UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo — Results & Recap

Track record

Every pick, graded

What the model said before each fight, what happened, and the locked bets it would have placed. Losses stay on the page.

221 / 330

Correct Picks

67.0% accuracy · 32 events

12 / 22

Parlay Legs

12 parlays · −$576

+$852

Running P&L · locked picks

$1000 / event · Conservative · Kelly-weighted · closing: +$609

77 of 111 confident picks landed — when the model gives a fighter 70%+ it has been right 69% of the time

20–30 betting record with the same amount on every recommended bet (-2.3 units — early days, small sample)

Bankroll curve $1000 per event · Conservative tier · locked picks +$852

2026-06-15 peak $990 · trough $-1008 2026-10-31

From 17 Oct 2026 each card's picks are locked 24 hours before its first bout, as the site showed them then. Earlier cards were locked when their first prop market opened, days to weeks before the card.

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan 2026-10-31 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-10-30 21:02 UTC (24h before) · +$268

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Luana Santos wins	Yana Santos vs Luana Santos	1.35	$80	✓ won +$28
Theodor Berggren wins by Sub or Decision	Theodor Berggren vs Rodrigo Sezinando	4.90	$66	✗ lost −$66
Jacobe Smith wins by KO or Decision	Randy Brown vs Jacobe Smith	1.86	$63	✓ won +$54
Zach Reese wins by DEC	Mickey Gall vs Zach Reese	8.50	$34	✓ won +$252

UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev 2026-10-24 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-10-23 14:02 UTC (24h before) · +$303

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Daniel Santos wins by KO or Decision	Daniel Santos vs Bolaji Oki	2.45	$80	✓ won +$116
Jacob Malkoun wins	Abubakar Vagaev vs Jacob Malkoun	2.32	$80	✗ lost −$80
Ramazan Temirov wins by KO or Decision	Ramazan Temirov vs Lone'er Kavanagh	1.99	$70	✗ lost −$70
Colby Thicknesse wins by Sub or Decision	Colby Thicknesse vs Asaf Chopurov	6.25	$64	✓ won +$337

UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott 2026-10-17 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-10-16 21:24 UTC (24h before) · −$80

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Nate Landwehr wins by KO or Decision	Nate Landwehr vs Mandel Nallo	4.70	$80	✗ lost −$80

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan 2026-10-10 · $1000 Conservative · even split · locked 2026-09-19 15:16 UTC · +$1220

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Brendan Allen wins	Brendan Allen vs Christian Leroy Duncan	2.22	$1000	✓ won +$1220

UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 2026-09-19 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-09-09 12:20 UTC · +$11

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Dooho Choi wins	Patricio Pitbull vs Dooho Choi	1.39	$72	✗ lost −$72
Edmen Shahbazyan wins	Edmen Shahbazyan vs Brunno Ferreira	1.59	$63	✓ won +$37
Joshua Van wins	Alexandre Pantoja vs Joshua Van	1.85	$54	✓ won +$46

Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado 2026-09-12 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-09-09 12:20 UTC · −$95

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Jose Delgado wins	Jean Silva vs Jose Delgado	4.25	—	⋯ pending
Rafa Garcia wins	Rafa Garcia vs Rongzhu	2.53	$74	✗ lost −$74
Marwan Rahiki wins	Tommy McMillen vs Marwan Rahiki	2.37	$21	✗ lost −$21

UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse 2026-09-05 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-09-02 09:47 UTC · −$52

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Mario Pinto wins	Ryan Spann vs Mario Pinto	1.35	$80	✓ won +$28
Dan Hooker wins	Dan Hooker vs Salahdine Parnasse	5.75	$80	✗ lost −$80

UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song 2026-08-29 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-08-25 11:10 UTC · −$4

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Julia Polastri wins	Xiong Jingnan vs Julia Polastri	1.45	—	⋯ pending
Nilson Rojas wins	Bilal Hasan vs Nilson Rojas	5.50	$80	✗ lost −$80
Denise Gomes wins	Yan Xiaonan vs Denise Gomes	2.32	$57	✓ won +$76

UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues 2026-08-22 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-08-19 09:05 UTC · −$111

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Terrance Chatman wins	Anthony Wint vs Terrance Chatman	8.00	$80	✗ lost −$80
Ryan Kuse wins	Marcio Barbosa vs Ryan Kuse	7.00	$31	✗ lost −$31

UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry 2026-08-15 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-07-29 12:37 UTC · −$80

