UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim — Results & Recap

Track record

Every pick, graded

What the model said before each fight, what happened, and the locked bets it would have placed. Losses stay on the page.

221 / 330

Correct Picks

67.0% accuracy · 32 events

12 / 22

Parlay Legs

12 parlays · −$576

+$852

Running P&L · locked picks

$1000 / event · Conservative · Kelly-weighted · closing: +$609

77 of 111 confident picks landed — when the model gives a fighter 70%+ it has been right 69% of the time

20–30 betting record with the same amount on every recommended bet (-2.3 units — early days, small sample)

Bankroll curve $1000 per event · Conservative tier · locked picks +$852

2026-06-15 peak $990 · trough $-1008 2026-10-31

From 17 Oct 2026 each card's picks are locked 24 hours before its first bout, as the site showed them then. Earlier cards were locked when their first prop market opened, days to weeks before the card.

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan 2026-10-31 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-10-30 21:02 UTC (24h before) · +$268

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Luana Santos wins	Yana Santos vs Luana Santos	1.35	$80	✓ won +$28
Theodor Berggren wins by Sub or Decision	Theodor Berggren vs Rodrigo Sezinando	4.90	$66	✗ lost −$66
Jacobe Smith wins by KO or Decision	Randy Brown vs Jacobe Smith	1.86	$63	✓ won +$54
Zach Reese wins by DEC	Mickey Gall vs Zach Reese	8.50	$34	✓ won +$252

UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev 2026-10-24 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-10-23 14:02 UTC (24h before) · +$303

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Daniel Santos wins by KO or Decision	Daniel Santos vs Bolaji Oki	2.45	$80	✓ won +$116
Jacob Malkoun wins	Abubakar Vagaev vs Jacob Malkoun	2.32	$80	✗ lost −$80
Ramazan Temirov wins by KO or Decision	Ramazan Temirov vs Lone'er Kavanagh	1.99	$70	✗ lost −$70
Colby Thicknesse wins by Sub or Decision	Colby Thicknesse vs Asaf Chopurov	6.25	$64	✓ won +$337

UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott 2026-10-17 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-10-16 21:24 UTC (24h before) · −$80

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Nate Landwehr wins by KO or Decision	Nate Landwehr vs Mandel Nallo	4.70	$80	✗ lost −$80

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan 2026-10-10 · $1000 Conservative · even split · locked 2026-09-19 15:16 UTC · +$1220

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Brendan Allen wins	Brendan Allen vs Christian Leroy Duncan	2.22	$1000	✓ won +$1220

UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 2026-09-19 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-09-09 12:20 UTC · +$11

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Dooho Choi wins	Patricio Pitbull vs Dooho Choi	1.39	$72	✗ lost −$72
Edmen Shahbazyan wins	Edmen Shahbazyan vs Brunno Ferreira	1.59	$63	✓ won +$37
Joshua Van wins	Alexandre Pantoja vs Joshua Van	1.85	$54	✓ won +$46

Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado 2026-09-12 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-09-09 12:20 UTC · −$95

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Jose Delgado wins	Jean Silva vs Jose Delgado	4.25	—	⋯ pending
Rafa Garcia wins	Rafa Garcia vs Rongzhu	2.53	$74	✗ lost −$74
Marwan Rahiki wins	Tommy McMillen vs Marwan Rahiki	2.37	$21	✗ lost −$21

UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse 2026-09-05 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-09-02 09:47 UTC · −$52

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Mario Pinto wins	Ryan Spann vs Mario Pinto	1.35	$80	✓ won +$28
Dan Hooker wins	Dan Hooker vs Salahdine Parnasse	5.75	$80	✗ lost −$80

UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song 2026-08-29 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-08-25 11:10 UTC · −$4

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Julia Polastri wins	Xiong Jingnan vs Julia Polastri	1.45	—	⋯ pending
Nilson Rojas wins	Bilal Hasan vs Nilson Rojas	5.50	$80	✗ lost −$80
Denise Gomes wins	Yan Xiaonan vs Denise Gomes	2.32	$57	✓ won +$76

UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues 2026-08-22 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-08-19 09:05 UTC · −$111

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Terrance Chatman wins	Anthony Wint vs Terrance Chatman	8.00	$80	✗ lost −$80
Ryan Kuse wins	Marcio Barbosa vs Ryan Kuse	7.00	$31	✗ lost −$31

UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry 2026-08-15 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-07-29 12:37 UTC · −$80

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Gillian Robertson wins	Mackenzie Dern vs Gillian Robertson	2.72	$80	✗ lost −$80

UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld 2026-08-08 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-08-04 11:58 UTC · −$75

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Louie Sutherland wins	Henrique Da Silva Lopes vs Louie Sutherland	1.63	—	⋯ pending
Guilherme Pat wins	Steven Asplund vs Guilherme Pat	3.02	$49	✗ lost −$49
Jessie Rosas wins	Miles Johns vs Jessie Rosas	2.33	—	⋯ pending
Amanda Lemos wins	Amanda Lemos vs Alexia Thainara	3.02	$27	✗ lost −$27

UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez 2026-08-01 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-07-28 16:52 UTC · −$56

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Mateusz Rebecki wins	Kyle Prepolec vs Mateusz Rebecki	1.18	$80	✓ won +$14
Oban Elliott wins	Oban Elliott vs Michael Oliveira	3.57	$80	✗ lost −$80
Bogdan Grad wins	Dennis Buzukja vs Bogdan Grad	1.52	$62	✓ won +$32
Fight goes to Decision	Daniel Rodriguez vs Uros Medic	7.25	$22	✗ lost −$22

UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov 2026-07-25 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-07-21 13:32 UTC · −$102

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Nurullo Aliev wins	Mike Davis vs Nurullo Aliev	1.54	$80	✓ won +$43
Tyrell Fortune wins	Rizvan Kuniev vs Tyrell Fortune	3.34	$80	✗ lost −$80
Damian Rzepecki wins	Magomed Zaynukov vs Damian Rzepecki	3.73	$43	✗ lost −$43
Dustin Jacoby wins	Dustin Jacoby vs Muhammad Said	1.59	$23	✗ lost −$23

UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman 2026-07-18 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-07-14 09:24 UTC · +$38

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Chase Hooper wins	Chase Hooper vs Mitch Ramirez	1.27	$80	✓ won +$22
Christian Leroy Duncan wins	Jared Cannonier vs Christian Leroy Duncan	1.32	$80	✓ won +$26
Dricus Du Plessis wins by SUB	Kamaru Usman vs Dricus Du Plessis	9.25	$55	✗ lost −$55
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani wins	Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs Seokhyeon Ko	2.66	$28	✓ won +$46

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 2026-07-11 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly · locked 2026-06-07 13:59 UTC · −$200

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Elisha Ellison wins	Gable Steveson vs Elisha Ellison	10.00	$138	✗ lost −$138
Benoit Saint Denis wins	Paddy Pimblett vs Benoit Saint Denis	1.53	$62	✗ lost −$62

UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres 2026-06-27 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly · locked 2026-06-24 16:05 UTC · −$216

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Manuel Torres wins	Rafael Fiziev vs Manuel Torres	1.96	$115	✗ lost −$115
Eric Nolan wins by Sub or Decision	Eric Nolan vs Farman Hasanov	5.30	$70	✗ lost −$70
Matheus Camilo wins	Nazim Sadykhov vs Matheus Camilo	2.99	$48	✓ won +$95
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	Julius Walker vs Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev	3.92	$44	✗ lost −$44
Fight reaches Round 2	Julius Walker vs Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev	2.17	$44	✗ lost −$44
Michel Pereira wins	Michel Pereira vs Shara Magomedov	3.82	$37	✗ lost −$37

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi 2 2026-06-20 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly · locked 2026-06-16 17:28 UTC · +$109

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Luana Santos wins	Karol Rosa vs Luana Santos	1.97	$157	✓ won +$152
Kyoji Horiguchi wins by KO/TKO	Kyoji Horiguchi vs Manel Kape	11.50	$43	✗ lost −$43

UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje 2026-06-15 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly · locked 2026-06-07 13:59 UTC · −$26

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Josh Hokit wins by KO or Decision	Derrick Lewis vs Josh Hokit	1.78	$73	✓ won +$57
Ilia Topuria wins by DEC	Justin Gaethje vs Ilia Topuria	13.00	$57	✗ lost −$57
Steve Garcia wins	Steve Garcia vs Diego Lopes	2.48	$52	✗ lost −$52
Bo Nickal wins by KO or Decision	Kyle Daukaus vs Bo Nickal	1.71	$38	✓ won +$27

12 / 22

Legs landed

54.5% of picks

3 / 12

Parlays won

every leg has to land

−$576

Profit

$100 on each

Only 12 parlays settled so far — far too few to judge the profit either way. On 91 past cards, parlays picked this way landed 65% of the time.

