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⟁ Past Events — Predictions vs. Actual Results
200 / 293
Correct Picks
68.3% accuracy · 29 events
9 / 16
Parlay Legs ▾
9 parlays
· −$514
+$361
Running P&L · locked picks ▾
$1000 / event · Conservative · Kelly-weighted
· closing: +$402
71 of 99
confident picks landed — when the model gives a fighter 70%+ it has been right 72% of the time
15–26
betting record with the same amount on every recommended bet (-13.7 units — early days, small sample)
Bankroll curve
$1000 per event · Conservative tier · locked picks
+$361
2026-06-15
peak $460 · trough $-968
2026-10-10
From 17 Oct 2026 each card's picks are locked 24 hours before its first bout, as the site showed them then. Earlier cards were locked when their first prop market opened, days to weeks before the card.
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan
2026-10-10 · $1000 Conservative · even split · locked 2026-09-19 15:16 UTC ·
+$1220
| Pick | Fight | Odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brendan Allen wins | Brendan Allen vs Christian Leroy Duncan | 2.22 | $1000 | ✓ won +$1220 |
UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2
2026-09-19 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-09-09 12:20 UTC ·
+$11
| Pick | Fight | Odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dooho Choi wins | Patricio Pitbull vs Dooho Choi | 1.39 | $72 | ✗ lost −$72 |
| Edmen Shahbazyan wins | Edmen Shahbazyan vs Brunno Ferreira | 1.59 | $63 | ✓ won +$37 |
| Joshua Van wins | Alexandre Pantoja vs Joshua Van | 1.85 | $54 | ✓ won +$46 |
Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado
2026-09-12 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-09-09 12:20 UTC ·
−$95
| Pick | Fight | Odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Delgado wins | Jean Silva vs Jose Delgado | 4.25 | — | ⋯ pending |
| Rafa Garcia wins | Rafa Garcia vs Rongzhu | 2.53 | $74 | ✗ lost −$74 |
| Marwan Rahiki wins | Tommy McMillen vs Marwan Rahiki | 2.37 | $21 | ✗ lost −$21 |
UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse
2026-09-05 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-09-02 09:47 UTC ·
−$52
| Pick | Fight | Odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Pinto wins | Ryan Spann vs Mario Pinto | 1.35 | $80 | ✓ won +$28 |
| Dan Hooker wins | Dan Hooker vs Salahdine Parnasse | 5.75 | $80 | ✗ lost −$80 |
UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song
2026-08-29 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-08-25 11:10 UTC ·
−$4
| Pick | Fight | Odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julia Polastri wins | Xiong Jingnan vs Julia Polastri | 1.45 | — | ⋯ pending |
| Nilson Rojas wins | Bilal Hasan vs Nilson Rojas | 5.50 | $80 | ✗ lost −$80 |
| Denise Gomes wins | Yan Xiaonan vs Denise Gomes | 2.32 | $57 | ✓ won +$76 |
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues
2026-08-22 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-08-19 09:05 UTC ·
−$111
| Pick | Fight | Odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance Chatman wins | Anthony Wint vs Terrance Chatman | 8.00 | $80 | ✗ lost −$80 |
| Ryan Kuse wins | Marcio Barbosa vs Ryan Kuse | 7.00 | $31 | ✗ lost −$31 |
UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry
2026-08-15 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-07-29 12:37 UTC ·
−$80
| Pick | Fight | Odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gillian Robertson wins | Mackenzie Dern vs Gillian Robertson | 2.72 | $80 | ✗ lost −$80 |
UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld
2026-08-08 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-08-04 11:58 UTC ·
−$75
| Pick | Fight | Odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louie Sutherland wins | Henrique Da Silva Lopes vs Louie Sutherland | 1.63 | — | ⋯ pending |
| Guilherme Pat wins | Steven Asplund vs Guilherme Pat | 3.02 | $49 | ✗ lost −$49 |
| Jessie Rosas wins | Miles Johns vs Jessie Rosas | 2.33 | — | ⋯ pending |
| Amanda Lemos wins | Amanda Lemos vs Alexia Thainara | 3.02 | $27 | ✗ lost −$27 |
UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez
2026-08-01 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-07-28 16:52 UTC ·
−$56
| Pick | Fight | Odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateusz Rebecki wins | Kyle Prepolec vs Mateusz Rebecki | 1.18 | $80 | ✓ won +$14 |
| Oban Elliott wins | Oban Elliott vs Michael Oliveira | 3.57 | $80 | ✗ lost −$80 |
| Bogdan Grad wins | Dennis Buzukja vs Bogdan Grad | 1.52 | $62 | ✓ won +$32 |
| Fight goes to Decision | Daniel Rodriguez vs Uros Medic | 7.25 | $22 | ✗ lost −$22 |
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov
2026-07-25 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-07-21 13:32 UTC ·
−$102
| Pick | Fight | Odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nurullo Aliev wins | Mike Davis vs Nurullo Aliev | 1.54 | $80 | ✓ won +$43 |
| Tyrell Fortune wins | Rizvan Kuniev vs Tyrell Fortune | 3.34 | $80 | ✗ lost −$80 |
| Damian Rzepecki wins | Magomed Zaynukov vs Damian Rzepecki | 3.73 | $43 | ✗ lost −$43 |
| Dustin Jacoby wins | Dustin Jacoby vs Muhammad Said | 1.59 | $23 | ✗ lost −$23 |
UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman
2026-07-18 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly · locked 2026-07-14 09:24 UTC ·
+$38
| Pick | Fight | Odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Hooper wins | Chase Hooper vs Mitch Ramirez | 1.27 | $80 | ✓ won +$22 |
| Christian Leroy Duncan wins | Jared Cannonier vs Christian Leroy Duncan | 1.32 | $80 | ✓ won +$26 |
| Dricus Du Plessis wins by SUB | Kamaru Usman vs Dricus Du Plessis | 9.25 | $55 | ✗ lost −$55 |
| Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani wins | Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs Seokhyeon Ko | 2.66 | $28 | ✓ won +$46 |
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2
2026-07-11 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly · locked 2026-06-07 13:59 UTC ·
−$200
| Pick | Fight | Odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elisha Ellison wins | Gable Steveson vs Elisha Ellison | 10.00 | $138 | ✗ lost −$138 |
| Benoit Saint Denis wins | Paddy Pimblett vs Benoit Saint Denis | 1.53 | $62 | ✗ lost −$62 |
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres
2026-06-27 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly · locked 2026-06-24 16:05 UTC ·
−$216
| Pick | Fight | Odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manuel Torres wins | Rafael Fiziev vs Manuel Torres | 1.96 | $115 | ✗ lost −$115 |
| Eric Nolan wins by Sub or Decision | Eric Nolan vs Farman Hasanov | 5.30 | $70 | ✗ lost −$70 |
| Matheus Camilo wins | Nazim Sadykhov vs Matheus Camilo | 2.99 | $48 | ✓ won +$95 |
| Ends in Round 3+ / Decision | Julius Walker vs Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev | 3.92 | $44 | ✗ lost −$44 |
| Fight reaches Round 2 | Julius Walker vs Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev | 2.17 | $44 | ✗ lost −$44 |
| Michel Pereira wins | Michel Pereira vs Shara Magomedov | 3.82 | $37 | ✗ lost −$37 |
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi 2
2026-06-20 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly · locked 2026-06-16 17:28 UTC ·
+$109
| Pick | Fight | Odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luana Santos wins | Karol Rosa vs Luana Santos | 1.97 | $157 | ✓ won +$152 |
| Kyoji Horiguchi wins by KO/TKO | Kyoji Horiguchi vs Manel Kape | 11.50 | $43 | ✗ lost −$43 |
UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje
2026-06-15 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly · locked 2026-06-07 13:59 UTC ·
−$26
| Pick | Fight | Odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Hokit wins by KO or Decision | Derrick Lewis vs Josh Hokit | 1.78 | $73 | ✓ won +$57 |
| Ilia Topuria wins by DEC | Justin Gaethje vs Ilia Topuria | 13.00 | $57 | ✗ lost −$57 |
| Steve Garcia wins | Steve Garcia vs Diego Lopes | 2.48 | $52 | ✗ lost −$52 |
| Bo Nickal wins by KO or Decision | Kyle Daukaus vs Bo Nickal | 1.71 | $38 | ✓ won +$27 |
9 / 16
Legs landed
56.2% of picks
2 / 9
Parlays won
every leg has to land
−$514
Profit
$100 on each
Only 9 parlays
settled so far — far too few to judge the profit either way. On 91 past cards,
parlays picked this way landed 67% of the time.
UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2
2026-09-19 ·
−$100
2-leg @ 2.21
Dooho Choi wins @ 1.39Edmen Shahbazyan wins @ 1.59
✗ LOST
−$100
Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado
2026-09-12 ·
−$100
2-leg @ 3.35
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision @ 2.22Edgar Chairez wins @ 1.51
✗ LOST
−$100
UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse
2026-09-05 ·
+$107
2-leg @ 2.07
Mario Pinto wins @ 1.35Felipe Lima wins @ 1.53
✓ WON
+$107
UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song
2026-08-29 ·
−$100
2-leg @ 1.81
Julia Polastri wins @ 1.45Ends in Round 3+ / Decision @ 1.25
✗ LOST
−$100
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues
2026-08-22 ·
−$100
2-leg @ 2.31
Fight reaches Round 2 @ 1.30Gauge Young wins @ 1.78
✗ LOST
−$100
UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez
2026-08-01 ·
+$79
2-leg @ 1.79
Mateusz Rebecki wins @ 1.18Bogdan Grad wins @ 1.52
✓ WON
+$79
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov
2026-07-25 ·
−$100
2-leg @ 2.45
Dustin Jacoby wins @ 1.59Nurullo Aliev wins @ 1.54
✗ LOST
−$100
UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman
2026-07-18 ·
−$100
2-leg @ 2.24
Christian Leroy Duncan wins @ 1.32Alvin Hines wins @ 1.70
✗ LOST
−$100
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2
2026-07-11 ·
−$100
2-leg @ 1.99
Damian Pinas wins @ 1.46Fight reaches Round 2 @ 1.36
✗ LOST
−$100
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan 9/12 · 75%
2026-10-10
Model Prediction
Brendan Allen
✓ won
57%
KO 15%·
Sub 23%·
Dec 19%
Christian Leroy Duncan
43%
KO 20%·
Sub 4%·
Dec 19%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Brendan Allen wins | 53% | 1.87 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Brendan Allen wins by Submission | 22% | 4.30 | ✓ predicted |
| Finish round Finish in Round 1 | 21% | — | missed |
| Every Sportsbet market | Model prob | Odds | Bet result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ends in Round 3+ / Decision | 62% | 8.00 | ✓ won |
| Ends in Round 3+ / Decision | 62% | 7.50 | ✓ won |
| Ends in Round 3+ / Decision | 62% | 4.50 | ✓ won |
| Ends in Round 3+ / Decision | 62% | 3.30 | ✓ won |
| Brendan Allen wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2 | 9% | 19.00 | ✗ lost |
| Brendan Allen wins by KO/TKO in R1 | 5% | 34.00 | ✗ lost |
| Brendan Allen wins by KO/TKO | 14% | 11.00 | ✗ lost |
| Brendan Allen wins by KO/TKO in R2, R3 or R4 | 8% | 17.00 | ✗ lost |
| Christian Leroy Duncan takedowns over 0.5 | 31% | 4.50 | — |
| Brendan Allen wins by KO/TKO in R2 | 4% | 34.00 | ✗ lost |
| Ends in Round 3+ / Decision | 62% | 2.10 | ✓ won |
| Brendan Allen wins by finish in Round 1 | 12% | 10.00 | ✗ lost |
| Christian Leroy Duncan wins by Sub or Decision | 25% | 4.75 | ✗ lost |
| Brendan Allen wins by KO or Sub | 36% | 3.30 | ✓ won |
| Christian Leroy Duncan wins by DEC | 21% | 5.60 | ✗ lost |
| Brendan Allen wins by finish in Round 2 | 10% | 11.50 | ✗ lost |
| Brendan Allen wins by KO/TKO in R3, R4 or R5 | 5% | 21.00 | ✗ lost |
| Brendan Allen wins by KO/TKO in R3 | 2% | 46.00 | ✗ lost |
| Brendan Allen wins by KO/TKO in R4 | 2% | 61.00 | ✗ lost |
| Finish before Round 3 | 38% | 2.83 | ✗ lost |
| Ends in Round 3+ / Decision | 62% | 1.68 | ✓ won |
| Brendan Allen wins by Submission in R1 or R2 | 13% | 7.50 | ✗ lost |
| Brendan Allen wins | 53% | 1.87 | ✓ won |
| Christian Leroy Duncan wins in R4+ or by Decision | 26% | 3.80 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by Submission | 26% | 3.75 | ✓ won |
| Fight ends by Submission in R1 | 9% | 11.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends before decision | 62% | 1.56 | ✓ won |
| Christian Leroy Duncan wins by Submission in R1 or R2 | 3% | 34.00 | ✗ lost |
| Christian Leroy Duncan wins by SUB | 5% | 21.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by Submission in R2 | 7% | 13.00 | ✗ lost |
| Brendan Allen wins by Submission in R1 | 7% | 13.00 | ✗ lost |
| Christian Leroy Duncan wins by Submission in R1 | 2% | 61.00 | ✗ lost |
| Brendan Allen wins by KO or Decision | 32% | 2.95 | ✗ lost |
| Over 2.5 rounds | 57% | 1.66 | ✓ won |
| Christian Leroy Duncan significant strikes over 69.5 | 43% | 2.20 | — |
| Christian Leroy Duncan significant strikes over 49.5 | 57% | 1.62 | — |
| Christian Leroy Duncan significant strikes over 79.5 | 36% | 2.60 | — |
| Fight reaches Round 2 | 79% | 1.17 | ✓ won |
| Brendan Allen wins by SUB | 22% | 4.30 | ✓ won |
| Christian Leroy Duncan wins | 47% | 1.98 | ✗ lost |
| Under 2.5 rounds | 43% | 2.10 | ✗ lost |
| Christian Leroy Duncan wins by Submission in R2 | 1% | 71.00 | ✗ lost |
| Christian Leroy Duncan significant strikes over 59.5 | 50% | 1.83 | — |
| Christian Leroy Duncan significant strikes over 39.5 | 65% | 1.40 | — |
| Christian Leroy Duncan significant strikes over 29.5 | 72% | 1.25 | — |
| Christian Leroy Duncan significant strikes over 19.5 | 81% | 1.12 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 49.5 | 76% | 1.19 | — |
| Christian Leroy Duncan wins by Submission in R2, R3 or R4 | 3% | 34.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight goes to decision | 38% | 2.33 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO | 36% | 2.50 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 59.5 | 70% | 1.26 | — |
| Christian Leroy Duncan significant strikes over 89.5 | 29% | 3.10 | — |
| Brendan Allen significant strikes over 19.5 | 75% | 1.17 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 69.5 | 65% | 1.34 | — |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1 | 12% | 7.25 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2 | 10% | 8.75 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 79.5 | 60% | 1.44 | — |
| Brendan Allen significant strikes over 29.5 | 64% | 1.36 | — |
| Fight goes to Decision | 38% | 2.25 | ✗ lost |
| Christian Leroy Duncan wins by KO or Decision | 42% | 2.05 | ✗ lost |
| Brendan Allen wins by Submission in R2 or R3 | 10% | 8.75 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 89.5 | 55% | 1.54 | — |
| Brendan Allen wins by Submission in R2 | 6% | 14.00 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 99.5 | 50% | 1.66 | — |
| Total takedowns over 0.5 | 70% | 1.18 | — |
| Brendan Allen significant strikes over 39.5 | 53% | 1.57 | — |
| Brendan Allen wins by KO/TKO in R5 | 1% | 71.00 | ✗ lost |
