UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse — Results & Recap

Track record

Every pick, graded

What the model said before each fight, what happened, and the locked bets it would have placed. Losses stay on the page.

212 / 318

Correct Picks

66.7% accuracy · 31 events

10 / 20

Parlay Legs

11 parlays · −$714

+$584

Running P&L · locked picks

$1000 / event · Conservative · Kelly-weighted · closing: +$323

75 of 108 confident picks landed — when the model gives a fighter 70%+ it has been right 69% of the time

17–29 betting record with the same amount on every recommended bet (-10.0 units — early days, small sample)

Bankroll curve $1000 per event · Conservative tier · locked picks +$584

2026-06-15 peak $700 · trough $-986 2026-10-24

From 17 Oct 2026 each card's picks are locked 24 hours before its first bout, as the site showed them then. Earlier cards were locked when their first prop market opened, days to weeks before the card.

UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev 2026-10-24 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-10-23 14:02 UTC (24h before) · +$303

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Daniel Santos wins by KO or Decision	Daniel Santos vs Bolaji Oki	2.45	$80	✓ won +$116
Jacob Malkoun wins	Abubakar Vagaev vs Jacob Malkoun	2.32	$80	✗ lost −$80
Ramazan Temirov wins by KO or Decision	Ramazan Temirov vs Lone'er Kavanagh	1.99	$70	✗ lost −$70
Colby Thicknesse wins by Sub or Decision	Colby Thicknesse vs Asaf Chopurov	6.25	$64	✓ won +$337

UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott 2026-10-17 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-10-16 21:24 UTC (24h before) · −$80

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Nate Landwehr wins by KO or Decision	Nate Landwehr vs Mandel Nallo	4.70	$80	✗ lost −$80

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan 2026-10-10 · $1000 Conservative · even split · locked 2026-09-19 15:16 UTC · +$1220

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Brendan Allen wins	Brendan Allen vs Christian Leroy Duncan	2.22	$1000	✓ won +$1220

UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 2026-09-19 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-09-09 12:20 UTC · +$11

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Dooho Choi wins	Patricio Pitbull vs Dooho Choi	1.39	$72	✗ lost −$72
Edmen Shahbazyan wins	Edmen Shahbazyan vs Brunno Ferreira	1.59	$63	✓ won +$37
Joshua Van wins	Alexandre Pantoja vs Joshua Van	1.85	$54	✓ won +$46

Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado 2026-09-12 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-09-09 12:20 UTC · −$95

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Jose Delgado wins	Jean Silva vs Jose Delgado	4.25	—	⋯ pending
Rafa Garcia wins	Rafa Garcia vs Rongzhu	2.53	$74	✗ lost −$74
Marwan Rahiki wins	Tommy McMillen vs Marwan Rahiki	2.37	$21	✗ lost −$21

UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse 2026-09-05 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-09-02 09:47 UTC · −$52

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Mario Pinto wins	Ryan Spann vs Mario Pinto	1.35	$80	✓ won +$28
Dan Hooker wins	Dan Hooker vs Salahdine Parnasse	5.75	$80	✗ lost −$80

UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song 2026-08-29 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-08-25 11:10 UTC · −$4

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Julia Polastri wins	Xiong Jingnan vs Julia Polastri	1.45	—	⋯ pending
Nilson Rojas wins	Bilal Hasan vs Nilson Rojas	5.50	$80	✗ lost −$80
Denise Gomes wins	Yan Xiaonan vs Denise Gomes	2.32	$57	✓ won +$76

UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues 2026-08-22 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-08-19 09:05 UTC · −$111

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Terrance Chatman wins	Anthony Wint vs Terrance Chatman	8.00	$80	✗ lost −$80
Ryan Kuse wins	Marcio Barbosa vs Ryan Kuse	7.00	$31	✗ lost −$31

UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry 2026-08-15 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-07-29 12:37 UTC · −$80

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Gillian Robertson wins	Mackenzie Dern vs Gillian Robertson	2.72	$80	✗ lost −$80

UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld 2026-08-08 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-08-04 11:58 UTC · −$75

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Louie Sutherland wins	Henrique Da Silva Lopes vs Louie Sutherland	1.63	—	⋯ pending
Guilherme Pat wins	Steven Asplund vs Guilherme Pat	3.02	$49	✗ lost −$49
Jessie Rosas wins	Miles Johns vs Jessie Rosas	2.33	—	⋯ pending
Amanda Lemos wins	Amanda Lemos vs Alexia Thainara	3.02	$27	✗ lost −$27

UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez 2026-08-01 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-07-28 16:52 UTC · −$56

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Mateusz Rebecki wins	Kyle Prepolec vs Mateusz Rebecki	1.18	$80	✓ won +$14
Oban Elliott wins	Oban Elliott vs Michael Oliveira	3.57	$80	✗ lost −$80
Bogdan Grad wins	Dennis Buzukja vs Bogdan Grad	1.52	$62	✓ won +$32
Fight goes to Decision	Daniel Rodriguez vs Uros Medic	7.25	$22	✗ lost −$22

UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov 2026-07-25 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-07-21 13:32 UTC · −$102

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Nurullo Aliev wins	Mike Davis vs Nurullo Aliev	1.54	$80	✓ won +$43
Tyrell Fortune wins	Rizvan Kuniev vs Tyrell Fortune	3.34	$80	✗ lost −$80
Damian Rzepecki wins	Magomed Zaynukov vs Damian Rzepecki	3.73	$43	✗ lost −$43
Dustin Jacoby wins	Dustin Jacoby vs Muhammad Said	1.59	$23	✗ lost −$23

UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman 2026-07-18 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-07-14 09:24 UTC · +$38

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Chase Hooper wins	Chase Hooper vs Mitch Ramirez	1.27	$80	✓ won +$22
Christian Leroy Duncan wins	Jared Cannonier vs Christian Leroy Duncan	1.32	$80	✓ won +$26
Dricus Du Plessis wins by SUB	Kamaru Usman vs Dricus Du Plessis	9.25	$55	✗ lost −$55
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani wins	Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs Seokhyeon Ko	2.66	$28	✓ won +$46

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 2026-07-11 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly · locked 2026-06-07 13:59 UTC · −$200

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Elisha Ellison wins	Gable Steveson vs Elisha Ellison	10.00	$138	✗ lost −$138
Benoit Saint Denis wins	Paddy Pimblett vs Benoit Saint Denis	1.53	$62	✗ lost −$62

UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres 2026-06-27 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly · locked 2026-06-24 16:05 UTC · −$216

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Manuel Torres wins	Rafael Fiziev vs Manuel Torres	1.96	$115	✗ lost −$115
Eric Nolan wins by Sub or Decision	Eric Nolan vs Farman Hasanov	5.30	$70	✗ lost −$70
Matheus Camilo wins	Nazim Sadykhov vs Matheus Camilo	2.99	$48	✓ won +$95
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	Julius Walker vs Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev	3.92	$44	✗ lost −$44
Fight reaches Round 2	Julius Walker vs Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev	2.17	$44	✗ lost −$44
Michel Pereira wins	Michel Pereira vs Shara Magomedov	3.82	$37	✗ lost −$37

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi 2 2026-06-20 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly · locked 2026-06-16 17:28 UTC · +$109

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Luana Santos wins	Karol Rosa vs Luana Santos	1.97	$157	✓ won +$152
Kyoji Horiguchi wins by KO/TKO	Kyoji Horiguchi vs Manel Kape	11.50	$43	✗ lost −$43

UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje 2026-06-15 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly · locked 2026-06-07 13:59 UTC · −$26

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Josh Hokit wins by KO or Decision	Derrick Lewis vs Josh Hokit	1.78	$73	✓ won +$57
Ilia Topuria wins by DEC	Justin Gaethje vs Ilia Topuria	13.00	$57	✗ lost −$57
Steve Garcia wins	Steve Garcia vs Diego Lopes	2.48	$52	✗ lost −$52
Bo Nickal wins by KO or Decision	Kyle Daukaus vs Bo Nickal	1.71	$38	✓ won +$27

10 / 20

Legs landed

50.0% of picks

2 / 11

Parlays won

every leg has to land

−$714

Profit

$100 on each

Only 11 parlays settled so far — far too few to judge the profit either way. On 91 past cards, parlays picked this way landed 67% of the time.

UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev 2026-10-24 · −$100

2-leg @ 4.38 Ends in Round 3+ / Decision @ 2.20Ramazan Temirov wins by KO or Decision @ 1.99 ✗ LOST −$100

UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott 2026-10-17 · −$100

2-leg @ 2.80 Melissa Croden wins @ 1.31Ends in Round 3+ / Decision @ 2.14 ✗ LOST −$100

UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 2026-09-19 · −$100

2-leg @ 2.21 Dooho Choi wins @ 1.39Edmen Shahbazyan wins @ 1.59 ✗ LOST −$100

Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado 2026-09-12 · −$100

2-leg @ 3.35 Ends in Round 3+ / Decision @ 2.22Edgar Chairez wins @ 1.51 ✗ LOST −$100

UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse 2026-09-05 · +$107

2-leg @ 2.07 Mario Pinto wins @ 1.35Felipe Lima wins @ 1.53 ✓ WON +$107

UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song 2026-08-29 · −$100

2-leg @ 1.81 Julia Polastri wins @ 1.45Ends in Round 3+ / Decision @ 1.25 ✗ LOST −$100

UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues 2026-08-22 · −$100

2-leg @ 2.31 Fight reaches Round 2 @ 1.30Gauge Young wins @ 1.78 ✗ LOST −$100

UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez 2026-08-01 · +$79

2-leg @ 1.79 Mateusz Rebecki wins @ 1.18Bogdan Grad wins @ 1.52 ✓ WON +$79

UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov 2026-07-25 · −$100

2-leg @ 2.45 Dustin Jacoby wins @ 1.59Nurullo Aliev wins @ 1.54 ✗ LOST −$100

UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman 2026-07-18 · −$100

2-leg @ 2.24 Christian Leroy Duncan wins @ 1.32Alvin Hines wins @ 1.70 ✗ LOST −$100

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 2026-07-11 · −$100

2-leg @ 1.99 Damian Pinas wins @ 1.46Fight reaches Round 2 @ 1.36 ✗ LOST −$100

UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse 6/15 · 40%

2026-09-05

Dan Hooker

24-14-0

Winner

Salahdine Parnasse

KO/TKO · R1

✗ wrong

Salahdine Parnasse

23-2-0

Model Prediction

Dan Hooker 75%

KO 30%· Sub 22%· Dec 23%

Salahdine Parnasse ✓ won 25%

KO 11%· Sub 3%· Dec 11%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Dan Hooker wins	75%	4.90	missed
Method Dan Hooker wins by KO/TKO value	30%	9.50	missed
Finish round Finish in Round 1	31%	—	✓ predicted

Every Sportsbet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	52%	19.00	✗ lost
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	52%	11.00	✗ lost
Dan Hooker wins by finish in Round 1 value	24%	15.00	✗ lost
Dan Hooker wins	75%	4.90	✗ lost
Dan Hooker wins by Submission in R1	10%	34.00	✗ lost
Dan Hooker wins by Sub or Decision value	45%	7.50	✗ lost
Dan Hooker wins by KO/TKO in R1 value	14%	23.00	✗ lost
Dan Hooker wins by KO or Decision value	53%	6.00	✗ lost
Dan Hooker wins by KO or Sub value	52%	6.00	✗ lost
Dan Hooker wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2 value	22%	14.00	✗ lost
Dan Hooker wins by Submission in R1 or R2 value	16%	19.00	✗ lost
Dan Hooker wins by DEC value	23%	13.00	✗ lost
Dan Hooker wins in R4+ or by Decision value	32%	9.00	✗ lost
Dan Hooker wins by SUB value	22%	13.00	✗ lost
Dan Hooker wins by KO/TKO value	30%	9.50	✗ lost
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	52%	5.00	✗ lost
Dan Hooker wins by finish in Round 2 value	14%	18.00	✗ lost
Dan Hooker wins by Submission in R2	6%	41.00	✗ lost
Dan Hooker wins by Submission in R2, R3 or R4	10%	23.00	✗ lost
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	52%	4.50	✗ lost
Dan Hooker wins by KO/TKO in R2	8%	29.00	✗ lost
Dan Hooker wins by KO/TKO in R2, R3 or R4	14%	16.00	✗ lost
Dan Hooker wins by Submission in R4	3%	81.00	✗ lost
Dan Hooker wins by finish in Round 1 value	24%	7.75	✗ lost
Dan Hooker wins by KO/TKO in R4 or R5	6%	34.00	✗ lost
Dan Hooker wins by Submission in R4 or R5	4%	46.00	✗ lost
Dan Hooker wins by KO/TKO in R4	4%	51.00	✗ lost
Dan Hooker significant strikes over 109.5	16%	11.00	—
Dan Hooker significant strikes over 99.5	20%	9.00	—
Fight goes to decision	34%	5.20	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	34%	5.00	✗ lost
Dan Hooker significant strikes over 89.5	23%	7.00	—
Dan Hooker significant strikes over 79.5	28%	5.50	—
Dan Hooker wins by Submission in R3	2%	81.00	✗ lost
Dan Hooker wins by finish in Round 3	4%	34.00	✗ lost
Dan Hooker wins by Submission in R5	1%	101.00	✗ lost
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	52%	2.79	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 5	38%	3.75	✗ lost
Dan Hooker significant strikes over 69.5	34%	4.20	—
Dan Hooker wins by KO/TKO in R5	2%	71.00	✗ lost
Dan Hooker significant strikes over 59.5	40%	3.30	—
Dan Hooker wins by KO/TKO in R3	2%	51.00	✗ lost
Dan Hooker significant strikes over 49.5	46%	2.63	—
Under 2.5 rounds	51%	2.25	✓ won
Dan Hooker significant strikes over 39.5	53%	2.10	—
Dan Hooker significant strikes over 29.5	64%	1.72	—
Dan Hooker takedowns over 1.5	20%	5.50	—
Fight ends by Submission in R1	12%	9.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 139.5	30%	3.40	—
Total significant strikes over 129.5	33%	3.05	—
Total significant strikes over 119.5	37%	2.75	—
Dan Hooker significant strikes over 19.5	74%	1.36	—
Total significant strikes over 149.5	27%	3.70	—
Total significant strikes over 109.5	40%	2.45	—
Finish before Round 2	31%	3.14	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 99.5	43%	2.25	—
Dan Hooker takedowns over 0.5	41%	2.40	—
Total significant strikes over 159.5	23%	4.20	—
Total significant strikes over 89.5	47%	2.03	—
Total significant strikes over 69.5	55%	1.69	—
Total significant strikes over 79.5	50%	1.86	—
Total significant strikes over 59.5	61%	1.52	—
Total significant strikes over 49.5	67%	1.38	—
Fight ends by Submission	25%	3.60	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 0.5	71%	1.26	—
Salahdine Parnasse wins by DEC	11%	7.75	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	19%	4.25	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 169.5	17%	4.70	—
Total takedowns over 1.5	49%	1.65	—
Over 2.5 rounds	49%	1.57	✗ lost
Salahdine Parnasse significant strikes over 19.5	63%	1.20	—
Fight ends before decision	66%	1.14	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission in R2	7%	11.00	✗ lost
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	52%	1.40	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R4	3%	23.00	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 2.5	34%	2.00	—
Salahdine Parnasse significant strikes over 29.5	48%	1.40	—
Salahdine Parnasse significant strikes over 39.5	40%	1.67	—
Fight ends by KO/TKO	41%	1.59	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 179.5	12%	5.40	—
Salahdine Parnasse significant strikes over 49.5	31%	2.00	—
Salahdine Parnasse significant strikes over 69.5	20%	2.88	—
Salahdine Parnasse significant strikes over 59.5	24%	2.40	—
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R4	5%	11.50	✗ lost
Salahdine Parnasse significant strikes over 79.5	16%	3.50	—
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	11%	5.25	✗ lost
Salahdine Parnasse significant strikes over 89.5	12%	4.33	—
Salahdine Parnasse wins in R4+ or by Decision	14%	3.80	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R5	2%	31.00	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 3.5	21%	2.40	—
Salahdine Parnasse takedowns over 0.5	32%	1.45	—
Total knockdowns over 0.5	38%	1.25	—
Salahdine Parnasse wins by Sub or Decision	14%	3.05	✗ lost
Salahdine Parnasse significant strikes over 99.5	8%	5.00	—
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R5	3%	15.00	✗ lost
Salahdine Parnasse takedowns over 1.5	20%	1.91	—
Fight ends by Submission in R3	2%	18.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 189.5	6%	6.00	—
Salahdine Parnasse wins by KO or Decision	22%	1.54	✓ won
Total takedowns over 4.5	11%	3.15	—
Salahdine Parnasse takedowns over 2.5	14%	2.30	—
Salahdine Parnasse wins	25%	1.18	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	3%	8.50	✗ lost
Salahdine Parnasse significant strikes over 109.5	4%	6.00	—
Salahdine Parnasse wins by KO/TKO in R1	5%	4.80	✓ won
Salahdine Parnasse wins by finish in Round 1	7%	3.60	✓ won
Salahdine Parnasse takedowns over 3.5	8%	2.88	—
Salahdine Parnasse wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	8%	2.80	✓ won
Salahdine Parnasse wins by KO/TKO	11%	1.85	✓ won
Salahdine Parnasse wins by KO or Sub	14%	1.34	✓ won
Salahdine Parnasse wins by Submission in R1	2%	11.00	✗ lost
Salahdine Parnasse wins by KO/TKO in R4 or R5	2%	8.50	✗ lost
Salahdine Parnasse wins by KO/TKO in R2	3%	6.00	✗ lost
Salahdine Parnasse wins by KO/TKO in R4	1%	13.00	✗ lost
Salahdine Parnasse wins by Submission in R1 or R2	2%	6.75	✗ lost
Salahdine Parnasse wins by finish in Round 2	4%	4.50	✗ lost
Salahdine Parnasse wins by KO/TKO in R2, R3 or R4	5%	3.20	✗ lost
Salahdine Parnasse wins by SUB	3%	4.60	✗ lost
Salahdine Parnasse wins by Submission in R2, R3 or R4	2%	7.75	✗ lost
Salahdine Parnasse wins by Submission in R4 or R5	1%	19.00	✗ lost
Salahdine Parnasse wins by KO/TKO in R5	1%	17.00	✗ lost
Salahdine Parnasse wins by Submission in R2	1%	13.00	✗ lost
Salahdine Parnasse wins by finish in Round 1	7%	1.65	✓ won
Total knockdowns over 1.5	2%	3.80	—
Salahdine Parnasse wins by finish in Round 3	1%	7.25	✗ lost
Salahdine Parnasse wins by KO/TKO in R3	1%	9.50	✗ lost
Salahdine Parnasse takedowns over 4.5	2%	4.00	—
Salahdine Parnasse significant strikes over 119.5	1%	7.50	—
Total significant strikes over 199.5	1%	6.75	—

