Updated 2026-10-17 19:21 AEST
11
Bouts
1
Events
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Win probability
Our model's estimate that a fighter wins — e.g. 72% means we'd expect them to win roughly 7 of 10 times.
Confidence interval (CI)
The range the true probability likely falls in. Wider = less certain. A pick'em fight has a wide band; a clear favourite a narrow one.
Edge
How much higher our probability is than the bookmaker's implied odds. Positive edge = we think it's underpriced.
EV (expected value)
Average return if you placed the bet many times. +15% EV means about 15c profit per $1 staked, on average.
Risk tiers
Conservative leans to safe favourites, Balanced blends, Aggressive chases bigger-odds longshots. Pick what suits you.
Edge badges
Strong / Solid / Slight edge rank how much value the model sees — and how big a stake it suggests. They're not a promise the bet wins.

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Renato Moicano
Moicano
Main Event
66%
Model Leans Nolan
2026-11-01
Tom Nolan
Nolan
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan
2026
01
NOV
⚡ Next Event

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan

Meta APEX, Las Vegas, USA
11
Bouts
Renato Moicano
Renato Moicano
Brazil 21-7-1 Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 1 win
34% | 66%
Lightweight 5 rds
⏱ Sun 1 Nov · 10:00 AM AEST
Tom Nolan
Tom Nolan
Australia 10-1-0 Southpaw 5-fight win streak
Model Favourite
Tom Nolan
66.0 %
Confidence · Medium · sub-models broadly agree
Why this pick
  • Tom Nolan rides a 4-fight longer win streak
  • Tom Nolan lands 0.6 more sig strikes per minute
  • Tom Nolan wins by knockout in 33% of fights, Renato Moicano in 25%
  • the case against Renato Moicano eats 0.2 fewer strikes per minute
  • Tom Nolan rides a 5-fight win streak (Renato Moicano: 1)
Method Breakdown
Moicano Nolan
KO/TKO 9.0
30.9
Submission 13.9
15.6
Decision 11.1
19.5
Finish Distribution · By Round
27
R1
19
R2
10
R3
8
R4
5
R5
31
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Moicano Nolan
Str/min 4.1
4.7
Sig Acc 49%
45%
Str Def 60%
48%
TD/min 0.11
0.07
Finish 70%
50%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
40
39
MoicanoNolan
Combined 88 18–204
Takedowns
0.7
0.1
MoicanoNolan
Combined 1.8 0.0–4.1
Fight length
Expected 2.7 of 5 rounds 31% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Nolan

    Tom Nolan rides a 4-fight longer win streak

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Moicano

    Renato Moicano eats 0.2 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 Striking volume favours Nolan

    Tom Nolan lands 0.6 more sig strikes per minute

  • 04 Finish rate favours Moicano

    Renato Moicano finishes 70% of fights, Tom Nolan 50%

  • 05 Submission rate favours Moicano

    Renato Moicano wins by submission in 35% of fights, Tom Nolan in 17%

  • 06 KO rate favours Nolan

    Tom Nolan wins by knockout in 33% of fights, Renato Moicano in 25%

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Carlos Leal
Carlos Leal
Brazil 23-7-0 Striker Orthodox 1 win
42% | 58%
Welterweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 1 Nov · 10:00 AM AEST
Randy Brown
Randy Brown
Jamaica 20-8-0 Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
Model Favourite
Randy Brown
58.2 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Randy Brown eats 4.4 fewer strikes per minute
  • Randy Brown wins by submission in 14% of fights, Carlos Leal in 1%
  • the case against Carlos Leal lands 4.0 more sig strikes per minute
  • Carlos Leal out-volumes opponents at 8.4 sig/min vs Randy Brown's 4.4
Method Breakdown
Leal Brown
KO/TKO 18.6
17.9
Submission 2.5
9.6
Decision 20.7
30.7
Finish Distribution · By Round
21
R1
17
R2
10
R3
51
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Leal Brown
Str/min 8.4
4.4
Sig Acc 47%
47%
Str Def 49%
54%
TD/min 0.03
0.05
Finish 50%
55%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
47
48
LealBrown
Combined 99 19–180
Takedowns
0.1
0.1
LealBrown
Combined 0.6 0.0–3.7
Fight length
Expected 2.2 of 3 rounds 51% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Brown

    Randy Brown eats 4.4 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Leal

    Carlos Leal lands 4.0 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Win streak favours Leal

    Carlos Leal rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 04 KO rate favours Leal

