UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld — Results & Recap

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⟁ Past Events — Predictions vs. Actual Results

120 / 168

Correct Picks

71.4% accuracy · 16 events

5 / 8

Parlay Legs

4 parlays · −$221

−$607

Running P&L · opening

$1000 / event · Conservative · Kelly-weighted · closing: +$369

47 of 59 confident picks landed — when the model gives a fighter 70%+ it has been right 80% of the time

10–19 betting record with the same amount on every recommended bet (-11.1 units — early days, small sample)

Bankroll curve $1000 per event · Conservative tier · opening odds −$607

2026-06-15 peak $139 · trough $-662 2026-08-15

UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry 2026-08-15 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · −$80

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Gillian Robertson wins	Mackenzie Dern vs Gillian Robertson	2.72	$80	✗ lost −$80

UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld 2026-08-08 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · −$75

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Louie Sutherland wins	Henrique Da Silva Lopes vs Louie Sutherland	1.63	—	⋯ pending
Guilherme Pat wins	Steven Asplund vs Guilherme Pat	3.02	$49	✗ lost −$49
Jessie Rosas wins	Miles Johns vs Jessie Rosas	2.33	—	⋯ pending
Amanda Lemos wins	Amanda Lemos vs Alexia Thainara	3.02	$27	✗ lost −$27

UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez 2026-08-01 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · −$56

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Mateusz Rebecki wins	Kyle Prepolec vs Mateusz Rebecki	1.18	$80	✓ won +$14
Oban Elliott wins	Oban Elliott vs Michael Oliveira	3.57	$80	✗ lost −$80
Bogdan Grad wins	Dennis Buzukja vs Bogdan Grad	1.52	$62	✓ won +$32
Fight goes to Decision	Daniel Rodriguez vs Uros Medic	7.25	$22	✗ lost −$22

UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov 2026-07-25 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · −$102

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Nurullo Aliev wins	Mike Davis vs Nurullo Aliev	1.54	$80	✓ won +$43
Tyrell Fortune wins	Rizvan Kuniev vs Tyrell Fortune	3.34	$80	✗ lost −$80
Damian Rzepecki wins	Magomed Zaynukov vs Damian Rzepecki	3.73	$43	✗ lost −$43
Dustin Jacoby wins	Dustin Jacoby vs Muhammad Said	1.59	$23	✗ lost −$23

UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman 2026-07-18 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · +$38

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Chase Hooper wins	Chase Hooper vs Mitch Ramirez	1.27	$80	✓ won +$22
Christian Leroy Duncan wins	Jared Cannonier vs Christian Leroy Duncan	1.32	$80	✓ won +$26
Dricus Du Plessis wins by SUB	Kamaru Usman vs Dricus Du Plessis	9.25	$55	✗ lost −$55
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani wins	Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs Seokhyeon Ko	2.66	$28	✓ won +$46

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 2026-07-11 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly · −$200

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Elisha Ellison wins	Gable Steveson vs Elisha Ellison	10.00	$138	✗ lost −$138
Benoit Saint Denis wins	Paddy Pimblett vs Benoit Saint Denis	1.53	$62	✗ lost −$62

UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres 2026-06-27 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly · −$216

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Manuel Torres wins	Rafael Fiziev vs Manuel Torres	1.96	$115	✗ lost −$115
Eric Nolan wins by Sub or Decision	Eric Nolan vs Farman Hasanov	5.30	$70	✗ lost −$70
Matheus Camilo wins	Nazim Sadykhov vs Matheus Camilo	2.99	$48	✓ won +$95
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	Julius Walker vs Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev	3.92	$44	✗ lost −$44
Fight reaches Round 2	Julius Walker vs Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev	2.17	$44	✗ lost −$44
Michel Pereira wins	Michel Pereira vs Shara Magomedov	3.82	$37	✗ lost −$37

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi 2 2026-06-20 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly · +$109

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Luana Santos wins	Karol Rosa vs Luana Santos	1.97	$157	✓ won +$152
Kyoji Horiguchi wins by KO/TKO	Kyoji Horiguchi vs Manel Kape	11.50	$43	✗ lost −$43

UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje 2026-06-15 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly · −$26

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Josh Hokit wins by KO or Decision	Derrick Lewis vs Josh Hokit	1.78	$73	✓ won +$57
Ilia Topuria wins by DEC	Justin Gaethje vs Ilia Topuria	13.00	$57	✗ lost −$57
Steve Garcia wins	Steve Garcia vs Diego Lopes	2.48	$52	✗ lost −$52
Bo Nickal wins by KO or Decision	Kyle Daukaus vs Bo Nickal	1.71	$38	✓ won +$27

5 / 8

Legs landed

62.5% of picks

1 / 4

Parlays won

every leg has to land

−$221

Profit

$100 on each

Only 4 parlays settled so far — far too few to judge the profit either way. On 93 past cards, parlays picked this way landed 61% of the time.

UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez 2026-08-01 · +$79

2-leg @ 1.79 Mateusz Rebecki wins @ 1.18Bogdan Grad wins @ 1.52 ✓ WON +$79

UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov 2026-07-25 · −$100

2-leg @ 2.45 Dustin Jacoby wins @ 1.59Nurullo Aliev wins @ 1.54 ✗ LOST −$100

UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman 2026-07-18 · −$100

2-leg @ 2.24 Christian Leroy Duncan wins @ 1.32Alvin Hines wins @ 1.70 ✗ LOST −$100

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 2026-07-11 · −$100

2-leg @ 1.99 Damian Pinas wins @ 1.46Fight reaches Round 2 @ 1.36 ✗ LOST −$100

UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld 9/10 · 90%

2026-08-08

Mateusz Gamrot

26-4-0

Winner

Quillan Salkilld

SUB · R1

✓ predicted

Quillan Salkilld

12-1-0

▼

Model Prediction

Mateusz Gamrot 36%

KO 10%· Sub 4%· Dec 22%

Quillan Salkilld ✓ won 64%

KO 25%· Sub 17%· Dec 22%

Actual Fight Stats

	Mateusz Gamrot	Quillan Salkilld
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	3/10	10/24
Total strikes landed	3	20
Knockdowns	0	0
Takedowns (landed/att)	0/1	1/1
Submission attempts	2	1
Control time	0:20	2:02

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Quillan Salkilld wins	64%	1.68	✓ predicted
Method Quillan Salkilld wins by KO/TKO	25%	3.50	missed
Finish round Finish in Round 1	23%	5.00	✓ predicted

