UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 — Results & Recap

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⟁ Past Events — Predictions vs. Actual Results

99 / 134

Correct Picks

73.9% accuracy · 12 events

−$304

Parlay P&L

$33 / parlay (2·3·4-leg) · 1-10 · 11 parlays

−$430

Running P&L · opening

$1000 / event · Conservative · Kelly-weighted · closing: +$369

44 of 51 confident picks landed — when the model gives a fighter 70%+ it has been right 86% of the time

10–15 betting record with the same amount on every recommended bet (-7.1 units — early days, small sample)

Bankroll curve $1000 per event · Conservative tier · opening odds −$430

2026-06-15 peak $125 · trough $-471 2026-08-01

UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez 2026-08-01 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · −$33

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Mateusz Rebecki wins	Kyle Prepolec vs Mateusz Rebecki	1.18	$80	✓ won +$14
Oban Elliott wins	Oban Elliott vs Michael Oliveira	3.57	$80	✗ lost −$80
Bogdan Grad wins	Dennis Buzukja vs Bogdan Grad	1.52	$62	✓ won +$32
Fight goes to Decision	Daniel Rodriguez vs Uros Medic	7.25	—	⋯ pending

UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov 2026-07-25 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · −$102

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Nurullo Aliev wins	Mike Davis vs Nurullo Aliev	1.54	$80	✓ won +$43
Tyrell Fortune wins	Rizvan Kuniev vs Tyrell Fortune	3.34	$80	✗ lost −$80
Damian Rzepecki wins	Magomed Zaynukov vs Damian Rzepecki	3.73	$43	✗ lost −$43
Dustin Jacoby wins	Dustin Jacoby vs Muhammad Said	1.59	$23	✗ lost −$23

UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman 2026-07-18 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · +$38

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Chase Hooper wins	Chase Hooper vs Mitch Ramirez	1.27	$80	✓ won +$22
Christian Leroy Duncan wins	Jared Cannonier vs Christian Leroy Duncan	1.32	$80	✓ won +$26
Dricus Du Plessis wins by SUB	Kamaru Usman vs Dricus Du Plessis	9.25	$55	✗ lost −$55
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani wins	Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs Seokhyeon Ko	2.66	$28	✓ won +$46

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 2026-07-11 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly · −$200

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Elisha Ellison wins	Gable Steveson vs Elisha Ellison	10.00	$138	✗ lost −$138
Benoit Saint Denis wins	Paddy Pimblett vs Benoit Saint Denis	1.53	$62	✗ lost −$62

UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres 2026-06-27 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly · −$216

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Manuel Torres wins	Rafael Fiziev vs Manuel Torres	1.96	$115	✗ lost −$115
Eric Nolan wins by Sub or Decision	Eric Nolan vs Farman Hasanov	5.30	$70	✗ lost −$70
Matheus Camilo wins	Nazim Sadykhov vs Matheus Camilo	2.99	$48	✓ won +$95
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	Julius Walker vs Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev	3.92	$44	✗ lost −$44
Fight reaches Round 2	Julius Walker vs Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev	2.17	$44	✗ lost −$44
Michel Pereira wins	Michel Pereira vs Shara Magomedov	3.82	$37	✗ lost −$37

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi 2 2026-06-20 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly · +$109

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Luana Santos wins	Karol Rosa vs Luana Santos	1.97	$157	✓ won +$152
Kyoji Horiguchi wins by KO/TKO	Kyoji Horiguchi vs Manel Kape	11.50	$43	✗ lost −$43

UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje 2026-06-15 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly · −$26

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Josh Hokit wins by KO or Decision	Derrick Lewis vs Josh Hokit	1.78	$73	✓ won +$57
Ilia Topuria wins by DEC	Justin Gaethje vs Ilia Topuria	13.00	$57	✗ lost −$57
Steve Garcia wins	Steve Garcia vs Diego Lopes	2.48	$52	✗ lost −$52
Bo Nickal wins by KO or Decision	Kyle Daukaus vs Bo Nickal	1.71	$38	✓ won +$27

UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez 2026-08-01 · $33/parlay · −$7

2-leg parlay @ 1.79 · $33 stake ✓ WON +$26

3-leg parlay @ 2.31 ⋯ pending

4-leg parlay @ 5.28 · $33 stake ✗ LOST −$33

UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov 2026-07-25 · $33/parlay · −$99

2-leg parlay @ 2.45 · $33 stake ✗ LOST −$33

3-leg parlay @ 4.82 · $33 stake ✗ LOST −$33

4-leg parlay @ 7.24 · $33 stake ✗ LOST −$33

UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman 2026-07-18 · $33/parlay · −$99

2-leg parlay @ 2.24 · $33 stake ✗ LOST −$33

3-leg parlay @ 4.22 · $33 stake ✗ LOST −$33

4-leg parlay @ 5.36 · $33 stake ✗ LOST −$33

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 2026-07-11 · $33/parlay · −$99

2-leg parlay @ 1.99 · $33 stake ✗ LOST −$33

3-leg parlay @ 3.02 · $33 stake ✗ LOST −$33

4-leg parlay @ 4.74 · $33 stake ✗ LOST −$33

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 8/13 · 62%

2026-07-11

Max Holloway

27-9-0

Winner

Max Holloway

KO/TKO · R1

✓ predicted

Conor McGregor

22-6-0

▼

Model Prediction

Max Holloway ✓ won 74%

KO 46%· Sub 3%· Dec 25%

Conor McGregor 26%

KO 13%· Sub 3%· Dec 10%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Max Holloway wins	74%	1.33	✓ predicted
Method Max Holloway wins by KO/TKO	46%	1.83	✓ predicted
Finish round Finish in Round 1	25%	—	✓ predicted

