UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott — Results & Recap

Track record

Every pick, graded

What the model said before each fight, what happened, and the locked bets it would have placed. Losses stay on the page.

212 / 318

Correct Picks

66.7% accuracy · 31 events

10 / 20

Parlay Legs

11 parlays · −$714

+$584

Running P&L · locked picks

$1000 / event · Conservative · Kelly-weighted · closing: +$323

75 of 108 confident picks landed — when the model gives a fighter 70%+ it has been right 69% of the time

17–29 betting record with the same amount on every recommended bet (-10.0 units — early days, small sample)

Bankroll curve $1000 per event · Conservative tier · locked picks +$584

2026-06-15 peak $700 · trough $-986 2026-10-24

From 17 Oct 2026 each card's picks are locked 24 hours before its first bout, as the site showed them then. Earlier cards were locked when their first prop market opened, days to weeks before the card.

UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev 2026-10-24 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-10-23 14:02 UTC (24h before) · +$303

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Daniel Santos wins by KO or Decision	Daniel Santos vs Bolaji Oki	2.45	$80	✓ won +$116
Jacob Malkoun wins	Abubakar Vagaev vs Jacob Malkoun	2.32	$80	✗ lost −$80
Ramazan Temirov wins by KO or Decision	Ramazan Temirov vs Lone'er Kavanagh	1.99	$70	✗ lost −$70
Colby Thicknesse wins by Sub or Decision	Colby Thicknesse vs Asaf Chopurov	6.25	$64	✓ won +$337

UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott 2026-10-17 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-10-16 21:24 UTC (24h before) · −$80

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Nate Landwehr wins by KO or Decision	Nate Landwehr vs Mandel Nallo	4.70	$80	✗ lost −$80

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan 2026-10-10 · $1000 Conservative · even split · locked 2026-09-19 15:16 UTC · +$1220

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Brendan Allen wins	Brendan Allen vs Christian Leroy Duncan	2.22	$1000	✓ won +$1220

UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 2026-09-19 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-09-09 12:20 UTC · +$11

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Dooho Choi wins	Patricio Pitbull vs Dooho Choi	1.39	$72	✗ lost −$72
Edmen Shahbazyan wins	Edmen Shahbazyan vs Brunno Ferreira	1.59	$63	✓ won +$37
Joshua Van wins	Alexandre Pantoja vs Joshua Van	1.85	$54	✓ won +$46

Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado 2026-09-12 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-09-09 12:20 UTC · −$95

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Jose Delgado wins	Jean Silva vs Jose Delgado	4.25	—	⋯ pending
Rafa Garcia wins	Rafa Garcia vs Rongzhu	2.53	$74	✗ lost −$74
Marwan Rahiki wins	Tommy McMillen vs Marwan Rahiki	2.37	$21	✗ lost −$21

UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse 2026-09-05 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-09-02 09:47 UTC · −$52

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Mario Pinto wins	Ryan Spann vs Mario Pinto	1.35	$80	✓ won +$28
Dan Hooker wins	Dan Hooker vs Salahdine Parnasse	5.75	$80	✗ lost −$80

UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song 2026-08-29 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-08-25 11:10 UTC · −$4

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Julia Polastri wins	Xiong Jingnan vs Julia Polastri	1.45	—	⋯ pending
Nilson Rojas wins	Bilal Hasan vs Nilson Rojas	5.50	$80	✗ lost −$80
Denise Gomes wins	Yan Xiaonan vs Denise Gomes	2.32	$57	✓ won +$76

UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues 2026-08-22 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-08-19 09:05 UTC · −$111

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Terrance Chatman wins	Anthony Wint vs Terrance Chatman	8.00	$80	✗ lost −$80
Ryan Kuse wins	Marcio Barbosa vs Ryan Kuse	7.00	$31	✗ lost −$31

UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry 2026-08-15 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-07-29 12:37 UTC · −$80

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Gillian Robertson wins	Mackenzie Dern vs Gillian Robertson	2.72	$80	✗ lost −$80

UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld 2026-08-08 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-08-04 11:58 UTC · −$75

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Louie Sutherland wins	Henrique Da Silva Lopes vs Louie Sutherland	1.63	—	⋯ pending
Guilherme Pat wins	Steven Asplund vs Guilherme Pat	3.02	$49	✗ lost −$49
Jessie Rosas wins	Miles Johns vs Jessie Rosas	2.33	—	⋯ pending
Amanda Lemos wins	Amanda Lemos vs Alexia Thainara	3.02	$27	✗ lost −$27

UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez 2026-08-01 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-07-28 16:52 UTC · −$56

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Mateusz Rebecki wins	Kyle Prepolec vs Mateusz Rebecki	1.18	$80	✓ won +$14
Oban Elliott wins	Oban Elliott vs Michael Oliveira	3.57	$80	✗ lost −$80
Bogdan Grad wins	Dennis Buzukja vs Bogdan Grad	1.52	$62	✓ won +$32
Fight goes to Decision	Daniel Rodriguez vs Uros Medic	7.25	$22	✗ lost −$22

UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov 2026-07-25 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-07-21 13:32 UTC · −$102

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Nurullo Aliev wins	Mike Davis vs Nurullo Aliev	1.54	$80	✓ won +$43
Tyrell Fortune wins	Rizvan Kuniev vs Tyrell Fortune	3.34	$80	✗ lost −$80
Damian Rzepecki wins	Magomed Zaynukov vs Damian Rzepecki	3.73	$43	✗ lost −$43
Dustin Jacoby wins	Dustin Jacoby vs Muhammad Said	1.59	$23	✗ lost −$23

UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman 2026-07-18 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-07-14 09:24 UTC · +$38

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Chase Hooper wins	Chase Hooper vs Mitch Ramirez	1.27	$80	✓ won +$22
Christian Leroy Duncan wins	Jared Cannonier vs Christian Leroy Duncan	1.32	$80	✓ won +$26
Dricus Du Plessis wins by SUB	Kamaru Usman vs Dricus Du Plessis	9.25	$55	✗ lost −$55
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani wins	Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs Seokhyeon Ko	2.66	$28	✓ won +$46

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 2026-07-11 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly · locked 2026-06-07 13:59 UTC · −$200

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Elisha Ellison wins	Gable Steveson vs Elisha Ellison	10.00	$138	✗ lost −$138
Benoit Saint Denis wins	Paddy Pimblett vs Benoit Saint Denis	1.53	$62	✗ lost −$62

UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres 2026-06-27 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly · locked 2026-06-24 16:05 UTC · −$216

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Manuel Torres wins	Rafael Fiziev vs Manuel Torres	1.96	$115	✗ lost −$115
Eric Nolan wins by Sub or Decision	Eric Nolan vs Farman Hasanov	5.30	$70	✗ lost −$70
Matheus Camilo wins	Nazim Sadykhov vs Matheus Camilo	2.99	$48	✓ won +$95
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	Julius Walker vs Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev	3.92	$44	✗ lost −$44
Fight reaches Round 2	Julius Walker vs Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev	2.17	$44	✗ lost −$44
Michel Pereira wins	Michel Pereira vs Shara Magomedov	3.82	$37	✗ lost −$37

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi 2 2026-06-20 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly · locked 2026-06-16 17:28 UTC · +$109

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Luana Santos wins	Karol Rosa vs Luana Santos	1.97	$157	✓ won +$152
Kyoji Horiguchi wins by KO/TKO	Kyoji Horiguchi vs Manel Kape	11.50	$43	✗ lost −$43

UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje 2026-06-15 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly · locked 2026-06-07 13:59 UTC · −$26

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Josh Hokit wins by KO or Decision	Derrick Lewis vs Josh Hokit	1.78	$73	✓ won +$57
Ilia Topuria wins by DEC	Justin Gaethje vs Ilia Topuria	13.00	$57	✗ lost −$57
Steve Garcia wins	Steve Garcia vs Diego Lopes	2.48	$52	✗ lost −$52
Bo Nickal wins by KO or Decision	Kyle Daukaus vs Bo Nickal	1.71	$38	✓ won +$27

10 / 20

Legs landed

50.0% of picks

2 / 11

Parlays won

every leg has to land

−$714

Profit

$100 on each

Only 11 parlays settled so far — far too few to judge the profit either way. On 91 past cards, parlays picked this way landed 67% of the time.

UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev 2026-10-24 · −$100

2-leg @ 4.38 Ends in Round 3+ / Decision @ 2.20Ramazan Temirov wins by KO or Decision @ 1.99 ✗ LOST −$100

UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott 2026-10-17 · −$100

2-leg @ 2.80 Melissa Croden wins @ 1.31Ends in Round 3+ / Decision @ 2.14 ✗ LOST −$100

UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 2026-09-19 · −$100

2-leg @ 2.21 Dooho Choi wins @ 1.39Edmen Shahbazyan wins @ 1.59 ✗ LOST −$100

Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado 2026-09-12 · −$100

2-leg @ 3.35 Ends in Round 3+ / Decision @ 2.22Edgar Chairez wins @ 1.51 ✗ LOST −$100

UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse 2026-09-05 · +$107

2-leg @ 2.07 Mario Pinto wins @ 1.35Felipe Lima wins @ 1.53 ✓ WON +$107

UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song 2026-08-29 · −$100

2-leg @ 1.81 Julia Polastri wins @ 1.45Ends in Round 3+ / Decision @ 1.25 ✗ LOST −$100

UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues 2026-08-22 · −$100

2-leg @ 2.31 Fight reaches Round 2 @ 1.30Gauge Young wins @ 1.78 ✗ LOST −$100

UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez 2026-08-01 · +$79

2-leg @ 1.79 Mateusz Rebecki wins @ 1.18Bogdan Grad wins @ 1.52 ✓ WON +$79

UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov 2026-07-25 · −$100

2-leg @ 2.45 Dustin Jacoby wins @ 1.59Nurullo Aliev wins @ 1.54 ✗ LOST −$100

UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman 2026-07-18 · −$100

2-leg @ 2.24 Christian Leroy Duncan wins @ 1.32Alvin Hines wins @ 1.70 ✗ LOST −$100

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 2026-07-11 · −$100

2-leg @ 1.99 Damian Pinas wins @ 1.46Fight reaches Round 2 @ 1.36 ✗ LOST −$100

UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott 5/11 · 45%

2026-10-17

Mike Malott

14-2-1

Winner

Mike Malott

KO/TKO · R2

✗ wrong

Joaquin Buckley

21-8-0

Model Prediction

Mike Malott ✓ won 46%

KO 16%· Sub 9%· Dec 21%

Joaquin Buckley 54%

KO 31%· Sub 0%· Dec 23%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Mike Malott wins	52%	1.70	✓ predicted
Method Mike Malott wins by Decision	24%	3.60	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	44%	2.47	missed

Every Sportsbet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	63%	8.00	✗ lost
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	63%	7.50	✗ lost
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	63%	5.50	✗ lost
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	63%	3.10	✗ lost
Joaquin Buckley wins by DEC	20%	7.00	✗ lost
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	63%	2.01	✗ lost
Joaquin Buckley wins by Sub or Decision	20%	5.80	✗ lost
Joaquin Buckley wins in R4+ or by Decision	25%	4.50	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	58%	1.90	✗ lost
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	63%	1.74	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	44%	2.47	✗ lost
Joaquin Buckley wins by KO or Decision	47%	2.25	✗ lost
Finish before Round 2	23%	4.60	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	44%	2.40	✗ lost
Mike Malott wins by finish in Round 1	12%	8.75	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	19%	5.50	✗ lost
Joaquin Buckley wins	48%	2.16	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 5	48%	2.08	✗ lost
Mike Malott wins by KO/TKO in R1	7%	13.00	✗ lost
Mike Malott wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	12%	8.00	✓ won
Joaquin Buckley wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	18%	5.25	✗ lost
Joaquin Buckley wins by KO/TKO in R1	11%	8.25	✗ lost
Joaquin Buckley significant strikes over 19.5	79%	1.14	—
Mike Malott significant strikes over 19.5	79%	1.14	—
Mike Malott wins	52%	1.70	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO	46%	1.93	✓ won
Mike Malott wins by KO or Decision	42%	2.10	✓ won
Joaquin Buckley wins by KO/TKO	27%	3.15	✗ lost
Mike Malott wins by Sub or Decision	34%	2.50	✗ lost
Mike Malott wins by Submission in R1 or R2	7%	12.00	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	56%	1.50	✓ won
Mike Malott wins by DEC	24%	3.60	✗ lost
Mike Malott wins by KO or Sub	29%	2.90	✓ won
Mike Malott significant strikes over 29.5	66%	1.28	—
Total significant strikes over 49.5	71%	1.18	—
Joaquin Buckley significant strikes over 29.5	65%	1.28	—
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	12%	7.25	✓ won
Mike Malott wins by Submission in R1	4%	19.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	14%	5.80	✓ won
Mike Malott wins by KO/TKO	18%	4.50	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 59.5	65%	1.25	—
Joaquin Buckley wins by KO/TKO in R2	7%	11.50	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 69.5	60%	1.32	—
Mike Malott wins in R4+ or by Decision	29%	2.75	✗ lost
Joaquin Buckley wins by KO or Sub	28%	2.85	✗ lost
Joaquin Buckley wins by KO/TKO in R2, R3 or R4	14%	5.40	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 79.5	55%	1.39	—
Under 2.5 rounds	42%	1.80	✓ won
Mike Malott wins by SUB	11%	7.00	✗ lost
Mike Malott wins by KO/TKO in R2	5%	16.00	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 89.5	50%	1.47	—
Joaquin Buckley significant strikes over 39.5	50%	1.45	—
Mike Malott significant strikes over 39.5	51%	1.40	—
Mike Malott wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	7%	9.50	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission in R1	4%	16.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 99.5	45%	1.55	—
Total significant strikes over 109.5	40%	1.66	—
Joaquin Buckley significant strikes over 49.5	39%	1.67	—
Total takedowns over 0.5	58%	1.12	—
Mike Malott significant strikes over 49.5	41%	1.57	—
Total significant strikes over 119.5	36%	1.78	—
Mike Malott wins by Submission in R2, R3 or R4	6%	11.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	7%	8.75	✗ lost
Joaquin Buckley wins by KO/TKO in R3, R4 or R5	9%	6.75	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	11%	5.80	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	9%	7.00	✗ lost
Mike Malott wins by Submission in R2	3%	23.00	✗ lost
Joaquin Buckley wins by KO/TKO in R3	4%	14.00	✗ lost
Joaquin Buckley takedowns over 0.5	39%	1.57	—
Total significant strikes over 129.5	31%	1.92	—
Mike Malott takedowns over 0.5	42%	1.36	—
Mike Malott significant strikes over 59.5	32%	1.80	—
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R4	5%	11.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 4	6%	9.25	✗ lost
Mike Malott wins by KO/TKO in R3 or R4	5%	11.50	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 139.5	27%	2.08	—
Mike Malott wins by KO/TKO in R3	3%	19.00	✗ lost
Joaquin Buckley significant strikes over 59.5	29%	1.91	—
Joaquin Buckley wins by KO/TKO in R4	3%	18.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	3%	19.00	✗ lost
Total knockdowns over 0.5	38%	1.31	—
Total significant strikes over 149.5	22%	2.25	—
Joaquin Buckley significant strikes over 69.5	22%	2.25	—
Mike Malott wins by Submission in R3	2%	29.00	✗ lost
Mike Malott significant strikes over 69.5	23%	2.10	—
Joaquin Buckley significant strikes over 79.5	17%	2.75	—
Total takedowns over 1.5	38%	1.27	—
Mike Malott wins by finish in Round 1	12%	4.00	✗ lost
Mike Malott wins by Submission in R3, R4 or R5	4%	13.00	✗ lost
Joaquin Buckley wins by KO/TKO in R5	2%	23.00	✗ lost
Mike Malott wins by KO/TKO in R4	2%	23.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 159.5	18%	2.45	—
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R5	3%	13.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 5	4%	10.50	✗ lost
Mike Malott wins by KO/TKO in R4 or R5	3%	13.00	✗ lost
Joaquin Buckley significant strikes over 89.5	13%	3.30	—
Joaquin Buckley wins by finish in Round 1	11%	3.70	✗ lost
Mike Malott significant strikes over 79.5	17%	2.40	—
Fight ends by Submission in R3	2%	23.00	✗ lost
Mike Malott wins by Submission in R4	1%	34.00	✗ lost
Joaquin Buckley takedowns over 1.5	19%	2.00	—
Total significant strikes over 169.5	14%	2.70	—
Fight ends by Submission in R4	1%	31.00	✗ lost
Mike Malott wins by KO/TKO in R5	1%	26.00	✗ lost
Joaquin Buckley significant strikes over 99.5	8%	4.00	—
Mike Malott significant strikes over 89.5	11%	2.88	—
Mike Malott takedowns over 1.5	19%	1.72	—
Total takedowns over 2.5	23%	1.43	—
Mike Malott wins by Submission in R5	1%	41.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 179.5	9%	3.00	—
Fight ends by Submission in R5	1%	34.00	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 3.5	13%	1.62	—
Joaquin Buckley significant strikes over 109.5	4%	5.00	—
Mike Malott significant strikes over 99.5	5%	3.40	—
Joaquin Buckley takedowns over 2.5	7%	2.40	—
Total significant strikes over 189.5	5%	3.35	—
Mike Malott takedowns over 2.5	7%	2.10	—
Total takedowns over 4.5	4%	1.92	—
Total significant strikes over 199.5	1%	3.75	—

Erin Blanchfield

14-2-0

Winner

Jasmine Jasudavicius

Decision (U) · R3

✗ wrong

Jasmine Jasudavicius

15-4-0

Model Prediction

Erin Blanchfield 78%

KO 16%· Sub 13%· Dec 48%

Jasmine Jasudavicius ✓ won 22%

KO 4%· Sub 5%· Dec 13%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Erin Blanchfield wins	75%	1.29	missed
Method Erin Blanchfield wins by Decision	47%	1.71	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	61%	3.45	✓ predicted

