UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo — Results & Recap

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Josh Hokit wins by KO or Decision	Derrick Lewis vs Josh Hokit	1.78	$331	✓ won +$258
Ilia Topuria wins by DEC	Justin Gaethje vs Ilia Topuria	13.00	$259	✗ lost −$259
Steve Garcia wins	Steve Garcia vs Diego Lopes	2.48	$237	✗ lost −$237
Bo Nickal wins by KO or Decision	Kyle Daukaus vs Bo Nickal	1.71	$172	✓ won +$122

Song Yadong

22-9-1

Winner

Song Yadong

Submission · R2

✓ predicted

Deiveson Figueiredo

25-6-1

▼

Model Prediction

Song Yadong ✓ won 79%

KO 42%· Sub 7%· Dec 30%

Deiveson Figueiredo 21%

KO 7%· Sub 6%· Dec 8%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Song Yadong wins	79%	1.13	✓ predicted
Finish round Finish in Round 2	24%	—	✓ predicted

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Deiveson Figueiredo wins	21%	5.10	✗ lost
Song Yadong wins	79%	1.13	✓ won

Alonzo Menifield

17-6-1

Winner

Alonzo Menifield

KO/TKO · R1

✗ wrong

Zhang Mingyang

19-7-0

▼

Model Prediction

Alonzo Menifield ✓ won 31%

KO 13%· Sub 6%· Dec 12%

Zhang Mingyang 69%

KO 56%· Sub 2%· Dec 11%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Zhang Mingyang wins	69%	1.39	missed
Method Zhang Mingyang wins by KO/TKO	56%	1.74	missed
Finish round Finish in Round 1	36%	1.86	✓ predicted

