Updated 2026-06-18 01:38 AEST
12
Bouts
0
Events
8
Value Bets
New here? How to read these predictions
Win probability
Our model's estimate that a fighter wins — e.g. 72% means we'd expect them to win roughly 7 of 10 times.
Confidence interval (CI)
The range the true probability likely falls in. Wider = less certain. A pick'em fight has a wide band; a clear favourite a narrow one.
Edge
How much higher our probability is than the bookmaker's implied odds. Positive edge = we think it's underpriced.
EV (expected value)
Average return if you placed the bet many times. +15% EV means about 15c profit per $1 staked, on average.
Risk tiers
Conservative leans to safe favourites, Balanced blends, Aggressive chases bigger-odds longshots. Pick what suits you.
Edge badges
Strong / Solid / Slight edge rank how much value the model sees — and how big a stake it suggests. They're not a promise the bet wins.

Tap any fight row to open the full model breakdown. New to the model itself? How it works · FAQ.

Max Holloway
Holloway
Main Event
73%
model leans Holloway
2026-07-11
Conor McGregor
McGregor
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2
2026
11
JUL
⚡ Next Event

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2

T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, USA
12
Bouts
3
Value Bouts
Max Holloway
Max Holloway
United States 27-9-0 Muay Thai Orthodox 1 loss
SB 1.32
73% | 27%
Welterweight 5 rds
⏱ Sun 12 Jul · 1:30 PM AEST
Conor McGregor
Conor McGregor
Ireland 22-6-0 Southpaw 2-fight loss streak
SB 3.30
Breakdown ▼
5 value bets on SportsBet
Model Favourite
Max Holloway
72.7 %
050100
90% CI · 43 – 98 · σ 0.052 · High
Why this pick
  • Max Holloway lands 1.6 more sig strikes per minute
  • Conor McGregor finishes 39% more of their wins
  • Conor McGregor finishes by KO 34% more often
  • Max Holloway out-volumes opponents at 6.9 sig/min vs Conor McGregor's 5.3
  • Max Holloway has never been finished in 32 fights
Method Breakdown
Holloway McGregor
KO/TKO 56.4
14.0
Submission 2.6
1.2
Decision 13.7
12.1
Finish Distribution · By Round
30
R1
20
R2
11
R3
9
R4
3
R5
26
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Holloway McGregor
Str/min 6.9
5.3
Sig Acc 48%
50%
Str Def 59%
54%
TD/min 0.02
0.04
Finish 47%
86%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
  • Sig strikes
    78
    63
    9–149 9–132
  • Sig strikes (combined) 124 19–281
  • Takedowns
    0.0
    0.2
    0.0–1.5 0.0–1.7
  • Takedowns (combined) 0.3 0.0–3.7
  • Knockdowns (combined) 0.0 0.0–0.0
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Holloway

    Max Holloway lands 1.6 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Finish rate favours McGregor

