Updated 2026-06-18 01:38 AEST
9
Bouts
0
Events
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Win probability
Our model's estimate that a fighter wins — e.g. 72% means we'd expect them to win roughly 7 of 10 times.
Confidence interval (CI)
The range the true probability likely falls in. Wider = less certain. A pick'em fight has a wide band; a clear favourite a narrow one.
Edge
How much higher our probability is than the bookmaker's implied odds. Positive edge = we think it's underpriced.
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Khalil Rountree Jr.
Jr.
Main Event
84%
model leans Ankalaev
2026-07-25
Magomed Ankalaev
Ankalaev
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Rountree Jr.
2026
25
JUL
⚡ Next Event

UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Rountree Jr.

Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
9
Bouts
Khalil Rountree Jr.
Khalil Rountree Jr.
United States 15-7-0 MMA Southpaw 1 loss
16% | 84%
Light Heavyweight 5 rds
⏱ Sun 26 Jul · 2:00 AM AEST
Magomed Ankalaev
Magomed Ankalaev
Russia 21-2-1 MMA Orthodox 1 loss
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Magomed Ankalaev
84.5 %
050100
90% CI · 54 – 98 · σ 0.065 · High
Why this pick
  • Magomed Ankalaev eats 1.7 fewer strikes per minute
  • Khalil Rountree Jr. finishes 17% more of their wins
  • Khalil Rountree Jr. finishes by KO 17% more often
  • Khalil Rountree Jr. has never been finished in 18 fights
  • Khalil Rountree Jr. KOs 61% of opponents — Magomed Ankalaev has been KO'd in 6% of losses
Method Breakdown
Jr. Ankalaev
KO/TKO 11.6
44.1
Submission 2.0
1.9
Decision 2.0
38.4
Finish Distribution · By Round
24
R1
18
R2
9
R3
6
R4
3
R5
40
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Jr. Ankalaev
Str/min 3.9
3.7
Sig Acc 41%
53%
Str Def 50%
56%
TD/min 0.00
0.05
Finish 67%
50%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
  • Sig strikes
    41
    45
    9–103 10–118
  • Sig strikes (combined) 97 19–210
  • Takedowns
    0.0
    0.2
    0.0–1.0 0.0–1.9
  • Takedowns (combined) 0.6 0.0–3.7
  • Knockdowns (combined) 0.0 0.0–0.0
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Ankalaev

    Magomed Ankalaev eats 1.7 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Finish rate favours Jr.

    Khalil Rountree Jr. finishes 17% more of their wins

  • 03 KO rate favours Jr.

    Khalil Rountree Jr. finishes by KO 17% more often

  • 04 Takedown defence favours Ankalaev

    Magomed Ankalaev stuffs 29% more incoming takedowns

  • 05 Striking accuracy favours Ankalaev

    Magomed Ankalaev is 12% more accurate on the feet

  • 06 Striking volume favours Jr.

    Khalil Rountree Jr. lands 0.2 more sig strikes per minute

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Dustin Jacoby
Dustin Jacoby
United States 22-9-1 Freestyle Orthodox 3-fight win streak
70% | 30%
Light Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sat 25 Jul · 11:00 PM AEST
Uran Satybaldiev
Uran Satybaldiev
Kyrgyzstan 8-1-0 MMA Orthodox 1 win
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Dustin Jacoby
70.5 %
050100
90% CI · 40 – 98 · σ 0.062 · High
Why this pick
  • Dustin Jacoby lands 3.7 more sig strikes per minute
  • Dustin Jacoby rides a 2-fight longer win streak
  • Uran Satybaldiev eats 0.5 fewer strikes per minute
  • Dustin Jacoby out-volumes opponents at 5.4 sig/min vs Uran Satybaldiev's 1.8
  • Dustin Jacoby rides a 3-fight win streak (Uran Satybaldiev: 1)
Method Breakdown
Jacoby Satybaldiev
KO/TKO 32.8
7.0
Submission 3.1
8.6
Decision 34.5
14.0
Finish Distribution · By Round
27
R1
16
R2
9
R3
0
R4
0
R5
49
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Jacoby Satybaldiev
Str/min 5.4
1.8
Sig Acc 46%
21%
Str Def 58%
45%
TD/min 0.02
0.00
Finish 53%
41%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
  • Sig strikes
    42
    27
    8–87 6–71
  • Sig strikes (combined) 80 19–158
  • Takedowns
    0.0
    0.2
    0.0–1.9 0.0–1.9
  • Takedowns (combined) 0.7 0.0–3.8
  • Knockdowns (combined) 0.0 0.0–0.0
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Jacoby

    Dustin Jacoby lands 3.7 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Jacoby

