UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse — Results & Recap

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⟁ Past Events — Predictions vs. Actual Results

153 / 222

Correct Picks

68.9% accuracy · 22 events

8 / 13

Parlay Legs

7 parlays · −$314

−$775

Running P&L · opening

$1000 / event · Conservative · Kelly-weighted · closing: +$402

56 of 76 confident picks landed — when the model gives a fighter 70%+ it has been right 74% of the time

12–23 betting record with the same amount on every recommended bet (-13.4 units — early days, small sample)

Bankroll curve $1000 per event · Conservative tier · opening odds −$775

2026-06-15 peak $152 · trough $-843 2026-09-05

UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse 2026-09-05 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · −$52

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Mario Pinto wins	Ryan Spann vs Mario Pinto	1.35	$80	✓ won +$28
Dan Hooker wins	Dan Hooker vs Salahdine Parnasse	5.75	$80	✗ lost −$80

UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song 2026-08-29 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · −$4

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Julia Polastri wins	Xiong Jingnan vs Julia Polastri	1.45	—	⋯ pending
Nilson Rojas wins	Bilal Hasan vs Nilson Rojas	5.50	$80	✗ lost −$80
Denise Gomes wins	Yan Xiaonan vs Denise Gomes	2.32	$57	✓ won +$76

UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues 2026-08-22 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · −$111

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Terrance Chatman wins	Anthony Wint vs Terrance Chatman	8.00	$80	✗ lost −$80
Ryan Kuse wins	Marcio Barbosa vs Ryan Kuse	7.00	$31	✗ lost −$31

UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry 2026-08-15 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · −$80

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Gillian Robertson wins	Mackenzie Dern vs Gillian Robertson	2.72	$80	✗ lost −$80

UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld 2026-08-08 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · −$75

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Louie Sutherland wins	Henrique Da Silva Lopes vs Louie Sutherland	1.63	—	⋯ pending
Guilherme Pat wins	Steven Asplund vs Guilherme Pat	3.02	$49	✗ lost −$49
Jessie Rosas wins	Miles Johns vs Jessie Rosas	2.33	—	⋯ pending
Amanda Lemos wins	Amanda Lemos vs Alexia Thainara	3.02	$27	✗ lost −$27

UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez 2026-08-01 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · −$56

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Mateusz Rebecki wins	Kyle Prepolec vs Mateusz Rebecki	1.18	$80	✓ won +$14
Oban Elliott wins	Oban Elliott vs Michael Oliveira	3.57	$80	✗ lost −$80
Bogdan Grad wins	Dennis Buzukja vs Bogdan Grad	1.52	$62	✓ won +$32
Fight goes to Decision	Daniel Rodriguez vs Uros Medic	7.25	$22	✗ lost −$22

UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov 2026-07-25 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · −$102

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Nurullo Aliev wins	Mike Davis vs Nurullo Aliev	1.54	$80	✓ won +$43
Tyrell Fortune wins	Rizvan Kuniev vs Tyrell Fortune	3.34	$80	✗ lost −$80
Damian Rzepecki wins	Magomed Zaynukov vs Damian Rzepecki	3.73	$43	✗ lost −$43
Dustin Jacoby wins	Dustin Jacoby vs Muhammad Said	1.59	$23	✗ lost −$23

UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman 2026-07-18 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · +$38

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Chase Hooper wins	Chase Hooper vs Mitch Ramirez	1.27	$80	✓ won +$22
Christian Leroy Duncan wins	Jared Cannonier vs Christian Leroy Duncan	1.32	$80	✓ won +$26
Dricus Du Plessis wins by SUB	Kamaru Usman vs Dricus Du Plessis	9.25	$55	✗ lost −$55
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani wins	Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs Seokhyeon Ko	2.66	$28	✓ won +$46

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 2026-07-11 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly · −$200

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Elisha Ellison wins	Gable Steveson vs Elisha Ellison	10.00	$138	✗ lost −$138
Benoit Saint Denis wins	Paddy Pimblett vs Benoit Saint Denis	1.53	$62	✗ lost −$62

UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres 2026-06-27 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly · −$216

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Manuel Torres wins	Rafael Fiziev vs Manuel Torres	1.96	$115	✗ lost −$115
Eric Nolan wins by Sub or Decision	Eric Nolan vs Farman Hasanov	5.30	$70	✗ lost −$70
Matheus Camilo wins	Nazim Sadykhov vs Matheus Camilo	2.99	$48	✓ won +$95
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	Julius Walker vs Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev	3.92	$44	✗ lost −$44
Fight reaches Round 2	Julius Walker vs Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev	2.17	$44	✗ lost −$44
Michel Pereira wins	Michel Pereira vs Shara Magomedov	3.82	$37	✗ lost −$37

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi 2 2026-06-20 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly · +$109

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Luana Santos wins	Karol Rosa vs Luana Santos	1.97	$157	✓ won +$152
Kyoji Horiguchi wins by KO/TKO	Kyoji Horiguchi vs Manel Kape	11.50	$43	✗ lost −$43

UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje 2026-06-15 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly · −$26

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Josh Hokit wins by KO or Decision	Derrick Lewis vs Josh Hokit	1.78	$73	✓ won +$57
Ilia Topuria wins by DEC	Justin Gaethje vs Ilia Topuria	13.00	$57	✗ lost −$57
Steve Garcia wins	Steve Garcia vs Diego Lopes	2.48	$52	✗ lost −$52
Bo Nickal wins by KO or Decision	Kyle Daukaus vs Bo Nickal	1.71	$38	✓ won +$27

8 / 13

Legs landed

61.5% of picks

2 / 7

Parlays won

every leg has to land

−$314

Profit

$100 on each

Only 7 parlays settled so far — far too few to judge the profit either way. On 93 past cards, parlays picked this way landed 61% of the time.

UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse 2026-09-05 · +$107

2-leg @ 2.07 Mario Pinto wins @ 1.35Felipe Lima wins @ 1.53 ✓ WON +$107

UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song 2026-08-29 · −$100

2-leg @ 1.81 Julia Polastri wins @ 1.45Ends in Round 3+ / Decision @ 1.25 ✗ LOST −$100

UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues 2026-08-22 · −$100

2-leg @ 2.31 Fight reaches Round 2 @ 1.30Gauge Young wins @ 1.78 ✗ LOST −$100

UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez 2026-08-01 · +$79

2-leg @ 1.79 Mateusz Rebecki wins @ 1.18Bogdan Grad wins @ 1.52 ✓ WON +$79

UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov 2026-07-25 · −$100

2-leg @ 2.45 Dustin Jacoby wins @ 1.59Nurullo Aliev wins @ 1.54 ✗ LOST −$100

UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman 2026-07-18 · −$100

2-leg @ 2.24 Christian Leroy Duncan wins @ 1.32Alvin Hines wins @ 1.70 ✗ LOST −$100

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 2026-07-11 · −$100

2-leg @ 1.99 Damian Pinas wins @ 1.46Fight reaches Round 2 @ 1.36 ✗ LOST −$100

UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse 6/14 · 43%

2026-09-05

Dan Hooker

24-14-0

Winner

Salahdine Parnasse

KO/TKO · R1

✗ wrong

Salahdine Parnasse

23-2-0

▼

Model Prediction

Dan Hooker 75%

KO 30%· Sub 22%· Dec 23%

Salahdine Parnasse ✓ won 25%

KO 11%· Sub 3%· Dec 11%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Dan Hooker wins value	75%	4.90	missed
Method Dan Hooker wins by KO/TKO value	30%	9.50	missed
Finish round Finish in Round 1	31%	—	✓ predicted

