UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates — Results & Recap

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⟁ Past Events — Predictions vs. Actual Results

99 / 134

Correct Picks

73.9% accuracy · 12 events

−$304

Parlay P&L

$33 / parlay (2·3·4-leg) · 1-10 · 11 parlays

−$430

Running P&L · opening

$1000 / event · Conservative · Kelly-weighted · closing: +$369

44 of 51 confident picks landed — when the model gives a fighter 70%+ it has been right 86% of the time

10–15 betting record with the same amount on every recommended bet (-7.1 units — early days, small sample)

Bankroll curve $1000 per event · Conservative tier · opening odds −$430

2026-06-15 peak $125 · trough $-471 2026-08-01

UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez 2026-08-01 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · −$33

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Mateusz Rebecki wins	Kyle Prepolec vs Mateusz Rebecki	1.18	$80	✓ won +$14
Oban Elliott wins	Oban Elliott vs Michael Oliveira	3.57	$80	✗ lost −$80
Bogdan Grad wins	Dennis Buzukja vs Bogdan Grad	1.52	$62	✓ won +$32
Fight goes to Decision	Daniel Rodriguez vs Uros Medic	7.25	—	⋯ pending

UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov 2026-07-25 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · −$102

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Nurullo Aliev wins	Mike Davis vs Nurullo Aliev	1.54	$80	✓ won +$43
Tyrell Fortune wins	Rizvan Kuniev vs Tyrell Fortune	3.34	$80	✗ lost −$80
Damian Rzepecki wins	Magomed Zaynukov vs Damian Rzepecki	3.73	$43	✗ lost −$43
Dustin Jacoby wins	Dustin Jacoby vs Muhammad Said	1.59	$23	✗ lost −$23

UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman 2026-07-18 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · +$38

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Chase Hooper wins	Chase Hooper vs Mitch Ramirez	1.27	$80	✓ won +$22
Christian Leroy Duncan wins	Jared Cannonier vs Christian Leroy Duncan	1.32	$80	✓ won +$26
Dricus Du Plessis wins by SUB	Kamaru Usman vs Dricus Du Plessis	9.25	$55	✗ lost −$55
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani wins	Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs Seokhyeon Ko	2.66	$28	✓ won +$46

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 2026-07-11 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly · −$200

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Elisha Ellison wins	Gable Steveson vs Elisha Ellison	10.00	$138	✗ lost −$138
Benoit Saint Denis wins	Paddy Pimblett vs Benoit Saint Denis	1.53	$62	✗ lost −$62

UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres 2026-06-27 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly · −$216

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Manuel Torres wins	Rafael Fiziev vs Manuel Torres	1.96	$115	✗ lost −$115
Eric Nolan wins by Sub or Decision	Eric Nolan vs Farman Hasanov	5.30	$70	✗ lost −$70
Matheus Camilo wins	Nazim Sadykhov vs Matheus Camilo	2.99	$48	✓ won +$95
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	Julius Walker vs Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev	3.92	$44	✗ lost −$44
Fight reaches Round 2	Julius Walker vs Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev	2.17	$44	✗ lost −$44
Michel Pereira wins	Michel Pereira vs Shara Magomedov	3.82	$37	✗ lost −$37

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi 2 2026-06-20 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly · +$109

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Luana Santos wins	Karol Rosa vs Luana Santos	1.97	$157	✓ won +$152
Kyoji Horiguchi wins by KO/TKO	Kyoji Horiguchi vs Manel Kape	11.50	$43	✗ lost −$43

UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje 2026-06-15 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly · −$26

Pick	Fight	Odds	Stake	Result
Josh Hokit wins by KO or Decision	Derrick Lewis vs Josh Hokit	1.78	$73	✓ won +$57
Ilia Topuria wins by DEC	Justin Gaethje vs Ilia Topuria	13.00	$57	✗ lost −$57
Steve Garcia wins	Steve Garcia vs Diego Lopes	2.48	$52	✗ lost −$52
Bo Nickal wins by KO or Decision	Kyle Daukaus vs Bo Nickal	1.71	$38	✓ won +$27

UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez 2026-08-01 · $33/parlay · −$7

2-leg parlay @ 1.79 · $33 stake ✓ WON +$26

3-leg parlay @ 2.31 ⋯ pending

4-leg parlay @ 5.28 · $33 stake ✗ LOST −$33

UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov 2026-07-25 · $33/parlay · −$99

