UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi 2 — Results & Recap

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⟁ Past Events — Predictions vs. Actual Results

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Correct Picks

75.0% accuracy · 8 events

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$1000 / event · Conservative · Kelly-weighted · closing: −$313

27 of 31 confident picks landed — when the model gives a fighter 70%+ it has been right 87% of the time

4–6 betting record with the same amount on every recommended bet (-1.6 units — early days, small sample)

UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres 2026-06-27 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly · −$471

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Manuel Torres wins	Rafael Fiziev vs Manuel Torres	1.96	$427	✗ lost −$427
Eric Nolan wins by Sub or Decision	Eric Nolan vs Farman Hasanov	5.30	$258	✗ lost −$258
Matheus Camilo wins	Nazim Sadykhov vs Matheus Camilo	2.99	$177	✓ won +$352
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	Julius Walker vs Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev	3.92	—	⋯ pending
Fight reaches Round 2	Julius Walker vs Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev	2.17	—	⋯ pending
Michel Pereira wins	Michel Pereira vs Shara Magomedov	3.82	$139	✗ lost −$139

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi 2 2026-06-20 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly · +$546

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Luana Santos wins	Karol Rosa vs Luana Santos	1.97	$785	✓ won +$761
Kyoji Horiguchi wins by KO/TKO	Kyoji Horiguchi vs Manel Kape	11.50	$215	✗ lost −$215

UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje 2026-06-15 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly · −$116

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Josh Hokit wins by KO or Decision	Derrick Lewis vs Josh Hokit	1.78	$331	✓ won +$258
Ilia Topuria wins by DEC	Justin Gaethje vs Ilia Topuria	13.00	$259	✗ lost −$259
Steve Garcia wins	Steve Garcia vs Diego Lopes	2.48	$237	✗ lost −$237
Bo Nickal wins by KO or Decision	Kyle Daukaus vs Bo Nickal	1.71	$172	✓ won +$122

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi 2 9/12 · 75%

2026-06-20

Kyoji Horiguchi

36-5-0

Winner

Manel Kape

KO/TKO · R3

✓ predicted

Manel Kape

22-7-0

▼

Model Prediction

Kyoji Horiguchi 46%

KO 19%· Sub 3%· Dec 24%

Manel Kape ✓ won 54%

KO 22%· Sub 7%· Dec 24%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Manel Kape wins	54%	1.57	✓ predicted
Method Manel Kape wins by Decision	24%	3.50	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	48%	1.84	missed

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Kyoji Horiguchi wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2 value	12%	19.00	✗ lost
Kyoji Horiguchi wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3 value	9%	23.00	✗ lost
Kyoji Horiguchi wins by KO/TKO value	19%	11.00	✗ lost
Kyoji Horiguchi wins by KO/TKO in R1 value	6%	31.00	✗ lost
Kyoji Horiguchi wins by KO/TKO in R3	4%	46.00	✗ lost
Kyoji Horiguchi wins by KO/TKO in R2	5%	34.00	✗ lost
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	68%	2.49	✓ won
Kyoji Horiguchi wins by KO/TKO in R3 or R4	6%	26.00	✗ lost
Manel Kape wins by Submission in R1, R2 or R3	6%	23.00	✗ lost
Manel Kape wins by SUB	7%	18.00	✗ lost
Kyoji Horiguchi wins by KO or Decision value	43%	3.00	✗ lost
Manel Kape wins by Submission in R2, R3 or R4	4%	29.00	✗ lost
Manel Kape wins by Submission in R3	2%	81.00	✗ lost
Manel Kape wins by Submission in R1	2%	51.00	✗ lost
Manel Kape wins by Submission in R2	2%	61.00	✗ lost
Kyoji Horiguchi wins by KO or Sub value	22%	5.40	✗ lost
Kyoji Horiguchi wins by finish in Round 2	6%	19.00	✗ lost
Kyoji Horiguchi wins by finish in Round 1	8%	15.00	✗ lost
Kyoji Horiguchi wins by KO/TKO in R4	2%	51.00	✗ lost
Kyoji Horiguchi wins value	46%	2.41	✗ lost
Finish before Round 4	43%	2.49	✓ won
Over 2.5 rounds	62%	1.72	—
Kyoji Horiguchi wins by finish in Round 3	5%	21.00	✗ lost
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	68%	1.49	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO	41%	2.40	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	12%	8.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	14%	7.00	✗ lost
Manel Kape wins by Sub or Decision	31%	3.10	✗ lost
Manel Kape takedowns over 0.5	27%	3.60	—
Fight ends before decision	52%	1.84	✓ won
Kyoji Horiguchi wins by KO/TKO in R4 or R5	3%	31.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	9%	10.50	✓ won
Manel Kape takedowns over 1.5	13%	7.00	—
Kyoji Horiguchi wins by DEC	24%	3.90	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 2	82%	1.13	✓ won
Manel Kape wins by Submission in R3, R4 or R5	3%	34.00	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	48%	1.89	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	48%	1.87	✗ lost
Kyoji Horiguchi significant strikes over 19.5	83%	1.08	—
Total takedowns over 0.5	75%	1.20	—
Kyoji Horiguchi wins in R4+ or by Decision	28%	3.25	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 49.5	81%	1.09	—
Manel Kape significant strikes over 19.5	82%	1.07	—
Total significant strikes over 59.5	77%	1.12	—
Kyoji Horiguchi significant strikes over 29.5	76%	1.14	—
Manel Kape wins by DEC	24%	3.50	✗ lost
Manel Kape wins	54%	1.57	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 69.5	73%	1.15	—
Manel Kape wins by Submission in R4	1%	101.00	✗ lost
Manel Kape significant strikes over 29.5	73%	1.12	—
Total significant strikes over 79.5	68%	1.19	—
Kyoji Horiguchi significant strikes over 39.5	66%	1.22	—
Kyoji Horiguchi wins by Sub or Decision	27%	2.85	✗ lost
Manel Kape wins by KO or Decision	47%	1.66	✓ won
Manel Kape wins by KO or Sub	30%	2.60	✓ won
Kyoji Horiguchi takedowns over 0.5	59%	1.30	—
Manel Kape wins in R4+ or by Decision	29%	2.65	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 89.5	62%	1.22	—
Under 2.5 rounds	38%	2.00	—
Kyoji Horiguchi significant strikes over 49.5	56%	1.33	—
Manel Kape significant strikes over 39.5	62%	1.17	—
Total significant strikes over 99.5	56%	1.27	—
Manel Kape wins by KO/TKO in R1, R2 or R3	19%	3.80	✓ won
Total takedowns over 1.5	46%	1.50	—
Fight ends by Submission	11%	6.50	✗ lost
Kyoji Horiguchi significant strikes over 59.5	47%	1.45	—
Manel Kape wins by KO/TKO in R2, R3 or R4	14%	4.90	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 109.5	51%	1.31	—
Manel Kape wins by KO/TKO	22%	2.95	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission in R1	4%	18.00	✗ lost
Manel Kape wins by KO/TKO in R3	5%	13.00	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 119.5	47%	1.36	—
Manel Kape significant strikes over 49.5	51%	1.25	—
Manel Kape wins by KO/TKO in R1	8%	8.25	✗ lost
Manel Kape wins by KO/TKO in R2	6%	10.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R4	5%	13.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	3%	21.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 129.5	43%	1.41	—
Fight ends by Submission in R3	2%	26.00	✗ lost
Kyoji Horiguchi significant strikes over 69.5	38%	1.57	—
Kyoji Horiguchi wins by KO/TKO in R5	1%	67.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 139.5	39%	1.47	—
Kyoji Horiguchi wins by finish in Round 1	8%	7.25	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 149.5	35%	1.54	—
Manel Kape significant strikes over 59.5	40%	1.36	—
Manel Kape wins by KO/TKO in R3, R4 or R5	9%	6.25	✓ won
Total takedowns over 2.5	29%	1.77	—
Total significant strikes over 159.5	31%	1.63	—
Kyoji Horiguchi significant strikes over 79.5	29%	1.72	—
Total significant strikes over 169.5	28%	1.72	—
Kyoji Horiguchi takedowns over 1.5	28%	1.67	—
Manel Kape wins by KO/TKO in R4	3%	17.00	✗ lost
Manel Kape significant strikes over 69.5	29%	1.50	—
Total significant strikes over 179.5	23%	1.82	—
Fight ends by Submission in R4	1%	34.00	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 3.5	18%	2.12	—
Manel Kape wins by finish in Round 1	10%	3.45	✗ lost
Kyoji Horiguchi significant strikes over 89.5	17%	2.00	—
Total significant strikes over 189.5	18%	1.93	—
Kyoji Horiguchi wins by Submission in R1, R2 or R3	3%	11.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R5	2%	16.00	✗ lost
Kyoji Horiguchi wins by Submission in R1	1%	26.00	✗ lost
Kyoji Horiguchi wins by SUB	3%	8.75	✗ lost
Kyoji Horiguchi wins by Submission in R2	1%	31.00	✗ lost
Kyoji Horiguchi wins by Submission in R2, R3 or R4	2%	14.00	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 4.5	9%	2.70	—
Kyoji Horiguchi wins by Submission in R3	1%	34.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 199.5	12%	2.05	—
Manel Kape significant strikes over 79.5	13%	1.62	—
Kyoji Horiguchi wins by Submission in R3, R4 or R5	1%	16.00	✗ lost
Manel Kape wins by KO/TKO in R5	1%	19.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 209.5	6%	2.20	—
Kyoji Horiguchi takedowns over 2.5	6%	1.91	—
Total knockdowns over 0.5	2%	1.74	—
Kyoji Horiguchi significant strikes over 99.5	2%	2.25	—