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	52%	19.00	✗ lost
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	52%	11.00	✗ lost
Dan Hooker wins by finish in Round 1 value	24%	15.00	✗ lost
Dan Hooker wins value	75%	4.90	✗ lost
Dan Hooker wins by Submission in R1	10%	34.00	✗ lost
Dan Hooker wins by Sub or Decision value	45%	7.50	✗ lost
Dan Hooker wins by KO/TKO in R1 value	14%	23.00	✗ lost
Dan Hooker wins by KO or Decision value	53%	6.00	✗ lost
Dan Hooker wins by KO or Sub value	52%	6.00	✗ lost
Dan Hooker wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2 value	22%	14.00	✗ lost
Dan Hooker wins by Submission in R1 or R2 value	16%	19.00	✗ lost
Dan Hooker wins by DEC value	23%	13.00	✗ lost
Dan Hooker wins in R4+ or by Decision value	32%	9.00	✗ lost
Dan Hooker wins by SUB value	22%	13.00	✗ lost
Dan Hooker wins by KO/TKO value	30%	9.50	✗ lost
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	52%	5.00	✗ lost
Dan Hooker wins by finish in Round 2 value	14%	18.00	✗ lost
Dan Hooker wins by Submission in R2	6%	41.00	✗ lost
Dan Hooker wins by Submission in R2, R3 or R4	10%	23.00	✗ lost
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	52%	4.50	✗ lost
Dan Hooker wins by KO/TKO in R2	8%	29.00	✗ lost
Dan Hooker wins by KO/TKO in R2, R3 or R4	14%	16.00	✗ lost
Dan Hooker wins by Submission in R4	3%	81.00	✗ lost
Dan Hooker wins by finish in Round 1 value	24%	7.75	✗ lost
Dan Hooker wins by KO/TKO in R4 or R5	6%	34.00	✗ lost
Dan Hooker wins by Submission in R4 or R5	4%	46.00	✗ lost
Dan Hooker wins by KO/TKO in R4	4%	51.00	✗ lost
Dan Hooker significant strikes over 109.5	16%	11.00	—
Dan Hooker significant strikes over 99.5	20%	9.00	—
Fight goes to decision	34%	5.20	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	34%	5.00	✗ lost
Dan Hooker significant strikes over 89.5	23%	7.00	—
Dan Hooker significant strikes over 79.5	28%	5.50	—
Dan Hooker wins by Submission in R3	2%	81.00	✗ lost
Dan Hooker wins by finish in Round 3	4%	34.00	✗ lost
Dan Hooker wins by Submission in R5	1%	101.00	✗ lost
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	52%	2.79	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 5	38%	3.75	✗ lost
Dan Hooker significant strikes over 69.5	34%	4.20	—
Dan Hooker wins by KO/TKO in R5	2%	71.00	✗ lost
Dan Hooker significant strikes over 59.5	40%	3.30	—
Dan Hooker wins by KO/TKO in R3	2%	51.00	✗ lost
Dan Hooker significant strikes over 49.5	46%	2.63	—
Under 2.5 rounds	51%	2.25	✓ won
Dan Hooker significant strikes over 39.5	53%	2.10	—
Dan Hooker significant strikes over 29.5	64%	1.72	—
Dan Hooker takedowns over 1.5	20%	5.50	—
Fight ends by Submission in R1	12%	9.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 139.5	30%	3.40	—
Total significant strikes over 129.5	33%	3.05	—
Total significant strikes over 119.5	37%	2.75	—
Dan Hooker significant strikes over 19.5	74%	1.36	—
Total significant strikes over 149.5	27%	3.70	—
Total significant strikes over 109.5	40%	2.45	—
Finish before Round 2	31%	3.14	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 99.5	43%	2.25	—
Dan Hooker takedowns over 0.5	41%	2.40	—
Total significant strikes over 159.5	23%	4.20	—
Total significant strikes over 89.5	47%	2.03	—
Total significant strikes over 69.5	55%	1.69	—
Total significant strikes over 79.5	50%	1.86	—
Total significant strikes over 59.5	61%	1.52	—
Total significant strikes over 49.5	67%	1.38	—
Fight ends by Submission	25%	3.60	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 0.5	71%	1.26	—
Salahdine Parnasse wins by DEC	11%	7.75	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	19%	4.25	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 169.5	17%	4.70	—
Total takedowns over 1.5	49%	1.65	—
Over 2.5 rounds	49%	1.57	✗ lost
Salahdine Parnasse significant strikes over 19.5	63%	1.20	—
Fight ends before decision	66%	1.14	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission in R2	7%	11.00	✗ lost
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	52%	1.40	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R4	3%	23.00	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 2.5	34%	2.00	—
Salahdine Parnasse significant strikes over 29.5	48%	1.40	—
Salahdine Parnasse significant strikes over 39.5	40%	1.67	—
Fight ends by KO/TKO	41%	1.59	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 179.5	12%	5.40	—
Salahdine Parnasse significant strikes over 49.5	31%	2.00	—
Salahdine Parnasse significant strikes over 69.5	20%	2.88	—
Salahdine Parnasse significant strikes over 59.5	24%	2.40	—
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R4	5%	11.50	✗ lost
Salahdine Parnasse significant strikes over 79.5	16%	3.50	—
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	11%	5.25	✗ lost
Salahdine Parnasse significant strikes over 89.5	12%	4.33	—
Salahdine Parnasse wins in R4+ or by Decision	14%	3.80	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R5	2%	31.00	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 3.5	21%	2.40	—
Salahdine Parnasse takedowns over 0.5	32%	1.45	—
Total knockdowns over 0.5	38%	1.25	—
Salahdine Parnasse wins by Sub or Decision	14%	3.05	✗ lost
Salahdine Parnasse significant strikes over 99.5	8%	5.00	—
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R5	3%	15.00	✗ lost
Salahdine Parnasse takedowns over 1.5	20%	1.91	—
Fight ends by Submission in R3	2%	18.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 189.5	6%	6.00	—
Salahdine Parnasse wins by KO or Decision	22%	1.54	✓ won
Total takedowns over 4.5	11%	3.15	—
Salahdine Parnasse takedowns over 2.5	14%	2.30	—
Salahdine Parnasse wins	25%	1.18	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	3%	8.50	✗ lost
Salahdine Parnasse significant strikes over 109.5	4%	6.00	—
Salahdine Parnasse wins by KO/TKO in R1	5%	4.80	✓ won
Salahdine Parnasse wins by finish in Round 1	7%	3.60	✓ won
Salahdine Parnasse takedowns over 3.5	8%	2.88	—
Salahdine Parnasse wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	8%	2.80	✓ won
Salahdine Parnasse wins by KO/TKO	11%	1.85	✓ won
Salahdine Parnasse wins by KO or Sub	14%	1.34	✓ won
Salahdine Parnasse wins by Submission in R1	2%	11.00	✗ lost
Salahdine Parnasse wins by KO/TKO in R4 or R5	2%	8.50	✗ lost
Salahdine Parnasse wins by KO/TKO in R2	3%	6.00	✗ lost
Salahdine Parnasse wins by KO/TKO in R4	1%	13.00	✗ lost
Salahdine Parnasse wins by Submission in R1 or R2	2%	6.75	✗ lost
Salahdine Parnasse wins by finish in Round 2	4%	4.50	✗ lost
Salahdine Parnasse wins by KO/TKO in R2, R3 or R4	5%	3.20	✗ lost
Salahdine Parnasse wins by SUB	3%	4.60	✗ lost
Salahdine Parnasse wins by Submission in R2, R3 or R4	2%	7.75	✗ lost
Salahdine Parnasse wins by Submission in R4 or R5	1%	19.00	✗ lost
Salahdine Parnasse wins by KO/TKO in R5	1%	17.00	✗ lost
Salahdine Parnasse wins by Submission in R2	1%	13.00	✗ lost
Salahdine Parnasse wins by finish in Round 1	7%	1.65	✓ won
Total knockdowns over 1.5	2%	3.80	—
Salahdine Parnasse wins by finish in Round 3	1%	7.25	✗ lost
Salahdine Parnasse wins by KO/TKO in R3	1%	9.50	✗ lost
Salahdine Parnasse takedowns over 4.5	2%	4.00	—
Salahdine Parnasse significant strikes over 119.5	1%	7.50	—
Total significant strikes over 199.5	1%	6.75	—

Farés Ziam

18-4-0

Winner

Axel Sola

KO/TKO · R1

✗ wrong

Axel Sola

11-1-1

▼

Model Prediction

Farés Ziam 56%

KO 11%· Sub 5%· Dec 40%

Axel Sola ✓ won 44%

KO 13%· Sub 12%· Dec 20%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Farés Ziam wins	56%	1.64	missed
Method Farés Ziam wins by Decision	40%	2.60	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	60%	2.36	missed

