UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland — Results & Recap

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34 / 43

Correct Picks

79.1% accuracy · 4 events

−$99

Parlay P&L

$33 / parlay (2·3·4-leg) · 0-3 · 3 parlays

−$116

Running P&L · opening

$1000 / event · Balanced · Kelly-weighted · closing: +$380

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Josh Hokit wins by KO or Decision	Derrick Lewis vs Josh Hokit	1.78	$331	✓ won +$258
Ilia Topuria wins by DEC	Justin Gaethje vs Ilia Topuria	13.00	$259	✗ lost −$259
Steve Garcia wins	Steve Garcia vs Diego Lopes	2.48	$237	✗ lost −$237
Bo Nickal wins by KO or Decision	Kyle Daukaus vs Bo Nickal	1.71	$172	✓ won +$122

UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland 9/13 · 69%

2026-05-09

Sean Strickland

31-7-0

Winner

Sean Strickland

Decision (S) · R5

✗ wrong

Khamzat Chimaev

15-1-0

▼

Model Prediction

Sean Strickland ✓ won 25%

KO 8%· Sub 2%· Dec 15%

Khamzat Chimaev 75%

KO 25%· Sub 22%· Dec 29%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Khamzat Chimaev wins value	75%	1.81	missed
Finish round Finish in Round 1	24%	—	missed

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Sean Strickland takedowns over 1.5 value	10%	23.00	—
Khamzat Chimaev wins value	75%	1.81	✗ lost
Sean Strickland wins	25%	1.90	✓ won
Total takedowns over 4.5	23%	1.67	—
Total takedowns over 5.5	13%	2.00	—
Total takedowns over 6.5	4%	2.37	—

Tatsuro Taira

18-2-0

Winner

Joshua Van

KO/TKO · R5

✓ predicted

Joshua Van

17-2-0

▼

Model Prediction

Tatsuro Taira 49%

KO 11%· Sub 23%· Dec 15%

Joshua Van ✓ won 51%

KO 25%· Sub 3%· Dec 22%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Joshua Van wins value	51%	2.30	✓ predicted
Method Joshua Van wins by KO/TKO	25%	4.10	✓ predicted
Finish round Finish in Round 1	34%	—	missed