2-leg parlay @ 2.45 · $33 stake ✗ LOST −$33

3-leg parlay @ 4.82 · $33 stake ✗ LOST −$33

4-leg parlay @ 7.24 · $33 stake ✗ LOST −$33

UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman 2026-07-18 · $33/parlay · −$99

2-leg parlay @ 2.24 · $33 stake ✗ LOST −$33

3-leg parlay @ 4.22 · $33 stake ✗ LOST −$33

4-leg parlay @ 5.36 · $33 stake ✗ LOST −$33

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 2026-07-11 · $33/parlay · −$99

2-leg parlay @ 1.99 · $33 stake ✗ LOST −$33

3-leg parlay @ 3.02 · $33 stake ✗ LOST −$33

4-leg parlay @ 4.74 · $33 stake ✗ LOST −$33

UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates 11/13 · 85%

2026-05-02

Carlos Prates

24-7-0

Winner

Carlos Prates

KO/TKO · R3

✓ predicted

Jack Della Maddalena

18-4-0

▼

Model Prediction

Carlos Prates ✓ won 51%

KO 26%· Sub 4%· Dec 21%

Jack Della Maddalena 49%

KO 24%· Sub 5%· Dec 21%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Carlos Prates wins	51%	1.86	✓ predicted
Method Carlos Prates wins by KO/TKO	26%	2.60	✓ predicted
Finish round Finish in Round 1	38%	—	missed

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Jack Della Maddalena wins by finish in Round 1 value	18%	10.00	✗ lost
Finish before Round 2	38%	4.65	✗ lost
Carlos Prates wins by finish in Round 1	19%	7.75	✗ lost
Carlos Prates wins by DEC	21%	6.50	✗ lost
Carlos Prates wins by Sub or Decision	25%	5.40	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	21%	5.60	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	42%	2.78	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	42%	2.70	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	58%	1.80	—
Jack Della Maddalena wins	49%	1.98	✗ lost
Carlos Prates wins	51%	1.86	✓ won
Jack Della Maddalena wins by KO or Decision	44%	2.12	✗ lost
Jack Della Maddalena wins by Sub or Decision	25%	3.70	✗ lost
Jack Della Maddalena wins by DEC	21%	4.50	✗ lost
Carlos Prates wins by KO or Decision	47%	1.93	✓ won
Fight reaches Round 5	42%	2.17	✗ lost
Jack Della Maddalena wins by KO or Sub	28%	3.15	✗ lost
Jack Della Maddalena wins by KO/TKO	24%	3.75	✗ lost
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	42%	2.02	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission	8%	10.00	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	42%	2.00	—
Carlos Prates wins by SUB	4%	23.00	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	58%	1.41	✓ won
Jack Della Maddalena wins by finish in Round 1	18%	4.40	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	50%	1.58	✓ won
Carlos Prates wins in R4+ or by Decision	21%	3.60	✗ lost
Carlos Prates wins by KO or Sub	30%	2.40	✓ won
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	42%	1.73	✓ won
Jack Della Maddalena wins by SUB	5%	15.00	✗ lost
Carlos Prates wins by KO/TKO	26%	2.60	✓ won
Carlos Prates wins by finish in Round 1	19%	3.40	✗ lost
Jack Della Maddalena wins in R4+ or by Decision	20%	3.20	✗ lost

Wes Schultz

9-3-0

Winner

Wes Schultz

SUB · R3

✓ predicted

Ben Johnston

0-1-0

▼

Model Prediction post-hoc

Wes Schultz ✓ won 72%

KO 15%· Sub 16%· Dec 41%

Ben Johnston 28%

KO 5%· Sub 11%· Dec 12%

Vince Morales

16-11-0

Winner

Colby Thicknesse

Decision (U) · R3

✓ predicted

Colby Thicknesse

9-1-0

▼

Model Prediction

Vince Morales 37%

KO 5%· Sub 3%· Dec 26%

Colby Thicknesse ✓ won 63%

KO 11%· Sub 7%· Dec 48%

Tim Elliott

22-14-1

Winner

Steve Erceg

Decision (U) · R3

✓ predicted

Steve Erceg

14-4-0

▼

Model Prediction

Tim Elliott 33%

KO 6%· Sub 5%· Dec 22%

Steve Erceg ✓ won 67%

KO 15%· Sub 6%· Dec 46%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Steve Erceg wins	67%	1.53	✓ predicted
Method Steve Erceg wins by Decision	46%	2.25	✓ predicted
Finish round Goes the distance	68%	1.52	✓ predicted

