UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry — Results & Recap

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⟁ Past Events — Predictions vs. Actual Results

116 / 168

Correct Picks

69.0% accuracy · 16 events

5 / 8

Parlay Legs

4 parlays · −$221

−$607

Running P&L · opening

$1000 / event · Conservative · Kelly-weighted · closing: +$369

46 of 58 confident picks landed — when the model gives a fighter 70%+ it has been right 79% of the time

10–19 betting record with the same amount on every recommended bet (-11.1 units — early days, small sample)

Bankroll curve $1000 per event · Conservative tier · opening odds −$607

2026-06-15 peak $139 · trough $-662 2026-08-15

UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry 2026-08-15 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · −$80

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Gillian Robertson wins	Mackenzie Dern vs Gillian Robertson	2.72	$80	✗ lost −$80

UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld 2026-08-08 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · −$75

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Louie Sutherland wins	Henrique Da Silva Lopes vs Louie Sutherland	1.63	—	⋯ pending
Guilherme Pat wins	Steven Asplund vs Guilherme Pat	3.02	$49	✗ lost −$49
Jessie Rosas wins	Miles Johns vs Jessie Rosas	2.33	—	⋯ pending
Amanda Lemos wins	Amanda Lemos vs Alexia Thainara	3.02	$27	✗ lost −$27

UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez 2026-08-01 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · −$56

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Mateusz Rebecki wins	Kyle Prepolec vs Mateusz Rebecki	1.18	$80	✓ won +$14
Oban Elliott wins	Oban Elliott vs Michael Oliveira	3.57	$80	✗ lost −$80
Bogdan Grad wins	Dennis Buzukja vs Bogdan Grad	1.52	$62	✓ won +$32
Fight goes to Decision	Daniel Rodriguez vs Uros Medic	7.25	$22	✗ lost −$22

UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov 2026-07-25 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · −$102

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Nurullo Aliev wins	Mike Davis vs Nurullo Aliev	1.54	$80	✓ won +$43
Tyrell Fortune wins	Rizvan Kuniev vs Tyrell Fortune	3.34	$80	✗ lost −$80
Damian Rzepecki wins	Magomed Zaynukov vs Damian Rzepecki	3.73	$43	✗ lost −$43
Dustin Jacoby wins	Dustin Jacoby vs Muhammad Said	1.59	$23	✗ lost −$23

UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman 2026-07-18 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · +$38

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Chase Hooper wins	Chase Hooper vs Mitch Ramirez	1.27	$80	✓ won +$22
Christian Leroy Duncan wins	Jared Cannonier vs Christian Leroy Duncan	1.32	$80	✓ won +$26
Dricus Du Plessis wins by SUB	Kamaru Usman vs Dricus Du Plessis	9.25	$55	✗ lost −$55
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani wins	Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs Seokhyeon Ko	2.66	$28	✓ won +$46

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 2026-07-11 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly · −$200

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Elisha Ellison wins	Gable Steveson vs Elisha Ellison	10.00	$138	✗ lost −$138
Benoit Saint Denis wins	Paddy Pimblett vs Benoit Saint Denis	1.53	$62	✗ lost −$62

UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres 2026-06-27 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly · −$216

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Manuel Torres wins	Rafael Fiziev vs Manuel Torres	1.96	$115	✗ lost −$115
Eric Nolan wins by Sub or Decision	Eric Nolan vs Farman Hasanov	5.30	$70	✗ lost −$70
Matheus Camilo wins	Nazim Sadykhov vs Matheus Camilo	2.99	$48	✓ won +$95
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	Julius Walker vs Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev	3.92	$44	✗ lost −$44
Fight reaches Round 2	Julius Walker vs Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev	2.17	$44	✗ lost −$44
Michel Pereira wins	Michel Pereira vs Shara Magomedov	3.82	$37	✗ lost −$37

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi 2 2026-06-20 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly · +$109

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Luana Santos wins	Karol Rosa vs Luana Santos	1.97	$157	✓ won +$152
Kyoji Horiguchi wins by KO/TKO	Kyoji Horiguchi vs Manel Kape	11.50	$43	✗ lost −$43

UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje 2026-06-15 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly · −$26

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Josh Hokit wins by KO or Decision	Derrick Lewis vs Josh Hokit	1.78	$73	✓ won +$57
Ilia Topuria wins by DEC	Justin Gaethje vs Ilia Topuria	13.00	$57	✗ lost −$57
Steve Garcia wins	Steve Garcia vs Diego Lopes	2.48	$52	✗ lost −$52
Bo Nickal wins by KO or Decision	Kyle Daukaus vs Bo Nickal	1.71	$38	✓ won +$27

5 / 8

Legs landed

62.5% of picks

1 / 4

Parlays won

every leg has to land

−$221

Profit

$100 on each

Only 4 parlays settled so far — far too few to judge the profit either way. On 93 past cards, parlays picked this way landed 61% of the time.

UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez 2026-08-01 · +$79

2-leg @ 1.79 Mateusz Rebecki wins @ 1.18Bogdan Grad wins @ 1.52 ✓ WON +$79

UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov 2026-07-25 · −$100

2-leg @ 2.45 Dustin Jacoby wins @ 1.59Nurullo Aliev wins @ 1.54 ✗ LOST −$100

UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman 2026-07-18 · −$100

2-leg @ 2.24 Christian Leroy Duncan wins @ 1.32Alvin Hines wins @ 1.70 ✗ LOST −$100

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 2026-07-11 · −$100

2-leg @ 1.99 Damian Pinas wins @ 1.46Fight reaches Round 2 @ 1.36 ✗ LOST −$100

UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry 6/11 · 55%

2026-08-15

Islam Makhachev

28-1-0

Winner

Islam Makhachev

Decision (U) · R5

✓ predicted

Ian Machado Garry

17-1-0

▼

Model Prediction

Islam Makhachev ✓ won 66%

KO 7%· Sub 31%· Dec 28%

Ian Machado Garry 34%

KO 16%· Sub 3%· Dec 15%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Islam Makhachev wins	66%	1.25	✓ predicted
Finish round Finish in Round 2	21%	—	missed

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Ian Machado Garry wins value	34%	3.55	✗ lost
Islam Makhachev wins	66%	1.25	✓ won

Mackenzie Dern

16-5-0

Winner

Mackenzie Dern

Decision (U) · R5

✗ wrong

Gillian Robertson

17-8-0

▼

Model Prediction

Mackenzie Dern ✓ won 29%

KO 3%· Sub 16%· Dec 9%

Gillian Robertson 71%

KO 7%· Sub 10%· Dec 55%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Gillian Robertson wins value	71%	21.00	missed
Method Gillian Robertson wins by Decision value	55%	91.00	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	64%	5.10	✓ predicted

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Gillian Robertson wins by DEC value	55%	91.00	✗ lost
Gillian Robertson wins value	71%	21.00	✗ lost
Gillian Robertson wins by SUB	10%	51.00	✗ lost
Gillian Robertson wins by KO/TKO	7%	46.00	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	36%	5.10	✗ lost
Mackenzie Dern wins by SUB	16%	6.25	✗ lost
Mackenzie Dern wins by KO/TKO	3%	34.00	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	64%	1.13	✓ won
Mackenzie Dern wins by DEC	9%	1.14	✓ won

Jalin Turner

15-9-0

Winner

Jalin Turner

KO/TKO · R1

✓ predicted

Kauê Fernandes

11-2-0

▼

Model Prediction

Jalin Turner ✓ won 59%

KO 32%· Sub 11%· Dec 17%

Kauê Fernandes 41%

KO 15%· Sub 4%· Dec 22%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Jalin Turner wins value	59%	1.87	✓ predicted
Method Jalin Turner wins by KO/TKO	32%	3.00	✓ predicted
Finish round Finish in Round 1	34%	—	✓ predicted