Ion Cutelaba

20-11-1

Winner

Navajo Stirling

KO/TKO · R2

✓ predicted

Navajo Stirling

9-0-0

▼

Model Prediction

Ion Cutelaba 25%

KO 9%· Sub 3%· Dec 13%

Navajo Stirling ✓ won 75%

KO 51%· Sub 2%· Dec 22%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Navajo Stirling wins	75%	1.29	✓ predicted
Method Navajo Stirling wins by KO/TKO value	51%	2.30	✓ predicted
Finish round Finish in Round 1	33%	—	missed

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Navajo Stirling wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2 value	43%	2.90	✓ won
Navajo Stirling wins by KO/TKO in R1 value	26%	4.60	✗ lost
Navajo Stirling wins by KO/TKO value	51%	2.30	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	31%	3.75	✗ lost
Ion Cutelaba wins by DEC	13%	8.75	✗ lost
Navajo Stirling wins by KO/TKO in R2	17%	6.75	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO value	60%	1.84	✓ won
Navajo Stirling wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	25%	4.30	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	19%	5.50	✓ won
Navajo Stirling wins by KO or Sub	53%	1.98	✓ won
Navajo Stirling wins by KO or Decision	73%	1.42	✓ won
Ion Cutelaba wins by Decision	13%	8.00	✗ lost
Finish before Round 2	33%	3.12	✗ lost
Navajo Stirling wins by finish in Round 2	17%	6.00	✓ won
Navajo Stirling wins by finish in Round 1	27%	3.75	✗ lost
Navajo Stirling wins	75%	1.29	✓ won
Ion Cutelaba significant strikes over 19.5	76%	1.28	—
Under 2.5 rounds	59%	1.61	✓ won
Fight ends before decision	65%	1.47	✓ won
Ion Cutelaba wins by KO or Decision	22%	4.40	✗ lost
Navajo Stirling significant strikes over 19.5	81%	1.14	—
Navajo Stirling significant strikes over 29.5	71%	1.30	—
Total significant strikes over 49.5	72%	1.27	—
Total significant strikes over 59.5	66%	1.38	—
Ion Cutelaba significant strikes over 29.5	58%	1.57	—
Total significant strikes over 69.5	60%	1.50	—
Ion Cutelaba wins by Sub or Decision	16%	5.60	✗ lost
Ion Cutelaba wins	25%	3.62	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	35%	2.55	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	41%	2.20	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 79.5	54%	1.65	—
Fight reaches Round 2	67%	1.33	✓ won
Navajo Stirling significant strikes over 39.5	58%	1.53	—
Ion Cutelaba significant strikes over 39.5	44%	2.00	—
Ion Cutelaba significant strikes over 49.5	33%	2.63	—
Navajo Stirling wins in R3+ or by Decision	35%	2.50	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	35%	2.45	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 89.5	47%	1.81	—
Navajo Stirling significant strikes over 49.5	46%	1.80	—
Navajo Stirling wins by KO/TKO in R3	9%	9.25	✗ lost
Ion Cutelaba significant strikes over 59.5	22%	3.50	—
Total takedowns over 0.5	70%	1.09	—
Total significant strikes over 99.5	38%	2.00	—
Navajo Stirling wins by DEC	22%	3.40	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	10%	7.50	✗ lost
Ion Cutelaba takedowns over 0.5	61%	1.22	—
Navajo Stirling significant strikes over 59.5	34%	2.10	—
Ion Cutelaba wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	7%	9.50	✗ lost
Navajo Stirling wins by finish in Round 1	27%	2.50	✗ lost
Ion Cutelaba wins by KO/TKO	9%	7.50	✗ lost
Navajo Stirling wins by Sub or Decision	24%	2.70	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 109.5	28%	2.25	—
Ion Cutelaba wins by KO/TKO in R1	4%	14.00	✗ lost
Ion Cutelaba wins by KO or Sub	12%	5.10	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 1.5	49%	1.21	—
Navajo Stirling significant strikes over 69.5	22%	2.63	—
Ion Cutelaba takedowns over 1.5	38%	1.53	—
Total significant strikes over 119.5	22%	2.55	—
Ion Cutelaba wins by KO/TKO in R2	3%	19.00	✗ lost
Ion Cutelaba wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	4%	12.50	✗ lost
Ion Cutelaba significant strikes over 69.5	12%	4.50	—
Total significant strikes over 129.5	18%	2.90	—
Total significant strikes over 139.5	13%	3.40	—
Navajo Stirling takedowns over 0.5	27%	1.62	—
Total takedowns over 2.5	30%	1.36	—
Ion Cutelaba wins by SUB	3%	12.50	✗ lost
Ion Cutelaba wins by Submission in R1 or R2	3%	15.00	✗ lost
Ion Cutelaba wins by KO/TKO in R3	1%	26.00	✗ lost
Ion Cutelaba wins by finish in Round 1	6%	6.25	✗ lost
Ion Cutelaba wins by Submission in R1	2%	23.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 149.5	9%	4.00	—
Ion Cutelaba wins by Submission in R2	1%	34.00	✗ lost
Ion Cutelaba takedowns over 2.5	18%	1.83	—
Navajo Stirling takedowns over 1.5	15%	2.10	—
Ion Cutelaba wins by Submission in R2 or R3	2%	21.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	5%	6.25	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 3.5	20%	1.55	—
Fight ends by Submission in R1	3%	12.00	✗ lost
Navajo Stirling significant strikes over 79.5	9%	3.30	—
Fight ends by Submission in R2	2%	17.00	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 4.5	13%	1.87	—
Total significant strikes over 159.5	4%	4.75	—
Navajo Stirling wins by Submission in R1 or R2	2%	13.00	✗ lost
Navajo Stirling wins by SUB	2%	10.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	1%	23.00	✗ lost
Navajo Stirling wins by Submission in R1	1%	19.00	✗ lost
Navajo Stirling wins by Submission in R2	1%	29.00	✗ lost
Navajo Stirling takedowns over 2.5	5%	2.75	—
Total takedowns over 5.5	6%	2.18	—
Ion Cutelaba significant strikes over 79.5	1%	6.50	—
Total knockdowns over 0.5	2%	1.38	—

