UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates — Results & Recap

Track record

Every pick, graded

What the model said before each fight, what happened, and the locked bets it would have placed. Losses stay on the page.

221 / 330

Correct Picks

67.0% accuracy · 32 events

12 / 22

Parlay Legs

12 parlays · −$576

+$852

Running P&L · locked picks

$1000 / event · Conservative · Kelly-weighted · closing: +$609

77 of 111 confident picks landed — when the model gives a fighter 70%+ it has been right 69% of the time

20–30 betting record with the same amount on every recommended bet (-2.3 units — early days, small sample)

Bankroll curve $1000 per event · Conservative tier · locked picks +$852

2026-06-15 peak $990 · trough $-1008 2026-10-31

From 17 Oct 2026 each card's picks are locked 24 hours before its first bout, as the site showed them then. Earlier cards were locked when their first prop market opened, days to weeks before the card.

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan 2026-10-31 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-10-30 21:02 UTC (24h before) · +$268

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Luana Santos wins	Yana Santos vs Luana Santos	1.35	$80	✓ won +$28
Theodor Berggren wins by Sub or Decision	Theodor Berggren vs Rodrigo Sezinando	4.90	$66	✗ lost −$66
Jacobe Smith wins by KO or Decision	Randy Brown vs Jacobe Smith	1.86	$63	✓ won +$54
Zach Reese wins by DEC	Mickey Gall vs Zach Reese	8.50	$34	✓ won +$252

UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev 2026-10-24 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-10-23 14:02 UTC (24h before) · +$303

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Daniel Santos wins by KO or Decision	Daniel Santos vs Bolaji Oki	2.45	$80	✓ won +$116
Jacob Malkoun wins	Abubakar Vagaev vs Jacob Malkoun	2.32	$80	✗ lost −$80
Ramazan Temirov wins by KO or Decision	Ramazan Temirov vs Lone'er Kavanagh	1.99	$70	✗ lost −$70
Colby Thicknesse wins by Sub or Decision	Colby Thicknesse vs Asaf Chopurov	6.25	$64	✓ won +$337

UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott 2026-10-17 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-10-16 21:24 UTC (24h before) · −$80

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Nate Landwehr wins by KO or Decision	Nate Landwehr vs Mandel Nallo	4.70	$80	✗ lost −$80

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan 2026-10-10 · $1000 Conservative · even split · locked 2026-09-19 15:16 UTC · +$1220

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Brendan Allen wins	Brendan Allen vs Christian Leroy Duncan	2.22	$1000	✓ won +$1220

UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 2026-09-19 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-09-09 12:20 UTC · +$11

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Dooho Choi wins	Patricio Pitbull vs Dooho Choi	1.39	$72	✗ lost −$72
Edmen Shahbazyan wins	Edmen Shahbazyan vs Brunno Ferreira	1.59	$63	✓ won +$37
Joshua Van wins	Alexandre Pantoja vs Joshua Van	1.85	$54	✓ won +$46

Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado 2026-09-12 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-09-09 12:20 UTC · −$95

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Jose Delgado wins	Jean Silva vs Jose Delgado	4.25	—	⋯ pending
Rafa Garcia wins	Rafa Garcia vs Rongzhu	2.53	$74	✗ lost −$74
Marwan Rahiki wins	Tommy McMillen vs Marwan Rahiki	2.37	$21	✗ lost −$21

UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse 2026-09-05 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-09-02 09:47 UTC · −$52

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Mario Pinto wins	Ryan Spann vs Mario Pinto	1.35	$80	✓ won +$28
Dan Hooker wins	Dan Hooker vs Salahdine Parnasse	5.75	$80	✗ lost −$80

UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song 2026-08-29 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-08-25 11:10 UTC · −$4

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Julia Polastri wins	Xiong Jingnan vs Julia Polastri	1.45	—	⋯ pending
Nilson Rojas wins	Bilal Hasan vs Nilson Rojas	5.50	$80	✗ lost −$80
Denise Gomes wins	Yan Xiaonan vs Denise Gomes	2.32	$57	✓ won +$76

UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues 2026-08-22 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-08-19 09:05 UTC · −$111

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Terrance Chatman wins	Anthony Wint vs Terrance Chatman	8.00	$80	✗ lost −$80
Ryan Kuse wins	Marcio Barbosa vs Ryan Kuse	7.00	$31	✗ lost −$31

UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry 2026-08-15 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-07-29 12:37 UTC · −$80

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Gillian Robertson wins	Mackenzie Dern vs Gillian Robertson	2.72	$80	✗ lost −$80

UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld 2026-08-08 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-08-04 11:58 UTC · −$75

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Louie Sutherland wins	Henrique Da Silva Lopes vs Louie Sutherland	1.63	—	⋯ pending
Guilherme Pat wins	Steven Asplund vs Guilherme Pat	3.02	$49	✗ lost −$49
Jessie Rosas wins	Miles Johns vs Jessie Rosas	2.33	—	⋯ pending
Amanda Lemos wins	Amanda Lemos vs Alexia Thainara	3.02	$27	✗ lost −$27

UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez 2026-08-01 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-07-28 16:52 UTC · −$56

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Mateusz Rebecki wins	Kyle Prepolec vs Mateusz Rebecki	1.18	$80	✓ won +$14
Oban Elliott wins	Oban Elliott vs Michael Oliveira	3.57	$80	✗ lost −$80
Bogdan Grad wins	Dennis Buzukja vs Bogdan Grad	1.52	$62	✓ won +$32
Fight goes to Decision	Daniel Rodriguez vs Uros Medic	7.25	$22	✗ lost −$22

UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov 2026-07-25 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-07-21 13:32 UTC · −$102

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Nurullo Aliev wins	Mike Davis vs Nurullo Aliev	1.54	$80	✓ won +$43
Tyrell Fortune wins	Rizvan Kuniev vs Tyrell Fortune	3.34	$80	✗ lost −$80
Damian Rzepecki wins	Magomed Zaynukov vs Damian Rzepecki	3.73	$43	✗ lost −$43
Dustin Jacoby wins	Dustin Jacoby vs Muhammad Said	1.59	$23	✗ lost −$23

UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman 2026-07-18 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-07-14 09:24 UTC · +$38

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Chase Hooper wins	Chase Hooper vs Mitch Ramirez	1.27	$80	✓ won +$22
Christian Leroy Duncan wins	Jared Cannonier vs Christian Leroy Duncan	1.32	$80	✓ won +$26
Dricus Du Plessis wins by SUB	Kamaru Usman vs Dricus Du Plessis	9.25	$55	✗ lost −$55
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani wins	Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs Seokhyeon Ko	2.66	$28	✓ won +$46

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 2026-07-11 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly · locked 2026-06-07 13:59 UTC · −$200

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Elisha Ellison wins	Gable Steveson vs Elisha Ellison	10.00	$138	✗ lost −$138
Benoit Saint Denis wins	Paddy Pimblett vs Benoit Saint Denis	1.53	$62	✗ lost −$62

UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres 2026-06-27 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly · locked 2026-06-24 16:05 UTC · −$216

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Manuel Torres wins	Rafael Fiziev vs Manuel Torres	1.96	$115	✗ lost −$115
Eric Nolan wins by Sub or Decision	Eric Nolan vs Farman Hasanov	5.30	$70	✗ lost −$70
Matheus Camilo wins	Nazim Sadykhov vs Matheus Camilo	2.99	$48	✓ won +$95
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	Julius Walker vs Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev	3.92	$44	✗ lost −$44
Fight reaches Round 2	Julius Walker vs Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev	2.17	$44	✗ lost −$44
Michel Pereira wins	Michel Pereira vs Shara Magomedov	3.82	$37	✗ lost −$37

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi 2 2026-06-20 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly · locked 2026-06-16 17:28 UTC · +$109

