Updated 2026-07-05 00:32 AEST
8
Bouts
0
Events
1
Value Bets
New here? How to read these predictions
Win probability
Our model's estimate that a fighter wins — e.g. 72% means we'd expect them to win roughly 7 of 10 times.
Confidence interval (CI)
The range the true probability likely falls in. Wider = less certain. A pick'em fight has a wide band; a clear favourite a narrow one.
Edge
How much higher our probability is than the bookmaker's implied odds. Positive edge = we think it's underpriced.
EV (expected value)
Average return if you placed the bet many times. +15% EV means about 15c profit per $1 staked, on average.
Risk tiers
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Islam Makhachev
Makhachev
Title · Main Event
72%
Model Leans Makhachev
2026-08-15
Ian Machado Garry
Garry
UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry
2026
15
AUG
⚡ Next Event

UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry

Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia, USA
8
Bouts
1
Value Bouts
Islam Makhachev
C Islam Makhachev
Russia 28-1-0 Sambo Southpaw 16-fight win streak
SB 1.25
72% | 28%
Welterweight 5 rds
⏱ Sun 16 Aug · 1:30 PM AEST
Ian Machado Garry
Ian Machado Garry
Ireland 17-1-0 Orthodox 2-fight win streak
SB 3.85
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Islam Makhachev
72.4 %
050100
90% CI · 42 – 98 · σ 0.088 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Islam Makhachev rides a 14-fight longer win streak
  • Islam Makhachev eats 1.4 fewer strikes per minute
  • Islam Makhachev finishes 39% more of their wins
  • the case against Ian Machado Garry lands 2.3 more sig strikes per minute
  • Islam Makhachev rides a 16-fight win streak (Ian Machado Garry: 2)
Method Breakdown
Makhachev Garry
KO/TKO 14.6
16.6
Submission 23.0
1.9
Decision 34.7
9.0
Finish Distribution · By Round
23
R1
17
R2
9
R3
5
R4
3
R5
44
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Makhachev Garry
Str/min 2.4
4.8
Sig Acc 58%
54%
Str Def 62%
53%
TD/min 0.21
0.06
Finish 67%
27%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
38
43
MakhachevGarry
Combined 104 19–155
Takedowns
2.2
0.0
MakhachevGarry
Combined 2.5 0.0–5.3
Fight length
Expected 3.1 of 5 rounds 43% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Makhachev

    Islam Makhachev rides a 14-fight longer win streak

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Makhachev

    Islam Makhachev eats 1.4 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 Striking volume favours Garry

    Ian Machado Garry lands 2.3 more sig strikes per minute

  • 04 Finish rate favours Makhachev

    Islam Makhachev finishes 39% more of their wins

  • 05 Submission rate favours Makhachev

    Islam Makhachev taps opponents 44% more often

  • 06 Takedown volume favours Makhachev

    Islam Makhachev hits 0.15 more takedowns per minute

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed
No markets passed the empirical-ROI gate. 2 markets analysed.
Mackenzie Dern
C Mackenzie Dern
United States 16-5-0 Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 3-fight win streak
SB 1.44
48% | 52%
Women's Strawweight 5 rds
⏱ Sun 16 Aug · 12:45 PM AEST
Gillian Robertson
Gillian Robertson
Canada 17-8-0 MMA Orthodox 5-fight win streak
SB 2.72
Breakdown ▼
1 value bet on SportsBet
Model Favourite
Gillian Robertson
52.4 %
050100
90% CI · 22 – 82 · σ 0.067 · High
Why this pick
  • Gillian Robertson eats 1.1 fewer strikes per minute
  • Gillian Robertson rides a 2-fight longer win streak
  • Gillian Robertson finishes 22% more of their wins
  • the case against Mackenzie Dern lands 0.8 more sig strikes per minute
  • Gillian Robertson rides a 5-fight win streak (Mackenzie Dern: 3)
Method Breakdown
Dern Robertson
KO/TKO 3.5
11.4
Submission 25.4
10.7
Decision 18.8
30.3
Finish Distribution · By Round
21
R1
13
R2
7
R3
4
R4
2
R5
49
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Dern Robertson
Str/min 3.5
2.7
Sig Acc 42%
48%
Str Def 52%
56%
TD/min 0.06
0.18
Finish 38%
60%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
42
41
DernRobertson
Combined 83 18–146
Takedowns
0.2
1.5
DernRobertson
Combined 2.0 0.0–5.9
Fight length
Expected 3.3 of 5 rounds 52% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Robertson