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Fight goes to decision	38%	3.98	✗ lost
Kauê Fernandes wins by DEC	22%	6.75	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	38%	3.80	✗ lost
Jalin Turner wins in R3+ or by Decision	27%	5.10	✗ lost
Jalin Turner wins by DEC	17%	8.25	✗ lost
Kauê Fernandes wins by Decision	22%	6.00	✗ lost
Kauê Fernandes significant strikes over 39.5	45%	2.88	—
Kauê Fernandes significant strikes over 29.5	60%	2.10	—
Total significant strikes over 79.5	48%	2.55	—
Total significant strikes over 69.5	55%	2.20	—
Total significant strikes over 59.5	62%	1.96	—
Total significant strikes over 89.5	39%	3.05	—
Jalin Turner wins by Sub or Decision	27%	4.30	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 49.5	68%	1.71	—
Kauê Fernandes significant strikes over 19.5	73%	1.57	—
Fight reaches Round 3	46%	2.45	✗ lost
Jalin Turner significant strikes over 39.5	45%	2.50	—
Kauê Fernandes wins by Sub or Decision	26%	4.40	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 99.5	30%	3.75	—
Jalin Turner wins value	59%	1.87	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 119.5	19%	5.70	—
Jalin Turner significant strikes over 29.5	57%	1.91	—
Jalin Turner wins by KO or Decision	48%	2.25	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 129.5	16%	7.00	—
Jalin Turner significant strikes over 49.5	31%	3.40	—
Kauê Fernandes significant strikes over 59.5	18%	6.00	—
Total significant strikes over 109.5	23%	4.50	—
Under 2.5 rounds	58%	1.80	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 139.5	12%	8.75	—
Kauê Fernandes significant strikes over 49.5	24%	4.20	—
Total takedowns over 2.5	27%	3.80	—
Jalin Turner wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	28%	3.60	✓ won
Jalin Turner significant strikes over 19.5	69%	1.45	—
Total takedowns over 3.5	16%	6.00	—
Jalin Turner wins by KO/TKO in R2	10%	9.50	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 1.5	42%	2.30	—
Jalin Turner wins by KO or Sub	42%	2.25	✓ won
Kauê Fernandes significant strikes over 69.5	11%	8.50	—
Jalin Turner wins by KO/TKO	32%	3.00	✓ won
Jalin Turner takedowns over 0.5	39%	2.40	—
Jalin Turner wins by KO/TKO in R1	18%	5.20	✓ won
Jalin Turner significant strikes over 59.5	20%	4.50	—
Jalin Turner wins by finish in Round 2	14%	6.50	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 0.5	63%	1.41	—
Jalin Turner wins by finish in Round 1	24%	3.75	✓ won
Jalin Turner wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	14%	6.25	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 149.5	8%	11.00	—
Jalin Turner wins by Submission in R1 or R2	9%	9.25	✗ lost
Kauê Fernandes wins by KO or Decision	37%	2.25	✗ lost
Jalin Turner wins by SUB	11%	7.75	✗ lost
Finish before Round 3	54%	1.51	✓ won
Over 2.5 rounds	42%	1.90	✗ lost
Kauê Fernandes wins	41%	1.96	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	15%	5.25	✗ lost
Jalin Turner wins by Submission in R2	3%	23.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	26%	2.95	✓ won
Jalin Turner wins by Submission in R1	6%	13.00	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	62%	1.22	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO	47%	1.59	✓ won
Jalin Turner significant strikes over 69.5	11%	6.50	—
Jalin Turner wins by Submission in R2 or R3	5%	15.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	15%	4.80	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	8%	8.50	✗ lost
Kauê Fernandes takedowns over 1.5	16%	4.00	—
Fight ends by Submission in R2	5%	14.00	✗ lost
Jalin Turner wins by finish in Round 1	24%	2.70	✓ won
Kauê Fernandes takedowns over 0.5	35%	1.83	—
Total takedowns over 4.5	7%	9.00	—
Jalin Turner takedowns over 1.5	12%	5.00	—
Jalin Turner wins by KO/TKO in R3	4%	14.00	✗ lost
Kauê Fernandes wins by finish in Round 1	11%	5.00	✗ lost
Kauê Fernandes wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	13%	3.90	✗ lost
Kauê Fernandes wins by KO/TKO in R1	9%	6.00	✗ lost
Total knockdowns over 0.5	37%	1.35	—
Kauê Fernandes wins by KO/TKO	15%	3.20	✗ lost
Kauê Fernandes wins by KO or Sub	19%	2.55	✗ lost
Kauê Fernandes wins by KO/TKO in R2	5%	9.50	✗ lost
Jalin Turner wins by Submission in R3	1%	34.00	✗ lost
Kauê Fernandes wins by finish in Round 2	6%	7.00	✗ lost
Kauê Fernandes wins by Submission in R1 or R2	3%	12.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	6%	7.25	✗ lost
Kauê Fernandes wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	7%	6.00	✗ lost
Kauê Fernandes wins by Submission in R1	2%	19.00	✗ lost
Kauê Fernandes wins by SUB	4%	10.00	✗ lost
Kauê Fernandes wins by Submission in R2	1%	29.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	2%	19.00	✗ lost
Kauê Fernandes wins by finish in Round 1	11%	3.15	✗ lost
Kauê Fernandes takedowns over 2.5	4%	7.50	—
Kauê Fernandes wins by KO/TKO in R3	2%	12.50	✗ lost
Jalin Turner significant strikes over 79.5	2%	10.00	—

Dustin Stoltzfus

16-8-0

Winner

Dustin Stoltzfus

SUB · R2

✗ wrong

Mansur Abdul-Malik

9-1-1

▼

Model Prediction

Dustin Stoltzfus ✓ won 29%

KO 8%· Sub 5%· Dec 15%

Mansur Abdul-Malik 71%

KO 30%· Sub 15%· Dec 27%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Mansur Abdul-Malik wins	71%	1.14	missed
Method Mansur Abdul-Malik wins by KO/TKO	30%	1.85	missed
Finish round Finish in Round 1	32%	—	missed