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Gillian Robertson wins	Mackenzie Dern vs Gillian Robertson	2.72	$80	✗ lost −$80

UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld 2026-08-08 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-08-04 11:58 UTC · −$75

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Louie Sutherland wins	Henrique Da Silva Lopes vs Louie Sutherland	1.63	—	⋯ pending
Guilherme Pat wins	Steven Asplund vs Guilherme Pat	3.02	$49	✗ lost −$49
Jessie Rosas wins	Miles Johns vs Jessie Rosas	2.33	—	⋯ pending
Amanda Lemos wins	Amanda Lemos vs Alexia Thainara	3.02	$27	✗ lost −$27

UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez 2026-08-01 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-07-28 16:52 UTC · −$56

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Mateusz Rebecki wins	Kyle Prepolec vs Mateusz Rebecki	1.18	$80	✓ won +$14
Oban Elliott wins	Oban Elliott vs Michael Oliveira	3.57	$80	✗ lost −$80
Bogdan Grad wins	Dennis Buzukja vs Bogdan Grad	1.52	$62	✓ won +$32
Fight goes to Decision	Daniel Rodriguez vs Uros Medic	7.25	$22	✗ lost −$22

UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov 2026-07-25 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-07-21 13:32 UTC · −$102

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Nurullo Aliev wins	Mike Davis vs Nurullo Aliev	1.54	$80	✓ won +$43
Tyrell Fortune wins	Rizvan Kuniev vs Tyrell Fortune	3.34	$80	✗ lost −$80
Damian Rzepecki wins	Magomed Zaynukov vs Damian Rzepecki	3.73	$43	✗ lost −$43
Dustin Jacoby wins	Dustin Jacoby vs Muhammad Said	1.59	$23	✗ lost −$23

UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman 2026-07-18 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-07-14 09:24 UTC · +$38

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Chase Hooper wins	Chase Hooper vs Mitch Ramirez	1.27	$80	✓ won +$22
Christian Leroy Duncan wins	Jared Cannonier vs Christian Leroy Duncan	1.32	$80	✓ won +$26
Dricus Du Plessis wins by SUB	Kamaru Usman vs Dricus Du Plessis	9.25	$55	✗ lost −$55
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani wins	Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs Seokhyeon Ko	2.66	$28	✓ won +$46

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 2026-07-11 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly · locked 2026-06-07 13:59 UTC · −$200

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Elisha Ellison wins	Gable Steveson vs Elisha Ellison	10.00	$138	✗ lost −$138
Benoit Saint Denis wins	Paddy Pimblett vs Benoit Saint Denis	1.53	$62	✗ lost −$62

UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres 2026-06-27 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly · locked 2026-06-24 16:05 UTC · −$216

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Manuel Torres wins	Rafael Fiziev vs Manuel Torres	1.96	$115	✗ lost −$115
Eric Nolan wins by Sub or Decision	Eric Nolan vs Farman Hasanov	5.30	$70	✗ lost −$70
Matheus Camilo wins	Nazim Sadykhov vs Matheus Camilo	2.99	$48	✓ won +$95
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	Julius Walker vs Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev	3.92	$44	✗ lost −$44
Fight reaches Round 2	Julius Walker vs Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev	2.17	$44	✗ lost −$44
Michel Pereira wins	Michel Pereira vs Shara Magomedov	3.82	$37	✗ lost −$37

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi 2 2026-06-20 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly · locked 2026-06-16 17:28 UTC · +$109

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Luana Santos wins	Karol Rosa vs Luana Santos	1.97	$157	✓ won +$152
Kyoji Horiguchi wins by KO/TKO	Kyoji Horiguchi vs Manel Kape	11.50	$43	✗ lost −$43

UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje 2026-06-15 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly · locked 2026-06-07 13:59 UTC · −$26

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Josh Hokit wins by KO or Decision	Derrick Lewis vs Josh Hokit	1.78	$73	✓ won +$57
Ilia Topuria wins by DEC	Justin Gaethje vs Ilia Topuria	13.00	$57	✗ lost −$57
Steve Garcia wins	Steve Garcia vs Diego Lopes	2.48	$52	✗ lost −$52
Bo Nickal wins by KO or Decision	Kyle Daukaus vs Bo Nickal	1.71	$38	✓ won +$27

12 / 22

Legs landed

54.5% of picks

3 / 12

Parlays won

every leg has to land

−$576

Profit

$100 on each

Only 12 parlays settled so far — far too few to judge the profit either way. On 91 past cards, parlays picked this way landed 65% of the time.

