UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal — Results & Recap

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⟁ Past Events — Predictions vs. Actual Results

101 / 136

Correct Picks

74.3% accuracy · 12 events

−$260

Parlay P&L

$33 / parlay (2·3·4-leg) · 2-10 · 12 parlays

−$452

Running P&L · opening

$1000 / event · Conservative · Kelly-weighted · closing: +$369

46 of 53 confident picks landed — when the model gives a fighter 70%+ it has been right 87% of the time

10–16 betting record with the same amount on every recommended bet (-8.1 units — early days, small sample)

Bankroll curve $1000 per event · Conservative tier · opening odds −$452

2026-06-15 peak $126 · trough $-495 2026-08-01

UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez 2026-08-01 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · −$56

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Mateusz Rebecki wins	Kyle Prepolec vs Mateusz Rebecki	1.18	$80	✓ won +$14
Oban Elliott wins	Oban Elliott vs Michael Oliveira	3.57	$80	✗ lost −$80
Bogdan Grad wins	Dennis Buzukja vs Bogdan Grad	1.52	$62	✓ won +$32
Fight goes to Decision	Daniel Rodriguez vs Uros Medic	7.25	$22	✗ lost −$22

UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov 2026-07-25 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · −$102

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Nurullo Aliev wins	Mike Davis vs Nurullo Aliev	1.54	$80	✓ won +$43
Tyrell Fortune wins	Rizvan Kuniev vs Tyrell Fortune	3.34	$80	✗ lost −$80
Damian Rzepecki wins	Magomed Zaynukov vs Damian Rzepecki	3.73	$43	✗ lost −$43
Dustin Jacoby wins	Dustin Jacoby vs Muhammad Said	1.59	$23	✗ lost −$23

UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman 2026-07-18 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · +$38

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Chase Hooper wins	Chase Hooper vs Mitch Ramirez	1.27	$80	✓ won +$22
Christian Leroy Duncan wins	Jared Cannonier vs Christian Leroy Duncan	1.32	$80	✓ won +$26
Dricus Du Plessis wins by SUB	Kamaru Usman vs Dricus Du Plessis	9.25	$55	✗ lost −$55
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani wins	Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs Seokhyeon Ko	2.66	$28	✓ won +$46

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 2026-07-11 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly · −$200

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Elisha Ellison wins	Gable Steveson vs Elisha Ellison	10.00	$138	✗ lost −$138
Benoit Saint Denis wins	Paddy Pimblett vs Benoit Saint Denis	1.53	$62	✗ lost −$62

UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres 2026-06-27 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly · −$216

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Manuel Torres wins	Rafael Fiziev vs Manuel Torres	1.96	$115	✗ lost −$115
Eric Nolan wins by Sub or Decision	Eric Nolan vs Farman Hasanov	5.30	$70	✗ lost −$70
Matheus Camilo wins	Nazim Sadykhov vs Matheus Camilo	2.99	$48	✓ won +$95
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	Julius Walker vs Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev	3.92	$44	✗ lost −$44
Fight reaches Round 2	Julius Walker vs Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev	2.17	$44	✗ lost −$44
Michel Pereira wins	Michel Pereira vs Shara Magomedov	3.82	$37	✗ lost −$37

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi 2 2026-06-20 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly · +$109

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Luana Santos wins	Karol Rosa vs Luana Santos	1.97	$157	✓ won +$152
Kyoji Horiguchi wins by KO/TKO	Kyoji Horiguchi vs Manel Kape	11.50	$43	✗ lost −$43

UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje 2026-06-15 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly · −$26

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Josh Hokit wins by KO or Decision	Derrick Lewis vs Josh Hokit	1.78	$73	✓ won +$57
Ilia Topuria wins by DEC	Justin Gaethje vs Ilia Topuria	13.00	$57	✗ lost −$57
Steve Garcia wins	Steve Garcia vs Diego Lopes	2.48	$52	✗ lost −$52
Bo Nickal wins by KO or Decision	Kyle Daukaus vs Bo Nickal	1.71	$38	✓ won +$27

UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez 2026-08-01 · $33/parlay · +$37