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan 2026-10-31 · +$138

2-leg @ 2.38 Fight reaches Round 3 @ 1.28Jacobe Smith wins by KO or Decision @ 1.86 ✓ WON +$138

UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev 2026-10-24 · −$100

2-leg @ 4.38 Ends in Round 3+ / Decision @ 2.20Ramazan Temirov wins by KO or Decision @ 1.99 ✗ LOST −$100

UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott 2026-10-17 · −$100

2-leg @ 2.80 Melissa Croden wins @ 1.31Ends in Round 3+ / Decision @ 2.14 ✗ LOST −$100

UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 2026-09-19 · −$100

2-leg @ 2.21 Dooho Choi wins @ 1.39Edmen Shahbazyan wins @ 1.59 ✗ LOST −$100

Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado 2026-09-12 · −$100

2-leg @ 3.35 Ends in Round 3+ / Decision @ 2.22Edgar Chairez wins @ 1.51 ✗ LOST −$100

UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse 2026-09-05 · +$107

2-leg @ 2.07 Mario Pinto wins @ 1.35Felipe Lima wins @ 1.53 ✓ WON +$107

UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song 2026-08-29 · −$100

2-leg @ 1.81 Julia Polastri wins @ 1.45Ends in Round 3+ / Decision @ 1.25 ✗ LOST −$100

UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues 2026-08-22 · −$100

2-leg @ 2.31 Fight reaches Round 2 @ 1.30Gauge Young wins @ 1.78 ✗ LOST −$100

UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez 2026-08-01 · +$79

2-leg @ 1.79 Mateusz Rebecki wins @ 1.18Bogdan Grad wins @ 1.52 ✓ WON +$79

UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov 2026-07-25 · −$100

2-leg @ 2.45 Dustin Jacoby wins @ 1.59Nurullo Aliev wins @ 1.54 ✗ LOST −$100

UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman 2026-07-18 · −$100

2-leg @ 2.24 Christian Leroy Duncan wins @ 1.32Alvin Hines wins @ 1.70 ✗ LOST −$100

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 2026-07-11 · −$100

2-leg @ 1.99 Damian Pinas wins @ 1.46Fight reaches Round 2 @ 1.36 ✗ LOST −$100

UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim 10/12 · 83%

2026-06-06

Belal Muhammad

24-5-0

Winner

Gabriel Bonfim

Decision (U) · R5

✓ predicted

Gabriel Bonfim

19-1-0

Model Prediction

Belal Muhammad 33%

KO 13%· Sub 3%· Dec 17%

Gabriel Bonfim ✓ won 67%

KO 17%· Sub 14%· Dec 35%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Gabriel Bonfim wins value	67%	1.91	✓ predicted
Method Gabriel Bonfim wins by Decision value	35%	5.80	✓ predicted
Finish round Goes the distance	53%	1.94	✓ predicted

Every Sportsbet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Gabriel Bonfim wins by DEC value	35%	5.80	✓ won
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	67%	2.50	✓ won
Gabriel Bonfim wins by Sub or Decision value	50%	2.95	✓ won
Gabriel Bonfim wins in R4+ or by Decision value	40%	3.60	✓ won
Gabriel Bonfim wins by KO or Decision value	53%	2.70	✓ won
Belal Muhammad wins by KO/TKO in R1	6%	23.00	✗ lost
Belal Muhammad wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	9%	14.00	✗ lost
Gabriel Bonfim wins value	67%	1.91	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	13%	9.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 1	21%	5.75	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	63%	1.80	✓ won
Finish before Round 2	21%	5.40	✗ lost
Belal Muhammad wins by KO/TKO	13%	8.00	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	53%	1.94	✓ won
Fight goes to Decision	53%	1.92	✓ won
Belal Muhammad wins by KO/TKO in R2	3%	29.00	✗ lost
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	67%	1.49	✓ won
Gabriel Bonfim wins by KO/TKO in R1	8%	13.00	✗ lost
Gabriel Bonfim wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	12%	8.00	✗ lost
Gabriel Bonfim wins by Submission in R1	6%	15.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	30%	3.10	✗ lost
Gabriel Bonfim wins by Submission in R1 or R2	10%	9.25	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 5	55%	1.71	✓ won
Gabriel Bonfim significant strikes over 19.5	83%	1.11	—
Gabriel Bonfim significant strikes over 29.5	75%	1.20	—
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	8%	11.00	✗ lost
Belal Muhammad significant strikes over 19.5	80%	1.10	—
Total significant strikes over 49.5	77%	1.13	—
Belal Muhammad significant strikes over 59.5	55%	1.57	—
Belal Muhammad significant strikes over 39.5	66%	1.30	—
Total significant strikes over 59.5	73%	1.18	—
Belal Muhammad wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	5%	16.00	✗ lost
Gabriel Bonfim significant strikes over 39.5	66%	1.30	—
Total significant strikes over 69.5	70%	1.23	—
Fight ends by Submission in R1	7%	11.50	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 89.5	64%	1.35	—
Total significant strikes over 79.5	67%	1.28	—
Fight ends before decision	47%	1.80	✗ lost
Belal Muhammad significant strikes over 49.5	61%	1.40	—
Total significant strikes over 99.5	60%	1.41	—
Belal Muhammad significant strikes over 69.5	49%	1.72	—
Total significant strikes over 109.5	57%	1.48	—
Total significant strikes over 129.5	51%	1.66	—
Belal Muhammad significant strikes over 29.5	72%	1.17	—
Total significant strikes over 119.5	54%	1.56	—
Total significant strikes over 139.5	48%	1.77	—
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	12%	6.75	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 149.5	44%	1.89	—
Total significant strikes over 159.5	41%	2.03	—
Gabriel Bonfim significant strikes over 49.5	57%	1.45	—
Total significant strikes over 169.5	38%	2.20	—
Total takedowns over 0.5	76%	1.09	—
Gabriel Bonfim wins by KO or Sub	32%	2.60	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 179.5	34%	2.40	—
Belal Muhammad significant strikes over 79.5	40%	2.00	—
Gabriel Bonfim significant strikes over 59.5	48%	1.67	—
Total significant strikes over 189.5	31%	2.60	—
Total significant strikes over 199.5	28%	2.90	—
Gabriel Bonfim wins by KO/TKO	17%	4.60	✗ lost
Belal Muhammad wins by KO or Sub	16%	5.00	✗ lost
Gabriel Bonfim wins by SUB	14%	5.40	✗ lost
Belal Muhammad takedowns over 0.5	58%	1.33	—
Gabriel Bonfim takedowns over 0.5	47%	1.62	—
Gabriel Bonfim significant strikes over 69.5	40%	1.91	—
Belal Muhammad significant strikes over 89.5	31%	2.30	—
Gabriel Bonfim wins by KO/TKO in R2	5%	16.00	✗ lost
Gabriel Bonfim significant strikes over 79.5	31%	2.25	—
Under 2.5 rounds	37%	1.90	✗ lost
Gabriel Bonfim wins by Submission in R2	4%	18.00	✗ lost
Gabriel Bonfim wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	7%	9.75	✗ lost
Belal Muhammad wins by KO or Decision	31%	2.18	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 1.5	53%	1.23	—
Total significant strikes over 209.5	20%	3.20	—
Gabriel Bonfim wins by Submission in R2, R3 or R4	7%	8.75	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	17%	3.80	✗ lost
Gabriel Bonfim significant strikes over 89.5	24%	2.70	—
Belal Muhammad wins	33%	1.93	✗ lost
Belal Muhammad wins by KO/TKO in R3 or R4	3%	19.00	✗ lost
Gabriel Bonfim significant strikes over 99.5	19%	3.25	—
Belal Muhammad significant strikes over 99.5	23%	2.70	—
Belal Muhammad wins by KO/TKO in R4	1%	41.00	✗ lost
Belal Muhammad wins by KO/TKO in R3	2%	31.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	4%	13.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	4%	13.00	✗ lost
Gabriel Bonfim significant strikes over 109.5	15%	3.75	—
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	7%	8.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R4	3%	16.00	✗ lost
Belal Muhammad significant strikes over 109.5	17%	3.20	—
Gabriel Bonfim takedowns over 1.5	24%	2.10	—
Total takedowns over 2.5	37%	1.38	—
Fight ends by finish in Round 4	5%	9.75	✗ lost
Gabriel Bonfim wins by KO/TKO in R3 or R4	4%	11.50	✗ lost
Belal Muhammad wins by DEC	17%	2.80	✗ lost
Gabriel Bonfim significant strikes over 119.5	11%	4.50	—
Belal Muhammad wins in R4+ or by Decision	20%	2.45	✗ lost
Gabriel Bonfim takedowns over 2.5	18%	2.63	—
Gabriel Bonfim wins by KO/TKO in R3	2%	19.00	✗ lost
Belal Muhammad wins by KO/TKO in R4 or R5	2%	23.00	✗ lost
Belal Muhammad wins by Sub or Decision	20%	2.30	✗ lost
Gabriel Bonfim wins by Submission in R3, R4 or R5	4%	10.50	✗ lost
Gabriel Bonfim wins by Submission in R3	2%	21.00	✗ lost
Gabriel Bonfim wins by KO/TKO in R4	2%	23.00	✗ lost
Gabriel Bonfim takedowns over 3.5	12%	3.40	—
Gabriel Bonfim wins by Submission in R4	2%	26.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	2%	16.00	✗ lost
Belal Muhammad significant strikes over 119.5	10%	3.75	—
Gabriel Bonfim wins by KO/TKO in R4 or R5	3%	14.00	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 3.5	23%	1.58	—
Gabriel Bonfim significant strikes over 129.5	6%	5.50	—
Fight ends by Submission in R4	2%	19.00	✗ lost
Belal Muhammad wins by Submission in R1	1%	31.00	✗ lost
Belal Muhammad wins by Submission in R1 or R2	2%	19.00	✗ lost
Belal Muhammad takedowns over 1.5	19%	1.62	—
Gabriel Bonfim takedowns over 4.5	6%	4.50	—
Total takedowns over 4.5	14%	1.88	—
Belal Muhammad wins by SUB	3%	10.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R5	1%	19.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 5	2%	11.50	✗ lost
Belal Muhammad wins by Submission in R2	1%	34.00	✗ lost
Belal Muhammad wins by Submission in R2, R3 or R4	1%	17.00	✗ lost
Gabriel Bonfim wins by KO/TKO in R5	1%	29.00	✗ lost
Gabriel Bonfim wins by Submission in R5	1%	31.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R5	1%	23.00	✗ lost
Belal Muhammad takedowns over 2.5	8%	1.91	—
Gabriel Bonfim significant strikes over 139.5	2%	7.00	—
Belal Muhammad significant strikes over 129.5	3%	4.50	—
Belal Muhammad wins by Submission in R3, R4 or R5	1%	19.00	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 5.5	6%	2.20	—
Total significant strikes over 219.5	2%	3.50	—
Total knockdowns over 0.5	2%	2.05	—