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Joshua Van wins by finish in Round 1 value	15%	12.50	✗ lost
Joshua Van wins by Submission in R1	2%	101.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	20%	9.25	✗ lost
Joshua Van wins by KO/TKO in R1 value	14%	13.00	✗ lost
Finish before Round 2 value	34%	4.65	✗ lost
Joshua Van wins by Submission in R1 or R2	2%	61.00	✗ lost
Joshua Van wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2 value	18%	8.00	✗ lost
Tatsuro Taira wins by KO/TKO in R1	6%	23.00	✗ lost
Tatsuro Taira wins by finish in Round 1 value	18%	6.75	✗ lost
Joshua Van takedowns over 0.5 value	24%	5.00	—
Joshua Van wins by Sub or Decision	26%	4.60	✗ lost
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	55%	2.16	✓ won
Joshua Van wins value	51%	2.30	✓ won
Joshua Van wins by DEC	22%	5.10	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	14%	8.00	✗ lost
Joshua Van takedowns over 1.5	13%	9.00	—
Joshua Van wins by KO or Decision value	48%	2.35	✓ won
Tatsuro Taira wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	8%	14.00	✗ lost
Joshua Van wins by KO or Sub	29%	3.75	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO	36%	2.95	✓ won
Tatsuro Taira wins by Submission in R1	12%	8.50	✗ lost
Joshua Van wins by KO/TKO	25%	4.10	✓ won
Joshua Van wins by SUB	3%	31.00	✗ lost
Tatsuro Taira wins by KO/TKO	11%	9.00	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	63%	1.52	✓ won
Joshua Van wins in R4+ or by Decision	26%	3.50	✓ won
Fight goes to decision	37%	2.42	✗ lost
Tatsuro Taira wins by Submission in R1 or R2	17%	5.40	✗ lost
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	55%	1.64	✓ won
Tatsuro Taira significant strikes over 19.5	76%	1.17	—
Fight goes to Decision	37%	2.35	✗ lost
Tatsuro Taira significant strikes over 29.5	65%	1.33	—
Joshua Van significant strikes over 19.5	79%	1.08	—
Joshua Van wins by finish in Round 1	15%	5.50	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 49.5	72%	1.15	—
Tatsuro Taira significant strikes over 39.5	53%	1.53	—
Tatsuro Taira wins by KO or Sub	34%	2.40	✗ lost
Tatsuro Taira wins	49%	1.63	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 0.5	75%	1.06	—
Tatsuro Taira wins by KO or Decision	26%	3.05	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 5	40%	1.98	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 59.5	65%	1.20	—
Fight ends by Submission	26%	2.95	✗ lost
Joshua Van significant strikes over 29.5	68%	1.14	—
Joshua Van wins by Submission in R2 or R3	1%	71.00	✗ lost
Joshua Van wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	8%	9.25	✗ lost
Joshua Van wins by Submission in R2	1%	126.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	7%	11.50	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 1.5	58%	1.28	—
Total significant strikes over 69.5	59%	1.26	—
Joshua Van wins by finish in Round 2	5%	14.00	✗ lost
Tatsuro Taira wins by SUB	23%	3.15	✗ lost
Tatsuro Taira significant strikes over 49.5	42%	1.72	—
Tatsuro Taira wins by Sub or Decision	38%	1.89	✗ lost
Joshua Van significant strikes over 39.5	57%	1.25	—
Joshua Van wins by KO/TKO in R2	5%	15.00	✗ lost
Tatsuro Taira wins by KO/TKO in R2, R3 or R4	5%	15.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	5%	13.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	9%	7.50	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 79.5	52%	1.32	—
Tatsuro Taira takedowns over 0.5	63%	1.08	—
Tatsuro Taira wins by KO/TKO in R3	2%	41.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 89.5	47%	1.39	—
Tatsuro Taira wins by DEC	15%	4.30	✗ lost
Joshua Van significant strikes over 49.5	48%	1.33	—
Joshua Van wins by KO/TKO in R3	4%	17.00	✗ lost
Tatsuro Taira wins by KO/TKO in R2	2%	31.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 99.5	43%	1.45	—
Tatsuro Taira wins by finish in Round 1	18%	3.25	✗ lost
Joshua Van significant strikes over 59.5	41%	1.45	—
Tatsuro Taira wins by finish in Round 2	6%	9.50	✗ lost
Tatsuro Taira significant strikes over 59.5	31%	1.91	—
Joshua Van wins by KO/TKO in R3 or R4	6%	9.75	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 109.5	38%	1.52	—
Tatsuro Taira wins in R4+ or by Decision	19%	2.95	✗ lost
Tatsuro Taira takedowns over 1.5	43%	1.33	—
Total takedowns over 2.5	39%	1.45	—
Joshua Van wins by Submission in R3 or R4	1%	71.00	✗ lost
Tatsuro Taira wins by Submission in R2 or R3	8%	7.25	✗ lost
Tatsuro Taira wins by KO/TKO in R3, R4 or R5	3%	18.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 119.5	34%	1.60	—
Joshua Van significant strikes over 69.5	34%	1.57	—
Fight ends by Submission in R2	5%	11.00	✗ lost
Tatsuro Taira wins by Submission in R2	4%	12.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	4%	13.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 129.5	29%	1.68	—
Tatsuro Taira wins by Submission in R3 or R4	6%	8.75	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 4	6%	8.25	✗ lost
Joshua Van significant strikes over 79.5	28%	1.72	—
Tatsuro Taira wins by Submission in R3	3%	14.00	✗ lost
Tatsuro Taira significant strikes over 69.5	21%	2.25	—
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R4	3%	14.00	✗ lost
Tatsuro Taira wins by KO/TKO in R4	1%	46.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 139.5	25%	1.77	—
Joshua Van significant strikes over 89.5	23%	1.91	—
Joshua Van wins by KO/TKO in R4	2%	18.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R4	2%	16.00	✗ lost
Tatsuro Taira takedowns over 2.5	26%	1.50	—
Total significant strikes over 149.5	20%	1.87	—
Joshua Van significant strikes over 99.5	19%	2.00	—
Total takedowns over 3.5	22%	1.66	—
Tatsuro Taira wins by Submission in R4	2%	17.00	✗ lost
Joshua Van significant strikes over 109.5	15%	2.30	—
Tatsuro Taira significant strikes over 79.5	13%	2.63	—
Joshua Van wins by KO/TKO in R4 or R5	3%	10.00	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 159.5	16%	1.98	—
Tatsuro Taira wins by Submission in R4 or R5	3%	10.00	✗ lost
Tatsuro Taira takedowns over 3.5	17%	1.72	—
Joshua Van significant strikes over 119.5	11%	2.60	—
Total takedowns over 4.5	13%	2.00	—
Total significant strikes over 169.5	11%	2.10	—
Fight ends by finish in Round 5	2%	9.25	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R5	1%	15.00	✓ won
Joshua Van takedowns over 2.5	1%	17.00	—
Joshua Van significant strikes over 129.5	7%	2.88	—
Tatsuro Taira takedowns over 4.5	9%	2.10	—
Joshua Van wins by KO/TKO in R5	1%	19.00	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission in R5	1%	18.00	✗ lost
Tatsuro Taira wins by Submission in R5	1%	19.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 179.5	7%	2.25	—
Tatsuro Taira significant strikes over 89.5	5%	3.00	—
Joshua Van significant strikes over 139.5	3%	3.25	—
Total takedowns over 5.5	4%	2.30	—
Total significant strikes over 189.5	2%	2.35	—
Total knockdowns over 0.5	2%	1.86	—

