UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 — Results & Recap

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⟁ Past Events — Predictions vs. Actual Results

169 / 246

Correct Picks

68.7% accuracy · 24 events

9 / 16

Parlay Legs

9 parlays · −$514

−$859

Running P&L · opening

$1000 / event · Conservative · Kelly-weighted · closing: +$402

64 of 88 confident picks landed — when the model gives a fighter 70%+ it has been right 73% of the time

14–26 betting record with the same amount on every recommended bet (-14.9 units — early days, small sample)

Bankroll curve $1000 per event · Conservative tier · opening odds −$859

2026-06-15 peak $160 · trough $-946 2026-09-19

UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 2026-09-19 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · +$11

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Dooho Choi wins	Patricio Pitbull vs Dooho Choi	1.39	$72	✗ lost −$72
Edmen Shahbazyan wins	Edmen Shahbazyan vs Brunno Ferreira	1.59	$63	✓ won +$37
Joshua Van wins	Alexandre Pantoja vs Joshua Van	1.85	$54	✓ won +$46

Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado 2026-09-12 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · −$95

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Jose Delgado wins	Jean Silva vs Jose Delgado	4.25	—	⋯ pending
Rafa Garcia wins	Rafa Garcia vs Rongzhu	2.53	$74	✗ lost −$74
Marwan Rahiki wins	Tommy McMillen vs Marwan Rahiki	2.37	$21	✗ lost −$21

UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse 2026-09-05 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · −$52

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Mario Pinto wins	Ryan Spann vs Mario Pinto	1.35	$80	✓ won +$28
Dan Hooker wins	Dan Hooker vs Salahdine Parnasse	5.75	$80	✗ lost −$80

UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song 2026-08-29 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · −$4

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Julia Polastri wins	Xiong Jingnan vs Julia Polastri	1.45	—	⋯ pending
Nilson Rojas wins	Bilal Hasan vs Nilson Rojas	5.50	$80	✗ lost −$80
Denise Gomes wins	Yan Xiaonan vs Denise Gomes	2.32	$57	✓ won +$76

UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues 2026-08-22 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · −$111

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Terrance Chatman wins	Anthony Wint vs Terrance Chatman	8.00	$80	✗ lost −$80
Ryan Kuse wins	Marcio Barbosa vs Ryan Kuse	7.00	$31	✗ lost −$31

UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry 2026-08-15 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · −$80

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Gillian Robertson wins	Mackenzie Dern vs Gillian Robertson	2.72	$80	✗ lost −$80

UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld 2026-08-08 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · −$75

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Louie Sutherland wins	Henrique Da Silva Lopes vs Louie Sutherland	1.63	—	⋯ pending
Guilherme Pat wins	Steven Asplund vs Guilherme Pat	3.02	$49	✗ lost −$49
Jessie Rosas wins	Miles Johns vs Jessie Rosas	2.33	—	⋯ pending
Amanda Lemos wins	Amanda Lemos vs Alexia Thainara	3.02	$27	✗ lost −$27

UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez 2026-08-01 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · −$56

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Mateusz Rebecki wins	Kyle Prepolec vs Mateusz Rebecki	1.18	$80	✓ won +$14
Oban Elliott wins	Oban Elliott vs Michael Oliveira	3.57	$80	✗ lost −$80
Bogdan Grad wins	Dennis Buzukja vs Bogdan Grad	1.52	$62	✓ won +$32
Fight goes to Decision	Daniel Rodriguez vs Uros Medic	7.25	$22	✗ lost −$22

UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov 2026-07-25 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · −$102

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Nurullo Aliev wins	Mike Davis vs Nurullo Aliev	1.54	$80	✓ won +$43
Tyrell Fortune wins	Rizvan Kuniev vs Tyrell Fortune	3.34	$80	✗ lost −$80
Damian Rzepecki wins	Magomed Zaynukov vs Damian Rzepecki	3.73	$43	✗ lost −$43
Dustin Jacoby wins	Dustin Jacoby vs Muhammad Said	1.59	$23	✗ lost −$23

UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman 2026-07-18 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · +$38

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Chase Hooper wins	Chase Hooper vs Mitch Ramirez	1.27	$80	✓ won +$22
Christian Leroy Duncan wins	Jared Cannonier vs Christian Leroy Duncan	1.32	$80	✓ won +$26
Dricus Du Plessis wins by SUB	Kamaru Usman vs Dricus Du Plessis	9.25	$55	✗ lost −$55
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani wins	Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs Seokhyeon Ko	2.66	$28	✓ won +$46

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 2026-07-11 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly · −$200

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Elisha Ellison wins	Gable Steveson vs Elisha Ellison	10.00	$138	✗ lost −$138
Benoit Saint Denis wins	Paddy Pimblett vs Benoit Saint Denis	1.53	$62	✗ lost −$62

UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres 2026-06-27 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly · −$216

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Manuel Torres wins	Rafael Fiziev vs Manuel Torres	1.96	$115	✗ lost −$115
Eric Nolan wins by Sub or Decision	Eric Nolan vs Farman Hasanov	5.30	$70	✗ lost −$70
Matheus Camilo wins	Nazim Sadykhov vs Matheus Camilo	2.99	$48	✓ won +$95
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	Julius Walker vs Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev	3.92	$44	✗ lost −$44
Fight reaches Round 2	Julius Walker vs Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev	2.17	$44	✗ lost −$44
Michel Pereira wins	Michel Pereira vs Shara Magomedov	3.82	$37	✗ lost −$37

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi 2 2026-06-20 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly · +$109

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Luana Santos wins	Karol Rosa vs Luana Santos	1.97	$157	✓ won +$152
Kyoji Horiguchi wins by KO/TKO	Kyoji Horiguchi vs Manel Kape	11.50	$43	✗ lost −$43

UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje 2026-06-15 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly · −$26

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Josh Hokit wins by KO or Decision	Derrick Lewis vs Josh Hokit	1.78	$73	✓ won +$57
Ilia Topuria wins by DEC	Justin Gaethje vs Ilia Topuria	13.00	$57	✗ lost −$57
Steve Garcia wins	Steve Garcia vs Diego Lopes	2.48	$52	✗ lost −$52
Bo Nickal wins by KO or Decision	Kyle Daukaus vs Bo Nickal	1.71	$38	✓ won +$27

9 / 16

Legs landed

56.2% of picks

2 / 9

Parlays won

every leg has to land

−$514

Profit

$100 on each

Only 9 parlays settled so far — far too few to judge the profit either way. On 93 past cards, parlays picked this way landed 61% of the time.

UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 2026-09-19 · −$100

2-leg @ 2.21 Dooho Choi wins @ 1.39Edmen Shahbazyan wins @ 1.59 ✗ LOST −$100

Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado 2026-09-12 · −$100

2-leg @ 3.35 Ends in Round 3+ / Decision @ 2.22Edgar Chairez wins @ 1.51 ✗ LOST −$100

UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse 2026-09-05 · +$107

2-leg @ 2.07 Mario Pinto wins @ 1.35Felipe Lima wins @ 1.53 ✓ WON +$107

UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song 2026-08-29 · −$100

2-leg @ 1.81 Julia Polastri wins @ 1.45Ends in Round 3+ / Decision @ 1.25 ✗ LOST −$100

UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues 2026-08-22 · −$100

2-leg @ 2.31 Fight reaches Round 2 @ 1.30Gauge Young wins @ 1.78 ✗ LOST −$100

UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez 2026-08-01 · +$79

2-leg @ 1.79 Mateusz Rebecki wins @ 1.18Bogdan Grad wins @ 1.52 ✓ WON +$79

UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov 2026-07-25 · −$100

2-leg @ 2.45 Dustin Jacoby wins @ 1.59Nurullo Aliev wins @ 1.54 ✗ LOST −$100

UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman 2026-07-18 · −$100

2-leg @ 2.24 Christian Leroy Duncan wins @ 1.32Alvin Hines wins @ 1.70 ✗ LOST −$100

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 2026-07-11 · −$100

2-leg @ 1.99 Damian Pinas wins @ 1.46Fight reaches Round 2 @ 1.36 ✗ LOST −$100

UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 8/12 · 67%

2026-09-19

Alexandre Pantoja

30-6-0

Winner

Joshua Van

Decision (U) · R5

✓ predicted

Joshua Van

17-2-0

▼

Model Prediction

Alexandre Pantoja 26%

KO 4%· Sub 11%· Dec 11%

Joshua Van ✓ won 74%

KO 43%· Sub 4%· Dec 26%

Actual Fight Stats

	Alexandre Pantoja	Joshua Van
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	147/284	181/305
Total strikes landed	159	259
Knockdowns	0	1
Takedowns (landed/att)	5/18	0/0
Submission attempts	0	0
Control time	0:00	0:00

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Joshua Van wins value	74%	1.64	✓ predicted
Method Joshua Van wins by KO/TKO	43%	2.70	missed
Finish round Finish in Round 2	24%	—	missed

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	63%	9.00	✓ won
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	63%	7.00	✓ won
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	63%	5.00	✓ won
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	63%	3.75	✓ won
Joshua Van wins by KO/TKO in R2	16%	9.75	✗ lost
Joshua Van wins by finish in Round 2	18%	8.75	✗ lost
Joshua Van wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3 value	26%	6.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	18%	8.25	✗ lost
Joshua Van wins by KO/TKO in R3	10%	13.00	✗ lost
Joshua Van wins by finish in Round 3	11%	11.50	✗ lost
Joshua Van wins value	74%	1.64	✓ won
Joshua Van wins by KO or Decision value	70%	1.73	✓ won
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	63%	1.88	✓ won
Over 2.5 rounds	56%	2.10	✓ won
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	63%	1.85	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	11%	11.00	✗ lost
Joshua Van wins by KO/TKO	43%	2.70	✗ lost
Joshua Van wins by DEC	26%	4.40	✓ won
Joshua Van wins by KO or Sub	47%	2.45	✗ lost
Joshua Van wins by KO/TKO in R3 or R4	15%	7.75	✗ lost
Joshua Van wins by Sub or Decision	31%	3.70	✓ won
Joshua Van wins in R4+ or by Decision	35%	3.10	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO	47%	2.30	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 2	87%	1.22	✓ won
Finish before Round 4	51%	1.96	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	37%	2.68	✓ won
Fight goes to Decision	37%	2.60	✓ won
Joshua Van wins by Submission in R2	2%	61.00	✗ lost
Alexandre Pantoja significant strikes over 39.5	65%	1.40	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 49.5	79%	1.15	✓ won
Alexandre Pantoja significant strikes over 59.5	53%	1.72	✓ won
Alexandre Pantoja significant strikes over 19.5	80%	1.14	✓ won
Alexandre Pantoja significant strikes over 49.5	59%	1.53	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 59.5	75%	1.20	✓ won
Fight ends before decision	63%	1.43	✗ lost
Alexandre Pantoja significant strikes over 29.5	72%	1.25	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 69.5	72%	1.25	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 79.5	68%	1.31	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 89.5	65%	1.37	✓ won
Joshua Van significant strikes over 19.5	82%	1.08	✓ won
Alexandre Pantoja significant strikes over 69.5	46%	1.91	✓ won
Joshua Van significant strikes over 49.5	65%	1.36	✓ won
Joshua Van significant strikes over 29.5	75%	1.17	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 99.5	61%	1.42	✓ won
Joshua Van significant strikes over 39.5	70%	1.25	✓ won
Joshua Van wins by Submission in R2, R3 or R4	3%	29.00	✗ lost
Joshua Van significant strikes over 59.5	59%	1.45	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 109.5	58%	1.48	✓ won
Joshua Van significant strikes over 69.5	54%	1.57	✓ won
Joshua Van wins by Submission in R3	1%	91.00	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 0.5	80%	1.05	✓ won
Joshua Van significant strikes over 79.5	49%	1.72	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 119.5	55%	1.54	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 129.5	51%	1.61	✓ won
Alexandre Pantoja significant strikes over 79.5	39%	2.10	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 139.5	48%	1.68	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 149.5	46%	1.76	✓ won
Joshua Van wins by KO/TKO in R4 or R5	8%	9.75	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 159.5	43%	1.83	✓ won
Total takedowns over 1.5	62%	1.26	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 169.5	40%	1.92	✓ won
Alexandre Pantoja significant strikes over 89.5	32%	2.40	✓ won
Joshua Van significant strikes over 89.5	42%	1.83	✓ won
Joshua Van wins by KO/TKO in R4	5%	15.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 179.5	38%	2.00	✓ won
Joshua Van wins by SUB	4%	18.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 189.5	35%	2.12	✓ won
Alexandre Pantoja takedowns over 0.5	68%	1.08	✓ won
Under 2.5 rounds	44%	1.66	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R4	6%	13.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 199.5	33%	2.20	✓ won
Alexandre Pantoja takedowns over 1.5	52%	1.36	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission in R2	6%	12.00	✗ lost
Joshua Van significant strikes over 99.5	35%	2.00	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 209.5	30%	2.35	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 219.5	27%	2.50	✓ won
Alexandre Pantoja wins by DEC	11%	6.25	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 2.5	46%	1.45	✓ won
Alexandre Pantoja significant strikes over 99.5	25%	2.63	✓ won
Total knockdowns over 0.5	38%	1.74	✓ won
Alexandre Pantoja wins by KO or Decision	15%	4.40	✗ lost
Joshua Van wins by KO/TKO in R1	9%	7.25	✗ lost
Joshua Van takedowns over 0.5	22%	3.00	✗ lost
Alexandre Pantoja wins by finish in Round 2	6%	11.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 229.5	24%	2.65	✓ won
Joshua Van wins by finish in Round 1	10%	6.50	✗ lost
Alexandre Pantoja wins by KO/TKO in R2	2%	41.00	✗ lost
Joshua Van significant strikes over 109.5	28%	2.25	✓ won
Joshua Van wins by KO/TKO in R5	3%	21.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	10%	6.25	✗ lost
Alexandre Pantoja wins by Submission in R2	4%	14.00	✗ lost
Joshua Van takedowns over 1.5	9%	6.50	✗ lost
Alexandre Pantoja wins by Submission in R2 or R3	7%	8.75	✗ lost
Alexandre Pantoja wins in R4+ or by Decision	14%	4.40	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R5	3%	18.00	✗ lost
Alexandre Pantoja wins	26%	2.27	✗ lost
Alexandre Pantoja significant strikes over 109.5	20%	3.00	✓ won
Total takedowns over 3.5	35%	1.66	✓ won
Joshua Van wins by Submission in R3, R4 or R5	2%	34.00	✗ lost
Alexandre Pantoja wins by Sub or Decision	22%	2.60	✗ lost
Alexandre Pantoja wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	2%	23.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	4%	16.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	16%	3.50	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 239.5	19%	2.80	✓ won
Joshua Van significant strikes over 119.5	22%	2.40	✓ won
Alexandre Pantoja takedowns over 2.5	32%	1.57	✓ won
Alexandre Pantoja wins by KO or Sub	16%	3.20	✗ lost
Alexandre Pantoja significant strikes over 119.5	14%	3.50	✓ won
Alexandre Pantoja wins by KO/TKO	4%	12.00	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 4.5	25%	2.00	✓ won
Alexandre Pantoja wins by finish in Round 3	3%	14.00	✗ lost
Alexandre Pantoja wins by KO/TKO in R3 or R4	1%	34.00	✗ lost
Alexandre Pantoja wins by KO/TKO in R3	1%	51.00	✗ lost
Alexandre Pantoja wins by SUB	11%	4.10	✗ lost
Alexandre Pantoja wins by Submission in R3	3%	18.00	✗ lost
Alexandre Pantoja wins by Submission in R3 or R4	4%	11.00	✗ lost
Joshua Van significant strikes over 129.5	15%	2.75	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 249.5	14%	2.95	✓ won
Joshua Van wins by Submission in R1	1%	46.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R4	2%	19.00	✗ lost
Alexandre Pantoja significant strikes over 129.5	9%	4.00	✓ won
Alexandre Pantoja wins by KO/TKO in R4 or R5	1%	41.00	✗ lost
Alexandre Pantoja wins by Submission in R4	1%	23.00	✗ lost
Joshua Van wins by finish in Round 1	10%	3.15	✗ lost
Alexandre Pantoja wins by Submission in R4 or R5	2%	14.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	3%	9.00	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 5.5	12%	2.35	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R5	1%	26.00	✗ lost
Alexandre Pantoja wins by finish in Round 1	3%	8.50	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 259.5	8%	3.20	✓ won
Alexandre Pantoja wins by KO/TKO in R1	1%	31.00	✗ lost
Alexandre Pantoja takedowns over 3.5	14%	1.80	✓ won
Alexandre Pantoja wins by Submission in R1	2%	10.50	✗ lost
Joshua Van significant strikes over 139.5	8%	3.00	✓ won
Alexandre Pantoja wins by Submission in R5	1%	29.00	✗ lost
Alexandre Pantoja significant strikes over 139.5	3%	4.50	✓ won
Alexandre Pantoja wins by finish in Round 1	3%	4.10	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 269.5	3%	3.45	✓ won
Joshua Van significant strikes over 149.5	1%	3.40	✓ won