    Dustin Jacoby rides a 2-fight longer win streak

  • 03 Strikes absorbed favours Satybaldiev

    Uran Satybaldiev eats 0.5 fewer strikes per minute

  • 04 KO rate favours Jacoby

    Dustin Jacoby finishes by KO 47% more often

  • 05 Submission rate favours Satybaldiev

    Uran Satybaldiev taps opponents 41% more often

  • 06 Striking accuracy favours Jacoby

    Dustin Jacoby is 25% more accurate on the feet

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
David Martinez
David Martinez
Mexico 14-1-0 Orthodox 3-fight win streak
19% | 81%
Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 26 Jul · 2:00 AM AEST
Umar Nurmagomedov
Umar Nurmagomedov
Russia 20-1-0 MMA Orthodox 2-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Umar Nurmagomedov
81.1 %
050100
90% CI · 51 – 98 · σ 0.063 · High
Why this pick
  • Umar Nurmagomedov eats 1.0 fewer strikes per minute
  • David Martinez rides a 1-fight longer win streak
  • Umar Nurmagomedov hits 0.22 more takedowns per minute
  • Umar Nurmagomedov has never been finished in 9 fights
  • David Martinez has never been finished in 3 fights
Method Breakdown
Martinez Nurmagomedov
KO/TKO 7.0
8.4
Submission 1.5
7.4
Decision 10.3
65.3
Finish Distribution · By Round
12
R1
8
R2
4
R3
0
R4
1
R5
76
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Martinez Nurmagomedov
Str/min 4.1
3.9
Sig Acc 40%
56%
Str Def 70%
61%
TD/min 0.05
0.27
Finish 29%
33%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
  • Sig strikes
    34
    44
    8–71 10–73
  • Sig strikes (combined) 82 21–132
  • Takedowns
    0.0
    1.7
    0.0–1.2 0.0–3.5
  • Takedowns (combined) 2.0 0.0–4.6
  • Knockdowns (combined) 0.0 0.0–0.0
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Nurmagomedov

    Umar Nurmagomedov eats 1.0 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Martinez

    David Martinez rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 03 Takedown volume favours Nurmagomedov

    Umar Nurmagomedov hits 0.22 more takedowns per minute

  • 04 Submission rate favours Nurmagomedov

    Umar Nurmagomedov taps opponents 22% more often

  • 05 Striking accuracy favours Nurmagomedov

    Umar Nurmagomedov is 16% more accurate on the feet

  • 06 KO rate favours Martinez

    David Martinez finishes by KO 18% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Rizvan Kuniev
Rizvan Kuniev
Russia 12-3-1 Orthodox 1 win
28% | 72%
Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 26 Jul · 2:00 AM AEST
Tyrell Fortune
Tyrell Fortune
United States 18-3-0 nan 1 win
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Tyrell Fortune
71.7 %
050100
90% CI · 42 – 98 · σ 0.044 · High
Why this pick
  • Rizvan Kuniev lands 0.9 more sig strikes per minute
  • Tyrell Fortune hits 0.20 more takedowns per minute
  • Rizvan Kuniev eats 0.2 fewer strikes per minute
  • Rizvan Kuniev has never been finished in 2 fights
  • Tyrell Fortune has never been finished in 1 fights
Method Breakdown
Kuniev Fortune
KO/TKO 8.0
18.4
Submission 3.2
4.3
Decision 17.0
49.0
Finish Distribution · By Round
18
R1
10
R2
6
R3
0
R4
0
R5
66
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Kuniev Fortune
Str/min 2.9
2.0
Sig Acc 44%
51%
Str Def 46%
57%
TD/min 0.00
0.20
Finish 0%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
  • Sig strikes
    22
    29
    6–65 8–64
  • Sig strikes (combined) 55 18–117
  • Takedowns
    0.3
    0.9
    0.0–1.3 0.0–3.2
  • Takedowns (combined) 1.5 0.0–4.6
  • Knockdowns (combined) 0.0 0.0–0.0
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Kuniev

    Rizvan Kuniev lands 0.9 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Takedown volume favours Fortune

