UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker

New here? How to read these predictions

Win probability: Our model's estimate that a fighter wins — e.g. 72% means we'd expect them to win roughly 7 of 10 times.
Confidence interval (CI): The range the true probability likely falls in. Wider = less certain. A pick'em fight has a wide band; a clear favourite a narrow one.
Edge: How much higher our probability is than the bookmaker's implied odds. Positive edge = we think it's underpriced.
EV (expected value): Average return if you placed the bet many times. +15% EV means about 15c profit per $1 staked, on average.
Risk tiers: Conservative leans to safe favourites, Balanced blends, Aggressive chases bigger-odds longshots. Pick what suits you.
Edge badges: Strong / Solid / Slight edge rank how much value the model sees — and how big a stake it suggests. They're not a promise the bet wins.

Tap any fight row to open the full model breakdown. New to the model itself? How it works · FAQ.

Main Event

61%

Model Leans Acosta

2026-11-08

UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker

2026

NOV

⚡ Next Event

Meta APEX, Las Vegas, USA

Bouts

Value Bouts

Johnny Walker

22-10-0 MMA Orthodox 1 win

SB 2.98

39% | 61%

Heavyweight 5 rds
⏱ Sun 8 Nov · 1:45 PM AEST

Waldo Cortes Acosta

17-3-0 Striker Orthodox 2-fight loss streak

SB 1.40

Model Favourite

Waldo Cortes Acosta

61.3 %

Market · 68% on Acosta · Moirai −7 pts

Confidence · High · sub-models agree closely

Why this pick

Waldo Cortes Acosta lands 1.1 more sig strikes per minute
Waldo Cortes Acosta stops 70% of takedown attempts, Johnny Walker 50%
the case against Johnny Walker eats 0.5 fewer strikes per minute
Waldo Cortes Acosta has never been finished in 14 fights

Method Breakdown

Walker Acosta

KO/TKO 24.3

36.3

Submission 4.3

1.4

Decision 10.0

23.7

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Key Stats career avg

Walker Acosta

Str/min 3.8

4.9

Sig Acc 54%

48%

Str Def 48%

55%

TD/min 0.02

0.02

Finish 71%

36%

Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL

Sig strikes

WalkerAcosta

Combined 96 22–175

Takedowns

0.0

0.1

WalkerAcosta

Combined 0.4 0.0–3.8

Fight length

Expected 2.8 of 5 rounds 34% chance it goes the distance

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours Walker

Johnny Walker eats 0.5 fewer strikes per minute
02 Striking volume favours Acosta

Waldo Cortes Acosta lands 1.1 more sig strikes per minute
03 Finish rate favours Walker

Johnny Walker finishes 71% of fights, Waldo Cortes Acosta 36%
04 Win streak favours Walker

Johnny Walker rides a 1-fight longer win streak
05 KO rate favours Walker

Johnny Walker wins by knockout in 65% of fights, Waldo Cortes Acosta in 36%
06 Takedown defence favours Acosta

Waldo Cortes Acosta stops 70% of takedown attempts, Johnny Walker 50%

Value Bets · Sportsbet 1 flagged · 75 markets analysed

Waldo Cortes Acosta wins by DEC
Strong edge

Priced at 25%

Break-even 16% fair 14%

EV / $100 +$59

Stake 2.8%

6.25

$28 of $1,000 returns $175

+$147 profit

Tatiana Suarez

13-1-0 MMA Southpaw 2-fight win streak

SB 1.48

59% | 41%

Women's Strawweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 8 Nov · 1:15 PM AEST

Virna Jandiroba

23-4-0 Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 1 win

SB 2.67

Model Favourite

Tatiana Suarez

59.2 %

Market · 64% on Suarez · Moirai −5 pts

Confidence · High · sub-models agree closely

Why this pick

Tatiana Suarez eats 1.2 fewer strikes per minute
Tatiana Suarez finishes 60% of fights, Virna Jandiroba 31%
Tatiana Suarez rides a 1-fight longer win streak
Virna Jandiroba has never been finished in 13 fights

Method Breakdown

Suarez Jandiroba

KO/TKO 8.6

6.5

Submission 6.6

12.7

Decision 44.0

21.6

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Key Stats career avg

Suarez Jandiroba

Str/min 2.9

2.3

Sig Acc 60%

41%

Str Def 44%

56%

TD/min 0.30

0.21

Finish 60%

31%

Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL

Sig strikes

SuarezJandiroba

Combined 69 21–126

Takedowns

1.7

0.8

SuarezJandiroba

Combined 2.8 0.0–5.6

Fight length

Expected 2.4 of 3 rounds 66% chance it goes the distance

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours Suarez

Tatiana Suarez eats 1.2 fewer strikes per minute
02 Finish rate favours Suarez

Tatiana Suarez finishes 60% of fights, Virna Jandiroba 31%
03 Win streak favours Suarez

Tatiana Suarez rides a 1-fight longer win streak
04 Striking volume favours Suarez

Tatiana Suarez lands 0.6 more sig strikes per minute
05 Submission rate favours Suarez

Tatiana Suarez wins by submission in 50% of fights, Virna Jandiroba in 23%
06 Striking accuracy favours Suarez

Tatiana Suarez lands 60% of significant strikes thrown, Virna Jandiroba 41%

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 53 markets analysed

No markets passed the value gate. 53 markets analysed.