Yuneisy Duben

6-1-0

Winner

Jeisla Chaves

Decision (S) · R3

✓ predicted

Jeisla Chaves

1-0-0

Model Prediction

Yuneisy Duben 28%

KO 8%· Sub 5%· Dec 14%

Jeisla Chaves ✓ won 72%

KO 29%· Sub 4%· Dec 39%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Jeisla Chaves wins	72%	1.35	✓ predicted
Method Jeisla Chaves wins by Decision	39%	3.10	✓ predicted
Finish round Goes the distance	54%	2.04	✓ predicted

Every Sportsbet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Jeisla Chaves wins by DEC	39%	3.10	✓ won
Jeisla Chaves wins by Decision	39%	3.00	✓ won
Yuneisy Duben wins by Submission in R1 or R2	4%	26.00	✗ lost
Jeisla Chaves wins by KO or Decision value	68%	1.67	✓ won
Yuneisy Duben wins by Submission in R1	3%	41.00	✗ lost
Yuneisy Duben wins by SUB	5%	21.00	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	54%	2.04	✓ won
Fight goes to Decision	54%	2.00	✓ won
Yuneisy Duben wins by Submission in R2	2%	61.00	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	57%	1.80	✓ won
Jeisla Chaves wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	24%	4.25	✗ lost
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	61%	1.65	✓ won
Jeisla Chaves wins by KO/TKO in R1	15%	6.75	✗ lost
Jeisla Chaves wins by KO/TKO	29%	3.40	✗ lost
Jeisla Chaves wins	72%	1.35	✓ won
Fight reaches Round 2	76%	1.28	✓ won
Yuneisy Duben wins by Sub or Decision	20%	4.70	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	19%	4.90	✗ lost
Jeisla Chaves wins by Sub or Decision	44%	2.12	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO	37%	2.45	✗ lost
Yuneisy Duben wins	28%	3.23	✗ lost
Yuneisy Duben wins by Submission in R3	1%	101.00	✗ lost
Jeisla Chaves wins by KO/TKO in R2	9%	9.25	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	43%	2.00	✗ lost
Jeisla Chaves wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	14%	6.00	✗ lost
Finish before Round 3	39%	2.15	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 1	24%	3.50	✗ lost
Yuneisy Duben wins in R3+ or by Decision	17%	4.90	✗ lost
Yuneisy Duben wins by KO or Sub	13%	6.25	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	12%	6.75	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	46%	1.72	✗ lost
Yuneisy Duben wins by DEC	14%	5.50	✗ lost
Yuneisy Duben wins by KO or Decision	22%	3.45	✗ lost
Jeisla Chaves wins by KO or Sub	33%	2.25	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	15%	4.90	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	6%	10.50	✗ lost
Jeisla Chaves wins by KO/TKO in R3	5%	13.00	✗ lost
Yuneisy Duben wins by KO/TKO	8%	7.75	✗ lost
Yuneisy Duben wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	7%	9.25	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	8%	7.50	✗ lost
Yuneisy Duben wins by KO/TKO in R1	4%	14.00	✗ lost
Yuneisy Duben wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	4%	14.00	✗ lost
Yuneisy Duben wins by KO/TKO in R2	3%	21.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	5%	9.75	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	10%	5.00	✗ lost
Yuneisy Duben wins by KO/TKO in R3	1%	34.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	3%	13.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	2%	19.00	✗ lost
Jeisla Chaves wins by Submission in R1 or R2	4%	7.25	✗ lost
Jeisla Chaves wins by SUB	4%	6.00	✗ lost
Jeisla Chaves wins by Submission in R1	2%	11.50	✗ lost
Jeisla Chaves wins by Submission in R2 or R3	2%	10.00	✗ lost
Jeisla Chaves wins by Submission in R2	1%	15.00	✗ lost
Jeisla Chaves wins by Submission in R3	1%	23.00	✗ lost

Priscila Cachoeira

13-8-0

Winner

Chelsea Chandler

SUB · R1

✓ predicted

Chelsea Chandler

6-4-0

Model Prediction

Priscila Cachoeira 49%

KO 16%· Sub 0%· Dec 33%

Chelsea Chandler ✓ won 51%

KO 11%· Sub 10%· Dec 30%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Chelsea Chandler wins	51%	1.70	✓ predicted
Method Chelsea Chandler wins by Decision	30%	2.95	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	63%	1.94	missed