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan 2026-10-31 · +$138

2-leg @ 2.38 Fight reaches Round 3 @ 1.28Jacobe Smith wins by KO or Decision @ 1.86 ✓ WON +$138

UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev 2026-10-24 · −$100

2-leg @ 4.38 Ends in Round 3+ / Decision @ 2.20Ramazan Temirov wins by KO or Decision @ 1.99 ✗ LOST −$100

UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott 2026-10-17 · −$100

2-leg @ 2.80 Melissa Croden wins @ 1.31Ends in Round 3+ / Decision @ 2.14 ✗ LOST −$100

UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 2026-09-19 · −$100

2-leg @ 2.21 Dooho Choi wins @ 1.39Edmen Shahbazyan wins @ 1.59 ✗ LOST −$100

Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado 2026-09-12 · −$100

2-leg @ 3.35 Ends in Round 3+ / Decision @ 2.22Edgar Chairez wins @ 1.51 ✗ LOST −$100

UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse 2026-09-05 · +$107

2-leg @ 2.07 Mario Pinto wins @ 1.35Felipe Lima wins @ 1.53 ✓ WON +$107

UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song 2026-08-29 · −$100

2-leg @ 1.81 Julia Polastri wins @ 1.45Ends in Round 3+ / Decision @ 1.25 ✗ LOST −$100

UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues 2026-08-22 · −$100

2-leg @ 2.31 Fight reaches Round 2 @ 1.30Gauge Young wins @ 1.78 ✗ LOST −$100

UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez 2026-08-01 · +$79

2-leg @ 1.79 Mateusz Rebecki wins @ 1.18Bogdan Grad wins @ 1.52 ✓ WON +$79

UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov 2026-07-25 · −$100

2-leg @ 2.45 Dustin Jacoby wins @ 1.59Nurullo Aliev wins @ 1.54 ✗ LOST −$100

UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman 2026-07-18 · −$100

2-leg @ 2.24 Christian Leroy Duncan wins @ 1.32Alvin Hines wins @ 1.70 ✗ LOST −$100

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 2026-07-11 · −$100

2-leg @ 1.99 Damian Pinas wins @ 1.46Fight reaches Round 2 @ 1.36 ✗ LOST −$100

UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo 10/11 · 91%

2026-05-30

Song Yadong

22-9-1

Winner

Song Yadong

SUB · R2

✓ predicted

Deiveson Figueiredo

25-6-1

Model Prediction

Song Yadong ✓ won 79%

KO 42%· Sub 7%· Dec 30%

Deiveson Figueiredo 21%

KO 7%· Sub 6%· Dec 8%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Song Yadong wins	79%	1.13	✓ predicted
Finish round Finish in Round 2	24%	—	✓ predicted

Every Sportsbet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Deiveson Figueiredo wins	21%	5.10	✗ lost
Song Yadong wins	79%	1.13	✓ won

Alonzo Menifield

17-6-1

Winner

Alonzo Menifield

KO/TKO · R1

✗ wrong

Zhang Mingyang

19-7-0

Model Prediction

Alonzo Menifield ✓ won 31%

KO 13%· Sub 6%· Dec 12%

Zhang Mingyang 69%

KO 56%· Sub 2%· Dec 11%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Zhang Mingyang wins	69%	1.39	missed
Method Zhang Mingyang wins by KO/TKO	56%	1.74	missed
Finish round Finish in Round 1	36%	1.86	✓ predicted

