Updated 2026-10-06 11:07 AEST
9
Bouts
0
Events
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Win probability
Our model's estimate that a fighter wins — e.g. 72% means we'd expect them to win roughly 7 of 10 times.
Confidence interval (CI)
The range the true probability likely falls in. Wider = less certain. A pick'em fight has a wide band; a clear favourite a narrow one.
Edge
How much higher our probability is than the bookmaker's implied odds. Positive edge = we think it's underpriced.
EV (expected value)
Average return if you placed the bet many times. +15% EV means about 15c profit per $1 staked, on average.
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Conservative leans to safe favourites, Balanced blends, Aggressive chases bigger-odds longshots. Pick what suits you.
Edge badges
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Jiri Prochazka
Prochazka
Main Event
79%
Model Leans Stirling
2026-11-21
Navajo Stirling
Stirling
UFC Fight Night: Procházka vs. Stirling
2026
21
NOV
⚡ Next Event

UFC Fight Night: Procházka vs. Stirling

ABHA Arena, Doha, Qatar
9
Bouts
Jiri Prochazka
Jiri Prochazka
32-6-1 Karate Orthodox 1 loss
21% | 79%
Light Heavyweight 5 rds
⏱ Sun 22 Nov · 3:00 AM AEST
Navajo Stirling
Navajo Stirling
New Zealand 9-0-0 Kickboxer Orthodox 6-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Navajo Stirling
78.8 %
050100
CI · 49 – 98 · σ 0.060 · High
Why this pick
  • Navajo Stirling eats 3.2 fewer strikes per minute
  • Navajo Stirling rides a 6-fight longer win streak
  • Navajo Stirling lands 0.8 more sig strikes per minute
  • the case against Jiri Prochazka finishes 50% more of their wins
  • Navajo Stirling rides a 6-fight win streak (Jiri Prochazka: 0)
Method Breakdown
Prochazka Stirling
KO/TKO 18.6
61.4
Submission 2.4
1.5
Decision 0.1
16.0
Finish Distribution · By Round
44
R1
16
R2
9
R3
9
R4
6
R5
16
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Prochazka Stirling
Str/min 5.6
6.4
Sig Acc 56%
54%
Str Def 45%
59%
TD/min 0.03
0.06
Finish 100%
50%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
32
56
ProchazkaStirling
Combined 97 19–217
Takedowns
0.0
0.0
ProchazkaStirling
Combined 0.9 0.0–3.6
Fight length
Expected 2.1 of 5 rounds 16% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Stirling

    Navajo Stirling eats 3.2 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Stirling

    Navajo Stirling rides a 6-fight longer win streak

  • 03 Finish rate favours Prochazka

    Jiri Prochazka finishes 50% more of their wins

  • 04 Striking volume favours Stirling

    Navajo Stirling lands 0.8 more sig strikes per minute

  • 05 KO rate favours Prochazka

    Jiri Prochazka finishes by KO 39% more often

  • 06 KO durability favours Stirling

    Navajo Stirling has been KO'd 33% less often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Aljamain Sterling
Aljamain Sterling
United States 25-5-0 Kickboxer Orthodox 2-fight win streak
35% | 65%
Featherweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 22 Nov · 3:00 AM AEST
Kevin Vallejos
Kevin Vallejos
Argentina 17-1-0 Striker Switch Stance 4-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Kevin Vallejos
64.6 %
050100
CI · 35 – 95 · σ 0.067 · High
Why this pick
  • Kevin Vallejos lands 1.5 more sig strikes per minute
  • Kevin Vallejos rides a 2-fight longer win streak
  • Kevin Vallejos finishes by KO 57% more often
  • the case against Aljamain Sterling eats 1.5 fewer strikes per minute
  • Kevin Vallejos rides a 4-fight win streak (Aljamain Sterling: 2)
Method Breakdown
Sterling Vallejos
KO/TKO 0.1
34.2
Submission 13.0
2.6
Decision 22.4
27.8
Finish Distribution · By Round
23
R1
15
R2
9
R3
50
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Sterling Vallejos
Str/min 4.2
5.7
Sig Acc 54%
47%
Str Def 61%
59%
TD/min 0.18
0.07
Finish 36%
75%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
46
43
SterlingVallejos
Combined 97 24–143
Takedowns
1.4
0.0
SterlingVallejos
Combined 2.2 0.0–4.7
Fight length
Expected 2.1 of 3 rounds 51% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Sterling

    Aljamain Sterling eats 1.5 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Vallejos

