UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres — Results & Recap

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⟁ Past Events — Predictions vs. Actual Results

99 / 134

Correct Picks

73.9% accuracy · 12 events

−$304

Parlay P&L

$33 / parlay (2·3·4-leg) · 1-10 · 11 parlays

−$430

Running P&L · opening

$1000 / event · Conservative · Kelly-weighted · closing: +$369

44 of 51 confident picks landed — when the model gives a fighter 70%+ it has been right 86% of the time

10–15 betting record with the same amount on every recommended bet (-7.1 units — early days, small sample)

Bankroll curve $1000 per event · Conservative tier · opening odds −$430

2026-06-15 peak $125 · trough $-471 2026-08-01

UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez 2026-08-01 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · −$33

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Mateusz Rebecki wins	Kyle Prepolec vs Mateusz Rebecki	1.18	$80	✓ won +$14
Oban Elliott wins	Oban Elliott vs Michael Oliveira	3.57	$80	✗ lost −$80
Bogdan Grad wins	Dennis Buzukja vs Bogdan Grad	1.52	$62	✓ won +$32
Fight goes to Decision	Daniel Rodriguez vs Uros Medic	7.25	—	⋯ pending

UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov 2026-07-25 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · −$102

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Nurullo Aliev wins	Mike Davis vs Nurullo Aliev	1.54	$80	✓ won +$43
Tyrell Fortune wins	Rizvan Kuniev vs Tyrell Fortune	3.34	$80	✗ lost −$80
Damian Rzepecki wins	Magomed Zaynukov vs Damian Rzepecki	3.73	$43	✗ lost −$43
Dustin Jacoby wins	Dustin Jacoby vs Muhammad Said	1.59	$23	✗ lost −$23

UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman 2026-07-18 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · +$38

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Chase Hooper wins	Chase Hooper vs Mitch Ramirez	1.27	$80	✓ won +$22
Christian Leroy Duncan wins	Jared Cannonier vs Christian Leroy Duncan	1.32	$80	✓ won +$26
Dricus Du Plessis wins by SUB	Kamaru Usman vs Dricus Du Plessis	9.25	$55	✗ lost −$55
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani wins	Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs Seokhyeon Ko	2.66	$28	✓ won +$46

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 2026-07-11 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly · −$200

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Elisha Ellison wins	Gable Steveson vs Elisha Ellison	10.00	$138	✗ lost −$138
Benoit Saint Denis wins	Paddy Pimblett vs Benoit Saint Denis	1.53	$62	✗ lost −$62

UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres 2026-06-27 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly · −$216

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Manuel Torres wins	Rafael Fiziev vs Manuel Torres	1.96	$115	✗ lost −$115
Eric Nolan wins by Sub or Decision	Eric Nolan vs Farman Hasanov	5.30	$70	✗ lost −$70
Matheus Camilo wins	Nazim Sadykhov vs Matheus Camilo	2.99	$48	✓ won +$95
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	Julius Walker vs Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev	3.92	$44	✗ lost −$44
Fight reaches Round 2	Julius Walker vs Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev	2.17	$44	✗ lost −$44
Michel Pereira wins	Michel Pereira vs Shara Magomedov	3.82	$37	✗ lost −$37

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi 2 2026-06-20 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly · +$109

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Luana Santos wins	Karol Rosa vs Luana Santos	1.97	$157	✓ won +$152
Kyoji Horiguchi wins by KO/TKO	Kyoji Horiguchi vs Manel Kape	11.50	$43	✗ lost −$43

UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje 2026-06-15 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly · −$26

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Josh Hokit wins by KO or Decision	Derrick Lewis vs Josh Hokit	1.78	$73	✓ won +$57
Ilia Topuria wins by DEC	Justin Gaethje vs Ilia Topuria	13.00	$57	✗ lost −$57
Steve Garcia wins	Steve Garcia vs Diego Lopes	2.48	$52	✗ lost −$52
Bo Nickal wins by KO or Decision	Kyle Daukaus vs Bo Nickal	1.71	$38	✓ won +$27

UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez 2026-08-01 · $33/parlay · −$7

2-leg parlay @ 1.79 · $33 stake ✓ WON +$26

3-leg parlay @ 2.31 ⋯ pending

4-leg parlay @ 5.28 · $33 stake ✗ LOST −$33

UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov 2026-07-25 · $33/parlay · −$99

2-leg parlay @ 2.45 · $33 stake ✗ LOST −$33

3-leg parlay @ 4.82 · $33 stake ✗ LOST −$33

4-leg parlay @ 7.24 · $33 stake ✗ LOST −$33

UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman 2026-07-18 · $33/parlay · −$99

2-leg parlay @ 2.24 · $33 stake ✗ LOST −$33

3-leg parlay @ 4.22 · $33 stake ✗ LOST −$33

4-leg parlay @ 5.36 · $33 stake ✗ LOST −$33

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 2026-07-11 · $33/parlay · −$99

2-leg parlay @ 1.99 · $33 stake ✗ LOST −$33

3-leg parlay @ 3.02 · $33 stake ✗ LOST −$33

4-leg parlay @ 4.74 · $33 stake ✗ LOST −$33

UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres 9/12 · 75%

2026-06-27

Rafael Fiziev

13-5-0

Winner

Rafael Fiziev

KO/TKO · R2

✗ wrong

Manuel Torres

17-3-0

▼

Model Prediction

Rafael Fiziev ✓ won 37%

KO 18%· Sub 4%· Dec 14%

Manuel Torres 63%

KO 35%· Sub 12%· Dec 16%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Manuel Torres wins value	63%	1.91	missed
Method Manuel Torres wins by KO/TKO	35%	2.30	missed
Finish round Finish in Round 1	29%	—	missed