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Steve Erceg wins by KO/TKO	15%	10.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	21%	5.75	✗ lost
Steve Erceg wins by KO or Decision value	61%	1.92	✓ won
Steve Erceg wins	67%	1.53	✓ won
Fight goes to decision	68%	1.52	✓ won
Steve Erceg wins by DEC	46%	2.25	✓ won
Fight goes to Decision	68%	1.51	✓ won
Tim Elliott wins by DEC	22%	4.50	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	71%	1.40	✓ won
Steve Erceg wins in R3+ or by Decision	49%	2.00	✓ won
Fight reaches Round 3	73%	1.31	✓ won
Tim Elliott wins by KO or Decision	28%	3.35	✗ lost
Steve Erceg wins by KO or Sub	22%	4.25	✗ lost
Steve Erceg wins by finish in Round 1	11%	8.50	✗ lost
Steve Erceg wins by Sub or Decision	52%	1.72	✓ won
Tim Elliott wins in R3+ or by Decision	24%	3.70	✗ lost
Finish before Round 3	27%	3.25	✗ lost
Tim Elliott wins	33%	2.51	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	29%	2.75	✗ lost
Tim Elliott wins by Sub or Decision	27%	3.00	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	32%	2.41	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	11%	6.75	✗ lost
Tim Elliott wins by KO/TKO	6%	10.50	✗ lost
Steve Erceg wins by finish in Round 1	11%	5.50	✗ lost
Tim Elliott wins by KO or Sub	11%	4.80	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	6%	8.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	11%	3.75	✗ lost
Tim Elliott wins by SUB	5%	7.75	✗ lost
Steve Erceg wins by SUB	6%	6.25	✗ lost
Tim Elliott wins by finish in Round 1	5%	6.25	✗ lost

Themba Gorimbo

14-6-0

Winner

Jonathan Micallef

Decision (S) · R3

✓ predicted

Jonathan Micallef

10-1-0

▼

Model Prediction

Themba Gorimbo 44%

KO 5%· Sub 4%· Dec 38%

Jonathan Micallef ✓ won 56%

KO 15%· Sub 9%· Dec 30%

Tai Tuivasa

15-10-0

Winner

Louie Sutherland

Decision (U) · R3

✓ predicted

Louie Sutherland

11-5-0

▼

Model Prediction

Tai Tuivasa 48%

KO 23%· Sub 5%· Dec 19%

Louie Sutherland ✓ won 52%

KO 18%· Sub 9%· Dec 24%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Louie Sutherland wins value	52%	2.80	✓ predicted
Method Louie Sutherland wins by Decision value	24%	6.50	✓ predicted
Finish round Goes the distance	44%	3.32	✓ predicted

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Tai Tuivasa wins by SUB	5%	31.00	✗ lost
Louie Sutherland wins by DEC value	24%	6.50	✓ won
Louie Sutherland wins by Sub or Decision value	34%	4.70	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission	15%	10.00	✗ lost
Louie Sutherland wins by Decision	24%	6.00	✓ won
Louie Sutherland wins value	52%	2.80	✓ won
Fight goes to decision	44%	3.32	✓ won
Fight goes to Decision	44%	3.30	✓ won
Tai Tuivasa wins by Sub or Decision	25%	5.70	✗ lost
Louie Sutherland wins by KO or Decision value	43%	3.25	✓ won
Louie Sutherland wins by finish in Round 1	16%	8.50	✗ lost
Tai Tuivasa wins by DEC	19%	6.25	✗ lost
Louie Sutherland wins by KO or Sub	28%	4.25	✗ lost
Louie Sutherland wins by SUB	9%	12.50	✗ lost
Tai Tuivasa wins by Decision	19%	6.00	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 3	49%	2.26	✓ won
Under 2.5 rounds	54%	2.00	✗ lost
Louie Sutherland wins by KO/TKO	18%	5.75	✗ lost
Louie Sutherland wins by finish in Round 1	16%	5.40	✗ lost
Louie Sutherland wins by finish in Round 2	9%	9.50	✗ lost
Finish before Round 2	33%	2.57	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	46%	1.72	✓ won
Fight ends before decision	56%	1.30	✗ lost
Tai Tuivasa wins	48%	1.44	✗ lost
Tai Tuivasa wins by KO or Decision	43%	1.47	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	42%	1.43	✗ lost
Tai Tuivasa wins by KO or Sub	29%	1.78	✗ lost
Tai Tuivasa wins by KO/TKO	23%	1.84	✗ lost
Tai Tuivasa wins by finish in Round 1	17%	2.12	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	5%	6.00	✗ lost