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Dustin Stoltzfus wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	7%	34.00	✗ lost
Dustin Stoltzfus wins by KO/TKO in R1	4%	51.00	✗ lost
Dustin Stoltzfus wins by KO/TKO in R2	3%	81.00	✗ lost
Dustin Stoltzfus wins by KO/TKO	8%	26.00	✗ lost
Dustin Stoltzfus wins by KO or Decision value	23%	8.75	✗ lost
Dustin Stoltzfus wins by DEC	15%	11.50	✗ lost
Dustin Stoltzfus wins value	29%	5.80	✓ won
Dustin Stoltzfus wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	4%	46.00	✗ lost
Dustin Stoltzfus significant strikes over 49.5	23%	7.00	—
Dustin Stoltzfus wins by Decision	15%	9.50	✗ lost
Dustin Stoltzfus wins by Sub or Decision	21%	7.00	✓ won
Mansur Abdul-Malik wins by SUB	15%	9.25	✗ lost
Dustin Stoltzfus significant strikes over 39.5	32%	4.20	—
Mansur Abdul-Malik wins by Submission in R1 or R2	13%	10.50	✗ lost
Dustin Stoltzfus wins by KO or Sub	13%	10.00	✓ won
Mansur Abdul-Malik wins by Submission in R2	5%	26.00	✗ lost
Mansur Abdul-Malik wins by Submission in R1	8%	15.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	11%	11.00	✗ lost
Dustin Stoltzfus takedowns over 0.5	42%	2.88	—
Dustin Stoltzfus significant strikes over 29.5	46%	2.63	—
Fight ends by Submission	20%	6.00	✓ won
Fight goes to decision	42%	2.75	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	54%	2.10	✓ won
Fight goes to Decision	42%	2.65	✗ lost
Mansur Abdul-Malik wins by Submission in R2 or R3	6%	17.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	6%	17.00	✓ won
Mansur Abdul-Malik wins by Sub or Decision	41%	2.60	✗ lost
Dustin Stoltzfus significant strikes over 19.5	62%	1.72	—
Fight reaches Round 3	50%	2.04	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 99.5	20%	5.00	—
Dustin Stoltzfus wins by KO/TKO in R3	1%	101.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 79.5	32%	3.00	—
Total significant strikes over 49.5	55%	1.76	—
Total significant strikes over 89.5	25%	3.80	—
Total significant strikes over 69.5	39%	2.45	—
Total significant strikes over 109.5	15%	6.50	—
Total significant strikes over 59.5	46%	2.03	—
Total takedowns over 0.5	73%	1.27	—
Mansur Abdul-Malik wins by DEC	27%	3.45	✗ lost
Dustin Stoltzfus wins by finish in Round 1	7%	12.50	✗ lost
Dustin Stoltzfus takedowns over 1.5	16%	5.50	—
Total takedowns over 1.5	56%	1.59	—
Dustin Stoltzfus wins by finish in Round 1	7%	12.00	✗ lost
Mansur Abdul-Malik wins in R3+ or by Decision	35%	2.50	✗ lost
Mansur Abdul-Malik significant strikes over 19.5	63%	1.40	—
Finish before Round 3	51%	1.72	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 119.5	9%	9.00	—
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	19%	4.50	✓ won
Mansur Abdul-Malik takedowns over 0.5	57%	1.45	—
Mansur Abdul-Malik wins	71%	1.14	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	58%	1.41	✓ won
Dustin Stoltzfus wins by Submission in R1 or R2	5%	17.00	✓ won
Over 2.5 rounds	46%	1.66	✗ lost
Dustin Stoltzfus wins by Submission in R1	3%	26.00	✗ lost
Mansur Abdul-Malik significant strikes over 29.5	41%	1.83	—
Dustin Stoltzfus wins by SUB	5%	14.00	✓ won
Mansur Abdul-Malik wins by Submission in R3	2%	41.00	✗ lost
Mansur Abdul-Malik wins by KO or Sub	44%	1.59	✗ lost
Mansur Abdul-Malik wins by KO or Decision	57%	1.22	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	21%	3.25	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	12%	5.60	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	38%	1.77	✗ lost
Mansur Abdul-Malik significant strikes over 59.5	13%	5.00	—
Total takedowns over 2.5	34%	1.94	—
Mansur Abdul-Malik significant strikes over 49.5	19%	3.50	—
Mansur Abdul-Malik significant strikes over 69.5	8%	8.00	—
Mansur Abdul-Malik significant strikes over 39.5	24%	2.40	—
Dustin Stoltzfus wins by Submission in R2	2%	34.00	✓ won
Mansur Abdul-Malik wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	26%	2.20	✗ lost
Total knockdowns over 0.5	38%	1.52	—
Fight ends by Submission in R3	2%	23.00	✗ lost
Mansur Abdul-Malik wins by KO/TKO in R2	10%	5.80	✗ lost
Mansur Abdul-Malik wins by KO/TKO in R1	17%	3.35	✗ lost
Mansur Abdul-Malik wins by KO/TKO	30%	1.85	✗ lost
Mansur Abdul-Malik takedowns over 1.5	29%	1.80	—
Mansur Abdul-Malik wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	13%	3.80	✗ lost
Mansur Abdul-Malik wins by finish in Round 1	25%	1.90	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 3.5	19%	2.40	—
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	5%	8.75	✗ lost
Mansur Abdul-Malik wins by KO/TKO in R3	4%	9.25	✗ lost
Dustin Stoltzfus wins by Submission in R3	1%	51.00	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 4.5	10%	3.15	—
Mansur Abdul-Malik takedowns over 2.5	14%	2.25	—
Dustin Stoltzfus takedowns over 2.5	2%	9.00	—
Total takedowns over 5.5	1%	4.00	—
Mansur Abdul-Malik takedowns over 3.5	2%	2.80	—

Edson Barboza

24-14-0

Winner

Esteban Ribovics

KO/TKO · R2

✓ predicted

Esteban Ribovics

15-3-0

▼

Model Prediction

Edson Barboza 36%

KO 8%· Sub 3%· Dec 25%

Esteban Ribovics ✓ won 64%

KO 35%· Sub 7%· Dec 22%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Esteban Ribovics wins	64%	1.13	✓ predicted
Method Esteban Ribovics wins by KO/TKO	35%	1.53	✓ predicted
Finish round Finish in Round 1	22%	—	missed

