New here? How to read these predictions
- Win probability
- Our model's estimate that a fighter wins — e.g. 72% means we'd expect them to win roughly 7 of 10 times.
- Confidence interval (CI)
- The range the true probability likely falls in. Wider = less certain. A pick'em fight has a wide band; a clear favourite a narrow one.
- Edge
- How much higher our probability is than the bookmaker's implied odds. Positive edge = we think it's underpriced.
- EV (expected value)
- Average return if you placed the bet many times. +15% EV means about 15c profit per $1 staked, on average.
- Risk tiers
- Conservative leans to safe favourites, Balanced blends, Aggressive chases bigger-odds longshots. Pick what suits you.
- Edge badges
- Strong / Solid / Slight edge rank how much value the model sees — and how big a stake it suggests. They're not a promise the bet wins.
Tap any fight row to open the full model breakdown. New to the model itself? How it works · FAQ.
Main Event
56%
Model Leans Buckley
2026-10-17
UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott
2026
17
OCT
UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott
Rogers Place, Edmonton, Canada
11
Bouts
14-2-1
MMA
Orthodox
4-fight win streak
44%
|
56%
Welterweight
5 rds
⏱ Sun 18 Oct · 10:00 AM AEST
⏱ Sun 18 Oct · 10:00 AM AEST
21-8-0
Freestyle
Southpaw
2-fight loss streak
Model Favourite
Joaquin Buckley
56.3
%
050100
Why this pick
- Joaquin Buckley finishes by KO 15% more often
- the case against Mike Malott rides a 4-fight longer win streak
- Mike Malott rides a 4-fight win streak (Joaquin Buckley: 0)
Method Breakdown
Malott
Buckley
KO/TKO
16.1
30.9
Submission
8.1
2.2
Decision
19.5
23.2
Finish Distribution · By Round
27
R1
15
R2
6
R3
6
R4
3
R5
43
DEC
Key Stats
career avg
Malott
Buckley
Str/min
3.9
3.6
Sig Acc
52%
36%
Str Def
57%
59%
TD/min
0.10
0.10
Finish
75%
65%
Model Expectations
MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
37
41
MalottBuckley
Combined 93 21–166
Takedowns
0.2
0.1
MalottBuckley
Combined 0.6 0.0–4.2
Fight length
Expected 3.0 of 5 rounds 43% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers
RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
-
01 Win streak favours Malott
Mike Malott rides a 4-fight longer win streak
-
02 Strikes absorbed favours Malott
Mike Malott eats 0.3 fewer strikes per minute
-
03 Submission rate favours Malott
Mike Malott taps opponents 25% more often
-
04 Striking volume favours Malott
Mike Malott lands 0.3 more sig strikes per minute
-
05 KO rate favours Buckley
Joaquin Buckley finishes by KO 15% more often
-
06 Striking accuracy favours Malott
Mike Malott is 16% more accurate on the feet
Value Bets · SportsBet
0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
18-8-0
Orthodox
3-fight loss streak
77%
|
23%
Lightweight
3 rds
⏱ Sun 18 Oct · 10:00 AM AEST
⏱ Sun 18 Oct · 10:00 AM AEST
14-4-0
Kickboxer
Orthodox
1 loss
Model Favourite
Nate Landwehr
77.3
%
050100
Why this pick
- Nate Landwehr eats 3.2 fewer strikes per minute
- Nate Landwehr has been KO'd 55% less often
- Nate Landwehr avoids 19% more incoming strikes
- the case against Mandel Nallo finishes by KO 21% more often
- Nate Landwehr KOs 55% of opponents — Mandel Nallo has been KO'd in 100% of losses
Method Breakdown
Landwehr
Nallo
KO/TKO
45.6
5.6
Submission
9.1
4.1
Decision
22.7
13.0
Finish Distribution · By Round
38
R1
18
R2
9
R3
36
DEC
Key Stats
career avg
Landwehr
Nallo
Str/min
5.6
5.8
Sig Acc
46%
39%
Str Def
51%
32%
TD/min
0.05
0.00
Finish
73%
76%
Model Expectations
MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
37
36
LandwehrNallo
Combined 74 18–170
Takedowns
0.0
0.0
LandwehrNallo
Combined 1.1 0.0–4.2
Fight length
Expected 1.7 of 3 rounds 36% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers
RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
-
01 Strikes absorbed favours Landwehr
Nate Landwehr eats 3.2 fewer strikes per minute
-
02 KO rate favours Nallo
Mandel Nallo finishes by KO 21% more often
-
03 KO durability favours Landwehr
Nate Landwehr has been KO'd 55% less often
-
04 Striking defence favours Landwehr
Nate Landwehr avoids 19% more incoming strikes
-
05 Striking volume favours Nallo
Mandel Nallo lands 0.3 more sig strikes per minute
-
06 Submission rate favours Landwehr
Nate Landwehr taps opponents 18% more often
Value Bets · SportsBet
0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
14-2-0
Jiu-Jitsu
Orthodox
2-fight win streak
82%
|
18%
Women's Flyweight
3 rds
⏱ Sun 18 Oct · 10:00 AM AEST
⏱ Sun 18 Oct · 10:00 AM AEST
15-4-0
Brawler
Orthodox
1 win
Model Favourite
Erin Blanchfield
82.0
%
050100
Why this pick
- Erin Blanchfield lands 1.9 more sig strikes per minute
- Erin Blanchfield rides a 1-fight longer win streak
- Erin Blanchfield taps opponents 19% more often
- the case against Jasmine Jasudavicius eats 0.9 fewer strikes per minute
- Erin Blanchfield out-volumes opponents at 5.2 sig/min vs Jasmine Jasudavicius's 3.4
Method Breakdown
Blanchfield
Jasudavicius
KO/TKO
20.8
4.5
Submission
13.1
2.3
Decision
48.1
11.2
Finish Distribution · By Round
12
R1
18
R2
10
R3
59
DEC
Key Stats
career avg
Blanchfield
Jasudavicius
Str/min
5.2
3.4
Sig Acc
44%
44%
Str Def
59%
52%
TD/min
0.13
0.17
Finish
44%
33%
Model Expectations
MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
56
49
BlanchfieldJasudavicius
Combined 102 23–170
Takedowns
0.5
0.8
BlanchfieldJasudavicius
Combined 2.0 0.0–4.8
Fight length
Expected 2.4 of 3 rounds 59% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers
RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
-
01 Strikes absorbed favours Jasudavicius
Jasmine Jasudavicius eats 0.9 fewer strikes per minute
-
02 Striking volume favours Blanchfield
Erin Blanchfield lands 1.9 more sig strikes per minute
-
03 Win streak favours Blanchfield
Erin Blanchfield rides a 1-fight longer win streak
-
04 Submission rate favours Blanchfield
Erin Blanchfield taps opponents 19% more often
-
05 Finish rate favours Blanchfield
Erin Blanchfield finishes 11% more of their wins
-
06 KO rate favours Jasudavicius
Jasmine Jasudavicius finishes by KO 8% more often
Value Bets · SportsBet
0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
17-4-0
Southpaw
1 loss
69%
|
31%
Middleweight
3 rds
⏱ Sun 18 Oct · 10:00 AM AEST
⏱ Sun 18 Oct · 10:00 AM AEST
17-11-0
Striker
Orthodox
2-fight loss streak
Model Favourite
Kyle Daukaus
69.3
%
050100
Why this pick
- Kyle Daukaus eats 2.7 fewer strikes per minute
- Kyle Daukaus finishes 13% more of their wins
- Kyle Daukaus hits 0.11 more takedowns per minute
- the case against Marc-Andre Barriault lands 2.8 more sig strikes per minute
- Marc-Andre Barriault out-volumes opponents at 5.6 sig/min vs Kyle Daukaus's 2.9
Method Breakdown
Daukaus
Barriault
KO/TKO
17.2
14.5
Submission
25.3
1.5
Decision
26.8
14.6
Finish Distribution · By Round
31
R1
17
R2
10
R3
41
DEC
Key Stats
career avg
Daukaus
Barriault
Str/min
2.9
5.6
Sig Acc
49%
47%
Str Def
42%
49%
TD/min
0.13
0.02
Finish
60%
47%
Model Expectations
MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
41
36
DaukausBarriault
Combined 78 17–165
Takedowns
1.2
0.0
DaukausBarriault
Combined 1.5 0.0–4.5
Fight length
Expected 1.9 of 3 rounds 41% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers
RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
-
01 Strikes absorbed favours Daukaus
Kyle Daukaus eats 2.7 fewer strikes per minute
-
02 Striking volume favours Barriault
Marc-Andre Barriault lands 2.8 more sig strikes per minute