Every Sportsbet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Priscila Cachoeira wins by DEC value	33%	5.30	✗ lost
Priscila Cachoeira wins by Decision value	33%	5.00	✗ lost
Priscila Cachoeira wins by Sub or Decision value	33%	4.70	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	63%	1.94	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	63%	1.92	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	67%	1.66	✗ lost
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	70%	1.56	✗ lost
Priscila Cachoeira wins by KO or Decision	49%	2.20	✗ lost
Priscila Cachoeira wins	49%	2.15	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 2	81%	1.22	✗ lost
Chelsea Chandler wins by DEC	30%	2.95	✗ lost
Chelsea Chandler wins in R3+ or by Decision	36%	2.50	✗ lost
Chelsea Chandler wins by KO or Decision	41%	2.12	✗ lost
Chelsea Chandler wins	51%	1.70	✓ won
Chelsea Chandler wins by Sub or Decision	40%	2.12	✓ won
Chelsea Chandler wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	9%	8.50	✗ lost
Chelsea Chandler wins by KO/TKO	11%	6.75	✗ lost
Chelsea Chandler wins by KO or Sub	21%	3.60	✓ won
Chelsea Chandler wins by KO/TKO in R1	6%	13.00	✗ lost
Finish before Round 2	19%	4.00	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 1	19%	3.90	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	14%	5.30	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	33%	2.10	✓ won
Chelsea Chandler wins by Submission in R1 or R2	8%	8.50	✓ won
Fight ends before decision	37%	1.80	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO	27%	2.45	✗ lost
Chelsea Chandler wins by SUB	10%	6.75	✓ won
Chelsea Chandler wins by Submission in R1	5%	13.00	✓ won
Chelsea Chandler wins by KO/TKO in R2	4%	17.00	✗ lost
Chelsea Chandler wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	6%	11.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	12%	5.10	✗ lost
Priscila Cachoeira wins by KO/TKO in R1	8%	7.50	✗ lost
Priscila Cachoeira wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	13%	4.60	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	9%	6.75	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	5%	11.50	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission	10%	5.80	✓ won
Priscila Cachoeira wins by KO/TKO	16%	3.60	✗ lost
Chelsea Chandler wins by Submission in R2	3%	17.00	✗ lost
Priscila Cachoeira wins by KO or Sub	16%	3.30	✗ lost
Priscila Cachoeira wins by KO/TKO in R2	5%	9.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	3%	15.00	✗ lost
Priscila Cachoeira wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	8%	6.00	✗ lost
Chelsea Chandler wins by KO/TKO in R3	2%	23.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	6%	7.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	4%	9.25	✗ lost
Chelsea Chandler wins by Submission in R3	2%	23.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	2%	21.00	✗ lost
Priscila Cachoeira wins by KO/TKO in R3	3%	12.50	✗ lost

Matt Schnell

17-10-0

Winner

Alessandro Costa

KO/TKO · R1

✓ predicted

Alessandro Costa

15-5-0

Model Prediction

Matt Schnell 26%

KO 2%· Sub 17%· Dec 7%

Alessandro Costa ✓ won 74%

KO 40%· Sub 6%· Dec 28%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Alessandro Costa wins	74%	1.21	✓ predicted
Method Alessandro Costa wins by KO/TKO	40%	1.72	✓ predicted
Finish round Finish in Round 1	34%	—	✓ predicted

Every Sportsbet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Alessandro Costa wins by DEC value	28%	9.00	✗ lost
Alessandro Costa wins by Decision value	28%	8.50	✗ lost
Matt Schnell wins by Submission in R1 or R2	15%	14.00	✗ lost
Matt Schnell wins by Submission in R1	9%	21.00	✗ lost
Matt Schnell wins by SUB	17%	11.00	✗ lost
Matt Schnell wins by Submission in R2	6%	31.00	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	35%	5.00	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	35%	4.90	✗ lost
Matt Schnell wins by Submission in R2 or R3	8%	19.00	✗ lost
Matt Schnell wins by Sub or Decision	24%	5.80	✗ lost
Alessandro Costa wins by Sub or Decision value	34%	3.80	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 3	45%	2.90	✗ lost
Matt Schnell wins by KO or Sub	19%	6.25	✗ lost
Matt Schnell wins	26%	4.45	✗ lost
Matt Schnell wins by finish in Round 1	10%	10.00	✗ lost
Alessandro Costa wins by KO or Decision	68%	1.48	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission in R2	8%	12.50	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	59%	1.61	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission	23%	4.10	✗ lost
Alessandro Costa wins	74%	1.21	✓ won
Over 2.5 rounds	41%	2.20	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	22%	4.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	12%	7.00	✗ lost
Matt Schnell wins in R3+ or by Decision	11%	7.50	✗ lost
Matt Schnell wins by Submission in R3	2%	41.00	✗ lost
Alessandro Costa wins by KO/TKO in R2	14%	6.00	✗ lost
Matt Schnell wins by finish in Round 1	10%	7.75	✗ lost
Finish before Round 3	57%	1.38	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	14%	5.30	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	65%	1.15	✓ won
Alessandro Costa wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	35%	2.03	✓ won
Alessandro Costa wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	18%	3.80	✗ lost
Matt Schnell wins by DEC	7%	10.00	✗ lost
Alessandro Costa wins by KO/TKO	40%	1.72	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO	42%	1.53	✓ won
Alessandro Costa wins by KO/TKO in R1	22%	2.95	✓ won
Alessandro Costa wins by KO or Sub	46%	1.35	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	23%	2.65	✓ won
Alessandro Costa wins by finish in Round 1	25%	2.37	✓ won
Matt Schnell wins by KO or Decision	9%	5.90	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	3%	18.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	8%	5.90	✗ lost
Alessandro Costa wins by KO/TKO in R3	5%	9.00	✗ lost
Alessandro Costa wins by finish in Round 1	25%	1.62	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	5%	7.75	✗ lost
Alessandro Costa wins by Submission in R2	2%	18.00	✗ lost
Alessandro Costa wins by Submission in R1 or R2	5%	6.75	✗ lost
Alessandro Costa wins by SUB	6%	5.80	✗ lost
Alessandro Costa wins by Submission in R1	3%	9.25	✗ lost
Matt Schnell wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	2%	14.00	✗ lost
Matt Schnell wins by KO/TKO in R2	1%	34.00	✗ lost
Matt Schnell wins by KO/TKO	2%	11.50	✗ lost
Matt Schnell wins by KO/TKO in R1	1%	21.00	✗ lost
Alessandro Costa wins by Submission in R3	1%	26.00	✗ lost
Matt Schnell wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	1%	19.00	✗ lost

Marcus McGhee

10-2-0

Winner

Marcus McGhee

Decision (U) · R3

✓ predicted

John Yannis

10-4-0

Model Prediction

Marcus McGhee ✓ won 68%

KO 21%· Sub 13%· Dec 34%

John Yannis 32%

KO 11%· Sub 3%· Dec 17%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Marcus McGhee wins	68%	1.21	✓ predicted
Method Marcus McGhee wins by Decision	34%	3.50	✓ predicted
Finish round Goes the distance	51%	2.39	✓ predicted

