Updated 2026-08-29 23:10 AEST
5
Bouts
0
Events
New here? How to read these predictions
Win probability
Our model's estimate that a fighter wins — e.g. 72% means we'd expect them to win roughly 7 of 10 times.
Confidence interval (CI)
The range the true probability likely falls in. Wider = less certain. A pick'em fight has a wide band; a clear favourite a narrow one.
Edge
How much higher our probability is than the bookmaker's implied odds. Positive edge = we think it's underpriced.
EV (expected value)
Average return if you placed the bet many times. +15% EV means about 15c profit per $1 staked, on average.
Risk tiers
Conservative leans to safe favourites, Balanced blends, Aggressive chases bigger-odds longshots. Pick what suits you.
Edge badges
Strong / Solid / Slight edge rank how much value the model sees — and how big a stake it suggests. They're not a promise the bet wins.

Tap any fight row to open the full model breakdown. New to the model itself? How it works · FAQ.

PR
Rivera
Main Event
57%
Model Leans Darby
2026-09-01
AD
Darby
Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 4
2026
01
SEP
⚡ Next Event

Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 4

Meta APEX, Las Vegas, USA
5
Bouts
PR
Patrick Rivera
nan
43% | 57%
Welterweight 5 rds
⏱ Wed 9:00 AM AEST
AD
Adam Darby
nan
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Adam Darby
57.3 %
050100
CI · 27 – 87 · σ 0.087 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Adam Darby is favoured at 57% — fight-history features sparse
  • Model uncertainty: ±9pp on the win probability
Method Breakdown
Rivera Darby
KO/TKO 13.5
20.0
Submission 10.8
16.5
Decision 18.5
20.7
Finish Distribution · By Round
27
R1
14
R2
10
R3
7
R4
3
R5
39
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Rivera Darby
Str/min 0.0
0.0
Sig Acc 0%
0%
Str Def 0%
0%
TD/min 0.00
0.00
Finish 0%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
22
26
RiveraDarby
Combined 52 18–188
Takedowns
0.5
0.2
RiveraDarby
Combined 2.0 0.0–5.4
Fight length
Expected 2.9 of 5 rounds 39% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Model lean favours Darby

    Adam Darby is favoured at 57% — fight-history features sparse

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
BH
Brandon Holmes
Orthodox
42% | 58%
Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Wed 9:00 AM AEST
MR
Modestino Rodrigues
nan
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Modestino Rodrigues
58.5 %
050100
CI · 28 – 88 · σ 0.071 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Modestino Rodrigues is favoured at 58% — fight-history features sparse
  • Model uncertainty: ±7pp on the win probability
Method Breakdown
Holmes Rodrigues
KO/TKO 13.1
18.2
Submission 10.5
17.9
Decision 17.9
22.4
Finish Distribution · By Round
30
R1
18
R2
12
R3
40
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Holmes Rodrigues
Str/min 0.0
0.0
Sig Acc 0%
0%
Str Def 0%
0%
TD/min 0.00
0.00
Finish 0%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
21
25
HolmesRodrigues
Combined 50 14–147
Takedowns
0.5
0.2
HolmesRodrigues
Combined 2.0 0.0–4.8
Fight length
Expected 1.9 of 3 rounds 40% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Model lean favours Rodrigues

    Modestino Rodrigues is favoured at 58% — fight-history features sparse

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
LM
Liam McCracken
nan
49% | 51%
Lightweight 3 rds
⏱ Wed 9:00 AM AEST
SS
Silvestre Sanchez
nan
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Silvestre Sanchez
51.2 %
050100
CI · 21 – 81 · σ 0.086 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Model uncertainty: ±9pp on the win probability
Method Breakdown
McCracken Sanchez
KO/TKO 14.8
13.0
Submission 11.9
17.0
Decision 22.1
21.3
Finish Distribution · By Round
29
R1
17
R2
11
R3
43
DEC
Key Stats career avg
McCracken Sanchez
Str/min 0.0
0.0
Sig Acc 0%
0%
Str Def 0%
0%
TD/min 0.00
0.00
Finish 0%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
24
25
McCrackenSanchez
Combined 52 15–138
Takedowns
0.5
0.1
McCrackenSanchez
Combined 2.1 0.0–5.0
Fight length
Expected 2.0 of 3 rounds 43% chance it goes the distance
Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
GL
Gabriel Lorenco
nan
56% | 44%
Heavyweight 3 rds
CC
Charlie Cleveland
nan
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Gabriel Lorenco
55.8 %
050100
CI · 26 – 86 · σ 0.074 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Gabriel Lorenco is favoured at 56% — fight-history features sparse
  • Model uncertainty: ±7pp on the win probability
Method Breakdown
Lorenco Cleveland
KO/TKO 25.9
17.1
Submission 14.2
9.9
Decision 15.7
17.1
Finish Distribution · By Round
40
R1
17
R2
9
R3
33
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Lorenco Cleveland
Str/min 0.0
0.0
Sig Acc 0%
0%
Str Def 0%
0%
TD/min 0.00
0.00
Finish 0%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
24
23
LorencoCleveland
Combined 44 13–145
Takedowns
0.3
0.0
LorencoCleveland
Combined 1.2 0.0–4.5
Fight length
Expected 1.7 of 3 rounds 33% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Model lean favours Lorenco

    Gabriel Lorenco is favoured at 56% — fight-history features sparse

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
AL
Adam Livingston
Orthodox
58% | 42%
Lightweight 3 rds
⏱ Wed 9:00 AM AEST
Hunter Smith
Hunter Smith
nan
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Adam Livingston
57.6 %
050100
CI · 28 – 88 · σ 0.067 · High
Why this pick
  • Adam Livingston is favoured at 58% — fight-history features sparse
  • Model uncertainty: ±7pp on the win probability
Method Breakdown
Livingston Smith
KO/TKO 18.2
9.6
Submission 13.8
14.6
Decision 25.7
18.2
Finish Distribution · By Round
29
R1
16
R2
11
R3
44
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Livingston Smith
Str/min 0.0
0.0
Sig Acc 0%
0%
Str Def 0%
0%
TD/min 0.00
0.00
Finish 0%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
24
23
LivingstonSmith
Combined 52 15–138
Takedowns
0.5
0.1
LivingstonSmith
Combined 2.1 0.0–5.0
Fight length
Expected 2.0 of 3 rounds 44% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Model lean favours Livingston

    Adam Livingston is favoured at 58% — fight-history features sparse

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.