UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal — Results & Recap

Track record

Every pick, graded

What the model said before each fight, what happened, and the locked bets it would have placed. Losses stay on the page.

221 / 330

Correct Picks

67.0% accuracy · 32 events

12 / 22

Parlay Legs

12 parlays · −$576

+$852

Running P&L · locked picks

$1000 / event · Conservative · Kelly-weighted · closing: +$609

77 of 111 confident picks landed — when the model gives a fighter 70%+ it has been right 69% of the time

20–30 betting record with the same amount on every recommended bet (-2.3 units — early days, small sample)

Bankroll curve $1000 per event · Conservative tier · locked picks +$852

2026-06-15 peak $990 · trough $-1008 2026-10-31

From 17 Oct 2026 each card's picks are locked 24 hours before its first bout, as the site showed them then. Earlier cards were locked when their first prop market opened, days to weeks before the card.

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan 2026-10-31 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-10-30 21:02 UTC (24h before) · +$268

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Luana Santos wins	Yana Santos vs Luana Santos	1.35	$80	✓ won +$28
Theodor Berggren wins by Sub or Decision	Theodor Berggren vs Rodrigo Sezinando	4.90	$66	✗ lost −$66
Jacobe Smith wins by KO or Decision	Randy Brown vs Jacobe Smith	1.86	$63	✓ won +$54
Zach Reese wins by DEC	Mickey Gall vs Zach Reese	8.50	$34	✓ won +$252

UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev 2026-10-24 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-10-23 14:02 UTC (24h before) · +$303

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Daniel Santos wins by KO or Decision	Daniel Santos vs Bolaji Oki	2.45	$80	✓ won +$116
Jacob Malkoun wins	Abubakar Vagaev vs Jacob Malkoun	2.32	$80	✗ lost −$80
Ramazan Temirov wins by KO or Decision	Ramazan Temirov vs Lone'er Kavanagh	1.99	$70	✗ lost −$70
Colby Thicknesse wins by Sub or Decision	Colby Thicknesse vs Asaf Chopurov	6.25	$64	✓ won +$337

UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott 2026-10-17 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-10-16 21:24 UTC (24h before) · −$80

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Nate Landwehr wins by KO or Decision	Nate Landwehr vs Mandel Nallo	4.70	$80	✗ lost −$80

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan 2026-10-10 · $1000 Conservative · even split · locked 2026-09-19 15:16 UTC · +$1220

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Brendan Allen wins	Brendan Allen vs Christian Leroy Duncan	2.22	$1000	✓ won +$1220

UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 2026-09-19 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-09-09 12:20 UTC · +$11

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Dooho Choi wins	Patricio Pitbull vs Dooho Choi	1.39	$72	✗ lost −$72
Edmen Shahbazyan wins	Edmen Shahbazyan vs Brunno Ferreira	1.59	$63	✓ won +$37
Joshua Van wins	Alexandre Pantoja vs Joshua Van	1.85	$54	✓ won +$46

Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado 2026-09-12 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-09-09 12:20 UTC · −$95

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Jose Delgado wins	Jean Silva vs Jose Delgado	4.25	—	⋯ pending
Rafa Garcia wins	Rafa Garcia vs Rongzhu	2.53	$74	✗ lost −$74
Marwan Rahiki wins	Tommy McMillen vs Marwan Rahiki	2.37	$21	✗ lost −$21

UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse 2026-09-05 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-09-02 09:47 UTC · −$52

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Mario Pinto wins	Ryan Spann vs Mario Pinto	1.35	$80	✓ won +$28
Dan Hooker wins	Dan Hooker vs Salahdine Parnasse	5.75	$80	✗ lost −$80

UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song 2026-08-29 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-08-25 11:10 UTC · −$4

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Julia Polastri wins	Xiong Jingnan vs Julia Polastri	1.45	—	⋯ pending
Nilson Rojas wins	Bilal Hasan vs Nilson Rojas	5.50	$80	✗ lost −$80
Denise Gomes wins	Yan Xiaonan vs Denise Gomes	2.32	$57	✓ won +$76

UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues 2026-08-22 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-08-19 09:05 UTC · −$111

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Terrance Chatman wins	Anthony Wint vs Terrance Chatman	8.00	$80	✗ lost −$80
Ryan Kuse wins	Marcio Barbosa vs Ryan Kuse	7.00	$31	✗ lost −$31

UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry 2026-08-15 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-07-29 12:37 UTC · −$80

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Gillian Robertson wins	Mackenzie Dern vs Gillian Robertson	2.72	$80	✗ lost −$80

UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld 2026-08-08 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-08-04 11:58 UTC · −$75

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Louie Sutherland wins	Henrique Da Silva Lopes vs Louie Sutherland	1.63	—	⋯ pending
Guilherme Pat wins	Steven Asplund vs Guilherme Pat	3.02	$49	✗ lost −$49
Jessie Rosas wins	Miles Johns vs Jessie Rosas	2.33	—	⋯ pending
Amanda Lemos wins	Amanda Lemos vs Alexia Thainara	3.02	$27	✗ lost −$27

UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez 2026-08-01 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-07-28 16:52 UTC · −$56

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Mateusz Rebecki wins	Kyle Prepolec vs Mateusz Rebecki	1.18	$80	✓ won +$14
Oban Elliott wins	Oban Elliott vs Michael Oliveira	3.57	$80	✗ lost −$80
Bogdan Grad wins	Dennis Buzukja vs Bogdan Grad	1.52	$62	✓ won +$32
Fight goes to Decision	Daniel Rodriguez vs Uros Medic	7.25	$22	✗ lost −$22

UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov 2026-07-25 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-07-21 13:32 UTC · −$102

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Nurullo Aliev wins	Mike Davis vs Nurullo Aliev	1.54	$80	✓ won +$43
Tyrell Fortune wins	Rizvan Kuniev vs Tyrell Fortune	3.34	$80	✗ lost −$80
Damian Rzepecki wins	Magomed Zaynukov vs Damian Rzepecki	3.73	$43	✗ lost −$43
Dustin Jacoby wins	Dustin Jacoby vs Muhammad Said	1.59	$23	✗ lost −$23

UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman 2026-07-18 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-07-14 09:24 UTC · +$38

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Chase Hooper wins	Chase Hooper vs Mitch Ramirez	1.27	$80	✓ won +$22
Christian Leroy Duncan wins	Jared Cannonier vs Christian Leroy Duncan	1.32	$80	✓ won +$26
Dricus Du Plessis wins by SUB	Kamaru Usman vs Dricus Du Plessis	9.25	$55	✗ lost −$55
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani wins	Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs Seokhyeon Ko	2.66	$28	✓ won +$46

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 2026-07-11 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly · locked 2026-06-07 13:59 UTC · −$200

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Elisha Ellison wins	Gable Steveson vs Elisha Ellison	10.00	$138	✗ lost −$138
Benoit Saint Denis wins	Paddy Pimblett vs Benoit Saint Denis	1.53	$62	✗ lost −$62

UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres 2026-06-27 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly · locked 2026-06-24 16:05 UTC · −$216

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Manuel Torres wins	Rafael Fiziev vs Manuel Torres	1.96	$115	✗ lost −$115
Eric Nolan wins by Sub or Decision	Eric Nolan vs Farman Hasanov	5.30	$70	✗ lost −$70
Matheus Camilo wins	Nazim Sadykhov vs Matheus Camilo	2.99	$48	✓ won +$95
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	Julius Walker vs Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev	3.92	$44	✗ lost −$44
Fight reaches Round 2	Julius Walker vs Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev	2.17	$44	✗ lost −$44
Michel Pereira wins	Michel Pereira vs Shara Magomedov	3.82	$37	✗ lost −$37

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi 2 2026-06-20 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly · locked 2026-06-16 17:28 UTC · +$109

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Luana Santos wins	Karol Rosa vs Luana Santos	1.97	$157	✓ won +$152
Kyoji Horiguchi wins by KO/TKO	Kyoji Horiguchi vs Manel Kape	11.50	$43	✗ lost −$43

UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje 2026-06-15 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly · locked 2026-06-07 13:59 UTC · −$26

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Josh Hokit wins by KO or Decision	Derrick Lewis vs Josh Hokit	1.78	$73	✓ won +$57
Ilia Topuria wins by DEC	Justin Gaethje vs Ilia Topuria	13.00	$57	✗ lost −$57
Steve Garcia wins	Steve Garcia vs Diego Lopes	2.48	$52	✗ lost −$52
Bo Nickal wins by KO or Decision	Kyle Daukaus vs Bo Nickal	1.71	$38	✓ won +$27

12 / 22

Legs landed

54.5% of picks

3 / 12

Parlays won

every leg has to land

−$576

Profit

$100 on each

Only 12 parlays settled so far — far too few to judge the profit either way. On 91 past cards, parlays picked this way landed 65% of the time.

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan 2026-10-31 · +$138

2-leg @ 2.38 Fight reaches Round 3 @ 1.28Jacobe Smith wins by KO or Decision @ 1.86 ✓ WON +$138

UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev 2026-10-24 · −$100

2-leg @ 4.38 Ends in Round 3+ / Decision @ 2.20Ramazan Temirov wins by KO or Decision @ 1.99 ✗ LOST −$100

UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott 2026-10-17 · −$100

2-leg @ 2.80 Melissa Croden wins @ 1.31Ends in Round 3+ / Decision @ 2.14 ✗ LOST −$100

UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 2026-09-19 · −$100

2-leg @ 2.21 Dooho Choi wins @ 1.39Edmen Shahbazyan wins @ 1.59 ✗ LOST −$100

Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado 2026-09-12 · −$100

2-leg @ 3.35 Ends in Round 3+ / Decision @ 2.22Edgar Chairez wins @ 1.51 ✗ LOST −$100

UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse 2026-09-05 · +$107

2-leg @ 2.07 Mario Pinto wins @ 1.35Felipe Lima wins @ 1.53 ✓ WON +$107

UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song 2026-08-29 · −$100

2-leg @ 1.81 Julia Polastri wins @ 1.45Ends in Round 3+ / Decision @ 1.25 ✗ LOST −$100

UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues 2026-08-22 · −$100

2-leg @ 2.31 Fight reaches Round 2 @ 1.30Gauge Young wins @ 1.78 ✗ LOST −$100

UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez 2026-08-01 · +$79

2-leg @ 1.79 Mateusz Rebecki wins @ 1.18Bogdan Grad wins @ 1.52 ✓ WON +$79

UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov 2026-07-25 · −$100

2-leg @ 2.45 Dustin Jacoby wins @ 1.59Nurullo Aliev wins @ 1.54 ✗ LOST −$100

UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman 2026-07-18 · −$100

2-leg @ 2.24 Christian Leroy Duncan wins @ 1.32Alvin Hines wins @ 1.70 ✗ LOST −$100

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 2026-07-11 · −$100

2-leg @ 1.99 Damian Pinas wins @ 1.46Fight reaches Round 2 @ 1.36 ✗ LOST −$100

UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal 7/13 · 54%

2026-04-25

Aljamain Sterling

25-5-0

Winner

Aljamain Sterling

Decision (U) · R5

✓ predicted

Youssef Zalal

18-5-1

Model Prediction

Aljamain Sterling ✓ won 51%

KO 10%· Sub 8%· Dec 31%

Youssef Zalal 49%

KO 10%· Sub 13%· Dec 27%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Aljamain Sterling wins	51%	2.10	✓ predicted
Method Aljamain Sterling wins by Decision	31%	3.60	✓ predicted
Finish round Goes the distance	58%	2.24	✓ predicted

Every Sportsbet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	65%	3.14	✓ won
Youssef Zalal wins by SUB	13%	12.50	✗ lost
Aljamain Sterling wins by KO/TKO	10%	16.00	✗ lost
Finish before Round 3	35%	4.25	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 1	20%	7.25	✗ lost
Aljamain Sterling wins by KO or Decision value	41%	3.10	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	14%	8.00	✗ lost
Aljamain Sterling wins by DEC	31%	3.60	✓ won
Aljamain Sterling wins	51%	2.10	✓ won
Youssef Zalal wins by Sub or Decision	41%	2.40	✗ lost
Youssef Zalal wins by KO or Sub	24%	4.00	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	42%	2.24	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	62%	1.53	✓ won
Fight goes to decision	58%	1.60	✓ won
Fight goes to Decision	58%	1.59	✓ won
Under 2.5 rounds	38%	2.37	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	22%	4.10	✗ lost
Aljamain Sterling wins by Sub or Decision	39%	2.25	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO	20%	4.30	✗ lost
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	65%	1.33	✓ won
Aljamain Sterling wins in R4+ or by Decision	30%	2.95	✓ won
Fight reaches Round 2	80%	1.08	✓ won
Youssef Zalal wins	49%	1.74	✗ lost
Aljamain Sterling wins by KO or Sub	18%	4.40	✗ lost
Youssef Zalal wins by DEC	27%	2.80	✗ lost
Youssef Zalal wins by finish in Round 3	4%	17.00	✗ lost
Youssef Zalal wins by KO or Decision	38%	1.91	✗ lost
Youssef Zalal wins in R4+ or by Decision	28%	2.35	✗ lost
Youssef Zalal wins by KO/TKO	10%	5.40	✗ lost
Aljamain Sterling wins by SUB	8%	5.60	✗ lost

Sedriques Dumas

10-5-0

Winner

Jackson McVey

SUB · R1

✗ wrong

Jackson McVey

7-2-0

Model Prediction

Sedriques Dumas 54%

KO 9%· Sub 17%· Dec 20%

Jackson McVey ✓ won 46%

KO 28%· Sub 7%· Dec 20%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Sedriques Dumas wins value	54%	2.57	missed
Method Sedriques Dumas wins by Decision value	20%	9.50	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	40%	4.80	missed

