Updated 2026-10-17 18:48 AEST
13
Bouts
1
Events
110
Value Bets
New here? How to read these predictions
Win probability
Our model's estimate that a fighter wins — e.g. 72% means we'd expect them to win roughly 7 of 10 times.
Confidence interval (CI)
The range the true probability likely falls in. Wider = less certain. A pick'em fight has a wide band; a clear favourite a narrow one.
Edge
How much higher our probability is than the bookmaker's implied odds. Positive edge = we think it's underpriced.
EV (expected value)
Average return if you placed the bet many times. +15% EV means about 15c profit per $1 staked, on average.
Risk tiers
Conservative leans to safe favourites, Balanced blends, Aggressive chases bigger-odds longshots. Pick what suits you.
Edge badges
Strong / Solid / Slight edge rank how much value the model sees — and how big a stake it suggests. They're not a promise the bet wins.

Tap any fight row to open the full model breakdown. New to the model itself? How it works · FAQ.

Mike Malott
Malott
Main Event
54%
Model Leans Buckley
2026-10-18
Joaquin Buckley
Buckley
UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott
2026
18
OCT
⚡ Next Event

UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott

Rogers Place, Edmonton, Canada
13
Bouts
9
Value Bouts
Mike Malott
Mike Malott
United States 14-2-1 MMA Orthodox 4-fight win streak
SB 1.72
46% | 54%
Welterweight 5 rds
⏱ Sun 18 Oct · 12:45 PM AEST
Joaquin Buckley
Joaquin Buckley
United States 21-8-0 Freestyle Southpaw 2-fight loss streak
SB 2.13
Model Favourite
Joaquin Buckley
54.2 %
Market · 45% on Buckley · Moirai +9 pts
Confidence · Medium · limited UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • the case against Mike Malott rides a 4-fight longer win streak
  • Mike Malott rides a 4-fight win streak (Joaquin Buckley: 0)
Method Breakdown
Malott Buckley
KO/TKO 16.0
31.2
Submission 9.3
0.1
Decision 20.5
22.8
Finish Distribution · By Round
23
R1
14
R2
9
R3
6
R4
4
R5
43
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Malott Buckley
Str/min 3.9
3.6
Sig Acc 52%
36%
Str Def 57%
59%
TD/min 0.10
0.10
Finish 75%
65%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
40
39
MalottBuckley
Combined 89 19–178
Takedowns
0.3
0.1
MalottBuckley
Combined 0.7 0.0–3.8
Fight length
Expected 3.1 of 5 rounds 43% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Malott

    Mike Malott rides a 4-fight longer win streak

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Malott

    Mike Malott eats 0.3 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 Submission rate favours Malott

    Mike Malott wins by submission in 25% of fights, Joaquin Buckley in 0%

  • 04 Striking volume favours Malott

    Mike Malott lands 0.3 more sig strikes per minute

  • 05 Striking accuracy favours Malott

    Mike Malott lands 52% of significant strikes thrown, Joaquin Buckley 36%

  • 06 Finish rate favours Malott

    Mike Malott finishes 75% of fights, Joaquin Buckley 65%

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 149 markets analysed
No markets passed the value gate. 149 markets analysed.
Erin Blanchfield
Erin Blanchfield
United States 14-2-0 Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 2-fight win streak
SB 1.29
78% | 22%
Women's Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 18 Oct · 12:15 PM AEST
Jasmine Jasudavicius
Jasmine Jasudavicius
Canada 15-4-0 Brawler Orthodox 1 win
SB 3.64
1 value bet on Sportsbet
Model Favourite
Erin Blanchfield
77.6 %
Market · 74% on Blanchfield · Moirai +4 pts
Confidence · Medium · sub-models broadly agree
Why this pick
  • Erin Blanchfield lands 1.9 more sig strikes per minute
  • Erin Blanchfield rides a 1-fight longer win streak
  • Erin Blanchfield wins by submission in 44% of fights, Jasmine Jasudavicius in 25%
  • the case against Jasmine Jasudavicius eats 0.9 fewer strikes per minute
  • Erin Blanchfield out-volumes opponents at 5.2 sig/min vs Jasmine Jasudavicius's 3.4
Method Breakdown
Blanchfield Jasudavicius
KO/TKO 16.4
3.9
Submission 13.0
5.3
Decision 48.2
13.3
Finish Distribution · By Round
20
R1
12
R2
6
R3
62
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Blanchfield Jasudavicius
Str/min 5.2
3.4
Sig Acc 44%
44%
Str Def 59%
52%
TD/min 0.13
0.17
Finish 44%
33%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
59
45
BlanchfieldJasudavicius
Combined 110 22–165
Takedowns
0.6
0.7
BlanchfieldJasudavicius
Combined 2.0 0.0–5.3
Fight length
Expected 2.3 of 3 rounds 62% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Jasudavicius