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Edson Barboza wins by DEC value	25%	10.00	✗ lost
Edson Barboza wins by Sub or Decision value	28%	8.50	✗ lost
Edson Barboza wins by Decision value	25%	9.50	✗ lost
Edson Barboza wins value	36%	6.05	✗ lost
Edson Barboza significant strikes over 89.5	22%	9.50	—
Edson Barboza wins by KO or Decision value	32%	6.25	✗ lost
Edson Barboza significant strikes over 79.5	30%	6.50	—
Edson Barboza significant strikes over 69.5	40%	4.50	—
Edson Barboza significant strikes over 59.5	49%	3.30	—
Fight goes to decision	47%	3.25	✗ lost
Esteban Ribovics wins by Submission in R2	2%	61.00	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	47%	3.15	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	4%	41.00	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 2.5	20%	7.25	—
Edson Barboza wins by Submission in R2	1%	126.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 169.5	28%	5.10	—
Total significant strikes over 159.5	33%	4.30	—
Fight ends by Submission	10%	14.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 149.5	38%	3.60	—
Edson Barboza significant strikes over 49.5	56%	2.40	—
Total significant strikes over 139.5	43%	3.10	—
Total significant strikes over 179.5	21%	6.25	—
Edson Barboza wins by Submission in R2 or R3	2%	71.00	✗ lost
Edson Barboza wins by SUB	3%	41.00	✗ lost
Esteban Ribovics wins by SUB	7%	19.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 129.5	48%	2.70	—
Edson Barboza wins by Submission in R1 or R2	2%	51.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 119.5	52%	2.35	—
Esteban Ribovics wins by Submission in R1 or R2	5%	23.00	✗ lost
Edson Barboza significant strikes over 39.5	64%	1.91	—
Total takedowns over 1.5	30%	4.00	—
Fight ends by Submission in R1	4%	29.00	✗ lost
Edson Barboza wins by Submission in R1	1%	91.00	✗ lost
Edson Barboza wins by KO or Sub	11%	11.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 109.5	56%	2.10	—
Fight reaches Round 3	59%	1.98	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 99.5	60%	1.88	—
Edson Barboza significant strikes over 29.5	71%	1.57	—
Total significant strikes over 89.5	64%	1.72	—
Esteban Ribovics wins by Sub or Decision	29%	3.80	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 0.5	50%	2.20	—
Edson Barboza wins by Submission in R3	1%	151.00	✗ lost
Esteban Ribovics significant strikes over 69.5	45%	2.40	—
Esteban Ribovics significant strikes over 59.5	54%	2.00	—
Total significant strikes over 79.5	68%	1.58	—
Edson Barboza takedowns over 0.5	31%	3.40	—
Esteban Ribovics takedowns over 1.5	14%	7.50	—
Under 2.5 rounds	47%	2.25	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 69.5	72%	1.47	—
Fight ends by Submission in R3	2%	46.00	✗ lost
Esteban Ribovics wins by Submission in R3	2%	67.00	✗ lost
Edson Barboza significant strikes over 19.5	80%	1.30	—
Total significant strikes over 59.5	76%	1.37	—
Esteban Ribovics significant strikes over 79.5	34%	3.00	—
Esteban Ribovics takedowns over 0.5	26%	4.00	—
Esteban Ribovics significant strikes over 49.5	61%	1.67	—
Total significant strikes over 49.5	80%	1.27	—
Edson Barboza wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	6%	17.00	✗ lost
Esteban Ribovics wins by Decision	22%	4.50	✗ lost
Esteban Ribovics significant strikes over 39.5	68%	1.45	—
Total significant strikes over 189.5	13%	7.50	—
Edson Barboza wins by KO/TKO	8%	13.00	✗ lost
Esteban Ribovics wins by DEC	22%	4.40	✗ lost
Esteban Ribovics wins by Submission in R1	3%	34.00	✗ lost
Esteban Ribovics significant strikes over 29.5	76%	1.25	—
Esteban Ribovics significant strikes over 19.5	83%	1.12	—
Edson Barboza wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	4%	21.00	✗ lost
Edson Barboza wins by KO/TKO in R2	3%	34.00	✗ lost
Esteban Ribovics significant strikes over 89.5	24%	3.75	—
Esteban Ribovics significant strikes over 99.5	17%	5.00	—
Over 2.5 rounds	53%	1.57	✗ lost
Edson Barboza wins by KO/TKO in R1	3%	26.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	19%	4.30	✓ won
Edson Barboza wins by KO/TKO in R3	2%	46.00	✗ lost
Esteban Ribovics wins	64%	1.13	✓ won
Finish before Round 3	41%	1.76	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	15%	4.60	✓ won
Fight ends before decision	53%	1.31	✓ won
Esteban Ribovics significant strikes over 109.5	11%	6.50	—
Esteban Ribovics wins by KO or Decision	58%	1.16	✓ won
Esteban Ribovics wins by KO/TKO in R2	13%	5.10	✓ won
Edson Barboza takedowns over 1.5	9%	7.00	—
Edson Barboza wins by finish in Round 1	4%	14.00	✗ lost
Esteban Ribovics wins by KO or Sub	42%	1.45	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO	43%	1.40	✓ won
Esteban Ribovics wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	21%	2.75	✓ won
Esteban Ribovics wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	27%	2.05	✓ won
Esteban Ribovics wins by KO/TKO	35%	1.53	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	18%	3.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	10%	5.10	✗ lost
Esteban Ribovics wins by KO/TKO in R1	15%	3.25	✗ lost
Total knockdowns over 0.5	37%	1.29	—
Total significant strikes over 199.5	5%	9.00	—
Esteban Ribovics wins by KO/TKO in R3	8%	5.50	✗ lost
Esteban Ribovics wins by finish in Round 1	18%	1.94	✗ lost
Esteban Ribovics significant strikes over 119.5	4%	8.50	—