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Manuel Torres wins by DEC value	16%	19.00	✗ lost
Manuel Torres wins by Sub or Decision value	28%	8.25	✗ lost
Manuel Torres wins in R4+ or by Decision value	23%	10.00	✗ lost
Manuel Torres wins by Submission in R4	1%	151.00	✗ lost
Manuel Torres wins by Submission in R4 or R5	2%	101.00	✗ lost
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	51%	3.18	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	30%	5.20	✗ lost
Manuel Torres wins by Submission in R3	2%	81.00	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	30%	5.10	✗ lost
Manuel Torres wins by SUB	12%	11.50	✗ lost
Manuel Torres wins by Submission in R1, R2 or R3	11%	13.00	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 5	33%	4.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	17%	7.75	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 3.5	15%	8.50	—
Manuel Torres wins value	63%	1.91	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 2.5	21%	5.50	—
Fight ends by Submission in R4	2%	71.00	✗ lost
Manuel Torres takedowns over 1.5	18%	6.50	—
Fight ends by Submission in R2	5%	23.00	✗ lost
Manuel Torres wins by Submission in R2	4%	31.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	7%	16.00	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	55%	2.00	✓ won
Manuel Torres wins by KO or Decision	51%	2.12	✗ lost
Manuel Torres wins by Submission in R1	5%	21.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	3%	41.00	✗ lost
Manuel Torres wins by finish in Round 3	7%	14.00	✗ lost
Manuel Torres wins by KO/TKO in R3, R4 or R5	10%	9.50	✗ lost
Manuel Torres wins by KO/TKO in R4	3%	29.00	✗ lost
Rafael Fiziev wins by Sub or Decision	18%	5.30	✗ lost
Manuel Torres significant strikes over 69.5	34%	2.88	—
Manuel Torres significant strikes over 29.5	66%	1.45	—
Manuel Torres significant strikes over 59.5	40%	2.40	—
Rafael Fiziev significant strikes over 19.5	74%	1.30	—
Rafael Fiziev significant strikes over 29.5	61%	1.57	—
Manuel Torres significant strikes over 39.5	56%	1.72	—
Manuel Torres significant strikes over 19.5	78%	1.22	—
Manuel Torres wins by KO or Sub	47%	1.99	✗ lost
Manuel Torres significant strikes over 79.5	27%	3.50	—
Rafael Fiziev wins by DEC	14%	6.75	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 1.5	31%	3.00	—
Manuel Torres significant strikes over 89.5	22%	4.33	—
Manuel Torres significant strikes over 49.5	47%	2.00	—
Total significant strikes over 49.5	68%	1.37	—
Total significant strikes over 59.5	62%	1.49	—
Total significant strikes over 129.5	35%	2.65	—
Total significant strikes over 69.5	56%	1.63	—
Total significant strikes over 99.5	44%	2.08	—
Total significant strikes over 119.5	38%	2.40	—
Total significant strikes over 89.5	47%	1.92	—
Total significant strikes over 139.5	32%	2.85	—
Total significant strikes over 109.5	41%	2.20	—
Total significant strikes over 149.5	29%	3.15	—
Rafael Fiziev significant strikes over 39.5	49%	1.83	—
Total significant strikes over 79.5	50%	1.77	—
Total significant strikes over 159.5	25%	3.45	—
Rafael Fiziev significant strikes over 49.5	40%	2.20	—
Total significant strikes over 169.5	23%	3.80	—
Manuel Torres wins by KO/TKO in R3	5%	16.00	✗ lost
Rafael Fiziev takedowns over 1.5	13%	6.50	—
Manuel Torres significant strikes over 99.5	17%	5.00	—
Manuel Torres wins by finish in Round 2	14%	6.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 179.5	20%	4.10	—
Rafael Fiziev wins by Submission in R1	2%	46.00	✗ lost
Finish before Round 5	67%	1.22	✓ won
Manuel Torres wins by KO/TKO	35%	2.30	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	70%	1.14	✓ won
Rafael Fiziev wins by Submission in R1 or R2	3%	26.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 189.5	18%	4.50	—
Rafael Fiziev wins by SUB	4%	18.00	✗ lost
Rafael Fiziev wins by Submission in R2	1%	61.00	✗ lost
Manuel Torres significant strikes over 109.5	12%	6.50	—
Over 2.5 rounds	45%	1.72	✗ lost
Manuel Torres wins by finish in Round 1	19%	4.00	✗ lost
Rafael Fiziev significant strikes over 59.5	31%	2.50	—
Rafael Fiziev wins in R4+ or by Decision	17%	4.40	✗ lost
Manuel Torres takedowns over 0.5	34%	2.20	—
Total significant strikes over 199.5	15%	4.90	—
Total takedowns over 0.5	49%	1.51	—
Fight ends by Submission in R5	1%	91.00	✗ lost
Rafael Fiziev wins	37%	1.93	✓ won
Manuel Torres wins by KO/TKO in R2	10%	6.75	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 209.5	13%	5.50	—
Rafael Fiziev wins by Submission in R2, R3 or R4	2%	29.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	53%	1.28	✓ won
Rafael Fiziev takedowns over 0.5	28%	2.40	—
Rafael Fiziev significant strikes over 69.5	23%	2.88	—
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	51%	1.33	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	16%	4.25	✓ won
Manuel Torres wins by KO/TKO in R5	2%	41.00	✗ lost
Manuel Torres wins by KO/TKO in R1	14%	4.60	✗ lost
Rafael Fiziev wins by KO or Decision	32%	2.03	✓ won
Rafael Fiziev significant strikes over 79.5	19%	3.40	—
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	22%	2.95	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R4	5%	12.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	8%	7.75	✗ lost
Rafael Fiziev significant strikes over 89.5	15%	4.00	—
Total significant strikes over 219.5	10%	6.00	—
Rafael Fiziev wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	13%	4.40	✓ won
Rafael Fiziev wins by KO or Sub	23%	2.45	✓ won
Manuel Torres significant strikes over 119.5	7%	7.50	—
Rafael Fiziev wins by Submission in R3	1%	81.00	✗ lost
Rafael Fiziev wins by Submission in R3, R4 or R5	1%	41.00	✗ lost
Rafael Fiziev wins by KO/TKO in R1	8%	7.00	✗ lost
Rafael Fiziev wins by KO/TKO	18%	2.75	✓ won
Rafael Fiziev wins by KO/TKO in R2	5%	9.25	✓ won
Rafael Fiziev significant strikes over 99.5	11%	4.50	—
Total significant strikes over 229.5	7%	6.50	—
Rafael Fiziev wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	8%	5.90	✓ won
Manuel Torres wins by finish in Round 1	19%	2.20	✗ lost
Rafael Fiziev significant strikes over 109.5	7%	5.50	—
Rafael Fiziev wins by KO/TKO in R3 or R4	5%	8.25	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R5	2%	15.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 239.5	5%	7.50	—
Rafael Fiziev wins by KO/TKO in R3	3%	12.50	✗ lost
Rafael Fiziev wins by KO/TKO in R4	2%	19.00	✗ lost
Rafael Fiziev wins by KO/TKO in R4 or R5	3%	11.00	✗ lost
Rafael Fiziev wins by finish in Round 1	9%	3.10	✗ lost
Manuel Torres significant strikes over 129.5	2%	9.50	—
Total significant strikes over 249.5	2%	8.25	—
Rafael Fiziev significant strikes over 119.5	3%	6.50	—
Rafael Fiziev wins by KO/TKO in R5	1%	21.00	✗ lost
Total knockdowns over 0.5	2%	1.10	—

Michel Pereira

32-14-0

Winner

Shara Magomedov

Decision (U) · R3

✓ predicted

Shara Magomedov

16-1-0

▼

Model Prediction

Michel Pereira 31%

KO 10%· Sub 7%· Dec 15%

Shara Magomedov ✓ won 69%

KO 33%· Sub 2%· Dec 34%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Shara Magomedov wins	69%	1.20	✓ predicted
Method Shara Magomedov wins by Decision	34%	2.60	✓ predicted
Finish round Goes the distance	49%	1.96	✓ predicted

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Michel Pereira wins by Sub or Decision	21%	7.25	✗ lost
Michel Pereira wins value	31%	4.60	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	47%	3.00	✗ lost
Michel Pereira wins by KO or Decision	24%	5.30	✗ lost
Michel Pereira wins by DEC	15%	8.00	✗ lost
Michel Pereira wins by Decision	15%	7.50	✗ lost
Shara Magomedov wins by Sub or Decision	36%	2.90	✓ won
Michel Pereira wins by KO or Sub	16%	6.00	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	49%	1.96	✓ won
Michel Pereira wins by SUB	7%	14.00	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	51%	1.78	✗ lost
Shara Magomedov wins by Decision	34%	2.62	✓ won
Shara Magomedov wins by DEC	34%	2.60	✓ won
Shara Magomedov wins by KO or Decision	67%	1.24	✓ won
Shara Magomedov wins	69%	1.20	✓ won
Michel Pereira wins by KO/TKO	10%	8.50	✗ lost
Shara Magomedov wins by KO/TKO	33%	2.45	✗ lost
Michel Pereira wins by finish in Round 1	8%	10.00	✗ lost
Shara Magomedov wins by finish in Round 1	16%	4.50	✗ lost
Shara Magomedov wins by finish in Round 2	12%	6.00	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	53%	1.33	✓ won
Shara Magomedov wins by KO or Sub	35%	1.82	✗ lost
Michel Pereira wins by finish in Round 2	6%	11.00	✗ lost
Shara Magomedov wins by finish in Round 3	6%	8.50	✗ lost
Shara Magomedov wins by SUB	2%	26.00	✗ lost
Michel Pereira wins by finish in Round 3	3%	13.00	✗ lost