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Total takedowns over 1.5 value	36%	5.40	—
Zhang Mingyang wins in R3+ or by Decision value	28%	6.00	✗ lost
Alonzo Menifield takedowns over 0.5 value	54%	3.00	—
Zhang Mingyang wins by KO/TKO in R3 value	10%	16.00	✗ lost
Zhang Mingyang takedowns over 0.5 value	24%	6.50	—
Total takedowns over 0.5 value	59%	2.40	—
Zhang Mingyang wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3 value	28%	4.90	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 3 value	40%	3.20	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	12%	10.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	14%	8.50	✗ lost
Zhang Mingyang wins by KO/TKO in R2	18%	6.25	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	23%	4.90	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	23%	4.60	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	23%	4.50	✗ lost
Zhang Mingyang wins by finish in Round 2	19%	5.50	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	66%	1.57	✓ won
Zhang Mingyang wins by DEC	11%	9.00	✗ lost
Alonzo Menifield wins by DEC	12%	8.50	✗ lost
Alonzo Menifield takedowns over 1.5	13%	7.50	—
Zhang Mingyang wins by KO or Decision	67%	1.49	✗ lost
Zhang Mingyang wins by KO/TKO	56%	1.74	✗ lost
Zhang Mingyang wins	69%	1.39	✗ lost
Alonzo Menifield wins by Decision	12%	8.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	69%	1.37	✓ won
Alonzo Menifield wins by KO or Decision	25%	3.70	✓ won
Alonzo Menifield wins	31%	3.01	✓ won
Alonzo Menifield wins by Sub or Decision	17%	5.30	✗ lost
Zhang Mingyang wins by KO or Sub	58%	1.58	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	77%	1.17	✓ won
Zhang Mingyang significant strikes over 19.5	75%	1.17	—
Zhang Mingyang significant strikes over 29.5	62%	1.40	—
Zhang Mingyang wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	46%	1.89	✗ lost
Zhang Mingyang significant strikes over 39.5	49%	1.67	—
Total significant strikes over 49.5	60%	1.35	—
Zhang Mingyang wins by Sub or Decision	14%	5.90	✗ lost
Alonzo Menifield wins by KO/TKO	13%	5.80	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 59.5	52%	1.48	—
Alonzo Menifield wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	11%	7.00	✓ won
Over 2.5 rounds	34%	2.25	✗ lost
Alonzo Menifield wins by KO or Sub	19%	4.00	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 69.5	46%	1.61	—
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	34%	2.15	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 79.5	41%	1.75	—
Alonzo Menifield wins by KO/TKO in R1	7%	11.00	✓ won
Zhang Mingyang significant strikes over 49.5	37%	1.91	—
Fight ends by finish in Round 1	38%	1.86	✓ won
Zhang Mingyang wins by KO/TKO in R1	28%	2.55	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 89.5	37%	1.90	—
Alonzo Menifield significant strikes over 19.5	52%	1.30	—
Alonzo Menifield significant strikes over 29.5	42%	1.62	—
Alonzo Menifield wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	7%	10.00	✗ lost
Alonzo Menifield wins by KO/TKO in R2	4%	15.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 99.5	32%	2.05	—
Alonzo Menifield significant strikes over 39.5	33%	1.91	—
Total significant strikes over 109.5	27%	2.20	—
Alonzo Menifield wins by Submission in R1 or R2	5%	13.00	✗ lost
Alonzo Menifield wins by finish in Round 2	6%	9.50	✗ lost
Zhang Mingyang significant strikes over 59.5	25%	2.30	—
Alonzo Menifield wins by SUB	6%	10.50	✗ lost
Alonzo Menifield significant strikes over 49.5	24%	2.25	—
Total significant strikes over 119.5	22%	2.40	—
Alonzo Menifield wins by Submission in R2	2%	29.00	✗ lost
Alonzo Menifield wins by Submission in R1	3%	19.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	8%	6.50	✗ lost
Alonzo Menifield wins by KO/TKO in R3	2%	21.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	3%	19.00	✗ lost
Alonzo Menifield significant strikes over 59.5	18%	2.63	—
Zhang Mingyang significant strikes over 69.5	18%	2.70	—
Fight ends by Submission in R3	1%	34.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	4%	11.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 129.5	17%	2.55	—
Alonzo Menifield wins by Submission in R3	1%	41.00	✗ lost
Zhang Mingyang wins by Submission in R2 or R3	1%	34.00	✗ lost
Alonzo Menifield significant strikes over 69.5	12%	3.10	—
Zhang Mingyang wins by Submission in R2	1%	46.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 139.5	11%	2.75	—
Zhang Mingyang significant strikes over 79.5	10%	3.10	—
Zhang Mingyang wins by SUB	2%	13.00	✗ lost
Zhang Mingyang wins by Submission in R1 or R2	2%	14.00	✗ lost
Alonzo Menifield significant strikes over 79.5	7%	3.60	—
Zhang Mingyang wins by Submission in R1	1%	19.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 149.5	6%	3.00	—
Zhang Mingyang significant strikes over 89.5	2%	3.75	—
Alonzo Menifield significant strikes over 89.5	1%	4.33	—
Total knockdowns over 0.5	2%	1.24	—
Total significant strikes over 159.5	1%	3.25	—

Sergei Pavlovich

20-3-0

Winner

Sergei Pavlovich

KO/TKO · R1

✓ predicted

Tallison Teixeira

9-1-0

▼

Model Prediction

Sergei Pavlovich ✓ won 71%

KO 47%· Sub 5%· Dec 19%

Tallison Teixeira 29%

KO 18%· Sub 3%· Dec 8%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Sergei Pavlovich wins	71%	1.15	✓ predicted
Method Sergei Pavlovich wins by KO/TKO	47%	1.43	✓ predicted
Finish round Finish in Round 1	36%	—	✓ predicted

