The matrix is quiet — no upcoming predictions yet.
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⟁ Past Events — Predictions vs. Actual Results
186 / 273
Correct Picks
68.1% accuracy · 27 events
9 / 16
Parlay Legs ▾
9 parlays
· −$514
−$859
Running P&L · opening ▾
$1000 / event · Conservative · Kelly-weighted
· closing: +$402
68 of 94
confident picks landed — when the model gives a fighter 70%+ it has been right 72% of the time
14–26
betting record with the same amount on every recommended bet (-14.9 units — early days, small sample)
Bankroll curve
$1000 per event · Conservative tier · opening odds
−$859
2026-06-15
peak $160 · trough $-946
2026-09-19
UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2
2026-09-19 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly ·
+$11
| Pick | Fight | Odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dooho Choi wins | Patricio Pitbull vs Dooho Choi | 1.39 | $72 | ✗ lost −$72 |
| Edmen Shahbazyan wins | Edmen Shahbazyan vs Brunno Ferreira | 1.59 | $63 | ✓ won +$37 |
| Joshua Van wins | Alexandre Pantoja vs Joshua Van | 1.85 | $54 | ✓ won +$46 |
Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado
2026-09-12 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly ·
−$95
| Pick | Fight | Odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Delgado wins | Jean Silva vs Jose Delgado | 4.25 | — | ⋯ pending |
| Rafa Garcia wins | Rafa Garcia vs Rongzhu | 2.53 | $74 | ✗ lost −$74 |
| Marwan Rahiki wins | Tommy McMillen vs Marwan Rahiki | 2.37 | $21 | ✗ lost −$21 |
UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse
2026-09-05 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly ·
−$52
| Pick | Fight | Odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Pinto wins | Ryan Spann vs Mario Pinto | 1.35 | $80 | ✓ won +$28 |
| Dan Hooker wins | Dan Hooker vs Salahdine Parnasse | 5.75 | $80 | ✗ lost −$80 |
UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song
2026-08-29 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly ·
−$4
| Pick | Fight | Odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julia Polastri wins | Xiong Jingnan vs Julia Polastri | 1.45 | — | ⋯ pending |
| Nilson Rojas wins | Bilal Hasan vs Nilson Rojas | 5.50 | $80 | ✗ lost −$80 |
| Denise Gomes wins | Yan Xiaonan vs Denise Gomes | 2.32 | $57 | ✓ won +$76 |
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues
2026-08-22 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly ·
−$111
| Pick | Fight | Odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance Chatman wins | Anthony Wint vs Terrance Chatman | 8.00 | $80 | ✗ lost −$80 |
| Ryan Kuse wins | Marcio Barbosa vs Ryan Kuse | 7.00 | $31 | ✗ lost −$31 |
UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry
2026-08-15 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly ·
−$80
| Pick | Fight | Odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gillian Robertson wins | Mackenzie Dern vs Gillian Robertson | 2.72 | $80 | ✗ lost −$80 |
UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld
2026-08-08 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly ·
−$75
| Pick | Fight | Odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louie Sutherland wins | Henrique Da Silva Lopes vs Louie Sutherland | 1.63 | — | ⋯ pending |
| Guilherme Pat wins | Steven Asplund vs Guilherme Pat | 3.02 | $49 | ✗ lost −$49 |
| Jessie Rosas wins | Miles Johns vs Jessie Rosas | 2.33 | — | ⋯ pending |
| Amanda Lemos wins | Amanda Lemos vs Alexia Thainara | 3.02 | $27 | ✗ lost −$27 |
UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez
2026-08-01 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly ·
−$56
| Pick | Fight | Odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateusz Rebecki wins | Kyle Prepolec vs Mateusz Rebecki | 1.18 | $80 | ✓ won +$14 |
| Oban Elliott wins | Oban Elliott vs Michael Oliveira | 3.57 | $80 | ✗ lost −$80 |
| Bogdan Grad wins | Dennis Buzukja vs Bogdan Grad | 1.52 | $62 | ✓ won +$32 |
| Fight goes to Decision | Daniel Rodriguez vs Uros Medic | 7.25 | $22 | ✗ lost −$22 |
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov
2026-07-25 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly ·
−$102
| Pick | Fight | Odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nurullo Aliev wins | Mike Davis vs Nurullo Aliev | 1.54 | $80 | ✓ won +$43 |
| Tyrell Fortune wins | Rizvan Kuniev vs Tyrell Fortune | 3.34 | $80 | ✗ lost −$80 |
| Damian Rzepecki wins | Magomed Zaynukov vs Damian Rzepecki | 3.73 | $43 | ✗ lost −$43 |
| Dustin Jacoby wins | Dustin Jacoby vs Muhammad Said | 1.59 | $23 | ✗ lost −$23 |
UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman
2026-07-18 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly ·
+$38
| Pick | Fight | Odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Hooper wins | Chase Hooper vs Mitch Ramirez | 1.27 | $80 | ✓ won +$22 |
| Christian Leroy Duncan wins | Jared Cannonier vs Christian Leroy Duncan | 1.32 | $80 | ✓ won +$26 |
| Dricus Du Plessis wins by SUB | Kamaru Usman vs Dricus Du Plessis | 9.25 | $55 | ✗ lost −$55 |
| Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani wins | Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs Seokhyeon Ko | 2.66 | $28 | ✓ won +$46 |
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2
2026-07-11 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly ·
−$200
| Pick | Fight | Odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elisha Ellison wins | Gable Steveson vs Elisha Ellison | 10.00 | $138 | ✗ lost −$138 |
| Benoit Saint Denis wins | Paddy Pimblett vs Benoit Saint Denis | 1.53 | $62 | ✗ lost −$62 |
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres
2026-06-27 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly ·
−$216
| Pick | Fight | Odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manuel Torres wins | Rafael Fiziev vs Manuel Torres | 1.96 | $115 | ✗ lost −$115 |
| Eric Nolan wins by Sub or Decision | Eric Nolan vs Farman Hasanov | 5.30 | $70 | ✗ lost −$70 |
| Matheus Camilo wins | Nazim Sadykhov vs Matheus Camilo | 2.99 | $48 | ✓ won +$95 |
| Ends in Round 3+ / Decision | Julius Walker vs Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev | 3.92 | $44 | ✗ lost −$44 |
| Fight reaches Round 2 | Julius Walker vs Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev | 2.17 | $44 | ✗ lost −$44 |
| Michel Pereira wins | Michel Pereira vs Shara Magomedov | 3.82 | $37 | ✗ lost −$37 |
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi 2
2026-06-20 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly ·
+$109
| Pick | Fight | Odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luana Santos wins | Karol Rosa vs Luana Santos | 1.97 | $157 | ✓ won +$152 |
| Kyoji Horiguchi wins by KO/TKO | Kyoji Horiguchi vs Manel Kape | 11.50 | $43 | ✗ lost −$43 |
UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje
2026-06-15 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly ·
−$26
| Pick | Fight | Odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Hokit wins by KO or Decision | Derrick Lewis vs Josh Hokit | 1.78 | $73 | ✓ won +$57 |
| Ilia Topuria wins by DEC | Justin Gaethje vs Ilia Topuria | 13.00 | $57 | ✗ lost −$57 |
| Steve Garcia wins | Steve Garcia vs Diego Lopes | 2.48 | $52 | ✗ lost −$52 |
| Bo Nickal wins by KO or Decision | Kyle Daukaus vs Bo Nickal | 1.71 | $38 | ✓ won +$27 |
9 / 16
Legs landed
56.2% of picks
2 / 9
Parlays won
every leg has to land
−$514
Profit
$100 on each
Only 9 parlays
settled so far — far too few to judge the profit either way. On 93 past cards,
parlays picked this way landed 61% of the time.
UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2
2026-09-19 ·
−$100
2-leg @ 2.21
Dooho Choi wins @ 1.39Edmen Shahbazyan wins @ 1.59
✗ LOST
−$100
Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado
2026-09-12 ·
−$100
2-leg @ 3.35
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision @ 2.22Edgar Chairez wins @ 1.51
✗ LOST
−$100
UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse
2026-09-05 ·
+$107
2-leg @ 2.07
Mario Pinto wins @ 1.35Felipe Lima wins @ 1.53
✓ WON
+$107
UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song
2026-08-29 ·
−$100
2-leg @ 1.81
Julia Polastri wins @ 1.45Ends in Round 3+ / Decision @ 1.25
✗ LOST
−$100
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues
2026-08-22 ·
−$100
2-leg @ 2.31
Fight reaches Round 2 @ 1.30Gauge Young wins @ 1.78
✗ LOST
−$100
UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez
2026-08-01 ·
+$79
2-leg @ 1.79
Mateusz Rebecki wins @ 1.18Bogdan Grad wins @ 1.52
✓ WON
+$79
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov
2026-07-25 ·
−$100
2-leg @ 2.45
Dustin Jacoby wins @ 1.59Nurullo Aliev wins @ 1.54
✗ LOST
−$100
UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman
2026-07-18 ·
−$100
2-leg @ 2.24
Christian Leroy Duncan wins @ 1.32Alvin Hines wins @ 1.70
✗ LOST
−$100
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2
2026-07-11 ·
−$100
2-leg @ 1.99
Damian Pinas wins @ 1.46Fight reaches Round 2 @ 1.36
✗ LOST
−$100
UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje 5/7 · 71%
2026-06-15
▼
Model Prediction
Justin Gaethje
✓ won
12%
KO 10%·
Sub 1%·
Dec 2%
Ilia Topuria
88%
KO 47%·
Sub 17%·
Dec 24%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Ilia Topuria wins value | 88% | 1.21 | missed |
| Method Ilia Topuria wins by KO/TKO | 47% | 1.49 | missed |
| Finish round Finish in Round 2 | 32% | — | missed |
| Every SportsBet market | Model prob | Odds | Bet result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ilia Topuria significant strikes over 39.5 | 64% | 26.00 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 69.5 | 59% | 26.00 | — |
| Justin Gaethje significant strikes over 39.5 | 53% | 26.00 | — |
| Ilia Topuria significant strikes over 49.5 | 58% | 21.00 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 34.5 | 75% | 14.00 | — |
| Justin Gaethje significant strikes over 24.5 | 66% | 15.00 | — |
| Ilia Topuria significant strikes over 29.5 | 70% | 14.00 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 49.5 | 68% | 14.00 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 59.5 | 64% | 15.00 | — |
| Ilia Topuria significant strikes over 19.5 | 76% | 12.00 | — |
| Justin Gaethje significant strikes over 29.5 | 62% | 14.00 | — |
| Justin Gaethje significant strikes over 14.5 | 76% | 10.00 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 29.5 | 80% | 9.50 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 44.5 | 70% | 10.00 | — |
| Ilia Topuria significant strikes over 24.5 | 73% | 9.00 | — |
| Justin Gaethje significant strikes over 19.5 | 71% | 9.00 | — |
| Ilia Topuria significant strikes over 14.5 | 83% | 7.00 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 39.5 | 73% | 7.50 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 24.5 | 84% | 6.50 | — |
| Ilia Topuria significant strikes over 9.5 | 90% | 5.50 | — |
| Justin Gaethje significant strikes over 9.5 | 86% | 5.50 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 19.5 | 88% | 4.50 | — |
| Ilia Topuria wins by DEC value | 24% | 15.00 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 14.5 | 93% | 3.10 | — |
| Justin Gaethje significant strikes over 4.5 | 95% | 2.50 | — |
| Ilia Topuria wins by Sub or Decision value | 41% | 5.40 | ✗ lost |
| Ends in Round 3+ / Decision | 58% | 3.70 | ✓ won |
| Ilia Topuria wins in R4+ or by Decision value | 37% | 5.70 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 9.5 | 97% | 2.10 | — |
| Ilia Topuria significant strikes over 4.5 | 97% | 1.91 | — |
| Fight goes to Decision | 26% | 7.25 | ✗ lost |
| Ilia Topuria wins by Submission in R2, R3 or R4 | 13% | 13.00 | ✗ lost |
| Ilia Topuria wins by Submission in R2 | 7% | 23.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight goes to decision | 26% | 6.50 | ✗ lost |
| Total takedowns over 2.5 | 22% | 7.25 | — |
| Fight ends by Submission in R2 | 8% | 21.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight reaches Round 5 | 31% | 5.20 | ✗ lost |
| Ilia Topuria significant strikes over 44.5 | 61% | 2.50 | — |
| Ilia Topuria wins by Submission in R4 | 2% | 61.00 | ✗ lost |
| Ilia Topuria wins by Submission in R4 or R5 | 4% | 41.00 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 4.5 | 100% | 1.45 | — |
| Total takedowns over 1.5 | 39% | 3.70 | — |
| Ilia Topuria takedowns over 0.5 | 59% | 2.40 | — |
| Total takedowns over 3.5 | 14% | 10.00 | — |
| Justin Gaethje significant strikes over 49.5 | 46% | 3.00 | — |
| Ilia Topuria takedowns over 1.5 | 34% | 4.00 | — |
| Ilia Topuria wins by finish in Round 2 | 28% | 4.80 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by Submission in R4 | 3% | 51.00 | ✗ lost |
| Justin Gaethje significant strikes over 44.5 | 49% | 2.63 | — |
| Ilia Topuria significant strikes over 34.5 | 67% | 1.91 | — |
| Ilia Topuria wins by SUB | 17% | 7.50 | ✗ lost |
| Ilia Topuria takedowns over 2.5 | 18% | 7.00 | — |
| Ilia Topuria significant strikes over 59.5 | 52% | 2.37 | — |
| Ilia Topuria significant strikes over 69.5 | 43% | 2.80 | — |
| Justin Gaethje significant strikes over 34.5 | 57% | 2.10 | — |
| Ilia Topuria wins by Submission in R3 | 4% | 31.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by Submission in R3 | 4% | 29.00 | ✗ lost |
| Ilia Topuria wins by Submission in R5 | 1% | 101.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by Submission | 18% | 6.50 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2 | 25% | 4.70 | ✗ lost |
| Ilia Topuria wins by KO/TKO in R2 | 20% | 5.60 | ✗ lost |
| Total takedowns over 0.5 | 64% | 1.74 | — |
| Justin Gaethje significant strikes over 109.5 | 17% | 6.50 | — |
| Justin Gaethje significant strikes over 69.5 | 34% | 3.25 | — |
| Justin Gaethje significant strikes over 59.5 | 40% | 2.70 | — |
| Ilia Topuria significant strikes over 79.5 | 33% | 3.30 | — |
| Justin Gaethje significant strikes over 89.5 | 24% | 4.50 | — |
| Ilia Topuria wins value | 88% | 1.21 | ✗ lost |
| Justin Gaethje significant strikes over 79.5 | 28% | 3.75 | — |
| Ilia Topuria wins by KO/TKO in R2, R3 or R4 | 38% | 2.80 | ✗ lost |
| Justin Gaethje significant strikes over 119.5 | 14% | 7.50 | — |
| Justin Gaethje significant strikes over 99.5 | 20% | 5.00 | — |
| Under 2.5 rounds | 50% | 2.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by Submission in R5 | 1% | 81.00 | ✗ lost |
| Ilia Topuria wins by KO or Decision | 71% | 1.38 | ✗ lost |
| Justin Gaethje significant strikes over 129.5 | 11% | 9.00 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 99.5 | 46% | 2.10 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 79.5 | 54% | 1.79 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 129.5 | 36% | 2.70 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 89.5 | 50% | 1.94 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 119.5 | 39% | 2.45 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 109.5 | 43% | 2.25 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 139.5 | 33% | 2.95 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 149.5 | 29% | 3.20 | — |