Nazim Sadykhov

11-2-1

Winner

Matheus Camilo

KO/TKO · R1

✗ wrong

Matheus Camilo

10-3-0

▼

Model Prediction

Nazim Sadykhov 55%

KO 12%· Sub 26%· Dec 18%

Matheus Camilo ✓ won 45%

KO 14%· Sub 5%· Dec 25%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Nazim Sadykhov wins	55%	1.52	missed
Method Nazim Sadykhov wins by Submission value	26%	7.25	missed
Finish round Finish in Round 1	29%	3.30	✓ predicted

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Nazim Sadykhov wins by Submission in R1 or R2 value	21%	9.00	✗ lost
Nazim Sadykhov wins by SUB value	26%	7.25	✗ lost
Nazim Sadykhov wins by Submission in R1	13%	14.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	16%	10.00	✗ lost
Nazim Sadykhov wins by Submission in R2	8%	19.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission value	31%	5.10	✗ lost
Nazim Sadykhov wins by Submission in R2 or R3	12%	12.50	✗ lost
Matheus Camilo wins by DEC value	25%	5.90	✗ lost
Matheus Camilo wins by Decision	25%	5.50	✗ lost
Matheus Camilo wins by Sub or Decision	30%	4.30	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	10%	13.00	✗ lost
Matheus Camilo wins by KO or Decision	39%	2.90	✓ won
Matheus Camilo wins value	45%	2.54	✓ won
Nazim Sadykhov wins by Sub or Decision	43%	2.55	✗ lost
Nazim Sadykhov wins by Submission in R3	4%	26.00	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	43%	2.33	✗ lost
Matheus Camilo takedowns over 0.5	61%	1.62	—
Finish before Round 2	29%	3.35	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 1	29%	3.30	✓ won
Fight goes to Decision	43%	2.25	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 0.5	80%	1.21	—
Over 2.5 rounds	48%	2.00	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 2	71%	1.30	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	52%	1.72	✓ won
Nazim Sadykhov wins by KO or Sub	38%	2.40	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 1.5	58%	1.56	—
Fight ends by Submission in R3	5%	18.00	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	57%	1.56	✓ won
Matheus Camilo significant strikes over 19.5	64%	1.33	—
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	18%	4.60	✗ lost
Nazim Sadykhov wins	55%	1.52	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 2.5	42%	1.99	—
Matheus Camilo takedowns over 1.5	39%	2.10	—
Matheus Camilo wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	12%	6.75	✓ won
Nazim Sadykhov wins in R3+ or by Decision	29%	2.75	✗ lost
Nazim Sadykhov significant strikes over 19.5	66%	1.20	—
Matheus Camilo wins by KO or Sub	20%	4.00	✓ won
Matheus Camilo wins by KO/TKO in R1	7%	10.50	✓ won
Matheus Camilo wins by KO/TKO	14%	5.30	✓ won
Total takedowns over 3.5	30%	2.50	—
Nazim Sadykhov significant strikes over 29.5	51%	1.45	—
Total significant strikes over 49.5	52%	1.36	—
Matheus Camilo significant strikes over 29.5	42%	1.67	—
Matheus Camilo wins by Submission in R1 or R2	4%	16.00	✗ lost
Matheus Camilo wins by Submission in R1	3%	26.00	✗ lost
Nazim Sadykhov takedowns over 0.5	38%	1.80	—
Matheus Camilo significant strikes over 69.5	11%	6.00	—
Total significant strikes over 59.5	45%	1.50	—
Matheus Camilo significant strikes over 59.5	16%	4.33	—
Total significant strikes over 69.5	40%	1.67	—
Nazim Sadykhov wins by DEC	18%	3.70	✗ lost
Matheus Camilo wins by SUB	5%	12.50	✗ lost
Matheus Camilo wins by KO/TKO in R2	5%	14.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 79.5	34%	1.88	—
Matheus Camilo significant strikes over 49.5	20%	3.10	—
Nazim Sadykhov significant strikes over 39.5	36%	1.72	—
Total significant strikes over 89.5	29%	2.12	—
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	14%	4.50	✓ won
Matheus Camilo wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	7%	8.75	✗ lost
Matheus Camilo significant strikes over 79.5	7%	8.50	—
Matheus Camilo takedowns over 2.5	23%	2.63	—
Nazim Sadykhov takedowns over 1.5	17%	3.60	—
Total significant strikes over 99.5	24%	2.45	—
Total takedowns over 4.5	18%	3.30	—
Total significant strikes over 109.5	20%	2.90	—
Matheus Camilo wins by Submission in R2	2%	34.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	26%	2.12	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	9%	6.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 119.5	16%	3.45	—
Matheus Camilo significant strikes over 39.5	24%	2.25	—
Nazim Sadykhov wins by KO or Decision	30%	1.82	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	9%	6.25	✗ lost
Nazim Sadykhov significant strikes over 49.5	23%	2.20	—
Nazim Sadykhov significant strikes over 59.5	18%	2.88	—
Total significant strikes over 129.5	12%	4.10	—
Nazim Sadykhov significant strikes over 69.5	12%	3.75	—
Nazim Sadykhov wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	10%	4.30	✗ lost
Nazim Sadykhov wins by KO/TKO in R1	6%	6.75	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 139.5	8%	5.00	—
Nazim Sadykhov wins by KO/TKO	12%	3.40	✗ lost
Matheus Camilo takedowns over 3.5	12%	3.50	—
Matheus Camilo wins by KO/TKO in R3	2%	17.00	✗ lost
Nazim Sadykhov wins by KO/TKO in R2	4%	9.25	✗ lost
Matheus Camilo wins by Submission in R3	1%	41.00	✗ lost
Nazim Sadykhov wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	6%	5.90	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	4%	8.00	✗ lost
Nazim Sadykhov significant strikes over 79.5	6%	5.00	—
Total significant strikes over 149.5	4%	6.00	—
Nazim Sadykhov wins by KO/TKO in R3	2%	12.50	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 5.5	4%	4.30	—
Total knockdowns over 0.5	2%	1.39	—

Asu Almabayev

23-3-0

Winner

Asu Almabayev

SUB · R3

✓ predicted

Charles Johnson

19-8-0

▼

Model Prediction

Asu Almabayev ✓ won 72%

KO 3%· Sub 27%· Dec 42%

Charles Johnson 28%

KO 9%· Sub 3%· Dec 17%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Asu Almabayev wins	72%	1.33	✓ predicted
Method Asu Almabayev wins by Decision	42%	2.02	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	59%	2.65	missed

