Updated 2026-06-18 01:38 AEST
12
Bouts
0
Events
31
Value Bets
New here? How to read these predictions
Win probability
Our model's estimate that a fighter wins — e.g. 72% means we'd expect them to win roughly 7 of 10 times.
Confidence interval (CI)
The range the true probability likely falls in. Wider = less certain. A pick'em fight has a wide band; a clear favourite a narrow one.
Edge
How much higher our probability is than the bookmaker's implied odds. Positive edge = we think it's underpriced.
EV (expected value)
Average return if you placed the bet many times. +15% EV means about 15c profit per $1 staked, on average.
Risk tiers
Conservative leans to safe favourites, Balanced blends, Aggressive chases bigger-odds longshots. Pick what suits you.
Edge badges
Strong / Solid / Slight edge rank how much value the model sees — and how big a stake it suggests. They're not a promise the bet wins.

Tap any fight row to open the full model breakdown. New to the model itself? How it works · FAQ.

Kyoji Horiguchi
Horiguchi
Main Event
53%
model leans Kape
2026-06-20
Manel Kape
Kape
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi
2026
20
JUN
⚡ Next Event

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi

Meta APEX, Las Vegas, USA
12
Bouts
6
Value Bouts
Kyoji Horiguchi
Kyoji Horiguchi
Japan 36-5-0 Orthodox 5-fight win streak
SB 2.35
47% | 53%
Flyweight 5 rds
⏱ Sun 12:45 PM AEST
Manel Kape
Manel Kape
22-7-0 MMA Southpaw 3-fight win streak
SB 1.60
Breakdown ▼
8 value bets on SportsBet
Model Favourite
Manel Kape
53.3 %
050100
90% CI · 23 – 83 · σ 0.074 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Kyoji Horiguchi eats 2.0 fewer strikes per minute
  • Kyoji Horiguchi rides a 2-fight longer win streak
  • Manel Kape lands 1.3 more sig strikes per minute
  • Kyoji Horiguchi rides a 5-fight win streak (Manel Kape: 3)
  • Manel Kape has never been finished in 10 fights
Method Breakdown
Horiguchi Kape
KO/TKO 19.1
22.2
Submission 3.5
7.1
Decision 24.2
23.9
Finish Distribution · By Round
17
R1
14
R2
11
R3
6
R4
2
R5
48
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Horiguchi Kape
Str/min 3.8
5.0
Sig Acc 47%
56%
Str Def 64%
57%
TD/min 0.11
0.03
Finish 40%
50%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
  • Sig strikes
    56
    50
    10–94 9–81
  • Sig strikes (combined) 111 22–203
  • Takedowns
    0.8
    0.0
    0.0–2.3 0.0–1.8
  • Takedowns (combined) 1.3 0.0–4.4
  • Knockdowns (combined) 0.0 0.0–0.0
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Horiguchi

    Kyoji Horiguchi eats 2.0 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Horiguchi