Christian Rodriguez

12-4-0

Winner

Christian Rodriguez

Submission · R1

✓ predicted

Hyder Amil

11-2-0

▼

Model Prediction

Christian Rodriguez ✓ won 71%

KO 16%· Sub 11%· Dec 45%

Hyder Amil 29%

KO 9%· Sub 2%· Dec 18%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Christian Rodriguez wins	71%	1.44	✓ predicted
Method Christian Rodriguez wins by Decision	45%	2.35	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	63%	1.72	missed

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Christian Rodriguez wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	13%	9.25	✗ lost
Christian Rodriguez wins by KO/TKO	16%	7.25	✗ lost
Christian Rodriguez wins by KO or Decision value	61%	1.85	✗ lost
Hyder Amil wins by Decision	18%	6.00	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	63%	1.72	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	63%	1.70	✗ lost
Hyder Amil wins by DEC	18%	5.90	✗ lost
Christian Rodriguez wins by Decision	45%	2.37	✗ lost
Christian Rodriguez wins by DEC	45%	2.35	✗ lost
Christian Rodriguez wins by KO/TKO in R1	7%	14.00	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	66%	1.57	✗ lost
Christian Rodriguez wins	71%	1.44	✓ won
Christian Rodriguez wins by KO/TKO in R2	5%	19.00	✗ lost
Christian Rodriguez wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	8%	12.50	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 3	70%	1.45	✗ lost
Hyder Amil wins by Sub or Decision	20%	5.10	✗ lost
Christian Rodriguez wins by Sub or Decision	56%	1.70	✓ won
Christian Rodriguez significant strikes over 29.5	72%	1.28	—
Christian Rodriguez significant strikes over 19.5	81%	1.12	—
Total significant strikes over 49.5	78%	1.16	—
Christian Rodriguez wins by KO or Sub	26%	3.35	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 59.5	72%	1.22	—
Hyder Amil significant strikes over 19.5	77%	1.10	—
Christian Rodriguez significant strikes over 39.5	58%	1.45	—
Christian Rodriguez takedowns over 0.5	64%	1.30	—
Hyder Amil wins	29%	2.82	✗ lost
Hyder Amil wins by KO or Decision	27%	2.95	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 69.5	63%	1.28	—
Fight ends by KO/TKO	25%	3.25	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 0.5	72%	1.11	—
Finish before Round 3	30%	2.61	✓ won
Hyder Amil significant strikes over 29.5	65%	1.22	—
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	8%	9.25	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 1.5	57%	1.35	—
Christian Rodriguez wins by finish in Round 2	9%	8.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	12%	6.50	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	34%	2.25	✓ won
Christian Rodriguez wins by finish in Round 1	13%	6.00	✓ won
Fight ends before decision	37%	2.04	✓ won
Christian Rodriguez significant strikes over 49.5	44%	1.67	—
Christian Rodriguez wins by KO/TKO in R3	3%	26.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 79.5	54%	1.34	—
Hyder Amil significant strikes over 39.5	52%	1.36	—
Christian Rodriguez takedowns over 1.5	42%	1.62	—
Total significant strikes over 89.5	47%	1.43	—
Total takedowns over 2.5	41%	1.64	—
Total significant strikes over 99.5	42%	1.54	—
Total significant strikes over 109.5	37%	1.68	—
Hyder Amil significant strikes over 49.5	39%	1.57	—
Christian Rodriguez wins by Submission in R1 or R2	9%	6.75	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 119.5	32%	1.84	—
Hyder Amil takedowns over 0.5	32%	1.83	—
Fight ends by Submission	12%	4.80	✓ won
Christian Rodriguez wins by SUB	11%	5.50	✓ won
Christian Rodriguez significant strikes over 59.5	29%	2.00	—
Total significant strikes over 129.5	27%	2.05	—
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	4%	12.50	✗ lost
Christian Rodriguez wins by Submission in R2	4%	15.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	4%	13.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	6%	9.25	✓ won
Christian Rodriguez wins by finish in Round 1	13%	4.25	✓ won
Christian Rodriguez wins by Submission in R1	5%	10.50	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	7%	8.00	✗ lost
Christian Rodriguez significant strikes over 69.5	21%	2.50	—
Hyder Amil takedowns over 1.5	14%	3.60	—
Total takedowns over 3.5	24%	2.02	—
Hyder Amil wins by KO or Sub	11%	4.60	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 139.5	21%	2.30	—
Hyder Amil wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	7%	6.50	✗ lost
Christian Rodriguez significant strikes over 79.5	15%	3.25	—
Hyder Amil wins by KO/TKO	9%	5.30	✗ lost
Hyder Amil significant strikes over 59.5	25%	1.83	—
Hyder Amil wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	5%	9.25	✗ lost
Hyder Amil wins by KO/TKO in R2	3%	14.00	✗ lost
Hyder Amil wins by KO/TKO in R1	4%	10.00	✗ lost
Hyder Amil wins by SUB	2%	26.00	✗ lost
Hyder Amil significant strikes over 69.5	18%	2.25	—
Hyder Amil wins by Submission in R1 or R2	1%	31.00	✗ lost
Christian Rodriguez takedowns over 2.5	20%	2.00	—
Total significant strikes over 149.5	15%	2.65	—
Fight ends by Submission in R3	2%	18.00	✗ lost
Christian Rodriguez significant strikes over 89.5	9%	4.33	—
Hyder Amil wins by Submission in R1	1%	51.00	✗ lost
Hyder Amil wins by Submission in R2 or R3	1%	46.00	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 4.5	15%	2.55	—
Christian Rodriguez wins by Submission in R3	2%	19.00	✗ lost
Hyder Amil significant strikes over 79.5	11%	2.88	—
Hyder Amil wins by KO/TKO in R3	2%	19.00	✗ lost
Hyder Amil wins by finish in Round 1	5%	5.80	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 159.5	9%	3.10	—
Christian Rodriguez significant strikes over 99.5	3%	5.50	—
Total takedowns over 5.5	5%	3.20	—
Hyder Amil significant strikes over 89.5	4%	3.75	—
Total significant strikes over 169.5	2%	3.60	—
Hyder Amil takedowns over 2.5	1%	7.00	—
Total knockdowns over 0.5	2%	1.97	—