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	62%	11.00	✗ lost
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	62%	6.00	✗ lost
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	62%	4.33	✗ lost
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	62%	3.30	✗ lost
Mateusz Gamrot wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	7%	21.00	✗ lost
Mateusz Gamrot wins by KO/TKO in R1	4%	34.00	✗ lost
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	62%	2.24	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	14%	8.50	✗ lost
Quillan Salkilld wins by DEC	22%	5.50	✗ lost
Finish before Round 3	38%	3.09	✓ won
Mateusz Gamrot wins by KO/TKO	10%	11.50	✗ lost
Mateusz Gamrot wins by KO/TKO in R2	3%	41.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 1	23%	5.00	✓ won
Quillan Salkilld wins by Sub or Decision	39%	2.90	✓ won
Quillan Salkilld wins by Submission in R1 or R2	12%	9.50	✓ won
Quillan Salkilld wins	64%	1.68	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	10%	11.00	✗ lost
Quillan Salkilld wins by Submission in R1	7%	15.00	✓ won
Quillan Salkilld wins by finish in Round 2	12%	9.00	✗ lost
Quillan Salkilld wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	17%	6.25	✗ lost
Quillan Salkilld wins by KO or Decision	46%	2.25	✗ lost
Quillan Salkilld wins by Submission in R2	5%	21.00	✗ lost
Mateusz Gamrot wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	4%	23.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	35%	2.85	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	44%	2.26	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	57%	1.72	✗ lost
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	62%	1.60	✗ lost
Quillan Salkilld wins by SUB	17%	5.60	✓ won
Quillan Salkilld wins by KO/TKO in R1	10%	9.75	✗ lost
Quillan Salkilld wins in R4+ or by Decision	29%	3.40	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	44%	2.20	✗ lost
Quillan Salkilld wins by KO or Sub	42%	2.25	✓ won
Mateusz Gamrot wins by KO or Decision	32%	2.90	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	56%	1.59	✓ won
Quillan Salkilld wins by KO/TKO in R2	7%	13.00	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 5	47%	1.91	✗ lost
Quillan Salkilld wins by KO/TKO	25%	3.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	9%	10.00	✓ won
Quillan Salkilld wins by Submission in R2 or R3	8%	11.50	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	43%	2.00	✓ won
Quillan Salkilld significant strikes over 19.5	78%	1.10	✗ lost
Mateusz Gamrot significant strikes over 19.5	75%	1.14	✗ lost
Quillan Salkilld wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	11%	7.75	✗ lost
Quillan Salkilld takedowns over 0.5	49%	1.67	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 49.5	70%	1.16	✗ lost
Mateusz Gamrot wins	36%	2.20	✗ lost
Mateusz Gamrot wins by DEC	22%	3.60	✗ lost
Quillan Salkilld significant strikes over 29.5	63%	1.22	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 1.5	69%	1.11	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	6%	12.50	✗ lost
Mateusz Gamrot wins in R4+ or by Decision	24%	2.95	✗ lost
Mateusz Gamrot takedowns over 0.5	67%	1.07	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	21%	3.30	✓ won
Mateusz Gamrot wins by KO/TKO in R3	2%	46.00	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 2.5	58%	1.21	✗ lost
Mateusz Gamrot wins by KO/TKO in R3 or R4	3%	26.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 59.5	57%	1.22	✗ lost
Mateusz Gamrot wins by KO or Sub	14%	4.80	✗ lost
Quillan Salkilld significant strikes over 39.5	48%	1.36	✗ lost
Mateusz Gamrot wins by Sub or Decision	26%	2.50	✗ lost
Mateusz Gamrot takedowns over 1.5	50%	1.30	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	5%	12.00	✗ lost
Mateusz Gamrot significant strikes over 29.5	49%	1.28	✗ lost
Quillan Salkilld wins by finish in Round 3	6%	9.75	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 3.5	46%	1.32	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 69.5	47%	1.28	✗ lost
Quillan Salkilld wins by Submission in R3 or R4	5%	13.00	✗ lost
Total knockdowns over 0.5	36%	1.63	✗ lost
Quillan Salkilld wins by KO/TKO in R3 or R4	7%	9.00	✗ lost
Quillan Salkilld takedowns over 1.5	28%	2.10	✗ lost
Mateusz Gamrot wins by KO/TKO in R4	1%	51.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 79.5	42%	1.36	✗ lost
Quillan Salkilld significant strikes over 49.5	37%	1.53	✗ lost
Mateusz Gamrot takedowns over 2.5	39%	1.45	✗ lost
Quillan Salkilld wins by Submission in R3	3%	21.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R4	4%	14.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 89.5	36%	1.45	✗ lost
Quillan Salkilld wins by KO/TKO in R3	4%	14.00	✗ lost
Mateusz Gamrot significant strikes over 39.5	36%	1.45	✗ lost
Quillan Salkilld wins by Submission in R4	2%	26.00	✗ lost
Quillan Salkilld wins by KO/TKO in R4	3%	18.00	✗ lost
Quillan Salkilld wins by Submission in R4 or R5	3%	17.00	✗ lost
Mateusz Gamrot wins by KO/TKO in R4 or R5	2%	29.00	✗ lost
Quillan Salkilld wins by KO/TKO in R4 or R5	4%	11.50	✗ lost
Quillan Salkilld takedowns over 2.5	18%	2.63	✗ lost
Mateusz Gamrot takedowns over 3.5	28%	1.67	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 99.5	31%	1.53	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 4.5	31%	1.51	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	3%	14.00	✗ lost
Quillan Salkilld significant strikes over 59.5	26%	1.72	✗ lost
Quillan Salkilld significant strikes over 69.5	22%	1.91	✗ lost
Quillan Salkilld significant strikes over 79.5	18%	2.25	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 109.5	25%	1.64	✗ lost
Quillan Salkilld significant strikes over 89.5	15%	2.60	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R4	2%	16.00	✗ lost
Mateusz Gamrot significant strikes over 49.5	24%	1.62	✗ lost
Mateusz Gamrot wins by Submission in R1	2%	23.00	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 5.5	21%	1.72	✗ lost
Mateusz Gamrot wins by Submission in R1 or R2	3%	13.00	✗ lost
Quillan Salkilld significant strikes over 99.5	12%	3.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 119.5	20%	1.75	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R5	2%	18.00	✗ lost
Quillan Salkilld takedowns over 3.5	10%	3.40	✗ lost
Quillan Salkilld wins by Submission in R5	1%	34.00	✗ lost
Mateusz Gamrot significant strikes over 59.5	16%	1.91	✗ lost
Quillan Salkilld wins by KO/TKO in R5	1%	23.00	✗ lost
Mateusz Gamrot takedowns over 4.5	15%	2.00	✗ lost
Mateusz Gamrot wins by Submission in R2	1%	26.00	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 6.5	14%	1.98	✗ lost
Quillan Salkilld significant strikes over 109.5	8%	3.40	✗ lost
Mateusz Gamrot wins by SUB	4%	7.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 129.5	14%	1.87	✗ lost
Mateusz Gamrot wins by Submission in R2 or R3	2%	15.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R5	1%	19.00	✗ lost
Mateusz Gamrot significant strikes over 69.5	9%	2.20	✗ lost
Quillan Salkilld significant strikes over 119.5	5%	4.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 139.5	9%	2.02	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 7.5	7%	2.35	✗ lost
Mateusz Gamrot wins by Submission in R3 or R4	1%	16.00	✗ lost
Mateusz Gamrot wins by Submission in R4 or R5	1%	18.00	✗ lost
Quillan Salkilld takedowns over 4.5	2%	4.50	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 149.5	3%	2.15	✗ lost
Quillan Salkilld significant strikes over 129.5	1%	4.50	✗ lost
Mateusz Gamrot significant strikes over 79.5	2%	2.60	✗ lost