Every Sportsbet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Erin Blanchfield wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	13%	14.00	✗ lost
Erin Blanchfield wins by KO/TKO in R1	8%	21.00	✗ lost
Erin Blanchfield wins by KO/TKO	16%	11.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	11%	16.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO value	20%	8.25	✗ lost
Erin Blanchfield wins by KO/TKO in R2	5%	29.00	✗ lost
Erin Blanchfield wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	8%	19.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 1	20%	7.00	✗ lost
Finish before Round 3	32%	4.30	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	39%	3.45	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	35%	3.75	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	6%	21.00	✗ lost
Erin Blanchfield wins by KO or Sub	28%	4.60	✗ lost
Total knockdowns over 0.5	23%	5.10	—
Jasmine Jasudavicius wins by KO/TKO in R1	2%	51.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	12%	9.25	✗ lost
Jasmine Jasudavicius wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	4%	31.00	✗ lost
Erin Blanchfield wins by KO/TKO in R3	3%	41.00	✗ lost
Jasmine Jasudavicius wins by KO or Sub	10%	10.00	✗ lost
Jasmine Jasudavicius wins by KO/TKO	4%	23.00	✗ lost
Erin Blanchfield wins	75%	1.29	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	10%	10.00	✗ lost
Jasmine Jasudavicius significant strikes over 29.5	74%	1.30	—
Erin Blanchfield wins by KO or Decision	63%	1.52	✗ lost
Jasmine Jasudavicius wins by Submission in R1	3%	31.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	3%	29.00	✗ lost
Jasmine Jasudavicius wins by KO/TKO in R2	1%	71.00	✗ lost
Jasmine Jasudavicius takedowns over 0.5	58%	1.62	—
Fight ends by Submission	18%	5.10	✗ lost
Jasmine Jasudavicius wins by Submission in R1 or R2	5%	19.00	✗ lost
Jasmine Jasudavicius significant strikes over 19.5	82%	1.12	—
Jasmine Jasudavicius significant strikes over 39.5	58%	1.57	—
Total takedowns over 0.5	82%	1.10	—
Jasmine Jasudavicius wins	25%	3.64	✓ won
Erin Blanchfield wins by Submission in R1 or R2	11%	8.50	✗ lost
Erin Blanchfield significant strikes over 19.5	83%	1.06	—
Total significant strikes over 49.5	80%	1.10	—
Total significant strikes over 59.5	76%	1.15	—
Total significant strikes over 109.5	50%	1.73	—
Fight reaches Round 2	80%	1.09	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 69.5	71%	1.21	—
Erin Blanchfield wins by Submission in R1	7%	13.00	✗ lost
Erin Blanchfield significant strikes over 29.5	77%	1.12	—
Total significant strikes over 99.5	56%	1.54	—
Total significant strikes over 79.5	66%	1.29	—
Total significant strikes over 89.5	61%	1.40	—
Erin Blanchfield wins by SUB	13%	6.75	✗ lost
Erin Blanchfield wins by Sub or Decision	59%	1.40	✗ lost
Erin Blanchfield significant strikes over 39.5	68%	1.22	—
Total significant strikes over 119.5	42%	1.95	—
Erin Blanchfield significant strikes over 49.5	58%	1.40	—
Jasmine Jasudavicius wins by SUB	6%	14.00	✗ lost
Erin Blanchfield significant strikes over 59.5	49%	1.67	—
Erin Blanchfield wins in R3+ or by Decision	51%	1.59	✗ lost
Jasmine Jasudavicius wins by KO or Decision	19%	4.25	✓ won
Jasmine Jasudavicius wins by Sub or Decision	21%	3.90	✓ won
Erin Blanchfield wins by DEC	47%	1.71	✗ lost
Erin Blanchfield takedowns over 0.5	55%	1.45	—
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	68%	1.17	✓ won
Over 2.5 rounds	65%	1.22	✓ won
Fight goes to decision	61%	1.28	✓ won
Fight goes to Decision	61%	1.27	✓ won
Total takedowns over 1.5	62%	1.24	—
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	6%	12.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 129.5	34%	2.20	—
Fight ends by Submission in R2	6%	13.00	✗ lost
Jasmine Jasudavicius wins by Submission in R2	2%	41.00	✗ lost
Jasmine Jasudavicius wins in R3+ or by Decision	17%	4.40	✓ won
Jasmine Jasudavicius wins by DEC	15%	4.90	✓ won
Erin Blanchfield wins by Submission in R2	4%	18.00	✗ lost
Erin Blanchfield significant strikes over 69.5	35%	2.00	—
Jasmine Jasudavicius wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	2%	34.00	✗ lost
Erin Blanchfield wins by Submission in R2 or R3	6%	11.50	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 139.5	26%	2.55	—
Jasmine Jasudavicius significant strikes over 69.5	16%	3.60	—
Jasmine Jasudavicius significant strikes over 49.5	29%	2.00	—
Erin Blanchfield significant strikes over 79.5	23%	2.50	—
Total significant strikes over 149.5	19%	3.00	—
Jasmine Jasudavicius takedowns over 1.5	28%	2.00	—
Jasmine Jasudavicius wins by KO/TKO in R3	1%	81.00	✗ lost
Erin Blanchfield takedowns over 1.5	32%	1.72	—
Total takedowns over 2.5	39%	1.42	—
Jasmine Jasudavicius significant strikes over 59.5	21%	2.63	—
Erin Blanchfield significant strikes over 89.5	16%	3.30	—
Jasmine Jasudavicius significant strikes over 79.5	12%	4.50	—
Fight ends by Submission in R3	3%	17.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 159.5	13%	3.60	—
Erin Blanchfield wins by Submission in R3	2%	23.00	✗ lost
Jasmine Jasudavicius significant strikes over 89.5	7%	6.50	—
Jasmine Jasudavicius wins by Submission in R3	1%	46.00	✗ lost
Jasmine Jasudavicius takedowns over 2.5	17%	2.60	—
Erin Blanchfield significant strikes over 99.5	9%	4.33	—
Erin Blanchfield takedowns over 2.5	18%	2.10	—
Total takedowns over 3.5	22%	1.64	—
Total takedowns over 4.5	16%	1.97	—
Total significant strikes over 169.5	7%	4.30	—
Jasmine Jasudavicius takedowns over 3.5	7%	3.30	—
Jasmine Jasudavicius significant strikes over 99.5	2%	9.00	—
Total takedowns over 5.5	9%	2.35	—
Erin Blanchfield takedowns over 3.5	7%	2.63	—
Erin Blanchfield significant strikes over 109.5	2%	5.50	—
Total takedowns over 6.5	2%	2.85	—
Total significant strikes over 179.5	1%	5.20	—

Kyle Nelson

17-7-1

Winner

Cristian Pérez

KO/TKO · R1

Cristian Pérez

Model Prediction dead even — no pick

Kyle Nelson 50%

KO 15%· Sub 14%· Dec 21%

Cristian Pérez ✓ won 50%

KO 23%· Sub 9%· Dec 18%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Cristian Pérez wins	67%	1.27	✓ predicted
Method Cristian Pérez wins by KO/TKO	31%	2.00	✓ predicted
Finish round Finish in Round 1	34%	—	✓ predicted

Every Sportsbet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Kyle Nelson wins by Submission in R1	5%	41.00	✗ lost
Kyle Nelson wins by Sub or Decision value	23%	8.25	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	38%	5.00	✗ lost
Cristian Pérez wins by DEC value	24%	7.75	✗ lost
Kyle Nelson wins by Submission in R1 or R2	8%	23.00	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	38%	4.90	✗ lost
Kyle Nelson wins by SUB	9%	19.00	✗ lost
Cristian Pérez wins by Decision value	24%	7.00	✗ lost
Kyle Nelson takedowns over 2.5	18%	9.50	—
Kyle Nelson wins by DEC	14%	12.00	✗ lost
Kyle Nelson wins by Submission in R2	3%	51.00	✗ lost
Kyle Nelson wins by Submission in R2 or R3	4%	34.00	✗ lost
Kyle Nelson wins by Decision	14%	10.00	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 3	46%	2.84	✗ lost
Kyle Nelson wins	33%	3.80	✗ lost
Kyle Nelson takedowns over 1.5	25%	5.00	—
Kyle Nelson significant strikes over 39.5	39%	3.10	—
Kyle Nelson significant strikes over 29.5	56%	2.10	—
Cristian Pérez wins by Sub or Decision	36%	3.20	✗ lost
Kyle Nelson significant strikes over 69.5	12%	10.00	—
Kyle Nelson significant strikes over 59.5	18%	6.50	—
Kyle Nelson takedowns over 0.5	49%	2.30	—
Kyle Nelson significant strikes over 19.5	72%	1.57	—
Kyle Nelson significant strikes over 49.5	24%	4.50	—
Kyle Nelson wins by Submission in R3	1%	81.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 49.5	60%	1.67	—
Under 2.5 rounds	58%	1.72	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 69.5	44%	2.25	—
Total takedowns over 0.5	77%	1.29	—
Total significant strikes over 59.5	52%	1.91	—
Fight ends by Submission in R1	12%	8.25	✗ lost
Kyle Nelson wins by KO or Decision	24%	4.10	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 79.5	36%	2.65	—
Total takedowns over 1.5	57%	1.69	—
Total significant strikes over 89.5	29%	3.20	—
Kyle Nelson wins by finish in Round 1	11%	8.50	✗ lost
Kyle Nelson wins by KO or Sub	19%	4.70	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 109.5	19%	4.80	—
Cristian Pérez wins by KO or Decision	55%	1.64	✓ won
Cristian Pérez significant strikes over 19.5	64%	1.40	—
Total significant strikes over 99.5	23%	3.90	—
Cristian Pérez significant strikes over 29.5	49%	1.83	—
Fight ends by Submission	21%	4.20	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 119.5	15%	6.00	—
Cristian Pérez wins	67%	1.27	✓ won
Over 2.5 rounds	42%	2.00	✗ lost
Finish before Round 2	34%	2.42	✓ won
Cristian Pérez significant strikes over 39.5	34%	2.40	—
Total significant strikes over 129.5	11%	7.50	—
Cristian Pérez significant strikes over 59.5	16%	5.00	—
Cristian Pérez significant strikes over 49.5	23%	3.50	—
Total takedowns over 2.5	36%	2.18	—
Fight ends before decision	62%	1.15	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	23%	3.15	✓ won
Cristian Pérez wins by finish in Round 1	24%	3.00	✓ won
Cristian Pérez wins by KO/TKO in R1	17%	4.10	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission in R2	7%	10.50	✗ lost
Cristian Pérez significant strikes over 69.5	10%	7.00	—
Cristian Pérez takedowns over 0.5	41%	1.57	—
Cristian Pérez wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	27%	2.40	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 139.5	7%	9.25	—
Cristian Pérez wins by KO or Sub	43%	1.46	✓ won
Cristian Pérez wins by Submission in R1	7%	9.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	41%	1.52	✓ won
Cristian Pérez wins by KO/TKO	31%	2.00	✓ won
Kyle Nelson wins by finish in Round 1	11%	5.70	✗ lost
Kyle Nelson wins by KO/TKO in R1	6%	11.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	19%	3.15	✗ lost
Cristian Pérez wins by Submission in R1 or R2	10%	5.90	✗ lost
Cristian Pérez wins by SUB	12%	5.00	✗ lost
Kyle Nelson wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	9%	6.75	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 3.5	20%	2.85	—
Kyle Nelson wins by KO/TKO	10%	5.70	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	13%	4.10	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	3%	18.00	✗ lost
Cristian Pérez wins by KO/TKO in R2	10%	5.40	✗ lost
Cristian Pérez wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	14%	3.70	✗ lost
Cristian Pérez takedowns over 1.5	23%	2.10	—
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	8%	5.70	✗ lost
Total knockdowns over 0.5	37%	1.27	—
Cristian Pérez wins by Submission in R2	4%	12.00	✗ lost
Kyle Nelson wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	4%	9.50	✗ lost
Cristian Pérez wins by finish in Round 1	24%	1.78	✓ won
Total takedowns over 4.5	10%	4.00	—
Kyle Nelson wins by KO/TKO in R2	3%	13.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	6%	7.25	✗ lost
Cristian Pérez wins by KO/TKO in R3	4%	9.50	✗ lost
Cristian Pérez takedowns over 2.5	13%	2.75	—
Cristian Pérez wins by Submission in R3	2%	21.00	✗ lost
Kyle Nelson wins by KO/TKO in R3	1%	23.00	✗ lost
Cristian Pérez significant strikes over 79.5	3%	10.00	—
Cristian Pérez takedowns over 3.5	3%	3.75	—
Total takedowns over 5.5	1%	5.40	—

