Updated 2026-06-18 01:38 AEST
7
Bouts
0
Events
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Win probability
Our model's estimate that a fighter wins — e.g. 72% means we'd expect them to win roughly 7 of 10 times.
Confidence interval (CI)
The range the true probability likely falls in. Wider = less certain. A pick'em fight has a wide band; a clear favourite a narrow one.
Edge
How much higher our probability is than the bookmaker's implied odds. Positive edge = we think it's underpriced.
EV (expected value)
Average return if you placed the bet many times. +15% EV means about 15c profit per $1 staked, on average.
Risk tiers
Conservative leans to safe favourites, Balanced blends, Aggressive chases bigger-odds longshots. Pick what suits you.
Edge badges
Strong / Solid / Slight edge rank how much value the model sees — and how big a stake it suggests. They're not a promise the bet wins.

Tap any fight row to open the full model breakdown. New to the model itself? How it works · FAQ.

TB
TBA
Main Event
50%
model leans TBA
2026-07-18
OT
TBA
UFC Fight Night: Oklahoma City
2026
18
JUL
⚡ Next Event

UFC Fight Night: Oklahoma City

Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, USA
7
Bouts
TB
TBA
50% | 50%
5 rds ⏱ Sun 19 Jul · 10:00 AM AEST
OT
Opponent TBA
Breakdown ▼
⟁ This fight is on the upcoming schedule but stats and predictions aren't available yet. The matrix will compute them closer to event time.
Jared Cannonier
Jared Cannonier
United States 18-9-0 Striker Switch Stance 1 loss
11% | 89%
Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 19 Jul · 10:00 AM AEST
Christian Leroy Duncan
Christian Leroy Duncan
United Kingdom 14-2-0 MMA Switch Stance 4-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Christian Leroy Duncan
89.4 %
050100
90% CI · 59 – 98 · σ 0.082 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Christian Leroy Duncan eats 1.8 fewer strikes per minute
  • Christian Leroy Duncan rides a 4-fight longer win streak
  • Christian Leroy Duncan is 8% more accurate on the feet
  • Christian Leroy Duncan rides a 4-fight win streak (Jared Cannonier: 0)
  • Christian Leroy Duncan has never been finished in 9 fights
Method Breakdown
Cannonier Duncan
KO/TKO 3.1
27.2
Submission 1.0
6.3
Decision 6.5
55.9
Finish Distribution · By Round
18
R1
13
R2
7
R3
0
R4
0
R5
62
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Cannonier Duncan
Str/min 4.4
4.4
Sig Acc 50%
58%
Str Def 56%
53%
TD/min 0.04
0.02
Finish 50%
56%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
  • Sig strikes
    43
    58
    8–75 9–92
  • Sig strikes (combined) 97 22–152
  • Takedowns
    0.3
    0.1
    0.0–2.0 0.0–1.8
  • Takedowns (combined) 0.7 0.0–3.8
  • Knockdowns (combined) 0.0 0.0–0.0
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Duncan

    Christian Leroy Duncan eats 1.8 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Duncan

    Christian Leroy Duncan rides a 4-fight longer win streak

  • 03 Striking accuracy favours Duncan

    Christian Leroy Duncan is 8% more accurate on the feet

  • 04 Finish rate favours Duncan

    Christian Leroy Duncan finishes 6% more of their wins

  • 05 Loss streak favours Duncan

    Christian Leroy Duncan comes in on a 1-fight cleaner skid

  • 06 KO rate favours Duncan

    Christian Leroy Duncan finishes by KO 6% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Kevin Holland
Kevin Holland
United States 29-15-0 Kung Fu Orthodox 1 win
51% | 49%
Welterweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 19 Jul · 10:00 AM AEST
Jacobe Smith
Jacobe Smith
United States 12-0-0 Freestyle Southpaw 3-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Kevin Holland
51.3 %
050100
90% CI · 21 – 81 · σ 0.105 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Jacobe Smith lands 1.9 more sig strikes per minute
  • Jacobe Smith rides a 2-fight longer win streak
  • Jacobe Smith finishes 33% more of their wins
  • Kevin Holland has a 26-fight UFC experience edge (29 vs 3)
  • Jacobe Smith rides a 3-fight win streak (Kevin Holland: 1)
Method Breakdown
Holland Smith
KO/TKO 26.1
17.6
Submission 8.7
10.7
Decision 16.5
20.4
Finish Distribution · By Round
32
R1
20
R2
10
R3
0
R4
0
R5
37
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Holland Smith
Str/min 4.2
6.0
Sig Acc 50%
56%
Str Def 50%
46%
TD/min 0.06
0.26
Finish 55%
88%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
  • Sig strikes
    30
    27
    7–74 8–70
  • Sig strikes (combined) 63 19–137
  • Takedowns
    0.2
    1.6
    0.0–1.0 0.0–3.4
  • Takedowns (combined) 2.1 0.0–4.8
  • Knockdowns (combined) 0.0 0.0–0.0
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Smith