Every Sportsbet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Fight goes to Decision	40%	4.90	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	40%	4.80	✗ lost
Sedriques Dumas wins by DEC value	20%	9.50	✗ lost
Jackson McVey wins by DEC value	20%	9.25	✗ lost
Sedriques Dumas wins by Decision value	20%	8.50	✗ lost
Jackson McVey wins by Decision value	20%	8.50	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 3	47%	3.31	✗ lost
Sedriques Dumas wins by Sub or Decision value	37%	3.90	✗ lost
Sedriques Dumas wins value	54%	2.57	✗ lost
Jackson McVey wins by KO or Decision value	48%	2.55	✗ lost
Sedriques Dumas wins by KO or Decision	29%	3.90	✗ lost
Sedriques Dumas wins by SUB	17%	6.00	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	43%	2.25	✗ lost
Jackson McVey wins by KO/TKO	28%	3.35	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	57%	1.57	✓ won
Sedriques Dumas wins by KO or Sub	25%	3.20	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	37%	2.20	✗ lost
Sedriques Dumas wins by finish in Round 1	14%	5.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	20%	3.60	✗ lost
Jackson McVey wins	46%	1.51	✓ won
Fight ends before decision	60%	1.16	✓ won
Finish before Round 3	53%	1.30	✓ won
Jackson McVey wins by Sub or Decision	27%	2.55	✓ won
Jackson McVey wins by KO or Sub	34%	1.72	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	7%	8.00	✗ lost
Sedriques Dumas wins by KO/TKO	9%	6.00	✗ lost
Sedriques Dumas wins by finish in Round 1	14%	3.70	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	23%	2.20	✓ won
Jackson McVey wins by finish in Round 1	19%	1.94	✓ won
Jackson McVey wins by SUB	7%	3.35	✓ won

Ryan Spann

24-11-0

Winner

Ryan Spann

KO/TKO · R2

✓ predicted

Marcus Buchecha

5-3-1

Model Prediction

Ryan Spann ✓ won 62%

KO 15%· Sub 22%· Dec 21%

Marcus Buchecha 38%

KO 11%· Sub 7%· Dec 24%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Ryan Spann wins value	62%	2.23	✓ predicted
Method Ryan Spann wins by Submission value	22%	8.75	missed
Finish round Finish in Round 1	27%	—	missed

Every Sportsbet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Ryan Spann wins by DEC value	21%	12.00	✗ lost
Ryan Spann wins in R3+ or by Decision value	33%	7.50	✗ lost
Ryan Spann wins by Sub or Decision value	43%	5.60	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	45%	4.80	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	45%	4.65	✗ lost
Ryan Spann wins by SUB value	22%	8.75	✗ lost
Marcus Buchecha wins by DEC value	24%	7.50	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 3	53%	3.27	✗ lost
Marcus Buchecha wins by Decision value	24%	7.00	✗ lost
Ryan Spann wins value	62%	2.23	✓ won
Marcus Buchecha wins by KO or Decision	35%	3.60	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	49%	2.25	✗ lost
Ryan Spann wins by finish in Round 2	13%	7.50	✓ won
Ryan Spann wins by KO or Decision	36%	2.75	✓ won
Ryan Spann wins by KO or Sub	37%	2.55	✓ won
Under 2.5 rounds	51%	1.57	✓ won
Ryan Spann wins by finish in Round 1	18%	4.00	✗ lost
Marcus Buchecha wins by KO/TKO	11%	6.00	✗ lost
Marcus Buchecha wins by Sub or Decision	31%	2.12	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	55%	1.17	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission	29%	2.20	✗ lost
Marcus Buchecha wins	38%	1.66	✗ lost
Finish before Round 3	47%	1.31	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	8%	7.75	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	26%	2.25	✓ won
Ryan Spann wins by finish in Round 1	18%	2.90	✗ lost
Ryan Spann wins by KO/TKO	15%	3.35	✓ won
Marcus Buchecha wins by KO or Sub	18%	2.00	✗ lost
Marcus Buchecha wins by finish in Round 1	9%	2.25	✗ lost
Marcus Buchecha wins by SUB	7%	2.80	✗ lost

Raoni Barcelos

21-5-0

Winner

Raoni Barcelos

Decision (S) · R3

✓ predicted

Montel Jackson

15-3-0

Model Prediction

Raoni Barcelos ✓ won 57%

KO 10%· Sub 11%· Dec 34%

Montel Jackson 43%

KO 11%· Sub 10%· Dec 25%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Raoni Barcelos wins value	57%	2.46	✓ predicted
Method Raoni Barcelos wins by Decision	34%	3.60	✓ predicted
Finish round Goes the distance	59%	1.65	✓ predicted

Every Sportsbet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Raoni Barcelos wins by KO/TKO	10%	14.00	✗ lost
Raoni Barcelos wins value	57%	2.46	✓ won
Raoni Barcelos wins by KO or Decision value	44%	3.05	✓ won
Raoni Barcelos wins by KO or Sub	21%	6.25	✗ lost
Raoni Barcelos wins in R3+ or by Decision	38%	3.25	✓ won
Raoni Barcelos wins by Sub or Decision value	44%	2.75	✓ won
Raoni Barcelos wins by DEC	34%	3.60	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission	20%	5.70	✗ lost
Montel Jackson wins by SUB	10%	11.50	✗ lost
Raoni Barcelos wins by finish in Round 1	10%	10.00	✗ lost
Raoni Barcelos wins by SUB	11%	9.25	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	59%	1.65	✓ won
Fight goes to Decision	59%	1.64	✓ won
Finish before Round 3	34%	2.81	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	63%	1.50	✓ won
Fight reaches Round 2	80%	1.17	✓ won
Under 2.5 rounds	37%	2.50	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	41%	2.15	✗ lost
Montel Jackson wins by Sub or Decision	35%	2.40	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	14%	5.80	✗ lost
Raoni Barcelos wins by finish in Round 1	10%	7.75	✗ lost
Montel Jackson wins by DEC	25%	2.95	✗ lost
Montel Jackson wins by Decision	25%	2.87	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	21%	3.20	✗ lost
Montel Jackson wins	43%	1.55	✗ lost
Montel Jackson wins by KO or Decision	36%	1.72	✗ lost
Montel Jackson wins by KO or Sub	20%	3.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	7%	8.00	✗ lost
Montel Jackson wins by KO/TKO	11%	3.80	✗ lost
Montel Jackson wins by finish in Round 1	10%	3.90	✗ lost