Farés Ziam

18-4-0

Winner

Axel Sola

KO/TKO · R1

✗ wrong

Axel Sola

11-1-1

Model Prediction

Farés Ziam 56%

KO 11%· Sub 5%· Dec 40%

Axel Sola ✓ won 44%

KO 13%· Sub 12%· Dec 20%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Farés Ziam wins	56%	1.64	missed
Method Farés Ziam wins by Decision	40%	2.60	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	60%	2.36	missed

Every Sportsbet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Axel Sola wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	11%	11.50	✓ won
Axel Sola wins by KO or Sub	24%	5.10	✓ won
Axel Sola wins by KO/TKO in R2	5%	26.00	✗ lost
Axel Sola wins by KO/TKO	13%	9.25	✓ won
Axel Sola wins by Submission in R1 or R2	10%	11.00	✗ lost
Axel Sola wins by SUB	12%	9.25	✗ lost
Axel Sola wins by KO/TKO in R1	6%	17.00	✓ won
Farés Ziam wins by Decision	40%	2.62	✗ lost
Finish before Round 3	34%	3.03	✓ won
Farés Ziam wins by DEC	40%	2.60	✗ lost
Axel Sola wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	6%	16.00	✗ lost
Axel Sola wins by finish in Round 1	12%	8.50	✓ won
Axel Sola wins	44%	2.27	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	15%	6.75	✗ lost
Axel Sola wins by Submission in R2	4%	23.00	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	37%	2.62	✓ won
Axel Sola wins by Submission in R1	6%	17.00	✗ lost
Farés Ziam wins by Sub or Decision	45%	2.12	✗ lost
Axel Sola wins in R3+ or by Decision	29%	3.25	✗ lost
Farés Ziam wins by KO or Decision	50%	1.88	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	40%	2.36	✓ won
Fight reaches Round 2	80%	1.17	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	60%	1.54	✗ lost
Farés Ziam significant strikes over 19.5	79%	1.17	—
Farés Ziam wins	56%	1.64	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	9%	10.50	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	63%	1.44	✗ lost
Axel Sola wins by KO or Decision	33%	2.75	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO	23%	3.90	✓ won
Total takedowns over 0.5	82%	1.10	—
Total significant strikes over 49.5	71%	1.26	—
Axel Sola significant strikes over 29.5	57%	1.57	—
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	11%	7.75	✓ won
Axel Sola significant strikes over 19.5	72%	1.22	—
Axel Sola wins by Sub or Decision	32%	2.75	✗ lost
Farés Ziam takedowns over 0.5	62%	1.40	—
Farés Ziam significant strikes over 29.5	61%	1.40	—
Fight ends by Submission	17%	5.10	✗ lost
Total knockdowns over 0.5	38%	2.25	—
Total significant strikes over 59.5	61%	1.39	—
Fight ends by Submission in R2	6%	13.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	8%	9.75	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 69.5	50%	1.57	—
Axel Sola significant strikes over 39.5	37%	2.10	—
Axel Sola wins by DEC	20%	3.70	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 1.5	61%	1.23	—
Axel Sola wins by finish in Round 1	12%	6.25	✓ won
Farés Ziam takedowns over 1.5	43%	1.72	—
Axel Sola takedowns over 0.5	46%	1.57	—
Farés Ziam significant strikes over 39.5	42%	1.72	—
Axel Sola significant strikes over 59.5	16%	4.50	—
Farés Ziam wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	9%	7.50	✗ lost
Axel Sola significant strikes over 49.5	22%	3.10	—
Axel Sola significant strikes over 69.5	9%	7.00	—
Farés Ziam wins by KO/TKO	11%	6.00	✗ lost
Farés Ziam wins by KO/TKO in R2	4%	16.00	✗ lost
Farés Ziam wins by KO/TKO in R1	5%	12.00	✗ lost
Farés Ziam wins by KO or Sub	16%	3.90	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 79.5	32%	1.82	—
Axel Sola wins by KO/TKO in R3	2%	34.00	✗ lost
Farés Ziam takedowns over 2.5	29%	2.00	—
Total takedowns over 2.5	40%	1.40	—
Farés Ziam significant strikes over 49.5	24%	2.30	—
Farés Ziam wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	5%	10.00	✗ lost
Axel Sola takedowns over 1.5	28%	1.91	—
Axel Sola wins by Submission in R3	2%	34.00	✗ lost
Farés Ziam wins by Submission in R1 or R2	4%	11.50	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 109.5	16%	3.20	—
Total significant strikes over 99.5	19%	2.60	—
Total significant strikes over 119.5	12%	4.10	—
Farés Ziam significant strikes over 59.5	15%	3.30	—
Total significant strikes over 89.5	23%	2.15	—
Farés Ziam wins by SUB	5%	9.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	5%	9.00	✗ lost
Farés Ziam wins by Submission in R1	3%	19.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 129.5	9%	5.30	—
Farés Ziam wins by Submission in R2	2%	23.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	3%	14.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	2%	19.00	✗ lost
Farés Ziam wins by Submission in R2 or R3	3%	15.00	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 3.5	24%	1.62	—
Farés Ziam wins by finish in Round 1	8%	5.00	✗ lost
Farés Ziam takedowns over 3.5	14%	2.60	—
Axel Sola takedowns over 2.5	13%	2.50	—
Total significant strikes over 139.5	5%	6.75	—
Total takedowns over 4.5	16%	1.95	—
Axel Sola significant strikes over 79.5	3%	10.00	—
Farés Ziam wins by KO/TKO in R3	1%	21.00	✗ lost
Farés Ziam significant strikes over 69.5	6%	4.50	—
Farés Ziam wins by Submission in R3	1%	34.00	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 5.5	7%	2.30	—
Total significant strikes over 149.5	1%	8.75	—

Michael Page

25-3-0

Winner

Michael Page

Decision (U) · R3

✓ predicted

Nursulton Ruziboev

36-9-2

Model Prediction

Michael Page ✓ won 56%

KO 25%· Sub 3%· Dec 27%

Nursulton Ruziboev 44%

KO 13%· Sub 17%· Dec 14%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Michael Page wins	56%	1.46	✓ predicted
Method Michael Page wins by Decision	27%	2.30	✓ predicted
Finish round Goes the distance	41%	2.03	✓ predicted

Every Sportsbet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Michael Page takedowns over 0.5	43%	8.50	—
Total significant strikes over 109.5	14%	10.00	—
Total significant strikes over 99.5	19%	7.25	—
Finish before Round 2	33%	4.00	✗ lost
Nursulton Ruziboev wins by finish in Round 1	17%	7.50	✗ lost
Nursulton Ruziboev wins by KO or Sub	30%	4.25	✗ lost
Nursulton Ruziboev wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	11%	11.50	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 89.5	24%	5.10	—
Nursulton Ruziboev wins by KO/TKO	13%	9.75	✗ lost
Nursulton Ruziboev wins by KO/TKO in R1	7%	17.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	22%	5.70	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	12%	10.50	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	54%	2.25	✗ lost
Nursulton Ruziboev significant strikes over 49.5	12%	10.00	—
Nursulton Ruziboev wins value	44%	2.74	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	21%	5.80	✗ lost
Michael Page wins by Submission in R1 or R2	3%	41.00	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	59%	2.03	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 79.5	32%	3.75	—
Nursulton Ruziboev wins by Submission in R1	10%	12.00	✗ lost
Michael Page wins by Submission in R1	2%	61.00	✗ lost
Nursulton Ruziboev wins by Submission in R1 or R2	15%	7.75	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 0.5	74%	1.54	—
Nursulton Ruziboev significant strikes over 39.5	21%	5.50	—
Nursulton Ruziboev wins by SUB	17%	6.50	✗ lost
Nursulton Ruziboev wins by KO or Decision	27%	4.10	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	38%	2.90	✗ lost
Nursulton Ruziboev wins in R3+ or by Decision	22%	5.00	✗ lost
Nursulton Ruziboev wins by Sub or Decision	32%	3.45	✗ lost
Michael Page wins by KO/TKO in R1	14%	7.50	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 69.5	39%	2.75	—
Michael Page wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	22%	4.80	✗ lost
Michael Page wins by SUB	3%	31.00	✗ lost
Michael Page wins by KO or Sub	29%	3.60	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	17%	5.90	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 1.5	52%	1.93	—
Michael Page wins by Submission in R2	1%	101.00	✗ lost
Michael Page wins by KO/TKO	25%	3.90	✗ lost
Michael Page wins by finish in Round 1	16%	6.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 59.5	46%	2.12	—
Nursulton Ruziboev wins by KO/TKO in R2	4%	26.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 49.5	56%	1.69	—
Nursulton Ruziboev wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	5%	17.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	11%	8.25	✗ lost
Michael Page significant strikes over 19.5	66%	1.36	—
Fight ends by Submission in R2	6%	15.00	✗ lost
Nursulton Ruziboev wins by DEC	14%	6.25	✗ lost
Michael Page wins by Submission in R2 or R3	1%	61.00	✗ lost
Nursulton Ruziboev significant strikes over 29.5	32%	2.80	—
Nursulton Ruziboev wins by finish in Round 1	17%	5.10	✗ lost
Michael Page significant strikes over 29.5	48%	1.80	—
Nursulton Ruziboev wins by Submission in R2	5%	17.00	✗ lost
Michael Page significant strikes over 39.5	32%	2.63	—
Michael Page significant strikes over 49.5	20%	4.20	—
Fight reaches Round 2	67%	1.22	✓ won
Michael Page wins	56%	1.46	✓ won
Michael Page wins by KO/TKO in R2	7%	11.00	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 2.5	33%	2.40	—
Michael Page wins by KO or Decision	52%	1.49	✓ won
Nursulton Ruziboev significant strikes over 19.5	45%	1.72	—
Total knockdowns over 0.5	38%	2.05	—
Michael Page wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	11%	7.00	✗ lost
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	50%	1.48	✓ won
Nursulton Ruziboev wins by KO/TKO in R3	2%	41.00	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	41%	1.73	✓ won
Michael Page wins by finish in Round 1	16%	4.40	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	46%	1.57	✓ won
Fight goes to Decision	41%	1.71	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	8%	8.50	✗ lost
Nursulton Ruziboev takedowns over 0.5	42%	1.62	—
Michael Page wins by Sub or Decision	30%	2.20	✓ won
Michael Page significant strikes over 59.5	9%	7.00	—
Fight ends by Submission in R3	3%	23.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	5%	12.00	✗ lost
Michael Page wins by DEC	27%	2.30	✓ won
Nursulton Ruziboev wins by Submission in R3	2%	26.00	✗ lost
Michael Page wins by Decision	27%	2.25	✓ won
Total takedowns over 3.5	18%	3.20	—
Michael Page wins by KO/TKO in R3	3%	15.00	✗ lost
Nursulton Ruziboev takedowns over 1.5	22%	2.00	—
Nursulton Ruziboev takedowns over 2.5	12%	2.60	—
Total takedowns over 4.5	6%	4.50	—
Nursulton Ruziboev takedowns over 3.5	2%	3.50	—

