Updated 2026-09-20 22:31 AEST
11
Bouts
0
Events
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Win probability
Our model's estimate that a fighter wins — e.g. 72% means we'd expect them to win roughly 7 of 10 times.
Confidence interval (CI)
The range the true probability likely falls in. Wider = less certain. A pick'em fight has a wide band; a clear favourite a narrow one.
Edge
How much higher our probability is than the bookmaker's implied odds. Positive edge = we think it's underpriced.
EV (expected value)
Average return if you placed the bet many times. +15% EV means about 15c profit per $1 staked, on average.
Risk tiers
Conservative leans to safe favourites, Balanced blends, Aggressive chases bigger-odds longshots. Pick what suits you.
Edge badges
Strong / Solid / Slight edge rank how much value the model sees — and how big a stake it suggests. They're not a promise the bet wins.

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Raoni Barcelos
Barcelos
Main Event
61%
Model Leans Jr.
2026-09-26
Raul Rosas Jr.
Jr.
UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos
2026
26
SEP
⚡ Next Event

UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos

Meta APEX, Las Vegas, USA
11
Bouts
Raoni Barcelos
Brazil 21-5-0 Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 5-fight win streak
39% | 61%
Bantamweight 5 rds
⏱ Sun 10:00 AM AEST
Raul Rosas Jr.
United States 13-1-0 Freestyle Switch Stance 5-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Raul Rosas Jr.
61.3 %
050100
CI · 31 – 91 · σ 0.074 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Raul Rosas Jr. eats 2.9 fewer strikes per minute
  • Raul Rosas Jr. hits 0.28 more takedowns per minute
  • Raul Rosas Jr. taps opponents 15% more often
  • the case against Raoni Barcelos lands 3.3 more sig strikes per minute
  • Raoni Barcelos out-volumes opponents at 4.7 sig/min vs Raul Rosas Jr.'s 1.3
Method Breakdown
Barcelos Jr.
KO/TKO 11.1
8.8
Submission 3.9
27.3
Decision 23.7
25.2
Finish Distribution · By Round
23
R1
13
R2
8
R3
5
R4
2
R5
49
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Barcelos Jr.
Str/min 4.7
1.3
Sig Acc 52%
41%
Str Def 61%
55%
TD/min 0.17
0.45
Finish 33%
43%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
59
37
BarcelosJr.
Combined 84 17–141
Takedowns
0.7
1.4
BarcelosJr.
Combined 2.8 0.0–6.8
Fight length
Expected 3.2 of 5 rounds 49% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Jr.

    Raul Rosas Jr. eats 2.9 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Barcelos

    Raoni Barcelos lands 3.3 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Takedown defence favours Barcelos

    Raoni Barcelos stuffs 54% more incoming takedowns

  • 04 Takedown volume favours Jr.

    Raul Rosas Jr. hits 0.28 more takedowns per minute

  • 05 Submission rate favours Jr.

    Raul Rosas Jr. taps opponents 15% more often

  • 06 Control time favours Jr.

    Raul Rosas Jr. controls 32% more cage time

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Robert Bryczek
Poland 18-7-0 Boxing Orthodox 1 loss
49% | 51%
Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 10:00 AM AEST
Rodolfo Vieira
Brazil 11-5-0 Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Rodolfo Vieira
50.8 %
050100
CI · 21 – 81 · σ 0.076 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Rodolfo Vieira taps opponents 45% more often
  • Rodolfo Vieira lands 0.6 more sig strikes per minute
  • Rodolfo Vieira finishes 30% more of their wins
  • the case against Robert Bryczek finishes by KO 24% more often
  • Robert Bryczek has never been finished in 3 fights
Method Breakdown
Bryczek Vieira
KO/TKO 25.6
5.1
Submission 5.0
21.1
Decision 18.6
24.6
Finish Distribution · By Round
28
R1
17
R2
12
R3
43
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Bryczek Vieira
Str/min 2.8
3.4
Sig Acc 38%
54%
Str Def 55%
49%
TD/min 0.02
0.19
Finish 33%
64%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
34
36
BryczekVieira
Combined 71 18–136
Takedowns
0.0
1.7
BryczekVieira
Combined 1.6 0.0–4.8
Fight length
Expected 2.0 of 3 rounds 43% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Submission rate favours Vieira

