UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim — Results & Recap

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79.1% accuracy · 4 events

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Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Josh Hokit wins by KO or Decision	Derrick Lewis vs Josh Hokit	1.78	$331	✓ won +$258
Ilia Topuria wins by DEC	Justin Gaethje vs Ilia Topuria	13.00	$259	✗ lost −$259
Steve Garcia wins	Steve Garcia vs Diego Lopes	2.48	$237	✗ lost −$237
Bo Nickal wins by KO or Decision	Kyle Daukaus vs Bo Nickal	1.71	$172	✓ won +$122

UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim 10/12 · 83%

2026-06-06

Belal Muhammad

24-5-0

Winner

Gabriel Bonfim

Decision (U) · R5

✓ predicted

Gabriel Bonfim

19-1-0

▼

Model Prediction

Belal Muhammad 33%

KO 13%· Sub 3%· Dec 17%

Gabriel Bonfim ✓ won 67%

KO 17%· Sub 14%· Dec 35%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Gabriel Bonfim wins value	67%	1.91	✓ predicted
Method Gabriel Bonfim wins by Decision value	35%	5.80	✓ predicted
Finish round Goes the distance	53%	1.94	✓ predicted

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Gabriel Bonfim wins by DEC value	35%	5.80	✓ won
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	67%	2.50	✓ won
Gabriel Bonfim wins by Sub or Decision value	50%	2.95	✓ won
Gabriel Bonfim wins in R4+ or by Decision value	40%	3.60	✓ won
Gabriel Bonfim wins by KO or Decision value	53%	2.70	✓ won
Belal Muhammad wins by KO/TKO in R1	6%	23.00	✗ lost
Belal Muhammad wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	9%	14.00	✗ lost
Gabriel Bonfim wins value	67%	1.91	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	13%	9.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 1 value	21%	5.75	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	63%	1.80	✓ won
Finish before Round 2	21%	5.40	✗ lost
Belal Muhammad wins by KO/TKO	13%	8.00	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	53%	1.94	✓ won
Fight goes to Decision	53%	1.92	✓ won
Belal Muhammad wins by KO/TKO in R2	3%	29.00	✗ lost
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	67%	1.49	✓ won
Gabriel Bonfim wins by KO/TKO in R1	8%	13.00	✗ lost
Gabriel Bonfim wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	12%	8.00	✗ lost
Gabriel Bonfim wins by Submission in R1	6%	15.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	30%	3.10	✗ lost
Gabriel Bonfim wins by Submission in R1 or R2	10%	9.25	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 5	55%	1.71	✓ won
Gabriel Bonfim significant strikes over 19.5	83%	1.11	—
Gabriel Bonfim significant strikes over 29.5	75%	1.20	—
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	8%	11.00	✗ lost
Belal Muhammad significant strikes over 19.5	80%	1.10	—
Total significant strikes over 49.5	77%	1.13	—
Belal Muhammad significant strikes over 59.5	55%	1.57	—
Belal Muhammad significant strikes over 39.5	66%	1.30	—
Total significant strikes over 59.5	73%	1.18	—
Belal Muhammad wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	5%	16.00	✗ lost
Gabriel Bonfim significant strikes over 39.5	66%	1.30	—
Total significant strikes over 69.5	70%	1.23	—
Fight ends by Submission in R1	7%	11.50	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 89.5	64%	1.35	—
Total significant strikes over 79.5	67%	1.28	—
Fight ends before decision	47%	1.80	✗ lost
Belal Muhammad significant strikes over 49.5	61%	1.40	—
Total significant strikes over 99.5	60%	1.41	—
Belal Muhammad significant strikes over 69.5	49%	1.72	—
Total significant strikes over 109.5	57%	1.48	—
Total significant strikes over 129.5	51%	1.66	—
Belal Muhammad significant strikes over 29.5	72%	1.17	—
Total significant strikes over 119.5	54%	1.56	—
Total significant strikes over 139.5	48%	1.77	—
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	12%	6.75	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 149.5	44%	1.89	—
Total significant strikes over 159.5	41%	2.03	—
Gabriel Bonfim significant strikes over 49.5	57%	1.45	—
Total significant strikes over 169.5	38%	2.20	—
Total takedowns over 0.5	76%	1.09	—
Gabriel Bonfim wins by KO or Sub	32%	2.60	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 179.5	34%	2.40	—
Belal Muhammad significant strikes over 79.5	40%	2.00	—
Gabriel Bonfim significant strikes over 59.5	48%	1.67	—
Total significant strikes over 189.5	31%	2.60	—
Total significant strikes over 199.5	28%	2.90	—
Gabriel Bonfim wins by KO/TKO	17%	4.60	✗ lost
Belal Muhammad wins by KO or Sub	16%	5.00	✗ lost
Gabriel Bonfim wins by SUB	14%	5.40	✗ lost
Belal Muhammad takedowns over 0.5	58%	1.33	—
Gabriel Bonfim takedowns over 0.5	47%	1.62	—
Gabriel Bonfim significant strikes over 69.5	40%	1.91	—
Belal Muhammad significant strikes over 89.5	31%	2.30	—
Gabriel Bonfim wins by KO/TKO in R2	5%	16.00	✗ lost
Gabriel Bonfim significant strikes over 79.5	31%	2.25	—
Under 2.5 rounds	37%	1.90	✗ lost
Gabriel Bonfim wins by Submission in R2	4%	18.00	✗ lost
Gabriel Bonfim wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	7%	9.75	✗ lost
Belal Muhammad wins by KO or Decision	31%	2.18	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 1.5	53%	1.23	—
Total significant strikes over 209.5	20%	3.20	—
Gabriel Bonfim wins by Submission in R2, R3 or R4	7%	8.75	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	17%	3.80	✗ lost
Gabriel Bonfim significant strikes over 89.5	24%	2.70	—
Belal Muhammad wins	33%	1.93	✗ lost
Belal Muhammad wins by KO/TKO in R3 or R4	3%	19.00	✗ lost
Gabriel Bonfim significant strikes over 99.5	19%	3.25	—
Belal Muhammad significant strikes over 99.5	23%	2.70	—
Belal Muhammad wins by KO/TKO in R4	1%	41.00	✗ lost
Belal Muhammad wins by KO/TKO in R3	2%	31.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	4%	13.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	4%	13.00	✗ lost
Gabriel Bonfim significant strikes over 109.5	15%	3.75	—
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	7%	8.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R4	3%	16.00	✗ lost
Belal Muhammad significant strikes over 109.5	17%	3.20	—
Gabriel Bonfim takedowns over 1.5	24%	2.10	—
Total takedowns over 2.5	37%	1.38	—
Fight ends by finish in Round 4	5%	9.75	✗ lost
Gabriel Bonfim wins by KO/TKO in R3 or R4	4%	11.50	✗ lost
Belal Muhammad wins by DEC	17%	2.80	✗ lost
Gabriel Bonfim significant strikes over 119.5	11%	4.50	—
Belal Muhammad wins in R4+ or by Decision	20%	2.45	✗ lost
Gabriel Bonfim takedowns over 2.5	18%	2.63	—
Gabriel Bonfim wins by KO/TKO in R3	2%	19.00	✗ lost
Belal Muhammad wins by KO/TKO in R4 or R5	2%	23.00	✗ lost
Belal Muhammad wins by Sub or Decision	20%	2.30	✗ lost
Gabriel Bonfim wins by Submission in R3, R4 or R5	4%	10.50	✗ lost
Gabriel Bonfim wins by Submission in R3	2%	21.00	✗ lost
Gabriel Bonfim wins by KO/TKO in R4	2%	23.00	✗ lost
Gabriel Bonfim takedowns over 3.5	12%	3.40	—
Gabriel Bonfim wins by Submission in R4	2%	26.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	2%	16.00	✗ lost
Belal Muhammad significant strikes over 119.5	10%	3.75	—
Gabriel Bonfim wins by KO/TKO in R4 or R5	3%	14.00	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 3.5	23%	1.58	—
Gabriel Bonfim significant strikes over 129.5	6%	5.50	—
Fight ends by Submission in R4	2%	19.00	✗ lost
Belal Muhammad wins by Submission in R1	1%	31.00	✗ lost
Belal Muhammad wins by Submission in R1 or R2	2%	19.00	✗ lost
Belal Muhammad takedowns over 1.5	19%	1.62	—
Gabriel Bonfim takedowns over 4.5	6%	4.50	—
Total takedowns over 4.5	14%	1.88	—
Belal Muhammad wins by SUB	3%	10.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R5	1%	19.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 5	2%	11.50	✗ lost
Belal Muhammad wins by Submission in R2	1%	34.00	✗ lost
Belal Muhammad wins by Submission in R2, R3 or R4	1%	17.00	✗ lost
Gabriel Bonfim wins by KO/TKO in R5	1%	29.00	✗ lost
Gabriel Bonfim wins by Submission in R5	1%	31.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R5	1%	23.00	✗ lost
Belal Muhammad takedowns over 2.5	8%	1.91	—
Gabriel Bonfim significant strikes over 139.5	2%	7.00	—
Belal Muhammad significant strikes over 129.5	3%	4.50	—
Belal Muhammad wins by Submission in R3, R4 or R5	1%	19.00	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 5.5	6%	2.20	—
Total significant strikes over 219.5	2%	3.50	—
Total knockdowns over 0.5	2%	2.05	—