2-leg parlay @ 1.79 · $33 stake ✓ WON +$26

3-leg parlay @ 2.31 · $33 stake ✓ WON +$43

4-leg parlay @ 5.28 · $33 stake ✗ LOST −$33

UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov 2026-07-25 · $33/parlay · −$99

2-leg parlay @ 2.45 · $33 stake ✗ LOST −$33

3-leg parlay @ 4.82 · $33 stake ✗ LOST −$33

4-leg parlay @ 7.24 · $33 stake ✗ LOST −$33

UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman 2026-07-18 · $33/parlay · −$99

2-leg parlay @ 2.24 · $33 stake ✗ LOST −$33

3-leg parlay @ 4.22 · $33 stake ✗ LOST −$33

4-leg parlay @ 5.36 · $33 stake ✗ LOST −$33

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 2026-07-11 · $33/parlay · −$99

2-leg parlay @ 1.99 · $33 stake ✗ LOST −$33

3-leg parlay @ 3.02 · $33 stake ✗ LOST −$33

4-leg parlay @ 4.74 · $33 stake ✗ LOST −$33

UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal 7/13 · 54%

2026-04-25

Aljamain Sterling

25-5-0

Winner

Aljamain Sterling

Decision (U) · R5

✓ predicted

Youssef Zalal

18-5-1

▼

Model Prediction

Aljamain Sterling ✓ won 51%

KO 10%· Sub 8%· Dec 31%

Youssef Zalal 49%

KO 10%· Sub 13%· Dec 27%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Aljamain Sterling wins	51%	2.10	✓ predicted
Method Aljamain Sterling wins by Decision	31%	3.60	✓ predicted
Finish round Goes the distance	58%	2.24	✓ predicted

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	65%	3.14	✓ won
Youssef Zalal wins by SUB	13%	12.50	✗ lost
Aljamain Sterling wins by KO/TKO	10%	16.00	✗ lost
Finish before Round 3	35%	4.25	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 1	20%	7.25	✗ lost
Aljamain Sterling wins by KO or Decision value	41%	3.10	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	14%	8.00	✗ lost
Aljamain Sterling wins by DEC	31%	3.60	✓ won
Aljamain Sterling wins	51%	2.10	✓ won
Youssef Zalal wins by Sub or Decision	41%	2.40	✗ lost
Youssef Zalal wins by KO or Sub	24%	4.00	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	42%	2.24	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	62%	1.53	✓ won
Fight goes to decision	58%	1.60	✓ won
Fight goes to Decision	58%	1.59	✓ won
Under 2.5 rounds	38%	2.37	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	22%	4.10	✗ lost
Aljamain Sterling wins by Sub or Decision	39%	2.25	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO	20%	4.30	✗ lost
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	65%	1.33	✓ won
Aljamain Sterling wins in R4+ or by Decision	30%	2.95	✓ won
Fight reaches Round 2	80%	1.08	✓ won
Youssef Zalal wins	49%	1.74	✗ lost
Aljamain Sterling wins by KO or Sub	18%	4.40	✗ lost
Youssef Zalal wins by DEC	27%	2.80	✗ lost
Youssef Zalal wins by finish in Round 3	4%	17.00	✗ lost
Youssef Zalal wins by KO or Decision	38%	1.91	✗ lost
Youssef Zalal wins in R4+ or by Decision	28%	2.35	✗ lost
Youssef Zalal wins by KO/TKO	10%	5.40	✗ lost
Aljamain Sterling wins by SUB	8%	5.60	✗ lost

Sedriques Dumas

10-5-0

Winner

Jackson McVey

SUB · R1

✗ wrong

Jackson McVey

7-2-0

▼

Model Prediction

Sedriques Dumas 54%

KO 9%· Sub 17%· Dec 20%

Jackson McVey ✓ won 46%

KO 28%· Sub 7%· Dec 20%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Sedriques Dumas wins value	54%	2.57	missed
Method Sedriques Dumas wins by Decision value	20%	9.50	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	40%	4.80	missed