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Axel Sola wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	11%	11.50	✓ won
Axel Sola wins by KO or Sub	24%	5.10	✓ won
Axel Sola wins by KO/TKO in R2	5%	26.00	✗ lost
Axel Sola wins by KO/TKO	13%	9.25	✓ won
Axel Sola wins by Submission in R1 or R2	10%	11.00	✗ lost
Axel Sola wins by SUB	12%	9.25	✗ lost
Axel Sola wins by KO/TKO in R1	6%	17.00	✓ won
Farés Ziam wins by Decision	40%	2.62	✗ lost
Finish before Round 3	34%	3.03	✓ won
Farés Ziam wins by DEC	40%	2.60	✗ lost
Axel Sola wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	6%	16.00	✗ lost
Axel Sola wins by finish in Round 1	12%	8.50	✓ won
Axel Sola wins	44%	2.27	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	15%	6.75	✗ lost
Axel Sola wins by Submission in R2	4%	23.00	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	37%	2.62	✓ won
Axel Sola wins by Submission in R1	6%	17.00	✗ lost
Farés Ziam wins by Sub or Decision	45%	2.12	✗ lost
Axel Sola wins in R3+ or by Decision	29%	3.25	✗ lost
Farés Ziam wins by KO or Decision	50%	1.88	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	40%	2.36	✓ won
Fight reaches Round 2	80%	1.17	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	60%	1.54	✗ lost
Farés Ziam significant strikes over 19.5	79%	1.17	—
Farés Ziam wins	56%	1.64	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	9%	10.50	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	63%	1.44	✗ lost
Axel Sola wins by KO or Decision	33%	2.75	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO	23%	3.90	✓ won
Total takedowns over 0.5	82%	1.10	—
Total significant strikes over 49.5	71%	1.26	—
Axel Sola significant strikes over 29.5	57%	1.57	—
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	11%	7.75	✓ won
Axel Sola significant strikes over 19.5	72%	1.22	—
Axel Sola wins by Sub or Decision	32%	2.75	✗ lost
Farés Ziam takedowns over 0.5	62%	1.40	—
Farés Ziam significant strikes over 29.5	61%	1.40	—
Fight ends by Submission	17%	5.10	✗ lost
Total knockdowns over 0.5	38%	2.25	—
Total significant strikes over 59.5	61%	1.39	—
Fight ends by Submission in R2	6%	13.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	8%	9.75	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 69.5	50%	1.57	—
Axel Sola significant strikes over 39.5	37%	2.10	—
Axel Sola wins by DEC	20%	3.70	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 1.5	61%	1.23	—
Axel Sola wins by finish in Round 1	12%	6.25	✓ won
Farés Ziam takedowns over 1.5	43%	1.72	—
Axel Sola takedowns over 0.5	46%	1.57	—
Farés Ziam significant strikes over 39.5	42%	1.72	—
Axel Sola significant strikes over 59.5	16%	4.50	—
Farés Ziam wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	9%	7.50	✗ lost
Axel Sola significant strikes over 49.5	22%	3.10	—
Axel Sola significant strikes over 69.5	9%	7.00	—
Farés Ziam wins by KO/TKO	11%	6.00	✗ lost
Farés Ziam wins by KO/TKO in R2	4%	16.00	✗ lost
Farés Ziam wins by KO/TKO in R1	5%	12.00	✗ lost
Farés Ziam wins by KO or Sub	16%	3.90	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 79.5	32%	1.82	—
Axel Sola wins by KO/TKO in R3	2%	34.00	✗ lost
Farés Ziam takedowns over 2.5	29%	2.00	—
Total takedowns over 2.5	40%	1.40	—
Farés Ziam significant strikes over 49.5	24%	2.30	—
Farés Ziam wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	5%	10.00	✗ lost
Axel Sola takedowns over 1.5	28%	1.91	—
Axel Sola wins by Submission in R3	2%	34.00	✗ lost
Farés Ziam wins by Submission in R1 or R2	4%	11.50	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 109.5	16%	3.20	—
Total significant strikes over 99.5	19%	2.60	—
Total significant strikes over 119.5	12%	4.10	—
Farés Ziam significant strikes over 59.5	15%	3.30	—
Total significant strikes over 89.5	23%	2.15	—
Farés Ziam wins by SUB	5%	9.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	5%	9.00	✗ lost
Farés Ziam wins by Submission in R1	3%	19.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 129.5	9%	5.30	—
Farés Ziam wins by Submission in R2	2%	23.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	3%	14.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	2%	19.00	✗ lost
Farés Ziam wins by Submission in R2 or R3	3%	15.00	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 3.5	24%	1.62	—
Farés Ziam wins by finish in Round 1	8%	5.00	✗ lost
Farés Ziam takedowns over 3.5	14%	2.60	—
Axel Sola takedowns over 2.5	13%	2.50	—
Total significant strikes over 139.5	5%	6.75	—
Total takedowns over 4.5	16%	1.95	—
Axel Sola significant strikes over 79.5	3%	10.00	—
Farés Ziam wins by KO/TKO in R3	1%	21.00	✗ lost
Farés Ziam significant strikes over 69.5	6%	4.50	—
Farés Ziam wins by Submission in R3	1%	34.00	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 5.5	7%	2.30	—
Total significant strikes over 149.5	1%	8.75	—

Michael Page

25-3-0

Winner

Michael Page

Decision (U) · R3

✓ predicted

Nursulton Ruziboev

36-9-2

▼

Model Prediction

Michael Page ✓ won 56%

KO 25%· Sub 3%· Dec 27%

Nursulton Ruziboev 44%

KO 13%· Sub 17%· Dec 14%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Michael Page wins	56%	1.46	✓ predicted
Method Michael Page wins by Decision	27%	2.30	✓ predicted
Finish round Goes the distance	41%	2.03	✓ predicted

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Michael Page takedowns over 0.5	43%	8.50	—
Total significant strikes over 109.5	14%	10.00	—
Total significant strikes over 99.5	19%	7.25	—
Finish before Round 2	33%	4.00	✗ lost
Nursulton Ruziboev wins by finish in Round 1	17%	7.50	✗ lost
Nursulton Ruziboev wins by KO or Sub	30%	4.25	✗ lost
Nursulton Ruziboev wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	11%	11.50	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 89.5	24%	5.10	—
Nursulton Ruziboev wins by KO/TKO	13%	9.75	✗ lost
Nursulton Ruziboev wins by KO/TKO in R1	7%	17.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	22%	5.70	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	12%	10.50	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	54%	2.25	✗ lost
Nursulton Ruziboev significant strikes over 49.5	12%	10.00	—
Nursulton Ruziboev wins value	44%	2.74	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	21%	5.80	✗ lost
Michael Page wins by Submission in R1 or R2	3%	41.00	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	59%	2.03	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 79.5	32%	3.75	—
Nursulton Ruziboev wins by Submission in R1	10%	12.00	✗ lost
Michael Page wins by Submission in R1	2%	61.00	✗ lost
Nursulton Ruziboev wins by Submission in R1 or R2	15%	7.75	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 0.5	74%	1.54	—
Nursulton Ruziboev significant strikes over 39.5	21%	5.50	—
Nursulton Ruziboev wins by SUB	17%	6.50	✗ lost
Nursulton Ruziboev wins by KO or Decision	27%	4.10	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	38%	2.90	✗ lost
Nursulton Ruziboev wins in R3+ or by Decision	22%	5.00	✗ lost
Nursulton Ruziboev wins by Sub or Decision	32%	3.45	✗ lost
Michael Page wins by KO/TKO in R1	14%	7.50	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 69.5	39%	2.75	—
Michael Page wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	22%	4.80	✗ lost
Michael Page wins by SUB	3%	31.00	✗ lost
Michael Page wins by KO or Sub	29%	3.60	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	17%	5.90	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 1.5	52%	1.93	—
Michael Page wins by Submission in R2	1%	101.00	✗ lost
Michael Page wins by KO/TKO	25%	3.90	✗ lost
Michael Page wins by finish in Round 1	16%	6.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 59.5	46%	2.12	—
Nursulton Ruziboev wins by KO/TKO in R2	4%	26.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 49.5	56%	1.69	—
Nursulton Ruziboev wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	5%	17.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	11%	8.25	✗ lost
Michael Page significant strikes over 19.5	66%	1.36	—
Fight ends by Submission in R2	6%	15.00	✗ lost
Nursulton Ruziboev wins by DEC	14%	6.25	✗ lost
Michael Page wins by Submission in R2 or R3	1%	61.00	✗ lost
Nursulton Ruziboev significant strikes over 29.5	32%	2.80	—
Nursulton Ruziboev wins by finish in Round 1	17%	5.10	✗ lost
Michael Page significant strikes over 29.5	48%	1.80	—
Nursulton Ruziboev wins by Submission in R2	5%	17.00	✗ lost
Michael Page significant strikes over 39.5	32%	2.63	—
Michael Page significant strikes over 49.5	20%	4.20	—
Fight reaches Round 2	67%	1.22	✓ won
Michael Page wins	56%	1.46	✓ won
Michael Page wins by KO/TKO in R2	7%	11.00	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 2.5	33%	2.40	—
Michael Page wins by KO or Decision	52%	1.49	✓ won
Nursulton Ruziboev significant strikes over 19.5	45%	1.72	—
Total knockdowns over 0.5	38%	2.05	—
Michael Page wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	11%	7.00	✗ lost
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	50%	1.48	✓ won
Nursulton Ruziboev wins by KO/TKO in R3	2%	41.00	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	41%	1.73	✓ won
Michael Page wins by finish in Round 1	16%	4.40	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	46%	1.57	✓ won
Fight goes to Decision	41%	1.71	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	8%	8.50	✗ lost
Nursulton Ruziboev takedowns over 0.5	42%	1.62	—
Michael Page wins by Sub or Decision	30%	2.20	✓ won
Michael Page significant strikes over 59.5	9%	7.00	—
Fight ends by Submission in R3	3%	23.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	5%	12.00	✗ lost
Michael Page wins by DEC	27%	2.30	✓ won
Nursulton Ruziboev wins by Submission in R3	2%	26.00	✗ lost
Michael Page wins by Decision	27%	2.25	✓ won
Total takedowns over 3.5	18%	3.20	—
Michael Page wins by KO/TKO in R3	3%	15.00	✗ lost
Nursulton Ruziboev takedowns over 1.5	22%	2.00	—
Nursulton Ruziboev takedowns over 2.5	12%	2.60	—
Total takedowns over 4.5	6%	4.50	—
Nursulton Ruziboev takedowns over 3.5	2%	3.50	—