Davey Grant

17-8-0 MMA Orthodox 1 win

SB 3.55

25% | 75%

Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 8 Nov · 12:45 PM AEST

Elijah Smith

10-1-0 Freestyle Orthodox 3-fight win streak

SB 1.30

Model Favourite

Elijah Smith

75.5 %

Market · 73% on Smith · Moirai +2 pts

Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter

Why this pick

Elijah Smith eats 2.3 fewer strikes per minute
Elijah Smith rides a 2-fight longer win streak
Elijah Smith wins by submission in 31% of fights, Davey Grant in 6%
the case against Davey Grant lands 1.9 more sig strikes per minute
Elijah Smith rides a 3-fight win streak (Davey Grant: 1)

Method Breakdown

Grant Smith

KO/TKO 9.9

16.6

Submission 3.8

29.2

Decision 10.8

29.6

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Key Stats career avg

Grant Smith

Str/min 5.6

3.7

Sig Acc 45%

53%

Str Def 55%

52%

TD/min 0.06

0.12

Finish 50%

64%

Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL

Sig strikes

GrantSmith

Combined 78 16–146

Takedowns

0.1

0.7

GrantSmith

Combined 1.5 0.0–4.6

Fight length

Expected 1.9 of 3 rounds 40% chance it goes the distance

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours Smith

Elijah Smith eats 2.3 fewer strikes per minute
02 Striking volume favours Grant

Davey Grant lands 1.9 more sig strikes per minute
03 Win streak favours Smith

Elijah Smith rides a 2-fight longer win streak
04 Submission rate favours Smith

Elijah Smith wins by submission in 31% of fights, Davey Grant in 6%
05 Takedown defence favours Grant

Davey Grant stops 65% of takedown attempts, Elijah Smith 46%
06 Finish rate favours Smith

Elijah Smith finishes 64% of fights, Davey Grant 50%

Value Bets · Sportsbet 4 flagged · 56 markets analysed

Elijah Smith wins by Submission in R1 or R2
Strong edge

Priced at 24%

Break-even 14%

EV / $100 +$67

Stake 2.8%

7.00

$28 of $1,000 returns $196

+$168 profit
Elijah Smith wins by SUB
Strong edge

Priced at 29%

Break-even 18% fair 15%

EV / $100 +$63

Stake 3.4%

5.70

$34 of $1,000 returns $194

+$160 profit
Fight ends by Submission
Strong edge

Priced at 33%

Break-even 22% fair 20%

EV / $100 +$50

Stake 3.5%

4.60

$35 of $1,000 returns $161

+$126 profit
Elijah Smith wins by Sub or Decision
Strong edge

Priced at 58%

Break-even 47%

EV / $100 +$24

Stake 5.2%

2.15

$52 of $1,000 returns $112

+$60 profit

Wellington Turman

18-8-0 Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 3-fight loss streak

SB 6.05

23% | 77%

Welterweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 8 Nov · 8:30 AM AEST

Seokhyeon Ko

13-2-0 Judo Southpaw 1 loss

SB 1.13

Model Favourite

Seokhyeon Ko

77.0 %

Market · 84% on Ko · Moirai −7 pts

Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter

Why this pick

Seokhyeon Ko eats 2.7 fewer strikes per minute
Wellington Turman is on a losing run 2 fight(s) longer than Seokhyeon Ko
Seokhyeon Ko hits 0.10 more takedowns per minute
the case against Wellington Turman finishes 44% of fights, Seokhyeon Ko 6%
layoff Turman hasn't fought since Dec 2023 — ring rust is hard to price, so the model widens its uncertainty here
Seokhyeon Ko has never been finished in 3 fights

Method Breakdown

Turman Ko

KO/TKO 2.5

12.6

Submission 5.3

7.5

Decision 15.2

56.9

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Key Stats career avg

Turman Ko

Str/min 3.2

3.0

Sig Acc 51%

49%

Str Def 45%

65%

TD/min 0.10

0.21

Finish 44%

Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL

Sig strikes

TurmanKo

Combined 60 18–117

Takedowns

0.5

1.9

TurmanKo

Combined 2.3 0.0–5.1

Fight length

Expected 2.5 of 3 rounds 72% chance it goes the distance

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours Ko

Seokhyeon Ko eats 2.7 fewer strikes per minute
02 Finish rate favours Turman

Wellington Turman finishes 44% of fights, Seokhyeon Ko 6%
03 KO rate favours Turman

Wellington Turman wins by knockout in 22% of fights, Seokhyeon Ko in 4%
04 Loss streak favours Ko

Wellington Turman is on a losing run 2 fight(s) longer than Seokhyeon Ko
05 Takedown volume favours Ko