Punahele Soriano

13-4-0

Winner

Daniil Donchenko

Decision (U) · R3

✓ predicted

Daniil Donchenko

14-2-0

Model Prediction

Punahele Soriano 27%

KO 10%· Sub 3%· Dec 15%

Daniil Donchenko ✓ won 73%

KO 40%· Sub 2%· Dec 31%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Daniil Donchenko wins	73%	1.42	✓ predicted
Method Daniil Donchenko wins by KO/TKO	40%	2.15	missed
Finish round Finish in Round 1	29%	2.95	missed

Every Sportsbet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Daniil Donchenko wins by KO or Sub value	41%	3.75	✗ lost
Daniil Donchenko wins by Decision value	31%	4.50	✓ won
Daniil Donchenko wins by DEC value	31%	4.40	✓ won
Fight goes to decision	46%	2.61	✓ won
Fight goes to Decision	46%	2.55	✓ won
Over 2.5 rounds	51%	2.25	✓ won
Fight reaches Round 3	56%	1.93	✓ won
Daniil Donchenko wins by KO or Decision	71%	1.49	✓ won
Daniil Donchenko wins	73%	1.42	✓ won
Punahele Soriano significant strikes over 19.5	76%	1.25	—
Total takedowns over 0.5	72%	1.29	—
Daniil Donchenko wins by KO/TKO in R1	22%	4.20	✗ lost
Punahele Soriano significant strikes over 29.5	59%	1.53	—
Finish before Round 2	29%	3.04	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	27%	3.30	✗ lost
Daniil Donchenko significant strikes over 19.5	78%	1.14	—
Fight ends by finish in Round 1	29%	2.95	✗ lost
Daniil Donchenko wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	33%	2.60	✗ lost
Daniil Donchenko wins by KO/TKO	40%	2.15	✗ lost
Punahele Soriano wins by DEC	15%	5.80	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 49.5	68%	1.25	—
Punahele Soriano wins by Sub or Decision	17%	4.80	✗ lost
Daniil Donchenko wins by KO or Sub	41%	1.97	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	49%	1.64	✗ lost
Punahele Soriano wins by Decision	15%	5.50	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 59.5	60%	1.35	—
Punahele Soriano significant strikes over 39.5	44%	1.83	—
Under 2.5 rounds	49%	1.61	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	54%	1.46	✗ lost
Punahele Soriano wins	27%	2.90	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 1.5	46%	1.67	—
Punahele Soriano takedowns over 0.5	50%	1.53	—
Punahele Soriano wins by KO or Decision	24%	3.10	✗ lost
Daniil Donchenko significant strikes over 29.5	58%	1.30	—
Total significant strikes over 69.5	52%	1.45	—
Daniil Donchenko wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	18%	4.10	✗ lost
Daniil Donchenko takedowns over 1.5	15%	5.00	—
Punahele Soriano significant strikes over 49.5	31%	2.37	—
Total significant strikes over 79.5	45%	1.57	—
Daniil Donchenko wins by KO/TKO in R2	11%	6.25	✗ lost
Daniil Donchenko takedowns over 0.5	28%	2.50	—
Daniil Donchenko wins by KO/TKO in R3	7%	10.00	✗ lost
Punahele Soriano wins by KO/TKO in R1	5%	12.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	14%	4.75	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 89.5	38%	1.71	—
Total takedowns over 2.5	31%	2.10	—
Punahele Soriano takedowns over 1.5	32%	2.00	—
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	15%	4.25	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	8%	7.50	✗ lost
Daniil Donchenko significant strikes over 39.5	44%	1.45	—
Punahele Soriano significant strikes over 59.5	21%	3.00	—
Punahele Soriano wins by KO or Sub	12%	5.00	✗ lost
Punahele Soriano wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	8%	7.50	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 99.5	32%	1.89	—
Daniil Donchenko significant strikes over 49.5	34%	1.72	—
Punahele Soriano wins by Submission in R1	1%	41.00	✗ lost
Punahele Soriano wins by KO/TKO	10%	6.00	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 3.5	21%	2.70	—
Total significant strikes over 109.5	25%	2.08	—
Daniil Donchenko significant strikes over 59.5	25%	2.00	—
Punahele Soriano wins by Submission in R1 or R2	2%	23.00	✗ lost
Punahele Soriano wins by SUB	3%	19.00	✗ lost
Total knockdowns over 0.5	38%	1.26	—
Punahele Soriano significant strikes over 69.5	13%	3.75	—
Total takedowns over 4.5	13%	3.60	—
Total significant strikes over 119.5	21%	2.30	—
Daniil Donchenko significant strikes over 69.5	19%	2.50	—
Punahele Soriano takedowns over 2.5	18%	2.50	—
Fight ends by Submission in R1	2%	19.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	4%	10.00	✗ lost
Punahele Soriano wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	4%	9.75	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 129.5	16%	2.60	—
Daniil Donchenko significant strikes over 79.5	13%	3.10	—
Punahele Soriano wins by KO/TKO in R2	3%	14.00	✗ lost
Punahele Soriano wins by Submission in R2	1%	51.00	✗ lost
Punahele Soriano wins by KO/TKO in R3	2%	21.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 139.5	11%	2.95	—
Fight ends by Submission in R2	1%	26.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	1%	41.00	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 5.5	6%	4.90	—
Daniil Donchenko wins by SUB	2%	17.00	✗ lost
Daniil Donchenko wins by Submission in R1	1%	31.00	✗ lost
Daniil Donchenko wins by Submission in R1 or R2	1%	19.00	✗ lost
Daniil Donchenko significant strikes over 89.5	7%	3.75	—
Punahele Soriano significant strikes over 79.5	5%	5.00	—
Daniil Donchenko wins by Submission in R2 or R3	1%	31.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 149.5	7%	3.35	—
Punahele Soriano takedowns over 3.5	6%	3.40	—
Total knockdowns over 1.5	2%	4.10	—
Total significant strikes over 159.5	2%	3.90	—

Trevor Peek

9-3-0

Winner

Kurtis Campbell

SUB · R3

✓ predicted

Kurtis Campbell

8-1-0

Model Prediction

Trevor Peek 47%

KO 16%· Sub 8%· Dec 24%

Kurtis Campbell ✓ won 53%

KO 6%· Sub 4%· Dec 43%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Kurtis Campbell wins	53%	1.23	✓ predicted
Method Kurtis Campbell wins by Decision value	43%	3.50	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	67%	2.64	missed