Brendan Allen

26-7-0

Winner

Brendan Allen

Decision (U) · R3

✓ predicted

Edmen Shahbazyan

16-5-0

▼

Model Prediction

Brendan Allen ✓ won 60%

KO 14%· Sub 30%· Dec 16%

Edmen Shahbazyan 40%

KO 19%· Sub 3%· Dec 19%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Brendan Allen wins	60%	1.53	✓ predicted
Method Brendan Allen wins by Submission	30%	3.60	missed
Finish round Finish in Round 2	31%	4.50	missed

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Fight ends by Submission in R2	15%	9.25	✗ lost
Edmen Shahbazyan wins by DEC value	19%	7.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 2 value	31%	4.50	✗ lost
Edmen Shahbazyan wins by Submission in R2	1%	101.00	✗ lost
Brendan Allen wins by Submission in R2 value	14%	9.75	✗ lost
Edmen Shahbazyan wins by Sub or Decision value	22%	6.25	✗ lost
Edmen Shahbazyan wins by Decision value	19%	7.00	✗ lost
Brendan Allen wins by Submission in R1 or R2 value	26%	4.75	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	15%	7.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	33%	3.30	✗ lost
Brendan Allen wins by SUB	30%	3.60	✗ lost
Brendan Allen wins by KO/TKO in R2	7%	16.00	✗ lost
Brendan Allen wins by Submission in R2 or R3	18%	5.90	✗ lost
Finish before Round 3	57%	1.82	✗ lost
Brendan Allen wins by KO or Sub	44%	2.35	✗ lost
Edmen Shahbazyan wins by KO/TKO in R2	9%	11.50	✗ lost
Edmen Shahbazyan wins	40%	2.51	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 2	74%	1.36	✓ won
Edmen Shahbazyan wins by KO or Decision	37%	2.55	✗ lost
Brendan Allen wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	12%	7.75	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	35%	2.71	✓ won
Fight ends before decision	65%	1.43	✗ lost
Brendan Allen wins by Submission in R1	12%	7.75	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	13%	7.00	✗ lost
Brendan Allen wins	60%	1.53	✓ won
Edmen Shahbazyan takedowns over 1.5	18%	5.00	—
Fight goes to Decision	35%	2.60	✓ won
Brendan Allen wins by finish in Round 1	18%	5.00	✗ lost
Brendan Allen wins by Sub or Decision	46%	1.94	✓ won
Edmen Shahbazyan significant strikes over 19.5	70%	1.25	—
Edmen Shahbazyan wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	11%	7.75	✗ lost
Edmen Shahbazyan wins by Submission in R1 or R2	3%	34.00	✗ lost
Brendan Allen wins by KO/TKO	14%	6.00	✗ lost
Edmen Shahbazyan takedowns over 2.5	8%	10.00	—
Edmen Shahbazyan wins by SUB	3%	29.00	✗ lost
Edmen Shahbazyan takedowns over 0.5	34%	2.40	—
Total takedowns over 0.5	70%	1.17	—
Brendan Allen wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	8%	9.75	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 49.5	60%	1.33	—
Brendan Allen significant strikes over 19.5	64%	1.22	—
Fight ends by KO/TKO	33%	2.35	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 59.5	53%	1.46	—
Edmen Shahbazyan significant strikes over 29.5	51%	1.50	—
Brendan Allen wins by KO or Decision	30%	2.50	✓ won
Edmen Shahbazyan wins by KO or Sub	22%	3.35	✗ lost
Brendan Allen wins in R3+ or by Decision	26%	2.80	✓ won
Brendan Allen wins by KO/TKO in R1	6%	12.50	✗ lost
Edmen Shahbazyan wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	16%	4.30	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 1.5	48%	1.47	—
Brendan Allen significant strikes over 29.5	46%	1.50	—
Edmen Shahbazyan wins by KO/TKO	19%	3.60	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 69.5	41%	1.60	—
Brendan Allen wins by DEC	16%	3.90	✓ won
Brendan Allen takedowns over 0.5	46%	1.33	—
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	13%	4.40	✗ lost
Brendan Allen wins by finish in Round 1	18%	3.10	✗ lost
Edmen Shahbazyan wins by Submission in R1	1%	46.00	✗ lost
Edmen Shahbazyan significant strikes over 39.5	29%	1.80	—
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	8%	5.90	✗ lost
Edmen Shahbazyan wins by finish in Round 1	9%	5.50	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 2.5	26%	1.79	—
Total significant strikes over 79.5	26%	1.75	—
Edmen Shahbazyan wins by KO/TKO in R1	8%	6.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	4%	11.00	✗ lost
Brendan Allen wins by Submission in R3	4%	11.50	✗ lost
Brendan Allen significant strikes over 39.5	24%	1.80	—
Edmen Shahbazyan wins by KO/TKO in R3	2%	18.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	4%	10.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 89.5	22%	1.89	—
Brendan Allen takedowns over 1.5	24%	1.67	—
Edmen Shahbazyan significant strikes over 49.5	19%	2.10	—
Total takedowns over 3.5	17%	2.25	—
Total significant strikes over 99.5	18%	2.07	—
Brendan Allen significant strikes over 49.5	18%	2.10	—
Edmen Shahbazyan wins by finish in Round 1	9%	4.00	✗ lost
Brendan Allen wins by KO/TKO in R3	2%	19.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 109.5	14%	2.25	—
Edmen Shahbazyan significant strikes over 59.5	12%	2.60	—
Brendan Allen significant strikes over 59.5	11%	2.63	—
Total takedowns over 4.5	9%	2.95	—
Total significant strikes over 119.5	11%	2.50	—
Brendan Allen takedowns over 2.5	13%	2.10	—
Total significant strikes over 129.5	7%	2.80	—
Brendan Allen significant strikes over 69.5	5%	3.30	—
Edmen Shahbazyan significant strikes over 69.5	5%	3.10	—
Total significant strikes over 139.5	3%	3.20	—
Total takedowns over 5.5	1%	3.80	—
Total knockdowns over 0.5	2%	1.60	—
Brendan Allen takedowns over 3.5	1%	2.70	—