Every Sportsbet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Total takedowns over 1.5	36%	5.40	—
Zhang Mingyang wins in R3+ or by Decision value	28%	6.00	✗ lost
Alonzo Menifield takedowns over 0.5	54%	3.00	—
Zhang Mingyang wins by KO/TKO in R3	10%	16.00	✗ lost
Zhang Mingyang takedowns over 0.5	24%	6.50	—
Total takedowns over 0.5	59%	2.40	—
Zhang Mingyang wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	28%	4.90	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 3	40%	3.20	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	12%	10.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	14%	8.50	✗ lost
Zhang Mingyang wins by KO/TKO in R2	18%	6.25	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	23%	4.90	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	23%	4.60	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	23%	4.50	✗ lost
Zhang Mingyang wins by finish in Round 2	19%	5.50	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	66%	1.57	✓ won
Zhang Mingyang wins by DEC	11%	9.00	✗ lost
Alonzo Menifield wins by DEC	12%	8.50	✗ lost
Alonzo Menifield takedowns over 1.5	13%	7.50	—
Zhang Mingyang wins by KO or Decision	67%	1.49	✗ lost
Zhang Mingyang wins by KO/TKO	56%	1.74	✗ lost
Zhang Mingyang wins	69%	1.39	✗ lost
Alonzo Menifield wins by Decision	12%	8.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	69%	1.37	✓ won
Alonzo Menifield wins by KO or Decision	25%	3.70	✓ won
Alonzo Menifield wins	31%	3.01	✓ won
Alonzo Menifield wins by Sub or Decision	17%	5.30	✗ lost
Zhang Mingyang wins by KO or Sub	58%	1.58	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	77%	1.17	✓ won
Zhang Mingyang significant strikes over 19.5	75%	1.17	—
Zhang Mingyang significant strikes over 29.5	62%	1.40	—
Zhang Mingyang wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	46%	1.89	✗ lost
Zhang Mingyang significant strikes over 39.5	49%	1.67	—
Total significant strikes over 49.5	60%	1.35	—
Zhang Mingyang wins by Sub or Decision	14%	5.90	✗ lost
Alonzo Menifield wins by KO/TKO	13%	5.80	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 59.5	52%	1.48	—
Alonzo Menifield wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	11%	7.00	✓ won
Over 2.5 rounds	34%	2.25	✗ lost
Alonzo Menifield wins by KO or Sub	19%	4.00	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 69.5	46%	1.61	—
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	34%	2.15	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 79.5	41%	1.75	—
Alonzo Menifield wins by KO/TKO in R1	7%	11.00	✓ won
Zhang Mingyang significant strikes over 49.5	37%	1.91	—
Fight ends by finish in Round 1	38%	1.86	✓ won
Zhang Mingyang wins by KO/TKO in R1	28%	2.55	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 89.5	37%	1.90	—
Alonzo Menifield significant strikes over 19.5	52%	1.30	—
Alonzo Menifield significant strikes over 29.5	42%	1.62	—
Alonzo Menifield wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	7%	10.00	✗ lost
Alonzo Menifield wins by KO/TKO in R2	4%	15.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 99.5	32%	2.05	—
Alonzo Menifield significant strikes over 39.5	33%	1.91	—
Total significant strikes over 109.5	27%	2.20	—
Alonzo Menifield wins by Submission in R1 or R2	5%	13.00	✗ lost
Alonzo Menifield wins by finish in Round 2	6%	9.50	✗ lost
Zhang Mingyang significant strikes over 59.5	25%	2.30	—
Alonzo Menifield wins by SUB	6%	10.50	✗ lost
Alonzo Menifield significant strikes over 49.5	24%	2.25	—
Total significant strikes over 119.5	22%	2.40	—
Alonzo Menifield wins by Submission in R2	2%	29.00	✗ lost
Alonzo Menifield wins by Submission in R1	3%	19.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	8%	6.50	✗ lost
Alonzo Menifield wins by KO/TKO in R3	2%	21.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	3%	19.00	✗ lost
Alonzo Menifield significant strikes over 59.5	18%	2.63	—
Zhang Mingyang significant strikes over 69.5	18%	2.70	—
Fight ends by Submission in R3	1%	34.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	4%	11.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 129.5	17%	2.55	—
Alonzo Menifield wins by Submission in R3	1%	41.00	✗ lost
Zhang Mingyang wins by Submission in R2 or R3	1%	34.00	✗ lost
Alonzo Menifield significant strikes over 69.5	12%	3.10	—
Zhang Mingyang wins by Submission in R2	1%	46.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 139.5	11%	2.75	—
Zhang Mingyang significant strikes over 79.5	10%	3.10	—
Zhang Mingyang wins by SUB	2%	13.00	✗ lost
Zhang Mingyang wins by Submission in R1 or R2	2%	14.00	✗ lost
Alonzo Menifield significant strikes over 79.5	7%	3.60	—
Zhang Mingyang wins by Submission in R1	1%	19.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 149.5	6%	3.00	—
Zhang Mingyang significant strikes over 89.5	2%	3.75	—
Alonzo Menifield significant strikes over 89.5	1%	4.33	—
Total knockdowns over 0.5	2%	1.24	—
Total significant strikes over 159.5	1%	3.25	—