Alexander Volkov

40-11-0

Winner

Alexander Volkov

Decision (U) · R3

✓ predicted

Waldo Cortes Acosta

17-3-0

▼

Model Prediction

Alexander Volkov ✓ won 52%

KO 12%· Sub 7%· Dec 33%

Waldo Cortes Acosta 48%

KO 18%· Sub 3%· Dec 27%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Alexander Volkov wins	52%	1.79	✓ predicted
Method Alexander Volkov wins by Decision	33%	2.65	✓ predicted
Finish round Goes the distance	60%	2.37	✓ predicted

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Alexander Volkov wins by Submission in R1 or R2	6%	26.00	✗ lost
Alexander Volkov wins by SUB	7%	21.00	✗ lost
Alexander Volkov wins by Submission in R1	3%	41.00	✗ lost
Alexander Volkov wins by Submission in R2	2%	51.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	10%	12.50	✗ lost
Alexander Volkov wins by Submission in R2 or R3	4%	34.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	4%	31.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	5%	23.00	✗ lost
Finish before Round 3	34%	3.04	✗ lost
Waldo Cortes Acosta takedowns over 0.5	42%	2.40	—
Waldo Cortes Acosta wins	48%	2.07	✗ lost
Waldo Cortes Acosta wins in R3+ or by Decision	33%	3.05	✗ lost
Waldo Cortes Acosta wins by Sub or Decision	30%	3.25	✗ lost
Waldo Cortes Acosta wins by KO or Decision	45%	2.12	✗ lost
Waldo Cortes Acosta significant strikes over 59.5	48%	2.00	—
Fight ends by finish in Round 1	19%	4.90	✗ lost
Waldo Cortes Acosta wins by DEC	27%	3.50	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	40%	2.37	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 2	81%	1.15	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	14%	6.50	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	65%	1.44	✓ won
Under 2.5 rounds	35%	2.62	✗ lost
Waldo Cortes Acosta significant strikes over 49.5	57%	1.62	—
Alexander Volkov wins	52%	1.79	✓ won
Fight goes to decision	60%	1.54	✓ won
Fight goes to Decision	60%	1.53	✓ won
Waldo Cortes Acosta significant strikes over 19.5	83%	1.10	—
Alexander Volkov wins by Decision	33%	2.75	✓ won
Waldo Cortes Acosta wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	15%	5.90	✗ lost
Waldo Cortes Acosta significant strikes over 39.5	66%	1.36	—
Waldo Cortes Acosta significant strikes over 29.5	74%	1.20	—
Waldo Cortes Acosta wins by KO or Sub	21%	4.20	✗ lost
Alexander Volkov wins by KO or Sub	19%	4.75	✗ lost
Alexander Volkov significant strikes over 19.5	82%	1.07	—
Alexander Volkov wins by Submission in R3	1%	81.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 49.5	80%	1.10	—
Alexander Volkov wins by DEC	33%	2.65	✓ won
Waldo Cortes Acosta wins by KO/TKO	18%	4.80	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 59.5	75%	1.15	—
Total significant strikes over 69.5	70%	1.21	—
Waldo Cortes Acosta wins by KO/TKO in R2	7%	13.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 79.5	66%	1.28	—
Alexander Volkov wins by KO or Decision	45%	1.87	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 89.5	61%	1.37	—
Total significant strikes over 99.5	56%	1.47	—
Total significant strikes over 109.5	52%	1.60	—
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	14%	5.70	✗ lost
Alexander Volkov significant strikes over 29.5	72%	1.14	—
Waldo Cortes Acosta wins by Submission in R1 or R2	3%	31.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 119.5	46%	1.76	—
Waldo Cortes Acosta wins by KO/TKO in R1	9%	9.25	✗ lost
Alexander Volkov significant strikes over 39.5	63%	1.28	—
Fight ends by KO/TKO	30%	2.70	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	11%	7.50	✗ lost
Waldo Cortes Acosta wins by Submission in R2	1%	71.00	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 0.5	59%	1.36	—
Alexander Volkov significant strikes over 49.5	54%	1.45	—
Total significant strikes over 129.5	40%	1.93	—
Waldo Cortes Acosta wins by Submission in R1	2%	51.00	✗ lost
Waldo Cortes Acosta wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	9%	8.25	✗ lost
Waldo Cortes Acosta significant strikes over 69.5	31%	2.40	—
Total significant strikes over 139.5	34%	2.15	—
Alexander Volkov significant strikes over 59.5	43%	1.72	—
Fight ends by Submission in R3	2%	46.00	✗ lost
Waldo Cortes Acosta wins by SUB	3%	23.00	✗ lost
Alexander Volkov wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	10%	7.00	✗ lost
Waldo Cortes Acosta takedowns over 1.5	15%	4.50	—
Total significant strikes over 149.5	28%	2.40	—
Alexander Volkov wins by KO/TKO	12%	5.70	✗ lost
Alexander Volkov wins by KO/TKO in R1	6%	11.50	✗ lost
Alexander Volkov takedowns over 0.5	36%	1.80	—
Total takedowns over 1.5	35%	1.82	—
Alexander Volkov significant strikes over 69.5	30%	2.00	—
Alexander Volkov wins by KO/TKO in R2	4%	14.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	6%	9.25	✗ lost
Alexander Volkov wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	6%	9.25	✗ lost
Waldo Cortes Acosta wins by KO/TKO in R3	3%	18.00	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 2.5	22%	2.35	—
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	5%	10.50	✗ lost
Waldo Cortes Acosta significant strikes over 79.5	16%	3.10	—
Alexander Volkov wins by KO or Sub	19%	2.40	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 3.5	14%	3.15	—
Alexander Volkov significant strikes over 79.5	17%	2.40	—
Alexander Volkov wins by KO/TKO in R3	2%	19.00	✗ lost
Alexander Volkov takedowns over 1.5	14%	2.37	—
Total takedowns over 4.5	6%	4.30	—
Alexander Volkov significant strikes over 89.5	5%	3.00	—
Total knockdowns over 0.5	2%	1.68	—
Waldo Cortes Acosta significant strikes over 89.5	1%	4.00	—