Shamil Gaziev

14-3-0

Winner

Brando Peričić

KO/TKO · R2

✓ predicted

Brando Peričić

7-1-0

▼

Model Prediction

Shamil Gaziev 47%

KO 15%· Sub 8%· Dec 24%

Brando Peričić ✓ won 53%

KO 32%· Sub 6%· Dec 16%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Brando Peričić wins	53%	1.91	✓ predicted
Method Fight ends by KO/TKO	47%	1.36	✓ predicted
Finish round Finish in Round 1	35%	2.87	missed

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Fight goes to Decision	40%	5.80	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	40%	5.50	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 3	45%	4.25	✗ lost
Shamil Gaziev wins by DEC value	24%	8.00	✗ lost
Shamil Gaziev wins by Decision value	24%	7.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	20%	6.50	✓ won
Over 2.5 rounds	43%	2.75	✗ lost
Shamil Gaziev wins by Sub or Decision	31%	3.50	✗ lost
Shamil Gaziev wins by KO or Decision	39%	2.65	✗ lost
Brando Peričić wins	53%	1.91	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 1	35%	2.87	✗ lost
Shamil Gaziev wins	47%	1.93	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	57%	1.40	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 2	20%	4.00	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 1	35%	2.12	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	60%	1.13	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission	13%	5.00	✗ lost
Finish before Round 3	55%	1.20	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	5%	12.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	47%	1.36	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	5%	11.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 1	35%	1.65	✗ lost
Shamil Gaziev wins by KO/TKO	15%	3.70	✗ lost
Shamil Gaziev wins by KO or Sub	23%	2.35	✗ lost
Shamil Gaziev wins by SUB	8%	5.80	✗ lost

Robert Bryczek

18-7-0

Winner

Cam Rowston

Decision (U) · R3

✓ predicted

Cam Rowston

3-0-0

▼

Model Prediction

Robert Bryczek 28%

KO 8%· Sub 3%· Dec 17%

Cam Rowston ✓ won 72%

KO 35%· Sub 7%· Dec 30%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Cam Rowston wins value	72%	1.54	✓ predicted
Method Cam Rowston wins by KO/TKO value	35%	6.25	missed
Finish round Finish in Round 1	29%	—	missed

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Cam Rowston wins by KO/TKO value	35%	6.25	✗ lost
Cam Rowston wins by KO or Decision value	65%	2.65	✓ won
Cam Rowston wins by DEC	30%	4.30	✓ won
Cam Rowston wins in R3+ or by Decision value	40%	3.25	✓ won
Fight goes to decision	47%	2.71	✓ won
Fight goes to Decision	47%	2.65	✓ won
Robert Bryczek wins by Sub or Decision	20%	5.80	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 3	55%	2.05	✓ won
Robert Bryczek wins by DEC	17%	6.75	✗ lost
Cam Rowston wins value	72%	1.54	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO	43%	2.50	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	49%	2.10	✗ lost
Robert Bryczek wins by Decision	17%	6.00	✗ lost
Cam Rowston wins by finish in Round 1	22%	4.50	✗ lost
Cam Rowston wins by KO or Sub	42%	2.25	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	51%	1.66	✓ won
Robert Bryczek wins by SUB	3%	26.00	✗ lost
Finish before Round 2	29%	2.80	✗ lost
Fight ends before decision	53%	1.43	✗ lost
Cam Rowston wins by finish in Round 2	12%	6.00	✗ lost
Cam Rowston wins by Sub or Decision	37%	1.94	✓ won
Robert Bryczek wins	28%	2.49	✗ lost
Robert Bryczek wins by KO or Decision	25%	2.55	✗ lost
Cam Rowston wins by finish in Round 1	22%	2.70	✗ lost
Robert Bryczek wins by KO or Sub	12%	3.50	✗ lost
Robert Bryczek wins by finish in Round 1	6%	6.00	✗ lost
Robert Bryczek wins by KO/TKO	8%	3.80	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	10%	3.05	✗ lost
Robert Bryczek wins by finish in Round 2	3%	8.50	✗ lost
Robert Bryczek wins by finish in Round 1	6%	4.10	✗ lost
Cam Rowston wins by SUB	7%	3.30	✗ lost