Diego Ferreira

19-7-0

Winner

Diego Ferreira

Decision (U) · R3

✓ predicted

Billy Quarantillo

18-7-0

▼

Model Prediction

Diego Ferreira ✓ won 55%

KO 22%· Sub 12%· Dec 21%

Billy Quarantillo 45%

KO 30%· Sub 4%· Dec 12%

Actual Fight Stats

	Diego Ferreira	Billy Quarantillo
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	116/236	73/208
Total strikes landed	124	113
Knockdowns	0	0
Takedowns (landed/att)	4/9	1/3
Submission attempts	0	0
Control time	2:47	1:48

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Diego Ferreira wins	55%	1.55	✓ predicted
Method Diego Ferreira wins by KO/TKO	22%	3.35	missed
Finish round Finish in Round 1	36%	—	missed

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Under 2.5 rounds	63%	2.10	✗ lost
Billy Quarantillo wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	27%	4.70	✗ lost
Billy Quarantillo wins by KO/TKO in R1	16%	7.50	✗ lost
Billy Quarantillo wins by KO/TKO	30%	3.80	✗ lost
Billy Quarantillo wins	45%	2.47	✗ lost
Billy Quarantillo wins by KO or Decision	42%	2.65	✗ lost
Billy Quarantillo wins by KO or Sub	33%	3.30	✗ lost
Billy Quarantillo wins by finish in Round 1	18%	6.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	28%	3.80	✗ lost
Billy Quarantillo wins by KO/TKO in R2	10%	10.00	✗ lost
Finish before Round 2	36%	2.85	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	33%	3.08	✓ won
Diego Ferreira wins by DEC	21%	4.80	✓ won
Fight goes to Decision	33%	2.95	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	18%	5.30	✗ lost
Billy Quarantillo wins in R3+ or by Decision	18%	5.25	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	51%	1.84	✗ lost
Diego Ferreira wins by Decision	21%	4.50	✓ won
Billy Quarantillo wins by finish in Round 2	12%	8.00	✗ lost
Billy Quarantillo wins by Sub or Decision	16%	5.90	✗ lost
Billy Quarantillo wins by DEC	12%	7.50	✗ lost
Billy Quarantillo significant strikes over 19.5	75%	1.20	✓ won
Fight ends before decision	67%	1.34	✗ lost
Diego Ferreira significant strikes over 19.5	76%	1.17	✓ won
Fight reaches Round 2	64%	1.39	✓ won
Diego Ferreira wins by Sub or Decision	33%	2.65	✓ won
Billy Quarantillo wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	14%	6.50	✗ lost
Billy Quarantillo significant strikes over 29.5	64%	1.36	✓ won
Billy Quarantillo takedowns over 0.5	48%	1.80	✓ won
Diego Ferreira wins by KO or Decision	42%	2.05	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 49.5	68%	1.26	✓ won
Diego Ferreira significant strikes over 29.5	63%	1.36	✓ won
Diego Ferreira wins	55%	1.55	✓ won
Billy Quarantillo significant strikes over 39.5	53%	1.57	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 59.5	62%	1.35	✓ won
Diego Ferreira wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	19%	4.25	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 0.5	67%	1.22	✓ won
Diego Ferreira significant strikes over 39.5	49%	1.62	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 69.5	55%	1.45	✓ won
Diego Ferreira wins by KO/TKO in R1	12%	6.50	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 79.5	49%	1.56	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 89.5	44%	1.69	✓ won
Billy Quarantillo wins by finish in Round 1	18%	4.10	✗ lost
Billy Quarantillo takedowns over 1.5	29%	2.50	✗ lost
Billy Quarantillo wins by Submission in R1 or R2	3%	23.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	9%	8.50	✗ lost
Diego Ferreira wins by KO or Sub	34%	2.15	✗ lost
Diego Ferreira wins by KO/TKO in R2	8%	9.50	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 1.5	49%	1.48	✓ won
Diego Ferreira wins by KO/TKO	22%	3.35	✗ lost
Diego Ferreira wins by Submission in R1 or R2	11%	6.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	16%	4.50	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 99.5	39%	1.83	✓ won
Diego Ferreira significant strikes over 49.5	37%	1.91	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission in R2	6%	12.00	✗ lost
Billy Quarantillo wins by SUB	4%	19.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 109.5	34%	1.98	✓ won
Diego Ferreira wins by Submission in R1	7%	10.00	✗ lost
Diego Ferreira wins by SUB	12%	5.40	✗ lost
Billy Quarantillo significant strikes over 49.5	36%	1.83	✓ won
Billy Quarantillo wins by Submission in R1	2%	34.00	✗ lost
Billy Quarantillo wins by Submission in R2	1%	51.00	✗ lost
Diego Ferreira takedowns over 0.5	38%	1.67	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 119.5	29%	2.15	✓ won
Diego Ferreira wins by Submission in R2	4%	14.00	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	37%	1.66	✓ won
Diego Ferreira wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	10%	6.00	✗ lost
Diego Ferreira significant strikes over 59.5	25%	2.30	✓ won
Billy Quarantillo takedowns over 2.5	17%	3.40	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 129.5	24%	2.35	✓ won
Diego Ferreira significant strikes over 69.5	19%	2.80	✓ won
Diego Ferreira wins by Submission in R2 or R3	6%	9.50	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 2.5	30%	1.78	✓ won
Diego Ferreira wins by finish in Round 1	18%	2.70	✗ lost
Diego Ferreira significant strikes over 79.5	14%	3.50	✓ won
Billy Quarantillo significant strikes over 59.5	21%	2.20	✓ won
Billy Quarantillo wins by KO/TKO in R3	3%	15.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 139.5	17%	2.65	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	5%	7.75	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	7%	5.80	✗ lost
Total knockdowns over 0.5	29%	1.33	✗ lost
Diego Ferreira takedowns over 1.5	17%	2.25	✓ won
Total takedowns over 3.5	17%	2.20	✓ won
Diego Ferreira significant strikes over 89.5	8%	4.33	✓ won
Billy Quarantillo significant strikes over 69.5	12%	2.70	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 149.5	11%	2.95	✓ won
Diego Ferreira wins by KO/TKO in R3	2%	13.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	2%	17.00	✗ lost
Billy Quarantillo takedowns over 3.5	6%	4.50	✗ lost
Diego Ferreira wins by Submission in R3	1%	19.00	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 4.5	6%	2.90	✓ won
Diego Ferreira significant strikes over 99.5	3%	5.50	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 159.5	4%	3.35	✓ won
Billy Quarantillo significant strikes over 79.5	4%	3.30	✗ lost
Diego Ferreira takedowns over 2.5	2%	2.88	✓ won

Darren Elkins

29-12-0

Winner

Yadier del Valle

KO/TKO · R1

✓ predicted

Yadier del Valle

10-1-0

▼

Model Prediction

Darren Elkins 16%

KO 3%· Sub 4%· Dec 9%

Yadier del Valle ✓ won 84%

KO 11%· Sub 29%· Dec 44%

Actual Fight Stats

	Darren Elkins	Yadier del Valle
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	0/2	5/6
Total strikes landed	0	5
Knockdowns	0	1
Takedowns (landed/att)	0/1	0/0
Submission attempts	0	0
Control time	0:00	0:09