Kyle Daukaus

17-4-0

Winner

Marc-Andre Barriault

KO/TKO · R1

✗ wrong

Marc-Andre Barriault

17-11-0

Model Prediction

Kyle Daukaus 70%

KO 7%· Sub 39%· Dec 23%

Marc-Andre Barriault ✓ won 30%

KO 16%· Sub 0%· Dec 15%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Kyle Daukaus wins	66%	1.48	missed
Method Kyle Daukaus wins by Submission value	38%	3.75	missed
Finish round Finish in Round 1	33%	2.80	✓ predicted

Every Sportsbet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Kyle Daukaus wins by Submission in R1 or R2 value	32%	4.75	✗ lost
Kyle Daukaus wins by Submission in R1	20%	7.25	✗ lost
Kyle Daukaus wins by SUB value	38%	3.75	✗ lost
Kyle Daukaus wins by Sub or Decision value	59%	2.25	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	20%	6.50	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	57%	2.20	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission	38%	3.30	✗ lost
Kyle Daukaus wins by Submission in R2	12%	10.50	✗ lost
Kyle Daukaus significant strikes over 39.5	53%	2.20	—
Kyle Daukaus significant strikes over 49.5	40%	2.88	—
Kyle Daukaus wins by DEC	22%	5.25	✗ lost
Marc-Andre Barriault significant strikes over 49.5	41%	2.70	—
Fight ends by Submission in R2	12%	9.50	✗ lost
Kyle Daukaus takedowns over 0.5	64%	1.72	—
Marc-Andre Barriault significant strikes over 39.5	55%	2.00	—
Fight goes to decision	38%	2.90	✗ lost
Kyle Daukaus significant strikes over 29.5	65%	1.67	—
Kyle Daukaus wins by Decision	22%	5.00	✗ lost
Marc-Andre Barriault significant strikes over 29.5	66%	1.62	—
Kyle Daukaus significant strikes over 69.5	19%	5.50	—
Fight goes to Decision	38%	2.80	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 0.5	69%	1.51	—
Total significant strikes over 79.5	50%	2.05	—
Kyle Daukaus significant strikes over 19.5	77%	1.33	—
Marc-Andre Barriault significant strikes over 19.5	77%	1.33	—
Kyle Daukaus significant strikes over 79.5	14%	7.50	—
Total significant strikes over 69.5	56%	1.81	—
Kyle Daukaus takedowns over 1.5	42%	2.37	—
Total significant strikes over 89.5	43%	2.30	—
Kyle Daukaus significant strikes over 59.5	25%	4.00	—
Total significant strikes over 59.5	62%	1.61	—
Total significant strikes over 99.5	37%	2.65	—
Total significant strikes over 49.5	68%	1.44	—
Kyle Daukaus wins	66%	1.48	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 109.5	31%	3.20	—
Total takedowns over 1.5	48%	2.03	—
Marc-Andre Barriault wins by Decision	16%	6.00	✗ lost
Finish before Round 2	33%	2.90	✓ won
Marc-Andre Barriault wins by DEC	16%	5.90	✗ lost
Marc-Andre Barriault wins by KO or Decision	34%	2.80	✓ won
Fight reaches Round 3	47%	1.99	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 1	33%	2.80	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 119.5	24%	3.80	—
Marc-Andre Barriault wins	34%	2.66	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 129.5	20%	4.50	—
Marc-Andre Barriault wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	15%	6.00	✓ won
Marc-Andre Barriault significant strikes over 59.5	25%	3.50	—
Kyle Daukaus wins by KO or Sub	45%	1.96	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 2.5	32%	2.75	—
Marc-Andre Barriault wins by KO/TKO in R1	9%	9.25	✓ won
Fight ends before decision	62%	1.38	✓ won
Marc-Andre Barriault wins by KO/TKO	18%	4.90	✓ won
Marc-Andre Barriault significant strikes over 69.5	19%	4.50	—
Marc-Andre Barriault significant strikes over 79.5	13%	6.50	—
Kyle Daukaus wins by finish in Round 2	14%	6.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 139.5	15%	5.40	—
Kyle Daukaus wins by Submission in R3	6%	14.00	✗ lost
Marc-Andre Barriault wins by Sub or Decision	16%	4.90	✗ lost
Kyle Daukaus significant strikes over 89.5	8%	10.00	—
Total takedowns over 3.5	19%	3.90	—
Kyle Daukaus takedowns over 2.5	23%	3.25	—
Marc-Andre Barriault wins by KO or Sub	18%	4.25	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission in R3	6%	12.50	✗ lost
Marc-Andre Barriault wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	8%	8.75	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 149.5	11%	6.50	—
Marc-Andre Barriault wins by KO/TKO in R2	5%	13.00	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	43%	1.61	✗ lost
Kyle Daukaus wins by KO or Decision	29%	2.30	✗ lost
Marc-Andre Barriault significant strikes over 89.5	7%	9.00	—
Total takedowns over 4.5	10%	6.00	—
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	13%	4.50	✓ won
Total knockdowns over 0.5	38%	1.52	—
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	10%	5.80	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	25%	2.25	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 159.5	7%	8.00	—
Marc-Andre Barriault wins by KO/TKO in R3	3%	19.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	8%	6.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	4%	9.00	✗ lost
Kyle Daukaus wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	6%	4.80	✗ lost
Kyle Daukaus wins by KO/TKO in R1	4%	7.50	✗ lost
Kyle Daukaus wins by KO/TKO	7%	3.80	✗ lost
Kyle Daukaus wins by KO/TKO in R2	2%	11.00	✗ lost
Kyle Daukaus wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	3%	6.75	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 169.5	2%	10.00	—
Kyle Daukaus takedowns over 3.5	3%	4.50	—
Kyle Daukaus wins by KO/TKO in R3	1%	14.00	✗ lost

Louis Jourdain

1-0-0

Winner

Timmy Cuamba

SUB · R2

✓ predicted

Timmy Cuamba

10-4-0

Model Prediction

Louis Jourdain 37%

KO 8%· Sub 11%· Dec 18%

Timmy Cuamba ✓ won 63%

KO 25%· Sub 7%· Dec 30%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Louis Jourdain wins	52%	1.58	missed
Method Louis Jourdain wins by Decision	25%	3.30	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	48%	1.83	missed