    Jasmine Jasudavicius eats 0.9 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Blanchfield

    Erin Blanchfield lands 1.9 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Win streak favours Blanchfield

    Erin Blanchfield rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 04 Submission rate favours Blanchfield

    Erin Blanchfield wins by submission in 44% of fights, Jasmine Jasudavicius in 25%

  • 05 Finish rate favours Blanchfield

    Erin Blanchfield finishes 44% of fights, Jasmine Jasudavicius 33%

  • 06 KO rate favours Jasudavicius

    Jasmine Jasudavicius wins by knockout in 8% of fights, Erin Blanchfield in 0%

Value Bets · Sportsbet 1 flagged · 112 markets analysed
  • Fight ends by KO/TKO
    Strong edge
    Priced at 20%
    Break-even 12% fair 11%
    EV / $100 +$66
    Stake 2.3%
    8.25
    $23 of $1,000 returns $190
    +$167 profit
Kyle Nelson
Kyle Nelson
Canada 17-7-1 Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Switch Stance 1 loss
SB 4.00
50% | 50%
Lightweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 18 Oct · 11:45 AM AEST
CP
Cristian Perez
Orthodox
SB 1.25
2 value bets on Sportsbet
Model Favourite
Kyle Nelson
50.4 %
Market · 24% on Nelson · Moirai +27 pts
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Cristian Perez has no UFC fights — too little to compare fight stats, so this pick leans on age, size and pre-UFC record
Method Breakdown
Nelson Perez
KO/TKO 15.3
22.9
Submission 14.3
8.8
Decision 20.7
17.9
Finish Distribution · By Round
34
R1
19
R2
8
R3
39
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Nelson Perez
Str/min 3.6
0.0
Sig Acc 46%
0%
Str Def 54%
0%
TD/min 0.08
0.00
Finish 58%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
33
29
NelsonPerez
Combined 61 16–132
Takedowns
0.5
0.1
NelsonPerez
Combined 1.9 0.0–4.6
Fight length
Expected 1.8 of 3 rounds 39% chance it goes the distance
Value Bets · Sportsbet 2 flagged · 97 markets analysed
  • Cristian Perez wins by DEC
    Strong edge
    Priced at 24%
    Break-even 14% fair 12%
    EV / $100 +$71
    Stake 3.0%
    7.00
    $30 of $1,000 returns $210
    +$180 profit
  • Cristian Perez wins by Decision
    Strong edge
    Priced at 24%
    Break-even 15%
    EV / $100 +$59
    Stake 2.7%
    6.50
    $27 of $1,000 returns $176
    +$148 profit
Kyle Daukaus
Kyle Daukaus
United States 17-4-0 Southpaw 1 loss
SB 1.50
70% | 30%
Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 18 Oct · 11:15 AM AEST
Marc-Andre Barriault
Marc-Andre Barriault
Canada 17-11-0 Striker Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
SB 2.61
Model Favourite
Kyle Daukaus
69.6 %
Market · 64% on Daukaus · Moirai +6 pts
Confidence · High · sub-models agree closely
Why this pick
  • Kyle Daukaus eats 2.7 fewer strikes per minute
  • Kyle Daukaus finishes 60% of fights, Marc-Andre Barriault 47%
  • Kyle Daukaus hits 0.11 more takedowns per minute
  • the case against Marc-Andre Barriault lands 2.8 more sig strikes per minute
  • Marc-Andre Barriault out-volumes opponents at 5.6 sig/min vs Kyle Daukaus's 2.9
Method Breakdown
Daukaus Barriault
KO/TKO 7.4
15.7
Submission 39.5
0.1
Decision 22.7
14.6
Finish Distribution · By Round
33
R1
20
R2
10
R3
37
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Daukaus Barriault
Str/min 2.9
5.6
Sig Acc 49%
47%
Str Def 42%
49%
TD/min 0.13
0.02
Finish 60%
47%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
42
44
DaukausBarriault
Combined 79 17–152
Takedowns
1.1
0.0
DaukausBarriault
Combined 1.4 0.0–4.5
Fight length
Expected 1.8 of 3 rounds 37% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Daukaus