| Brendan Allen wins by Sub or Decision | 39% | 2.08 | ✓ won |
| Total significant strikes over 109.5 | 45% | 1.79 | — |
| Brendan Allen wins by finish in Round 3 | 6% | 13.00 | ✗ lost |
| Christian Leroy Duncan wins by Submission in R3, R4 or R5 | 2% | 46.00 | ✗ lost |
| Christian Leroy Duncan wins by Submission in R3 | 1% | 101.00 | ✗ lost |
| Brendan Allen wins by finish in Round 4 | 5% | 17.00 | ✗ lost |
| Christian Leroy Duncan significant strikes over 99.5 | 21% | 3.75 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 119.5 | 39% | 1.94 | — |
| Total takedowns over 1.5 | 51% | 1.45 | — |
| Brendan Allen takedowns over 0.5 | 59% | 1.25 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 129.5 | 34% | 2.10 | — |
| Brendan Allen significant strikes over 49.5 | 39% | 1.83 | — |
| Christian Leroy Duncan wins by KO or Sub | 26% | 2.75 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3 | 6% | 11.50 | ✗ lost |
| Christian Leroy Duncan wins by finish in Round 2 | 7% | 9.50 | ✗ lost |
| Christian Leroy Duncan wins by finish in Round 1 | 9% | 7.75 | ✗ lost |
| Brendan Allen wins by Submission in R3 or R4 | 6% | 10.50 | ✗ lost |
| Christian Leroy Duncan wins by KO/TKO in R1, R2 or R3 | 17% | 4.00 | ✗ lost |
| Brendan Allen wins by DEC | 18% | 3.80 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by Submission in R3 | 4% | 15.00 | ✗ lost |
| Christian Leroy Duncan wins by KO/TKO | 21% | 3.05 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 139.5 | 29% | 2.25 | — |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R4 | 5% | 14.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by Submission in R4 | 3% | 19.00 | ✗ lost |
| Christian Leroy Duncan wins by KO/TKO in R2, R3 or R4 | 12% | 5.10 | ✗ lost |
| Total knockdowns over 0.5 | 37% | 1.69 | — |
| Brendan Allen wins by Submission in R3 | 4% | 17.00 | ✗ lost |
| Christian Leroy Duncan wins by KO/TKO in R1 | 7% | 8.50 | ✗ lost |
| Brendan Allen wins by finish in Round 5 | 3% | 21.00 | ✓ won |
| Christian Leroy Duncan wins by KO/TKO in R2 | 6% | 10.00 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 149.5 | 23% | 2.50 | — |
| Brendan Allen wins by Submission in R4 or R5 | 4% | 13.00 | ✓ won |
| Brendan Allen wins by Submission in R4 | 3% | 21.00 | ✗ lost |
| Christian Leroy Duncan wins by finish in Round 3 | 4% | 12.50 | ✗ lost |
| Total takedowns over 2.5 | 33% | 1.67 | — |
| Brendan Allen wins by finish in Round 1 | 12% | 4.40 | ✗ lost |
| Christian Leroy Duncan wins by KO/TKO in R3, R4 or R5 | 8% | 6.50 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 159.5 | 18% | 2.80 | — |
| Brendan Allen significant strikes over 59.5 | 25% | 2.10 | — |
| Christian Leroy Duncan wins by KO/TKO in R3 | 4% | 14.00 | ✗ lost |
| Christian Leroy Duncan significant strikes over 109.5 | 12% | 4.33 | — |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R5 | 3% | 17.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by Submission in R5 | 2% | 23.00 | ✓ won |
| Christian Leroy Duncan wins by KO/TKO in R4 | 3% | 17.00 | ✗ lost |
| Brendan Allen wins by Submission in R5 | 2% | 26.00 | ✓ won |
| Brendan Allen takedowns over 1.5 | 28% | 1.53 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 169.5 | 14% | 3.10 | — |
| Total takedowns over 3.5 | 19% | 1.96 | — |
| Christian Leroy Duncan wins by KO/TKO in R5 | 2% | 21.00 | ✗ lost |
| Brendan Allen significant strikes over 69.5 | 13% | 2.63 | — |
| Christian Leroy Duncan wins by finish in Round 1 | 9% | 3.60 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 179.5 | 9% | 3.50 | — |
| Brendan Allen takedowns over 2.5 | 14% | 1.72 | — |
| Total takedowns over 4.5 | 9% | 2.35 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 189.5 | 4% | 4.00 | — |
| Christian Leroy Duncan significant strikes over 119.5 | 3% | 5.00 | — |
| Brendan Allen significant strikes over 79.5 | 2% | 3.30 | — |
| Brendan Allen takedowns over 3.5 | 2% | 2.00 | — |
Model Prediction
Jai Herbert
✓ won
17%
KO 6%·
Sub 3%·
Dec 9%
Matheus Camilo
83%
KO 32%·
Sub 19%·
Dec 31%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Matheus Camilo wins | 71% | 1.50 | missed |
| Method Matheus Camilo wins by KO/TKO | 28% | 2.50 | missed |
| Finish round Finish in Round 1 | 32% | 2.85 | missed |
| Every Sportsbet market | Model prob | Odds | Bet result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matheus Camilo wins by Submission in R1 or R2 | 14% | 11.50 | ✗ lost |
| Matheus Camilo wins by SUB | 16% | 9.50 | ✗ lost |
| Matheus Camilo wins by Submission in R1 | 9% | 17.00 | ✗ lost |
| Matheus Camilo wins by Sub or Decision value | 43% | 3.40 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by Submission in R1 | 11% | 13.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by Submission | 21% | 7.00 | ✗ lost |
| Matheus Camilo wins by Submission in R2 | 5% | 26.00 | ✗ lost |
| Matheus Camilo wins by DEC | 27% | 4.80 | ✗ lost |
| Matheus Camilo wins by Submission in R2 or R3 | 8% | 17.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by Submission in R2 | 7% | 19.00 | ✗ lost |
| Matheus Camilo wins by Decision | 27% | 4.50 | ✗ lost |
| Fight goes to decision | 41% | 2.61 | ✓ won |
| Matheus Camilo wins | 71% | 1.50 | ✗ lost |
| Fight goes to Decision | 41% | 2.55 | ✓ won |
| Finish before Round 2 | 32% | 3.32 | ✗ lost |
| Over 2.5 rounds | 46% | 2.25 | ✓ won |
| Total takedowns over 0.5 | 79% | 1.27 | — |
| Jai Herbert wins by Submission in R1 | 2% | 41.00 | ✗ lost |
| Matheus Camilo wins by Submission in R3 | 2% | 41.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight reaches Round 3 | 50% | 1.94 | ✓ won |
| Matheus Camilo wins by KO or Decision | 55% | 1.71 | ✗ lost |
| Jai Herbert wins by SUB | 4% | 21.00 | ✗ lost |
| Matheus Camilo wins by KO or Sub | 44% | 2.07 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by finish in Round 1 | 32% | 2.85 | ✗ lost |
| Matheus Camilo significant strikes over 19.5 | 68% | 1.33 | — |
| Total takedowns over 1.5 | 56% | 1.59 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 49.5 | 61% | 1.44 | — |
| Jai Herbert wins by Submission in R1 or R2 | 4% | 23.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by Submission in R3 | 3% | 29.00 | ✗ lost |
| Under 2.5 rounds | 54% | 1.57 | ✗ lost |
| Jai Herbert wins by Sub or Decision | 19% | 4.50 | ✓ won |
| Fight ends before decision | 59% | 1.45 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 59.5 | 53% | 1.59 | — |