Arman Tsarukyan

23-3-0

Winner

Arman Tsarukyan

KO/TKO · R1

✓ predicted

Mauricio Ruffy

13-2-0

▼

Model Prediction

Arman Tsarukyan ✓ won 78%

KO 33%· Sub 13%· Dec 33%

Mauricio Ruffy 22%

KO 16%· Sub 0%· Dec 6%

Actual Fight Stats

	Arman Tsarukyan	Mauricio Ruffy
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	8/19	4/10
Total strikes landed	9	22
Knockdowns	1	0
Takedowns (landed/att)	1/10	0/0
Submission attempts	0	0
Control time	0:00	0:00

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Arman Tsarukyan wins	78%	1.32	✓ predicted
Method Arman Tsarukyan wins by KO/TKO	33%	3.30	✓ predicted
Finish round Finish in Round 1	23%	—	✓ predicted

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	56%	12.00	✗ lost
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	56%	10.00	✗ lost
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	56%	4.50	✗ lost
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	56%	4.00	✗ lost
Arman Tsarukyan wins by DEC value	33%	5.20	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	39%	3.78	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	39%	3.70	✗ lost
Arman Tsarukyan wins by KO or Decision value	65%	2.10	✓ won
Arman Tsarukyan wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	24%	5.60	✓ won
Arman Tsarukyan wins by KO/TKO in R2	11%	11.50	✗ lost
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	56%	2.27	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 5	42%	3.00	✗ lost
Arman Tsarukyan wins in R4+ or by Decision	39%	3.05	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	17%	7.00	✗ lost
Arman Tsarukyan wins by KO/TKO in R1	12%	9.00	✓ won
Arman Tsarukyan wins by KO/TKO	33%	3.30	✓ won
Arman Tsarukyan wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	16%	6.75	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	18%	5.70	✓ won
Arman Tsarukyan wins	78%	1.32	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO	49%	2.03	✓ won
Over 2.5 rounds	52%	1.90	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	21%	4.60	✗ lost
Finish before Round 3	44%	2.11	✓ won
Arman Tsarukyan wins by Sub or Decision	45%	2.03	✗ lost
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	56%	1.58	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	48%	1.80	✓ won
Arman Tsarukyan wins by finish in Round 1	17%	4.90	✓ won
Mauricio Ruffy wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	11%	7.25	✗ lost
Mauricio Ruffy wins by KO/TKO in R2	5%	15.00	✗ lost
Mauricio Ruffy wins by KO or Decision	22%	3.60	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	61%	1.25	✓ won
Arman Tsarukyan wins by KO or Sub	46%	1.68	✓ won
Mauricio Ruffy wins by KO/TKO	16%	4.75	✗ lost
Mauricio Ruffy wins by DEC	6%	12.50	✗ lost
Mauricio Ruffy wins	22%	3.40	✗ lost
Mauricio Ruffy wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	8%	9.50	✗ lost
Mauricio Ruffy wins by KO/TKO in R1	6%	12.00	✗ lost
Mauricio Ruffy wins by KO or Sub	16%	4.30	✗ lost
Mauricio Ruffy wins in R4+ or by Decision	8%	8.00	✗ lost
Arman Tsarukyan wins by KO/TKO in R3 or R4	8%	8.75	✗ lost
Mauricio Ruffy wins by finish in Round 1	6%	10.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	7%	9.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R4	5%	13.00	✗ lost
Arman Tsarukyan wins by KO/TKO in R3	4%	13.00	✗ lost
Arman Tsarukyan wins by KO/TKO in R4 or R5	5%	12.00	✗ lost
Mauricio Ruffy wins by Sub or Decision	6%	9.50	✗ lost
Arman Tsarukyan wins by KO/TKO in R4	3%	19.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	8%	5.75	✗ lost
Arman Tsarukyan wins by Submission in R1 or R2	9%	5.30	✗ lost
Mauricio Ruffy wins by KO/TKO in R3, R4 or R5	4%	10.50	✗ lost
Arman Tsarukyan wins by Submission in R2	4%	11.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 4	6%	8.25	✗ lost
Arman Tsarukyan wins by KO/TKO in R5	2%	26.00	✗ lost
Mauricio Ruffy wins by KO/TKO in R4	1%	31.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R5	3%	17.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	4%	10.00	✗ lost
Arman Tsarukyan wins by Submission in R1	5%	8.75	✗ lost
Mauricio Ruffy wins by KO/TKO in R3	2%	19.00	✗ lost
Arman Tsarukyan wins by SUB	13%	3.20	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	5%	8.25	✗ lost
Arman Tsarukyan wins by Submission in R2 or R3	6%	6.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	13%	2.95	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 5	3%	11.00	✗ lost
Arman Tsarukyan wins by finish in Round 1	17%	2.15	✓ won
Mauricio Ruffy wins by KO/TKO in R5	1%	41.00	✗ lost
Mauricio Ruffy wins by finish in Round 1	6%	5.30	✗ lost
Arman Tsarukyan wins by Submission in R3 or R4	3%	8.50	✗ lost
Arman Tsarukyan wins by Submission in R3	2%	13.00	✗ lost
Arman Tsarukyan wins by Submission in R4 or R5	2%	11.50	✗ lost
Arman Tsarukyan wins by Submission in R4	1%	18.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	2%	12.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R4	1%	17.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R5	1%	23.00	✗ lost
Arman Tsarukyan wins by Submission in R5	1%	23.00	✗ lost