    Kevin Vallejos lands 1.5 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Win streak favours Vallejos

    Kevin Vallejos rides a 2-fight longer win streak

  • 04 KO rate favours Vallejos

    Kevin Vallejos finishes by KO 57% more often

  • 05 Finish rate favours Vallejos

    Kevin Vallejos finishes 39% more of their wins

  • 06 Takedown defence favours Vallejos

    Kevin Vallejos stuffs 38% more incoming takedowns

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Brian Ortega
Brian Ortega
United States 16-5-0 Jiu-Jitsu Switch Stance 2-fight loss streak
61% | 39%
Lightweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 22 Nov · 3:00 AM AEST
Dan Hooker
Dan Hooker
New Zealand 24-14-0 MMA Switch Stance 3-fight loss streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Brian Ortega
61.4 %
050100
CI · 31 – 91 · σ 0.073 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Brian Ortega taps opponents 21% more often
  • the case against Dan Hooker eats 1.4 fewer strikes per minute
  • Dan Hooker has never been finished in 25 fights
Method Breakdown
Ortega Hooker
KO/TKO 19.2
20.4
Submission 10.7
1.9
Decision 31.5
16.3
Finish Distribution · By Round
29
R1
17
R2
6
R3
48
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Ortega Hooker
Str/min 3.8
4.8
Sig Acc 37%
49%
Str Def 49%
49%
TD/min 0.06
0.04
Finish 64%
64%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
47
46
OrtegaHooker
Combined 91 18–166
Takedowns
0.8
0.1
OrtegaHooker
Combined 0.9 0.0–4.0
Fight length
Expected 2.0 of 3 rounds 48% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Hooker

    Dan Hooker eats 1.4 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Hooker

    Dan Hooker lands 1.0 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Takedown defence favours Hooker

    Dan Hooker stuffs 23% more incoming takedowns

  • 04 Submission rate favours Ortega

    Brian Ortega taps opponents 21% more often

  • 05 KO rate favours Hooker

    Dan Hooker finishes by KO 12% more often

  • 06 Striking accuracy favours Hooker

    Dan Hooker is 11% more accurate on the feet

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Jared Cannonier
Jared Cannonier
United States 18-9-0 Striker Switch Stance 2-fight loss streak
4% | 96%
Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 22 Nov · 3:00 AM AEST
Ikram Aliskerov
Ikram Aliskerov
Russia 17-2-0 Sambo Southpaw 3-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Ikram Aliskerov
95.8 %
050100
CI · 68 – 98 · σ 0.054 · High
Why this pick
  • Ikram Aliskerov rides a 3-fight longer win streak
  • Ikram Aliskerov eats 0.6 fewer strikes per minute
  • Ikram Aliskerov lands 1.4 more sig strikes per minute
  • Ikram Aliskerov rides a 3-fight win streak (Jared Cannonier: 0)
Method Breakdown
Cannonier Aliskerov
KO/TKO 2.1
35.6
Submission 0.3
15.2
Decision 1.8
44.9
Finish Distribution · By Round
27
R1
18
R2
8
R3
47
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Cannonier Aliskerov
Str/min 4.2
5.7
Sig Acc 49%
61%
Str Def 56%
46%
TD/min 0.05
0.24
Finish 48%
67%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
42
51
CannonierAliskerov
Combined 85 19–174
Takedowns
0.0
1.1
CannonierAliskerov
Combined 1.6 0.0–4.6
Fight length
Expected 2.0 of 3 rounds 47% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Aliskerov

    Ikram Aliskerov rides a 3-fight longer win streak

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Aliskerov

    Ikram Aliskerov eats 0.6 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 Striking volume favours Aliskerov