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Fight goes to Decision	40%	4.90	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	40%	4.80	✗ lost
Sedriques Dumas wins by DEC value	20%	9.50	✗ lost
Jackson McVey wins by DEC value	20%	9.25	✗ lost
Sedriques Dumas wins by Decision value	20%	8.50	✗ lost
Jackson McVey wins by Decision value	20%	8.50	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 3	47%	3.31	✗ lost
Sedriques Dumas wins by Sub or Decision value	37%	3.90	✗ lost
Sedriques Dumas wins value	54%	2.57	✗ lost
Jackson McVey wins by KO or Decision value	48%	2.55	✗ lost
Sedriques Dumas wins by KO or Decision	29%	3.90	✗ lost
Sedriques Dumas wins by SUB	17%	6.00	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	43%	2.25	✗ lost
Jackson McVey wins by KO/TKO	28%	3.35	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	57%	1.57	✓ won
Sedriques Dumas wins by KO or Sub	25%	3.20	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	37%	2.20	✗ lost
Sedriques Dumas wins by finish in Round 1	14%	5.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	20%	3.60	✗ lost
Jackson McVey wins	46%	1.51	✓ won
Fight ends before decision	60%	1.16	✓ won
Finish before Round 3	53%	1.30	✓ won
Jackson McVey wins by Sub or Decision	27%	2.55	✓ won
Jackson McVey wins by KO or Sub	34%	1.72	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	7%	8.00	✗ lost
Sedriques Dumas wins by KO/TKO	9%	6.00	✗ lost
Sedriques Dumas wins by finish in Round 1	14%	3.70	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	23%	2.20	✓ won
Jackson McVey wins by finish in Round 1	19%	1.94	✓ won
Jackson McVey wins by SUB	7%	3.35	✓ won

Ryan Spann

24-11-0

Winner

Ryan Spann

KO/TKO · R2

✓ predicted

Marcus Buchecha

5-3-1

▼

Model Prediction

Ryan Spann ✓ won 62%

KO 15%· Sub 22%· Dec 21%

Marcus Buchecha 38%

KO 11%· Sub 7%· Dec 24%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Ryan Spann wins value	62%	2.23	✓ predicted
Method Ryan Spann wins by Submission value	22%	8.75	missed
Finish round Finish in Round 1	27%	—	missed

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Ryan Spann wins by DEC value	21%	12.00	✗ lost
Ryan Spann wins in R3+ or by Decision value	33%	7.50	✗ lost
Ryan Spann wins by Sub or Decision value	43%	5.60	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	45%	4.80	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	45%	4.65	✗ lost
Ryan Spann wins by SUB value	22%	8.75	✗ lost
Marcus Buchecha wins by DEC value	24%	7.50	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 3	53%	3.27	✗ lost
Marcus Buchecha wins by Decision value	24%	7.00	✗ lost
Ryan Spann wins value	62%	2.23	✓ won
Marcus Buchecha wins by KO or Decision	35%	3.60	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	49%	2.25	✗ lost
Ryan Spann wins by finish in Round 2	13%	7.50	✓ won
Ryan Spann wins by KO or Decision	36%	2.75	✓ won
Ryan Spann wins by KO or Sub	37%	2.55	✓ won
Under 2.5 rounds	51%	1.57	✓ won
Ryan Spann wins by finish in Round 1	18%	4.00	✗ lost
Marcus Buchecha wins by KO/TKO	11%	6.00	✗ lost
Marcus Buchecha wins by Sub or Decision	31%	2.12	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	55%	1.17	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission	29%	2.20	✗ lost
Marcus Buchecha wins	38%	1.66	✗ lost
Finish before Round 3	47%	1.31	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	8%	7.75	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	26%	2.25	✓ won
Ryan Spann wins by finish in Round 1	18%	2.90	✗ lost
Ryan Spann wins by KO/TKO	15%	3.35	✓ won
Marcus Buchecha wins by KO or Sub	18%	2.00	✗ lost
Marcus Buchecha wins by finish in Round 1	9%	2.25	✗ lost
Marcus Buchecha wins by SUB	7%	2.80	✗ lost

Raoni Barcelos

21-5-0

Winner

Raoni Barcelos

Decision (S) · R3

✓ predicted

Montel Jackson

15-3-0

▼

Model Prediction

Raoni Barcelos ✓ won 57%

KO 10%· Sub 11%· Dec 34%

Montel Jackson 43%

KO 11%· Sub 10%· Dec 25%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Raoni Barcelos wins value	57%	2.46	✓ predicted
Method Raoni Barcelos wins by Decision	34%	3.60	✓ predicted
Finish round Goes the distance	59%	1.65	✓ predicted