    Carlos Leal wins by knockout in 49% of fights, Randy Brown in 32%

  • 05 Takedown defence favours Leal

    Carlos Leal stops 91% of takedown attempts, Randy Brown 75%

  • 06 Submission rate favours Brown

    Randy Brown wins by submission in 14% of fights, Carlos Leal in 1%

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
Sportsbet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Yana Santos
Yana Santos
Russia 17-8-0 MMA Orthodox 3-fight win streak
9% | 91%
Women's Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 1 Nov · 10:00 AM AEST
Luana Santos
Luana Santos
Brazil 10-2-0 Judo Orthodox 3-fight win streak
Model Favourite
Luana Santos
90.6 %
Confidence · Medium · limited UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Luana Santos eats 0.7 fewer strikes per minute
  • Luana Santos stops 86% of takedown attempts, Yana Santos 52%
  • Luana Santos wins by submission in 29% of fights, Yana Santos in 0%
  • the case against Yana Santos lands 1.9 more sig strikes per minute
  • Yana Santos out-volumes opponents at 4.4 sig/min vs Luana Santos's 2.5
Method Breakdown
Santos Santos
KO/TKO 2.0
23.9
Submission 1.3
13.0
Decision 6.0
53.7
Finish Distribution · By Round
21
R1
12
R2
7
R3
60
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Santos Santos
Str/min 4.4
2.5
Sig Acc 58%
54%
Str Def 53%
64%
TD/min 0.05
0.14
Finish 25%
43%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
31
36
SantosSantos
Combined 68 18–124
Takedowns
0.0
2.0
SantosSantos
Combined 1.9 0.0–4.7
Fight length
Expected 2.3 of 3 rounds 60% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Santos

    Luana Santos eats 0.7 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Santos

    Yana Santos lands 1.9 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Takedown defence favours Santos

    Luana Santos stops 86% of takedown attempts, Yana Santos 52%

  • 04 Submission rate favours Santos

    Luana Santos wins by submission in 29% of fights, Yana Santos in 0%

  • 05 Finish rate favours Santos

    Luana Santos finishes 43% of fights, Yana Santos 25%

  • 06 Takedown volume favours Santos

    Luana Santos hits 0.09 more takedowns per minute

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
Sportsbet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani
United States 10-2-0 Freestyle Switch Stance 2-fight win streak
51% | 49%
Welterweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 1 Nov · 10:00 AM AEST
FH
Farman Hasanov
Azerbaijan 1 win
Model Favourite
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani
50.9 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Farman Hasanov has 1 UFC fight — too little to compare fight stats, so this pick leans on age, size and pre-UFC record
Method Breakdown
Lebosnoyani Hasanov
KO/TKO 18.0
22.4
Submission 21.2
0.1
Decision 11.6
26.7
Finish Distribution · By Round
32
R1
18
R2
11
R3
38
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Lebosnoyani Hasanov
Str/min 3.9
1.4
Sig Acc 45%
51%
Str Def 57%
71%
TD/min 0.20
1.13
Finish 0%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
31
33
LebosnoyaniHasanov
Combined 67 17–122
Takedowns
0.3
1.4
LebosnoyaniHasanov
Combined 1.8 0.0–5.6
Fight length
Expected 1.9 of 3 rounds 38% chance it goes the distance
Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Gaston Bolanos
Gaston Bolanos
Peru 8-5-0 Striker Orthodox 1 win
24% | 76%
Featherweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 1 Nov · 7:00 AM AEST
Francis Marshall
Francis Marshall
United States 10-3-0 Freestyle Orthodox 2-fight win streak
Model Favourite
Francis Marshall
75.6 %
Confidence · Medium · limited UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Francis Marshall eats 0.4 fewer strikes per minute
  • Francis Marshall stops 89% of takedown attempts, Gaston Bolanos 50%
  • Francis Marshall rides a 1-fight longer win streak
  • the case against Gaston Bolanos lands 1.6 more sig strikes per minute
  • Francis Marshall has never been finished in 7 fights
Method Breakdown
Bolanos Marshall
KO/TKO 10.9
12.7
Submission 0.1
35.6
Decision 13.4
27.3
Finish Distribution · By Round
30
R1
18
R2
11
R3
41
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Bolanos Marshall
Str/min 3.9
2.3
Sig Acc 48%
29%
Str Def 55%
54%
TD/min 0.05
0.14
Finish 40%
43%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
43
38
BolanosMarshall
Combined 96 21–139
Takedowns
0.0
1.6
BolanosMarshall
Combined 1.9 0.0–5.0
Fight length
Expected 1.9 of 3 rounds 41% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Bolanos

    Gaston Bolanos lands 1.6 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Marshall

    Francis Marshall eats 0.4 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 Takedown defence favours Marshall

    Francis Marshall stops 89% of takedown attempts, Gaston Bolanos 50%

  • 04 Win streak favours Marshall

    Francis Marshall rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 05 Striking accuracy favours Bolanos

