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⟁ Past Events — Predictions vs. Actual Results
68 of 94
confident picks landed — when the model gives a fighter 70%+ it has been right 72% of the time
14–26
betting record with the same amount on every recommended bet (-14.9 units — early days, small sample)
Bankroll curve
−$859
2026-06-15
peak $160 · trough $-946
2026-09-19
UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld 9/10 · 90%
2026-08-08
Model Prediction
Mateusz Gamrot
36%
KO 10%·
Sub 4%·
Dec 22%
Quillan Salkilld
✓ won
64%
KO 25%·
Sub 17%·
Dec 22%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Quillan Salkilld wins | 64% | 1.68 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Quillan Salkilld wins by KO/TKO | 25% | 3.50 | missed |
| Finish round Finish in Round 1 | 23% | 5.00 | ✓ predicted |
Model Prediction
Diego Ferreira
✓ won
55%
KO 22%·
Sub 12%·
Dec 21%
Billy Quarantillo
45%
KO 30%·
Sub 4%·
Dec 12%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Diego Ferreira wins | 55% | 1.55 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Diego Ferreira wins by KO/TKO | 22% | 3.35 | missed |
| Finish round Finish in Round 1 | 36% | — | missed |
Model Prediction
Darren Elkins
16%
KO 3%·
Sub 4%·
Dec 9%
Yadier del Valle
✓ won
84%
KO 11%·
Sub 29%·
Dec 44%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Yadier del Valle wins | 84% | 1.10 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Yadier del Valle wins by Decision value | 44% | 5.10 | missed |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 53% | 3.70 | missed |
Model Prediction
Amanda Lemos
38%
KO 17%·
Sub 4%·
Dec 17%
Alexia Thainara
✓ won
62%
KO 4%·
Sub 26%·
Dec 32%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Alexia Thainara wins | 62% | 1.35 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Alexia Thainara wins by Decision | 32% | 2.05 | ✓ predicted |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 49% | 2.36 | ✓ predicted |
Model Prediction
Billy Ray Goff
35%
KO 21%·
Sub 2%·
Dec 12%
Ty Miller
✓ won
65%
KO 29%·
Sub 7%·
Dec 28%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Ty Miller wins | 65% | 1.21 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Ty Miller wins by KO/TKO | 29% | 2.20 | ✓ predicted |
| Finish round Finish in Round 1 | 31% | — | missed |
Model Prediction
Steven Asplund
✓ won
57%
KO 23%·
Sub 8%·
Dec 26%
Guilherme Pat
43%
KO 17%·
Sub 6%·
Dec 19%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Steven Asplund wins | 57% | 1.32 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Steven Asplund wins by Decision | 26% | 2.95 | ✓ predicted |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 45% | 2.11 | ✓ predicted |
Model Prediction
Bruno Lopes
35%
KO 9%·
Sub 12%·
Dec 15%
Diyar Nurgozhay
✓ won
65%
KO 20%·
Sub 5%·
Dec 39%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Diyar Nurgozhay wins | 65% | 1.58 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Diyar Nurgozhay wins by Decision value | 39% | 6.00 | missed |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 54% | 3.14 | missed |
Model Prediction
no model pick — one fighter had no fight-record data (e.g. a promotional debut)
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Louie Sutherland wins | 60% | 1.63 | missed |
| Finish round Finish in Round 1 | 48% | — | ✓ predicted |
Model Prediction
Manoel Sousa
✓ won
68%
KO 23%·
Sub 19%·
Dec 26%
Richie Miranda
32%
KO 11%·
Sub 8%·
Dec 13%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Manoel Sousa wins | 68% | 1.29 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Manoel Sousa wins by Decision | 26% | 3.40 | ✓ predicted |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 40% | 1.59 | ✓ predicted |
Model Prediction
no model pick — one fighter had no fight-record data (e.g. a promotional debut)
Model Prediction
Juliana Miller
✓ won
65%
KO 20%·
Sub 11%·
Dec 33%
Ravena Oliveira
35%
KO 6%·
Sub 5%·
Dec 24%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Juliana Miller wins | 65% | 1.30 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Juliana Miller wins by Decision | 33% | 3.35 | missed |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 57% | 2.44 | missed |
Model Prediction
no model pick — one fighter had no fight-record data (e.g. a promotional debut)