Updated 2026-06-18 01:38 AEST
12
Bouts
0
Events
New here? How to read these predictions
Win probability
Our model's estimate that a fighter wins — e.g. 72% means we'd expect them to win roughly 7 of 10 times.
Confidence interval (CI)
The range the true probability likely falls in. Wider = less certain. A pick'em fight has a wide band; a clear favourite a narrow one.
Edge
How much higher our probability is than the bookmaker's implied odds. Positive edge = we think it's underpriced.
EV (expected value)
Average return if you placed the bet many times. +15% EV means about 15c profit per $1 staked, on average.
Risk tiers
Conservative leans to safe favourites, Balanced blends, Aggressive chases bigger-odds longshots. Pick what suits you.
Edge badges
Strong / Solid / Slight edge rank how much value the model sees — and how big a stake it suggests. They're not a promise the bet wins.

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Rafael Fiziev
Fiziev
Main Event
77%
model leans Torres
2026-06-27
Manuel Torres
Torres
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres
2026
27
JUN
⚡ Next Event

UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres

National Gymnastics Arena, Baku, Azerbaijan
12
Bouts
Rafael Fiziev
Rafael Fiziev
Kyrgyzstan 13-5-0 Muay Thai Switch Stance 1 loss
23% | 77%
Lightweight 5 rds
⏱ Sun 28 Jun · 2:00 AM AEST
Manuel Torres
Manuel Torres
Mexico 17-3-0 MMA Switch Stance 2-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Manuel Torres
76.8 %
050100
90% CI · 47 – 98 · σ 0.075 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Manuel Torres lands 2.0 more sig strikes per minute
  • Manuel Torres rides a 2-fight longer win streak
  • Manuel Torres finishes 50% more of their wins
  • Manuel Torres out-volumes opponents at 6.7 sig/min vs Rafael Fiziev's 4.7
  • Manuel Torres KOs 83% of opponents — Rafael Fiziev has been KO'd in 25% of losses
Method Breakdown
Fiziev Torres
KO/TKO 11.7
42.4
Submission 2.8
15.1
Decision 8.8
19.3
Finish Distribution · By Round
29
R1
21
R2
11
R3
7
R4
3
R5
28
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Fiziev Torres
Str/min 4.7
6.7
Sig Acc 53%
60%
Str Def 50%
51%
TD/min 0.06
0.13
Finish 50%
100%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
  • Sig strikes
    38
    45
    8–102 10–114
  • Sig strikes (combined) 80 19–220
  • Takedowns
    0.1
    0.2
    0.0–1.7 0.0–2.3
  • Takedowns (combined) 0.4 0.0–4.4
  • Knockdowns (combined) 0.0 0.0–0.0
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Torres

    Manuel Torres lands 2.0 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Torres

    Manuel Torres rides a 2-fight longer win streak

  • 03 Finish rate favours Torres

    Manuel Torres finishes 50% more of their wins

  • 04 Strikes absorbed favours Torres

    Manuel Torres eats 0.5 fewer strikes per minute

  • 05 KO rate favours Torres

    Manuel Torres finishes by KO 33% more often

  • 06 Submission rate favours Torres

    Manuel Torres taps opponents 17% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Michel Pereira
Michel Pereira
Brazil 32-14-0 Striker Orthodox 1 win
36% | 64%
Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 28 Jun · 2:00 AM AEST
Shara Magomedov
Shara Magomedov
Russia 16-1-0 Orthodox 1 win
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Shara Magomedov
64.3 %
050100
90% CI · 34 – 94 · σ 0.057 · High
Why this pick
  • Shara Magomedov eats 0.8 fewer strikes per minute
  • Shara Magomedov lands 1.4 more sig strikes per minute
  • Michel Pereira finishes 17% more of their wins
  • Shara Magomedov out-volumes opponents at 5.9 sig/min vs Michel Pereira's 4.5
  • Shara Magomedov has never been finished in 6 fights
Method Breakdown
Pereira Magomedov
KO/TKO 11.2
30.8
Submission 7.8
1.6
Decision 16.7
32.0
Finish Distribution · By Round
24
R1
18
R2
9
R3
0
R4
0
R5
49
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Pereira Magomedov
Str/min 4.5
5.9
Sig Acc 51%
63%
Str Def 51%
44%
TD/min 0.07
0.00
Finish 50%
33%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
  • Sig strikes
    51
    66
    8–83 11–93
  • Sig strikes (combined) 113 22–180
  • Takedowns
    0.2
    0.0
    0.0–1.9 0.0–1.8
  • Takedowns (combined) 0.3 0.0–3.9
  • Knockdowns (combined) 0.0 0.0–0.0
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Magomedov