| Ilia Topuria wins by KO/TKO in R4 or R5 | 10% | 9.25 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by finish in Round 3 | 17% | 5.40 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 159.5 | 26% | 3.50 | — |
| Total takedowns over 4.5 | 6% | 15.00 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 169.5 | 23% | 3.80 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 179.5 | 21% | 4.20 | — |
| Ilia Topuria significant strikes over 89.5 | 23% | 3.75 | — |
| Justin Gaethje wins by KO/TKO in R2 | 4% | 21.00 | ✗ lost |
| Ilia Topuria wins by KO/TKO in R4 | 7% | 13.00 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 189.5 | 19% | 4.60 | — |
| Over 2.5 rounds | 50% | 1.72 | ✓ won |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R4 | 8% | 10.50 | ✓ won |
| Justin Gaethje significant strikes over 139.5 | 8% | 11.00 | — |
| Justin Gaethje wins by finish in Round 2 | 5% | 18.00 | ✗ lost |
| Justin Gaethje wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3 | 6% | 13.00 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 199.5 | 16% | 5.00 | — |
| Ilia Topuria wins by KO or Sub | 64% | 1.27 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends before decision | 74% | 1.08 | ✓ won |
| Ilia Topuria takedowns over 3.5 | 7% | 12.00 | — |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3 | 13% | 6.25 | ✗ lost |
| Finish before Round 5 | 69% | 1.14 | ✓ won |
| Ilia Topuria significant strikes over 99.5 | 17% | 4.50 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 209.5 | 14% | 5.50 | — |
| Ilia Topuria wins by KO/TKO in R3 | 11% | 7.25 | ✗ lost |
| Ilia Topuria wins by KO/TKO in R5 | 3% | 23.00 | ✗ lost |
| Ends in Round 3+ / Decision | 58% | 1.25 | ✓ won |
| Total significant strikes over 219.5 | 12% | 6.00 | — |
| Ilia Topuria wins by KO/TKO | 47% | 1.49 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO | 57% | 1.22 | ✓ won |
| Total significant strikes over 229.5 | 10% | 6.75 | — |
| Ilia Topuria significant strikes over 109.5 | 12% | 5.50 | — |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R5 | 4% | 16.00 | ✗ lost |
| Justin Gaethje wins by KO/TKO in R3 or R4 | 4% | 17.00 | ✓ won |
| Justin Gaethje takedowns over 0.5 | 19% | 3.10 | — |
| Justin Gaethje wins by KO or Sub | 11% | 5.50 | ✓ won |
| Justin Gaethje wins by KO/TKO | 10% | 6.00 | ✓ won |
| Justin Gaethje wins by KO/TKO in R3 | 2% | 26.00 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 239.5 | 7% | 7.50 | — |
| Justin Gaethje wins | 12% | 4.45 | ✓ won |
| Justin Gaethje wins by KO or Decision | 11% | 4.60 | ✓ won |
| Justin Gaethje wins by Submission in R2, R3 or R4 | 1% | 61.00 | ✗ lost |
| Justin Gaethje wins by finish in Round 4 | 2% | 31.00 | ✓ won |
| Justin Gaethje wins by KO/TKO in R4 | 1% | 34.00 | ✓ won |
| Justin Gaethje wins by KO/TKO in R4 or R5 | 2% | 21.00 | ✓ won |
| Total significant strikes over 249.5 | 5% | 8.25 | — |
| Ilia Topuria significant strikes over 119.5 | 6% | 7.00 | — |
| Justin Gaethje wins by SUB | 1% | 34.00 | ✗ lost |
| Ilia Topuria wins by Submission in R1 | 2% | 15.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by Submission in R1 | 2% | 13.00 | ✗ lost |
| Justin Gaethje wins by KO/TKO in R5 | 1% | 46.00 | ✗ lost |
| Justin Gaethje wins by finish in Round 5 | 1% | 41.00 | ✗ lost |
| Justin Gaethje wins by Sub or Decision | 3% | 11.00 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 259.5 | 3% | 9.25 | — |
| Fight ends by finish in Round 1 | 10% | 2.45 | ✗ lost |
| Justin Gaethje wins by DEC | 2% | 14.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1 | 7% | 2.85 | ✗ lost |
| Ilia Topuria wins by KO/TKO in R1 | 6% | 3.35 | ✗ lost |
| Justin Gaethje wins by KO/TKO in R1 | 1% | 15.00 | ✗ lost |
| Justin Gaethje takedowns over 1.5 | 4% | 5.00 | — |
| Total knockdowns over 0.5 | 2% | 1.25 | — |
▼
Model Prediction
Ciryl Gane
✓ won
63%
KO 27%·
Sub 8%·
Dec 27%
Alex Pereira
37%
KO 24%·
Sub 1%·
Dec 12%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Ciryl Gane wins value | 63% | 1.96 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Ciryl Gane wins by Decision | 27% | 3.80 | missed |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 39% | 2.65 | missed |
| Every SportsBet market | Model prob | Odds | Bet result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total significant strikes over 69.5 | 66% | 23.00 | — |
| Alex Pereira significant strikes over 39.5 | 60% | 23.00 | — |
| Ciryl Gane significant strikes over 49.5 | 52% | 26.00 | — |
| Alex Pereira significant strikes over 29.5 | 69% | 18.00 | — |
| Ciryl Gane significant strikes over 39.5 | 62% | 17.00 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 59.5 | 71% | 13.00 | — |
| Alex Pereira significant strikes over 34.5 | 64% | 13.00 | — |
| Ciryl Gane significant strikes over 44.5 | 57% | 14.00 | — |
| Alex Pereira significant strikes over 19.5 | 79% | 9.00 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 49.5 | 75% | 7.50 | — |
| Ciryl Gane significant strikes over 29.5 | 71% | 7.50 | — |
| Ciryl Gane significant strikes over 34.5 | 66% | 7.50 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 44.5 | 78% | 5.50 | — |
| Alex Pereira significant strikes over 14.5 | 85% | 4.50 | — |
| Alex Pereira significant strikes over 24.5 | 74% | 5.00 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 39.5 | 80% | 4.50 | — |
| Ciryl Gane significant strikes over 19.5 | 80% | 3.75 | — |
| Ciryl Gane significant strikes over 24.5 | 75% | 3.60 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 34.5 | 83% | 3.20 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 29.5 | 86% | 3.10 | — |
| Alex Pereira significant strikes over 9.5 | 90% | 2.70 | — |
| Ciryl Gane significant strikes over 9.5 | 89% | 2.40 | — |
| Alex Pereira significant strikes over 49.5 | 50% | 3.75 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 24.5 | 88% | 2.00 | — |
| Alex Pereira significant strikes over 44.5 | 55% | 3.10 | — |
| Ciryl Gane significant strikes over 14.5 | 85% | 1.91 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 19.5 | 91% | 1.67 | — |
| Ciryl Gane wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2 | 18% | 8.00 | ✓ won |
| Ciryl Gane wins by KO/TKO in R2 | 8% | 17.00 | ✓ won |
| Ciryl Gane wins by finish in Round 2 | 11% | 13.00 | ✓ won |
| Alex Pereira takedowns over 0.5 | 23% | 6.00 | — |
| Alex Pereira significant strikes over 4.5 | 96% | 1.40 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 14.5 | 93% | 1.40 | — |
| Ciryl Gane wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3 | 13% | 10.00 | ✓ won |
| Ciryl Gane wins by KO/TKO | 27% | 4.60 | ✓ won |
| Ciryl Gane wins by KO/TKO in R1 | 10% | 13.00 | ✗ lost |
| Ciryl Gane wins by finish in Round 1 | 13% | 10.00 | ✗ lost |
| Ciryl Gane wins by KO or Sub | 36% | 3.50 | ✓ won |
| Ciryl Gane wins value | 63% | 1.96 | ✓ won |
| Ciryl Gane wins by KO or Decision value | 55% | 2.18 | ✓ won |
| Ends in Round 3+ / Decision | 60% | 1.94 | ✗ lost |
| Ciryl Gane wins by Submission in R2 | 3% | 46.00 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 9.5 | 96% | 1.20 | — |
