Updated 2026-11-14 12:32 AEST
8
Bouts
1
Events
New here? How to read these predictions
Win probability
Our model's estimate that a fighter wins — e.g. 72% means we'd expect them to win roughly 7 of 10 times.
Confidence interval (CI)
The range the true probability likely falls in. Wider = less certain. A pick'em fight has a wide band; a clear favourite a narrow one.
Edge
How much higher our probability is than the bookmaker's implied odds. Positive edge = we think it's underpriced.
EV (expected value)
Average return if you placed the bet many times. +15% EV means about 15c profit per $1 staked, on average.
Risk tiers
Conservative leans to safe favourites, Balanced blends, Aggressive chases bigger-odds longshots. Pick what suits you.
Edge badges
Strong / Solid / Slight edge rank how much value the model sees — and how big a stake it suggests. They're not a promise the bet wins.

Tap any fight row to open the full model breakdown. New to the model itself? How it works · FAQ.

Benoit Saint Denis
Denis
Main Event
77%
Model Leans Salkilld
2027-02-07
Quillan Salkilld
Salkilld
UFC Fight Night: Salkilld vs. Saint Denis
2027
07
FEB
⚡ Next Event

UFC Fight Night: Salkilld vs. Saint Denis

Afterpay Arena, Sydney, Australia
8
Bouts
Benoit Saint Denis
Benoit Saint Denis
France 17-3-0 MMA Southpaw 1 loss
23% | 77%
Lightweight 5 rds
⏱ Sun 7 Feb · 8:00 AM AEST
Quillan Salkilld
Quillan Salkilld
Australia 12-1-0 MMA Orthodox 6-fight win streak
Model Favourite
Quillan Salkilld
77.5 %
Confidence · Medium · limited UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Quillan Salkilld eats 2.1 fewer strikes per minute
  • Quillan Salkilld rides a 6-fight longer win streak
  • Quillan Salkilld hits 0.10 more takedowns per minute
  • the case against Benoit Saint Denis lands 1.2 more sig strikes per minute
  • Quillan Salkilld rides a 6-fight win streak (Benoit Saint Denis: 0)
Method Breakdown
Denis Salkilld
KO/TKO 9.3
34.5
Submission 7.3
24.8
Decision 5.9
18.3
Finish Distribution · By Round
31
R1
22
R2
13
R3
4
R4
6
R5
24
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Denis Salkilld
Str/min 5.6
4.4
Sig Acc 58%
58%
Str Def 42%
50%
TD/min 0.28
0.38
Finish 92%
83%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
29
41
DenisSalkilld
Combined 73 16–159
Takedowns
0.8
1.1
DenisSalkilld
Combined 2.5 0.0–5.3
Fight length
Expected 2.4 of 5 rounds 24% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Salkilld

    Quillan Salkilld eats 2.1 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Salkilld

    Quillan Salkilld rides a 6-fight longer win streak

  • 03 Striking volume favours Denis

    Benoit Saint Denis lands 1.2 more sig strikes per minute

  • 04 Takedown volume favours Salkilld

    Quillan Salkilld hits 0.10 more takedowns per minute

  • 05 Finish rate favours Denis

    Benoit Saint Denis finishes 92% of fights, Quillan Salkilld 83%

  • 06 Loss streak favours Salkilld

    Benoit Saint Denis is on a losing run 1 fight(s) longer than Quillan Salkilld

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
Sportsbet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Robert Whittaker
Robert Whittaker
Australia 27-9-0 Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 1 win
59% | 41%
Light Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 7 Feb · 8:00 AM AEST
Bogdan Guskov
Bogdan Guskov
Uzbekistan 18-3-0 MMA Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
Model Favourite
Robert Whittaker
58.8 %
Confidence · Medium · limited UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Robert Whittaker lands 0.8 more sig strikes per minute
  • Robert Whittaker rides a 1-fight longer win streak
  • Robert Whittaker stops 80% of takedown attempts, Bogdan Guskov 55%
  • the case against Bogdan Guskov finishes 86% of fights, Robert Whittaker 44%
  • Robert Whittaker has never been finished in 25 fights
Method Breakdown
Whittaker Guskov
KO/TKO 22.7
24.7
Submission 7.2
5.5
Decision 28.8
11.0
Finish Distribution · By Round
31
R1
19
R2
10
R3
40
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Whittaker Guskov
Str/min 4.4
3.6
Sig Acc 43%
57%
Str Def 59%
47%
TD/min 0.05
0.00
Finish 44%
86%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
38
35
WhittakerGuskov
Combined 74 18–134
Takedowns
0.6
0.0
WhittakerGuskov
Combined 0.7 0.0–3.8
Fight length
Expected 1.9 of 3 rounds 40% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Finish rate favours Guskov

