New here? How to read these predictions
- Win probability
- Our model's estimate that a fighter wins — e.g. 72% means we'd expect them to win roughly 7 of 10 times.
- Confidence interval (CI)
- The range the true probability likely falls in. Wider = less certain. A pick'em fight has a wide band; a clear favourite a narrow one.
- Edge
- How much higher our probability is than the bookmaker's implied odds. Positive edge = we think it's underpriced.
- EV (expected value)
- Average return if you placed the bet many times. +15% EV means about 15c profit per $1 staked, on average.
- Risk tiers
- Conservative leans to safe favourites, Balanced blends, Aggressive chases bigger-odds longshots. Pick what suits you.
- Edge badges
- Strong / Solid / Slight edge rank how much value the model sees — and how big a stake it suggests. They're not a promise the bet wins.
Tap any fight row to open the full model breakdown. New to the model itself? How it works · FAQ.
UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos
- Raul Rosas Jr. eats 2.9 fewer strikes per minute
- Raul Rosas Jr. hits 0.28 more takedowns per minute
- Raul Rosas Jr. taps opponents 15% more often
- the case against Raoni Barcelos lands 3.3 more sig strikes per minute
- Raoni Barcelos out-volumes opponents at 4.7 sig/min vs Raul Rosas Jr.'s 1.3
-
01 Strikes absorbed favours Jr.
Raul Rosas Jr. eats 2.9 fewer strikes per minute
-
02 Striking volume favours Barcelos
Raoni Barcelos lands 3.3 more sig strikes per minute
-
03 Takedown defence favours Barcelos
Raoni Barcelos stuffs 54% more incoming takedowns
-
04 Takedown volume favours Jr.
Raul Rosas Jr. hits 0.28 more takedowns per minute
-
05 Submission rate favours Jr.
Raul Rosas Jr. taps opponents 15% more often
-
06 Control time favours Jr.
Raul Rosas Jr. controls 32% more cage time
- Rodolfo Vieira taps opponents 45% more often
- Rodolfo Vieira lands 0.6 more sig strikes per minute
- Rodolfo Vieira finishes 30% more of their wins
- the case against Robert Bryczek finishes by KO 24% more often
- Robert Bryczek has never been finished in 3 fights
-
01 Submission rate favours Vieira
Rodolfo Vieira taps opponents 45% more often
-
02 Striking volume favours Vieira
Rodolfo Vieira lands 0.6 more sig strikes per minute
-
03 Finish rate favours Vieira
Rodolfo Vieira finishes 30% more of their wins
-
04 Strikes absorbed favours Vieira
Rodolfo Vieira eats 0.2 fewer strikes per minute
-
05 KO rate favours Bryczek
Robert Bryczek finishes by KO 24% more often
-
06 Takedown volume favours Vieira
Rodolfo Vieira hits 0.17 more takedowns per minute
- Model uncertainty: ±6pp on the win probability
- Valesca Machado is favoured at 68% — fight-history features sparse
- Model uncertainty: ±4pp on the win probability
-
01 Model lean favours Machado
Valesca Machado is favoured at 68% — fight-history features sparse
- Rinya Nakamura eats 2.2 fewer strikes per minute
- Rinya Nakamura stuffs 57% more incoming takedowns
- Rinya Nakamura finishes by KO 16% more often
- the case against Brady Hiestand rides a 2-fight longer win streak
- layoff Hiestand hasn't fought since Jun 2024 — ring rust is hard to price, so the model widens its uncertainty here
- Brady Hiestand rides a 3-fight win streak (Rinya Nakamura: 1)
-
01 Strikes absorbed favours Nakamura
Rinya Nakamura eats 2.2 fewer strikes per minute
-
02 Win streak favours Hiestand
Brady Hiestand rides a 2-fight longer win streak
-
03 Takedown defence favours Nakamura
Rinya Nakamura stuffs 57% more incoming takedowns
-
04 Submission rate favours Hiestand
Brady Hiestand taps opponents 24% more often
-
05 Takedown volume favours Hiestand
Brady Hiestand hits 0.15 more takedowns per minute
-
06 KO rate favours Nakamura
Rinya Nakamura finishes by KO 16% more often
- Rodolfo Bellato lands 3.5 more sig strikes per minute
- Rodolfo Bellato finishes 40% more of their wins
- Rodolfo Bellato finishes by KO 40% more often
- the case against Christian Edwards eats 3.8 fewer strikes per minute
- Rodolfo Bellato out-volumes opponents at 5.4 sig/min vs Christian Edwards's 1.8
-
01 Strikes absorbed favours Edwards
Christian Edwards eats 3.8 fewer strikes per minute
-
02 Striking volume favours Bellato
Rodolfo Bellato lands 3.5 more sig strikes per minute
-
03 Finish rate favours Bellato