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Yadier del Valle wins	84%	1.10	✓ predicted
Method Yadier del Valle wins by Decision value	44%	5.10	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	53%	3.70	missed

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Yadier del Valle wins by DEC value	44%	5.10	✗ lost
Yadier del Valle wins by Decision value	44%	5.00	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	53%	3.70	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	53%	3.60	✗ lost
Darren Elkins takedowns over 1.5	43%	4.20	✗ lost
Darren Elkins takedowns over 2.5	26%	7.00	✗ lost
Darren Elkins significant strikes over 39.5	39%	4.33	✗ lost
Darren Elkins significant strikes over 29.5	55%	3.00	✗ lost
Yadier del Valle wins by Sub or Decision value	73%	2.25	✗ lost
Darren Elkins significant strikes over 59.5	18%	9.00	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 3	62%	2.50	✗ lost
Darren Elkins significant strikes over 49.5	24%	6.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	12%	11.00	✗ lost
Darren Elkins significant strikes over 19.5	70%	1.91	✗ lost
Yadier del Valle wins by Submission in R2	11%	12.00	✗ lost
Darren Elkins takedowns over 0.5	64%	2.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 59.5	62%	2.03	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 49.5	72%	1.75	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 69.5	53%	2.35	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	33%	3.45	✗ lost
Yadier del Valle wins by SUB	29%	3.90	✗ lost
Darren Elkins wins	16%	7.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 79.5	39%	2.80	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	58%	1.90	✗ lost
Darren Elkins wins by Sub or Decision	13%	8.25	✗ lost
Yadier del Valle wins by Submission in R3	6%	19.00	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 1.5	64%	1.66	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 0.5	82%	1.28	✗ lost
Darren Elkins wins by DEC	9%	11.50	✗ lost
Yadier del Valle wins by Submission in R1 or R2	23%	4.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	6%	16.00	✗ lost
Yadier del Valle significant strikes over 19.5	77%	1.33	✗ lost
Darren Elkins wins by Submission in R2	1%	67.00	✗ lost
Darren Elkins wins by KO or Decision	12%	8.25	✗ lost
Yadier del Valle significant strikes over 29.5	60%	1.67	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 2.5	45%	2.12	✗ lost
Darren Elkins wins in R3+ or by Decision	10%	9.50	✗ lost
Yadier del Valle wins	84%	1.10	✓ won
Darren Elkins wins by Submission in R1 or R2	3%	29.00	✗ lost
Darren Elkins wins by SUB	4%	23.00	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 3.5	32%	2.75	✗ lost
Darren Elkins wins by finish in Round 2	3%	34.00	✗ lost
Darren Elkins wins by KO or Sub	7%	12.50	✗ lost
Yadier del Valle significant strikes over 39.5	40%	2.10	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	14%	5.90	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 89.5	25%	3.30	✗ lost
Yadier del Valle wins by KO or Decision	55%	1.47	✓ won
Total takedowns over 4.5	21%	3.80	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 99.5	20%	3.90	✗ lost
Darren Elkins wins by Submission in R1	2%	46.00	✗ lost
Yadier del Valle wins by Submission in R1	12%	6.25	✗ lost
Darren Elkins wins by Submission in R2 or R3	2%	34.00	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	42%	1.80	✓ won
Darren Elkins wins by KO/TKO in R2	1%	67.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 109.5	16%	4.60	✗ lost
Yadier del Valle takedowns over 0.5	44%	1.62	✗ lost
Yadier del Valle wins by finish in Round 2	15%	4.50	✗ lost
Darren Elkins wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	2%	29.00	✗ lost
Darren Elkins wins by KO/TKO	3%	23.00	✗ lost
Yadier del Valle significant strikes over 49.5	23%	2.80	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 5.5	13%	5.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	9%	6.75	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 119.5	11%	5.50	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	47%	1.25	✓ won
Darren Elkins wins by KO/TKO in R1	1%	46.00	✗ lost
Darren Elkins wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	2%	34.00	✗ lost
Finish before Round 3	38%	1.49	✓ won
Yadier del Valle significant strikes over 59.5	15%	3.60	✗ lost
Darren Elkins wins by Submission in R3	1%	71.00	✗ lost
Yadier del Valle wins by KO or Sub	40%	1.34	✓ won
Total knockdowns over 0.5	37%	1.37	✓ won
Darren Elkins wins by finish in Round 1	3%	16.00	✗ lost
Yadier del Valle takedowns over 1.5	22%	2.10	✗ lost
Darren Elkins wins by finish in Round 1	3%	15.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 129.5	7%	6.50	✗ lost
Yadier del Valle wins by finish in Round 1	17%	2.25	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	5%	6.25	✗ lost
Yadier del Valle significant strikes over 69.5	7%	4.50	✗ lost
Yadier del Valle wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	6%	4.50	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 6.5	4%	6.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	3%	10.00	✗ lost
Yadier del Valle wins by finish in Round 1	17%	1.59	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO	14%	1.88	✓ won
Yadier del Valle wins by KO/TKO in R2	4%	6.00	✗ lost
Yadier del Valle wins by KO/TKO	11%	1.99	✓ won
Yadier del Valle wins by KO/TKO in R3	2%	9.50	✗ lost
Yadier del Valle wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	9%	2.30	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	6%	3.20	✓ won
Yadier del Valle takedowns over 2.5	6%	2.80	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 139.5	2%	7.75	✗ lost
Yadier del Valle wins by KO/TKO in R1	5%	3.00	✓ won

Amanda Lemos

15-6-1

Winner

Alexia Thainara

Decision (U) · R3

✓ predicted

Alexia Thainara

14-1-0

▼

Model Prediction

Amanda Lemos 38%

KO 17%· Sub 4%· Dec 17%

Alexia Thainara ✓ won 62%

KO 4%· Sub 26%· Dec 32%

Actual Fight Stats

	Amanda Lemos	Alexia Thainara
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	56/100	81/125
Total strikes landed	68	199
Knockdowns	0	0
Takedowns (landed/att)	0/2	2/6
Submission attempts	0	0
Control time	0:22	7:43

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Alexia Thainara wins	62%	1.35	✓ predicted
Method Alexia Thainara wins by Decision	32%	2.05	✓ predicted
Finish round Goes the distance	49%	2.36	✓ predicted