Patricio Pitbull

0-1-0

Winner

Patricio Pitbull

KO/TKO · R1

✗ wrong

Dooho Choi

16-4-1

▼

Model Prediction

Patricio Pitbull ✓ won 10%

KO 1%· Sub 1%· Dec 7%

Dooho Choi 90%

KO 23%· Sub 6%· Dec 62%

Actual Fight Stats

	Patricio Pitbull	Dooho Choi
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	38/75	20/46
Total strikes landed	38	20
Knockdowns	1	0
Takedowns (landed/att)	0/0	0/0
Submission attempts	0	0
Control time	0:00	0:00

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Dooho Choi wins value	90%	1.34	missed
Method Dooho Choi wins by Decision value	62%	2.85	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	69%	1.94	missed

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Dooho Choi wins by Decision value	62%	2.87	✗ lost
Dooho Choi wins by DEC value	62%	2.85	✗ lost
Dooho Choi wins by Sub or Decision value	68%	2.45	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	69%	1.94	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	69%	1.92	✗ lost
Dooho Choi wins value	90%	1.34	✗ lost
Dooho Choi wins by KO or Decision value	85%	1.43	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	72%	1.66	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 3	74%	1.57	✗ lost
Dooho Choi significant strikes over 89.5	23%	4.00	✗ lost
Dooho Choi significant strikes over 19.5	78%	1.10	✓ won
Dooho Choi significant strikes over 79.5	30%	2.88	✗ lost
Patricio Pitbull significant strikes over 19.5	71%	1.20	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 49.5	70%	1.18	✓ won
Dooho Choi wins by Submission in R1 or R2	5%	17.00	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 0.5	70%	1.18	✗ lost
Dooho Choi significant strikes over 69.5	35%	2.30	✗ lost
Dooho Choi significant strikes over 29.5	66%	1.20	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 59.5	63%	1.25	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 1.5	57%	1.36	✗ lost
Dooho Choi takedowns over 0.5	47%	1.62	✗ lost
Dooho Choi wins by SUB	6%	13.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 69.5	56%	1.33	✗ lost
Patricio Pitbull significant strikes over 29.5	55%	1.36	✓ won
Dooho Choi significant strikes over 59.5	41%	1.83	✗ lost
Dooho Choi wins by Submission in R1	3%	26.00	✗ lost
Dooho Choi significant strikes over 49.5	46%	1.57	✗ lost
Dooho Choi significant strikes over 39.5	54%	1.33	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 79.5	50%	1.43	✗ lost
Dooho Choi wins by Submission in R2	2%	34.00	✗ lost
Patricio Pitbull takedowns over 0.5	42%	1.67	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 89.5	45%	1.55	✗ lost
Dooho Choi wins by finish in Round 1	14%	5.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 99.5	40%	1.72	✗ lost
Dooho Choi wins by KO or Sub	29%	2.35	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 109.5	35%	1.91	✗ lost
Dooho Choi wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	19%	3.45	✗ lost
Total knockdowns over 0.5	38%	1.70	✓ won
Dooho Choi wins by KO/TKO in R1	11%	5.80	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 119.5	30%	2.15	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 2.5	39%	1.59	✗ lost
Dooho Choi wins by KO/TKO	23%	2.70	✗ lost
Dooho Choi wins by finish in Round 2	10%	6.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 129.5	24%	2.50	✗ lost
Dooho Choi takedowns over 1.5	30%	2.00	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	28%	2.10	✓ won
Finish before Round 3	26%	2.30	✓ won
Dooho Choi wins by KO/TKO in R2	8%	7.25	✗ lost
Dooho Choi wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	12%	4.75	✗ lost
Dooho Choi significant strikes over 99.5	11%	5.00	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	31%	1.80	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	12%	4.75	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	9%	6.25	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	24%	2.20	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission	7%	7.50	✗ lost
Patricio Pitbull significant strikes over 69.5	12%	4.20	✗ lost
Dooho Choi wins by Submission in R3	1%	51.00	✗ lost
Patricio Pitbull significant strikes over 59.5	16%	2.88	✗ lost
Patricio Pitbull significant strikes over 39.5	28%	1.67	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	2%	19.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	3%	14.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 139.5	16%	2.95	✗ lost
Patricio Pitbull significant strikes over 49.5	21%	2.10	✗ lost
Patricio Pitbull takedowns over 1.5	20%	2.10	✗ lost
Patricio Pitbull significant strikes over 79.5	7%	6.00	✗ lost
Patricio Pitbull wins by DEC	7%	5.60	✗ lost
Patricio Pitbull wins by Decision	7%	5.50	✗ lost
Dooho Choi wins by finish in Round 1	14%	2.95	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 3.5	21%	1.88	✗ lost
Dooho Choi wins by KO/TKO in R3	4%	10.50	✗ lost
Dooho Choi takedowns over 2.5	15%	2.63	✗ lost
Patricio Pitbull wins by Sub or Decision	8%	4.25	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	4%	9.00	✗ lost
Patricio Pitbull wins by KO or Decision	9%	3.80	✓ won
Patricio Pitbull wins	10%	3.29	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission in R3	1%	26.00	✗ lost
Patricio Pitbull takedowns over 2.5	10%	2.75	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 4.5	10%	2.35	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 149.5	7%	3.50	✗ lost
Patricio Pitbull significant strikes over 89.5	2%	9.00	✗ lost
Total knockdowns over 1.5	2%	7.25	✗ lost
Patricio Pitbull wins by Submission in R1 or R2	1%	17.00	✗ lost
Patricio Pitbull wins by KO or Sub	2%	6.25	✓ won
Patricio Pitbull wins by SUB	1%	13.00	✗ lost
Patricio Pitbull wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	1%	12.50	✓ won
Patricio Pitbull wins by KO/TKO	1%	10.00	✓ won
Patricio Pitbull wins by finish in Round 1	1%	8.00	✓ won
Dooho Choi takedowns over 3.5	1%	3.40	✗ lost

Gable Steveson

3-0-0

Winner

Sean Sharaf

KO/TKO · R1

✗ wrong

Sean Sharaf

4-2-0

▼

Model Prediction

Gable Steveson 93%

KO 77%· Sub 4%· Dec 11%

Sean Sharaf ✓ won 7%

KO 0%· Sub 7%· Dec 0%

Actual Fight Stats

	Gable Steveson	Sean Sharaf
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	1/2	3/6
Total strikes landed	1	3
Knockdowns	0	1
Takedowns (landed/att)	0/0	0/0
Submission attempts	0	0
Control time	0:00	0:00

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Gable Steveson wins	93%	1.06	missed
Method Gable Steveson wins by KO/TKO	77%	1.25	missed
Finish round Finish in Round 1	49%	—	✓ predicted