    Rodolfo Vieira taps opponents 45% more often

  • 02 Striking volume favours Vieira

    Rodolfo Vieira lands 0.6 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Finish rate favours Vieira

    Rodolfo Vieira finishes 30% more of their wins

  • 04 Strikes absorbed favours Vieira

    Rodolfo Vieira eats 0.2 fewer strikes per minute

  • 05 KO rate favours Bryczek

    Robert Bryczek finishes by KO 24% more often

  • 06 Takedown volume favours Vieira

    Rodolfo Vieira hits 0.17 more takedowns per minute

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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48% | 52%
Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 10:00 AM AEST
MO
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Mehemmedeli Osmanli
52.0 %
050100
CI · 22 – 82 · σ 0.057 · High
Why this pick
  • Model uncertainty: ±6pp on the win probability
Method Breakdown
Uulu Osmanli
KO/TKO 15.5
17.3
Submission 12.3
11.1
Decision 20.2
23.6
Finish Distribution · By Round
30
R1
17
R2
10
R3
44
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Uulu Osmanli
Str/min 0.0
0.0
Sig Acc 0%
0%
Str Def 0%
0%
TD/min 0.00
0.00
Finish 0%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
25
28
UuluOsmanli
Combined 56 15–138
Takedowns
0.3
0.2
UuluOsmanli
Combined 2.1 0.0–5.2
Fight length
Expected 2.0 of 3 rounds 44% chance it goes the distance
Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
VM
0-1-0 Orthodox
68% | 32%
Women's Strawweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 10:00 AM AEST
MA
0-0-0 nan
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Valesca Machado
68.3 %
050100
CI · 38 – 98 · σ 0.041 · High
Why this pick
  • Valesca Machado is favoured at 68% — fight-history features sparse
  • Model uncertainty: ±4pp on the win probability
Method Breakdown
Machado Amaya
KO/TKO 19.6
4.3
Submission 6.9
6.8
Decision 41.8
20.6
Finish Distribution · By Round
19
R1
11
R2
8
R3
62
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Machado Amaya
Str/min 0.0
0.0
Sig Acc 0%
0%
Str Def 0%
0%
TD/min 0.00
0.00
Finish 0%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
36
30
MachadoAmaya
Combined 63 15–169
Takedowns
0.5
0.1
MachadoAmaya
Combined 1.9 0.0–4.8
Fight length
Expected 2.3 of 3 rounds 62% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Model lean favours Machado

    Valesca Machado is favoured at 68% — fight-history features sparse

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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BH
United States 9-2-0 MMA Orthodox 3-fight win streak
40% | 60%
Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 10:00 AM AEST
Rinya Nakamura
Japan 10-1-0 Wrestler Southpaw 1 win
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Rinya Nakamura
59.8 %
050100
CI · 30 – 90 · σ 0.084 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Rinya Nakamura eats 2.2 fewer strikes per minute
  • Rinya Nakamura stuffs 57% more incoming takedowns
  • Rinya Nakamura finishes by KO 16% more often
  • the case against Brady Hiestand rides a 2-fight longer win streak
  • layoff Hiestand hasn't fought since Jun 2024 — ring rust is hard to price, so the model widens its uncertainty here
  • Brady Hiestand rides a 3-fight win streak (Rinya Nakamura: 1)
Method Breakdown
Hiestand Nakamura
KO/TKO 9.0
12.9
Submission 14.6
4.5
Decision 16.6
42.4
Finish Distribution · By Round
21
R1
13
R2
7
R3
59
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Hiestand Nakamura
Str/min 2.5
2.7
Sig Acc 48%
52%
Str Def 51%
64%
TD/min 0.30
0.15
Finish 47%
40%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
24
34
HiestandNakamura
Combined 62 19–114
Takedowns
1.1
0.9
HiestandNakamura
Combined 2.3 0.0–5.2
Fight length
Expected 2.3 of 3 rounds 59% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Nakamura