Every Sportsbet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Timmy Cuamba wins by KO/TKO in R1	10%	14.00	✗ lost
Timmy Cuamba wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	16%	8.75	✗ lost
Timmy Cuamba wins by KO/TKO	19%	7.00	✗ lost
Louis Jourdain wins by Submission in R1	9%	15.00	✗ lost
Louis Jourdain wins by Submission in R1 or R2	14%	9.25	✗ lost
Louis Jourdain wins by SUB	16%	7.50	✗ lost
Timmy Cuamba wins by KO or Sub	25%	4.80	✓ won
Timmy Cuamba wins by KO or Decision	42%	2.75	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	12%	10.00	✗ lost
Finish before Round 2	28%	4.10	✗ lost
Timmy Cuamba wins	48%	2.39	✓ won
Timmy Cuamba wins by finish in Round 1	13%	8.50	✗ lost
Timmy Cuamba wins by KO/TKO in R2	6%	19.00	✗ lost
Timmy Cuamba wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	9%	12.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	22%	4.90	✓ won
Under 2.5 rounds	48%	2.10	✓ won
Louis Jourdain wins by Sub or Decision	41%	2.40	✗ lost
Timmy Cuamba wins by DEC	23%	4.25	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	16%	5.90	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	52%	1.83	✓ won
Timmy Cuamba wins in R3+ or by Decision	27%	3.50	✗ lost
Timmy Cuamba wins by Sub or Decision	29%	3.25	✓ won
Fight goes to decision	48%	1.89	✗ lost
Timmy Cuamba significant strikes over 19.5	74%	1.22	—
Fight goes to Decision	48%	1.88	✗ lost
Louis Jourdain wins by Submission in R2 or R3	7%	12.00	✗ lost
Louis Jourdain wins by Submission in R2	5%	18.00	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 2	72%	1.22	✓ won
Over 2.5 rounds	52%	1.66	✗ lost
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	56%	1.53	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 0.5	72%	1.18	—
Fight ends by KO/TKO	31%	2.75	✗ lost
Timmy Cuamba significant strikes over 29.5	57%	1.45	—
Fight ends by Submission in R2	7%	12.50	✓ won
Louis Jourdain wins	52%	1.58	✗ lost
Louis Jourdain wins by DEC	25%	3.30	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	16%	5.10	✓ won
Timmy Cuamba wins by finish in Round 1	13%	6.00	✗ lost
Timmy Cuamba takedowns over 0.5	51%	1.57	—
Louis Jourdain wins by Decision	25%	3.20	✗ lost
Timmy Cuamba wins by KO/TKO in R3	3%	26.00	✗ lost
Timmy Cuamba significant strikes over 39.5	43%	1.80	—
Louis Jourdain wins by KO or Sub	27%	2.80	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 49.5	62%	1.22	—
Louis Jourdain takedowns over 0.5	40%	1.83	—
Total takedowns over 1.5	53%	1.39	—
Louis Jourdain significant strikes over 19.5	64%	1.12	—
Total significant strikes over 59.5	55%	1.30	—
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	9%	7.50	✗ lost
Timmy Cuamba significant strikes over 49.5	30%	2.30	—
Timmy Cuamba wins by Submission in R1	3%	23.00	✗ lost
Louis Jourdain wins by KO or Decision	36%	1.90	✗ lost
Timmy Cuamba wins by Submission in R1 or R2	5%	14.00	✓ won
Louis Jourdain wins by Submission in R3	2%	26.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 69.5	46%	1.38	—
Timmy Cuamba wins by SUB	6%	11.50	✓ won
Timmy Cuamba significant strikes over 59.5	20%	3.00	—
Louis Jourdain significant strikes over 29.5	47%	1.25	—
Fight ends by Submission in R3	3%	17.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	8%	7.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 79.5	38%	1.50	—
Total knockdowns over 0.5	38%	1.47	—
Total takedowns over 2.5	33%	1.65	—
Timmy Cuamba takedowns over 1.5	27%	2.00	—
Louis Jourdain wins by KO/TKO in R1	6%	8.75	✗ lost
Louis Jourdain wins by finish in Round 1	15%	3.60	✗ lost
Timmy Cuamba wins by Submission in R2	2%	31.00	✓ won
Louis Jourdain takedowns over 1.5	22%	2.40	—
Louis Jourdain wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	9%	5.30	✗ lost
Louis Jourdain significant strikes over 39.5	35%	1.40	—
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	5%	10.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 89.5	29%	1.64	—
Louis Jourdain wins by KO/TKO	11%	4.10	✗ lost
Timmy Cuamba takedowns over 2.5	18%	2.50	—
Timmy Cuamba significant strikes over 69.5	10%	4.20	—
Total significant strikes over 99.5	23%	1.83	—
Louis Jourdain significant strikes over 49.5	24%	1.67	—
Total takedowns over 3.5	20%	2.00	—
Total significant strikes over 109.5	19%	2.08	—
Louis Jourdain takedowns over 2.5	11%	3.25	—
Louis Jourdain wins by KO/TKO in R2	3%	10.50	✗ lost
Timmy Cuamba wins by Submission in R3	1%	41.00	✗ lost
Louis Jourdain wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	5%	6.75	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 119.5	15%	2.35	—
Timmy Cuamba takedowns over 3.5	10%	3.40	—
Louis Jourdain significant strikes over 59.5	17%	2.00	—
Total significant strikes over 129.5	11%	2.75	—
Total takedowns over 4.5	11%	2.55	—
Louis Jourdain wins by KO/TKO in R3	2%	14.00	✗ lost
Louis Jourdain significant strikes over 69.5	9%	2.63	—
Total significant strikes over 139.5	7%	3.25	—
Total knockdowns over 1.5	3%	5.20	—
Total significant strikes over 149.5	3%	3.90	—
Timmy Cuamba takedowns over 4.5	2%	4.50	—
Total takedowns over 5.5	2%	3.25	—
Timmy Cuamba significant strikes over 79.5	1%	5.50	—
Louis Jourdain significant strikes over 79.5	2%	3.40	—
Louis Jourdain takedowns over 3.5	1%	4.50	—

Nate Landwehr

18-8-0

Winner

Mandel Nallo

KO/TKO · R2

✗ wrong

Mandel Nallo

14-4-0

Model Prediction

Nate Landwehr 71%

KO 33%· Sub 11%· Dec 27%

Mandel Nallo ✓ won 29%

KO 9%· Sub 5%· Dec 15%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Mandel Nallo wins	57%	1.34	✓ predicted
Method Mandel Nallo wins by Decision value	29%	13.00	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	46%	6.50	missed

Every Sportsbet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Mandel Nallo wins by DEC value	29%	13.00	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	46%	7.00	✗ lost
Mandel Nallo wins by Decision value	29%	10.50	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	46%	6.50	✗ lost
Nate Landwehr wins by DEC value	17%	14.00	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 3	54%	4.25	✗ lost
Mandel Nallo wins by Sub or Decision value	40%	5.20	✗ lost
Nate Landwehr wins in R3+ or by Decision value	23%	8.75	✗ lost
Nate Landwehr wins by KO or Decision value	37%	4.70	✗ lost
Nate Landwehr significant strikes over 69.5	26%	6.50	—
Nate Landwehr significant strikes over 79.5	20%	8.50	—
Nate Landwehr significant strikes over 59.5	34%	5.00	—
Total takedowns over 2.5	26%	6.25	—
Nate Landwehr significant strikes over 49.5	41%	4.00	—
Mandel Nallo takedowns over 1.5	22%	7.00	—
Nate Landwehr significant strikes over 89.5	14%	11.00	—
Total takedowns over 1.5	44%	3.30	—
Nate Landwehr significant strikes over 39.5	48%	3.00	—
Nate Landwehr wins value	43%	3.30	✗ lost
Nate Landwehr significant strikes over 29.5	61%	2.30	—
Over 2.5 rounds	50%	2.75	✗ lost
Nate Landwehr wins by Sub or Decision	23%	5.80	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 69.5	56%	2.30	—
Total significant strikes over 79.5	48%	2.65	—
Total significant strikes over 59.5	63%	2.03	—
Nate Landwehr significant strikes over 19.5	75%	1.67	—
Total significant strikes over 49.5	70%	1.77	—
Nate Landwehr wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	17%	7.25	✗ lost
Nate Landwehr wins by KO/TKO	20%	6.00	✗ lost
Nate Landwehr wins by KO/TKO in R1	11%	11.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 89.5	40%	3.00	—
Mandel Nallo takedowns over 0.5	39%	3.00	—
Mandel Nallo significant strikes over 39.5	47%	2.40	—
Total takedowns over 0.5	65%	1.72	—
Mandel Nallo significant strikes over 29.5	60%	1.83	—
Total significant strikes over 99.5	31%	3.45	—
Nate Landwehr wins by KO/TKO in R2	6%	17.00	✗ lost
Nate Landwehr wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	9%	11.50	✗ lost
Mandel Nallo significant strikes over 49.5	33%	3.10	—
Mandel Nallo significant strikes over 19.5	72%	1.40	—
Nate Landwehr wins by KO or Sub	27%	3.80	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 139.5	17%	6.00	—
Total significant strikes over 149.5	14%	7.00	—
Total significant strikes over 119.5	22%	4.50	—
Total significant strikes over 129.5	19%	5.10	—
Total significant strikes over 109.5	24%	3.90	—
Total significant strikes over 159.5	11%	8.00	—
Mandel Nallo wins by Submission in R3	2%	61.00	✗ lost
Nate Landwehr takedowns over 1.5	15%	6.00	—
Mandel Nallo significant strikes over 59.5	22%	4.00	—
Nate Landwehr wins by finish in Round 1	14%	6.00	✗ lost
Nate Landwehr takedowns over 0.5	35%	2.40	—
Mandel Nallo wins by Submission in R2 or R3	5%	18.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 169.5	9%	9.25	—
Nate Landwehr wins by finish in Round 2	8%	9.50	✗ lost
Mandel Nallo wins	57%	1.34	✓ won
Nate Landwehr wins by KO/TKO in R3	3%	26.00	✗ lost
Mandel Nallo wins by SUB	10%	7.25	✗ lost
Mandel Nallo wins by KO or Decision	47%	1.58	✓ won
Mandel Nallo wins by Submission in R2	3%	23.00	✗ lost
Mandel Nallo significant strikes over 69.5	14%	5.00	—
Fight ends by Submission	17%	4.20	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 179.5	6%	11.00	—
Under 2.5 rounds	50%	1.40	✓ won
Mandel Nallo wins by Submission in R1 or R2	9%	7.75	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	5%	13.00	✗ lost
Nate Landwehr wins by finish in Round 1	14%	4.60	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	8%	8.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	9%	6.50	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	54%	1.08	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	11%	5.00	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission in R3	2%	23.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	5%	10.50	✗ lost
Mandel Nallo wins by Submission in R1	6%	10.00	✗ lost
Finish before Round 3	46%	1.20	✓ won
Nate Landwehr wins by Submission in R1 or R2	6%	9.75	✗ lost
Nate Landwehr wins by SUB	7%	8.25	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	37%	1.38	✓ won
Nate Landwehr wins by Submission in R1	4%	14.00	✗ lost
Nate Landwehr wins by Submission in R2	2%	23.00	✗ lost
Mandel Nallo significant strikes over 79.5	7%	6.50	—
Total knockdowns over 0.5	38%	1.20	—
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	20%	2.15	✗ lost
Mandel Nallo wins by KO or Sub	27%	1.43	✓ won
Mandel Nallo wins by KO/TKO in R3	2%	15.00	✗ lost
Mandel Nallo wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	8%	4.80	✓ won
Mandel Nallo wins by KO/TKO in R2	5%	6.25	✓ won
Nate Landwehr wins by Submission in R3	1%	34.00	✗ lost
Mandel Nallo wins by KO/TKO	17%	1.73	✓ won
Mandel Nallo wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	15%	1.89	✓ won
Mandel Nallo wins by KO/TKO in R1	9%	2.55	✗ lost
Mandel Nallo wins by finish in Round 1	15%	1.57	✗ lost
Total knockdowns over 1.5	3%	4.30	—