    Tyrell Fortune hits 0.20 more takedowns per minute

  • 03 Strikes absorbed favours Kuniev

    Rizvan Kuniev eats 0.2 fewer strikes per minute

  • 04 Striking accuracy favours Fortune

    Tyrell Fortune is 7% more accurate on the feet

  • 05 Striking defence favours Fortune

    Tyrell Fortune avoids 11% more incoming strikes

  • 06 Takedown defence favours Fortune

    Tyrell Fortune stuffs 9% more incoming takedowns

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Thomas Petersen
Thomas Petersen
United States 11-4-0 Boxer Southpaw 1 win
31% | 69%
Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 26 Jul · 2:00 AM AEST
Valter Walker
Valter Walker
Brazil 15-1-0 MMA Orthodox 4-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Valter Walker
68.8 %
050100
90% CI · 39 – 98 · σ 0.047 · High
Why this pick
  • Valter Walker rides a 3-fight longer win streak
  • Valter Walker taps opponents 80% more often
  • Valter Walker finishes 47% more of their wins
  • Valter Walker rides a 4-fight win streak (Thomas Petersen: 1)
  • Valter Walker has never been finished in 5 fights
Method Breakdown
Petersen Walker
KO/TKO 8.8
24.1
Submission 3.5
15.8
Decision 18.9
28.9
Finish Distribution · By Round
27
R1
17
R2
9
R3
0
R4
0
R5
48
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Petersen Walker
Str/min 3.1
2.0
Sig Acc 58%
52%
Str Def 56%
43%
TD/min 0.18
0.38
Finish 33%
80%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
  • Sig strikes
    21
    15
    3–56 5–52
  • Sig strikes (combined) 38 14–101
  • Takedowns
    0.8
    0.7
    0.0–2.7 0.0–2.9
  • Takedowns (combined) 2.0 0.0–5.1
  • Knockdowns (combined) 0.0 0.0–0.0
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Walker

    Valter Walker rides a 3-fight longer win streak

  • 02 Submission rate favours Walker

    Valter Walker taps opponents 80% more often

  • 03 Finish rate favours Walker

    Valter Walker finishes 47% more of their wins

  • 04 Striking volume favours Petersen

    Thomas Petersen lands 1.1 more sig strikes per minute

  • 05 KO rate favours Petersen

    Thomas Petersen finishes by KO 33% more often

  • 06 Takedown volume favours Walker

    Valter Walker hits 0.21 more takedowns per minute

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Brendson Ribeiro
Brendson Ribeiro
Brazil 17-10-0 Striker Orthodox 3-fight loss streak
44% | 56%
Light Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sat 25 Jul · 11:00 PM AEST
MT
Magomed Tuchalov
Russia 0-0-0 nan
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Magomed Tuchalov
55.6 %
050100
90% CI · 26 – 86 · σ 0.066 · High
Why this pick
  • Magomed Tuchalov comes in on a 3-fight cleaner skid
  • Brendson Ribeiro has a 7-fight UFC experience edge (7 vs 0)
  • Brendson Ribeiro has never been finished in 7 fights
Method Breakdown
Ribeiro Tuchalov
KO/TKO 14.3
28.1
Submission 11.8
9.1
Decision 18.4
18.5
Finish Distribution · By Round
37
R1
17
R2
9
R3
0
R4
0
R5
37
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Ribeiro Tuchalov
Str/min 2.6
0.0
Sig Acc 42%
0%
Str Def 51%
0%
TD/min 0.06
0.00
Finish 71%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
  • Sig strikes
    19
    24
    3–64 5–65
  • Sig strikes (combined) 49 14–119
  • Takedowns
    0.1
    0.1
    0.0–2.1 0.0–2.9
  • Takedowns (combined) 1.4 0.0–4.3
  • Knockdowns (combined) 0.0 0.0–0.0
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Loss streak favours Tuchalov

    Magomed Tuchalov comes in on a 3-fight cleaner skid

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Ramazan Temirov
Ramazan Temirov
Uzbekistan 19-3-0 Striker Orthodox 2-fight win streak
63% | 37%
Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sat 25 Jul · 11:00 PM AEST
Steve Erceg
Steve Erceg
Australia 14-4-0 MMA Orthodox 2-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Ramazan Temirov
63.3 %
050100
90% CI · 33 – 93 · σ 0.042 · High
Why this pick
  • Ramazan Temirov finishes 25% more of their wins
  • Ramazan Temirov finishes by KO 25% more often
  • Ramazan Temirov stuffs 33% more incoming takedowns
  • Ramazan Temirov has never been finished in 2 fights
  • Steve Erceg has a 6-fight UFC experience edge (8 vs 2)
Method Breakdown
Temirov Erceg
KO/TKO 19.7
5.0
Submission 0.1
10.6
Decision 43.5
21.1
Finish Distribution · By Round
18
R1
11
R2
6
R3
0
R4
0
R5
65
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Temirov Erceg
Str/min 4.4
4.6
Sig Acc 40%
48%
Str Def 59%
56%
TD/min 0.06
0.08
Finish 50%
25%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
  • Sig strikes
    53
    55
    11–84 9–82
  • Sig strikes (combined) 110 22–165
  • Takedowns
    0.0
    0.2
    0.0–1.3 0.0–2.2
  • Takedowns (combined) 0.8 0.0–3.9
  • Knockdowns (combined) 0.0 0.0–0.0
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Finish rate favours Temirov

