The matrix is quiet — no upcoming predictions yet.
The matrix has identified no value yet — Sportsbet odds may not be published.
Track record
Every pick, graded
What the model said before each fight, what happened, and the locked bets it would have placed. Losses stay on the page.
221 / 330
Correct Picks
67.0% accuracy · 32 events
12 / 22
Parlay Legs ▾
12 parlays
· −$576
+$852
Running P&L · locked picks ▾
$1000 / event · Conservative · Kelly-weighted
· closing: +$609
77 of 111
confident picks landed — when the model gives a fighter 70%+ it has been right 69% of the time
20–30
betting record with the same amount on every recommended bet (-2.3 units — early days, small sample)
Bankroll curve
$1000 per event · Conservative tier · locked picks
+$852
2026-06-15
peak $990 · trough $-1008
2026-10-31
From 17 Oct 2026 each card's picks are locked 24 hours before its first bout, as the site showed them then. Earlier cards were locked when their first prop market opened, days to weeks before the card.
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan
2026-10-31 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-10-30 21:02 UTC (24h before) ·
+$268
| Pick | Fight | Odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luana Santos wins | Yana Santos vs Luana Santos | 1.35 | $80 | ✓ won +$28 |
| Theodor Berggren wins by Sub or Decision | Theodor Berggren vs Rodrigo Sezinando | 4.90 | $66 | ✗ lost −$66 |
| Jacobe Smith wins by KO or Decision | Randy Brown vs Jacobe Smith | 1.86 | $63 | ✓ won +$54 |
| Zach Reese wins by DEC | Mickey Gall vs Zach Reese | 8.50 | $34 | ✓ won +$252 |
UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev
2026-10-24 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-10-23 14:02 UTC (24h before) ·
+$303
| Pick | Fight | Odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Santos wins by KO or Decision | Daniel Santos vs Bolaji Oki | 2.45 | $80 | ✓ won +$116 |
| Jacob Malkoun wins | Abubakar Vagaev vs Jacob Malkoun | 2.32 | $80 | ✗ lost −$80 |
| Ramazan Temirov wins by KO or Decision | Ramazan Temirov vs Lone'er Kavanagh | 1.99 | $70 | ✗ lost −$70 |
| Colby Thicknesse wins by Sub or Decision | Colby Thicknesse vs Asaf Chopurov | 6.25 | $64 | ✓ won +$337 |
UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott
2026-10-17 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-10-16 21:24 UTC (24h before) ·
−$80
| Pick | Fight | Odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Landwehr wins by KO or Decision | Nate Landwehr vs Mandel Nallo | 4.70 | $80 | ✗ lost −$80 |
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan
2026-10-10 · $1000 Conservative · even split · locked 2026-09-19 15:16 UTC ·
+$1220
| Pick | Fight | Odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brendan Allen wins | Brendan Allen vs Christian Leroy Duncan | 2.22 | $1000 | ✓ won +$1220 |
UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2
2026-09-19 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-09-09 12:20 UTC ·
+$11
| Pick | Fight | Odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dooho Choi wins | Patricio Pitbull vs Dooho Choi | 1.39 | $72 | ✗ lost −$72 |
| Edmen Shahbazyan wins | Edmen Shahbazyan vs Brunno Ferreira | 1.59 | $63 | ✓ won +$37 |
| Joshua Van wins | Alexandre Pantoja vs Joshua Van | 1.85 | $54 | ✓ won +$46 |
Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado
2026-09-12 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-09-09 12:20 UTC ·
−$95
| Pick | Fight | Odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Delgado wins | Jean Silva vs Jose Delgado | 4.25 | — | ⋯ pending |
| Rafa Garcia wins | Rafa Garcia vs Rongzhu | 2.53 | $74 | ✗ lost −$74 |
| Marwan Rahiki wins | Tommy McMillen vs Marwan Rahiki | 2.37 | $21 | ✗ lost −$21 |
UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse
2026-09-05 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-09-02 09:47 UTC ·
−$52
| Pick | Fight | Odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Pinto wins | Ryan Spann vs Mario Pinto | 1.35 | $80 | ✓ won +$28 |
| Dan Hooker wins | Dan Hooker vs Salahdine Parnasse | 5.75 | $80 | ✗ lost −$80 |
UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song
2026-08-29 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-08-25 11:10 UTC ·
−$4
| Pick | Fight | Odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julia Polastri wins | Xiong Jingnan vs Julia Polastri | 1.45 | — | ⋯ pending |
| Nilson Rojas wins | Bilal Hasan vs Nilson Rojas | 5.50 | $80 | ✗ lost −$80 |
| Denise Gomes wins | Yan Xiaonan vs Denise Gomes | 2.32 | $57 | ✓ won +$76 |
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues
2026-08-22 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-08-19 09:05 UTC ·
−$111
| Pick | Fight | Odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance Chatman wins | Anthony Wint vs Terrance Chatman | 8.00 | $80 | ✗ lost −$80 |
| Ryan Kuse wins | Marcio Barbosa vs Ryan Kuse | 7.00 | $31 | ✗ lost −$31 |
UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry
2026-08-15 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-07-29 12:37 UTC ·
−$80
| Pick | Fight | Odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gillian Robertson wins | Mackenzie Dern vs Gillian Robertson | 2.72 | $80 | ✗ lost −$80 |
UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld
2026-08-08 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-08-04 11:58 UTC ·
−$75
| Pick | Fight | Odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louie Sutherland wins | Henrique Da Silva Lopes vs Louie Sutherland | 1.63 | — | ⋯ pending |
| Guilherme Pat wins | Steven Asplund vs Guilherme Pat | 3.02 | $49 | ✗ lost −$49 |
| Jessie Rosas wins | Miles Johns vs Jessie Rosas | 2.33 | — | ⋯ pending |
| Amanda Lemos wins | Amanda Lemos vs Alexia Thainara | 3.02 | $27 | ✗ lost −$27 |
UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez
2026-08-01 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-07-28 16:52 UTC ·
−$56
| Pick | Fight | Odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateusz Rebecki wins | Kyle Prepolec vs Mateusz Rebecki | 1.18 | $80 | ✓ won +$14 |
| Oban Elliott wins | Oban Elliott vs Michael Oliveira | 3.57 | $80 | ✗ lost −$80 |
| Bogdan Grad wins | Dennis Buzukja vs Bogdan Grad | 1.52 | $62 | ✓ won +$32 |
| Fight goes to Decision | Daniel Rodriguez vs Uros Medic | 7.25 | $22 | ✗ lost −$22 |
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov
2026-07-25 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-07-21 13:32 UTC ·
−$102
| Pick | Fight | Odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nurullo Aliev wins | Mike Davis vs Nurullo Aliev | 1.54 | $80 | ✓ won +$43 |
| Tyrell Fortune wins | Rizvan Kuniev vs Tyrell Fortune | 3.34 | $80 | ✗ lost −$80 |
| Damian Rzepecki wins | Magomed Zaynukov vs Damian Rzepecki | 3.73 | $43 | ✗ lost −$43 |
| Dustin Jacoby wins | Dustin Jacoby vs Muhammad Said | 1.59 | $23 | ✗ lost −$23 |
UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman
2026-07-18 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-07-14 09:24 UTC ·
+$38
| Pick | Fight | Odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Hooper wins | Chase Hooper vs Mitch Ramirez | 1.27 | $80 | ✓ won +$22 |
| Christian Leroy Duncan wins | Jared Cannonier vs Christian Leroy Duncan | 1.32 | $80 | ✓ won +$26 |
| Dricus Du Plessis wins by SUB | Kamaru Usman vs Dricus Du Plessis | 9.25 | $55 | ✗ lost −$55 |
| Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani wins | Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs Seokhyeon Ko | 2.66 | $28 | ✓ won +$46 |
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2
2026-07-11 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly · locked 2026-06-07 13:59 UTC ·
−$200
| Pick | Fight | Odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elisha Ellison wins | Gable Steveson vs Elisha Ellison | 10.00 | $138 | ✗ lost −$138 |
| Benoit Saint Denis wins | Paddy Pimblett vs Benoit Saint Denis | 1.53 | $62 | ✗ lost −$62 |
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres
2026-06-27 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly · locked 2026-06-24 16:05 UTC ·
−$216
| Pick | Fight | Odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manuel Torres wins | Rafael Fiziev vs Manuel Torres | 1.96 | $115 | ✗ lost −$115 |
| Eric Nolan wins by Sub or Decision | Eric Nolan vs Farman Hasanov | 5.30 | $70 | ✗ lost −$70 |
| Matheus Camilo wins | Nazim Sadykhov vs Matheus Camilo | 2.99 | $48 | ✓ won +$95 |
| Ends in Round 3+ / Decision | Julius Walker vs Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev | 3.92 | $44 | ✗ lost −$44 |
| Fight reaches Round 2 | Julius Walker vs Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev | 2.17 | $44 | ✗ lost −$44 |
| Michel Pereira wins | Michel Pereira vs Shara Magomedov | 3.82 | $37 | ✗ lost −$37 |
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi 2
2026-06-20 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly · locked 2026-06-16 17:28 UTC ·
+$109
| Pick | Fight | Odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luana Santos wins | Karol Rosa vs Luana Santos | 1.97 | $157 | ✓ won +$152 |
| Kyoji Horiguchi wins by KO/TKO | Kyoji Horiguchi vs Manel Kape | 11.50 | $43 | ✗ lost −$43 |
UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje
2026-06-15 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly · locked 2026-06-07 13:59 UTC ·
−$26
| Pick | Fight | Odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Hokit wins by KO or Decision | Derrick Lewis vs Josh Hokit | 1.78 | $73 | ✓ won +$57 |
| Ilia Topuria wins by DEC | Justin Gaethje vs Ilia Topuria | 13.00 | $57 | ✗ lost −$57 |
| Steve Garcia wins | Steve Garcia vs Diego Lopes | 2.48 | $52 | ✗ lost −$52 |
| Bo Nickal wins by KO or Decision | Kyle Daukaus vs Bo Nickal | 1.71 | $38 | ✓ won +$27 |
12 / 22
Legs landed
54.5% of picks
3 / 12
Parlays won
every leg has to land
−$576
Profit
$100 on each
Only 12 parlays
settled so far — far too few to judge the profit either way. On 91 past cards,
parlays picked this way landed 65% of the time.