    Ikram Aliskerov lands 1.4 more sig strikes per minute

  • 04 Takedown defence favours Aliskerov

    Ikram Aliskerov stuffs 35% more incoming takedowns

  • 05 Takedown volume favours Aliskerov

    Ikram Aliskerov hits 0.19 more takedowns per minute

  • 06 Finish rate favours Aliskerov

    Ikram Aliskerov finishes 19% more of their wins

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Shamil Gaziev
Shamil Gaziev
Russia 14-3-0 MMA Orthodox 1 win
30% | 70%
Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 22 Nov · 3:00 AM AEST
Tallison Teixeira
Tallison Teixeira
Brazil 9-1-0 Striker Orthodox 1 loss
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Tallison Teixeira
70.3 %
050100
CI · 40 – 98 · σ 0.062 · High
Why this pick
  • Tallison Teixeira eats 1.6 fewer strikes per minute
  • Tallison Teixeira lands 0.7 more sig strikes per minute
  • Tallison Teixeira is 22% more accurate on the feet
  • the case against Shamil Gaziev rides a 1-fight longer win streak
  • Shamil Gaziev KOs 86% of opponents — Tallison Teixeira has been KO'd in 50% of losses
Method Breakdown
Gaziev Teixeira
KO/TKO 18.3
48.8
Submission 1.6
3.1
Decision 9.8
18.4
Finish Distribution · By Round
54
R1
18
R2
0
R3
28
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Gaziev Teixeira
Str/min 3.0
3.7
Sig Acc 45%
67%
Str Def 45%
32%
TD/min 0.07
0.18
Finish 86%
75%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
16
35
GazievTeixeira
Combined 55 14–118
Takedowns
0.0
0.5
GazievTeixeira
Combined 1.0 0.0–4.2
Fight length
Expected 1.4 of 3 rounds 28% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Teixeira

    Tallison Teixeira eats 1.6 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Teixeira

    Tallison Teixeira lands 0.7 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Win streak favours Gaziev

    Shamil Gaziev rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 04 Striking accuracy favours Teixeira

    Tallison Teixeira is 22% more accurate on the feet

  • 05 Takedown volume favours Teixeira

    Tallison Teixeira hits 0.11 more takedowns per minute

  • 06 Finish rate favours Gaziev

    Shamil Gaziev finishes 11% more of their wins

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Jake Matthews
Jake Matthews
Australia 22-8-0 Freestyle Orthodox 1 win
59% | 41%
Welterweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 22 Nov · 12:00 AM AEST
TA
Tahir Abdullayev
Azerbaijan 20-3-0 Orthodox 1 win
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Jake Matthews
58.9 %
050100
CI · 29 – 89 · σ 0.053 · High
Why this pick
  • Jake Matthews lands 1.4 more sig strikes per minute
  • Jake Matthews taps opponents 25% more often
  • the case against Tahir Abdullayev finishes by KO 64% more often
  • Jake Matthews has a 23-fight UFC experience edge (24 vs 1)
Method Breakdown
Matthews Abdullayev
KO/TKO 9.4
14.8
Submission 13.4
5.4
Decision 36.1
20.9
Finish Distribution · By Round
23
R1
13
R2
7
R3
57
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Matthews Abdullayev
Str/min 3.4
1.9
Sig Acc 44%
32%
Str Def 61%
51%
TD/min 0.09
0.11
Finish 54%
76%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
36
20
MatthewsAbdullayev
Combined 58 17–118
Takedowns
0.2
0.1
MatthewsAbdullayev
Combined 1.7 0.0–4.2
Fight length
Expected 2.2 of 3 rounds 57% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Matthews

    Jake Matthews lands 1.4 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 KO rate favours Abdullayev

    Tahir Abdullayev finishes by KO 64% more often

  • 03 Takedown defence favours Abdullayev

    Tahir Abdullayev stuffs 33% more incoming takedowns

  • 04 Finish rate favours Abdullayev

    Tahir Abdullayev finishes 22% more of their wins

  • 05 Strikes absorbed favours Abdullayev

    Tahir Abdullayev eats 0.2 fewer strikes per minute

  • 06 Submission rate favours Matthews

    Jake Matthews taps opponents 25% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Aleksandre Topuria
Aleksandre Topuria
Germany 7-1-0 Boxing Orthodox 2-fight win streak
40% | 60%
Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 22 Nov · 12:00 AM AEST
Santiago Luna
Santiago Luna
United States 8-0-0 MMA Orthodox 1 loss
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Santiago Luna
60.3 %
050100
CI · 30 – 90 · σ 0.075 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Santiago Luna finishes 59% more of their wins
  • Santiago Luna lands 1.2 more sig strikes per minute
  • Santiago Luna finishes by KO 29% more often
  • the case against Aleksandre Topuria rides a 2-fight longer win streak
  • Santiago Luna out-volumes opponents at 4.2 sig/min vs Aleksandre Topuria's 2.9
Method Breakdown
Topuria Luna
KO/TKO 8.6
21.3
Submission 10.1
11.5
Decision 21.0
27.5
Finish Distribution · By Round
27
R1
16
R2
9
R3
49
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Topuria Luna
Str/min 2.9
4.2
Sig Acc 55%
47%
Str Def 69%
68%
TD/min 0.10
0.13
Finish 0%
59%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
27
41
TopuriaLuna
Combined 74 21–126
Takedowns
1.1
0.1
TopuriaLuna
Combined 1.8 0.0–4.7
Fight length
Expected 2.0 of 3 rounds 49% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Finish rate favours Luna