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Sean Sharaf wins by Submission in R2	3%	151.00	✗ lost
Sean Sharaf takedowns over 0.5	36%	11.00	✗ lost
Sean Sharaf wins by Submission in R1 or R2	7%	41.00	✗ lost
Sean Sharaf wins by SUB	7%	34.00	✗ lost
Sean Sharaf significant strikes over 49.5	20%	11.00	✗ lost
Gable Steveson wins by DEC	11%	19.00	✗ lost
Gable Steveson wins by KO/TKO in R2 value	29%	7.25	✗ lost
Gable Steveson wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3 value	34%	6.00	✗ lost
Sean Sharaf wins by Submission in R1	4%	51.00	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	85%	2.37	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	29%	7.00	✗ lost
Sean Sharaf significant strikes over 39.5	25%	8.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	33%	5.90	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 2	51%	3.70	✗ lost
Gable Steveson wins in R3+ or by Decision	16%	11.50	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 89.5	33%	5.40	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 99.5	28%	6.25	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 79.5	39%	4.50	✗ lost
Sean Sharaf significant strikes over 29.5	35%	5.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 109.5	23%	7.25	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 69.5	44%	3.70	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 119.5	18%	8.50	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 59.5	50%	2.95	✗ lost
Gable Steveson wins by KO/TKO in R3	5%	26.00	✗ lost
Gable Steveson significant strikes over 39.5	47%	2.88	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 49.5	57%	2.35	✗ lost
Sean Sharaf wins by Sub or Decision	7%	18.00	✗ lost
Sean Sharaf significant strikes over 19.5	45%	2.88	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	11%	11.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 129.5	13%	9.75	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	5%	23.00	✗ lost
Gable Steveson significant strikes over 29.5	59%	2.00	✗ lost
Gable Steveson significant strikes over 49.5	29%	4.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	6%	19.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	4%	26.00	✗ lost
Sean Sharaf wins by KO or Sub	7%	15.00	✓ won
Fight goes to decision	11%	9.50	✗ lost
Gable Steveson wins by KO or Decision	88%	1.19	✗ lost
Gable Steveson significant strikes over 19.5	71%	1.45	✗ lost
Gable Steveson significant strikes over 59.5	20%	5.00	✗ lost
Gable Steveson wins	93%	1.06	✗ lost
Gable Steveson wins by KO/TKO	77%	1.25	✗ lost
Gable Steveson wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	72%	1.30	✗ lost
Gable Steveson significant strikes over 69.5	14%	6.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	77%	1.20	✓ won
Finish before Round 3	83%	1.07	✓ won
Gable Steveson wins by KO or Sub	81%	1.07	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 139.5	7%	11.00	✗ lost
Gable Steveson wins by Sub or Decision	16%	4.90	✗ lost
Sean Sharaf wins	7%	9.50	✓ won
Total takedowns over 0.5	47%	1.51	✗ lost
Sean Sharaf wins by finish in Round 1	4%	17.00	✓ won
Total takedowns over 1.5	33%	2.12	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 3.5	15%	4.40	✗ lost
Gable Steveson wins by KO/TKO in R1	43%	1.54	✗ lost
Gable Steveson significant strikes over 79.5	8%	8.00	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 2.5	22%	2.95	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	43%	1.49	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission in R3	1%	81.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	12%	5.40	✗ lost
Gable Steveson wins by Submission in R2	2%	31.00	✗ lost
Gable Steveson wins by Submission in R2 or R3	2%	26.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	6%	6.50	✗ lost
Total knockdowns over 0.5	38%	1.08	✓ won
Gable Steveson takedowns over 0.5	24%	1.53	✗ lost
Gable Steveson takedowns over 1.5	16%	2.20	✗ lost
Sean Sharaf wins in R3+ or by Decision	1%	23.00	✗ lost
Gable Steveson wins by SUB	4%	6.00	✗ lost
Gable Steveson wins by Submission in R1 or R2	4%	6.00	✗ lost
Gable Steveson takedowns over 2.5	8%	3.00	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	15%	1.57	✗ lost
Gable Steveson significant strikes over 89.5	2%	10.00	✗ lost
Gable Steveson wins by Submission in R1	2%	7.00	✗ lost
Total knockdowns over 1.5	2%	5.50	✗ lost

Alonzo Menifield

17-6-1

Winner

Alonzo Menifield

Decision (S) · R3

✗ wrong

Iwo Baraniewski

8-0-0

▼

Model Prediction

Alonzo Menifield ✓ won 27%

KO 8%· Sub 5%· Dec 14%

Iwo Baraniewski 73%

KO 57%· Sub 4%· Dec 12%

Actual Fight Stats

	Alonzo Menifield	Iwo Baraniewski
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	62/162	67/121
Total strikes landed	140	89
Knockdowns	0	0
Takedowns (landed/att)	1/5	1/3
Submission attempts	0	0
Control time	0:00	0:00

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Iwo Baraniewski wins	73%	1.32	missed
Method Iwo Baraniewski wins by KO/TKO	57%	1.67	missed
Finish round Finish in Round 1	45%	—	missed

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Alonzo Menifield significant strikes over 69.5	22%	10.00	✗ lost
Alonzo Menifield significant strikes over 59.5	30%	7.00	✓ won
Alonzo Menifield significant strikes over 49.5	40%	5.00	✓ won
Alonzo Menifield significant strikes over 39.5	49%	3.75	✓ won
Iwo Baraniewski wins in R3+ or by Decision value	25%	7.00	✗ lost
Alonzo Menifield significant strikes over 29.5	59%	2.80	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 79.5	49%	3.15	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 99.5	36%	4.30	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 89.5	42%	3.60	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 109.5	29%	5.10	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 69.5	55%	2.70	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 119.5	24%	6.00	✓ won
Total takedowns over 1.5	34%	4.10	✓ won
Iwo Baraniewski significant strikes over 39.5	51%	2.75	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 59.5	60%	2.30	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 129.5	20%	7.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 139.5	16%	8.75	✗ lost
Alonzo Menifield significant strikes over 19.5	69%	1.91	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 49.5	66%	1.97	✓ won
Alonzo Menifield wins by DEC	14%	9.00	✓ won
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	34%	3.70	✓ won
Fight goes to Decision	26%	4.80	✓ won
Iwo Baraniewski significant strikes over 29.5	62%	2.00	✓ won
Iwo Baraniewski wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	22%	5.50	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 149.5	12%	10.50	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 2	55%	2.18	✓ won
Iwo Baraniewski wins by DEC	12%	10.00	✗ lost
Iwo Baraniewski significant strikes over 49.5	33%	3.60	✓ won
Alonzo Menifield wins by Decision	14%	8.50	✓ won
Alonzo Menifield wins by Sub or Decision	19%	6.00	✓ won
Iwo Baraniewski wins by KO/TKO in R2	16%	7.00	✗ lost
Iwo Baraniewski wins by KO/TKO in R3	6%	19.00	✗ lost
Iwo Baraniewski significant strikes over 19.5	73%	1.50	✓ won
Total takedowns over 0.5	50%	2.15	✓ won
Alonzo Menifield takedowns over 0.5	29%	3.60	✓ won
Iwo Baraniewski wins by finish in Round 2	17%	6.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	18%	5.60	✗ lost
Iwo Baraniewski wins by KO or Decision	69%	1.47	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	70%	1.44	✗ lost
Iwo Baraniewski significant strikes over 59.5	20%	5.00	✓ won
Iwo Baraniewski wins	73%	1.32	✗ lost
Iwo Baraniewski wins by KO/TKO	57%	1.67	✗ lost
Iwo Baraniewski wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	51%	1.79	✗ lost
Alonzo Menifield wins	27%	3.40	✓ won
Iwo Baraniewski wins by KO or Sub	61%	1.48	✗ lost
Iwo Baraniewski wins by Sub or Decision	16%	5.75	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	8%	11.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	7%	13.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	65%	1.33	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	74%	1.16	✗ lost
Finish before Round 3	66%	1.25	✗ lost
Iwo Baraniewski takedowns over 0.5	24%	3.50	✓ won
Alonzo Menifield wins by KO or Decision	21%	3.80	✓ won
Iwo Baraniewski wins by KO/TKO in R1	35%	2.30	✗ lost
Alonzo Menifield wins by Submission in R2	2%	51.00	✗ lost
Iwo Baraniewski wins by finish in Round 1	37%	2.10	✗ lost
Alonzo Menifield wins by Submission in R1 or R2	5%	16.00	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	30%	2.62	✓ won
Alonzo Menifield wins by SUB	5%	14.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	40%	1.89	✗ lost
Iwo Baraniewski significant strikes over 69.5	11%	6.50	✗ lost
Alonzo Menifield wins by Submission in R2 or R3	2%	34.00	✗ lost
Alonzo Menifield wins by Submission in R1	3%	21.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	9%	6.75	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	3%	23.00	✗ lost
Iwo Baraniewski wins by finish in Round 1	37%	1.59	✗ lost
Alonzo Menifield wins by KO or Sub	13%	4.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	6%	9.25	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	1%	51.00	✗ lost
Alonzo Menifield wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	7%	6.75	✗ lost
Alonzo Menifield wins by KO/TKO	8%	6.00	✗ lost
Iwo Baraniewski wins by Submission in R2	1%	41.00	✗ lost
Total knockdowns over 0.5	38%	1.13	✗ lost
Alonzo Menifield wins by KO/TKO in R1	5%	9.00	✗ lost
Alonzo Menifield wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	3%	14.00	✗ lost
Alonzo Menifield wins by KO/TKO in R2	2%	19.00	✗ lost
Alonzo Menifield wins by finish in Round 1	8%	5.10	✗ lost
Iwo Baraniewski wins by SUB	4%	10.50	✗ lost
Iwo Baraniewski wins by Submission in R1 or R2	3%	11.50	✗ lost
Iwo Baraniewski wins by Submission in R1	2%	14.00	✗ lost
Alonzo Menifield wins by KO/TKO in R3	1%	34.00	✗ lost
Iwo Baraniewski significant strikes over 79.5	3%	9.00	✗ lost
Total knockdowns over 1.5	2%	3.90	✗ lost