    Shara Magomedov eats 0.8 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Magomedov

    Shara Magomedov lands 1.4 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Finish rate favours Pereira

    Michel Pereira finishes 17% more of their wins

  • 04 Submission rate favours Pereira

    Michel Pereira taps opponents 21% more often

  • 05 Striking accuracy favours Magomedov

    Shara Magomedov is 11% more accurate on the feet

  • 06 Takedown volume favours Pereira

    Michel Pereira hits 0.07 more takedowns per minute

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Nazim Sadykhov
Nazim Sadykhov
Russia 11-2-1 Freestyle Southpaw 1 loss
42% | 58%
Lightweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 28 Jun · 2:00 AM AEST
Matheus Camilo
Matheus Camilo
Brazil 10-3-0 MMA Orthodox 1 win
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Matheus Camilo
57.9 %
050100
90% CI · 28 – 88 · σ 0.080 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Matheus Camilo eats 2.9 fewer strikes per minute
  • Nazim Sadykhov lands 2.7 more sig strikes per minute
  • Nazim Sadykhov finishes by KO 67% more often
  • Nazim Sadykhov out-volumes opponents at 4.9 sig/min vs Matheus Camilo's 2.2
  • Nazim Sadykhov has never been finished in 6 fights
Method Breakdown
Sadykhov Camilo
KO/TKO 9.2
18.7
Submission 19.4
6.8
Decision 13.5
32.5
Finish Distribution · By Round
28
R1
17
R2
9
R3
0
R4
0
R5
46
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Sadykhov Camilo
Str/min 4.9
2.2
Sig Acc 48%
43%
Str Def 47%
64%
TD/min 0.09
0.30
Finish 83%
50%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
  • Sig strikes
    30
    26
    7–73 8–73
  • Sig strikes (combined) 51 13–135
  • Takedowns
    0.1
    0.9
    0.0–1.9 0.0–3.6
  • Takedowns (combined) 1.9 0.0–5.1
  • Knockdowns (combined) 0.0 0.0–0.0
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Camilo

    Matheus Camilo eats 2.9 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Sadykhov

    Nazim Sadykhov lands 2.7 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 KO rate favours Sadykhov

    Nazim Sadykhov finishes by KO 67% more often

  • 04 Win streak favours Camilo

    Matheus Camilo rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 05 Finish rate favours Sadykhov

    Nazim Sadykhov finishes 33% more of their wins

  • 06 Takedown volume favours Camilo

    Matheus Camilo hits 0.21 more takedowns per minute

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Asu Almabayev
Asu Almabayev
Kazakhstan 23-3-0 Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 2-fight win streak
77% | 23%
Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 28 Jun · 2:00 AM AEST
Charles Johnson
Charles Johnson
United States 19-8-0 Switch Stance 1 win
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Asu Almabayev
76.7 %
050100
90% CI · 47 – 98 · σ 0.098 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Asu Almabayev eats 2.0 fewer strikes per minute
  • Charles Johnson lands 2.5 more sig strikes per minute
  • Asu Almabayev rides a 1-fight longer win streak
  • Charles Johnson out-volumes opponents at 4.8 sig/min vs Asu Almabayev's 2.3
  • Charles Johnson has never been finished in 14 fights
Method Breakdown
Almabayev Johnson
KO/TKO 3.7
7.0
Submission 28.5
2.1
Decision 44.5
14.1
Finish Distribution · By Round
19
R1
14
R2
7
R3
0
R4
1
R5
59
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Almabayev Johnson
Str/min 2.3
4.8
Sig Acc 51%
50%
Str Def 54%
56%
TD/min 0.30
0.03
Finish 43%
29%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
  • Sig strikes
    37
    30
    8–75 8–71
  • Sig strikes (combined) 78 20–143
  • Takedowns
    2.2
    0.0
    0.0–5.1 0.0–1.4
  • Takedowns (combined) 2.5 0.0–5.7
  • Knockdowns (combined) 0.0 0.0–0.0
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Almabayev