    Santiago Luna finishes 59% more of their wins

  • 02 Win streak favours Topuria

    Aleksandre Topuria rides a 2-fight longer win streak

  • 03 Striking volume favours Luna

    Santiago Luna lands 1.2 more sig strikes per minute

  • 04 Takedown defence favours Topuria

    Aleksandre Topuria stuffs 43% more incoming takedowns

  • 05 Strikes absorbed favours Topuria

    Aleksandre Topuria eats 0.2 fewer strikes per minute

  • 06 KO rate favours Luna

    Santiago Luna finishes by KO 29% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Kyoji Horiguchi
Kyoji Horiguchi
Japan 36-5-0 Orthodox 1 loss
50% | 50%
Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 22 Nov · 12:00 AM AEST
Asu Almabayev
Asu Almabayev
Kazakhstan 23-3-0 Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 3-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Asu Almabayev
50.0 %
050100
CI · 20 – 80 · σ 0.070 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Asu Almabayev rides a 3-fight longer win streak
  • Asu Almabayev taps opponents 28% more often
  • Asu Almabayev hits 0.20 more takedowns per minute
  • the case against Kyoji Horiguchi lands 1.4 more sig strikes per minute
  • Asu Almabayev rides a 3-fight win streak (Kyoji Horiguchi: 0)
Method Breakdown
Horiguchi Almabayev
KO/TKO 17.0
4.7
Submission 5.0
8.8
Decision 28.0
36.5
Finish Distribution · By Round
17
R1
11
R2
7
R3
64
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Horiguchi Almabayev
Str/min 3.6
2.3
Sig Acc 48%
51%
Str Def 64%
54%
TD/min 0.11
0.32
Finish 45%
50%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
38
29
HoriguchiAlmabayev
Combined 63 22–117
Takedowns
0.5
1.8
HoriguchiAlmabayev
Combined 2.8 0.0–5.6
Fight length
Expected 2.4 of 3 rounds 65% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Almabayev

    Asu Almabayev rides a 3-fight longer win streak

  • 02 Striking volume favours Horiguchi

    Kyoji Horiguchi lands 1.4 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Submission rate favours Almabayev

    Asu Almabayev taps opponents 28% more often

  • 04 Takedown volume favours Almabayev

    Asu Almabayev hits 0.20 more takedowns per minute

  • 05 Strikes absorbed favours Almabayev

    Asu Almabayev eats 0.1 fewer strikes per minute

  • 06 Takedown defence favours Horiguchi

    Kyoji Horiguchi stuffs 17% more incoming takedowns

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Amir Albazi
Amir Albazi
17-3-0 Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
57% | 43%
Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 22 Nov · 12:00 AM AEST
Alessandro Costa
Alessandro Costa
Brazil 15-5-0 Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 3-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Amir Albazi
57.3 %
050100
CI · 27 – 87 · σ 0.065 · High
Why this pick
  • Amir Albazi taps opponents 16% more often
  • the case against Alessandro Costa rides a 3-fight longer win streak
  • Alessandro Costa rides a 3-fight win streak (Amir Albazi: 0)
Method Breakdown
Albazi Costa
KO/TKO 15.5
17.7
Submission 21.5
5.0
Decision 20.3
20.0
Finish Distribution · By Round
35
R1
20
R2
5
R3
40
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Albazi Costa
Str/min 2.5
3.9
Sig Acc 34%
49%
Str Def 59%
54%
TD/min 0.08
0.06
Finish 43%
88%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
33
31
AlbaziCosta
Combined 67 18–132
Takedowns
0.3
0.0
AlbaziCosta
Combined 1.4 0.0–4.1
Fight length
Expected 1.8 of 3 rounds 40% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Costa

    Alessandro Costa rides a 3-fight longer win streak

  • 02 Striking volume favours Costa

    Alessandro Costa lands 1.5 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 KO rate favours Costa

    Alessandro Costa finishes by KO 61% more often

  • 04 Finish rate favours Costa

    Alessandro Costa finishes 45% more of their wins

  • 05 Takedown defence favours Costa

    Alessandro Costa stuffs 23% more incoming takedowns

  • 06 Submission rate favours Albazi

    Amir Albazi taps opponents 16% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.