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Fight goes to decision	36%	4.60	✗ lost
Max Holloway wins by DEC value	25%	6.25	✗ lost
Max Holloway wins by Decision value	25%	6.00	✗ lost
Conor McGregor wins by DEC	10%	14.00	✗ lost
Max Holloway wins by Sub or Decision	28%	4.40	✗ lost
Conor McGregor wins by Sub or Decision	13%	9.25	✗ lost
Conor McGregor wins by Decision	10%	10.50	✗ lost
Max Holloway wins by finish in Round 1	19%	5.50	✓ won
Max Holloway wins by KO or Decision	71%	1.46	✓ won
Over 2.5 rounds	54%	1.83	✗ lost
Max Holloway wins	74%	1.33	✓ won
Conor McGregor wins	26%	3.37	✗ lost
Conor McGregor wins by KO or Decision	24%	3.60	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	46%	1.83	✓ won
Max Holloway wins by KO/TKO	46%	1.83	✓ won
Max Holloway wins by KO or Sub	48%	1.64	✓ won
Fight ends before decision	64%	1.17	✓ won
Max Holloway wins by finish in Round 2	12%	6.00	✗ lost
Conor McGregor wins by KO or Sub	16%	3.90	✗ lost
Conor McGregor wins by KO/TKO	13%	4.60	✗ lost
Max Holloway wins by finish in Round 4	7%	7.50	✗ lost
Conor McGregor wins by SUB	3%	21.00	✗ lost
Conor McGregor wins by finish in Round 1	6%	8.50	✗ lost
Max Holloway wins by finish in Round 3	8%	6.50	✗ lost
Conor McGregor wins by finish in Round 4	2%	17.00	✗ lost
Conor McGregor wins by finish in Round 2	4%	10.00	✗ lost
Max Holloway wins by SUB	3%	11.50	✗ lost
Conor McGregor wins by finish in Round 3	3%	12.00	✗ lost
Conor McGregor wins by finish in Round 5	1%	34.00	✗ lost
Max Holloway wins by finish in Round 5	2%	8.50	✗ lost

Paddy Pimblett

23-4-0

Winner

Paddy Pimblett

SUB · R1

✗ wrong

Benoît Saint Denis

17-3-0

▼

Model Prediction

Paddy Pimblett ✓ won 25%

KO 7%· Sub 7%· Dec 11%

Benoît Saint Denis 75%

KO 20%· Sub 16%· Dec 39%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Benoît Saint Denis wins value	75%	1.81	missed
Method Benoît Saint Denis wins by Decision value	39%	5.30	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	49%	2.67	missed

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Benoît Saint Denis wins by DEC value	39%	5.30	✗ lost
Benoît Saint Denis wins by Decision value	39%	5.00	✗ lost
Benoît Saint Denis wins by KO or Decision value	59%	2.55	✗ lost
Benoît Saint Denis wins by Sub or Decision value	55%	2.65	✗ lost
Benoît Saint Denis wins value	75%	1.81	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	49%	2.67	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	49%	2.60	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	53%	2.20	✗ lost
Benoît Saint Denis wins by KO/TKO in R2	9%	13.00	✗ lost
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	57%	1.92	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 2	79%	1.37	✗ lost
Benoît Saint Denis wins by finish in Round 2	16%	6.50	✗ lost
Benoît Saint Denis wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	12%	8.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	12%	8.00	✗ lost
Benoît Saint Denis wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	17%	5.60	✗ lost
Benoît Saint Denis wins by KO/TKO	20%	4.60	✗ lost
Benoît Saint Denis wins by Submission in R2	7%	13.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 49.5	68%	1.31	—
Benoît Saint Denis wins by KO or Sub	36%	2.45	✗ lost
Paddy Pimblett significant strikes over 19.5	71%	1.25	—
Total takedowns over 0.5	79%	1.12	—
Benoît Saint Denis significant strikes over 19.5	71%	1.22	—
Benoît Saint Denis takedowns over 1.5	55%	1.57	—
Total takedowns over 1.5	61%	1.37	—
Total significant strikes over 59.5	59%	1.42	—
Benoît Saint Denis takedowns over 0.5	68%	1.22	—
Fight ends by Submission in R2	10%	8.25	✗ lost
Benoît Saint Denis wins by Submission in R1 or R2	13%	5.90	✗ lost
Benoît Saint Denis significant strikes over 29.5	56%	1.40	—
Finish before Round 3	43%	1.81	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 69.5	50%	1.55	—
Paddy Pimblett significant strikes over 29.5	53%	1.45	—
Benoît Saint Denis wins by SUB	16%	4.80	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	47%	1.61	✓ won
Total takedowns over 2.5	46%	1.64	—
Fight ends by KO/TKO	28%	2.70	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	51%	1.44	✓ won
Benoît Saint Denis takedowns over 2.5	40%	1.83	—
Total significant strikes over 79.5	42%	1.69	—
Benoît Saint Denis significant strikes over 39.5	42%	1.67	—
Benoît Saint Denis wins by KO/TKO in R1	8%	8.25	✗ lost
Paddy Pimblett significant strikes over 39.5	39%	1.72	—
Benoît Saint Denis wins by finish in Round 1	15%	4.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	23%	2.85	✓ won
Total takedowns over 3.5	32%	2.00	—
Total significant strikes over 89.5	34%	1.84	—
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	11%	5.30	✗ lost
Benoît Saint Denis wins by KO/TKO in R3	3%	19.00	✗ lost
Benoît Saint Denis wins by Submission in R1	7%	8.75	✗ lost
Benoît Saint Denis takedowns over 3.5	25%	2.30	—
Paddy Pimblett takedowns over 0.5	23%	2.40	—
Paddy Pimblett significant strikes over 49.5	26%	2.10	—
Benoît Saint Denis significant strikes over 49.5	27%	2.00	—
Total significant strikes over 99.5	27%	2.00	—
Paddy Pimblett wins by Decision	11%	5.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	9%	5.60	✓ won
Paddy Pimblett wins by DEC	11%	4.90	✗ lost
Paddy Pimblett wins by Submission in R2	3%	17.00	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 4.5	20%	2.55	—
Paddy Pimblett wins by KO/TKO in R2	3%	16.00	✗ lost
Paddy Pimblett wins by Sub or Decision	18%	2.90	✓ won
Paddy Pimblett wins	25%	2.04	✓ won
Paddy Pimblett wins by KO or Decision	18%	2.80	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 109.5	23%	2.20	—
Paddy Pimblett takedowns over 1.5	10%	5.00	—
Paddy Pimblett significant strikes over 59.5	18%	2.63	—
Total significant strikes over 119.5	20%	2.40	—
Total significant strikes over 129.5	17%	2.75	—
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	4%	11.00	✗ lost
Benoît Saint Denis wins by Submission in R3	2%	19.00	✗ lost
Paddy Pimblett wins by KO or Sub	14%	3.20	✓ won
Paddy Pimblett wins by Submission in R1 or R2	6%	7.75	✓ won
Paddy Pimblett wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	6%	7.25	✗ lost
Benoît Saint Denis significant strikes over 59.5	19%	2.40	—
Total significant strikes over 139.5	15%	3.05	—
Benoît Saint Denis wins by finish in Round 1	15%	3.00	✗ lost
Benoît Saint Denis takedowns over 4.5	14%	3.10	—
Paddy Pimblett wins by KO/TKO	7%	5.90	✗ lost
Paddy Pimblett wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	4%	10.00	✗ lost
Paddy Pimblett wins by Submission in R2 or R3	4%	10.50	✗ lost
Paddy Pimblett wins by SUB	7%	6.00	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 149.5	12%	3.45	—
Fight ends by Submission in R3	4%	11.50	✗ lost
Paddy Pimblett significant strikes over 69.5	11%	3.25	—
Total significant strikes over 159.5	9%	3.90	—
Total takedowns over 5.5	11%	3.15	—
Paddy Pimblett wins by KO/TKO in R1	3%	11.50	✗ lost
Paddy Pimblett wins by Submission in R1	3%	12.00	✓ won
Benoît Saint Denis significant strikes over 69.5	11%	3.00	—
Total significant strikes over 169.5	7%	4.50	—
Paddy Pimblett wins by finish in Round 1	6%	4.10	✓ won
Paddy Pimblett wins by KO/TKO in R3	1%	21.00	✗ lost
Paddy Pimblett wins by Submission in R3	1%	21.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 179.5	4%	5.10	—
Paddy Pimblett significant strikes over 79.5	4%	4.00	—
Benoît Saint Denis significant strikes over 79.5	4%	3.75	—
Total takedowns over 6.5	3%	4.00	—
Total significant strikes over 189.5	1%	6.00	—
Total knockdowns over 0.5	2%	1.77	—