Tanner Boser

22-11-1

Winner

Tanner Boser

KO/TKO · R3

✗ wrong

Jhonata Diniz

9-2-0

Model Prediction

Tanner Boser ✓ won 32%

KO 17%· Sub 1%· Dec 14%

Jhonata Diniz 68%

KO 37%· Sub 0%· Dec 31%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Jhonata Diniz wins	66%	1.48	missed
Method Jhonata Diniz wins by KO/TKO	36%	2.07	missed
Finish round Finish in Round 1	31%	—	missed

Every Sportsbet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Jhonata Diniz wins by DEC value	30%	5.40	✗ lost
Tanner Boser wins by KO/TKO in R1	10%	15.00	✗ lost
Jhonata Diniz wins by Decision value	30%	5.00	✗ lost
Tanner Boser wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	16%	8.75	✗ lost
Jhonata Diniz wins by Sub or Decision	30%	4.50	✗ lost
Tanner Boser wins by KO/TKO	18%	6.75	✓ won
Fight goes to decision	45%	2.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	30%	3.70	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	45%	2.45	✗ lost
Tanner Boser wins by finish in Round 1	11%	10.00	✗ lost
Tanner Boser wins by KO or Sub	19%	5.60	✓ won
Finish before Round 2	31%	3.45	✗ lost
Jhonata Diniz wins by KO or Decision	66%	1.54	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	49%	2.00	—
Jhonata Diniz wins	66%	1.48	✗ lost
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	53%	1.81	✓ won
Tanner Boser wins by KO or Decision	33%	2.80	✓ won
Jhonata Diniz wins by KO/TKO in R1	20%	4.60	✗ lost
Tanner Boser wins	34%	2.67	✓ won
Fight reaches Round 2	69%	1.28	✓ won
Under 2.5 rounds	51%	1.72	—
Fight ends by KO/TKO	54%	1.63	✓ won
Tanner Boser wins by KO/TKO in R2	5%	16.00	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	55%	1.49	✓ won
Jhonata Diniz wins by finish in Round 1	20%	4.00	✗ lost
Jhonata Diniz wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	31%	2.60	✗ lost
Tanner Boser wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	8%	10.00	✓ won
Tanner Boser wins by finish in Round 1	11%	7.25	✗ lost
Jhonata Diniz wins by KO/TKO	36%	2.07	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	16%	4.40	✗ lost
Jhonata Diniz wins by KO or Sub	36%	1.94	✗ lost
Tanner Boser wins by Decision	15%	4.50	✗ lost
Tanner Boser wins by DEC	15%	4.40	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	16%	4.00	✗ lost
Tanner Boser wins by Sub or Decision	16%	3.90	✗ lost
Jhonata Diniz wins by KO/TKO in R2	11%	5.50	✗ lost
Jhonata Diniz wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	16%	3.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	8%	6.50	✓ won
Jhonata Diniz wins by finish in Round 1	20%	2.45	✗ lost
Tanner Boser wins by KO/TKO in R3	3%	19.00	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	8%	5.90	✓ won
Jhonata Diniz wins by KO/TKO in R3	5%	8.25	✗ lost
Tanner Boser wins by Submission in R1	1%	51.00	✗ lost
Tanner Boser wins by Submission in R1 or R2	1%	31.00	✗ lost
Tanner Boser wins by SUB	1%	23.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	1%	26.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	1%	12.00	✗ lost

Julien LeBlanc

10-3-0

Winner

Nick Galanti

Submission · R1

✓ predicted

Nick Galanti

1-0-0

Model Prediction

Julien LeBlanc 38%

KO 7%· Sub 15%· Dec 16%

Nick Galanti ✓ won 62%

KO 14%· Sub 30%· Dec 18%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Nick Galanti wins	78%	1.13	✓ predicted
Method Nick Galanti wins by Submission	37%	1.74	✓ predicted
Finish round Finish in Round 1	38%	—	✓ predicted

Every Sportsbet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Julien LeBlanc wins by Submission in R1	5%	41.00	✗ lost
Julien LeBlanc wins by SUB	9%	21.00	✗ lost
Julien LeBlanc wins by Sub or Decision	18%	10.00	✗ lost
Julien LeBlanc wins by Submission in R1 or R2	8%	23.00	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	32%	5.20	✗ lost
Nick Galanti wins by DEC value	23%	7.25	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	32%	5.10	✗ lost
Nick Galanti wins by Decision	23%	6.50	✗ lost
Julien LeBlanc wins by DEC	9%	16.00	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 3	41%	3.31	✗ lost
Julien LeBlanc wins by Submission in R2	3%	51.00	✗ lost
Julien LeBlanc wins	22%	6.05	✗ lost
Julien LeBlanc wins by Submission in R2 or R3	4%	34.00	✗ lost
Nick Galanti wins by KO or Decision	41%	2.95	✗ lost
Julien LeBlanc wins by Decision	9%	12.00	✗ lost
Julien LeBlanc wins by Submission in R3	1%	91.00	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	63%	1.61	✓ won
Julien LeBlanc wins by KO or Sub	13%	7.75	✗ lost
Julien LeBlanc wins by KO or Decision	13%	7.00	✗ lost
Nick Galanti wins	78%	1.13	✓ won
Nick Galanti wins by Sub or Decision	60%	1.44	✓ won
Over 2.5 rounds	37%	2.20	✗ lost
Nick Galanti wins by KO/TKO	18%	4.50	✗ lost
Julien LeBlanc wins by finish in Round 1	7%	11.00	✗ lost
Nick Galanti wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	15%	5.10	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	20%	3.80	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	68%	1.14	✓ won
Nick Galanti wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	8%	10.00	✗ lost
Finish before Round 3	59%	1.30	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission	46%	1.64	✓ won
Nick Galanti wins by KO/TKO in R2	5%	14.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	14%	5.40	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	22%	3.40	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	12%	5.80	✗ lost
Nick Galanti wins by KO/TKO in R1	10%	7.00	✗ lost
Nick Galanti wins by KO or Sub	55%	1.28	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission in R1	26%	2.70	✓ won
Julien LeBlanc wins by finish in Round 1	7%	9.50	✗ lost
Nick Galanti wins by finish in Round 1	31%	2.10	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	7%	10.00	✗ lost
Nick Galanti wins by Submission in R2	11%	5.80	✗ lost
Nick Galanti wins by SUB	37%	1.74	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	9%	7.25	✗ lost
Nick Galanti wins by Submission in R1 or R2	32%	1.98	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission in R3	6%	10.50	✗ lost
Nick Galanti wins by KO/TKO in R3	2%	26.00	✗ lost
Nick Galanti wins by Submission in R1	21%	2.85	✓ won
Nick Galanti wins by Submission in R3	5%	11.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	3%	18.00	✗ lost
Julien LeBlanc wins by KO/TKO in R1	2%	21.00	✗ lost
Nick Galanti wins by finish in Round 1	31%	1.46	✓ won
Julien LeBlanc wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	3%	13.00	✗ lost
Julien LeBlanc wins by KO/TKO	4%	10.50	✗ lost
Julien LeBlanc wins by KO/TKO in R2	1%	26.00	✗ lost
Julien LeBlanc wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	2%	18.00	✗ lost