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan
2026-10-31 ·
+$138
2-leg @ 2.38
Fight reaches Round 3 @ 1.28Jacobe Smith wins by KO or Decision @ 1.86
✓ WON
+$138
UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev
2026-10-24 ·
−$100
2-leg @ 4.38
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision @ 2.20Ramazan Temirov wins by KO or Decision @ 1.99
✗ LOST
−$100
UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott
2026-10-17 ·
−$100
2-leg @ 2.80
Melissa Croden wins @ 1.31Ends in Round 3+ / Decision @ 2.14
✗ LOST
−$100
UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2
2026-09-19 ·
−$100
2-leg @ 2.21
Dooho Choi wins @ 1.39Edmen Shahbazyan wins @ 1.59
✗ LOST
−$100
Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado
2026-09-12 ·
−$100
2-leg @ 3.35
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision @ 2.22Edgar Chairez wins @ 1.51
✗ LOST
−$100
UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse
2026-09-05 ·
+$107
2-leg @ 2.07
Mario Pinto wins @ 1.35Felipe Lima wins @ 1.53
✓ WON
+$107
UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song
2026-08-29 ·
−$100
2-leg @ 1.81
Julia Polastri wins @ 1.45Ends in Round 3+ / Decision @ 1.25
✗ LOST
−$100
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues
2026-08-22 ·
−$100
2-leg @ 2.31
Fight reaches Round 2 @ 1.30Gauge Young wins @ 1.78
✗ LOST
−$100
UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez
2026-08-01 ·
+$79
2-leg @ 1.79
Mateusz Rebecki wins @ 1.18Bogdan Grad wins @ 1.52
✓ WON
+$79
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov
2026-07-25 ·
−$100
2-leg @ 2.45
Dustin Jacoby wins @ 1.59Nurullo Aliev wins @ 1.54
✗ LOST
−$100
UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman
2026-07-18 ·
−$100
2-leg @ 2.24
Christian Leroy Duncan wins @ 1.32Alvin Hines wins @ 1.70
✗ LOST
−$100
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2
2026-07-11 ·
−$100
2-leg @ 1.99
Damian Pinas wins @ 1.46Fight reaches Round 2 @ 1.36
✗ LOST
−$100
UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje 5/7 · 71%
2026-06-15
Model Prediction
Justin Gaethje
✓ won
12%
KO 10%·
Sub 1%·
Dec 2%
Ilia Topuria
88%
KO 47%·
Sub 17%·
Dec 24%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Ilia Topuria wins value | 88% | 1.21 | missed |
| Method Ilia Topuria wins by KO/TKO | 47% | 1.49 | missed |
| Finish round Finish in Round 2 | 32% | — | missed |
| Every Sportsbet market | Model prob | Odds | Bet result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ilia Topuria significant strikes over 39.5 | 64% | 26.00 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 69.5 | 59% | 26.00 | — |
| Justin Gaethje significant strikes over 39.5 | 53% | 26.00 | — |
| Ilia Topuria significant strikes over 49.5 | 58% | 21.00 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 34.5 | 75% | 14.00 | — |
| Justin Gaethje significant strikes over 24.5 | 66% | 15.00 | — |
| Ilia Topuria significant strikes over 29.5 | 70% | 14.00 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 49.5 | 68% | 14.00 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 59.5 | 64% | 15.00 | — |
| Ilia Topuria significant strikes over 19.5 | 76% | 12.00 | — |
| Justin Gaethje significant strikes over 29.5 | 62% | 14.00 | — |
| Justin Gaethje significant strikes over 14.5 | 76% | 10.00 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 29.5 | 80% | 9.50 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 44.5 | 70% | 10.00 | — |
| Ilia Topuria significant strikes over 24.5 | 73% | 9.00 | — |
| Justin Gaethje significant strikes over 19.5 | 71% | 9.00 | — |
| Ilia Topuria significant strikes over 14.5 | 83% | 7.00 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 39.5 | 73% | 7.50 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 24.5 | 84% | 6.50 | — |
| Ilia Topuria significant strikes over 9.5 | 90% | 5.50 | — |
| Justin Gaethje significant strikes over 9.5 | 86% | 5.50 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 19.5 | 88% | 4.50 | — |
| Ilia Topuria wins by DEC value | 24% | 15.00 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 14.5 | 93% | 3.10 | — |
| Justin Gaethje significant strikes over 4.5 | 95% | 2.50 | — |
| Ilia Topuria wins by Sub or Decision value | 41% | 5.40 | ✗ lost |
| Ends in Round 3+ / Decision | 58% | 3.70 | ✓ won |
| Ilia Topuria wins in R4+ or by Decision value | 37% | 5.70 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 9.5 | 97% | 2.10 | — |
| Ilia Topuria significant strikes over 4.5 | 97% | 1.91 | — |
| Fight goes to Decision | 26% | 7.25 | ✗ lost |
| Ilia Topuria wins by Submission in R2, R3 or R4 | 13% | 13.00 | ✗ lost |
| Ilia Topuria wins by Submission in R2 | 7% | 23.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight goes to decision | 26% | 6.50 | ✗ lost |
| Total takedowns over 2.5 | 22% | 7.25 | — |
| Fight ends by Submission in R2 | 8% | 21.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight reaches Round 5 | 31% | 5.20 | ✗ lost |
| Ilia Topuria significant strikes over 44.5 | 61% | 2.50 | — |
| Ilia Topuria wins by Submission in R4 | 2% | 61.00 | ✗ lost |
| Ilia Topuria wins by Submission in R4 or R5 | 4% | 41.00 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 4.5 | 100% | 1.45 | — |
| Total takedowns over 1.5 | 39% | 3.70 | — |
| Ilia Topuria takedowns over 0.5 | 59% | 2.40 | — |
| Total takedowns over 3.5 | 14% | 10.00 | — |
| Justin Gaethje significant strikes over 49.5 | 46% | 3.00 | — |
| Ilia Topuria takedowns over 1.5 | 34% | 4.00 | — |
| Ilia Topuria wins by finish in Round 2 | 28% | 4.80 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by Submission in R4 | 3% | 51.00 | ✗ lost |
| Justin Gaethje significant strikes over 44.5 | 49% | 2.63 | — |
| Ilia Topuria significant strikes over 34.5 | 67% | 1.91 | — |
| Ilia Topuria wins by SUB | 17% | 7.50 | ✗ lost |
| Ilia Topuria takedowns over 2.5 | 18% | 7.00 | — |
| Ilia Topuria significant strikes over 59.5 | 52% | 2.37 | — |
| Ilia Topuria significant strikes over 69.5 | 43% | 2.80 | — |
| Justin Gaethje significant strikes over 34.5 | 57% | 2.10 | — |
| Ilia Topuria wins by Submission in R3 | 4% | 31.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by Submission in R3 | 4% | 29.00 | ✗ lost |
| Ilia Topuria wins by Submission in R5 | 1% | 101.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by Submission | 18% | 6.50 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2 | 25% | 4.70 | ✗ lost |
| Ilia Topuria wins by KO/TKO in R2 | 20% | 5.60 | ✗ lost |
| Total takedowns over 0.5 | 64% | 1.74 | — |
| Justin Gaethje significant strikes over 109.5 | 17% | 6.50 | — |
| Justin Gaethje significant strikes over 69.5 | 34% | 3.25 | — |
| Justin Gaethje significant strikes over 59.5 | 40% | 2.70 | — |
| Ilia Topuria significant strikes over 79.5 | 33% | 3.30 | — |
| Justin Gaethje significant strikes over 89.5 | 24% | 4.50 | — |
| Ilia Topuria wins value | 88% | 1.21 | ✗ lost |
| Justin Gaethje significant strikes over 79.5 | 28% | 3.75 | — |
| Ilia Topuria wins by KO/TKO in R2, R3 or R4 | 38% | 2.80 | ✗ lost |
| Justin Gaethje significant strikes over 119.5 | 14% | 7.50 | — |
| Justin Gaethje significant strikes over 99.5 | 20% | 5.00 | — |
| Under 2.5 rounds | 50% | 2.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by Submission in R5 | 1% | 81.00 | ✗ lost |
| Ilia Topuria wins by KO or Decision | 71% | 1.38 | ✗ lost |