Joaquin Buckley

21-8-0

Winner

Sean Brady

Decision (U) · R3

✓ predicted

Sean Brady

19-2-0

▼

Model Prediction

Joaquin Buckley 46%

KO 23%· Sub 0%· Dec 23%

Sean Brady ✓ won 54%

KO 5%· Sub 9%· Dec 40%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Sean Brady wins value	54%	2.38	✓ predicted
Finish round Goes the distance	63%	—	✓ predicted

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Sean Brady wins value	54%	2.38	✓ won
Joaquin Buckley wins	46%	1.59	✗ lost

Jeremy Stephens

29-23-0

Winner

King Green

SUB · R1

✓ predicted

King Green

35-17-1

▼

Model Prediction

Jeremy Stephens 30%

KO 8%· Sub 0%· Dec 22%

King Green ✓ won 70%

KO 29%· Sub 5%· Dec 36%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner King Green wins	70%	1.23	✓ predicted
Method King Green wins by Decision	36%	2.15	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	58%	1.80	missed

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Jeremy Stephens wins by DEC value	22%	10.00	✗ lost
Jeremy Stephens wins by Decision value	22%	9.50	✗ lost
Jeremy Stephens wins by Sub or Decision value	22%	8.50	✗ lost
Jeremy Stephens takedowns over 1.5 value	22%	6.00	—
Jeremy Stephens wins by KO or Decision value	30%	4.30	✗ lost
Jeremy Stephens wins value	30%	4.20	✗ lost
Jeremy Stephens takedowns over 0.5 value	42%	2.88	—
King Green wins by KO/TKO in R1	15%	7.75	✗ lost
King Green wins by finish in Round 1	18%	6.00	✓ won
Fight reaches Round 3	71%	1.49	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	65%	1.61	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	58%	1.80	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	58%	1.79	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	19%	5.30	✗ lost
King Green wins by KO/TKO	29%	3.50	✗ lost
King Green wins by KO/TKO in R3	8%	12.50	✗ lost
Finish before Round 2	22%	4.30	✓ won
King Green wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	21%	4.50	✗ lost
King Green wins by KO or Sub	34%	2.70	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	10%	9.00	✗ lost
King Green wins in R3+ or by Decision	50%	1.82	✗ lost
Jeremy Stephens significant strikes over 19.5	77%	1.17	—
King Green wins by KO or Decision	65%	1.36	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 49.5	77%	1.15	—
King Green significant strikes over 19.5	82%	1.08	—
Jeremy Stephens significant strikes over 29.5	65%	1.36	—
Jeremy Stephens significant strikes over 49.5	42%	2.10	—
Total takedowns over 0.5	62%	1.41	—
King Green wins	70%	1.23	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO	37%	2.35	✗ lost
Jeremy Stephens significant strikes over 39.5	53%	1.62	—
Total significant strikes over 59.5	72%	1.19	—
Jeremy Stephens significant strikes over 59.5	30%	2.80	—
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	12%	7.25	✗ lost
King Green significant strikes over 29.5	74%	1.14	—
King Green significant strikes over 39.5	66%	1.25	—
Total significant strikes over 69.5	66%	1.25	—
Fight ends before decision	42%	1.93	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 79.5	61%	1.31	—
King Green wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	14%	5.70	✗ lost
King Green significant strikes over 49.5	59%	1.33	—
King Green wins by DEC	36%	2.15	✗ lost
King Green significant strikes over 59.5	51%	1.50	—
Under 2.5 rounds	35%	2.20	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 89.5	55%	1.39	—
Total takedowns over 1.5	39%	1.89	—
King Green wins by Sub or Decision	41%	1.81	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 99.5	50%	1.48	—
Jeremy Stephens significant strikes over 69.5	19%	3.75	—
Total significant strikes over 109.5	44%	1.61	—
Total significant strikes over 119.5	38%	1.78	—
King Green significant strikes over 69.5	39%	1.67	—
Total significant strikes over 129.5	32%	1.97	—
King Green wins by finish in Round 1	18%	3.50	✓ won
Total takedowns over 2.5	24%	2.50	—
King Green takedowns over 0.5	35%	1.72	—
Total significant strikes over 139.5	27%	2.20	—
King Green wins by Submission in R1	3%	21.00	✓ won
Total takedowns over 3.5	16%	3.45	—
King Green significant strikes over 79.5	26%	1.91	—
King Green wins by KO/TKO in R2	6%	8.75	✗ lost
King Green wins by SUB	5%	9.50	✓ won
Jeremy Stephens wins by KO/TKO in R1	4%	12.50	✗ lost
King Green wins by Submission in R3	1%	34.00	✗ lost
Jeremy Stephens wins by KO/TKO	8%	6.50	✗ lost
Jeremy Stephens wins by KO/TKO in R3	2%	23.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	3%	17.00	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	7%	6.50	✗ lost
King Green wins by Submission in R1 or R2	4%	12.00	✓ won
Jeremy Stephens wins by KO or Sub	8%	5.80	✗ lost
Jeremy Stephens wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	5%	8.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	8%	5.25	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	5%	8.00	✓ won
King Green takedowns over 1.5	18%	2.30	—
Total takedowns over 4.5	8%	4.75	—
Jeremy Stephens wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	4%	11.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	1%	26.00	✗ lost
Jeremy Stephens wins by finish in Round 1	4%	9.50	✗ lost
King Green wins by Submission in R2 or R3	2%	15.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 149.5	15%	2.45	—
Jeremy Stephens significant strikes over 79.5	7%	5.00	—
Jeremy Stephens wins by finish in Round 1	4%	7.25	✗ lost
Jeremy Stephens wins by KO/TKO in R2	1%	18.00	✗ lost
King Green takedowns over 2.5	8%	3.10	—
King Green wins by Submission in R2	1%	23.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	1%	19.00	✗ lost
Total knockdowns over 0.5	2%	1.61	—
Total significant strikes over 159.5	1%	2.85	—

