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⟁ Past Events — Predictions vs. Actual Results
34 / 43
Correct Picks
79.1% accuracy · 4 events
−$99
Parlay P&L ▾
$33 / parlay (2·3·4-leg) · 0-3 · 3 parlays
−$116
Running P&L · opening ▾
$1000 / event · Balanced · Kelly-weighted
· closing: +$380
UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje
2026-06-15 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly ·
−$116
| Pick | Fight | Odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Hokit wins by KO or Decision | Derrick Lewis vs Josh Hokit | 1.78 | $331 | ✓ won +$258 |
| Ilia Topuria wins by DEC | Justin Gaethje vs Ilia Topuria | 13.00 | $259 | ✗ lost −$259 |
| Steve Garcia wins | Steve Garcia vs Diego Lopes | 2.48 | $237 | ✗ lost −$237 |
| Bo Nickal wins by KO or Decision | Kyle Daukaus vs Bo Nickal | 1.71 | $172 | ✓ won +$122 |
UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje
2026-06-15 · $33/parlay ·
−$99
2-leg parlay @ 23.14 · $33 stake
✗ LOST
−$33
3-leg parlay @ 39.57 · $33 stake
✗ LOST
−$33
4-leg parlay @ 86.66 · $33 stake
✗ LOST
−$33
UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje 5/7 · 71%
2026-06-15
▼
Model Prediction
Justin Gaethje
✓ won
12%
KO 10%·
Sub 1%·
Dec 2%
Ilia Topuria
88%
KO 47%·
Sub 17%·
Dec 24%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Ilia Topuria wins value | 88% | 1.21 | missed |
| Method Ilia Topuria wins by KO/TKO | 47% | 1.49 | missed |
| Finish round Finish in Round 2 | 32% | — | missed |
| Every SportsBet market | Model prob | Odds | Bet result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ilia Topuria significant strikes over 39.5 value | 64% | 26.00 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 69.5 value | 59% | 26.00 | — |
| Justin Gaethje significant strikes over 39.5 value | 53% | 26.00 | — |
| Ilia Topuria significant strikes over 49.5 value | 58% | 21.00 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 34.5 value | 75% | 14.00 | — |
| Justin Gaethje significant strikes over 24.5 value | 66% | 15.00 | — |
| Ilia Topuria significant strikes over 29.5 value | 70% | 14.00 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 49.5 value | 68% | 14.00 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 59.5 value | 64% | 15.00 | — |
| Ilia Topuria significant strikes over 19.5 value | 76% | 12.00 | — |
| Justin Gaethje significant strikes over 29.5 value | 62% | 14.00 | — |
| Justin Gaethje significant strikes over 14.5 value | 76% | 10.00 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 29.5 value | 80% | 9.50 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 44.5 value | 70% | 10.00 | — |
| Ilia Topuria significant strikes over 24.5 value | 73% | 9.00 | — |
| Justin Gaethje significant strikes over 19.5 value | 71% | 9.00 | — |
| Ilia Topuria significant strikes over 14.5 value | 83% | 7.00 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 39.5 value | 73% | 7.50 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 24.5 value | 84% | 6.50 | — |
| Ilia Topuria significant strikes over 9.5 value | 90% | 5.50 | — |
| Justin Gaethje significant strikes over 9.5 value | 86% | 5.50 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 19.5 value | 88% | 4.50 | — |
| Ilia Topuria wins by DEC value | 24% | 15.00 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 14.5 value | 93% | 3.10 | — |
| Justin Gaethje significant strikes over 4.5 value | 95% | 2.50 | — |
| Ilia Topuria wins by Sub or Decision value | 41% | 5.40 | ✗ lost |
| Ends in Round 3+ / Decision | 58% | 3.70 | ✓ won |
| Ilia Topuria wins in R4+ or by Decision value | 37% | 5.70 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 9.5 value | 97% | 2.10 | — |
| Ilia Topuria significant strikes over 4.5 value | 97% | 1.91 | — |
| Fight goes to Decision value | 26% | 7.25 | ✗ lost |
| Ilia Topuria wins by Submission in R2, R3 or R4 value | 13% | 13.00 | ✗ lost |
| Ilia Topuria wins by Submission in R2 | 7% | 23.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight goes to decision | 26% | 6.50 | ✗ lost |
| Total takedowns over 2.5 value | 22% | 7.25 | — |
| Fight ends by Submission in R2 | 8% | 21.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight reaches Round 5 value | 31% | 5.20 | ✗ lost |
| Ilia Topuria significant strikes over 44.5 value | 61% | 2.50 | — |
| Ilia Topuria wins by Submission in R4 | 2% | 61.00 | ✗ lost |
| Ilia Topuria wins by Submission in R4 or R5 | 4% | 41.00 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 4.5 value | 100% | 1.45 | — |
| Total takedowns over 1.5 value | 39% | 3.70 | — |
| Ilia Topuria takedowns over 0.5 value | 59% | 2.40 | — |
| Total takedowns over 3.5 value | 14% | 10.00 | — |
| Justin Gaethje significant strikes over 49.5 value | 46% | 3.00 | — |
| Ilia Topuria takedowns over 1.5 value | 34% | 4.00 | — |
| Ilia Topuria wins by finish in Round 2 value | 28% | 4.80 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by Submission in R4 | 3% | 51.00 | ✗ lost |
| Justin Gaethje significant strikes over 44.5 value | 49% | 2.63 | — |
| Ilia Topuria significant strikes over 34.5 value | 67% | 1.91 | — |
| Ilia Topuria wins by SUB | 17% | 7.50 | ✗ lost |
| Ilia Topuria takedowns over 2.5 value | 18% | 7.00 | — |
| Ilia Topuria significant strikes over 59.5 value | 52% | 2.37 | — |
| Ilia Topuria significant strikes over 69.5 value | 43% | 2.80 | — |
| Justin Gaethje significant strikes over 34.5 value | 57% | 2.10 | — |
| Ilia Topuria wins by Submission in R3 | 4% | 31.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by Submission in R3 | 4% | 29.00 | ✗ lost |
| Ilia Topuria wins by Submission in R5 | 1% | 101.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by Submission | 18% | 6.50 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2 | 25% | 4.70 | ✗ lost |
| Ilia Topuria wins by KO/TKO in R2 | 20% | 5.60 | ✗ lost |
| Total takedowns over 0.5 value | 64% | 1.74 | — |
| Justin Gaethje significant strikes over 109.5 | 17% | 6.50 | — |
| Justin Gaethje significant strikes over 69.5 value | 34% | 3.25 | — |
| Justin Gaethje significant strikes over 59.5 | 40% | 2.70 | — |
| Ilia Topuria significant strikes over 79.5 | 33% | 3.30 | — |
| Justin Gaethje significant strikes over 89.5 | 24% | 4.50 | — |
| Ilia Topuria wins value | 88% | 1.21 | ✗ lost |
| Justin Gaethje significant strikes over 79.5 | 28% | 3.75 | — |
| Ilia Topuria wins by KO/TKO in R2, R3 or R4 | 38% | 2.80 | ✗ lost |