| Matheus Camilo wins by finish in Round 2 | 14% | 6.00 | ✗ lost |
| Jai Herbert takedowns over 0.5 | 22% | 3.75 | — |
| Matheus Camilo takedowns over 0.5 | 61% | 1.36 | — |
| Jai Herbert takedowns over 1.5 | 11% | 7.50 | — |
| Matheus Camilo significant strikes over 29.5 | 49% | 1.67 | — |
| Total takedowns over 2.5 | 40% | 1.96 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 69.5 | 43% | 1.79 | — |
| Jai Herbert wins by DEC | 14% | 5.30 | ✓ won |
| Jai Herbert significant strikes over 19.5 | 59% | 1.30 | — |
| Jai Herbert wins | 29% | 2.60 | ✓ won |
| Matheus Camilo wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2 | 24% | 3.05 | ✗ lost |
| Jai Herbert wins by Decision | 14% | 5.00 | ✓ won |
| Matheus Camilo wins by KO/TKO in R1 | 15% | 4.80 | ✗ lost |
| Jai Herbert wins by Submission in R2 | 1% | 51.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1 | 20% | 3.45 | ✗ lost |
| Matheus Camilo wins by KO/TKO | 28% | 2.50 | ✗ lost |
| Matheus Camilo significant strikes over 39.5 | 33% | 2.10 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 79.5 | 33% | 2.05 | — |
| Matheus Camilo takedowns over 1.5 | 39% | 1.72 | — |
| Jai Herbert wins by KO or Decision | 24% | 2.75 | ✓ won |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO | 38% | 1.75 | ✗ lost |
| Matheus Camilo significant strikes over 49.5 | 21% | 3.00 | — |
| Total takedowns over 3.5 | 26% | 2.45 | — |
| Matheus Camilo wins by KO/TKO in R2 | 9% | 7.25 | ✗ lost |
| Jai Herbert wins by KO or Sub | 14% | 4.40 | ✗ lost |
| Jai Herbert significant strikes over 29.5 | 38% | 1.62 | — |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2 | 12% | 5.20 | ✗ lost |
| Matheus Camilo wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3 | 13% | 4.80 | ✗ lost |
| Matheus Camilo significant strikes over 59.5 | 14% | 4.20 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 99.5 | 21% | 2.80 | — |
| Jai Herbert wins by Submission in R3 | 1% | 91.00 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 89.5 | 24% | 2.35 | — |
| Fight ends by finish in Round 3 | 8% | 6.75 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 109.5 | 17% | 3.35 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 119.5 | 13% | 4.10 | — |
| Jai Herbert wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2 | 8% | 6.25 | ✗ lost |
| Jai Herbert significant strikes over 49.5 | 19% | 2.80 | — |
| Jai Herbert wins by KO/TKO in R1 | 5% | 9.75 | ✗ lost |
| Jai Herbert significant strikes over 59.5 | 14% | 3.75 | — |
| Jai Herbert wins by KO/TKO | 10% | 5.20 | ✗ lost |
| Jai Herbert significant strikes over 39.5 | 24% | 2.10 | — |
| Jai Herbert significant strikes over 69.5 | 9% | 5.50 | — |
| Total knockdowns over 0.5 | 38% | 1.29 | — |
| Matheus Camilo takedowns over 2.5 | 23% | 2.10 | — |
| Total takedowns over 4.5 | 15% | 3.30 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 129.5 | 9% | 5.20 | — |
| Jai Herbert wins by finish in Round 2 | 4% | 10.00 | ✗ lost |
| Matheus Camilo wins by KO/TKO in R3 | 4% | 11.00 | ✗ lost |
| Matheus Camilo significant strikes over 69.5 | 7% | 6.00 | — |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3 | 5% | 8.00 | ✗ lost |
| Jai Herbert wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3 | 4% | 9.00 | ✗ lost |
| Jai Herbert wins by KO/TKO in R2 | 3% | 13.00 | ✗ lost |
| Matheus Camilo takedowns over 3.5 | 14% | 2.75 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 139.5 | 5% | 6.50 | — |
| Jai Herbert significant strikes over 79.5 | 4% | 8.00 | — |
| Jai Herbert wins by KO/TKO in R3 | 1% | 21.00 | ✗ lost |
| Matheus Camilo takedowns over 4.5 | 5% | 3.75 | — |
| Total takedowns over 5.5 | 3% | 4.25 | — |
| Total knockdowns over 1.5 | 3% | 4.75 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 149.5 | 2% | 8.50 | — |
Model Prediction
Ketlen Souza
44%
KO 11%·
Sub 3%·
Dec 30%
Loopy Godínez
✓ won
56%
KO 3%·
Sub 6%·
Dec 47%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Loopy Godínez wins | 64% | 1.40 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Loopy Godínez wins by Decision | 54% | 1.88 | ✓ predicted |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 78% | 1.33 | ✓ predicted |
| Every Sportsbet market | Model prob | Odds | Bet result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ketlen Souza wins in R3+ or by Decision | 29% | 4.00 | ✗ lost |
| Ketlen Souza wins by KO or Decision | 33% | 3.35 | ✗ lost |
| Ketlen Souza wins by DEC | 25% | 4.40 | ✗ lost |
| Ketlen Souza wins | 36% | 2.99 | ✗ lost |
| Fight goes to decision | 78% | 1.33 | ✓ won |
| Fight goes to Decision | 78% | 1.32 | ✓ won |
| Over 2.5 rounds | 80% | 1.28 | ✓ won |
| Loopy Godínez wins by Decision | 54% | 1.90 | ✓ won |
| Loopy Godínez wins by DEC | 54% | 1.88 | ✓ won |
| Fight reaches Round 3 | 82% | 1.22 | ✓ won |
| Loopy Godínez wins by KO or Decision | 57% | 1.75 | ✓ won |
| Total significant strikes over 129.5 | 52% | 1.92 | — |
| Ketlen Souza wins by KO/TKO in R1 | 5% | 21.00 | ✗ lost |
| Ketlen Souza wins by Sub or Decision | 27% | 3.60 | ✗ lost |
| Ketlen Souza significant strikes over 59.5 | 49% | 2.00 | — |
| Ketlen Souza wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2 | 7% | 13.00 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 119.5 | 56% | 1.70 | — |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1 | 6% | 15.00 | ✗ lost |
| Ketlen Souza significant strikes over 49.5 | 58% | 1.62 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 139.5 | 43% | 2.20 | — |
| Total takedowns over 0.5 | 83% | 1.14 | — |
| Ketlen Souza wins by KO/TKO | 9% | 10.50 | ✗ lost |
| Loopy Godínez significant strikes over 79.5 | 36% | 2.60 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 109.5 | 60% | 1.52 | — |
| Loopy Godínez significant strikes over 89.5 | 27% | 3.40 | — |
| Ketlen Souza significant strikes over 19.5 | 83% | 1.08 | — |
| Loopy Godínez significant strikes over 69.5 | 45% | 2.00 | — |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO | 12% | 7.50 | ✗ lost |
| Loopy Godínez wins | 64% | 1.40 | ✓ won |
| Loopy Godínez significant strikes over 19.5 | 84% | 1.07 | — |
| Ketlen Souza significant strikes over 39.5 | 67% | 1.33 | — |
| Total knockdowns over 0.5 | 20% | 4.50 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 49.5 | 82% | 1.09 | — |
| Loopy Godínez significant strikes over 59.5 | 54% | 1.67 | — |