Ozzy Diaz

10-3-0

Winner

Ateba Gautier

KO/TKO · R2

✓ predicted

Ateba Gautier

11-1-0

▼

Model Prediction

Ozzy Diaz 27%

KO 7%· Sub 1%· Dec 19%

Ateba Gautier ✓ won 73%

KO 32%· Sub 10%· Dec 31%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Ateba Gautier wins	73%	1.07	✓ predicted
Method Ateba Gautier wins by KO/TKO	32%	1.29	✓ predicted
Finish round Finish in Round 1	28%	—	missed

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Ozzy Diaz wins by DEC value	19%	16.00	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision value	50%	6.00	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision value	50%	5.90	✗ lost
Ateba Gautier wins by DEC value	31%	9.25	✗ lost
Ateba Gautier wins by Decision value	31%	8.50	✗ lost
Ozzy Diaz wins by Sub or Decision value	20%	12.50	✗ lost
Ozzy Diaz wins by KO or Decision value	26%	9.25	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 3 value	56%	4.25	✗ lost
Ozzy Diaz wins value	27%	8.60	✗ lost
Ozzy Diaz wins by Decision value	19%	12.00	✗ lost
Ateba Gautier wins by Sub or Decision value	41%	5.20	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds value	53%	3.00	✗ lost
Ozzy Diaz wins by KO/TKO in R1	4%	34.00	✗ lost
Ozzy Diaz wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	6%	21.00	✗ lost
Ateba Gautier wins by Submission in R2 or R3	4%	29.00	✗ lost
Ateba Gautier wins by Submission in R3	1%	101.00	✗ lost
Ozzy Diaz wins by KO/TKO	7%	17.00	✗ lost
Ateba Gautier wins by Submission in R2	3%	34.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	4%	29.00	✗ lost
Ozzy Diaz wins by KO or Sub	8%	13.00	✗ lost
Ozzy Diaz wins by KO/TKO in R2	2%	46.00	✗ lost
Ateba Gautier wins by SUB	10%	9.50	✗ lost
Ateba Gautier wins by Submission in R1 or R2	9%	10.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	11%	8.00	✗ lost
Ozzy Diaz wins by finish in Round 2	2%	34.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	1%	61.00	✗ lost
Ozzy Diaz wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	3%	26.00	✗ lost
Ateba Gautier wins	73%	1.07	✓ won
Ateba Gautier wins by Submission in R1	6%	12.50	✗ lost
Ateba Gautier wins by KO or Decision	62%	1.16	✓ won
Ozzy Diaz wins by finish in Round 1	4%	16.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	6%	11.00	✗ lost
Ozzy Diaz wins by finish in Round 1	4%	15.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	12%	5.30	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	6%	11.00	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	47%	1.36	✓ won
Ateba Gautier wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	14%	4.50	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	4%	13.00	✗ lost
Ateba Gautier wins by KO/TKO in R2	10%	5.75	✓ won
Ateba Gautier wins by KO/TKO in R3	4%	15.00	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	50%	1.11	✓ won
Finish before Round 3	44%	1.20	✓ won
Ateba Gautier wins by KO or Sub	42%	1.16	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO	38%	1.22	✓ won
Ozzy Diaz wins by KO/TKO in R3	1%	51.00	✗ lost
Ateba Gautier wins by KO/TKO	32%	1.29	✓ won
Ozzy Diaz wins by Submission in R1 or R2	1%	51.00	✗ lost
Ateba Gautier wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	28%	1.38	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	22%	1.72	✗ lost
Ateba Gautier wins by KO/TKO in R1	18%	1.71	✗ lost
Ateba Gautier wins by finish in Round 1	24%	1.24	✗ lost
Ozzy Diaz wins by SUB	1%	34.00	✗ lost

