Updated 2026-07-27 08:21 AEST
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Bouts
0
Events
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Win probability
Our model's estimate that a fighter wins — e.g. 72% means we'd expect them to win roughly 7 of 10 times.
Confidence interval (CI)
The range the true probability likely falls in. Wider = less certain. A pick'em fight has a wide band; a clear favourite a narrow one.
Edge
How much higher our probability is than the bookmaker's implied odds. Positive edge = we think it's underpriced.
EV (expected value)
Average return if you placed the bet many times. +15% EV means about 15c profit per $1 staked, on average.
Risk tiers
Conservative leans to safe favourites, Balanced blends, Aggressive chases bigger-odds longshots. Pick what suits you.
Edge badges
Strong / Solid / Slight edge rank how much value the model sees — and how big a stake it suggests. They're not a promise the bet wins.

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Dan Hooker
Hooker
Main Event
88%
Model Leans Hooker
2026-09-05
Salahdine Parnasse
Parnasse
UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse
2026
05
SEP
⚡ Next Event

UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse

Accor Arena, Paris, France
4
Bouts
Dan Hooker
Dan Hooker
New Zealand 24-14-0 MMA Switch Stance 2-fight loss streak
88% | 12%
Lightweight 5 rds
⏱ Sun 6 Sep · 5:00 AM AEST
Salahdine Parnasse
Salahdine Parnasse
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Dan Hooker
88.2 %
050100
90% CI · 58 – 98 · σ 0.093 · Medium
Why this pick
  • the case against Salahdine Parnasse comes in on a 2-fight cleaner skid
  • Dan Hooker out-volumes opponents at 4.8 sig/min vs Salahdine Parnasse's 0.0
Method Breakdown
Hooker Parnasse
KO/TKO 39.7
3.6
Submission 26.7
2.5
Decision 21.8
5.7
Finish Distribution · By Round
37
R1
23
R2
9
R3
0
R4
4
R5
27
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Hooker Parnasse
Str/min 4.8
0.0
Sig Acc 49%
0%
Str Def 49%
0%
TD/min 0.05
0.00
Finish 62%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
44
21
HookerParnasse
Combined 71 17–217
Takedowns
0.2
0.0
HookerParnasse
Combined 1.3 0.0–4.8
Fight length
Expected 2.3 of 5 rounds 27% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Loss streak favours Parnasse

    Salahdine Parnasse comes in on a 2-fight cleaner skid

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Michael Page
Michael Page
United Kingdom 25-3-0 Switch Stance 3-fight win streak
53% | 47%
Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 6 Sep · 5:00 AM AEST
Nursulton Ruziboev
Nursulton Ruziboev
Uzbekistan 36-9-2 Kickboxer Orthodox 3-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Michael Page
53.0 %
050100
90% CI · 23 – 83 · σ 0.104 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Michael Page eats 1.1 fewer strikes per minute
  • Michael Page stuffs 35% more incoming takedowns
  • the case against Nursulton Ruziboev finishes 67% more of their wins
  • Nursulton Ruziboev has never been finished in 6 fights
Method Breakdown
Page Ruziboev
KO/TKO 20.4
12.6
Submission 4.2
13.3
Decision 28.4
21.1
Finish Distribution · By Round
27
R1
17
R2
7
R3
50
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Page Ruziboev
Str/min 2.1
2.4
Sig Acc 56%
46%
Str Def 62%
49%
TD/min 0.00
0.09
Finish 0%
67%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
31
13
PageRuziboev
Combined 60 17–116
Takedowns
0.0
0.2
PageRuziboev
Combined 1.5 0.0–4.4
Fight length
Expected 2.0 of 3 rounds 50% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Page

    Michael Page eats 1.1 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Finish rate favours Ruziboev