    Kyoji Horiguchi rides a 2-fight longer win streak

  • 03 Striking volume favours Kape

    Manel Kape lands 1.3 more sig strikes per minute

  • 04 KO rate favours Kape

    Manel Kape finishes by KO 30% more often

  • 05 Finish rate favours Kape

    Manel Kape finishes 10% more of their wins

  • 06 Takedown volume favours Horiguchi

    Kyoji Horiguchi hits 0.08 more takedowns per minute

Value Bets · SportsBet 8 flagged · 75 markets analysed
  • Kyoji Horiguchi wins by KO/TKO in R1, R2 or R3
    Strong edge
    Model 16%
    Bookies 7%
    EV / $100 +$139
    Stake 2.5%
    15.00
    $25 returns $375
    +$350 profit
  • Kyoji Horiguchi wins by KO/TKO in R1
    Solid edge
    Model 6%
    Bookies 3%
    EV / $100 +$120
    Stake 0.9%
    34.00
    $9 returns $306
    +$297 profit
  • Kyoji Horiguchi wins by KO/TKO
    Strong edge
    Model 19%
    Bookies 9%
    EV / $100 +$119
    Stake 2.8%
    11.50
    $28 returns $322
    +$294 profit
  • Kyoji Horiguchi wins by KO/TKO in R2, R3 or R4
    Solid edge
    Model 12%
    Bookies 6%
    EV / $100 +$111
    Stake 1.6%
    18.00
    $16 returns $288
    +$272 profit
  • Kyoji Horiguchi wins by KO or Decision
    Strong edge
    Model 43%
    Bookies 34%
    EV / $100 +$28
    Stake 3.5%
    2.95
    $35 returns $103
    +$68 profit
  • Kyoji Horiguchi wins by KO or Sub
    Solid edge
    Model 23%
    Bookies 19%
    EV / $100 +$22
    Stake 1.2%
    5.40
    $12 returns $65
    +$53 profit
  • Finish before Round 4
    Strong edge
    Model 43%
    Bookies 38%
    EV / $100 +$16
    Stake 2.3%
    2.66
    $23 returns $61
    +$38 profit
  • Kyoji Horiguchi wins
    Solid edge
    Model 47%
    Bookies 43%
    EV / $100 +$10
    Stake 1.8%
    2.35
    $18 returns $42
    +$24 profit
Ion Cutelaba
Ion Cutelaba
20-11-1 Sambo Southpaw 1 win
SB 3.62
25% | 75%
Light Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 12:15 PM AEST
Navajo Stirling
Navajo Stirling
New Zealand 9-0-0 Kickboxer Orthodox 4-fight win streak
SB 1.29
Breakdown ▼
4 value bets on SportsBet
Model Favourite
Navajo Stirling
75.3 %
050100
90% CI · 45 – 98 · σ 0.058 · High
Why this pick
  • Navajo Stirling rides a 3-fight longer win streak
  • Navajo Stirling lands 1.9 more sig strikes per minute
  • Navajo Stirling eats 0.7 fewer strikes per minute
  • Navajo Stirling rides a 4-fight win streak (Ion Cutelaba: 1)
  • Navajo Stirling out-volumes opponents at 6.1 sig/min vs Ion Cutelaba's 4.2
Method Breakdown
Cutelaba Stirling
KO/TKO 8.7
51.3
Submission 3.1
1.9
Decision 13.0
22.1
Finish Distribution · By Round
33
R1
21
R2
11
R3
0
R4
0
R5
35
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Cutelaba Stirling
Str/min 4.2
6.1
Sig Acc 44%
51%
Str Def 48%
59%
TD/min 0.25
0.07
Finish 65%
25%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
  • Sig strikes
    34
    46
    8–71 9–78
  • Sig strikes (combined) 86 18–147
  • Takedowns
    0.9
    0.0
    0.0–2.9 0.0–2.0
  • Takedowns (combined) 1.5 0.0–4.9
  • Knockdowns (combined) 0.0 0.0–0.0
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Stirling

    Navajo Stirling rides a 3-fight longer win streak

  • 02 Striking volume favours Stirling

    Navajo Stirling lands 1.9 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Strikes absorbed favours Stirling