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Raoni Barcelos wins by KO/TKO	10%	14.00	✗ lost
Raoni Barcelos wins value	57%	2.46	✓ won
Raoni Barcelos wins by KO or Decision value	44%	3.05	✓ won
Raoni Barcelos wins by KO or Sub	21%	6.25	✗ lost
Raoni Barcelos wins in R3+ or by Decision	38%	3.25	✓ won
Raoni Barcelos wins by Sub or Decision value	44%	2.75	✓ won
Raoni Barcelos wins by DEC	34%	3.60	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission	20%	5.70	✗ lost
Montel Jackson wins by SUB	10%	11.50	✗ lost
Raoni Barcelos wins by finish in Round 1	10%	10.00	✗ lost
Raoni Barcelos wins by SUB	11%	9.25	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	59%	1.65	✓ won
Fight goes to Decision	59%	1.64	✓ won
Finish before Round 3	34%	2.81	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	63%	1.50	✓ won
Fight reaches Round 2	80%	1.17	✓ won
Under 2.5 rounds	37%	2.50	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	41%	2.15	✗ lost
Montel Jackson wins by Sub or Decision	35%	2.40	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	14%	5.80	✗ lost
Raoni Barcelos wins by finish in Round 1	10%	7.75	✗ lost
Montel Jackson wins by DEC	25%	2.95	✗ lost
Montel Jackson wins by Decision	25%	2.87	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	21%	3.20	✗ lost
Montel Jackson wins	43%	1.55	✗ lost
Montel Jackson wins by KO or Decision	36%	1.72	✗ lost
Montel Jackson wins by KO or Sub	20%	3.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	7%	8.00	✗ lost
Montel Jackson wins by KO/TKO	11%	3.80	✗ lost
Montel Jackson wins by finish in Round 1	10%	3.90	✗ lost

Mayra Bueno Silva

10-7-1

Winner

Michelle Montague

Decision (U) · R3

✗ wrong

Michelle Montague

8-0-0

▼

Model Prediction

Mayra Bueno Silva 51%

KO 9%· Sub 10%· Dec 21%

Michelle Montague ✓ won 49%

KO 10%· Sub 6%· Dec 43%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Mayra Bueno Silva wins value	51%	4.10	missed
Method Mayra Bueno Silva wins by Decision	21%	5.70	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	65%	1.56	✓ predicted

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Mayra Bueno Silva wins by KO/TKO	9%	29.00	✗ lost
Mayra Bueno Silva wins value	51%	4.10	✗ lost
Mayra Bueno Silva wins by KO or Sub value	19%	10.00	✗ lost
Mayra Bueno Silva wins in R3+ or by Decision value	37%	5.10	✗ lost
Mayra Bueno Silva wins by KO or Decision value	31%	5.00	✗ lost
Mayra Bueno Silva wins by Sub or Decision value	31%	4.30	✗ lost
Mayra Bueno Silva wins by SUB	10%	13.00	✗ lost
Mayra Bueno Silva wins by DEC	21%	5.70	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	19%	6.00	✗ lost
Mayra Bueno Silva wins by finish in Round 1	9%	13.00	✗ lost
Mayra Bueno Silva wins by finish in Round 2	7%	15.00	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	65%	1.56	✓ won
Fight goes to Decision	65%	1.55	✓ won
Over 2.5 rounds	68%	1.44	✓ won
Fight reaches Round 2	84%	1.14	✓ won
Michelle Montague wins by DEC	43%	2.10	✓ won
Finish before Round 3	29%	3.07	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	32%	2.62	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	35%	2.33	✗ lost
Michelle Montague wins by Sub or Decision	49%	1.44	✓ won
Michelle Montague wins by KO/TKO	10%	7.00	✗ lost
Michelle Montague wins in R3+ or by Decision	35%	1.80	✓ won
Michelle Montague wins	49%	1.24	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission	16%	3.40	✗ lost
Michelle Montague wins by KO or Sub	16%	2.80	✗ lost
Michelle Montague wins by finish in Round 1	7%	6.00	✗ lost
Michelle Montague wins by finish in Round 2	6%	7.00	✗ lost
Michelle Montague wins by SUB	6%	4.25	✗ lost
Michelle Montague wins by finish in Round 1	7%	3.60	✗ lost