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Luana Santos wins	Karol Rosa vs Luana Santos	1.97	$157	✓ won +$152
Kyoji Horiguchi wins by KO/TKO	Kyoji Horiguchi vs Manel Kape	11.50	$43	✗ lost −$43

UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje 2026-06-15 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly · locked 2026-06-07 13:59 UTC · −$26

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Josh Hokit wins by KO or Decision	Derrick Lewis vs Josh Hokit	1.78	$73	✓ won +$57
Ilia Topuria wins by DEC	Justin Gaethje vs Ilia Topuria	13.00	$57	✗ lost −$57
Steve Garcia wins	Steve Garcia vs Diego Lopes	2.48	$52	✗ lost −$52
Bo Nickal wins by KO or Decision	Kyle Daukaus vs Bo Nickal	1.71	$38	✓ won +$27

12 / 22

Legs landed

54.5% of picks

3 / 12

Parlays won

every leg has to land

−$576

Profit

$100 on each

Only 12 parlays settled so far — far too few to judge the profit either way. On 91 past cards, parlays picked this way landed 65% of the time.

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan 2026-10-31 · +$138

2-leg @ 2.38 Fight reaches Round 3 @ 1.28Jacobe Smith wins by KO or Decision @ 1.86 ✓ WON +$138

UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev 2026-10-24 · −$100

2-leg @ 4.38 Ends in Round 3+ / Decision @ 2.20Ramazan Temirov wins by KO or Decision @ 1.99 ✗ LOST −$100

UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott 2026-10-17 · −$100

2-leg @ 2.80 Melissa Croden wins @ 1.31Ends in Round 3+ / Decision @ 2.14 ✗ LOST −$100

UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 2026-09-19 · −$100

2-leg @ 2.21 Dooho Choi wins @ 1.39Edmen Shahbazyan wins @ 1.59 ✗ LOST −$100

Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado 2026-09-12 · −$100

2-leg @ 3.35 Ends in Round 3+ / Decision @ 2.22Edgar Chairez wins @ 1.51 ✗ LOST −$100

UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse 2026-09-05 · +$107

2-leg @ 2.07 Mario Pinto wins @ 1.35Felipe Lima wins @ 1.53 ✓ WON +$107

UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song 2026-08-29 · −$100

2-leg @ 1.81 Julia Polastri wins @ 1.45Ends in Round 3+ / Decision @ 1.25 ✗ LOST −$100

UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues 2026-08-22 · −$100

2-leg @ 2.31 Fight reaches Round 2 @ 1.30Gauge Young wins @ 1.78 ✗ LOST −$100

UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez 2026-08-01 · +$79

2-leg @ 1.79 Mateusz Rebecki wins @ 1.18Bogdan Grad wins @ 1.52 ✓ WON +$79

UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov 2026-07-25 · −$100

2-leg @ 2.45 Dustin Jacoby wins @ 1.59Nurullo Aliev wins @ 1.54 ✗ LOST −$100

UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman 2026-07-18 · −$100

2-leg @ 2.24 Christian Leroy Duncan wins @ 1.32Alvin Hines wins @ 1.70 ✗ LOST −$100

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 2026-07-11 · −$100

2-leg @ 1.99 Damian Pinas wins @ 1.46Fight reaches Round 2 @ 1.36 ✗ LOST −$100

UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates 11/13 · 85%

2026-05-02

Carlos Prates

24-7-0

Winner

Carlos Prates

KO/TKO · R3

✓ predicted

Jack Della Maddalena

18-4-0

Model Prediction

Carlos Prates ✓ won 51%

KO 26%· Sub 4%· Dec 21%

Jack Della Maddalena 49%

KO 24%· Sub 5%· Dec 21%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Carlos Prates wins	51%	1.86	✓ predicted
Method Carlos Prates wins by KO/TKO	26%	2.60	✓ predicted
Finish round Finish in Round 1	38%	—	missed