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Asu Almabayev wins by SUB	27%	4.80	✓ won
Asu Almabayev wins by Submission in R1 or R2	22%	5.80	✗ lost
Asu Almabayev wins by Submission in R2 or R3	14%	8.75	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission	29%	4.10	✓ won
Asu Almabayev wins by Submission in R2	9%	13.00	✗ lost
Asu Almabayev significant strikes over 49.5	34%	3.40	—
Asu Almabayev significant strikes over 59.5	22%	5.00	—
Finish before Round 3	34%	3.31	✗ lost
Asu Almabayev wins by Submission in R1	13%	8.75	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	10%	11.00	✗ lost
Asu Almabayev significant strikes over 69.5	15%	7.50	—
Fight ends before decision	41%	2.65	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission in R1	14%	7.75	✗ lost
Asu Almabayev significant strikes over 39.5	47%	2.30	—
Asu Almabayev significant strikes over 29.5	64%	1.67	—
Asu Almabayev wins by KO or Sub	30%	3.50	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 59.5	73%	1.44	—
Under 2.5 rounds	36%	2.87	—
Asu Almabayev significant strikes over 19.5	79%	1.30	—
Total significant strikes over 49.5	78%	1.29	—
Total significant strikes over 69.5	60%	1.65	—
Asu Almabayev wins by Sub or Decision	68%	1.46	✓ won
Asu Almabayev wins by Submission in R3	5%	21.00	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	14%	7.00	✗ lost
Charles Johnson wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	7%	14.00	✗ lost
Asu Almabayev wins	72%	1.33	✓ won
Charles Johnson wins	28%	3.34	✗ lost
Charles Johnson wins by KO/TKO	9%	11.00	✗ lost
Charles Johnson wins by KO/TKO in R1	4%	23.00	✗ lost
Charles Johnson wins by KO or Decision	26%	3.60	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 2	81%	1.14	✓ won
Charles Johnson significant strikes over 19.5	78%	1.17	—
Total significant strikes over 79.5	47%	1.93	—
Asu Almabayev wins in R3+ or by Decision	48%	1.84	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission in R3	5%	17.00	✓ won
Total takedowns over 0.5	83%	1.06	—
Total significant strikes over 139.5	11%	7.75	—
Over 2.5 rounds	64%	1.36	—
Asu Almabayev wins by finish in Round 1	14%	6.00	✗ lost
Charles Johnson wins by KO or Sub	11%	7.75	✗ lost
Charles Johnson wins by Decision	17%	5.00	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	59%	1.45	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 149.5	8%	10.50	—
Fight goes to Decision	59%	1.44	✗ lost
Charles Johnson wins by DEC	17%	4.90	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 129.5	14%	5.90	—
Asu Almabayev wins by DEC	42%	2.02	✗ lost
Charles Johnson wins by Sub or Decision	20%	4.20	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 1.5	67%	1.22	—
Asu Almabayev wins by KO or Decision	45%	1.77	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 119.5	17%	4.60	—
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	7%	10.50	✓ won
Asu Almabayev takedowns over 0.5	69%	1.11	—
Asu Almabayev takedowns over 1.5	58%	1.33	—
Charles Johnson wins by KO/TKO in R2	3%	26.00	✗ lost
Charles Johnson wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	4%	17.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 89.5	32%	2.30	—
Total significant strikes over 109.5	20%	3.60	—
Fight ends by KO/TKO	12%	6.00	✗ lost
Asu Almabayev takedowns over 2.5	46%	1.57	—
Total takedowns over 2.5	50%	1.41	—
Charles Johnson significant strikes over 29.5	51%	1.40	—
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	6%	12.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 99.5	23%	2.85	—
Charles Johnson significant strikes over 39.5	36%	1.80	—
Charles Johnson wins by finish in Round 1	5%	12.00	✗ lost
Asu Almabayev takedowns over 3.5	34%	1.83	—
Charles Johnson takedowns over 0.5	22%	2.88	—
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	4%	15.00	✗ lost
Asu Almabayev wins by finish in Round 1	14%	4.30	✗ lost
Charles Johnson significant strikes over 59.5	17%	3.60	—
Total takedowns over 3.5	36%	1.67	—
Charles Johnson significant strikes over 49.5	23%	2.50	—
Charles Johnson wins by Submission in R1	1%	46.00	✗ lost
Charles Johnson wins by Submission in R1 or R2	2%	26.00	✗ lost
Charles Johnson wins by SUB	3%	21.00	✗ lost
Charles Johnson significant strikes over 69.5	11%	5.00	—
Charles Johnson wins by finish in Round 1	5%	10.00	✗ lost
Charles Johnson wins by KO/TKO in R3	2%	34.00	✗ lost
Asu Almabayev takedowns over 4.5	21%	2.40	—
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	2%	23.00	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 4.5	23%	2.05	—
Charles Johnson wins by Submission in R2	1%	51.00	✗ lost
Charles Johnson takedowns over 1.5	9%	5.00	—
Asu Almabayev wins by KO/TKO	4%	11.00	✗ lost
Asu Almabayev wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	3%	13.00	✗ lost
Charles Johnson significant strikes over 79.5	4%	8.00	—
Asu Almabayev wins by KO/TKO in R2	1%	29.00	✗ lost
Asu Almabayev wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	2%	19.00	✗ lost
Asu Almabayev wins by KO/TKO in R1	2%	19.00	✗ lost
Asu Almabayev wins by KO/TKO in R3	1%	51.00	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 5.5	13%	2.50	—
Total knockdowns over 0.5	2%	2.95	—
Total takedowns over 6.5	2%	3.15	—

Ikram Aliskerov

17-2-0

Winner

Ikram Aliskerov

Decision (U) · R3

✓ predicted

Brunno Ferreira

15-3-0

▼

Model Prediction

Ikram Aliskerov ✓ won 70%

KO 39%· Sub 7%· Dec 24%

Brunno Ferreira 30%

KO 14%· Sub 6%· Dec 10%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Ikram Aliskerov wins	70%	1.37	✓ predicted
Method Ikram Aliskerov wins by KO/TKO	38%	2.35	missed
Finish round Finish in Round 1	28%	2.25	missed