Yaroslav Amosov

29-1-0

Winner

Yaroslav Amosov

SUB · R2

✓ predicted

Joel Álvarez

23-4-0

▼

Model Prediction

Yaroslav Amosov ✓ won 56%

KO 11%· Sub 24%· Dec 21%

Joel Álvarez 44%

KO 13%· Sub 9%· Dec 23%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Yaroslav Amosov wins	56%	1.54	✓ predicted
Method Yaroslav Amosov wins by Submission value	24%	6.25	✓ predicted
Finish round Finish in Round 1	27%	—	missed

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Yaroslav Amosov wins by Submission in R1 or R2 value	20%	7.75	✓ won
Joel Álvarez wins by DEC value	23%	6.50	✗ lost
Yaroslav Amosov wins by SUB value	24%	6.25	✓ won
Yaroslav Amosov wins by Submission in R2	8%	17.00	✓ won
Joel Álvarez wins by Decision value	23%	6.00	✗ lost
Yaroslav Amosov wins by Submission in R1 value	11%	12.00	✗ lost
Joel Álvarez wins by KO or Decision value	36%	3.80	✗ lost
Yaroslav Amosov wins by Submission in R2 or R3	12%	10.50	✓ won
Yaroslav Amosov wins by KO or Sub value	35%	3.35	✓ won
Joel Álvarez wins value	44%	2.48	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	20%	5.30	✓ won
Finish before Round 3	47%	2.25	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission in R2	12%	9.00	✓ won
Joel Álvarez wins by Sub or Decision	31%	3.30	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	52%	2.00	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission	32%	3.20	✓ won
Joel Álvarez wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	11%	9.25	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	56%	1.80	✓ won
Joel Álvarez wins by KO/TKO	13%	7.75	✗ lost
Yaroslav Amosov wins by finish in Round 1	17%	6.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	16%	6.25	✗ lost
Joel Álvarez wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	7%	14.00	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 2	73%	1.25	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO	24%	3.75	✗ lost
Joel Álvarez wins by KO/TKO in R2	5%	19.00	✗ lost
Joel Álvarez wins by KO/TKO in R1	6%	14.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	9%	10.00	✗ lost
Yaroslav Amosov wins by Sub or Decision	44%	1.94	✓ won
Yaroslav Amosov wins	56%	1.54	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	12%	7.25	✗ lost
Yaroslav Amosov wins by Submission in R3	4%	23.00	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	44%	1.93	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	44%	1.92	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	48%	1.72	✗ lost
Joel Álvarez wins by KO or Sub	22%	3.50	✗ lost
Yaroslav Amosov wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	9%	7.75	✗ lost
Yaroslav Amosov wins by finish in Round 1	17%	4.25	✗ lost
Yaroslav Amosov wins by KO/TKO	11%	6.25	✗ lost
Joel Álvarez wins by KO/TKO in R3	2%	34.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	9%	7.75	✗ lost
Yaroslav Amosov wins by KO/TKO in R2	4%	17.00	✗ lost
Yaroslav Amosov wins in R3+ or by Decision	29%	2.25	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	5%	13.00	✗ lost
Yaroslav Amosov wins by KO/TKO in R1	5%	12.00	✗ lost
Joel Álvarez wins by finish in Round 1	10%	6.00	✗ lost
Yaroslav Amosov wins by KO or Decision	32%	1.94	✗ lost
Yaroslav Amosov wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	6%	10.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	4%	15.00	✗ lost
Yaroslav Amosov wins by DEC	21%	2.65	✗ lost
Joel Álvarez wins by SUB	9%	5.80	✗ lost
Joel Álvarez wins by Submission in R1 or R2	7%	6.75	✗ lost
Joel Álvarez wins by Submission in R2	3%	15.00	✗ lost
Joel Álvarez wins by finish in Round 1	10%	4.30	✗ lost
Joel Álvarez wins by Submission in R1	4%	10.50	✗ lost
Yaroslav Amosov wins by KO/TKO in R3	2%	23.00	✗ lost
Joel Álvarez wins by Submission in R3	1%	26.00	✗ lost