Marwan Rahiki

9-0-0

Winner

Marwan Rahiki

KO/TKO · R1

✓ predicted

Ollie Schmid

4-3-0

▼

Model Prediction

Marwan Rahiki ✓ won 74%

KO 48%· Sub 6%· Dec 20%

Ollie Schmid 26%

KO 13%· Sub 13%· Dec 0%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Marwan Rahiki wins	74%	1.13	✓ predicted
Method Marwan Rahiki wins by KO/TKO	48%	1.68	✓ predicted
Finish round Finish in Round 1	51%	—	✓ predicted

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Ollie Schmid wins by SUB value	13%	21.00	✗ lost
Ollie Schmid wins by KO or Sub value	26%	7.00	✗ lost
Ollie Schmid wins by finish in Round 1	17%	10.50	✗ lost
Marwan Rahiki wins by DEC	20%	8.25	✗ lost
Ollie Schmid wins value	26%	6.00	✗ lost
Marwan Rahiki wins by Decision	20%	7.50	✗ lost
Ollie Schmid wins by finish in Round 1	17%	8.75	✗ lost
Ollie Schmid wins by Sub or Decision	13%	11.00	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	80%	1.53	✓ won
Ollie Schmid wins by KO/TKO	13%	9.00	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	20%	5.80	✗ lost
Ollie Schmid wins by finish in Round 2	9%	12.00	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	20%	5.40	✗ lost
Finish before Round 3	80%	1.28	✓ won
Marwan Rahiki wins by KO or Decision	68%	1.43	✓ won
Fight ends before decision	80%	1.13	✓ won
Fight reaches Round 2	49%	1.81	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	61%	1.45	✓ won
Ollie Schmid wins by KO or Decision	13%	6.75	✗ lost
Marwan Rahiki wins by Sub or Decision	26%	3.20	✗ lost
Marwan Rahiki wins	74%	1.13	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission	20%	4.10	✗ lost
Marwan Rahiki wins by KO/TKO	48%	1.68	✓ won
Marwan Rahiki wins by KO or Sub	54%	1.26	✓ won
Ollie Schmid wins in R3+ or by Decision	5%	11.50	✗ lost
Marwan Rahiki wins by finish in Round 1	35%	1.46	✓ won
Over 2.5 rounds	20%	2.37	✗ lost
Marwan Rahiki wins by SUB	6%	4.80	✗ lost

Junior Tafa

7-5-0

Winner

Junior Tafa

KO/TKO · R1

✗ wrong

Kevin Christian

9-3-0

▼

Model Prediction

Junior Tafa ✓ won 45%

KO 23%· Sub 5%· Dec 16%

Kevin Christian 55%

KO 30%· Sub 9%· Dec 17%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Kevin Christian wins value	55%	2.83	missed
Method Kevin Christian wins by KO/TKO value	30%	7.50	missed
Finish round Finish in Round 1	37%	—	✓ predicted

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Kevin Christian wins by KO or Decision value	47%	5.25	✗ lost
Kevin Christian wins by KO/TKO value	30%	7.50	✗ lost
Kevin Christian wins by DEC value	17%	12.50	✗ lost
Kevin Christian wins in R3+ or by Decision value	22%	8.25	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	33%	5.25	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	33%	5.20	✗ lost
Junior Tafa wins by SUB	5%	29.00	✗ lost
Kevin Christian wins value	55%	2.83	✗ lost
Junior Tafa wins by Sub or Decision	21%	7.00	✗ lost
Junior Tafa wins by DEC	16%	8.50	✗ lost
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	39%	3.45	✗ lost
Junior Tafa wins by Decision	16%	8.00	✗ lost
Kevin Christian wins by KO or Sub value	38%	3.30	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 2	63%	1.90	✗ lost
Kevin Christian wins by finish in Round 1	21%	5.50	✗ lost
Kevin Christian wins by finish in Round 2	14%	8.50	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	64%	1.57	✓ won
Kevin Christian wins by Sub or Decision	25%	3.90	✗ lost
Over 2.5 rounds	36%	2.25	✗ lost
Kevin Christian wins by finish in Round 1	21%	3.80	✗ lost
Finish before Round 3	61%	1.28	✓ won
Fight ends before decision	67%	1.14	✓ won
Fight ends by KO/TKO	53%	1.44	✓ won
Fight ends by Submission	14%	4.60	✗ lost
Junior Tafa wins	45%	1.43	✓ won
Junior Tafa wins by KO or Decision	39%	1.47	✓ won
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	6%	8.50	✗ lost
Junior Tafa wins by KO or Sub	29%	1.65	✓ won
Kevin Christian wins by SUB	9%	5.20	✗ lost
Junior Tafa wins by KO/TKO	23%	1.72	✓ won
Junior Tafa wins by finish in Round 1	16%	1.83	✓ won