    Navajo Stirling eats 0.7 fewer strikes per minute

  • 04 Finish rate favours Cutelaba

    Ion Cutelaba finishes 40% more of their wins

  • 05 Takedown volume favours Cutelaba

    Ion Cutelaba hits 0.18 more takedowns per minute

  • 06 KO rate favours Cutelaba

    Ion Cutelaba finishes by KO 10% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 4 flagged · 54 markets analysed
  • Navajo Stirling wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2
    Strong edge
    Model 43%
    Bookies 34%
    EV / $100 +$24
    Stake 3.1%
    2.90
    $32 returns $93
    +$61 profit
  • Navajo Stirling wins by KO/TKO in R1
    Solid edge
    Model 26%
    Bookies 22%
    EV / $100 +$21
    Stake 1.4%
    4.60
    $14 returns $64
    +$50 profit
  • Navajo Stirling wins by KO/TKO
    Strong edge
    Model 51%
    Bookies 43%
    EV / $100 +$18
    Stake 3.5%
    2.30
    $34 returns $78
    +$44 profit
  • Fight ends by KO/TKO
    Strong edge
    Model 60%
    Bookies 54%
    EV / $100 +$10
    Stake 3.1%
    1.84
    $31 returns $57
    +$26 profit
Andre Fili
Andre Fili
United States 25-13-0 MMA Orthodox 1 loss
SB 3.30
28% | 72%
Featherweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 11:45 AM AEST
Vinicius Oliveira
Vinicius Oliveira
Brazil 23-4-0 MMA Switch Stance 1 loss
SB 1.34
Breakdown ▼
7 value bets on SportsBet
Model Favourite
Vinicius Oliveira
72.3 %
050100
90% CI · 42 – 98 · σ 0.060 · High
Why this pick
  • Vinicius Oliveira eats 1.6 fewer strikes per minute
  • Vinicius Oliveira lands 0.6 more sig strikes per minute
  • Andre Fili hits 0.05 more takedowns per minute
  • Andre Fili has a 21-fight UFC experience edge (26 vs 5)
  • Andre Fili has never been finished in 26 fights
Method Breakdown
Fili Oliveira
KO/TKO 5.1
18.6
Submission 3.3
4.3
Decision 19.3
49.4
Finish Distribution · By Round
16
R1
10
R2
5
R3
0
R4
0
R5
69
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Fili Oliveira
Str/min 3.9
4.5
Sig Acc 38%
43%
Str Def 51%
57%
TD/min 0.15
0.10
Finish 38%
40%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
  • Sig strikes
    44
    59
    9–71 10–96
  • Sig strikes (combined) 104 22–159
  • Takedowns
    0.3
    0.4
    0.0–3.1 0.0–2.5
  • Takedowns (combined) 1.6 0.0–5.5
  • Knockdowns (combined) 0.0 0.0–0.0
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Oliveira

    Vinicius Oliveira eats 1.6 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Oliveira

    Vinicius Oliveira lands 0.6 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Takedown volume favours Fili

    Andre Fili hits 0.05 more takedowns per minute

  • 04 KO rate favours Fili

    Andre Fili finishes by KO 7% more often

  • 05 Striking accuracy favours Oliveira

    Vinicius Oliveira is 5% more accurate on the feet

  • 06 Striking defence favours Oliveira

    Vinicius Oliveira avoids 6% more incoming strikes

Value Bets · SportsBet 7 flagged · 53 markets analysed
  • Vinicius Oliveira wins by Decision
    Strong edge
    Model 49%
    Bookies 31%
    EV / $100 +$58
    Stake 6.6%
    3.20
    $66 returns $211
    +$145 profit
  • Vinicius Oliveira wins by DEC
    Strong edge
    Model 49%
    Bookies 32%
    EV / $100 +$56
    Stake 6.5%
    3.15
    $65 returns $205
    +$140 profit
  • Fight goes to decision
    Strong edge
    Model 69%
    Bookies 48%
    EV / $100 +$43
    Stake 9.9%
    2.08
    $99 returns $206
    +$107 profit
  • Fight goes to Decision
    Strong edge
    Model 69%
    Bookies 49%
    EV / $100 +$41
    Stake 9.7%
    2.05
    $97 returns $199
    +$102 profit
  • Vinicius Oliveira wins by Sub or Decision
    Strong edge
    Model 54%
    Bookies 42%
    EV / $100 +$29
    Stake 5.2%
    2.40
    $52 returns $125
    +$73 profit
  • Over 2.5 rounds
    Strong edge
    Model 71%
    Bookies 56%
    EV / $100 +$28
    Stake 8.9%
    1.80
    $89 returns $160
    +$71 profit
  • Fight reaches Round 3
    Strong edge
    Model 74%
    Bookies 61%
    EV / $100 +$22
    Stake 8.5%
    1.65
    $85 returns $140
    +$55 profit
Christian Rodriguez
Christian Rodriguez
United States 12-4-0 Freestyle Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
SB 1.49
66% | 34%
Featherweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 11:15 AM AEST
Hyder Amil
Hyder Amil
Philippines 11-2-0 MMA Switch Stance 2-fight loss streak
SB 2.63
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Christian Rodriguez
66.1 %
050100
90% CI · 36 – 96 · σ 0.058 · High
Why this pick
  • Christian Rodriguez eats 2.1 fewer strikes per minute
  • Hyder Amil lands 3.7 more sig strikes per minute
  • Hyder Amil finishes by KO 60% more often
  • Hyder Amil out-volumes opponents at 7.4 sig/min vs Christian Rodriguez's 3.7
  • Christian Rodriguez has never been finished in 9 fights
Method Breakdown
Rodriguez Amil
KO/TKO 14.5
10.6
Submission 9.9
1.8
Decision 41.7
21.4
Finish Distribution · By Round
18
R1
13
R2
7
R3
0
R4
0
R5
63
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Rodriguez Amil
Str/min 3.7
7.4
Sig Acc 52%
53%
Str Def 56%
51%
TD/min 0.13
0.05
Finish 22%
60%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
  • Sig strikes
    45
    41
    9–88 9–81
  • Sig strikes (combined) 84 21–157
  • Takedowns
    1.1
    0.1
    0.0–2.9 0.0–1.8
  • Takedowns (combined) 2.0 0.0–5.0
  • Knockdowns (combined) 0.0 0.0–0.0
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Rodriguez