-
03 Finish rate favours Daukaus
Kyle Daukaus finishes 13% more of their wins
-
04 Takedown volume favours Daukaus
Kyle Daukaus hits 0.11 more takedowns per minute
-
05 Submission rate favours Daukaus
Kyle Daukaus taps opponents 14% more often
-
06 Control time favours Daukaus
Kyle Daukaus controls 31% more cage time
Value Bets · SportsBet
0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
18-6-0
MMA
Orthodox
2-fight loss streak
34%
|
66%
Women's Flyweight
3 rds
⏱ Sun 18 Oct · 10:00 AM AEST
⏱ Sun 18 Oct · 10:00 AM AEST
9-3-0
Kickboxer
Orthodox
1 loss
Model Favourite
Jamey-Lyn Horth
65.7
%
050100
Why this pick
- Jamey-Lyn Horth eats 1.8 fewer strikes per minute
- Jamey-Lyn Horth stuffs 31% more incoming takedowns
- Jamey-Lyn Horth is 13% more accurate on the feet
- the case against Katlyn Cerminara lands 0.8 more sig strikes per minute
- layoff Cerminara hasn't fought since Mar 2024 — ring rust is hard to price, so the model widens its uncertainty here
- Jamey-Lyn Horth has never been finished in 7 fights
Method Breakdown
Cerminara
Horth
KO/TKO
3.1
14.2
Submission
2.7
2.5
Decision
28.5
49.0
Finish Distribution · By Round
11
R1
6
R2
5
R3
78
DEC
Key Stats
career avg
Cerminara
Horth
Str/min
4.6
3.8
Sig Acc
35%
48%
Str Def
62%
64%
TD/min
0.02
0.07
Finish
12%
14%
Model Expectations
MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
54
70
CerminaraHorth
Combined 130 24–191
Takedowns
0.0
0.3
CerminaraHorth
Combined 1.3 0.0–4.1
Fight length
Expected 2.6 of 3 rounds 78% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers
RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
-
01 Strikes absorbed favours Horth
Jamey-Lyn Horth eats 1.8 fewer strikes per minute
-
02 Striking volume favours Cerminara
Katlyn Cerminara lands 0.8 more sig strikes per minute
-
03 Takedown defence favours Horth
Jamey-Lyn Horth stuffs 31% more incoming takedowns
-
04 Striking accuracy favours Horth
Jamey-Lyn Horth is 13% more accurate on the feet
-
05 Takedown volume favours Horth
Jamey-Lyn Horth hits 0.04 more takedowns per minute
-
06 Loss streak favours Horth
Jamey-Lyn Horth comes in on a 1-fight cleaner skid
Value Bets · SportsBet
0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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22-11-1
Karate
Orthodox
1 loss
34%
|
66%
Heavyweight
3 rds
⏱ Sun 18 Oct · 7:00 AM AEST
⏱ Sun 18 Oct · 7:00 AM AEST
9-2-0
Kickboxer
Orthodox
1 loss
Model Favourite
Jhonata Diniz
66.2
%
050100
Why this pick
- Jhonata Diniz finishes 15% more of their wins
- Jhonata Diniz finishes by KO 15% more often
- the case against Tanner Boser lands 1.1 more sig strikes per minute
- Tanner Boser out-volumes opponents at 4.8 sig/min vs Jhonata Diniz's 3.7
Method Breakdown
Boser
Diniz
KO/TKO
17.2
38.1
Submission
2.0
0.1
Decision
14.7
28.0
Finish Distribution · By Round
31
R1
17
R2
10
R3
43
DEC
Key Stats
career avg
Boser
Diniz
Str/min
4.8
3.7
Sig Acc
54%
59%
Str Def
58%
58%
TD/min
0.00
0.00
Finish
45%
60%
Model Expectations
MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
42
43
BoserDiniz
Combined 93 20–167
Takedowns
0.0
0.0
BoserDiniz
Combined 0.0 0.0–3.8
Fight length
Expected 1.9 of 3 rounds 43% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers
RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
-
01 Striking volume favours Boser
Tanner Boser lands 1.1 more sig strikes per minute
-
02 Strikes absorbed favours Boser
Tanner Boser eats 0.4 fewer strikes per minute
-
03 Finish rate favours Diniz
Jhonata Diniz finishes 15% more of their wins
-
04 KO rate favours Diniz
Jhonata Diniz finishes by KO 15% more often
-
05 KO durability favours Boser
Tanner Boser has been KO'd 22% less often
-
06 Durability favours Boser
Tanner Boser has been finished 22% less often