Punahele Soriano

13-4-0

Winner

Daniil Donchenko

Decision (U) · R3

✓ predicted

Daniil Donchenko

14-2-0

▼

Model Prediction

Punahele Soriano 27%

KO 10%· Sub 3%· Dec 15%

Daniil Donchenko ✓ won 73%

KO 40%· Sub 2%· Dec 31%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Daniil Donchenko wins	73%	1.42	✓ predicted
Method Daniil Donchenko wins by KO/TKO	40%	2.15	missed
Finish round Finish in Round 1	29%	2.95	missed

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Daniil Donchenko wins by KO or Sub value	41%	3.75	✗ lost
Daniil Donchenko wins by Decision value	31%	4.50	✓ won
Daniil Donchenko wins by DEC value	31%	4.40	✓ won
Fight goes to decision	46%	2.61	✓ won
Fight goes to Decision	46%	2.55	✓ won
Over 2.5 rounds	51%	2.25	✓ won
Fight reaches Round 3	56%	1.93	✓ won
Daniil Donchenko wins by KO or Decision	71%	1.49	✓ won
Daniil Donchenko wins	73%	1.42	✓ won
Punahele Soriano significant strikes over 19.5	76%	1.25	—
Total takedowns over 0.5	72%	1.29	—
Daniil Donchenko wins by KO/TKO in R1	22%	4.20	✗ lost
Punahele Soriano significant strikes over 29.5	59%	1.53	—
Finish before Round 2	29%	3.04	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	27%	3.30	✗ lost
Daniil Donchenko significant strikes over 19.5	78%	1.14	—
Fight ends by finish in Round 1	29%	2.95	✗ lost
Daniil Donchenko wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	33%	2.60	✗ lost
Daniil Donchenko wins by KO/TKO	40%	2.15	✗ lost
Punahele Soriano wins by DEC	15%	5.80	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 49.5	68%	1.25	—
Punahele Soriano wins by Sub or Decision	17%	4.80	✗ lost
Daniil Donchenko wins by KO or Sub	41%	1.97	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	49%	1.64	✗ lost
Punahele Soriano wins by Decision	15%	5.50	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 59.5	60%	1.35	—
Punahele Soriano significant strikes over 39.5	44%	1.83	—
Under 2.5 rounds	49%	1.61	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	54%	1.46	✗ lost
Punahele Soriano wins	27%	2.90	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 1.5	46%	1.67	—
Punahele Soriano takedowns over 0.5	50%	1.53	—
Punahele Soriano wins by KO or Decision	24%	3.10	✗ lost
Daniil Donchenko significant strikes over 29.5	58%	1.30	—
Total significant strikes over 69.5	52%	1.45	—
Daniil Donchenko wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	18%	4.10	✗ lost
Daniil Donchenko takedowns over 1.5	15%	5.00	—
Punahele Soriano significant strikes over 49.5	31%	2.37	—
Total significant strikes over 79.5	45%	1.57	—
Daniil Donchenko wins by KO/TKO in R2	11%	6.25	✗ lost
Daniil Donchenko takedowns over 0.5	28%	2.50	—
Daniil Donchenko wins by KO/TKO in R3	7%	10.00	✗ lost
Punahele Soriano wins by KO/TKO in R1	5%	12.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	14%	4.75	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 89.5	38%	1.71	—
Total takedowns over 2.5	31%	2.10	—
Punahele Soriano takedowns over 1.5	32%	2.00	—
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	15%	4.25	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	8%	7.50	✗ lost
Daniil Donchenko significant strikes over 39.5	44%	1.45	—
Punahele Soriano significant strikes over 59.5	21%	3.00	—
Punahele Soriano wins by KO or Sub	12%	5.00	✗ lost
Punahele Soriano wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	8%	7.50	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 99.5	32%	1.89	—
Daniil Donchenko significant strikes over 49.5	34%	1.72	—
Punahele Soriano wins by Submission in R1	1%	41.00	✗ lost
Punahele Soriano wins by KO/TKO	10%	6.00	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 3.5	21%	2.70	—
Total significant strikes over 109.5	25%	2.08	—
Daniil Donchenko significant strikes over 59.5	25%	2.00	—
Punahele Soriano wins by Submission in R1 or R2	2%	23.00	✗ lost
Punahele Soriano wins by SUB	3%	19.00	✗ lost
Total knockdowns over 0.5	38%	1.26	—
Punahele Soriano significant strikes over 69.5	13%	3.75	—
Total takedowns over 4.5	13%	3.60	—
Total significant strikes over 119.5	21%	2.30	—
Daniil Donchenko significant strikes over 69.5	19%	2.50	—
Punahele Soriano takedowns over 2.5	18%	2.50	—
Fight ends by Submission in R1	2%	19.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	4%	10.00	✗ lost
Punahele Soriano wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	4%	9.75	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 129.5	16%	2.60	—
Daniil Donchenko significant strikes over 79.5	13%	3.10	—
Punahele Soriano wins by KO/TKO in R2	3%	14.00	✗ lost
Punahele Soriano wins by Submission in R2	1%	51.00	✗ lost
Punahele Soriano wins by KO/TKO in R3	2%	21.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 139.5	11%	2.95	—
Fight ends by Submission in R2	1%	26.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	1%	41.00	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 5.5	6%	4.90	—
Daniil Donchenko wins by SUB	2%	17.00	✗ lost
Daniil Donchenko wins by Submission in R1	1%	31.00	✗ lost
Daniil Donchenko wins by Submission in R1 or R2	1%	19.00	✗ lost
Daniil Donchenko significant strikes over 89.5	7%	3.75	—
Punahele Soriano significant strikes over 79.5	5%	5.00	—
Daniil Donchenko wins by Submission in R2 or R3	1%	31.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 149.5	7%	3.35	—
Punahele Soriano takedowns over 3.5	6%	3.40	—
Total knockdowns over 1.5	2%	4.10	—
Total significant strikes over 159.5	2%	3.90	—

Trevor Peek

9-3-0

Winner

Kurtis Campbell

SUB · R3

✓ predicted

Kurtis Campbell

8-1-0

▼

Model Prediction

Trevor Peek 47%

KO 16%· Sub 8%· Dec 24%

Kurtis Campbell ✓ won 53%

KO 6%· Sub 4%· Dec 43%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Kurtis Campbell wins	53%	1.23	✓ predicted
Method Kurtis Campbell wins by Decision value	43%	3.50	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	67%	2.64	missed