| Justin Gaethje significant strikes over 119.5 | 14% | 7.50 | — |
| Justin Gaethje significant strikes over 99.5 | 20% | 5.00 | — |
| Under 2.5 rounds | 50% | 2.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by Submission in R5 | 1% | 81.00 | ✗ lost |
| Ilia Topuria wins by KO or Decision | 71% | 1.38 | ✗ lost |
| Justin Gaethje significant strikes over 129.5 | 11% | 9.00 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 99.5 | 46% | 2.10 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 79.5 | 54% | 1.79 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 129.5 | 36% | 2.70 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 89.5 | 50% | 1.94 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 119.5 | 39% | 2.45 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 109.5 | 43% | 2.25 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 139.5 | 33% | 2.95 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 149.5 | 29% | 3.20 | — |
| Ilia Topuria wins by KO/TKO in R4 or R5 | 10% | 9.25 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by finish in Round 3 | 17% | 5.40 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 159.5 | 26% | 3.50 | — |
| Total takedowns over 4.5 | 6% | 15.00 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 169.5 | 23% | 3.80 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 179.5 | 21% | 4.20 | — |
| Ilia Topuria significant strikes over 89.5 | 23% | 3.75 | — |
| Justin Gaethje wins by KO/TKO in R2 | 4% | 21.00 | ✗ lost |
| Ilia Topuria wins by KO/TKO in R4 | 7% | 13.00 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 189.5 | 19% | 4.60 | — |
| Over 2.5 rounds | 50% | 1.72 | ✓ won |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R4 | 8% | 10.50 | ✓ won |
| Justin Gaethje significant strikes over 139.5 | 8% | 11.00 | — |
| Justin Gaethje wins by finish in Round 2 | 5% | 18.00 | ✗ lost |
| Justin Gaethje wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3 | 6% | 13.00 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 199.5 | 16% | 5.00 | — |
| Ilia Topuria wins by KO or Sub | 64% | 1.27 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends before decision | 74% | 1.08 | ✓ won |
| Ilia Topuria takedowns over 3.5 | 7% | 12.00 | — |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3 | 13% | 6.25 | ✗ lost |
| Finish before Round 5 | 69% | 1.14 | ✓ won |
| Ilia Topuria significant strikes over 99.5 | 17% | 4.50 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 209.5 | 14% | 5.50 | — |
| Ilia Topuria wins by KO/TKO in R3 | 11% | 7.25 | ✗ lost |
| Ilia Topuria wins by KO/TKO in R5 | 3% | 23.00 | ✗ lost |
| Ends in Round 3+ / Decision | 58% | 1.25 | ✓ won |
| Total significant strikes over 219.5 | 12% | 6.00 | — |
| Ilia Topuria wins by KO/TKO | 47% | 1.49 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO | 57% | 1.22 | ✓ won |
| Total significant strikes over 229.5 | 10% | 6.75 | — |
| Ilia Topuria significant strikes over 109.5 | 12% | 5.50 | — |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R5 | 4% | 16.00 | ✗ lost |
| Justin Gaethje wins by KO/TKO in R3 or R4 | 4% | 17.00 | ✓ won |
| Justin Gaethje takedowns over 0.5 | 19% | 3.10 | — |
| Justin Gaethje wins by KO or Sub | 11% | 5.50 | ✓ won |
| Justin Gaethje wins by KO/TKO | 10% | 6.00 | ✓ won |
| Justin Gaethje wins by KO/TKO in R3 | 2% | 26.00 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 239.5 | 7% | 7.50 | — |
| Justin Gaethje wins | 12% | 4.45 | ✓ won |
| Justin Gaethje wins by KO or Decision | 11% | 4.60 | ✓ won |
| Justin Gaethje wins by Submission in R2, R3 or R4 | 1% | 61.00 | ✗ lost |
| Justin Gaethje wins by finish in Round 4 | 2% | 31.00 | ✓ won |
| Justin Gaethje wins by KO/TKO in R4 | 1% | 34.00 | ✓ won |
| Justin Gaethje wins by KO/TKO in R4 or R5 | 2% | 21.00 | ✓ won |
| Total significant strikes over 249.5 | 5% | 8.25 | — |
| Ilia Topuria significant strikes over 119.5 | 6% | 7.00 | — |
| Justin Gaethje wins by SUB | 1% | 34.00 | ✗ lost |
| Ilia Topuria wins by Submission in R1 | 2% | 15.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by Submission in R1 | 2% | 13.00 | ✗ lost |
| Justin Gaethje wins by KO/TKO in R5 | 1% | 46.00 | ✗ lost |
| Justin Gaethje wins by finish in Round 5 | 1% | 41.00 | ✗ lost |
| Justin Gaethje wins by Sub or Decision | 3% | 11.00 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 259.5 | 3% | 9.25 | — |
| Fight ends by finish in Round 1 | 10% | 2.45 | ✗ lost |
| Justin Gaethje wins by DEC | 2% | 14.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1 | 7% | 2.85 | ✗ lost |
| Ilia Topuria wins by KO/TKO in R1 | 6% | 3.35 | ✗ lost |
| Justin Gaethje wins by KO/TKO in R1 | 1% | 15.00 | ✗ lost |
| Justin Gaethje takedowns over 1.5 | 4% | 5.00 | — |
| Total knockdowns over 0.5 | 2% | 1.25 | — |
▼
Model Prediction
Ciryl Gane
✓ won
63%
KO 27%·
Sub 8%·
Dec 27%
Alex Pereira
37%
KO 24%·
Sub 1%·
Dec 12%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Ciryl Gane wins value | 63% | 1.96 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Ciryl Gane wins by Decision | 27% | 3.80 | missed |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 39% | 2.65 | missed |
| Every SportsBet market | Model prob | Odds | Bet result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total significant strikes over 69.5 value | 66% | 23.00 | — |
| Alex Pereira significant strikes over 39.5 value | 60% | 23.00 | — |
| Ciryl Gane significant strikes over 49.5 value | 52% | 26.00 | — |
| Alex Pereira significant strikes over 29.5 value | 69% | 18.00 | — |
| Ciryl Gane significant strikes over 39.5 value | 62% | 17.00 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 59.5 value | 71% | 13.00 | — |
| Alex Pereira significant strikes over 34.5 value | 64% | 13.00 | — |
| Ciryl Gane significant strikes over 44.5 value | 57% | 14.00 | — |
| Alex Pereira significant strikes over 19.5 value | 79% | 9.00 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 49.5 value | 75% | 7.50 | — |
| Ciryl Gane significant strikes over 29.5 value | 71% | 7.50 | — |
| Ciryl Gane significant strikes over 34.5 value | 66% | 7.50 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 44.5 value | 78% | 5.50 | — |
| Alex Pereira significant strikes over 14.5 value | 85% | 4.50 | — |
| Alex Pereira significant strikes over 24.5 value | 74% | 5.00 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 39.5 value | 80% | 4.50 | — |