    Christian Rodriguez eats 2.1 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Amil

    Hyder Amil lands 3.7 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 KO rate favours Amil

    Hyder Amil finishes by KO 60% more often

  • 04 Finish rate favours Amil

    Hyder Amil finishes 38% more of their wins

  • 05 Takedown defence favours Rodriguez

    Christian Rodriguez stuffs 24% more incoming takedowns

  • 06 Takedown volume favours Rodriguez

    Christian Rodriguez hits 0.08 more takedowns per minute

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 53 markets analysed
No markets passed the empirical-ROI gate. 53 markets analysed.
Kevin Borjas
Kevin Borjas
Peru 10-5-0 Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
SB 5.50
15% | 85%
Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 10:45 AM AEST
Andre Lima
Andre Lima
Brazil 11-0-0 Kickboxer Orthodox 3-fight win streak
SB 1.15
Breakdown ▼
1 value bet on SportsBet
Model Favourite
Andre Lima
84.8 %
050100
90% CI · 55 – 98 · σ 0.066 · High
Why this pick
  • Andre Lima eats 3.9 fewer strikes per minute
  • Andre Lima rides a 3-fight longer win streak
  • Kevin Borjas finishes by KO 40% more often
  • Andre Lima rides a 3-fight win streak (Kevin Borjas: 0)
  • Andre Lima has never been finished in 3 fights
Method Breakdown
Borjas Lima
KO/TKO 4.1
30.8
Submission 1.5
12.3
Decision 9.6
41.7
Finish Distribution · By Round
25
R1
16
R2
8
R3
0
R4
0
R5
51
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Borjas Lima
Str/min 3.5
4.1
Sig Acc 44%
60%
Str Def 49%
55%
TD/min 0.00
0.09
Finish 40%
33%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
  • Sig strikes
    40
    57
    8–68 10–85
  • Sig strikes (combined) 90 21–143
  • Takedowns
    0.0
    0.5
    0.0–1.6 0.0–2.6
  • Takedowns (combined) 1.4 0.0–4.2
  • Knockdowns (combined) 0.0 0.0–0.0
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Lima

    Andre Lima eats 3.9 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Lima

    Andre Lima rides a 3-fight longer win streak

  • 03 KO rate favours Borjas

    Kevin Borjas finishes by KO 40% more often

  • 04 Submission rate favours Lima

    Andre Lima taps opponents 33% more often

  • 05 Striking volume favours Lima

    Andre Lima lands 0.6 more sig strikes per minute

  • 06 Striking accuracy favours Lima

    Andre Lima is 16% more accurate on the feet

Value Bets · SportsBet 1 flagged · 54 markets analysed
  • Andre Lima wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2
    Solid edge
    Model 26%
    Bookies 22%
    EV / $100 +$18
    Stake 1.3%
    4.60
    $13 returns $60
    +$47 profit
Melsik Baghdasaryan
Melsik Baghdasaryan
Armenia 8-3-0 MMA Southpaw 1 loss
SB 3.54
32% | 68%
Featherweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 10:15 AM AEST
MM
Murtazali Magomedov
Kyrgyzstan 1-0-0 Orthodox
SB 1.30
Breakdown ▼
9 value bets on SportsBet
Model Favourite
Murtazali Magomedov
68.0 %
050100
90% CI · 38 – 98 · σ 0.054 · High
Why this pick
  • Murtazali Magomedov comes in on a 1-fight cleaner skid
  • Melsik Baghdasaryan out-volumes opponents at 4.5 sig/min vs Murtazali Magomedov's 0.0
  • Melsik Baghdasaryan has a 5-fight UFC experience edge (5 vs 0)
Method Breakdown
Baghdasaryan Magomedov
KO/TKO 11.6
14.6
Submission 1.7
16.2
Decision 18.7
37.1
Finish Distribution · By Round
25
R1
12
R2
7
R3
0
R4
0
R5
56
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Baghdasaryan Magomedov
Str/min 4.5
0.0
Sig Acc 57%
0%
Str Def 58%
0%
TD/min 0.00
0.00
Finish 60%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
  • Sig strikes
    39
    29
    6–80 7–70
  • Sig strikes (combined) 71 16–159
  • Takedowns
    0.0
    0.7
    0.0–2.4 0.0–3.3
  • Takedowns (combined) 1.2 0.0–4.5
  • Knockdowns (combined) 0.0 0.0–0.0
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Loss streak favours Magomedov