Every Sportsbet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Trevor Peek wins by Submission in R1	4%	81.00	✗ lost
Trevor Peek wins by Submission in R1 or R2	6%	51.00	✗ lost
Trevor Peek wins by SUB	8%	34.00	✗ lost
Trevor Peek wins by Sub or Decision value	31%	8.00	✗ lost
Trevor Peek wins by Submission in R3	2%	151.00	✗ lost
Trevor Peek wins in R3+ or by Decision value	35%	7.00	✗ lost
Trevor Peek wins by DEC value	24%	9.25	✗ lost
Trevor Peek wins by Submission in R2	2%	101.00	✗ lost
Trevor Peek wins value	47%	4.20	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	67%	2.64	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	67%	2.55	✗ lost
Trevor Peek wins by KO or Decision value	39%	4.30	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	71%	2.20	—
Kurtis Campbell wins by DEC value	43%	3.50	✗ lost
Kurtis Campbell wins by Decision value	43%	3.25	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 3	74%	1.90	✓ won
Trevor Peek wins by KO or Sub	23%	6.00	✗ lost
Trevor Peek wins by finish in Round 1	12%	10.00	✗ lost
Trevor Peek wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	12%	8.75	✗ lost
Trevor Peek wins by KO/TKO	16%	6.75	✗ lost
Trevor Peek wins by KO/TKO in R1	8%	13.00	✗ lost
Kurtis Campbell wins by KO or Decision	50%	1.99	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 1.5	69%	1.37	—
Total takedowns over 2.5	56%	1.68	—
Total takedowns over 0.5	83%	1.11	—
Trevor Peek wins by finish in Round 1	12%	7.75	✗ lost
Trevor Peek significant strikes over 19.5	75%	1.17	—
Trevor Peek takedowns over 1.5	20%	4.50	—
Trevor Peek wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	8%	11.50	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 3.5	42%	2.05	—
Kurtis Campbell takedowns over 0.5	67%	1.28	—
Kurtis Campbell takedowns over 1.5	52%	1.62	—
Trevor Peek significant strikes over 29.5	61%	1.36	—
Trevor Peek takedowns over 0.5	43%	1.91	—
Trevor Peek wins by KO/TKO in R2	4%	19.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 49.5	66%	1.22	—
Kurtis Campbell wins by Sub or Decision	47%	1.66	✓ won
Kurtis Campbell takedowns over 2.5	40%	1.91	—
Trevor Peek wins by KO/TKO in R3	3%	23.00	✗ lost
Trevor Peek wins by finish in Round 2	6%	12.00	✗ lost
Kurtis Campbell significant strikes over 19.5	68%	1.12	—
Total significant strikes over 59.5	58%	1.29	—
Total takedowns over 4.5	27%	2.65	—
Trevor Peek significant strikes over 39.5	46%	1.57	—
Kurtis Campbell significant strikes over 29.5	55%	1.28	—
Total significant strikes over 69.5	50%	1.37	—
Kurtis Campbell takedowns over 3.5	28%	2.40	—
Kurtis Campbell wins	53%	1.23	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	11%	5.60	✗ lost
Total knockdowns over 0.5	38%	1.62	—
Fight ends by KO/TKO	22%	2.75	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 79.5	38%	1.46	—
Kurtis Campbell significant strikes over 39.5	39%	1.45	—
Finish before Round 2	17%	3.10	✗ lost
Trevor Peek significant strikes over 49.5	29%	1.80	—
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	5%	10.50	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	33%	1.45	✓ won
Under 2.5 rounds	29%	1.61	—
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	6%	7.75	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 5.5	14%	3.30	—
Total significant strikes over 89.5	27%	1.56	—
Trevor Peek significant strikes over 59.5	19%	2.10	—
Kurtis Campbell significant strikes over 49.5	23%	1.62	—
Total significant strikes over 99.5	22%	1.67	—
Fight ends by Submission in R1	6%	5.80	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 109.5	18%	1.78	—
Fight ends by Submission	11%	2.85	✓ won
Kurtis Campbell significant strikes over 59.5	15%	1.83	—
Fight ends by Submission in R3	2%	11.50	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 119.5	14%	1.90	—
Kurtis Campbell wins by KO/TKO	6%	4.25	✗ lost
Kurtis Campbell wins by KO/TKO in R1	3%	8.25	✗ lost
Trevor Peek significant strikes over 69.5	10%	2.50	—
Kurtis Campbell wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	5%	5.25	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	3%	7.75	✗ lost
Kurtis Campbell wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	3%	7.50	✗ lost
Kurtis Campbell wins by KO/TKO in R3	1%	16.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 129.5	10%	2.05	—
Kurtis Campbell wins by KO/TKO in R2	2%	11.00	✗ lost
Kurtis Campbell wins by KO or Sub	10%	1.82	✓ won
Kurtis Campbell significant strikes over 69.5	7%	2.10	—
Total significant strikes over 139.5	6%	2.20	—
Total knockdowns over 1.5	2%	5.50	—
Kurtis Campbell wins by finish in Round 1	5%	2.25	✗ lost
Kurtis Campbell wins by Submission in R1	2%	6.00	✗ lost
Kurtis Campbell wins by SUB	4%	3.00	✓ won
Kurtis Campbell wins by Submission in R1 or R2	3%	3.70	✗ lost
Kurtis Campbell wins by Submission in R2 or R3	2%	5.40	✓ won
Kurtis Campbell wins by Submission in R3	1%	12.00	✓ won
Kurtis Campbell wins by Submission in R2	1%	8.25	✗ lost
Trevor Peek significant strikes over 79.5	2%	3.00	—
Total significant strikes over 149.5	2%	2.40	—

Muhammad Naimov

13-4-0

Winner

Losene Keita

KO/TKO · R1

✓ predicted

Losene Keita

16-2-0

Model Prediction

Muhammad Naimov 26%

KO 5%· Sub 4%· Dec 17%

Losene Keita ✓ won 74%

KO 31%· Sub 2%· Dec 41%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Losene Keita wins	74%	1.24	✓ predicted
Method Losene Keita wins by Decision value	41%	3.75	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	57%	2.56	missed

Every Sportsbet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Losene Keita wins by DEC value	41%	3.75	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	57%	2.56	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	57%	2.50	✗ lost
Losene Keita wins by Sub or Decision value	42%	3.40	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	61%	2.20	✗ lost
Losene Keita wins in R3+ or by Decision value	47%	2.80	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 3	64%	1.94	✗ lost
Muhammad Naimov wins by DEC	17%	7.25	✗ lost
Losene Keita takedowns over 2.5	14%	8.00	—
Muhammad Naimov wins by Sub or Decision	21%	5.30	✗ lost
Muhammad Naimov wins by Decision	17%	6.50	✗ lost
Muhammad Naimov wins	26%	4.10	✗ lost
Muhammad Naimov wins by KO or Decision	22%	4.80	✗ lost
Muhammad Naimov significant strikes over 19.5	70%	1.40	—
Total significant strikes over 49.5	72%	1.36	—
Total significant strikes over 59.5	66%	1.48	—
Total significant strikes over 69.5	59%	1.62	—
Losene Keita significant strikes over 29.5	70%	1.36	—
Losene Keita significant strikes over 19.5	81%	1.17	—
Total significant strikes over 79.5	52%	1.78	—
Losene Keita wins	74%	1.24	✓ won
Losene Keita wins by KO or Decision	72%	1.26	✓ won
Muhammad Naimov takedowns over 0.5	62%	1.45	—
Muhammad Naimov significant strikes over 29.5	49%	1.83	—
Total takedowns over 0.5	73%	1.20	—
Losene Keita takedowns over 1.5	22%	4.00	—
Losene Keita significant strikes over 39.5	55%	1.57	—
Muhammad Naimov significant strikes over 39.5	35%	2.40	—
Losene Keita takedowns over 0.5	39%	2.00	—
Total takedowns over 1.5	52%	1.51	—
Muhammad Naimov wins by Submission in R1	2%	31.00	✗ lost
Muhammad Naimov significant strikes over 49.5	23%	3.40	—
Muhammad Naimov wins by Submission in R1 or R2	4%	19.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	3%	21.00	✗ lost
Muhammad Naimov wins by KO or Sub	10%	7.25	✗ lost
Muhammad Naimov takedowns over 1.5	38%	1.83	—
Finish before Round 2	24%	2.86	✓ won
Muhammad Naimov wins by KO/TKO in R1	3%	23.00	✗ lost
Muhammad Naimov wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	4%	15.00	✗ lost
Muhammad Naimov wins by SUB	4%	15.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 1	24%	2.75	✓ won
Losene Keita significant strikes over 49.5	36%	1.83	—
Total takedowns over 2.5	36%	1.84	—
Under 2.5 rounds	39%	1.61	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission	6%	10.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	21%	3.05	✓ won
Fight ends before decision	43%	1.47	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO	37%	1.65	✓ won
Losene Keita wins by KO/TKO in R1	18%	3.40	✓ won
Muhammad Naimov wins by KO/TKO	5%	11.50	✗ lost
Losene Keita wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	27%	2.20	✓ won
Losene Keita wins by KO or Sub	33%	1.77	✓ won
Losene Keita wins by KO/TKO	31%	1.85	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	12%	4.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	11%	5.10	✗ lost
Muhammad Naimov wins by Submission in R2	1%	41.00	✗ lost
Losene Keita wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	14%	3.80	✗ lost
Losene Keita wins by KO/TKO in R2	9%	5.70	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	2%	29.00	✗ lost
Muhammad Naimov significant strikes over 59.5	11%	4.50	—
Total knockdowns over 0.5	38%	1.32	—
Total significant strikes over 89.5	25%	1.99	—
Losene Keita significant strikes over 59.5	22%	2.25	—
Total takedowns over 3.5	22%	2.25	—
Total significant strikes over 109.5	19%	2.55	—
Total significant strikes over 99.5	22%	2.20	—
Total significant strikes over 119.5	16%	3.00	—
Total significant strikes over 129.5	13%	3.60	—
Muhammad Naimov wins by KO/TKO in R2	2%	31.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 139.5	10%	4.30	—
Losene Keita wins by KO/TKO in R3	5%	9.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	6%	7.00	✗ lost
Muhammad Naimov wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	2%	19.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	5%	8.00	✗ lost
Losene Keita significant strikes over 69.5	15%	2.88	—
Muhammad Naimov takedowns over 2.5	18%	2.25	—
Losene Keita wins by Submission in R1 or R2	1%	31.00	✗ lost
Losene Keita wins by SUB	2%	26.00	✗ lost
Losene Keita wins by Submission in R1	1%	46.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 149.5	7%	5.30	—
Fight ends by Submission in R3	1%	41.00	✗ lost
Losene Keita wins by Submission in R2 or R3	1%	51.00	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 4.5	12%	2.90	—
Muhammad Naimov wins by Submission in R3	1%	51.00	✗ lost
Losene Keita significant strikes over 79.5	8%	3.60	—
Total significant strikes over 159.5	4%	6.25	—
Muhammad Naimov wins by KO/TKO in R3	1%	34.00	✗ lost
Total knockdowns over 1.5	2%	5.60	—
Total significant strikes over 169.5	1%	7.75	—
Muhammad Naimov takedowns over 3.5	4%	2.88	—
Total takedowns over 5.5	2%	3.75	—
Losene Keita significant strikes over 89.5	1%	5.00	—