Farés Ziam

18-4-0

Winner

Tom Nolan

Decision (U) · R3

✗ wrong

Tom Nolan

10-1-0

▼

Model Prediction

Farés Ziam 73%

KO 23%· Sub 11%· Dec 38%

Tom Nolan ✓ won 27%

KO 9%· Sub 4%· Dec 14%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Farés Ziam wins	73%	1.29	missed
Method Farés Ziam wins by Decision	38%	2.85	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	53%	1.99	✓ predicted

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Farés Ziam wins by Decision value	38%	2.87	✗ lost
Farés Ziam wins by DEC	38%	2.85	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	53%	1.99	✓ won
Fight goes to Decision	53%	1.97	✓ won
Tom Nolan significant strikes over 19.5	76%	1.33	—
Farés Ziam wins by KO or Decision	62%	1.64	✗ lost
Farés Ziam takedowns over 0.5	64%	1.57	—
Tom Nolan wins by Submission in R1	2%	51.00	✗ lost
Tom Nolan wins	27%	3.62	✓ won
Tom Nolan significant strikes over 29.5	59%	1.67	—
Total significant strikes over 49.5	74%	1.34	—
Tom Nolan wins by Submission in R1 or R2	3%	31.00	✗ lost
Farés Ziam significant strikes over 19.5	82%	1.20	—
Farés Ziam significant strikes over 29.5	70%	1.40	—
Finish before Round 2	24%	4.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 59.5	65%	1.48	—
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	61%	1.58	✓ won
Tom Nolan wins by Sub or Decision	18%	5.25	✓ won
Farés Ziam wins by Sub or Decision	49%	1.93	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	57%	1.66	✓ won
Farés Ziam wins	73%	1.29	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	17%	5.60	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 69.5	56%	1.65	—
Fight reaches Round 2	76%	1.22	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 1	24%	3.80	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	43%	2.10	✗ lost
Tom Nolan wins by KO or Decision	24%	3.80	✓ won
Farés Ziam wins by KO/TKO in R1	12%	7.50	✗ lost
Farés Ziam wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	19%	4.60	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 0.5	70%	1.27	—
Tom Nolan wins by KO or Sub	13%	6.75	✗ lost
Tom Nolan wins by SUB	4%	23.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 79.5	46%	1.89	—
Tom Nolan wins in R3+ or by Decision	17%	5.25	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO	33%	2.65	✗ lost
Tom Nolan wins by DEC	14%	6.00	✓ won
Tom Nolan significant strikes over 39.5	38%	2.25	—
Farés Ziam wins by KO/TKO	23%	3.60	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	47%	1.75	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 1.5	51%	1.63	—
Tom Nolan wins by Submission in R2	1%	67.00	✗ lost
Tom Nolan wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	8%	10.50	✗ lost
Tom Nolan wins by KO/TKO in R1	5%	17.00	✗ lost
Tom Nolan wins by KO/TKO	9%	8.50	✗ lost
Farés Ziam takedowns over 1.5	39%	2.00	—
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	15%	5.00	✗ lost
Farés Ziam significant strikes over 39.5	44%	1.72	—
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	10%	7.25	✗ lost
Farés Ziam wins by KO or Sub	34%	2.20	✗ lost
Tom Nolan significant strikes over 59.5	16%	4.50	—
Farés Ziam wins by KO/TKO in R2	8%	9.75	✗ lost
Tom Nolan significant strikes over 49.5	22%	3.25	—
Fight ends by Submission in R1	8%	9.50	✗ lost
Tom Nolan takedowns over 0.5	30%	2.37	—
Total significant strikes over 89.5	33%	2.15	—
Tom Nolan significant strikes over 69.5	11%	6.50	—
Fight ends by Submission	15%	4.70	✗ lost
Farés Ziam wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	11%	6.00	✗ lost
Tom Nolan wins by Submission in R3	1%	101.00	✗ lost
Tom Nolan wins by KO/TKO in R2	3%	21.00	✗ lost
Farés Ziam wins by Submission in R1 or R2	9%	6.75	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 99.5	24%	2.55	—
Total significant strikes over 109.5	20%	3.00	—
Farés Ziam wins by SUB	11%	5.40	✗ lost
Farés Ziam wins by Submission in R1	6%	10.50	✗ lost
Tom Nolan wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	5%	13.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 119.5	16%	3.60	—
Fight ends by Submission in R2	5%	12.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	5%	10.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 129.5	13%	4.30	—
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	8%	6.75	✗ lost
Tom Nolan significant strikes over 79.5	5%	10.00	—
Farés Ziam wins by KO/TKO in R3	4%	13.00	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 2.5	25%	2.03	—
Farés Ziam wins by Submission in R2	4%	14.00	✗ lost
Farés Ziam significant strikes over 49.5	23%	2.10	—
Farés Ziam wins by Submission in R2 or R3	5%	9.00	✗ lost
Tom Nolan wins by KO/TKO in R3	2%	31.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 139.5	9%	5.25	—
Tom Nolan takedowns over 1.5	10%	4.50	—
Farés Ziam significant strikes over 59.5	16%	2.80	—
Total takedowns over 3.5	17%	2.55	—
Fight ends by Submission in R3	2%	16.00	✗ lost
Farés Ziam takedowns over 2.5	15%	2.50	—
Farés Ziam significant strikes over 69.5	9%	3.75	—
Farés Ziam wins by Submission in R3	2%	19.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 149.5	5%	6.25	—
Total takedowns over 4.5	9%	3.45	—
Farés Ziam significant strikes over 79.5	3%	5.00	—
Total significant strikes over 159.5	2%	8.00	—
Total knockdowns over 0.5	2%	1.55	—