Every Sportsbet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Jack Della Maddalena wins by finish in Round 1 value	18%	10.00	✗ lost
Finish before Round 2	38%	4.65	✗ lost
Carlos Prates wins by finish in Round 1	19%	7.75	✗ lost
Carlos Prates wins by DEC	21%	6.50	✗ lost
Carlos Prates wins by Sub or Decision	25%	5.40	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	21%	5.60	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	42%	2.78	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	42%	2.70	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	58%	1.80	—
Jack Della Maddalena wins	49%	1.98	✗ lost
Carlos Prates wins	51%	1.86	✓ won
Jack Della Maddalena wins by KO or Decision	44%	2.12	✗ lost
Jack Della Maddalena wins by Sub or Decision	25%	3.70	✗ lost
Jack Della Maddalena wins by DEC	21%	4.50	✗ lost
Carlos Prates wins by KO or Decision	47%	1.93	✓ won
Fight reaches Round 5	42%	2.17	✗ lost
Jack Della Maddalena wins by KO or Sub	28%	3.15	✗ lost
Jack Della Maddalena wins by KO/TKO	24%	3.75	✗ lost
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	42%	2.02	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission	8%	10.00	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	42%	2.00	—
Carlos Prates wins by SUB	4%	23.00	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	58%	1.41	✓ won
Jack Della Maddalena wins by finish in Round 1	18%	4.40	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	50%	1.58	✓ won
Carlos Prates wins in R4+ or by Decision	21%	3.60	✗ lost
Carlos Prates wins by KO or Sub	30%	2.40	✓ won
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	42%	1.73	✓ won
Jack Della Maddalena wins by SUB	5%	15.00	✗ lost
Carlos Prates wins by KO/TKO	26%	2.60	✓ won
Carlos Prates wins by finish in Round 1	19%	3.40	✗ lost
Jack Della Maddalena wins in R4+ or by Decision	20%	3.20	✗ lost

Wes Schultz

9-3-0

Winner

Wes Schultz

SUB · R3

✓ predicted

Ben Johnston

0-1-0

Model Prediction post-hoc

Wes Schultz ✓ won 72%

KO 15%· Sub 16%· Dec 41%

Ben Johnston 28%

KO 5%· Sub 11%· Dec 12%

Vince Morales

16-11-0

Winner

Colby Thicknesse

Decision (U) · R3

✓ predicted

Colby Thicknesse

9-1-0

Model Prediction

Vince Morales 37%

KO 5%· Sub 3%· Dec 26%

Colby Thicknesse ✓ won 63%

KO 11%· Sub 7%· Dec 48%

Tim Elliott

22-14-1

Winner

Steve Erceg

Decision (U) · R3

✓ predicted

Steve Erceg

14-4-0

Model Prediction

Tim Elliott 33%

KO 6%· Sub 5%· Dec 22%

Steve Erceg ✓ won 67%

KO 15%· Sub 6%· Dec 46%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Steve Erceg wins	67%	1.53	✓ predicted
Method Steve Erceg wins by Decision	46%	2.25	✓ predicted
Finish round Goes the distance	68%	1.52	✓ predicted