    Bogdan Guskov finishes 86% of fights, Robert Whittaker 44%

  • 02 Striking volume favours Whittaker

    Robert Whittaker lands 0.8 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Win streak favours Whittaker

    Robert Whittaker rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 04 Takedown defence favours Whittaker

    Robert Whittaker stops 80% of takedown attempts, Bogdan Guskov 55%

  • 05 KO rate favours Guskov

    Bogdan Guskov wins by knockout in 57% of fights, Robert Whittaker in 40%

  • 06 Striking accuracy favours Guskov

    Bogdan Guskov lands 57% of significant strikes thrown, Robert Whittaker 43%

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
Sportsbet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
JY
JooSang Yoo
South Korea 9-1-0 Freestyle Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
25% | 75%
Featherweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 7 Feb · 8:00 AM AEST
Marwan Rahiki
Marwan Rahiki
Morocco 9-0-0 Striker 1 loss
Model Favourite
Marwan Rahiki
74.8 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Marwan Rahiki lands 2.9 more sig strikes per minute
  • Marwan Rahiki has been knocked out in 0% of fights, JooSang Yoo in 33%
  • Marwan Rahiki lands 50% of significant strikes thrown, JooSang Yoo 43%
  • the case against JooSang Yoo eats 1.1 fewer strikes per minute
  • Marwan Rahiki out-volumes opponents at 6.9 sig/min vs JooSang Yoo's 4.0
Method Breakdown
Yoo Rahiki
KO/TKO 8.9
48.5
Submission 2.6
5.5
Decision 13.7
20.9
Finish Distribution · By Round
38
R1
20
R2
7
R3
35
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Yoo Rahiki
Str/min 4.0
6.9
Sig Acc 43%
50%
Str Def 53%
61%
TD/min 0.05
0.04
Finish 64%
67%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
29
41
YooRahiki
Combined 79 16–153
Takedowns
0.4
0.1
YooRahiki
Combined 1.3 0.0–4.0
Fight length
Expected 1.7 of 3 rounds 35% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Yoo

    JooSang Yoo eats 1.1 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Rahiki

    Marwan Rahiki lands 2.9 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Takedown defence favours Yoo

    JooSang Yoo stops 67% of takedown attempts, Marwan Rahiki 17%

  • 04 KO durability favours Rahiki

    Marwan Rahiki has been knocked out in 0% of fights, JooSang Yoo in 33%

  • 05 Striking accuracy favours Rahiki

    Marwan Rahiki lands 50% of significant strikes thrown, JooSang Yoo 43%

  • 06 Loss streak favours Rahiki

    JooSang Yoo is on a losing run 1 fight(s) longer than Marwan Rahiki

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
Sportsbet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Joanderson Brito
Joanderson Brito
Brazil 18-5-1 Striker Orthodox 3-fight win streak
85% | 15%
Featherweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 7 Feb · 8:00 AM AEST
Kaan Ofli
Kaan Ofli
Australia 14-4-1 Freestyle Orthodox 3-fight win streak
Model Favourite
Joanderson Brito
85.3 %
Confidence · Medium · limited UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Joanderson Brito eats 0.8 fewer strikes per minute
  • Joanderson Brito stops 58% of takedown attempts, Kaan Ofli 0%
  • Joanderson Brito hits 0.18 more takedowns per minute
  • the case against Kaan Ofli wins by submission in 40% of fights, Joanderson Brito in 27%
  • Joanderson Brito has never been finished in 11 fights
Method Breakdown
Brito Ofli
KO/TKO 27.6
3.7
Submission 22.7
3.4
Decision 35.0
7.6
Finish Distribution · By Round
30
R1
18
R2
9
R3
43
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Brito Ofli
Str/min 2.3
2.5
Sig Acc 51%
48%
Str Def 43%
57%
TD/min 0.20
0.02
Finish 64%
60%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
31
19
BritoOfli
Combined 57 14–115
Takedowns
1.4
0.1
BritoOfli
Combined 1.8 0.0–5.4
Fight length
Expected 1.9 of 3 rounds 43% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Brito

    Joanderson Brito eats 0.8 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Takedown defence favours Brito