| Justin Gaethje significant strikes over 129.5 | 11% | 9.00 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 99.5 | 46% | 2.10 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 79.5 | 54% | 1.79 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 129.5 | 36% | 2.70 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 89.5 | 50% | 1.94 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 119.5 | 39% | 2.45 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 109.5 | 43% | 2.25 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 139.5 | 33% | 2.95 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 149.5 | 29% | 3.20 | — |
| Ilia Topuria wins by KO/TKO in R4 or R5 | 10% | 9.25 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by finish in Round 3 | 17% | 5.40 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 159.5 | 26% | 3.50 | — |
| Total takedowns over 4.5 | 6% | 15.00 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 169.5 | 23% | 3.80 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 179.5 | 21% | 4.20 | — |
| Ilia Topuria significant strikes over 89.5 | 23% | 3.75 | — |
| Justin Gaethje wins by KO/TKO in R2 | 4% | 21.00 | ✗ lost |
| Ilia Topuria wins by KO/TKO in R4 | 7% | 13.00 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 189.5 | 19% | 4.60 | — |
| Over 2.5 rounds | 50% | 1.72 | ✓ won |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R4 | 8% | 10.50 | ✓ won |
| Justin Gaethje significant strikes over 139.5 | 8% | 11.00 | — |
| Justin Gaethje wins by finish in Round 2 | 5% | 18.00 | ✗ lost |
| Justin Gaethje wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3 | 6% | 13.00 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 199.5 | 16% | 5.00 | — |
| Ilia Topuria wins by KO or Sub | 64% | 1.27 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends before decision | 74% | 1.08 | ✓ won |
| Ilia Topuria takedowns over 3.5 | 7% | 12.00 | — |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3 | 13% | 6.25 | ✗ lost |
| Finish before Round 5 | 69% | 1.14 | ✓ won |
| Ilia Topuria significant strikes over 99.5 | 17% | 4.50 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 209.5 | 14% | 5.50 | — |
| Ilia Topuria wins by KO/TKO in R3 | 11% | 7.25 | ✗ lost |
| Ilia Topuria wins by KO/TKO in R5 | 3% | 23.00 | ✗ lost |
| Ends in Round 3+ / Decision | 58% | 1.25 | ✓ won |
| Total significant strikes over 219.5 | 12% | 6.00 | — |
| Ilia Topuria wins by KO/TKO | 47% | 1.49 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO | 57% | 1.22 | ✓ won |
| Total significant strikes over 229.5 | 10% | 6.75 | — |
| Ilia Topuria significant strikes over 109.5 | 12% | 5.50 | — |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R5 | 4% | 16.00 | ✗ lost |
| Justin Gaethje wins by KO/TKO in R3 or R4 | 4% | 17.00 | ✓ won |
| Justin Gaethje takedowns over 0.5 | 19% | 3.10 | — |
| Justin Gaethje wins by KO or Sub | 11% | 5.50 | ✓ won |
| Justin Gaethje wins by KO/TKO | 10% | 6.00 | ✓ won |
| Justin Gaethje wins by KO/TKO in R3 | 2% | 26.00 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 239.5 | 7% | 7.50 | — |
| Justin Gaethje wins | 12% | 4.45 | ✓ won |
| Justin Gaethje wins by KO or Decision | 11% | 4.60 | ✓ won |
| Justin Gaethje wins by Submission in R2, R3 or R4 | 1% | 61.00 | ✗ lost |
| Justin Gaethje wins by finish in Round 4 | 2% | 31.00 | ✓ won |
| Justin Gaethje wins by KO/TKO in R4 | 1% | 34.00 | ✓ won |
| Justin Gaethje wins by KO/TKO in R4 or R5 | 2% | 21.00 | ✓ won |
| Total significant strikes over 249.5 | 5% | 8.25 | — |
| Ilia Topuria significant strikes over 119.5 | 6% | 7.00 | — |
| Justin Gaethje wins by SUB | 1% | 34.00 | ✗ lost |
| Ilia Topuria wins by Submission in R1 | 2% | 15.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by Submission in R1 | 2% | 13.00 | ✗ lost |
| Justin Gaethje wins by KO/TKO in R5 | 1% | 46.00 | ✗ lost |
| Justin Gaethje wins by finish in Round 5 | 1% | 41.00 | ✗ lost |
| Justin Gaethje wins by Sub or Decision | 3% | 11.00 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 259.5 | 3% | 9.25 | — |
| Fight ends by finish in Round 1 | 10% | 2.45 | ✗ lost |
| Justin Gaethje wins by DEC | 2% | 14.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1 | 7% | 2.85 | ✗ lost |
| Ilia Topuria wins by KO/TKO in R1 | 6% | 3.35 | ✗ lost |
| Justin Gaethje wins by KO/TKO in R1 | 1% | 15.00 | ✗ lost |
| Justin Gaethje takedowns over 1.5 | 4% | 5.00 | — |
| Total knockdowns over 0.5 | 2% | 1.25 | — |
Model Prediction
Ciryl Gane
✓ won
63%
KO 27%·
Sub 8%·
Dec 27%
Alex Pereira
37%
KO 24%·
Sub 1%·
Dec 12%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Ciryl Gane wins value | 63% | 1.96 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Ciryl Gane wins by Decision | 27% | 3.80 | missed |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 39% | 2.65 | missed |
| Every Sportsbet market | Model prob | Odds | Bet result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total significant strikes over 69.5 | 66% | 23.00 | — |
| Alex Pereira significant strikes over 39.5 | 60% | 23.00 | — |
| Ciryl Gane significant strikes over 49.5 | 52% | 26.00 | — |
| Alex Pereira significant strikes over 29.5 | 69% | 18.00 | — |
| Ciryl Gane significant strikes over 39.5 | 62% | 17.00 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 59.5 | 71% | 13.00 | — |
| Alex Pereira significant strikes over 34.5 | 64% | 13.00 | — |
| Ciryl Gane significant strikes over 44.5 | 57% | 14.00 | — |
| Alex Pereira significant strikes over 19.5 | 79% | 9.00 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 49.5 | 75% | 7.50 | — |
| Ciryl Gane significant strikes over 29.5 | 71% | 7.50 | — |
| Ciryl Gane significant strikes over 34.5 | 66% | 7.50 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 44.5 | 78% | 5.50 | — |
| Alex Pereira significant strikes over 14.5 | 85% | 4.50 | — |
| Alex Pereira significant strikes over 24.5 | 74% | 5.00 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 39.5 | 80% | 4.50 | — |
| Ciryl Gane significant strikes over 19.5 | 80% | 3.75 | — |
| Ciryl Gane significant strikes over 24.5 | 75% | 3.60 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 34.5 | 83% | 3.20 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 29.5 | 86% | 3.10 | — |
| Alex Pereira significant strikes over 9.5 | 90% | 2.70 | — |
| Ciryl Gane significant strikes over 9.5 | 89% | 2.40 | — |
| Alex Pereira significant strikes over 49.5 | 50% | 3.75 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 24.5 | 88% | 2.00 | — |
| Alex Pereira significant strikes over 44.5 | 55% | 3.10 | — |
| Ciryl Gane significant strikes over 14.5 | 85% | 1.91 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 19.5 | 91% | 1.67 | — |
| Ciryl Gane wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2 | 18% | 8.00 | ✓ won |
| Ciryl Gane wins by KO/TKO in R2 | 8% | 17.00 | ✓ won |
| Ciryl Gane wins by finish in Round 2 | 11% | 13.00 | ✓ won |
| Alex Pereira takedowns over 0.5 | 23% | 6.00 | — |
| Alex Pereira significant strikes over 4.5 | 96% | 1.40 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 14.5 | 93% | 1.40 | — |
| Ciryl Gane wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3 | 13% | 10.00 | ✓ won |
| Ciryl Gane wins by KO/TKO | 27% | 4.60 | ✓ won |
| Ciryl Gane wins by KO/TKO in R1 | 10% | 13.00 | ✗ lost |