    Nursulton Ruziboev finishes 67% more of their wins

  • 03 KO rate favours Ruziboev

    Nursulton Ruziboev finishes by KO 50% more often

  • 04 Takedown defence favours Page

    Michael Page stuffs 35% more incoming takedowns

  • 05 Submission rate favours Ruziboev

    Nursulton Ruziboev taps opponents 17% more often

  • 06 Striking volume favours Ruziboev

    Nursulton Ruziboev lands 0.2 more sig strikes per minute

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
TP
Trevor Peek
United States 9-3-0 Switch Stance 2-fight loss streak
45% | 55%
Featherweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 6 Sep · 5:00 AM AEST
Kurtis Campbell
Kurtis Campbell
England 8-1-0 MMA Switch Stance 1 loss
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Kurtis Campbell
54.9 %
050100
90% CI · 25 – 85 · σ 0.058 · High
Why this pick
  • Kurtis Campbell finishes 56% more of their wins
  • Kurtis Campbell finishes by KO 56% more often
  • Kurtis Campbell eats 0.4 fewer strikes per minute
  • the case against Trevor Peek lands 1.7 more sig strikes per minute
  • layoff Peek hasn't fought since Sep 2024 — ring rust is hard to price, so the model widens its uncertainty here
  • Trevor Peek out-volumes opponents at 4.1 sig/min vs Kurtis Campbell's 2.3
Method Breakdown
Peek Campbell
KO/TKO 15.4
11.9
Submission 6.5
5.9
Decision 23.2
37.0
Finish Distribution · By Round
13
R1
8
R2
19
R3
60
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Peek Campbell
Str/min 4.1
2.3
Sig Acc 52%
32%
Str Def 46%
50%
TD/min 0.09
0.28
Finish 20%
76%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
32
30
PeekCampbell
Combined 70 19–131
Takedowns
0.3
1.7
PeekCampbell
Combined 3.0 0.0–5.4
Fight length
Expected 2.5 of 3 rounds 60% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Peek

    Trevor Peek lands 1.7 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Finish rate favours Campbell

    Kurtis Campbell finishes 56% more of their wins

  • 03 KO rate favours Campbell

    Kurtis Campbell finishes by KO 56% more often

  • 04 Strikes absorbed favours Campbell

    Kurtis Campbell eats 0.4 fewer strikes per minute

  • 05 Takedown defence favours Peek

    Trevor Peek stuffs 53% more incoming takedowns

  • 06 Durability favours Peek

    Trevor Peek has been finished 100% less often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Ryan Spann
Ryan Spann
United States 24-11-0 MMA Orthodox 2-fight win streak
4% | 96%
Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 6 Sep · 2:00 AM AEST
Mario Pinto
Mario Pinto
Portugal 12-0-0 MMA Orthodox 3-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Mario Pinto
96.4 %
050100
90% CI · 71 – 98 · σ 0.055 · High
Why this pick
  • Mario Pinto eats 2.0 fewer strikes per minute
  • Mario Pinto rides a 1-fight longer win streak
  • Mario Pinto is 27% more accurate on the feet
  • the case against Ryan Spann lands 0.5 more sig strikes per minute
  • Ryan Spann has a 13-fight UFC experience edge (16 vs 3)
Method Breakdown
Spann Pinto
KO/TKO 0.7
50.1
Submission 1.7
2.1
Decision 1.2
44.1
Finish Distribution · By Round
29
R1
17
R2
8
R3
45
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Spann Pinto
Str/min 3.1
2.5
Sig Acc 39%
67%
Str Def 44%
58%
TD/min 0.08
0.17
Finish 81%
67%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
14
28
SpannPinto
Combined 46 11–115
Takedowns
0.0
1.3
SpannPinto
Combined 0.8 0.0–4.6
Fight length
Expected 2.0 of 3 rounds 45% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Pinto

    Mario Pinto eats 2.0 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Pinto

    Mario Pinto rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 03 Striking accuracy favours Pinto

    Mario Pinto is 27% more accurate on the feet

  • 04 Takedown defence favours Pinto

    Mario Pinto stuffs 42% more incoming takedowns

  • 05 Striking volume favours Spann

    Ryan Spann lands 0.5 more sig strikes per minute

  • 06 KO rate favours Pinto

    Mario Pinto finishes by KO 23% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.