| Ciryl Gane wins by Submission in R1 or R2 | 5% | 21.00 | ✗ lost |
| Ciryl Gane wins by Sub or Decision | 36% | 3.10 | ✗ lost |
| Over 2.5 rounds | 55% | 2.00 | ✗ lost |
| Ends in Round 3+ / Decision | 60% | 1.80 | ✗ lost |
| Ciryl Gane significant strikes over 4.5 | 94% | 1.14 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 4.5 | 99% | 1.07 | — |
| Alex Pereira significant strikes over 79.5 | 31% | 3.40 | — |
| Finish before Round 3 | 40% | 2.61 | ✓ won |
| Ciryl Gane wins by DEC | 27% | 3.80 | ✗ lost |
| Fight goes to decision | 39% | 2.65 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2 | 16% | 6.50 | ✓ won |
| Alex Pereira takedowns over 1.5 | 9% | 11.00 | — |
| Alex Pereira significant strikes over 69.5 | 37% | 2.70 | — |
| Fight goes to Decision | 39% | 2.55 | ✗ lost |
| Ciryl Gane wins in R4+ or by Decision | 34% | 2.95 | ✗ lost |
| Ciryl Gane wins by Submission in R2 or R3 | 4% | 26.00 | ✗ lost |
| Ciryl Gane wins by SUB | 8% | 12.00 | ✗ lost |
| Ciryl Gane wins by Submission in R1 | 3% | 34.00 | ✗ lost |
| Alex Pereira significant strikes over 89.5 | 23% | 4.33 | — |
| Alex Pereira significant strikes over 59.5 | 44% | 2.20 | — |
| Fight ends by Submission in R2 | 3% | 34.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight reaches Round 2 | 79% | 1.20 | ✓ won |
| Ciryl Gane wins by KO/TKO in R3 or R4 | 8% | 11.50 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 159.5 | 33% | 2.75 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 169.5 | 30% | 3.00 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 179.5 | 27% | 3.35 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 149.5 | 36% | 2.45 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 139.5 | 39% | 2.25 | — |
| Fight ends before decision | 61% | 1.45 | ✓ won |
| Total significant strikes over 129.5 | 42% | 2.07 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 79.5 | 62% | 1.42 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 89.5 | 57% | 1.52 | — |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1 | 18% | 4.80 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 189.5 | 23% | 3.75 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 99.5 | 53% | 1.64 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 119.5 | 46% | 1.89 | — |
| Alex Pereira wins by DEC | 12% | 7.25 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 109.5 | 49% | 1.76 | — |
| Fight ends by Submission | 9% | 9.25 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO | 51% | 1.66 | ✓ won |
| Ciryl Gane wins by finish in Round 3 | 6% | 15.00 | ✗ lost |
| Ciryl Gane wins by KO/TKO in R4 | 4% | 23.00 | ✗ lost |
| Ciryl Gane wins by KO/TKO in R3 | 4% | 19.00 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 199.5 | 19% | 4.25 | — |
| Ciryl Gane significant strikes over 59.5 | 45% | 1.83 | — |
| Alex Pereira wins by Sub or Decision | 13% | 6.25 | ✗ lost |
| Under 2.5 rounds | 45% | 1.72 | ✓ won |
| Total significant strikes over 209.5 | 16% | 4.90 | — |
| Ciryl Gane significant strikes over 69.5 | 37% | 2.00 | — |
| Fight ends by Submission in R1 | 3% | 23.00 | ✗ lost |
| Ciryl Gane wins by Submission in R3 or R4 | 2% | 31.00 | ✗ lost |
| Ciryl Gane wins by Submission in R4 | 1% | 67.00 | ✗ lost |
| Ciryl Gane significant strikes over 79.5 | 30% | 2.40 | — |
| Alex Pereira wins in R4+ or by Decision | 16% | 4.30 | ✗ lost |
| Alex Pereira wins | 37% | 1.88 | ✗ lost |
| Alex Pereira wins by KO or Decision | 36% | 1.93 | ✗ lost |
| Ciryl Gane significant strikes over 99.5 | 20% | 3.40 | — |
| Ciryl Gane significant strikes over 89.5 | 24% | 2.80 | — |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R4 | 7% | 9.75 | ✗ lost |
| Alex Pereira wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2 | 16% | 4.20 | ✗ lost |
| Alex Pereira wins by KO/TKO in R2 | 7% | 9.00 | ✗ lost |
| Ciryl Gane wins by Submission in R3 | 1% | 51.00 | ✗ lost |
| Ciryl Gane significant strikes over 109.5 | 16% | 4.00 | — |
| Ciryl Gane takedowns over 0.5 | 42% | 1.57 | — |
| Ciryl Gane wins by KO/TKO in R4 or R5 | 5% | 13.00 | ✗ lost |
| Total takedowns over 0.5 | 45% | 1.45 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 219.5 | 12% | 5.40 | — |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3 | 8% | 7.50 | ✗ lost |
| Alex Pereira wins by KO/TKO in R2, R3 or R4 | 14% | 4.20 | ✗ lost |
| Ciryl Gane wins by finish in Round 1 | 13% | 4.80 | ✗ lost |
| Alex Pereira wins by KO/TKO | 24% | 2.45 | ✗ lost |
| Alex Pereira wins by KO or Sub | 25% | 2.30 | ✗ lost |
| Alex Pereira wins by KO/TKO in R1 | 8% | 6.75 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by Submission in R4 | 1% | 46.00 | ✗ lost |
| Ciryl Gane significant strikes over 119.5 | 13% | 4.50 | — |
| Alex Pereira wins by finish in Round 1 | 9% | 6.25 | ✗ lost |
| Ciryl Gane wins by Submission in R4 or R5 | 1% | 34.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by Submission in R3 | 1% | 34.00 | ✗ lost |
| Ciryl Gane significant strikes over 129.5 | 9% | 5.50 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 229.5 | 8% | 6.00 | — |
| Total takedowns over 1.5 | 25% | 1.87 | — |
| Alex Pereira wins by KO/TKO in R4 | 3% | 14.00 | ✗ lost |
| Alex Pereira wins by KO/TKO in R3, R4 or R5 | 8% | 5.50 | ✗ lost |
| Total takedowns over 2.5 | 19% | 2.25 | — |
| Alex Pereira wins by KO/TKO in R3 | 4% | 10.50 | ✗ lost |
| Total takedowns over 3.5 | 12% | 2.80 | — |
| Ciryl Gane takedowns over 1.5 | 17% | 2.00 | — |
| Ciryl Gane significant strikes over 139.5 | 5% | 6.50 | — |
| Alex Pereira wins by Submission in R1 or R2 | 1% | 46.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R5 | 2% | 12.50 | ✗ lost |
| Ciryl Gane wins by KO/TKO in R5 | 1% | 23.00 | ✗ lost |
| Alex Pereira wins by Submission in R2, R3 or R4 | 1% | 46.00 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 239.5 | 4% | 6.75 | — |
| Alex Pereira wins by SUB | 1% | 26.00 | ✗ lost |
| Alex Pereira wins by finish in Round 1 | 9% | 3.00 | ✗ lost |
| Alex Pereira wins by KO/TKO in R5 | 1% | 21.00 | ✗ lost |
| Total takedowns over 4.5 | 6% | 3.80 | — |
| Ciryl Gane significant strikes over 149.5 | 1% | 8.00 | — |
| Total knockdowns over 0.5 | 2% | 1.38 | — |
▼
Model Prediction
Aiemann Zahabi
22%
KO 5%·
Sub 4%·
Dec 13%
Sean O'Malley
✓ won
78%
KO 29%·
Sub 4%·
Dec 44%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Sean O'Malley wins | 78% | 1.22 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Sean O'Malley wins by Decision | 44% | 2.15 | missed |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 57% | 2.20 | missed |
| Every SportsBet market | Model prob | Odds | Bet result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sean O'Malley takedowns over 0.5 | 23% | 5.50 | — |
| Sean O'Malley wins by Submission in R2 | 2% | 71.00 | ✗ lost |
| Aiemann Zahabi takedowns over 0.5 | 43% | 2.63 | — |
| Sean O'Malley wins by Submission in R1 or R2 | 4% | 29.00 | ✗ lost |
| Sean O'Malley takedowns over 1.5 | 10% | 11.00 | — |
| Fight ends by Submission | 8% | 13.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by Submission in R2 | 3% | 34.00 | ✗ lost |
| Sean O'Malley wins by SUB | 4% | 23.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by finish in Round 2 | 16% | 6.25 | ✓ won |
| Aiemann Zahabi significant strikes over 59.5 | 50% | 2.00 | — |