    Murtazali Magomedov comes in on a 1-fight cleaner skid

Value Bets · SportsBet 9 flagged · 53 markets analysed
  • Melsik Baghdasaryan wins by DEC
    Solid edge
    Model 19%
    Bookies 12%
    EV / $100 +$54
    Stake 1.9%
    8.25
    $19 returns $157
    +$138 profit
  • Melsik Baghdasaryan wins by Sub or Decision
    Solid edge
    Model 20%
    Bookies 14%
    EV / $100 +$43
    Stake 1.8%
    7.00
    $18 returns $126
    +$108 profit
  • Melsik Baghdasaryan wins by Decision
    Solid edge
    Model 19%
    Bookies 13%
    EV / $100 +$40
    Stake 1.5%
    7.50
    $15 returns $112
    +$98 profit
  • Fight goes to Decision
    Strong edge
    Model 56%
    Bookies 40%
    EV / $100 +$39
    Stake 6.6%
    2.50
    $66 returns $165
    +$99 profit
  • Over 2.5 rounds
    Strong edge
    Model 59%
    Bookies 45%
    EV / $100 +$30
    Stake 6.3%
    2.20
    $63 returns $139
    +$76 profit
  • Murtazali Magomedov wins by DEC
    Strong edge
    Model 37%
    Bookies 29%
    EV / $100 +$30
    Stake 3.0%
    3.50
    $30 returns $105
    +$75 profit
  • Murtazali Magomedov wins by Decision
    Strong edge
    Model 37%
    Bookies 31%
    EV / $100 +$21
    Stake 2.3%
    3.25
    $23 returns $75
    +$52 profit
  • Fight reaches Round 3
    Strong edge
    Model 62%
    Bookies 53%
    EV / $100 +$17
    Stake 4.9%
    1.88
    $49 returns $92
    +$43 profit
  • Melsik Baghdasaryan wins
    Solid edge
    Model 32%
    Bookies 28%
    EV / $100 +$13
    Stake 1.3%
    3.54
    $13 returns $46
    +$33 profit
Melissa Mullins
Melissa Mullins
England 7-2-0 MMA Orthodox 1 loss
SB 4.90
17% | 83%
Women's Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 9:35 AM AEST
Bia Mesquita
Bia Mesquita
Brazil 6-0-0 Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 2-fight win streak
SB 1.18
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Bia Mesquita
82.6 %
050100
90% CI · 53 – 98 · σ 0.079 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Bia Mesquita eats 3.7 fewer strikes per minute
  • Bia Mesquita lands 2.1 more sig strikes per minute
  • Bia Mesquita taps opponents 100% more often
  • Bia Mesquita out-volumes opponents at 5.8 sig/min vs Melissa Mullins's 3.7
  • Bia Mesquita has never been finished in 2 fights
Method Breakdown
Mullins Mesquita
KO/TKO 4.6
19.1
Submission 1.6
24.2
Decision 11.1
39.3
Finish Distribution · By Round
21
R1
20
R2
8
R3
0
R4
0
R5
50
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Mullins Mesquita
Str/min 3.7
5.8
Sig Acc 50%
60%
Str Def 53%
81%
TD/min 0.14
0.32
Finish 50%
100%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
  • Sig strikes
    25
    36
    6–61 7–73
  • Sig strikes (combined) 61 14–136
  • Takedowns
    0.2
    1.4
    0.0–2.3 0.0–4.0
  • Takedowns (combined) 2.3 0.0–4.7
  • Knockdowns (combined) 0.0 0.0–0.0
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Mesquita