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Amanda Lemos wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	13%	10.50	✗ lost
Amanda Lemos wins by KO/TKO	17%	8.00	✗ lost
Alexia Thainara wins by SUB	26%	5.20	✗ lost
Amanda Lemos wins by KO/TKO in R1	8%	17.00	✗ lost
Alexia Thainara wins by Submission in R1 or R2	20%	6.50	✗ lost
Amanda Lemos wins by KO or Sub	22%	5.90	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	30%	4.20	✗ lost
Finish before Round 3	40%	3.11	✗ lost
Amanda Lemos wins value	38%	3.22	✗ lost
Alexia Thainara wins by Submission in R1	12%	10.50	✗ lost
Amanda Lemos wins by KO or Decision	34%	3.60	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	51%	2.36	✗ lost
Amanda Lemos wins by KO/TKO in R2	6%	21.00	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	46%	2.62	✗ lost
Alexia Thainara wins by Submission in R2	9%	14.00	✗ lost
Amanda Lemos wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	10%	12.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 1	23%	5.10	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	14%	8.50	✗ lost
Total knockdowns over 0.5	37%	3.05	✗ lost
Amanda Lemos wins in R3+ or by Decision	23%	4.80	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	17%	6.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	10%	11.00	✗ lost
Alexia Thainara wins by KO or Sub	30%	3.60	✗ lost
Alexia Thainara wins by Submission in R3	6%	18.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	21%	4.80	✗ lost
Amanda Lemos wins by KO/TKO in R3	4%	26.00	✗ lost
Amanda Lemos wins by DEC	17%	5.90	✗ lost
Amanda Lemos wins by Sub or Decision	21%	4.60	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	11%	8.50	✗ lost
Amanda Lemos significant strikes over 19.5	71%	1.33	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	9%	10.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	7%	14.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 49.5	68%	1.34	✓ won
Alexia Thainara significant strikes over 19.5	75%	1.20	✓ won
Amanda Lemos significant strikes over 29.5	52%	1.72	✓ won
Total takedowns over 0.5	83%	1.07	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 59.5	59%	1.51	✓ won
Fight reaches Round 2	77%	1.14	✓ won
Alexia Thainara wins by Sub or Decision	58%	1.51	✓ won
Amanda Lemos significant strikes over 39.5	35%	2.50	✓ won
Alexia Thainara significant strikes over 29.5	60%	1.45	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	7%	12.50	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 69.5	49%	1.74	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 79.5	42%	2.05	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 89.5	34%	2.45	✓ won
Alexia Thainara wins	62%	1.35	✓ won
Amanda Lemos significant strikes over 49.5	21%	4.00	✓ won
Alexia Thainara significant strikes over 39.5	44%	1.83	✓ won
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	60%	1.34	✓ won
Total takedowns over 1.5	66%	1.21	✓ won
Alexia Thainara takedowns over 0.5	67%	1.17	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 99.5	27%	2.95	✓ won
Over 2.5 rounds	54%	1.44	✓ won
Fight goes to Decision	49%	1.54	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	5%	16.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 109.5	20%	3.60	✓ won
Alexia Thainara takedowns over 1.5	52%	1.36	✓ won
Amanda Lemos wins by SUB	4%	16.00	✗ lost
Alexia Thainara wins in R3+ or by Decision	37%	1.83	✓ won
Alexia Thainara significant strikes over 49.5	28%	2.40	✓ won
Amanda Lemos wins by Submission in R1	2%	34.00	✗ lost
Alexia Thainara wins by DEC	32%	2.05	✓ won
Total takedowns over 2.5	47%	1.40	✗ lost
Amanda Lemos wins by Submission in R1 or R2	3%	19.00	✗ lost
Alexia Thainara significant strikes over 59.5	20%	3.20	✓ won
Alexia Thainara wins by KO or Decision	36%	1.75	✓ won
Amanda Lemos significant strikes over 59.5	10%	6.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 119.5	14%	4.40	✓ won
Amanda Lemos wins by Submission in R2	1%	41.00	✗ lost
Alexia Thainara significant strikes over 69.5	13%	4.33	✓ won
Amanda Lemos wins by Submission in R2 or R3	2%	23.00	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 3.5	31%	1.63	✗ lost
Amanda Lemos wins by Submission in R3	1%	51.00	✗ lost
Alexia Thainara takedowns over 2.5	30%	1.62	✗ lost
Amanda Lemos takedowns over 0.5	24%	2.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 129.5	7%	5.50	✓ won
Alexia Thainara significant strikes over 79.5	6%	6.00	✓ won
Amanda Lemos takedowns over 1.5	11%	3.50	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 4.5	18%	2.00	✗ lost
Alexia Thainara wins by KO/TKO	4%	9.50	✗ lost
Alexia Thainara wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	3%	12.00	✗ lost
Alexia Thainara wins by KO/TKO in R1	2%	19.00	✗ lost
Alexia Thainara wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	2%	15.00	✗ lost
Alexia Thainara wins by KO/TKO in R2	1%	23.00	✗ lost
Alexia Thainara wins by KO/TKO in R3	1%	34.00	✗ lost
Alexia Thainara takedowns over 3.5	13%	1.91	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 5.5	6%	2.40	✗ lost

Billy Ray Goff

1-3-0

Winner

Ty Miller

KO/TKO · R3

✓ predicted

Ty Miller

7-0-0

▼

Model Prediction

Billy Ray Goff 35%

KO 21%· Sub 2%· Dec 12%

Ty Miller ✓ won 65%

KO 29%· Sub 7%· Dec 28%

Actual Fight Stats

	Billy Ray Goff	Ty Miller
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	25/57	133/221
Total strikes landed	35	163
Knockdowns	0	2
Takedowns (landed/att)	0/8	0/0
Submission attempts	0	0
Control time	2:46	1:00

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Ty Miller wins	65%	1.21	✓ predicted
Method Ty Miller wins by KO/TKO	29%	2.20	✓ predicted
Finish round Finish in Round 1	31%	—	missed