Every Sportsbet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Steve Erceg wins by KO/TKO	15%	10.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	21%	5.75	✗ lost
Steve Erceg wins by KO or Decision value	61%	1.92	✓ won
Steve Erceg wins	67%	1.53	✓ won
Fight goes to decision	68%	1.52	✓ won
Steve Erceg wins by DEC	46%	2.25	✓ won
Fight goes to Decision	68%	1.51	✓ won
Tim Elliott wins by DEC	22%	4.50	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	71%	1.40	✓ won
Steve Erceg wins in R3+ or by Decision	49%	2.00	✓ won
Fight reaches Round 3	73%	1.31	✓ won
Tim Elliott wins by KO or Decision	28%	3.35	✗ lost
Steve Erceg wins by KO or Sub	22%	4.25	✗ lost
Steve Erceg wins by finish in Round 1	11%	8.50	✗ lost
Steve Erceg wins by Sub or Decision	52%	1.72	✓ won
Tim Elliott wins in R3+ or by Decision	24%	3.70	✗ lost
Finish before Round 3	27%	3.25	✗ lost
Tim Elliott wins	33%	2.51	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	29%	2.75	✗ lost
Tim Elliott wins by Sub or Decision	27%	3.00	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	32%	2.41	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	11%	6.75	✗ lost
Tim Elliott wins by KO/TKO	6%	10.50	✗ lost
Steve Erceg wins by finish in Round 1	11%	5.50	✗ lost
Tim Elliott wins by KO or Sub	11%	4.80	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	6%	8.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	11%	3.75	✗ lost
Tim Elliott wins by SUB	5%	7.75	✗ lost
Steve Erceg wins by SUB	6%	6.25	✗ lost
Tim Elliott wins by finish in Round 1	5%	6.25	✗ lost

Themba Gorimbo

14-6-0

Winner

Jonathan Micallef

Decision (S) · R3

✓ predicted

Jonathan Micallef

10-1-0

Model Prediction

Themba Gorimbo 44%

KO 5%· Sub 4%· Dec 38%

Jonathan Micallef ✓ won 56%

KO 15%· Sub 9%· Dec 30%

Tai Tuivasa

15-10-0

Winner

Louie Sutherland

Decision (U) · R3

✓ predicted

Louie Sutherland

11-5-0

Model Prediction

Tai Tuivasa 48%

KO 23%· Sub 5%· Dec 19%

Louie Sutherland ✓ won 52%

KO 18%· Sub 9%· Dec 24%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Louie Sutherland wins value	52%	2.80	✓ predicted
Method Louie Sutherland wins by Decision value	24%	6.50	✓ predicted
Finish round Goes the distance	44%	3.32	✓ predicted

Every Sportsbet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Tai Tuivasa wins by SUB	5%	31.00	✗ lost
Louie Sutherland wins by DEC value	24%	6.50	✓ won
Louie Sutherland wins by Sub or Decision value	34%	4.70	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission	15%	10.00	✗ lost
Louie Sutherland wins by Decision	24%	6.00	✓ won
Louie Sutherland wins value	52%	2.80	✓ won
Fight goes to decision	44%	3.32	✓ won
Fight goes to Decision	44%	3.30	✓ won
Tai Tuivasa wins by Sub or Decision	25%	5.70	✗ lost
Louie Sutherland wins by KO or Decision value	43%	3.25	✓ won
Louie Sutherland wins by finish in Round 1	16%	8.50	✗ lost
Tai Tuivasa wins by DEC	19%	6.25	✗ lost
Louie Sutherland wins by KO or Sub	28%	4.25	✗ lost
Louie Sutherland wins by SUB	9%	12.50	✗ lost
Tai Tuivasa wins by Decision	19%	6.00	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 3	49%	2.26	✓ won
Under 2.5 rounds	54%	2.00	✗ lost
Louie Sutherland wins by KO/TKO	18%	5.75	✗ lost
Louie Sutherland wins by finish in Round 1	16%	5.40	✗ lost
Louie Sutherland wins by finish in Round 2	9%	9.50	✗ lost
Finish before Round 2	33%	2.57	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	46%	1.72	✓ won
Fight ends before decision	56%	1.30	✗ lost
Tai Tuivasa wins	48%	1.44	✗ lost
Tai Tuivasa wins by KO or Decision	43%	1.47	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	42%	1.43	✗ lost
Tai Tuivasa wins by KO or Sub	29%	1.78	✗ lost
Tai Tuivasa wins by KO/TKO	23%	1.84	✗ lost
Tai Tuivasa wins by finish in Round 1	17%	2.12	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	5%	6.00	✗ lost