    Jacobe Smith lands 1.9 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Smith

    Jacobe Smith rides a 2-fight longer win streak

  • 03 Finish rate favours Smith

    Jacobe Smith finishes 33% more of their wins

  • 04 KO rate favours Smith

    Jacobe Smith finishes by KO 35% more often

  • 05 Strikes absorbed favours Holland

    Kevin Holland eats 0.3 fewer strikes per minute

  • 06 Takedown volume favours Smith

    Jacobe Smith hits 0.21 more takedowns per minute

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Amanda Ribas
Amanda Ribas
Brazil 13-7-0 Judo Orthodox 3-fight loss streak
28% | 72%
Women's Strawweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 19 Jul · 10:00 AM AEST
Fatima Kline
Fatima Kline
United States 9-1-0 Grappler Orthodox 3-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Fatima Kline
71.6 %
050100
90% CI · 42 – 98 · σ 0.043 · High
Why this pick
  • Fatima Kline rides a 3-fight longer win streak
  • Fatima Kline eats 0.6 fewer strikes per minute
  • Fatima Kline lands 0.5 more sig strikes per minute
  • Fatima Kline rides a 3-fight win streak (Amanda Ribas: 0)
  • Fatima Kline has never been finished in 4 fights
Method Breakdown
Ribas Kline
KO/TKO 7.4
28.0
Submission 3.3
5.8
Decision 17.6
37.9
Finish Distribution · By Round
23
R1
14
R2
8
R3
0
R4
0
R5
55
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Ribas Kline
Str/min 4.3
4.7
Sig Acc 40%
47%
Str Def 60%
57%
TD/min 0.14
0.13
Finish 54%
47%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
  • Sig strikes
    41
    41
    8–72 9–78
  • Sig strikes (combined) 92 18–158
  • Takedowns
    1.1
    0.1
    0.0–2.9 0.0–2.2
  • Takedowns (combined) 1.9 0.0–4.7
  • Knockdowns (combined) 0.0 0.0–0.0
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Kline

    Fatima Kline rides a 3-fight longer win streak

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Kline

    Fatima Kline eats 0.6 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 Striking volume favours Kline

    Fatima Kline lands 0.5 more sig strikes per minute

  • 04 Loss streak favours Kline

    Fatima Kline comes in on a 3-fight cleaner skid

  • 05 Takedown defence favours Ribas

    Amanda Ribas stuffs 32% more incoming takedowns

  • 06 KO rate favours Kline

    Fatima Kline finishes by KO 16% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Brad Tavares
Brad Tavares
United States 21-13-0 MMA Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
57% | 43%
Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 19 Jul · 7:00 AM AEST
Marc-Andre Barriault
Marc-Andre Barriault
Canada 17-11-0 Striker Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Brad Tavares
56.9 %
050100
90% CI · 27 – 87 · σ 0.080 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Brad Tavares eats 2.6 fewer strikes per minute
  • Marc-Andre Barriault lands 2.2 more sig strikes per minute
  • Marc-Andre Barriault finishes 18% more of their wins
  • Marc-Andre Barriault out-volumes opponents at 5.6 sig/min vs Brad Tavares's 3.4
  • Brad Tavares has never been finished in 28 fights
Method Breakdown
Tavares Barriault
KO/TKO 12.5
20.0
Submission 5.6
3.7
Decision 38.8
19.3
Finish Distribution · By Round
20
R1
14
R2
7
R3
0
R4
0
R5
58
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Tavares Barriault
Str/min 3.4
5.6
Sig Acc 44%
47%
Str Def 55%
49%
TD/min 0.05
0.02
Finish 29%
47%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
  • Sig strikes
    55
    58
    10–97 9–92
  • Sig strikes (combined) 119 21–172
  • Takedowns
    0.2
    0.0
    0.0–1.4 0.0–1.6
  • Takedowns (combined) 0.4 0.0–3.9
  • Knockdowns (combined) 0.0 0.0–0.0
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Tavares