Melsik Baghdasaryan

8-3-0

Winner

Murtazali Magomedov

Submission · R1

✓ predicted

Murtazali Magomedov

1-0-0

▼

Model Prediction

Melsik Baghdasaryan 36%

KO 13%· Sub 2%· Dec 21%

Murtazali Magomedov ✓ won 64%

KO 14%· Sub 15%· Dec 35%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Murtazali Magomedov wins	64%	1.19	✓ predicted
Method Murtazali Magomedov wins by Decision value	35%	3.60	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	56%	2.79	missed

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Melsik Baghdasaryan wins by DEC value	21%	10.00	✗ lost
Melsik Baghdasaryan wins by Decision value	21%	9.50	✗ lost
Melsik Baghdasaryan wins by Sub or Decision value	23%	8.50	✗ lost
Melsik Baghdasaryan wins value	36%	4.75	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision value	56%	2.79	✗ lost
Melsik Baghdasaryan wins by KO or Decision value	34%	4.60	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision value	56%	2.70	✗ lost
Murtazali Magomedov wins by DEC value	35%	3.60	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 3 value	63%	1.98	✗ lost
Murtazali Magomedov wins by Decision value	35%	3.50	✗ lost
Melsik Baghdasaryan wins by KO/TKO in R1	7%	14.00	✗ lost
Melsik Baghdasaryan wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	11%	9.00	✗ lost
Melsik Baghdasaryan wins by KO or Sub	15%	6.50	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	59%	1.61	✗ lost
Melsik Baghdasaryan wins by KO/TKO	13%	7.25	✗ lost
Murtazali Magomedov wins by KO or Decision	49%	1.87	✗ lost
Melsik Baghdasaryan wins by Submission in R1	1%	81.00	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	41%	2.20	✓ won
Murtazali Magomedov wins by Sub or Decision	50%	1.75	✓ won
Melsik Baghdasaryan wins by finish in Round 1	9%	10.00	✗ lost
Melsik Baghdasaryan significant strikes over 19.5	73%	1.14	—
Total significant strikes over 49.5	68%	1.17	—
Melsik Baghdasaryan significant strikes over 29.5	61%	1.30	—
Melsik Baghdasaryan takedowns over 1.5	17%	4.50	—
Murtazali Magomedov significant strikes over 19.5	71%	1.10	—
Murtazali Magomedov wins	64%	1.19	✓ won
Melsik Baghdasaryan wins by Submission in R1 or R2	2%	46.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	15%	4.90	✗ lost
Murtazali Magomedov takedowns over 0.5	57%	1.30	—
Total significant strikes over 59.5	60%	1.24	—
Total takedowns over 0.5	65%	1.14	—
Finish before Round 2	25%	2.83	✓ won
Melsik Baghdasaryan significant strikes over 39.5	49%	1.45	—
Melsik Baghdasaryan wins by KO/TKO in R2	4%	19.00	✗ lost
Melsik Baghdasaryan wins by finish in Round 1	9%	8.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 69.5	52%	1.31	—
Fight ends by KO/TKO	27%	2.50	✗ lost
Melsik Baghdasaryan wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	6%	12.00	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 1.5	46%	1.44	—
Melsik Baghdasaryan wins by SUB	2%	34.00	✗ lost
Melsik Baghdasaryan significant strikes over 49.5	39%	1.67	—
Total significant strikes over 79.5	46%	1.39	—
Fight ends before decision	44%	1.40	✓ won
Melsik Baghdasaryan wins by Submission in R2 or R3	1%	71.00	✗ lost
Murtazali Magomedov significant strikes over 29.5	49%	1.20	—
Total significant strikes over 89.5	40%	1.47	—
Melsik Baghdasaryan takedowns over 0.5	29%	2.00	—
Total takedowns over 2.5	32%	1.81	—
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	8%	7.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	10%	5.60	✓ won
Melsik Baghdasaryan significant strikes over 59.5	29%	1.91	—
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	12%	4.40	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 99.5	34%	1.55	—
Murtazali Magomedov wins by finish in Round 1	17%	3.20	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission	17%	3.00	✓ won
Murtazali Magomedov wins by Submission in R1	9%	5.90	✓ won
Murtazali Magomedov wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	12%	4.40	✗ lost
Murtazali Magomedov wins by KO/TKO in R1	8%	6.50	✗ lost
Murtazali Magomedov wins by Submission in R1 or R2	13%	3.90	✓ won
Murtazali Magomedov wins by KO or Sub	29%	1.73	✓ won
Melsik Baghdasaryan wins by KO/TKO in R3	2%	26.00	✗ lost
Murtazali Magomedov wins by KO/TKO	14%	3.60	✗ lost
Murtazali Magomedov wins by SUB	15%	3.15	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 109.5	29%	1.64	—
Murtazali Magomedov significant strikes over 39.5	35%	1.33	—
Total takedowns over 3.5	20%	2.25	—
Murtazali Magomedov takedowns over 1.5	25%	1.72	—
Fight ends by Submission in R2	5%	9.00	✗ lost
Melsik Baghdasaryan significant strikes over 69.5	19%	2.20	—
Total significant strikes over 119.5	24%	1.73	—
Murtazali Magomedov wins by Submission in R2	4%	9.50	✗ lost
Murtazali Magomedov wins by KO/TKO in R2	4%	10.50	✗ lost
Murtazali Magomedov wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	6%	6.75	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	4%	10.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	7%	6.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 129.5	20%	1.84	—
Murtazali Magomedov wins by finish in Round 1	17%	2.15	✓ won
Murtazali Magomedov takedowns over 2.5	17%	2.10	—
Murtazali Magomedov significant strikes over 49.5	23%	1.50	—
Total significant strikes over 139.5	17%	1.96	—
Fight ends by Submission in R3	3%	12.00	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 4.5	10%	3.05	—
Murtazali Magomedov wins by KO/TKO in R3	2%	14.00	✗ lost
Murtazali Magomedov wins by Submission in R3	2%	12.50	✗ lost
Murtazali Magomedov significant strikes over 59.5	17%	1.67	—
Total significant strikes over 149.5	13%	2.07	—
Melsik Baghdasaryan significant strikes over 79.5	10%	2.50	—
Murtazali Magomedov takedowns over 3.5	9%	2.80	—
Total significant strikes over 159.5	10%	2.20	—
Murtazali Magomedov significant strikes over 69.5	10%	1.83	—
Total significant strikes over 169.5	6%	2.40	—
Murtazali Magomedov significant strikes over 79.5	4%	2.10	—
Total significant strikes over 179.5	3%	2.55	—
Total knockdowns over 0.5	2%	1.68	—
Melsik Baghdasaryan significant strikes over 89.5	1%	3.00	—