Bryce Mitchell

18-4-0

Winner

Bryce Mitchell

Submission · R3

✗ wrong

Santiago Luna

8-0-0

▼

Model Prediction

Bryce Mitchell ✓ won 44%

KO 5%· Sub 18%· Dec 21%

Santiago Luna 56%

KO 19%· Sub 13%· Dec 24%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Santiago Luna wins value	56%	2.04	missed
Method Santiago Luna wins by Decision	24%	3.80	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	45%	2.13	missed

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Santiago Luna wins by SUB	13%	11.50	✗ lost
Santiago Luna wins by Submission in R1 or R2 value	11%	14.00	✗ lost
Santiago Luna wins by Submission in R1	6%	23.00	✗ lost
Santiago Luna wins by Submission in R2	5%	31.00	✗ lost
Bryce Mitchell wins by KO/TKO in R2	2%	67.00	✗ lost
Finish before Round 3 value	45%	2.74	✗ lost
Santiago Luna wins by KO or Sub value	32%	3.80	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 2 value	19%	6.25	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	11%	11.00	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	50%	2.37	—
Fight ends by Submission	31%	3.75	✓ won
Fight ends before decision	55%	2.13	✓ won
Bryce Mitchell wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	4%	26.00	✗ lost
Santiago Luna wins value	56%	2.04	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 1	26%	4.30	✗ lost
Bryce Mitchell wins by KO/TKO	5%	21.00	✗ lost
Santiago Luna wins by Sub or Decision	37%	3.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	24%	4.40	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	15%	7.00	✗ lost
Bryce Mitchell wins by KO or Sub	24%	4.30	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	8%	12.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	11%	8.75	✗ lost
Santiago Luna wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	15%	6.50	✗ lost
Santiago Luna wins by KO/TKO	19%	5.25	✗ lost
Santiago Luna wins by Submission in R3	2%	41.00	✗ lost
Santiago Luna wins in R3+ or by Decision	30%	3.15	✗ lost
Bryce Mitchell wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	3%	34.00	✗ lost
Santiago Luna wins by KO or Decision	43%	2.25	✗ lost
Bryce Mitchell wins by Submission in R2	6%	15.00	✗ lost
Bryce Mitchell wins by Submission in R1 or R2	15%	6.25	✗ lost
Bryce Mitchell wins by SUB	18%	5.00	✓ won
Santiago Luna wins by DEC	24%	3.80	✗ lost
Santiago Luna wins by KO/TKO in R2	6%	14.00	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 2	74%	1.20	✓ won
Santiago Luna wins by KO/TKO in R1	9%	10.00	✗ lost
Bryce Mitchell wins by Submission in R2 or R3	10%	9.00	✓ won
Bryce Mitchell wins by KO/TKO in R1	3%	34.00	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 0.5	81%	1.05	—
Santiago Luna wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	10%	8.75	✗ lost
Santiago Luna takedowns over 0.5	42%	2.00	—
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	10%	8.25	✓ won
Bryce Mitchell wins	44%	1.81	✓ won
Bryce Mitchell wins by Submission in R1	9%	9.25	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	6%	14.00	✓ won
Total takedowns over 1.5	66%	1.20	—
Santiago Luna significant strikes over 19.5	67%	1.17	—
Bryce Mitchell wins by KO/TKO in R3	1%	81.00	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	50%	1.53	—
Total significant strikes over 49.5	61%	1.24	—
Bryce Mitchell takedowns over 0.5	67%	1.12	—
Santiago Luna takedowns over 1.5	21%	3.60	—
Fight goes to decision	45%	1.66	✗ lost
Santiago Luna significant strikes over 29.5	56%	1.33	—
Fight goes to Decision	45%	1.65	✗ lost
Bryce Mitchell wins by Sub or Decision	39%	1.89	✓ won
Bryce Mitchell significant strikes over 19.5	60%	1.20	—
Total significant strikes over 59.5	54%	1.32	—
Bryce Mitchell takedowns over 1.5	52%	1.36	—
Total takedowns over 2.5	51%	1.39	—
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	4%	16.00	✗ lost
Bryce Mitchell wins by KO or Decision	26%	2.60	✗ lost
Santiago Luna takedowns over 2.5	10%	6.50	—
Total significant strikes over 69.5	44%	1.44	—
Santiago Luna wins by KO/TKO in R3	3%	19.00	✗ lost
Santiago Luna significant strikes over 39.5	40%	1.57	—
Bryce Mitchell takedowns over 2.5	38%	1.62	—
Bryce Mitchell significant strikes over 29.5	42%	1.45	—
Bryce Mitchell wins in R3+ or by Decision	24%	2.50	✓ won
Bryce Mitchell wins by DEC	21%	2.85	✗ lost
Bryce Mitchell wins by Submission in R3	3%	18.00	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 79.5	33%	1.59	—
Bryce Mitchell takedowns over 3.5	25%	1.91	—
Total takedowns over 3.5	28%	1.65	—
Santiago Luna significant strikes over 49.5	23%	2.00	—
Bryce Mitchell significant strikes over 39.5	24%	1.80	—
Total significant strikes over 89.5	24%	1.79	—
Total significant strikes over 99.5	20%	2.03	—
Bryce Mitchell significant strikes over 49.5	17%	2.30	—
Total significant strikes over 109.5	16%	2.35	—
Santiago Luna significant strikes over 59.5	15%	2.63	—
Total significant strikes over 119.5	13%	2.85	—
Bryce Mitchell significant strikes over 59.5	10%	3.10	—
Total significant strikes over 129.5	9%	3.40	—
Total takedowns over 4.5	15%	2.03	—
Santiago Luna significant strikes over 69.5	6%	3.60	—
Total significant strikes over 139.5	5%	4.20	—
Bryce Mitchell takedowns over 4.5	6%	2.50	—
Bryce Mitchell significant strikes over 69.5	3%	4.33	—
Total significant strikes over 149.5	2%	5.25	—
Total knockdowns over 0.5	2%	2.75	—
Total takedowns over 5.5	3%	2.45	—

Junior Tafa

7-5-0

Winner

Iwo Baraniewski

KO/TKO · R1

✓ predicted

Iwo Baraniewski

8-0-0

▼

Model Prediction

Junior Tafa 28%

KO 16%· Sub 2%· Dec 10%

Iwo Baraniewski ✓ won 72%

KO 34%· Sub 15%· Dec 24%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Iwo Baraniewski wins	72%	1.24	✓ predicted
Method Iwo Baraniewski wins by KO/TKO	34%	1.91	✓ predicted
Finish round Finish in Round 1	39%	—	✓ predicted

