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Track record
Every pick, graded
What the model said before each fight, what happened, and the locked bets it would have placed. Losses stay on the page.
77 of 111
confident picks landed — when the model gives a fighter 70%+ it has been right 69% of the time
20–30
betting record with the same amount on every recommended bet (-2.3 units — early days, small sample)
Bankroll curve
+$852
2026-06-15
peak $990 · trough $-1008
2026-10-31
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland 9/13 · 69%
2026-05-09
Model Prediction
Sean Strickland
✓ won
25%
KO 8%·
Sub 2%·
Dec 15%
Khamzat Chimaev
75%
KO 25%·
Sub 22%·
Dec 29%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Khamzat Chimaev wins value | 75% | 1.81 | missed |
| Finish round Finish in Round 1 | 24% | — | missed |
Model Prediction
Tatsuro Taira
49%
KO 11%·
Sub 23%·
Dec 15%
Joshua Van
✓ won
51%
KO 25%·
Sub 3%·
Dec 22%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Joshua Van wins value | 51% | 2.30 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Joshua Van wins by KO/TKO | 25% | 4.10 | ✓ predicted |
| Finish round Finish in Round 1 | 34% | — | missed |
40-11-0
Winner
Alexander Volkov
Decision (U) · R3
✓ predicted
17-3-0
Model Prediction
Alexander Volkov
✓ won
52%
KO 12%·
Sub 7%·
Dec 33%
Waldo Cortes Acosta
48%
KO 18%·
Sub 3%·
Dec 27%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Alexander Volkov wins | 52% | 1.79 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Alexander Volkov wins by Decision | 33% | 2.65 | ✓ predicted |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 60% | 2.37 | ✓ predicted |
Model Prediction
Joaquin Buckley
46%
KO 23%·
Sub 0%·
Dec 23%
Sean Brady
✓ won
54%
KO 5%·
Sub 9%·
Dec 40%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Sean Brady wins value | 54% | 2.38 | ✓ predicted |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 63% | — | ✓ predicted |
Model Prediction
Jeremy Stephens
30%
KO 8%·
Sub 0%·
Dec 22%
King Green
✓ won
70%
KO 29%·
Sub 5%·
Dec 36%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner King Green wins | 70% | 1.23 | ✓ predicted |
| Method King Green wins by Decision | 36% | 2.15 | missed |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 58% | 1.80 | missed |
Model Prediction
Ozzy Diaz
27%
KO 7%·
Sub 1%·
Dec 19%
Ateba Gautier
✓ won
73%
KO 32%·
Sub 10%·
Dec 31%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Ateba Gautier wins | 73% | 1.07 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Ateba Gautier wins by KO/TKO | 32% | 1.29 | ✓ predicted |
| Finish round Finish in Round 1 | 28% | — | missed |
Model Prediction
Yaroslav Amosov
✓ won
56%
KO 11%·
Sub 24%·
Dec 21%
Joel Álvarez
44%
KO 13%·
Sub 9%·
Dec 23%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Yaroslav Amosov wins | 56% | 1.54 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Yaroslav Amosov wins by Submission | 24% | 6.25 | ✓ predicted |
| Finish round Finish in Round 1 | 27% | — | missed |
Model Prediction
Grant Dawson
✓ won
64%
KO 10%·
Sub 21%·
Dec 34%
Mateusz Rębecki
36%
KO 9%·
Sub 5%·
Dec 23%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Grant Dawson wins value | 64% | 2.50 | ✓ predicted |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 57% | — | missed |
Model Prediction
Jim Miller
✓ won
31%
KO 6%·
Sub 8%·
Dec 17%
Jared Gordon
69%
KO 18%·
Sub 4%·
Dec 47%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Jared Gordon wins | 69% | 1.34 | missed |
| Method Jared Gordon wins by Decision | 47% | 2.10 | missed |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 64% | 1.64 | missed |
Model Prediction
Roman Kopylov
✓ won
46%
KO 23%·
Sub 7%·
Dec 16%
Marco Tulio
54%
KO 15%·
Sub 4%·
Dec 35%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Marco Tulio wins | 54% | 1.55 | missed |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 51% | — | ✓ predicted |
Model Prediction
Pat Sabatini
✓ won
46%
KO 5%·
Sub 17%·
Dec 23%
William Gomis
54%
KO 18%·
Sub 4%·
Dec 32%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner William Gomis wins value | 54% | 3.35 | missed |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 55% | — | ✓ predicted |
Model Prediction
Djorden Santos
24%
KO 7%·
Sub 4%·
Dec 13%
Baisangur Susurkaev
✓ won
76%
KO 18%·
Sub 20%·
Dec 38%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Baisangur Susurkaev wins | 76% | 1.12 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Baisangur Susurkaev wins by Decision | 38% | 3.10 | missed |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 51% | 2.65 | missed |
Model Prediction
Clayton Carpenter
46%
KO 11%·
Sub 15%·
Dec 20%
Jose Ochoa
✓ won
54%
KO 10%·
Sub 6%·
Dec 38%