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Total takedowns over 2.5 value	26%	7.25	—
Total takedowns over 1.5 value	45%	4.00	—
Tallison Teixeira takedowns over 1.5 value	24%	7.50	—
Tallison Teixeira wins by KO or Decision value	26%	6.25	✗ lost
Tallison Teixeira wins value	29%	5.50	✗ lost
Tallison Teixeira wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3 value	9%	17.00	✗ lost
Tallison Teixeira wins by KO/TKO in R2	6%	26.00	✗ lost
Tallison Teixeira wins by KO/TKO value	18%	8.50	✗ lost
Tallison Teixeira wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2 value	15%	10.00	✗ lost
Tallison Teixeira takedowns over 0.5 value	47%	3.00	—
Tallison Teixeira wins by KO or Sub value	21%	6.50	✗ lost
Tallison Teixeira wins in R3+ or by Decision value	11%	12.00	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 0.5 value	67%	2.02	—
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision value	40%	3.35	✗ lost
Tallison Teixeira wins by DEC	8%	17.00	✗ lost
Sergei Pavlovich wins in R3+ or by Decision value	28%	4.50	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision value	26%	4.80	✗ lost
Sergei Pavlovich wins by Submission in R3	1%	126.00	✗ lost
Sergei Pavlovich wins by Sub or Decision	24%	5.10	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	26%	4.65	✗ lost
Sergei Pavlovich wins by DEC	19%	6.50	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 2 value	64%	1.86	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	13%	9.00	✗ lost
Tallison Teixeira wins by KO/TKO in R1	9%	13.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	12%	10.00	✗ lost
Tallison Teixeira wins by Sub or Decision	11%	10.50	✗ lost
Tallison Teixeira wins by KO/TKO in R3	3%	34.00	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	67%	1.53	✓ won
Sergei Pavlovich wins by KO/TKO in R3	8%	12.00	✗ lost
Tallison Teixeira wins by finish in Round 1	10%	9.50	✗ lost
Tallison Teixeira significant strikes over 29.5	52%	1.91	—
Tallison Teixeira significant strikes over 19.5	66%	1.45	—
Sergei Pavlovich wins by Submission in R2 or R3	3%	34.00	✗ lost
Sergei Pavlovich wins by Submission in R2	2%	51.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	24%	3.80	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	1%	61.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	21%	4.20	✗ lost
Sergei Pavlovich wins by SUB	6%	16.00	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	74%	1.17	✓ won
Sergei Pavlovich wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	24%	3.60	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	3%	31.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 49.5	54%	1.57	—
Sergei Pavlovich significant strikes over 19.5	63%	1.33	—
Fight ends by Submission	8%	10.00	✗ lost
Sergei Pavlovich wins	71%	1.15	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO	65%	1.25	✓ won
Sergei Pavlovich wins by Submission in R1 or R2	5%	18.00	✗ lost
Tallison Teixeira wins by finish in Round 1	10%	7.75	✗ lost
Sergei Pavlovich takedowns over 0.5	22%	3.60	—
Total significant strikes over 59.5	45%	1.76	—
Finish before Round 3	61%	1.30	✓ won
Sergei Pavlovich wins by KO or Decision	66%	1.20	✓ won
Over 2.5 rounds	33%	2.37	✗ lost
Sergei Pavlovich significant strikes over 29.5	46%	1.67	—
Sergei Pavlovich wins by KO/TKO in R2	15%	4.70	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 69.5	36%	1.97	—
Sergei Pavlovich wins by KO or Sub	52%	1.34	✓ won
Sergei Pavlovich wins by KO/TKO	47%	1.43	✓ won
Tallison Teixeira significant strikes over 39.5	28%	2.40	—
Tallison Teixeira wins by Submission in R2	1%	71.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	4%	16.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	32%	2.03	✓ won
Sergei Pavlovich takedowns over 1.5	8%	8.00	—
Sergei Pavlovich wins by Submission in R1	3%	23.00	✗ lost
Sergei Pavlovich wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	39%	1.58	✓ won
Tallison Teixeira wins by SUB	3%	21.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 79.5	27%	2.18	—
Sergei Pavlovich significant strikes over 39.5	28%	2.00	—
Tallison Teixeira significant strikes over 49.5	19%	2.88	—
Tallison Teixeira wins by Submission in R1 or R2	2%	23.00	✗ lost
Sergei Pavlovich wins by KO/TKO in R1	23%	2.30	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 89.5	22%	2.40	—
Sergei Pavlovich significant strikes over 49.5	21%	2.50	—
Sergei Pavlovich significant strikes over 59.5	16%	3.20	—
Tallison Teixeira wins by Submission in R1	1%	34.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 99.5	18%	2.65	—
Tallison Teixeira significant strikes over 59.5	13%	3.60	—
Sergei Pavlovich significant strikes over 69.5	11%	4.00	—
Total significant strikes over 109.5	14%	2.95	—
Sergei Pavlovich wins by finish in Round 1	26%	1.48	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 119.5	10%	3.35	—
Tallison Teixeira significant strikes over 69.5	6%	4.50	—
Sergei Pavlovich significant strikes over 79.5	6%	5.00	—
Total significant strikes over 129.5	6%	3.75	—
Total significant strikes over 139.5	2%	4.30	—
Total knockdowns over 0.5	2%	1.12	—