| Finish before Round 3 | 36% | 2.75 | ✓ won |
| Sean O'Malley wins by Sub or Decision | 49% | 2.03 | ✗ lost |
| Sean O'Malley wins by Submission in R2 or R3 | 2% | 41.00 | ✗ lost |
| Sean O'Malley wins by Decision | 44% | 2.20 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by Submission in R1 | 4% | 26.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight reaches Round 2 | 80% | 1.20 | ✓ won |
| Sean O'Malley wins by Submission in R1 | 2% | 46.00 | ✗ lost |
| Aiemann Zahabi significant strikes over 49.5 | 57% | 1.67 | — |
| Sean O'Malley wins | 78% | 1.22 | ✓ won |
| Sean O'Malley wins by DEC | 44% | 2.15 | ✗ lost |
| Over 2.5 rounds | 61% | 1.57 | ✗ lost |
| Aiemann Zahabi wins | 22% | 4.35 | ✗ lost |
| Aiemann Zahabi wins by Submission in R2 | 1% | 71.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends before decision | 43% | 2.20 | ✓ won |
| Aiemann Zahabi wins by KO or Sub | 9% | 10.50 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2 | 13% | 7.00 | ✓ won |
| Fight goes to decision | 57% | 1.62 | ✗ lost |
| Sean O'Malley wins by KO or Decision | 74% | 1.25 | ✓ won |
| Fight goes to Decision | 57% | 1.61 | ✗ lost |
| Aiemann Zahabi wins by Submission in R1 or R2 | 3% | 31.00 | ✗ lost |
| Aiemann Zahabi takedowns over 1.5 | 16% | 5.50 | — |
| Aiemann Zahabi significant strikes over 39.5 | 64% | 1.40 | — |
| Sean O'Malley wins by KO/TKO in R2 | 11% | 8.00 | ✓ won |
| Aiemann Zahabi significant strikes over 19.5 | 80% | 1.12 | — |
| Under 2.5 rounds | 39% | 2.25 | ✓ won |
| Sean O'Malley significant strikes over 19.5 | 82% | 1.07 | — |
| Sean O'Malley wins by KO or Sub | 34% | 2.60 | ✓ won |
| Aiemann Zahabi wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2 | 5% | 19.00 | ✗ lost |
| Aiemann Zahabi significant strikes over 29.5 | 71% | 1.22 | — |
| Aiemann Zahabi wins by KO or Decision | 18% | 4.70 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 49.5 | 77% | 1.12 | — |
| Sean O'Malley wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2 | 25% | 3.45 | ✓ won |
| Fight ends by finish in Round 1 | 20% | 4.30 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 129.5 | 48% | 1.79 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 119.5 | 52% | 1.63 | — |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO | 35% | 2.45 | ✓ won |
| Aiemann Zahabi wins by KO/TKO in R2 | 2% | 41.00 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 59.5 | 73% | 1.16 | — |
| Sean O'Malley significant strikes over 29.5 | 74% | 1.14 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 109.5 | 56% | 1.50 | — |
| Aiemann Zahabi wins by Sub or Decision | 16% | 5.10 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 69.5 | 69% | 1.20 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 79.5 | 66% | 1.26 | — |
| Aiemann Zahabi wins by Submission in R1 | 2% | 51.00 | ✗ lost |
| Sean O'Malley wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3 | 16% | 5.30 | ✓ won |
| Total significant strikes over 99.5 | 59% | 1.40 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 89.5 | 63% | 1.32 | — |
| Aiemann Zahabi significant strikes over 69.5 | 32% | 2.60 | — |
| Sean O'Malley wins by KO/TKO | 29% | 2.80 | ✓ won |
| Sean O'Malley significant strikes over 39.5 | 67% | 1.22 | — |
| Aiemann Zahabi wins by KO/TKO | 5% | 15.00 | ✗ lost |
| Sean O'Malley significant strikes over 49.5 | 60% | 1.36 | — |
| Aiemann Zahabi wins by SUB | 4% | 23.00 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 139.5 | 41% | 1.98 | — |
| Sean O'Malley significant strikes over 59.5 | 52% | 1.53 | — |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1 | 16% | 4.90 | ✗ lost |
| Aiemann Zahabi wins by KO/TKO in R1 | 3% | 31.00 | ✗ lost |
| Aiemann Zahabi wins by DEC | 13% | 6.00 | ✗ lost |
| Aiemann Zahabi wins in R3+ or by Decision | 14% | 5.50 | ✗ lost |
| Sean O'Malley significant strikes over 69.5 | 44% | 1.72 | — |
| Aiemann Zahabi wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3 | 3% | 26.00 | ✗ lost |
| Sean O'Malley significant strikes over 79.5 | 36% | 2.10 | — |
| Sean O'Malley wins by KO/TKO in R1 | 14% | 5.40 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 149.5 | 34% | 2.20 | — |
| Sean O'Malley wins by Submission in R3 | 1% | 101.00 | ✗ lost |
| Sean O'Malley significant strikes over 89.5 | 27% | 2.50 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 159.5 | 26% | 2.50 | — |
| Fight ends by Submission in R3 | 1% | 51.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by finish in Round 3 | 6% | 9.50 | ✗ lost |
| Sean O'Malley significant strikes over 99.5 | 19% | 3.10 | — |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3 | 5% | 10.50 | ✗ lost |
| Sean O'Malley wins by KO/TKO in R3 | 4% | 12.00 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 169.5 | 19% | 2.85 | — |
| Sean O'Malley significant strikes over 109.5 | 12% | 4.00 | — |
| Aiemann Zahabi wins by KO/TKO in R3 | 1% | 51.00 | ✗ lost |
| Aiemann Zahabi significant strikes over 79.5 | 12% | 3.30 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 179.5 | 11% | 3.35 | — |
| Sean O'Malley significant strikes over 119.5 | 5% | 5.00 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 189.5 | 3% | 3.90 | — |
| Total knockdowns over 0.5 | 2% | 1.83 | — |
▼
Model Prediction
Derrick Lewis
17%
KO 8%·
Sub 1%·
Dec 8%
Josh Hokit
✓ won
83%
KO 55%·
Sub 13%·
Dec 15%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Josh Hokit wins | 83% | 1.23 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Josh Hokit wins by KO/TKO | 55% | 1.77 | ✓ predicted |
| Finish round Finish in Round 1 | 43% | — | missed |
| Every SportsBet market | Model prob | Odds | Bet result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Lewis wins by DEC | 8% | 21.00 | ✗ lost |
| Derrick Lewis significant strikes over 49.5 | 26% | 5.50 | — |
| Fight goes to Decision | 23% | 6.25 | ✗ lost |
| Derrick Lewis significant strikes over 39.5 | 38% | 3.75 | — |
| Josh Hokit wins by DEC | 15% | 9.25 | ✗ lost |
| Josh Hokit wins in R3+ or by Decision value | 28% | 4.90 | ✗ lost |
| Derrick Lewis significant strikes over 59.5 | 16% | 8.50 | — |
| Fight goes to decision | 23% | 6.00 | ✗ lost |
| Derrick Lewis significant strikes over 29.5 | 49% | 2.75 | — |
| Fight reaches Round 3 | 34% | 3.70 | ✗ lost |
| Derrick Lewis wins by Sub or Decision | 9% | 14.00 | ✗ lost |
| Derrick Lewis takedowns over 0.5 | 23% | 5.00 | — |
| Derrick Lewis significant strikes over 19.5 | 61% | 1.83 | — |
| Under 2.5 rounds | 71% | 1.53 | ✓ won |
| Josh Hokit wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3 | 24% | 4.40 | ✓ won |
| Josh Hokit wins by KO or Decision | 70% | 1.52 | ✓ won |
| Josh Hokit significant strikes over 39.5 | 47% | 2.25 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 89.5 | 32% | 3.25 | — |
| Josh Hokit wins by Sub or Decision | 28% | 3.70 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 99.5 | 27% | 3.80 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 79.5 | 37% | 2.75 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 109.5 | 23% | 4.50 | — |
| Josh Hokit wins | 83% | 1.23 | ✓ won |
| Total significant strikes over 69.5 | 42% | 2.40 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 119.5 | 19% | 5.40 | — |
| Josh Hokit significant strikes over 29.5 | 58% | 1.72 | — |