Rodolfo Bellato finishes 40% more of their wins
-
04 KO rate favours Bellato
Rodolfo Bellato finishes by KO 40% more often
-
05 Win streak favours Bellato
Rodolfo Bellato rides a 1-fight longer win streak
-
06 Striking accuracy favours Bellato
Rodolfo Bellato is 20% more accurate on the feet
- Elves Brener eats 5.1 fewer strikes per minute
- Elves Brener lands 3.0 more sig strikes per minute
- Elves Brener stuffs 76% more incoming takedowns
- the case against Josiah Harrell finishes 26% more of their wins
- Elves Brener out-volumes opponents at 4.8 sig/min vs Josiah Harrell's 1.8
-
01 Strikes absorbed favours Brener
Elves Brener eats 5.1 fewer strikes per minute
-
02 Striking volume favours Brener
Elves Brener lands 3.0 more sig strikes per minute
-
03 Takedown defence favours Brener
Elves Brener stuffs 76% more incoming takedowns
-
04 Finish rate favours Harrell
Josiah Harrell finishes 26% more of their wins
-
05 KO durability favours Brener
Elves Brener has been KO'd 83% less often
-
06 KO rate favours Harrell
Josiah Harrell finishes by KO 26% more often
- Montel Jackson eats 2.6 fewer strikes per minute
- Montel Jackson is 12% more accurate on the feet
- the case against Ricky Simon finishes 10% more of their wins
- Montel Jackson has never been finished in 13 fights
-
01 Strikes absorbed favours Jackson
Montel Jackson eats 2.6 fewer strikes per minute
-
02 Finish rate favours Simon
Ricky Simon finishes 10% more of their wins
-
03 Striking accuracy favours Jackson
Montel Jackson is 12% more accurate on the feet
-
04 Takedown volume favours Simon
Ricky Simon hits 0.08 more takedowns per minute
-
05 Submission rate favours Simon
Ricky Simon taps opponents 10% more often
-
06 Takedown defence favours Simon
Ricky Simon stuffs 11% more incoming takedowns
- Ailin Perez rides a 6-fight longer win streak
- Ailin Perez eats 0.8 fewer strikes per minute
- Ailin Perez hits 0.23 more takedowns per minute
- the case against Norma Dumont lands 1.0 more sig strikes per minute
- Ailin Perez rides a 6-fight win streak (Norma Dumont: 0)
-
01 Win streak favours Perez
Ailin Perez rides a 6-fight longer win streak
-
02 Strikes absorbed favours Perez
Ailin Perez eats 0.8 fewer strikes per minute
-
03 Striking volume favours Dumont
Norma Dumont lands 1.0 more sig strikes per minute
-
04 Takedown volume favours Perez
Ailin Perez hits 0.23 more takedowns per minute
-
05 Finish rate favours Perez
Ailin Perez finishes 20% more of their wins
-
06 Submission rate favours Perez
Ailin Perez taps opponents 14% more often
- John Castaneda lands 2.4 more sig strikes per minute
- John Castaneda finishes 22% more of their wins
- John Castaneda is 19% more accurate on the feet
- the case against Alatengheili eats 0.4 fewer strikes per minute
- John Castaneda out-volumes opponents at 5.2 sig/min vs Alatengheili's 2.8
-
01 Striking volume favours Castaneda
John Castaneda lands 2.4 more sig strikes per minute
-
02 Strikes absorbed favours Alatengheili
Alatengheili eats 0.4 fewer strikes per minute
-
03 Finish rate favours Castaneda
John Castaneda finishes 22% more of their wins
-
04 Striking accuracy favours Castaneda
John Castaneda is 19% more accurate on the feet
-
05 KO rate favours Castaneda
John Castaneda finishes by KO 11% more often
-
06 Loss streak favours Alatengheili
Alatengheili comes in on a 2-fight cleaner skid
- Yazmin Jauregui lands 3.0 more sig strikes per minute
- Yazmin Jauregui eats 0.4 fewer strikes per minute
- Yazmin Jauregui stuffs 72% more incoming takedowns
- layoff Jauregui hasn't fought since Sep 2024 — ring rust is hard to price, so the model widens its uncertainty here
- Yazmin Jauregui out-volumes opponents at 6.6 sig/min vs Vanessa Demopoulos's 3.6
-
01 Striking volume favours Jauregui
Yazmin Jauregui lands 3.0 more sig strikes per minute
-
02 Strikes absorbed favours Jauregui
Yazmin Jauregui eats 0.4 fewer strikes per minute
-
03 Takedown defence favours Jauregui
Yazmin Jauregui stuffs 72% more incoming takedowns
-
04 Finish rate favours Jauregui
Yazmin Jauregui finishes 40% more of their wins
-
05 KO rate favours Jauregui
Yazmin Jauregui finishes by KO 40% more often
-
06 Striking defence favours Jauregui
Yazmin Jauregui avoids 14% more incoming strikes
The matrix has identified no value yet — SportsBet odds may not be published.