Marlon Vera

23-12-1

Winner

Marlon Vera

KO/TKO · R3

✗ wrong

Charles Jourdain

18-8-1

▼

Model Prediction

Marlon Vera ✓ won 34%

KO 7%· Sub 10%· Dec 17%

Charles Jourdain 66%

KO 20%· Sub 9%· Dec 37%

Actual Fight Stats

	Marlon Vera	Charles Jourdain
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	72/128	83/127
Total strikes landed	80	108
Knockdowns	3	0
Takedowns (landed/att)	3/3	0/1
Submission attempts	0	0
Control time	0:00	0:00

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Charles Jourdain wins value	66%	4.00	missed
Method Charles Jourdain wins by Decision value	37%	5.10	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	54%	4.00	missed

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Charles Jourdain wins by KO or Sub value	29%	15.00	✗ lost
Charles Jourdain wins by KO/TKO value	20%	19.00	✗ lost
Charles Jourdain wins by SUB	9%	41.00	✗ lost
Charles Jourdain wins value	66%	4.00	✗ lost
Charles Jourdain wins by KO or Decision value	57%	4.40	✗ lost
Charles Jourdain wins by Sub or Decision value	46%	4.75	✗ lost
Marlon Vera wins by SUB	10%	19.00	✗ lost
Charles Jourdain wins by DEC value	37%	5.10	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	46%	4.00	✓ won
Marlon Vera wins by KO or Sub	17%	4.75	✓ won
Fight goes to decision	54%	1.20	✗ lost
Marlon Vera wins	34%	1.17	✓ won
Marlon Vera wins by Sub or Decision	27%	1.46	✗ lost
Marlon Vera wins by KO/TKO	7%	5.75	✓ won
Marlon Vera wins by KO or Decision	24%	1.25	✓ won
Marlon Vera wins by DEC	17%	1.55	✗ lost

Tai Tuivasa

15-10-0

Winner

Robelis Despaigne

Decision (S) · R3

✓ predicted

Robelis Despaigne

5-2-0

▼

Model Prediction

Tai Tuivasa 39%

KO 25%· Sub 2%· Dec 12%

Robelis Despaigne ✓ won 61%

KO 39%· Sub 3%· Dec 19%

Actual Fight Stats

	Tai Tuivasa	Robelis Despaigne
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	31/68	30/69
Total strikes landed	54	83
Knockdowns	0	0
Takedowns (landed/att)	1/6	2/2
Submission attempts	0	0
Control time	0:00	0:00

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Robelis Despaigne wins	61%	1.22	✓ predicted
Method Robelis Despaigne wins by KO/TKO	39%	1.37	missed
Finish round Finish in Round 1	35%	—	missed

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Robelis Despaigne wins by DEC value	19%	11.00	✓ won
Tai Tuivasa wins by KO/TKO in R2	10%	19.00	✗ lost
Robelis Despaigne wins by Sub or Decision value	22%	8.25	✓ won
Fight goes to Decision	31%	5.70	✓ won
Robelis Despaigne wins by Decision	19%	9.50	✓ won
Tai Tuivasa wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2 value	22%	7.75	✗ lost
Tai Tuivasa wins value	39%	4.35	✗ lost
Tai Tuivasa wins by KO or Decision value	38%	4.50	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	31%	5.40	✓ won
Tai Tuivasa wins by KO/TKO value	25%	6.50	✗ lost
Tai Tuivasa wins by KO or Sub value	27%	5.90	✗ lost
Tai Tuivasa wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	12%	12.50	✗ lost
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	38%	3.78	✓ won
Tai Tuivasa wins by KO/TKO in R1	13%	11.00	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 2	65%	2.12	✓ won
Tai Tuivasa wins by DEC	12%	11.00	✗ lost
Tai Tuivasa wins by Sub or Decision	14%	9.25	✗ lost
Tai Tuivasa wins by finish in Round 1	13%	9.50	✗ lost
Tai Tuivasa wins in R3+ or by Decision	15%	8.50	✗ lost
Tai Tuivasa wins by finish in Round 2	10%	12.00	✗ lost
Robelis Despaigne wins by Submission in R2	1%	101.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	25%	4.60	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	2%	51.00	✗ lost
Tai Tuivasa wins by finish in Round 1	13%	7.00	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	65%	1.44	✗ lost
Robelis Despaigne wins by finish in Round 2	17%	5.50	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	35%	2.62	✓ won
Robelis Despaigne wins by KO/TKO in R2	15%	5.60	✗ lost
Tai Tuivasa wins by Submission in R2	1%	126.00	✗ lost
Robelis Despaigne wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	19%	4.10	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	69%	1.13	✗ lost
Finish before Round 3	62%	1.25	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	5%	16.00	✗ lost
Tai Tuivasa wins by KO/TKO in R3	3%	29.00	✗ lost
Robelis Despaigne wins	61%	1.22	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO	64%	1.15	✗ lost
Robelis Despaigne wins by Submission in R1 or R2	3%	26.00	✗ lost
Robelis Despaigne wins by SUB	3%	23.00	✗ lost
Robelis Despaigne wins by KO or Decision	58%	1.24	✓ won
Tai Tuivasa wins by Submission in R1 or R2	2%	46.00	✗ lost
Tai Tuivasa wins by Submission in R2 or R3	1%	81.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	7%	8.75	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	7%	9.25	✗ lost
Tai Tuivasa wins by Submission in R1	1%	71.00	✗ lost
Tai Tuivasa wins by SUB	2%	34.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	32%	1.74	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	2%	23.00	✗ lost
Robelis Despaigne wins by KO or Sub	42%	1.31	✗ lost
Robelis Despaigne wins by KO/TKO	39%	1.37	✗ lost
Robelis Despaigne wins by Submission in R1	2%	34.00	✗ lost
Robelis Despaigne wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	35%	1.50	✗ lost
Robelis Despaigne wins by KO/TKO in R3	4%	12.00	✗ lost
Robelis Despaigne wins by finish in Round 1	21%	2.00	✗ lost
Robelis Despaigne wins by KO/TKO in R1	20%	1.98	✗ lost
Robelis Despaigne wins by finish in Round 1	21%	1.45	✗ lost

Michael Aswell Jr.