| Ciryl Gane wins by finish in Round 1 | 13% | 10.00 | ✗ lost |
| Ciryl Gane wins by KO or Sub | 36% | 3.50 | ✓ won |
| Ciryl Gane wins value | 63% | 1.96 | ✓ won |
| Ciryl Gane wins by KO or Decision value | 55% | 2.18 | ✓ won |
| Ends in Round 3+ / Decision | 60% | 1.94 | ✗ lost |
| Ciryl Gane wins by Submission in R2 | 3% | 46.00 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 9.5 | 96% | 1.20 | — |
| Ciryl Gane wins by Submission in R1 or R2 | 5% | 21.00 | ✗ lost |
| Ciryl Gane wins by Sub or Decision | 36% | 3.10 | ✗ lost |
| Over 2.5 rounds | 55% | 2.00 | ✗ lost |
| Ends in Round 3+ / Decision | 60% | 1.80 | ✗ lost |
| Ciryl Gane significant strikes over 4.5 | 94% | 1.14 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 4.5 | 99% | 1.07 | — |
| Alex Pereira significant strikes over 79.5 | 31% | 3.40 | — |
| Finish before Round 3 | 40% | 2.61 | ✓ won |
| Ciryl Gane wins by DEC | 27% | 3.80 | ✗ lost |
| Fight goes to decision | 39% | 2.65 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2 | 16% | 6.50 | ✓ won |
| Alex Pereira takedowns over 1.5 | 9% | 11.00 | — |
| Alex Pereira significant strikes over 69.5 | 37% | 2.70 | — |
| Fight goes to Decision | 39% | 2.55 | ✗ lost |
| Ciryl Gane wins in R4+ or by Decision | 34% | 2.95 | ✗ lost |
| Ciryl Gane wins by Submission in R2 or R3 | 4% | 26.00 | ✗ lost |
| Ciryl Gane wins by SUB | 8% | 12.00 | ✗ lost |
| Ciryl Gane wins by Submission in R1 | 3% | 34.00 | ✗ lost |
| Alex Pereira significant strikes over 89.5 | 23% | 4.33 | — |
| Alex Pereira significant strikes over 59.5 | 44% | 2.20 | — |
| Fight ends by Submission in R2 | 3% | 34.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight reaches Round 2 | 79% | 1.20 | ✓ won |
| Ciryl Gane wins by KO/TKO in R3 or R4 | 8% | 11.50 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 159.5 | 33% | 2.75 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 169.5 | 30% | 3.00 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 179.5 | 27% | 3.35 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 149.5 | 36% | 2.45 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 139.5 | 39% | 2.25 | — |
| Fight ends before decision | 61% | 1.45 | ✓ won |
| Total significant strikes over 129.5 | 42% | 2.07 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 79.5 | 62% | 1.42 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 89.5 | 57% | 1.52 | — |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1 | 18% | 4.80 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 189.5 | 23% | 3.75 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 99.5 | 53% | 1.64 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 119.5 | 46% | 1.89 | — |
| Alex Pereira wins by DEC | 12% | 7.25 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 109.5 | 49% | 1.76 | — |
| Fight ends by Submission | 9% | 9.25 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO | 51% | 1.66 | ✓ won |
| Ciryl Gane wins by finish in Round 3 | 6% | 15.00 | ✗ lost |
| Ciryl Gane wins by KO/TKO in R4 | 4% | 23.00 | ✗ lost |
| Ciryl Gane wins by KO/TKO in R3 | 4% | 19.00 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 199.5 | 19% | 4.25 | — |
| Ciryl Gane significant strikes over 59.5 | 45% | 1.83 | — |
| Alex Pereira wins by Sub or Decision | 13% | 6.25 | ✗ lost |
| Under 2.5 rounds | 45% | 1.72 | ✓ won |
| Total significant strikes over 209.5 | 16% | 4.90 | — |
| Ciryl Gane significant strikes over 69.5 | 37% | 2.00 | — |
| Fight ends by Submission in R1 | 3% | 23.00 | ✗ lost |
| Ciryl Gane wins by Submission in R3 or R4 | 2% | 31.00 | ✗ lost |
| Ciryl Gane wins by Submission in R4 | 1% | 67.00 | ✗ lost |
| Ciryl Gane significant strikes over 79.5 | 30% | 2.40 | — |
| Alex Pereira wins in R4+ or by Decision | 16% | 4.30 | ✗ lost |
| Alex Pereira wins | 37% | 1.88 | ✗ lost |
| Alex Pereira wins by KO or Decision | 36% | 1.93 | ✗ lost |
| Ciryl Gane significant strikes over 99.5 | 20% | 3.40 | — |
| Ciryl Gane significant strikes over 89.5 | 24% | 2.80 | — |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R4 | 7% | 9.75 | ✗ lost |
| Alex Pereira wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2 | 16% | 4.20 | ✗ lost |
| Alex Pereira wins by KO/TKO in R2 | 7% | 9.00 | ✗ lost |
| Ciryl Gane wins by Submission in R3 | 1% | 51.00 | ✗ lost |
| Ciryl Gane significant strikes over 109.5 | 16% | 4.00 | — |
| Ciryl Gane takedowns over 0.5 | 42% | 1.57 | — |
| Ciryl Gane wins by KO/TKO in R4 or R5 | 5% | 13.00 | ✗ lost |
| Total takedowns over 0.5 | 45% | 1.45 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 219.5 | 12% | 5.40 | — |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3 | 8% | 7.50 | ✗ lost |
| Alex Pereira wins by KO/TKO in R2, R3 or R4 | 14% | 4.20 | ✗ lost |
| Ciryl Gane wins by finish in Round 1 | 13% | 4.80 | ✗ lost |
| Alex Pereira wins by KO/TKO | 24% | 2.45 | ✗ lost |
| Alex Pereira wins by KO or Sub | 25% | 2.30 | ✗ lost |
| Alex Pereira wins by KO/TKO in R1 | 8% | 6.75 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by Submission in R4 | 1% | 46.00 | ✗ lost |
| Ciryl Gane significant strikes over 119.5 | 13% | 4.50 | — |
| Alex Pereira wins by finish in Round 1 | 9% | 6.25 | ✗ lost |
| Ciryl Gane wins by Submission in R4 or R5 | 1% | 34.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by Submission in R3 | 1% | 34.00 | ✗ lost |
| Ciryl Gane significant strikes over 129.5 | 9% | 5.50 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 229.5 | 8% | 6.00 | — |
| Total takedowns over 1.5 | 25% | 1.87 | — |
| Alex Pereira wins by KO/TKO in R4 | 3% | 14.00 | ✗ lost |
| Alex Pereira wins by KO/TKO in R3, R4 or R5 | 8% | 5.50 | ✗ lost |
| Total takedowns over 2.5 | 19% | 2.25 | — |
| Alex Pereira wins by KO/TKO in R3 | 4% | 10.50 | ✗ lost |
| Total takedowns over 3.5 | 12% | 2.80 | — |
| Ciryl Gane takedowns over 1.5 | 17% | 2.00 | — |
| Ciryl Gane significant strikes over 139.5 | 5% | 6.50 | — |
| Alex Pereira wins by Submission in R1 or R2 | 1% | 46.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R5 | 2% | 12.50 | ✗ lost |
| Ciryl Gane wins by KO/TKO in R5 | 1% | 23.00 | ✗ lost |
| Alex Pereira wins by Submission in R2, R3 or R4 | 1% | 46.00 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 239.5 | 4% | 6.75 | — |
| Alex Pereira wins by SUB | 1% | 26.00 | ✗ lost |
| Alex Pereira wins by finish in Round 1 | 9% | 3.00 | ✗ lost |
| Alex Pereira wins by KO/TKO in R5 | 1% | 21.00 | ✗ lost |
| Total takedowns over 4.5 | 6% | 3.80 | — |
| Ciryl Gane significant strikes over 149.5 | 1% | 8.00 | — |
| Total knockdowns over 0.5 | 2% | 1.38 | — |
Model Prediction
Aiemann Zahabi
22%
KO 5%·
Sub 4%·
Dec 13%
Sean O'Malley
✓ won
78%
KO 29%·
Sub 4%·
Dec 44%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Sean O'Malley wins | 78% | 1.22 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Sean O'Malley wins by Decision | 44% | 2.15 | missed |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 57% | 2.20 | missed |
| Every Sportsbet market | Model prob | Odds | Bet result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sean O'Malley takedowns over 0.5 | 23% | 5.50 | — |
| Sean O'Malley wins by Submission in R2 | 2% | 71.00 | ✗ lost |
| Aiemann Zahabi takedowns over 0.5 | 43% | 2.63 | — |
| Sean O'Malley wins by Submission in R1 or R2 | 4% | 29.00 | ✗ lost |
| Sean O'Malley takedowns over 1.5 | 10% | 11.00 | — |