Cory Sandhagen

18-6-0

Winner

Mario Bautista

Decision (U) · R3

✓ predicted

Mario Bautista

17-3-0

▼

Model Prediction

Cory Sandhagen 48%

KO 16%· Sub 7%· Dec 26%

Mario Bautista ✓ won 52%

KO 9%· Sub 13%· Dec 30%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Mario Bautista wins value	52%	3.10	✓ predicted
Finish round Goes the distance	56%	—	✓ predicted

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Mario Bautista wins value	52%	3.10	✓ won
Cory Sandhagen wins	48%	1.32	✗ lost

Brandon Royval

17-9-0

Winner

Brandon Royval

SUB · R3

✗ wrong

Lone'er Kavanagh

3-2-0

▼

Model Prediction

Brandon Royval ✓ won 34%

KO 4%· Sub 12%· Dec 19%

Lone'er Kavanagh 66%

KO 11%· Sub 4%· Dec 52%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Lone'er Kavanagh wins value	66%	4.20	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	70%	—	missed

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Lone'er Kavanagh wins value	66%	4.20	✗ lost
Brandon Royval wins	34%	1.19	✓ won

King Green

35-17-1

Winner

King Green

KO/TKO · R1

✗ wrong

Terrance McKinney

18-8-0

▼

Model Prediction

King Green ✓ won 42%

KO 16%· Sub 8%· Dec 17%

Terrance McKinney 58%

KO 21%· Sub 9%· Dec 28%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Terrance McKinney wins value	58%	1.96	missed
Method Terrance McKinney wins by Decision value	28%	31.00	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	45%	8.50	missed