Sergei Pavlovich

20-3-0

Winner

Sergei Pavlovich

KO/TKO · R1

✓ predicted

Tallison Teixeira

9-1-0

Model Prediction

Sergei Pavlovich ✓ won 71%

KO 47%· Sub 5%· Dec 19%

Tallison Teixeira 29%

KO 18%· Sub 3%· Dec 8%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Sergei Pavlovich wins	71%	1.15	✓ predicted
Method Sergei Pavlovich wins by KO/TKO	47%	1.43	✓ predicted
Finish round Finish in Round 1	36%	—	✓ predicted

Every Sportsbet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Total takedowns over 2.5	26%	7.25	—
Total takedowns over 1.5	45%	4.00	—
Tallison Teixeira takedowns over 1.5	24%	7.50	—
Tallison Teixeira wins by KO or Decision value	26%	6.25	✗ lost
Tallison Teixeira wins value	29%	5.50	✗ lost
Tallison Teixeira wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	9%	17.00	✗ lost
Tallison Teixeira wins by KO/TKO in R2	6%	26.00	✗ lost
Tallison Teixeira wins by KO/TKO	18%	8.50	✗ lost
Tallison Teixeira wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	15%	10.00	✗ lost
Tallison Teixeira takedowns over 0.5	47%	3.00	—
Tallison Teixeira wins by KO or Sub	21%	6.50	✗ lost
Tallison Teixeira wins in R3+ or by Decision	11%	12.00	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 0.5	67%	2.02	—
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	40%	3.35	✗ lost
Tallison Teixeira wins by DEC	8%	17.00	✗ lost
Sergei Pavlovich wins in R3+ or by Decision	28%	4.50	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	26%	4.80	✗ lost
Sergei Pavlovich wins by Submission in R3	1%	126.00	✗ lost
Sergei Pavlovich wins by Sub or Decision	24%	5.10	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	26%	4.65	✗ lost
Sergei Pavlovich wins by DEC	19%	6.50	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 2	64%	1.86	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	13%	9.00	✗ lost
Tallison Teixeira wins by KO/TKO in R1	9%	13.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	12%	10.00	✗ lost
Tallison Teixeira wins by Sub or Decision	11%	10.50	✗ lost
Tallison Teixeira wins by KO/TKO in R3	3%	34.00	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	67%	1.53	✓ won
Sergei Pavlovich wins by KO/TKO in R3	8%	12.00	✗ lost
Tallison Teixeira wins by finish in Round 1	10%	9.50	✗ lost
Tallison Teixeira significant strikes over 29.5	52%	1.91	—
Tallison Teixeira significant strikes over 19.5	66%	1.45	—
Sergei Pavlovich wins by Submission in R2 or R3	3%	34.00	✗ lost
Sergei Pavlovich wins by Submission in R2	2%	51.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	24%	3.80	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	1%	61.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	21%	4.20	✗ lost
Sergei Pavlovich wins by SUB	6%	16.00	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	74%	1.17	✓ won
Sergei Pavlovich wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	24%	3.60	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	3%	31.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 49.5	54%	1.57	—
Sergei Pavlovich significant strikes over 19.5	63%	1.33	—
Fight ends by Submission	8%	10.00	✗ lost
Sergei Pavlovich wins	71%	1.15	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO	65%	1.25	✓ won
Sergei Pavlovich wins by Submission in R1 or R2	5%	18.00	✗ lost
Tallison Teixeira wins by finish in Round 1	10%	7.75	✗ lost
Sergei Pavlovich takedowns over 0.5	22%	3.60	—
Total significant strikes over 59.5	45%	1.76	—
Finish before Round 3	61%	1.30	✓ won
Sergei Pavlovich wins by KO or Decision	66%	1.20	✓ won
Over 2.5 rounds	33%	2.37	✗ lost
Sergei Pavlovich significant strikes over 29.5	46%	1.67	—
Sergei Pavlovich wins by KO/TKO in R2	15%	4.70	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 69.5	36%	1.97	—
Sergei Pavlovich wins by KO or Sub	52%	1.34	✓ won
Sergei Pavlovich wins by KO/TKO	47%	1.43	✓ won
Tallison Teixeira significant strikes over 39.5	28%	2.40	—
Tallison Teixeira wins by Submission in R2	1%	71.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	4%	16.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	32%	2.03	✓ won
Sergei Pavlovich takedowns over 1.5	8%	8.00	—
Sergei Pavlovich wins by Submission in R1	3%	23.00	✗ lost
Sergei Pavlovich wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	39%	1.58	✓ won
Tallison Teixeira wins by SUB	3%	21.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 79.5	27%	2.18	—
Sergei Pavlovich significant strikes over 39.5	28%	2.00	—
Tallison Teixeira significant strikes over 49.5	19%	2.88	—
Tallison Teixeira wins by Submission in R1 or R2	2%	23.00	✗ lost
Sergei Pavlovich wins by KO/TKO in R1	23%	2.30	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 89.5	22%	2.40	—
Sergei Pavlovich significant strikes over 49.5	21%	2.50	—
Sergei Pavlovich significant strikes over 59.5	16%	3.20	—
Tallison Teixeira wins by Submission in R1	1%	34.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 99.5	18%	2.65	—
Tallison Teixeira significant strikes over 59.5	13%	3.60	—
Sergei Pavlovich significant strikes over 69.5	11%	4.00	—
Total significant strikes over 109.5	14%	2.95	—
Sergei Pavlovich wins by finish in Round 1	26%	1.48	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 119.5	10%	3.35	—
Tallison Teixeira significant strikes over 69.5	6%	4.50	—
Sergei Pavlovich significant strikes over 79.5	6%	5.00	—
Total significant strikes over 129.5	6%	3.75	—
Total significant strikes over 139.5	2%	4.30	—
Total knockdowns over 0.5	2%	1.12	—