Max Griffin

20-13-0

Winner

Victor Valenzuela

Decision (U) · R3

✗ wrong

Victor Valenzuela

0-0-0

▼

Model Prediction

Max Griffin 62%

KO 21%· Sub 10%· Dec 37%

Victor Valenzuela ✓ won 38%

KO 11%· Sub 8%· Dec 14%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Max Griffin wins value	62%	2.17	missed
Method Max Griffin wins by Decision	37%	3.45	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	50%	2.16	✓ predicted

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Max Griffin wins by SUB	10%	26.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission value	18%	12.00	✗ lost
Max Griffin wins by finish in Round 1 value	22%	9.50	✗ lost
Finish before Round 2	37%	4.65	✗ lost
Victor Valenzuela wins by SUB	8%	19.00	✗ lost
Max Griffin wins by KO or Sub value	31%	5.00	✗ lost
Max Griffin wins by finish in Round 1	22%	6.50	✗ lost
Max Griffin wins by Sub or Decision value	46%	3.15	✗ lost
Max Griffin wins value	62%	2.17	✗ lost
Max Griffin wins by KO or Decision value	57%	2.25	✗ lost
Max Griffin wins by DEC	37%	3.45	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	50%	2.50	✗ lost
Max Griffin wins by KO/TKO	21%	5.80	✗ lost
Max Griffin wins by Decision	37%	3.25	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	50%	2.16	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	50%	1.65	✓ won
Fight goes to Decision	50%	1.63	✓ won
Max Griffin wins by finish in Round 2	8%	10.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	32%	2.45	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	50%	1.50	✓ won
Fight reaches Round 2	63%	1.17	✓ won
Victor Valenzuela wins by KO or Sub	19%	3.45	✗ lost
Victor Valenzuela wins	38%	1.69	✓ won
Victor Valenzuela wins by finish in Round 1	14%	4.40	✗ lost
Victor Valenzuela wins by Sub or Decision	22%	2.70	✓ won
Victor Valenzuela wins in R3+ or by Decision	19%	2.55	✓ won
Victor Valenzuela wins by KO/TKO	11%	4.00	✗ lost
Victor Valenzuela wins by KO or Decision	25%	1.78	✓ won
Victor Valenzuela wins by DEC	14%	3.05	✓ won

Lucas Brennan

11-3-0

Winner

Francis Marshall

Decision (U) · R3

✓ predicted

Francis Marshall

10-3-0

▼

Model Prediction

Lucas Brennan 47%

KO 14%· Sub 9%· Dec 19%

Francis Marshall ✓ won 53%

KO 13%· Sub 20%· Dec 25%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Francis Marshall wins	53%	1.16	✓ predicted
Method Francis Marshall wins by Decision	25%	2.60	✓ predicted
Finish round Goes the distance	44%	1.66	✓ predicted

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Lucas Brennan wins by KO/TKO value	14%	23.00	✗ lost
Lucas Brennan wins by KO or Decision value	33%	7.50	✗ lost
Lucas Brennan wins value	47%	5.30	✗ lost
Lucas Brennan wins in R3+ or by Decision value	24%	8.25	✗ lost
Lucas Brennan wins by KO or Sub value	23%	8.25	✗ lost
Lucas Brennan wins by DEC value	19%	10.00	✗ lost
Lucas Brennan wins by Sub or Decision value	27%	5.80	✗ lost
Lucas Brennan wins by finish in Round 1	12%	11.00	✗ lost
Lucas Brennan wins by finish in Round 1	12%	10.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	28%	4.00	✗ lost
Finish before Round 2	30%	3.32	✗ lost
Lucas Brennan wins by finish in Round 2	8%	13.00	✗ lost
Lucas Brennan wins by SUB	9%	11.00	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	56%	1.66	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	44%	2.13	✓ won
Fight goes to Decision	44%	2.10	✓ won
Fight reaches Round 2	70%	1.30	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission	29%	2.65	✗ lost
Francis Marshall wins by Sub or Decision	45%	1.50	✓ won
Francis Marshall wins by SUB	20%	3.35	✗ lost
Francis Marshall wins by KO or Sub	33%	1.99	✗ lost
Francis Marshall wins by Decision	25%	2.62	✓ won
Francis Marshall wins by KO or Decision	38%	1.71	✓ won
Francis Marshall wins by DEC	25%	2.60	✓ won
Francis Marshall wins	53%	1.16	✓ won
Francis Marshall wins by KO/TKO	13%	4.50	✗ lost
Francis Marshall wins by finish in Round 1	18%	2.35	✗ lost