| Josh Hokit wins by KO/TKO in R2 | 16% | 6.25 | ✓ won |
| Derrick Lewis wins by Decision | 8% | 13.00 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 59.5 | 47% | 2.08 | — |
| Josh Hokit wins by finish in Round 2 | 20% | 5.00 | ✓ won |
| Josh Hokit wins by KO/TKO | 55% | 1.77 | ✓ won |
| Total significant strikes over 49.5 | 53% | 1.79 | — |
| Josh Hokit wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2 | 46% | 2.03 | ✓ won |
| Josh Hokit significant strikes over 19.5 | 68% | 1.36 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 129.5 | 15% | 6.25 | — |
| Josh Hokit wins by KO or Sub | 67% | 1.36 | ✓ won |
| Josh Hokit wins by KO/TKO in R3 | 8% | 11.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2 | 18% | 4.90 | ✓ won |
| Fight ends before decision | 77% | 1.11 | ✓ won |
| Josh Hokit wins by KO/TKO in R1 | 30% | 2.80 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by finish in Round 3 | 12% | 7.25 | ✗ lost |
| Josh Hokit wins by finish in Round 1 | 38% | 2.25 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO | 63% | 1.33 | ✓ won |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3 | 10% | 8.75 | ✗ lost |
| Finish before Round 3 | 66% | 1.25 | ✓ won |
| Total significant strikes over 139.5 | 11% | 7.50 | — |
| Total takedowns over 0.5 | 59% | 1.32 | — |
| Josh Hokit takedowns over 0.5 | 54% | 1.40 | — |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1 | 35% | 2.12 | ✗ lost |
| Derrick Lewis wins | 17% | 4.25 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by Submission | 14% | 5.00 | ✗ lost |
| Josh Hokit wins by SUB | 13% | 5.50 | ✗ lost |
| Josh Hokit significant strikes over 49.5 | 24% | 2.88 | — |
| Derrick Lewis wins by KO or Decision | 16% | 4.30 | ✗ lost |
| Josh Hokit wins by Submission in R1 or R2 | 11% | 6.25 | ✗ lost |
| Over 2.5 rounds | 29% | 2.37 | ✗ lost |
| Josh Hokit wins by Submission in R2 | 4% | 18.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by Submission in R2 | 4% | 16.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by Submission in R3 | 2% | 29.00 | ✗ lost |
| Josh Hokit wins by Submission in R3 | 2% | 31.00 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 149.5 | 7% | 8.75 | — |
| Fight ends by Submission in R1 | 8% | 7.50 | ✗ lost |
| Josh Hokit wins by Submission in R1 | 7% | 8.25 | ✗ lost |
| Josh Hokit wins by finish in Round 1 | 38% | 1.57 | ✗ lost |
| Total takedowns over 1.5 | 34% | 1.73 | — |
| Derrick Lewis wins by Submission in R2 or R3 | 1% | 91.00 | ✗ lost |
| Josh Hokit significant strikes over 59.5 | 15% | 3.75 | — |
| Derrick Lewis wins by Submission in R1 or R2 | 1% | 41.00 | ✗ lost |
| Derrick Lewis wins by SUB | 1% | 34.00 | ✗ lost |
| Derrick Lewis wins by Submission in R1 | 1% | 61.00 | ✗ lost |
| Total takedowns over 2.5 | 21% | 2.20 | — |
| Derrick Lewis wins by KO or Sub | 10% | 4.60 | ✗ lost |
| Derrick Lewis wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3 | 4% | 11.50 | ✗ lost |
| Derrick Lewis wins by KO/TKO | 8% | 5.00 | ✗ lost |
| Total takedowns over 3.5 | 14% | 2.95 | — |
| Derrick Lewis wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2 | 7% | 5.70 | ✗ lost |
| Derrick Lewis wins by KO/TKO in R3 | 1% | 31.00 | ✗ lost |
| Derrick Lewis wins by KO/TKO in R2 | 2% | 16.00 | ✗ lost |
| Josh Hokit takedowns over 1.5 | 21% | 1.83 | — |
| Derrick Lewis wins by KO/TKO in R1 | 5% | 7.75 | ✗ lost |
| Total takedowns over 4.5 | 7% | 4.70 | — |
| Derrick Lewis takedowns over 1.5 | 3% | 11.00 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 159.5 | 3% | 10.50 | — |
| Josh Hokit significant strikes over 69.5 | 6% | 4.50 | — |
| Derrick Lewis wins by finish in Round 1 | 6% | 5.25 | ✗ lost |
| Josh Hokit takedowns over 2.5 | 10% | 2.40 | — |
| Total knockdowns over 0.5 | 2% | 1.22 | — |
▼
Model Prediction
Michael Chandler
15%
KO 5%·
Sub 2%·
Dec 8%
Mauricio Ruffy
✓ won
85%
KO 64%·
Sub 3%·
Dec 19%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Mauricio Ruffy wins | 85% | 1.18 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Mauricio Ruffy wins by KO/TKO | 64% | 1.48 | ✓ predicted |
| Finish round Finish in Round 1 | 43% | — | ✓ predicted |
| Every SportsBet market | Model prob | Odds | Bet result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mauricio Ruffy takedowns over 0.5 | 23% | 6.00 | — |
| Under 2.5 rounds | 69% | 1.83 | ✓ won |
| Fight goes to decision | 27% | 4.60 | ✗ lost |
| Mauricio Ruffy takedowns over 1.5 | 11% | 11.00 | — |
| Mauricio Ruffy wins by DEC | 19% | 6.50 | ✗ lost |
| Fight goes to Decision | 27% | 4.40 | ✗ lost |
| Mauricio Ruffy wins by Sub or Decision | 22% | 5.25 | ✗ lost |
| Michael Chandler significant strikes over 69.5 | 13% | 8.50 | — |
| Mauricio Ruffy wins by Decision | 19% | 6.00 | ✗ lost |
| Michael Chandler significant strikes over 59.5 | 19% | 6.00 | — |
| Mauricio Ruffy wins by finish in Round 1 | 39% | 2.75 | ✓ won |
| Michael Chandler significant strikes over 49.5 | 24% | 4.33 | — |
| Mauricio Ruffy wins by KO/TKO in R1 | 37% | 2.80 | ✓ won |
| Michael Chandler significant strikes over 39.5 | 35% | 3.00 | — |
| Mauricio Ruffy wins by KO or Decision | 83% | 1.23 | ✓ won |
| Mauricio Ruffy wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2 | 57% | 1.78 | ✓ won |
| Mauricio Ruffy wins | 85% | 1.18 | ✓ won |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1 | 40% | 2.50 | ✓ won |
| Michael Chandler wins by DEC | 8% | 12.00 | ✗ lost |
| Finish before Round 2 | 43% | 2.33 | ✓ won |
| Michael Chandler significant strikes over 29.5 | 46% | 2.10 | — |
| Michael Chandler significant strikes over 19.5 | 60% | 1.57 | — |
| Fight reaches Round 3 | 35% | 2.69 | ✗ lost |
| Mauricio Ruffy wins by KO/TKO | 64% | 1.48 | ✓ won |
| Mauricio Ruffy significant strikes over 29.5 | 58% | 1.62 | — |
| Mauricio Ruffy wins by KO or Sub | 67% | 1.39 | ✓ won |
| Mauricio Ruffy significant strikes over 19.5 | 70% | 1.30 | — |
| Michael Chandler takedowns over 0.5 | 61% | 1.45 | — |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO | 68% | 1.29 | ✓ won |
| Mauricio Ruffy wins by KO/TKO in R2 | 20% | 4.40 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 49.5 | 54% | 1.58 | — |
| Fight ends before decision | 73% | 1.17 | ✓ won |
| Total significant strikes over 89.5 | 31% | 2.70 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 99.5 | 26% | 3.20 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 69.5 | 41% | 2.03 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 79.5 | 36% | 2.30 | — |
| Mauricio Ruffy significant strikes over 39.5 | 42% | 2.00 | — |
| Michael Chandler wins by Decision | 8% | 10.00 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 59.5 | 46% | 1.79 | — |
| Total takedowns over 0.5 | 59% | 1.39 | — |
| Mauricio Ruffy wins by finish in Round 2 | 20% | 4.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2 | 21% | 3.90 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 109.5 | 21% | 3.75 | — |
| Michael Chandler wins by Sub or Decision | 10% | 7.75 | ✗ lost |
| Mauricio Ruffy wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3 | 26% | 2.90 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 119.5 | 17% | 4.50 | — |
| Michael Chandler wins by KO or Decision | 13% | 5.60 | ✗ lost |
| Michael Chandler wins | 15% | 4.90 | ✗ lost |