11-5-0

Winner

Michael Aswell Jr.

Decision (S) · R3

✓ predicted

JooSang Yoo

9-1-0

▼

Model Prediction

Michael Aswell Jr. ✓ won 58%

KO 32%· Sub 4%· Dec 22%

JooSang Yoo 42%

KO 8%· Sub 3%· Dec 30%

Actual Fight Stats

	Michael Aswell Jr.	JooSang Yoo
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	70/145	46/129
Total strikes landed	93	51
Knockdowns	0	0
Takedowns (landed/att)	0/1	1/4
Submission attempts	0	0
Control time	0:00	0:00

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Michael Aswell Jr. wins	58%	1.60	✓ predicted
Method Michael Aswell Jr. wins by KO/TKO value	32%	9.25	missed
Finish round Finish in Round 1	26%	—	missed

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Michael Aswell Jr. wins by KO/TKO value	32%	9.25	✗ lost
Michael Aswell Jr. wins by KO or Sub value	36%	8.25	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	47%	4.00	✗ lost
JooSang Yoo wins by SUB	3%	41.00	✗ lost
Michael Aswell Jr. wins by SUB	4%	34.00	✗ lost
JooSang Yoo wins by Sub or Decision	34%	3.00	✗ lost
JooSang Yoo wins by DEC	30%	3.10	✗ lost
Michael Aswell Jr. wins	58%	1.60	✓ won
Michael Aswell Jr. wins by KO or Decision	54%	1.67	✓ won
JooSang Yoo wins by KO or Decision	39%	2.30	✗ lost
JooSang Yoo wins	42%	2.12	✗ lost
JooSang Yoo wins by KO or Sub	12%	6.50	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	53%	1.20	✓ won
JooSang Yoo wins by KO/TKO	8%	6.75	✗ lost
Michael Aswell Jr. wins by Sub or Decision	26%	1.90	✓ won
Michael Aswell Jr. wins by DEC	22%	1.95	✓ won

Ozzy Diaz

10-3-0

Winner

Ryan Gandra

KO/TKO · R1

✓ predicted

Ryan Gandra

9-1-0

▼

Model Prediction

Ozzy Diaz 28%

KO 6%· Sub 8%· Dec 14%

Ryan Gandra ✓ won 72%

KO 35%· Sub 5%· Dec 31%

Actual Fight Stats

	Ozzy Diaz	Ryan Gandra
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	3/4	16/34
Total strikes landed	3	16
Knockdowns	0	1
Takedowns (landed/att)	0/0	0/0
Submission attempts	0	0
Control time	0:00	0:00

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Ryan Gandra wins	72%	1.20	✓ predicted
Method Ryan Gandra wins by KO/TKO	35%	1.40	✓ predicted
Finish round Finish in Round 1	30%	—	✓ predicted

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Ryan Gandra wins by DEC value	31%	17.00	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	45%	10.00	✗ lost
Ryan Gandra wins by Sub or Decision value	36%	8.25	✗ lost
Ozzy Diaz wins by DEC value	14%	19.00	✗ lost
Ozzy Diaz wins by Sub or Decision value	23%	11.00	✗ lost
Ozzy Diaz wins by SUB	8%	18.00	✗ lost
Ozzy Diaz wins	28%	4.00	✗ lost
Ozzy Diaz wins by KO or Decision	20%	4.75	✗ lost
Ryan Gandra wins by KO or Decision	67%	1.31	✓ won
Ryan Gandra wins	72%	1.20	✓ won
Ozzy Diaz wins by KO or Sub	14%	4.40	✗ lost
Ryan Gandra wins by SUB	5%	11.00	✗ lost
Ryan Gandra wins by KO or Sub	41%	1.27	✓ won
Ryan Gandra wins by KO/TKO	35%	1.40	✓ won
Ozzy Diaz wins by KO/TKO	6%	5.10	✗ lost

Edmen Shahbazyan

16-5-0

Winner

Edmen Shahbazyan

Decision (U) · R3

✓ predicted

Brunno Ferreira

15-3-0

▼

Model Prediction

Edmen Shahbazyan ✓ won 78%

KO 49%· Sub 6%· Dec 22%

Brunno Ferreira 22%

KO 10%· Sub 4%· Dec 8%

Actual Fight Stats

	Edmen Shahbazyan	Brunno Ferreira
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	61/110	32/108
Total strikes landed	63	33
Knockdowns	1	0
Takedowns (landed/att)	1/3	0/0
Submission attempts	0	0
Control time	0:00	0:00

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Edmen Shahbazyan wins	78%	1.20	✓ predicted
Method Edmen Shahbazyan wins by KO/TKO value	49%	3.80	missed
Finish round Finish in Round 1	44%	—	missed

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Edmen Shahbazyan wins by SUB	6%	46.00	✗ lost
Edmen Shahbazyan wins by KO or Sub value	56%	3.60	✗ lost
Edmen Shahbazyan wins by KO/TKO value	49%	3.80	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	70%	2.20	✗ lost
Brunno Ferreira wins by Sub or Decision	12%	8.25	✗ lost
Edmen Shahbazyan wins	78%	1.20	✓ won
Edmen Shahbazyan wins by KO or Decision	71%	1.25	✓ won
Brunno Ferreira wins	22%	4.00	✗ lost
Brunno Ferreira wins by DEC	8%	11.00	✗ lost
Brunno Ferreira wins by KO or Decision	18%	4.75	✗ lost
Brunno Ferreira wins by SUB	4%	17.00	✗ lost
Brunno Ferreira wins by KO or Sub	14%	5.10	✗ lost
Brunno Ferreira wins by KO/TKO	10%	6.00	✗ lost
Edmen Shahbazyan wins by Sub or Decision	28%	1.74	✓ won
Fight goes to decision	30%	1.61	✓ won
Edmen Shahbazyan wins by DEC	22%	1.77	✓ won

Casey O'Neill

6-2-0

Winner

Casey O'Neill

Submission · R1

✓ predicted

Eduarda Moura

12-2-0

▼

Model Prediction

Casey O'Neill ✓ won 66%

KO 22%· Sub 6%· Dec 38%

Eduarda Moura 34%

KO 0%· Sub 4%· Dec 30%

Actual Fight Stats

	Casey O'Neill	Eduarda Moura
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	1/4	3/7
Total strikes landed	1	13
Knockdowns	0	0
Takedowns (landed/att)	0/0	0/0
Submission attempts	0	0
Control time	0:00	0:00