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Terrance McKinney wins by Decision value	28%	34.00	✗ lost
Terrance McKinney wins by DEC value	28%	31.00	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	45%	9.25	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	45%	8.50	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 3	51%	5.40	✗ lost
King Green wins by DEC value	17%	14.00	✗ lost
King Green wins by Decision	17%	10.50	✗ lost
Terrance McKinney wins by KO/TKO in R2	7%	23.00	✗ lost
Terrance McKinney wins by Sub or Decision value	37%	4.60	✗ lost
King Green significant strikes over 49.5	39%	4.33	—
Terrance McKinney wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	10%	17.00	✗ lost
King Green significant strikes over 39.5	48%	3.40	—
Terrance McKinney significant strikes over 39.5	48%	3.25	—
King Green significant strikes over 59.5	30%	5.00	—
Total significant strikes over 79.5	46%	3.30	—
Total significant strikes over 69.5	53%	2.85	—
Total significant strikes over 89.5	39%	3.80	—
King Green significant strikes over 29.5	59%	2.50	—
Under 2.5 rounds	52%	2.75	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 59.5	60%	2.40	—
Terrance McKinney wins by KO or Decision value	49%	2.90	✗ lost
Terrance McKinney significant strikes over 49.5	33%	4.33	—
Total significant strikes over 99.5	32%	4.40	—
Terrance McKinney significant strikes over 29.5	60%	2.30	—
King Green significant strikes over 69.5	21%	6.50	—
Total significant strikes over 49.5	66%	2.03	—
King Green wins by Sub or Decision	26%	5.25	✗ lost
King Green significant strikes over 19.5	71%	1.80	—
Total significant strikes over 109.5	25%	4.90	—
Total significant strikes over 119.5	22%	5.60	—
Terrance McKinney wins by finish in Round 2	11%	11.00	✗ lost
Terrance McKinney significant strikes over 19.5	72%	1.62	—
Terrance McKinney significant strikes over 59.5	21%	5.50	—
Total significant strikes over 129.5	19%	6.25	—
Terrance McKinney wins value	58%	1.96	✗ lost
Terrance McKinney wins by KO/TKO in R3	2%	51.00	✗ lost
Terrance McKinney wins by Submission in R2	3%	34.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 139.5	15%	7.00	—
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	13%	7.75	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	6%	16.00	✗ lost
King Green takedowns over 1.5	16%	6.00	—
Total significant strikes over 149.5	12%	7.75	—
Terrance McKinney significant strikes over 69.5	13%	7.00	—
Total takedowns over 1.5	56%	1.67	—
Terrance McKinney takedowns over 0.5	64%	1.45	—
Total takedowns over 0.5	74%	1.22	—
Total takedowns over 2.5	38%	2.30	—
Terrance McKinney wins by Submission in R3	1%	91.00	✗ lost
King Green significant strikes over 79.5	11%	8.00	—
Total significant strikes over 159.5	9%	9.00	—
Terrance McKinney takedowns over 1.5	39%	2.10	—
King Green wins	42%	1.88	✓ won
King Green wins by KO or Decision	33%	2.30	✓ won
King Green takedowns over 0.5	34%	2.25	—
King Green wins by Submission in R2	3%	26.00	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 3.5	22%	3.30	—
Total takedowns over 4.5	13%	5.60	—
King Green wins by Submission in R2 or R3	4%	19.00	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	48%	1.40	✗ lost
Terrance McKinney wins by KO/TKO	21%	3.10	✗ lost
Terrance McKinney wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	19%	3.20	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	2%	34.00	✗ lost
Terrance McKinney wins by KO or Sub	31%	1.99	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	4%	16.00	✗ lost
King Green wins by SUB	8%	7.25	✗ lost
King Green wins by Submission in R1 or R2	7%	8.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 169.5	6%	10.00	—
Fight ends before decision	55%	1.05	✓ won
Finish before Round 3	50%	1.13	✓ won
King Green wins by KO/TKO in R2	6%	10.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	18%	3.15	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	37%	1.47	✓ won
King Green wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	7%	7.25	✗ lost
Terrance McKinney takedowns over 2.5	18%	2.88	—
Terrance McKinney significant strikes over 79.5	6%	9.00	—
King Green wins by KO or Sub	24%	2.03	✓ won
Terrance McKinney wins by SUB	9%	5.10	✗ lost
King Green wins by Submission in R1	5%	10.00	✗ lost
Terrance McKinney wins by Submission in R1 or R2	8%	5.25	✗ lost
King Green wins by Submission in R3	1%	51.00	✗ lost
King Green wins by KO/TKO	16%	2.65	✓ won
King Green wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	14%	2.95	✓ won
Terrance McKinney wins by KO/TKO in R1	12%	3.50	✗ lost
King Green wins by finish in Round 1	13%	3.00	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	21%	1.93	✓ won
Terrance McKinney wins by finish in Round 1	17%	2.25	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	10%	3.90	✗ lost
Terrance McKinney wins by finish in Round 1	17%	2.07	✗ lost
King Green wins by KO/TKO in R1	9%	3.90	✓ won
Total takedowns over 5.5	4%	8.50	—
King Green wins by KO/TKO in R3	2%	19.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 179.5	3%	11.50	—
King Green wins by finish in Round 1	13%	2.25	✓ won
Terrance McKinney wins by Submission in R1	5%	5.80	✗ lost
Terrance McKinney takedowns over 3.5	5%	4.50	—
King Green significant strikes over 89.5	1%	10.00	—
Total knockdowns over 0.5	2%	1.20	—

Robert Whittaker

27-9-0

Winner

Robert Whittaker

KO/TKO · R3

✗ wrong

Nikita Krylov

31-11-0

▼

Model Prediction

Robert Whittaker ✓ won 44%

KO 15%· Sub 6%· Dec 23%

Nikita Krylov 56%

KO 19%· Sub 12%· Dec 25%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Nikita Krylov wins value	56%	2.05	missed
Method Nikita Krylov wins by Decision	25%	4.80	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	48%	2.33	missed