Javad Mahjoub

0-0-0

Winner

Joel Faglier

KO/TKO · R2

✓ predicted

Joel Faglier

6-0-0

Model Prediction

Javad Mahjoub 34%

KO 14%· Sub 7%· Dec 14%

Joel Faglier ✓ won 66%

KO 31%· Sub 16%· Dec 19%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Joel Faglier wins	66%	1.74	✓ predicted
Method Joel Faglier wins by KO/TKO value	31%	5.10	✓ predicted
Finish round Finish in Round 1	37%	—	missed

Every Sportsbet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Joel Faglier wins by KO/TKO value	31%	5.10	✓ won
Joel Faglier wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2 value	26%	6.00	✓ won
Joel Faglier wins by KO/TKO in R1	17%	9.00	✗ lost
Joel Faglier wins by KO or Decision value	50%	2.90	✓ won
Joel Faglier wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	14%	9.50	✓ won
Joel Faglier wins by KO/TKO in R2	9%	14.00	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	24%	5.10	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO value	45%	2.75	✓ won
Joel Faglier wins in R3+ or by Decision	29%	4.25	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	62%	1.90	✓ won
Joel Faglier wins by DEC	19%	6.00	✗ lost
Joel Faglier wins	66%	1.74	✓ won
Fight goes to decision	33%	3.32	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	33%	3.25	✗ lost
Joel Faglier wins by KO or Sub	46%	2.25	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	13%	8.00	✓ won
Joel Faglier wins by finish in Round 1	26%	4.00	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 3	44%	2.34	✗ lost
Joel Faglier wins by KO/TKO in R3	5%	21.00	✗ lost
Finish before Round 2	37%	2.47	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	7%	13.00	✗ lost
Javad Mahjoub wins by DEC	14%	6.50	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	67%	1.30	✓ won
Javad Mahjoub wins by KO or Decision	27%	3.20	✗ lost
Joel Faglier wins by Sub or Decision	35%	2.45	✗ lost
Joel Faglier wins by finish in Round 2	14%	6.00	✓ won
Javad Mahjoub wins by Decision	14%	6.00	✗ lost
Javad Mahjoub wins by KO/TKO	14%	5.60	✗ lost
Javad Mahjoub wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	11%	6.50	✗ lost
Javad Mahjoub wins by KO/TKO in R1	7%	9.75	✗ lost
Javad Mahjoub wins	34%	2.10	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	11%	6.75	✗ lost
Joel Faglier wins by finish in Round 1	26%	2.75	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	38%	1.80	✗ lost
Javad Mahjoub wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	6%	10.50	✗ lost
Javad Mahjoub wins by Sub or Decision	20%	3.05	✗ lost
Joel Faglier wins by Submission in R1 or R2	13%	4.60	✗ lost
Joel Faglier wins by Submission in R1	9%	7.00	✗ lost
Joel Faglier wins by SUB	16%	3.80	✗ lost
Javad Mahjoub wins by KO or Sub	21%	2.80	✗ lost
Javad Mahjoub wins by KO/TKO in R2	4%	14.00	✗ lost
Javad Mahjoub wins by KO/TKO in R3	2%	26.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	12%	4.30	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	22%	2.30	✗ lost
Joel Faglier wins by Submission in R2	5%	11.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	7%	6.75	✗ lost
Joel Faglier wins by Submission in R3	2%	17.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	4%	11.50	✗ lost
Javad Mahjoub wins by finish in Round 1	11%	3.30	✗ lost
Javad Mahjoub wins by SUB	7%	5.20	✗ lost
Javad Mahjoub wins by Submission in R1	4%	9.25	✗ lost
Javad Mahjoub wins by Submission in R1 or R2	6%	6.00	✗ lost
Javad Mahjoub wins by Submission in R2 or R3	3%	9.75	✗ lost
Javad Mahjoub wins by Submission in R3	1%	26.00	✗ lost
Javad Mahjoub wins by Submission in R2	2%	13.00	✗ lost

Katlyn Cerminara

18-6-0

Winner

Katlyn Cerminara

KO/TKO · R1

✓ predicted

Mackenzie Stiller

0-0-0

Model Prediction

Katlyn Cerminara ✓ won 56%

KO 11%· Sub 9%· Dec 36%

Mackenzie Stiller 44%

KO 9%· Sub 8%· Dec 27%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Katlyn Cerminara wins	56%	1.38	✓ predicted
Method Katlyn Cerminara wins by Decision	36%	1.68	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	63%	3.07	missed

Every Sportsbet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Mackenzie Stiller wins by KO/TKO in R1	5%	41.00	✗ lost
Mackenzie Stiller wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	8%	26.00	✗ lost
Mackenzie Stiller wins by KO or Decision value	36%	5.30	✗ lost
Mackenzie Stiller wins by KO/TKO	9%	21.00	✗ lost
Mackenzie Stiller wins by DEC value	27%	6.25	✗ lost
Mackenzie Stiller wins by KO/TKO in R2	3%	61.00	✗ lost
Mackenzie Stiller wins by Decision value	27%	6.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	11%	15.00	✓ won
Katlyn Cerminara wins by Submission in R1	5%	31.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	20%	7.25	✓ won
Katlyn Cerminara wins by Submission in R1 or R2	7%	19.00	✗ lost
Mackenzie Stiller wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	4%	34.00	✗ lost
Mackenzie Stiller wins	44%	3.06	✗ lost
Katlyn Cerminara wins by SUB	9%	15.00	✗ lost
Katlyn Cerminara wins by KO or Sub	20%	6.50	✓ won
Finish before Round 3	31%	4.00	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 1	20%	6.25	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	6%	19.00	✗ lost
Katlyn Cerminara wins by KO/TKO in R1	6%	19.00	✓ won
Mackenzie Stiller wins by KO/TKO in R3	1%	81.00	✗ lost
Mackenzie Stiller wins by Sub or Decision	35%	3.25	✗ lost
Katlyn Cerminara wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	9%	12.00	✓ won
Fight ends before decision	37%	3.07	✓ won
Katlyn Cerminara wins by Submission in R2	3%	41.00	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	34%	3.25	✓ won
Katlyn Cerminara wins by KO/TKO	11%	9.75	✓ won
Katlyn Cerminara wins by Submission in R2 or R3	4%	23.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	11%	8.25	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 2	80%	1.11	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	63%	1.34	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	66%	1.28	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	9%	9.50	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	63%	1.33	✗ lost
Mackenzie Stiller wins by KO or Sub	17%	5.00	✗ lost
Katlyn Cerminara wins by KO/TKO in R2	3%	23.00	✗ lost
Katlyn Cerminara wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	5%	15.00	✗ lost
Katlyn Cerminara wins	56%	1.38	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission	16%	4.60	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	3%	23.00	✗ lost
Katlyn Cerminara wins by Submission in R3	1%	51.00	✗ lost
Katlyn Cerminara wins by Sub or Decision	45%	1.55	✗ lost
Katlyn Cerminara wins by KO or Decision	47%	1.47	✓ won
Katlyn Cerminara wins in R3+ or by Decision	39%	1.59	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	6%	10.50	✗ lost
Katlyn Cerminara wins by DEC	36%	1.68	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	5%	12.00	✗ lost
Katlyn Cerminara wins by KO/TKO in R3	2%	31.00	✗ lost
Mackenzie Stiller wins by Submission in R1	4%	12.00	✗ lost
Mackenzie Stiller wins by Submission in R1 or R2	6%	7.50	✗ lost
Mackenzie Stiller wins by SUB	8%	6.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	3%	15.00	✗ lost
Mackenzie Stiller wins by Submission in R2	2%	16.00	✗ lost
Mackenzie Stiller wins by Submission in R3	1%	19.00	✗ lost

Chad Anheliger

13-8-0

Winner

Steven Koslow

SUB · R3

✓ predicted

Steven Koslow

6-1-0

Model Prediction

Chad Anheliger 37%

KO 12%· Sub 7%· Dec 18%

Steven Koslow ✓ won 63%

KO 8%· Sub 29%· Dec 26%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Steven Koslow wins	62%	1.54	✓ predicted
Method Steven Koslow wins by Submission	29%	2.35	✓ predicted
Finish round Finish in Round 1	30%	—	missed

