Updated 2026-10-17 19:21 AEST
13
Bouts
1
Events
New here? How to read these predictions
Win probability
Our model's estimate that a fighter wins — e.g. 72% means we'd expect them to win roughly 7 of 10 times.
Confidence interval (CI)
The range the true probability likely falls in. Wider = less certain. A pick'em fight has a wide band; a clear favourite a narrow one.
Edge
How much higher our probability is than the bookmaker's implied odds. Positive edge = we think it's underpriced.
EV (expected value)
Average return if you placed the bet many times. +15% EV means about 15c profit per $1 staked, on average.
Risk tiers
Conservative leans to safe favourites, Balanced blends, Aggressive chases bigger-odds longshots. Pick what suits you.
Edge badges
Strong / Solid / Slight edge rank how much value the model sees — and how big a stake it suggests. They're not a promise the bet wins.

Tap any fight row to open the full model breakdown. New to the model itself? How it works · FAQ.

Sean Brady
Brady
Main Event
55%
Model Leans Bonfim
2026-11-08
Gabriel Bonfim
Bonfim
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady
2026
08
NOV
⚡ Next Event

UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady

Meta APEX, Las Vegas, USA
13
Bouts
Sean Brady
Sean Brady
United States 19-2-0 Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 1 win
45% | 55%
Welterweight 5 rds
⏱ Sun 8 Nov · 11:00 AM AEST
Gabriel Bonfim
Gabriel Bonfim
Brazil 19-1-0 Striker Orthodox 5-fight win streak
Model Favourite
Gabriel Bonfim
54.9 %
Confidence · Medium · sub-models broadly agree
Why this pick
  • Gabriel Bonfim rides a 4-fight longer win streak
  • Gabriel Bonfim lands 0.6 more sig strikes per minute
  • Gabriel Bonfim finishes 62% of fights, Sean Brady 55%
  • the case against Sean Brady eats 0.8 fewer strikes per minute
  • Gabriel Bonfim rides a 5-fight win streak (Sean Brady: 1)
Method Breakdown
Brady Bonfim
KO/TKO 8.8
23.2
Submission 10.3
9.4
Decision 26.0
22.3
Finish Distribution · By Round
15
R1
15
R2
10
R3
7
R4
5
R5
48
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Brady Bonfim
Str/min 4.1
4.7
Sig Acc 53%
48%
Str Def 60%
64%
TD/min 0.24
0.17
Finish 55%
62%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
62
47
BradyBonfim
Combined 107 19–221
Takedowns
1.2
0.1
BradyBonfim
Combined 1.9 0.0–5.5
Fight length
Expected 3.4 of 5 rounds 48% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Bonfim

    Gabriel Bonfim rides a 4-fight longer win streak

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Brady

    Sean Brady eats 0.8 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 Striking volume favours Bonfim

    Gabriel Bonfim lands 0.6 more sig strikes per minute

  • 04 Control time favours Brady

    Sean Brady spends 47% of fight time in control, Gabriel Bonfim 15%

  • 05 Finish rate favours Bonfim

    Gabriel Bonfim finishes 62% of fights, Sean Brady 55%

  • 06 Takedown volume favours Brady

    Sean Brady hits 0.07 more takedowns per minute

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
Sportsbet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Tatiana Suarez
Tatiana Suarez
United States 13-1-0 MMA Southpaw 2-fight win streak
61% | 39%
Women's Strawweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 8 Nov · 11:00 AM AEST
Virna Jandiroba
Virna Jandiroba
Brazil 23-4-0 Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 1 win
Model Favourite
Tatiana Suarez
61.0 %
Confidence · High · sub-models agree closely
Why this pick
  • Tatiana Suarez eats 1.2 fewer strikes per minute
  • Tatiana Suarez finishes 60% of fights, Virna Jandiroba 31%
  • Tatiana Suarez rides a 1-fight longer win streak
  • Virna Jandiroba has never been finished in 13 fights
Method Breakdown
Suarez Jandiroba
KO/TKO 6.2
3.7
Submission 8.8
13.0
Decision 46.0
22.3
Finish Distribution · By Round
11
R1
10
R2
11
R3
68
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Suarez Jandiroba
Str/min 2.9
2.3
Sig Acc 60%
41%
Str Def 44%
56%
TD/min 0.30
0.21
Finish 60%
31%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
37
27
SuarezJandiroba
Combined 67 19–128
Takedowns
1.8
0.9
SuarezJandiroba
Combined 2.5 0.0–6.0
Fight length
Expected 2.5 of 3 rounds 68% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Suarez