Julia Polastri

14-6-0

Winner

Talita Alencar

Decision (U) · R3

✗ wrong

Talita Alencar

8-1-1

▼

Model Prediction

Julia Polastri 57%

KO 14%· Sub 9%· Dec 31%

Talita Alencar ✓ won 43%

KO 3%· Sub 8%· Dec 35%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Julia Polastri wins	57%	1.35	missed
Method Julia Polastri wins by Decision	31%	1.98	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	66%	2.92	✓ predicted

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Julia Polastri wins by SUB	9%	19.00	✗ lost
Talita Alencar wins by Decision value	35%	4.50	✓ won
Talita Alencar wins by KO or Decision value	38%	4.00	✓ won
Talita Alencar wins by DEC value	35%	4.30	✓ won
Talita Alencar wins by Sub or Decision value	43%	3.30	✓ won
Talita Alencar wins value	43%	3.21	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission	16%	7.75	✗ lost
Finish before Round 3	26%	4.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 1	14%	7.00	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	34%	2.92	✗ lost
Talita Alencar wins by KO/TKO	3%	31.00	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	30%	3.20	✗ lost
Talita Alencar wins by KO or Sub	11%	8.75	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 2	86%	1.08	✓ won
Over 2.5 rounds	70%	1.30	✓ won
Fight goes to decision	66%	1.37	✓ won
Fight goes to Decision	66%	1.36	✓ won
Julia Polastri wins by KO or Sub	23%	3.90	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	11%	7.50	✗ lost
Talita Alencar wins by SUB	8%	11.00	✗ lost
Julia Polastri wins	57%	1.35	✗ lost
Julia Polastri wins in R3+ or by Decision	43%	1.73	✗ lost
Julia Polastri wins by Sub or Decision	40%	1.84	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	17%	4.10	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	8%	8.50	✗ lost
Julia Polastri wins by KO/TKO	14%	4.50	✗ lost
Julia Polastri wins by KO or Decision	45%	1.41	✗ lost
Julia Polastri wins by DEC	31%	1.98	✗ lost

Joselyne Edwards

17-6-0

Winner

Joselyne Edwards

Decision (U) · R3

✓ predicted

Norma Dumont

13-2-0

▼

Model Prediction

Joselyne Edwards ✓ won 52%

KO 10%· Sub 8%· Dec 37%

Norma Dumont 48%

KO 9%· Sub 3%· Dec 33%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Joselyne Edwards wins value	52%	2.93	✓ predicted
Method Joselyne Edwards wins by Decision value	37%	4.25	✓ predicted
Finish round Goes the distance	70%	4.00	✓ predicted