Mayra Bueno Silva

10-7-1

Winner

Michelle Montague

Decision (U) · R3

✗ wrong

Michelle Montague

8-0-0

Model Prediction

Mayra Bueno Silva 51%

KO 9%· Sub 10%· Dec 21%

Michelle Montague ✓ won 49%

KO 10%· Sub 6%· Dec 43%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Mayra Bueno Silva wins value	51%	4.10	missed
Method Mayra Bueno Silva wins by Decision	21%	5.70	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	65%	1.56	✓ predicted

Every Sportsbet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Mayra Bueno Silva wins by KO/TKO	9%	29.00	✗ lost
Mayra Bueno Silva wins value	51%	4.10	✗ lost
Mayra Bueno Silva wins by KO or Sub value	19%	10.00	✗ lost
Mayra Bueno Silva wins in R3+ or by Decision value	37%	5.10	✗ lost
Mayra Bueno Silva wins by KO or Decision value	31%	5.00	✗ lost
Mayra Bueno Silva wins by Sub or Decision value	31%	4.30	✗ lost
Mayra Bueno Silva wins by SUB	10%	13.00	✗ lost
Mayra Bueno Silva wins by DEC	21%	5.70	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	19%	6.00	✗ lost
Mayra Bueno Silva wins by finish in Round 1	9%	13.00	✗ lost
Mayra Bueno Silva wins by finish in Round 2	7%	15.00	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	65%	1.56	✓ won
Fight goes to Decision	65%	1.55	✓ won
Over 2.5 rounds	68%	1.44	✓ won
Fight reaches Round 2	84%	1.14	✓ won
Michelle Montague wins by DEC	43%	2.10	✓ won
Finish before Round 3	29%	3.07	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	32%	2.62	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	35%	2.33	✗ lost
Michelle Montague wins by Sub or Decision	49%	1.44	✓ won
Michelle Montague wins by KO/TKO	10%	7.00	✗ lost
Michelle Montague wins in R3+ or by Decision	35%	1.80	✓ won
Michelle Montague wins	49%	1.24	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission	16%	3.40	✗ lost
Michelle Montague wins by KO or Sub	16%	2.80	✗ lost
Michelle Montague wins by finish in Round 1	7%	6.00	✗ lost
Michelle Montague wins by finish in Round 2	6%	7.00	✗ lost
Michelle Montague wins by SUB	6%	4.25	✗ lost
Michelle Montague wins by finish in Round 1	7%	3.60	✗ lost

Max Griffin

20-13-0

Winner

Victor Valenzuela

Decision (U) · R3

✗ wrong

Victor Valenzuela

0-0-0

Model Prediction

Max Griffin 62%

KO 21%· Sub 10%· Dec 37%

Victor Valenzuela ✓ won 38%

KO 11%· Sub 8%· Dec 14%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Max Griffin wins	62%	2.17	missed
Method Max Griffin wins by Decision	37%	3.45	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	50%	2.16	✓ predicted

Every Sportsbet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Max Griffin wins by SUB	10%	26.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission value	18%	12.00	✗ lost
Max Griffin wins by finish in Round 1 value	22%	9.50	✗ lost
Finish before Round 2	37%	4.65	✗ lost
Victor Valenzuela wins by SUB	8%	19.00	✗ lost
Max Griffin wins by KO or Sub value	31%	5.00	✗ lost
Max Griffin wins by finish in Round 1	22%	6.50	✗ lost
Max Griffin wins by Sub or Decision value	46%	3.15	✗ lost
Max Griffin wins	62%	2.17	✗ lost
Max Griffin wins by KO or Decision value	57%	2.25	✗ lost
Max Griffin wins by DEC	37%	3.45	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	50%	2.50	✗ lost
Max Griffin wins by KO/TKO	21%	5.80	✗ lost
Max Griffin wins by Decision	37%	3.25	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	50%	2.16	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	50%	1.65	✓ won
Fight goes to Decision	50%	1.63	✓ won
Max Griffin wins by finish in Round 2	8%	10.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	32%	2.45	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	50%	1.50	✓ won
Fight reaches Round 2	63%	1.17	✓ won
Victor Valenzuela wins by KO or Sub	19%	3.45	✗ lost
Victor Valenzuela wins	38%	1.69	✓ won
Victor Valenzuela wins by finish in Round 1	14%	4.40	✗ lost
Victor Valenzuela wins by Sub or Decision	22%	2.70	✓ won
Victor Valenzuela wins in R3+ or by Decision	19%	2.55	✓ won
Victor Valenzuela wins by KO/TKO	11%	4.00	✗ lost
Victor Valenzuela wins by KO or Decision	25%	1.78	✓ won
Victor Valenzuela wins by DEC	14%	3.05	✓ won