    Gillian Robertson eats 1.1 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Robertson

    Gillian Robertson rides a 2-fight longer win streak

  • 03 Striking volume favours Dern

    Mackenzie Dern lands 0.8 more sig strikes per minute

  • 04 Finish rate favours Robertson

    Gillian Robertson finishes 22% more of their wins

  • 05 Takedown volume favours Robertson

    Gillian Robertson hits 0.12 more takedowns per minute

  • 06 KO rate favours Robertson

    Gillian Robertson finishes by KO 14% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 1 flagged · 2 markets analysed
  • Gillian Robertson wins
    Strong edge
    Model 52%
    Bookies 37%
    EV / $100 +$42
    Stake 6.2%
    2.72
    $62 returns $169
    +$107 profit
Edson Barboza
Edson Barboza
Brazil 24-14-0 Striker Orthodox 3-fight loss streak
34% | 66%
Lightweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 16 Aug · 11:00 AM AEST
Esteban Ribovics
Esteban Ribovics
Argentina 15-3-0 Striker Orthodox 1 loss
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Esteban Ribovics
65.5 %
050100
90% CI · 36 – 96 · σ 0.100 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Esteban Ribovics lands 3.1 more sig strikes per minute
  • Esteban Ribovics comes in on a 2-fight cleaner skid
  • the case against Edson Barboza eats 1.1 fewer strikes per minute
  • Esteban Ribovics out-volumes opponents at 7.2 sig/min vs Edson Barboza's 4.1
Method Breakdown
Barboza Ribovics
KO/TKO 9.2
29.5
Submission 3.2
12.8
Decision 22.1
23.3
Finish Distribution · By Round
26
R1
19
R2
10
R3
45
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Barboza Ribovics
Str/min 4.1
7.2
Sig Acc 45%
43%
Str Def 56%
54%
TD/min 0.03
0.02
Finish 50%
29%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
52
59
BarbozaRibovics
Combined 114 22–196
Takedowns
0.0
0.4
BarbozaRibovics
Combined 0.5 0.0–3.8
Fight length
Expected 2.0 of 3 rounds 45% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Ribovics

    Esteban Ribovics lands 3.1 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Barboza

    Edson Barboza eats 1.1 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 KO rate favours Barboza

    Edson Barboza finishes by KO 29% more often

  • 04 Finish rate favours Barboza

    Edson Barboza finishes 21% more of their wins

  • 05 Loss streak favours Ribovics

    Esteban Ribovics comes in on a 2-fight cleaner skid

  • 06 Takedown defence favours Barboza

    Edson Barboza stuffs 7% more incoming takedowns

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Erin Blanchfield
Erin Blanchfield
United States 14-2-0 Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 2-fight win streak
81% | 19%
Women's Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 16 Aug · 11:00 AM AEST
Jasmine Jasudavicius
Jasmine Jasudavicius
Canada 15-4-0 Brawler Orthodox 1 win
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Erin Blanchfield
81.1 %
050100
90% CI · 51 – 98 · σ 0.099 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Erin Blanchfield lands 1.9 more sig strikes per minute
  • Erin Blanchfield rides a 1-fight longer win streak
  • Erin Blanchfield taps opponents 19% more often
  • the case against Jasmine Jasudavicius eats 0.9 fewer strikes per minute
  • Erin Blanchfield out-volumes opponents at 5.2 sig/min vs Jasmine Jasudavicius's 3.4
Method Breakdown
Blanchfield Jasudavicius
KO/TKO 22.7
3.7
Submission 14.1
2.0
Decision 44.3
13.2
Finish Distribution · By Round
19
R1
13
R2
10
R3
58
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Blanchfield Jasudavicius
Str/min 5.2
3.4
Sig Acc 44%
44%
Str Def 59%
52%
TD/min 0.13
0.17
Finish 44%
33%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
52
45
BlanchfieldJasudavicius
Combined 109 21–157
Takedowns
0.4
0.6
BlanchfieldJasudavicius
Combined 1.8 0.0–5.0
Fight length
Expected 2.3 of 3 rounds 58% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Blanchfield