    Rinya Nakamura eats 2.2 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Hiestand

    Brady Hiestand rides a 2-fight longer win streak

  • 03 Takedown defence favours Nakamura

    Rinya Nakamura stuffs 57% more incoming takedowns

  • 04 Submission rate favours Hiestand

    Brady Hiestand taps opponents 24% more often

  • 05 Takedown volume favours Hiestand

    Brady Hiestand hits 0.15 more takedowns per minute

  • 06 KO rate favours Nakamura

    Rinya Nakamura finishes by KO 16% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
CE
United States 8-4-0 MMA nan 1 loss
37% | 63%
Light Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 7:00 AM AEST
Rodolfo Bellato
Brazil 13-3-1 MMA Orthodox 1 win
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Rodolfo Bellato
63.5 %
050100
CI · 33 – 93 · σ 0.076 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Rodolfo Bellato lands 3.5 more sig strikes per minute
  • Rodolfo Bellato finishes 40% more of their wins
  • Rodolfo Bellato finishes by KO 40% more often
  • the case against Christian Edwards eats 3.8 fewer strikes per minute
  • Rodolfo Bellato out-volumes opponents at 5.4 sig/min vs Christian Edwards's 1.8
Method Breakdown
Edwards Bellato
KO/TKO 8.6
33.7
Submission 4.8
5.0
Decision 23.1
24.8
Finish Distribution · By Round
28
R1
16
R2
9
R3
48
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Edwards Bellato
Str/min 1.8
5.4
Sig Acc 39%
59%
Str Def 55%
47%
TD/min 0.00
0.11
Finish 0%
40%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
23
36
EdwardsBellato
Combined 62 19–128
Takedowns
0.1
0.5
EdwardsBellato
Combined 1.2 0.0–4.3
Fight length
Expected 2.0 of 3 rounds 48% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Edwards

    Christian Edwards eats 3.8 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Bellato

    Rodolfo Bellato lands 3.5 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Finish rate favours Bellato

    Rodolfo Bellato finishes 40% more of their wins

  • 04 KO rate favours Bellato

    Rodolfo Bellato finishes by KO 40% more often

  • 05 Win streak favours Bellato

    Rodolfo Bellato rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 06 Striking accuracy favours Bellato

    Rodolfo Bellato is 20% more accurate on the feet

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Elves Brener
Brazil 16-6-0 Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 3-fight loss streak
83% | 17%
Lightweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 7:00 AM AEST
Josiah Harrell
United States 11-1-0 Grappler Southpaw 1 loss
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Elves Brener
82.8 %
050100
CI · 53 – 98 · σ 0.080 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Elves Brener eats 5.1 fewer strikes per minute
  • Elves Brener lands 3.0 more sig strikes per minute
  • Elves Brener stuffs 76% more incoming takedowns
  • the case against Josiah Harrell finishes 26% more of their wins
  • Elves Brener out-volumes opponents at 4.8 sig/min vs Josiah Harrell's 1.8
Method Breakdown
Brener Harrell
KO/TKO 45.7
0.1
Submission 6.2
2.7
Decision 30.9
14.4
Finish Distribution · By Round
32
R1
16
R2
6
R3
45
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Brener Harrell
Str/min 4.8
1.8
Sig Acc 48%
38%
Str Def 51%
30%
TD/min 0.07
0.00
Finish 50%
76%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
37
26
BrenerHarrell
Combined 67 16–149
Takedowns
0.7
0.0
BrenerHarrell
Combined 1.5 0.0–4.3
Fight length
Expected 1.9 of 3 rounds 45% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Brener