    Kyle Daukaus eats 2.7 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Barriault

    Marc-Andre Barriault lands 2.8 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Finish rate favours Daukaus

    Kyle Daukaus finishes 60% of fights, Marc-Andre Barriault 47%

  • 04 Takedown volume favours Daukaus

    Kyle Daukaus hits 0.11 more takedowns per minute

  • 05 Control time favours Daukaus

    Kyle Daukaus spends 41% of fight time in control, Marc-Andre Barriault 10%

  • 06 Submission rate favours Daukaus

    Kyle Daukaus wins by submission in 20% of fights, Marc-Andre Barriault in 6%

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 97 markets analysed
No markets passed the value gate. 97 markets analysed.
LJ
Louis Jourdain
Canada 1-0-0 Orthodox
SB 1.53
37% | 63%
Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 18 Oct · 10:45 AM AEST
TC
Timmy Cuamba
United States 10-4-0 Striker Orthodox 1 loss
SB 2.51
Model Favourite
Timmy Cuamba
62.9 %
Market · 38% on Cuamba · Moirai +25 pts
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Timmy Cuamba is favoured at 63% — fight-history features sparse
  • Louis Jourdain has no UFC fights — too little to compare fight stats, so this pick leans on age, size and pre-UFC record
Method Breakdown
Jourdain Cuamba
KO/TKO 8.0
25.3
Submission 11.4
7.3
Decision 17.7
30.3
Finish Distribution · By Round
28
R1
16
R2
8
R3
48
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Jourdain Cuamba
Str/min 0.0
2.9
Sig Acc 0%
46%
Str Def 0%
56%
TD/min 0.00
0.10
Finish 0%
40%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
27
34
JourdainCuamba
Combined 65 19–131
Takedowns
0.1
0.5
JourdainCuamba
Combined 1.6 0.0–4.6
Fight length
Expected 2.0 of 3 rounds 48% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Model lean favours Cuamba

    Timmy Cuamba is favoured at 63% — fight-history features sparse

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 110 markets analysed
No markets passed the value gate. 110 markets analysed.
Nate Landwehr
Nate Landwehr
United States 18-8-0 Orthodox 3-fight loss streak
SB 3.30
71% | 29%
Lightweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 18 Oct · 10:15 AM AEST
Mandel Nallo
Mandel Nallo
Canada 14-4-0 Kickboxer Orthodox 1 loss
SB 1.34
7 value bets on Sportsbet
Model Favourite
Nate Landwehr
70.9 %
Market · 29% on Landwehr · Moirai +42 pts
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Nate Landwehr is favoured at 71% — fight-history features sparse
  • Mandel Nallo has 1 UFC fight — too little to compare fight stats, so this pick leans on age, size and pre-UFC record
Method Breakdown
Landwehr Nallo
KO/TKO 32.7
8.8
Submission 10.8
5.3
Decision 27.3
15.1
Finish Distribution · By Round
31
R1
18
R2
8
R3
42
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Landwehr Nallo
Str/min 5.6
6.7
Sig Acc 46%
50%
Str Def 51%
32%
TD/min 0.05
0.03
Finish 73%
88%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
37
37
LandwehrNallo
Combined 77 14–165
Takedowns
0.0
0.0
LandwehrNallo
Combined 1.2 0.0–4.6
Fight length
Expected 1.9 of 3 rounds 42% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Model lean favours Landwehr