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Trevor Peek wins by Submission in R1	4%	81.00	✗ lost
Trevor Peek wins by Submission in R1 or R2	6%	51.00	✗ lost
Trevor Peek wins by SUB	8%	34.00	✗ lost
Trevor Peek wins by Sub or Decision value	31%	8.00	✗ lost
Trevor Peek wins by Submission in R3	2%	151.00	✗ lost
Trevor Peek wins in R3+ or by Decision value	35%	7.00	✗ lost
Trevor Peek wins by DEC value	24%	9.25	✗ lost
Trevor Peek wins by Submission in R2	2%	101.00	✗ lost
Trevor Peek wins value	47%	4.20	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	67%	2.64	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	67%	2.55	✗ lost
Trevor Peek wins by KO or Decision value	39%	4.30	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	71%	2.20	—
Kurtis Campbell wins by DEC value	43%	3.50	✗ lost
Kurtis Campbell wins by Decision value	43%	3.25	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 3	74%	1.90	✓ won
Trevor Peek wins by KO or Sub	23%	6.00	✗ lost
Trevor Peek wins by finish in Round 1	12%	10.00	✗ lost
Trevor Peek wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	12%	8.75	✗ lost
Trevor Peek wins by KO/TKO	16%	6.75	✗ lost
Trevor Peek wins by KO/TKO in R1	8%	13.00	✗ lost
Kurtis Campbell wins by KO or Decision	50%	1.99	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 1.5	69%	1.37	—
Total takedowns over 2.5	56%	1.68	—
Total takedowns over 0.5	83%	1.11	—
Trevor Peek wins by finish in Round 1	12%	7.75	✗ lost
Trevor Peek significant strikes over 19.5	75%	1.17	—
Trevor Peek takedowns over 1.5	20%	4.50	—
Trevor Peek wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	8%	11.50	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 3.5	42%	2.05	—
Kurtis Campbell takedowns over 0.5	67%	1.28	—
Kurtis Campbell takedowns over 1.5	52%	1.62	—
Trevor Peek significant strikes over 29.5	61%	1.36	—
Trevor Peek takedowns over 0.5	43%	1.91	—
Trevor Peek wins by KO/TKO in R2	4%	19.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 49.5	66%	1.22	—
Kurtis Campbell wins by Sub or Decision	47%	1.66	✓ won
Kurtis Campbell takedowns over 2.5	40%	1.91	—
Trevor Peek wins by KO/TKO in R3	3%	23.00	✗ lost
Trevor Peek wins by finish in Round 2	6%	12.00	✗ lost
Kurtis Campbell significant strikes over 19.5	68%	1.12	—
Total significant strikes over 59.5	58%	1.29	—
Total takedowns over 4.5	27%	2.65	—
Trevor Peek significant strikes over 39.5	46%	1.57	—
Kurtis Campbell significant strikes over 29.5	55%	1.28	—
Total significant strikes over 69.5	50%	1.37	—
Kurtis Campbell takedowns over 3.5	28%	2.40	—
Kurtis Campbell wins	53%	1.23	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	11%	5.60	✗ lost
Total knockdowns over 0.5	38%	1.62	—
Fight ends by KO/TKO	22%	2.75	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 79.5	38%	1.46	—
Kurtis Campbell significant strikes over 39.5	39%	1.45	—
Finish before Round 2	17%	3.10	✗ lost
Trevor Peek significant strikes over 49.5	29%	1.80	—
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	5%	10.50	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	33%	1.45	✓ won
Under 2.5 rounds	29%	1.61	—
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	6%	7.75	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 5.5	14%	3.30	—
Total significant strikes over 89.5	27%	1.56	—
Trevor Peek significant strikes over 59.5	19%	2.10	—
Kurtis Campbell significant strikes over 49.5	23%	1.62	—
Total significant strikes over 99.5	22%	1.67	—
Fight ends by Submission in R1	6%	5.80	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 109.5	18%	1.78	—
Fight ends by Submission	11%	2.85	✓ won
Kurtis Campbell significant strikes over 59.5	15%	1.83	—
Fight ends by Submission in R3	2%	11.50	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 119.5	14%	1.90	—
Kurtis Campbell wins by KO/TKO	6%	4.25	✗ lost
Kurtis Campbell wins by KO/TKO in R1	3%	8.25	✗ lost
Trevor Peek significant strikes over 69.5	10%	2.50	—
Kurtis Campbell wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	5%	5.25	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	3%	7.75	✗ lost
Kurtis Campbell wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	3%	7.50	✗ lost
Kurtis Campbell wins by KO/TKO in R3	1%	16.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 129.5	10%	2.05	—
Kurtis Campbell wins by KO/TKO in R2	2%	11.00	✗ lost
Kurtis Campbell wins by KO or Sub	10%	1.82	✓ won
Kurtis Campbell significant strikes over 69.5	7%	2.10	—
Total significant strikes over 139.5	6%	2.20	—
Total knockdowns over 1.5	2%	5.50	—
Kurtis Campbell wins by finish in Round 1	5%	2.25	✗ lost
Kurtis Campbell wins by Submission in R1	2%	6.00	✗ lost
Kurtis Campbell wins by SUB	4%	3.00	✓ won
Kurtis Campbell wins by Submission in R1 or R2	3%	3.70	✗ lost
Kurtis Campbell wins by Submission in R2 or R3	2%	5.40	✓ won
Kurtis Campbell wins by Submission in R3	1%	12.00	✓ won
Kurtis Campbell wins by Submission in R2	1%	8.25	✗ lost
Trevor Peek significant strikes over 79.5	2%	3.00	—
Total significant strikes over 149.5	2%	2.40	—

Muhammad Naimov

13-4-0

Winner

Losene Keita

KO/TKO · R1

✓ predicted

Losene Keita

16-2-0

▼

Model Prediction

Muhammad Naimov 26%

KO 5%· Sub 4%· Dec 17%

Losene Keita ✓ won 74%

KO 31%· Sub 2%· Dec 41%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Losene Keita wins	74%	1.24	✓ predicted
Method Losene Keita wins by Decision value	41%	3.75	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	57%	2.56	missed

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Losene Keita wins by DEC value	41%	3.75	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	57%	2.56	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	57%	2.50	✗ lost
Losene Keita wins by Sub or Decision value	42%	3.40	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	61%	2.20	✗ lost
Losene Keita wins in R3+ or by Decision value	47%	2.80	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 3	64%	1.94	✗ lost
Muhammad Naimov wins by DEC	17%	7.25	✗ lost
Losene Keita takedowns over 2.5	14%	8.00	—
Muhammad Naimov wins by Sub or Decision	21%	5.30	✗ lost
Muhammad Naimov wins by Decision	17%	6.50	✗ lost
Muhammad Naimov wins	26%	4.10	✗ lost
Muhammad Naimov wins by KO or Decision	22%	4.80	✗ lost
Muhammad Naimov significant strikes over 19.5	70%	1.40	—
Total significant strikes over 49.5	72%	1.36	—
Total significant strikes over 59.5	66%	1.48	—
Total significant strikes over 69.5	59%	1.62	—
Losene Keita significant strikes over 29.5	70%	1.36	—
Losene Keita significant strikes over 19.5	81%	1.17	—
Total significant strikes over 79.5	52%	1.78	—
Losene Keita wins	74%	1.24	✓ won
Losene Keita wins by KO or Decision	72%	1.26	✓ won
Muhammad Naimov takedowns over 0.5	62%	1.45	—
Muhammad Naimov significant strikes over 29.5	49%	1.83	—
Total takedowns over 0.5	73%	1.20	—
Losene Keita takedowns over 1.5	22%	4.00	—
Losene Keita significant strikes over 39.5	55%	1.57	—
Muhammad Naimov significant strikes over 39.5	35%	2.40	—
Losene Keita takedowns over 0.5	39%	2.00	—
Total takedowns over 1.5	52%	1.51	—
Muhammad Naimov wins by Submission in R1	2%	31.00	✗ lost
Muhammad Naimov significant strikes over 49.5	23%	3.40	—
Muhammad Naimov wins by Submission in R1 or R2	4%	19.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	3%	21.00	✗ lost
Muhammad Naimov wins by KO or Sub	10%	7.25	✗ lost
Muhammad Naimov takedowns over 1.5	38%	1.83	—
Finish before Round 2	24%	2.86	✓ won
Muhammad Naimov wins by KO/TKO in R1	3%	23.00	✗ lost
Muhammad Naimov wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	4%	15.00	✗ lost
Muhammad Naimov wins by SUB	4%	15.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 1	24%	2.75	✓ won
Losene Keita significant strikes over 49.5	36%	1.83	—
Total takedowns over 2.5	36%	1.84	—
Under 2.5 rounds	39%	1.61	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission	6%	10.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	21%	3.05	✓ won
Fight ends before decision	43%	1.47	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO	37%	1.65	✓ won
Losene Keita wins by KO/TKO in R1	18%	3.40	✓ won
Muhammad Naimov wins by KO/TKO	5%	11.50	✗ lost
Losene Keita wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	27%	2.20	✓ won
Losene Keita wins by KO or Sub	33%	1.77	✓ won
Losene Keita wins by KO/TKO	31%	1.85	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	12%	4.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	11%	5.10	✗ lost
Muhammad Naimov wins by Submission in R2	1%	41.00	✗ lost
Losene Keita wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	14%	3.80	✗ lost
Losene Keita wins by KO/TKO in R2	9%	5.70	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	2%	29.00	✗ lost
Muhammad Naimov significant strikes over 59.5	11%	4.50	—
Total knockdowns over 0.5	38%	1.32	—
Total significant strikes over 89.5	25%	1.99	—
Losene Keita significant strikes over 59.5	22%	2.25	—
Total takedowns over 3.5	22%	2.25	—
Total significant strikes over 109.5	19%	2.55	—
Total significant strikes over 99.5	22%	2.20	—
Total significant strikes over 119.5	16%	3.00	—
Total significant strikes over 129.5	13%	3.60	—
Muhammad Naimov wins by KO/TKO in R2	2%	31.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 139.5	10%	4.30	—
Losene Keita wins by KO/TKO in R3	5%	9.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	6%	7.00	✗ lost
Muhammad Naimov wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	2%	19.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	5%	8.00	✗ lost
Losene Keita significant strikes over 69.5	15%	2.88	—
Muhammad Naimov takedowns over 2.5	18%	2.25	—
Losene Keita wins by Submission in R1 or R2	1%	31.00	✗ lost
Losene Keita wins by SUB	2%	26.00	✗ lost
Losene Keita wins by Submission in R1	1%	46.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 149.5	7%	5.30	—
Fight ends by Submission in R3	1%	41.00	✗ lost
Losene Keita wins by Submission in R2 or R3	1%	51.00	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 4.5	12%	2.90	—
Muhammad Naimov wins by Submission in R3	1%	51.00	✗ lost
Losene Keita significant strikes over 79.5	8%	3.60	—
Total significant strikes over 159.5	4%	6.25	—
Muhammad Naimov wins by KO/TKO in R3	1%	34.00	✗ lost
Total knockdowns over 1.5	2%	5.60	—
Total significant strikes over 169.5	1%	7.75	—
Muhammad Naimov takedowns over 3.5	4%	2.88	—
Total takedowns over 5.5	2%	3.75	—
Losene Keita significant strikes over 89.5	1%	5.00	—