    Joanderson Brito stops 58% of takedown attempts, Kaan Ofli 0%

  • 03 Takedown volume favours Brito

    Joanderson Brito hits 0.18 more takedowns per minute

  • 04 KO rate favours Brito

    Joanderson Brito wins by knockout in 36% of fights, Kaan Ofli in 20%

  • 05 Submission rate favours Ofli

    Kaan Ofli wins by submission in 40% of fights, Joanderson Brito in 27%

  • 06 Striking defence favours Ofli

    Kaan Ofli avoids 57% of strikes thrown at them, Joanderson Brito 43%

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
Sportsbet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
GM
George Mangos
Switch Stance
55% | 45%
Featherweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 7 Feb · 8:00 AM AEST
DC
Dagiisuren Chagnaadorj
Model Favourite
George Mangos
55.0 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • George Mangos is favoured at 55% — fight-history features sparse
  • George Mangos has no UFC fights — too little to compare fight stats, so this pick leans on age, size and pre-UFC record
Method Breakdown
Mangos Chagnaadorj
KO/TKO 15.5
11.8
Submission 12.2
9.1
Decision 27.3
24.2
Finish Distribution · By Round
29
R1
12
R2
8
R3
51
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Mangos Chagnaadorj
Str/min 0.0
0.0
Sig Acc 0%
0%
Str Def 0%
0%
TD/min 0.00
0.00
Finish 0%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
24
23
MangosChagnaadorj
Combined 68 14–140
Takedowns
0.4
0.1
MangosChagnaadorj
Combined 2.1 0.0–5.2
Fight length
Expected 2.1 of 3 rounds 51% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Model lean favours Mangos

    George Mangos is favoured at 55% — fight-history features sparse

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
Sportsbet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
RT
Ryo Tajima
51% | 49%
Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 7 Feb · 8:00 AM AEST
RD
Rabindra Dhant
Model Favourite
Ryo Tajima
51.3 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Ryo Tajima has no UFC fights — too little to compare fight stats, so this pick leans on age, size and pre-UFC record
Method Breakdown
Tajima Dhant
KO/TKO 15.0
15.2
Submission 12.4
11.0
Decision 23.8
22.6
Finish Distribution · By Round
28
R1
16
R2
10
R3
46
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Tajima Dhant
Str/min 0.0
0.0
Sig Acc 0%
0%
Str Def 0%
0%
TD/min 0.00
0.00
Finish 0%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
24
25
TajimaDhant
Combined 67 15–132
Takedowns
0.4
0.1
TajimaDhant
Combined 2.1 0.0–5.2
Fight length
Expected 2.0 of 3 rounds 46% chance it goes the distance
Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
Sportsbet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
JI
Jiniushiyue
Southpaw
41% | 59%
Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 7 Feb · 5:00 AM AEST
TS
Takaya Suzuki
Model Favourite
Takaya Suzuki
58.6 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Takaya Suzuki is favoured at 59% — fight-history features sparse
  • Jiniushiyue has no UFC fights — too little to compare fight stats, so this pick leans on age, size and pre-UFC record
Method Breakdown
Jiniushiyue Suzuki
KO/TKO 8.3
17.2
Submission 11.4
12.5
Decision 21.7
28.8
Finish Distribution · By Round
27
R1
15
R2
8
R3
51
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Jiniushiyue Suzuki
Str/min 0.0
0.0
Sig Acc 0%
0%
Str Def 0%
0%
TD/min 0.00
0.00
Finish 0%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
23
24
JiniushiyueSuzuki
Combined 55 15–131
Takedowns
0.4
0.1
JiniushiyueSuzuki
Combined 2.2 0.0–5.3
Fight length
Expected 2.1 of 3 rounds 51% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Model lean favours Suzuki

    Takaya Suzuki is favoured at 59% — fight-history features sparse

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
Sportsbet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
MB
Meng Bo
42% | 58%
Women's Strawweight 3 rds
BP
BoHyun Park
Model Favourite
BoHyun Park
58.0 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • BoHyun Park is favoured at 58% — fight-history features sparse
  • Meng Bo has no UFC fights — too little to compare fight stats, so this pick leans on age, size and pre-UFC record
Method Breakdown
Bo Park
KO/TKO 7.2
13.1
Submission 10.0
13.1
Decision 24.8
31.8
Finish Distribution · By Round
23
R1
13
R2
7
R3
57
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Bo Park
Str/min 0.0
0.0
Sig Acc 0%
0%
Str Def 0%
0%
TD/min 0.00
0.00
Finish 0%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
27
29
BoPark
Combined 67 15–149
Takedowns
0.4
0.2
BoPark
Combined 2.1 0.0–4.9
Fight length
Expected 2.2 of 3 rounds 57% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Model lean favours Park

    BoHyun Park is favoured at 58% — fight-history features sparse

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
Sportsbet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.