| Fight ends by Submission | 8% | 13.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by Submission in R2 | 3% | 34.00 | ✗ lost |
| Sean O'Malley wins by SUB | 4% | 23.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by finish in Round 2 | 16% | 6.25 | ✓ won |
| Aiemann Zahabi significant strikes over 59.5 | 50% | 2.00 | — |
| Finish before Round 3 | 36% | 2.75 | ✓ won |
| Sean O'Malley wins by Sub or Decision | 49% | 2.03 | ✗ lost |
| Sean O'Malley wins by Submission in R2 or R3 | 2% | 41.00 | ✗ lost |
| Sean O'Malley wins by Decision | 44% | 2.20 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by Submission in R1 | 4% | 26.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight reaches Round 2 | 80% | 1.20 | ✓ won |
| Sean O'Malley wins by Submission in R1 | 2% | 46.00 | ✗ lost |
| Aiemann Zahabi significant strikes over 49.5 | 57% | 1.67 | — |
| Sean O'Malley wins | 78% | 1.22 | ✓ won |
| Sean O'Malley wins by DEC | 44% | 2.15 | ✗ lost |
| Over 2.5 rounds | 61% | 1.57 | ✗ lost |
| Aiemann Zahabi wins | 22% | 4.35 | ✗ lost |
| Aiemann Zahabi wins by Submission in R2 | 1% | 71.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends before decision | 43% | 2.20 | ✓ won |
| Aiemann Zahabi wins by KO or Sub | 9% | 10.50 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2 | 13% | 7.00 | ✓ won |
| Fight goes to decision | 57% | 1.62 | ✗ lost |
| Sean O'Malley wins by KO or Decision | 74% | 1.25 | ✓ won |
| Fight goes to Decision | 57% | 1.61 | ✗ lost |
| Aiemann Zahabi wins by Submission in R1 or R2 | 3% | 31.00 | ✗ lost |
| Aiemann Zahabi takedowns over 1.5 | 16% | 5.50 | — |
| Aiemann Zahabi significant strikes over 39.5 | 64% | 1.40 | — |
| Sean O'Malley wins by KO/TKO in R2 | 11% | 8.00 | ✓ won |
| Aiemann Zahabi significant strikes over 19.5 | 80% | 1.12 | — |
| Under 2.5 rounds | 39% | 2.25 | ✓ won |
| Sean O'Malley significant strikes over 19.5 | 82% | 1.07 | — |
| Sean O'Malley wins by KO or Sub | 34% | 2.60 | ✓ won |
| Aiemann Zahabi wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2 | 5% | 19.00 | ✗ lost |
| Aiemann Zahabi significant strikes over 29.5 | 71% | 1.22 | — |
| Aiemann Zahabi wins by KO or Decision | 18% | 4.70 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 49.5 | 77% | 1.12 | — |
| Sean O'Malley wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2 | 25% | 3.45 | ✓ won |
| Fight ends by finish in Round 1 | 20% | 4.30 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 129.5 | 48% | 1.79 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 119.5 | 52% | 1.63 | — |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO | 35% | 2.45 | ✓ won |
| Aiemann Zahabi wins by KO/TKO in R2 | 2% | 41.00 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 59.5 | 73% | 1.16 | — |
| Sean O'Malley significant strikes over 29.5 | 74% | 1.14 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 109.5 | 56% | 1.50 | — |
| Aiemann Zahabi wins by Sub or Decision | 16% | 5.10 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 69.5 | 69% | 1.20 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 79.5 | 66% | 1.26 | — |
| Aiemann Zahabi wins by Submission in R1 | 2% | 51.00 | ✗ lost |
| Sean O'Malley wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3 | 16% | 5.30 | ✓ won |
| Total significant strikes over 99.5 | 59% | 1.40 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 89.5 | 63% | 1.32 | — |
| Aiemann Zahabi significant strikes over 69.5 | 32% | 2.60 | — |
| Sean O'Malley wins by KO/TKO | 29% | 2.80 | ✓ won |
| Sean O'Malley significant strikes over 39.5 | 67% | 1.22 | — |
| Aiemann Zahabi wins by KO/TKO | 5% | 15.00 | ✗ lost |
| Sean O'Malley significant strikes over 49.5 | 60% | 1.36 | — |
| Aiemann Zahabi wins by SUB | 4% | 23.00 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 139.5 | 41% | 1.98 | — |
| Sean O'Malley significant strikes over 59.5 | 52% | 1.53 | — |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1 | 16% | 4.90 | ✗ lost |
| Aiemann Zahabi wins by KO/TKO in R1 | 3% | 31.00 | ✗ lost |
| Aiemann Zahabi wins by DEC | 13% | 6.00 | ✗ lost |
| Aiemann Zahabi wins in R3+ or by Decision | 14% | 5.50 | ✗ lost |
| Sean O'Malley significant strikes over 69.5 | 44% | 1.72 | — |
| Aiemann Zahabi wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3 | 3% | 26.00 | ✗ lost |
| Sean O'Malley significant strikes over 79.5 | 36% | 2.10 | — |
| Sean O'Malley wins by KO/TKO in R1 | 14% | 5.40 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 149.5 | 34% | 2.20 | — |
| Sean O'Malley wins by Submission in R3 | 1% | 101.00 | ✗ lost |
| Sean O'Malley significant strikes over 89.5 | 27% | 2.50 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 159.5 | 26% | 2.50 | — |
| Fight ends by Submission in R3 | 1% | 51.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by finish in Round 3 | 6% | 9.50 | ✗ lost |
| Sean O'Malley significant strikes over 99.5 | 19% | 3.10 | — |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3 | 5% | 10.50 | ✗ lost |
| Sean O'Malley wins by KO/TKO in R3 | 4% | 12.00 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 169.5 | 19% | 2.85 | — |
| Sean O'Malley significant strikes over 109.5 | 12% | 4.00 | — |
| Aiemann Zahabi wins by KO/TKO in R3 | 1% | 51.00 | ✗ lost |
| Aiemann Zahabi significant strikes over 79.5 | 12% | 3.30 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 179.5 | 11% | 3.35 | — |
| Sean O'Malley significant strikes over 119.5 | 5% | 5.00 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 189.5 | 3% | 3.90 | — |
| Total knockdowns over 0.5 | 2% | 1.83 | — |
Model Prediction
Derrick Lewis
17%
KO 8%·
Sub 1%·
Dec 8%
Josh Hokit
✓ won
83%
KO 55%·
Sub 13%·
Dec 15%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Josh Hokit wins | 83% | 1.23 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Josh Hokit wins by KO/TKO | 55% | 1.77 | ✓ predicted |
| Finish round Finish in Round 1 | 43% | — | missed |
| Every Sportsbet market | Model prob | Odds | Bet result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Lewis wins by DEC | 8% | 21.00 | ✗ lost |
| Derrick Lewis significant strikes over 49.5 | 26% | 5.50 | — |
| Fight goes to Decision | 23% | 6.25 | ✗ lost |
| Derrick Lewis significant strikes over 39.5 | 38% | 3.75 | — |
| Josh Hokit wins by DEC | 15% | 9.25 | ✗ lost |
| Josh Hokit wins in R3+ or by Decision value | 28% | 4.90 | ✗ lost |
| Derrick Lewis significant strikes over 59.5 | 16% | 8.50 | — |
| Fight goes to decision | 23% | 6.00 | ✗ lost |
| Derrick Lewis significant strikes over 29.5 | 49% | 2.75 | — |
| Fight reaches Round 3 | 34% | 3.70 | ✗ lost |
| Derrick Lewis wins by Sub or Decision | 9% | 14.00 | ✗ lost |
| Derrick Lewis takedowns over 0.5 | 23% | 5.00 | — |
| Derrick Lewis significant strikes over 19.5 | 61% | 1.83 | — |
| Under 2.5 rounds | 71% | 1.53 | ✓ won |
| Josh Hokit wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3 | 24% | 4.40 | ✓ won |
| Josh Hokit wins by KO or Decision | 70% | 1.52 | ✓ won |
| Josh Hokit significant strikes over 39.5 | 47% | 2.25 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 89.5 | 32% | 3.25 | — |
| Josh Hokit wins by Sub or Decision | 28% | 3.70 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 99.5 | 27% | 3.80 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 79.5 | 37% | 2.75 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 109.5 | 23% | 4.50 | — |