Shamil Gaziev

14-3-0

Winner

Brando Peričić

KO/TKO · R2

✓ predicted

Brando Peričić

7-1-0

Model Prediction

Shamil Gaziev 47%

KO 15%· Sub 8%· Dec 24%

Brando Peričić ✓ won 53%

KO 32%· Sub 6%· Dec 16%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Brando Peričić wins	53%	1.91	✓ predicted
Method Fight ends by KO/TKO	47%	1.36	✓ predicted
Finish round Finish in Round 1	35%	2.87	missed

Every Sportsbet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Fight goes to Decision	40%	5.80	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	40%	5.50	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 3	45%	4.25	✗ lost
Shamil Gaziev wins by DEC value	24%	8.00	✗ lost
Shamil Gaziev wins by Decision value	24%	7.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	20%	6.50	✓ won
Over 2.5 rounds	43%	2.75	✗ lost
Shamil Gaziev wins by Sub or Decision	31%	3.50	✗ lost
Shamil Gaziev wins by KO or Decision	39%	2.65	✗ lost
Brando Peričić wins	53%	1.91	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 1	35%	2.87	✗ lost
Shamil Gaziev wins	47%	1.93	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	57%	1.40	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	20%	4.00	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 1	35%	2.12	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	60%	1.13	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission	13%	5.00	✗ lost
Finish before Round 3	55%	1.20	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	5%	12.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	47%	1.36	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	5%	11.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 1	35%	1.65	✗ lost
Shamil Gaziev wins by KO/TKO	15%	3.70	✗ lost
Shamil Gaziev wins by KO or Sub	23%	2.35	✗ lost
Shamil Gaziev wins by SUB	8%	5.80	✗ lost

Robert Bryczek

18-7-0

Winner

Cam Rowston

Decision (U) · R3

✓ predicted

Cam Rowston

15-3-0

Model Prediction

Robert Bryczek 28%

KO 8%· Sub 3%· Dec 17%

Cam Rowston ✓ won 72%

KO 35%· Sub 7%· Dec 30%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Cam Rowston wins value	72%	1.54	✓ predicted
Method Cam Rowston wins by KO/TKO value	35%	6.25	missed
Finish round Finish in Round 1	29%	—	missed

Every Sportsbet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Cam Rowston wins by KO/TKO value	35%	6.25	✗ lost
Cam Rowston wins by KO or Decision value	65%	2.65	✓ won
Cam Rowston wins by DEC	30%	4.30	✓ won
Cam Rowston wins in R3+ or by Decision value	40%	3.25	✓ won
Fight goes to decision	47%	2.71	✓ won
Fight goes to Decision	47%	2.65	✓ won
Robert Bryczek wins by Sub or Decision	20%	5.80	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 3	55%	2.05	✓ won
Robert Bryczek wins by DEC	17%	6.75	✗ lost
Cam Rowston wins value	72%	1.54	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO	43%	2.50	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	49%	2.10	✗ lost
Robert Bryczek wins by Decision	17%	6.00	✗ lost
Cam Rowston wins by finish in Round 1	22%	4.50	✗ lost
Cam Rowston wins by KO or Sub	42%	2.25	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	51%	1.66	✓ won
Robert Bryczek wins by SUB	3%	26.00	✗ lost
Finish before Round 2	29%	2.80	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	53%	1.43	✗ lost
Cam Rowston wins by finish in Round 2	12%	6.00	✗ lost
Cam Rowston wins by Sub or Decision	37%	1.94	✓ won
Robert Bryczek wins	28%	2.49	✗ lost
Robert Bryczek wins by KO or Decision	25%	2.55	✗ lost
Cam Rowston wins by finish in Round 1	22%	2.70	✗ lost
Robert Bryczek wins by KO or Sub	12%	3.50	✗ lost
Robert Bryczek wins by finish in Round 1	6%	6.00	✗ lost
Robert Bryczek wins by KO/TKO	8%	3.80	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	10%	3.05	✗ lost
Robert Bryczek wins by finish in Round 2	3%	8.50	✗ lost
Robert Bryczek wins by finish in Round 1	6%	4.10	✗ lost
Cam Rowston wins by SUB	7%	3.30	✗ lost

