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⟁ Past Events — Predictions vs. Actual Results
27 of 31
confident picks landed — when the model gives a fighter 70%+ it has been right 87% of the time
4–6
betting record with the same amount on every recommended bet (-1.6 units — early days, small sample)
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi 2 9/12 · 75%
2026-06-20Model Prediction
Kyoji Horiguchi
46%
KO 19%·
Sub 3%·
Dec 24%
Manel Kape
✓ won
54%
KO 22%·
Sub 7%·
Dec 24%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Manel Kape wins | 54% | 1.57 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Manel Kape wins by Decision | 24% | 3.50 | missed |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 48% | 1.84 | missed |
Model Prediction
Ion Cutelaba
25%
KO 9%·
Sub 3%·
Dec 13%
Navajo Stirling
✓ won
75%
KO 51%·
Sub 2%·
Dec 22%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Navajo Stirling wins | 75% | 1.29 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Navajo Stirling wins by KO/TKO value | 51% | 2.30 | ✓ predicted |
| Finish round Finish in Round 1 | 33% | — | missed |
Model Prediction
Christian Rodriguez
✓ won
71%
KO 16%·
Sub 11%·
Dec 45%
Hyder Amil
29%
KO 9%·
Sub 2%·
Dec 18%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Christian Rodriguez wins | 71% | 1.44 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Christian Rodriguez wins by Decision | 45% | 2.35 | missed |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 63% | 1.72 | missed |
Model Prediction
Melsik Baghdasaryan
36%
KO 13%·
Sub 2%·
Dec 21%
Murtazali Magomedov
✓ won
64%
KO 14%·
Sub 15%·
Dec 35%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Murtazali Magomedov wins | 64% | 1.19 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Murtazali Magomedov wins by Decision value | 35% | 3.60 | missed |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 56% | 2.79 | missed |
Model Prediction
Andre Fili
24%
KO 4%·
Sub 3%·
Dec 16%
Vinicius Oliveira
✓ won
76%
KO 20%·
Sub 5%·
Dec 52%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Vinicius Oliveira wins | 76% | 1.34 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Vinicius Oliveira wins by Decision value | 52% | 3.15 | missed |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 69% | 2.08 | missed |
Model Prediction
Kevin Borjas
✓ won
15%
KO 4%·
Sub 1%·
Dec 9%
Andre Lima
85%
KO 31%·
Sub 12%·
Dec 42%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Andre Lima wins | 85% | 1.14 | missed |
| Method Andre Lima wins by Decision | 42% | 2.30 | missed |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 51% | 2.00 | ✓ predicted |
Model Prediction
Melissa Mullins
18%
KO 5%·
Sub 2%·
Dec 12%
Bia Mesquita
✓ won
82%
KO 19%·
Sub 24%·
Dec 39%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Bia Mesquita wins | 82% | 1.13 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Bia Mesquita wins by Decision value | 39% | 4.30 | missed |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 51% | 3.06 | missed |
Model Prediction
Allan Nascimento
57%
KO 0%·
Sub 34%·
Dec 24%
Mitch Raposo
✓ won
43%
KO 5%·
Sub 2%·
Dec 36%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Allan Nascimento wins | 57% | 1.64 | missed |
| Method Allan Nascimento wins by Submission value | 34% | 3.80 | missed |
| Finish round Finish in Round 1 | 21% | — | missed |
Model Prediction post-hoc
Gaston Bolaños
✓ won
30%
KO 8%·
Sub 4%·
Dec 19%
Michael Aswell
70%
KO 22%·
Sub 15%·
Dec 33%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Michael Aswell wins | 70% | 1.24 | missed |
| Method Michael Aswell wins by Decision | 33% | 2.20 | missed |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 52% | 2.05 | ✓ predicted |
Model Prediction post-hoc
Leon Shahbazyan
25%
KO 3%·
Sub 9%·
Dec 12%
Levan Chokheli
✓ won
75%
KO 43%·
Sub 11%·
Dec 21%
Model Prediction
Karol Rosa
27%
KO 5%·
Sub 2%·
Dec 20%
Luana Santos
✓ won
73%
KO 10%·
Sub 13%·
Dec 51%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Luana Santos wins value | 73% | 1.96 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Luana Santos wins by Decision value | 51% | 2.45 | ✓ predicted |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 70% | 4.60 | ✓ predicted |
Model Prediction post-hoc
Otari Tanzilovi
26%
KO 2%·
Sub 9%·
Dec 15%
Shane Collins
✓ won
74%
KO 24%·
Sub 24%·
Dec 25%