| Josh Hokit wins | 83% | 1.23 | ✓ won |
| Total significant strikes over 69.5 | 42% | 2.40 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 119.5 | 19% | 5.40 | — |
| Josh Hokit significant strikes over 29.5 | 58% | 1.72 | — |
| Josh Hokit wins by KO/TKO in R2 | 16% | 6.25 | ✓ won |
| Derrick Lewis wins by Decision | 8% | 13.00 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 59.5 | 47% | 2.08 | — |
| Josh Hokit wins by finish in Round 2 | 20% | 5.00 | ✓ won |
| Josh Hokit wins by KO/TKO | 55% | 1.77 | ✓ won |
| Total significant strikes over 49.5 | 53% | 1.79 | — |
| Josh Hokit wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2 | 46% | 2.03 | ✓ won |
| Josh Hokit significant strikes over 19.5 | 68% | 1.36 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 129.5 | 15% | 6.25 | — |
| Josh Hokit wins by KO or Sub | 67% | 1.36 | ✓ won |
| Josh Hokit wins by KO/TKO in R3 | 8% | 11.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2 | 18% | 4.90 | ✓ won |
| Fight ends before decision | 77% | 1.11 | ✓ won |
| Josh Hokit wins by KO/TKO in R1 | 30% | 2.80 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by finish in Round 3 | 12% | 7.25 | ✗ lost |
| Josh Hokit wins by finish in Round 1 | 38% | 2.25 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO | 63% | 1.33 | ✓ won |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3 | 10% | 8.75 | ✗ lost |
| Finish before Round 3 | 66% | 1.25 | ✓ won |
| Total significant strikes over 139.5 | 11% | 7.50 | — |
| Total takedowns over 0.5 | 59% | 1.32 | — |
| Josh Hokit takedowns over 0.5 | 54% | 1.40 | — |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1 | 35% | 2.12 | ✗ lost |
| Derrick Lewis wins | 17% | 4.25 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by Submission | 14% | 5.00 | ✗ lost |
| Josh Hokit wins by SUB | 13% | 5.50 | ✗ lost |
| Josh Hokit significant strikes over 49.5 | 24% | 2.88 | — |
| Derrick Lewis wins by KO or Decision | 16% | 4.30 | ✗ lost |
| Josh Hokit wins by Submission in R1 or R2 | 11% | 6.25 | ✗ lost |
| Over 2.5 rounds | 29% | 2.37 | ✗ lost |
| Josh Hokit wins by Submission in R2 | 4% | 18.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by Submission in R2 | 4% | 16.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by Submission in R3 | 2% | 29.00 | ✗ lost |
| Josh Hokit wins by Submission in R3 | 2% | 31.00 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 149.5 | 7% | 8.75 | — |
| Fight ends by Submission in R1 | 8% | 7.50 | ✗ lost |
| Josh Hokit wins by Submission in R1 | 7% | 8.25 | ✗ lost |
| Josh Hokit wins by finish in Round 1 | 38% | 1.57 | ✗ lost |
| Total takedowns over 1.5 | 34% | 1.73 | — |
| Derrick Lewis wins by Submission in R2 or R3 | 1% | 91.00 | ✗ lost |
| Josh Hokit significant strikes over 59.5 | 15% | 3.75 | — |
| Derrick Lewis wins by Submission in R1 or R2 | 1% | 41.00 | ✗ lost |
| Derrick Lewis wins by SUB | 1% | 34.00 | ✗ lost |
| Derrick Lewis wins by Submission in R1 | 1% | 61.00 | ✗ lost |
| Total takedowns over 2.5 | 21% | 2.20 | — |
| Derrick Lewis wins by KO or Sub | 10% | 4.60 | ✗ lost |
| Derrick Lewis wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3 | 4% | 11.50 | ✗ lost |
| Derrick Lewis wins by KO/TKO | 8% | 5.00 | ✗ lost |
| Total takedowns over 3.5 | 14% | 2.95 | — |
| Derrick Lewis wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2 | 7% | 5.70 | ✗ lost |
| Derrick Lewis wins by KO/TKO in R3 | 1% | 31.00 | ✗ lost |
| Derrick Lewis wins by KO/TKO in R2 | 2% | 16.00 | ✗ lost |
| Josh Hokit takedowns over 1.5 | 21% | 1.83 | — |
| Derrick Lewis wins by KO/TKO in R1 | 5% | 7.75 | ✗ lost |
| Total takedowns over 4.5 | 7% | 4.70 | — |
| Derrick Lewis takedowns over 1.5 | 3% | 11.00 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 159.5 | 3% | 10.50 | — |
| Josh Hokit significant strikes over 69.5 | 6% | 4.50 | — |
| Derrick Lewis wins by finish in Round 1 | 6% | 5.25 | ✗ lost |
| Josh Hokit takedowns over 2.5 | 10% | 2.40 | — |
| Total knockdowns over 0.5 | 2% | 1.22 | — |
Model Prediction
Michael Chandler
15%
KO 5%·
Sub 2%·
Dec 8%
Mauricio Ruffy
✓ won
85%
KO 64%·
Sub 3%·
Dec 19%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Mauricio Ruffy wins | 85% | 1.18 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Mauricio Ruffy wins by KO/TKO | 64% | 1.48 | ✓ predicted |
| Finish round Finish in Round 1 | 43% | — | ✓ predicted |
| Every Sportsbet market | Model prob | Odds | Bet result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mauricio Ruffy takedowns over 0.5 | 23% | 6.00 | — |
| Under 2.5 rounds | 69% | 1.83 | ✓ won |
| Fight goes to decision | 27% | 4.60 | ✗ lost |
| Mauricio Ruffy takedowns over 1.5 | 11% | 11.00 | — |
| Mauricio Ruffy wins by DEC | 19% | 6.50 | ✗ lost |
| Fight goes to Decision | 27% | 4.40 | ✗ lost |
| Mauricio Ruffy wins by Sub or Decision | 22% | 5.25 | ✗ lost |
| Michael Chandler significant strikes over 69.5 | 13% | 8.50 | — |
| Mauricio Ruffy wins by Decision | 19% | 6.00 | ✗ lost |
| Michael Chandler significant strikes over 59.5 | 19% | 6.00 | — |
| Mauricio Ruffy wins by finish in Round 1 | 39% | 2.75 | ✓ won |
| Michael Chandler significant strikes over 49.5 | 24% | 4.33 | — |
| Mauricio Ruffy wins by KO/TKO in R1 | 37% | 2.80 | ✓ won |
| Michael Chandler significant strikes over 39.5 | 35% | 3.00 | — |
| Mauricio Ruffy wins by KO or Decision | 83% | 1.23 | ✓ won |
| Mauricio Ruffy wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2 | 57% | 1.78 | ✓ won |
| Mauricio Ruffy wins | 85% | 1.18 | ✓ won |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1 | 40% | 2.50 | ✓ won |
| Michael Chandler wins by DEC | 8% | 12.00 | ✗ lost |
| Finish before Round 2 | 43% | 2.33 | ✓ won |
| Michael Chandler significant strikes over 29.5 | 46% | 2.10 | — |
| Michael Chandler significant strikes over 19.5 | 60% | 1.57 | — |
| Fight reaches Round 3 | 35% | 2.69 | ✗ lost |
| Mauricio Ruffy wins by KO/TKO | 64% | 1.48 | ✓ won |
| Mauricio Ruffy significant strikes over 29.5 | 58% | 1.62 | — |
| Mauricio Ruffy wins by KO or Sub | 67% | 1.39 | ✓ won |
| Mauricio Ruffy significant strikes over 19.5 | 70% | 1.30 | — |
| Michael Chandler takedowns over 0.5 | 61% | 1.45 | — |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO | 68% | 1.29 | ✓ won |
| Mauricio Ruffy wins by KO/TKO in R2 | 20% | 4.40 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 49.5 | 54% | 1.58 | — |
| Fight ends before decision | 73% | 1.17 | ✓ won |
| Total significant strikes over 89.5 | 31% | 2.70 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 99.5 | 26% | 3.20 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 69.5 | 41% | 2.03 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 79.5 | 36% | 2.30 | — |
| Mauricio Ruffy significant strikes over 39.5 | 42% | 2.00 | — |
| Michael Chandler wins by Decision | 8% | 10.00 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 59.5 | 46% | 1.79 | — |
| Total takedowns over 0.5 | 59% | 1.39 | — |
| Mauricio Ruffy wins by finish in Round 2 | 20% | 4.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2 | 21% | 3.90 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 109.5 | 21% | 3.75 | — |
| Michael Chandler wins by Sub or Decision | 10% | 7.75 | ✗ lost |
| Mauricio Ruffy wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3 | 26% | 2.90 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 119.5 | 17% | 4.50 | — |