Kai Asakura

21-6-0

Winner

Kai Asakura

KO/TKO · R1

✓ predicted

Cameron Smotherman

12-6-0

▼

Model Prediction

Kai Asakura ✓ won 52%

KO 11%· Sub 6%· Dec 35%

Cameron Smotherman 48%

KO 19%· Sub 4%· Dec 25%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Kai Asakura wins	52%	1.34	✓ predicted
Method Kai Asakura wins by Decision value	35%	3.50	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	61%	2.41	missed

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Total takedowns over 2.5 value	24%	7.25	—
Cameron Smotherman wins by DEC value	25%	6.75	✗ lost
Cameron Smotherman wins in R3+ or by Decision value	32%	5.25	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 1.5 value	41%	4.10	—
Cameron Smotherman wins by KO or Decision value	44%	3.60	✗ lost
Cameron Smotherman wins value	48%	3.27	✗ lost
Cameron Smotherman wins by Sub or Decision value	29%	5.40	✗ lost
Kai Asakura takedowns over 0.5 value	38%	4.00	—
Fight goes to decision	61%	2.41	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 0.5 value	64%	2.25	—
Fight goes to Decision value	61%	2.35	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds value	64%	2.10	✗ lost
Cameron Smotherman wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2 value	16%	8.50	✗ lost
Kai Asakura takedowns over 1.5 value	18%	7.50	—
Cameron Smotherman wins by KO/TKO in R1	9%	14.00	✗ lost
Cameron Smotherman takedowns over 0.5 value	37%	3.50	—
Cameron Smotherman takedowns over 1.5 value	17%	7.50	—
Kai Asakura wins by Sub or Decision value	41%	3.05	✗ lost
Kai Asakura wins by DEC value	35%	3.50	✗ lost
Cameron Smotherman wins by KO/TKO	19%	6.50	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 3 value	68%	1.75	✗ lost
Cameron Smotherman wins by KO or Sub value	22%	5.25	✗ lost
Cameron Smotherman wins by finish in Round 1	11%	9.50	✗ lost
Cameron Smotherman wins by KO/TKO in R2	6%	17.00	✗ lost
Kai Asakura wins by Submission in R1 or R2	5%	21.00	✗ lost
Kai Asakura wins by Submission in R1	3%	34.00	✗ lost
Cameron Smotherman wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	10%	10.00	✗ lost
Cameron Smotherman significant strikes over 29.5	72%	1.33	—
Cameron Smotherman significant strikes over 19.5	81%	1.17	—
Kai Asakura wins by SUB	6%	16.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	9%	9.75	✗ lost
Kai Asakura wins in R3+ or by Decision	35%	2.55	✗ lost
Cameron Smotherman significant strikes over 39.5	58%	1.53	—
Fight ends by Submission in R1	5%	19.00	✗ lost
Kai Asakura wins by Submission in R2	2%	46.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 49.5	74%	1.18	—
Total significant strikes over 59.5	68%	1.26	—
Kai Asakura wins by Submission in R2 or R3	3%	29.00	✗ lost