    Conor McGregor finishes 39% more of their wins

  • 03 KO rate favours McGregor

    Conor McGregor finishes by KO 34% more often

  • 04 Takedown defence favours Holloway

    Max Holloway stuffs 15% more incoming takedowns

  • 05 Loss streak favours Holloway

    Max Holloway comes in on a 1-fight cleaner skid

  • 06 Submission rate favours Holloway

    Max Holloway taps opponents 6% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 5 flagged · 76 markets analysed
  • Conor McGregor wins by DEC
    Solid edge
    Model 12%
    Bookies 8%
    EV / $100 +$45
    Stake 1.0%
    12.00
    $10 returns $120
    +$110 profit
  • Max Holloway wins by KO/TKO in R1
    Solid edge
    Model 23%
    Bookies 17%
    EV / $100 +$36
    Stake 1.8%
    6.00
    $18 returns $108
    +$90 profit
  • Max Holloway wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2
    Strong edge
    Model 38%
    Bookies 29%
    EV / $100 +$32
    Stake 3.2%
    3.45
    $32 returns $110
    +$78 profit
  • Max Holloway wins by finish in Round 1
    Solid edge
    Model 24%
    Bookies 18%
    EV / $100 +$31
    Stake 1.7%
    5.50
    $17 returns $94
    +$76 profit
  • Conor McGregor wins in R4+ or by Decision
    Solid edge
    Model 15%
    Bookies 11%
    EV / $100 +$29
    Stake 0.9%
    8.75
    $9 returns $79
    +$70 profit
Paddy Pimblett
Paddy Pimblett
England 23-4-0 Orthodox 1 loss
SB 2.45
31% | 69%
Lightweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 12 Jul · 12:45 PM AEST
Benoit Saint Denis
Benoit Saint Denis
France 17-3-0 MMA Southpaw 4-fight win streak
SB 1.53
Breakdown ▼
1 value bet on SportsBet
Model Favourite
Benoit Saint Denis
68.9 %
050100
90% CI · 39 – 98 · σ 0.064 · High
Why this pick
  • Benoit Saint Denis rides a 4-fight longer win streak
  • Benoit Saint Denis finishes 29% more of their wins
  • Benoit Saint Denis hits 0.23 more takedowns per minute
  • Benoit Saint Denis rides a 4-fight win streak (Paddy Pimblett: 0)
  • Paddy Pimblett has never been finished in 8 fights
Method Breakdown
Pimblett Denis
KO/TKO 6.8
11.7
Submission 8.4
28.3
Decision 15.9
28.9
Finish Distribution · By Round
21
R1
25
R2
10
R3
0
R4
0
R5
45
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Pimblett Denis
Str/min 5.5
5.6
Sig Acc 53%
59%
Str Def 43%
42%
TD/min 0.05
0.28
Finish 62%
92%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
  • Sig strikes
    29
    33
    7–74 9–70
  • Sig strikes (combined) 68 17–156
  • Takedowns
    0.0
    1.9
    0.0–1.7 0.0–5.4
  • Takedowns (combined) 2.4 0.0–5.1
  • Knockdowns (combined) 0.0 0.0–0.0
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Denis

    Benoit Saint Denis rides a 4-fight longer win streak

  • 02 Finish rate favours Denis

    Benoit Saint Denis finishes 29% more of their wins

  • 03 Takedown volume favours Denis

    Benoit Saint Denis hits 0.23 more takedowns per minute

  • 04 KO rate favours Denis

    Benoit Saint Denis finishes by KO 33% more often

  • 05 Strikes absorbed favours Pimblett

    Paddy Pimblett eats 0.2 fewer strikes per minute

  • 06 Takedown defence favours Denis

    Benoit Saint Denis stuffs 28% more incoming takedowns

Value Bets · SportsBet 1 flagged · 2 markets analysed
  • Benoit Saint Denis wins
    Strong edge
    Model 69%
    Bookies 65%
    EV / $100 +$5
    Stake 2.6%
    1.53
    $26 returns $40
    +$14 profit
Cory Sandhagen
Cory Sandhagen
United States 18-6-0 MMA Switch Stance 1 loss
SB 1.61
53% | 47%
Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 12 Jul · 12:15 PM AEST
Mario Bautista
Mario Bautista
United States 17-3-0 Freestyle Switch Stance 1 win
SB 2.27
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Cory Sandhagen
53.4 %
050100
90% CI · 23 – 83 · σ 0.063 · High
Why this pick
  • Cory Sandhagen eats 0.5 fewer strikes per minute
  • Mario Bautista rides a 1-fight longer win streak
  • Mario Bautista lands 0.4 more sig strikes per minute
  • Cory Sandhagen has never been finished in 16 fights
  • Mario Bautista has never been finished in 14 fights
Method Breakdown
Sandhagen Bautista
KO/TKO 16.9
8.5
Submission 4.7
8.7
Decision 31.8
29.5
Finish Distribution · By Round
15
R1
13
R2
10
R3
0
R4
0
R5
61
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Sandhagen Bautista
Str/min 4.9
5.3
Sig Acc 45%
49%
Str Def 57%
55%
TD/min 0.08
0.13
Finish 50%
50%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
  • Sig strikes
    56
    51
    10–79 10–95
  • Sig strikes (combined) 97 21–174
  • Takedowns
    0.0
    0.9
    0.0–2.3 0.0–3.1
  • Takedowns (combined) 1.9 0.0–4.7
  • Knockdowns (combined) 0.0 0.0–0.0
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Sandhagen

