.8 %
050100
CI · 25 – 85 · σ 0.062 · High
Why this pick
  • Dominick Reyes rides a 1-fight longer win streak
  • Dominick Reyes lands 0.5 more sig strikes per minute
  • Dominick Reyes taps opponents 7% more often
  • the case against Azamat Murzakanov finishes by KO 19% more often
  • Azamat Murzakanov KOs 86% of opponents — Dominick Reyes has been KO'd in 27% of losses
Method Breakdown
Murzakanov Reyes
KO/TKO 29.8
33.6
Submission 2.3
3.5
Decision 13.1
17.8
Finish Distribution · By Round
41
R1
20
R2
8
R3
31
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Murzakanov Reyes
Str/min 4.5
5.0
Sig Acc 56%
54%
Str Def 56%
50%
TD/min 0.05
0.02
Finish 86%
73%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
37
37
MurzakanovReyes
Combined 72 17–139
Takedowns
0.0
0.1
MurzakanovReyes
Combined 0.0 0.0–4.0
Fight length
Expected 1.6 of 3 rounds 31% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Reyes

    Dominick Reyes rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 02 Striking volume favours Reyes

    Dominick Reyes lands 0.5 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 KO rate favours Murzakanov

    Azamat Murzakanov finishes by KO 19% more often

  • 04 Finish rate favours Murzakanov

    Azamat Murzakanov finishes 12% more of their wins

  • 05 Strikes absorbed favours Murzakanov

    Azamat Murzakanov eats 0.1 fewer strikes per minute

  • 06 Submission rate favours Reyes

    Dominick Reyes taps opponents 7% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Abus Magomedov
Abus Magomedov
Russia 28-7-1 MMA Orthodox 1 win
38% | 62%
Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 25 Oct · 12:00 AM AEST
CR
Cam Rowston
3-0-0 Orthodox 3-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Cam Rowston
61.5 %
050100
CI · 32 – 92 · σ 0.065 · High
Why this pick
  • Cam Rowston eats 1.4 fewer strikes per minute
  • Cam Rowston lands 2.5 more sig strikes per minute
  • Cam Rowston rides a 2-fight longer win streak
  • the case against Abus Magomedov taps opponents 25% more often
  • Cam Rowston out-volumes opponents at 5.5 sig/min vs Abus Magomedov's 3.1
Method Breakdown
Magomedov Rowston
KO/TKO 14.5
28.3
Submission 7.5
11.2
Decision 16.5
22.1
Finish Distribution · By Round
31
R1
19
R2
11
R3
39
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Magomedov Rowston
Str/min 3.1
5.5
Sig Acc 49%
49%
Str Def 56%
54%
TD/min 0.17
0.11
Finish 62%
67%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
27
31
MagomedovRowston
Combined 62 19–130
Takedowns
0.6
0.2
MagomedovRowston
Combined 1.0 0.0–4.6
Fight length
Expected 1.9 of 3 rounds 39% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Rowston

    Cam Rowston eats 1.4 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Rowston

    Cam Rowston lands 2.5 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Win streak favours Rowston

    Cam Rowston rides a 2-fight longer win streak

  • 04 KO rate favours Rowston

    Cam Rowston finishes by KO 42% more often

  • 05 Submission rate favours Magomedov

    Abus Magomedov taps opponents 25% more often

  • 06 Control time favours Rowston

    Cam Rowston controls 22% more cage time

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Nikita Krylov
Nikita Krylov
Ukraine 31-11-0 Karate Orthodox 1 loss
16% | 84%
3 rds
AY
Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev
3-0-0 Orthodox 3-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev
83.7 %
050100
CI · 54 – 98 · σ 0.077 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev rides a 3-fight longer win streak
  • Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev eats 0.7 fewer strikes per minute
  • Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev hits 0.62 more takedowns per minute
  • Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev rides a 3-fight win streak (Nikita Krylov: 0)
Method Breakdown
Krylov Yakhyaev
KO/TKO 4.5
8.8
Submission 5.6
59.8
Decision 6.1
15.1
Finish Distribution · By Round
46
R1
19
R2
14
R3
21
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Krylov Yakhyaev
Str/min 4.4
4.9
Sig Acc 54%
58%
Str Def 48%
58%
TD/min 0.15
0.77
Finish 82%
100%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
26
29
KrylovYakhyaev
Combined 45 13–110
Takedowns
0.1
1.8
KrylovYakhyaev
Combined 3.1 0.0–5.7
Fight length
Expected 1.5 of 3 rounds 21% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Yakhyaev

    Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev rides a 3-fight longer win streak

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Yakhyaev

    Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev eats 0.7 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 Takedown volume favours Yakhyaev

    Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev hits 0.62 more takedowns per minute

  • 04 Submission rate favours Yakhyaev

    Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev taps opponents 44% more often

  • 05 Striking volume favours Yakhyaev

    Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev lands 0.5 more sig strikes per minute

  • 06 Finish rate favours Yakhyaev

    Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev finishes 18% more of their wins

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Grant Dawson
Grant Dawson
United States 24-3-1 Switch Stance 1 win
50% | 50%
Lightweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 25 Oct · 12:00 AM AEST
Nurullo Aliev
Nurullo Aliev
11-0-0 Wrestling Orthodox 4-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Grant Dawson
50.4 %
050100
CI · 20 – 80 · σ 0.075 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Grant Dawson finishes 60% more of their wins
  • Grant Dawson lands 1.1 more sig strikes per minute
  • Grant Dawson taps opponents 33% more often
  • the case against Nurullo Aliev rides a 3-fight longer win streak
  • Nurullo Aliev rides a 4-fight win streak (Grant Dawson: 1)
Method Breakdown
Dawson Aliev
KO/TKO 11.4
14.8
Submission 20.3
2.8
Decision 18.7
31.9
Finish Distribution · By Round
23
R1
16
R2
10
R3
51
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Dawson Aliev
Str/min 3.1
2.0
Sig Acc 51%
42%
Str Def 45%
56%
TD/min 0.24
0.23
Finish 60%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
26
32
DawsonAliev
Combined 64 22–107
Takedowns
0.8
0.9
DawsonAliev
Combined 2.2 0.0–5.3
Fight length
Expected 2.1 of 3 rounds 51% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Aliev

    Nurullo Aliev rides a 3-fight longer win streak

  • 02 Finish rate favours Dawson

    Grant Dawson finishes 60% more of their wins

  • 03 Striking volume favours Dawson

    Grant Dawson lands 1.1 more sig strikes per minute

  • 04 Strikes absorbed favours Aliev

    Nurullo Aliev eats 0.5 fewer strikes per minute

  • 05 Submission rate favours Dawson

    Grant Dawson taps opponents 33% more often

  • 06 KO rate favours Dawson

    Grant Dawson finishes by KO 27% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.