Cameron Smotherman significant strikes over 49.5	45%	1.83	—
Kai Asakura significant strikes over 19.5	74%	1.11	—
Total significant strikes over 69.5	62%	1.33	—
Total significant strikes over 79.5	56%	1.43	—
Total significant strikes over 89.5	50%	1.53	—
Cameron Smotherman significant strikes over 59.5	35%	2.20	—
Cameron Smotherman wins by finish in Round 1	11%	6.75	✗ lost
Cameron Smotherman wins by finish in Round 2	7%	10.00	✗ lost
Cameron Smotherman wins by Submission in R1	2%	41.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	3%	23.00	✗ lost
Cameron Smotherman wins by KO/TKO in R3	3%	21.00	✗ lost
Kai Asakura wins	52%	1.34	✓ won
Kai Asakura significant strikes over 29.5	57%	1.22	—
Cameron Smotherman wins by Submission in R1 or R2	3%	23.00	✗ lost
Cameron Smotherman significant strikes over 69.5	24%	2.75	—
Total significant strikes over 99.5	40%	1.64	—
Kai Asakura wins by KO or Decision	46%	1.41	✓ won
Finish before Round 2	20%	3.35	✓ won
Cameron Smotherman wins by SUB	4%	18.00	✗ lost
Kai Asakura wins by Submission in R3	1%	61.00	✗ lost
Kai Asakura significant strikes over 39.5	44%	1.40	—
Fight ends before decision	39%	1.52	✓ won
Under 2.5 rounds	36%	1.66	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	15%	3.80	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 109.5	30%	1.78	—
Cameron Smotherman wins by Submission in R2	1%	46.00	✗ lost
Kai Asakura significant strikes over 49.5	33%	1.62	—
Cameron Smotherman significant strikes over 79.5	15%	3.50	—
Fight ends by KO/TKO	30%	1.74	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission in R3	2%	31.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	10%	5.10	✗ lost
Kai Asakura significant strikes over 59.5	23%	1.91	—
Total significant strikes over 119.5	22%	1.94	—
Cameron Smotherman wins by Submission in R3	1%	61.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	5%	6.75	✗ lost
Kai Asakura wins by KO or Sub	17%	2.05	✓ won
Kai Asakura significant strikes over 69.5	15%	2.30	—
Total significant strikes over 129.5	15%	2.12	—
Cameron Smotherman significant strikes over 89.5	6%	4.50	—
Kai Asakura wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	9%	2.90	✓ won
Kai Asakura wins by KO/TKO in R1	6%	4.75	✓ won
Kai Asakura wins by KO/TKO	11%	2.25	✓ won
Kai Asakura wins by KO/TKO in R2	4%	6.50	✗ lost
Kai Asakura wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	6%	4.00	✗ lost
Kai Asakura wins by finish in Round 1	8%	2.60	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 139.5	9%	2.35	—
Kai Asakura significant strikes over 79.5	7%	2.80	—
Kai Asakura wins by KO/TKO in R3	2%	8.75	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 149.5	2%	2.70	—
Total knockdowns over 0.5	2%	1.44	—