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Brunno Ferreira takedowns over 0.5	28%	9.00	—
Ikram Aliskerov wins by DEC	24%	5.80	✓ won
Fight goes to decision	34%	3.96	✓ won
Ikram Aliskerov wins by Decision	24%	5.50	✓ won
Fight goes to Decision	34%	3.75	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	22%	5.40	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 3	45%	2.56	✓ won
Ikram Aliskerov wins by KO/TKO in R2	16%	7.00	✗ lost
Ikram Aliskerov wins by KO or Decision	63%	1.73	✓ won
Ikram Aliskerov wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	22%	4.80	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	60%	1.72	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	27%	3.80	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 0.5	67%	1.50	—
Brunno Ferreira wins by DEC	10%	10.00	✗ lost
Brunno Ferreira wins in R3+ or by Decision	13%	7.25	✗ lost
Ikram Aliskerov wins	70%	1.37	✓ won
Brunno Ferreira wins by KO or Decision	24%	4.00	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 1.5	47%	2.00	—
Brunno Ferreira wins	30%	3.14	✗ lost
Ikram Aliskerov wins by Sub or Decision	32%	2.95	✓ won
Brunno Ferreira wins by KO/TKO in R2	6%	16.00	✗ lost
Brunno Ferreira wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	8%	11.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	52%	1.74	✗ lost
Ikram Aliskerov wins by KO/TKO	38%	2.35	✗ lost
Ikram Aliskerov wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	32%	2.80	✗ lost
Brunno Ferreira wins by Sub or Decision	16%	5.60	✗ lost
Ikram Aliskerov significant strikes over 19.5	66%	1.33	—
Ikram Aliskerov significant strikes over 29.5	53%	1.62	—
Finish before Round 3	55%	1.47	✗ lost
Brunno Ferreira wins by KO/TKO	14%	5.80	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	66%	1.22	✗ lost
Brunno Ferreira wins by KO or Sub	20%	4.00	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	40%	2.00	✓ won
Ikram Aliskerov wins by KO or Sub	46%	1.72	✗ lost
Brunno Ferreira wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	12%	6.75	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	8%	9.00	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 2.5	28%	2.60	—
Brunno Ferreira wins by Submission in R2	2%	29.00	✗ lost
Ikram Aliskerov wins by KO/TKO in R3	6%	11.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	22%	3.20	✗ lost
Ikram Aliskerov takedowns over 0.5	45%	1.57	—
Ikram Aliskerov significant strikes over 39.5	35%	2.00	—
Ikram Aliskerov wins by KO/TKO in R1	16%	4.30	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	11%	6.50	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 3.5	19%	3.50	—
Brunno Ferreira wins by KO/TKO in R3	2%	29.00	✗ lost
Ikram Aliskerov takedowns over 1.5	31%	2.10	—
Fight ends by finish in Round 1	28%	2.25	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 49.5	39%	1.57	—
Fight ends by Submission in R2	6%	11.00	✗ lost
Brunno Ferreira wins by SUB	6%	10.00	✗ lost
Brunno Ferreira wins by KO/TKO in R1	6%	10.00	✗ lost
Brunno Ferreira significant strikes over 19.5	39%	1.53	—
Total takedowns over 4.5	11%	5.30	—
Brunno Ferreira wins by Submission in R1 or R2	5%	11.50	✗ lost
Ikram Aliskerov significant strikes over 49.5	22%	2.40	—
Total significant strikes over 59.5	30%	1.75	—
Fight ends by Submission	13%	3.80	✗ lost
Ikram Aliskerov significant strikes over 59.5	17%	3.00	—
Brunno Ferreira wins by Submission in R3	1%	51.00	✗ lost
Ikram Aliskerov takedowns over 2.5	18%	2.75	—
Brunno Ferreira significant strikes over 39.5	18%	2.70	—
Total significant strikes over 69.5	24%	1.96	—
Brunno Ferreira significant strikes over 29.5	23%	2.00	—
Ikram Aliskerov wins by Submission in R2	3%	15.00	✗ lost
Brunno Ferreira significant strikes over 49.5	12%	3.75	—
Total significant strikes over 79.5	20%	2.18	—
Ikram Aliskerov wins by Submission in R2 or R3	4%	10.50	✗ lost
Brunno Ferreira wins by Submission in R1	3%	17.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 89.5	17%	2.45	—
Ikram Aliskerov wins by SUB	7%	5.60	✗ lost
Ikram Aliskerov wins by Submission in R1 or R2	6%	6.50	✗ lost
Ikram Aliskerov significant strikes over 69.5	11%	3.75	—
Total significant strikes over 99.5	14%	2.80	—
Fight ends by Submission in R3	2%	18.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	6%	6.75	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 109.5	11%	3.20	—
Brunno Ferreira significant strikes over 59.5	7%	5.00	—
Ikram Aliskerov wins by Submission in R3	1%	26.00	✗ lost
Ikram Aliskerov wins by Submission in R1	3%	9.75	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 119.5	7%	3.75	—
Total takedowns over 5.5	4%	7.50	—
Ikram Aliskerov significant strikes over 79.5	5%	5.00	—
Ikram Aliskerov takedowns over 3.5	6%	3.75	—
Total significant strikes over 129.5	4%	4.40	—
Brunno Ferreira significant strikes over 69.5	1%	7.00	—
Total significant strikes over 139.5	1%	5.30	—
Total knockdowns over 0.5	2%	1.26	—

Abus Magomedov

28-7-1

Winner

Abus Magomedov

SUB · R1

✓ predicted

Michal Oleksiejczuk

22-9-0

▼

Model Prediction

Abus Magomedov ✓ won 53%

KO 14%· Sub 12%· Dec 27%

Michal Oleksiejczuk 47%

KO 33%· Sub 0%· Dec 15%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Abus Magomedov wins	53%	2.01	✓ predicted
Method Abus Magomedov wins by Decision value	27%	8.00	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	41%	3.45	missed

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Abus Magomedov wins by DEC value	27%	8.00	✗ lost
Abus Magomedov wins by Decision value	27%	7.50	✗ lost
Abus Magomedov wins by KO or Decision value	41%	3.90	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	41%	3.45	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	41%	3.35	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	55%	2.10	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	27%	4.00	✗ lost
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	48%	2.21	✗ lost
Abus Magomedov wins	53%	2.01	✓ won
Abus Magomedov wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	13%	8.00	✗ lost
Michal Oleksiejczuk wins by KO/TKO in R1	19%	5.30	✗ lost
Abus Magomedov wins by KO/TKO in R1	8%	12.00	✗ lost
Abus Magomedov wins by Sub or Decision	38%	2.60	✓ won
Abus Magomedov significant strikes over 29.5	49%	2.00	—
Total significant strikes over 69.5	48%	2.05	—
Total significant strikes over 59.5	55%	1.80	—
Michal Oleksiejczuk wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	29%	3.40	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 49.5	61%	1.59	—
Total significant strikes over 79.5	41%	2.35	—
Abus Magomedov takedowns over 0.5	61%	1.57	—
Fight reaches Round 2	66%	1.45	✗ lost
Michal Oleksiejczuk wins by finish in Round 1	19%	5.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	47%	2.00	✗ lost
Abus Magomedov significant strikes over 19.5	64%	1.45	—
Abus Magomedov wins by KO/TKO	14%	6.50	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 89.5	34%	2.75	—
Michal Oleksiejczuk significant strikes over 19.5	66%	1.40	—
Michal Oleksiejczuk wins by KO or Decision	47%	1.89	✗ lost
Finish before Round 2	34%	2.61	✓ won
Total takedowns over 0.5	67%	1.33	—
Michal Oleksiejczuk wins by KO/TKO	33%	2.70	✗ lost
Michal Oleksiejczuk significant strikes over 29.5	51%	1.72	—
Michal Oleksiejczuk wins	47%	1.83	✗ lost
Michal Oleksiejczuk wins in R3+ or by Decision	23%	3.80	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	14%	6.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 99.5	26%	3.20	—
Abus Magomedov wins by KO/TKO in R2	4%	19.00	✗ lost
Michal Oleksiejczuk wins by DEC	15%	5.60	✗ lost
Abus Magomedov takedowns over 1.5	41%	2.00	—
Michal Oleksiejczuk wins by KO or Sub	33%	2.50	✗ lost
Michal Oleksiejczuk significant strikes over 39.5	35%	2.25	—
Michal Oleksiejczuk wins by KO/TKO in R2	10%	8.00	✗ lost
Abus Magomedov significant strikes over 39.5	29%	2.70	—
Total takedowns over 1.5	45%	1.74	—
Abus Magomedov significant strikes over 49.5	20%	3.75	—
Total significant strikes over 109.5	20%	3.80	—
Fight ends before decision	59%	1.28	✓ won
Over 2.5 rounds	45%	1.66	✗ lost
Abus Magomedov significant strikes over 59.5	15%	5.00	—
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	18%	4.00	✗ lost
Michal Oleksiejczuk wins by Sub or Decision	15%	4.80	✗ lost
Abus Magomedov wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	6%	12.00	✗ lost
Abus Magomedov takedowns over 2.5	27%	2.63	—
Michal Oleksiejczuk wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	14%	5.00	✗ lost
Abus Magomedov significant strikes over 69.5	9%	7.50	—
Michal Oleksiejczuk significant strikes over 49.5	23%	2.88	—
Total significant strikes over 119.5	14%	4.60	—
Abus Magomedov wins by KO or Sub	26%	2.45	✓ won
Michal Oleksiejczuk significant strikes over 59.5	16%	4.00	—
Michal Oleksiejczuk takedowns over 0.5	20%	3.10	—
Total takedowns over 2.5	28%	2.20	—
Michal Oleksiejczuk wins by finish in Round 1	19%	3.15	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 3.5	19%	2.90	—
Michal Oleksiejczuk takedowns over 1.5	9%	6.00	—
Total takedowns over 4.5	12%	4.20	—
Abus Magomedov wins by Submission in R1 or R2	10%	4.50	✓ won
Abus Magomedov wins by finish in Round 1	15%	3.05	✓ won
Abus Magomedov wins by Submission in R1	7%	6.75	✓ won
Total significant strikes over 129.5	8%	5.60	—
Fight ends by Submission in R1	7%	6.25	✓ won
Michal Oleksiejczuk significant strikes over 69.5	9%	5.00	—
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	5%	8.25	✗ lost
Abus Magomedov wins by SUB	12%	3.60	✓ won
Abus Magomedov wins by KO/TKO in R3	2%	26.00	✗ lost
Michal Oleksiejczuk wins by KO/TKO in R3	4%	11.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	12%	3.30	✓ won
Abus Magomedov wins by Submission in R2	4%	10.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	6%	5.60	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	4%	9.50	✗ lost
Abus Magomedov significant strikes over 79.5	3%	11.00	—
Abus Magomedov wins by Submission in R2 or R3	5%	6.75	✗ lost
Total takedowns over 5.5	5%	5.70	—
Abus Magomedov takedowns over 3.5	5%	3.60	—
Abus Magomedov wins by Submission in R3	1%	14.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	1%	13.00	✗ lost
Total significant strikes over 139.5	2%	6.75	—
Michal Oleksiejczuk significant strikes over 79.5	2%	7.00	—
Total knockdowns over 0.5	2%	1.36	—