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Joselyne Edwards wins by KO or Decision value	46%	3.45	✓ won
Joselyne Edwards wins by DEC value	37%	4.25	✓ won
Joselyne Edwards wins value	52%	2.93	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO	19%	8.00	✗ lost
Joselyne Edwards wins by Sub or Decision value	45%	3.35	✓ won
Joselyne Edwards wins by Decision value	37%	4.00	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 1	14%	9.75	✗ lost
Joselyne Edwards wins by KO/TKO	10%	14.00	✗ lost
Finish before Round 3	25%	5.40	✗ lost
Norma Dumont wins by KO/TKO	9%	14.00	✗ lost
Joselyne Edwards wins by KO or Sub	18%	7.25	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	27%	4.50	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	30%	4.00	✗ lost
Joselyne Edwards wins by SUB	8%	12.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	10%	10.00	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 2	86%	1.05	✓ won
Norma Dumont wins by KO or Sub	12%	7.25	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	70%	1.22	✓ won
Over 2.5 rounds	73%	1.16	✓ won
Fight goes to Decision	70%	1.20	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission	11%	6.75	✗ lost
Norma Dumont wins	48%	1.41	✗ lost
Norma Dumont wins by KO or Decision	43%	1.53	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	6%	11.00	✗ lost
Norma Dumont wins in R3+ or by Decision	36%	1.57	✗ lost
Norma Dumont wins by DEC	33%	1.67	✗ lost
Norma Dumont wins by Sub or Decision	36%	1.50	✗ lost
Norma Dumont wins by SUB	3%	12.00	✗ lost

Jafel Filho

17-5-0

Winner

Cody Durden

Decision (U) · R3

✓ predicted

Cody Durden

18-10-1

▼

Model Prediction

Jafel Filho 34%

KO 0%· Sub 19%· Dec 13%

Cody Durden ✓ won 66%

KO 14%· Sub 8%· Dec 46%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Cody Durden wins value	66%	5.75	✓ predicted
Finish round Goes the distance	59%	—	✓ predicted

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Cody Durden wins value	66%	5.75	✓ won
Jafel Filho wins	34%	1.14	✗ lost

Eric McConico

11-4-1

Winner

Eric McConico

Decision (U) · R3

✗ wrong

Rodolfo Vieira

11-5-0

▼

Model Prediction

Eric McConico ✓ won 44%

KO 10%· Sub 6%· Dec 18%

Rodolfo Vieira 56%

KO 11%· Sub 26%· Dec 28%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Rodolfo Vieira wins	56%	1.35	missed
Method Rodolfo Vieira wins by Decision	28%	3.25	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	46%	1.74	✓ predicted

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Eric McConico wins by SUB	6%	34.00	✗ lost
Eric McConico wins value	44%	3.23	✓ won
Eric McConico wins by KO or Sub	17%	7.25	✗ lost
Eric McConico wins in R3+ or by Decision	26%	4.40	✓ won
Eric McConico wins by Sub or Decision	24%	4.50	✓ won
Finish before Round 3	45%	2.21	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 1	26%	3.60	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 2	75%	1.25	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission	32%	2.90	✗ lost
Eric McConico wins by KO or Decision	28%	3.30	✓ won
Fight ends before decision	54%	1.74	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	46%	2.01	✓ won
Under 2.5 rounds	46%	2.00	✗ lost
Rodolfo Vieira wins by DEC	28%	3.25	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	46%	1.99	✓ won
Over 2.5 rounds	54%	1.72	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	18%	5.00	✗ lost
Rodolfo Vieira wins by Decision	28%	3.20	✗ lost
Rodolfo Vieira wins by Sub or Decision	54%	1.63	✗ lost
Rodolfo Vieira wins by KO or Decision	39%	2.25	✗ lost
Eric McConico wins by KO/TKO	10%	8.50	✗ lost
Eric McConico wins by DEC	18%	4.90	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO	21%	3.90	✗ lost
Rodolfo Vieira wins by KO or Sub	37%	2.15	✗ lost
Rodolfo Vieira wins by SUB	26%	3.05	✗ lost
Rodolfo Vieira wins	56%	1.35	✗ lost
Rodolfo Vieira wins by KO/TKO	11%	6.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	9%	7.00	✗ lost

Davey Grant

17-8-0

Winner

Davey Grant

Decision (U) · R3

✗ wrong

Adrian Luna Martinetti

0-1-0

▼

Model Prediction

Davey Grant ✓ won 48%

KO 13%· Sub 8%· Dec 34%

Adrian Luna Martinetti 52%

KO 10%· Sub 13%· Dec 21%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Adrian Luna Martinetti wins	52%	2.07	missed
Method Adrian Luna Martinetti wins by Decision	21%	3.50	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	55%	1.74	✓ predicted