Morgan Charrière

21-12-1

Winner

Felipe Lima

Decision (U) · R3

✓ predicted

Felipe Lima

14-2-0

Model Prediction

Morgan Charrière 23%

KO 11%· Sub 2%· Dec 10%

Felipe Lima ✓ won 77%

KO 24%· Sub 10%· Dec 44%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Felipe Lima wins value	77%	1.45	✓ predicted
Method Felipe Lima wins by Decision	44%	2.30	✓ predicted
Finish round Goes the distance	54%	2.21	✓ predicted

Every Sportsbet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Felipe Lima wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	14%	12.00	✗ lost
Felipe Lima wins by KO/TKO in R3	7%	26.00	✗ lost
Felipe Lima wins by KO/TKO value	24%	6.75	✗ lost
Felipe Lima wins by KO/TKO in R2	8%	18.00	✗ lost
Felipe Lima wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	17%	8.25	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	10%	12.50	✗ lost
Felipe Lima wins by KO or Decision value	67%	1.79	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO	35%	3.35	✗ lost
Felipe Lima wins by KO or Sub	33%	3.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	13%	8.75	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	12%	9.50	✗ lost
Felipe Lima wins value	77%	1.45	✓ won
Felipe Lima wins by KO/TKO in R1	9%	12.00	✗ lost
Felipe Lima wins by finish in Round 2	11%	9.50	✗ lost
Felipe Lima wins in R3+ or by Decision	51%	2.07	✓ won
Fight ends before decision	46%	2.21	✗ lost
Felipe Lima wins by DEC	44%	2.30	✓ won
Under 2.5 rounds	40%	2.50	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 2	82%	1.17	✓ won
Felipe Lima wins by Sub or Decision	53%	1.77	✓ won
Finish before Round 3	33%	2.82	✗ lost
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	67%	1.40	✓ won
Over 2.5 rounds	60%	1.50	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	13%	6.50	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	54%	1.62	✓ won
Fight goes to Decision	54%	1.61	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 1	18%	4.40	✗ lost
Morgan Charrière wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	7%	10.00	✗ lost
Morgan Charrière wins by KO/TKO	11%	6.00	✗ lost
Morgan Charrière wins by KO or Sub	13%	5.20	✗ lost
Morgan Charrière wins by KO/TKO in R3	3%	21.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	3%	21.00	✗ lost
Morgan Charrière wins in R3+ or by Decision	15%	4.20	✗ lost
Morgan Charrière wins	23%	2.76	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	11%	5.60	✗ lost
Felipe Lima wins by SUB	10%	6.50	✗ lost
Morgan Charrière wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	8%	7.50	✗ lost
Felipe Lima wins by Submission in R3	3%	23.00	✗ lost
Morgan Charrière wins by KO/TKO in R2	4%	16.00	✗ lost
Morgan Charrière wins by KO or Decision	21%	2.85	✗ lost
Felipe Lima wins by Submission in R2	3%	18.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	4%	15.00	✗ lost
Felipe Lima wins by Submission in R1 or R2	7%	8.00	✗ lost
Morgan Charrière wins by Sub or Decision	12%	4.40	✗ lost
Morgan Charrière wins by KO/TKO in R1	4%	11.50	✗ lost
Morgan Charrière wins by DEC	10%	5.00	✗ lost
Morgan Charrière wins by Submission in R2 or R3	1%	46.00	✗ lost
Morgan Charrière wins by SUB	2%	26.00	✗ lost
Felipe Lima wins by Submission in R1	4%	12.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	4%	10.00	✗ lost
Morgan Charrière wins by Submission in R1 or R2	1%	34.00	✗ lost
Morgan Charrière wins by Submission in R1	1%	51.00	✗ lost

Ryan Spann

24-11-0

Winner

Mario Pinto

KO/TKO · R2

✓ predicted

Mario Pinto

12-0-0

Model Prediction

Ryan Spann 4%

KO 1%· Sub 2%· Dec 1%

Mario Pinto ✓ won 96%

KO 48%· Sub 11%· Dec 38%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Mario Pinto wins value	96%	1.27	✓ predicted
Method Mario Pinto wins by KO/TKO	48%	1.85	✓ predicted
Finish round Finish in Round 1	35%	—	missed

Every Sportsbet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Mario Pinto wins by DEC value	38%	5.70	✗ lost
Mario Pinto wins by Decision value	38%	5.50	✗ lost
Mario Pinto wins by Sub or Decision value	48%	3.60	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	39%	4.25	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	39%	4.10	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 3	47%	2.70	✗ lost
Mario Pinto wins by KO or Decision value	85%	1.43	✓ won
Mario Pinto wins value	96%	1.27	✓ won
Mario Pinto wins by finish in Round 1	33%	2.87	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	57%	1.66	✓ won
Mario Pinto wins by KO or Sub	58%	1.57	✓ won
Mario Pinto wins by SUB	11%	8.50	✗ lost
Mario Pinto wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	41%	2.20	✓ won
Over 2.5 rounds	43%	2.10	✗ lost
Mario Pinto wins by Submission in R1 or R2	9%	9.75	✗ lost
Mario Pinto wins by KO/TKO in R1	27%	3.30	✗ lost
Mario Pinto wins by KO/TKO	48%	1.85	✓ won
Mario Pinto wins by finish in Round 2	17%	5.00	✓ won
Mario Pinto wins by Submission in R1	6%	14.00	✗ lost
Mario Pinto wins by KO/TKO in R2	14%	5.80	✓ won
Mario Pinto wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	21%	3.90	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	28%	2.85	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	49%	1.60	✓ won
Finish before Round 2	35%	2.20	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	61%	1.20	✓ won
Mario Pinto wins by Submission in R2 or R3	5%	16.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	14%	5.10	✓ won
Mario Pinto wins by Submission in R2	3%	23.00	✗ lost
Mario Pinto wins by KO/TKO in R3	7%	9.75	✗ lost
Mario Pinto wins by finish in Round 1	33%	1.86	✗ lost
Mario Pinto wins by Submission in R3	1%	41.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	7%	8.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	12%	4.30	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	7%	7.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	4%	12.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	2%	19.00	✗ lost
Ryan Spann wins in R3+ or by Decision	2%	9.00	✗ lost
Ryan Spann wins	4%	3.85	✗ lost
Ryan Spann wins by Sub or Decision	3%	5.30	✗ lost
Ryan Spann wins by DEC	1%	14.00	✗ lost
Ryan Spann wins by KO or Decision	2%	6.25	✗ lost
Ryan Spann wins by KO or Sub	3%	4.60	✗ lost
Ryan Spann wins by Submission in R1 or R2	1%	8.75	✗ lost
Ryan Spann wins by SUB	2%	7.50	✗ lost
Ryan Spann wins by finish in Round 1	2%	7.50	✗ lost
Ryan Spann wins by Submission in R1	1%	12.50	✗ lost
Ryan Spann wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	1%	11.50	✗ lost
Ryan Spann wins by KO/TKO	1%	9.75	✗ lost
Ryan Spann wins by KO/TKO in R1	1%	16.00	✗ lost
Ryan Spann wins by finish in Round 1	2%	5.50	✗ lost
Ryan Spann wins by finish in Round 2	1%	10.50	✗ lost

Modestas Bukauskas

19-7-0

Winner

Modestas Bukauskas

KO/TKO · R2

✗ wrong

Oumar Sy

12-2-0

Model Prediction

Modestas Bukauskas ✓ won 30%

KO 14%· Sub 4%· Dec 12%

Oumar Sy 70%

KO 27%· Sub 7%· Dec 36%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Oumar Sy wins	70%	1.40	missed
Method Oumar Sy wins by Decision	36%	2.55	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	48%	2.00	missed