Morgan Charrière

21-12-1

Winner

Felipe Lima

Decision (U) · R3

✓ predicted

Felipe Lima

14-2-0

▼

Model Prediction

Morgan Charrière 23%

KO 11%· Sub 2%· Dec 10%

Felipe Lima ✓ won 77%

KO 24%· Sub 10%· Dec 44%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Felipe Lima wins value	77%	1.45	✓ predicted
Method Felipe Lima wins by Decision	44%	2.30	✓ predicted
Finish round Goes the distance	54%	2.21	✓ predicted

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Felipe Lima wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	14%	12.00	✗ lost
Felipe Lima wins by KO/TKO in R3	7%	26.00	✗ lost
Felipe Lima wins by KO/TKO value	24%	6.75	✗ lost
Felipe Lima wins by KO/TKO in R2	8%	18.00	✗ lost
Felipe Lima wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	17%	8.25	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	10%	12.50	✗ lost
Felipe Lima wins by KO or Decision value	67%	1.79	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO	35%	3.35	✗ lost
Felipe Lima wins by KO or Sub	33%	3.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	13%	8.75	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	12%	9.50	✗ lost
Felipe Lima wins value	77%	1.45	✓ won
Felipe Lima wins by KO/TKO in R1	9%	12.00	✗ lost
Felipe Lima wins by finish in Round 2	11%	9.50	✗ lost
Felipe Lima wins in R3+ or by Decision	51%	2.07	✓ won
Fight ends before decision	46%	2.21	✗ lost
Felipe Lima wins by DEC	44%	2.30	✓ won
Under 2.5 rounds	40%	2.50	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 2	82%	1.17	✓ won
Felipe Lima wins by Sub or Decision	53%	1.77	✓ won
Finish before Round 3	33%	2.82	✗ lost
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	67%	1.40	✓ won
Over 2.5 rounds	60%	1.50	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	13%	6.50	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	54%	1.62	✓ won
Fight goes to Decision	54%	1.61	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 1	18%	4.40	✗ lost
Morgan Charrière wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	7%	10.00	✗ lost
Morgan Charrière wins by KO/TKO	11%	6.00	✗ lost
Morgan Charrière wins by KO or Sub	13%	5.20	✗ lost
Morgan Charrière wins by KO/TKO in R3	3%	21.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	3%	21.00	✗ lost
Morgan Charrière wins in R3+ or by Decision	15%	4.20	✗ lost
Morgan Charrière wins	23%	2.76	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	11%	5.60	✗ lost
Felipe Lima wins by SUB	10%	6.50	✗ lost
Morgan Charrière wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	8%	7.50	✗ lost
Felipe Lima wins by Submission in R3	3%	23.00	✗ lost
Morgan Charrière wins by KO/TKO in R2	4%	16.00	✗ lost
Morgan Charrière wins by KO or Decision	21%	2.85	✗ lost
Felipe Lima wins by Submission in R2	3%	18.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	4%	15.00	✗ lost
Felipe Lima wins by Submission in R1 or R2	7%	8.00	✗ lost
Morgan Charrière wins by Sub or Decision	12%	4.40	✗ lost
Morgan Charrière wins by KO/TKO in R1	4%	11.50	✗ lost
Morgan Charrière wins by DEC	10%	5.00	✗ lost
Morgan Charrière wins by Submission in R2 or R3	1%	46.00	✗ lost
Morgan Charrière wins by SUB	2%	26.00	✗ lost
Felipe Lima wins by Submission in R1	4%	12.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	4%	10.00	✗ lost
Morgan Charrière wins by Submission in R1 or R2	1%	34.00	✗ lost
Morgan Charrière wins by Submission in R1	1%	51.00	✗ lost

Ryan Spann

24-11-0

Winner

Mario Pinto

KO/TKO · R2

✓ predicted

Mario Pinto

12-0-0

▼

Model Prediction

Ryan Spann 4%

KO 1%· Sub 2%· Dec 1%

Mario Pinto ✓ won 96%

KO 48%· Sub 11%· Dec 38%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Mario Pinto wins value	96%	1.27	✓ predicted
Method Mario Pinto wins by KO/TKO	48%	1.85	✓ predicted
Finish round Finish in Round 1	35%	—	missed

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Mario Pinto wins by DEC value	38%	5.70	✗ lost
Mario Pinto wins by Decision value	38%	5.50	✗ lost
Mario Pinto wins by Sub or Decision value	48%	3.60	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	39%	4.25	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	39%	4.10	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 3	47%	2.70	✗ lost
Mario Pinto wins by KO or Decision value	85%	1.43	✓ won
Mario Pinto wins value	96%	1.27	✓ won
Mario Pinto wins by finish in Round 1	33%	2.87	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	57%	1.66	✓ won
Mario Pinto wins by KO or Sub	58%	1.57	✓ won
Mario Pinto wins by SUB	11%	8.50	✗ lost
Mario Pinto wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	41%	2.20	✓ won
Over 2.5 rounds	43%	2.10	✗ lost
Mario Pinto wins by Submission in R1 or R2	9%	9.75	✗ lost
Mario Pinto wins by KO/TKO in R1	27%	3.30	✗ lost
Mario Pinto wins by KO/TKO	48%	1.85	✓ won
Mario Pinto wins by finish in Round 2	17%	5.00	✓ won
Mario Pinto wins by Submission in R1	6%	14.00	✗ lost
Mario Pinto wins by KO/TKO in R2	14%	5.80	✓ won
Mario Pinto wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	21%	3.90	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	28%	2.85	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	49%	1.60	✓ won
Finish before Round 2	35%	2.20	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	61%	1.20	✓ won
Mario Pinto wins by Submission in R2 or R3	5%	16.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	14%	5.10	✓ won
Mario Pinto wins by Submission in R2	3%	23.00	✗ lost
Mario Pinto wins by KO/TKO in R3	7%	9.75	✗ lost
Mario Pinto wins by finish in Round 1	33%	1.86	✗ lost
Mario Pinto wins by Submission in R3	1%	41.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	7%	8.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	12%	4.30	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	7%	7.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	4%	12.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	2%	19.00	✗ lost
Ryan Spann wins in R3+ or by Decision	2%	9.00	✗ lost
Ryan Spann wins	4%	3.85	✗ lost
Ryan Spann wins by Sub or Decision	3%	5.30	✗ lost
Ryan Spann wins by DEC	1%	14.00	✗ lost
Ryan Spann wins by KO or Decision	2%	6.25	✗ lost
Ryan Spann wins by KO or Sub	3%	4.60	✗ lost
Ryan Spann wins by Submission in R1 or R2	1%	8.75	✗ lost
Ryan Spann wins by SUB	2%	7.50	✗ lost
Ryan Spann wins by finish in Round 1	2%	7.50	✗ lost
Ryan Spann wins by Submission in R1	1%	12.50	✗ lost
Ryan Spann wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	1%	11.50	✗ lost
Ryan Spann wins by KO/TKO	1%	9.75	✗ lost
Ryan Spann wins by KO/TKO in R1	1%	16.00	✗ lost
Ryan Spann wins by finish in Round 1	2%	5.50	✗ lost
Ryan Spann wins by finish in Round 2	1%	10.50	✗ lost

