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⟁ Past Events — Predictions vs. Actual Results
71 of 99
confident picks landed — when the model gives a fighter 70%+ it has been right 72% of the time
15–26
betting record with the same amount on every recommended bet (-13.7 units — early days, small sample)
Bankroll curve
+$361
2026-06-15
peak $460 · trough $-968
2026-10-10
UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 8/12 · 67%
2026-09-19
Model Prediction
Alexandre Pantoja
26%
KO 4%·
Sub 11%·
Dec 11%
Joshua Van
✓ won
74%
KO 43%·
Sub 4%·
Dec 26%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Joshua Van wins value | 74% | 1.64 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Joshua Van wins by KO/TKO | 43% | 2.70 | missed |
| Finish round Finish in Round 2 | 24% | — | missed |
Model Prediction
Arman Tsarukyan
✓ won
78%
KO 33%·
Sub 13%·
Dec 33%
Mauricio Ruffy
22%
KO 16%·
Sub 0%·
Dec 6%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Arman Tsarukyan wins | 78% | 1.32 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Arman Tsarukyan wins by KO/TKO | 33% | 3.30 | ✓ predicted |
| Finish round Finish in Round 1 | 23% | — | ✓ predicted |
Model Prediction
Patricio Pitbull
✓ won
10%
KO 1%·
Sub 1%·
Dec 7%
Dooho Choi
90%
KO 23%·
Sub 6%·
Dec 62%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Dooho Choi wins value | 90% | 1.34 | missed |
| Method Dooho Choi wins by Decision value | 62% | 2.85 | missed |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 69% | 1.94 | missed |
Model Prediction
Gable Steveson
93%
KO 77%·
Sub 4%·
Dec 11%
Sean Sharaf
✓ won
7%
KO 0%·
Sub 7%·
Dec 0%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Gable Steveson wins | 93% | 1.06 | missed |
| Method Gable Steveson wins by KO/TKO | 77% | 1.25 | missed |
| Finish round Finish in Round 1 | 49% | — | ✓ predicted |
Model Prediction
Alonzo Menifield
✓ won
27%
KO 8%·
Sub 5%·
Dec 14%
Iwo Baraniewski
73%
KO 57%·
Sub 4%·
Dec 12%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Iwo Baraniewski wins | 73% | 1.32 | missed |
| Method Iwo Baraniewski wins by KO/TKO | 57% | 1.67 | missed |
| Finish round Finish in Round 1 | 45% | — | missed |
Model Prediction
Marlon Vera
✓ won
34%
KO 7%·
Sub 10%·
Dec 17%
Charles Jourdain
66%
KO 20%·
Sub 9%·
Dec 37%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Charles Jourdain wins value | 66% | 4.00 | missed |
| Method Charles Jourdain wins by Decision value | 37% | 5.10 | missed |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 54% | 4.00 | missed |
Model Prediction
Tai Tuivasa
39%
KO 25%·
Sub 2%·
Dec 12%
Robelis Despaigne
✓ won
61%
KO 39%·
Sub 3%·
Dec 19%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Robelis Despaigne wins | 61% | 1.22 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Robelis Despaigne wins by KO/TKO | 39% | 1.37 | missed |
| Finish round Finish in Round 1 | 35% | — | missed |
MA
11-5-0
Winner
Michael Aswell Jr.
Decision (S) · R3
✓ predicted
JY
9-1-0
Model Prediction
Michael Aswell Jr.
✓ won
58%
KO 32%·
Sub 4%·
Dec 22%
JooSang Yoo
42%
KO 8%·
Sub 3%·
Dec 30%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Michael Aswell Jr. wins | 58% | 1.60 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Michael Aswell Jr. wins by KO/TKO value | 32% | 9.25 | missed |
| Finish round Finish in Round 1 | 26% | — | missed |
Model Prediction
Ozzy Diaz
28%
KO 6%·
Sub 8%·
Dec 14%
Ryan Gandra
✓ won
72%
KO 35%·
Sub 5%·
Dec 31%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Ryan Gandra wins | 72% | 1.20 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Ryan Gandra wins by KO/TKO | 35% | 1.40 | ✓ predicted |
| Finish round Finish in Round 1 | 30% | — | ✓ predicted |
16-5-0
Winner
Edmen Shahbazyan
Decision (U) · R3
✓ predicted
15-3-0
Model Prediction
Edmen Shahbazyan
✓ won
78%
KO 49%·
Sub 6%·
Dec 22%
Brunno Ferreira
22%
KO 10%·
Sub 4%·
Dec 8%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Edmen Shahbazyan wins | 78% | 1.20 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Edmen Shahbazyan wins by KO/TKO value | 49% | 3.80 | missed |
| Finish round Finish in Round 1 | 44% | — | missed |
Model Prediction
Casey O'Neill
✓ won
66%
KO 22%·
Sub 6%·
Dec 38%
Eduarda Moura
34%
KO 0%·
Sub 4%·
Dec 30%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Casey O'Neill wins | 66% | 1.42 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Casey O'Neill wins by Decision | 38% | 2.18 | missed |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 68% | 1.52 | missed |
Model Prediction
Giga Chikadze
38%
KO 16%·
Sub 2%·
Dec 20%
Joanderson Brito
✓ won
62%
KO 20%·
Sub 9%·
Dec 34%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Joanderson Brito wins | 62% | 1.22 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Joanderson Brito wins by Decision | 34% | 3.90 | missed |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 53% | 2.61 | missed |