Andre Fili

25-13-0

Winner

Vinicius Oliveira

KO/TKO · R2

✓ predicted

Vinicius Oliveira

23-4-0

▼

Model Prediction

Andre Fili 24%

KO 4%· Sub 3%· Dec 16%

Vinicius Oliveira ✓ won 76%

KO 20%· Sub 5%· Dec 52%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Vinicius Oliveira wins	76%	1.34	✓ predicted
Method Vinicius Oliveira wins by Decision value	52%	3.15	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	69%	2.08	missed

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Vinicius Oliveira wins by Decision	52%	3.20	✗ lost
Vinicius Oliveira wins by DEC value	52%	3.15	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision value	69%	2.08	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision value	69%	2.05	✗ lost
Vinicius Oliveira wins by Sub or Decision value	57%	2.45	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds value	71%	1.80	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 3 value	74%	1.66	✗ lost
Vinicius Oliveira wins by KO or Decision value	72%	1.50	✓ won
Vinicius Oliveira wins	76%	1.34	✓ won
Andre Fili significant strikes over 39.5	56%	1.83	—
Andre Fili significant strikes over 29.5	68%	1.45	—
Total significant strikes over 59.5	76%	1.28	—
Total significant strikes over 69.5	70%	1.38	—
Andre Fili significant strikes over 19.5	79%	1.22	—
Total significant strikes over 49.5	79%	1.21	—
Total significant strikes over 79.5	64%	1.49	—
Total significant strikes over 89.5	58%	1.63	—
Vinicius Oliveira significant strikes over 59.5	50%	1.91	—
Total significant strikes over 99.5	53%	1.81	—
Andre Fili wins by DEC	16%	5.75	✗ lost
Vinicius Oliveira significant strikes over 49.5	58%	1.62	—
Andre Fili significant strikes over 49.5	40%	2.37	—
Total significant strikes over 109.5	46%	2.03	—
Vinicius Oliveira significant strikes over 29.5	75%	1.22	—
Vinicius Oliveira significant strikes over 19.5	83%	1.10	—
Vinicius Oliveira significant strikes over 39.5	67%	1.36	—
Andre Fili wins by Decision	16%	5.50	✗ lost
Vinicius Oliveira significant strikes over 69.5	39%	2.30	—
Total significant strikes over 119.5	39%	2.30	—
Andre Fili wins by Sub or Decision	19%	4.50	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 129.5	32%	2.65	—
Vinicius Oliveira significant strikes over 79.5	28%	2.88	—
Andre Fili wins by KO or Decision	21%	3.75	✗ lost
Andre Fili wins	24%	3.30	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 0.5	72%	1.06	—
Total significant strikes over 139.5	25%	3.05	—
Andre Fili significant strikes over 59.5	22%	3.30	—
Vinicius Oliveira takedowns over 0.5	47%	1.40	—
Total significant strikes over 149.5	17%	3.60	—
Vinicius Oliveira significant strikes over 89.5	17%	3.60	—
Finish before Round 2	16%	3.70	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 1.5	51%	1.15	—
Vinicius Oliveira wins by KO/TKO in R1	10%	5.75	✗ lost
Andre Fili takedowns over 0.5	47%	1.22	—
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	12%	4.60	✗ lost
Vinicius Oliveira wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	16%	3.45	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 1	16%	3.50	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	29%	1.90	✓ won
Vinicius Oliveira wins by KO/TKO	20%	2.75	✓ won
Andre Fili significant strikes over 69.5	12%	4.50	—
Vinicius Oliveira wins by KO or Sub	24%	2.20	✓ won
Fight ends before decision	31%	1.69	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO	24%	2.18	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	10%	4.75	✓ won
Vinicius Oliveira wins by KO/TKO in R2	6%	7.50	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission in R1	4%	12.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	8%	6.00	✓ won
Vinicius Oliveira wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	10%	4.80	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission	7%	6.25	✗ lost
Andre Fili wins by SUB	3%	16.00	✗ lost
Andre Fili wins by KO or Sub	7%	6.25	✗ lost
Andre Fili wins by Submission in R1	1%	31.00	✗ lost
Andre Fili wins by Submission in R1 or R2	2%	19.00	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 2.5	35%	1.26	—
Andre Fili takedowns over 1.5	29%	1.53	—
Vinicius Oliveira wins by SUB	5%	9.25	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 159.5	10%	4.30	—
Vinicius Oliveira wins by Submission in R1	2%	18.00	✗ lost
Vinicius Oliveira wins by Submission in R1 or R2	4%	11.00	✗ lost
Andre Fili wins by KO/TKO	4%	8.75	✗ lost
Andre Fili wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	4%	10.50	✗ lost
Andre Fili wins by KO/TKO in R1	2%	17.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	2%	16.00	✗ lost
Andre Fili wins by Submission in R2	1%	41.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	5%	7.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	4%	9.00	✗ lost
Vinicius Oliveira wins by KO/TKO in R3	3%	11.00	✗ lost
Andre Fili wins by Submission in R2 or R3	1%	26.00	✗ lost
Vinicius Oliveira takedowns over 1.5	20%	1.72	—
Vinicius Oliveira wins by Submission in R2	1%	23.00	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 3.5	23%	1.41	—
Andre Fili wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	2%	15.00	✗ lost
Andre Fili wins by KO/TKO in R2	1%	21.00	✗ lost
Andre Fili takedowns over 2.5	16%	1.80	—
Fight ends by Submission in R3	1%	23.00	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 4.5	17%	1.65	—
Vinicius Oliveira wins by Submission in R3	1%	34.00	✗ lost
Vinicius Oliveira significant strikes over 99.5	6%	4.50	—
Andre Fili wins by KO/TKO in R3	1%	34.00	✗ lost
Vinicius Oliveira takedowns over 2.5	10%	2.10	—
Total takedowns over 5.5	10%	1.91	—
Total significant strikes over 169.5	2%	5.10	—
Andre Fili takedowns over 3.5	5%	2.20	—
Andre Fili significant strikes over 79.5	1%	7.00	—
Total takedowns over 6.5	4%	2.25	—
Total knockdowns over 0.5	2%	1.53	—