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Iwo Baraniewski wins by DEC value	24%	13.00	✗ lost
Iwo Baraniewski wins in R3+ or by Decision value	30%	9.50	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision value	34%	7.75	✗ lost
Junior Tafa takedowns over 0.5 value	24%	11.00	—
Fight goes to decision value	34%	7.50	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 3 value	41%	5.40	✗ lost
Junior Tafa wins by DEC	10%	19.00	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	62%	2.87	✓ won
Junior Tafa significant strikes over 39.5 value	33%	5.00	—
Junior Tafa significant strikes over 29.5 value	44%	3.60	—
Junior Tafa significant strikes over 49.5 value	22%	7.00	—
Junior Tafa wins in R3+ or by Decision value	12%	13.00	✗ lost
Junior Tafa wins by Sub or Decision	12%	12.50	✗ lost
Junior Tafa significant strikes over 19.5 value	59%	2.40	—
Total significant strikes over 59.5 value	45%	3.10	—
Total significant strikes over 49.5 value	53%	2.55	—
Total significant strikes over 69.5 value	38%	3.60	—
Iwo Baraniewski significant strikes over 29.5 value	51%	2.63	—
Total significant strikes over 79.5 value	30%	4.30	—
Iwo Baraniewski wins by Sub or Decision value	38%	3.20	✗ lost
Iwo Baraniewski wins by KO/TKO in R3	4%	34.00	✗ lost
Iwo Baraniewski significant strikes over 19.5 value	67%	1.80	—
Total significant strikes over 89.5 value	23%	5.10	—
Junior Tafa wins by KO or Decision	26%	4.40	✗ lost
Junior Tafa wins value	28%	4.10	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 99.5	18%	6.00	—
Iwo Baraniewski wins by Submission in R3	2%	71.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	7%	15.00	✗ lost
Iwo Baraniewski wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	14%	7.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	5%	19.00	✗ lost
Iwo Baraniewski wins by KO or Decision	57%	1.72	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	20%	4.60	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 109.5	13%	7.00	—
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	15%	6.00	✗ lost
Iwo Baraniewski significant strikes over 49.5	18%	5.00	—
Iwo Baraniewski significant strikes over 39.5	24%	3.75	—
Iwo Baraniewski wins	72%	1.24	✓ won
Iwo Baraniewski wins by KO/TKO in R2	10%	8.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	2%	51.00	✗ lost
Junior Tafa wins by KO/TKO	16%	5.20	✗ lost
Iwo Baraniewski wins by Submission in R2 or R3	6%	14.00	✗ lost
Junior Tafa wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	14%	5.80	✗ lost
Junior Tafa wins by KO or Sub	18%	4.60	✗ lost
Iwo Baraniewski significant strikes over 59.5	12%	6.50	—
Total takedowns over 0.5	47%	1.67	—
Total takedowns over 1.5	32%	2.40	—
Junior Tafa significant strikes over 59.5	8%	10.00	—
Junior Tafa wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	7%	11.50	✗ lost
Junior Tafa wins by KO/TKO in R1	10%	8.00	✗ lost
Iwo Baraniewski wins by Submission in R2	4%	17.00	✗ lost
Junior Tafa wins by KO/TKO in R2	5%	15.00	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 2.5	21%	3.50	—
Fight ends by KO/TKO	50%	1.43	✓ won
Fight ends before decision	66%	1.07	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission in R2	5%	14.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 119.5	8%	8.50	—
Junior Tafa wins by finish in Round 1	10%	6.50	✗ lost
Finish before Round 3	59%	1.13	✓ won
Iwo Baraniewski wins by KO/TKO	34%	1.91	✓ won
Iwo Baraniewski wins by KO or Sub	48%	1.32	✓ won
Iwo Baraniewski wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	30%	1.98	✓ won
Iwo Baraniewski wins by SUB	15%	4.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	16%	3.60	✗ lost
Iwo Baraniewski significant strikes over 69.5	6%	9.50	—
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	29%	1.96	✓ won
Iwo Baraniewski wins by Submission in R1 or R2	13%	4.10	✗ lost
Junior Tafa wins by KO/TKO in R3	2%	31.00	✗ lost
Junior Tafa wins by finish in Round 1	10%	5.10	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	38%	1.36	✗ lost
Iwo Baraniewski takedowns over 0.5	33%	1.53	—
Iwo Baraniewski wins by KO/TKO in R1	20%	2.45	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission in R1	9%	4.70	✗ lost
Iwo Baraniewski wins by Submission in R1	9%	5.10	✗ lost
Junior Tafa wins by SUB	2%	26.00	✗ lost
Junior Tafa wins by Submission in R1 or R2	1%	29.00	✗ lost
Iwo Baraniewski wins by finish in Round 1	28%	1.37	✓ won
Iwo Baraniewski takedowns over 1.5	19%	2.00	—
Junior Tafa wins by Submission in R1	1%	41.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 129.5	3%	10.00	—
Total knockdowns over 0.5	2%	1.13	—

Matt Schnell

17-10-0

Winner

Alessandro Costa

KO/TKO · R1

✓ predicted

Alessandro Costa

15-5-0

▼

Model Prediction

Matt Schnell 26%

KO 2%· Sub 17%· Dec 7%

Alessandro Costa ✓ won 74%

KO 40%· Sub 6%· Dec 28%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Alessandro Costa wins	74%	1.21	✓ predicted
Method Alessandro Costa wins by KO/TKO	40%	1.72	✓ predicted
Finish round Finish in Round 1	34%	—	✓ predicted

