Moirai

Win probability

Our model's estimate that a fighter wins — e.g. 72% means we'd expect them to win roughly 7 of 10 times.

Confidence interval (CI)

The range the true probability likely falls in. Wider = less certain. A pick'em fight has a wide band; a clear favourite a narrow one.

Edge

How much higher our probability is than the bookmaker's implied odds. Positive edge = we think it's underpriced.

EV (expected value)

Average return if you placed the bet many times. +15% EV means about 15c profit per $1 staked, on average.

Risk tiers

Conservative leans to safe favourites, Balanced blends, Aggressive chases bigger-odds longshots. Pick what suits you.

Edge badges

Strong / Solid / Slight edge rank how much value the model sees — and how big a stake it suggests. They're not a promise the bet wins.

Tap any fight row to open the full model breakdown. New to the model itself? How it works · FAQ.