Lucas Brennan

11-3-0

Winner

Francis Marshall

Decision (U) · R3

✓ predicted

Francis Marshall

10-3-0

Model Prediction

Lucas Brennan 47%

KO 14%· Sub 9%· Dec 19%

Francis Marshall ✓ won 53%

KO 13%· Sub 20%· Dec 25%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Francis Marshall wins	53%	1.16	✓ predicted
Method Francis Marshall wins by Decision	25%	2.60	✓ predicted
Finish round Goes the distance	44%	1.66	✓ predicted

Every Sportsbet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Lucas Brennan wins by KO/TKO value	14%	23.00	✗ lost
Lucas Brennan wins by KO or Decision value	33%	7.50	✗ lost
Lucas Brennan wins	47%	5.30	✗ lost
Lucas Brennan wins in R3+ or by Decision value	24%	8.25	✗ lost
Lucas Brennan wins by KO or Sub value	23%	8.25	✗ lost
Lucas Brennan wins by DEC value	19%	10.00	✗ lost
Lucas Brennan wins by Sub or Decision value	27%	5.80	✗ lost
Lucas Brennan wins by finish in Round 1	12%	11.00	✗ lost
Lucas Brennan wins by finish in Round 1	12%	10.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	28%	4.00	✗ lost
Finish before Round 2	30%	3.32	✗ lost
Lucas Brennan wins by finish in Round 2	8%	13.00	✗ lost
Lucas Brennan wins by SUB	9%	11.00	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	56%	1.66	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	44%	2.13	✓ won
Fight goes to Decision	44%	2.10	✓ won
Fight reaches Round 2	70%	1.30	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission	29%	2.65	✗ lost
Francis Marshall wins by Sub or Decision	45%	1.50	✓ won
Francis Marshall wins by SUB	20%	3.35	✗ lost
Francis Marshall wins by KO or Sub	33%	1.99	✗ lost
Francis Marshall wins by Decision	25%	2.62	✓ won
Francis Marshall wins by KO or Decision	38%	1.71	✓ won
Francis Marshall wins by DEC	25%	2.60	✓ won
Francis Marshall wins	53%	1.16	✓ won
Francis Marshall wins by KO/TKO	13%	4.50	✗ lost
Francis Marshall wins by finish in Round 1	18%	2.35	✗ lost

Julia Polastri

14-6-0

Winner

Talita Alencar

Decision (U) · R3

✗ wrong

Talita Alencar

8-1-1

Model Prediction

Julia Polastri 57%

KO 14%· Sub 9%· Dec 31%

Talita Alencar ✓ won 43%

KO 3%· Sub 8%· Dec 35%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Julia Polastri wins	57%	1.35	missed
Method Julia Polastri wins by Decision	31%	1.98	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	66%	2.92	✓ predicted

Every Sportsbet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Julia Polastri wins by SUB	9%	19.00	✗ lost
Talita Alencar wins by Decision value	35%	4.50	✓ won
Talita Alencar wins by KO or Decision value	38%	4.00	✓ won
Talita Alencar wins by DEC value	35%	4.30	✓ won
Talita Alencar wins by Sub or Decision value	43%	3.30	✓ won
Talita Alencar wins value	43%	3.21	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission	16%	7.75	✗ lost
Finish before Round 3	26%	4.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 1	14%	7.00	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	34%	2.92	✗ lost
Talita Alencar wins by KO/TKO	3%	31.00	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	30%	3.20	✗ lost
Talita Alencar wins by KO or Sub	11%	8.75	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 2	86%	1.08	✓ won
Over 2.5 rounds	70%	1.30	✓ won
Fight goes to decision	66%	1.37	✓ won
Fight goes to Decision	66%	1.36	✓ won
Julia Polastri wins by KO or Sub	23%	3.90	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	11%	7.50	✗ lost
Talita Alencar wins by SUB	8%	11.00	✗ lost
Julia Polastri wins	57%	1.35	✗ lost
Julia Polastri wins in R3+ or by Decision	43%	1.73	✗ lost
Julia Polastri wins by Sub or Decision	40%	1.84	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	17%	4.10	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	8%	8.50	✗ lost
Julia Polastri wins by KO/TKO	14%	4.50	✗ lost
Julia Polastri wins by KO or Decision	45%	1.41	✗ lost
Julia Polastri wins by DEC	31%	1.98	✗ lost