    Ramazan Temirov finishes 25% more of their wins

  • 02 KO rate favours Temirov

    Ramazan Temirov finishes by KO 25% more often

  • 03 Takedown defence favours Temirov

    Ramazan Temirov stuffs 33% more incoming takedowns

  • 04 Strikes absorbed favours Temirov

    Ramazan Temirov eats 0.1 fewer strikes per minute

  • 05 Striking volume favours Erceg

    Steve Erceg lands 0.3 more sig strikes per minute

  • 06 Striking accuracy favours Erceg

    Steve Erceg is 7% more accurate on the feet

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Wellington Turman
Wellington Turman
Brazil 18-8-0 Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 3-fight loss streak
26% | 74%
Welterweight 3 rds
⏱ Sat 25 Jul · 11:00 PM AEST
Islam Dulatov
Islam Dulatov
Russia 12-1-0 MMA Orthodox 1 win
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Islam Dulatov
73.7 %
050100
90% CI · 44 – 98 · σ 0.043 · High
Why this pick
  • Islam Dulatov lands 1.9 more sig strikes per minute
  • Islam Dulatov finishes by KO 78% more often
  • Islam Dulatov eats 0.8 fewer strikes per minute
  • Islam Dulatov out-volumes opponents at 5.1 sig/min vs Wellington Turman's 3.2
  • Islam Dulatov KOs 100% of opponents — Wellington Turman has been KO'd in 22% of losses
Method Breakdown
Turman Dulatov
KO/TKO 3.4
28.5
Submission 5.0
13.1
Decision 18.0
32.1
Finish Distribution · By Round
25
R1
16
R2
8
R3
0
R4
0
R5
50
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Turman Dulatov
Str/min 3.2
5.1
Sig Acc 51%
51%
Str Def 45%
48%
TD/min 0.10
0.00
Finish 44%
100%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
  • Sig strikes
    29
    35
    5–67 8–73
  • Sig strikes (combined) 71 16–144
  • Takedowns
    0.7
    0.0
    0.0–2.6 0.0–2.3
  • Takedowns (combined) 1.4 0.0–4.1
  • Knockdowns (combined) 0.0 0.0–0.0
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Dulatov

    Islam Dulatov lands 1.9 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 KO rate favours Dulatov

    Islam Dulatov finishes by KO 78% more often

  • 03 Strikes absorbed favours Dulatov

    Islam Dulatov eats 0.8 fewer strikes per minute

  • 04 Finish rate favours Dulatov

    Islam Dulatov finishes 56% more of their wins

  • 05 Win streak favours Dulatov

    Islam Dulatov rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 06 Takedown defence favours Dulatov

    Islam Dulatov stuffs 57% more incoming takedowns

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Ismael Bonfim
Ismael Bonfim
Brazil 20-6-0 Boxer Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
31% | 69%
Lightweight 3 rds
⏱ Sat 25 Jul · 11:00 PM AEST
Axel Sola
Axel Sola
France 11-1-1 Karate Southpaw 1 loss
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Axel Sola
68.8 %
050100
90% CI · 39 – 98 · σ 0.094 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Ismael Bonfim eats 1.3 fewer strikes per minute
  • Ismael Bonfim lands 1.4 more sig strikes per minute
  • Ismael Bonfim finishes 30% more of their wins
  • Ismael Bonfim out-volumes opponents at 5.5 sig/min vs Axel Sola's 4.1
  • Axel Sola has never been finished in 2 fights
Method Breakdown
Bonfim Sola
KO/TKO 11.5
24.7
Submission 2.6
10.7
Decision 17.2
33.4
Finish Distribution · By Round
25
R1
16
R2
8
R3
0
R4
0
R5
51
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Bonfim Sola
Str/min 5.5
4.1
Sig Acc 55%
46%
Str Def 56%
61%
TD/min 0.07
0.15
Finish 80%
50%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
  • Sig strikes
    27
    41
    6–82 9–72
  • Sig strikes (combined) 65 16–148
  • Takedowns
    0.1
    0.2
    0.0–2.1 0.0–2.9
  • Takedowns (combined) 1.2 0.0–4.8
  • Knockdowns (combined) 0.0 0.0–0.0
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Bonfim

    Ismael Bonfim eats 1.3 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Bonfim

    Ismael Bonfim lands 1.4 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Finish rate favours Bonfim

    Ismael Bonfim finishes 30% more of their wins

  • 04 Takedown volume favours Sola

    Axel Sola hits 0.08 more takedowns per minute

  • 05 Striking accuracy favours Bonfim

    Ismael Bonfim is 9% more accurate on the feet

  • 06 Durability favours Sola

    Axel Sola has been finished 60% less often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.