Every Sportsbet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
John Yannis wins value	32%	4.45	✗ lost
John Yannis wins by Sub or Decision	21%	6.50	✗ lost
John Yannis wins by KO or Decision	29%	4.60	✗ lost
John Yannis wins by DEC	17%	7.50	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	51%	2.40	✓ won
Fight goes to decision	51%	2.39	✓ won
John Yannis wins by Decision	17%	7.00	✗ lost
Marcus McGhee wins by DEC	34%	3.50	✓ won
John Yannis wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	10%	11.50	✗ lost
John Yannis wins by KO or Sub	15%	7.75	✗ lost
John Yannis wins by KO/TKO in R1	7%	17.00	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	54%	2.00	✓ won
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	56%	1.89	✓ won
John Yannis wins by KO/TKO	11%	9.50	✗ lost
John Yannis wins by Submission in R1 or R2	3%	34.00	✗ lost
John Yannis wins by Submission in R1	2%	51.00	✗ lost
Marcus McGhee wins by Sub or Decision	47%	2.10	✓ won
Marcus McGhee wins in R3+ or by Decision	38%	2.55	✓ won
John Yannis wins by SUB	3%	29.00	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 2	71%	1.33	✓ won
John Yannis wins by Submission in R2	1%	91.00	✗ lost
Finish before Round 2	29%	3.14	✗ lost
John Yannis wins by finish in Round 1	8%	10.50	✗ lost
John Yannis wins by KO/TKO in R2	3%	26.00	✗ lost
Marcus McGhee wins by KO or Decision	55%	1.57	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	19%	4.40	✗ lost
Marcus McGhee wins	68%	1.21	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission in R1	10%	8.25	✗ lost
John Yannis wins by finish in Round 1	8%	9.50	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	46%	1.72	✗ lost
John Yannis wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	5%	17.00	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	49%	1.53	✗ lost
Marcus McGhee wins by Submission in R1	8%	9.25	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	17%	4.30	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	32%	2.18	✗ lost
Marcus McGhee wins by Submission in R1 or R2	12%	5.75	✗ lost
Marcus McGhee wins by KO/TKO in R1	12%	5.50	✗ lost
Marcus McGhee wins by SUB	13%	4.80	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	15%	4.25	✗ lost
Marcus McGhee wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	19%	3.30	✗ lost
Marcus McGhee wins by KO or Sub	35%	1.78	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	10%	6.00	✗ lost
Marcus McGhee wins by KO/TKO	21%	2.70	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	5%	11.00	✗ lost
Marcus McGhee wins by Submission in R2	4%	12.00	✗ lost
Marcus McGhee wins by Submission in R2 or R3	6%	8.25	✗ lost
Marcus McGhee wins by KO/TKO in R2	6%	7.00	✗ lost
Marcus McGhee wins by finish in Round 1	20%	2.15	✗ lost
Marcus McGhee wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	9%	4.90	✗ lost
John Yannis wins by KO/TKO in R3	1%	34.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	5%	7.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	4%	9.75	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	2%	18.00	✗ lost
Marcus McGhee wins by Submission in R3	1%	19.00	✗ lost
Marcus McGhee wins by KO/TKO in R3	2%	12.00	✗ lost

Junior Tafa

7-5-0

Winner

Iwo Baraniewski

KO/TKO · R1

✓ predicted

Iwo Baraniewski

8-0-0

Model Prediction

Junior Tafa 28%

KO 16%· Sub 2%· Dec 10%

Iwo Baraniewski ✓ won 72%

KO 34%· Sub 15%· Dec 24%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Iwo Baraniewski wins	72%	1.24	✓ predicted
Method Iwo Baraniewski wins by KO/TKO	34%	1.91	✓ predicted
Finish round Finish in Round 1	39%	—	✓ predicted

Every Sportsbet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Iwo Baraniewski wins by DEC value	24%	13.00	✗ lost
Iwo Baraniewski wins in R3+ or by Decision value	30%	9.50	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	34%	7.75	✗ lost
Junior Tafa takedowns over 0.5	24%	11.00	—
Fight goes to decision	34%	7.50	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 3	41%	5.40	✗ lost
Junior Tafa wins by DEC	10%	19.00	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	62%	2.87	✓ won
Junior Tafa significant strikes over 39.5	33%	5.00	—
Junior Tafa significant strikes over 29.5	44%	3.60	—
Junior Tafa significant strikes over 49.5	22%	7.00	—
Junior Tafa wins in R3+ or by Decision	12%	13.00	✗ lost
Junior Tafa wins by Sub or Decision	12%	12.50	✗ lost
Junior Tafa significant strikes over 19.5	59%	2.40	—
Total significant strikes over 59.5	45%	3.10	—
Total significant strikes over 49.5	53%	2.55	—
Total significant strikes over 69.5	38%	3.60	—
Iwo Baraniewski significant strikes over 29.5	51%	2.63	—
Total significant strikes over 79.5	30%	4.30	—
Iwo Baraniewski wins by Sub or Decision	38%	3.20	✗ lost
Iwo Baraniewski wins by KO/TKO in R3	4%	34.00	✗ lost
Iwo Baraniewski significant strikes over 19.5	67%	1.80	—
Total significant strikes over 89.5	23%	5.10	—
Junior Tafa wins by KO or Decision	26%	4.40	✗ lost
Junior Tafa wins	28%	4.10	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 99.5	18%	6.00	—
Iwo Baraniewski wins by Submission in R3	2%	71.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	7%	15.00	✗ lost
Iwo Baraniewski wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	14%	7.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	5%	19.00	✗ lost
Iwo Baraniewski wins by KO or Decision	57%	1.72	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	20%	4.60	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 109.5	13%	7.00	—
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	15%	6.00	✗ lost
Iwo Baraniewski significant strikes over 49.5	18%	5.00	—
Iwo Baraniewski significant strikes over 39.5	24%	3.75	—
Iwo Baraniewski wins	72%	1.24	✓ won
Iwo Baraniewski wins by KO/TKO in R2	10%	8.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	2%	51.00	✗ lost
Junior Tafa wins by KO/TKO	16%	5.20	✗ lost
Iwo Baraniewski wins by Submission in R2 or R3	6%	14.00	✗ lost
Junior Tafa wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	14%	5.80	✗ lost
Junior Tafa wins by KO or Sub	18%	4.60	✗ lost
Iwo Baraniewski significant strikes over 59.5	12%	6.50	—
Total takedowns over 0.5	47%	1.67	—
Total takedowns over 1.5	32%	2.40	—
Junior Tafa significant strikes over 59.5	8%	10.00	—
Junior Tafa wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	7%	11.50	✗ lost
Junior Tafa wins by KO/TKO in R1	10%	8.00	✗ lost
Iwo Baraniewski wins by Submission in R2	4%	17.00	✗ lost
Junior Tafa wins by KO/TKO in R2	5%	15.00	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 2.5	21%	3.50	—
Fight ends by KO/TKO	50%	1.43	✓ won
Fight ends before decision	66%	1.07	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission in R2	5%	14.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 119.5	8%	8.50	—
Junior Tafa wins by finish in Round 1	10%	6.50	✗ lost
Finish before Round 3	59%	1.13	✓ won
Iwo Baraniewski wins by KO/TKO	34%	1.91	✓ won
Iwo Baraniewski wins by KO or Sub	48%	1.32	✓ won
Iwo Baraniewski wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	30%	1.98	✓ won
Iwo Baraniewski wins by SUB	15%	4.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	16%	3.60	✗ lost
Iwo Baraniewski significant strikes over 69.5	6%	9.50	—
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	29%	1.96	✓ won
Iwo Baraniewski wins by Submission in R1 or R2	13%	4.10	✗ lost
Junior Tafa wins by KO/TKO in R3	2%	31.00	✗ lost
Junior Tafa wins by finish in Round 1	10%	5.10	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	38%	1.36	✗ lost
Iwo Baraniewski takedowns over 0.5	33%	1.53	—
Iwo Baraniewski wins by KO/TKO in R1	20%	2.45	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission in R1	9%	4.70	✗ lost
Iwo Baraniewski wins by Submission in R1	9%	5.10	✗ lost
Junior Tafa wins by SUB	2%	26.00	✗ lost
Junior Tafa wins by Submission in R1 or R2	1%	29.00	✗ lost
Iwo Baraniewski wins by finish in Round 1	28%	1.37	✓ won
Iwo Baraniewski takedowns over 1.5	19%	2.00	—
Junior Tafa wins by Submission in R1	1%	41.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 129.5	3%	10.00	—
Total knockdowns over 0.5	2%	1.13	—

Joanderson Brito

18-5-1

Winner

Joanderson Brito

SUB · R1

✓ predicted

Jordan Leavitt

13-3-0

Model Prediction

Joanderson Brito ✓ won 54%

KO 12%· Sub 25%· Dec 17%

Jordan Leavitt 46%

KO 7%· Sub 16%· Dec 24%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Joanderson Brito wins	54%	1.58	✓ predicted
Finish round Finish in Round 1	30%	—	✓ predicted

Every Sportsbet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Jordan Leavitt wins	46%	2.25	✗ lost
Joanderson Brito wins	54%	1.58	✓ won

Farés Ziam

18-4-0

Winner

Tom Nolan

Decision (U) · R3

✗ wrong

Tom Nolan

10-1-0

Model Prediction

Farés Ziam 73%

KO 23%· Sub 11%· Dec 38%

Tom Nolan ✓ won 27%

KO 9%· Sub 4%· Dec 14%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Farés Ziam wins	73%	1.29	missed
Method Farés Ziam wins by Decision	38%	2.85	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	53%	1.99	✓ predicted