| Ciryl Gane significant strikes over 19.5 value | 80% | 3.75 | — |
| Ciryl Gane significant strikes over 24.5 value | 75% | 3.60 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 34.5 value | 83% | 3.20 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 29.5 value | 86% | 3.10 | — |
| Alex Pereira significant strikes over 9.5 value | 90% | 2.70 | — |
| Ciryl Gane significant strikes over 9.5 value | 89% | 2.40 | — |
| Alex Pereira significant strikes over 49.5 value | 50% | 3.75 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 24.5 value | 88% | 2.00 | — |
| Alex Pereira significant strikes over 44.5 value | 55% | 3.10 | — |
| Ciryl Gane significant strikes over 14.5 value | 85% | 1.91 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 19.5 value | 91% | 1.67 | — |
| Ciryl Gane wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2 value | 18% | 8.00 | ✓ won |
| Ciryl Gane wins by KO/TKO in R2 | 8% | 17.00 | ✓ won |
| Ciryl Gane wins by finish in Round 2 value | 11% | 13.00 | ✓ won |
| Alex Pereira takedowns over 0.5 value | 23% | 6.00 | — |
| Alex Pereira significant strikes over 4.5 value | 96% | 1.40 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 14.5 value | 93% | 1.40 | — |
| Ciryl Gane wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3 | 13% | 10.00 | ✓ won |
| Ciryl Gane wins by KO/TKO value | 27% | 4.60 | ✓ won |
| Ciryl Gane wins by KO/TKO in R1 | 10% | 13.00 | ✗ lost |
| Ciryl Gane wins by finish in Round 1 | 13% | 10.00 | ✗ lost |
| Ciryl Gane wins by KO or Sub value | 36% | 3.50 | ✓ won |
| Ciryl Gane wins value | 63% | 1.96 | ✓ won |
| Ciryl Gane wins by KO or Decision value | 55% | 2.18 | ✓ won |
| Ends in Round 3+ / Decision | 60% | 1.94 | ✗ lost |
| Ciryl Gane wins by Submission in R2 | 3% | 46.00 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 9.5 value | 96% | 1.20 | — |
| Ciryl Gane wins by Submission in R1 or R2 | 5% | 21.00 | ✗ lost |
| Ciryl Gane wins by Sub or Decision | 36% | 3.10 | ✗ lost |
| Over 2.5 rounds | 55% | 2.00 | ✗ lost |
| Ends in Round 3+ / Decision | 60% | 1.80 | ✗ lost |
| Ciryl Gane significant strikes over 4.5 value | 94% | 1.14 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 4.5 value | 99% | 1.07 | — |
| Alex Pereira significant strikes over 79.5 | 31% | 3.40 | — |
| Finish before Round 3 | 40% | 2.61 | ✓ won |
| Ciryl Gane wins by DEC | 27% | 3.80 | ✗ lost |
| Fight goes to decision | 39% | 2.65 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2 | 16% | 6.50 | ✓ won |
| Alex Pereira takedowns over 1.5 | 9% | 11.00 | — |
| Alex Pereira significant strikes over 69.5 | 37% | 2.70 | — |
| Fight goes to Decision | 39% | 2.55 | ✗ lost |
| Ciryl Gane wins in R4+ or by Decision | 34% | 2.95 | ✗ lost |
| Ciryl Gane wins by Submission in R2 or R3 | 4% | 26.00 | ✗ lost |
| Ciryl Gane wins by SUB | 8% | 12.00 | ✗ lost |
| Ciryl Gane wins by Submission in R1 | 3% | 34.00 | ✗ lost |
| Alex Pereira significant strikes over 89.5 | 23% | 4.33 | — |
| Alex Pereira significant strikes over 59.5 | 44% | 2.20 | — |
| Fight ends by Submission in R2 | 3% | 34.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight reaches Round 2 | 79% | 1.20 | ✓ won |
| Ciryl Gane wins by KO/TKO in R3 or R4 | 8% | 11.50 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 159.5 | 33% | 2.75 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 169.5 | 30% | 3.00 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 179.5 | 27% | 3.35 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 149.5 | 36% | 2.45 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 139.5 | 39% | 2.25 | — |
| Fight ends before decision | 61% | 1.45 | ✓ won |
| Total significant strikes over 129.5 | 42% | 2.07 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 79.5 | 62% | 1.42 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 89.5 | 57% | 1.52 | — |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1 | 18% | 4.80 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 189.5 | 23% | 3.75 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 99.5 | 53% | 1.64 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 119.5 | 46% | 1.89 | — |
| Alex Pereira wins by DEC | 12% | 7.25 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 109.5 | 49% | 1.76 | — |
| Fight ends by Submission | 9% | 9.25 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO | 51% | 1.66 | ✓ won |
| Ciryl Gane wins by finish in Round 3 | 6% | 15.00 | ✗ lost |
| Ciryl Gane wins by KO/TKO in R4 | 4% | 23.00 | ✗ lost |
| Ciryl Gane wins by KO/TKO in R3 | 4% | 19.00 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 199.5 | 19% | 4.25 | — |
| Ciryl Gane significant strikes over 59.5 | 45% | 1.83 | — |
| Alex Pereira wins by Sub or Decision | 13% | 6.25 | ✗ lost |
| Under 2.5 rounds | 45% | 1.72 | ✓ won |
| Total significant strikes over 209.5 | 16% | 4.90 | — |
| Ciryl Gane significant strikes over 69.5 | 37% | 2.00 | — |
| Fight ends by Submission in R1 | 3% | 23.00 | ✗ lost |
| Ciryl Gane wins by Submission in R3 or R4 | 2% | 31.00 | ✗ lost |
| Ciryl Gane wins by Submission in R4 | 1% | 67.00 | ✗ lost |
| Ciryl Gane significant strikes over 79.5 | 30% | 2.40 | — |
| Alex Pereira wins in R4+ or by Decision | 16% | 4.30 | ✗ lost |
| Alex Pereira wins | 37% | 1.88 | ✗ lost |
| Alex Pereira wins by KO or Decision | 36% | 1.93 | ✗ lost |
| Ciryl Gane significant strikes over 99.5 | 20% | 3.40 | — |
| Ciryl Gane significant strikes over 89.5 | 24% | 2.80 | — |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R4 | 7% | 9.75 | ✗ lost |
| Alex Pereira wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2 | 16% | 4.20 | ✗ lost |
| Alex Pereira wins by KO/TKO in R2 | 7% | 9.00 | ✗ lost |
| Ciryl Gane wins by Submission in R3 | 1% | 51.00 | ✗ lost |
| Ciryl Gane significant strikes over 109.5 | 16% | 4.00 | — |
| Ciryl Gane takedowns over 0.5 | 42% | 1.57 | — |
| Ciryl Gane wins by KO/TKO in R4 or R5 | 5% | 13.00 | ✗ lost |
| Total takedowns over 0.5 | 45% | 1.45 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 219.5 | 12% | 5.40 | — |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3 | 8% | 7.50 | ✗ lost |
| Alex Pereira wins by KO/TKO in R2, R3 or R4 | 14% | 4.20 | ✗ lost |
| Ciryl Gane wins by finish in Round 1 | 13% | 4.80 | ✗ lost |
| Alex Pereira wins by KO/TKO | 24% | 2.45 | ✗ lost |
| Alex Pereira wins by KO or Sub | 25% | 2.30 | ✗ lost |