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Robert Whittaker takedowns over 0.5	40%	3.60	—
Fight ends by Submission in R2	8%	17.00	✗ lost
Robert Whittaker wins by Submission in R2	3%	51.00	✗ lost
Nikita Krylov wins by Decision	25%	5.00	✗ lost
Nikita Krylov wins by Submission in R2	5%	23.00	✗ lost
Nikita Krylov wins by Sub or Decision	37%	3.35	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	18%	6.75	✗ lost
Nikita Krylov wins by DEC	25%	4.80	✗ lost
Nikita Krylov wins value	56%	2.05	✗ lost
Nikita Krylov wins by Submission in R1 or R2	10%	11.00	✗ lost
Nikita Krylov wins by finish in Round 2	14%	8.00	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	48%	2.33	✗ lost
Robert Whittaker wins by Submission in R1 or R2	5%	21.00	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	51%	2.10	—
Fight goes to Decision	48%	2.25	✗ lost
Nikita Krylov wins by SUB	12%	9.00	✗ lost
Robert Whittaker wins by SUB	6%	18.00	✗ lost
Robert Whittaker wins by Submission in R2 or R3	3%	31.00	✗ lost
Nikita Krylov wins by KO or Decision	44%	2.40	✗ lost
Nikita Krylov wins by KO/TKO in R2	9%	12.00	✗ lost
Robert Whittaker wins by Sub or Decision	29%	3.60	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 2	78%	1.31	✓ won
Nikita Krylov wins by KO or Sub	31%	3.20	✗ lost
Nikita Krylov significant strikes over 29.5	61%	1.62	—
Robert Whittaker significant strikes over 39.5	54%	1.83	—
Robert Whittaker significant strikes over 19.5	78%	1.25	—
Robert Whittaker wins by DEC	23%	4.25	✗ lost
Robert Whittaker significant strikes over 49.5	42%	2.30	—
Total significant strikes over 119.5	27%	3.50	—
Robert Whittaker significant strikes over 29.5	66%	1.45	—
Total significant strikes over 109.5	33%	2.90	—
Robert Whittaker significant strikes over 59.5	31%	3.10	—
Nikita Krylov significant strikes over 19.5	73%	1.30	—
Total significant strikes over 99.5	39%	2.45	—
Fight ends by Submission in R1	8%	12.50	✗ lost
Nikita Krylov significant strikes over 39.5	47%	2.00	—
Nikita Krylov wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	17%	5.50	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 89.5	44%	2.10	—
Total significant strikes over 79.5	50%	1.84	—
Nikita Krylov takedowns over 0.5	58%	1.57	—
Robert Whittaker wins by Decision	23%	4.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 49.5	68%	1.35	—
Total significant strikes over 59.5	62%	1.48	—
Total significant strikes over 69.5	56%	1.63	—
Nikita Krylov wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	11%	8.00	✗ lost
Finish before Round 3	46%	1.94	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 129.5	21%	4.30	—
Nikita Krylov wins by KO/TKO	19%	4.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	16%	5.60	✗ lost
Robert Whittaker takedowns over 1.5	13%	6.50	—
Nikita Krylov wins by Submission in R1	5%	17.00	✗ lost
Robert Whittaker wins by Submission in R1	2%	34.00	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 0.5	62%	1.37	—
Robert Whittaker significant strikes over 69.5	19%	4.33	—
Fight ends before decision	52%	1.56	✓ won
Under 2.5 rounds	49%	1.66	—
Nikita Krylov wins by finish in Round 1	13%	6.00	✗ lost
Robert Whittaker wins	44%	1.80	✓ won
Nikita Krylov significant strikes over 69.5	13%	5.50	—
Total takedowns over 1.5	41%	1.75	—
Robert Whittaker wins by KO or Decision	38%	1.90	✓ won
Nikita Krylov wins by KO/TKO in R1	8%	8.50	✗ lost
Nikita Krylov significant strikes over 59.5	18%	3.75	—
Total significant strikes over 139.5	13%	5.40	—
Fight ends by KO/TKO	35%	1.94	✓ won
Nikita Krylov significant strikes over 79.5	8%	8.00	—
Nikita Krylov significant strikes over 49.5	23%	2.80	—
Robert Whittaker wins by Submission in R3	1%	81.00	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 2.5	28%	2.20	—
Fight ends by Submission in R3	2%	26.00	✗ lost
Robert Whittaker wins by KO or Sub	21%	2.85	✓ won
Robert Whittaker wins by KO/TKO in R2	7%	8.75	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	15%	3.90	✗ lost
Nikita Krylov takedowns over 1.5	27%	2.00	—
Total takedowns over 3.5	18%	2.90	—
Nikita Krylov wins by Submission in R3	2%	34.00	✗ lost
Nikita Krylov wins by finish in Round 1	13%	3.90	✗ lost
Robert Whittaker wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	13%	3.90	✗ lost
Robert Whittaker wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	9%	5.80	✓ won
Robert Whittaker wins by KO/TKO	15%	3.20	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	7%	6.75	✓ won
Nikita Krylov wins by KO/TKO in R3	3%	18.00	✗ lost
Robert Whittaker significant strikes over 79.5	7%	6.00	—
Robert Whittaker wins by KO/TKO in R1	6%	6.25	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 4.5	10%	4.00	—
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	4%	8.50	✓ won
Nikita Krylov significant strikes over 89.5	3%	11.00	—
Robert Whittaker wins by finish in Round 1	9%	3.50	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 149.5	5%	6.50	—
Nikita Krylov takedowns over 2.5	11%	2.60	—
Robert Whittaker wins by KO/TKO in R3	2%	13.00	✓ won
Total takedowns over 5.5	1%	5.50	—
Total knockdowns over 0.5	2%	1.55	—

Gable Steveson

3-0-0

Winner

Gable Steveson

KO/TKO · R1

✓ predicted

Elisha Ellison

5-2-0

▼

Model Prediction

Gable Steveson ✓ won 68%

KO 50%· Sub 2%· Dec 16%

Elisha Ellison 32%

KO 16%· Sub 7%· Dec 9%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Gable Steveson wins	68%	1.07	✓ predicted
Method Gable Steveson wins by KO/TKO	50%	1.47	✓ predicted
Finish round Finish in Round 1	39%	—	✓ predicted

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Gable Steveson wins by DEC value	16%	21.00	✗ lost
Elisha Ellison wins by Sub or Decision value	16%	19.00	✗ lost
Elisha Ellison wins by SUB	7%	41.00	✗ lost
Elisha Ellison wins by Submission in R2	2%	126.00	✗ lost
Elisha Ellison wins by Decision	9%	34.00	✗ lost
Elisha Ellison wins by Submission in R1 or R2	6%	46.00	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	25%	11.50	✗ lost
Elisha Ellison wins by DEC	9%	31.00	✗ lost
Elisha Ellison wins value	32%	8.50	✗ lost
Elisha Ellison wins by Submission in R1	4%	71.00	✗ lost
Gable Steveson wins in R3+ or by Decision value	25%	10.50	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 3	37%	6.50	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	25%	9.50	✗ lost
Elisha Ellison wins by KO or Decision value	25%	9.50	✗ lost
Elisha Ellison wins by KO or Sub value	23%	10.00	✗ lost
Elisha Ellison wins by KO/TKO	16%	12.00	✗ lost
Elisha Ellison wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	13%	14.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	10%	18.00	✗ lost
Gable Steveson wins by KO/TKO in R3	8%	23.00	✗ lost
Elisha Ellison wins by Submission in R3	1%	151.00	✗ lost
Elisha Ellison wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	8%	23.00	✗ lost
Elisha Ellison wins by KO/TKO in R2	5%	34.00	✗ lost
Elisha Ellison wins by KO/TKO in R1	8%	21.00	✗ lost
Gable Steveson wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3 value	24%	7.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	21%	7.75	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	12%	14.00	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	69%	2.25	✓ won
Elisha Ellison wins by KO/TKO in R3	3%	61.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	24%	6.00	✗ lost
Gable Steveson wins by KO/TKO in R2	16%	9.00	✗ lost
Elisha Ellison wins by finish in Round 1	12%	12.00	✗ lost
Elisha Ellison wins by finish in Round 1	12%	11.50	✗ lost
Gable Steveson wins by KO or Decision	66%	1.39	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO	66%	1.34	✓ won
Gable Steveson wins by KO/TKO	50%	1.47	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission in R3	1%	51.00	✗ lost
Gable Steveson wins	68%	1.07	✓ won
Finish before Round 3	63%	1.08	✓ won
Gable Steveson wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	42%	1.54	✓ won
Gable Steveson wins by Sub or Decision	18%	3.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	34%	1.69	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission in R2	3%	19.00	✗ lost
Gable Steveson wins by KO or Sub	51%	1.09	✓ won
Over 2.5 rounds	31%	1.57	✗ lost
Gable Steveson wins by KO/TKO in R1	26%	1.79	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission	9%	3.70	✗ lost
Gable Steveson wins by finish in Round 1	27%	1.14	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission in R1	5%	4.60	✗ lost
Gable Steveson wins by Submission in R2 or R3	1%	17.00	✗ lost
Gable Steveson wins by SUB	2%	3.90	✗ lost
Gable Steveson wins by Submission in R1 or R2	1%	4.10	✗ lost
Gable Steveson wins by Submission in R1	1%	4.80	✗ lost