| Mauricio Ruffy wins by finish in Round 1 | 39% | 1.68 | ✓ won |
| Total takedowns over 1.5 | 36% | 1.79 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 129.5 | 12% | 5.40 | — |
| Mauricio Ruffy significant strikes over 49.5 | 23% | 2.63 | — |
| Mauricio Ruffy significant strikes over 59.5 | 18% | 3.40 | — |
| Over 2.5 rounds | 31% | 1.83 | ✗ lost |
| Mauricio Ruffy significant strikes over 69.5 | 12% | 4.50 | — |
| Mauricio Ruffy wins by Submission in R1 or R2 | 3% | 21.00 | ✗ lost |
| Mauricio Ruffy wins by Submission in R1 | 2% | 31.00 | ✗ lost |
| Mauricio Ruffy wins by SUB | 3% | 18.00 | ✗ lost |
| Mauricio Ruffy wins by KO/TKO in R3 | 7% | 7.50 | ✗ lost |
| Total takedowns over 2.5 | 22% | 2.20 | — |
| Fight ends by Submission in R1 | 3% | 18.00 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 139.5 | 7% | 6.50 | — |
| Michael Chandler takedowns over 1.5 | 24% | 1.91 | — |
| Michael Chandler wins by KO/TKO in R1 | 3% | 17.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3 | 7% | 6.25 | ✗ lost |
| Michael Chandler wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2 | 4% | 11.00 | ✗ lost |
| Mauricio Ruffy wins by Submission in R2 | 1% | 51.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by Submission | 4% | 9.75 | ✗ lost |
| Mauricio Ruffy wins by Submission in R2 or R3 | 1% | 34.00 | ✗ lost |
| Total takedowns over 3.5 | 14% | 2.80 | — |
| Michael Chandler wins by KO/TKO | 5% | 8.75 | ✗ lost |
| Mauricio Ruffy significant strikes over 79.5 | 6% | 6.00 | — |
| Michael Chandler wins by KO or Sub | 6% | 6.25 | ✗ lost |
| Michael Chandler wins by finish in Round 1 | 4% | 10.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by Submission in R2 | 1% | 26.00 | ✗ lost |
| Michael Chandler wins by Submission in R1 | 1% | 34.00 | ✗ lost |
| Michael Chandler wins by KO/TKO in R2 | 1% | 23.00 | ✗ lost |
| Michael Chandler wins by Submission in R1 or R2 | 1% | 21.00 | ✗ lost |
| Michael Chandler wins by finish in Round 1 | 4% | 8.00 | ✗ lost |
| Michael Chandler wins by SUB | 2% | 17.00 | ✗ lost |
| Michael Chandler takedowns over 2.5 | 11% | 2.37 | — |
| Total takedowns over 4.5 | 7% | 3.90 | — |
| Michael Chandler wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3 | 2% | 14.00 | ✗ lost |
| Michael Chandler wins by finish in Round 2 | 2% | 12.00 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 149.5 | 2% | 8.00 | — |
| Mauricio Ruffy significant strikes over 89.5 | 1% | 8.00 | — |
| Total knockdowns over 0.5 | 2% | 1.19 | — |
▼
Model Prediction
Kyle Daukaus
20%
KO 3%·
Sub 9%·
Dec 9%
Bo Nickal
✓ won
80%
KO 39%·
Sub 9%·
Dec 32%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Bo Nickal wins | 80% | 1.30 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Bo Nickal wins by KO/TKO | 39% | 3.10 | ✓ predicted |
| Finish round Finish in Round 1 | 28% | — | ✓ predicted |
| Every SportsBet market | Model prob | Odds | Bet result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Daukaus takedowns over 0.5 | 33% | 6.00 | — |
| Kyle Daukaus takedowns over 1.5 | 16% | 12.00 | — |
| Bo Nickal wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2 | 32% | 3.90 | ✓ won |
| Bo Nickal wins by KO/TKO | 39% | 3.10 | ✓ won |
| Bo Nickal wins by KO/TKO in R2 | 14% | 9.00 | ✗ lost |
| Bo Nickal wins by KO or Decision value | 71% | 1.71 | ✓ won |
| Bo Nickal wins by KO/TKO in R1 | 19% | 6.25 | ✓ won |
| Bo Nickal wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3 | 21% | 5.60 | ✗ lost |
| Bo Nickal wins by DEC | 32% | 3.50 | ✗ lost |
| Fight goes to decision | 40% | 2.72 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2 | 14% | 7.50 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO | 42% | 2.55 | ✓ won |
| Fight goes to Decision | 40% | 2.65 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1 | 20% | 5.20 | ✓ won |
| Bo Nickal wins in R3+ or by Decision | 41% | 2.55 | ✗ lost |
| Bo Nickal wins | 80% | 1.30 | ✓ won |
| Over 2.5 rounds | 46% | 2.25 | ✗ lost |
| Bo Nickal significant strikes over 19.5 | 73% | 1.36 | — |
| Fight reaches Round 3 | 51% | 1.93 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 49.5 | 60% | 1.61 | — |
| Bo Nickal wins by KO or Sub | 48% | 1.97 | ✓ won |
| Total significant strikes over 59.5 | 52% | 1.83 | — |
| Bo Nickal wins by finish in Round 2 | 17% | 5.50 | ✗ lost |
| Bo Nickal significant strikes over 29.5 | 52% | 1.72 | — |
| Finish before Round 3 | 49% | 1.81 | ✓ won |
| Total significant strikes over 69.5 | 42% | 2.10 | — |
| Kyle Daukaus wins by DEC | 9% | 10.00 | ✗ lost |
| Bo Nickal wins by finish in Round 1 | 23% | 3.75 | ✓ won |
| Bo Nickal wins by Sub or Decision | 40% | 2.12 | ✗ lost |
| Under 2.5 rounds | 54% | 1.57 | ✓ won |
| Fight ends before decision | 60% | 1.42 | ✓ won |
| Bo Nickal significant strikes over 39.5 | 38% | 2.25 | — |
| Bo Nickal wins by KO/TKO in R3 | 7% | 12.00 | ✗ lost |
| Kyle Daukaus wins by Decision | 9% | 9.50 | ✗ lost |
| Total takedowns over 0.5 | 70% | 1.15 | — |
| Kyle Daukaus significant strikes over 19.5 | 49% | 1.57 | — |
| Kyle Daukaus wins by Sub or Decision | 18% | 4.30 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 79.5 | 31% | 2.40 | — |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3 | 8% | 10.00 | ✗ lost |
| Kyle Daukaus significant strikes over 29.5 | 35% | 2.10 | — |
| Bo Nickal significant strikes over 59.5 | 19% | 3.75 | — |
| Kyle Daukaus wins | 20% | 3.52 | ✗ lost |
| Bo Nickal significant strikes over 49.5 | 24% | 2.88 | — |
| Total takedowns over 1.5 | 48% | 1.42 | — |
| Kyle Daukaus wins by KO or Decision | 11% | 6.00 | ✗ lost |
| Bo Nickal significant strikes over 69.5 | 14% | 5.00 | — |
| Kyle Daukaus significant strikes over 39.5 | 23% | 2.88 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 89.5 | 23% | 2.85 | — |
| Bo Nickal takedowns over 0.5 | 55% | 1.20 | — |
| Kyle Daukaus significant strikes over 49.5 | 15% | 4.00 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 99.5 | 18% | 3.35 | — |
| Kyle Daukaus wins by Submission in R1 or R2 | 7% | 8.00 | ✗ lost |
| Kyle Daukaus wins by Submission in R2 | 3% | 19.00 | ✗ lost |
| Kyle Daukaus wins by SUB | 9% | 6.50 | ✗ lost |
| Bo Nickal wins by finish in Round 1 | 23% | 2.50 | ✓ won |
| Kyle Daukaus wins by KO or Sub | 12% | 4.70 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 109.5 | 13% | 4.00 | — |
| Fight ends by Submission in R2 | 6% | 8.75 | ✗ lost |
| Bo Nickal significant strikes over 79.5 | 8% | 6.50 | — |
| Fight ends by Submission | 18% | 2.95 | ✗ lost |
| Kyle Daukaus wins by Submission in R1 | 4% | 12.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by Submission in R1 | 8% | 5.80 | ✗ lost |
| Total takedowns over 2.5 | 27% | 1.70 | — |
| Bo Nickal wins by Submission in R1 or R2 | 7% | 6.00 | ✗ lost |
| Kyle Daukaus significant strikes over 59.5 | 8% | 5.50 | — |
| Bo Nickal wins by SUB | 9% | 4.90 | ✗ lost |
| Kyle Daukaus wins by finish in Round 1 | 6% | 7.50 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 119.5 | 9% | 4.80 | — |
| Kyle Daukaus wins by Submission in R3 | 2% | 26.00 | ✗ lost |
| Kyle Daukaus wins by finish in Round 2 | 4% | 10.00 | ✗ lost |
| Bo Nickal wins by Submission in R2 | 3% | 13.00 | ✗ lost |
| Total takedowns over 3.5 | 18% | 2.10 | — |
| Bo Nickal wins by Submission in R2 or R3 | 5% | 8.50 | ✗ lost |