    Cory Sandhagen eats 0.5 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Bautista

    Mario Bautista rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 03 Striking volume favours Bautista

    Mario Bautista lands 0.4 more sig strikes per minute

  • 04 KO rate favours Sandhagen

    Cory Sandhagen finishes by KO 23% more often

  • 05 Submission rate favours Bautista

    Mario Bautista taps opponents 22% more often

  • 06 Takedown volume favours Bautista

    Mario Bautista hits 0.05 more takedowns per minute

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed
No markets passed the empirical-ROI gate. 2 markets analysed.
Brandon Royval
Brandon Royval
United States 17-9-0 Brawler Southpaw 2-fight loss streak
SB 2.39
37% | 63%
Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 12 Jul · 11:45 AM AEST
LK
Lone'er Kavanagh
3-1-0 Orthodox 1 win
SB 1.56
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Lone'er Kavanagh
62.8 %
050100
90% CI · 33 – 93 · σ 0.074 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Lone'er Kavanagh eats 0.8 fewer strikes per minute
  • Brandon Royval lands 1.4 more sig strikes per minute
  • Lone'er Kavanagh rides a 1-fight longer win streak
  • Brandon Royval out-volumes opponents at 5.5 sig/min vs Lone'er Kavanagh's 4.1
  • Brandon Royval has a 8-fight UFC experience edge (12 vs 4)
Method Breakdown
Royval Kavanagh
KO/TKO 2.2
16.1
Submission 16.5
3.8
Decision 18.5
42.9
Finish Distribution · By Round
19
R1
12
R2
6
R3
0
R4
0
R5
61
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Royval Kavanagh
Str/min 5.5
4.1
Sig Acc 42%
48%
Str Def 43%
56%
TD/min 0.04
0.08
Finish 58%
25%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
  • Sig strikes
    47
    55
    9–86 10–77
  • Sig strikes (combined) 91 21–159
  • Takedowns
    0.2
    0.6
    0.0–1.5 0.0–2.6
  • Takedowns (combined) 1.3 0.0–4.1
  • Knockdowns (combined) 0.0 0.0–0.0
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Kavanagh

    Lone'er Kavanagh eats 0.8 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Royval

    Brandon Royval lands 1.4 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Win streak favours Kavanagh

    Lone'er Kavanagh rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 04 Finish rate favours Royval

    Brandon Royval finishes 33% more of their wins

  • 05 Takedown defence favours Kavanagh

    Lone'er Kavanagh stuffs 49% more incoming takedowns

  • 06 Submission rate favours Royval

    Brandon Royval taps opponents 25% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed
No markets passed the empirical-ROI gate. 2 markets analysed.
Gable Steveson
Gable Steveson
0-0-0 nan
SB 1.04
81% | 19%
Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 12 Jul · 11:15 AM AEST
Elisha Ellison
Elisha Ellison
United States 5-2-0 Striker Orthodox 1 loss
SB 10.00
Breakdown ▼
1 value bet on SportsBet
Model Favourite
Gable Steveson
81.4 %
050100
90% CI · 51 – 98 · σ 0.042 · High
Why this pick
  • Gable Steveson comes in on a 1-fight cleaner skid
  • Model uncertainty: ±4pp on the win probability
  • Model favours Gable Steveson at 67% / Elisha Ellison at 33%
Method Breakdown
Steveson Ellison
KO/TKO 54.9
9.6
Submission 4.3
4.1
Decision 22.2
4.9
Finish Distribution · By Round
41
R1
21
R2
11
R3
0
R4
0
R5
27
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Steveson Ellison
Str/min 0.0
1.6
Sig Acc 0%
33%
Str Def 0%
41%
TD/min 0.00
0.00
Finish 0%
100%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
  • Sig strikes
    31
    16
    6–80 3–55
  • Sig strikes (combined) 46 13–131
  • Takedowns
    0.0
    0.1
    0.0–2.4 0.0–3.0
  • Takedowns (combined) 0.9 0.0–4.3
  • Knockdowns (combined) 0.0 0.0–0.0
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Loss streak favours Steveson