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Casey O'Neill wins	66%	1.42	✓ predicted
Method Casey O'Neill wins by Decision	38%	2.18	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	68%	1.52	missed

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Eduarda Moura wins by DEC value	30%	4.80	✗ lost
Casey O'Neill wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	18%	7.50	✗ lost
Eduarda Moura wins by Decision	30%	4.50	✗ lost
Casey O'Neill wins by KO/TKO in R1	9%	14.00	✗ lost
Casey O'Neill wins by KO/TKO	22%	5.60	✗ lost
Eduarda Moura wins by KO or Decision	30%	4.10	✗ lost
Casey O'Neill wins by KO/TKO in R2	9%	13.00	✗ lost
Eduarda Moura wins by Sub or Decision	34%	3.10	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	10%	11.00	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	68%	1.52	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	68%	1.51	✗ lost
Casey O'Neill wins by finish in Round 1	12%	8.50	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO	22%	4.70	✗ lost
Casey O'Neill wins by KO or Sub	28%	3.70	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	9%	11.50	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	71%	1.40	✗ lost
Eduarda Moura wins	34%	2.89	✗ lost
Casey O'Neill wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	12%	8.00	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 2	86%	1.13	✗ lost
Casey O'Neill wins by KO or Decision	60%	1.61	✗ lost
Casey O'Neill wins	66%	1.42	✓ won
Casey O'Neill wins by finish in Round 2	11%	8.50	✗ lost
Casey O'Neill wins in R3+ or by Decision	48%	1.88	✗ lost
Finish before Round 3	27%	3.32	✓ won
Casey O'Neill wins by DEC	38%	2.18	✗ lost
Casey O'Neill wins by Sub or Decision	44%	1.82	✓ won
Under 2.5 rounds	29%	2.75	✓ won
Fight ends before decision	32%	2.42	✓ won
Casey O'Neill wins by finish in Round 1	12%	5.10	✓ won
Casey O'Neill wins by Submission in R1	3%	23.00	✓ won
Casey O'Neill wins by Submission in R1 or R2	5%	12.00	✓ won
Casey O'Neill wins by KO/TKO in R3	4%	16.00	✗ lost
Casey O'Neill wins by SUB	6%	9.00	✓ won
Casey O'Neill wins by Submission in R2	2%	21.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	4%	12.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	4%	13.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	10%	4.40	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission in R1	4%	9.75	✓ won
Casey O'Neill wins by Submission in R2 or R3	3%	13.00	✗ lost
Eduarda Moura wins by Submission in R2	2%	21.00	✗ lost
Eduarda Moura wins by Submission in R1 or R2	4%	9.50	✗ lost
Eduarda Moura wins by SUB	4%	7.50	✗ lost
Eduarda Moura wins by Submission in R1	2%	14.00	✗ lost
Eduarda Moura wins by KO or Sub	4%	5.90	✗ lost
Casey O'Neill wins by Submission in R3	1%	26.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	2%	14.00	✗ lost
Eduarda Moura wins by finish in Round 2	2%	12.00	✗ lost
Eduarda Moura wins by finish in Round 1	2%	9.50	✗ lost
Eduarda Moura wins by Submission in R3	1%	23.00	✗ lost
Eduarda Moura wins by finish in Round 1	2%	7.50	✗ lost

Giga Chikadze

15-6-0

Winner

Joanderson Brito

KO/TKO · R1

✓ predicted

Joanderson Brito

18-5-1

▼

Model Prediction

Giga Chikadze 38%

KO 16%· Sub 2%· Dec 20%

Joanderson Brito ✓ won 62%

KO 20%· Sub 9%· Dec 34%

Actual Fight Stats

	Giga Chikadze	Joanderson Brito
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	7/12	20/27
Total strikes landed	13	24
Knockdowns	0	0
Takedowns (landed/att)	0/0	0/0
Submission attempts	0	0
Control time	0:00	0:00

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Joanderson Brito wins	62%	1.22	✓ predicted
Method Joanderson Brito wins by Decision	34%	3.90	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	53%	2.61	missed

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Giga Chikadze wins by DEC	20%	8.25	✗ lost
Giga Chikadze wins by KO or Decision value	36%	4.60	✗ lost
Giga Chikadze wins value	38%	4.35	✗ lost
Giga Chikadze wins in R3+ or by Decision value	24%	6.50	✗ lost
Giga Chikadze wins by Sub or Decision	22%	6.75	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	53%	2.70	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	53%	2.61	✗ lost
Giga Chikadze wins by KO/TKO	16%	8.50	✗ lost
Giga Chikadze wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	12%	11.00	✗ lost
Joanderson Brito wins by DEC	34%	3.90	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO value	36%	3.60	✓ won
Over 2.5 rounds	59%	2.20	✗ lost
Joanderson Brito wins by KO or Decision value	54%	2.40	✓ won
Joanderson Brito wins by Decision	34%	3.75	✗ lost
Giga Chikadze wins by KO/TKO in R1	7%	18.00	✗ lost
Giga Chikadze wins by KO or Sub	18%	7.00	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 3	64%	1.88	✗ lost
Giga Chikadze wins by KO/TKO in R2	5%	23.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	12%	10.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	16%	7.50	✓ won
Giga Chikadze wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	9%	13.00	✗ lost
Joanderson Brito wins by KO/TKO	20%	5.60	✓ won
Joanderson Brito wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	16%	7.00	✓ won
Joanderson Brito wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	11%	9.25	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	8%	12.50	✗ lost
Joanderson Brito wins by KO/TKO in R2	7%	15.00	✗ lost
Joanderson Brito wins by KO/TKO in R1	9%	11.00	✓ won
Giga Chikadze wins by KO/TKO in R3	4%	26.00	✗ lost
Joanderson Brito wins by KO/TKO in R3	5%	19.00	✗ lost
Giga Chikadze wins by finish in Round 1	8%	10.50	✗ lost
Joanderson Brito wins	62%	1.22	✓ won
Giga Chikadze wins by finish in Round 2	6%	12.00	✗ lost
Giga Chikadze wins by finish in Round 1	8%	9.00	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	47%	1.45	✓ won
Under 2.5 rounds	41%	1.61	✓ won
Finish before Round 3	36%	1.85	✓ won
Joanderson Brito wins by Sub or Decision	42%	1.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	11%	5.30	✗ lost
Giga Chikadze wins by Submission in R1	1%	61.00	✗ lost
Giga Chikadze wins by Submission in R1 or R2	1%	34.00	✗ lost
Giga Chikadze wins by SUB	2%	26.00	✗ lost
Joanderson Brito wins by KO or Sub	29%	1.69	✓ won
Joanderson Brito wins by finish in Round 2	9%	5.00	✗ lost
Giga Chikadze wins by Submission in R2	1%	71.00	✗ lost
Joanderson Brito wins by finish in Round 1	13%	3.50	✓ won
Giga Chikadze wins by Submission in R2 or R3	1%	41.00	✗ lost
Joanderson Brito wins by finish in Round 1	13%	2.20	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission	10%	2.18	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	5%	4.70	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	3%	6.25	✗ lost
Joanderson Brito wins by SUB	9%	2.30	✗ lost
Joanderson Brito wins by Submission in R1 or R2	7%	3.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	2%	8.00	✗ lost
Joanderson Brito wins by Submission in R2	3%	6.75	✗ lost
Joanderson Brito wins by Submission in R1	4%	5.00	✗ lost
Joanderson Brito wins by Submission in R3	2%	8.50	✗ lost