| Alex Pereira wins by KO/TKO in R1 | 8% | 6.75 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by Submission in R4 | 1% | 46.00 | ✗ lost |
| Ciryl Gane significant strikes over 119.5 | 13% | 4.50 | — |
| Alex Pereira wins by finish in Round 1 | 9% | 6.25 | ✗ lost |
| Ciryl Gane wins by Submission in R4 or R5 | 1% | 34.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by Submission in R3 | 1% | 34.00 | ✗ lost |
| Ciryl Gane significant strikes over 129.5 | 9% | 5.50 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 229.5 | 8% | 6.00 | — |
| Total takedowns over 1.5 | 25% | 1.87 | — |
| Alex Pereira wins by KO/TKO in R4 | 3% | 14.00 | ✗ lost |
| Alex Pereira wins by KO/TKO in R3, R4 or R5 | 8% | 5.50 | ✗ lost |
| Total takedowns over 2.5 | 19% | 2.25 | — |
| Alex Pereira wins by KO/TKO in R3 | 4% | 10.50 | ✗ lost |
| Total takedowns over 3.5 | 12% | 2.80 | — |
| Ciryl Gane takedowns over 1.5 | 17% | 2.00 | — |
| Ciryl Gane significant strikes over 139.5 | 5% | 6.50 | — |
| Alex Pereira wins by Submission in R1 or R2 | 1% | 46.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R5 | 2% | 12.50 | ✗ lost |
| Ciryl Gane wins by KO/TKO in R5 | 1% | 23.00 | ✗ lost |
| Alex Pereira wins by Submission in R2, R3 or R4 | 1% | 46.00 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 239.5 | 4% | 6.75 | — |
| Alex Pereira wins by SUB | 1% | 26.00 | ✗ lost |
| Alex Pereira wins by finish in Round 1 | 9% | 3.00 | ✗ lost |
| Alex Pereira wins by KO/TKO in R5 | 1% | 21.00 | ✗ lost |
| Total takedowns over 4.5 | 6% | 3.80 | — |
| Ciryl Gane significant strikes over 149.5 | 1% | 8.00 | — |
| Total knockdowns over 0.5 | 2% | 1.38 | — |
▼
Model Prediction
Aiemann Zahabi
22%
KO 5%·
Sub 4%·
Dec 13%
Sean O'Malley
✓ won
78%
KO 29%·
Sub 4%·
Dec 44%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Sean O'Malley wins | 78% | 1.22 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Sean O'Malley wins by Decision | 44% | 2.15 | missed |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 57% | 2.20 | missed |
| Every SportsBet market | Model prob | Odds | Bet result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sean O'Malley takedowns over 0.5 value | 23% | 5.50 | — |
| Sean O'Malley wins by Submission in R2 | 2% | 71.00 | ✗ lost |
| Aiemann Zahabi takedowns over 0.5 value | 43% | 2.63 | — |
| Sean O'Malley wins by Submission in R1 or R2 | 4% | 29.00 | ✗ lost |
| Sean O'Malley takedowns over 1.5 | 10% | 11.00 | — |
| Fight ends by Submission | 8% | 13.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by Submission in R2 | 3% | 34.00 | ✗ lost |
| Sean O'Malley wins by SUB | 4% | 23.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by finish in Round 2 | 16% | 6.25 | ✓ won |
| Aiemann Zahabi significant strikes over 59.5 | 50% | 2.00 | — |
| Finish before Round 3 | 36% | 2.75 | ✓ won |
| Sean O'Malley wins by Sub or Decision | 49% | 2.03 | ✗ lost |
| Sean O'Malley wins by Submission in R2 or R3 | 2% | 41.00 | ✗ lost |
| Sean O'Malley wins by Decision | 44% | 2.20 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by Submission in R1 | 4% | 26.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight reaches Round 2 | 80% | 1.20 | ✓ won |
| Sean O'Malley wins by Submission in R1 | 2% | 46.00 | ✗ lost |
| Aiemann Zahabi significant strikes over 49.5 | 57% | 1.67 | — |
| Sean O'Malley wins | 78% | 1.22 | ✓ won |
| Sean O'Malley wins by DEC | 44% | 2.15 | ✗ lost |
| Over 2.5 rounds | 61% | 1.57 | ✗ lost |
| Aiemann Zahabi wins | 22% | 4.35 | ✗ lost |
| Aiemann Zahabi wins by Submission in R2 | 1% | 71.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends before decision | 43% | 2.20 | ✓ won |
| Aiemann Zahabi wins by KO or Sub | 9% | 10.50 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2 | 13% | 7.00 | ✓ won |
| Fight goes to decision | 57% | 1.62 | ✗ lost |
| Sean O'Malley wins by KO or Decision | 74% | 1.25 | ✓ won |
| Fight goes to Decision | 57% | 1.61 | ✗ lost |
| Aiemann Zahabi wins by Submission in R1 or R2 | 3% | 31.00 | ✗ lost |
| Aiemann Zahabi takedowns over 1.5 | 16% | 5.50 | — |
| Aiemann Zahabi significant strikes over 39.5 | 64% | 1.40 | — |
| Sean O'Malley wins by KO/TKO in R2 | 11% | 8.00 | ✓ won |
| Aiemann Zahabi significant strikes over 19.5 | 80% | 1.12 | — |
| Under 2.5 rounds | 39% | 2.25 | ✓ won |
| Sean O'Malley significant strikes over 19.5 | 82% | 1.07 | — |
| Sean O'Malley wins by KO or Sub | 34% | 2.60 | ✓ won |
| Aiemann Zahabi wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2 | 5% | 19.00 | ✗ lost |
| Aiemann Zahabi significant strikes over 29.5 | 71% | 1.22 | — |
| Aiemann Zahabi wins by KO or Decision | 18% | 4.70 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 49.5 | 77% | 1.12 | — |
| Sean O'Malley wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2 | 25% | 3.45 | ✓ won |
| Fight ends by finish in Round 1 | 20% | 4.30 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 129.5 | 48% | 1.79 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 119.5 | 52% | 1.63 | — |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO | 35% | 2.45 | ✓ won |
| Aiemann Zahabi wins by KO/TKO in R2 | 2% | 41.00 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 59.5 | 73% | 1.16 | — |
| Sean O'Malley significant strikes over 29.5 | 74% | 1.14 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 109.5 | 56% | 1.50 | — |
| Aiemann Zahabi wins by Sub or Decision | 16% | 5.10 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 69.5 | 69% | 1.20 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 79.5 | 66% | 1.26 | — |
| Aiemann Zahabi wins by Submission in R1 | 2% | 51.00 | ✗ lost |
| Sean O'Malley wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3 | 16% | 5.30 | ✓ won |
| Total significant strikes over 99.5 | 59% | 1.40 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 89.5 | 63% | 1.32 | — |
| Aiemann Zahabi significant strikes over 69.5 | 32% | 2.60 | — |
| Sean O'Malley wins by KO/TKO | 29% | 2.80 | ✓ won |
| Sean O'Malley significant strikes over 39.5 | 67% | 1.22 | — |
| Aiemann Zahabi wins by KO/TKO | 5% | 15.00 | ✗ lost |
| Sean O'Malley significant strikes over 49.5 | 60% | 1.36 | — |
| Aiemann Zahabi wins by SUB | 4% | 23.00 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 139.5 | 41% | 1.98 | — |
| Sean O'Malley significant strikes over 59.5 | 52% | 1.53 | — |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1 | 16% | 4.90 | ✗ lost |