Chidi Njokuani

25-11-0

Winner

Chidi Njokuani

Decision (U) · R3

✗ wrong

Joel Álvarez

23-4-0

▼

Model Prediction

Chidi Njokuani ✓ won 26%

KO 10%· Sub 2%· Dec 14%

Joel Álvarez 74%

KO 22%· Sub 30%· Dec 21%

Charles Johnson

19-8-0

Winner

Charles Johnson

SUB · R3

✓ predicted

Eduardo Chapolin

15-3-0

▼

Model Prediction

Charles Johnson ✓ won 74%

KO 20%· Sub 22%· Dec 31%

Eduardo Chapolin 26%

KO 6%· Sub 6%· Dec 14%

Eric McConico

11-4-1

Winner

Donte Johnson

KO/TKO · R1

✓ predicted

Donte Johnson

8-0-0

▼

Model Prediction

Eric McConico 22%

KO 4%· Sub 4%· Dec 13%

Donte Johnson ✓ won 78%

KO 26%· Sub 5%· Dec 47%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Donte Johnson wins	78%	1.30	✓ predicted
Method Donte Johnson wins by Decision value	47%	4.50	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	60%	2.72	missed

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Donte Johnson wins by DEC value	47%	4.50	✗ lost
Donte Johnson wins by Sub or Decision value	52%	3.50	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	60%	2.72	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	60%	2.65	✗ lost
Donte Johnson wins in R3+ or by Decision value	53%	2.95	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	64%	2.25	✗ lost
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	68%	1.93	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 2	80%	1.36	✗ lost
Donte Johnson wins by KO or Decision	74%	1.41	✓ won
Donte Johnson wins	78%	1.30	✓ won
Donte Johnson takedowns over 0.5	66%	1.53	—
Total takedowns over 0.5	75%	1.23	—
Donte Johnson takedowns over 1.5	48%	1.91	—
Eric McConico wins by Sub or Decision	17%	5.10	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 1.5	56%	1.58	—
Donte Johnson significant strikes over 19.5	70%	1.25	—
Total significant strikes over 49.5	59%	1.43	—
Eric McConico wins by DEC	13%	6.25	✗ lost
Donte Johnson significant strikes over 29.5	54%	1.50	—
Eric McConico wins by SUB	4%	19.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 59.5	51%	1.58	—
Eric McConico wins by Submission in R1 or R2	3%	23.00	✗ lost
Eric McConico wins by Submission in R2	1%	61.00	✗ lost
Eric McConico wins by Decision	13%	6.00	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 2.5	39%	2.00	—
Eric McConico wins	22%	3.54	✗ lost
Donte Johnson significant strikes over 39.5	41%	1.83	—
Fight ends by Submission	9%	8.25	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 69.5	42%	1.75	—
Eric McConico wins by Submission in R1	2%	34.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	5%	15.00	✗ lost
Eric McConico significant strikes over 19.5	49%	1.40	—
Donte Johnson significant strikes over 49.5	28%	2.40	—
Total significant strikes over 79.5	33%	2.00	—
Eric McConico takedowns over 0.5	32%	2.10	—
Eric McConico wins by KO or Decision	17%	3.80	✗ lost
Donte Johnson significant strikes over 59.5	20%	3.30	—
Fight ends by Submission in R2	3%	23.00	✗ lost
Finish before Round 2	20%	2.99	✓ won
Donte Johnson wins by Submission in R1 or R2	4%	15.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 1	20%	2.90	✓ won
Donte Johnson wins by SUB	5%	12.00	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 3.5	23%	2.50	—
Donte Johnson takedowns over 2.5	23%	2.50	—
Total significant strikes over 89.5	25%	2.30	—
Under 2.5 rounds	36%	1.57	✓ won
Donte Johnson wins by Submission in R1	2%	23.00	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	40%	1.42	✓ won
Donte Johnson significant strikes over 69.5	12%	4.50	—
Donte Johnson wins by KO or Sub	31%	1.75	✓ won
Eric McConico wins by KO or Sub	8%	6.50	✗ lost
Eric McConico wins by Submission in R3	1%	71.00	✗ lost
Eric McConico significant strikes over 29.5	31%	1.72	—
Donte Johnson wins by KO/TKO in R1	14%	4.00	✓ won
Donte Johnson wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	22%	2.45	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	12%	4.30	✗ lost
Total knockdowns over 0.5	38%	1.40	—
Donte Johnson wins by KO/TKO	26%	1.98	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	16%	3.35	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission in R3	2%	31.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	31%	1.66	✓ won
Donte Johnson wins by Submission in R2	1%	34.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 99.5	19%	2.70	—
Donte Johnson wins by Submission in R2 or R3	2%	21.00	✗ lost
Eric McConico significant strikes over 39.5	20%	2.40	—
Donte Johnson wins by KO/TKO in R2	8%	5.80	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	9%	5.00	✗ lost
Donte Johnson wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	13%	3.60	✗ lost
Eric McConico significant strikes over 49.5	13%	3.40	—
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	7%	6.00	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 4.5	12%	3.40	—
Donte Johnson wins by Submission in R3	1%	46.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 109.5	12%	3.30	—
Donte Johnson wins by KO/TKO in R3	5%	8.25	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	6%	7.00	✗ lost
Eric McConico takedowns over 1.5	8%	4.50	—
Donte Johnson significant strikes over 79.5	5%	7.00	—
Eric McConico wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	3%	10.50	✗ lost
Eric McConico wins by KO/TKO	4%	8.50	✗ lost
Eric McConico wins by KO/TKO in R1	2%	16.00	✗ lost
Eric McConico significant strikes over 59.5	6%	5.00	—
Eric McConico wins by KO/TKO in R2	1%	23.00	✗ lost
Eric McConico wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	2%	14.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 119.5	6%	4.10	—
Eric McConico wins by KO/TKO in R3	1%	31.00	✗ lost
Donte Johnson takedowns over 3.5	4%	3.30	—
Total takedowns over 5.5	2%	4.50	—