Jake Matthews

22-8-0

Winner

Jake Matthews

Decision (U) · R3

✓ predicted

Carlston Harris

19-8-0

▼

Model Prediction

Jake Matthews ✓ won 74%

KO 16%· Sub 7%· Dec 51%

Carlston Harris 26%

KO 7%· Sub 7%· Dec 12%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Jake Matthews wins	74%	1.18	✓ predicted
Method Jake Matthews wins by Decision value	51%	2.95	✓ predicted
Finish round Goes the distance	63%	2.42	✓ predicted

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Jake Matthews wins by Decision value	51%	3.00	✓ won
Fight goes to decision value	63%	2.42	✓ won
Jake Matthews wins by DEC value	51%	2.95	✓ won
Fight goes to Decision value	63%	2.35	✓ won
Carlston Harris wins in R3+ or by Decision value	17%	8.25	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds value	64%	2.10	✓ won
Carlston Harris wins by DEC	12%	11.00	✗ lost
Carlston Harris wins by KO or Decision	19%	7.00	✗ lost
Carlston Harris wins value	26%	4.95	✗ lost
Carlston Harris wins by Sub or Decision	19%	6.00	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 3 value	66%	1.76	✓ won
Carlston Harris wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	6%	18.00	✗ lost
Jake Matthews wins by Sub or Decision value	57%	1.91	✓ won
Carlston Harris wins by KO/TKO in R1	4%	26.00	✗ lost
Jake Matthews wins by KO or Decision	67%	1.50	✓ won
Carlston Harris wins by KO/TKO in R2	2%	41.00	✗ lost
Carlston Harris wins by KO/TKO	7%	14.00	✗ lost
Carlston Harris wins by KO or Sub	14%	6.75	✗ lost
Carlston Harris wins by Submission in R1 or R2	7%	13.00	✗ lost
Jake Matthews wins	74%	1.18	✓ won
Total takedowns over 0.5	77%	1.12	—
Jake Matthews significant strikes over 19.5	76%	1.14	—
Carlston Harris significant strikes over 19.5	64%	1.30	—
Carlston Harris significant strikes over 29.5	51%	1.62	—
Carlston Harris wins by finish in Round 1	8%	10.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 49.5	63%	1.30	—
Carlston Harris wins by Submission in R1	4%	19.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 59.5	55%	1.41	—
Carlston Harris wins by Submission in R2	2%	31.00	✗ lost
Carlston Harris wins by SUB	7%	10.50	✗ lost
Jake Matthews significant strikes over 29.5	57%	1.33	—
Carlston Harris wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	3%	26.00	✗ lost
Finish before Round 2	22%	3.32	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	13%	5.25	✗ lost
Carlston Harris wins by finish in Round 1	8%	8.50	✗ lost
Carlston Harris significant strikes over 39.5	35%	2.00	—
Total significant strikes over 69.5	46%	1.52	—
Jake Matthews takedowns over 0.5	46%	1.45	—
Jake Matthews significant strikes over 39.5	42%	1.53	—
Total takedowns over 1.5	49%	1.29	—
Carlston Harris takedowns over 0.5	40%	1.53	—
Under 2.5 rounds	36%	1.66	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	13%	4.60	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	23%	2.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	8%	7.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	8%	7.25	✗ lost
Jake Matthews wins by KO/TKO in R1	9%	6.00	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	37%	1.52	✗ lost
Jake Matthews wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	15%	3.75	✗ lost
Carlston Harris significant strikes over 49.5	22%	2.50	—
Jake Matthews significant strikes over 49.5	31%	1.72	—
Total significant strikes over 79.5	31%	1.65	—
Carlston Harris significant strikes over 59.5	15%	3.40	—
Fight ends by Submission	14%	3.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	5%	10.00	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 2.5	31%	1.49	—
Jake Matthews wins by KO/TKO	16%	2.85	✗ lost
Jake Matthews wins by KO/TKO in R2	6%	8.25	✗ lost
Jake Matthews takedowns over 1.5	24%	1.91	—
Jake Matthews wins by KO or Sub	23%	1.87	✗ lost
Carlston Harris takedowns over 1.5	21%	2.00	—
Total significant strikes over 89.5	23%	1.81	—
Total significant strikes over 99.5	20%	2.00	—
Jake Matthews significant strikes over 59.5	19%	2.10	—
Jake Matthews wins by Submission in R1 or R2	6%	6.25	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 109.5	17%	2.20	—
Jake Matthews wins by Submission in R1	4%	9.75	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 119.5	15%	2.50	—
Carlston Harris significant strikes over 69.5	8%	4.50	—
Jake Matthews wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	7%	5.00	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 3.5	19%	1.79	—
Jake Matthews wins by SUB	7%	4.90	✗ lost
Jake Matthews takedowns over 2.5	14%	2.40	—
Total significant strikes over 129.5	12%	2.80	—
Jake Matthews wins by finish in Round 1	13%	2.40	✗ lost
Jake Matthews wins by Submission in R2	2%	13.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 139.5	9%	3.25	—
Carlston Harris takedowns over 2.5	10%	2.50	—
Jake Matthews wins by Submission in R2 or R3	3%	8.25	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 149.5	6%	3.70	—
Jake Matthews significant strikes over 69.5	8%	2.50	—
Total takedowns over 4.5	9%	2.25	—
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	3%	5.90	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	2%	9.25	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	1%	12.50	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 159.5	3%	4.30	—
Jake Matthews wins by KO/TKO in R3	1%	10.00	✗ lost
Jake Matthews takedowns over 3.5	4%	3.25	—
Carlston Harris significant strikes over 79.5	1%	6.00	—
Total knockdowns over 0.5	2%	1.63	—