Kevin Borjas

10-5-0

Winner

Kevin Borjas

Decision (U) · R3

✗ wrong

Andre Lima

11-0-0

▼

Model Prediction

Kevin Borjas ✓ won 15%

KO 4%· Sub 1%· Dec 9%

Andre Lima 85%

KO 31%· Sub 12%· Dec 42%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Andre Lima wins	85%	1.14	missed
Method Andre Lima wins by Decision	42%	2.30	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	51%	2.00	✓ predicted

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Kevin Borjas wins by DEC	9%	13.00	✓ won
Andre Lima wins by KO/TKO in R1	16%	7.25	✗ lost
Andre Lima wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	26%	4.25	✗ lost
Andre Lima wins by KO/TKO	31%	3.50	✗ lost
Kevin Borjas wins by Sub or Decision	11%	9.75	✓ won
Andre Lima wins by KO or Decision	73%	1.43	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	18%	5.80	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	51%	2.00	✓ won
Fight goes to Decision	51%	1.98	✓ won
Andre Lima wins by finish in Round 1	22%	4.50	✗ lost
Andre Lima wins in R3+ or by Decision	51%	1.95	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 3	59%	1.65	✓ won
Finish before Round 2	25%	3.92	✗ lost
Andre Lima wins	85%	1.14	✗ lost
Andre Lima wins by DEC	42%	2.30	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	35%	2.70	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	45%	2.10	✗ lost
Kevin Borjas wins by Decision	9%	10.00	✓ won
Over 2.5 rounds	55%	1.66	✓ won
Andre Lima wins by KO or Sub	43%	2.12	✗ lost
Andre Lima wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	15%	6.00	✗ lost
Andre Lima wins by Sub or Decision	54%	1.61	✗ lost
Kevin Borjas wins	15%	5.80	✓ won
Fight ends before decision	49%	1.75	✗ lost
Kevin Borjas wins by KO or Decision	13%	6.25	✓ won
Andre Lima wins by KO/TKO in R3	5%	16.00	✗ lost
Andre Lima wins by KO/TKO in R2	10%	8.25	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	11%	6.75	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	16%	4.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	6%	12.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	8%	8.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	7%	9.00	✗ lost
Andre Lima wins by Submission in R1	6%	10.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	14%	4.40	✗ lost
Andre Lima wins by SUB	12%	4.90	✗ lost
Andre Lima wins by Submission in R1 or R2	10%	5.80	✗ lost
Andre Lima wins by finish in Round 1	22%	2.55	✗ lost
Andre Lima wins by Submission in R2 or R3	6%	8.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	4%	10.00	✗ lost
Kevin Borjas wins by Submission in R1	1%	61.00	✗ lost
Andre Lima wins by Submission in R2	4%	11.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	2%	19.00	✗ lost
Andre Lima wins by Submission in R3	2%	21.00	✗ lost
Kevin Borjas wins by KO or Sub	5%	8.00	✗ lost
Kevin Borjas wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	3%	12.50	✗ lost
Kevin Borjas wins by SUB	1%	29.00	✗ lost
Kevin Borjas wins by Submission in R1 or R2	1%	34.00	✗ lost
Kevin Borjas wins by KO/TKO	4%	10.00	✗ lost
Kevin Borjas wins by KO/TKO in R1	2%	19.00	✗ lost
Kevin Borjas wins by KO/TKO in R2	1%	29.00	✗ lost
Kevin Borjas wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	2%	17.00	✗ lost
Kevin Borjas wins by finish in Round 1	3%	11.00	✗ lost
Kevin Borjas wins by finish in Round 1	3%	10.00	✗ lost
Kevin Borjas wins by KO/TKO in R3	1%	34.00	✗ lost

Melissa Mullins

7-2-0

Winner

Bia Mesquita

Submission · R1

✓ predicted

Bia Mesquita

6-0-0

▼

Model Prediction

Melissa Mullins 18%

KO 5%· Sub 2%· Dec 12%

Bia Mesquita ✓ won 82%

KO 19%· Sub 24%· Dec 39%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Bia Mesquita wins	82%	1.13	✓ predicted
Method Bia Mesquita wins by Decision value	39%	4.30	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	51%	3.06	missed

