Updated 2026-07-29 19:30 AEST
2
Bouts
0
Events
New here? How to read these predictions
Win probability
Our model's estimate that a fighter wins — e.g. 72% means we'd expect them to win roughly 7 of 10 times.
Confidence interval (CI)
The range the true probability likely falls in. Wider = less certain. A pick'em fight has a wide band; a clear favourite a narrow one.
Edge
How much higher our probability is than the bookmaker's implied odds. Positive edge = we think it's underpriced.
EV (expected value)
Average return if you placed the bet many times. +15% EV means about 15c profit per $1 staked, on average.
Risk tiers
Conservative leans to safe favourites, Balanced blends, Aggressive chases bigger-odds longshots. Pick what suits you.
Edge badges
Strong / Solid / Slight edge rank how much value the model sees — and how big a stake it suggests. They're not a promise the bet wins.

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Mike Malott
Malott
Main Event
55%
Model Leans Buckley
2026-10-17
Joaquin Buckley
Buckley
UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott
2026
17
OCT
⚡ Next Event

UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott

Rogers Place, Edmonton, Canada
2
Bouts
Mike Malott
Mike Malott
United States 14-2-1 MMA Orthodox 4-fight win streak
45% | 55%
Welterweight 5 rds
⏱ Sun 18 Oct · 10:00 AM AEST
Joaquin Buckley
Joaquin Buckley
United States 21-8-0 Freestyle Southpaw 2-fight loss streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Joaquin Buckley
55.3 %
050100
CI · 25 – 85 · σ 0.075 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Joaquin Buckley finishes by KO 15% more often
  • the case against Mike Malott rides a 4-fight longer win streak
  • Mike Malott rides a 4-fight win streak (Joaquin Buckley: 0)
Method Breakdown
Malott Buckley
KO/TKO 17.6
33.1
Submission 13.2
2.1
Decision 13.9
20.1
Finish Distribution · By Round
20
R1
21
R2
9
R3
11
R4
5
R5
34
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Malott Buckley
Str/min 3.9
3.6
Sig Acc 52%
36%
Str Def 57%
59%
TD/min 0.10
0.10
Finish 75%
65%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
36
40
MalottBuckley
Combined 101 19–166
Takedowns
0.2
0.0
MalottBuckley
Combined 0.9 0.0–4.0
Fight length
Expected 2.9 of 5 rounds 34% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Malott

    Mike Malott rides a 4-fight longer win streak

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Malott

    Mike Malott eats 0.3 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 Submission rate favours Malott

    Mike Malott taps opponents 25% more often

  • 04 KO rate favours Buckley

    Joaquin Buckley finishes by KO 15% more often

  • 05 Striking volume favours Malott

    Mike Malott lands 0.3 more sig strikes per minute

  • 06 Striking accuracy favours Malott

    Mike Malott is 16% more accurate on the feet

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
TB
TBA
— | —
No model pick
3 rds ⏱ Sun 18 Oct · 7:00 AM AEST
OT
Opponent TBA
Breakdown ▼
⟁ No model pick — one fighter has no fight-record data in any source (typically a promotional debut), so the model can't price this bout.