Joselyne Edwards

17-6-0

Winner

Joselyne Edwards

Decision (U) · R3

✓ predicted

Norma Dumont

13-2-0

Model Prediction

Joselyne Edwards ✓ won 52%

KO 10%· Sub 8%· Dec 37%

Norma Dumont 48%

KO 9%· Sub 3%· Dec 33%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Joselyne Edwards wins value	52%	2.93	✓ predicted
Method Joselyne Edwards wins by Decision value	37%	4.25	✓ predicted
Finish round Goes the distance	70%	4.00	✓ predicted

Every Sportsbet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Joselyne Edwards wins by KO or Decision value	46%	3.45	✓ won
Joselyne Edwards wins by DEC value	37%	4.25	✓ won
Joselyne Edwards wins value	52%	2.93	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO	19%	8.00	✗ lost
Joselyne Edwards wins by Sub or Decision value	45%	3.35	✓ won
Joselyne Edwards wins by Decision value	37%	4.00	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 1	14%	9.75	✗ lost
Joselyne Edwards wins by KO/TKO	10%	14.00	✗ lost
Finish before Round 3	25%	5.40	✗ lost
Norma Dumont wins by KO/TKO	9%	14.00	✗ lost
Joselyne Edwards wins by KO or Sub	18%	7.25	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	27%	4.50	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	30%	4.00	✗ lost
Joselyne Edwards wins by SUB	8%	12.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	10%	10.00	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 2	86%	1.05	✓ won
Norma Dumont wins by KO or Sub	12%	7.25	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	70%	1.22	✓ won
Over 2.5 rounds	73%	1.16	✓ won
Fight goes to Decision	70%	1.20	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission	11%	6.75	✗ lost
Norma Dumont wins	48%	1.41	✗ lost
Norma Dumont wins by KO or Decision	43%	1.53	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	6%	11.00	✗ lost
Norma Dumont wins in R3+ or by Decision	36%	1.57	✗ lost
Norma Dumont wins by DEC	33%	1.67	✗ lost
Norma Dumont wins by Sub or Decision	36%	1.50	✗ lost
Norma Dumont wins by SUB	3%	12.00	✗ lost

Jafel Filho

17-5-0

Winner

Cody Durden

Decision (U) · R3

✓ predicted

Cody Durden

18-10-1

Model Prediction

Jafel Filho 34%

KO 0%· Sub 19%· Dec 13%

Cody Durden ✓ won 66%

KO 14%· Sub 8%· Dec 46%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Cody Durden wins value	66%	5.75	✓ predicted
Finish round Goes the distance	59%	—	✓ predicted

Every Sportsbet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Cody Durden wins value	66%	5.75	✓ won
Jafel Filho wins	34%	1.14	✗ lost

Eric McConico

11-4-1

Winner

Eric McConico

Decision (U) · R3

✗ wrong

Rodolfo Vieira

11-5-0

Model Prediction

Eric McConico ✓ won 44%

KO 10%· Sub 6%· Dec 18%

Rodolfo Vieira 56%

KO 11%· Sub 26%· Dec 28%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Rodolfo Vieira wins	56%	1.35	missed
Method Rodolfo Vieira wins by Decision	28%	3.25	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	46%	1.74	✓ predicted

Every Sportsbet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Eric McConico wins by SUB	6%	34.00	✗ lost
Eric McConico wins value	44%	3.23	✓ won
Eric McConico wins by KO or Sub	17%	7.25	✗ lost
Eric McConico wins in R3+ or by Decision	26%	4.40	✓ won
Eric McConico wins by Sub or Decision	24%	4.50	✓ won
Finish before Round 3	45%	2.21	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 1	26%	3.60	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 2	75%	1.25	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission	32%	2.90	✗ lost
Eric McConico wins by KO or Decision	28%	3.30	✓ won
Fight ends before decision	54%	1.74	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	46%	2.01	✓ won
Under 2.5 rounds	46%	2.00	✗ lost
Rodolfo Vieira wins by DEC	28%	3.25	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	46%	1.99	✓ won
Over 2.5 rounds	54%	1.72	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	18%	5.00	✗ lost
Rodolfo Vieira wins by Decision	28%	3.20	✗ lost
Rodolfo Vieira wins by Sub or Decision	54%	1.63	✗ lost
Rodolfo Vieira wins by KO or Decision	39%	2.25	✗ lost
Eric McConico wins by KO/TKO	10%	8.50	✗ lost
Eric McConico wins by DEC	18%	4.90	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO	21%	3.90	✗ lost
Rodolfo Vieira wins by KO or Sub	37%	2.15	✗ lost
Rodolfo Vieira wins by SUB	26%	3.05	✗ lost
Rodolfo Vieira wins	56%	1.35	✗ lost
Rodolfo Vieira wins by KO/TKO	11%	6.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	9%	7.00	✗ lost