    Gaston Bolanos lands 48% of significant strikes thrown, Francis Marshall 29%

  • 06 Submission rate favours Marshall

    Francis Marshall wins by submission in 14% of fights, Gaston Bolanos in 0%

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Andre Petroski
Andre Petroski
United States 13-6-0 Freestyle Switch Stance 3-fight loss streak
47% | 53%
Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 1 Nov · 7:00 AM AEST
Azamat Bekoev
Azamat Bekoev
Russia 20-5-0 MMA Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
Model Favourite
Azamat Bekoev
53.5 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Azamat Bekoev lands 1.8 more sig strikes per minute
  • Azamat Bekoev finishes 100% of fights, Andre Petroski 54%
  • Azamat Bekoev wins by knockout in 75% of fights, Andre Petroski in 38%
  • the case against Andre Petroski eats 3.8 fewer strikes per minute
  • Azamat Bekoev out-volumes opponents at 4.6 sig/min vs Andre Petroski's 2.8
Method Breakdown
Petroski Bekoev
KO/TKO 13.1
28.3
Submission 14.3
7.4
Decision 19.2
17.8
Finish Distribution · By Round
34
R1
20
R2
8
R3
37
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Petroski Bekoev
Str/min 2.8
4.6
Sig Acc 49%
52%
Str Def 52%
31%
TD/min 0.21
0.23
Finish 54%
100%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
27
32
PetroskiBekoev
Combined 61 16–127
Takedowns
1.0
0.0
PetroskiBekoev
Combined 1.6 0.0–4.9
Fight length
Expected 1.8 of 3 rounds 37% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Petroski

    Andre Petroski eats 3.8 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Bekoev

    Azamat Bekoev lands 1.8 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Finish rate favours Bekoev

    Azamat Bekoev finishes 100% of fights, Andre Petroski 54%

  • 04 KO rate favours Bekoev

    Azamat Bekoev wins by knockout in 75% of fights, Andre Petroski in 38%

  • 05 Takedown defence favours Petroski

    Andre Petroski stops 86% of takedown attempts, Azamat Bekoev 62%

  • 06 Submission rate favours Petroski

    Andre Petroski wins by submission in 15% of fights, Azamat Bekoev in 0%

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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TB
Theodor Berggren
Sweden 8-4-0 MMA Switch Stance 1 loss
58% | 42%
Welterweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 1 Nov · 7:00 AM AEST
Rodrigo Sezinando
Rodrigo Sezinando
Brazil 9-2-0 MMA Orthodox 1 loss
Model Favourite
Theodor Berggren
58.0 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Theodor Berggren is favoured at 58% — fight-history features sparse
  • Theodor Berggren has 1 UFC fight — too little to compare fight stats, so this pick leans on age, size and pre-UFC record
Method Breakdown
Berggren Sezinando
KO/TKO 24.2
8.8
Submission 6.8
4.9
Decision 27.0
28.3
Finish Distribution · By Round
22
R1
15
R2
7
R3
55
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Berggren Sezinando
Str/min 3.5
2.5
Sig Acc 38%
32%
Str Def 34%
43%
TD/min 0.02
0.20
Finish 88%
88%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
37
29
BerggrenSezinando
Combined 74 16–142
Takedowns
0.1
0.7
BerggrenSezinando
Combined 1.8 0.0–5.2
Fight length
Expected 2.2 of 3 rounds 55% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Model lean favours Berggren

    Theodor Berggren is favoured at 58% — fight-history features sparse

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Julian Erosa
Julian Erosa
United States 31-14-0 Striker Southpaw 2-fight loss streak
55% | 45%
Featherweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 1 Nov · 7:00 AM AEST
JeongYeong Lee
JeongYeong Lee
South Korea 11-3-0 Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
Model Favourite
Julian Erosa
55.5 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Julian Erosa lands 2.9 more sig strikes per minute
  • Julian Erosa finishes 72% of fights, JeongYeong Lee 26%
  • Julian Erosa wins by knockout in 50% of fights, JeongYeong Lee in 25%
  • the case against JeongYeong Lee eats 2.4 fewer strikes per minute
  • Julian Erosa out-volumes opponents at 6.1 sig/min vs JeongYeong Lee's 3.2
Method Breakdown
Erosa Lee
KO/TKO 13.4
17.0
Submission 13.0
4.8
Decision 29.1
22.7
Finish Distribution · By Round
27
R1
14
R2
7
R3
52
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Erosa Lee
Str/min 6.1
3.2
Sig Acc 48%
49%
Str Def 49%
51%
TD/min 0.12
0.05
Finish 72%
26%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
42
36
ErosaLee
Combined 80 19–167
Takedowns
0.6
0.1
ErosaLee
Combined 1.0 0.0–4.2
Fight length
Expected 2.1 of 3 rounds 52% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Lee

    JeongYeong Lee eats 2.4 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Erosa