Eric Nolan

8-4-0

Winner

Farman Hasanov

Decision (U) · R3

✓ predicted

Farman Hasanov

0-0-0

▼

Model Prediction

Eric Nolan 42%

KO 8%· Sub 14%· Dec 19%

Farman Hasanov ✓ won 58%

KO 23%· Sub 5%· Dec 31%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Farman Hasanov wins	58%	1.58	✓ predicted
Method Farman Hasanov wins by Decision value	31%	4.60	✓ predicted
Finish round Goes the distance	50%	2.66	✓ predicted

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Eric Nolan wins by Submission in R1	9%	41.00	✗ lost
Eric Nolan wins by Submission in R1 or R2 value	13%	26.00	✗ lost
Eric Nolan wins by SUB value	14%	21.00	✗ lost
Eric Nolan wins by Submission in R2	4%	51.00	✗ lost
Eric Nolan wins by Sub or Decision value	34%	4.80	✗ lost
Farman Hasanov wins by DEC value	31%	4.60	✓ won
Farman Hasanov wins by Decision value	31%	4.50	✓ won
Fight goes to decision	50%	2.66	✓ won
Eric Nolan wins by Submission in R3	1%	91.00	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	50%	2.55	✓ won
Over 2.5 rounds	53%	2.25	✓ won
Farman Hasanov wins by KO or Decision	54%	2.15	✓ won
Eric Nolan wins by DEC	19%	5.75	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 3	55%	1.93	✓ won
Eric Nolan wins by Decision	19%	5.50	✗ lost
Farman Hasanov wins by KO/TKO in R1	14%	7.25	✗ lost
Eric Nolan wins	42%	2.40	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	12%	8.25	✗ lost
Farman Hasanov wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	20%	4.60	✗ lost
Finish before Round 2	31%	3.00	✗ lost
Farman Hasanov wins	58%	1.58	✓ won
Eric Nolan wins by finish in Round 1	14%	6.50	✗ lost
Farman Hasanov wins by Sub or Decision	36%	2.50	✓ won
Farman Hasanov wins by KO/TKO	23%	3.75	✗ lost
Eric Nolan wins by KO or Sub	22%	3.70	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	19%	4.30	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	20%	4.10	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	47%	1.57	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	50%	1.44	✗ lost
Eric Nolan wins by KO or Decision	28%	2.55	✗ lost
Eric Nolan wins by finish in Round 1	14%	4.60	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	31%	2.05	✗ lost
Farman Hasanov wins by KO or Sub	28%	2.25	✗ lost
Farman Hasanov wins by KO/TKO in R2	6%	10.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	5%	12.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	13%	4.30	✗ lost
Farman Hasanov wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	8%	6.75	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	8%	6.00	✗ lost
Farman Hasanov wins by finish in Round 1	17%	2.80	✗ lost
Eric Nolan wins by KO/TKO in R1	5%	8.25	✗ lost
Eric Nolan wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	7%	5.25	✗ lost
Farman Hasanov wins by KO/TKO in R3	2%	15.00	✗ lost
Eric Nolan wins by KO/TKO	8%	4.25	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	2%	17.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	5%	6.25	✗ lost
Farman Hasanov wins by Submission in R1	3%	9.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	3%	8.75	✗ lost
Farman Hasanov wins by Submission in R1 or R2	4%	6.25	✗ lost
Eric Nolan wins by KO/TKO in R2	2%	11.50	✗ lost
Farman Hasanov wins by SUB	5%	5.10	✗ lost
Eric Nolan wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	3%	7.50	✗ lost
Farman Hasanov wins by Submission in R2	1%	14.00	✗ lost
Farman Hasanov wins by Submission in R2 or R3	2%	9.00	✗ lost
Eric Nolan wins by KO/TKO in R3	1%	16.00	✗ lost

Julius Walker

7-2-0

Winner

Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev

KO/TKO · R1

✓ predicted

Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev

2-0-0

▼

Model Prediction

Julius Walker 19%

KO 5%· Sub 3%· Dec 12%

Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev ✓ won 81%

KO 20%· Sub 37%· Dec 24%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev wins	81%	1.13	✓ predicted
Method Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev wins by Submission	37%	2.40	missed
Finish round Finish in Round 1	33%	1.79	✓ predicted