Vicente Luque

24-12-1

Winner

Tresean Gore

Decision (U) · R3

✗ wrong

Tresean Gore

7-4-0

▼

Model Prediction

Vicente Luque 61%

KO 26%· Sub 9%· Dec 26%

Tresean Gore ✓ won 39%

KO 15%· Sub 9%· Dec 16%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Vicente Luque wins value	61%	16.00	missed
Finish round Finish in Round 1	31%	—	missed

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Vicente Luque wins value	61%	16.00	✗ lost

Lucas Fernando

14-3-0

Winner

Lucas Fernando

KO/TKO · R3

✓ predicted

Rafael Tobias

14-3-0

▼

Model Prediction

Lucas Fernando ✓ won 53%

KO 25%· Sub 9%· Dec 19%

Rafael Tobias 47%

KO 16%· Sub 13%· Dec 17%

Neil Magny

31-15-0

Winner

Neil Magny

KO/TKO · R2

Ramiz Brahimaj

13-6-0

▼

Model Prediction dead even — no pick

Neil Magny ✓ won 50%

KO 8%· Sub 9%· Dec 34%

Ramiz Brahimaj 50%

KO 15%· Sub 20%· Dec 16%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Ramiz Brahimaj wins	50%	1.64	missed
Method Ramiz Brahimaj wins by Submission	20%	2.50	missed
Finish round Finish in Round 1	26%	3.10	missed

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Ramiz Brahimaj wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	13%	12.00	✗ lost
Ramiz Brahimaj wins by KO/TKO	15%	10.00	✗ lost
Ramiz Brahimaj wins by KO/TKO in R1	8%	19.00	✗ lost
Ramiz Brahimaj wins by KO/TKO in R2	5%	26.00	✗ lost
Ramiz Brahimaj wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	7%	18.00	✗ lost
Neil Magny wins by DEC	34%	3.90	✗ lost
Ramiz Brahimaj wins by KO or Decision	31%	4.20	✗ lost
Neil Magny wins by Decision	34%	3.75	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	49%	2.50	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	49%	2.45	✗ lost
Neil Magny wins by Sub or Decision	42%	2.85	✗ lost
Neil Magny wins by KO or Decision	41%	2.80	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	11%	10.00	✗ lost
Neil Magny wins value	50%	2.27	✓ won
Over 2.5 rounds	53%	2.10	✗ lost
Ramiz Brahimaj wins in R3+ or by Decision	28%	3.90	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	22%	4.90	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	8%	13.00	✓ won
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	56%	1.82	✗ lost
Ramiz Brahimaj wins by DEC	16%	6.25	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 2	74%	1.31	✓ won
Neil Magny wins by Submission in R1 or R2	8%	11.50	✗ lost
Finish before Round 3	44%	1.91	✓ won
Neil Magny wins by Submission in R1	4%	19.00	✗ lost
Ramiz Brahimaj wins	50%	1.64	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	19%	4.40	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 1	26%	3.10	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	47%	1.66	✓ won
Ramiz Brahimaj wins by KO/TKO in R3	2%	41.00	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	51%	1.49	✓ won
Neil Magny wins by SUB	9%	8.75	✗ lost
Neil Magny wins by KO or Sub	16%	4.60	✓ won
Neil Magny wins by Submission in R2	3%	23.00	✗ lost
Ramiz Brahimaj wins by KO or Sub	35%	2.08	✗ lost
Neil Magny wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	7%	10.50	✓ won
Ramiz Brahimaj wins by Sub or Decision	36%	1.86	✗ lost
Neil Magny wins by KO/TKO in R1	4%	17.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	10%	6.00	✗ lost
Neil Magny wins by KO/TKO	8%	8.25	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission in R1	14%	4.20	✗ lost
Neil Magny wins by KO/TKO in R2	3%	21.00	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission	28%	2.03	✗ lost
Neil Magny wins by Submission in R2 or R3	4%	13.00	✗ lost
Ramiz Brahimaj wins by Submission in R1 or R2	17%	3.10	✗ lost
Ramiz Brahimaj wins by Submission in R2	7%	7.25	✗ lost
Ramiz Brahimaj wins by Submission in R1	10%	5.00	✗ lost
Ramiz Brahimaj wins by SUB	20%	2.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	3%	17.00	✗ lost
Neil Magny wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	4%	12.50	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	6%	6.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	4%	8.25	✗ lost
Neil Magny wins by Submission in R3	1%	26.00	✗ lost
Ramiz Brahimaj wins by Submission in R3	2%	10.00	✗ lost
Neil Magny wins by KO/TKO in R3	1%	26.00	✗ lost