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Billy Ray Goff wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2 value	19%	11.00	✗ lost
Billy Ray Goff wins by KO/TKO value	21%	9.25	✗ lost
Billy Ray Goff wins by KO/TKO in R1	11%	17.00	✗ lost
Billy Ray Goff wins by KO/TKO in R2	8%	23.00	✗ lost
Billy Ray Goff wins by KO or Decision value	33%	5.10	✗ lost
Billy Ray Goff wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	10%	16.00	✗ lost
Billy Ray Goff wins value	35%	4.45	✗ lost
Billy Ray Goff wins by KO or Sub	23%	6.50	✗ lost
Billy Ray Goff wins in R3+ or by Decision	16%	7.50	✗ lost
Ty Miller wins by Submission in R1 or R2	7%	18.00	✗ lost
Billy Ray Goff wins by finish in Round 1	12%	10.00	✗ lost
Billy Ray Goff wins by DEC	12%	9.50	✗ lost
Ty Miller wins by Submission in R1	4%	29.00	✗ lost
Finish before Round 3	53%	2.00	✗ lost
Ty Miller wins by SUB	7%	14.00	✗ lost
Billy Ray Goff wins by finish in Round 2	9%	12.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	26%	3.90	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	19%	5.20	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	56%	1.72	—
Ty Miller wins by Submission in R2	3%	34.00	✗ lost
Billy Ray Goff significant strikes over 19.5	78%	1.22	✓ won
Billy Ray Goff wins by finish in Round 1	12%	8.00	✗ lost
Billy Ray Goff significant strikes over 69.5	25%	3.75	✗ lost
Billy Ray Goff significant strikes over 59.5	33%	2.88	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	60%	1.58	✓ won
Billy Ray Goff significant strikes over 29.5	62%	1.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	51%	1.85	✓ won
Billy Ray Goff significant strikes over 49.5	40%	2.30	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	40%	2.28	✗ lost
Billy Ray Goff wins by Sub or Decision	14%	6.75	✗ lost
Billy Ray Goff significant strikes over 79.5	20%	4.50	✗ lost
Ty Miller wins by Sub or Decision	36%	2.50	✗ lost
Billy Ray Goff significant strikes over 89.5	15%	6.00	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	40%	2.20	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 2	69%	1.28	✓ won
Ty Miller significant strikes over 19.5	79%	1.11	✓ won
Billy Ray Goff significant strikes over 39.5	48%	1.83	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	44%	2.00	—
Total significant strikes over 49.5	69%	1.21	✓ won
Ty Miller wins by Submission in R2 or R3	4%	23.00	✗ lost
Ty Miller significant strikes over 29.5	67%	1.22	✓ won
Ty Miller wins by Decision	28%	2.87	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 59.5	63%	1.30	✓ won
Ty Miller wins by DEC	28%	2.85	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 69.5	57%	1.41	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission in R1	5%	17.00	✗ lost
Ty Miller wins	65%	1.21	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission	9%	8.75	✗ lost
Billy Ray Goff significant strikes over 99.5	10%	8.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	3%	23.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 79.5	51%	1.53	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 89.5	45%	1.68	✓ won
Billy Ray Goff wins by KO/TKO in R3	2%	34.00	✗ lost
Ty Miller significant strikes over 39.5	53%	1.40	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 99.5	40%	1.83	✓ won
Ty Miller wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	26%	2.80	✗ lost
Ty Miller wins by KO or Decision	58%	1.27	✓ won
Ty Miller wins by KO or Sub	37%	1.98	✓ won
Ty Miller wins by KO/TKO in R1	15%	4.70	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 109.5	35%	2.02	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 119.5	30%	2.25	✓ won
Ty Miller wins by KO/TKO in R2	11%	6.00	✗ lost
Ty Miller significant strikes over 49.5	40%	1.62	✓ won
Ty Miller wins by KO/TKO	29%	2.20	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 139.5	22%	2.80	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 129.5	25%	2.50	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 149.5	20%	3.15	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 159.5	17%	3.50	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 169.5	14%	4.10	✗ lost
Ty Miller wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	14%	3.90	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 179.5	12%	4.60	✗ lost
Ty Miller significant strikes over 59.5	28%	1.91	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 189.5	9%	5.30	✗ lost
Ty Miller wins by finish in Round 1	19%	2.50	✗ lost
Billy Ray Goff significant strikes over 109.5	5%	10.00	✗ lost
Ty Miller significant strikes over 69.5	19%	2.25	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	6%	6.50	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 199.5	7%	6.00	✗ lost
Ty Miller wins by Submission in R3	1%	51.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	5%	7.50	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission in R3	1%	34.00	✗ lost
Ty Miller significant strikes over 79.5	11%	2.70	✓ won
Billy Ray Goff wins by Submission in R1 or R2	1%	21.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 209.5	4%	7.00	✗ lost
Billy Ray Goff wins by Submission in R1	1%	34.00	✗ lost
Ty Miller wins by KO/TKO in R3	3%	8.75	✓ won
Billy Ray Goff wins by SUB	2%	17.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 219.5	1%	8.00	✗ lost
Ty Miller significant strikes over 89.5	2%	3.30	✓ won

Steven Asplund

7-2-0

Winner

Steven Asplund

Decision (U) · R3

✓ predicted

Guilherme Pat

6-1-0

▼

Model Prediction

Steven Asplund ✓ won 57%

KO 23%· Sub 8%· Dec 26%

Guilherme Pat 43%

KO 17%· Sub 6%· Dec 19%

Actual Fight Stats

	Steven Asplund	Guilherme Pat
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	66/109	45/76
Total strikes landed	134	72
Knockdowns	2	1
Takedowns (landed/att)	0/1	0/0
Submission attempts	1	0
Control time	4:44	2:50

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Steven Asplund wins	57%	1.32	✓ predicted
Method Steven Asplund wins by Decision	26%	2.95	✓ predicted
Finish round Goes the distance	45%	2.11	✓ predicted

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Steven Asplund wins by Submission in R3	2%	126.00	✗ lost
Steven Asplund wins by SUB	8%	26.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	3%	67.00	✗ lost
Steven Asplund wins by Submission in R1	4%	51.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	14%	14.00	✗ lost
Steven Asplund wins by Submission in R1 or R2	6%	31.00	✗ lost
Steven Asplund wins by Submission in R2 or R3	4%	46.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	7%	26.00	✗ lost
Guilherme Pat wins by Submission in R3	1%	126.00	✗ lost
Steven Asplund wins by Submission in R2	2%	71.00	✗ lost
Guilherme Pat wins by SUB	6%	26.00	✗ lost
Guilherme Pat wins by Submission in R1	3%	51.00	✗ lost
Guilherme Pat wins by Submission in R1 or R2	5%	31.00	✗ lost
Guilherme Pat wins value	43%	3.40	✗ lost
Guilherme Pat wins by Sub or Decision	25%	5.70	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	4%	34.00	✗ lost
Guilherme Pat wins in R3+ or by Decision	24%	5.50	✗ lost
Guilherme Pat wins by KO or Sub	23%	5.70	✗ lost
Guilherme Pat wins by KO or Decision value	37%	3.50	✗ lost
Guilherme Pat wins by DEC	19%	6.50	✗ lost
Guilherme Pat wins by Submission in R2	2%	71.00	✗ lost
Guilherme Pat wins by KO/TKO	17%	6.50	✗ lost
Guilherme Pat wins by finish in Round 1	12%	9.50	✗ lost
Guilherme Pat wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	14%	8.00	✗ lost
Guilherme Pat wins by KO/TKO in R1	9%	12.50	✗ lost
Guilherme Pat wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	9%	11.50	✗ lost
Guilherme Pat wins by KO/TKO in R3	4%	26.00	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 3	57%	1.71	✓ won
Over 2.5 rounds	51%	1.90	✓ won
Fight goes to decision	45%	2.11	✓ won
Steven Asplund wins by Sub or Decision	34%	2.75	✓ won
Fight goes to Decision	45%	2.08	✓ won
Finish before Round 2	27%	3.45	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	12%	7.75	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	55%	1.67	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	49%	1.80	✗ lost
Guilherme Pat wins by KO/TKO in R2	5%	17.00	✗ lost
Steven Asplund wins in R3+ or by Decision	33%	2.40	✓ won
Guilherme Pat wins by finish in Round 1	12%	6.75	✗ lost
Steven Asplund wins by DEC	26%	2.95	✓ won
Steven Asplund wins	57%	1.32	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO	40%	1.82	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	15%	4.75	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	9%	8.25	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	20%	3.60	✗ lost
Steven Asplund wins by KO or Sub	31%	2.25	✗ lost
Steven Asplund wins by KO or Decision	49%	1.35	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	11%	5.10	✗ lost
Steven Asplund wins by KO/TKO in R1	11%	4.75	✗ lost
Steven Asplund wins by KO/TKO	23%	2.35	✗ lost
Steven Asplund wins by KO/TKO in R3	5%	10.50	✗ lost
Steven Asplund wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	18%	2.90	✗ lost
Steven Asplund wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	12%	4.40	✗ lost
Steven Asplund wins by finish in Round 1	16%	2.75	✗ lost
Steven Asplund wins by KO/TKO in R2	6%	6.50	✗ lost