    Gable Steveson comes in on a 1-fight cleaner skid

Value Bets · SportsBet 1 flagged · 1 markets analysed
  • Elisha Ellison wins
    Strong edge
    Model 19%
    Bookies 10%
    EV / $100 +$86
    Stake 2.4%
    10.00
    $24 returns $240
    +$216 profit
Robert Whittaker
Robert Whittaker
Australia 27-9-0 Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
45% | 55%
Light Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 12 Jul · 9:00 AM AEST
Nikita Krylov
Nikita Krylov
Ukraine 31-11-0 Karate Orthodox 1 win
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Nikita Krylov
55.0 %
050100
90% CI · 25 – 85 · σ 0.067 · High
Why this pick
  • Nikita Krylov eats 0.8 fewer strikes per minute
  • Nikita Krylov finishes 39% more of their wins
  • Nikita Krylov rides a 1-fight longer win streak
  • Robert Whittaker has never been finished in 24 fights
  • Nikita Krylov has never been finished in 21 fights
Method Breakdown
Whittaker Krylov
KO/TKO 12.8
19.7
Submission 8.0
11.7
Decision 24.2
23.7
Finish Distribution · By Round
28
R1
18
R2
6
R3
0
R4
0
R5
48
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Whittaker Krylov
Str/min 4.4
4.4
Sig Acc 43%
54%
Str Def 60%
48%
TD/min 0.05
0.14
Finish 42%
81%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
  • Sig strikes
    42
    38
    8–84 7–71
  • Sig strikes (combined) 73 17–142
  • Takedowns
    0.2
    0.7
    0.0–1.6 0.0–2.6
  • Takedowns (combined) 1.2 0.0–4.3
  • Knockdowns (combined) 0.0 0.0–0.0
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Krylov

    Nikita Krylov eats 0.8 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Finish rate favours Krylov

    Nikita Krylov finishes 39% more of their wins

  • 03 Win streak favours Krylov

    Nikita Krylov rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 04 Submission rate favours Krylov

    Nikita Krylov taps opponents 24% more often

  • 05 Takedown defence favours Whittaker

    Robert Whittaker stuffs 29% more incoming takedowns

  • 06 Striking accuracy favours Krylov

    Nikita Krylov is 11% more accurate on the feet

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Kai Kamaka III
Kai Kamaka III
United States 18-7-1 Boxing Orthodox 1 win
33% | 67%
Featherweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 12 Jul · 9:00 AM AEST
Luke Riley
Luke Riley
England 13-0-0 Striker nan 2-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Luke Riley
66.7 %
050100
90% CI · 37 – 97 · σ 0.068 · High
Why this pick
  • Luke Riley eats 3.7 fewer strikes per minute
  • Kai Kamaka III lands 1.4 more sig strikes per minute
  • Luke Riley finishes 50% more of their wins
  • Kai Kamaka III out-volumes opponents at 7.0 sig/min vs Luke Riley's 5.6
  • Kai Kamaka III has never been finished in 1 fights
Method Breakdown
III Riley
KO/TKO 12.4
10.1
Submission 0.2
2.1
Decision 20.8
54.4
Finish Distribution · By Round
11
R1
10
R2
4
R3
0
R4
0
R5
75
DEC
Key Stats career avg
III Riley
Str/min 7.0
5.6
Sig Acc 66%
57%
Str Def 59%
65%
TD/min 0.00
0.00
Finish 0%
50%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
  • Sig strikes
    50
    61
    9–83 10–100
  • Sig strikes (combined) 106 20–166
  • Takedowns
    0.0
    0.0
    0.0–2.6 0.0–1.9
  • Takedowns (combined) 0.8 0.0–4.0
  • Knockdowns (combined) 0.0 0.0–0.0
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Riley

    Luke Riley eats 3.7 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours III

    Kai Kamaka III lands 1.4 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Finish rate favours Riley

    Luke Riley finishes 50% more of their wins

  • 04 KO rate favours Riley

    Luke Riley finishes by KO 50% more often

  • 05 Win streak favours Riley

    Luke Riley rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 06 Takedown defence favours III