| Aiemann Zahabi wins by KO/TKO in R1 | 3% | 31.00 | ✗ lost |
| Aiemann Zahabi wins by DEC | 13% | 6.00 | ✗ lost |
| Aiemann Zahabi wins in R3+ or by Decision | 14% | 5.50 | ✗ lost |
| Sean O'Malley significant strikes over 69.5 | 44% | 1.72 | — |
| Aiemann Zahabi wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3 | 3% | 26.00 | ✗ lost |
| Sean O'Malley significant strikes over 79.5 | 36% | 2.10 | — |
| Sean O'Malley wins by KO/TKO in R1 | 14% | 5.40 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 149.5 | 34% | 2.20 | — |
| Sean O'Malley wins by Submission in R3 | 1% | 101.00 | ✗ lost |
| Sean O'Malley significant strikes over 89.5 | 27% | 2.50 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 159.5 | 26% | 2.50 | — |
| Fight ends by Submission in R3 | 1% | 51.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by finish in Round 3 | 6% | 9.50 | ✗ lost |
| Sean O'Malley significant strikes over 99.5 | 19% | 3.10 | — |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3 | 5% | 10.50 | ✗ lost |
| Sean O'Malley wins by KO/TKO in R3 | 4% | 12.00 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 169.5 | 19% | 2.85 | — |
| Sean O'Malley significant strikes over 109.5 | 12% | 4.00 | — |
| Aiemann Zahabi wins by KO/TKO in R3 | 1% | 51.00 | ✗ lost |
| Aiemann Zahabi significant strikes over 79.5 | 12% | 3.30 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 179.5 | 11% | 3.35 | — |
| Sean O'Malley significant strikes over 119.5 | 5% | 5.00 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 189.5 | 3% | 3.90 | — |
| Total knockdowns over 0.5 | 2% | 1.83 | — |
▼
Model Prediction
Derrick Lewis
17%
KO 8%·
Sub 1%·
Dec 8%
Josh Hokit
✓ won
83%
KO 55%·
Sub 13%·
Dec 15%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Josh Hokit wins | 83% | 1.23 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Josh Hokit wins by KO/TKO | 55% | 1.77 | ✓ predicted |
| Finish round Finish in Round 1 | 43% | — | missed |
| Every SportsBet market | Model prob | Odds | Bet result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Lewis wins by DEC | 8% | 21.00 | ✗ lost |
| Derrick Lewis significant strikes over 49.5 value | 26% | 5.50 | — |
| Fight goes to Decision value | 23% | 6.25 | ✗ lost |
| Derrick Lewis significant strikes over 39.5 value | 38% | 3.75 | — |
| Josh Hokit wins by DEC | 15% | 9.25 | ✗ lost |
| Josh Hokit wins in R3+ or by Decision value | 28% | 4.90 | ✗ lost |
| Derrick Lewis significant strikes over 59.5 value | 16% | 8.50 | — |
| Fight goes to decision | 23% | 6.00 | ✗ lost |
| Derrick Lewis significant strikes over 29.5 value | 49% | 2.75 | — |
| Fight reaches Round 3 value | 34% | 3.70 | ✗ lost |
| Derrick Lewis wins by Sub or Decision | 9% | 14.00 | ✗ lost |
| Derrick Lewis takedowns over 0.5 value | 23% | 5.00 | — |
| Derrick Lewis significant strikes over 19.5 value | 61% | 1.83 | — |
| Under 2.5 rounds | 71% | 1.53 | ✓ won |
| Josh Hokit wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3 | 24% | 4.40 | ✓ won |
| Josh Hokit wins by KO or Decision | 70% | 1.52 | ✓ won |
| Josh Hokit significant strikes over 39.5 | 47% | 2.25 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 89.5 | 32% | 3.25 | — |
| Josh Hokit wins by Sub or Decision | 28% | 3.70 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 99.5 | 27% | 3.80 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 79.5 | 37% | 2.75 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 109.5 | 23% | 4.50 | — |
| Josh Hokit wins | 83% | 1.23 | ✓ won |
| Total significant strikes over 69.5 | 42% | 2.40 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 119.5 | 19% | 5.40 | — |
| Josh Hokit significant strikes over 29.5 | 58% | 1.72 | — |
| Josh Hokit wins by KO/TKO in R2 | 16% | 6.25 | ✓ won |
| Derrick Lewis wins by Decision | 8% | 13.00 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 59.5 | 47% | 2.08 | — |
| Josh Hokit wins by finish in Round 2 | 20% | 5.00 | ✓ won |
| Josh Hokit wins by KO/TKO | 55% | 1.77 | ✓ won |
| Total significant strikes over 49.5 | 53% | 1.79 | — |
| Josh Hokit wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2 | 46% | 2.03 | ✓ won |
| Josh Hokit significant strikes over 19.5 | 68% | 1.36 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 129.5 | 15% | 6.25 | — |
| Josh Hokit wins by KO or Sub | 67% | 1.36 | ✓ won |
| Josh Hokit wins by KO/TKO in R3 | 8% | 11.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2 | 18% | 4.90 | ✓ won |
| Fight ends before decision | 77% | 1.11 | ✓ won |
| Josh Hokit wins by KO/TKO in R1 | 30% | 2.80 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by finish in Round 3 | 12% | 7.25 | ✗ lost |
| Josh Hokit wins by finish in Round 1 | 38% | 2.25 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO | 63% | 1.33 | ✓ won |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3 | 10% | 8.75 | ✗ lost |
| Finish before Round 3 | 66% | 1.25 | ✓ won |
| Total significant strikes over 139.5 | 11% | 7.50 | — |
| Total takedowns over 0.5 | 59% | 1.32 | — |
| Josh Hokit takedowns over 0.5 | 54% | 1.40 | — |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1 | 35% | 2.12 | ✗ lost |
| Derrick Lewis wins | 17% | 4.25 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by Submission | 14% | 5.00 | ✗ lost |
| Josh Hokit wins by SUB | 13% | 5.50 | ✗ lost |
| Josh Hokit significant strikes over 49.5 | 24% | 2.88 | — |
| Derrick Lewis wins by KO or Decision | 16% | 4.30 | ✗ lost |
| Josh Hokit wins by Submission in R1 or R2 | 11% | 6.25 | ✗ lost |
| Over 2.5 rounds | 29% | 2.37 | ✗ lost |
| Josh Hokit wins by Submission in R2 | 4% | 18.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by Submission in R2 | 4% | 16.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by Submission in R3 | 2% | 29.00 | ✗ lost |
| Josh Hokit wins by Submission in R3 | 2% | 31.00 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 149.5 | 7% | 8.75 | — |
| Fight ends by Submission in R1 | 8% | 7.50 | ✗ lost |
| Josh Hokit wins by Submission in R1 | 7% | 8.25 | ✗ lost |
| Josh Hokit wins by finish in Round 1 | 38% | 1.57 | ✗ lost |
| Total takedowns over 1.5 | 34% | 1.73 | — |
| Derrick Lewis wins by Submission in R2 or R3 | 1% | 91.00 | ✗ lost |
| Josh Hokit significant strikes over 59.5 | 15% | 3.75 | — |
| Derrick Lewis wins by Submission in R1 or R2 | 1% | 41.00 | ✗ lost |
| Derrick Lewis wins by SUB | 1% | 34.00 | ✗ lost |
| Derrick Lewis wins by Submission in R1 | 1% | 61.00 | ✗ lost |