Seokhyeon Ko hits 0.10 more takedowns per minute
06 Striking defence favours Ko

Seokhyeon Ko avoids 65% of strikes thrown at them, Wellington Turman 45%

Value Bets · Sportsbet 2 flagged · 55 markets analysed

Seokhyeon Ko wins by Decision
Strong edge

Priced at 60%

Break-even 38%

EV / $100 +$58

Stake 9.0%

2.62

$90 of $1,000 returns $236

+$146 profit
Seokhyeon Ko wins by DEC
Strong edge

Priced at 60%

Break-even 40% fair 34%

EV / $100 +$51

Stake 8.5%

2.50

$85 of $1,000 returns $212

+$128 profit

Billy Elekana

10-2-0 MMA Southpaw 3-fight win streak

SB 3.62

53% | 47%

Light Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 8 Nov · 12:15 PM AEST

Lucas Fernando

14-3-0 Striker 1 win

SB 1.29

Model Favourite

Billy Elekana

53.3 %

Market · 26% on Elekana · Moirai +27 pts

Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter

Why this pick

Billy Elekana is favoured at 53% — fight-history features sparse
Lucas Fernando has 1 UFC fight — too little to compare fight stats, so this pick leans on age, size and pre-UFC record

Method Breakdown

Elekana Fernando

KO/TKO 20.8

22.1

Submission 16.4

6.3

Decision 16.1

18.3

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Key Stats career avg

Elekana Fernando

Str/min 2.7

5.5

Sig Acc 56%

57%

Str Def 46%

77%

TD/min 0.06

0.02

Finish 75%

91%

Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL

Sig strikes

ElekanaFernando

Combined 53 14–128

Takedowns

0.3

0.1

ElekanaFernando

Combined 1.2 0.0–4.2

Fight length

Expected 1.8 of 3 rounds 34% chance it goes the distance

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Model lean favours Elekana

Billy Elekana is favoured at 53% — fight-history features sparse

Value Bets · Sportsbet 1 flagged · 56 markets analysed

Billy Elekana wins
Strong edge

Priced at 35%

Break-even 28% fair 26%

EV / $100 +$26

Stake 2.5%

3.62

$25 of $1,000 returns $90

+$66 profit

Andre Petroski

13-6-0 Freestyle Switch Stance 3-fight loss streak

SB 3.25

20% | 80%

Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 8 Nov · 8:55 AM AEST

Mantas Kondratavicius

9-1-0 MMA Orthodox 1 win

SB 1.35

Model Favourite

Mantas Kondratavicius

80.3 %

Market · 71% on Kondratavicius · Moirai +10 pts

Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter

Why this pick

Mantas Kondratavicius is favoured at 80% — fight-history features sparse
Mantas Kondratavicius has 1 UFC fight — too little to compare fight stats, so this pick leans on age, size and pre-UFC record

Method Breakdown

Petroski Kondratavicius

KO/TKO 2.1

36.5

Submission 6.1

9.9

Decision 11.5

33.9

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Key Stats career avg

Petroski Kondratavicius

Str/min 2.8

4.6

Sig Acc 49%

64%

Str Def 52%

56%

TD/min 0.21

0.13

Finish 54%

14%

Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL

Sig strikes

PetroskiKondratavicius

Combined 52 20–121

Takedowns

0.9

0.4

PetroskiKondratavicius

Combined 1.6 0.0–4.7

Fight length

Expected 2.0 of 3 rounds 45% chance it goes the distance

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Model lean favours Kondratavicius

Mantas Kondratavicius is favoured at 80% — fight-history features sparse

Value Bets · Sportsbet 3 flagged · 56 markets analysed

Mantas Kondratavicius wins in R3+ or by Decision
Strong edge

Priced at 42%

Break-even 14%

EV / $100 +$195

Stake 8.1%

7.00

$81 of $1,000 returns $567

+$486 profit
Mantas Kondratavicius wins by KO or Sub
Strong edge

Priced at 43%

Break-even 15%

EV / $100 +$190

Stake 8.3%

6.75

$83 of $1,000 returns $560

+$477 profit
Mantas Kondratavicius wins by DEC
Strong edge

Priced at 31%

Break-even 11% fair 10%

EV / $100 +$174

Stake 5.6%

8.75

$56 of $1,000 returns $490

+$434 profit

Thomas Petersen

11-4-0 Boxing Southpaw 1 loss

SB 1.58

47% | 53%

Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 8 Nov · 10:30 AM AEST

Gabriel Lorenco

1-0-0

SB 2.39

Model Favourite

Gabriel Lorenco

53.0 %

Market · 40% on Lorenco · Moirai +13 pts

Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter

Why this pick

Gabriel Lorenco is favoured at 53% — fight-history features sparse
Gabriel Lorenco has no UFC fights — too little to compare fight stats, so this pick leans on age, size and pre-UFC record

Method Breakdown

Petersen Lorenco

KO/TKO 18.9

27.3

Submission 9.7

8.1

Decision 18.5

17.6

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Key Stats career avg

Petersen Lorenco

Str/min 3.0

0.0

Sig Acc 58%

Str Def 56%

TD/min 0.17

0.00

Finish 43%

Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL

Sig strikes

PetersenLorenco

Combined 50 18–117

Takedowns

1.0

0.0

PetersenLorenco

Combined 1.3 0.0–4.6

Fight length

Expected 1.8 of 3 rounds 36% chance it goes the distance

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Model lean favours Lorenco

Gabriel Lorenco is favoured at 53% — fight-history features sparse

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 53 markets analysed

No markets passed the value gate. 53 markets analysed.