Every Sportsbet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Farés Ziam wins by Decision	38%	2.87	✗ lost
Farés Ziam wins by DEC	38%	2.85	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	53%	1.99	✓ won
Fight goes to Decision	53%	1.97	✓ won
Tom Nolan significant strikes over 19.5	76%	1.33	—
Farés Ziam wins by KO or Decision	62%	1.64	✗ lost
Farés Ziam takedowns over 0.5	64%	1.57	—
Tom Nolan wins by Submission in R1	2%	51.00	✗ lost
Tom Nolan wins	27%	3.62	✓ won
Tom Nolan significant strikes over 29.5	59%	1.67	—
Total significant strikes over 49.5	74%	1.34	—
Tom Nolan wins by Submission in R1 or R2	3%	31.00	✗ lost
Farés Ziam significant strikes over 19.5	82%	1.20	—
Farés Ziam significant strikes over 29.5	70%	1.40	—
Finish before Round 2	24%	4.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 59.5	65%	1.48	—
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	61%	1.58	✓ won
Tom Nolan wins by Sub or Decision	18%	5.25	✓ won
Farés Ziam wins by Sub or Decision	49%	1.93	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	57%	1.66	✓ won
Farés Ziam wins	73%	1.29	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	17%	5.60	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 69.5	56%	1.65	—
Fight reaches Round 2	76%	1.22	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 1	24%	3.80	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	43%	2.10	✗ lost
Tom Nolan wins by KO or Decision	24%	3.80	✓ won
Farés Ziam wins by KO/TKO in R1	12%	7.50	✗ lost
Farés Ziam wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	19%	4.60	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 0.5	70%	1.27	—
Tom Nolan wins by KO or Sub	13%	6.75	✗ lost
Tom Nolan wins by SUB	4%	23.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 79.5	46%	1.89	—
Tom Nolan wins in R3+ or by Decision	17%	5.25	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO	33%	2.65	✗ lost
Tom Nolan wins by DEC	14%	6.00	✓ won
Tom Nolan significant strikes over 39.5	38%	2.25	—
Farés Ziam wins by KO/TKO	23%	3.60	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	47%	1.75	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 1.5	51%	1.63	—
Tom Nolan wins by Submission in R2	1%	67.00	✗ lost
Tom Nolan wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	8%	10.50	✗ lost
Tom Nolan wins by KO/TKO in R1	5%	17.00	✗ lost
Tom Nolan wins by KO/TKO	9%	8.50	✗ lost
Farés Ziam takedowns over 1.5	39%	2.00	—
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	15%	5.00	✗ lost
Farés Ziam significant strikes over 39.5	44%	1.72	—
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	10%	7.25	✗ lost
Farés Ziam wins by KO or Sub	34%	2.20	✗ lost
Tom Nolan significant strikes over 59.5	16%	4.50	—
Farés Ziam wins by KO/TKO in R2	8%	9.75	✗ lost
Tom Nolan significant strikes over 49.5	22%	3.25	—
Fight ends by Submission in R1	8%	9.50	✗ lost
Tom Nolan takedowns over 0.5	30%	2.37	—
Total significant strikes over 89.5	33%	2.15	—
Tom Nolan significant strikes over 69.5	11%	6.50	—
Fight ends by Submission	15%	4.70	✗ lost
Farés Ziam wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	11%	6.00	✗ lost
Tom Nolan wins by Submission in R3	1%	101.00	✗ lost
Tom Nolan wins by KO/TKO in R2	3%	21.00	✗ lost
Farés Ziam wins by Submission in R1 or R2	9%	6.75	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 99.5	24%	2.55	—
Total significant strikes over 109.5	20%	3.00	—
Farés Ziam wins by SUB	11%	5.40	✗ lost
Farés Ziam wins by Submission in R1	6%	10.50	✗ lost
Tom Nolan wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	5%	13.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 119.5	16%	3.60	—
Fight ends by Submission in R2	5%	12.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	5%	10.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 129.5	13%	4.30	—
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	8%	6.75	✗ lost
Tom Nolan significant strikes over 79.5	5%	10.00	—
Farés Ziam wins by KO/TKO in R3	4%	13.00	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 2.5	25%	2.03	—
Farés Ziam wins by Submission in R2	4%	14.00	✗ lost
Farés Ziam significant strikes over 49.5	23%	2.10	—
Farés Ziam wins by Submission in R2 or R3	5%	9.00	✗ lost
Tom Nolan wins by KO/TKO in R3	2%	31.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 139.5	9%	5.25	—
Tom Nolan takedowns over 1.5	10%	4.50	—
Farés Ziam significant strikes over 59.5	16%	2.80	—
Total takedowns over 3.5	17%	2.55	—
Fight ends by Submission in R3	2%	16.00	✗ lost
Farés Ziam takedowns over 2.5	15%	2.50	—
Farés Ziam significant strikes over 69.5	9%	3.75	—
Farés Ziam wins by Submission in R3	2%	19.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 149.5	5%	6.25	—
Total takedowns over 4.5	9%	3.45	—
Farés Ziam significant strikes over 79.5	3%	5.00	—
Total significant strikes over 159.5	2%	8.00	—
Total knockdowns over 0.5	2%	1.55	—

Bryce Mitchell

18-4-0

Winner

Bryce Mitchell

SUB · R3

✗ wrong

Santiago Luna

8-0-0

Model Prediction

Bryce Mitchell ✓ won 44%

KO 5%· Sub 18%· Dec 21%

Santiago Luna 56%

KO 19%· Sub 13%· Dec 24%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Santiago Luna wins value	56%	2.04	missed
Method Santiago Luna wins by Decision	24%	3.80	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	45%	2.13	missed