Grant Dawson

24-3-1

Winner

Grant Dawson

SUB · R3

✓ predicted

Mateusz Rębecki

20-5-0

▼

Model Prediction

Grant Dawson ✓ won 64%

KO 10%· Sub 21%· Dec 34%

Mateusz Rębecki 36%

KO 9%· Sub 5%· Dec 23%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Grant Dawson wins value	64%	2.50	✓ predicted
Finish round Goes the distance	57%	—	missed

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Grant Dawson wins value	64%	2.50	✓ won
Mateusz Rębecki wins	36%	1.47	✗ lost

Jim Miller

39-19-0

Winner

Jim Miller

SUB · R1

✗ wrong

Jared Gordon

21-9-0

▼

Model Prediction

Jim Miller ✓ won 31%

KO 6%· Sub 8%· Dec 17%

Jared Gordon 69%

KO 18%· Sub 4%· Dec 47%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Jared Gordon wins	69%	1.34	missed
Method Jared Gordon wins by Decision	47%	2.10	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	64%	1.64	missed

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Jim Miller wins in R3+ or by Decision value	21%	5.75	✗ lost
Jim Miller wins by Sub or Decision	25%	4.60	✓ won
Jim Miller wins by DEC	17%	6.75	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	64%	1.64	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	66%	1.57	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	64%	1.63	✗ lost
Jim Miller wins	31%	3.28	✓ won
Jared Gordon wins by KO or Decision	65%	1.52	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 3	69%	1.43	✗ lost
Jared Gordon wins by DEC	47%	2.10	✗ lost
Jared Gordon wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	16%	6.25	✗ lost
Jared Gordon wins by KO/TKO in R1	10%	9.50	✗ lost
Jared Gordon wins	69%	1.34	✗ lost
Jared Gordon wins by KO/TKO	18%	5.00	✗ lost
Jim Miller wins by KO or Decision	22%	4.10	✗ lost
Jared Gordon wins in R3+ or by Decision	48%	1.87	✗ lost
Jared Gordon wins by Sub or Decision	51%	1.75	✗ lost
Jim Miller wins by Submission in R1 or R2	7%	12.50	✓ won
Jim Miller wins by SUB	8%	10.50	✓ won
Jim Miller wins by Submission in R2 or R3	4%	23.00	✗ lost
Jim Miller wins by Submission in R2	3%	34.00	✗ lost
Finish before Round 3	31%	2.71	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO	24%	3.35	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	36%	2.17	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	13%	6.00	✗ lost
Jared Gordon wins by KO or Sub	23%	3.40	✗ lost
Jim Miller wins by Submission in R1	4%	17.00	✓ won
Under 2.5 rounds	34%	2.25	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	11%	6.75	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	7%	10.00	✗ lost
Jared Gordon wins by finish in Round 1	12%	6.00	✗ lost
Jared Gordon wins by KO/TKO in R2	6%	13.00	✗ lost
Jim Miller wins by KO or Sub	14%	5.25	✓ won
Jared Gordon wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	8%	8.75	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	12%	5.30	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission in R1	7%	9.25	✓ won
Jim Miller wins by Submission in R3	1%	51.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	4%	15.00	✗ lost
Jim Miller wins by finish in Round 1	8%	7.50	✓ won
Jared Gordon wins by finish in Round 1	12%	4.25	✗ lost
Jared Gordon wins by KO/TKO in R3	3%	19.00	✗ lost
Jim Miller wins by KO/TKO in R2	2%	29.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	5%	9.25	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	4%	14.00	✗ lost
Jim Miller wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	5%	10.00	✗ lost
Jim Miller wins by KO/TKO	6%	8.50	✗ lost
Jim Miller wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	3%	18.00	✗ lost
Jim Miller wins by finish in Round 1	8%	6.00	✓ won
Jim Miller wins by KO/TKO in R1	3%	13.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	2%	21.00	✗ lost
Jared Gordon wins by Submission in R1 or R2	4%	10.50	✗ lost
Jared Gordon wins by SUB	4%	8.75	✗ lost
Jared Gordon wins by Submission in R1	2%	16.00	✗ lost
Jared Gordon wins by Submission in R2	1%	23.00	✗ lost
Jim Miller wins by KO/TKO in R3	1%	34.00	✗ lost
Jared Gordon wins by Submission in R3	1%	34.00	✗ lost

Roman Kopylov

15-5-0

Winner

Roman Kopylov

Decision (U) · R3

✗ wrong

Marco Tulio

14-3-0

▼

Model Prediction

Roman Kopylov ✓ won 46%

KO 23%· Sub 7%· Dec 16%

Marco Tulio 54%

KO 15%· Sub 4%· Dec 35%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Marco Tulio wins	54%	1.55	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	51%	—	✓ predicted