Karine Silva

19-7-0 Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 2-fight loss streak

SB 1.46

82% | 18%

Women's Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 8 Nov · 10:05 AM AEST

Gabriella Fernandes

11-4-0 Striker Southpaw 1 loss

SB 2.75

Model Favourite

Karine Silva

82.4 %

Market · 65% on Silva · Moirai +17 pts

Confidence · Medium · limited UFC data on at least one fighter

Why this pick

Karine Silva eats 2.7 fewer strikes per minute
Karine Silva wins by submission in 38% of fights, Gabriella Fernandes in 17%
Karine Silva hits 0.11 more takedowns per minute
the case against Gabriella Fernandes lands 1.2 more sig strikes per minute
Karine Silva has never been finished in 8 fights

Method Breakdown

Silva Fernandes

KO/TKO 29.5

3.6

Submission 10.6

2.5

Decision 42.3

11.5

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Key Stats career avg

Silva Fernandes

Str/min 2.3

3.5

Sig Acc 40%

47%

Str Def 54%

53%

TD/min 0.14

0.03

Finish 38%

33%

Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL

Sig strikes

SilvaFernandes

Combined 76 19–130

Takedowns

0.9

0.0

SilvaFernandes

Combined 1.8 0.0–4.8

Fight length

Expected 2.1 of 3 rounds 54% chance it goes the distance

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Strikes absorbed favours Silva

Karine Silva eats 2.7 fewer strikes per minute
02 Striking volume favours Fernandes

Gabriella Fernandes lands 1.2 more sig strikes per minute
03 Takedown defence favours Fernandes

Gabriella Fernandes stops 69% of takedown attempts, Karine Silva 29%
04 Submission rate favours Silva

Karine Silva wins by submission in 38% of fights, Gabriella Fernandes in 17%
05 KO rate favours Fernandes

Gabriella Fernandes wins by knockout in 17% of fights, Karine Silva in 0%
06 Takedown volume favours Silva

Karine Silva hits 0.11 more takedowns per minute

Value Bets · Sportsbet 4 flagged · 56 markets analysed

Karine Silva wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2
Strong edge

Priced at 22%

Break-even 9%

EV / $100 +$139

Stake 3.5%

11.00

$35 of $1,000 returns $385

+$350 profit
Karine Silva wins by KO/TKO
Strong edge

Priced at 26%

Break-even 11% fair 10%

EV / $100 +$126

Stake 4.1%

8.75

$41 of $1,000 returns $359

+$318 profit
Fight ends by KO/TKO
Strong edge

Priced at 32%

Break-even 18% fair 16%

EV / $100 +$76

Stake 4.2%

5.60

$42 of $1,000 returns $235

+$193 profit
Karine Silva wins by KO or Decision
Strong edge

Priced at 63%

Break-even 46%

EV / $100 +$37

Stake 7.9%

2.18

$79 of $1,000 returns $172

+$93 profit

Mitch Raposo

10-3-0 Freestyle Switch Stance 2-fight win streak

SB 2.86

73% | 27%

Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 8 Nov · 11:15 AM AEST

Marcos Degli

1-0-0

SB 1.43

Model Favourite

Mitch Raposo

73.2 %

Market · 33% on Raposo · Moirai +40 pts

Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter

Why this pick

Mitch Raposo is favoured at 73% — fight-history features sparse
Marcos Degli has no UFC fights — too little to compare fight stats, so this pick leans on age, size and pre-UFC record

Method Breakdown

Raposo Degli

KO/TKO 21.9

5.0

Submission 21.1

5.6

Decision 30.1

16.2

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Key Stats career avg

Raposo Degli

Str/min 1.8

0.0

Sig Acc 42%

Str Def 61%

TD/min 0.12

0.00

Finish 0%

Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL

Sig strikes

RaposoDegli

Combined 58 18–124

Takedowns

1.4

0.0

RaposoDegli

Combined 1.5 0.0–4.9

Fight length

Expected 2.0 of 3 rounds 46% chance it goes the distance

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Model lean favours Raposo

Mitch Raposo is favoured at 73% — fight-history features sparse

Value Bets · Sportsbet 1 flagged · 56 markets analysed

Mitch Raposo wins by Sub or Decision
Strong edge

Priced at 33%

Break-even 24%

EV / $100 +$40

Stake 3.1%

4.20

$31 of $1,000 returns $130

+$99 profit

Jose Delano

17-3-0 Striker Orthodox 1 win

SB 1.87

11% | 89%

Featherweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 8 Nov · 9:40 AM AEST

Murtazali Magomedov

1-0-0 Orthodox 1 win

SB 1.97

Model Favourite

Murtazali Magomedov

88.9 %

Market · 49% on Magomedov · Moirai +40 pts

Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter

Why this pick

Murtazali Magomedov is favoured at 89% — fight-history features sparse
Jose Delano has 1 UFC fight — too little to compare fight stats, so this pick leans on age, size and pre-UFC record

Method Breakdown

Delano Magomedov

KO/TKO 3.3

6.8

Submission 0.4

23.1

Decision 7.3

59.0

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Key Stats career avg

Delano Magomedov

Str/min 6.3

3.9

Sig Acc 58%

71%

Str Def 66%

77%

TD/min 0.03

0.78

Finish 11%

100%

Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL

Sig strikes

DelanoMagomedov

Combined 78 16–146

Takedowns

0.1

1.7

DelanoMagomedov

Combined 2.1 0.0–5.3

Fight length

Expected 2.4 of 3 rounds 66% chance it goes the distance

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Model lean favours Magomedov