Kai Asakura

21-6-0

Winner

Kai Asakura

KO/TKO · R1

✓ predicted

Cameron Smotherman

12-6-0

Model Prediction

Kai Asakura ✓ won 52%

KO 11%· Sub 6%· Dec 35%

Cameron Smotherman 48%

KO 19%· Sub 4%· Dec 25%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Kai Asakura wins	52%	1.34	✓ predicted
Method Kai Asakura wins by Decision	35%	3.50	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	61%	2.41	missed

Every Sportsbet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Total takedowns over 2.5	24%	7.25	—
Cameron Smotherman wins by DEC value	25%	6.75	✗ lost
Cameron Smotherman wins in R3+ or by Decision value	32%	5.25	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 1.5	41%	4.10	—
Cameron Smotherman wins by KO or Decision value	44%	3.60	✗ lost
Cameron Smotherman wins value	48%	3.27	✗ lost
Cameron Smotherman wins by Sub or Decision value	29%	5.40	✗ lost
Kai Asakura takedowns over 0.5	38%	4.00	—
Fight goes to decision	61%	2.41	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 0.5	64%	2.25	—
Fight goes to Decision	61%	2.35	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	64%	2.10	✗ lost
Cameron Smotherman wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	16%	8.50	✗ lost
Kai Asakura takedowns over 1.5	18%	7.50	—
Cameron Smotherman wins by KO/TKO in R1	9%	14.00	✗ lost
Cameron Smotherman takedowns over 0.5	37%	3.50	—
Cameron Smotherman takedowns over 1.5	17%	7.50	—
Kai Asakura wins by Sub or Decision value	41%	3.05	✗ lost
Kai Asakura wins by DEC	35%	3.50	✗ lost
Cameron Smotherman wins by KO/TKO	19%	6.50	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 3	68%	1.75	✗ lost
Cameron Smotherman wins by KO or Sub	22%	5.25	✗ lost
Cameron Smotherman wins by finish in Round 1	11%	9.50	✗ lost
Cameron Smotherman wins by KO/TKO in R2	6%	17.00	✗ lost
Kai Asakura wins by Submission in R1 or R2	5%	21.00	✗ lost
Kai Asakura wins by Submission in R1	3%	34.00	✗ lost
Cameron Smotherman wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	10%	10.00	✗ lost
Cameron Smotherman significant strikes over 29.5	72%	1.33	—
Cameron Smotherman significant strikes over 19.5	81%	1.17	—
Kai Asakura wins by SUB	6%	16.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	9%	9.75	✗ lost
Kai Asakura wins in R3+ or by Decision	35%	2.55	✗ lost
Cameron Smotherman significant strikes over 39.5	58%	1.53	—
Fight ends by Submission in R1	5%	19.00	✗ lost
Kai Asakura wins by Submission in R2	2%	46.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 49.5	74%	1.18	—
Total significant strikes over 59.5	68%	1.26	—
Kai Asakura wins by Submission in R2 or R3	3%	29.00	✗ lost
Cameron Smotherman significant strikes over 49.5	45%	1.83	—
Kai Asakura significant strikes over 19.5	74%	1.11	—
Total significant strikes over 69.5	62%	1.33	—
Total significant strikes over 79.5	56%	1.43	—
Total significant strikes over 89.5	50%	1.53	—