    Bia Mesquita eats 3.7 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Mesquita

    Bia Mesquita lands 2.1 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Submission rate favours Mesquita

    Bia Mesquita taps opponents 100% more often

  • 04 Win streak favours Mesquita

    Bia Mesquita rides a 2-fight longer win streak

  • 05 Finish rate favours Mesquita

    Bia Mesquita finishes 50% more of their wins

  • 06 KO rate favours Mullins

    Melissa Mullins finishes by KO 50% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed
No markets passed the empirical-ROI gate. 2 markets analysed.
Allan Nascimento
Allan Nascimento
Brazil 22-6-0 Striker Orthodox 4-fight win streak
SB 1.50
61% | 39%
Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 9:10 AM AEST
Mitch Raposo
Mitch Raposo
United States 10-3-0 Freestyle Switch Stance 1 win
SB 2.62
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Allan Nascimento
60.5 %
050100
90% CI · 31 – 91 · σ 0.077 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Allan Nascimento rides a 3-fight longer win streak
  • Allan Nascimento eats 0.8 fewer strikes per minute
  • Allan Nascimento finishes 40% more of their wins
  • Allan Nascimento rides a 4-fight win streak (Mitch Raposo: 1)
  • Allan Nascimento has never been finished in 5 fights
Method Breakdown
Nascimento Raposo
KO/TKO 0.1
4.9
Submission 35.5
1.7
Decision 24.8
32.9
Finish Distribution · By Round
21
R1
13
R2
7
R3
0
R4
0
R5
58
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Nascimento Raposo
Str/min 2.0
1.6
Sig Acc 48%
42%
Str Def 57%
62%
TD/min 0.09
0.16
Finish 40%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
  • Sig strikes
    26
    26
    7–55 8–54
  • Sig strikes (combined) 57 18–115
  • Takedowns
    0.2
    0.5
    0.0–2.6 0.0–3.0
  • Takedowns (combined) 1.9 0.0–5.4
  • Knockdowns (combined) 0.0 0.0–0.0
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Nascimento

    Allan Nascimento rides a 3-fight longer win streak

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Nascimento

    Allan Nascimento eats 0.8 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 Finish rate favours Nascimento

    Allan Nascimento finishes 40% more of their wins

  • 04 Submission rate favours Nascimento

    Allan Nascimento taps opponents 40% more often

  • 05 Striking volume favours Nascimento

    Allan Nascimento lands 0.4 more sig strikes per minute

  • 06 Takedown defence favours Raposo

    Mitch Raposo stuffs 25% more incoming takedowns

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed
No markets passed the empirical-ROI gate. 2 markets analysed.
Gaston Bolanos
Gaston Bolanos
Peru 8-5-0 Striker Orthodox 1 loss
SB 4.10
27% | 73%
Featherweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 8:40 AM AEST
MJ
Michael Aswell Jr.
1-2-0 Orthodox 1 loss
SB 1.24
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Michael Aswell Jr.
73.4 %
050100
90% CI · 43 – 98 · σ 0.050 · High
Why this pick
  • Gaston Bolanos eats 5.3 fewer strikes per minute
  • Michael Aswell Jr. lands 2.7 more sig strikes per minute
  • Gaston Bolanos finishes 18% more of their wins
  • Michael Aswell Jr. out-volumes opponents at 5.8 sig/min vs Gaston Bolanos's 3.1
  • Michael Aswell Jr. has never been finished in 3 fights
Method Breakdown
Bolanos Jr.
KO/TKO 6.9
23.2
Submission 3.1
15.3
Decision 16.6
34.9
Finish Distribution · By Round
24
R1
13
R2
11
R3
0
R4
0
R5
51
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Bolanos Jr.
Str/min 3.1
5.8
Sig Acc 46%
34%
Str Def 51%
51%
TD/min 0.04
0.03
Finish 47%
29%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
  • Sig strikes
    32
    39
    7–86 7–77
  • Sig strikes (combined) 79 19–143
  • Takedowns
    0.1
    0.0
    0.0–1.9 0.0–2.2
  • Takedowns (combined) 1.0 0.0–4.1
  • Knockdowns (combined) 0.0 0.0–0.0
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Bolanos

    Gaston Bolanos eats 5.3 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Jr.