Jeremiah Wells

13-4-1

Winner

Jeremiah Wells

SUB · R3

✗ wrong

Myktybek Orolbai

16-2-1

▼

Model Prediction

Jeremiah Wells ✓ won 13%

KO 3%· Sub 3%· Dec 7%

Myktybek Orolbai 87%

KO 32%· Sub 18%· Dec 37%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Myktybek Orolbai wins	87%	1.07	missed
Method Myktybek Orolbai wins by Decision	37%	3.25	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	44%	2.75	missed

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Jeremiah Wells wins by Submission in R3	1%	151.00	✓ won
Jeremiah Wells wins by Submission in R2 or R3	2%	71.00	✓ won
Myktybek Orolbai wins by KO/TKO in R3	12%	11.50	✗ lost
Myktybek Orolbai wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	25%	5.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	13%	10.50	✗ lost
Myktybek Orolbai wins in R3+ or by Decision value	57%	2.25	✗ lost
Jeremiah Wells wins by Submission in R2	1%	101.00	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 3	65%	1.93	✓ won
Over 2.5 rounds	55%	2.25	—
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	21%	5.90	✓ won
Fight goes to decision	44%	2.75	✗ lost
Myktybek Orolbai wins by DEC	37%	3.25	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	44%	2.65	✗ lost
Myktybek Orolbai wins by KO/TKO in R2	13%	8.75	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	14%	8.00	✗ lost
Myktybek Orolbai wins by KO or Decision	69%	1.60	✗ lost
Jeremiah Wells wins by Sub or Decision	10%	11.00	✓ won
Jeremiah Wells wins	13%	8.50	✓ won
Jeremiah Wells wins by SUB	3%	34.00	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	23%	4.40	✗ lost
Jeremiah Wells wins in R3+ or by Decision	8%	12.00	✓ won
Jeremiah Wells wins by DEC	7%	14.00	✗ lost
Myktybek Orolbai wins by KO/TKO	32%	2.95	✗ lost
Myktybek Orolbai wins	87%	1.07	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	35%	2.65	✗ lost
Jeremiah Wells wins by Submission in R1 or R2	2%	46.00	✗ lost
Myktybek Orolbai wins by Sub or Decision	56%	1.60	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	8%	11.00	✓ won
Jeremiah Wells wins by KO or Decision	10%	9.00	✗ lost
Jeremiah Wells wins by KO/TKO in R3	1%	81.00	✗ lost
Jeremiah Wells wins by KO or Sub	6%	14.00	✓ won
Fight ends before decision	56%	1.41	✓ won
Myktybek Orolbai wins by Submission in R3	7%	11.50	✗ lost
Myktybek Orolbai wins by KO or Sub	50%	1.53	✗ lost
Myktybek Orolbai wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	20%	3.75	✗ lost
Jeremiah Wells wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	2%	34.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	9%	8.25	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	45%	1.57	—
Myktybek Orolbai wins by Submission in R2	7%	8.75	✗ lost
Finish before Round 3	35%	1.81	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	21%	2.80	✓ won
Jeremiah Wells wins by KO/TKO in R2	1%	51.00	✗ lost
Jeremiah Wells wins by Submission in R1	1%	81.00	✗ lost
Myktybek Orolbai wins by SUB	18%	2.95	✗ lost
Jeremiah Wells wins by KO/TKO	3%	19.00	✗ lost
Myktybek Orolbai wins by Submission in R1 or R2	11%	3.75	✗ lost
Myktybek Orolbai wins by KO/TKO in R1	7%	5.80	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	8%	5.30	✗ lost
Jeremiah Wells wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	2%	23.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 1	12%	2.85	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	5%	5.50	✗ lost
Myktybek Orolbai wins by Submission in R1	4%	5.80	✗ lost