New here? How to read these predictions
- Win probability
- Our model's estimate that a fighter wins — e.g. 72% means we'd expect them to win roughly 7 of 10 times.
- Confidence interval (CI)
- The range the true probability likely falls in. Wider = less certain. A pick'em fight has a wide band; a clear favourite a narrow one.
- Edge
- How much higher our probability is than the bookmaker's implied odds. Positive edge = we think it's underpriced.
- EV (expected value)
- Average return if you placed the bet many times. +15% EV means about 15c profit per $1 staked, on average.
- Risk tiers
- Conservative leans to safe favourites, Balanced blends, Aggressive chases bigger-odds longshots. Pick what suits you.
- Edge badges
- Strong / Solid / Slight edge rank how much value the model sees — and how big a stake it suggests. They're not a promise the bet wins.
Tap any fight row to open the full model breakdown. New to the model itself? How it works · FAQ.
UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2
⏱ Sun 20 Sep · 11:00 AM AEST
17-2-0
Freestyle
Orthodox
6-fight win streak
Fighter Statistics
| Pantoja | Van | |
|---|---|---|
| Career record | — | 17-2-0 |
| Last 3 win % | — | 100% |
| Finish rate | — | 40% |
| KO/TKO rate | — | 40% |
| Sub rate | — | 0% |
| Sig strikes / min ↑ | — | 27.8 |
Predicted Outcomes
Win probability and method/round breakdowns appear here once the matrix processes this card.
Tip: stats above are computed from each fighter's full UFC history. Compare KO/TKO rate vs sub rate to gauge likely method even before predictions land.
⏱ Sun 20 Sep · 11:00 AM AEST
13-2-0
Striker
Orthodox
1 win
Fighter Statistics
| Tsarukyan | Ruffy | |
|---|---|---|
| Career record | — | 13-2-0 |
| Last 3 win % | — | 67% |
| Finish rate | — | 80% |
| KO/TKO rate | — | 60% |
| Sub rate | — | 0% |
| Sig strikes / min ↑ | — | 8.1 |
Predicted Outcomes
Win probability and method/round breakdowns appear here once the matrix processes this card.
Tip: stats above are computed from each fighter's full UFC history. Compare KO/TKO rate vs sub rate to gauge likely method even before predictions land.
⏱ Sun 20 Sep · 11:00 AM AEST
16-4-1
Striker
Orthodox
2-fight win streak
Fighter Statistics
| Pitbull | Choi | |
|---|---|---|
| Career record | — | 16-4-1 |
| Last 3 win % | — | 67% |
| Finish rate | — | 78% |
| KO/TKO rate | — | 78% |
| Sub rate | — | 0% |
| Sig strikes / min ↑ | — | 11.9 |
Predicted Outcomes
Win probability and method/round breakdowns appear here once the matrix processes this card.
Tip: stats above are computed from each fighter's full UFC history. Compare KO/TKO rate vs sub rate to gauge likely method even before predictions land.
17-6-1
Freestyle
Orthodox
1 loss
⏱ Sun 20 Sep · 11:00 AM AEST
8-0-0
Judo
Orthodox
2-fight win streak
Fighter Statistics
| Menifield | Baraniewski | |
|---|---|---|
| Career record | 17-6-1 | 8-0-0 |
| Last 3 win % | 67% | 100% |
| Finish rate | 59% | 100% |
| KO/TKO rate | 47% | 100% |
| Sub rate | 12% | 0% |
| Sig strikes / min ↑ | 9.0 | 16.1 |
Predicted Outcomes
Win probability and method/round breakdowns appear here once the matrix processes this card.
Tip: stats above are computed from each fighter's full UFC history. Compare KO/TKO rate vs sub rate to gauge likely method even before predictions land.
3-0-0
Wrestler
nan
⏱ Sun 20 Sep · 9:00 AM AEST
Fighter Statistics
| Steveson | Sharaf | |
|---|---|---|
| Career record | 3-0-0 | — |
| Last 3 win % | — | — |
| Finish rate | — | — |
| KO/TKO rate | — | — |
| Sub rate | — | — |
| Sig strikes / min ↑ | — | — |
Predicted Outcomes
Win probability and method/round breakdowns appear here once the matrix processes this card.