| Michael Chandler wins by KO or Decision | 13% | 5.60 | ✗ lost |
| Michael Chandler wins | 15% | 4.90 | ✗ lost |
| Mauricio Ruffy wins by finish in Round 1 | 39% | 1.68 | ✓ won |
| Total takedowns over 1.5 | 36% | 1.79 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 129.5 | 12% | 5.40 | — |
| Mauricio Ruffy significant strikes over 49.5 | 23% | 2.63 | — |
| Mauricio Ruffy significant strikes over 59.5 | 18% | 3.40 | — |
| Over 2.5 rounds | 31% | 1.83 | ✗ lost |
| Mauricio Ruffy significant strikes over 69.5 | 12% | 4.50 | — |
| Mauricio Ruffy wins by Submission in R1 or R2 | 3% | 21.00 | ✗ lost |
| Mauricio Ruffy wins by Submission in R1 | 2% | 31.00 | ✗ lost |
| Mauricio Ruffy wins by SUB | 3% | 18.00 | ✗ lost |
| Mauricio Ruffy wins by KO/TKO in R3 | 7% | 7.50 | ✗ lost |
| Total takedowns over 2.5 | 22% | 2.20 | — |
| Fight ends by Submission in R1 | 3% | 18.00 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 139.5 | 7% | 6.50 | — |
| Michael Chandler takedowns over 1.5 | 24% | 1.91 | — |
| Michael Chandler wins by KO/TKO in R1 | 3% | 17.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3 | 7% | 6.25 | ✗ lost |
| Michael Chandler wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2 | 4% | 11.00 | ✗ lost |
| Mauricio Ruffy wins by Submission in R2 | 1% | 51.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by Submission | 4% | 9.75 | ✗ lost |
| Mauricio Ruffy wins by Submission in R2 or R3 | 1% | 34.00 | ✗ lost |
| Total takedowns over 3.5 | 14% | 2.80 | — |
| Michael Chandler wins by KO/TKO | 5% | 8.75 | ✗ lost |
| Mauricio Ruffy significant strikes over 79.5 | 6% | 6.00 | — |
| Michael Chandler wins by KO or Sub | 6% | 6.25 | ✗ lost |
| Michael Chandler wins by finish in Round 1 | 4% | 10.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by Submission in R2 | 1% | 26.00 | ✗ lost |
| Michael Chandler wins by Submission in R1 | 1% | 34.00 | ✗ lost |
| Michael Chandler wins by KO/TKO in R2 | 1% | 23.00 | ✗ lost |
| Michael Chandler wins by Submission in R1 or R2 | 1% | 21.00 | ✗ lost |
| Michael Chandler wins by finish in Round 1 | 4% | 8.00 | ✗ lost |
| Michael Chandler wins by SUB | 2% | 17.00 | ✗ lost |
| Michael Chandler takedowns over 2.5 | 11% | 2.37 | — |
| Total takedowns over 4.5 | 7% | 3.90 | — |
| Michael Chandler wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3 | 2% | 14.00 | ✗ lost |
| Michael Chandler wins by finish in Round 2 | 2% | 12.00 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 149.5 | 2% | 8.00 | — |
| Mauricio Ruffy significant strikes over 89.5 | 1% | 8.00 | — |
| Total knockdowns over 0.5 | 2% | 1.19 | — |
Model Prediction
Kyle Daukaus
20%
KO 3%·
Sub 9%·
Dec 9%
Bo Nickal
✓ won
80%
KO 39%·
Sub 9%·
Dec 32%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Bo Nickal wins | 80% | 1.30 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Bo Nickal wins by KO/TKO | 39% | 3.10 | ✓ predicted |
| Finish round Finish in Round 1 | 28% | — | ✓ predicted |
| Every Sportsbet market | Model prob | Odds | Bet result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Daukaus takedowns over 0.5 | 33% | 6.00 | — |
| Kyle Daukaus takedowns over 1.5 | 16% | 12.00 | — |
| Bo Nickal wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2 | 32% | 3.90 | ✓ won |
| Bo Nickal wins by KO/TKO | 39% | 3.10 | ✓ won |
| Bo Nickal wins by KO/TKO in R2 | 14% | 9.00 | ✗ lost |
| Bo Nickal wins by KO or Decision value | 71% | 1.71 | ✓ won |
| Bo Nickal wins by KO/TKO in R1 | 19% | 6.25 | ✓ won |
| Bo Nickal wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3 | 21% | 5.60 | ✗ lost |
| Bo Nickal wins by DEC | 32% | 3.50 | ✗ lost |
| Fight goes to decision | 40% | 2.72 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2 | 14% | 7.50 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO | 42% | 2.55 | ✓ won |
| Fight goes to Decision | 40% | 2.65 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1 | 20% | 5.20 | ✓ won |
| Bo Nickal wins in R3+ or by Decision | 41% | 2.55 | ✗ lost |
| Bo Nickal wins | 80% | 1.30 | ✓ won |
| Over 2.5 rounds | 46% | 2.25 | ✗ lost |
| Bo Nickal significant strikes over 19.5 | 73% | 1.36 | — |
| Fight reaches Round 3 | 51% | 1.93 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 49.5 | 60% | 1.61 | — |
| Bo Nickal wins by KO or Sub | 48% | 1.97 | ✓ won |
| Total significant strikes over 59.5 | 52% | 1.83 | — |
| Bo Nickal wins by finish in Round 2 | 17% | 5.50 | ✗ lost |
| Bo Nickal significant strikes over 29.5 | 52% | 1.72 | — |
| Finish before Round 3 | 49% | 1.81 | ✓ won |
| Total significant strikes over 69.5 | 42% | 2.10 | — |
| Kyle Daukaus wins by DEC | 9% | 10.00 | ✗ lost |
| Bo Nickal wins by finish in Round 1 | 23% | 3.75 | ✓ won |
| Bo Nickal wins by Sub or Decision | 40% | 2.12 | ✗ lost |
| Under 2.5 rounds | 54% | 1.57 | ✓ won |
| Fight ends before decision | 60% | 1.42 | ✓ won |
| Bo Nickal significant strikes over 39.5 | 38% | 2.25 | — |
| Bo Nickal wins by KO/TKO in R3 | 7% | 12.00 | ✗ lost |
| Kyle Daukaus wins by Decision | 9% | 9.50 | ✗ lost |
| Total takedowns over 0.5 | 70% | 1.15 | — |
| Kyle Daukaus significant strikes over 19.5 | 49% | 1.57 | — |
| Kyle Daukaus wins by Sub or Decision | 18% | 4.30 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 79.5 | 31% | 2.40 | — |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3 | 8% | 10.00 | ✗ lost |
| Kyle Daukaus significant strikes over 29.5 | 35% | 2.10 | — |
| Bo Nickal significant strikes over 59.5 | 19% | 3.75 | — |
| Kyle Daukaus wins | 20% | 3.52 | ✗ lost |
| Bo Nickal significant strikes over 49.5 | 24% | 2.88 | — |
| Total takedowns over 1.5 | 48% | 1.42 | — |
| Kyle Daukaus wins by KO or Decision | 11% | 6.00 | ✗ lost |
| Bo Nickal significant strikes over 69.5 | 14% | 5.00 | — |
| Kyle Daukaus significant strikes over 39.5 | 23% | 2.88 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 89.5 | 23% | 2.85 | — |
| Bo Nickal takedowns over 0.5 | 55% | 1.20 | — |
| Kyle Daukaus significant strikes over 49.5 | 15% | 4.00 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 99.5 | 18% | 3.35 | — |
| Kyle Daukaus wins by Submission in R1 or R2 | 7% | 8.00 | ✗ lost |
| Kyle Daukaus wins by Submission in R2 | 3% | 19.00 | ✗ lost |
| Kyle Daukaus wins by SUB | 9% | 6.50 | ✗ lost |
| Bo Nickal wins by finish in Round 1 | 23% | 2.50 | ✓ won |
| Kyle Daukaus wins by KO or Sub | 12% | 4.70 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 109.5 | 13% | 4.00 | — |
| Fight ends by Submission in R2 | 6% | 8.75 | ✗ lost |
| Bo Nickal significant strikes over 79.5 | 8% | 6.50 | — |
| Fight ends by Submission | 18% | 2.95 | ✗ lost |
| Kyle Daukaus wins by Submission in R1 | 4% | 12.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by Submission in R1 | 8% | 5.80 | ✗ lost |
| Total takedowns over 2.5 | 27% | 1.70 | — |
| Bo Nickal wins by Submission in R1 or R2 | 7% | 6.00 | ✗ lost |
| Kyle Daukaus significant strikes over 59.5 | 8% | 5.50 | — |
| Bo Nickal wins by SUB | 9% | 4.90 | ✗ lost |
| Kyle Daukaus wins by finish in Round 1 | 6% | 7.50 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 119.5 | 9% | 4.80 | — |
| Kyle Daukaus wins by Submission in R3 | 2% | 26.00 | ✗ lost |
| Kyle Daukaus wins by finish in Round 2 | 4% | 10.00 | ✗ lost |
| Bo Nickal wins by Submission in R2 | 3% | 13.00 | ✗ lost |
| Total takedowns over 3.5 | 18% | 2.10 | — |