    Kai Kamaka III stuffs 29% more incoming takedowns

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Cesar Almeida
Cesar Almeida
Brazil 7-2-0 Striker Orthodox 1 loss
10% | 90%
Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 12 Jul · 9:00 AM AEST
Damian Pinas
Damian Pinas
9-1-0 MMA Orthodox 1 win
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Damian Pinas
90.3 %
050100
90% CI · 60 – 98 · σ 0.076 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Damian Pinas lands 2.9 more sig strikes per minute
  • Damian Pinas eats 0.9 fewer strikes per minute
  • Damian Pinas finishes 60% more of their wins
  • Damian Pinas out-volumes opponents at 6.0 sig/min vs Cesar Almeida's 3.1
  • Cesar Almeida has never been finished in 5 fights
Method Breakdown
Almeida Pinas
KO/TKO 4.5
35.3
Submission 0.7
7.3
Decision 4.5
47.8
Finish Distribution · By Round
24
R1
15
R2
8
R3
0
R4
0
R5
52
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Almeida Pinas
Str/min 3.1
6.0
Sig Acc 58%
65%
Str Def 46%
77%
TD/min 0.00
0.00
Finish 40%
100%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
  • Sig strikes
    26
    43
    5–62 8–76
  • Sig strikes (combined) 73 19–130
  • Takedowns
    0.0
    0.2
    0.0–1.2 0.0–2.9
  • Takedowns (combined) 1.2 0.0–4.1
  • Knockdowns (combined) 0.0 0.0–0.0
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Pinas

    Damian Pinas lands 2.9 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Pinas

    Damian Pinas eats 0.9 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 Finish rate favours Pinas

    Damian Pinas finishes 60% more of their wins

  • 04 KO rate favours Pinas

    Damian Pinas finishes by KO 60% more often

  • 05 Win streak favours Pinas

    Damian Pinas rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 06 Takedown defence favours Pinas

    Damian Pinas stuffs 53% more incoming takedowns

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Cody Garbrandt
Cody Garbrandt
United States 15-7-0 Freestyle Orthodox 1 win
37% | 63%
Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 12 Jul · 9:00 AM AEST
Adrian Yanez
Adrian Yanez
United States 17-6-1 Boxer Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Adrian Yanez
62.8 %
050100
90% CI · 33 – 93 · σ 0.072 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Adrian Yanez lands 3.1 more sig strikes per minute
  • Cody Garbrandt eats 1.6 fewer strikes per minute
  • Cody Garbrandt rides a 1-fight longer win streak
  • Adrian Yanez out-volumes opponents at 5.9 sig/min vs Cody Garbrandt's 2.8
  • Adrian Yanez KOs 70% of opponents — Cody Garbrandt has been KO'd in 24% of losses
Method Breakdown
Garbrandt Yanez
KO/TKO 11.3
32.3
Submission 2.2
4.9
Decision 23.7
25.5
Finish Distribution · By Round
31
R1
16
R2
3
R3
0
R4
0
R5
49
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Garbrandt Yanez
Str/min 2.8
5.9
Sig Acc 40%
41%
Str Def 59%
56%
TD/min 0.06
0.00
Finish 65%
70%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
  • Sig strikes
    44
    47
    7–75 9–81
  • Sig strikes (combined) 84 17–142
  • Takedowns
    0.0
    0.0
    0.0–1.5 0.0–1.6
  • Takedowns (combined) 0.3 0.0–3.6
  • Knockdowns (combined) 0.0 0.0–0.0
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Yanez

    Adrian Yanez lands 3.1 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Garbrandt

    Cody Garbrandt eats 1.6 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 Win streak favours Garbrandt

    Cody Garbrandt rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 04 Loss streak favours Garbrandt