Cody Garbrandt

15-7-0

Winner

Adrian Yañez

KO/TKO · R1

✓ predicted

Adrian Yañez

17-6-1

▼

Model Prediction

Cody Garbrandt 39%

KO 15%· Sub 2%· Dec 21%

Adrian Yañez ✓ won 61%

KO 36%· Sub 4%· Dec 21%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Adrian Yañez wins	61%	1.24	✓ predicted
Method Adrian Yañez wins by KO/TKO	36%	2.03	✓ predicted
Finish round Finish in Round 1	33%	—	✓ predicted

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Cody Garbrandt wins value	39%	4.10	✗ lost
Cody Garbrandt wins by KO or Decision value	37%	4.30	✗ lost
Cody Garbrandt wins by DEC	21%	7.25	✗ lost
Cody Garbrandt wins by Sub or Decision	24%	6.25	✗ lost
Cody Garbrandt wins by KO/TKO in R1	9%	17.00	✗ lost
Cody Garbrandt wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	13%	11.00	✗ lost
Cody Garbrandt wins by Decision	21%	6.50	✗ lost
Cody Garbrandt wins by KO/TKO	15%	8.75	✗ lost
Cody Garbrandt wins by KO or Sub	18%	7.25	✗ lost
Cody Garbrandt wins by KO/TKO in R2	5%	23.00	✗ lost
Cody Garbrandt wins by finish in Round 1	10%	10.50	✗ lost
Finish before Round 2	33%	3.14	✓ won
Fight goes to decision	43%	2.35	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	29%	3.40	✓ won
Fight goes to Decision	43%	2.30	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	46%	2.10	✗ lost
Cody Garbrandt wins by finish in Round 1	10%	9.25	✗ lost
Cody Garbrandt wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	7%	14.00	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 2	67%	1.33	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	54%	1.66	✓ won
Fight ends before decision	57%	1.55	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO	51%	1.70	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	18%	4.80	✗ lost
Cody Garbrandt wins by Submission in R1	1%	61.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	16%	5.30	✗ lost
Adrian Yañez wins by KO/TKO in R1	21%	3.90	✓ won
Adrian Yañez wins by finish in Round 1	23%	3.50	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission in R1	3%	23.00	✗ lost
Adrian Yañez wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	32%	2.50	✓ won
Adrian Yañez wins	61%	1.24	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission	6%	12.50	✗ lost
Adrian Yañez wins in R3+ or by Decision	30%	2.45	✗ lost
Adrian Yañez wins by KO or Sub	40%	1.88	✓ won
Adrian Yañez wins by Sub or Decision	25%	2.95	✗ lost
Adrian Yañez wins by KO or Decision	57%	1.28	✓ won
Adrian Yañez wins by KO/TKO	36%	2.03	✓ won
Adrian Yañez wins by Submission in R1 or R2	3%	23.00	✗ lost
Cody Garbrandt wins by Submission in R1 or R2	2%	34.00	✗ lost
Adrian Yañez wins by DEC	21%	3.30	✗ lost
Cody Garbrandt wins by SUB	2%	29.00	✗ lost
Adrian Yañez wins by Submission in R1	2%	34.00	✗ lost
Adrian Yañez wins by KO/TKO in R2	11%	6.25	✗ lost
Adrian Yañez wins by SUB	4%	19.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	2%	34.00	✗ lost
Adrian Yañez wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	15%	3.90	✗ lost
Cody Garbrandt wins by Submission in R2	1%	81.00	✗ lost
Adrian Yañez wins by Submission in R2	1%	51.00	✗ lost
Cody Garbrandt wins by KO/TKO in R3	2%	29.00	✗ lost
Cody Garbrandt wins by Submission in R2 or R3	1%	51.00	✗ lost
Adrian Yañez wins by finish in Round 1	23%	2.30	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	7%	6.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	6%	7.25	✗ lost
Adrian Yañez wins by KO/TKO in R3	4%	8.75	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	1%	46.00	✗ lost

Kai Kamaka III

18-7-1

Winner

Luke Riley

KO/TKO · R1

✓ predicted

Luke Riley

13-0-0

▼

Model Prediction

Kai Kamaka III 32%

KO 9%· Sub 0%· Dec 22%

Luke Riley ✓ won 68%

KO 12%· Sub 0%· Dec 56%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Luke Riley wins	68%	1.30	✓ predicted
Method Luke Riley wins by Decision value	56%	2.80	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	78%	1.95	missed

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Luke Riley wins by DEC value	56%	2.80	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	78%	1.95	✗ lost
Kai Kamaka III wins by DEC	22%	5.80	✗ lost
Kai Kamaka III wins	32%	3.20	✗ lost
Luke Riley wins	68%	1.30	✓ won
Kai Kamaka III wins by KO/TKO	9%	7.75	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	22%	1.77	✓ won
Luke Riley wins by KO/TKO	12%	2.40	✓ won