| Loopy Godínez wins by Sub or Decision | 61% | 1.46 | ✓ won |
| Ketlen Souza significant strikes over 29.5 | 76% | 1.17 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 99.5 | 64% | 1.39 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 59.5 | 79% | 1.12 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 69.5 | 76% | 1.16 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 79.5 | 72% | 1.22 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 89.5 | 68% | 1.29 | — |
| Total takedowns over 1.5 | 64% | 1.36 | — |
| Loopy Godínez significant strikes over 49.5 | 61% | 1.40 | — |
| Loopy Godínez significant strikes over 29.5 | 76% | 1.12 | — |
| Ketlen Souza takedowns over 0.5 | 28% | 3.10 | — |
| Loopy Godínez significant strikes over 39.5 | 69% | 1.22 | — |
| Loopy Godínez takedowns over 0.5 | 65% | 1.25 | — |
| Ketlen Souza wins by KO/TKO in R2 | 3% | 29.00 | ✗ lost |
| Ketlen Souza wins by KO or Sub | 11% | 7.00 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 149.5 | 30% | 2.60 | — |
| Ketlen Souza wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3 | 4% | 18.00 | ✗ lost |
| Finish before Round 3 | 18% | 4.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by finish in Round 1 | 11% | 6.25 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2 | 4% | 19.00 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 159.5 | 22% | 3.15 | — |
| Loopy Godínez takedowns over 1.5 | 46% | 1.50 | — |
| Fight ends before decision | 22% | 3.12 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 169.5 | 18% | 3.80 | — |
| Total takedowns over 2.5 | 42% | 1.60 | — |
| Under 2.5 rounds | 20% | 3.25 | ✗ lost |
| Ketlen Souza significant strikes over 69.5 | 24% | 2.63 | — |
| Loopy Godínez significant strikes over 99.5 | 14% | 4.50 | — |
| Loopy Godínez wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2 | 3% | 23.00 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 179.5 | 13% | 4.60 | — |
| Loopy Godínez wins by KO/TKO | 3% | 19.00 | ✗ lost |
| Ketlen Souza wins by KO/TKO in R3 | 1% | 41.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by finish in Round 2 | 7% | 8.25 | ✗ lost |
| Loopy Godínez wins by KO/TKO in R1 | 2% | 34.00 | ✗ lost |
| Ketlen Souza significant strikes over 79.5 | 15% | 3.60 | — |
| Ketlen Souza takedowns over 1.5 | 9% | 5.50 | — |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3 | 2% | 26.00 | ✗ lost |
| Loopy Godínez wins by KO/TKO in R2 | 1% | 51.00 | ✗ lost |
| Loopy Godínez wins by KO or Sub | 10% | 4.80 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by Submission in R1 | 5% | 9.25 | ✗ lost |
| Loopy Godínez takedowns over 2.5 | 27% | 1.72 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 189.5 | 8% | 5.60 | — |
| Loopy Godínez wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3 | 1% | 31.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by Submission | 10% | 4.60 | ✗ lost |
| Loopy Godínez wins by Submission in R1 or R2 | 6% | 7.25 | ✗ lost |
| Loopy Godínez wins by Submission in R1 | 4% | 11.50 | ✗ lost |
| Total takedowns over 3.5 | 23% | 1.90 | — |
| Loopy Godínez wins by SUB | 7% | 5.90 | ✗ lost |
| Ketlen Souza wins by Submission in R1 | 1% | 31.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by finish in Round 3 | 3% | 11.50 | ✗ lost |
| Ketlen Souza wins by Submission in R1 or R2 | 2% | 19.00 | ✗ lost |
| Ketlen Souza wins by SUB | 2% | 15.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by Submission in R2 | 3% | 12.00 | ✗ lost |
| Loopy Godínez wins by Submission in R2 or R3 | 3% | 10.00 | ✗ lost |
| Loopy Godínez wins by Submission in R2 | 2% | 15.00 | ✗ lost |
| Total takedowns over 4.5 | 14% | 2.30 | — |
| Ketlen Souza wins by Submission in R2 | 1% | 41.00 | ✗ lost |
| Loopy Godínez takedowns over 3.5 | 14% | 2.10 | — |
| Loopy Godínez wins by Submission in R3 | 1% | 23.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by Submission in R3 | 2% | 17.00 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 199.5 | 4% | 6.75 | — |
| Ketlen Souza significant strikes over 89.5 | 5% | 4.50 | — |
| Total takedowns over 5.5 | 5% | 2.80 | — |
| Loopy Godínez takedowns over 4.5 | 1% | 2.63 | — |
Model Prediction
Andre Fili
✓ won
57%
KO 22%·
Sub 3%·
Dec 32%
Kai Kamaka III
43%
KO 20%·
Sub 0%·
Dec 23%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Andre Fili wins | 57% | 1.65 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Andre Fili wins by Decision | 32% | 3.10 | missed |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 55% | 2.20 | missed |
| Every Sportsbet market | Model prob | Odds | Bet result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kai Kamaka III wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2 | 17% | 9.25 | ✗ lost |
| Kai Kamaka III wins by KO/TKO in R1 | 11% | 14.00 | ✗ lost |
| Kai Kamaka III wins by KO/TKO | 20% | 7.25 | ✗ lost |
| Kai Kamaka III wins by KO/TKO in R2 | 6% | 19.00 | ✗ lost |
| Under 2.5 rounds | 42% | 2.87 | ✓ won |
| Kai Kamaka III wins by KO or Sub | 20% | 5.90 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1 | 22% | 5.00 | ✗ lost |
| Finish before Round 2 | 24% | 4.60 | ✗ lost |
| Kai Kamaka III wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3 | 9% | 12.00 | ✗ lost |
| Kai Kamaka III wins by finish in Round 1 | 11% | 10.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO | 42% | 2.45 | ✓ won |
| Andre Fili wins by Sub or Decision | 36% | 2.85 | ✗ lost |
| Andre Fili wins by DEC | 32% | 3.10 | ✗ lost |
| Kai Kamaka III wins by KO or Decision | 42% | 2.35 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends before decision | 45% | 2.20 | ✓ won |
| Andre Fili wins by Decision | 32% | 3.00 | ✗ lost |
| Kai Kamaka III wins | 42% | 2.25 | ✗ lost |
| Andre Fili wins | 57% | 1.65 | ✓ won |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2 | 13% | 7.00 | ✓ won |
| Andre Fili wins by KO or Decision | 54% | 1.70 | ✓ won |
| Fight ends by finish in Round 2 | 14% | 6.25 | ✓ won |
| Fight goes to decision | 55% | 1.62 | ✗ lost |
| Fight reaches Round 2 | 76% | 1.17 | ✓ won |
| Andre Fili wins by Submission in R1 | 2% | 51.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight goes to Decision | 55% | 1.61 | ✗ lost |
| Andre Fili significant strikes over 19.5 | 82% | 1.08 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 49.5 | 80% | 1.11 | — |