Every Sportsbet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Santiago Luna wins by SUB	13%	11.50	✗ lost
Santiago Luna wins by Submission in R1 or R2	11%	14.00	✗ lost
Santiago Luna wins by Submission in R1	6%	23.00	✗ lost
Santiago Luna wins by Submission in R2	5%	31.00	✗ lost
Bryce Mitchell wins by KO/TKO in R2	2%	67.00	✗ lost
Finish before Round 3	45%	2.74	✗ lost
Santiago Luna wins by KO or Sub	32%	3.80	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	19%	6.25	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	11%	11.00	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	50%	2.37	—
Fight ends by Submission	31%	3.75	✓ won
Fight ends before decision	55%	2.13	✓ won
Bryce Mitchell wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	4%	26.00	✗ lost
Santiago Luna wins value	56%	2.04	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 1	26%	4.30	✗ lost
Bryce Mitchell wins by KO/TKO	5%	21.00	✗ lost
Santiago Luna wins by Sub or Decision	37%	3.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	24%	4.40	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	15%	7.00	✗ lost
Bryce Mitchell wins by KO or Sub	24%	4.30	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	8%	12.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	11%	8.75	✗ lost
Santiago Luna wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	15%	6.50	✗ lost
Santiago Luna wins by KO/TKO	19%	5.25	✗ lost
Santiago Luna wins by Submission in R3	2%	41.00	✗ lost
Santiago Luna wins in R3+ or by Decision	30%	3.15	✗ lost
Bryce Mitchell wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	3%	34.00	✗ lost
Santiago Luna wins by KO or Decision	43%	2.25	✗ lost
Bryce Mitchell wins by Submission in R2	6%	15.00	✗ lost
Bryce Mitchell wins by Submission in R1 or R2	15%	6.25	✗ lost
Bryce Mitchell wins by SUB	18%	5.00	✓ won
Santiago Luna wins by DEC	24%	3.80	✗ lost
Santiago Luna wins by KO/TKO in R2	6%	14.00	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 2	74%	1.20	✓ won
Santiago Luna wins by KO/TKO in R1	9%	10.00	✗ lost
Bryce Mitchell wins by Submission in R2 or R3	10%	9.00	✓ won
Bryce Mitchell wins by KO/TKO in R1	3%	34.00	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 0.5	81%	1.05	—
Santiago Luna wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	10%	8.75	✗ lost
Santiago Luna takedowns over 0.5	42%	2.00	—
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	10%	8.25	✓ won
Bryce Mitchell wins	44%	1.81	✓ won
Bryce Mitchell wins by Submission in R1	9%	9.25	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	6%	14.00	✓ won
Total takedowns over 1.5	66%	1.20	—
Santiago Luna significant strikes over 19.5	67%	1.17	—
Bryce Mitchell wins by KO/TKO in R3	1%	81.00	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	50%	1.53	—
Total significant strikes over 49.5	61%	1.24	—
Bryce Mitchell takedowns over 0.5	67%	1.12	—
Santiago Luna takedowns over 1.5	21%	3.60	—
Fight goes to decision	45%	1.66	✗ lost
Santiago Luna significant strikes over 29.5	56%	1.33	—
Fight goes to Decision	45%	1.65	✗ lost
Bryce Mitchell wins by Sub or Decision	39%	1.89	✓ won
Bryce Mitchell significant strikes over 19.5	60%	1.20	—
Total significant strikes over 59.5	54%	1.32	—
Bryce Mitchell takedowns over 1.5	52%	1.36	—
Total takedowns over 2.5	51%	1.39	—
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	4%	16.00	✗ lost
Bryce Mitchell wins by KO or Decision	26%	2.60	✗ lost
Santiago Luna takedowns over 2.5	10%	6.50	—
Total significant strikes over 69.5	44%	1.44	—
Santiago Luna wins by KO/TKO in R3	3%	19.00	✗ lost
Santiago Luna significant strikes over 39.5	40%	1.57	—
Bryce Mitchell takedowns over 2.5	38%	1.62	—
Bryce Mitchell significant strikes over 29.5	42%	1.45	—
Bryce Mitchell wins in R3+ or by Decision	24%	2.50	✓ won
Bryce Mitchell wins by DEC	21%	2.85	✗ lost
Bryce Mitchell wins by Submission in R3	3%	18.00	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 79.5	33%	1.59	—
Bryce Mitchell takedowns over 3.5	25%	1.91	—
Total takedowns over 3.5	28%	1.65	—
Santiago Luna significant strikes over 49.5	23%	2.00	—
Bryce Mitchell significant strikes over 39.5	24%	1.80	—
Total significant strikes over 89.5	24%	1.79	—
Total significant strikes over 99.5	20%	2.03	—
Bryce Mitchell significant strikes over 49.5	17%	2.30	—
Total significant strikes over 109.5	16%	2.35	—
Santiago Luna significant strikes over 59.5	15%	2.63	—
Total significant strikes over 119.5	13%	2.85	—
Bryce Mitchell significant strikes over 59.5	10%	3.10	—
Total significant strikes over 129.5	9%	3.40	—
Total takedowns over 4.5	15%	2.03	—
Santiago Luna significant strikes over 69.5	6%	3.60	—
Total significant strikes over 139.5	5%	4.20	—
Bryce Mitchell takedowns over 4.5	6%	2.50	—
Bryce Mitchell significant strikes over 69.5	3%	4.33	—
Total significant strikes over 149.5	2%	5.25	—
Total knockdowns over 0.5	2%	2.75	—
Total takedowns over 5.5	3%	2.45	—

Bruno Silva

15-8-2

Winner

Édgar Cháirez

SUB · R1

✓ predicted

Édgar Cháirez

13-6-0

Model Prediction

Bruno Silva 36%

KO 6%· Sub 7%· Dec 23%

Édgar Cháirez ✓ won 64%

KO 5%· Sub 13%· Dec 46%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Édgar Cháirez wins value	64%	1.97	✓ predicted
Method Édgar Cháirez wins by Decision value	46%	4.50	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	69%	1.78	missed

Every Sportsbet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Édgar Cháirez wins by DEC value	46%	4.50	✗ lost
Édgar Cháirez wins by Sub or Decision value	59%	2.85	✓ won
Édgar Cháirez wins in R3+ or by Decision value	48%	3.50	✗ lost
Édgar Cháirez wins by KO or Decision value	51%	2.55	✗ lost
Édgar Cháirez wins value	64%	1.97	✓ won
Fight goes to decision	69%	1.78	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	69%	1.77	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	72%	1.57	✗ lost
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	74%	1.50	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 2	84%	1.22	✗ lost
Édgar Cháirez wins by Submission in R1 or R2	11%	8.50	✓ won
Édgar Cháirez wins by SUB	13%	6.75	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission	20%	4.30	✓ won
Édgar Cháirez wins by Submission in R1	6%	13.00	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission in R1	10%	8.25	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission in R2	6%	11.50	✗ lost
Édgar Cháirez wins by Submission in R2	4%	18.00	✗ lost
Bruno Silva wins by Sub or Decision	30%	2.25	✗ lost
Bruno Silva wins in R3+ or by Decision	27%	2.55	✗ lost
Bruno Silva wins	36%	1.87	✗ lost
Bruno Silva wins by SUB	7%	9.25	✗ lost
Bruno Silva wins by Submission in R1 or R2	6%	11.00	✗ lost
Bruno Silva wins by DEC	23%	2.85	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	28%	2.25	✓ won
Finish before Round 3	26%	2.47	✓ won
Bruno Silva wins by Submission in R1	4%	17.00	✗ lost
Bruno Silva wins by KO or Decision	29%	2.15	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 1	16%	3.90	✓ won
Fight ends before decision	31%	1.96	✓ won
Édgar Cháirez wins by KO or Sub	18%	3.20	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	10%	5.75	✗ lost
Bruno Silva wins by KO or Sub	13%	4.40	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	3%	17.00	✗ lost
Bruno Silva wins by Submission in R2 or R3	4%	16.00	✗ lost
Édgar Cháirez wins by Submission in R3	2%	26.00	✗ lost
Bruno Silva wins by Submission in R2	2%	23.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	5%	8.25	✗ lost
Bruno Silva wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	5%	8.75	✗ lost
Bruno Silva wins by KO/TKO	6%	7.25	✗ lost
Bruno Silva wins by Submission in R3	1%	34.00	✗ lost
Bruno Silva wins by KO/TKO in R1	3%	13.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	6%	6.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	11%	3.30	✗ lost
Bruno Silva wins by KO/TKO in R2	2%	19.00	✗ lost
Bruno Silva wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	3%	12.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	4%	9.25	✗ lost
Édgar Cháirez wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	4%	6.75	✗ lost
Édgar Cháirez wins by KO/TKO	5%	5.50	✗ lost
Édgar Cháirez wins by KO/TKO in R1	3%	10.00	✗ lost
Bruno Silva wins by KO/TKO in R3	1%	29.00	✗ lost
Édgar Cháirez wins by KO/TKO in R2	2%	15.00	✗ lost
Édgar Cháirez wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	3%	9.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	2%	13.00	✗ lost
Édgar Cháirez wins by KO/TKO in R3	1%	21.00	✗ lost

Brendan Allen

26-7-0

Winner

Brendan Allen

Decision (U) · R3

✓ predicted

Edmen Shahbazyan

16-5-0

Model Prediction

Brendan Allen ✓ won 60%

KO 14%· Sub 30%· Dec 16%

Edmen Shahbazyan 40%

KO 19%· Sub 3%· Dec 19%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Brendan Allen wins	60%	1.53	✓ predicted
Method Brendan Allen wins by Submission	30%	3.60	missed
Finish round Finish in Round 2	31%	4.50	missed