| Total takedowns over 2.5 | 21% | 2.20 | — |
| Derrick Lewis wins by KO or Sub | 10% | 4.60 | ✗ lost |
| Derrick Lewis wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3 | 4% | 11.50 | ✗ lost |
| Derrick Lewis wins by KO/TKO | 8% | 5.00 | ✗ lost |
| Total takedowns over 3.5 | 14% | 2.95 | — |
| Derrick Lewis wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2 | 7% | 5.70 | ✗ lost |
| Derrick Lewis wins by KO/TKO in R3 | 1% | 31.00 | ✗ lost |
| Derrick Lewis wins by KO/TKO in R2 | 2% | 16.00 | ✗ lost |
| Josh Hokit takedowns over 1.5 | 21% | 1.83 | — |
| Derrick Lewis wins by KO/TKO in R1 | 5% | 7.75 | ✗ lost |
| Total takedowns over 4.5 | 7% | 4.70 | — |
| Derrick Lewis takedowns over 1.5 | 3% | 11.00 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 159.5 | 3% | 10.50 | — |
| Josh Hokit significant strikes over 69.5 | 6% | 4.50 | — |
| Derrick Lewis wins by finish in Round 1 | 6% | 5.25 | ✗ lost |
| Josh Hokit takedowns over 2.5 | 10% | 2.40 | — |
| Total knockdowns over 0.5 | 2% | 1.22 | — |
▼
Model Prediction
Michael Chandler
15%
KO 5%·
Sub 2%·
Dec 8%
Mauricio Ruffy
✓ won
85%
KO 64%·
Sub 3%·
Dec 19%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Mauricio Ruffy wins | 85% | 1.18 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Mauricio Ruffy wins by KO/TKO | 64% | 1.48 | ✓ predicted |
| Finish round Finish in Round 1 | 43% | — | ✓ predicted |
| Every SportsBet market | Model prob | Odds | Bet result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mauricio Ruffy takedowns over 0.5 value | 23% | 6.00 | — |
| Under 2.5 rounds value | 69% | 1.83 | ✓ won |
| Fight goes to decision | 27% | 4.60 | ✗ lost |
| Mauricio Ruffy takedowns over 1.5 | 11% | 11.00 | — |
| Mauricio Ruffy wins by DEC | 19% | 6.50 | ✗ lost |
| Fight goes to Decision | 27% | 4.40 | ✗ lost |
| Mauricio Ruffy wins by Sub or Decision | 22% | 5.25 | ✗ lost |
| Michael Chandler significant strikes over 69.5 | 13% | 8.50 | — |
| Mauricio Ruffy wins by Decision | 19% | 6.00 | ✗ lost |
| Michael Chandler significant strikes over 59.5 | 19% | 6.00 | — |
| Mauricio Ruffy wins by finish in Round 1 | 39% | 2.75 | ✓ won |
| Michael Chandler significant strikes over 49.5 | 24% | 4.33 | — |
| Mauricio Ruffy wins by KO/TKO in R1 | 37% | 2.80 | ✓ won |
| Michael Chandler significant strikes over 39.5 | 35% | 3.00 | — |
| Mauricio Ruffy wins by KO or Decision | 83% | 1.23 | ✓ won |
| Mauricio Ruffy wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2 | 57% | 1.78 | ✓ won |
| Mauricio Ruffy wins | 85% | 1.18 | ✓ won |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1 | 40% | 2.50 | ✓ won |
| Michael Chandler wins by DEC | 8% | 12.00 | ✗ lost |
| Finish before Round 2 | 43% | 2.33 | ✓ won |
| Michael Chandler significant strikes over 29.5 | 46% | 2.10 | — |
| Michael Chandler significant strikes over 19.5 | 60% | 1.57 | — |
| Fight reaches Round 3 | 35% | 2.69 | ✗ lost |
| Mauricio Ruffy wins by KO/TKO | 64% | 1.48 | ✓ won |
| Mauricio Ruffy significant strikes over 29.5 | 58% | 1.62 | — |
| Mauricio Ruffy wins by KO or Sub | 67% | 1.39 | ✓ won |
| Mauricio Ruffy significant strikes over 19.5 | 70% | 1.30 | — |
| Michael Chandler takedowns over 0.5 | 61% | 1.45 | — |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO | 68% | 1.29 | ✓ won |
| Mauricio Ruffy wins by KO/TKO in R2 | 20% | 4.40 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 49.5 | 54% | 1.58 | — |
| Fight ends before decision | 73% | 1.17 | ✓ won |
| Total significant strikes over 89.5 | 31% | 2.70 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 99.5 | 26% | 3.20 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 69.5 | 41% | 2.03 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 79.5 | 36% | 2.30 | — |
| Mauricio Ruffy significant strikes over 39.5 | 42% | 2.00 | — |
| Michael Chandler wins by Decision | 8% | 10.00 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 59.5 | 46% | 1.79 | — |
| Total takedowns over 0.5 | 59% | 1.39 | — |
| Mauricio Ruffy wins by finish in Round 2 | 20% | 4.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2 | 21% | 3.90 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 109.5 | 21% | 3.75 | — |
| Michael Chandler wins by Sub or Decision | 10% | 7.75 | ✗ lost |
| Mauricio Ruffy wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3 | 26% | 2.90 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 119.5 | 17% | 4.50 | — |
| Michael Chandler wins by KO or Decision | 13% | 5.60 | ✗ lost |
| Michael Chandler wins | 15% | 4.90 | ✗ lost |
| Mauricio Ruffy wins by finish in Round 1 | 39% | 1.68 | ✓ won |
| Total takedowns over 1.5 | 36% | 1.79 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 129.5 | 12% | 5.40 | — |
| Mauricio Ruffy significant strikes over 49.5 | 23% | 2.63 | — |
| Mauricio Ruffy significant strikes over 59.5 | 18% | 3.40 | — |
| Over 2.5 rounds | 31% | 1.83 | ✗ lost |
| Mauricio Ruffy significant strikes over 69.5 | 12% | 4.50 | — |
| Mauricio Ruffy wins by Submission in R1 or R2 | 3% | 21.00 | ✗ lost |
| Mauricio Ruffy wins by Submission in R1 | 2% | 31.00 | ✗ lost |
| Mauricio Ruffy wins by SUB | 3% | 18.00 | ✗ lost |
| Mauricio Ruffy wins by KO/TKO in R3 | 7% | 7.50 | ✗ lost |
| Total takedowns over 2.5 | 22% | 2.20 | — |
| Fight ends by Submission in R1 | 3% | 18.00 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 139.5 | 7% | 6.50 | — |
| Michael Chandler takedowns over 1.5 | 24% | 1.91 | — |
| Michael Chandler wins by KO/TKO in R1 | 3% | 17.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3 | 7% | 6.25 | ✗ lost |
| Michael Chandler wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2 | 4% | 11.00 | ✗ lost |
| Mauricio Ruffy wins by Submission in R2 | 1% | 51.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by Submission | 4% | 9.75 | ✗ lost |
| Mauricio Ruffy wins by Submission in R2 or R3 | 1% | 34.00 | ✗ lost |
| Total takedowns over 3.5 | 14% | 2.80 | — |
| Michael Chandler wins by KO/TKO | 5% | 8.75 | ✗ lost |
| Mauricio Ruffy significant strikes over 79.5 | 6% | 6.00 | — |
| Michael Chandler wins by KO or Sub | 6% | 6.25 | ✗ lost |
| Michael Chandler wins by finish in Round 1 | 4% | 10.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by Submission in R2 | 1% | 26.00 | ✗ lost |
| Michael Chandler wins by Submission in R1 | 1% | 34.00 | ✗ lost |
| Michael Chandler wins by KO/TKO in R2 | 1% | 23.00 | ✗ lost |