    Asu Almabayev eats 2.0 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Johnson

    Charles Johnson lands 2.5 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Win streak favours Almabayev

    Asu Almabayev rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 04 Takedown volume favours Almabayev

    Asu Almabayev hits 0.26 more takedowns per minute

  • 05 Submission rate favours Almabayev

    Asu Almabayev taps opponents 29% more often

  • 06 Finish rate favours Almabayev

    Asu Almabayev finishes 14% more of their wins

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Ikram Aliskerov
Ikram Aliskerov
Russia 17-2-0 Sambo Southpaw 2-fight win streak
73% | 27%
Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 28 Jun · 2:00 AM AEST
Brunno Ferreira
Brunno Ferreira
Brazil 15-3-0 Grappler Orthodox 1 loss
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Ikram Aliskerov
73.2 %
050100
90% CI · 43 – 98 · σ 0.056 · High
Why this pick
  • Ikram Aliskerov lands 3.6 more sig strikes per minute
  • Brunno Ferreira eats 1.4 fewer strikes per minute
  • Ikram Aliskerov rides a 2-fight longer win streak
  • Ikram Aliskerov out-volumes opponents at 7.2 sig/min vs Brunno Ferreira's 3.6
  • Ikram Aliskerov KOs 80% of opponents — Brunno Ferreira has been KO'd in 22% of losses
Method Breakdown
Aliskerov Ferreira
KO/TKO 40.1
12.5
Submission 7.7
5.4
Decision 25.4
8.9
Finish Distribution · By Round
28
R1
27
R2
11
R3
0
R4
0
R5
34
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Aliskerov Ferreira
Str/min 7.2
3.6
Sig Acc 65%
50%
Str Def 41%
52%
TD/min 0.19
0.09
Finish 80%
89%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
  • Sig strikes
    31
    14
    7–71 5–53
  • Sig strikes (combined) 37 12–111
  • Takedowns
    0.2
    0.1
    0.0–3.1 0.0–1.4
  • Takedowns (combined) 1.3 0.0–4.7
  • Knockdowns (combined) 0.0 0.0–0.0
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Aliskerov

    Ikram Aliskerov lands 3.6 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Ferreira

    Brunno Ferreira eats 1.4 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 Win streak favours Aliskerov

    Ikram Aliskerov rides a 2-fight longer win streak

  • 04 Takedown defence favours Aliskerov

    Ikram Aliskerov stuffs 41% more incoming takedowns

  • 05 KO rate favours Aliskerov

    Ikram Aliskerov finishes by KO 24% more often

  • 06 Submission rate favours Ferreira

    Brunno Ferreira taps opponents 22% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Abus Magomedov
Abus Magomedov
Russia 28-7-1 MMA Orthodox 1 loss
50% | 50%
Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 28 Jun · 2:00 AM AEST
Michal Oleksiejczuk
Michal Oleksiejczuk
Poland 22-9-0 MMA Southpaw 3-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Michal Oleksiejczuk
50.4 %
050100
90% CI · 20 – 80 · σ 0.079 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Michal Oleksiejczuk lands 2.8 more sig strikes per minute
  • Michal Oleksiejczuk rides a 3-fight longer win streak
  • Abus Magomedov eats 1.1 fewer strikes per minute
  • Michal Oleksiejczuk rides a 3-fight win streak (Abus Magomedov: 0)
  • Michal Oleksiejczuk out-volumes opponents at 5.8 sig/min vs Abus Magomedov's 3.1
Method Breakdown
Magomedov Oleksiejczuk
KO/TKO 13.5
34.6
Submission 11.1
0.1
Decision 25.0
15.7
Finish Distribution · By Round
35
R1
18
R2
7
R3
0
R4
0
R5
41
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Magomedov Oleksiejczuk
Str/min 3.1
5.8
Sig Acc 49%
53%
Str Def 56%
60%
TD/min 0.17
0.07
Finish 57%
72%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
  • Sig strikes
    29
    30
    6–68 8–68
  • Sig strikes (combined) 67 17–126
  • Takedowns
    0.9
    0.0
    0.0–3.3 0.0–1.4
  • Takedowns (combined) 1.2 0.0–4.8
  • Knockdowns (combined) 0.0 0.0–0.0
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Oleksiejczuk