    Nate Landwehr is favoured at 71% — fight-history features sparse

Value Bets · Sportsbet 7 flagged · 98 markets analysed
  • Mandel Nallo wins by DEC
    Strong edge
    Priced at 29%
    Break-even 8% fair 7%
    EV / $100 +$283
    Stake 5.9%
    13.00
    $59 of $1,000 returns $767
    +$708 profit
  • Mandel Nallo wins by Decision
    Strong edge
    Priced at 29%
    Break-even 10%
    EV / $100 +$194
    Stake 5.4%
    10.00
    $54 of $1,000 returns $540
    +$486 profit
  • Nate Landwehr wins by DEC
    Strong edge
    Priced at 17%
    Break-even 6% fair 5%
    EV / $100 +$166
    Stake 2.8%
    16.00
    $28 of $1,000 returns $448
    +$420 profit
  • Nate Landwehr wins in R3+ or by Decision
    Strong edge
    Priced at 23%
    Break-even 10%
    EV / $100 +$127
    Stake 3.6%
    9.75
    $36 of $1,000 returns $351
    +$315 profit
  • Mandel Nallo wins by Sub or Decision
    Strong edge
    Priced at 40%
    Break-even 20%
    EV / $100 +$99
    Stake 6.2%
    5.00
    $62 of $1,000 returns $310
    +$248 profit
  • Nate Landwehr wins by KO or Decision
    Strong edge
    Priced at 37%
    Break-even 21%
    EV / $100 +$72
    Stake 4.8%
    4.70
    $48 of $1,000 returns $226
    +$178 profit
  • Nate Landwehr wins
    Strong edge
    Priced at 43%
    Break-even 30% fair 29%
    EV / $100 +$42
    Stake 4.6%
    3.30
    $46 of $1,000 returns $152
    +$106 profit
Tanner Boser
Tanner Boser
Canada 22-11-1 Karate Orthodox 1 loss
SB 2.86
32% | 68%
Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 18 Oct · 9:40 AM AEST
Jhonata Diniz
Jhonata Diniz
Brazil 9-2-0 Kickboxer Orthodox 1 loss
SB 1.43
2 value bets on Sportsbet
Model Favourite
Jhonata Diniz
68.0 %
Market · 67% on Diniz · Moirai +1 pts
Confidence · Medium · limited UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Jhonata Diniz finishes 60% of fights, Tanner Boser 45%
  • Jhonata Diniz wins by knockout in 60% of fights, Tanner Boser in 45%
  • Jhonata Diniz lands 59% of significant strikes thrown, Tanner Boser 54%
  • the case against Tanner Boser eats 0.4 fewer strikes per minute
  • Tanner Boser out-volumes opponents at 4.8 sig/min vs Jhonata Diniz's 3.7
Method Breakdown
Boser Diniz
KO/TKO 16.8
37.1
Submission 1.1
0.1
Decision 14.1
30.7
Finish Distribution · By Round
31
R1
16
R2
8
R3
45
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Boser Diniz
Str/min 4.8
3.7
Sig Acc 54%
59%
Str Def 58%
58%
TD/min 0.00
0.00
Finish 45%
60%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
40
44
BoserDiniz
Combined 94 18–163
Takedowns
0.0
0.0
BoserDiniz
Combined 0.2 0.0–3.8
Fight length
Expected 1.9 of 3 rounds 45% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Boser

    Tanner Boser eats 0.4 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Boser

    Tanner Boser lands 1.1 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Finish rate favours Diniz