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Alessandro Costa wins by DEC value	28%	9.00	✗ lost
Alessandro Costa wins by Decision value	28%	8.50	✗ lost
Matt Schnell wins by Submission in R1 or R2 value	15%	14.00	✗ lost
Matt Schnell wins by Submission in R1 value	9%	21.00	✗ lost
Matt Schnell wins by SUB value	17%	11.00	✗ lost
Matt Schnell wins by Submission in R2	6%	31.00	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	35%	5.00	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision value	35%	4.90	✗ lost
Matt Schnell wins by Submission in R2 or R3	8%	19.00	✗ lost
Matt Schnell wins by Sub or Decision value	24%	5.80	✗ lost
Alessandro Costa wins by Sub or Decision value	34%	3.80	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 3 value	45%	2.90	✗ lost
Matt Schnell wins by KO or Sub	19%	6.25	✗ lost
Matt Schnell wins value	26%	4.45	✗ lost
Matt Schnell wins by finish in Round 1	10%	10.00	✗ lost
Alessandro Costa wins by KO or Decision	68%	1.48	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission in R2	8%	12.50	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	59%	1.61	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission	23%	4.10	✗ lost
Alessandro Costa wins	74%	1.21	✓ won
Over 2.5 rounds	41%	2.20	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	22%	4.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	12%	7.00	✗ lost
Matt Schnell wins in R3+ or by Decision	11%	7.50	✗ lost
Matt Schnell wins by Submission in R3	2%	41.00	✗ lost
Alessandro Costa wins by KO/TKO in R2	14%	6.00	✗ lost
Matt Schnell wins by finish in Round 1	10%	7.75	✗ lost
Finish before Round 3	57%	1.38	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	14%	5.30	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	65%	1.15	✓ won
Alessandro Costa wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	35%	2.03	✓ won
Alessandro Costa wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	18%	3.80	✗ lost
Matt Schnell wins by DEC	7%	10.00	✗ lost
Alessandro Costa wins by KO/TKO	40%	1.72	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO	42%	1.53	✓ won
Alessandro Costa wins by KO/TKO in R1	22%	2.95	✓ won
Alessandro Costa wins by KO or Sub	46%	1.35	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	23%	2.65	✓ won
Alessandro Costa wins by finish in Round 1	25%	2.37	✓ won
Matt Schnell wins by KO or Decision	9%	5.90	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	3%	18.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	8%	5.90	✗ lost
Alessandro Costa wins by KO/TKO in R3	5%	9.00	✗ lost
Alessandro Costa wins by finish in Round 1	25%	1.62	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	5%	7.75	✗ lost
Alessandro Costa wins by Submission in R2	2%	18.00	✗ lost
Alessandro Costa wins by Submission in R1 or R2	5%	6.75	✗ lost
Alessandro Costa wins by SUB	6%	5.80	✗ lost
Alessandro Costa wins by Submission in R1	3%	9.25	✗ lost
Matt Schnell wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	2%	14.00	✗ lost
Matt Schnell wins by KO/TKO in R2	1%	34.00	✗ lost
Matt Schnell wins by KO/TKO	2%	11.50	✗ lost
Matt Schnell wins by KO/TKO in R1	1%	21.00	✗ lost
Alessandro Costa wins by Submission in R3	1%	26.00	✗ lost
Matt Schnell wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	1%	19.00	✗ lost

Marcus McGhee

10-2-0

Winner

Marcus McGhee

Decision (U) · R3

✓ predicted

John Yannis

10-4-0

▼

Model Prediction

Marcus McGhee ✓ won 68%

KO 21%· Sub 13%· Dec 34%

John Yannis 32%

KO 11%· Sub 3%· Dec 17%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Marcus McGhee wins	68%	1.21	✓ predicted
Method Marcus McGhee wins by Decision value	34%	3.50	✓ predicted
Finish round Goes the distance	51%	2.39	✓ predicted

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
John Yannis wins value	32%	4.45	✗ lost
John Yannis wins by Sub or Decision value	21%	6.50	✗ lost
John Yannis wins by KO or Decision value	29%	4.60	✗ lost
John Yannis wins by DEC	17%	7.50	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision value	51%	2.40	✓ won
Fight goes to decision	51%	2.39	✓ won
John Yannis wins by Decision value	17%	7.00	✗ lost
Marcus McGhee wins by DEC value	34%	3.50	✓ won
John Yannis wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	10%	11.50	✗ lost
John Yannis wins by KO or Sub	15%	7.75	✗ lost
John Yannis wins by KO/TKO in R1	7%	17.00	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	54%	2.00	✓ won
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	56%	1.89	✓ won
John Yannis wins by KO/TKO	11%	9.50	✗ lost
John Yannis wins by Submission in R1 or R2	3%	34.00	✗ lost
John Yannis wins by Submission in R1	2%	51.00	✗ lost
Marcus McGhee wins by Sub or Decision	47%	2.10	✓ won
Marcus McGhee wins in R3+ or by Decision	38%	2.55	✓ won
John Yannis wins by SUB	3%	29.00	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 2	71%	1.33	✓ won
John Yannis wins by Submission in R2	1%	91.00	✗ lost
Finish before Round 2	29%	3.14	✗ lost
John Yannis wins by finish in Round 1	8%	10.50	✗ lost
John Yannis wins by KO/TKO in R2	3%	26.00	✗ lost
Marcus McGhee wins by KO or Decision	55%	1.57	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	19%	4.40	✗ lost
Marcus McGhee wins	68%	1.21	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission in R1	10%	8.25	✗ lost
John Yannis wins by finish in Round 1	8%	9.50	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	46%	1.72	✗ lost
John Yannis wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	5%	17.00	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	49%	1.53	✗ lost
Marcus McGhee wins by Submission in R1	8%	9.25	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	17%	4.30	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	32%	2.18	✗ lost
Marcus McGhee wins by Submission in R1 or R2	12%	5.75	✗ lost
Marcus McGhee wins by KO/TKO in R1	12%	5.50	✗ lost
Marcus McGhee wins by SUB	13%	4.80	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	15%	4.25	✗ lost
Marcus McGhee wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	19%	3.30	✗ lost
Marcus McGhee wins by KO or Sub	35%	1.78	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	10%	6.00	✗ lost
Marcus McGhee wins by KO/TKO	21%	2.70	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	5%	11.00	✗ lost
Marcus McGhee wins by Submission in R2	4%	12.00	✗ lost
Marcus McGhee wins by Submission in R2 or R3	6%	8.25	✗ lost
Marcus McGhee wins by KO/TKO in R2	6%	7.00	✗ lost
Marcus McGhee wins by finish in Round 1	20%	2.15	✗ lost
Marcus McGhee wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	9%	4.90	✗ lost
John Yannis wins by KO/TKO in R3	1%	34.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	5%	7.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	4%	9.75	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	2%	18.00	✗ lost
Marcus McGhee wins by Submission in R3	1%	19.00	✗ lost
Marcus McGhee wins by KO/TKO in R3	2%	12.00	✗ lost

Bruno Silva

15-8-2

Winner

Édgar Cháirez

Submission · R1

✓ predicted

Édgar Cháirez

13-6-0

▼

Model Prediction

Bruno Silva 36%

KO 6%· Sub 7%· Dec 23%

Édgar Cháirez ✓ won 64%

KO 5%· Sub 13%· Dec 46%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Édgar Cháirez wins value	64%	1.97	✓ predicted
Method Édgar Cháirez wins by Decision value	46%	4.50	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	69%	1.78	missed

