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Track record
Every pick, graded
What the model said before each fight, what happened, and the locked bets it would have placed. Losses stay on the page.
77 of 111
confident picks landed — when the model gives a fighter 70%+ it has been right 69% of the time
20–30
betting record with the same amount on every recommended bet (-2.3 units — early days, small sample)
Bankroll curve
+$852
2026-06-15
peak $990 · trough $-1008
2026-10-31
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 8/13 · 62%
2026-07-11
Model Prediction
Max Holloway
✓ won
74%
KO 46%·
Sub 3%·
Dec 25%
Conor McGregor
26%
KO 13%·
Sub 3%·
Dec 10%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Max Holloway wins | 74% | 1.33 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Max Holloway wins by KO/TKO | 46% | 1.83 | ✓ predicted |
| Finish round Finish in Round 1 | 25% | — | ✓ predicted |
Model Prediction
Paddy Pimblett
✓ won
25%
KO 7%·
Sub 7%·
Dec 11%
Benoît Saint Denis
75%
KO 20%·
Sub 16%·
Dec 39%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Benoît Saint Denis wins value | 75% | 1.81 | missed |
| Method Benoît Saint Denis wins by Decision value | 39% | 5.30 | missed |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 49% | 2.67 | missed |
Model Prediction
Cory Sandhagen
48%
KO 16%·
Sub 7%·
Dec 26%
Mario Bautista
✓ won
52%
KO 9%·
Sub 13%·
Dec 30%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Mario Bautista wins value | 52% | 3.10 | ✓ predicted |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 56% | — | ✓ predicted |
Model Prediction
Brandon Royval
✓ won
34%
KO 4%·
Sub 12%·
Dec 19%
Lone'er Kavanagh
66%
KO 11%·
Sub 4%·
Dec 52%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Lone'er Kavanagh wins value | 66% | 4.20 | missed |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 70% | — | missed |
Model Prediction
King Green
✓ won
42%
KO 16%·
Sub 8%·
Dec 17%
Terrance McKinney
58%
KO 21%·
Sub 9%·
Dec 28%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Terrance McKinney wins value | 58% | 1.96 | missed |
| Method Terrance McKinney wins by Decision value | 28% | 31.00 | missed |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 45% | 8.50 | missed |
Model Prediction
Robert Whittaker
✓ won
44%
KO 15%·
Sub 6%·
Dec 23%
Nikita Krylov
56%
KO 19%·
Sub 12%·
Dec 25%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Nikita Krylov wins value | 56% | 2.05 | missed |
| Method Nikita Krylov wins by Decision | 25% | 4.80 | missed |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 48% | 2.33 | missed |
Model Prediction
Gable Steveson
✓ won
68%
KO 50%·
Sub 2%·
Dec 16%
Elisha Ellison
32%
KO 16%·
Sub 7%·
Dec 9%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Gable Steveson wins | 68% | 1.07 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Gable Steveson wins by KO/TKO | 50% | 1.47 | ✓ predicted |
| Finish round Finish in Round 1 | 39% | — | ✓ predicted |
Model Prediction
Cody Garbrandt
39%
KO 15%·
Sub 2%·
Dec 21%
Adrian Yañez
✓ won
61%
KO 36%·
Sub 4%·
Dec 21%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Adrian Yañez wins | 61% | 1.24 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Adrian Yañez wins by KO/TKO | 36% | 2.03 | ✓ predicted |
| Finish round Finish in Round 1 | 33% | — | ✓ predicted |
Model Prediction
Kai Kamaka III
32%
KO 9%·
Sub 0%·
Dec 22%
Luke Riley
✓ won
68%
KO 12%·
Sub 0%·
Dec 56%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Luke Riley wins | 68% | 1.30 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Luke Riley wins by Decision value | 56% | 2.80 | missed |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 78% | 1.95 | missed |
Model Prediction
Wang Cong
✓ won
52%
KO 10%·
Sub 4%·
Dec 37%
Tracy Cortez
48%
KO 9%·
Sub 4%·
Dec 35%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Tracy Cortez wins value | 48% | 16.00 | missed |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 72% | — | ✓ predicted |
Model Prediction
Cesar Almeida
11%
KO 4%·
Sub 1%·
Dec 6%
Damian Pinas
✓ won
89%
KO 44%·
Sub 6%·
Dec 39%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Damian Pinas wins value | 89% | 1.30 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Damian Pinas wins by KO/TKO | 44% | 2.07 | ✓ predicted |
| Finish round Finish in Round 1 | 28% | — | ✓ predicted |
Model Prediction
Farid Basharat
✓ won
89%
KO 9%·
Sub 66%·
Dec 13%
John Garza
11%
KO 4%·
Sub 4%·
Dec 4%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Farid Basharat wins | 89% | 1.13 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Farid Basharat wins by Submission value | 66% | 2.70 | missed |
| Finish round Finish in Round 2 | 36% | — | missed |
Model Prediction dead even — no pick
Zach Reese
50%
KO 16%·
Sub 15%·
Dec 18%
Ryan Gandra
✓ won
50%
KO 18%·
Sub 3%·
Dec 29%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Ryan Gandra wins | 50% | 1.74 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Ryan Gandra wins by Decision value | 29% | 8.50 | missed |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 47% | 4.25 | missed |
Model Prediction
Cody Durden
53%
KO 16%·
Sub 8%·
Dec 29%
Alessandro Costa
✓ won
47%
KO 20%·
Sub 9%·
Dec 18%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Cody Durden wins value | 53% | 2.90 | missed |
| Method Cody Durden wins by Decision value | 29% | 5.00 | missed |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 47% | 2.33 | missed |