Marwan Rahiki

9-0-0

Winner

Marwan Rahiki

KO/TKO · R1

✓ predicted

Ollie Schmid

4-3-0

Model Prediction

Marwan Rahiki ✓ won 74%

KO 48%· Sub 6%· Dec 20%

Ollie Schmid 26%

KO 13%· Sub 13%· Dec 0%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Marwan Rahiki wins	74%	1.13	✓ predicted
Method Marwan Rahiki wins by KO/TKO	48%	1.68	✓ predicted
Finish round Finish in Round 1	51%	—	✓ predicted

Every Sportsbet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Ollie Schmid wins by SUB value	13%	21.00	✗ lost
Ollie Schmid wins by KO or Sub value	26%	7.00	✗ lost
Ollie Schmid wins by finish in Round 1	17%	10.50	✗ lost
Marwan Rahiki wins by DEC	20%	8.25	✗ lost
Ollie Schmid wins value	26%	6.00	✗ lost
Marwan Rahiki wins by Decision	20%	7.50	✗ lost
Ollie Schmid wins by finish in Round 1	17%	8.75	✗ lost
Ollie Schmid wins by Sub or Decision	13%	11.00	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	80%	1.53	✓ won
Ollie Schmid wins by KO/TKO	13%	9.00	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	20%	5.80	✗ lost
Ollie Schmid wins by finish in Round 2	9%	12.00	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	20%	5.40	✗ lost
Finish before Round 3	80%	1.28	✓ won
Marwan Rahiki wins by KO or Decision	68%	1.43	✓ won
Fight ends before decision	80%	1.13	✓ won
Fight reaches Round 2	49%	1.81	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	61%	1.45	✓ won
Ollie Schmid wins by KO or Decision	13%	6.75	✗ lost
Marwan Rahiki wins by Sub or Decision	26%	3.20	✗ lost
Marwan Rahiki wins	74%	1.13	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission	20%	4.10	✗ lost
Marwan Rahiki wins by KO/TKO	48%	1.68	✓ won
Marwan Rahiki wins by KO or Sub	54%	1.26	✓ won
Ollie Schmid wins in R3+ or by Decision	5%	11.50	✗ lost
Marwan Rahiki wins by finish in Round 1	35%	1.46	✓ won
Over 2.5 rounds	20%	2.37	✗ lost
Marwan Rahiki wins by SUB	6%	4.80	✗ lost

Junior Tafa

7-5-0

Winner

Junior Tafa

KO/TKO · R1

✗ wrong

Kevin Christian

9-3-0

Model Prediction

Junior Tafa ✓ won 45%

KO 23%· Sub 5%· Dec 16%

Kevin Christian 55%

KO 30%· Sub 9%· Dec 17%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Kevin Christian wins value	55%	2.83	missed
Method Kevin Christian wins by KO/TKO value	30%	7.50	missed
Finish round Finish in Round 1	37%	—	✓ predicted

Every Sportsbet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Kevin Christian wins by KO or Decision value	47%	5.25	✗ lost
Kevin Christian wins by KO/TKO value	30%	7.50	✗ lost
Kevin Christian wins by DEC value	17%	12.50	✗ lost
Kevin Christian wins in R3+ or by Decision value	22%	8.25	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	33%	5.25	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	33%	5.20	✗ lost
Junior Tafa wins by SUB	5%	29.00	✗ lost
Kevin Christian wins value	55%	2.83	✗ lost
Junior Tafa wins by Sub or Decision	21%	7.00	✗ lost
Junior Tafa wins by DEC	16%	8.50	✗ lost
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	39%	3.45	✗ lost
Junior Tafa wins by Decision	16%	8.00	✗ lost
Kevin Christian wins by KO or Sub value	38%	3.30	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 2	63%	1.90	✗ lost
Kevin Christian wins by finish in Round 1	21%	5.50	✗ lost
Kevin Christian wins by finish in Round 2	14%	8.50	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	64%	1.57	✓ won
Kevin Christian wins by Sub or Decision	25%	3.90	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	36%	2.25	✗ lost
Kevin Christian wins by finish in Round 1	21%	3.80	✗ lost
Finish before Round 3	61%	1.28	✓ won
Fight ends before decision	67%	1.14	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO	53%	1.44	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission	14%	4.60	✗ lost
Junior Tafa wins	45%	1.43	✓ won
Junior Tafa wins by KO or Decision	39%	1.47	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	6%	8.50	✗ lost
Junior Tafa wins by KO or Sub	29%	1.65	✓ won
Kevin Christian wins by SUB	9%	5.20	✗ lost
Junior Tafa wins by KO/TKO	23%	1.72	✓ won
Junior Tafa wins by finish in Round 1	16%	1.83	✓ won