Every Sportsbet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Oumar Sy wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2 value	24%	7.50	✗ lost
Oumar Sy wins by KO/TKO value	27%	6.25	✗ lost
Oumar Sy wins by KO/TKO in R2	10%	16.00	✗ lost
Oumar Sy wins by KO/TKO in R1	13%	12.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	15%	9.75	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO value	41%	3.50	✓ won
Oumar Sy wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	14%	10.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	20%	7.00	✗ lost
Oumar Sy wins by KO or Decision value	63%	1.88	✗ lost
Finish before Round 3	45%	2.54	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	20%	5.75	✓ won
Under 2.5 rounds	49%	2.25	✓ won
Modestas Bukauskas wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	12%	8.75	✓ won
Fight ends before decision	52%	2.00	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 1	26%	4.00	✗ lost
Modestas Bukauskas wins by KO or Sub	18%	5.70	✓ won
Modestas Bukauskas wins by KO/TKO in R2	5%	19.00	✓ won
Modestas Bukauskas wins by KO/TKO	14%	7.00	✓ won
Oumar Sy wins	70%	1.40	✗ lost
Oumar Sy wins by KO or Sub	34%	2.85	✗ lost
Oumar Sy wins by Decision	36%	2.62	✗ lost
Oumar Sy wins by DEC	36%	2.55	✗ lost
Modestas Bukauskas wins by KO/TKO in R1	7%	13.00	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 2	74%	1.20	✓ won
Modestas Bukauskas wins	30%	2.96	✓ won
Modestas Bukauskas wins by Submission in R2	1%	61.00	✗ lost
Modestas Bukauskas wins by Submission in R1 or R2	3%	26.00	✗ lost
Modestas Bukauskas wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	7%	12.00	✓ won
Fight goes to decision	48%	1.75	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	48%	1.74	✗ lost
Modestas Bukauskas wins by KO or Decision	26%	3.15	✓ won
Over 2.5 rounds	51%	1.57	✗ lost
Oumar Sy wins by KO/TKO in R3	3%	23.00	✗ lost
Modestas Bukauskas wins by SUB	4%	21.00	✗ lost
Modestas Bukauskas wins by Submission in R1	2%	41.00	✗ lost
Oumar Sy wins by Sub or Decision	43%	1.73	✗ lost
Modestas Bukauskas wins in R3+ or by Decision	16%	4.40	✗ lost
Modestas Bukauskas wins by Sub or Decision	16%	4.40	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	5%	13.00	✗ lost
Modestas Bukauskas wins by DEC	12%	5.25	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	7%	8.00	✗ lost
Modestas Bukauskas wins by KO/TKO in R3	2%	26.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	4%	11.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	11%	4.10	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	5%	8.00	✗ lost
Oumar Sy wins by Submission in R1 or R2	6%	6.00	✗ lost
Oumar Sy wins by SUB	7%	4.80	✗ lost
Oumar Sy wins by Submission in R1	4%	9.50	✗ lost
Oumar Sy wins by Submission in R2	3%	12.50	✗ lost
Oumar Sy wins by Submission in R2 or R3	4%	8.25	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	1%	16.00	✗ lost
Oumar Sy wins by Submission in R3	1%	18.00	✗ lost

Nathaniel Wood

23-6-0

Winner

Pavel Andrusca

Decision (U) · R3

✗ wrong

Pavel Andrusca

8-0-0

Model Prediction

Nathaniel Wood 75%

KO 27%· Sub 20%· Dec 29%

Pavel Andrusca ✓ won 25%

KO 0%· Sub 5%· Dec 20%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Nathaniel Wood wins	75%	1.32	missed
Method Nathaniel Wood wins by Decision	29%	2.07	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	49%	2.11	✓ predicted

Every Sportsbet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Nathaniel Wood wins by Submission in R1	12%	19.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	15%	14.00	✗ lost
Nathaniel Wood wins by Submission in R1 or R2 value	16%	12.00	✗ lost
Nathaniel Wood wins by finish in Round 1 value	29%	6.50	✗ lost
Nathaniel Wood wins by SUB value	20%	9.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission value	24%	7.25	✗ lost
Pavel Andrusca wins by DEC	20%	8.00	✓ won
Pavel Andrusca wins by Sub or Decision value	25%	6.25	✓ won
Nathaniel Wood wins by KO/TKO in R1	17%	9.50	✗ lost
Pavel Andrusca wins by Decision	20%	7.50	✓ won
Nathaniel Wood wins by KO or Sub value	46%	3.30	✗ lost
Finish before Round 2	32%	4.60	✗ lost
Pavel Andrusca wins by Submission in R1	3%	46.00	✗ lost
Nathaniel Wood wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	22%	6.00	✗ lost
Nathaniel Wood wins by KO/TKO	27%	4.70	✗ lost
Nathaniel Wood wins by finish in Round 1	29%	4.30	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	47%	2.37	✗ lost
Pavel Andrusca wins by SUB	5%	23.00	✗ lost
Nathaniel Wood wins by Submission in R2 or R3	7%	15.00	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	51%	2.11	✗ lost
Pavel Andrusca wins by Submission in R1 or R2	4%	26.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	5%	19.00	✗ lost
Nathaniel Wood wins by Submission in R2	4%	23.00	✗ lost
Nathaniel Wood wins	75%	1.32	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	17%	5.80	✗ lost
Nathaniel Wood wins by Submission in R3	3%	31.00	✗ lost
Pavel Andrusca wins	25%	3.44	✓ won
Nathaniel Wood wins by finish in Round 2	10%	8.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	4%	23.00	✗ lost
Nathaniel Wood wins by Sub or Decision	48%	1.75	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	49%	1.67	✓ won
Fight goes to Decision	49%	1.66	✓ won
Over 2.5 rounds	53%	1.53	✓ won
Nathaniel Wood wins by KO or Decision	55%	1.47	✗ lost
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	57%	1.41	✓ won
Fight reaches Round 2	68%	1.17	✓ won
Nathaniel Wood wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	10%	7.75	✗ lost
Nathaniel Wood wins in R3+ or by Decision	42%	1.81	✗ lost
Pavel Andrusca wins by KO or Decision	21%	3.70	✓ won
Nathaniel Wood wins by KO/TKO in R2	6%	12.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	27%	2.75	✗ lost
Pavel Andrusca wins by Submission in R3	1%	91.00	✗ lost
Pavel Andrusca wins by Submission in R2	1%	61.00	✗ lost
Nathaniel Wood wins by KO/TKO in R3	4%	15.00	✗ lost
Nathaniel Wood wins by DEC	29%	2.07	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	6%	7.75	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	4%	10.00	✗ lost
Pavel Andrusca wins by finish in Round 1	3%	9.50	✗ lost
Pavel Andrusca wins by KO or Sub	5%	5.10	✗ lost
Pavel Andrusca wins by finish in Round 1	3%	6.25	✗ lost
Pavel Andrusca wins by finish in Round 2	1%	10.00	✗ lost

Michael Aljarouj

13-3-0

Winner

Fabia Sintes

Decision (U) · R3

✗ wrong

Fabia Sintes

0-0-0

Model Prediction

Michael Aljarouj 58%

KO 15%· Sub 12%· Dec 32%

Fabia Sintes ✓ won 42%

KO 7%· Sub 14%· Dec 20%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Michael Aljarouj wins	58%	15.00	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	52%	—	✓ predicted

Every Sportsbet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Michael Aljarouj wins	58%	15.00	✗ lost

Nora Cornolle

9-4-0

Winner

Nora Cornolle

Decision (U) · R3

✗ wrong

Klaudia Syguła

Model Prediction

Nora Cornolle ✓ won 48%

KO 15%· Sub 7%· Dec 26%

Klaudia Syguła 52%

KO 11%· Sub 10%· Dec 31%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Klaudia Syguła wins value	52%	3.10	missed
Method Klaudia Syguła wins by Decision	31%	4.00	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	57%	3.80	✓ predicted

Every Sportsbet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Klaudia Syguła wins by SUB	10%	34.00	✗ lost
Klaudia Syguła wins by KO/TKO	11%	18.00	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	43%	3.80	✗ lost
Klaudia Syguła wins value	52%	3.10	✗ lost
Nora Cornolle wins by KO/TKO	15%	10.00	✗ lost
Klaudia Syguła wins by DEC	31%	4.00	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	57%	1.22	✓ won
Nora Cornolle wins	48%	1.30	✓ won
Nora Cornolle wins by SUB	7%	6.75	✗ lost
Nora Cornolle wins by DEC	26%	1.74	✓ won

Luis Felipe Dias

18-5-0

Winner

Matthieu Duclos

KO/TKO · R1

✗ wrong

Matthieu Duclos

Model Prediction

Luis Felipe Dias 76%

KO 50%· Sub 9%· Dec 17%

Matthieu Duclos ✓ won 24%

KO 3%· Sub 7%· Dec 14%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Luis Felipe Dias wins	76%	1.97	missed
Method Luis Felipe Dias wins by KO/TKO value	50%	4.10	missed
Finish round Finish in Round 1	37%	—	✓ predicted

Every Sportsbet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Luis Felipe Dias wins by KO/TKO value	50%	4.10	✗ lost
Luis Felipe Dias wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3 value	24%	8.50	✗ lost
Luis Felipe Dias wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2 value	42%	4.80	✗ lost
Luis Felipe Dias wins by KO or Decision value	67%	2.85	✗ lost
Luis Felipe Dias wins by KO/TKO in R1 value	27%	7.00	✗ lost
Luis Felipe Dias wins by KO/TKO in R3	9%	21.00	✗ lost
Luis Felipe Dias wins in R3+ or by Decision value	33%	5.50	✗ lost
Luis Felipe Dias wins by KO/TKO in R2	15%	12.00	✗ lost
Luis Felipe Dias wins	76%	1.97	✗ lost
Luis Felipe Dias wins by KO or Sub value	59%	2.40	✗ lost
Luis Felipe Dias wins by DEC	17%	8.00	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	31%	4.20	✗ lost
Luis Felipe Dias wins by finish in Round 1	32%	4.00	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	31%	4.00	✗ lost
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	43%	2.77	✗ lost
Matthieu Duclos wins by Sub or Decision	21%	5.60	✗ lost
Luis Felipe Dias wins by finish in Round 2	17%	6.50	✗ lost
Matthieu Duclos wins by DEC	14%	7.75	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	63%	1.66	✓ won
Fight reaches Round 2	63%	1.65	✗ lost
Matthieu Duclos wins by Decision	14%	7.00	✗ lost
Matthieu Duclos wins by SUB	7%	15.00	✗ lost
Matthieu Duclos wins by Submission in R1 or R2	5%	18.00	✗ lost
Matthieu Duclos wins by Submission in R2 or R3	3%	31.00	✗ lost
Matthieu Duclos wins by Submission in R3	1%	81.00	✗ lost
Matthieu Duclos wins by Submission in R1	3%	26.00	✗ lost
Luis Felipe Dias wins by finish in Round 1	32%	2.80	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	10%	9.25	✗ lost
Matthieu Duclos wins by Submission in R2	2%	46.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	54%	1.63	✓ won
Luis Felipe Dias wins by Sub or Decision	26%	3.35	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	69%	1.20	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	29%	2.90	✓ won
Finish before Round 3	57%	1.41	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	16%	5.10	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	37%	2.10	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	16%	4.10	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	8%	7.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	3%	21.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	4%	12.00	✗ lost
Luis Felipe Dias wins by SUB	9%	5.25	✗ lost
Matthieu Duclos wins	24%	1.87	✓ won
Luis Felipe Dias wins by Submission in R1 or R2	7%	6.00	✗ lost
Luis Felipe Dias wins by Submission in R3	2%	26.00	✗ lost
Luis Felipe Dias wins by Submission in R1	5%	8.50	✗ lost
Luis Felipe Dias wins by Submission in R2	3%	15.00	✗ lost
Matthieu Duclos wins by KO or Decision	17%	2.00	✓ won
Matthieu Duclos wins by KO or Sub	10%	2.25	✓ won
Matthieu Duclos wins by finish in Round 1	5%	2.65	✓ won
Matthieu Duclos wins by KO/TKO	3%	2.55	✓ won
Matthieu Duclos wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	1%	5.40	✗ lost
Matthieu Duclos wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	3%	3.00	✓ won
Matthieu Duclos wins by KO/TKO in R1	2%	4.50	✓ won
Matthieu Duclos wins by KO/TKO in R2	1%	7.75	✗ lost