| Bo Nickal wins by Submission in R1 | 4% | 9.25 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by Submission in R3 | 3% | 11.50 | ✗ lost |
| Bo Nickal takedowns over 1.5 | 24% | 1.50 | — |
| Kyle Daukaus wins by KO/TKO | 3% | 12.00 | ✗ lost |
| Kyle Daukaus wins by finish in Round 1 | 6% | 5.75 | ✗ lost |
| Kyle Daukaus wins by KO/TKO in R2 | 1% | 34.00 | ✗ lost |
| Kyle Daukaus wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2 | 2% | 14.00 | ✗ lost |
| Total takedowns over 4.5 | 11% | 2.75 | — |
| Kyle Daukaus wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3 | 1% | 21.00 | ✗ lost |
| Bo Nickal wins by Submission in R3 | 2% | 18.00 | ✗ lost |
| Kyle Daukaus wins by KO/TKO in R1 | 1% | 21.00 | ✗ lost |
| Bo Nickal takedowns over 2.5 | 15% | 1.72 | — |
| Bo Nickal significant strikes over 89.5 | 3% | 9.00 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 129.5 | 4% | 5.75 | — |
| Total takedowns over 5.5 | 4% | 3.45 | — |
| Bo Nickal takedowns over 3.5 | 6% | 2.20 | — |
| Total knockdowns over 0.5 | 2% | 1.73 | — |
▼
Model Prediction
Steve Garcia
57%
KO 27%·
Sub 3%·
Dec 27%
Diego Lopes
✓ won
43%
KO 13%·
Sub 10%·
Dec 20%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Steve Garcia wins value | 57% | 2.29 | missed |
| Method Steve Garcia wins by Decision value | 27% | 5.50 | missed |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 47% | 2.83 | missed |
| Every SportsBet market | Model prob | Odds | Bet result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Garcia significant strikes over 89.5 | 24% | 8.00 | — |
| Steve Garcia significant strikes over 79.5 | 34% | 5.50 | — |
| Steve Garcia significant strikes over 69.5 | 43% | 4.20 | — |
| Steve Garcia significant strikes over 59.5 | 51% | 3.10 | — |
| Steve Garcia wins by DEC value | 27% | 5.50 | ✗ lost |
| Steve Garcia wins by Sub or Decision value | 30% | 5.00 | ✗ lost |
| Steve Garcia wins in R3+ or by Decision value | 32% | 4.25 | ✗ lost |
| Steve Garcia significant strikes over 49.5 | 58% | 2.37 | — |
| Fight goes to decision | 47% | 2.83 | ✗ lost |
| Steve Garcia wins value | 57% | 2.29 | ✗ lost |
| Fight goes to Decision | 47% | 2.75 | ✗ lost |
| Steve Garcia wins by KO or Decision value | 54% | 2.30 | ✗ lost |
| Steve Garcia significant strikes over 39.5 | 65% | 1.83 | — |
| Steve Garcia wins by KO/TKO in R2 | 11% | 10.50 | ✗ lost |
| Steve Garcia wins by finish in Round 2 | 12% | 9.50 | ✗ lost |
| Fight reaches Round 3 | 57% | 2.00 | ✗ lost |
| Steve Garcia takedowns over 0.5 | 32% | 3.50 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 99.5 | 49% | 2.30 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 89.5 | 54% | 2.02 | — |
| Steve Garcia significant strikes over 29.5 | 71% | 1.53 | — |
| Steve Garcia wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2 | 23% | 4.75 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 109.5 | 42% | 2.60 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 79.5 | 59% | 1.82 | — |
| Steve Garcia wins by Submission in R2 | 1% | 101.00 | ✗ lost |
| Steve Garcia wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3 | 15% | 7.00 | ✗ lost |
| Diego Lopes wins by DEC | 20% | 5.30 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 69.5 | 64% | 1.64 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 119.5 | 34% | 3.05 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 59.5 | 70% | 1.50 | — |
| Steve Garcia wins by KO or Sub | 30% | 3.50 | ✗ lost |
| Under 2.5 rounds | 47% | 2.20 | ✓ won |
| Steve Garcia wins by KO/TKO | 27% | 3.80 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 49.5 | 75% | 1.37 | — |
| Steve Garcia significant strikes over 19.5 | 80% | 1.28 | — |
| Diego Lopes significant strikes over 29.5 | 66% | 1.53 | — |
| Diego Lopes significant strikes over 39.5 | 55% | 1.83 | — |
| Diego Lopes wins by Decision | 20% | 5.00 | ✗ lost |
| Diego Lopes significant strikes over 19.5 | 77% | 1.28 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 129.5 | 27% | 3.60 | — |
| Diego Lopes significant strikes over 49.5 | 42% | 2.30 | — |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2 | 16% | 5.75 | ✓ won |
| Total significant strikes over 139.5 | 22% | 4.30 | — |
| Steve Garcia wins by Submission in R1 or R2 | 2% | 41.00 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 149.5 | 17% | 5.10 | — |
| Steve Garcia wins by SUB | 3% | 34.00 | ✗ lost |
| Over 2.5 rounds | 53% | 1.61 | ✗ lost |
| Steve Garcia wins by KO/TKO in R1 | 12% | 7.25 | ✗ lost |
| Diego Lopes significant strikes over 59.5 | 27% | 3.10 | — |
| Steve Garcia takedowns over 1.5 | 12% | 7.00 | — |
| Diego Lopes takedowns over 0.5 | 55% | 1.50 | — |
| Diego Lopes wins by Sub or Decision | 30% | 2.75 | ✗ lost |
| Total takedowns over 0.5 | 62% | 1.32 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 159.5 | 13% | 6.25 | — |
| Finish before Round 3 | 44% | 1.75 | ✓ won |
| Steve Garcia wins by finish in Round 1 | 13% | 6.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO | 40% | 1.91 | ✓ won |
| Steve Garcia wins by Submission in R1 | 1% | 67.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends before decision | 53% | 1.40 | ✓ won |
| Diego Lopes wins by KO or Decision | 33% | 2.20 | ✓ won |
| Diego Lopes wins | 43% | 1.63 | ✓ won |
| Total takedowns over 1.5 | 40% | 1.72 | — |
| Fight ends by Submission in R2 | 5% | 13.00 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 169.5 | 9% | 7.75 | — |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1 | 17% | 3.75 | ✗ lost |
| Steve Garcia wins by KO/TKO in R3 | 4% | 15.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by Submission | 13% | 4.75 | ✗ lost |
| Diego Lopes wins by Submission in R2 | 4% | 14.00 | ✗ lost |
| Steve Garcia wins by finish in Round 1 | 13% | 4.40 | ✗ lost |
| Diego Lopes wins by Submission in R1 or R2 | 9% | 6.25 | ✗ lost |
| Diego Lopes wins by KO/TKO in R2 | 5% | 10.00 | ✓ won |
| Diego Lopes wins by Submission in R2 or R3 | 6% | 9.25 | ✗ lost |
| Diego Lopes wins by SUB | 10% | 5.20 | ✗ lost |
| Diego Lopes takedowns over 1.5 | 27% | 1.91 | — |
| Total takedowns over 2.5 | 23% | 2.20 | — |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3 | 6% | 8.25 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by finish in Round 3 | 8% | 6.25 | ✗ lost |
| Diego Lopes wins by KO or Sub | 23% | 2.20 | ✓ won |
| Fight ends by Submission in R1 | 5% | 8.75 | ✗ lost |
| Diego Lopes wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2 | 11% | 4.40 | ✓ won |
| Diego Lopes wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3 | 7% | 6.50 | ✓ won |
| Diego Lopes wins by KO/TKO | 13% | 3.50 | ✓ won |
| Diego Lopes wins by Submission in R1 | 4% | 9.75 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 179.5 | 4% | 9.75 | — |
| Total takedowns over 3.5 | 14% | 2.85 | — |
| Fight ends by Submission in R3 | 2% | 19.00 | ✗ lost |
| Diego Lopes wins by KO/TKO in R1 | 6% | 6.75 | ✗ lost |
| Diego Lopes wins by Submission in R3 | 2% | 21.00 | ✗ lost |
| Diego Lopes significant strikes over 69.5 | 7% | 4.33 | — |
| Diego Lopes wins by KO/TKO in R3 | 2% | 14.00 | ✗ lost |
| Diego Lopes wins by finish in Round 1 | 10% | 2.70 | ✗ lost |
| Total takedowns over 4.5 | 6% | 4.10 | — |
| Diego Lopes takedowns over 2.5 | 5% | 2.50 | — |
| Total knockdowns over 0.5 | 2% | 1.36 | — |