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Bia Mesquita wins by DEC value	39%	4.30	✗ lost
Bia Mesquita wins by Decision value	39%	4.00	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	51%	3.06	✗ lost
Bia Mesquita wins by KO or Decision value	58%	2.60	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision value	51%	2.95	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 3 value	59%	2.13	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	10%	12.00	✗ lost
Bia Mesquita wins by KO/TKO in R2	8%	15.00	✗ lost
Bia Mesquita wins by KO/TKO	19%	6.00	✗ lost
Bia Mesquita wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	11%	10.50	✗ lost
Bia Mesquita wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	16%	7.00	✗ lost
Melissa Mullins wins	18%	6.05	✗ lost
Melissa Mullins wins by DEC	12%	9.25	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	24%	4.50	✗ lost
Melissa Mullins wins by Sub or Decision	13%	7.75	✗ lost
Melissa Mullins wins by Decision	12%	8.50	✗ lost
Melissa Mullins wins by KO or Decision	17%	6.00	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	45%	2.10	✓ won
Bia Mesquita wins	82%	1.13	✓ won
Over 2.5 rounds	55%	1.66	✗ lost
Bia Mesquita wins by KO/TKO in R1	8%	11.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	10%	8.50	✗ lost
Bia Mesquita wins by Sub or Decision	63%	1.35	✓ won
Melissa Mullins wins by KO/TKO in R2	2%	41.00	✗ lost
Bia Mesquita wins by KO/TKO in R3	3%	26.00	✗ lost
Bia Mesquita wins by finish in Round 2	17%	4.50	✗ lost
Melissa Mullins wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	4%	18.00	✗ lost
Melissa Mullins wins by KO or Sub	7%	11.00	✗ lost
Melissa Mullins wins by Submission in R2	1%	101.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	4%	18.00	✗ lost
Finish before Round 3	41%	1.66	✓ won
Melissa Mullins wins by KO/TKO	5%	14.00	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	49%	1.34	✓ won
Melissa Mullins wins by Submission in R1 or R2	1%	46.00	✗ lost
Bia Mesquita wins by KO or Sub	43%	1.49	✓ won
Melissa Mullins wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	3%	23.00	✗ lost
Melissa Mullins wins by KO/TKO in R1	2%	29.00	✗ lost
Melissa Mullins wins by Submission in R1	1%	81.00	✗ lost
Melissa Mullins wins by SUB	2%	34.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 1	21%	2.65	✓ won
Melissa Mullins wins by finish in Round 2	3%	21.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	10%	5.30	✗ lost
Bia Mesquita wins by Submission in R2	10%	5.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	8%	6.25	✗ lost
Bia Mesquita wins by Submission in R2 or R3	14%	3.60	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	26%	1.84	✓ won
Bia Mesquita wins by Submission in R1 or R2	20%	2.30	✓ won
Bia Mesquita wins by SUB	24%	1.91	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission in R1	11%	3.60	✓ won
Bia Mesquita wins by Submission in R1	10%	3.75	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission in R3	4%	8.75	✗ lost
Melissa Mullins wins by KO/TKO in R3	1%	46.00	✗ lost
Bia Mesquita wins by Submission in R3	4%	9.00	✗ lost

Allan Nascimento

22-6-0

Winner

Mitch Raposo

Decision (S) · R3

✗ wrong

Mitch Raposo

10-3-0

▼

Model Prediction

Allan Nascimento 57%

KO 0%· Sub 34%· Dec 24%

Mitch Raposo ✓ won 43%

KO 5%· Sub 2%· Dec 36%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Allan Nascimento wins	57%	1.64	missed
Method Allan Nascimento wins by Submission value	34%	3.80	missed
Finish round Finish in Round 1	21%	—	missed

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Allan Nascimento wins by Submission in R1 or R2 value	28%	4.80	✗ lost
Allan Nascimento wins by SUB value	34%	3.80	✗ lost
Allan Nascimento wins by Submission in R1 value	17%	7.25	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	18%	6.75	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission value	35%	3.40	✗ lost
Allan Nascimento wins by Submission in R2	11%	11.00	✗ lost
Allan Nascimento wins by Submission in R2 or R3	16%	7.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	11%	10.00	✗ lost
Allan Nascimento wins by KO or Sub	34%	3.20	✗ lost
Mitch Raposo wins by Decision	36%	3.00	✓ won
Finish before Round 3	34%	3.12	✗ lost
Mitch Raposo wins by DEC	36%	2.95	✓ won
Allan Nascimento wins by finish in Round 1	17%	6.00	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	37%	2.75	✗ lost
Allan Nascimento wins by Sub or Decision	57%	1.77	✗ lost
Mitch Raposo wins by Sub or Decision	37%	2.70	✓ won
Fight ends before decision	41%	2.39	✗ lost
Mitch Raposo wins	43%	2.27	✓ won
Allan Nascimento wins in R3+ or by Decision	38%	2.55	✗ lost
Mitch Raposo wins by KO or Decision	41%	2.35	✓ won
Allan Nascimento wins	57%	1.64	✗ lost
Allan Nascimento wins by finish in Round 2	11%	8.50	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 2	79%	1.16	✓ won
Fight goes to decision	59%	1.53	✓ won
Fight goes to Decision	59%	1.52	✓ won
Over 2.5 rounds	63%	1.40	✓ won
Allan Nascimento wins by Submission in R3	6%	14.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	6%	12.50	✗ lost
Allan Nascimento wins by DEC	24%	3.10	✗ lost
Allan Nascimento wins by finish in Round 1	17%	4.00	✗ lost
Allan Nascimento wins by KO or Decision	24%	2.65	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	7%	8.75	✗ lost
Mitch Raposo wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	4%	13.00	✗ lost
Mitch Raposo wins by KO/TKO in R1	3%	21.00	✗ lost
Mitch Raposo wins by KO or Sub	7%	7.50	✗ lost
Mitch Raposo wins by KO/TKO	5%	10.00	✗ lost
Mitch Raposo wins by Submission in R1	1%	51.00	✗ lost
Mitch Raposo wins by KO/TKO in R2	2%	26.00	✗ lost
Mitch Raposo wins by finish in Round 1	4%	12.00	✗ lost
Mitch Raposo wins by Submission in R1 or R2	1%	29.00	✗ lost
Mitch Raposo wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	3%	15.00	✗ lost
Mitch Raposo wins by SUB	2%	21.00	✗ lost
Mitch Raposo wins by finish in Round 1	4%	10.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	3%	13.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	5%	6.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	2%	17.00	✗ lost
Mitch Raposo wins by KO/TKO in R3	1%	31.00	✗ lost
Mitch Raposo wins by finish in Round 2	2%	12.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	1%	21.00	✗ lost

Gaston Bolaños

8-5-0

Winner

Gaston Bolaños

Decision (U) · R3

✗ wrong

Michael Aswell

11-4-0

▼

Model Prediction post-hoc

Gaston Bolaños ✓ won 30%

KO 8%· Sub 4%· Dec 19%

Michael Aswell 70%

KO 22%· Sub 15%· Dec 33%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Michael Aswell wins	70%	1.24	missed
Method Michael Aswell wins by Decision	33%	2.20	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	52%	2.05	✓ predicted