    Elves Brener eats 5.1 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Brener

    Elves Brener lands 3.0 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Takedown defence favours Brener

    Elves Brener stuffs 76% more incoming takedowns

  • 04 Finish rate favours Harrell

    Josiah Harrell finishes 26% more of their wins

  • 05 KO durability favours Brener

    Elves Brener has been KO'd 83% less often

  • 06 KO rate favours Harrell

    Josiah Harrell finishes by KO 26% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Ricky Simon
United States 22-7-1 Wrestling Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
32% | 68%
Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 7:00 AM AEST
Montel Jackson
United States 15-3-0 MMA Southpaw 2-fight loss streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Montel Jackson
67.6 %
050100
CI · 38 – 98 · σ 0.093 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Montel Jackson eats 2.6 fewer strikes per minute
  • Montel Jackson is 12% more accurate on the feet
  • the case against Ricky Simon finishes 10% more of their wins
  • Montel Jackson has never been finished in 13 fights
Method Breakdown
Simon Jackson
KO/TKO 8.2
9.8
Submission 2.0
7.8
Decision 22.1
50.0
Finish Distribution · By Round
13
R1
10
R2
5
R3
72
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Simon Jackson
Str/min 3.0
2.9
Sig Acc 42%
54%
Str Def 60%
59%
TD/min 0.26
0.18
Finish 41%
31%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
21
46
SimonJackson
Combined 76 21–121
Takedowns
0.9
0.8
SimonJackson
Combined 1.8 0.0–5.4
Fight length
Expected 2.5 of 3 rounds 72% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Jackson

    Montel Jackson eats 2.6 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Finish rate favours Simon

    Ricky Simon finishes 10% more of their wins

  • 03 Striking accuracy favours Jackson

    Montel Jackson is 12% more accurate on the feet

  • 04 Takedown volume favours Simon

    Ricky Simon hits 0.08 more takedowns per minute

  • 05 Submission rate favours Simon

    Ricky Simon taps opponents 10% more often

  • 06 Takedown defence favours Simon

    Ricky Simon stuffs 11% more incoming takedowns

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Norma Dumont
Brazil 13-2-0 Orthodox 1 loss
42% | 58%
Women's Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 7:00 AM AEST
Ailin Perez
Argentina 13-2-0 Kung Fu Switch Stance 6-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Ailin Perez
57.7 %
050100
CI · 28 – 88 · σ 0.068 · High
Why this pick
  • Ailin Perez rides a 6-fight longer win streak
  • Ailin Perez eats 0.8 fewer strikes per minute
  • Ailin Perez hits 0.23 more takedowns per minute
  • the case against Norma Dumont lands 1.0 more sig strikes per minute
  • Ailin Perez rides a 6-fight win streak (Norma Dumont: 0)
Method Breakdown
Dumont Perez
KO/TKO 0.1
9.8
Submission 14.8
2.3
Decision 27.3
45.6
Finish Distribution · By Round
7
R1
12
R2
7
R3
73
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Dumont Perez
Str/min 3.8
2.9
Sig Acc 51%
56%
Str Def 64%
57%
TD/min 0.10
0.33
Finish 8%
29%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
44
43
DumontPerez
Combined 83 23–133
Takedowns
0.7
1.5
DumontPerez
Combined 2.6 0.0–5.7
Fight length
Expected 2.6 of 3 rounds 73% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Perez

    Ailin Perez rides a 6-fight longer win streak

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Perez

    Ailin Perez eats 0.8 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 Striking volume favours Dumont