    Michal Oleksiejczuk lands 2.8 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Oleksiejczuk

    Michal Oleksiejczuk rides a 3-fight longer win streak

  • 03 Strikes absorbed favours Magomedov

    Abus Magomedov eats 1.1 fewer strikes per minute

  • 04 Takedown defence favours Magomedov

    Abus Magomedov stuffs 47% more incoming takedowns

  • 05 Finish rate favours Oleksiejczuk

    Michal Oleksiejczuk finishes 15% more of their wins

  • 06 KO rate favours Oleksiejczuk

    Michal Oleksiejczuk finishes by KO 16% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Eric Nolan
Eric Nolan
United States 8-4-0 Orthodox 1 loss
46% | 54%
Welterweight 3 rds
⏱ Sat 27 Jun · 11:00 PM AEST
FH
Farman Hasanov
Azerbaijan 0-0-0 nan
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Farman Hasanov
54.4 %
050100
90% CI · 24 – 84 · σ 0.075 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Farman Hasanov comes in on a 1-fight cleaner skid
  • Model uncertainty: ±7pp on the win probability
  • Model favours Eric Nolan at 46% / Farman Hasanov at 54%
Method Breakdown
Nolan Hasanov
KO/TKO 8.9
21.3
Submission 15.4
4.4
Decision 21.3
28.8
Finish Distribution · By Round
31
R1
13
R2
5
R3
0
R4
0
R5
50
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Nolan Hasanov
Str/min 3.1
0.0
Sig Acc 39%
0%
Str Def 42%
0%
TD/min 0.00
0.00
Finish 100%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
  • Sig strikes
    24
    30
    4–70 6–86
  • Sig strikes (combined) 57 15–127
  • Takedowns
    0.2
    0.1
    0.0–2.4 0.0–3.2
  • Takedowns (combined) 1.6 0.0–4.6
  • Knockdowns (combined) 0.0 0.0–0.0
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Loss streak favours Hasanov

    Farman Hasanov comes in on a 1-fight cleaner skid

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Julius Walker
Julius Walker
United States 7-2-0 MMA Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
16% | 84%
Light Heavyweight 3 rds
AY
Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev
2-0-0 Orthodox 2-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev
83.6 %
050100
90% CI · 54 – 98 · σ 0.070 · High
Why this pick
  • Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev eats 3.6 fewer strikes per minute
  • Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev hits 0.69 more takedowns per minute
  • Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev taps opponents 100% more often
  • Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev has never been finished in 2 fights
  • Julius Walker out-volumes opponents at 4.3 sig/min vs Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev's 3.8
Method Breakdown
Walker Yakhyaev
KO/TKO 4.2
20.6
Submission 2.4
38.3
Decision 9.9
24.7
Finish Distribution · By Round
33
R1
21
R2
11
R3
0
R4
0
R5
35
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Walker Yakhyaev
Str/min 4.3
3.8
Sig Acc 48%
52%
Str Def 41%
56%
TD/min 0.18
0.88
Finish 50%
100%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
  • Sig strikes
    28
    36
    5–68 7–73
  • Sig strikes (combined) 58 15–137
  • Takedowns
    0.1
    1.4
    0.0–2.3 0.0–4.4
  • Takedowns (combined) 2.0 0.0–4.8
  • Knockdowns (combined) 0.0 0.0–0.0
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Yakhyaev

    Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev eats 3.6 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Takedown volume favours Yakhyaev

    Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev hits 0.69 more takedowns per minute

  • 03 Submission rate favours Yakhyaev

    Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev taps opponents 100% more often

  • 04 Win streak favours Yakhyaev

    Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev rides a 2-fight longer win streak

  • 05 Finish rate favours Yakhyaev

    Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev finishes 50% more of their wins