Luis Felipe Dias

18-5-0

Winner

Matthieu Letho Duclos

KO/TKO · R1

✗ wrong

Matthieu Letho Duclos

10-3-0

Model Prediction

Luis Felipe Dias 64%

KO 42%· Sub 7%· Dec 14%

Matthieu Letho Duclos ✓ won 36%

KO 5%· Sub 10%· Dec 22%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Luis Felipe Dias wins value	64%	1.97	missed
Method Luis Felipe Dias wins by KO/TKO value	42%	4.10	missed
Finish round Finish in Round 1	34%	—	✓ predicted

Every Sportsbet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Matthieu Letho Duclos wins by Sub or Decision value	32%	5.60	✗ lost
Luis Felipe Dias wins by KO/TKO value	42%	4.10	✗ lost
Matthieu Letho Duclos wins by DEC value	22%	7.75	✗ lost
Luis Felipe Dias wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	20%	8.50	✗ lost
Luis Felipe Dias wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2 value	35%	4.80	✗ lost
Luis Felipe Dias wins in R3+ or by Decision value	30%	5.50	✗ lost
Luis Felipe Dias wins by KO or Decision value	56%	2.85	✗ lost
Luis Felipe Dias wins by KO/TKO in R1 value	22%	7.00	✗ lost
Luis Felipe Dias wins by KO/TKO in R3	7%	21.00	✗ lost
Matthieu Letho Duclos wins by Decision	22%	7.00	✗ lost
Matthieu Letho Duclos wins by SUB	10%	15.00	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	36%	4.20	✗ lost
Matthieu Letho Duclos wins by Submission in R1 or R2	8%	18.00	✗ lost
Luis Felipe Dias wins by KO/TKO in R2	12%	12.00	✗ lost
Matthieu Letho Duclos wins by Submission in R2 or R3	5%	31.00	✗ lost
Matthieu Letho Duclos wins by Submission in R3	2%	81.00	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	36%	4.00	✗ lost
Matthieu Letho Duclos wins by Submission in R1	5%	26.00	✗ lost
Matthieu Letho Duclos wins by Submission in R2	3%	46.00	✗ lost
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	47%	2.77	✗ lost
Luis Felipe Dias wins value	64%	1.97	✗ lost
Luis Felipe Dias wins by KO or Sub	50%	2.40	✗ lost
Luis Felipe Dias wins by DEC	14%	8.00	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 2	66%	1.65	✗ lost
Luis Felipe Dias wins by finish in Round 1	26%	4.00	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	59%	1.66	✓ won
Luis Felipe Dias wins by finish in Round 2	14%	6.50	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	41%	2.10	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	64%	1.20	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	8%	9.25	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	47%	1.63	✓ won
Finish before Round 3	53%	1.41	✓ won
Luis Felipe Dias wins by finish in Round 1	26%	2.80	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	25%	2.90	✓ won
Luis Felipe Dias wins by Sub or Decision	21%	3.35	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	17%	4.10	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	14%	5.10	✗ lost
Matthieu Letho Duclos wins	36%	1.87	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission in R1	9%	7.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	3%	21.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	5%	12.00	✗ lost
Matthieu Letho Duclos wins by KO or Decision	26%	2.00	✓ won
Luis Felipe Dias wins by SUB	7%	5.25	✗ lost
Luis Felipe Dias wins by Submission in R1 or R2	6%	6.00	✗ lost
Luis Felipe Dias wins by Submission in R3	1%	26.00	✗ lost
Luis Felipe Dias wins by Submission in R1	4%	8.50	✗ lost
Matthieu Letho Duclos wins by KO or Sub	15%	2.25	✓ won
Luis Felipe Dias wins by Submission in R2	2%	15.00	✗ lost
Matthieu Letho Duclos wins by finish in Round 1	8%	2.65	✓ won
Matthieu Letho Duclos wins by KO/TKO	5%	2.55	✓ won
Matthieu Letho Duclos wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	2%	5.40	✗ lost
Matthieu Letho Duclos wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	4%	3.00	✓ won
Matthieu Letho Duclos wins by KO/TKO in R1	3%	4.50	✓ won
Matthieu Letho Duclos wins by KO/TKO in R3	1%	13.00	✗ lost
Matthieu Letho Duclos wins by KO/TKO in R2	1%	7.75	✗ lost

Sofia Montenegro

6-2-0

Winner

Delphine Benouaich

SUB · R2

✗ wrong

Delphine Benouaich

7-2-0

Model Prediction

Sofia Montenegro 57%

KO 14%· Sub 12%· Dec 31%

Delphine Benouaich ✓ won 43%

KO 7%· Sub 13%· Dec 23%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Sofia Montenegro wins	57%	2.10	missed
Method Sofia Montenegro wins by Decision	31%	3.20	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	54%	2.60	missed

Every Sportsbet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Sofia Montenegro wins by SUB	12%	17.00	✗ lost
Sofia Montenegro wins by Submission in R1 or R2	9%	21.00	✗ lost
Sofia Montenegro wins by Submission in R1	6%	31.00	✗ lost
Sofia Montenegro wins by Submission in R2	3%	51.00	✗ lost
Sofia Montenegro wins by Submission in R3	2%	71.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission value	25%	6.50	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission in R1	13%	12.50	✗ lost
Sofia Montenegro wins by KO or Sub	26%	5.20	✗ lost
Finish before Round 2	24%	5.20	✗ lost
Delphine Benouaich wins by Submission in R1	7%	18.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 1	24%	5.10	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	7%	17.00	✓ won
Sofia Montenegro wins	57%	2.10	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	46%	2.60	✓ won
Sofia Montenegro wins by Sub or Decision	43%	2.80	✗ lost
Delphine Benouaich wins by SUB	13%	9.00	✓ won
Under 2.5 rounds	41%	2.87	✓ won
Delphine Benouaich wins by Submission in R1 or R2	11%	11.00	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission in R3	5%	23.00	✗ lost
Sofia Montenegro wins in R3+ or by Decision	36%	2.85	✗ lost
Sofia Montenegro wins by KO or Decision	45%	2.25	✗ lost
Sofia Montenegro wins by DEC	31%	3.20	✗ lost
Sofia Montenegro wins by KO/TKO	14%	6.75	✗ lost
Delphine Benouaich wins by Submission in R2 or R3	6%	15.00	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	13%	7.25	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	9%	10.00	✗ lost
Sofia Montenegro wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	11%	8.00	✗ lost
Delphine Benouaich wins by Submission in R3	3%	34.00	✗ lost
Delphine Benouaich wins by KO or Sub	20%	4.50	✓ won
Sofia Montenegro wins by KO/TKO in R1	7%	12.00	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 2	76%	1.14	✓ won
Delphine Benouaich wins by Submission in R2	4%	23.00	✓ won
Sofia Montenegro wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	7%	12.00	✗ lost
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	63%	1.30	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	11%	7.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	21%	3.80	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	59%	1.36	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	54%	1.46	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	54%	1.45	✗ lost
Sofia Montenegro wins by KO/TKO in R2	4%	19.00	✗ lost
Delphine Benouaich wins by Sub or Decision	36%	2.10	✓ won
Sofia Montenegro wins by KO/TKO in R3	3%	26.00	✗ lost
Delphine Benouaich wins	43%	1.74	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	4%	15.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	6%	10.50	✗ lost
Delphine Benouaich wins in R3+ or by Decision	27%	2.30	✗ lost
Delphine Benouaich wins by KO or Decision	30%	2.03	✗ lost
Delphine Benouaich wins by DEC	23%	2.60	✗ lost
Delphine Benouaich wins by KO/TKO	7%	7.75	✗ lost
Delphine Benouaich wins by KO/TKO in R1	4%	15.00	✗ lost
Delphine Benouaich wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	5%	9.50	✗ lost
Delphine Benouaich wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	3%	13.00	✗ lost
Delphine Benouaich wins by KO/TKO in R2	2%	19.00	✗ lost
Delphine Benouaich wins by KO/TKO in R3	1%	26.00	✗ lost