    Tatiana Suarez eats 1.2 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Finish rate favours Suarez

    Tatiana Suarez finishes 60% of fights, Virna Jandiroba 31%

  • 03 Win streak favours Suarez

    Tatiana Suarez rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 04 Striking volume favours Suarez

    Tatiana Suarez lands 0.6 more sig strikes per minute

  • 05 Submission rate favours Suarez

    Tatiana Suarez wins by submission in 50% of fights, Virna Jandiroba in 23%

  • 06 Striking accuracy favours Suarez

    Tatiana Suarez lands 60% of significant strikes thrown, Virna Jandiroba 41%

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
Sportsbet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Davey Grant
Davey Grant
England 17-8-0 MMA Orthodox 1 win
22% | 78%
Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 8 Nov · 8:00 AM AEST
Elijah Smith
Elijah Smith
United States 10-1-0 Freestyle Orthodox 3-fight win streak
Model Favourite
Elijah Smith
77.6 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Elijah Smith eats 2.3 fewer strikes per minute
  • Elijah Smith rides a 2-fight longer win streak
  • Elijah Smith wins by submission in 31% of fights, Davey Grant in 6%
  • the case against Davey Grant lands 1.9 more sig strikes per minute
  • Elijah Smith rides a 3-fight win streak (Davey Grant: 1)
Method Breakdown
Grant Smith
KO/TKO 8.1
10.9
Submission 6.9
36.1
Decision 7.3
30.6
Finish Distribution · By Round
30
R1
21
R2
10
R3
38
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Grant Smith
Str/min 5.6
3.7
Sig Acc 45%
53%
Str Def 55%
52%
TD/min 0.06
0.12
Finish 50%
64%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
32
41
GrantSmith
Combined 76 15–160
Takedowns
0.2
0.9
GrantSmith
Combined 1.6 0.0–4.6
Fight length
Expected 1.9 of 3 rounds 38% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Smith

    Elijah Smith eats 2.3 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Grant

    Davey Grant lands 1.9 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Win streak favours Smith

    Elijah Smith rides a 2-fight longer win streak

  • 04 Submission rate favours Smith

    Elijah Smith wins by submission in 31% of fights, Davey Grant in 6%

  • 05 Finish rate favours Smith

    Elijah Smith finishes 64% of fights, Davey Grant 50%

  • 06 Takedown defence favours Grant

    Davey Grant stops 65% of takedown attempts, Elijah Smith 46%

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
Sportsbet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Wellington Turman
Wellington Turman
Brazil 18-8-0 Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 3-fight loss streak
23% | 77%
Welterweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 8 Nov · 8:00 AM AEST
Seokhyeon Ko
Seokhyeon Ko
South Korea 13-2-0 Judo Southpaw 1 loss
Model Favourite
Seokhyeon Ko
76.6 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Seokhyeon Ko eats 2.7 fewer strikes per minute
  • Seokhyeon Ko hits 0.10 more takedowns per minute
  • Seokhyeon Ko avoids 65% of strikes thrown at them, Wellington Turman 45%
  • the case against Wellington Turman finishes 44% of fights, Seokhyeon Ko 6%
  • layoff Turman hasn't fought since Dec 2023 — ring rust is hard to price, so the model widens its uncertainty here
  • Seokhyeon Ko has never been finished in 3 fights
Method Breakdown
Turman Ko
KO/TKO 4.3
7.8
Submission 4.2
7.6
Decision 14.9
61.1
Finish Distribution · By Round
12
R1
8
R2
4
R3
76
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Turman Ko
Str/min 3.2
3.0
Sig Acc 51%
49%
Str Def 45%
65%
TD/min 0.10
0.21
Finish 44%
6%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
23
33
TurmanKo
Combined 69 19–115
Takedowns
0.5
1.7
TurmanKo
Combined 2.4 0.0–5.2
Fight length
Expected 2.6 of 3 rounds 76% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Ko