| Michael Chandler wins by Submission in R1 or R2 | 1% | 21.00 | ✗ lost |
| Michael Chandler wins by finish in Round 1 | 4% | 8.00 | ✗ lost |
| Michael Chandler wins by SUB | 2% | 17.00 | ✗ lost |
| Michael Chandler takedowns over 2.5 | 11% | 2.37 | — |
| Total takedowns over 4.5 | 7% | 3.90 | — |
| Michael Chandler wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3 | 2% | 14.00 | ✗ lost |
| Michael Chandler wins by finish in Round 2 | 2% | 12.00 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 149.5 | 2% | 8.00 | — |
| Mauricio Ruffy significant strikes over 89.5 | 1% | 8.00 | — |
| Total knockdowns over 0.5 | 2% | 1.19 | — |
▼
Model Prediction
Kyle Daukaus
20%
KO 3%·
Sub 9%·
Dec 9%
Bo Nickal
✓ won
80%
KO 39%·
Sub 9%·
Dec 32%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Bo Nickal wins | 80% | 1.30 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Bo Nickal wins by KO/TKO value | 39% | 3.10 | ✓ predicted |
| Finish round Finish in Round 1 | 28% | — | ✓ predicted |
| Every SportsBet market | Model prob | Odds | Bet result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Daukaus takedowns over 0.5 value | 33% | 6.00 | — |
| Kyle Daukaus takedowns over 1.5 value | 16% | 12.00 | — |
| Bo Nickal wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2 value | 32% | 3.90 | ✓ won |
| Bo Nickal wins by KO/TKO value | 39% | 3.10 | ✓ won |
| Bo Nickal wins by KO/TKO in R2 | 14% | 9.00 | ✗ lost |
| Bo Nickal wins by KO or Decision value | 71% | 1.71 | ✓ won |
| Bo Nickal wins by KO/TKO in R1 | 19% | 6.25 | ✓ won |
| Bo Nickal wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3 | 21% | 5.60 | ✗ lost |
| Bo Nickal wins by DEC value | 32% | 3.50 | ✗ lost |
| Fight goes to decision | 40% | 2.72 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2 | 14% | 7.50 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO | 42% | 2.55 | ✓ won |
| Fight goes to Decision | 40% | 2.65 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1 | 20% | 5.20 | ✓ won |
| Bo Nickal wins in R3+ or by Decision | 41% | 2.55 | ✗ lost |
| Bo Nickal wins | 80% | 1.30 | ✓ won |
| Over 2.5 rounds | 46% | 2.25 | ✗ lost |
| Bo Nickal significant strikes over 19.5 | 73% | 1.36 | — |
| Fight reaches Round 3 | 51% | 1.93 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 49.5 | 60% | 1.61 | — |
| Bo Nickal wins by KO or Sub | 48% | 1.97 | ✓ won |
| Total significant strikes over 59.5 | 52% | 1.83 | — |
| Bo Nickal wins by finish in Round 2 | 17% | 5.50 | ✗ lost |
| Bo Nickal significant strikes over 29.5 | 52% | 1.72 | — |
| Finish before Round 3 | 49% | 1.81 | ✓ won |
| Total significant strikes over 69.5 | 42% | 2.10 | — |
| Kyle Daukaus wins by DEC | 9% | 10.00 | ✗ lost |
| Bo Nickal wins by finish in Round 1 | 23% | 3.75 | ✓ won |
| Bo Nickal wins by Sub or Decision | 40% | 2.12 | ✗ lost |
| Under 2.5 rounds | 54% | 1.57 | ✓ won |
| Fight ends before decision | 60% | 1.42 | ✓ won |
| Bo Nickal significant strikes over 39.5 | 38% | 2.25 | — |
| Bo Nickal wins by KO/TKO in R3 | 7% | 12.00 | ✗ lost |
| Kyle Daukaus wins by Decision | 9% | 9.50 | ✗ lost |
| Total takedowns over 0.5 | 70% | 1.15 | — |
| Kyle Daukaus significant strikes over 19.5 | 49% | 1.57 | — |
| Kyle Daukaus wins by Sub or Decision | 18% | 4.30 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 79.5 | 31% | 2.40 | — |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3 | 8% | 10.00 | ✗ lost |
| Kyle Daukaus significant strikes over 29.5 | 35% | 2.10 | — |
| Bo Nickal significant strikes over 59.5 | 19% | 3.75 | — |
| Kyle Daukaus wins | 20% | 3.52 | ✗ lost |
| Bo Nickal significant strikes over 49.5 | 24% | 2.88 | — |
| Total takedowns over 1.5 | 48% | 1.42 | — |
| Kyle Daukaus wins by KO or Decision | 11% | 6.00 | ✗ lost |
| Bo Nickal significant strikes over 69.5 | 14% | 5.00 | — |
| Kyle Daukaus significant strikes over 39.5 | 23% | 2.88 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 89.5 | 23% | 2.85 | — |
| Bo Nickal takedowns over 0.5 | 55% | 1.20 | — |
| Kyle Daukaus significant strikes over 49.5 | 15% | 4.00 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 99.5 | 18% | 3.35 | — |
| Kyle Daukaus wins by Submission in R1 or R2 | 7% | 8.00 | ✗ lost |
| Kyle Daukaus wins by Submission in R2 | 3% | 19.00 | ✗ lost |
| Kyle Daukaus wins by SUB | 9% | 6.50 | ✗ lost |
| Bo Nickal wins by finish in Round 1 | 23% | 2.50 | ✓ won |
| Kyle Daukaus wins by KO or Sub | 12% | 4.70 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 109.5 | 13% | 4.00 | — |
| Fight ends by Submission in R2 | 6% | 8.75 | ✗ lost |
| Bo Nickal significant strikes over 79.5 | 8% | 6.50 | — |
| Fight ends by Submission | 18% | 2.95 | ✗ lost |
| Kyle Daukaus wins by Submission in R1 | 4% | 12.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by Submission in R1 | 8% | 5.80 | ✗ lost |
| Total takedowns over 2.5 | 27% | 1.70 | — |
| Bo Nickal wins by Submission in R1 or R2 | 7% | 6.00 | ✗ lost |
| Kyle Daukaus significant strikes over 59.5 | 8% | 5.50 | — |
| Bo Nickal wins by SUB | 9% | 4.90 | ✗ lost |
| Kyle Daukaus wins by finish in Round 1 | 6% | 7.50 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 119.5 | 9% | 4.80 | — |
| Kyle Daukaus wins by Submission in R3 | 2% | 26.00 | ✗ lost |
| Kyle Daukaus wins by finish in Round 2 | 4% | 10.00 | ✗ lost |
| Bo Nickal wins by Submission in R2 | 3% | 13.00 | ✗ lost |
| Total takedowns over 3.5 | 18% | 2.10 | — |
| Bo Nickal wins by Submission in R2 or R3 | 5% | 8.50 | ✗ lost |
| Bo Nickal wins by Submission in R1 | 4% | 9.25 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by Submission in R3 | 3% | 11.50 | ✗ lost |
| Bo Nickal takedowns over 1.5 | 24% | 1.50 | — |
| Kyle Daukaus wins by KO/TKO | 3% | 12.00 | ✗ lost |
| Kyle Daukaus wins by finish in Round 1 | 6% | 5.75 | ✗ lost |
| Kyle Daukaus wins by KO/TKO in R2 | 1% | 34.00 | ✗ lost |
| Kyle Daukaus wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2 | 2% | 14.00 | ✗ lost |
| Total takedowns over 4.5 | 11% | 2.75 | — |
| Kyle Daukaus wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3 | 1% | 21.00 | ✗ lost |
| Bo Nickal wins by Submission in R3 | 2% | 18.00 | ✗ lost |
| Kyle Daukaus wins by KO/TKO in R1 | 1% | 21.00 | ✗ lost |
| Bo Nickal takedowns over 2.5 | 15% | 1.72 | — |
| Bo Nickal significant strikes over 89.5 | 3% | 9.00 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 129.5 | 4% | 5.75 | — |
| Total takedowns over 5.5 | 4% | 3.45 | — |