Gerald Meerschaert

37-22-0

Winner

Jacob Malkoun

Decision (U) · R3

✓ predicted

Jacob Malkoun

10-3-0

Model Prediction

Gerald Meerschaert 35%

KO 5%· Sub 15%· Dec 12%

Jacob Malkoun ✓ won 65%

KO 18%· Sub 3%· Dec 47%

Dom Mar Fan

9-3-0

Winner

Kody Steele

SUB · R1

✗ wrong

Kody Steele

8-1-0

Model Prediction

Dom Mar Fan 56%

KO 15%· Sub 9%· Dec 35%

Kody Steele ✓ won 44%

KO 10%· Sub 8%· Dec 23%

Beneil Dariush

23-8-1

Winner

Quillan Salkilld

KO/TKO · R1

✓ predicted

Quillan Salkilld

12-1-0

Model Prediction

Beneil Dariush 17%

KO 4%· Sub 5%· Dec 8%

Quillan Salkilld ✓ won 83%

KO 36%· Sub 20%· Dec 27%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Quillan Salkilld wins	83%	1.24	✓ predicted
Method Quillan Salkilld wins by KO/TKO	36%	1.71	✓ predicted
Finish round Finish in Round 1	35%	—	✓ predicted

Every Sportsbet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Quillan Salkilld wins by Sub or Decision value	47%	4.10	✗ lost
Quillan Salkilld wins by DEC value	27%	7.00	✗ lost
Quillan Salkilld wins by Decision value	27%	6.50	✗ lost
Quillan Salkilld wins by SUB	20%	8.00	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	35%	4.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	25%	5.60	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	35%	3.90	✗ lost
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	46%	2.67	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 2	65%	1.71	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	60%	1.83	✓ won
Quillan Salkilld wins	83%	1.24	✓ won
Quillan Salkilld wins by finish in Round 2	17%	5.50	✗ lost
Quillan Salkilld wins by KO or Decision	63%	1.41	✓ won
Quillan Salkilld wins by KO or Sub	56%	1.45	✓ won
Fight ends before decision	65%	1.22	✓ won
Finish before Round 3	54%	1.44	✓ won
Over 2.5 rounds	40%	1.83	✗ lost
Beneil Dariush wins by Sub or Decision	13%	5.80	✗ lost
Quillan Salkilld wins by finish in Round 1	30%	2.37	✓ won
Beneil Dariush wins	17%	4.10	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	11%	6.50	✗ lost
Beneil Dariush wins by DEC	8%	8.50	✗ lost
Beneil Dariush wins by SUB	5%	14.00	✗ lost
Quillan Salkilld wins by KO/TKO	36%	1.71	✓ won
Beneil Dariush wins by KO or Decision	12%	4.90	✗ lost
Beneil Dariush wins by Decision	8%	7.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	40%	1.49	✓ won
Beneil Dariush wins by KO or Sub	9%	6.25	✗ lost
Quillan Salkilld wins by finish in Round 1	30%	1.70	✓ won
Beneil Dariush wins by KO/TKO	4%	9.50	✗ lost
Beneil Dariush wins by finish in Round 1	5%	7.75	✗ lost