    Seokhyeon Ko eats 2.7 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Finish rate favours Turman

    Wellington Turman finishes 44% of fights, Seokhyeon Ko 6%

  • 03 KO rate favours Turman

    Wellington Turman wins by knockout in 22% of fights, Seokhyeon Ko in 4%

  • 04 Takedown volume favours Ko

    Seokhyeon Ko hits 0.10 more takedowns per minute

  • 05 Striking defence favours Ko

    Seokhyeon Ko avoids 65% of strikes thrown at them, Wellington Turman 45%

  • 06 Loss streak favours Ko

    Wellington Turman is on a losing run 2 fight(s) longer than Seokhyeon Ko

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
Sportsbet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Billy Elekana
Billy Elekana
United States 10-2-0 MMA Southpaw 3-fight win streak
52% | 48%
Light Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 8 Nov · 11:00 AM AEST
LF
Lucas Fernando
Brazil 14-3-0 Striker 1 win
Model Favourite
Billy Elekana
51.9 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Lucas Fernando has 1 UFC fight — too little to compare fight stats, so this pick leans on age, size and pre-UFC record
Method Breakdown
Elekana Fernando
KO/TKO 23.8
21.4
Submission 15.2
6.2
Decision 12.8
20.5
Finish Distribution · By Round
36
R1
20
R2
11
R3
33
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Elekana Fernando
Str/min 2.7
5.5
Sig Acc 56%
57%
Str Def 46%
77%
TD/min 0.06
0.02
Finish 75%
91%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
22
24
ElekanaFernando
Combined 56 14–122
Takedowns
0.1
0.1
ElekanaFernando
Combined 1.5 0.0–4.1
Fight length
Expected 1.8 of 3 rounds 33% chance it goes the distance
Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
Sportsbet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Wes Schultz
Wes Schultz
United States 9-3-0 MMA Orthodox 1 loss
17% | 83%
Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 8 Nov · 11:00 AM AEST
Mantas Kondratavicius
Mantas Kondratavicius
9-1-0 MMA Orthodox 1 win
Model Favourite
Mantas Kondratavicius
83.3 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Mantas Kondratavicius is favoured at 83% — fight-history features sparse
  • Mantas Kondratavicius has 1 UFC fight — too little to compare fight stats, so this pick leans on age, size and pre-UFC record
Method Breakdown
Schultz Kondratavicius
KO/TKO 2.3
24.7
Submission 8.0
8.6
Decision 6.3
50.0
Finish Distribution · By Round
24
R1
13
R2
6
R3
56
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Schultz Kondratavicius
Str/min 2.1
4.6
Sig Acc 53%
64%
Str Def 44%
56%
TD/min 0.05
0.12
Finish 100%
14%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
19
28
SchultzKondratavicius
Combined 49 14–112
Takedowns
0.4
0.7
SchultzKondratavicius
Combined 1.9 0.0–4.6
Fight length
Expected 2.2 of 3 rounds 56% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Model lean favours Kondratavicius

    Mantas Kondratavicius is favoured at 83% — fight-history features sparse

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
Sportsbet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
GL
Gabriel Lorenco
Brazil 1-0-0
55% | 45%
Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 8 Nov · 8:00 AM AEST
Alvin Hines
Alvin Hines
United States 7-1-0 MMA Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
Model Favourite
Gabriel Lorenco
55.2 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Gabriel Lorenco is favoured at 55% — fight-history features sparse
  • Gabriel Lorenco has no UFC fights — too little to compare fight stats, so this pick leans on age, size and pre-UFC record
Method Breakdown
Lorenco Hines
KO/TKO 27.8
25.9
Submission 8.9
6.1
Decision 18.5
12.8
Finish Distribution · By Round
37
R1
21
R2
10
R3
31
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Lorenco Hines
Str/min 0.0
5.6
Sig Acc 0%
33%
Str Def 0%
39%
TD/min 0.00
0.06
Finish 0%
50%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
26
35
LorencoHines
Combined 70 15–154
Takedowns
0.0
0.2
LorencoHines
Combined 0.4 0.0–4.2
Fight length
Expected 1.7 of 3 rounds 31% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Model lean favours Lorenco