Bruno Lopes

14-3-0

Winner

Diyar Nurgozhay

KO/TKO · R1

✓ predicted

Diyar Nurgozhay

11-2-0

▼

Model Prediction

Bruno Lopes 35%

KO 9%· Sub 12%· Dec 15%

Diyar Nurgozhay ✓ won 65%

KO 20%· Sub 5%· Dec 39%

Actual Fight Stats

	Bruno Lopes	Diyar Nurgozhay
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	14/25	48/70
Total strikes landed	14	48
Knockdowns	0	2
Takedowns (landed/att)	1/1	0/0
Submission attempts	0	0
Control time	0:03	0:08

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Diyar Nurgozhay wins	65%	1.58	✓ predicted
Method Diyar Nurgozhay wins by Decision value	39%	6.00	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	54%	3.14	missed

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Diyar Nurgozhay wins by DEC value	39%	6.00	✗ lost
Diyar Nurgozhay wins by Sub or Decision value	44%	4.75	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	54%	3.14	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	54%	3.05	✗ lost
Diyar Nurgozhay wins in R3+ or by Decision value	40%	3.90	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 3	62%	2.15	✗ lost
Diyar Nurgozhay wins by KO or Decision	59%	1.72	✓ won
Diyar Nurgozhay wins	65%	1.58	✓ won
Bruno Lopes wins in R3+ or by Decision	22%	4.50	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	58%	1.66	✗ lost
Bruno Lopes wins by DEC	15%	6.50	✗ lost
Diyar Nurgozhay wins by Submission in R1	3%	31.00	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	42%	2.10	✓ won
Bruno Lopes wins	35%	2.39	✗ lost
Diyar Nurgozhay wins by SUB	5%	16.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	10%	8.50	✗ lost
Bruno Lopes wins by Sub or Decision	27%	3.10	✗ lost
Bruno Lopes wins by KO or Decision	24%	3.50	✗ lost
Diyar Nurgozhay wins by Submission in R1 or R2	4%	19.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	17%	4.50	✗ lost
Finish before Round 2	26%	2.73	✓ won
Bruno Lopes wins by Submission in R1	7%	10.50	✗ lost
Bruno Lopes wins by finish in Round 1	12%	6.00	✗ lost
Bruno Lopes wins by KO or Sub	21%	3.40	✗ lost
Bruno Lopes wins by KO/TKO	9%	8.00	✗ lost
Diyar Nurgozhay wins by Submission in R3	1%	71.00	✗ lost
Bruno Lopes wins by Submission in R1 or R2	10%	6.75	✗ lost
Bruno Lopes wins by KO/TKO in R1	5%	13.00	✗ lost
Diyar Nurgozhay wins by Submission in R2 or R3	2%	29.00	✗ lost
Bruno Lopes wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	7%	9.00	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	46%	1.33	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	17%	3.60	✓ won
Bruno Lopes wins by SUB	12%	5.00	✗ lost
Diyar Nurgozhay wins by Submission in R2	1%	46.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	3%	18.00	✗ lost
Diyar Nurgozhay wins by KO or Sub	25%	2.08	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO	29%	1.81	✓ won
Diyar Nurgozhay wins by KO/TKO in R1	12%	4.50	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission in R2	4%	12.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	8%	6.00	✗ lost
Bruno Lopes wins by finish in Round 1	12%	4.20	✗ lost
Bruno Lopes wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	4%	12.50	✗ lost
Diyar Nurgozhay wins by KO/TKO	20%	2.30	✓ won
Diyar Nurgozhay wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	17%	2.80	✓ won
Bruno Lopes wins by KO/TKO in R3	2%	29.00	✗ lost
Bruno Lopes wins by Submission in R3	2%	21.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	11%	3.90	✗ lost
Bruno Lopes wins by Submission in R2	3%	15.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	5%	8.00	✗ lost
Bruno Lopes wins by KO/TKO in R2	2%	19.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	7%	5.30	✗ lost
Diyar Nurgozhay wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	9%	4.30	✗ lost
Diyar Nurgozhay wins by finish in Round 1	15%	2.55	✓ won
Diyar Nurgozhay wins by KO/TKO in R3	4%	10.00	✗ lost
Diyar Nurgozhay wins by KO/TKO in R2	5%	6.50	✗ lost

Louie Sutherland

11-5-0

Winner

José Montanha

SUB · R1

✗ wrong

José Montanha

7-1-0

▼

Model Prediction

no model pick — one fighter had no fight-record data (e.g. a promotional debut)

Actual Fight Stats

	Louie Sutherland	José Montanha
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	3/4	2/7
Total strikes landed	3	7
Knockdowns	0	0
Takedowns (landed/att)	0/1	1/2
Submission attempts	0	1
Control time	0:11	1:01

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Louie Sutherland wins	60%	1.63	missed
Finish round Finish in Round 1	48%	—	✓ predicted

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Louie Sutherland wins	60%	1.63	✗ lost
José Montanha wins	40%	2.28	✓ won

Manoel Sousa

14-1-0

Winner

Manoel Sousa

Decision (U) · R3

✓ predicted

Richie Miranda

0-0-0

▼

Model Prediction

Manoel Sousa ✓ won 68%

KO 23%· Sub 19%· Dec 26%

Richie Miranda 32%

KO 11%· Sub 8%· Dec 13%

Actual Fight Stats

	Manoel Sousa	Richie Miranda
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	67/119	46/119
Total strikes landed	89	126
Knockdowns	1	0
Takedowns (landed/att)	1/1	1/9
Submission attempts	0	0
Control time	2:49	3:51

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Manoel Sousa wins	68%	1.29	✓ predicted
Method Manoel Sousa wins by Decision	26%	3.40	✓ predicted
Finish round Goes the distance	40%	1.59	✓ predicted