    Jhonata Diniz finishes 60% of fights, Tanner Boser 45%

  • 04 KO rate favours Diniz

    Jhonata Diniz wins by knockout in 60% of fights, Tanner Boser in 45%

  • 05 Striking accuracy favours Diniz

    Jhonata Diniz lands 59% of significant strikes thrown, Tanner Boser 54%

  • 06 KO durability favours Boser

    Tanner Boser has been knocked out in 18% of fights, Jhonata Diniz in 40%

Value Bets · Sportsbet 2 flagged · 54 markets analysed
  • Jhonata Diniz wins by DEC
    Strong edge
    Priced at 30%
    Break-even 21% fair 18%
    EV / $100 +$43
    Stake 2.9%
    4.70
    $29 of $1,000 returns $136
    +$107 profit
  • Jhonata Diniz wins by Decision
    Strong edge
    Priced at 30%
    Break-even 22%
    EV / $100 +$37
    Stake 2.6%
    4.50
    $26 of $1,000 returns $117
    +$91 profit
Julien Leblanc
Julien Leblanc
Canada 10-3-0 1 loss
SB 5.75
38% | 62%
Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 18 Oct · 9:15 AM AEST
NG
Nick Galanti
United States 1-0-0
SB 1.14
3 value bets on Sportsbet
Model Favourite
Nick Galanti
62.4 %
Market · 83% on Galanti · Moirai −21 pts
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Nick Galanti is favoured at 62% — fight-history features sparse
  • Julien Leblanc has 1 UFC fight — too little to compare fight stats, so this pick leans on age, size and pre-UFC record
Method Breakdown
Leblanc Galanti
KO/TKO 6.9
14.3
Submission 14.9
29.8
Decision 15.8
18.4
Finish Distribution · By Round
37
R1
20
R2
9
R3
34
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Leblanc Galanti
Str/min 2.1
0.0
Sig Acc 62%
0%
Str Def 46%
0%
TD/min 0.02
0.00
Finish 90%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
16
17
LeblancGalanti
Combined 35 12–125
Takedowns
0.1
0.3
LeblancGalanti
Combined 1.9 0.0–4.7
Fight length
Expected 1.7 of 3 rounds 34% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Model lean favours Galanti

    Nick Galanti is favoured at 62% — fight-history features sparse

Value Bets · Sportsbet 3 flagged · 56 markets analysed
  • Nick Galanti wins by DEC
    Strong edge
    Priced at 23%
    Break-even 12% fair 11%
    EV / $100 +$82
    Stake 2.9%
    8.00
    $29 of $1,000 returns $232
    +$203 profit
  • Julien Leblanc wins by Sub or Decision
    Strong edge
    Priced at 18%
    Break-even 10%
    EV / $100 +$80
    Stake 2.3%
    9.75
    $23 of $1,000 returns $224
    +$201 profit
  • Nick Galanti wins by Decision
    Strong edge
    Priced at 23%
    Break-even 13%
    EV / $100 +$71
    Stake 2.7%
    7.50
    $27 of $1,000 returns $202
    +$176 profit
Javad Mahjoub
Javad Mahjoub
Iran 0-0-0
SB 2.12
34% | 66%
Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 18 Oct · 8:50 AM AEST
JF
Joel Faglier
United States 6-0-0 Karate
SB 1.73
1 value bet on Sportsbet
Model Favourite
Joel Faglier
65.9 %
Market · 55% on Faglier · Moirai +11 pts
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Joel Faglier is favoured at 66% — fight-history features sparse
  • Javad Mahjoub has no UFC fights — too little to compare fight stats, so this pick leans on age, size and pre-UFC record
Method Breakdown
Mahjoub Faglier
KO/TKO 13.6
30.9
Submission 6.9
15.6
Decision 13.6
19.5
Finish Distribution · By Round
37
R1
20
R2
11
R3
33
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Mahjoub Faglier
Str/min 0.0
0.0
Sig Acc 0%
0%
Str Def 0%
0%
TD/min 0.00
0.00
Finish 0%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
20
24
MahjoubFaglier
Combined 47 14–133
Takedowns
0.1
0.1
MahjoubFaglier
Combined 1.2 0.0–4.8
Fight length
Expected 1.7 of 3 rounds 33% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Model lean favours Faglier