    Brad Tavares eats 2.6 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Barriault

    Marc-Andre Barriault lands 2.2 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Finish rate favours Barriault

    Marc-Andre Barriault finishes 18% more of their wins

  • 04 Takedown defence favours Tavares

    Brad Tavares stuffs 12% more incoming takedowns

  • 05 KO rate favours Barriault

    Marc-Andre Barriault finishes by KO 7% more often

  • 06 Submission rate favours Barriault

    Marc-Andre Barriault taps opponents 6% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Chase Hooper
Chase Hooper
United States 16-5-1 Grappler Southpaw 2-fight loss streak
100% | 0%
Lightweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 19 Jul · 7:00 AM AEST
Mitch Ramirez
Mitch Ramirez
United States 8-3-0 MMA Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Chase Hooper
100.0 %
050100
90% CI · 86 – 98 · σ 0.000 · High
Why this pick
  • Chase Hooper lands 1.5 more sig strikes per minute
  • Chase Hooper eats 0.6 fewer strikes per minute
  • Mitch Ramirez finishes by KO 44% more often
  • Chase Hooper out-volumes opponents at 4.4 sig/min vs Mitch Ramirez's 2.8
  • Chase Hooper has a 11-fight UFC experience edge (13 vs 2)
Method Breakdown
Hooper Ramirez
KO/TKO 15.7
0.0
Submission 59.4
0.0
Decision 24.9
0.0
Finish Distribution · By Round
44
R1
20
R2
11
R3
0
R4
0
R5
25
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Hooper Ramirez
Str/min 4.4
2.8
Sig Acc 48%
35%
Str Def 41%
38%
TD/min 0.18
0.00
Finish 69%
82%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
  • Sig strikes
    28
    23
    6–66 3–52
  • Sig strikes (combined) 53 10–124
  • Takedowns
    1.6
    0.0
    0.0–4.2 0.0–1.6
  • Takedowns (combined) 2.4 0.0–5.2
  • Knockdowns (combined) 0.0 0.0–0.0
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Hooper

    Chase Hooper lands 1.5 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Hooper

    Chase Hooper eats 0.6 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 KO rate favours Ramirez

    Mitch Ramirez finishes by KO 44% more often

  • 04 Submission rate favours Hooper

    Chase Hooper taps opponents 31% more often

  • 05 Takedown volume favours Hooper

    Chase Hooper hits 0.18 more takedowns per minute

  • 06 Finish rate favours Ramirez

    Mitch Ramirez finishes 13% more of their wins

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Veronica Hardy
Veronica Hardy
Venezuela 10-5-1 MMA Southpaw 1 win
42% | 58%
Women's Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 19 Jul · 7:00 AM AEST
Dione Barbosa
Dione Barbosa
Brazil 9-4-0 Grappler Orthodox 1 win
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Dione Barbosa
57.8 %
050100
90% CI · 28 – 88 · σ 0.063 · High
Why this pick
  • Dione Barbosa eats 0.7 fewer strikes per minute
  • Veronica Hardy lands 0.8 more sig strikes per minute
  • Dione Barbosa hits 0.10 more takedowns per minute
  • Dione Barbosa has never been finished in 5 fights
  • Veronica Hardy has a 5-fight UFC experience edge (10 vs 5)
Method Breakdown
Hardy Barbosa
KO/TKO 4.1
6.5
Submission 3.3
7.4
Decision 34.9
43.9
Finish Distribution · By Round
8
R1
7
R2
5
R3
0
R4
0
R5
79
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Hardy Barbosa
Str/min 3.1
2.3
Sig Acc 46%
45%
Str Def 50%
64%
TD/min 0.05
0.16
Finish 30%
20%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
  • Sig strikes
    34
    37
    8–70 7–62
  • Sig strikes (combined) 68 20–125
  • Takedowns
    0.0
    1.6
    0.0–1.6 0.0–3.4
  • Takedowns (combined) 2.0 0.0–4.7
  • Knockdowns (combined) 0.0 0.0–0.0
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Barbosa

    Dione Barbosa eats 0.7 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Hardy

    Veronica Hardy lands 0.8 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Takedown volume favours Barbosa

    Dione Barbosa hits 0.10 more takedowns per minute

  • 04 Finish rate favours Hardy

    Veronica Hardy finishes 10% more of their wins

  • 05 Striking defence favours Barbosa

    Dione Barbosa avoids 14% more incoming strikes

  • 06 KO rate favours Hardy

    Veronica Hardy finishes by KO 10% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.