Wang Cong

9-1-0

Winner

Wang Cong

Decision (U) · R3

✓ predicted

Tracy Cortez

12-3-0

▼

Model Prediction

Wang Cong ✓ won 52%

KO 10%· Sub 4%· Dec 37%

Tracy Cortez 48%

KO 9%· Sub 4%· Dec 35%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Tracy Cortez wins value	48%	16.00	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	72%	—	✓ predicted

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Tracy Cortez wins value	48%	16.00	✗ lost

Cesar Almeida

7-2-0

Winner

Damian Pinas

KO/TKO · R1

✓ predicted

Damian Pinas

9-1-0

▼

Model Prediction

Cesar Almeida 11%

KO 4%· Sub 1%· Dec 6%

Damian Pinas ✓ won 89%

KO 44%· Sub 6%· Dec 39%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Damian Pinas wins value	89%	1.30	✓ predicted
Method Damian Pinas wins by KO/TKO	44%	2.07	✓ predicted
Finish round Finish in Round 1	28%	—	✓ predicted

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Damian Pinas wins by DEC value	39%	6.50	✗ lost
Damian Pinas wins by Decision value	39%	5.00	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	45%	3.70	✗ lost
Damian Pinas wins by Sub or Decision value	45%	3.50	✗ lost
Damian Pinas wins by KO or Decision value	83%	1.48	✓ won
Damian Pinas wins value	89%	1.30	✓ won
Under 2.5 rounds	50%	2.10	✓ won
Damian Pinas wins by KO/TKO	44%	2.07	✓ won
Over 2.5 rounds	50%	1.66	✗ lost
Damian Pinas wins by KO or Sub	50%	1.65	✓ won
Damian Pinas wins by finish in Round 1	25%	3.00	✓ won
Damian Pinas wins by finish in Round 3	9%	8.50	✗ lost
Damian Pinas wins by finish in Round 2	16%	4.50	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	55%	1.25	✓ won
Damian Pinas wins by SUB	6%	10.50	✗ lost
Cesar Almeida wins by Decision	6%	9.50	✗ lost
Cesar Almeida wins by Sub or Decision	7%	8.50	✗ lost
Cesar Almeida wins by DEC	6%	8.00	✗ lost
Cesar Almeida wins	11%	3.54	✗ lost
Cesar Almeida wins by KO or Decision	10%	3.70	✗ lost
Cesar Almeida wins by KO or Sub	5%	4.50	✗ lost
Cesar Almeida wins by finish in Round 1	3%	7.50	✗ lost
Cesar Almeida wins by KO/TKO	4%	4.25	✗ lost
Cesar Almeida wins by finish in Round 2	2%	9.50	✗ lost
Cesar Almeida wins by SUB	1%	19.00	✗ lost
Cesar Almeida wins by finish in Round 3	1%	13.00	✗ lost

Farid Basharat

15-0-0

Winner

Farid Basharat

Decision (U) · R3

✓ predicted

John Garza

6-1-0

▼

Model Prediction

Farid Basharat ✓ won 89%

KO 9%· Sub 66%· Dec 13%

John Garza 11%

KO 4%· Sub 4%· Dec 4%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Farid Basharat wins	89%	1.13	✓ predicted
Method Farid Basharat wins by Submission value	66%	2.70	missed
Finish round Finish in Round 2	36%	—	missed

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Farid Basharat wins by finish in Round 2 value	33%	6.00	✗ lost
Farid Basharat wins by SUB value	66%	2.70	✗ lost
Farid Basharat wins by KO or Sub value	76%	2.15	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	74%	2.10	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	83%	1.74	✗ lost
Farid Basharat wins by finish in Round 3	15%	8.50	✗ lost
Farid Basharat wins by finish in Round 1	27%	4.50	✗ lost
John Garza wins by SUB	4%	31.00	✗ lost
Farid Basharat wins	89%	1.13	✓ won
Farid Basharat wins by Sub or Decision	80%	1.23	✓ won
Farid Basharat wins by KO/TKO	9%	9.25	✗ lost
John Garza wins by Sub or Decision	7%	10.00	✗ lost
John Garza wins	11%	6.05	✗ lost
John Garza wins by KO or Sub	7%	8.75	✗ lost
John Garza wins by finish in Round 3	1%	34.00	✗ lost
John Garza wins by finish in Round 2	3%	15.00	✗ lost
John Garza wins by KO or Decision	7%	6.25	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	26%	1.66	✓ won
Farid Basharat wins by KO or Decision	22%	1.84	✓ won
John Garza wins by KO/TKO	4%	10.50	✗ lost
John Garza wins by Decision	4%	10.00	✗ lost
John Garza wins by DEC	4%	9.75	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	17%	2.01	✓ won
John Garza wins by finish in Round 1	3%	12.00	✗ lost
Farid Basharat wins by DEC	13%	2.25	✓ won

Zach Reese

10-3-0

Winner

Ryan Gandra

KO/TKO · R1

Ryan Gandra

9-1-0

▼

Model Prediction dead even — no pick

Zach Reese 50%

KO 16%· Sub 15%· Dec 18%

Ryan Gandra ✓ won 50%

KO 18%· Sub 3%· Dec 29%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Ryan Gandra wins	50%	1.74	✓ predicted
Method Ryan Gandra wins by Decision value	29%	8.50	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	47%	4.25	missed

