Updated 2026-09-20 22:31 AEST
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Bouts
0
Events
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Win probability
Our model's estimate that a fighter wins — e.g. 72% means we'd expect them to win roughly 7 of 10 times.
Confidence interval (CI)
The range the true probability likely falls in. Wider = less certain. A pick'em fight has a wide band; a clear favourite a narrow one.
Edge
How much higher our probability is than the bookmaker's implied odds. Positive edge = we think it's underpriced.
EV (expected value)
Average return if you placed the bet many times. +15% EV means about 15c profit per $1 staked, on average.
Risk tiers
Conservative leans to safe favourites, Balanced blends, Aggressive chases bigger-odds longshots. Pick what suits you.
Edge badges
Strong / Solid / Slight edge rank how much value the model sees — and how big a stake it suggests. They're not a promise the bet wins.

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Renato Moicano
Moicano
Main Event
61%
Model Leans Nolan
2026-10-31
Tom Nolan
Nolan
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan
2026
31
OCT
⚡ Next Event

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan

Meta APEX, Las Vegas, USA
3
Bouts
Renato Moicano
Renato Moicano
Brazil 21-7-1 Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 1 win
39% | 61%
Lightweight 5 rds
⏱ Sun 1 Nov · 10:00 AM AEST
Tom Nolan
Tom Nolan
Australia 10-1-0 Southpaw 5-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Tom Nolan
60.5 %
050100
CI · 31 – 91 · σ 0.092 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Tom Nolan rides a 4-fight longer win streak
  • Tom Nolan lands 0.6 more sig strikes per minute
  • the case against Renato Moicano eats 0.2 fewer strikes per minute
  • Tom Nolan rides a 5-fight win streak (Renato Moicano: 1)
Method Breakdown
Moicano Nolan
KO/TKO 10.8
33.5
Submission 13.2
11.0
Decision 15.4
16.0
Finish Distribution · By Round
27
R1
21
R2
10
R3
7
R4
4
R5
31
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Moicano Nolan
Str/min 4.1
4.7
Sig Acc 49%
45%
Str Def 60%
48%
TD/min 0.11
0.07
Finish 70%
50%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
41
41
MoicanoNolan
Combined 89 21–194
Takedowns
0.6
0.1
MoicanoNolan
Combined 1.8 0.0–4.6
Fight length
Expected 2.7 of 5 rounds 31% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Nolan

    Tom Nolan rides a 4-fight longer win streak

  • 02 Striking volume favours Nolan

    Tom Nolan lands 0.6 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Strikes absorbed favours Moicano

    Renato Moicano eats 0.2 fewer strikes per minute

  • 04 Finish rate favours Moicano

    Renato Moicano finishes 20% more of their wins

  • 05 Submission rate favours Moicano

    Renato Moicano taps opponents 18% more often

  • 06 Striking defence favours Moicano

    Renato Moicano avoids 11% more incoming strikes

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Tainara Lisboa
Tainara Lisboa
Brazil 7-4-0 Muay Thai Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
44% | 56%
Women's Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 1 Nov · 10:00 AM AEST
LS
Lucia Szabova
0-0-0 nan
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Lucia Szabova
55.6 %
050100
CI · 26 – 86 · σ 0.047 · High
Why this pick
  • Lucia Szabova comes in on a 2-fight cleaner skid
  • Model uncertainty: ±5pp on the win probability
Method Breakdown
Lisboa Szabova
KO/TKO 6.4
15.1
Submission 17.7
21.0
Decision 20.4
19.4
Finish Distribution · By Round
34
R1
17
R2
9
R3
40
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Lisboa Szabova
Str/min 1.9
0.0
Sig Acc 42%
0%
Str Def 46%
0%
TD/min 0.10
0.00
Finish 70%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
28
28
LisboaSzabova
Combined 64 13–122
Takedowns
1.0
0.1
LisboaSzabova
Combined 1.9 0.0–4.3
Fight length
Expected 1.9 of 3 rounds 40% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Loss streak favours Szabova

    Lucia Szabova comes in on a 2-fight cleaner skid

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
JK
Joe Kropschot
nan
60% | 40%
Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 1 Nov · 7:00 AM AEST
Nick Klein
Nick Klein
United States 6-3-0 Freestyle Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Joe Kropschot
59.9 %
050100
CI · 30 – 90 · σ 0.062 · High
Why this pick
  • Joe Kropschot comes in on a 2-fight cleaner skid
  • Model uncertainty: ±6pp on the win probability
Method Breakdown
Kropschot Klein
KO/TKO 28.2
12.0
Submission 12.4
10.3
Decision 19.3
17.8
Finish Distribution · By Round
38
R1
18
R2
7
R3
37
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Kropschot Klein
Str/min 0.0
2.1
Sig Acc 0%
47%
Str Def 0%
39%
TD/min 0.00
0.27
Finish 0%
82%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
16
15
KropschotKlein
Combined 45 12–105
Takedowns
0.1
1.4
KropschotKlein
Combined 2.0 0.0–5.0
Fight length
Expected 1.7 of 3 rounds 37% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Loss streak favours Kropschot

    Joe Kropschot comes in on a 2-fight cleaner skid

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.