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Édgar Cháirez wins by DEC value	46%	4.50	✗ lost
Édgar Cháirez wins by Sub or Decision value	59%	2.85	✓ won
Édgar Cháirez wins in R3+ or by Decision value	48%	3.50	✗ lost
Édgar Cháirez wins by KO or Decision value	51%	2.55	✗ lost
Édgar Cháirez wins value	64%	1.97	✓ won
Fight goes to decision	69%	1.78	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision value	69%	1.77	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	72%	1.57	✗ lost
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision value	74%	1.50	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 2	84%	1.22	✗ lost
Édgar Cháirez wins by Submission in R1 or R2	11%	8.50	✓ won
Édgar Cháirez wins by SUB	13%	6.75	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission	20%	4.30	✓ won
Édgar Cháirez wins by Submission in R1	6%	13.00	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission in R1	10%	8.25	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission in R2	6%	11.50	✗ lost
Édgar Cháirez wins by Submission in R2	4%	18.00	✗ lost
Bruno Silva wins by Sub or Decision	30%	2.25	✗ lost
Bruno Silva wins in R3+ or by Decision	27%	2.55	✗ lost
Bruno Silva wins	36%	1.87	✗ lost
Bruno Silva wins by SUB	7%	9.25	✗ lost
Bruno Silva wins by Submission in R1 or R2	6%	11.00	✗ lost
Bruno Silva wins by DEC	23%	2.85	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	28%	2.25	✓ won
Finish before Round 3	26%	2.47	✓ won
Bruno Silva wins by Submission in R1	4%	17.00	✗ lost
Bruno Silva wins by KO or Decision	29%	2.15	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 1	16%	3.90	✓ won
Fight ends before decision	31%	1.96	✓ won
Édgar Cháirez wins by KO or Sub	18%	3.20	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	10%	5.75	✗ lost
Bruno Silva wins by KO or Sub	13%	4.40	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	3%	17.00	✗ lost
Bruno Silva wins by Submission in R2 or R3	4%	16.00	✗ lost
Édgar Cháirez wins by Submission in R3	2%	26.00	✗ lost
Bruno Silva wins by Submission in R2	2%	23.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	5%	8.25	✗ lost
Bruno Silva wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	5%	8.75	✗ lost
Bruno Silva wins by KO/TKO	6%	7.25	✗ lost
Bruno Silva wins by Submission in R3	1%	34.00	✗ lost
Bruno Silva wins by KO/TKO in R1	3%	13.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	6%	6.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	11%	3.30	✗ lost
Bruno Silva wins by KO/TKO in R2	2%	19.00	✗ lost
Bruno Silva wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	3%	12.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	4%	9.25	✗ lost
Édgar Cháirez wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	4%	6.75	✗ lost
Édgar Cháirez wins by KO/TKO	5%	5.50	✗ lost
Édgar Cháirez wins by KO/TKO in R1	3%	10.00	✗ lost
Bruno Silva wins by KO/TKO in R3	1%	29.00	✗ lost
Édgar Cháirez wins by KO/TKO in R2	2%	15.00	✗ lost
Édgar Cháirez wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	3%	9.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	2%	13.00	✗ lost
Édgar Cháirez wins by KO/TKO in R3	1%	21.00	✗ lost

Priscila Cachoeira

13-8-0

Winner

Chelsea Chandler

Submission · R1

✓ predicted

Chelsea Chandler

6-4-0

▼

Model Prediction

Priscila Cachoeira 49%

KO 16%· Sub 0%· Dec 33%

Chelsea Chandler ✓ won 51%

KO 11%· Sub 10%· Dec 30%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Chelsea Chandler wins	51%	1.70	✓ predicted
Method Chelsea Chandler wins by Decision	30%	2.95	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	63%	1.94	missed

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Priscila Cachoeira wins by DEC value	33%	5.30	✗ lost
Priscila Cachoeira wins by Decision value	33%	5.00	✗ lost
Priscila Cachoeira wins by Sub or Decision value	33%	4.70	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	63%	1.94	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision value	63%	1.92	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	67%	1.66	✗ lost
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision value	70%	1.56	✗ lost
Priscila Cachoeira wins by KO or Decision	49%	2.20	✗ lost
Priscila Cachoeira wins	49%	2.15	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 2	81%	1.22	✗ lost
Chelsea Chandler wins by DEC	30%	2.95	✗ lost
Chelsea Chandler wins in R3+ or by Decision	36%	2.50	✗ lost
Chelsea Chandler wins by KO or Decision	41%	2.12	✗ lost
Chelsea Chandler wins	51%	1.70	✓ won
Chelsea Chandler wins by Sub or Decision	40%	2.12	✓ won
Chelsea Chandler wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	9%	8.50	✗ lost
Chelsea Chandler wins by KO/TKO	11%	6.75	✗ lost
Chelsea Chandler wins by KO or Sub	21%	3.60	✓ won
Chelsea Chandler wins by KO/TKO in R1	6%	13.00	✗ lost
Finish before Round 2	19%	4.00	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 1	19%	3.90	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	14%	5.30	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	33%	2.10	✓ won
Chelsea Chandler wins by Submission in R1 or R2	8%	8.50	✓ won
Fight ends before decision	37%	1.80	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO	27%	2.45	✗ lost
Chelsea Chandler wins by SUB	10%	6.75	✓ won
Chelsea Chandler wins by Submission in R1	5%	13.00	✓ won
Chelsea Chandler wins by KO/TKO in R2	4%	17.00	✗ lost
Chelsea Chandler wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	6%	11.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	12%	5.10	✗ lost
Priscila Cachoeira wins by KO/TKO in R1	8%	7.50	✗ lost
Priscila Cachoeira wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	13%	4.60	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	9%	6.75	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	5%	11.50	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission	10%	5.80	✓ won
Priscila Cachoeira wins by KO/TKO	16%	3.60	✗ lost
Chelsea Chandler wins by Submission in R2	3%	17.00	✗ lost
Priscila Cachoeira wins by KO or Sub	16%	3.30	✗ lost
Priscila Cachoeira wins by KO/TKO in R2	5%	9.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	3%	15.00	✗ lost
Priscila Cachoeira wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	8%	6.00	✗ lost
Chelsea Chandler wins by KO/TKO in R3	2%	23.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	6%	7.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	4%	9.25	✗ lost
Chelsea Chandler wins by Submission in R3	2%	23.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	2%	21.00	✗ lost
Priscila Cachoeira wins by KO/TKO in R3	3%	12.50	✗ lost

Joanderson Brito

18-5-1

Winner

Joanderson Brito

Submission · R1

✓ predicted

Jordan Leavitt

13-3-0

▼

Model Prediction

Joanderson Brito ✓ won 54%

KO 12%· Sub 25%· Dec 17%

Jordan Leavitt 46%

KO 7%· Sub 16%· Dec 24%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Joanderson Brito wins	54%	1.58	✓ predicted
Finish round Finish in Round 1	30%	—	✓ predicted

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Jordan Leavitt wins	46%	2.25	✗ lost
Joanderson Brito wins	54%	1.58	✓ won

Yuneisy Duben

6-1-0

Winner

Jeisla Chaves

Decision (S) · R3

✓ predicted

Jeisla Chaves

1-0-0

▼

Model Prediction

Yuneisy Duben 28%

KO 8%· Sub 5%· Dec 14%

Jeisla Chaves ✓ won 72%

KO 29%· Sub 4%· Dec 39%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Jeisla Chaves wins	72%	1.35	✓ predicted
Method Jeisla Chaves wins by Decision value	39%	3.10	✓ predicted
Finish round Goes the distance	54%	2.04	✓ predicted