Modestas Bukauskas

19-7-0

Winner

Modestas Bukauskas

KO/TKO · R2

✗ wrong

Oumar Sy

12-2-0

▼

Model Prediction

Modestas Bukauskas ✓ won 30%

KO 14%· Sub 4%· Dec 12%

Oumar Sy 70%

KO 27%· Sub 7%· Dec 36%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Oumar Sy wins	70%	1.40	missed
Method Oumar Sy wins by Decision	36%	2.55	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	48%	2.00	missed

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Oumar Sy wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2 value	24%	7.50	✗ lost
Oumar Sy wins by KO/TKO value	27%	6.25	✗ lost
Oumar Sy wins by KO/TKO in R2	10%	16.00	✗ lost
Oumar Sy wins by KO/TKO in R1	13%	12.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	15%	9.75	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO value	41%	3.50	✓ won
Oumar Sy wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	14%	10.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	20%	7.00	✗ lost
Oumar Sy wins by KO or Decision value	63%	1.88	✗ lost
Finish before Round 3	45%	2.54	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	20%	5.75	✓ won
Under 2.5 rounds	49%	2.25	✓ won
Modestas Bukauskas wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	12%	8.75	✓ won
Fight ends before decision	52%	2.00	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 1	26%	4.00	✗ lost
Modestas Bukauskas wins by KO or Sub	18%	5.70	✓ won
Modestas Bukauskas wins by KO/TKO in R2	5%	19.00	✓ won
Modestas Bukauskas wins by KO/TKO	14%	7.00	✓ won
Oumar Sy wins	70%	1.40	✗ lost
Oumar Sy wins by KO or Sub	34%	2.85	✗ lost
Oumar Sy wins by Decision	36%	2.62	✗ lost
Oumar Sy wins by DEC	36%	2.55	✗ lost
Modestas Bukauskas wins by KO/TKO in R1	7%	13.00	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 2	74%	1.20	✓ won
Modestas Bukauskas wins	30%	2.96	✓ won
Modestas Bukauskas wins by Submission in R2	1%	61.00	✗ lost
Modestas Bukauskas wins by Submission in R1 or R2	3%	26.00	✗ lost
Modestas Bukauskas wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	7%	12.00	✓ won
Fight goes to decision	48%	1.75	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	48%	1.74	✗ lost
Modestas Bukauskas wins by KO or Decision	26%	3.15	✓ won
Over 2.5 rounds	51%	1.57	✗ lost
Oumar Sy wins by KO/TKO in R3	3%	23.00	✗ lost
Modestas Bukauskas wins by SUB	4%	21.00	✗ lost
Modestas Bukauskas wins by Submission in R1	2%	41.00	✗ lost
Oumar Sy wins by Sub or Decision	43%	1.73	✗ lost
Modestas Bukauskas wins in R3+ or by Decision	16%	4.40	✗ lost
Modestas Bukauskas wins by Sub or Decision	16%	4.40	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	5%	13.00	✗ lost
Modestas Bukauskas wins by DEC	12%	5.25	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	7%	8.00	✗ lost
Modestas Bukauskas wins by KO/TKO in R3	2%	26.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	4%	11.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	11%	4.10	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	5%	8.00	✗ lost
Oumar Sy wins by Submission in R1 or R2	6%	6.00	✗ lost
Oumar Sy wins by SUB	7%	4.80	✗ lost
Oumar Sy wins by Submission in R1	4%	9.50	✗ lost
Oumar Sy wins by Submission in R2	3%	12.50	✗ lost
Oumar Sy wins by Submission in R2 or R3	4%	8.25	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	1%	16.00	✗ lost
Oumar Sy wins by Submission in R3	1%	18.00	✗ lost

Nathaniel Wood

23-6-0

Winner

Pavel Andrusca

Decision (U) · R3

✗ wrong

Pavel Andrusca

8-0-0

▼

Model Prediction

Nathaniel Wood 75%

KO 27%· Sub 20%· Dec 29%

Pavel Andrusca ✓ won 25%

KO 0%· Sub 5%· Dec 20%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Nathaniel Wood wins	75%	1.32	missed
Method Nathaniel Wood wins by Decision	29%	2.07	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	49%	2.11	✓ predicted

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Nathaniel Wood wins by Submission in R1	12%	19.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	15%	14.00	✗ lost
Nathaniel Wood wins by Submission in R1 or R2 value	16%	12.00	✗ lost
Nathaniel Wood wins by finish in Round 1 value	29%	6.50	✗ lost
Nathaniel Wood wins by SUB value	20%	9.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission value	24%	7.25	✗ lost
Pavel Andrusca wins by DEC	20%	8.00	✓ won
Pavel Andrusca wins by Sub or Decision value	25%	6.25	✓ won
Nathaniel Wood wins by KO/TKO in R1	17%	9.50	✗ lost
Pavel Andrusca wins by Decision	20%	7.50	✓ won
Nathaniel Wood wins by KO or Sub value	46%	3.30	✗ lost
Finish before Round 2	32%	4.60	✗ lost
Pavel Andrusca wins by Submission in R1	3%	46.00	✗ lost
Nathaniel Wood wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	22%	6.00	✗ lost
Nathaniel Wood wins by KO/TKO	27%	4.70	✗ lost
Nathaniel Wood wins by finish in Round 1	29%	4.30	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	47%	2.37	✗ lost
Pavel Andrusca wins by SUB	5%	23.00	✗ lost
Nathaniel Wood wins by Submission in R2 or R3	7%	15.00	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	51%	2.11	✗ lost
Pavel Andrusca wins by Submission in R1 or R2	4%	26.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	5%	19.00	✗ lost
Nathaniel Wood wins by Submission in R2	4%	23.00	✗ lost
Nathaniel Wood wins	75%	1.32	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	17%	5.80	✗ lost
Nathaniel Wood wins by Submission in R3	3%	31.00	✗ lost
Pavel Andrusca wins	25%	3.44	✓ won
Nathaniel Wood wins by finish in Round 2	10%	8.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	4%	23.00	✗ lost
Nathaniel Wood wins by Sub or Decision	48%	1.75	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	49%	1.67	✓ won
Fight goes to Decision	49%	1.66	✓ won
Over 2.5 rounds	53%	1.53	✓ won
Nathaniel Wood wins by KO or Decision	55%	1.47	✗ lost
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	57%	1.41	✓ won
Fight reaches Round 2	68%	1.17	✓ won
Nathaniel Wood wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	10%	7.75	✗ lost
Nathaniel Wood wins in R3+ or by Decision	42%	1.81	✗ lost
Pavel Andrusca wins by KO or Decision	21%	3.70	✓ won
Nathaniel Wood wins by KO/TKO in R2	6%	12.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	27%	2.75	✗ lost
Pavel Andrusca wins by Submission in R3	1%	91.00	✗ lost
Pavel Andrusca wins by Submission in R2	1%	61.00	✗ lost
Nathaniel Wood wins by KO/TKO in R3	4%	15.00	✗ lost
Nathaniel Wood wins by DEC	29%	2.07	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	6%	7.75	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	4%	10.00	✗ lost
Pavel Andrusca wins by finish in Round 1	3%	9.50	✗ lost
Pavel Andrusca wins by KO or Sub	5%	5.10	✗ lost
Pavel Andrusca wins by finish in Round 1	3%	6.25	✗ lost
Pavel Andrusca wins by finish in Round 2	1%	10.00	✗ lost

Michael Aljarouj

13-3-0

Winner

Fabia Sintes

Decision (U) · R3

✗ wrong

Fabia Sintes

0-0-0

▼

Model Prediction

Michael Aljarouj 58%

KO 15%· Sub 12%· Dec 32%

Fabia Sintes ✓ won 42%

KO 7%· Sub 14%· Dec 20%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Michael Aljarouj wins value	58%	15.00	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	52%	—	✓ predicted

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Michael Aljarouj wins value	58%	15.00	✗ lost

Nora Cornolle

9-4-0

Winner

Nora Cornolle

Decision (U) · R3

✗ wrong

Klaudia Syguła

▼

Model Prediction

Nora Cornolle ✓ won 48%

KO 15%· Sub 7%· Dec 26%

Klaudia Syguła 52%

KO 11%· Sub 10%· Dec 31%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Klaudia Syguła wins value	52%	3.10	missed
Method Klaudia Syguła wins by Decision	31%	4.00	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	57%	3.80	✓ predicted