Davey Grant

17-8-0

Winner

Davey Grant

Decision (U) · R3

✗ wrong

Adrian Luna Martinetti

0-1-0

Model Prediction

Davey Grant ✓ won 48%

KO 13%· Sub 8%· Dec 34%

Adrian Luna Martinetti 52%

KO 10%· Sub 13%· Dec 21%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Adrian Luna Martinetti wins	52%	2.07	missed
Method Adrian Luna Martinetti wins by Decision	21%	3.50	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	55%	1.74	✓ predicted

Every Sportsbet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Davey Grant wins by SUB	8%	16.00	✗ lost
Davey Grant wins by Sub or Decision	43%	2.85	✓ won
Davey Grant wins by DEC	34%	3.30	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission	22%	5.10	✗ lost
Davey Grant wins by Decision	34%	3.20	✓ won
Adrian Luna Martinetti wins	52%	2.07	✗ lost
Adrian Luna Martinetti wins by KO or Sub	24%	4.25	✗ lost
Adrian Luna Martinetti wins by KO/TKO	10%	9.50	✗ lost
Finish before Round 3	38%	2.61	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	41%	2.37	✗ lost
Adrian Luna Martinetti wins in R3+ or by Decision	33%	3.00	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	55%	1.74	✓ won
Fight goes to Decision	55%	1.73	✓ won
Adrian Luna Martinetti wins by finish in Round 1	12%	8.00	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 2	78%	1.20	✓ won
Fight ends before decision	45%	2.01	✗ lost
Adrian Luna Martinetti wins by SUB	13%	6.75	✗ lost
Davey Grant wins by KO or Decision	47%	1.91	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	15%	5.80	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	59%	1.53	✓ won
Davey Grant wins	48%	1.79	✓ won
Adrian Luna Martinetti wins by KO or Decision	31%	2.70	✗ lost
Adrian Luna Martinetti wins by Sub or Decision	34%	2.40	✗ lost
Davey Grant wins by KO or Sub	21%	3.50	✗ lost
Adrian Luna Martinetti wins by DEC	21%	3.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	23%	3.05	✗ lost
Davey Grant wins by finish in Round 1	10%	6.50	✗ lost
Adrian Luna Martinetti wins by finish in Round 1	12%	5.40	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	8%	7.50	✗ lost
Davey Grant wins by KO/TKO	13%	4.20	✗ lost
Davey Grant wins by finish in Round 1	10%	4.40	✗ lost

Alexander Hernandez

18-8-0

Winner

Rafa Garcia

Decision (U) · R3

✓ predicted

Rafa Garcia

18-4-0

Model Prediction

Alexander Hernandez 48%

KO 10%· Sub 3%· Dec 25%

Rafa Garcia ✓ won 52%

KO 10%· Sub 7%· Dec 44%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Rafa Garcia wins	52%	2.08	✓ predicted
Method Rafa Garcia wins by Decision value	44%	3.05	✓ predicted
Finish round Goes the distance	69%	1.50	✓ predicted

Every Sportsbet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Rafa Garcia wins by KO or Decision value	54%	2.50	✓ won
Rafa Garcia wins by DEC value	44%	3.05	✓ won
Rafa Garcia wins by Decision value	44%	3.00	✓ won
Rafa Garcia wins by Sub or Decision value	52%	2.35	✓ won
Rafa Garcia wins by KO/TKO	10%	11.50	✗ lost
Rafa Garcia wins	52%	2.08	✓ won
Fight goes to decision	69%	1.50	✓ won
Fight goes to Decision	69%	1.49	✓ won
Over 2.5 rounds	72%	1.40	✓ won
Fight reaches Round 3	75%	1.33	✓ won
Rafa Garcia wins by KO or Sub	18%	5.30	✗ lost
Alexander Hernandez wins in R3+ or by Decision	36%	2.50	✗ lost
Alexander Hernandez wins by SUB	3%	26.00	✗ lost
Rafa Garcia wins by finish in Round 1	8%	9.50	✗ lost
Finish before Round 3	25%	3.18	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	28%	2.75	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	31%	2.47	✗ lost
Alexander Hernandez wins by Sub or Decision	28%	2.65	✗ lost
Alexander Hernandez wins by DEC	25%	2.85	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	11%	6.75	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	10%	6.75	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	20%	3.50	✗ lost
Alexander Hernandez wins by KO or Decision	35%	1.82	✗ lost
Rafa Garcia wins by SUB	7%	8.50	✗ lost
Rafa Garcia wins by finish in Round 1	8%	6.75	✗ lost
Alexander Hernandez wins by KO or Sub	13%	4.10	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	6%	9.25	✗ lost
Alexander Hernandez wins by finish in Round 1	6%	7.50	✗ lost
Alexander Hernandez wins by KO/TKO	10%	4.60	✗ lost
Alexander Hernandez wins by finish in Round 1	6%	5.20	✗ lost