| Kai Kamaka III significant strikes over 19.5 | 81% | 1.08 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 59.5 | 75% | 1.15 | — |
| Andre Fili significant strikes over 29.5 | 73% | 1.17 | — |
| Andre Fili wins by Submission in R1 or R2 | 3% | 31.00 | ✗ lost |
| Andre Fili significant strikes over 79.5 | 27% | 3.20 | — |
| Andre Fili significant strikes over 69.5 | 35% | 2.40 | — |
| Andre Fili wins by SUB | 3% | 26.00 | ✗ lost |
| Andre Fili significant strikes over 39.5 | 63% | 1.33 | — |
| Andre Fili significant strikes over 59.5 | 44% | 1.91 | — |
| Andre Fili significant strikes over 49.5 | 53% | 1.57 | — |
| Andre Fili wins by Submission in R2 | 1% | 81.00 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 69.5 | 70% | 1.19 | — |
| Kai Kamaka III significant strikes over 29.5 | 72% | 1.14 | — |
| Andre Fili significant strikes over 89.5 | 20% | 4.20 | — |
| Andre Fili wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2 | 19% | 4.40 | ✓ won |
| Total significant strikes over 79.5 | 65% | 1.25 | — |
| Andre Fili wins by KO or Sub | 25% | 3.20 | ✓ won |
| Over 2.5 rounds | 58% | 1.36 | ✗ lost |
| Andre Fili takedowns over 0.5 | 61% | 1.30 | — |
| Andre Fili wins by KO/TKO in R1 | 12% | 6.75 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 89.5 | 59% | 1.31 | — |
| Kai Kamaka III significant strikes over 39.5 | 62% | 1.25 | — |
| Kai Kamaka III wins by finish in Round 1 | 11% | 7.25 | ✗ lost |
| Kai Kamaka III wins in R3+ or by Decision | 26% | 2.95 | ✗ lost |
| Andre Fili wins by KO/TKO | 22% | 3.50 | ✓ won |
| Kai Kamaka III wins by KO/TKO in R3 | 3% | 26.00 | ✗ lost |
| Total takedowns over 0.5 | 68% | 1.10 | — |
| Kai Kamaka III wins by DEC | 23% | 3.30 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 99.5 | 54% | 1.38 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 109.5 | 49% | 1.48 | — |
| Kai Kamaka III significant strikes over 49.5 | 52% | 1.36 | — |
| Andre Fili significant strikes over 99.5 | 13% | 5.50 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 119.5 | 43% | 1.60 | — |
| Andre Fili wins by KO/TKO in R2 | 7% | 10.00 | ✓ won |
| Andre Fili wins by Submission in R2 or R3 | 2% | 46.00 | ✗ lost |
| Kai Kamaka III significant strikes over 59.5 | 43% | 1.57 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 129.5 | 38% | 1.76 | — |
| Kai Kamaka III wins by Sub or Decision | 23% | 2.95 | ✗ lost |
| Total takedowns over 1.5 | 52% | 1.25 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 139.5 | 33% | 1.96 | — |
| Kai Kamaka III significant strikes over 69.5 | 35% | 1.83 | — |
| Andre Fili takedowns over 1.5 | 38% | 1.67 | — |
| Andre Fili wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3 | 10% | 6.25 | ✓ won |
| Total knockdowns over 0.5 | 37% | 1.65 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 149.5 | 28% | 2.20 | — |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3 | 6% | 10.00 | ✗ lost |
| Kai Kamaka III significant strikes over 79.5 | 27% | 2.25 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 159.5 | 23% | 2.50 | — |
| Fight ends by finish in Round 3 | 7% | 8.75 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 169.5 | 19% | 2.90 | — |
| Andre Fili wins by finish in Round 1 | 13% | 4.00 | ✗ lost |
| Kai Kamaka III significant strikes over 89.5 | 19% | 2.75 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 179.5 | 15% | 3.40 | — |
| Total takedowns over 2.5 | 35% | 1.42 | — |
| Andre Fili significant strikes over 109.5 | 6% | 7.50 | — |
| Andre Fili takedowns over 2.5 | 23% | 2.00 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 189.5 | 11% | 4.10 | — |
| Fight ends by Submission | 3% | 13.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by Submission in R1 | 2% | 23.00 | ✗ lost |
| Andre Fili wins by KO/TKO in R3 | 3% | 13.00 | ✗ lost |
| Kai Kamaka III significant strikes over 99.5 | 12% | 3.50 | — |
| Andre Fili takedowns over 3.5 | 16% | 2.50 | — |
| Kai Kamaka III takedowns over 0.5 | 22% | 1.67 | — |
| Total takedowns over 3.5 | 22% | 1.64 | — |
| Fight ends by Submission in R2 | 1% | 34.00 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 199.5 | 7% | 4.90 | — |
| Andre Fili takedowns over 4.5 | 9% | 3.30 | — |
| Total takedowns over 4.5 | 14% | 1.96 | — |
| Kai Kamaka III takedowns over 1.5 | 12% | 2.10 | — |
| Kai Kamaka III significant strikes over 109.5 | 4% | 4.50 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 209.5 | 3% | 5.90 | — |
| Total takedowns over 5.5 | 7% | 2.35 | — |
| Kai Kamaka III takedowns over 2.5 | 1% | 2.75 | — |
OT
10-1-0
Winner
Otari Tanzilovi
KO/TKO · R2
✓ predicted
MW
10-1-0
Model Prediction
Otari Tanzilovi
✓ won
69%
KO 33%·
Sub 4%·
Dec 32%
Malcolm Wellmaker
31%
KO 7%·
Sub 1%·
Dec 23%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Malcolm Wellmaker wins | 53% | 1.45 | missed |
| Method Malcolm Wellmaker wins by Decision value | 39% | 4.10 | missed |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 61% | 2.13 | missed |
| Every Sportsbet market | Model prob | Odds | Bet result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Otari Tanzilovi wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2 value | 18% | 11.00 | ✓ won |
| Otari Tanzilovi wins by KO/TKO in R1 | 11% | 17.00 | ✗ lost |
| Otari Tanzilovi wins by KO/TKO value | 22% | 8.75 | ✓ won |
| Malcolm Wellmaker takedowns over 0.5 | 25% | 7.00 | — |
| Otari Tanzilovi wins by KO/TKO in R2 | 7% | 23.00 | ✓ won |
| Malcolm Wellmaker wins by DEC value | 39% | 4.10 | ✗ lost |
| Malcolm Wellmaker wins by Decision value | 39% | 4.00 | ✗ lost |
| Otari Tanzilovi wins by KO or Sub value | 25% | 6.25 | ✓ won |
| Otari Tanzilovi wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3 | 11% | 14.00 | ✓ won |
| Malcolm Wellmaker wins by Sub or Decision value | 41% | 3.50 | ✗ lost |
| Otari Tanzilovi wins by KO or Decision value | 44% | 3.00 | ✓ won |
| Fight goes to decision | 61% | 2.13 | ✗ lost |
| Otari Tanzilovi wins value | 47% | 2.76 | ✓ won |
| Otari Tanzilovi wins by finish in Round 1 | 13% | 10.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight goes to Decision | 61% | 2.10 | ✗ lost |
| Over 2.5 rounds | 64% | 1.90 | ✗ lost |
| Otari Tanzilovi wins in R3+ or by Decision | 31% | 3.75 | ✗ lost |
| Fight reaches Round 3 | 67% | 1.71 | ✗ lost |
| Otari Tanzilovi wins by KO/TKO in R3 | 4% | 31.00 | ✗ lost |
| Otari Tanzilovi wins by finish in Round 1 | 13% | 7.75 | ✗ lost |
| Otari Tanzilovi significant strikes over 19.5 | 78% | 1.22 | — |