Murtazali Magomedov is favoured at 89% — fight-history features sparse

Value Bets · Sportsbet 5 flagged · 56 markets analysed

Murtazali Magomedov wins by DEC
Strong edge

Priced at 44%

Break-even 19% fair 16%

EV / $100 +$135

Stake 7.8%

5.30

$78 of $1,000 returns $413

+$335 profit
Murtazali Magomedov wins by Decision
Strong edge

Priced at 44%

Break-even 20%

EV / $100 +$121

Stake 7.6%

5.00

$76 of $1,000 returns $380

+$304 profit
Murtazali Magomedov wins by Sub or Decision
Strong edge

Priced at 62%

Break-even 39%

EV / $100 +$57

Stake 9.2%

2.55

$92 of $1,000 returns $235

+$143 profit
Murtazali Magomedov wins by KO or Decision
Strong edge

Priced at 49%

Break-even 32%

EV / $100 +$53

Stake 6.3%

3.10

$63 of $1,000 returns $195

+$132 profit
Murtazali Magomedov wins
Strong edge

Priced at 67%

Break-even 51% fair 49%

EV / $100 +$31

Stake 8.1%

1.97

$81 of $1,000 returns $160

+$79 profit

Keiichiro Nakamura

8-1-0 Striker Southpaw 1 win

SB 1.26

62% | 38%

Featherweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 8 Nov · 10:50 AM AEST

Ollie Schmid

4-3-0 Striker 1 loss

SB 3.90

Model Favourite

Keiichiro Nakamura

62.0 %

Market · 76% on Nakamura · Moirai −14 pts

Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter

Why this pick

Keiichiro Nakamura is favoured at 62% — fight-history features sparse
Keiichiro Nakamura has 1 UFC fight — too little to compare fight stats, so this pick leans on age, size and pre-UFC record

Method Breakdown

Nakamura Schmid

KO/TKO 25.1

9.5

Submission 6.6

9.2

Decision 30.3

19.3

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Key Stats career avg

Nakamura Schmid

Str/min 3.4

3.4

Sig Acc 39%

33%

Str Def 61%

45%

TD/min 0.03

0.03

Finish 87%

87%

Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL

Sig strikes

NakamuraSchmid

Combined 77 15–142

Takedowns

0.0

0.1

NakamuraSchmid

Combined 1.3 0.0–4.7

Fight length

Expected 2.1 of 3 rounds 50% chance it goes the distance

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Model lean favours Nakamura

Keiichiro Nakamura is favoured at 62% — fight-history features sparse

Value Bets · Sportsbet 3 flagged · 55 markets analysed

Keiichiro Nakamura wins by DEC
Strong edge

Priced at 35%

Break-even 16% fair 14%

EV / $100 +$118

Stake 5.6%

6.25

$56 of $1,000 returns $350

+$294 profit
Keiichiro Nakamura wins by Decision
Strong edge

Priced at 35%

Break-even 17%

EV / $100 +$109

Stake 5.5%

6.00

$54 of $1,000 returns $324

+$270 profit
Keiichiro Nakamura wins by Sub or Decision
Strong edge

Priced at 42%

Break-even 22%

EV / $100 +$95

Stake 6.6%

4.60

$66 of $1,000 returns $304

+$238 profit

Lucas Brennan

11-3-0 Grappler Southpaw 1 loss

31% | 69%

Featherweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 8 Nov · 8:00 AM AEST

Austin Bashi

14-1-0 Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 1 loss

Model Favourite

Austin Bashi

69.0 %

Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter

Why this pick

Austin Bashi is favoured at 69% — fight-history features sparse
Lucas Brennan has 1 UFC fight — too little to compare fight stats, so this pick leans on age, size and pre-UFC record

Method Breakdown

Brennan Bashi

KO/TKO 2.9

9.1

Submission 10.9

25.2

Decision 17.3

34.7

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Key Stats career avg

Brennan Bashi

Str/min 0.6

1.9

Sig Acc 25%

40%

Str Def 52%

54%

TD/min 0.00

0.20

Finish 0%

35%

Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL

Sig strikes

BrennanBashi

Combined 51 17–117

Takedowns

0.3

2.0

BrennanBashi

Combined 2.6 0.0–6.0

Fight length

Expected 2.1 of 3 rounds 52% chance it goes the distance

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Model lean favours Bashi

Austin Bashi is favoured at 69% — fight-history features sparse

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed

Sportsbet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.