    Michael Aswell Jr. lands 2.7 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Finish rate favours Bolanos

    Gaston Bolanos finishes 18% more of their wins

  • 04 Striking accuracy favours Bolanos

    Gaston Bolanos is 12% more accurate on the feet

  • 05 Durability favours Jr.

    Michael Aswell Jr. has been finished 50% less often

  • 06 KO rate favours Jr.

    Michael Aswell Jr. finishes by KO 6% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed
No markets passed the empirical-ROI gate. 2 markets analysed.
Karol Rosa
Karol Rosa
Brazil 19-7-0 Muay Thai Orthodox 1 win
SB 1.87
38% | 62%
Women's Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 8:10 AM AEST
Luana Santos
Luana Santos
Brazil 10-2-0 Judo Orthodox 2-fight win streak
SB 1.97
Breakdown ▼
1 value bet on SportsBet
Model Favourite
Luana Santos
61.8 %
050100
90% CI · 32 – 92 · σ 0.065 · High
Why this pick
  • Luana Santos eats 1.7 fewer strikes per minute
  • Karol Rosa lands 2.9 more sig strikes per minute
  • Luana Santos finishes 50% more of their wins
  • Karol Rosa out-volumes opponents at 5.9 sig/min vs Luana Santos's 3.0
  • Karol Rosa has never been finished in 12 fights
Method Breakdown
Rosa Santos
KO/TKO 7.4
8.0
Submission 2.7
11.0
Decision 28.2
42.8
Finish Distribution · By Round
13
R1
9
R2
7
R3
0
R4
0
R5
71
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Rosa Santos
Str/min 5.9
3.0
Sig Acc 56%
53%
Str Def 50%
64%
TD/min 0.08
0.14
Finish 0%
50%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
  • Sig strikes
    55
    43
    7–83 9–69
  • Sig strikes (combined) 97 21–136
  • Takedowns
    0.1
    1.0
    0.0–1.7 0.0–3.5
  • Takedowns (combined) 2.1 0.0–4.7
  • Knockdowns (combined) 0.0 0.0–0.0
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Santos

    Luana Santos eats 1.7 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Rosa

    Karol Rosa lands 2.9 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Finish rate favours Santos

    Luana Santos finishes 50% more of their wins

  • 04 Win streak favours Santos

    Luana Santos rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 05 Submission rate favours Santos

    Luana Santos taps opponents 33% more often

  • 06 KO rate favours Santos

    Luana Santos finishes by KO 17% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 1 flagged · 2 markets analysed
  • Luana Santos wins
    Strong edge
    Model 62%
    Bookies 51%
    EV / $100 +$22
    Stake 5.6%
    1.97
    $56 returns $110
    +$54 profit
LS
Leon Shahbazyan
United States 7-1-0 Striker Orthodox
50% | 50%
Welterweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 7:00 AM AEST
LC
Levan Chokheli
Georgia 14-3-0 MMA
Breakdown ▼
⟁ Win prediction & SportsBet odds will populate closer to event night. Career stats below.

Fighter Statistics

ShahbazyanChokheli
Career record 7-1-0 14-3-0
Last 3 win % — —
Finish rate — —
KO/TKO rate — —
Sub rate — —
Sig strikes / min ↑ — —

Predicted Outcomes

Win probability and method/round breakdowns appear here once the matrix processes this card.

Tip: stats above are computed from each fighter's full UFC history. Compare KO/TKO rate vs sub rate to gauge likely method even before predictions land.

OT
Otari Tanzilovi
Georgia 10-1-0 Kickboxer Orthodox
50% | 50%
Featherweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 7:00 AM AEST
SC
Shane Collins
United States 7-0-0 Freestyle
Breakdown ▼
⟁ Win prediction & SportsBet odds will populate closer to event night. Career stats below.

Fighter Statistics

TanziloviCollins
Career record 10-1-0 7-0-0
Last 3 win % — —
Finish rate — —
KO/TKO rate — —
Sub rate — —
Sig strikes / min ↑ — —

Predicted Outcomes

Win probability and method/round breakdowns appear here once the matrix processes this card.

Tip: stats above are computed from each fighter's full UFC history. Compare KO/TKO rate vs sub rate to gauge likely method even before predictions land.