    Erin Blanchfield lands 1.9 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Jasudavicius

    Jasmine Jasudavicius eats 0.9 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 Win streak favours Blanchfield

    Erin Blanchfield rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 04 Submission rate favours Blanchfield

    Erin Blanchfield taps opponents 19% more often

  • 05 Finish rate favours Blanchfield

    Erin Blanchfield finishes 11% more of their wins

  • 06 KO rate favours Jasudavicius

    Jasmine Jasudavicius finishes by KO 8% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Chidi Njokuani
Chidi Njokuani
United States 25-11-0 MMA Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
36% | 64%
Welterweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 16 Aug · 9:00 AM AEST
Geoff Neal
Geoff Neal
United States 16-8-0 Striker Southpaw 2-fight loss streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Geoff Neal
64.1 %
050100
90% CI · 34 – 94 · σ 0.048 · High
Why this pick
  • Geoff Neal stuffs 15% more incoming takedowns
  • Geoff Neal taps opponents 7% more often
  • Geoff Neal finishes 4% more of their wins
  • the case against Chidi Njokuani eats 1.7 fewer strikes per minute
  • Geoff Neal KOs 50% of opponents — Chidi Njokuani has been KO'd in 20% of losses
Method Breakdown
Njokuani Neal
KO/TKO 20.7
20.8
Submission 1.9
3.8
Decision 13.3
39.5
Finish Distribution · By Round
28
R1
16
R2
3
R3
53
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Njokuani Neal
Str/min 5.7
5.0
Sig Acc 60%
51%
Str Def 57%
57%
TD/min 0.00
0.04
Finish 60%
64%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
47
57
NjokuaniNeal
Combined 81 18–164
Takedowns
0.0
0.2
NjokuaniNeal
Combined 0.5 0.0–4.1
Fight length
Expected 2.0 of 3 rounds 53% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Njokuani

    Chidi Njokuani eats 1.7 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Njokuani

    Chidi Njokuani lands 0.7 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Striking accuracy favours Njokuani

    Chidi Njokuani is 9% more accurate on the feet

  • 04 Takedown defence favours Neal

    Geoff Neal stuffs 15% more incoming takedowns

  • 05 Submission rate favours Neal

    Geoff Neal taps opponents 7% more often

  • 06 Finish rate favours Neal

    Geoff Neal finishes 4% more of their wins

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Vicente Luque
Vicente Luque
United States 24-12-1 Muay Thai Orthodox 1 win
60% | 40%
Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 16 Aug · 7:00 AM AEST
Tresean Gore
Tresean Gore
United States 7-4-0 Boxing Switch Stance 1 win
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Vicente Luque
60.4 %
050100
90% CI · 30 – 90 · σ 0.072 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Vicente Luque eats 1.8 fewer strikes per minute
  • Vicente Luque lands 1.4 more sig strikes per minute
  • Vicente Luque finishes by KO 11% more often
  • the case against Tresean Gore taps opponents 15% more often
  • Vicente Luque out-volumes opponents at 4.8 sig/min vs Tresean Gore's 3.4
Method Breakdown
Luque Gore
KO/TKO 23.9
11.9
Submission 12.5
9.8
Decision 24.0
17.9
Finish Distribution · By Round
30
R1
19
R2
10
R3
42
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Luque Gore
Str/min 4.8
3.4
Sig Acc 51%
50%
Str Def 52%
41%
TD/min 0.06
0.13
Finish 72%
71%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
34
33
LuqueGore
Combined 62 15–139
Takedowns
0.1
0.6
LuqueGore
Combined 1.6 0.0–4.6
Fight length
Expected 1.9 of 3 rounds 42% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Luque

    Vicente Luque eats 1.8 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Luque

    Vicente Luque lands 1.4 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Submission rate favours Gore