Priscila Cachoeira

13-8-0 Brawler Orthodox 3-fight loss streak

SB 4.75

19% | 81%

Women's Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 8 Nov · 11:45 AM AEST

Nina Milosevic

9-1-0 Freestyle 1 win

SB 1.19

Model Favourite

Nina Milosevic

80.6 %

Market · 80% on Milosevic · Moirai +1 pts

Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter

Why this pick

Nina Milosevic is favoured at 81% — fight-history features sparse
Nina Milosevic has 1 UFC fight — too little to compare fight stats, so this pick leans on age, size and pre-UFC record

Method Breakdown

Cachoeira Milosevic

KO/TKO 7.3

38.8

Submission 0.6

9.4

Decision 11.5

32.4

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Key Stats career avg

Cachoeira Milosevic

Str/min 4.3

5.2

Sig Acc 44%

52%

Str Def 46%

73%

TD/min 0.02

0.02

Finish 71%

85%

Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL

Sig strikes

CachoeiraMilosevic

Combined 70 17–168

Takedowns

0.0

CachoeiraMilosevic

Combined 0.9 0.0–4.1

Fight length

Expected 1.9 of 3 rounds 44% chance it goes the distance

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Model lean favours Milosevic

Nina Milosevic is favoured at 81% — fight-history features sparse

Value Bets · Sportsbet 3 flagged · 55 markets analysed

Nina Milosevic wins by DEC
Strong edge

Priced at 32%

Break-even 17% fair 15%

EV / $100 +$87

Stake 4.5%

5.80

$45 of $1,000 returns $261

+$216 profit
Nina Milosevic wins by Decision
Strong edge

Priced at 32%

Break-even 18%

EV / $100 +$77

Stake 4.3%

5.50

$43 of $1,000 returns $236

+$194 profit
Nina Milosevic wins by KO or Decision
Strong edge

Priced at 71%

Break-even 52%

EV / $100 +$37

Stake 9.9%

1.94

$99 of $1,000 returns $192

+$93 profit

Jonny Parsons

9-3-0 Muay Thai Orthodox 1 win

61% | 39%

Welterweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 8 Nov · 8:00 AM AEST

Jose Henrique

0-1-0

Model Favourite

Jonny Parsons

60.8 %

Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter

Why this pick

Jonny Parsons is favoured at 61% — fight-history features sparse
Jonny Parsons has 1 UFC fight — too little to compare fight stats, so this pick leans on age, size and pre-UFC record

Method Breakdown

Parsons Henrique

KO/TKO 25.2

11.4

Submission 12.3

9.0

Decision 23.3

18.8

Finish Distribution · By Round

DEC

Key Stats career avg

Parsons Henrique

Str/min 5.6

0.0

Sig Acc 49%

Str Def 67%

TD/min 0.02

0.00

Finish 88%

Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL

Sig strikes

ParsonsHenrique

Combined 56 16–139

Takedowns

0.1

0.0

ParsonsHenrique

Combined 1.4 0.0–4.6

Fight length

Expected 1.8 of 3 rounds 42% chance it goes the distance

Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP

01 Model lean favours Parsons

Jonny Parsons is favoured at 61% — fight-history features sparse

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed

Sportsbet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.

Top Value Bets

Top Value Bets · 51

Bankroll $

#01

$-- SKIP

Mantas Kondratavicius wins by Submission in R2 or R3

Method + Round

Andre Petroski vs Mantas Kondratavicius · UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker

Model

Book

+0.0% NEG EV

71.00× Odds

$-- To Win

#02

$-- BET

Mantas Kondratavicius wins in R3+ or by Decision

Winning Round

Andre Petroski vs Mantas Kondratavicius · UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker

Model

42%

Book

14%

+0.0% EXPECTED VALUE +27.9 pts edge

7.00× Odds

$-- To Win

#03

$-- BET

Mantas Kondratavicius wins by KO or Sub

Method Combo

Andre Petroski vs Mantas Kondratavicius · UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker

Model

43%

Book

15%

+0.0% EXPECTED VALUE +28.2 pts edge

6.75× Odds

$-- To Win

#04

$-- BET

Mantas Kondratavicius wins by DEC

Method

Andre Petroski vs Mantas Kondratavicius · UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker

Model

31%

Book

11%

+0.0% EXPECTED VALUE +19.9 pts edge

8.75× Odds

$-- To Win

#05

$-- BET

Karine Silva wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2

Method + Round

Karine Silva vs Gabriella Fernandes · UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker

Model

22%

Book

+0.0% EXPECTED VALUE +12.6 pts edge

11.00× Odds

$-- To Win

#06

$-- BET

Murtazali Magomedov wins by DEC

Method

Jose Delano vs Murtazali Magomedov · UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker

Model

44%

Book

19%

+0.0% EXPECTED VALUE +25.4 pts edge

5.30× Odds

$-- To Win

#07

$-- SKIP

Karine Silva wins by KO/TKO in R1

Method + Round

Karine Silva vs Gabriella Fernandes · UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker

Model

14%

Book

+0.0% NEG EV

17.00× Odds

$-- To Win

#08

$-- BET

Karine Silva wins by KO/TKO

Method

Karine Silva vs Gabriella Fernandes · UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker

Model

26%

Book

11%

+0.0% EXPECTED VALUE +14.4 pts edge

8.75× Odds

$-- To Win

#09

$-- BET

Murtazali Magomedov wins by Decision

Winning Round

Jose Delano vs Murtazali Magomedov · UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker

Model

44%

Book

20%

+0.0% EXPECTED VALUE +24.3 pts edge

5.00× Odds

$-- To Win

#10

$-- BET

Keiichiro Nakamura wins by DEC

Method

Keiichiro Nakamura vs Ollie Schmid · UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker

Model

35%

Book

16%

+0.0% EXPECTED VALUE +18.8 pts edge

6.25× Odds

$-- To Win

#11

$-- BET

Keiichiro Nakamura wins by Decision

Winning Round

Keiichiro Nakamura vs Ollie Schmid · UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker

Model

35%

Book

17%

+0.0% EXPECTED VALUE +18.2 pts edge

6.00× Odds

$-- To Win

#12

$-- SKIP

Mitch Raposo wins by Submission in R1 or R2

Method + Round

Mitch Raposo vs Marcos Degli · UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker

Model

12%

Book

+0.0% NEG EV

17.00× Odds

$-- To Win

#13

$-- SKIP

Mitch Raposo wins by Submission in R1

Method + Round

Mitch Raposo vs Marcos Degli · UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker

Model

Book

+0.0% NEG EV

26.00× Odds

$-- To Win

#14

$-- BET

Keiichiro Nakamura wins by Sub or Decision

Method Combo

Keiichiro Nakamura vs Ollie Schmid · UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker

Model

42%

Book

22%

+0.0% EXPECTED VALUE +20.7 pts edge

4.60× Odds

$-- To Win

#15

$-- BET

Nina Milosevic wins by DEC

Method

Priscila Cachoeira vs Nina Milosevic · UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker

Model

32%

Book

17%

+0.0% EXPECTED VALUE +15.0 pts edge

5.80× Odds

$-- To Win

#16

$-- SKIP

Karine Silva wins by KO/TKO in R2

Method + Round

Karine Silva vs Gabriella Fernandes · UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker

Model

Book

+0.0% NEG EV

23.00× Odds

$-- To Win

#17

$-- SKIP

Mitch Raposo wins by SUB

Method

Mitch Raposo vs Marcos Degli · UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker

Model

14%

Book

+0.0% NEG EV

13.00× Odds

$-- To Win

#18

$-- BET

Nina Milosevic wins by Decision

Winning Round

Priscila Cachoeira vs Nina Milosevic · UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker

Model

32%

Book

18%

+0.0% EXPECTED VALUE +14.0 pts edge

5.50× Odds

$-- To Win

#19

$-- BET

Fight ends by KO/TKO

Method

Karine Silva vs Gabriella Fernandes · UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker

Model

32%

Book

18%

+0.0% EXPECTED VALUE +13.6 pts edge

5.60× Odds

$-- To Win

#20

$-- SKIP

Karine Silva wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3

Method + Round

Karine Silva vs Gabriella Fernandes · UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker

Model

12%

Book

+0.0% NEG EV

14.00× Odds

$-- To Win

#21

$-- BET

Elijah Smith wins by Submission in R1 or R2

Method + Round

Davey Grant vs Elijah Smith · UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker

Model

24%

Book

14%

+0.0% EXPECTED VALUE +9.6 pts edge

7.00× Odds

$-- To Win

#22

$-- BET

Elijah Smith wins by SUB

Method

Davey Grant vs Elijah Smith · UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker

Model

29%

Book

18%

+0.0% EXPECTED VALUE +11.1 pts edge

5.70× Odds

$-- To Win

#23

$-- SKIP

Elijah Smith wins by Submission in R1

Method + Round

Davey Grant vs Elijah Smith · UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker

Model

15%

Book

+0.0% NEG EV

11.00× Odds

$-- To Win

#24

$-- SKIP

Billy Elekana wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2

Method + Round

Billy Elekana vs Lucas Fernando · UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker

Model

11%

Book

+0.0% NEG EV

14.00× Odds

$-- To Win

#25

$-- BET

Waldo Cortes Acosta wins by DEC

Method

Johnny Walker vs Waldo Cortes Acosta · UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker

Model

25%

Book

16%

+0.0% EXPECTED VALUE +9.4 pts edge

6.25× Odds

$-- To Win

#26

$-- BET

Seokhyeon Ko wins by Decision

Winning Round

Wellington Turman vs Seokhyeon Ko · UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker

Model

60%

Book

38%

+0.0% EXPECTED VALUE +22.3 pts edge

2.62× Odds

$-- To Win

#27

$-- BET

Murtazali Magomedov wins by Sub or Decision

Method Combo

Jose Delano vs Murtazali Magomedov · UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker

Model

62%

Book

39%

+0.0% EXPECTED VALUE +22.4 pts edge

2.55× Odds

$-- To Win

#28

$-- BET

Murtazali Magomedov wins by KO or Decision

Method Combo

Jose Delano vs Murtazali Magomedov · UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker

Model

49%

Book

32%

+0.0% EXPECTED VALUE +17.1 pts edge

3.10× Odds

$-- To Win

#29

$-- BET

Seokhyeon Ko wins by DEC

Method

Wellington Turman vs Seokhyeon Ko · UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker

Model

60%

Book

40%

+0.0% EXPECTED VALUE +20.5 pts edge

2.50× Odds

$-- To Win

#30

$-- BET

Fight ends by Submission

Method

Davey Grant vs Elijah Smith · UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker

Model

33%

Book

22%

+0.0% EXPECTED VALUE +11.0 pts edge

4.60× Odds

$-- To Win

#31

$-- BET

Mitch Raposo wins by Sub or Decision

Method Combo

Mitch Raposo vs Marcos Degli · UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker

Model

33%

Book

24%

+0.0% EXPECTED VALUE +9.5 pts edge

4.20× Odds

$-- To Win

#32

$-- SKIP

Mitch Raposo wins by KO or Sub

Method Combo

Mitch Raposo vs Marcos Degli · UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker

Model

28%

Book

20%

+0.0% NEG EV

5.00× Odds

$-- To Win

#33

$-- SKIP

Over 2.5 rounds

Total Rounds

Jose Delano vs Murtazali Magomedov · UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker

Model

69%

Book

50%

+0.0% NEG EV

2.00× Odds

$-- To Win

#34

$-- SKIP

Over 2.5 rounds

Total Rounds

Wellington Turman vs Seokhyeon Ko · UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker

Model

75%

Book

55%

+0.0% NEG EV

1.83× Odds

$-- To Win

#35

$-- BET

Nina Milosevic wins by KO or Decision

Method Combo

Priscila Cachoeira vs Nina Milosevic · UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker

Model

71%

Book

52%

+0.0% EXPECTED VALUE +19.3 pts edge

1.94× Odds

$-- To Win

#36

$-- BET

Karine Silva wins by KO or Decision

Method Combo

Karine Silva vs Gabriella Fernandes · UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker

Model

63%

Book

46%

+0.0% EXPECTED VALUE +17.0 pts edge

2.18× Odds

$-- To Win

#37

$-- SKIP

Waldo Cortes Acosta wins by Sub or Decision

Method Combo

Johnny Walker vs Waldo Cortes Acosta · UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker

Model

27%

Book

20%

+0.0% NEG EV

5.10× Odds

$-- To Win

#38

$-- SKIP

Mitch Raposo wins

Moneyline

Mitch Raposo vs Marcos Degli · UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker

Model

48%

Book

35%

+0.0% NEG EV

2.86× Odds

$-- To Win

#39

$-- SKIP

Over 2.5 rounds

Total Rounds

Andre Petroski vs Mantas Kondratavicius · UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker

Model

52%

Book

38%

+0.0% NEG EV

2.62× Odds

$-- To Win

#40

$-- SKIP

Billy Elekana wins by KO or Sub

Method Combo

Billy Elekana vs Lucas Fernando · UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker

Model

24%

Book

18%

+0.0% NEG EV

5.50× Odds

$-- To Win

#41

$-- BET

Murtazali Magomedov wins

Moneyline

Jose Delano vs Murtazali Magomedov · UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker

Model

67%

Book

51%

+0.0% EXPECTED VALUE +15.9 pts edge

1.97× Odds

$-- To Win

#42

$-- SKIP

Mitch Raposo wins by finish in Round 1

Winning Round

Mitch Raposo vs Marcos Degli · UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker

Model

15%

Book

12%

+0.0% NEG EV

8.50× Odds

$-- To Win

#43

$-- BET

Billy Elekana wins

Moneyline

Billy Elekana vs Lucas Fernando · UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker

Model

35%

Book

28%

+0.0% EXPECTED VALUE +7.2 pts edge

3.62× Odds

$-- To Win

#44

$-- SKIP

Mitch Raposo wins in R3+ or by Decision

Winning Round

Mitch Raposo vs Marcos Degli · UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker

Model

28%

Book

22%

+0.0% NEG EV

4.50× Odds

$-- To Win

#45

$-- BET

Elijah Smith wins by Sub or Decision

Method Combo

Davey Grant vs Elijah Smith · UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker

Model

58%

Book

47%

+0.0% EXPECTED VALUE +11.2 pts edge

2.15× Odds

$-- To Win

#46

$-- SKIP

Nina Milosevic wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2

Method + Round

Priscila Cachoeira vs Nina Milosevic · UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker

Model

35%

Book

29%

+0.0% NEG EV

3.50× Odds

$-- To Win

#47

$-- SKIP

Waldo Cortes Acosta wins in R4+ or by Decision

Winning Round

Johnny Walker vs Waldo Cortes Acosta · UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker

Model

31%

Book

26%

+0.0% NEG EV

3.80× Odds

$-- To Win

#48

$-- SKIP

Nina Milosevic wins by KO/TKO in R1

Method + Round

Priscila Cachoeira vs Nina Milosevic · UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker

Model

23%

Book

20%

+0.0% NEG EV

5.10× Odds

$-- To Win

#49

$-- SKIP

Ollie Schmid wins

Moneyline

Keiichiro Nakamura vs Ollie Schmid · UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker

Model

29%

Book

26%

+0.0% NEG EV

3.90× Odds

$-- To Win

#50

$-- SKIP

Over 2.5 rounds

Total Rounds

Johnny Walker vs Waldo Cortes Acosta · UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker

Model

50%

Book

45%

+0.0% NEG EV

2.20× Odds

$-- To Win

#51

$-- SKIP

Karine Silva wins

Moneyline

Karine Silva vs Gabriella Fernandes · UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker

Model

72%

Book

68%

+0.0% NEG EV

1.46× Odds

$-- To Win