    Cody Garbrandt comes in on a 2-fight cleaner skid

  • 05 KO rate favours Yanez

    Adrian Yanez finishes by KO 11% more often

  • 06 Takedown volume favours Garbrandt

    Cody Garbrandt hits 0.06 more takedowns per minute

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Wang Cong
Wang Cong
China 9-1-0 Striker Southpaw 3-fight win streak
53% | 47%
Women's Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 12 Jul · 9:00 AM AEST
Tracy Cortez
Tracy Cortez
United States 12-3-0 MMA Orthodox 1 loss
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Wang Cong
52.9 %
050100
90% CI · 23 – 83 · σ 0.079 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Wang Cong rides a 3-fight longer win streak
  • Wang Cong lands 2.4 more sig strikes per minute
  • Wang Cong eats 0.8 fewer strikes per minute
  • Wang Cong rides a 3-fight win streak (Tracy Cortez: 0)
  • Wang Cong out-volumes opponents at 6.2 sig/min vs Tracy Cortez's 3.8
Method Breakdown
Cong Cortez
KO/TKO 6.7
8.7
Submission 3.8
5.1
Decision 42.5
33.3
Finish Distribution · By Round
12
R1
8
R2
4
R3
0
R4
0
R5
76
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Cong Cortez
Str/min 6.2
3.8
Sig Acc 56%
48%
Str Def 63%
58%
TD/min 0.04
0.13
Finish 40%
12%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
  • Sig strikes
    57
    52
    10–96 9–77
  • Sig strikes (combined) 110 22–159
  • Takedowns
    0.1
    1.4
    0.0–1.5 0.0–3.3
  • Takedowns (combined) 1.6 0.0–4.9
  • Knockdowns (combined) 0.0 0.0–0.0
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Cong

    Wang Cong rides a 3-fight longer win streak

  • 02 Striking volume favours Cong

    Wang Cong lands 2.4 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Strikes absorbed favours Cong

    Wang Cong eats 0.8 fewer strikes per minute

  • 04 Finish rate favours Cong

    Wang Cong finishes 28% more of their wins

  • 05 KO rate favours Cong

    Wang Cong finishes by KO 20% more often

  • 06 Takedown defence favours Cong

    Wang Cong stuffs 26% more incoming takedowns

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Ode Osbourne
Ode Osbourne
Jamaica 13-9-0 Striker Southpaw 2-fight loss streak
38% | 62%
Flyweight 3 rds
Cody Durden
Cody Durden
United States 18-10-1 Striker Southpaw 1 win
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Cody Durden
62.3 %
050100
90% CI · 32 – 92 · σ 0.083 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Ode Osbourne eats 0.7 fewer strikes per minute
  • Cody Durden rides a 1-fight longer win streak
  • Cody Durden hits 0.21 more takedowns per minute
  • Cody Durden has never been finished in 16 fights
  • Ode Osbourne has never been finished in 13 fights
Method Breakdown
Osbourne Durden
KO/TKO 10.2
11.5
Submission 6.3
11.3
Decision 21.2
39.5
Finish Distribution · By Round
15
R1
17
R2
7
R3
0
R4
0
R5
61
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Osbourne Durden
Str/min 2.9
3.2
Sig Acc 40%
45%
Str Def 49%
51%
TD/min 0.06
0.27
Finish 62%
50%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
  • Sig strikes
    29
    36
    8–68 7–71
  • Sig strikes (combined) 66 19–130
  • Takedowns
    0.0
    1.2
    0.0–1.5 0.0–4.0
  • Takedowns (combined) 2.3 0.0–5.5
  • Knockdowns (combined) 0.0 0.0–0.0
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Osbourne

    Ode Osbourne eats 0.7 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Durden

    Cody Durden rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 03 Takedown volume favours Durden

    Cody Durden hits 0.21 more takedowns per minute

  • 04 KO rate favours Osbourne

    Ode Osbourne finishes by KO 20% more often

  • 05 Striking volume favours Durden

    Cody Durden lands 0.4 more sig strikes per minute

  • 06 Finish rate favours Osbourne

    Ode Osbourne finishes 12% more of their wins

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
ZR
Zachary Reese
United States 10-3-0
50% | 50%
Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 12 Jul · 7:00 AM AEST
Ryan Gandra
Ryan Gandra
Brazil 9-1-0 MMA Orthodox 1 win
Breakdown ▼
⟁ Win prediction & SportsBet odds will populate closer to event night. Career stats below.

Fighter Statistics

ReeseGandra
Career record 10-3-0 9-1-0
Last 3 win % — 100%
Finish rate — 100%
KO/TKO rate — 100%
Sub rate — 0%
Sig strikes / min ↑ — 20.5

Predicted Outcomes

Win probability and method/round breakdowns appear here once the matrix processes this card.

Tip: stats above are computed from each fighter's full UFC history. Compare KO/TKO rate vs sub rate to gauge likely method even before predictions land.