    Gabriel Lorenco is favoured at 55% — fight-history features sparse

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
Sportsbet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Karine Silva
Karine Silva
Brazil 19-7-0 Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
81% | 19%
Women's Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 8 Nov · 8:00 AM AEST
Gabriella Fernandes
Gabriella Fernandes
Brazil 11-4-0 Striker Southpaw 1 loss
Model Favourite
Karine Silva
81.3 %
Confidence · Medium · limited UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Karine Silva eats 2.7 fewer strikes per minute
  • Karine Silva wins by submission in 38% of fights, Gabriella Fernandes in 17%
  • Karine Silva hits 0.11 more takedowns per minute
  • the case against Gabriella Fernandes lands 1.2 more sig strikes per minute
  • Karine Silva has never been finished in 8 fights
Method Breakdown
Silva Fernandes
KO/TKO 30.4
3.8
Submission 13.9
3.3
Decision 37.0
11.6
Finish Distribution · By Round
28
R1
16
R2
8
R3
49
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Silva Fernandes
Str/min 2.3
3.5
Sig Acc 40%
47%
Str Def 54%
53%
TD/min 0.14
0.03
Finish 38%
33%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
39
37
SilvaFernandes
Combined 75 20–131
Takedowns
1.1
0.1
SilvaFernandes
Combined 1.9 0.0–4.5
Fight length
Expected 2.0 of 3 rounds 49% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Silva

    Karine Silva eats 2.7 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Fernandes

    Gabriella Fernandes lands 1.2 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Takedown defence favours Fernandes

    Gabriella Fernandes stops 69% of takedown attempts, Karine Silva 29%

  • 04 Submission rate favours Silva

    Karine Silva wins by submission in 38% of fights, Gabriella Fernandes in 17%

  • 05 KO rate favours Fernandes

    Gabriella Fernandes wins by knockout in 17% of fights, Karine Silva in 0%

  • 06 Takedown volume favours Silva

    Karine Silva hits 0.11 more takedowns per minute

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
Sportsbet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Jose Delano
Jose Delano
Brazil 17-3-0 Striker Orthodox 1 win
12% | 88%
Featherweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 8 Nov · 8:00 AM AEST
MM
Murtazali Magomedov
Kyrgyzstan 1-0-0 Orthodox 1 win
Model Favourite
Murtazali Magomedov
88.2 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Murtazali Magomedov is favoured at 88% — fight-history features sparse
  • Jose Delano has 1 UFC fight — too little to compare fight stats, so this pick leans on age, size and pre-UFC record
Method Breakdown
Delano Magomedov
KO/TKO 2.9
20.9
Submission 0.4
29.8
Decision 8.5
37.4
Finish Distribution · By Round
28
R1
16
R2
9
R3
46
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Delano Magomedov
Str/min 6.3
3.9
Sig Acc 58%
71%
Str Def 66%
77%
TD/min 0.03
0.78
Finish 11%
100%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
32
41
DelanoMagomedov
Combined 67 15–146
Takedowns
0.0
1.7
DelanoMagomedov
Combined 1.7 0.0–5.1
Fight length
Expected 2.0 of 3 rounds 46% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Model lean favours Magomedov

    Murtazali Magomedov is favoured at 88% — fight-history features sparse

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
Sportsbet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Keiichiro Nakamura
Keiichiro Nakamura
Japan 8-1-0 Striker Southpaw 1 win
64% | 36%
Featherweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 8 Nov · 8:00 AM AEST
Ollie Schmid
Ollie Schmid
United States 4-3-0 Striker 1 loss
Model Favourite
Keiichiro Nakamura
64.2 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Keiichiro Nakamura is favoured at 64% — fight-history features sparse
  • Keiichiro Nakamura has 1 UFC fight — too little to compare fight stats, so this pick leans on age, size and pre-UFC record
Method Breakdown
Nakamura Schmid
KO/TKO 31.8
9.2
Submission 5.8
7.8
Decision 26.6
18.8
Finish Distribution · By Round
29
R1
17
R2
8
R3
45
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Nakamura Schmid
Str/min 3.4
3.4
Sig Acc 39%
33%
Str Def 61%
45%
TD/min 0.03
0.03
Finish 87%
87%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
32
32
NakamuraSchmid
Combined 73 13–143
Takedowns
0.0
0.0
NakamuraSchmid
Combined 1.1 0.0–4.5
Fight length
Expected 2.0 of 3 rounds 45% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Model lean favours Nakamura