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Julius Walker wins by DEC	12%	16.00	✗ lost
Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev wins in R3+ or by Decision value	37%	4.75	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	35%	4.65	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	35%	4.60	✗ lost
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	46%	3.45	✗ lost
Julius Walker wins by Sub or Decision	14%	10.50	✗ lost
Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev wins by DEC	24%	6.25	✗ lost
Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev wins by Submission in R3	6%	23.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	7%	21.00	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 2	67%	1.93	✗ lost
Julius Walker wins by Decision	12%	11.00	✗ lost
Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev wins by Submission in R2 or R3	18%	6.75	✗ lost
Julius Walker wins	19%	6.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	11%	10.50	✗ lost
Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev wins by Sub or Decision	61%	1.81	✗ lost
Julius Walker wins by KO or Decision	17%	6.50	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	41%	2.50	✗ lost
Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev wins by Submission in R2	12%	8.25	✗ lost
Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev wins by KO/TKO in R3	3%	29.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	13%	7.50	✗ lost
Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev wins	81%	1.13	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission	40%	2.25	✗ lost
Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev wins by SUB	37%	2.40	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	59%	1.50	✓ won
Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev wins by KO or Decision	44%	2.02	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	21%	4.00	✗ lost
Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev wins by Submission in R1 or R2	31%	2.60	✗ lost
Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev wins by KO or Sub	57%	1.33	✓ won
Fight ends before decision	65%	1.17	✓ won
Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	10%	7.75	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	4%	18.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	20%	3.40	✗ lost
Finish before Round 3	54%	1.28	✓ won
Julius Walker wins by Submission in R1 or R2	2%	29.00	✗ lost
Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev wins by Submission in R1	19%	3.50	✗ lost
Julius Walker wins by Submission in R1	1%	46.00	✗ lost
Julius Walker wins by SUB	3%	23.00	✗ lost
Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev wins by KO/TKO in R2	6%	9.50	✗ lost
Julius Walker wins by Submission in R2	1%	67.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 1	33%	1.79	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	8%	7.25	✗ lost
Julius Walker wins by KO or Sub	8%	7.25	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	25%	2.25	✓ won
Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev wins by KO/TKO	20%	2.80	✓ won
Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	17%	3.00	✓ won
Julius Walker wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	4%	11.50	✗ lost
Julius Walker wins by KO/TKO	5%	9.50	✗ lost
Julius Walker wins by KO/TKO in R1	3%	18.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	13%	3.50	✓ won
Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev wins by KO/TKO in R1	10%	4.10	✓ won
Julius Walker wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	2%	16.00	✗ lost
Julius Walker wins by KO/TKO in R2	2%	23.00	✗ lost
Julius Walker wins by KO/TKO in R3	1%	34.00	✗ lost

Nursulton Ruziboev

36-9-2

Winner

Nursulton Ruziboev

SUB · R1

✓ predicted

Andrey Pulyaev

10-3-0

▼

Model Prediction

Nursulton Ruziboev ✓ won 63%

KO 17%· Sub 11%· Dec 35%

Andrey Pulyaev 37%

KO 10%· Sub 6%· Dec 21%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Nursulton Ruziboev wins	63%	1.44	✓ predicted
Method Nursulton Ruziboev wins by Decision	35%	3.50	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	56%	2.24	missed

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Andrey Pulyaev wins by Submission in R1 or R2	5%	29.00	✗ lost
Andrey Pulyaev wins by Submission in R1	3%	46.00	✗ lost
Andrey Pulyaev wins by SUB	6%	23.00	✗ lost
Andrey Pulyaev wins by Submission in R2	2%	71.00	✗ lost
Andrey Pulyaev wins by Sub or Decision	27%	4.90	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	9%	14.00	✓ won
Fight goes to decision	56%	2.24	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	56%	2.20	✗ lost
Nursulton Ruziboev wins by DEC	35%	3.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	17%	7.00	✓ won
Nursulton Ruziboev wins by Sub or Decision	46%	2.60	✓ won
Andrey Pulyaev wins by DEC	21%	5.75	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	59%	2.00	✗ lost
Andrey Pulyaev wins by Decision	21%	5.50	✗ lost
Nursulton Ruziboev wins by Decision	35%	3.25	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 3	63%	1.72	✗ lost
Nursulton Ruziboev wins by Submission in R1 or R2	10%	11.00	✓ won
Andrey Pulyaev wins	37%	2.81	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	6%	18.00	✗ lost
Nursulton Ruziboev wins by SUB	11%	8.75	✓ won
Andrey Pulyaev wins by Submission in R3	1%	101.00	✗ lost
Nursulton Ruziboev wins by Submission in R1	6%	17.00	✓ won
Nursulton Ruziboev wins	63%	1.44	✓ won
Andrey Pulyaev wins by KO or Decision	31%	2.95	✗ lost
Nursulton Ruziboev wins by Submission in R2	4%	23.00	✗ lost
Nursulton Ruziboev wins by KO or Decision	52%	1.64	✗ lost
Nursulton Ruziboev wins by Submission in R2 or R3	6%	14.00	✗ lost
Finish before Round 2	23%	3.45	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 1	23%	3.40	✓ won
Andrey Pulyaev wins by KO or Sub	16%	4.75	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	3%	26.00	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	44%	1.60	✓ won
Under 2.5 rounds	41%	1.72	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	14%	4.60	✗ lost
Nursulton Ruziboev wins by KO or Sub	28%	2.30	✓ won
Nursulton Ruziboev wins by Submission in R3	2%	34.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	14%	4.20	✗ lost
Andrey Pulyaev wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	8%	6.75	✗ lost
Andrey Pulyaev wins by KO/TKO	10%	5.50	✗ lost
Andrey Pulyaev wins by KO/TKO in R1	5%	10.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	27%	1.98	✗ lost
Nursulton Ruziboev wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	14%	3.70	✗ lost
Nursulton Ruziboev wins by KO/TKO in R1	9%	6.00	✗ lost
Nursulton Ruziboev wins by KO/TKO	17%	2.90	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	9%	5.60	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	7%	6.50	✗ lost
Andrey Pulyaev wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	5%	9.50	✗ lost
Andrey Pulyaev wins by KO/TKO in R2	3%	14.00	✗ lost
Nursulton Ruziboev wins by KO/TKO in R2	5%	7.75	✗ lost
Nursulton Ruziboev wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	8%	5.10	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	4%	8.00	✗ lost
Andrey Pulyaev wins by KO/TKO in R3	2%	21.00	✗ lost
Nursulton Ruziboev wins by KO/TKO in R3	3%	11.00	✗ lost

Javier Reyes

23-5-0

Winner

Kaan Ofli

SUB · R1

✗ wrong

Kaan Ofli

14-4-1

▼

Model Prediction

Javier Reyes 66%

KO 21%· Sub 11%· Dec 34%

Kaan Ofli ✓ won 34%

KO 8%· Sub 11%· Dec 16%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Javier Reyes wins	66%	1.42	missed
Method Javier Reyes wins by Decision value	34%	4.10	missed
Finish round Goes the distance	49%	2.27	missed