| Otari Tanzilovi wins by finish in Round 2 | 8% | 12.00 | ✓ won |
| Otari Tanzilovi wins by DEC | 22% | 4.25 | ✗ lost |
| Total takedowns over 0.5 | 76% | 1.21 | — |
| Otari Tanzilovi significant strikes over 29.5 | 65% | 1.40 | — |
| Total takedowns over 1.5 | 60% | 1.51 | — |
| Otari Tanzilovi wins by Sub or Decision | 25% | 3.60 | ✗ lost |
| Otari Tanzilovi significant strikes over 49.5 | 42% | 2.10 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 49.5 | 71% | 1.23 | — |
| Malcolm Wellmaker significant strikes over 19.5 | 77% | 1.14 | — |
| Malcolm Wellmaker significant strikes over 29.5 | 67% | 1.30 | — |
| Otari Tanzilovi significant strikes over 59.5 | 33% | 2.63 | — |
| Malcolm Wellmaker significant strikes over 39.5 | 58% | 1.50 | — |
| Otari Tanzilovi significant strikes over 39.5 | 52% | 1.67 | — |
| Otari Tanzilovi takedowns over 1.5 | 55% | 1.57 | — |
| Otari Tanzilovi takedowns over 0.5 | 68% | 1.25 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 59.5 | 64% | 1.32 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 69.5 | 57% | 1.41 | — |
| Malcolm Wellmaker significant strikes over 49.5 | 47% | 1.72 | — |
| Total takedowns over 2.5 | 44% | 1.79 | — |
| Otari Tanzilovi significant strikes over 69.5 | 22% | 3.50 | — |
| Malcolm Wellmaker wins by KO or Decision | 51% | 1.52 | ✗ lost |
| Malcolm Wellmaker wins | 53% | 1.45 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 79.5 | 50% | 1.52 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 89.5 | 46% | 1.66 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 129.5 | 29% | 2.65 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 109.5 | 37% | 2.03 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 99.5 | 42% | 1.81 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 119.5 | 33% | 2.25 | — |
| Total significant strikes over 139.5 | 23% | 3.00 | — |
| Malcolm Wellmaker significant strikes over 59.5 | 31% | 2.20 | — |
| Finish before Round 3 | 33% | 2.06 | ✓ won |
| Otari Tanzilovi takedowns over 2.5 | 36% | 1.83 | — |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1 | 18% | 3.70 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends before decision | 39% | 1.66 | ✓ won |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO | 34% | 1.90 | ✓ won |
| Under 2.5 rounds | 36% | 1.80 | ✓ won |
| Total takedowns over 3.5 | 30% | 2.15 | — |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2 | 11% | 5.70 | ✓ won |
| Malcolm Wellmaker significant strikes over 69.5 | 21% | 2.75 | — |
| Total takedowns over 4.5 | 20% | 2.75 | — |
| Total knockdowns over 0.5 | 38% | 1.38 | — |
| Malcolm Wellmaker significant strikes over 79.5 | 15% | 3.50 | — |
| Fight ends by Submission | 5% | 10.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by Submission in R1 | 3% | 19.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3 | 6% | 8.50 | ✗ lost |
| Otari Tanzilovi wins by Submission in R1 | 1% | 34.00 | ✗ lost |
| Otari Tanzilovi wins by Submission in R1 or R2 | 2% | 21.00 | ✗ lost |
| Otari Tanzilovi wins by SUB | 3% | 17.00 | ✗ lost |
| Otari Tanzilovi takedowns over 3.5 | 21% | 2.25 | — |
| Total takedowns over 5.5 | 13% | 3.40 | — |
| Malcolm Wellmaker wins by Submission in R1 or R2 | 2% | 23.00 | ✗ lost |
| Malcolm Wellmaker wins by SUB | 2% | 19.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by Submission in R2 | 2% | 26.00 | ✗ lost |
| Malcolm Wellmaker wins by Submission in R1 | 1% | 34.00 | ✗ lost |
| Otari Tanzilovi wins by Submission in R2 | 1% | 46.00 | ✗ lost |
| Malcolm Wellmaker wins by Submission in R2 or R3 | 1% | 34.00 | ✗ lost |
| Malcolm Wellmaker wins by Submission in R2 | 1% | 51.00 | ✗ lost |
| Malcolm Wellmaker significant strikes over 89.5 | 8% | 4.50 | — |
| Otari Tanzilovi takedowns over 4.5 | 11% | 2.88 | — |
| Malcolm Wellmaker wins by KO or Sub | 14% | 2.12 | ✗ lost |
| Total significant strikes over 149.5 | 8% | 3.50 | — |
| Fight ends by Submission in R3 | 1% | 34.00 | ✗ lost |
| Malcolm Wellmaker wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2 | 10% | 2.80 | ✗ lost |
| Malcolm Wellmaker wins by KO/TKO | 12% | 2.30 | ✗ lost |
| Malcolm Wellmaker wins by KO/TKO in R1 | 6% | 4.40 | ✗ lost |
| Total takedowns over 6.5 | 6% | 4.50 | — |
| Malcolm Wellmaker wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3 | 6% | 4.50 | ✗ lost |
| Malcolm Wellmaker wins by KO/TKO in R2 | 4% | 6.75 | ✗ lost |
| Malcolm Wellmaker wins by KO/TKO in R3 | 2% | 10.50 | ✗ lost |
| Malcolm Wellmaker wins by finish in Round 1 | 7% | 2.60 | ✗ lost |
| Total knockdowns over 1.5 | 3% | 5.30 | — |
| Malcolm Wellmaker significant strikes over 99.5 | 2% | 6.00 | — |
Model Prediction
Gerald Meerschaert
31%
KO 2%·
Sub 24%·
Dec 4%
Julius Walker
✓ won
69%
KO 32%·
Sub 7%·
Dec 31%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Julius Walker wins | 72% | 1.31 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Julius Walker wins by KO/TKO | 33% | 1.84 | ✓ predicted |
| Finish round Finish in Round 1 | 37% | — | missed |
| Every Sportsbet market | Model prob | Odds | Bet result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Walker wins by DEC value | 32% | 8.50 | ✗ lost |
| Julius Walker wins by Decision value | 32% | 8.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight goes to Decision | 36% | 4.90 | ✗ lost |
| Fight goes to decision | 36% | 4.60 | ✗ lost |
| Julius Walker wins by Sub or Decision value | 39% | 4.10 | ✗ lost |
| Gerald Meerschaert wins by Submission in R1 | 13% | 11.50 | ✗ lost |
| Gerald Meerschaert wins by Submission in R1 or R2 | 20% | 7.25 | ✗ lost |
| Gerald Meerschaert wins by SUB | 22% | 5.80 | ✗ lost |
| Fight reaches Round 3 | 43% | 2.88 | ✗ lost |
| Gerald Meerschaert wins by finish in Round 1 | 14% | 8.50 | ✗ lost |
| Gerald Meerschaert wins by KO or Sub | 25% | 4.50 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by Submission in R1 | 17% | 6.50 | ✗ lost |
| Gerald Meerschaert wins by Submission in R2 | 7% | 16.00 | ✗ lost |
| Gerald Meerschaert wins by Sub or Decision | 26% | 4.00 | ✗ lost |
| Under 2.5 rounds | 61% | 1.72 | ✓ won |
| Julius Walker wins by KO or Decision | 65% | 1.55 | ✓ won |
| Gerald Meerschaert wins | 28% | 3.50 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by Submission | 29% | 3.30 | ✗ lost |
| Julius Walker wins | 72% | 1.31 | ✓ won |
| Finish before Round 2 | 37% | 2.37 | ✗ lost |