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Davey Grant wins by SUB	8%	16.00	✗ lost
Davey Grant wins by Sub or Decision	43%	2.85	✓ won
Davey Grant wins by DEC	34%	3.30	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission	22%	5.10	✗ lost
Davey Grant wins by Decision	34%	3.20	✓ won
Adrian Luna Martinetti wins	52%	2.07	✗ lost
Adrian Luna Martinetti wins by KO or Sub	24%	4.25	✗ lost
Adrian Luna Martinetti wins by KO/TKO	10%	9.50	✗ lost
Finish before Round 3	38%	2.61	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	41%	2.37	✗ lost
Adrian Luna Martinetti wins in R3+ or by Decision	33%	3.00	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	55%	1.74	✓ won
Fight goes to Decision	55%	1.73	✓ won
Adrian Luna Martinetti wins by finish in Round 1	12%	8.00	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 2	78%	1.20	✓ won
Fight ends before decision	45%	2.01	✗ lost
Adrian Luna Martinetti wins by SUB	13%	6.75	✗ lost
Davey Grant wins by KO or Decision	47%	1.91	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	15%	5.80	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	59%	1.53	✓ won
Davey Grant wins	48%	1.79	✓ won
Adrian Luna Martinetti wins by KO or Decision	31%	2.70	✗ lost
Adrian Luna Martinetti wins by Sub or Decision	34%	2.40	✗ lost
Davey Grant wins by KO or Sub	21%	3.50	✗ lost
Adrian Luna Martinetti wins by DEC	21%	3.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	23%	3.05	✗ lost
Davey Grant wins by finish in Round 1	10%	6.50	✗ lost
Adrian Luna Martinetti wins by finish in Round 1	12%	5.40	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	8%	7.50	✗ lost
Davey Grant wins by KO/TKO	13%	4.20	✗ lost
Davey Grant wins by finish in Round 1	10%	4.40	✗ lost

Alexander Hernandez

18-8-0

Winner

Rafa Garcia

Decision (U) · R3

✓ predicted

Rafa Garcia

18-4-0

▼

Model Prediction

Alexander Hernandez 48%

KO 10%· Sub 3%· Dec 25%

Rafa Garcia ✓ won 52%

KO 10%· Sub 7%· Dec 44%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Rafa Garcia wins	52%	2.08	✓ predicted
Method Rafa Garcia wins by Decision value	44%	3.05	✓ predicted
Finish round Goes the distance	69%	1.50	✓ predicted

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Rafa Garcia wins by KO or Decision value	54%	2.50	✓ won
Rafa Garcia wins by DEC value	44%	3.05	✓ won
Rafa Garcia wins by Decision value	44%	3.00	✓ won
Rafa Garcia wins by Sub or Decision value	52%	2.35	✓ won
Rafa Garcia wins by KO/TKO	10%	11.50	✗ lost
Rafa Garcia wins	52%	2.08	✓ won
Fight goes to decision	69%	1.50	✓ won
Fight goes to Decision	69%	1.49	✓ won
Over 2.5 rounds	72%	1.40	✓ won
Fight reaches Round 3	75%	1.33	✓ won
Rafa Garcia wins by KO or Sub	18%	5.30	✗ lost
Alexander Hernandez wins in R3+ or by Decision	36%	2.50	✗ lost
Alexander Hernandez wins by SUB	3%	26.00	✗ lost
Rafa Garcia wins by finish in Round 1	8%	9.50	✗ lost
Finish before Round 3	25%	3.18	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	28%	2.75	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	31%	2.47	✗ lost
Alexander Hernandez wins by Sub or Decision	28%	2.65	✗ lost
Alexander Hernandez wins by DEC	25%	2.85	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	11%	6.75	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	10%	6.75	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	20%	3.50	✗ lost
Alexander Hernandez wins by KO or Decision	35%	1.82	✗ lost
Rafa Garcia wins by SUB	7%	8.50	✗ lost
Rafa Garcia wins by finish in Round 1	8%	6.75	✗ lost
Alexander Hernandez wins by KO or Sub	13%	4.10	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	6%	9.25	✗ lost
Alexander Hernandez wins by finish in Round 1	6%	7.50	✗ lost
Alexander Hernandez wins by KO/TKO	10%	4.60	✗ lost
Alexander Hernandez wins by finish in Round 1	6%	5.20	✗ lost