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Jeisla Chaves wins by DEC value	39%	3.10	✓ won
Jeisla Chaves wins by Decision value	39%	3.00	✓ won
Yuneisy Duben wins by Submission in R1 or R2	4%	26.00	✗ lost
Jeisla Chaves wins by KO or Decision value	68%	1.67	✓ won
Yuneisy Duben wins by Submission in R1	3%	41.00	✗ lost
Yuneisy Duben wins by SUB	5%	21.00	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	54%	2.04	✓ won
Fight goes to Decision	54%	2.00	✓ won
Yuneisy Duben wins by Submission in R2	2%	61.00	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	57%	1.80	✓ won
Jeisla Chaves wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	24%	4.25	✗ lost
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	61%	1.65	✓ won
Jeisla Chaves wins by KO/TKO in R1	15%	6.75	✗ lost
Jeisla Chaves wins by KO/TKO	29%	3.40	✗ lost
Jeisla Chaves wins	72%	1.35	✓ won
Fight reaches Round 2	76%	1.28	✓ won
Yuneisy Duben wins by Sub or Decision	20%	4.70	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	19%	4.90	✗ lost
Jeisla Chaves wins by Sub or Decision	44%	2.12	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO	37%	2.45	✗ lost
Yuneisy Duben wins	28%	3.23	✗ lost
Yuneisy Duben wins by Submission in R3	1%	101.00	✗ lost
Jeisla Chaves wins by KO/TKO in R2	9%	9.25	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	43%	2.00	✗ lost
Jeisla Chaves wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	14%	6.00	✗ lost
Finish before Round 3	39%	2.15	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 1	24%	3.50	✗ lost
Yuneisy Duben wins in R3+ or by Decision	17%	4.90	✗ lost
Yuneisy Duben wins by KO or Sub	13%	6.25	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	12%	6.75	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	46%	1.72	✗ lost
Yuneisy Duben wins by DEC	14%	5.50	✗ lost
Yuneisy Duben wins by KO or Decision	22%	3.45	✗ lost
Jeisla Chaves wins by KO or Sub	33%	2.25	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	15%	4.90	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	6%	10.50	✗ lost
Jeisla Chaves wins by KO/TKO in R3	5%	13.00	✗ lost
Yuneisy Duben wins by KO/TKO	8%	7.75	✗ lost
Yuneisy Duben wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	7%	9.25	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	8%	7.50	✗ lost
Yuneisy Duben wins by KO/TKO in R1	4%	14.00	✗ lost
Yuneisy Duben wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	4%	14.00	✗ lost
Yuneisy Duben wins by KO/TKO in R2	3%	21.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	5%	9.75	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	10%	5.00	✗ lost
Yuneisy Duben wins by KO/TKO in R3	1%	34.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	3%	13.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	2%	19.00	✗ lost
Jeisla Chaves wins by Submission in R1 or R2	4%	7.25	✗ lost
Jeisla Chaves wins by SUB	4%	6.00	✗ lost
Jeisla Chaves wins by Submission in R1	2%	11.50	✗ lost
Jeisla Chaves wins by Submission in R2 or R3	2%	10.00	✗ lost
Jeisla Chaves wins by Submission in R2	1%	15.00	✗ lost
Jeisla Chaves wins by Submission in R3	1%	23.00	✗ lost

Ariane Carnelossi

15-4-0

Winner

Ketlen Souza

KO/TKO · R1

✓ predicted

Ketlen Souza

16-6-0

▼

Model Prediction

Ariane Carnelossi 27%

KO 7%· Sub 5%· Dec 15%

Ketlen Souza ✓ won 73%

KO 16%· Sub 13%· Dec 44%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Ketlen Souza wins	73%	1.30	✓ predicted
Method Ketlen Souza wins by Decision	44%	2.03	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	59%	2.37	missed

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Ariane Carnelossi wins by Submission in R1	3%	46.00	✗ lost
Finish before Round 2	21%	5.20	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission in R1	9%	12.00	✗ lost
Ariane Carnelossi wins by Submission in R1 or R2	4%	26.00	✗ lost
Ariane Carnelossi wins by SUB	5%	21.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	18%	5.75	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	38%	2.62	✓ won
Ariane Carnelossi wins by Sub or Decision	20%	4.90	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	41%	2.37	✓ won
Ariane Carnelossi wins	27%	3.57	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	12%	8.00	✓ won
Ketlen Souza wins by finish in Round 1	15%	6.50	✓ won
Ketlen Souza wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	14%	7.00	✓ won
Ketlen Souza wins	73%	1.30	✓ won
Ketlen Souza wins by Submission in R1 or R2	10%	9.00	✗ lost
Ketlen Souza wins by KO or Sub	29%	3.25	✓ won
Ketlen Souza wins by KO/TKO in R1	8%	11.00	✓ won
Ketlen Souza wins by Sub or Decision	56%	1.64	✗ lost
Ketlen Souza wins by KO or Decision	60%	1.53	✓ won
Ketlen Souza wins by Decision	44%	2.10	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	59%	1.54	✗ lost
Ketlen Souza wins by KO/TKO	16%	5.50	✓ won
Ariane Carnelossi wins by Decision	15%	6.00	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 2	79%	1.14	✗ lost
Ketlen Souza wins by Submission in R1	6%	14.00	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	59%	1.53	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	62%	1.44	✗ lost
Ketlen Souza wins by DEC	44%	2.03	✗ lost
Ariane Carnelossi wins by DEC	15%	5.90	✗ lost
Ketlen Souza wins by SUB	13%	7.00	✗ lost
Ariane Carnelossi wins by KO or Decision	22%	3.90	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	13%	6.50	✗ lost
Ariane Carnelossi wins by KO or Sub	12%	7.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	24%	3.60	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission in R2	6%	15.00	✗ lost
Ariane Carnelossi wins by Submission in R2	2%	51.00	✗ lost
Ketlen Souza wins by Submission in R2	4%	19.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	8%	10.00	✗ lost
Ketlen Souza wins by KO/TKO in R2	5%	14.00	✗ lost
Ariane Carnelossi wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	6%	12.00	✗ lost
Ketlen Souza wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	8%	9.00	✗ lost
Ketlen Souza wins by Submission in R2 or R3	6%	11.50	✗ lost
Ariane Carnelossi wins by KO/TKO in R1	4%	19.00	✗ lost
Ariane Carnelossi wins by finish in Round 1	6%	11.00	✗ lost
Ariane Carnelossi wins by KO/TKO	7%	9.25	✗ lost
Ketlen Souza wins by finish in Round 1	15%	4.30	✓ won
Ariane Carnelossi wins by Submission in R3	1%	71.00	✗ lost
Ariane Carnelossi wins by finish in Round 1	6%	9.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	7%	8.00	✗ lost
Ariane Carnelossi wins by KO/TKO in R2	2%	23.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	3%	18.00	✗ lost
Ariane Carnelossi wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	4%	14.00	✗ lost
Ketlen Souza wins by KO/TKO in R3	3%	18.00	✗ lost
Ketlen Souza wins by Submission in R3	2%	23.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	4%	12.00	✗ lost
Ariane Carnelossi wins by KO/TKO in R3	1%	29.00	✗ lost