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Javier Reyes wins by DEC value	34%	4.10	✗ lost
Javier Reyes wins by Decision value	34%	4.00	✗ lost
Kaan Ofli wins by Submission in R1	7%	18.00	✓ won
Kaan Ofli wins by Submission in R1 or R2	9%	12.00	✓ won
Fight goes to decision	49%	2.27	✗ lost
Javier Reyes wins by Sub or Decision	45%	2.45	✗ lost
Kaan Ofli wins by KO or Sub	18%	5.90	✓ won
Fight goes to Decision	49%	2.20	✗ lost
Kaan Ofli wins by finish in Round 1	11%	9.50	✓ won
Kaan Ofli wins by KO/TKO in R1	5%	23.00	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	53%	2.00	✗ lost
Kaan Ofli wins by SUB	11%	9.50	✓ won
Finish before Round 2	31%	3.22	✓ won
Javier Reyes wins by KO or Decision	55%	1.82	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 3	56%	1.75	✗ lost
Kaan Ofli wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	7%	15.00	✗ lost
Kaan Ofli wins	34%	2.87	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission in R1	13%	7.25	✓ won
Javier Reyes wins	66%	1.42	✗ lost
Kaan Ofli wins by KO/TKO	8%	12.00	✗ lost
Kaan Ofli wins by Sub or Decision	26%	3.40	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	18%	5.00	✗ lost
Kaan Ofli wins by KO or Decision	23%	3.60	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	22%	3.75	✓ won
Kaan Ofli wins by finish in Round 1	11%	7.25	✓ won
Under 2.5 rounds	47%	1.72	✓ won
Fight ends before decision	51%	1.59	✓ won
Kaan Ofli wins in R3+ or by Decision	19%	4.10	✗ lost
Javier Reyes wins by KO/TKO in R1	13%	5.90	✗ lost
Kaan Ofli wins by DEC	16%	4.80	✗ lost
Javier Reyes wins by finish in Round 1	20%	3.75	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	29%	2.55	✗ lost
Javier Reyes wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	18%	3.80	✗ lost
Kaan Ofli wins by Submission in R2	3%	26.00	✗ lost
Javier Reyes wins by Submission in R1	7%	10.00	✗ lost
Kaan Ofli wins by Submission in R2 or R3	4%	16.00	✗ lost
Javier Reyes wins by KO or Sub	32%	2.07	✗ lost
Javier Reyes wins by KO/TKO	21%	3.10	✗ lost
Javier Reyes wins by Submission in R1 or R2	10%	6.75	✗ lost
Kaan Ofli wins by KO/TKO in R2	2%	34.00	✗ lost
Javier Reyes wins by SUB	11%	5.60	✗ lost
Kaan Ofli wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	3%	21.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	12%	4.90	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	5%	10.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	7%	7.75	✗ lost
Kaan Ofli wins by Submission in R3	2%	34.00	✗ lost
Javier Reyes wins by finish in Round 1	20%	2.55	✗ lost
Kaan Ofli wins by KO/TKO in R3	1%	46.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	7%	6.75	✗ lost
Javier Reyes wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	8%	5.90	✗ lost
Javier Reyes wins by KO/TKO in R2	5%	9.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	3%	14.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	4%	10.50	✗ lost
Javier Reyes wins by Submission in R2	3%	15.00	✗ lost
Javier Reyes wins by KO/TKO in R3	3%	13.00	✗ lost
Javier Reyes wins by Submission in R3	2%	21.00	✗ lost

Theodor Berggren

8-4-0

Winner

Daniil Donchenko

KO/TKO · R2

✓ predicted

Daniil Donchenko

14-2-0

▼

Model Prediction post-hoc

Theodor Berggren 23%

KO 7%· Sub 16%· Dec 0%

Daniil Donchenko ✓ won 77%

KO 41%· Sub 3%· Dec 33%

Jean Matsumoto

17-2-0

Winner

Jean Matsumoto

Decision (U) · R3

✓ predicted

Bekzat Almakhan

12-3-0

▼

Model Prediction

Jean Matsumoto ✓ won 65%

KO 9%· Sub 13%· Dec 43%

Bekzat Almakhan 35%

KO 9%· Sub 3%· Dec 24%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Jean Matsumoto wins	65%	1.60	✓ predicted
Method Jean Matsumoto wins by Decision	43%	2.30	✓ predicted
Finish round Goes the distance	67%	1.56	✓ predicted

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Bekzat Almakhan wins by DEC	24%	4.50	✗ lost
Bekzat Almakhan wins by Sub or Decision	26%	4.00	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	67%	1.56	✓ won
Jean Matsumoto wins	65%	1.60	✓ won
Fight goes to Decision	67%	1.55	✓ won
Jean Matsumoto wins by KO or Decision	52%	1.98	✓ won
Jean Matsumoto wins by Decision	43%	2.37	✓ won
Over 2.5 rounds	70%	1.44	✓ won
Jean Matsumoto wins by Sub or Decision	56%	1.79	✓ won
Jean Matsumoto wins by DEC	43%	2.30	✓ won
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	73%	1.36	✓ won
Fight reaches Round 2	84%	1.17	✓ won
Jean Matsumoto wins by KO or Sub	22%	4.50	✗ lost
Bekzat Almakhan wins in R3+ or by Decision	26%	3.75	✗ lost
Jean Matsumoto wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	7%	13.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	16%	5.75	✗ lost
Jean Matsumoto wins by KO/TKO	9%	10.50	✗ lost
Jean Matsumoto wins by Submission in R1 or R2	11%	8.25	✗ lost
Jean Matsumoto wins by SUB	13%	6.75	✗ lost
Jean Matsumoto wins by KO/TKO in R1	4%	21.00	✗ lost
Jean Matsumoto wins by KO/TKO in R2	3%	29.00	✗ lost
Bekzat Almakhan wins	35%	2.36	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R1	8%	11.00	✗ lost
Jean Matsumoto wins by finish in Round 1	10%	8.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R2	5%	15.00	✗ lost
Finish before Round 3	27%	2.97	✗ lost
Jean Matsumoto wins by Submission in R2	4%	18.00	✗ lost
Jean Matsumoto wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	4%	18.00	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	30%	2.62	✗ lost
Bekzat Almakhan wins by KO or Decision	33%	2.40	✗ lost
Jean Matsumoto wins by Submission in R1	6%	12.50	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	33%	2.33	✗ lost
Bekzat Almakhan wins by Submission in R1 or R2	2%	34.00	✗ lost
Jean Matsumoto wins by finish in Round 2	7%	10.00	✗ lost
Bekzat Almakhan wins by Submission in R2	1%	81.00	✗ lost
Bekzat Almakhan wins by SUB	3%	26.00	✗ lost
Bekzat Almakhan wins by Submission in R1	1%	51.00	✗ lost
Bekzat Almakhan wins by Submission in R2 or R3	1%	46.00	✗ lost
Jean Matsumoto wins by KO/TKO in R3	2%	41.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	17%	3.50	✗ lost
Jean Matsumoto wins by Submission in R3	2%	26.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission in R3	3%	21.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2	6%	9.75	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1	8%	7.00	✗ lost
Jean Matsumoto wins by finish in Round 1	10%	5.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	6%	9.25	✗ lost
Bekzat Almakhan wins by KO or Sub	12%	4.30	✗ lost
Bekzat Almakhan wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2	7%	6.00	✗ lost
Bekzat Almakhan wins by KO/TKO	9%	4.90	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3	3%	13.00	✗ lost
Bekzat Almakhan wins by KO/TKO in R1	4%	9.50	✗ lost
Bekzat Almakhan wins by KO/TKO in R2	3%	13.00	✗ lost
Bekzat Almakhan wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3	5%	8.50	✗ lost
Bekzat Almakhan wins by finish in Round 1	6%	5.40	✗ lost
Bekzat Almakhan wins by KO/TKO in R3	2%	18.00	✗ lost

Tahir Abdullayev

20-3-0

Winner

Tahir Abdullayev

KO/TKO · R3

Jefferson Nascimento

13-1-0

▼

Model Prediction post-hoc dead even — no pick

Tahir Abdullayev ✓ won 50%

KO 17%· Sub 17%· Dec 16%

Jefferson Nascimento 50%

KO 14%· Sub 13%· Dec 24%