    Julian Erosa lands 2.9 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Finish rate favours Erosa

    Julian Erosa finishes 72% of fights, JeongYeong Lee 26%

  • 04 KO rate favours Erosa

    Julian Erosa wins by knockout in 50% of fights, JeongYeong Lee in 25%

  • 05 Submission rate favours Erosa

    Julian Erosa wins by submission in 22% of fights, JeongYeong Lee in 1%

  • 06 Takedown volume favours Erosa

    Julian Erosa hits 0.07 more takedowns per minute

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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JK
Joe Kropschot
61% | 39%
Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 1 Nov · 7:00 AM AEST
Nick Klein
Nick Klein
United States 6-3-0 Freestyle Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
Model Favourite
Joe Kropschot
61.4 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Joe Kropschot is favoured at 61% — fight-history features sparse
  • Joe Kropschot has no UFC fights — too little to compare fight stats, so this pick leans on age, size and pre-UFC record
Method Breakdown
Kropschot Klein
KO/TKO 30.9
11.3
Submission 10.3
12.1
Decision 20.2
15.2
Finish Distribution · By Round
36
R1
19
R2
9
R3
35
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Kropschot Klein
Str/min 0.0
2.7
Sig Acc 0%
55%
Str Def 0%
39%
TD/min 0.00
0.29
Finish 0%
93%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
18
17
KropschotKlein
Combined 45 13–108
Takedowns
0.1
1.2
KropschotKlein
Combined 2.1 0.0–4.9
Fight length
Expected 1.8 of 3 rounds 35% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Model lean favours Kropschot

    Joe Kropschot is favoured at 61% — fight-history features sparse

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Piera Rodriguez
Piera Rodriguez
Venezuela 12-2-0 Striker Orthodox 3-fight win streak
59% | 41%
Women's Strawweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 1 Nov · 7:00 AM AEST
Talita Alencar
Talita Alencar
Brazil 8-1-1 Grappler Orthodox 3-fight win streak
Model Favourite
Piera Rodriguez
59.2 %
Confidence · Medium · limited UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Piera Rodriguez lands 0.9 more sig strikes per minute
  • Piera Rodriguez hits 0.11 more takedowns per minute
  • Piera Rodriguez lands 48% of significant strikes thrown, Talita Alencar 36%
  • the case against Talita Alencar eats 0.1 fewer strikes per minute
  • Talita Alencar has never been finished in 5 fights
Method Breakdown
Rodriguez Alencar
KO/TKO 7.0
2.0
Submission 6.7
9.7
Decision 45.5
29.1
Finish Distribution · By Round
13
R1
8
R2
5
R3
75
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Rodriguez Alencar
Str/min 4.2
3.2
Sig Acc 48%
36%
Str Def 50%
54%
TD/min 0.30
0.19
Finish 17%
20%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
54
45
RodriguezAlencar
Combined 126 22–152
Takedowns
1.1
0.9
RodriguezAlencar
Combined 2.0 0.0–5.0
Fight length
Expected 2.5 of 3 rounds 75% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Rodriguez

    Piera Rodriguez lands 0.9 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Alencar

    Talita Alencar eats 0.1 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 Submission rate favours Alencar

    Talita Alencar wins by submission in 20% of fights, Piera Rodriguez in 0%

  • 04 Takedown volume favours Rodriguez

    Piera Rodriguez hits 0.11 more takedowns per minute

  • 05 Takedown defence favours Alencar

    Talita Alencar stops 100% of takedown attempts, Piera Rodriguez 82%

  • 06 Striking accuracy favours Rodriguez

    Piera Rodriguez lands 48% of significant strikes thrown, Talita Alencar 36%

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Tainara Lisboa
Tainara Lisboa
Brazil 7-4-0 Muay Thai Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
46% | 54%
Women's Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 1 Nov · 7:00 AM AEST
LS
Lucia Szabova
0-0-0
Model Favourite
Lucia Szabova
53.5 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Lucia Szabova is favoured at 54% — fight-history features sparse
  • Lucia Szabova has no UFC fights — too little to compare fight stats, so this pick leans on age, size and pre-UFC record
Method Breakdown
Lisboa Szabova
KO/TKO 6.3
17.3
Submission 17.5
13.3
Decision 22.7
22.9
Finish Distribution · By Round
30
R1
17
R2
8
R3
46
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Lisboa Szabova
Str/min 2.1
0.0
Sig Acc 44%
0%
Str Def 46%
0%
TD/min 0.11
0.00
Finish 73%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
24
26
LisboaSzabova
Combined 62 15–120
Takedowns
1.0
0.2
LisboaSzabova
Combined 1.8 0.0–4.5
Fight length
Expected 2.0 of 3 rounds 46% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Model lean favours Szabova

    Lucia Szabova is favoured at 54% — fight-history features sparse

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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