Tip: stats above are computed from each fighter's full UFC history. Compare KO/TKO rate vs sub rate to gauge likely method even before predictions land.
Fighter Statistics
| Vera | Jourdain | |
|---|---|---|
| Career record | — | 18-8-1 |
| Last 3 win % | — | 100% |
| Finish rate | — | 47% |
| KO/TKO rate | — | 18% |
| Sub rate | — | 24% |
| Sig strikes / min ↑ | — | 14.8 |
Predicted Outcomes
Win probability and method/round breakdowns appear here once the matrix processes this card.
Tip: stats above are computed from each fighter's full UFC history. Compare KO/TKO rate vs sub rate to gauge likely method even before predictions land.
15-10-0
Southpaw
7-fight loss streak
⏱ Sun 20 Sep · 9:00 AM AEST
Fighter Statistics
| Tuivasa | Despaigne | |
|---|---|---|
| Career record | 15-10-0 | — |
| Last 3 win % | 0% | — |
| Finish rate | 72% | — |
| KO/TKO rate | 56% | — |
| Sub rate | 0% | — |
| Sig strikes / min ↑ | 8.1 | — |
Predicted Outcomes
Win probability and method/round breakdowns appear here once the matrix processes this card.
Tip: stats above are computed from each fighter's full UFC history. Compare KO/TKO rate vs sub rate to gauge likely method even before predictions land.
16-5-0
MMA
Orthodox
3-fight win streak
⏱ Sun 20 Sep · 9:00 AM AEST
15-3-0
Grappler
Orthodox
1 loss
Fighter Statistics
| Shahbazyan | Ferreira | |
|---|---|---|
| Career record | 16-5-0 | 15-3-0 |
| Last 3 win % | 100% | 67% |
| Finish rate | 79% | 89% |
| KO/TKO rate | 64% | 56% |
| Sub rate | 7% | 22% |
| Sig strikes / min ↑ | 8.8 | 6.3 |
Predicted Outcomes
Win probability and method/round breakdowns appear here once the matrix processes this card.
Tip: stats above are computed from each fighter's full UFC history. Compare KO/TKO rate vs sub rate to gauge likely method even before predictions land.
15-6-0
Karate
Orthodox
3-fight loss streak
⏱ Sun 20 Sep · 7:00 AM AEST
18-5-1
Striker
Orthodox
1 win
Fighter Statistics
| Chikadze | Brito | |
|---|---|---|
| Career record | 15-6-0 | 18-5-1 |
| Last 3 win % | 0% | 33% |
| Finish rate | 33% | 56% |
| KO/TKO rate | 33% | 33% |
| Sub rate | 0% | 22% |
| Sig strikes / min ↑ | 3.8 | 5.5 |
Predicted Outcomes
Win probability and method/round breakdowns appear here once the matrix processes this card.
Tip: stats above are computed from each fighter's full UFC history. Compare KO/TKO rate vs sub rate to gauge likely method even before predictions land.
10-3-0
MMA
Orthodox
1 win
⏱ Sun 20 Sep · 7:00 AM AEST
9-1-0
MMA
Orthodox
1 win
Fighter Statistics
| Diaz | Gandra | |
|---|---|---|
| Career record | 10-3-0 | 9-1-0 |
| Last 3 win % | 50% | 100% |
| Finish rate | 50% | 100% |
| KO/TKO rate | 50% | 100% |
| Sub rate | 0% | 0% |
| Sig strikes / min ↑ | 19.4 | 20.5 |
Predicted Outcomes
Win probability and method/round breakdowns appear here once the matrix processes this card.
Tip: stats above are computed from each fighter's full UFC history. Compare KO/TKO rate vs sub rate to gauge likely method even before predictions land.
The matrix has identified no value yet — SportsBet odds may not be published.