| Bo Nickal takedowns over 3.5 | 6% | 2.20 | — |
| Total knockdowns over 0.5 | 2% | 1.73 | — |
▼
Model Prediction
Steve Garcia
57%
KO 27%·
Sub 3%·
Dec 27%
Diego Lopes
✓ won
43%
KO 13%·
Sub 10%·
Dec 20%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Steve Garcia wins value | 57% | 2.29 | missed |
| Method Steve Garcia wins by Decision value | 27% | 5.50 | missed |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 47% | 2.83 | missed |
| Every SportsBet market | Model prob | Odds | Bet result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Garcia significant strikes over 89.5 value | 24% | 8.00 | — |
| Steve Garcia significant strikes over 79.5 value | 34% | 5.50 | — |
| Steve Garcia significant strikes over 69.5 value | 43% | 4.20 | — |
| Steve Garcia significant strikes over 59.5 value | 51% | 3.10 | — |
| Steve Garcia wins by DEC value | 27% | 5.50 | ✗ lost |
| Steve Garcia wins by Sub or Decision value | 30% | 5.00 | ✗ lost |
| Steve Garcia wins in R3+ or by Decision value | 32% | 4.25 | ✗ lost |
| Steve Garcia significant strikes over 49.5 value | 58% | 2.37 | — |
| Fight goes to decision | 47% | 2.83 | ✗ lost |
| Steve Garcia wins value | 57% | 2.29 | ✗ lost |
| Fight goes to Decision value | 47% | 2.75 | ✗ lost |
| Steve Garcia wins by KO or Decision value | 54% | 2.30 | ✗ lost |
| Steve Garcia significant strikes over 39.5 value | 65% | 1.83 | — |
| Steve Garcia wins by KO/TKO in R2 | 11% | 10.50 | ✗ lost |
| Steve Garcia wins by finish in Round 2 | 12% | 9.50 | ✗ lost |
| Fight reaches Round 3 value | 57% | 2.00 | ✗ lost |
| Steve Garcia takedowns over 0.5 value | 32% | 3.50 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 99.5 value | 49% | 2.30 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 89.5 value | 54% | 2.02 | — |
| Steve Garcia significant strikes over 29.5 value | 71% | 1.53 | — |
| Steve Garcia wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2 | 23% | 4.75 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 109.5 value | 42% | 2.60 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 79.5 value | 59% | 1.82 | — |
| Steve Garcia wins by Submission in R2 | 1% | 101.00 | ✗ lost |
| Steve Garcia wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3 | 15% | 7.00 | ✗ lost |
| Diego Lopes wins by DEC | 20% | 5.30 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 69.5 value | 64% | 1.64 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 119.5 | 34% | 3.05 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 59.5 | 70% | 1.50 | — |
| Steve Garcia wins by KO or Sub | 30% | 3.50 | ✗ lost |
| Under 2.5 rounds | 47% | 2.20 | ✓ won |
| Steve Garcia wins by KO/TKO | 27% | 3.80 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 49.5 | 75% | 1.37 | — |
| Steve Garcia significant strikes over 19.5 | 80% | 1.28 | — |
| Diego Lopes significant strikes over 29.5 | 66% | 1.53 | — |
| Diego Lopes significant strikes over 39.5 | 55% | 1.83 | — |
| Diego Lopes wins by Decision | 20% | 5.00 | ✗ lost |
| Diego Lopes significant strikes over 19.5 | 77% | 1.28 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 129.5 | 27% | 3.60 | — |
| Diego Lopes significant strikes over 49.5 | 42% | 2.30 | — |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2 | 16% | 5.75 | ✓ won |
| Total significant strikes over 139.5 | 22% | 4.30 | — |
| Steve Garcia wins by Submission in R1 or R2 | 2% | 41.00 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 149.5 | 17% | 5.10 | — |
| Steve Garcia wins by SUB | 3% | 34.00 | ✗ lost |
| Over 2.5 rounds | 53% | 1.61 | ✗ lost |
| Steve Garcia wins by KO/TKO in R1 | 12% | 7.25 | ✗ lost |
| Diego Lopes significant strikes over 59.5 | 27% | 3.10 | — |
| Steve Garcia takedowns over 1.5 | 12% | 7.00 | — |
| Diego Lopes takedowns over 0.5 | 55% | 1.50 | — |
| Diego Lopes wins by Sub or Decision | 30% | 2.75 | ✗ lost |
| Total takedowns over 0.5 | 62% | 1.32 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 159.5 | 13% | 6.25 | — |
| Finish before Round 3 | 44% | 1.75 | ✓ won |
| Steve Garcia wins by finish in Round 1 | 13% | 6.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO | 40% | 1.91 | ✓ won |
| Steve Garcia wins by Submission in R1 | 1% | 67.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends before decision | 53% | 1.40 | ✓ won |
| Diego Lopes wins by KO or Decision | 33% | 2.20 | ✓ won |
| Diego Lopes wins | 43% | 1.63 | ✓ won |
| Total takedowns over 1.5 | 40% | 1.72 | — |
| Fight ends by Submission in R2 | 5% | 13.00 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 169.5 | 9% | 7.75 | — |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1 | 17% | 3.75 | ✗ lost |
| Steve Garcia wins by KO/TKO in R3 | 4% | 15.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by Submission | 13% | 4.75 | ✗ lost |
| Diego Lopes wins by Submission in R2 | 4% | 14.00 | ✗ lost |
| Steve Garcia wins by finish in Round 1 | 13% | 4.40 | ✗ lost |
| Diego Lopes wins by Submission in R1 or R2 | 9% | 6.25 | ✗ lost |
| Diego Lopes wins by KO/TKO in R2 | 5% | 10.00 | ✓ won |
| Diego Lopes wins by Submission in R2 or R3 | 6% | 9.25 | ✗ lost |
| Diego Lopes wins by SUB | 10% | 5.20 | ✗ lost |
| Diego Lopes takedowns over 1.5 | 27% | 1.91 | — |
| Total takedowns over 2.5 | 23% | 2.20 | — |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3 | 6% | 8.25 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by finish in Round 3 | 8% | 6.25 | ✗ lost |
| Diego Lopes wins by KO or Sub | 23% | 2.20 | ✓ won |
| Fight ends by Submission in R1 | 5% | 8.75 | ✗ lost |
| Diego Lopes wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2 | 11% | 4.40 | ✓ won |
| Diego Lopes wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3 | 7% | 6.50 | ✓ won |
| Diego Lopes wins by KO/TKO | 13% | 3.50 | ✓ won |
| Diego Lopes wins by Submission in R1 | 4% | 9.75 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 179.5 | 4% | 9.75 | — |
| Total takedowns over 3.5 | 14% | 2.85 | — |
| Fight ends by Submission in R3 | 2% | 19.00 | ✗ lost |
| Diego Lopes wins by KO/TKO in R1 | 6% | 6.75 | ✗ lost |
| Diego Lopes wins by Submission in R3 | 2% | 21.00 | ✗ lost |
| Diego Lopes significant strikes over 69.5 | 7% | 4.33 | — |
| Diego Lopes wins by KO/TKO in R3 | 2% | 14.00 | ✗ lost |
| Diego Lopes wins by finish in Round 1 | 10% | 2.70 | ✗ lost |
| Total takedowns over 4.5 | 6% | 4.10 | — |
| Diego Lopes takedowns over 2.5 | 5% | 2.50 | — |
| Total knockdowns over 0.5 | 2% | 1.36 | — |