    Joel Faglier is favoured at 66% — fight-history features sparse

Value Bets · Sportsbet 1 flagged · 55 markets analysed
  • Joel Faglier wins by KO or Decision
    Strong edge
    Priced at 45%
    Break-even 32%
    EV / $100 +$40
    Stake 4.7%
    3.10
    $47 of $1,000 returns $146
    +$99 profit
Katlyn Cerminara
Katlyn Cerminara
United States 18-6-0 MMA Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
SB 1.35
56% | 44%
Women's Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 18 Oct · 8:25 AM AEST
MS
Mackenzie Stiller
United States 0-0-0
SB 3.21
1 value bet on Sportsbet
Model Favourite
Katlyn Cerminara
56.0 %
Market · 70% on Cerminara · Moirai −14 pts
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Katlyn Cerminara is favoured at 56% — fight-history features sparse
  • layoff Cerminara hasn't fought since Mar 2024 — ring rust is hard to price, so the model widens its uncertainty here
  • Mackenzie Stiller has no UFC fights — too little to compare fight stats, so this pick leans on age, size and pre-UFC record
Method Breakdown
Cerminara Stiller
KO/TKO 11.2
8.9
Submission 8.9
7.6
Decision 35.9
27.5
Finish Distribution · By Round
20
R1
11
R2
6
R3
63
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Cerminara Stiller
Str/min 4.6
0.0
Sig Acc 35%
0%
Str Def 62%
0%
TD/min 0.02
0.00
Finish 12%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
51
40
CerminaraStiller
Combined 95 20–171
Takedowns
0.1
0.1
CerminaraStiller
Combined 1.6 0.0–4.4
Fight length
Expected 2.3 of 3 rounds 63% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Model lean favours Cerminara

    Katlyn Cerminara is favoured at 56% — fight-history features sparse

Value Bets · Sportsbet 1 flagged · 56 markets analysed
  • Mackenzie Stiller wins by KO or Decision
    Strong edge
    Priced at 28%
    Break-even 18%
    EV / $100 +$56
    Stake 3.1%
    5.50
    $31 of $1,000 returns $170
    +$140 profit
Chad Anheliger
Chad Anheliger
Canada 13-8-0 Freestyle Orthodox 1 loss
SB 2.41
37% | 63%
Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 18 Oct · 8:00 AM AEST
SK
Steven Koslow
United States 6-1-0 Switch Stance 1 loss
SB 1.57
1 value bet on Sportsbet
Model Favourite
Steven Koslow
63.2 %
Market · 61% on Koslow · Moirai +3 pts
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Steven Koslow is favoured at 63% — fight-history features sparse
  • layoff Anheliger hasn't fought since Nov 2024 — ring rust is hard to price, so the model widens its uncertainty here
  • Steven Koslow has 1 UFC fight — too little to compare fight stats, so this pick leans on age, size and pre-UFC record
Method Breakdown
Anheliger Koslow
KO/TKO 12.0
7.6
Submission 7.0
29.2
Decision 17.8
26.4
Finish Distribution · By Round
30
R1
17
R2
9
R3
44
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Anheliger Koslow
Str/min 3.1
1.5
Sig Acc 44%
39%
Str Def 54%
40%
TD/min 0.05
0.29
Finish 40%
87%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
27
24
AnheligerKoslow
Combined 57 12–120
Takedowns
0.1
1.2
AnheligerKoslow
Combined 1.9 0.0–5.6
Fight length
Expected 2.0 of 3 rounds 44% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Model lean favours Koslow