    Norma Dumont lands 1.0 more sig strikes per minute

  • 04 Takedown volume favours Perez

    Ailin Perez hits 0.23 more takedowns per minute

  • 05 Finish rate favours Perez

    Ailin Perez finishes 20% more of their wins

  • 06 Submission rate favours Perez

    Ailin Perez taps opponents 14% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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AL
China 17-10-2 Wrestling Orthodox 1 loss
31% | 69%
Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 7:00 AM AEST
John Castaneda
United States 21-8-1 MMA Switch Stance 3-fight loss streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
John Castaneda
68.8 %
050100
CI · 39 – 98 · σ 0.062 · High
Why this pick
  • John Castaneda lands 2.4 more sig strikes per minute
  • John Castaneda finishes 22% more of their wins
  • John Castaneda is 19% more accurate on the feet
  • the case against Alatengheili eats 0.4 fewer strikes per minute
  • John Castaneda out-volumes opponents at 5.2 sig/min vs Alatengheili's 2.8
Method Breakdown
Alatengheili Castaneda
KO/TKO 6.4
21.1
Submission 3.6
8.8
Decision 21.1
39.0
Finish Distribution · By Round
17
R1
13
R2
9
R3
60
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Alatengheili Castaneda
Str/min 2.8
5.2
Sig Acc 33%
52%
Str Def 57%
53%
TD/min 0.12
0.09
Finish 11%
33%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
47
58
AlatengheiliCastaneda
Combined 102 22–166
Takedowns
0.2
0.1
AlatengheiliCastaneda
Combined 1.1 0.0–3.9
Fight length
Expected 2.3 of 3 rounds 60% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Castaneda

    John Castaneda lands 2.4 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Alatengheili

    Alatengheili eats 0.4 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 Finish rate favours Castaneda

    John Castaneda finishes 22% more of their wins

  • 04 Striking accuracy favours Castaneda

    John Castaneda is 19% more accurate on the feet

  • 05 KO rate favours Castaneda

    John Castaneda finishes by KO 11% more often

  • 06 Loss streak favours Alatengheili

    Alatengheili comes in on a 2-fight cleaner skid

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Vanessa Demopoulos
United States 11-8-0 Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 3-fight loss streak
30% | 70%
Women's Strawweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 7:00 AM AEST
YJ
Mexico 11-2-0 Freestyle Orthodox 1 loss
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Yazmin Jauregui
69.8 %
050100
CI · 40 – 98 · σ 0.076 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Yazmin Jauregui lands 3.0 more sig strikes per minute
  • Yazmin Jauregui eats 0.4 fewer strikes per minute
  • Yazmin Jauregui stuffs 72% more incoming takedowns
  • layoff Jauregui hasn't fought since Sep 2024 — ring rust is hard to price, so the model widens its uncertainty here
  • Yazmin Jauregui out-volumes opponents at 6.6 sig/min vs Vanessa Demopoulos's 3.6
Method Breakdown
Demopoulos Jauregui
KO/TKO 0.1
22.6
Submission 11.6
0.1
Decision 18.5
47.1
Finish Distribution · By Round
18
R1
10
R2
6
R3
66
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Demopoulos Jauregui
Str/min 3.6
6.6
Sig Acc 40%
39%
Str Def 41%
55%
TD/min 0.02
0.00
Finish 20%
60%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
54
66
DemopoulosJauregui
Combined 111 22–192
Takedowns
0.5
0.2
DemopoulosJauregui
Combined 0.7 0.0–3.8
Fight length
Expected 2.4 of 3 rounds 66% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Jauregui

    Yazmin Jauregui lands 3.0 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Jauregui

    Yazmin Jauregui eats 0.4 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 Takedown defence favours Jauregui

    Yazmin Jauregui stuffs 72% more incoming takedowns

  • 04 Finish rate favours Jauregui

    Yazmin Jauregui finishes 40% more of their wins

  • 05 KO rate favours Jauregui

    Yazmin Jauregui finishes by KO 40% more often

  • 06 Striking defence favours Jauregui

    Yazmin Jauregui avoids 14% more incoming strikes

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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