Gerald Meerschaert

37-22-0

Winner

Jacob Malkoun

Decision (U) · R3

✓ predicted

Jacob Malkoun

10-3-0

▼

Model Prediction

Gerald Meerschaert 35%

KO 5%· Sub 15%· Dec 12%

Jacob Malkoun ✓ won 65%

KO 18%· Sub 3%· Dec 47%

Dom Mar Fan

9-3-0

Winner

Kody Steele

SUB · R1

✗ wrong

Kody Steele

8-1-0

▼

Model Prediction

Dom Mar Fan 56%

KO 15%· Sub 9%· Dec 35%

Kody Steele ✓ won 44%

KO 10%· Sub 8%· Dec 23%

Beneil Dariush

23-8-1

Winner

Quillan Salkilld

KO/TKO · R1

✓ predicted

Quillan Salkilld

12-1-0

▼

Model Prediction

Beneil Dariush 17%

KO 4%· Sub 5%· Dec 8%

Quillan Salkilld ✓ won 83%

KO 36%· Sub 20%· Dec 27%

How the model read this fight

Outcome	Model prob	Odds	Result
Winner Quillan Salkilld wins	83%	1.24	✓ predicted
Method Quillan Salkilld wins by KO/TKO	36%	1.71	✓ predicted
Finish round Finish in Round 1	35%	—	✓ predicted

Every SportsBet market	Model prob	Odds	Bet result
Quillan Salkilld wins by Sub or Decision value	47%	4.10	✗ lost
Quillan Salkilld wins by DEC value	27%	7.00	✗ lost
Quillan Salkilld wins by Decision value	27%	6.50	✗ lost
Quillan Salkilld wins by SUB	20%	8.00	✗ lost
Fight goes to decision	35%	4.00	✗ lost
Fight ends by Submission	25%	5.60	✗ lost
Fight goes to Decision	35%	3.90	✗ lost
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision	46%	2.67	✗ lost
Fight reaches Round 2	65%	1.71	✗ lost
Under 2.5 rounds	60%	1.83	✓ won
Quillan Salkilld wins	83%	1.24	✓ won
Quillan Salkilld wins by finish in Round 2	17%	5.50	✗ lost
Quillan Salkilld wins by KO or Decision	63%	1.41	✓ won
Quillan Salkilld wins by KO or Sub	56%	1.45	✓ won
Fight ends before decision	65%	1.22	✓ won
Finish before Round 3	54%	1.44	✓ won
Over 2.5 rounds	40%	1.83	✗ lost
Beneil Dariush wins by Sub or Decision	13%	5.80	✗ lost
Quillan Salkilld wins by finish in Round 1	30%	2.37	✓ won
Beneil Dariush wins	17%	4.10	✗ lost
Fight ends by finish in Round 3	11%	6.50	✗ lost
Beneil Dariush wins by DEC	8%	8.50	✗ lost
Beneil Dariush wins by SUB	5%	14.00	✗ lost
Quillan Salkilld wins by KO/TKO	36%	1.71	✓ won
Beneil Dariush wins by KO or Decision	12%	4.90	✗ lost
Beneil Dariush wins by Decision	8%	7.50	✗ lost
Fight ends by KO/TKO	40%	1.49	✓ won
Beneil Dariush wins by KO or Sub	9%	6.25	✗ lost
Quillan Salkilld wins by finish in Round 1	30%	1.70	✓ won
Beneil Dariush wins by KO/TKO	4%	9.50	✗ lost
Beneil Dariush wins by finish in Round 1	5%	7.75	✗ lost