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Michael Aswell wins by SUB value	15%	12.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission value	18%	9.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	9%	19.00	✗ lost
Michael Aswell wins by Submission in R1 or R2 value	11%	15.00	✗ lost
Michael Aswell wins by Submission in R1	7%	23.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	4%	34.00	✗ lost
Michael Aswell wins by Submission in R3	3%	41.00	✗ lost
Gaston Bolaños wins by Sub or Decision value	22%	5.90	✓ won
Gaston Bolaños wins by DEC	19%	6.75	✓ won
Michael Aswell wins by Submission in R2	4%	31.00	✗ lost
Gaston Bolaños wins value	30%	4.10	✓ won
Gaston Bolaños wins by Submission in R1	2%	67.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	5%	23.00	✗ lost
Gaston Bolaños wins by Decision	19%	6.00	✓ won
Gaston Bolaños wins by KO or Decision	27%	4.20	✓ won
Gaston Bolaños wins by Submission in R1 or R2	3%	41.00	✗ lost
Gaston Bolaños wins by SUB	4%	31.00	✗ lost
Finish before Round 2	24%	4.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 1	24%	4.30	✗ lost
Gaston Bolaños wins by Submission in R3	1%	126.00	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	48%	2.05	✗ lost
Michael Aswell wins by KO or Sub	37%	2.65	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	42%	2.25	✗ lost
Michael Aswell wins by Sub or Decision	48%	1.95	✗ lost
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	63%	1.44	✓ won
Gaston Bolaños wins by Submission in R2 or R3	2%	51.00	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	58%	1.57	✓ won
Fight reaches Round 2	76%	1.17	✓ won
Fight goes to decision	52%	1.71	✓ won
Fight goes to Decision	52%	1.70	✓ won
Gaston Bolaños wins by Submission in R2	1%	91.00	✗ lost
Michael Aswell wins	70%	1.24	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	11%	7.75	✗ lost
Gaston Bolaños wins by KO or Sub	11%	7.50	✗ lost
Michael Aswell wins in R3+ or by Decision	44%	1.88	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	13%	5.80	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	15%	5.20	✗ lost
Michael Aswell wins by KO or Decision	55%	1.34	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	30%	2.45	✗ lost
Michael Aswell wins by DEC	33%	2.20	✗ lost
Michael Aswell wins by KO/TKO in R1	11%	6.50	✗ lost
Michael Aswell wins by KO/TKO	22%	3.20	✗ lost
Gaston Bolaños wins by KO/TKO	8%	9.00	✗ lost
Michael Aswell wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	17%	4.10	✗ lost
Gaston Bolaños wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	6%	11.00	✗ lost
Gaston Bolaños wins by KO/TKO in R1	4%	17.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	7%	9.25	✗ lost
Michael Aswell wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	11%	5.50	✗ lost
Gaston Bolaños wins by KO/TKO in R3	2%	34.00	✗ lost
Gaston Bolaños wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	4%	15.00	✗ lost
Michael Aswell wins by KO/TKO in R3	5%	11.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	8%	7.00	✗ lost
Michael Aswell wins by KO/TKO in R2	6%	8.75	✗ lost
Gaston Bolaños wins by KO/TKO in R2	2%	23.00	✗ lost

Leon Shahbazyan

7-1-0

Winner

Levan Chokheli

KO/TKO · R1

✓ predicted

Levan Chokheli

14-3-0

▼

Model Prediction post-hoc

Leon Shahbazyan 25%

KO 3%· Sub 9%· Dec 12%

Levan Chokheli ✓ won 75%

KO 43%· Sub 11%· Dec 21%

Karol Rosa

19-7-0

Winner

Luana Santos

Decision (U) · R3

✓ predicted

Luana Santos

10-2-0

▼

Model Prediction

Karol Rosa 27%

KO 5%· Sub 2%· Dec 20%

Luana Santos ✓ won 73%

KO 10%· Sub 13%· Dec 51%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Luana Santos wins value	73%	1.96	✓ predicted
Method Luana Santos wins by Decision value	51%	2.45	✓ predicted
Finish round Goes the distance	70%	4.60	✓ predicted

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Luana Santos wins by KO/TKO value	10%	26.00	✗ lost
Luana Santos wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3 value	5%	46.00	✗ lost
Luana Santos wins by KO/TKO in R2	3%	81.00	✗ lost
Luana Santos wins by KO/TKO in R3	2%	101.00	✗ lost
Luana Santos wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2 value	7%	31.00	✗ lost
Luana Santos wins by KO/TKO in R1	4%	51.00	✗ lost
Luana Santos wins by KO or Sub value	23%	7.25	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	15%	10.00	✗ lost
Luana Santos wins value	73%	1.96	✓ won
Luana Santos wins by KO or Decision value	60%	2.30	✓ won
Fight ends before decision	30%	4.60	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	5%	29.00	✗ lost
Luana Santos wins in R3+ or by Decision value	57%	2.30	✓ won
Under 2.5 rounds	26%	5.00	✗ lost
Luana Santos wins by Sub or Decision value	64%	2.02	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	7%	19.00	✗ lost
Luana Santos wins by DEC value	51%	2.45	✓ won
Finish before Round 3	22%	5.40	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	4%	34.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	9%	12.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	7%	16.00	✗ lost
Luana Santos wins by Submission in R1 or R2	10%	11.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 1	13%	8.50	✗ lost
Luana Santos wins by Submission in R3	3%	34.00	✗ lost
Luana Santos wins by Submission in R2	4%	26.00	✗ lost
Luana Santos wins by SUB	13%	8.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	15%	6.75	✗ lost
Luana Santos wins by Submission in R1	6%	17.00	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 2	87%	1.06	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission in R2	5%	19.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	7%	13.00	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	74%	1.14	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission in R3	4%	23.00	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	70%	1.17	✓ won
Fight goes to Decision	70%	1.16	✓ won
Karol Rosa wins by KO/TKO	5%	14.00	✗ lost
Karol Rosa wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	4%	18.00	✗ lost
Karol Rosa wins by KO/TKO in R1	2%	29.00	✗ lost
Karol Rosa wins by KO/TKO in R2	2%	41.00	✗ lost
Karol Rosa wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	3%	23.00	✗ lost
Karol Rosa wins by KO or Sub	7%	9.25	✗ lost
Karol Rosa wins by KO/TKO in R3	1%	51.00	✗ lost
Karol Rosa wins	27%	1.87	✗ lost
Karol Rosa wins by KO or Decision	25%	1.96	✗ lost
Karol Rosa wins by Decision	20%	2.25	✗ lost
Karol Rosa wins by Sub or Decision	22%	2.02	✗ lost
Karol Rosa wins by DEC	20%	2.18	✗ lost
Karol Rosa wins by SUB	2%	19.00	✗ lost
Karol Rosa wins by Submission in R2 or R3	1%	34.00	✗ lost
Karol Rosa wins by Submission in R1 or R2	1%	23.00	✗ lost
Karol Rosa wins by Submission in R1	1%	34.00	✗ lost

Otari Tanzilovi

10-1-0

Winner

Shane Collins

Decision (U) · R3

✓ predicted

Shane Collins

7-0-0

▼

Model Prediction post-hoc

Otari Tanzilovi 26%

KO 2%· Sub 9%· Dec 15%

Shane Collins ✓ won 74%

KO 24%· Sub 24%· Dec 25%