Value Bets · SportsBet
0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
6-4-0
MMA
Southpaw
1 win
15%
|
85%
Women's Bantamweight
3 rds
⏱ Sun 18 Oct · 7:00 AM AEST
⏱ Sun 18 Oct · 7:00 AM AEST
8-3-0
MMA
nan
1 win
Model Favourite
Melissa Croden
85.5
%
050100
Why this pick
- Melissa Croden eats 2.1 fewer strikes per minute
- Melissa Croden stuffs 42% more incoming takedowns
- Melissa Croden avoids 19% more incoming strikes
- the case against Chelsea Chandler finishes 21% more of their wins
- Melissa Croden has never been finished in 3 fights
Method Breakdown
Chandler
Croden
KO/TKO
3.4
17.8
Submission
2.6
6.2
Decision
8.6
61.5
Finish Distribution · By Round
15
R1
8
R2
6
R3
70
DEC
Key Stats
career avg
Chandler
Croden
Str/min
3.5
3.8
Sig Acc
45%
42%
Str Def
40%
59%
TD/min
0.05
0.12
Finish
50%
29%
Model Expectations
MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
38
52
ChandlerCroden
Combined 96 22–136
Takedowns
0.1
1.2
ChandlerCroden
Combined 2.1 0.0–4.8
Fight length
Expected 2.5 of 3 rounds 70% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers
RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
-
01 Strikes absorbed favours Croden
Melissa Croden eats 2.1 fewer strikes per minute
-
02 Takedown defence favours Croden
Melissa Croden stuffs 42% more incoming takedowns
-
03 Finish rate favours Chandler
Chelsea Chandler finishes 21% more of their wins
-
04 Striking defence favours Croden
Melissa Croden avoids 19% more incoming strikes
-
05 Submission rate favours Chandler
Chelsea Chandler taps opponents 17% more often
-
06 Striking volume favours Croden
Melissa Croden lands 0.2 more sig strikes per minute
Value Bets · SportsBet
0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
LJ
1-0-0
Orthodox
37%
|
63%
Bantamweight
3 rds
⏱ Sun 18 Oct · 7:00 AM AEST
⏱ Sun 18 Oct · 7:00 AM AEST
TC
Model Favourite
Timmy Cuamba
63.2
%
050100
Why this pick
- the case against Louis Jourdain comes in on a 1-fight cleaner skid
- Timmy Cuamba has a 5-fight UFC experience edge (5 vs 0)
Method Breakdown
Jourdain
Cuamba
KO/TKO
3.3
25.4
Submission
12.4
7.0
Decision
21.1
30.8
Finish Distribution · By Round
25
R1
14
R2
9
R3
52
DEC
Key Stats
career avg
Jourdain
Cuamba
Str/min
0.0
2.9
Sig Acc
0%
46%
Str Def
0%
56%
TD/min
0.00
0.10
Finish
0%
40%
Model Expectations
MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
29
35
JourdainCuamba
Combined 65 19–127
Takedowns
0.1
0.4
JourdainCuamba
Combined 1.7 0.0–4.8
Fight length
Expected 2.1 of 3 rounds 52% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers
RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
-
01 Loss streak favours Jourdain
Louis Jourdain comes in on a 1-fight cleaner skid
Value Bets · SportsBet
0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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7-5-0
MMA
Orthodox
1 win
76%
|
24%
Middleweight
3 rds
⏱ Sun 18 Oct · 7:00 AM AEST
⏱ Sun 18 Oct · 7:00 AM AEST
10-3-0
nan
1 loss
Model Favourite
Gilbert Urbina
76.2
%
050100
Why this pick
- Gilbert Urbina lands 5.4 more sig strikes per minute
- Gilbert Urbina finishes by KO 80% more often
- Gilbert Urbina rides a 1-fight longer win streak
- the case against Julien Leblanc eats 1.8 fewer strikes per minute
- Gilbert Urbina out-volumes opponents at 6.7 sig/min vs Julien Leblanc's 1.3
Method Breakdown
Urbina
Leblanc
KO/TKO
19.5
8.9
Submission
26.4
5.7
Decision
30.4
9.2
Finish Distribution · By Round
49
R1
11
R2
0
R3
40
DEC
Key Stats
career avg
Urbina
Leblanc
Str/min
6.7
1.3
Sig Acc
58%
51%
Str Def
48%
46%
TD/min
0.18
0.00
Finish
100%
76%
Model Expectations
MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
25
16
UrbinaLeblanc
Combined 56 10–123
Takedowns
1.0
0.1
UrbinaLeblanc
Combined 1.9 0.0–4.7