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Roman Kopylov wins	46%	2.30	✓ won
Marco Tulio wins	54%	1.55	✗ lost

Pat Sabatini

22-5-0

Winner

Pat Sabatini

Decision (U) · R3

✗ wrong

William Gomis

15-4-0

▼

Model Prediction

Pat Sabatini ✓ won 46%

KO 5%· Sub 17%· Dec 23%

William Gomis 54%

KO 18%· Sub 4%· Dec 32%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner William Gomis wins value	54%	3.35	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	55%	—	✓ predicted

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
William Gomis wins value	54%	3.35	✗ lost
Pat Sabatini wins	46%	1.28	✓ won

Djorden Santos

11-3-0

Winner

Baisangur Susurkaev

SUB · R3

✓ predicted

Baisangur Susurkaev

12-0-0

▼

Model Prediction

Djorden Santos 24%

KO 7%· Sub 4%· Dec 13%

Baisangur Susurkaev ✓ won 76%

KO 18%· Sub 20%· Dec 38%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Baisangur Susurkaev wins	76%	1.12	✓ predicted
Method Baisangur Susurkaev wins by Decision value	38%	3.10	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	51%	2.65	missed

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Djorden Santos wins by DEC value	13%	15.00	✗ lost
Djorden Santos wins in R3+ or by Decision value	15%	11.00	✗ lost
Djorden Santos wins by Sub or Decision value	17%	10.00	✗ lost
Djorden Santos wins value	24%	6.40	✗ lost
Djorden Santos wins by KO or Decision value	20%	7.25	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	51%	2.65	✗ lost
Baisangur Susurkaev wins by Submission in R3	6%	23.00	✓ won
Fight goes to Decision value	51%	2.55	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	7%	19.00	✓ won
Over 2.5 rounds value	58%	2.20	—
Fight ends by Submission	24%	5.30	✓ won
Baisangur Susurkaev wins by Sub or Decision value	58%	2.15	✓ won
Fight reaches Round 3 value	65%	1.89	✓ won
Baisangur Susurkaev wins by SUB	20%	6.25	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission in R1	12%	10.00	✗ lost
Baisangur Susurkaev wins by Submission in R1	10%	12.00	✗ lost
Baisangur Susurkaev wins by DEC value	38%	3.10	✗ lost
Baisangur Susurkaev wins by Decision value	38%	3.00	✗ lost
Baisangur Susurkaev wins by Submission in R1 or R2	14%	7.75	✗ lost
Djorden Santos wins by Submission in R3	1%	91.00	✗ lost
Baisangur Susurkaev wins by Submission in R2 or R3	10%	10.50	✓ won
Djorden Santos wins by Submission in R1	2%	46.00	✗ lost
Djorden Santos wins by SUB	4%	23.00	✗ lost
Djorden Santos wins by KO or Sub	11%	8.50	✗ lost
Djorden Santos wins by Submission in R1 or R2	3%	31.00	✗ lost
Baisangur Susurkaev wins	76%	1.12	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	14%	6.00	✓ won
Djorden Santos wins by KO/TKO in R3	2%	41.00	✗ lost
Djorden Santos wins by KO/TKO in R1	3%	23.00	✗ lost
Djorden Santos wins by KO/TKO	7%	11.50	✗ lost
Finish before Round 2	25%	3.11	✗ lost
Baisangur Susurkaev wins by KO or Decision	57%	1.31	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 1	25%	3.00	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	49%	1.44	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission in R2	5%	14.00	✗ lost
Djorden Santos wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	5%	14.00	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	42%	1.61	—
Baisangur Susurkaev wins by Submission in R2	4%	16.00	✗ lost
Baisangur Susurkaev wins by KO or Sub	38%	1.68	✓ won
Djorden Santos wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	3%	19.00	✗ lost
Djorden Santos wins by Submission in R2	1%	71.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	7%	7.75	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	13%	3.90	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	25%	1.90	✗ lost
Baisangur Susurkaev wins by KO/TKO in R3	5%	8.75	✗ lost
Djorden Santos wins by KO/TKO in R2	1%	31.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	10%	4.25	✗ lost
Baisangur Susurkaev wins by KO/TKO in R1	9%	4.50	✗ lost
Baisangur Susurkaev wins by KO/TKO	18%	2.20	✗ lost
Baisangur Susurkaev wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	13%	2.75	✗ lost
Baisangur Susurkaev wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	9%	3.90	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	5%	5.50	✗ lost
Baisangur Susurkaev wins by KO/TKO in R2	4%	6.25	✗ lost

Clayton Carpenter

8-3-0

Winner

Jose Ochoa

Decision (U) · R3

✓ predicted

Jose Ochoa

9-2-0

▼

Model Prediction

Clayton Carpenter 46%

KO 11%· Sub 15%· Dec 20%

Jose Ochoa ✓ won 54%

KO 10%· Sub 6%· Dec 38%