  • 06 KO rate favours Walker

    Julius Walker finishes by KO 50% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Nursulton Ruziboev
Nursulton Ruziboev
Uzbekistan 36-9-2 Kickboxer Orthodox 2-fight win streak
59% | 41%
Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sat 27 Jun · 11:00 PM AEST
Andrey Pulyaev
Andrey Pulyaev
Russia 10-3-0 MMA Southpaw 1 loss
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Nursulton Ruziboev
59.5 %
050100
90% CI · 29 – 89 · σ 0.084 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Nursulton Ruziboev rides a 2-fight longer win streak
  • Nursulton Ruziboev finishes 27% more of their wins
  • Nursulton Ruziboev eats 0.3 fewer strikes per minute
  • Nursulton Ruziboev has never been finished in 5 fights
  • Andrey Pulyaev has never been finished in 3 fights
Method Breakdown
Ruziboev Pulyaev
KO/TKO 15.9
11.1
Submission 10.8
6.6
Decision 32.8
22.8
Finish Distribution · By Round
23
R1
14
R2
7
R3
0
R4
0
R5
56
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Ruziboev Pulyaev
Str/min 2.6
2.7
Sig Acc 47%
48%
Str Def 49%
57%
TD/min 0.05
0.00
Finish 60%
33%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
  • Sig strikes
    24
    34
    7–64 7–68
  • Sig strikes (combined) 62 18–121
  • Takedowns
    0.1
    0.1
    0.0–1.9 0.0–1.9
  • Takedowns (combined) 0.9 0.0–4.0
  • Knockdowns (combined) 0.0 0.0–0.0
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Ruziboev

    Nursulton Ruziboev rides a 2-fight longer win streak

  • 02 Finish rate favours Ruziboev

    Nursulton Ruziboev finishes 27% more of their wins

  • 03 Strikes absorbed favours Ruziboev

    Nursulton Ruziboev eats 0.3 fewer strikes per minute

  • 04 KO rate favours Ruziboev

    Nursulton Ruziboev finishes by KO 27% more often

  • 05 Takedown defence favours Pulyaev

    Andrey Pulyaev stuffs 22% more incoming takedowns

  • 06 Striking volume favours Pulyaev

    Andrey Pulyaev lands 0.1 more sig strikes per minute

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Andreas Gustafsson
Andreas Gustafsson
Sweden 12-3-0 Orthodox 1 loss
28% | 72%
Welterweight 3 rds
⏱ Sat 27 Jun · 11:00 PM AEST
Daniil Donchenko
Daniil Donchenko
Ukraine 14-2-0 Kickboxer Orthodox 2-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Daniil Donchenko
72.3 %
050100
90% CI · 42 – 98 · σ 0.063 · High
Why this pick
  • Daniil Donchenko eats 1.3 fewer strikes per minute
  • Daniil Donchenko rides a 2-fight longer win streak
  • Andreas Gustafsson hits 0.45 more takedowns per minute
  • Daniil Donchenko has never been finished in 2 fights
  • Daniil Donchenko KOs 50% of opponents — Andreas Gustafsson has been KO'd in 50% of losses
Method Breakdown
Gustafsson Donchenko
KO/TKO 5.0
54.6
Submission 4.0
1.4
Decision 18.7
16.2
Finish Distribution · By Round
38
R1
17
R2
9
R3
0
R4
0
R5
35
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Gustafsson Donchenko
Str/min 6.5
7.1
Sig Acc 70%
60%
Str Def 47%
73%
TD/min 0.50
0.05
Finish 50%
50%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
  • Sig strikes
    31
    37
    5–72 9–77
  • Sig strikes (combined) 75 16–159
  • Takedowns
    1.2
    0.1
    0.0–4.7 0.0–1.7
  • Takedowns (combined) 2.0 0.0–6.2
  • Knockdowns (combined) 0.0 0.0–0.0
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Donchenko

    Daniil Donchenko eats 1.3 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Donchenko