Every Sportsbet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Fight ends by Submission in R2	15%	9.25	✗ lost
Edmen Shahbazyan wins by DEC	19%	7.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	31%	4.50	✗ lost
Edmen Shahbazyan wins by Submission in R2	1%	101.00	✗ lost
Brendan Allen wins by Submission in R2	14%	9.75	✗ lost
Edmen Shahbazyan wins by Sub or Decision	22%	6.25	✗ lost
Edmen Shahbazyan wins by Decision	19%	7.00	✗ lost
Brendan Allen wins by Submission in R1 or R2	26%	4.75	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	15%	7.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	33%	3.30	✗ lost
Brendan Allen wins by SUB	30%	3.60	✗ lost
Brendan Allen wins by KO/TKO in R2	7%	16.00	✗ lost
Brendan Allen wins by Submission in R2 or R3	18%	5.90	✗ lost
Finish before Round 3	57%	1.82	✗ lost
Brendan Allen wins by KO or Sub	44%	2.35	✗ lost
Edmen Shahbazyan wins by KO/TKO in R2	9%	11.50	✗ lost
Edmen Shahbazyan wins	40%	2.51	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 2	74%	1.36	✓ won
Edmen Shahbazyan wins by KO or Decision	37%	2.55	✗ lost
Brendan Allen wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	12%	7.75	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	35%	2.71	✓ won
Fight ends before decision	65%	1.43	✗ lost
Brendan Allen wins by Submission in R1	12%	7.75	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	13%	7.00	✗ lost
Brendan Allen wins	60%	1.53	✓ won
Edmen Shahbazyan takedowns over 1.5	18%	5.00	—
Fight goes to Decision	35%	2.60	✓ won
Brendan Allen wins by finish in Round 1	18%	5.00	✗ lost
Brendan Allen wins by Sub or Decision	46%	1.94	✓ won
Edmen Shahbazyan significant strikes over 19.5	70%	1.25	—
Edmen Shahbazyan wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	11%	7.75	✗ lost
Edmen Shahbazyan wins by Submission in R1 or R2	3%	34.00	✗ lost
Brendan Allen wins by KO/TKO	14%	6.00	✗ lost
Edmen Shahbazyan takedowns over 2.5	8%	10.00	—
Edmen Shahbazyan wins by SUB	3%	29.00	✗ lost
Edmen Shahbazyan takedowns over 0.5	34%	2.40	—
Total takedowns over 0.5	70%	1.17	—
Brendan Allen wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	8%	9.75	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 49.5	60%	1.33	—
Brendan Allen significant strikes over 19.5	64%	1.22	—
Fight ends by KO/TKO	33%	2.35	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 59.5	53%	1.46	—
Edmen Shahbazyan significant strikes over 29.5	51%	1.50	—
Brendan Allen wins by KO or Decision	30%	2.50	✓ won
Edmen Shahbazyan wins by KO or Sub	22%	3.35	✗ lost
Brendan Allen wins in R3+ or by Decision	26%	2.80	✓ won
Brendan Allen wins by KO/TKO in R1	6%	12.50	✗ lost
Edmen Shahbazyan wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	16%	4.30	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 1.5	48%	1.47	—
Brendan Allen significant strikes over 29.5	46%	1.50	—
Edmen Shahbazyan wins by KO/TKO	19%	3.60	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 69.5	41%	1.60	—
Brendan Allen wins by DEC	16%	3.90	✓ won
Brendan Allen takedowns over 0.5	46%	1.33	—
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	13%	4.40	✗ lost
Brendan Allen wins by finish in Round 1	18%	3.10	✗ lost
Edmen Shahbazyan wins by Submission in R1	1%	46.00	✗ lost
Edmen Shahbazyan significant strikes over 39.5	29%	1.80	—
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	8%	5.90	✗ lost
Edmen Shahbazyan wins by finish in Round 1	9%	5.50	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 2.5	26%	1.79	—
Total significant strikes over 79.5	26%	1.75	—
Edmen Shahbazyan wins by KO/TKO in R1	8%	6.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	4%	11.00	✗ lost
Brendan Allen wins by Submission in R3	4%	11.50	✗ lost
Brendan Allen significant strikes over 39.5	24%	1.80	—
Edmen Shahbazyan wins by KO/TKO in R3	2%	18.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	4%	10.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 89.5	22%	1.89	—
Brendan Allen takedowns over 1.5	24%	1.67	—
Edmen Shahbazyan significant strikes over 49.5	19%	2.10	—
Total takedowns over 3.5	17%	2.25	—
Total significant strikes over 99.5	18%	2.07	—
Brendan Allen significant strikes over 49.5	18%	2.10	—
Edmen Shahbazyan wins by finish in Round 1	9%	4.00	✗ lost
Brendan Allen wins by KO/TKO in R3	2%	19.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 109.5	14%	2.25	—
Edmen Shahbazyan significant strikes over 59.5	12%	2.60	—
Brendan Allen significant strikes over 59.5	11%	2.63	—
Total takedowns over 4.5	9%	2.95	—
Total significant strikes over 119.5	11%	2.50	—
Brendan Allen takedowns over 2.5	13%	2.10	—
Total significant strikes over 129.5	7%	2.80	—
Brendan Allen significant strikes over 69.5	5%	3.30	—
Edmen Shahbazyan significant strikes over 69.5	5%	3.10	—
Total significant strikes over 139.5	3%	3.20	—
Total takedowns over 5.5	1%	3.80	—
Total knockdowns over 0.5	2%	1.60	—
Brendan Allen takedowns over 3.5	1%	2.70	—

Ariane Carnelossi

15-4-0

Winner

Ketlen Souza

KO/TKO · R1

✓ predicted

Ketlen Souza

16-6-0

Model Prediction

Ariane Carnelossi 27%

KO 7%· Sub 5%· Dec 15%

Ketlen Souza ✓ won 73%

KO 16%· Sub 13%· Dec 44%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Ketlen Souza wins	73%	1.30	✓ predicted
Method Ketlen Souza wins by Decision	44%	2.03	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	59%	2.37	missed

Every Sportsbet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Ariane Carnelossi wins by Submission in R1	3%	46.00	✗ lost
Finish before Round 2	21%	5.20	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission in R1	9%	12.00	✗ lost
Ariane Carnelossi wins by Submission in R1 or R2	4%	26.00	✗ lost
Ariane Carnelossi wins by SUB	5%	21.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	18%	5.75	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	38%	2.62	✓ won
Ariane Carnelossi wins by Sub or Decision	20%	4.90	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	41%	2.37	✓ won
Ariane Carnelossi wins	27%	3.57	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	12%	8.00	✓ won
Ketlen Souza wins by finish in Round 1	15%	6.50	✓ won
Ketlen Souza wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	14%	7.00	✓ won
Ketlen Souza wins	73%	1.30	✓ won
Ketlen Souza wins by Submission in R1 or R2	10%	9.00	✗ lost
Ketlen Souza wins by KO or Sub	29%	3.25	✓ won
Ketlen Souza wins by KO/TKO in R1	8%	11.00	✓ won
Ketlen Souza wins by Sub or Decision	56%	1.64	✗ lost
Ketlen Souza wins by KO or Decision	60%	1.53	✓ won
Ketlen Souza wins by Decision	44%	2.10	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	59%	1.54	✗ lost
Ketlen Souza wins by KO/TKO	16%	5.50	✓ won
Ariane Carnelossi wins by Decision	15%	6.00	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 2	79%	1.14	✗ lost
Ketlen Souza wins by Submission in R1	6%	14.00	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	59%	1.53	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	62%	1.44	✗ lost
Ketlen Souza wins by DEC	44%	2.03	✗ lost
Ariane Carnelossi wins by DEC	15%	5.90	✗ lost
Ketlen Souza wins by SUB	13%	7.00	✗ lost
Ariane Carnelossi wins by KO or Decision	22%	3.90	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	13%	6.50	✗ lost
Ariane Carnelossi wins by KO or Sub	12%	7.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	24%	3.60	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission in R2	6%	15.00	✗ lost
Ariane Carnelossi wins by Submission in R2	2%	51.00	✗ lost
Ketlen Souza wins by Submission in R2	4%	19.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	8%	10.00	✗ lost
Ketlen Souza wins by KO/TKO in R2	5%	14.00	✗ lost
Ariane Carnelossi wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	6%	12.00	✗ lost
Ketlen Souza wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	8%	9.00	✗ lost
Ketlen Souza wins by Submission in R2 or R3	6%	11.50	✗ lost
Ariane Carnelossi wins by KO/TKO in R1	4%	19.00	✗ lost
Ariane Carnelossi wins by finish in Round 1	6%	11.00	✗ lost
Ariane Carnelossi wins by KO/TKO	7%	9.25	✗ lost
Ketlen Souza wins by finish in Round 1	15%	4.30	✓ won
Ariane Carnelossi wins by Submission in R3	1%	71.00	✗ lost
Ariane Carnelossi wins by finish in Round 1	6%	9.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	7%	8.00	✗ lost
Ariane Carnelossi wins by KO/TKO in R2	2%	23.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	3%	18.00	✗ lost
Ariane Carnelossi wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	4%	14.00	✗ lost
Ketlen Souza wins by KO/TKO in R3	3%	18.00	✗ lost
Ketlen Souza wins by Submission in R3	2%	23.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	4%	12.00	✗ lost
Ariane Carnelossi wins by KO/TKO in R3	1%	29.00	✗ lost