Every Sportsbet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Steven Koslow wins by DEC value	26%	5.70	✗ lost
Steven Koslow wins by Decision	26%	5.50	✗ lost
Steven Koslow wins by KO or Decision	34%	3.90	✗ lost
Chad Anheliger wins by Submission in R1	4%	29.00	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	44%	2.53	✗ lost
Chad Anheliger wins by Submission in R1 or R2	6%	18.00	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	44%	2.45	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	49%	2.20	—
Fight reaches Round 3	53%	1.93	✓ won
Chad Anheliger wins by SUB	7%	14.00	✗ lost
Chad Anheliger wins by KO or Sub	20%	5.00	✗ lost
Steven Koslow wins	62%	1.54	✓ won
Chad Anheliger wins	38%	2.48	✗ lost
Chad Anheliger wins by Submission in R2	2%	41.00	✗ lost
Chad Anheliger wins by Sub or Decision	25%	3.50	✗ lost
Chad Anheliger wins by finish in Round 1	10%	8.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	11%	8.25	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	20%	4.40	✗ lost
Chad Anheliger wins by KO/TKO in R1	7%	13.00	✗ lost
Chad Anheliger wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	10%	8.25	✗ lost
Finish before Round 2	30%	2.85	✗ lost
Chad Anheliger wins by KO or Decision	31%	2.75	✗ lost
Chad Anheliger wins by KO/TKO	12%	6.75	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	56%	1.48	✓ won
Under 2.5 rounds	51%	1.61	—
Chad Anheliger wins by DEC	18%	4.30	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	17%	4.60	✗ lost
Chad Anheliger wins by Submission in R2 or R3	3%	23.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	36%	2.12	✓ won
Steven Koslow wins by KO/TKO	8%	10.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	19%	3.90	✗ lost
Chad Anheliger wins by Decision	18%	4.00	✗ lost
Steven Koslow wins by KO or Sub	36%	2.00	✓ won
Steven Koslow wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	6%	11.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	6%	12.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	11%	6.50	✗ lost
Steven Koslow wins by Submission in R1 or R2	24%	2.85	✗ lost
Steven Koslow wins by KO/TKO in R1	4%	17.00	✗ lost
Steven Koslow wins by finish in Round 1	19%	3.50	✗ lost
Steven Koslow wins by SUB	29%	2.35	✓ won
Chad Anheliger wins by KO/TKO in R2	4%	18.00	✗ lost
Steven Koslow wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	3%	19.00	✗ lost
Steven Koslow wins by Submission in R1	15%	4.30	✗ lost
Chad Anheliger wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	6%	11.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	9%	7.25	✓ won
Steven Koslow wins by KO/TKO in R2	2%	29.00	✗ lost
Chad Anheliger wins by finish in Round 1	10%	6.25	✗ lost
Steven Koslow wins by KO or Sub	36%	1.74	✓ won
Steven Koslow wins by Submission in R2	9%	7.25	✗ lost
Chad Anheliger wins by Submission in R3	1%	51.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	6%	10.00	✓ won
Steven Koslow wins by KO/TKO in R3	1%	46.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	3%	17.00	✗ lost
Steven Koslow wins by Submission in R3	5%	11.50	✓ won
Chad Anheliger wins by KO/TKO in R3	2%	23.00	✗ lost
Steven Koslow wins by finish in Round 1	19%	2.35	✗ lost

Chelsea Chandler

6-4-0

Winner

Chelsea Chandler

SUB · R1

✗ wrong

Melissa Croden

8-3-0

Model Prediction

Chelsea Chandler ✓ won 16%

KO 3%· Sub 3%· Dec 9%

Melissa Croden 84%

KO 15%· Sub 8%· Dec 61%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Melissa Croden wins	79%	1.26	missed
Method Melissa Croden wins by Decision value	58%	2.35	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	70%	1.76	missed

Every Sportsbet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Melissa Croden wins by Decision value	58%	2.37	✗ lost
Melissa Croden wins by DEC value	58%	2.35	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	70%	1.76	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	70%	1.75	✗ lost
Melissa Croden wins by Sub or Decision value	65%	1.80	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	73%	1.57	✗ lost
Melissa Croden wins by KO or Decision	72%	1.49	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 3	76%	1.41	✗ lost
Melissa Croden wins	79%	1.26	✗ lost
Chelsea Chandler wins in R3+ or by Decision	16%	5.60	✗ lost
Chelsea Chandler wins by Sub or Decision	17%	5.00	✓ won
Chelsea Chandler wins	21%	3.90	✓ won
Chelsea Chandler wins by DEC	12%	6.50	✗ lost
Finish before Round 2	15%	5.20	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 1	15%	5.10	✓ won
Chelsea Chandler wins by KO or Decision	17%	4.50	✗ lost
Melissa Croden wins by KO/TKO in R1	7%	10.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	6%	12.00	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	9%	7.50	✗ lost
Chelsea Chandler wins by Submission in R1	2%	31.00	✓ won
Chelsea Chandler wins by Submission in R1 or R2	4%	19.00	✓ won
Chelsea Chandler wins by KO or Sub	9%	7.50	✓ won
Chelsea Chandler wins by SUB	4%	15.00	✓ won
Melissa Croden wins by Submission in R1	4%	17.00	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	27%	2.25	✓ won
Fight ends before decision	30%	1.98	✓ won
Melissa Croden wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	11%	5.25	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	12%	5.10	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO	18%	3.00	✗ lost
Chelsea Chandler wins by Submission in R2	1%	41.00	✗ lost
Melissa Croden wins by KO/TKO	14%	3.80	✗ lost
Melissa Croden wins by KO or Sub	21%	2.50	✗ lost
Melissa Croden wins by Submission in R1 or R2	6%	9.00	✗ lost
Chelsea Chandler wins by KO/TKO in R1	2%	23.00	✗ lost
Chelsea Chandler wins by KO/TKO	5%	11.50	✗ lost
Chelsea Chandler wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	4%	14.00	✗ lost
Melissa Croden wins by SUB	7%	6.75	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	9%	5.10	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	4%	12.50	✗ lost
Chelsea Chandler wins by KO/TKO in R2	1%	31.00	✗ lost
Chelsea Chandler wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	2%	19.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	6%	7.50	✗ lost
Chelsea Chandler wins by Submission in R3	1%	51.00	✗ lost
Melissa Croden wins by KO/TKO in R2	4%	9.00	✗ lost
Melissa Croden wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	7%	5.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	6%	6.50	✗ lost
Chelsea Chandler wins by KO/TKO in R3	1%	41.00	✗ lost
Melissa Croden wins by Submission in R2 or R3	4%	9.50	✗ lost
Melissa Croden wins by Submission in R2	2%	15.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	3%	9.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	2%	15.00	✗ lost
Melissa Croden wins by KO/TKO in R3	3%	11.00	✗ lost
Melissa Croden wins by Submission in R3	1%	19.00	✗ lost

SuYoung You

16-4-0

Winner

SuYoung You

SUB · R3

Cody Chovancek

1-0-0

Model Prediction dead even — no pick

SuYoung You ✓ won 50%

KO 15%· Sub 8%· Dec 28%

Cody Chovancek 50%

KO 10%· Sub 12%· Dec 28%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Cody Chovancek wins	52%	1.78	missed
Method Cody Chovancek wins by Decision	30%	3.20	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	56%	2.23	missed

Every Sportsbet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
SuYoung You wins by KO/TKO in R1	8%	31.00	✗ lost
SuYoung You wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	12%	19.00	✗ lost
SuYoung You wins by KO/TKO	14%	14.00	✗ lost
SuYoung You wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	7%	23.00	✗ lost
SuYoung You wins by KO/TKO in R2	4%	34.00	✗ lost
Cody Chovancek wins by Submission in R1	7%	21.00	✗ lost
Cody Chovancek wins by Submission in R1 or R2	10%	13.00	✗ lost
Cody Chovancek wins by SUB	12%	10.50	✗ lost
SuYoung You wins by KO/TKO in R3	2%	51.00	✗ lost
Finish before Round 2	24%	4.80	✗ lost
SuYoung You wins by KO or Sub	21%	5.25	✓ won
Cody Chovancek wins by Sub or Decision	42%	2.60	✗ lost
Cody Chovancek wins by Submission in R2	4%	29.00	✗ lost
SuYoung You wins by finish in Round 1	11%	9.50	✗ lost
SuYoung You wins by KO or Decision	40%	2.65	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	13%	8.00	✗ lost
Cody Chovancek wins by Submission in R2 or R3	6%	18.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	10%	9.75	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	40%	2.50	—
SuYoung You wins	48%	2.08	✓ won
Fight ends before decision	44%	2.23	✓ won
Cody Chovancek wins by DEC	30%	3.20	✗ lost
Cody Chovancek wins	52%	1.78	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	24%	3.80	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	20%	4.70	✓ won
Fight goes to decision	56%	1.61	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	56%	1.60	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	60%	1.50	—
Fight reaches Round 2	76%	1.16	✓ won
Cody Chovancek wins in R3+ or by Decision	33%	2.65	✗ lost
SuYoung You wins by Decision	26%	3.20	✗ lost
SuYoung You wins by DEC	26%	3.10	✗ lost
Cody Chovancek wins by KO or Sub	23%	3.50	✗ lost
Cody Chovancek wins by finish in Round 1	12%	6.50	✗ lost
Cody Chovancek wins by KO or Decision	40%	1.99	✗ lost
SuYoung You wins by finish in Round 1	11%	6.75	✗ lost
SuYoung You wins by Sub or Decision	34%	2.25	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	7%	10.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	6%	12.00	✗ lost
Cody Chovancek wins by Submission in R3	2%	34.00	✗ lost
SuYoung You wins by finish in Round 2	6%	10.00	✗ lost
Cody Chovancek wins by finish in Round 2	7%	8.50	✗ lost
SuYoung You wins by Submission in R1	4%	15.00	✗ lost
Cody Chovancek wins by finish in Round 1	12%	4.50	✗ lost
Cody Chovancek wins by KO/TKO in R1	6%	9.75	✗ lost
SuYoung You wins by finish in Round 1	11%	4.80	✗ lost
SuYoung You wins by Submission in R1 or R2	6%	9.00	✗ lost
Cody Chovancek wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	9%	6.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	4%	13.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	3%	16.00	✓ won
Cody Chovancek wins by KO/TKO	10%	4.80	✗ lost
SuYoung You wins by SUB	7%	7.00	✓ won
Cody Chovancek wins by KO/TKO in R2	3%	12.50	✗ lost
Cody Chovancek wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	5%	8.00	✗ lost
SuYoung You wins by Submission in R2	2%	18.00	✗ lost
SuYoung You wins by finish in Round 2	6%	6.00	✗ lost
Cody Chovancek wins by KO/TKO in R3	2%	17.00	✗ lost
SuYoung You wins by finish in Round 3	3%	8.00	✓ won
SuYoung You wins by Submission in R3	1%	23.00	✓ won