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Manoel Sousa wins by Submission in R1	10%	21.00	✗ lost
Manoel Sousa wins by Submission in R1 or R2	16%	12.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	14%	14.00	✗ lost
Manoel Sousa wins by SUB value	19%	9.75	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission value	27%	6.75	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	8%	17.00	✗ lost
Manoel Sousa wins by Submission in R2	6%	23.00	✗ lost
Richie Miranda wins by Submission in R1	4%	34.00	✗ lost
Manoel Sousa wins by Submission in R2 or R3	9%	15.00	✗ lost
Richie Miranda wins by Submission in R1 or R2	6%	21.00	✗ lost
Richie Miranda wins by SUB	8%	17.00	✗ lost
Richie Miranda wins by KO or Sub	18%	6.75	✗ lost
Manoel Sousa wins by Sub or Decision	45%	2.60	✓ won
Finish before Round 2	31%	3.70	✗ lost
Richie Miranda wins	32%	3.63	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 1	31%	3.60	✗ lost
Richie Miranda wins by Submission in R2	2%	46.00	✗ lost
Richie Miranda wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	9%	12.00	✗ lost
Richie Miranda wins by KO/TKO in R1	5%	19.00	✗ lost
Richie Miranda wins by Sub or Decision	21%	4.90	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	4%	23.00	✗ lost
Richie Miranda wins by KO/TKO	11%	9.50	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	55%	1.80	✗ lost
Richie Miranda wins by KO or Decision	24%	4.10	✗ lost
Manoel Sousa wins by Submission in R3	3%	31.00	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	60%	1.59	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	40%	2.26	✓ won
Manoel Sousa wins by DEC	26%	3.40	✓ won
Manoel Sousa wins	68%	1.29	✓ won
Fight goes to Decision	40%	2.20	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	19%	4.50	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 2	69%	1.25	✓ won
Manoel Sousa wins by Decision	26%	3.25	✓ won
Over 2.5 rounds	45%	1.90	✓ won
Manoel Sousa wins by KO or Sub	42%	1.99	✗ lost
Richie Miranda wins by DEC	13%	6.25	✗ lost
Richie Miranda wins in R3+ or by Decision	16%	5.30	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	18%	4.50	✗ lost
Richie Miranda wins by Submission in R3	1%	61.00	✗ lost
Richie Miranda wins by KO/TKO in R2	3%	23.00	✗ lost
Richie Miranda wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	5%	15.00	✗ lost
Manoel Sousa wins by KO or Decision	49%	1.43	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO	34%	1.97	✗ lost
Manoel Sousa wins by KO/TKO in R1	12%	5.50	✗ lost
Manoel Sousa wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	19%	3.15	✗ lost
Richie Miranda wins by KO/TKO in R3	2%	34.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	11%	5.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	10%	5.80	✗ lost
Manoel Sousa wins by KO/TKO	23%	2.35	✗ lost
Manoel Sousa wins by KO/TKO in R2	7%	6.50	✗ lost
Manoel Sousa wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	11%	3.90	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	6%	7.00	✗ lost
Manoel Sousa wins by KO/TKO in R3	4%	8.25	✗ lost

Miles Johns

15-5-0

Winner

Miles Johns

KO/TKO · R1

Gianni Vazquez

14-6-1

▼

Model Prediction

no model pick — one fighter had no fight-record data (e.g. a promotional debut)

Actual Fight Stats

	Miles Johns	Gianni Vazquez
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	12/28	7/25
Total strikes landed	12	7
Knockdowns	1	0
Takedowns (landed/att)	0/0	0/0
Submission attempts	0	0
Control time	0:04	0:00

Juliana Miller

5-4-0

Winner

Juliana Miller

SUB · R2

✓ predicted

Ravena Oliveira

7-4-1

▼

Model Prediction

Juliana Miller ✓ won 65%

KO 20%· Sub 11%· Dec 33%

Ravena Oliveira 35%

KO 6%· Sub 5%· Dec 24%

Actual Fight Stats

	Juliana Miller	Ravena Oliveira
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	24/44	7/18
Total strikes landed	45	18
Knockdowns	0	0
Takedowns (landed/att)	2/4	0/0
Submission attempts	1	0
Control time	4:42	0:06

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Juliana Miller wins	65%	1.30	✓ predicted
Method Juliana Miller wins by Decision	33%	3.35	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	57%	2.44	missed

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Ravena Oliveira wins by Sub or Decision value	29%	6.75	✗ lost
Ravena Oliveira wins by Submission in R1	3%	71.00	✗ lost
Ravena Oliveira wins by DEC value	24%	8.00	✗ lost
Juliana Miller wins by KO/TKO in R1	10%	18.00	✗ lost
Ravena Oliveira wins by Decision value	24%	7.50	✗ lost
Juliana Miller wins by KO/TKO value	20%	8.50	✗ lost
Juliana Miller wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	16%	10.50	✗ lost
Ravena Oliveira wins by SUB	5%	29.00	✗ lost
Ravena Oliveira wins by Submission in R1 or R2	4%	34.00	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	57%	2.44	✗ lost
Ravena Oliveira wins by Submission in R2	2%	81.00	✗ lost
Juliana Miller wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	10%	13.00	✗ lost
Juliana Miller wins by KO or Decision value	54%	2.50	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	57%	2.35	✗ lost
Juliana Miller wins by KO/TKO in R2	6%	21.00	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	61%	2.10	✗ lost
Ravena Oliveira wins value	35%	3.57	✗ lost
Juliana Miller wins by KO/TKO in R3	4%	29.00	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 3	66%	1.75	✗ lost
Juliana Miller wins by DEC	33%	3.35	✗ lost
Ravena Oliveira wins by KO or Decision	30%	3.75	✗ lost
Ravena Oliveira wins by Submission in R3	1%	101.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	13%	8.50	✗ lost
Juliana Miller wins by Decision	33%	3.25	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	26%	3.80	✗ lost
Juliana Miller wins	65%	1.30	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	8%	10.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 1	21%	3.50	✗ lost
Finish before Round 2	21%	3.45	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	5%	12.50	✗ lost
Juliana Miller wins by Sub or Decision	44%	1.47	✓ won
Fight ends before decision	43%	1.51	✓ won
Under 2.5 rounds	39%	1.66	✓ won
Juliana Miller wins by KO or Sub	31%	2.00	✓ won
Ravena Oliveira wins by KO or Sub	11%	5.40	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	13%	4.20	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	9%	5.70	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	8%	5.30	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	17%	2.35	✓ won
Ravena Oliveira wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	5%	8.00	✗ lost
Ravena Oliveira wins by KO/TKO in R1	3%	13.00	✗ lost
Ravena Oliveira wins by KO/TKO	6%	6.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	5%	6.25	✓ won
Juliana Miller wins by Submission in R1	5%	5.60	✗ lost
Ravena Oliveira wins by KO/TKO in R2	2%	16.00	✗ lost
Ravena Oliveira wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	3%	9.75	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	3%	8.75	✗ lost
Juliana Miller wins by Submission in R1 or R2	9%	3.20	✓ won
Juliana Miller wins by SUB	11%	2.50	✓ won
Juliana Miller wins by Submission in R2 or R3	6%	4.10	✓ won
Ravena Oliveira wins by KO/TKO in R3	1%	19.00	✗ lost
Juliana Miller wins by Submission in R2	3%	6.50	✓ won
Juliana Miller wins by Submission in R3	2%	9.25	✗ lost

Gigi Canuto

7-2-0

Winner

Carol Foro

Decision (U) · R3

Carol Foro

10-1-0

▼

Model Prediction

no model pick — one fighter had no fight-record data (e.g. a promotional debut)

Actual Fight Stats

	Gigi Canuto	Carol Foro
Sig. strikes (landed/att)	56/107	106/173
Total strikes landed	102	125
Knockdowns	0	0
Takedowns (landed/att)	4/7	0/0
Submission attempts	1	0
Control time	6:10	0:50