| Bo Nickal wins by Submission in R2 or R3 | 5% | 8.50 | ✗ lost |
| Bo Nickal wins by Submission in R1 | 4% | 9.25 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by Submission in R3 | 3% | 11.50 | ✗ lost |
| Bo Nickal takedowns over 1.5 | 24% | 1.50 | — |
| Kyle Daukaus wins by KO/TKO | 3% | 12.00 | ✗ lost |
| Kyle Daukaus wins by finish in Round 1 | 6% | 5.75 | ✗ lost |
| Kyle Daukaus wins by KO/TKO in R2 | 1% | 34.00 | ✗ lost |
| Kyle Daukaus wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2 | 2% | 14.00 | ✗ lost |
| Total takedowns over 4.5 | 11% | 2.75 | — |
| Kyle Daukaus wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3 | 1% | 21.00 | ✗ lost |
| Bo Nickal wins by Submission in R3 | 2% | 18.00 | ✗ lost |
| Kyle Daukaus wins by KO/TKO in R1 | 1% | 21.00 | ✗ lost |
| Bo Nickal takedowns over 2.5 | 15% | 1.72 | — |
| Bo Nickal significant strikes over 89.5 | 3% | 9.00 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 129.5 | 4% | 5.75 | — |
| Total takedowns over 5.5 | 4% | 3.45 | — |
| Bo Nickal takedowns over 3.5 | 6% | 2.20 | — |
| Total knockdowns over 0.5 | 2% | 1.73 | — |
Model Prediction
Steve Garcia
57%
KO 27%·
Sub 3%·
Dec 27%
Diego Lopes
✓ won
43%
KO 13%·
Sub 10%·
Dec 20%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Steve Garcia wins value | 57% | 2.29 | missed |
| Method Steve Garcia wins by Decision value | 27% | 5.50 | missed |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 47% | 2.83 | missed |
| Every Sportsbet market | Model prob | Odds | Bet result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Garcia significant strikes over 89.5 | 24% | 8.00 | — |
| Steve Garcia significant strikes over 79.5 | 34% | 5.50 | — |
| Steve Garcia significant strikes over 69.5 | 43% | 4.20 | — |
| Steve Garcia significant strikes over 59.5 | 51% | 3.10 | — |
| Steve Garcia wins by DEC value | 27% | 5.50 | ✗ lost |
| Steve Garcia wins by Sub or Decision value | 30% | 5.00 | ✗ lost |
| Steve Garcia wins in R3+ or by Decision value | 32% | 4.25 | ✗ lost |
| Steve Garcia significant strikes over 49.5 | 58% | 2.37 | — |
| Fight goes to decision | 47% | 2.83 | ✗ lost |
| Steve Garcia wins value | 57% | 2.29 | ✗ lost |
| Fight goes to Decision | 47% | 2.75 | ✗ lost |
| Steve Garcia wins by KO or Decision value | 54% | 2.30 | ✗ lost |
| Steve Garcia significant strikes over 39.5 | 65% | 1.83 | — |
| Steve Garcia wins by KO/TKO in R2 | 11% | 10.50 | ✗ lost |
| Steve Garcia wins by finish in Round 2 | 12% | 9.50 | ✗ lost |
| Fight reaches Round 3 | 57% | 2.00 | ✗ lost |
| Steve Garcia takedowns over 0.5 | 32% | 3.50 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 99.5 | 49% | 2.30 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 89.5 | 54% | 2.02 | — |
| Steve Garcia significant strikes over 29.5 | 71% | 1.53 | — |
| Steve Garcia wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2 | 23% | 4.75 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 109.5 | 42% | 2.60 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 79.5 | 59% | 1.82 | — |
| Steve Garcia wins by Submission in R2 | 1% | 101.00 | ✗ lost |
| Steve Garcia wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3 | 15% | 7.00 | ✗ lost |
| Diego Lopes wins by DEC | 20% | 5.30 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 69.5 | 64% | 1.64 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 119.5 | 34% | 3.05 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 59.5 | 70% | 1.50 | — |
| Steve Garcia wins by KO or Sub | 30% | 3.50 | ✗ lost |
| Under 2.5 rounds | 47% | 2.20 | ✓ won |
| Steve Garcia wins by KO/TKO | 27% | 3.80 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 49.5 | 75% | 1.37 | — |
| Steve Garcia significant strikes over 19.5 | 80% | 1.28 | — |
| Diego Lopes significant strikes over 29.5 | 66% | 1.53 | — |
| Diego Lopes significant strikes over 39.5 | 55% | 1.83 | — |
| Diego Lopes wins by Decision | 20% | 5.00 | ✗ lost |
| Diego Lopes significant strikes over 19.5 | 77% | 1.28 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 129.5 | 27% | 3.60 | — |
| Diego Lopes significant strikes over 49.5 | 42% | 2.30 | — |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2 | 16% | 5.75 | ✓ won |
| Total significant strikes over 139.5 | 22% | 4.30 | — |
| Steve Garcia wins by Submission in R1 or R2 | 2% | 41.00 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 149.5 | 17% | 5.10 | — |
| Steve Garcia wins by SUB | 3% | 34.00 | ✗ lost |
| Over 2.5 rounds | 53% | 1.61 | ✗ lost |
| Steve Garcia wins by KO/TKO in R1 | 12% | 7.25 | ✗ lost |
| Diego Lopes significant strikes over 59.5 | 27% | 3.10 | — |
| Steve Garcia takedowns over 1.5 | 12% | 7.00 | — |
| Diego Lopes takedowns over 0.5 | 55% | 1.50 | — |
| Diego Lopes wins by Sub or Decision | 30% | 2.75 | ✗ lost |
| Total takedowns over 0.5 | 62% | 1.32 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 159.5 | 13% | 6.25 | — |
| Finish before Round 3 | 44% | 1.75 | ✓ won |
| Steve Garcia wins by finish in Round 1 | 13% | 6.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO | 40% | 1.91 | ✓ won |
| Steve Garcia wins by Submission in R1 | 1% | 67.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends before decision | 53% | 1.40 | ✓ won |
| Diego Lopes wins by KO or Decision | 33% | 2.20 | ✓ won |
| Diego Lopes wins | 43% | 1.63 | ✓ won |
| Total takedowns over 1.5 | 40% | 1.72 | — |
| Fight ends by Submission in R2 | 5% | 13.00 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 169.5 | 9% | 7.75 | — |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1 | 17% | 3.75 | ✗ lost |
| Steve Garcia wins by KO/TKO in R3 | 4% | 15.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by Submission | 13% | 4.75 | ✗ lost |
| Diego Lopes wins by Submission in R2 | 4% | 14.00 | ✗ lost |
| Steve Garcia wins by finish in Round 1 | 13% | 4.40 | ✗ lost |
| Diego Lopes wins by Submission in R1 or R2 | 9% | 6.25 | ✗ lost |
| Diego Lopes wins by KO/TKO in R2 | 5% | 10.00 | ✓ won |
| Diego Lopes wins by Submission in R2 or R3 | 6% | 9.25 | ✗ lost |
| Diego Lopes wins by SUB | 10% | 5.20 | ✗ lost |
| Diego Lopes takedowns over 1.5 | 27% | 1.91 | — |
| Total takedowns over 2.5 | 23% | 2.20 | — |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3 | 6% | 8.25 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by finish in Round 3 | 8% | 6.25 | ✗ lost |
| Diego Lopes wins by KO or Sub | 23% | 2.20 | ✓ won |
| Fight ends by Submission in R1 | 5% | 8.75 | ✗ lost |
| Diego Lopes wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2 | 11% | 4.40 | ✓ won |
| Diego Lopes wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3 | 7% | 6.50 | ✓ won |
| Diego Lopes wins by KO/TKO | 13% | 3.50 | ✓ won |
| Diego Lopes wins by Submission in R1 | 4% | 9.75 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 179.5 | 4% | 9.75 | — |
| Total takedowns over 3.5 | 14% | 2.85 | — |
| Fight ends by Submission in R3 | 2% | 19.00 | ✗ lost |
| Diego Lopes wins by KO/TKO in R1 | 6% | 6.75 | ✗ lost |
| Diego Lopes wins by Submission in R3 | 2% | 21.00 | ✗ lost |
| Diego Lopes significant strikes over 69.5 | 7% | 4.33 | — |
| Diego Lopes wins by KO/TKO in R3 | 2% | 14.00 | ✗ lost |
| Diego Lopes wins by finish in Round 1 | 10% | 2.70 | ✗ lost |
| Total takedowns over 4.5 | 6% | 4.10 | — |
| Diego Lopes takedowns over 2.5 | 5% | 2.50 | — |
| Total knockdowns over 0.5 | 2% | 1.36 | — |