    Keiichiro Nakamura is favoured at 64% — fight-history features sparse

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
Sportsbet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Lucas Brennan
Lucas Brennan
United States 11-3-0 Grappler Southpaw 1 loss
27% | 73%
Featherweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 8 Nov · 11:00 AM AEST
Austin Bashi
Austin Bashi
United States 14-1-0 Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 1 loss
Model Favourite
Austin Bashi
73.4 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Austin Bashi is favoured at 73% — fight-history features sparse
  • Lucas Brennan has 1 UFC fight — too little to compare fight stats, so this pick leans on age, size and pre-UFC record
Method Breakdown
Brennan Bashi
KO/TKO 4.1
9.0
Submission 7.1
30.1
Decision 15.4
34.2
Finish Distribution · By Round
21
R1
14
R2
15
R3
50
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Brennan Bashi
Str/min 0.6
1.9
Sig Acc 25%
40%
Str Def 52%
54%
TD/min 0.00
0.20
Finish 0%
35%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
27
25
BrennanBashi
Combined 56 17–117
Takedowns
0.1
1.8
BrennanBashi
Combined 2.6 0.0–5.6
Fight length
Expected 2.2 of 3 rounds 50% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Model lean favours Bashi

    Austin Bashi is favoured at 73% — fight-history features sparse

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
Sportsbet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Priscila Cachoeira
Priscila Cachoeira
Brazil 13-8-0 Brawler Orthodox 3-fight loss streak
20% | 80%
Women's Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 8 Nov · 8:00 AM AEST
NM
Nina Milosevic
9-1-0 Freestyle 1 win
Model Favourite
Nina Milosevic
79.7 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Nina Milosevic is favoured at 80% — fight-history features sparse
  • Nina Milosevic has 1 UFC fight — too little to compare fight stats, so this pick leans on age, size and pre-UFC record
Method Breakdown
Cachoeira Milosevic
KO/TKO 8.0
36.5
Submission 0.6
9.5
Decision 11.8
33.7
Finish Distribution · By Round
31
R1
16
R2
7
R3
45
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Cachoeira Milosevic
Str/min 4.3
5.2
Sig Acc 44%
52%
Str Def 46%
73%
TD/min 0.02
0.02
Finish 71%
85%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
40
44
CachoeiraMilosevic
Combined 79 15–161
Takedowns
0.1
0.0
CachoeiraMilosevic
Combined 0.9 0.0–4.0
Fight length
Expected 1.9 of 3 rounds 45% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Model lean favours Milosevic

    Nina Milosevic is favoured at 80% — fight-history features sparse

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
Sportsbet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
JP
Jonny Parsons
United States 9-3-0 Muay Thai Orthodox 1 win
66% | 34%
Welterweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 8 Nov · 8:00 AM AEST
Jose Henrique
Jose Henrique
Brazil 0-1-0
Model Favourite
Jonny Parsons
65.7 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Jonny Parsons is favoured at 66% — fight-history features sparse
  • Jonny Parsons has 1 UFC fight — too little to compare fight stats, so this pick leans on age, size and pre-UFC record
Method Breakdown
Parsons Henrique
KO/TKO 28.3
13.3
Submission 13.8
6.9
Decision 23.7
14.0
Finish Distribution · By Round
38
R1
17
R2
8
R3
38
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Parsons Henrique
Str/min 5.6
0.0
Sig Acc 49%
0%
Str Def 67%
0%
TD/min 0.02
0.00
Finish 88%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
26
19
ParsonsHenrique
Combined 60 16–136
Takedowns
0.0
0.0
ParsonsHenrique
Combined 1.3 0.0–4.6
Fight length
Expected 1.8 of 3 rounds 38% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Model lean favours Parsons

    Jonny Parsons is favoured at 66% — fight-history features sparse

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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