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Track record
Every pick, graded
What the model said before each fight, what happened, and the locked bets it would have placed. Losses stay on the page.
77 of 111
confident picks landed — when the model gives a fighter 70%+ it has been right 69% of the time
20–30
betting record with the same amount on every recommended bet (-2.3 units — early days, small sample)
Bankroll curve
+$852
2026-06-15
peak $990 · trough $-1008
2026-10-31
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres 9/12 · 75%
2026-06-27
Model Prediction
Rafael Fiziev
✓ won
37%
KO 18%·
Sub 4%·
Dec 14%
Manuel Torres
63%
KO 35%·
Sub 12%·
Dec 16%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Manuel Torres wins value | 63% | 1.91 | missed |
| Method Manuel Torres wins by KO/TKO | 35% | 2.30 | missed |
| Finish round Finish in Round 1 | 29% | — | missed |
Model Prediction
Michel Pereira
31%
KO 10%·
Sub 7%·
Dec 15%
Shara Magomedov
✓ won
69%
KO 33%·
Sub 2%·
Dec 34%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Shara Magomedov wins | 69% | 1.20 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Shara Magomedov wins by Decision | 34% | 2.60 | ✓ predicted |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 49% | 1.96 | ✓ predicted |
Model Prediction
Nazim Sadykhov
55%
KO 12%·
Sub 26%·
Dec 18%
Matheus Camilo
✓ won
45%
KO 14%·
Sub 5%·
Dec 25%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Nazim Sadykhov wins | 55% | 1.52 | missed |
| Method Nazim Sadykhov wins by Submission value | 26% | 7.25 | missed |
| Finish round Finish in Round 1 | 29% | 3.30 | ✓ predicted |
Model Prediction
Asu Almabayev
✓ won
72%
KO 3%·
Sub 27%·
Dec 42%
Charles Johnson
28%
KO 9%·
Sub 3%·
Dec 17%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Asu Almabayev wins | 72% | 1.33 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Asu Almabayev wins by Decision | 42% | 2.02 | missed |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 59% | 2.65 | missed |
Model Prediction
Ikram Aliskerov
✓ won
70%
KO 39%·
Sub 7%·
Dec 24%
Brunno Ferreira
30%
KO 14%·
Sub 6%·
Dec 10%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Ikram Aliskerov wins | 70% | 1.37 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Ikram Aliskerov wins by KO/TKO | 38% | 2.35 | missed |
| Finish round Finish in Round 1 | 28% | 2.25 | missed |
Model Prediction
Abus Magomedov
✓ won
53%
KO 14%·
Sub 12%·
Dec 27%
Michal Oleksiejczuk
47%
KO 33%·
Sub 0%·
Dec 15%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Abus Magomedov wins | 53% | 2.01 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Abus Magomedov wins by Decision value | 27% | 8.00 | missed |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 41% | 3.45 | missed |
Model Prediction
Eric Nolan
42%
KO 8%·
Sub 14%·
Dec 19%
Farman Hasanov
✓ won
58%
KO 23%·
Sub 5%·
Dec 31%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Farman Hasanov wins | 58% | 1.58 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Farman Hasanov wins by Decision value | 31% | 4.60 | ✓ predicted |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 50% | 2.66 | ✓ predicted |
Model Prediction
Julius Walker
19%
KO 5%·
Sub 3%·
Dec 12%
Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev
✓ won
81%
KO 20%·
Sub 37%·
Dec 24%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev wins | 81% | 1.13 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev wins by Submission | 37% | 2.40 | missed |
| Finish round Finish in Round 1 | 33% | 1.79 | ✓ predicted |
Model Prediction
Nursulton Ruziboev
✓ won
63%
KO 17%·
Sub 11%·
Dec 35%
Andrey Pulyaev
37%
KO 10%·
Sub 6%·
Dec 21%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Nursulton Ruziboev wins | 63% | 1.44 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Nursulton Ruziboev wins by Decision | 35% | 3.50 | missed |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 56% | 2.24 | missed |
Model Prediction
Javier Reyes
66%
KO 21%·
Sub 11%·
Dec 34%
Kaan Ofli
✓ won
34%
KO 8%·
Sub 11%·
Dec 16%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Javier Reyes wins | 66% | 1.42 | missed |
| Method Javier Reyes wins by Decision value | 34% | 4.10 | missed |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 49% | 2.27 | missed |
Model Prediction post-hoc
Theodor Berggren
23%
KO 7%·
Sub 16%·
Dec 0%
Daniil Donchenko
✓ won
77%
KO 41%·
Sub 3%·
Dec 33%
Model Prediction
Jean Matsumoto
✓ won
65%
KO 9%·
Sub 13%·
Dec 43%
Bekzat Almakhan
35%
KO 9%·
Sub 3%·
Dec 24%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Jean Matsumoto wins | 65% | 1.60 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Jean Matsumoto wins by Decision | 43% | 2.30 | ✓ predicted |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 67% | 1.56 | ✓ predicted |
Model Prediction post-hoc dead even — no pick
Tahir Abdullayev
✓ won
50%
KO 17%·
Sub 17%·
Dec 16%
Jefferson Nascimento
50%
KO 14%·
Sub 13%·
Dec 24%