Fight length
Expected 1.6 of 3 rounds 40% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers
RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
-
01 Striking volume favours Urbina
Gilbert Urbina lands 5.4 more sig strikes per minute
-
02 Strikes absorbed favours Leblanc
Julien Leblanc eats 1.8 fewer strikes per minute
-
03 KO rate favours Urbina
Gilbert Urbina finishes by KO 80% more often
-
04 Win streak favours Urbina
Gilbert Urbina rides a 1-fight longer win streak
-
05 Finish rate favours Urbina
Gilbert Urbina finishes 24% more of their wins
-
06 Takedown volume favours Urbina
Gilbert Urbina hits 0.18 more takedowns per minute
Value Bets · SportsBet
0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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13-8-0
Freestyle
Orthodox
1 loss
41%
|
59%
Bantamweight
3 rds
⏱ Sun 18 Oct · 7:00 AM AEST
⏱ Sun 18 Oct · 7:00 AM AEST
SK
6-1-0
Switch Stance
1 loss
Model Favourite
Steven Koslow
59.4
%
050100
Why this pick
- Steven Koslow finishes by KO 56% more often
- Steven Koslow finishes 36% more of their wins
- Steven Koslow hits 0.21 more takedowns per minute
- the case against Chad Anheliger lands 2.5 more sig strikes per minute
- layoff Anheliger hasn't fought since Nov 2024 — ring rust is hard to price, so the model widens its uncertainty here
- Chad Anheliger has never been finished in 5 fights
Method Breakdown
Anheliger
Koslow
KO/TKO
13.7
8.3
Submission
4.8
25.8
Decision
22.0
25.3
Finish Distribution · By Round
28
R1
16
R2
9
R3
47
DEC
Key Stats
career avg
Anheliger
Koslow
Str/min
3.1
0.6
Sig Acc
44%
29%
Str Def
54%
40%
TD/min
0.05
0.27
Finish
40%
76%
Model Expectations
MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
24
23
AnheligerKoslow
Combined 59 14–121
Takedowns
0.0
1.3
AnheligerKoslow
Combined 2.2 0.0–5.0
Fight length
Expected 2.0 of 3 rounds 47% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers
RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
-
01 Striking volume favours Anheliger
Chad Anheliger lands 2.5 more sig strikes per minute
-
02 Strikes absorbed favours Anheliger
Chad Anheliger eats 0.8 fewer strikes per minute
-
03 KO rate favours Koslow
Steven Koslow finishes by KO 56% more often
-
04 Finish rate favours Koslow
Steven Koslow finishes 36% more of their wins
-
05 KO durability favours Anheliger
Chad Anheliger has been KO'd 100% less often
-
06 Takedown volume favours Koslow
Steven Koslow hits 0.21 more takedowns per minute
Value Bets · SportsBet
0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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11-5-0
Brawler
Orthodox
1 loss
60%
|
40%
Heavyweight
3 rds
⏱ Sun 18 Oct · 7:00 AM AEST
⏱ Sun 18 Oct · 7:00 AM AEST
0-0-0
nan
Model Favourite
Louie Sutherland
59.5
%
050100
Why this pick
- the case against Javad Mahjoub comes in on a 1-fight cleaner skid
- Model uncertainty: ±6pp on the win probability
Method Breakdown
Sutherland
Mahjoub
KO/TKO
43.6
13.4
Submission
4.5
18.6
Decision
11.5
8.4
Finish Distribution · By Round
49
R1
19
R2
13
R3
20
DEC
Key Stats
career avg
Sutherland
Mahjoub
Str/min
1.8
0.0
Sig Acc
69%
0%
Str Def
35%
0%
TD/min
0.30
0.00
Finish
75%
0%
Model Expectations
MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
16
13
SutherlandMahjoub
Combined 34 10–107
Takedowns
0.9
0.0
SutherlandMahjoub
Combined 1.4 0.0–4.8
Fight length
Expected 1.4 of 3 rounds 20% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers
RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
-
01 Loss streak favours Mahjoub
Javad Mahjoub comes in on a 1-fight cleaner skid
Value Bets · SportsBet
0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
The matrix has identified no value yet — SportsBet odds may not be published.