Cameron Smotherman significant strikes over 59.5	35%	2.20	—
Cameron Smotherman wins by finish in Round 1	11%	6.75	✗ lost
Cameron Smotherman wins by finish in Round 2	7%	10.00	✗ lost
Cameron Smotherman wins by Submission in R1	2%	41.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	3%	23.00	✗ lost
Cameron Smotherman wins by KO/TKO in R3	3%	21.00	✗ lost
Kai Asakura wins	52%	1.34	✓ won
Kai Asakura significant strikes over 29.5	57%	1.22	—
Cameron Smotherman wins by Submission in R1 or R2	3%	23.00	✗ lost
Cameron Smotherman significant strikes over 69.5	24%	2.75	—
Total significant strikes over 99.5	40%	1.64	—
Kai Asakura wins by KO or Decision	46%	1.41	✓ won
Finish before Round 2	20%	3.35	✓ won
Cameron Smotherman wins by SUB	4%	18.00	✗ lost
Kai Asakura wins by Submission in R3	1%	61.00	✗ lost
Kai Asakura significant strikes over 39.5	44%	1.40	—
Fight ends before decision	39%	1.52	✓ won
Under 2.5 rounds	36%	1.66	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	15%	3.80	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 109.5	30%	1.78	—
Cameron Smotherman wins by Submission in R2	1%	46.00	✗ lost
Kai Asakura significant strikes over 49.5	33%	1.62	—
Cameron Smotherman significant strikes over 79.5	15%	3.50	—
Fight ends by KO/TKO	30%	1.74	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission in R3	2%	31.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	10%	5.10	✗ lost
Kai Asakura significant strikes over 59.5	23%	1.91	—
Total significant strikes over 119.5	22%	1.94	—
Cameron Smotherman wins by Submission in R3	1%	61.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	5%	6.75	✗ lost
Kai Asakura wins by KO or Sub	17%	2.05	✓ won
Kai Asakura significant strikes over 69.5	15%	2.30	—
Total significant strikes over 129.5	15%	2.12	—
Cameron Smotherman significant strikes over 89.5	6%	4.50	—
Kai Asakura wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	9%	2.90	✓ won
Kai Asakura wins by KO/TKO in R1	6%	4.75	✓ won
Kai Asakura wins by KO/TKO	11%	2.25	✓ won
Kai Asakura wins by KO/TKO in R2	4%	6.50	✗ lost
Kai Asakura wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	6%	4.00	✗ lost
Kai Asakura wins by finish in Round 1	8%	2.60	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 139.5	9%	2.35	—
Kai Asakura significant strikes over 79.5	7%	2.80	—
Kai Asakura wins by KO/TKO in R3	2%	8.75	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 149.5	2%	2.70	—
Total knockdowns over 0.5	2%	1.44	—

Jake Matthews

22-8-0

Winner

Jake Matthews

Decision (U) · R3

✓ predicted

Carlston Harris

19-8-0

Model Prediction

Jake Matthews ✓ won 74%

KO 16%· Sub 7%· Dec 51%

Carlston Harris 26%

KO 7%· Sub 7%· Dec 12%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Jake Matthews wins	74%	1.18	✓ predicted
Method Jake Matthews wins by Decision value	51%	2.95	✓ predicted
Finish round Goes the distance	63%	2.42	✓ predicted