    Steven Koslow is favoured at 63% — fight-history features sparse

Value Bets · Sportsbet 1 flagged · 56 markets analysed
  • Steven Koslow wins by DEC
    Strong edge
    Priced at 26%
    Break-even 17% fair 15%
    EV / $100 +$48
    Stake 2.5%
    5.75
    $25 of $1,000 returns $144
    +$119 profit
Chelsea Chandler
Chelsea Chandler
United States 6-4-0 MMA Southpaw 1 win
SB 3.73
16% | 84%
Women's Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 18 Oct · 7:35 AM AEST
Melissa Croden
Melissa Croden
Canada 8-3-0 MMA 1 win
SB 1.28
3 value bets on Sportsbet
Model Favourite
Melissa Croden
84.0 %
Market · 74% on Croden · Moirai +10 pts
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Melissa Croden eats 2.1 fewer strikes per minute
  • Melissa Croden lands 0.7 more sig strikes per minute
  • Melissa Croden stops 67% of takedown attempts, Chelsea Chandler 25%
  • the case against Chelsea Chandler finishes 50% of fights, Melissa Croden 34%
  • Melissa Croden has never been finished in 3 fights
Method Breakdown
Chandler Croden
KO/TKO 3.4
14.8
Submission 3.3
7.7
Decision 9.3
61.5
Finish Distribution · By Round
15
R1
9
R2
5
R3
71
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Chandler Croden
Str/min 3.5
4.2
Sig Acc 45%
47%
Str Def 40%
59%
TD/min 0.05
0.13
Finish 50%
34%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
37
50
ChandlerCroden
Combined 96 20–162
Takedowns
0.1
1.4
ChandlerCroden
Combined 2.2 0.0–4.7
Fight length
Expected 2.5 of 3 rounds 71% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Croden

    Melissa Croden eats 2.1 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Croden

    Melissa Croden lands 0.7 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Takedown defence favours Croden

    Melissa Croden stops 67% of takedown attempts, Chelsea Chandler 25%

  • 04 Finish rate favours Chandler

    Chelsea Chandler finishes 50% of fights, Melissa Croden 34%

  • 05 Submission rate favours Chandler

    Chelsea Chandler wins by submission in 17% of fights, Melissa Croden in 1%

  • 06 Striking defence favours Croden

    Melissa Croden avoids 59% of strikes thrown at them, Chelsea Chandler 40%

Value Bets · Sportsbet 3 flagged · 53 markets analysed
  • Melissa Croden wins by Decision
    Strong edge
    Priced at 57%
    Break-even 42%
    EV / $100 +$36
    Stake 6.5%
    2.37
    $65 of $1,000 returns $154
    +$89 profit
  • Melissa Croden wins by DEC
    Strong edge
    Priced at 57%
    Break-even 43% fair 37%
    EV / $100 +$34
    Stake 6.4%
    2.35
    $64 of $1,000 returns $150
    +$86 profit
  • Melissa Croden wins by Sub or Decision
    Strong edge
    Priced at 64%
    Break-even 56%
    EV / $100 +$16
    Stake 5.0%
    1.80
    $50 of $1,000 returns $90
    +$40 profit
SY
SuYoung You
South Korea 16-4-0 MMA Orthodox 1 loss
SB 2.10
50% | 50%
Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 18 Oct · 7:10 AM AEST
CC
Cody Chovancek
Canada 1-0-0 Switch Stance
SB 1.77
Model Favourite
SuYoung You
50.3 %
Market · 46% on You · Moirai +5 pts
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Cody Chovancek has no UFC fights — too little to compare fight stats, so this pick leans on age, size and pre-UFC record
Method Breakdown
You Chovancek
KO/TKO 14.8
9.9
Submission 7.5
11.8
Decision 28.0
28.0
Finish Distribution · By Round
24
R1
13
R2
7
R3
56
DEC
Key Stats career avg
You Chovancek
Str/min 2.4
0.0
Sig Acc 52%
0%
Str Def 70%
0%
TD/min 0.21
0.00
Finish 26%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
29
27
YouChovancek
Combined 62 18–115
Takedowns
1.6
0.1
YouChovancek
Combined 2.4 0.0–5.2
Fight length
Expected 2.2 of 3 rounds 56% chance it goes the distance
Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 59 markets analysed
No markets passed the value gate. 59 markets analysed.