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Klaudia Syguła wins by SUB	10%	34.00	✗ lost
Klaudia Syguła wins by KO/TKO	11%	18.00	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	43%	3.80	✗ lost
Klaudia Syguła wins value	52%	3.10	✗ lost
Nora Cornolle wins by KO/TKO	15%	10.00	✗ lost
Klaudia Syguła wins by DEC	31%	4.00	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	57%	1.22	✓ won
Nora Cornolle wins	48%	1.30	✓ won
Nora Cornolle wins by SUB	7%	6.75	✗ lost
Nora Cornolle wins by DEC	26%	1.74	✓ won

Luis Felipe Dias

18-5-0

Winner

Matthieu Letho Duclos

KO/TKO · R1

Matthieu Letho Duclos

10-3-0

▼

Model Prediction

no prediction data for this bout

Luis Felipe Dias

18-5-0

Winner

Matthieu Duclos

KO/TKO · R1

✗ wrong

Matthieu Duclos

▼

Model Prediction

Luis Felipe Dias 76%

KO 50%· Sub 9%· Dec 17%

Matthieu Duclos ✓ won 24%

KO 3%· Sub 7%· Dec 14%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Luis Felipe Dias wins value	76%	1.97	missed
Method Luis Felipe Dias wins by KO/TKO value	50%	4.10	missed
Finish round Finish in Round 1	37%	—	✓ predicted

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Luis Felipe Dias wins by KO/TKO value	50%	4.10	✗ lost
Luis Felipe Dias wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3 value	24%	8.50	✗ lost
Luis Felipe Dias wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2 value	42%	4.80	✗ lost
Luis Felipe Dias wins by KO or Decision value	67%	2.85	✗ lost
Luis Felipe Dias wins by KO/TKO in R1 value	27%	7.00	✗ lost
Luis Felipe Dias wins by KO/TKO in R3	9%	21.00	✗ lost
Luis Felipe Dias wins in R3+ or by Decision value	33%	5.50	✗ lost
Luis Felipe Dias wins by KO/TKO in R2	15%	12.00	✗ lost
Luis Felipe Dias wins value	76%	1.97	✗ lost
Luis Felipe Dias wins by KO or Sub value	59%	2.40	✗ lost
Luis Felipe Dias wins by DEC	17%	8.00	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	31%	4.20	✗ lost
Luis Felipe Dias wins by finish in Round 1	32%	4.00	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	31%	4.00	✗ lost
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	43%	2.77	✗ lost
Matthieu Duclos wins by Sub or Decision	21%	5.60	✗ lost
Luis Felipe Dias wins by finish in Round 2	17%	6.50	✗ lost
Matthieu Duclos wins by DEC	14%	7.75	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	63%	1.66	✓ won
Fight reaches Round 2	63%	1.65	✗ lost
Matthieu Duclos wins by Decision	14%	7.00	✗ lost
Matthieu Duclos wins by SUB	7%	15.00	✗ lost
Matthieu Duclos wins by Submission in R1 or R2	5%	18.00	✗ lost
Matthieu Duclos wins by Submission in R2 or R3	3%	31.00	✗ lost
Matthieu Duclos wins by Submission in R3	1%	81.00	✗ lost
Matthieu Duclos wins by Submission in R1	3%	26.00	✗ lost
Luis Felipe Dias wins by finish in Round 1	32%	2.80	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	10%	9.25	✗ lost
Matthieu Duclos wins by Submission in R2	2%	46.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	54%	1.63	✓ won
Luis Felipe Dias wins by Sub or Decision	26%	3.35	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	69%	1.20	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	29%	2.90	✓ won
Finish before Round 3	57%	1.41	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	16%	5.10	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	37%	2.10	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	16%	4.10	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	8%	7.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	3%	21.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	4%	12.00	✗ lost
Luis Felipe Dias wins by SUB	9%	5.25	✗ lost
Matthieu Duclos wins	24%	1.87	✓ won
Luis Felipe Dias wins by Submission in R1 or R2	7%	6.00	✗ lost
Luis Felipe Dias wins by Submission in R3	2%	26.00	✗ lost
Luis Felipe Dias wins by Submission in R1	5%	8.50	✗ lost
Luis Felipe Dias wins by Submission in R2	3%	15.00	✗ lost
Matthieu Duclos wins by KO or Decision	17%	2.00	✓ won
Matthieu Duclos wins by KO or Sub	10%	2.25	✓ won
Matthieu Duclos wins by finish in Round 1	5%	2.65	✓ won
Matthieu Duclos wins by KO/TKO	3%	2.55	✓ won
Matthieu Duclos wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	1%	5.40	✗ lost
Matthieu Duclos wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	3%	3.00	✓ won
Matthieu Duclos wins by KO/TKO in R1	2%	4.50	✓ won
Matthieu Duclos wins by KO/TKO in R2	1%	7.75	✗ lost

Sofia Montenegro

6-2-0

Winner

Delphine Benouaich

SUB · R2

✗ wrong

Delphine Benouaich

7-2-0

▼

Model Prediction

Sofia Montenegro 57%

KO 14%· Sub 12%· Dec 31%

Delphine Benouaich ✓ won 43%

KO 7%· Sub 13%· Dec 23%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Sofia Montenegro wins value	57%	2.10	missed
Method Sofia Montenegro wins by Decision	31%	3.20	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	54%	2.60	missed

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Sofia Montenegro wins by SUB	12%	17.00	✗ lost
Sofia Montenegro wins by Submission in R1 or R2	9%	21.00	✗ lost
Sofia Montenegro wins by Submission in R1	6%	31.00	✗ lost
Sofia Montenegro wins by Submission in R2	3%	51.00	✗ lost
Sofia Montenegro wins by Submission in R3	2%	71.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission value	25%	6.50	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission in R1	13%	12.50	✗ lost
Sofia Montenegro wins by KO or Sub	26%	5.20	✗ lost
Finish before Round 2	24%	5.20	✗ lost
Delphine Benouaich wins by Submission in R1	7%	18.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 1	24%	5.10	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	7%	17.00	✓ won
Sofia Montenegro wins value	57%	2.10	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	46%	2.60	✓ won
Sofia Montenegro wins by Sub or Decision	43%	2.80	✗ lost
Delphine Benouaich wins by SUB	13%	9.00	✓ won
Under 2.5 rounds	41%	2.87	✓ won
Delphine Benouaich wins by Submission in R1 or R2	11%	11.00	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission in R3	5%	23.00	✗ lost
Sofia Montenegro wins in R3+ or by Decision	36%	2.85	✗ lost
Sofia Montenegro wins by KO or Decision	45%	2.25	✗ lost
Sofia Montenegro wins by DEC	31%	3.20	✗ lost
Sofia Montenegro wins by KO/TKO	14%	6.75	✗ lost
Delphine Benouaich wins by Submission in R2 or R3	6%	15.00	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	13%	7.25	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	9%	10.00	✗ lost
Sofia Montenegro wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	11%	8.00	✗ lost
Delphine Benouaich wins by Submission in R3	3%	34.00	✗ lost
Delphine Benouaich wins by KO or Sub	20%	4.50	✓ won
Sofia Montenegro wins by KO/TKO in R1	7%	12.00	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 2	76%	1.14	✓ won
Delphine Benouaich wins by Submission in R2	4%	23.00	✓ won
Sofia Montenegro wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	7%	12.00	✗ lost
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	63%	1.30	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	11%	7.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	21%	3.80	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	59%	1.36	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	54%	1.46	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	54%	1.45	✗ lost
Sofia Montenegro wins by KO/TKO in R2	4%	19.00	✗ lost
Delphine Benouaich wins by Sub or Decision	36%	2.10	✓ won
Sofia Montenegro wins by KO/TKO in R3	3%	26.00	✗ lost
Delphine Benouaich wins	43%	1.74	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	4%	15.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	6%	10.50	✗ lost
Delphine Benouaich wins in R3+ or by Decision	27%	2.30	✗ lost
Delphine Benouaich wins by KO or Decision	30%	2.03	✗ lost
Delphine Benouaich wins by DEC	23%	2.60	✗ lost
Delphine Benouaich wins by KO/TKO	7%	7.75	✗ lost
Delphine Benouaich wins by KO/TKO in R1	4%	15.00	✗ lost
Delphine Benouaich wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	5%	9.50	✗ lost
Delphine Benouaich wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	3%	13.00	✗ lost
Delphine Benouaich wins by KO/TKO in R2	2%	19.00	✗ lost
Delphine Benouaich wins by KO/TKO in R3	1%	26.00	✗ lost