    Tresean Gore taps opponents 15% more often

  • 04 Takedown defence favours Gore

    Tresean Gore stuffs 24% more incoming takedowns

  • 05 KO rate favours Luque

    Vicente Luque finishes by KO 11% more often

  • 06 Takedown volume favours Gore

    Tresean Gore hits 0.07 more takedowns per minute

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Jeremiah Wells
Jeremiah Wells
United States 13-4-1 Striker Switch Stance 1 win
11% | 89%
Welterweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 16 Aug · 7:00 AM AEST
Myktybek Orolbai
Myktybek Orolbai
Kyrgyzstan 16-2-1 MMA Orthodox 3-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Myktybek Orolbai
88.8 %
050100
90% CI · 59 – 98 · σ 0.069 · High
Why this pick
  • Myktybek Orolbai rides a 2-fight longer win streak
  • Myktybek Orolbai hits 0.38 more takedowns per minute
  • Myktybek Orolbai lands 0.4 more sig strikes per minute
  • the case against Jeremiah Wells eats 1.4 fewer strikes per minute
  • Myktybek Orolbai rides a 3-fight win streak (Jeremiah Wells: 1)
Method Breakdown
Wells Orolbai
KO/TKO 2.9
24.4
Submission 1.6
18.7
Decision 6.8
45.7
Finish Distribution · By Round
18
R1
15
R2
15
R3
52
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Wells Orolbai
Str/min 2.3
2.8
Sig Acc 46%
50%
Str Def 48%
51%
TD/min 0.20
0.58
Finish 57%
50%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
23
22
WellsOrolbai
Combined 51 17–107
Takedowns
0.8
1.6
WellsOrolbai
Combined 3.0 0.0–7.1
Fight length
Expected 2.3 of 3 rounds 53% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Wells

    Jeremiah Wells eats 1.4 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Orolbai

    Myktybek Orolbai rides a 2-fight longer win streak

  • 03 Takedown volume favours Orolbai

    Myktybek Orolbai hits 0.38 more takedowns per minute

  • 04 Striking volume favours Orolbai

    Myktybek Orolbai lands 0.4 more sig strikes per minute

  • 05 Submission rate favours Orolbai

    Myktybek Orolbai taps opponents 19% more often

  • 06 KO rate favours Wells

    Jeremiah Wells finishes by KO 12% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Dustin Stoltzfus
Dustin Stoltzfus
United States 16-8-0 Muay Thai Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
30% | 70%
Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 16 Aug · 9:00 AM AEST
Mansur Abdul-Malik
Mansur Abdul-Malik
United States 9-1-1 Freestyle Orthodox 1 loss
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Mansur Abdul-Malik
69.9 %
050100
90% CI · 40 – 98 · σ 0.065 · High
Why this pick
  • Mansur Abdul-Malik finishes by KO 30% more often
  • Mansur Abdul-Malik finishes 20% more of their wins
  • Mansur Abdul-Malik stuffs 40% more incoming takedowns
  • the case against Dustin Stoltzfus eats 1.1 fewer strikes per minute
  • Mansur Abdul-Malik KOs 60% of opponents — Dustin Stoltzfus has been KO'd in 20% of losses
Method Breakdown
Stoltzfus Abdul-Malik
KO/TKO 7.7
23.3
Submission 6.4
19.6
Decision 16.0
27.1
Finish Distribution · By Round
29
R1
18
R2
9
R3
43
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Stoltzfus Abdul-Malik
Str/min 3.3
2.8
Sig Acc 44%
42%
Str Def 48%
44%
TD/min 0.13
0.14
Finish 60%
80%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
31
26
StoltzfusAbdul-Malik
Combined 54 15–133
Takedowns
0.4
0.7
StoltzfusAbdul-Malik
Combined 1.6 0.0–4.5
Fight length
Expected 2.0 of 3 rounds 43% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Stoltzfus

    Dustin Stoltzfus eats 1.1 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 KO rate favours Abdul-Malik

    Mansur Abdul-Malik finishes by KO 30% more often

  • 03 Striking volume favours Stoltzfus

    Dustin Stoltzfus lands 0.5 more sig strikes per minute

  • 04 Finish rate favours Abdul-Malik

    Mansur Abdul-Malik finishes 20% more of their wins

  • 05 Takedown defence favours Abdul-Malik

    Mansur Abdul-Malik stuffs 40% more incoming takedowns

  • 06 Submission rate favours Abdul-Malik

    Mansur Abdul-Malik taps opponents 10% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.