    Daniil Donchenko rides a 2-fight longer win streak

  • 03 Takedown volume favours Gustafsson

    Andreas Gustafsson hits 0.45 more takedowns per minute

  • 04 Striking volume favours Donchenko

    Daniil Donchenko lands 0.7 more sig strikes per minute

  • 05 Striking defence favours Donchenko

    Daniil Donchenko avoids 26% more incoming strikes

  • 06 Striking accuracy favours Gustafsson

    Andreas Gustafsson is 10% more accurate on the feet

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Jean Matsumoto
Jean Matsumoto
Brazil 17-2-0 Muay Thai Orthodox 1 loss
71% | 29%
Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Sat 27 Jun · 11:00 PM AEST
Bekzat Almakhan
Bekzat Almakhan
Kazakhstan 12-3-0 Karate Orthodox 1 loss
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Jean Matsumoto
70.6 %
050100
90% CI · 41 – 98 · σ 0.065 · High
Why this pick
  • Jean Matsumoto lands 3.5 more sig strikes per minute
  • Bekzat Almakhan eats 1.4 fewer strikes per minute
  • Jean Matsumoto hits 0.24 more takedowns per minute
  • Jean Matsumoto out-volumes opponents at 5.1 sig/min vs Bekzat Almakhan's 1.6
  • Jean Matsumoto has never been finished in 5 fights
Method Breakdown
Matsumoto Almakhan
KO/TKO 9.3
7.4
Submission 14.3
2.2
Decision 47.0
19.7
Finish Distribution · By Round
16
R1
11
R2
6
R3
0
R4
0
R5
67
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Matsumoto Almakhan
Str/min 5.1
1.6
Sig Acc 41%
34%
Str Def 47%
37%
TD/min 0.24
0.00
Finish 20%
33%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
  • Sig strikes
    51
    29
    8–87 9–67
  • Sig strikes (combined) 80 19–145
  • Takedowns
    1.2
    0.1
    0.0–4.3 0.0–1.6
  • Takedowns (combined) 2.3 0.0–5.7
  • Knockdowns (combined) 0.0 0.0–0.0
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Matsumoto

    Jean Matsumoto lands 3.5 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Almakhan

    Bekzat Almakhan eats 1.4 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 Takedown volume favours Matsumoto

    Jean Matsumoto hits 0.24 more takedowns per minute

  • 04 KO rate favours Almakhan

    Bekzat Almakhan finishes by KO 33% more often

  • 05 Submission rate favours Matsumoto

    Jean Matsumoto taps opponents 20% more often

  • 06 Finish rate favours Almakhan

    Bekzat Almakhan finishes 13% more of their wins

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Javier Reyes
Javier Reyes
Colombia 23-5-0 MMA nan 1 win
73% | 27%
Featherweight 3 rds
⏱ Sat 27 Jun · 11:00 PM AEST
Kaan Ofli
Kaan Ofli
Australia 14-4-1 Freestyle Orthodox 2-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Javier Reyes
72.9 %
050100
90% CI · 43 – 98 · σ 0.091 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Javier Reyes lands 4.8 more sig strikes per minute
  • Javier Reyes finishes by KO 52% more often
  • Kaan Ofli rides a 1-fight longer win streak
  • Javier Reyes out-volumes opponents at 7.0 sig/min vs Kaan Ofli's 2.2
  • Javier Reyes KOs 76% of opponents — Kaan Ofli has been KO'd in 25% of losses
Method Breakdown
Reyes Ofli
KO/TKO 23.4
6.1
Submission 12.2
8.7
Decision 37.2
12.4
Finish Distribution · By Round
31
R1
12
R2
7
R3
0
R4
0
R5
50
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Reyes Ofli
Str/min 7.0
2.2
Sig Acc 47%
43%
Str Def 37%
54%
TD/min 0.15
0.02
Finish 76%
47%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
  • Sig strikes
    33
    23
    6–68 5–57
  • Sig strikes (combined) 54 16–125
  • Takedowns
    1.1
    0.3
    0.0–3.1 0.0–1.8
  • Takedowns (combined) 2.0 0.0–4.8
  • Knockdowns (combined) 0.0 0.0–0.0
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Reyes

    Javier Reyes lands 4.8 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 KO rate favours Reyes

    Javier Reyes finishes by KO 52% more often

  • 03 Win streak favours Ofli

    Kaan Ofli rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 04 Finish rate favours Reyes

    Javier Reyes finishes 29% more of their wins

  • 05 Submission rate favours Ofli

    Kaan Ofli taps opponents 24% more often

  • 06 Takedown volume favours Reyes

    Javier Reyes hits 0.13 more takedowns per minute

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.