Every Sportsbet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Jake Matthews wins by Decision value	51%	3.00	✓ won
Fight goes to decision	63%	2.42	✓ won
Jake Matthews wins by DEC value	51%	2.95	✓ won
Fight goes to Decision	63%	2.35	✓ won
Carlston Harris wins in R3+ or by Decision	17%	8.25	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	64%	2.10	✓ won
Carlston Harris wins by DEC	12%	11.00	✗ lost
Carlston Harris wins by KO or Decision	19%	7.00	✗ lost
Carlston Harris wins value	26%	4.95	✗ lost
Carlston Harris wins by Sub or Decision	19%	6.00	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 3	66%	1.76	✓ won
Carlston Harris wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	6%	18.00	✗ lost
Jake Matthews wins by Sub or Decision	57%	1.91	✓ won
Carlston Harris wins by KO/TKO in R1	4%	26.00	✗ lost
Jake Matthews wins by KO or Decision	67%	1.50	✓ won
Carlston Harris wins by KO/TKO in R2	2%	41.00	✗ lost
Carlston Harris wins by KO/TKO	7%	14.00	✗ lost
Carlston Harris wins by KO or Sub	14%	6.75	✗ lost
Carlston Harris wins by Submission in R1 or R2	7%	13.00	✗ lost
Jake Matthews wins	74%	1.18	✓ won
Total takedowns over 0.5	77%	1.12	—
Jake Matthews significant strikes over 19.5	76%	1.14	—
Carlston Harris significant strikes over 19.5	64%	1.30	—
Carlston Harris significant strikes over 29.5	51%	1.62	—
Carlston Harris wins by finish in Round 1	8%	10.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 49.5	63%	1.30	—
Carlston Harris wins by Submission in R1	4%	19.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 59.5	55%	1.41	—
Carlston Harris wins by Submission in R2	2%	31.00	✗ lost
Carlston Harris wins by SUB	7%	10.50	✗ lost
Jake Matthews significant strikes over 29.5	57%	1.33	—
Carlston Harris wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	3%	26.00	✗ lost
Finish before Round 2	22%	3.32	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	13%	5.25	✗ lost
Carlston Harris wins by finish in Round 1	8%	8.50	✗ lost
Carlston Harris significant strikes over 39.5	35%	2.00	—
Total significant strikes over 69.5	46%	1.52	—
Jake Matthews takedowns over 0.5	46%	1.45	—
Jake Matthews significant strikes over 39.5	42%	1.53	—
Total takedowns over 1.5	49%	1.29	—
Carlston Harris takedowns over 0.5	40%	1.53	—
Under 2.5 rounds	36%	1.66	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	13%	4.60	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	23%	2.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	8%	7.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	8%	7.25	✗ lost
Jake Matthews wins by KO/TKO in R1	9%	6.00	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	37%	1.52	✗ lost
Jake Matthews wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	15%	3.75	✗ lost
Carlston Harris significant strikes over 49.5	22%	2.50	—
Jake Matthews significant strikes over 49.5	31%	1.72	—
Total significant strikes over 79.5	31%	1.65	—
Carlston Harris significant strikes over 59.5	15%	3.40	—
Fight ends by Submission	14%	3.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	5%	10.00	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 2.5	31%	1.49	—
Jake Matthews wins by KO/TKO	16%	2.85	✗ lost
Jake Matthews wins by KO/TKO in R2	6%	8.25	✗ lost
Jake Matthews takedowns over 1.5	24%	1.91	—
Jake Matthews wins by KO or Sub	23%	1.87	✗ lost
Carlston Harris takedowns over 1.5	21%	2.00	—
Total significant strikes over 89.5	23%	1.81	—
Total significant strikes over 99.5	20%	2.00	—
Jake Matthews significant strikes over 59.5	19%	2.10	—
Jake Matthews wins by Submission in R1 or R2	6%	6.25	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 109.5	17%	2.20	—
Jake Matthews wins by Submission in R1	4%	9.75	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 119.5	15%	2.50	—
Carlston Harris significant strikes over 69.5	8%	4.50	—
Jake Matthews wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	7%	5.00	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 3.5	19%	1.79	—
Jake Matthews wins by SUB	7%	4.90	✗ lost
Jake Matthews takedowns over 2.5	14%	2.40	—
Total significant strikes over 129.5	12%	2.80	—
Jake Matthews wins by finish in Round 1	13%	2.40	✗ lost
Jake Matthews wins by Submission in R2	2%	13.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 139.5	9%	3.25	—
Carlston Harris takedowns over 2.5	10%	2.50	—
Jake Matthews wins by Submission in R2 or R3	3%	8.25	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 149.5	6%	3.70	—
Jake Matthews significant strikes over 69.5	8%	2.50	—
Total takedowns over 4.5	9%	2.25	—
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	3%	5.90	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	2%	9.25	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	1%	12.50	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 159.5	3%	4.30	—
Jake Matthews wins by KO/TKO in R3	1%	10.00	✗ lost
Jake Matthews takedowns over 3.5	4%	3.25	—
Carlston Harris significant strikes over 79.5	1%	6.00	—
Total knockdowns over 0.5	2%	1.63	—