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Ryan Gandra wins by DEC value	29%	8.50	✗ lost
Ryan Gandra wins by Decision value	29%	8.00	✗ lost
Ryan Gandra wins by Sub or Decision value	33%	6.25	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	47%	4.25	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	47%	4.20	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 3	52%	3.06	✗ lost
Zach Reese wins in R3+ or by Decision	26%	5.50	✗ lost
Zach Reese wins by DEC	18%	7.75	✗ lost
Zach Reese wins by Sub or Decision	33%	3.45	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	50%	2.20	✗ lost
Zach Reese wins by KO or Decision	34%	3.10	✗ lost
Zach Reese wins	50%	2.10	✗ lost
Ryan Gandra wins	50%	1.74	✓ won
Ryan Gandra wins by KO or Decision	47%	1.84	✓ won
Zach Reese wins by Submission in R1 or R2	14%	6.25	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	11%	7.75	✗ lost
Zach Reese wins by Submission in R1	9%	9.50	✗ lost
Zach Reese wins by SUB	15%	5.60	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	19%	4.50	✗ lost
Zach Reese wins by finish in Round 1	19%	4.50	✗ lost
Zach Reese wins by KO or Sub	32%	2.65	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	50%	1.61	✓ won
Zach Reese wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	15%	5.40	✗ lost
Zach Reese wins by KO/TKO in R1	10%	8.00	✗ lost
Zach Reese wins by KO/TKO	16%	4.70	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	6%	12.50	✗ lost
Zach Reese wins by Submission in R2	5%	15.00	✗ lost
Zach Reese wins by finish in Round 2	10%	7.00	✗ lost
Finish before Round 2	31%	2.09	✓ won
Zach Reese wins by KO/TKO in R2	5%	12.50	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	53%	1.20	✓ won
Ryan Gandra wins by SUB	3%	18.00	✗ lost
Zach Reese wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	7%	9.25	✗ lost
Ryan Gandra wins by Submission in R1 or R2	3%	19.00	✗ lost
Ryan Gandra wins by Submission in R1	2%	29.00	✗ lost
Ryan Gandra wins by Submission in R2 or R3	1%	41.00	✗ lost
Zach Reese wins by finish in Round 1	19%	3.10	✗ lost
Ryan Gandra wins by Submission in R2	1%	51.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	20%	2.65	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO	34%	1.55	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	11%	4.60	✗ lost
Ryan Gandra wins by KO or Sub	21%	2.05	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	5%	8.50	✗ lost
Zach Reese wins by Submission in R3	1%	29.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	2%	23.00	✗ lost
Ryan Gandra wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	16%	2.45	✓ won
Ryan Gandra wins by KO/TKO in R1	11%	3.75	✓ won
Ryan Gandra wins by KO/TKO	18%	2.20	✓ won
Ryan Gandra wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	7%	5.10	✗ lost
Ryan Gandra wins by KO/TKO in R2	6%	6.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	3%	11.00	✗ lost
Zach Reese wins by KO/TKO in R3	2%	23.00	✗ lost
Ryan Gandra wins by KO/TKO in R3	2%	18.00	✗ lost
Ryan Gandra wins by finish in Round 1	13%	2.25	✓ won

Cody Durden

18-10-1

Winner

Alessandro Costa

SUB · R2

✗ wrong

Alessandro Costa

15-5-0

▼

Model Prediction

Cody Durden 53%

KO 16%· Sub 8%· Dec 29%

Alessandro Costa ✓ won 47%

KO 20%· Sub 9%· Dec 18%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Cody Durden wins value	53%	2.90	missed
Method Cody Durden wins by Decision value	29%	5.00	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	47%	2.33	missed

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Cody Durden wins by KO/TKO in R2	7%	23.00	✗ lost
Cody Durden wins value	53%	2.90	✗ lost
Cody Durden wins by KO or Decision value	45%	3.40	✗ lost
Cody Durden wins by DEC value	29%	5.00	✗ lost
Cody Durden wins by Sub or Decision value	37%	3.80	✗ lost
Cody Durden wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	13%	10.50	✗ lost
Cody Durden wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	9%	15.00	✗ lost
Cody Durden wins by KO/TKO	16%	8.75	✗ lost
Cody Durden wins by KO or Sub	24%	5.75	✗ lost
Cody Durden wins in R3+ or by Decision	30%	4.30	✗ lost
Cody Durden wins by Submission in R2	4%	34.00	✗ lost
Cody Durden wins by finish in Round 2	10%	11.00	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	47%	2.33	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	16%	7.00	✗ lost
Cody Durden wins by KO/TKO in R1	6%	17.00	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	53%	2.00	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	47%	2.25	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 2	79%	1.30	✓ won
Cody Durden wins by Submission in R1 or R2	7%	15.00	✗ lost
Cody Durden wins by SUB	8%	12.50	✗ lost
Cody Durden wins by Submission in R2 or R3	5%	21.00	✗ lost
Cody Durden wins by finish in Round 1	10%	9.50	✗ lost
Finish before Round 3	45%	1.97	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO	36%	2.45	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	53%	1.56	✓ won
Cody Durden wins by KO/TKO in R3	2%	34.00	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	47%	1.72	✓ won
Alessandro Costa wins by KO/TKO in R2	9%	9.00	✗ lost
Alessandro Costa wins in R3+ or by Decision	27%	2.90	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	7%	10.50	✓ won
Alessandro Costa wins by finish in Round 2	13%	6.00	✓ won
Cody Durden wins by Submission in R1	3%	23.00	✗ lost
Alessandro Costa wins by DEC	18%	4.10	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	15%	5.00	✗ lost
Alessandro Costa wins by KO or Decision	39%	1.88	✗ lost
Alessandro Costa wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	12%	5.90	✗ lost
Alessandro Costa wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	17%	4.10	✗ lost
Cody Durden wins by finish in Round 1	10%	7.00	✗ lost
Alessandro Costa wins	47%	1.42	✓ won
Alessandro Costa wins by KO/TKO	20%	3.25	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	17%	3.80	✓ won
Alessandro Costa wins by Sub or Decision	27%	2.35	✓ won
Cody Durden wins by Submission in R3	1%	51.00	✗ lost
Alessandro Costa wins by KO or Sub	29%	2.03	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	5%	10.00	✗ lost
Alessandro Costa wins by KO/TKO in R1	8%	6.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	8%	6.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	7%	7.50	✗ lost
Alessandro Costa wins by Submission in R2	4%	13.00	✓ won
Alessandro Costa wins by finish in Round 1	12%	4.00	✗ lost
Alessandro Costa wins by Submission in R1 or R2	7%	6.00	✓ won
Alessandro Costa wins by SUB	9%	5.00	✓ won
Alessandro Costa wins by KO/TKO in R3	3%	12.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	3%	14.00	✗ lost
Alessandro Costa wins by Submission in R1	4%	9.50	✗ lost
Alessandro Costa wins by finish in Round 1	12%	2.55	✗ lost
Alessandro Costa wins by Submission in R3	1%	19.00	✗ lost