| Gerald Meerschaert wins in R3+ or by Decision | 12% | 7.00 | ✗ lost |
| Gerald Meerschaert wins by finish in Round 1 | 14% | 5.75 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by Submission in R2 | 9% | 9.00 | ✗ lost |
| Over 2.5 rounds | 39% | 2.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends before decision | 64% | 1.17 | ✓ won |
| Gerald Meerschaert wins by finish in Round 2 | 7% | 10.00 | ✗ lost |
| Julius Walker wins by KO/TKO in R1 | 19% | 3.60 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1 | 20% | 3.35 | ✗ lost |
| Julius Walker wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2 | 29% | 2.15 | ✓ won |
| Julius Walker wins by KO/TKO | 33% | 1.84 | ✓ won |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO | 35% | 1.68 | ✓ won |
| Julius Walker wins by KO or Sub | 40% | 1.48 | ✓ won |
| Julius Walker wins by Submission in R1 | 4% | 12.50 | ✗ lost |
| Gerald Meerschaert wins by Submission in R3 | 3% | 19.00 | ✗ lost |
| Julius Walker wins by KO/TKO in R2 | 10% | 4.90 | ✓ won |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2 | 11% | 4.50 | ✓ won |
| Julius Walker wins by Submission in R1 or R2 | 6% | 7.75 | ✗ lost |
| Julius Walker wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3 | 14% | 3.45 | ✓ won |
| Julius Walker wins by SUB | 7% | 6.75 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by Submission in R3 | 3% | 13.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by finish in Round 3 | 7% | 5.90 | ✗ lost |
| Gerald Meerschaert wins by KO or Decision | 6% | 6.75 | ✗ lost |
| Gerald Meerschaert wins by KO/TKO in R1 | 1% | 31.00 | ✗ lost |
| Gerald Meerschaert wins by DEC | 4% | 10.50 | ✗ lost |
| Julius Walker wins by finish in Round 1 | 23% | 1.76 | ✗ lost |
| Gerald Meerschaert wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2 | 2% | 19.00 | ✗ lost |
| Julius Walker wins by KO/TKO in R3 | 4% | 9.75 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3 | 4% | 8.75 | ✗ lost |
| Julius Walker wins by Submission in R2 or R3 | 3% | 12.00 | ✗ lost |
| Gerald Meerschaert wins by KO/TKO | 2% | 15.00 | ✗ lost |
| Julius Walker wins by Submission in R2 | 2% | 16.00 | ✗ lost |
| Gerald Meerschaert wins by KO/TKO in R2 | 1% | 41.00 | ✗ lost |
| Julius Walker wins by Submission in R3 | 1% | 34.00 | ✗ lost |
| Gerald Meerschaert wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3 | 1% | 26.00 | ✗ lost |
Model Prediction
Ismael Bonfim
35%
KO 4%·
Sub 4%·
Dec 27%
Francisco Prado
✓ won
65%
KO 22%·
Sub 18%·
Dec 26%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Francisco Prado wins | 62% | 1.59 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Francisco Prado wins by Decision | 25% | 5.80 | missed |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 54% | 2.19 | missed |
| Every Sportsbet market | Model prob | Odds | Bet result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Francisco Prado wins by Sub or Decision value | 41% | 3.45 | ✗ lost |
| Francisco Prado wins by DEC | 25% | 5.80 | ✗ lost |
| Francisco Prado wins in R3+ or by Decision value | 39% | 3.60 | ✗ lost |
| Francisco Prado wins by Submission in R1 or R2 | 14% | 9.25 | ✗ lost |
| Francisco Prado wins by SUB | 17% | 7.50 | ✗ lost |
| Fight goes to decision | 54% | 2.19 | ✗ lost |
| Fight goes to Decision | 54% | 2.15 | ✗ lost |
| Francisco Prado wins by Submission in R1 | 8% | 14.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by Submission | 21% | 5.40 | ✗ lost |
| Francisco Prado wins by Submission in R2 | 5% | 21.00 | ✗ lost |
| Over 2.5 rounds | 58% | 1.90 | ✗ lost |
| Fight reaches Round 3 | 63% | 1.70 | ✗ lost |
| Francisco Prado wins by Submission in R2 or R3 | 8% | 12.50 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by Submission in R1 | 10% | 10.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by Submission in R2 | 7% | 15.00 | ✗ lost |
| Ismael Bonfim wins by DEC | 29% | 3.35 | ✗ lost |
| Francisco Prado wins | 62% | 1.59 | ✓ won |
| Ismael Bonfim wins by Sub or Decision | 34% | 2.85 | ✗ lost |
| Ismael Bonfim wins by Decision | 29% | 3.25 | ✗ lost |
| Ismael Bonfim wins | 38% | 2.36 | ✗ lost |
| Ismael Bonfim wins by KO or Decision | 34% | 2.60 | ✗ lost |
| Francisco Prado wins by KO or Decision | 45% | 1.92 | ✓ won |
| Fight ends by Submission in R3 | 4% | 21.00 | ✗ lost |
| Francisco Prado wins by Submission in R3 | 3% | 26.00 | ✗ lost |
| Finish before Round 3 | 37% | 2.08 | ✓ won |
| Francisco Prado wins by KO or Sub | 37% | 2.07 | ✓ won |
| Under 2.5 rounds | 42% | 1.80 | ✓ won |
| Fight ends before decision | 46% | 1.63 | ✓ won |
| Fight ends by finish in Round 2 | 15% | 5.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by finish in Round 1 | 23% | 3.25 | ✓ won |
| Ismael Bonfim wins by SUB | 4% | 15.00 | ✗ lost |
| Ismael Bonfim wins by Submission in R1 or R2 | 4% | 18.00 | ✗ lost |
| Ismael Bonfim wins by Submission in R2 | 1% | 41.00 | ✗ lost |
| Ismael Bonfim wins by Submission in R3 | 1% | 71.00 | ✗ lost |
| Francisco Prado wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2 | 17% | 3.50 | ✓ won |
| Fight ends by finish in Round 3 | 9% | 6.75 | ✗ lost |
| Ismael Bonfim wins by KO or Sub | 9% | 6.50 | ✗ lost |
| Ismael Bonfim wins by Submission in R1 | 2% | 26.00 | ✗ lost |
| Francisco Prado wins by KO/TKO in R1 | 10% | 5.50 | ✓ won |
| Francisco Prado wins by KO/TKO | 20% | 2.70 | ✓ won |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO | 25% | 2.20 | ✓ won |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1 | 12% | 4.40 | ✓ won |
| Francisco Prado wins by KO/TKO in R2 | 7% | 8.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2 | 8% | 6.50 | ✗ lost |
| Francisco Prado wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3 | 10% | 4.90 | ✗ lost |
| Ismael Bonfim wins by KO/TKO | 4% | 9.50 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3 | 5% | 8.75 | ✗ lost |
| Ismael Bonfim wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2 | 4% | 11.00 | ✗ lost |
| Ismael Bonfim wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3 | 2% | 17.00 | ✗ lost |
| Francisco Prado wins by KO/TKO in R3 | 4% | 10.00 | ✗ lost |
| Ismael Bonfim wins by KO/TKO in R3 | 1% | 46.00 | ✗ lost |
| Ismael Bonfim wins by KO/TKO in R1 | 2% | 17.00 | ✗ lost |
| Ismael Bonfim wins by KO/TKO in R2 | 1% | 26.00 | ✗ lost |
Model Prediction
Niko Price
✓ won
71%
KO 32%·
Sub 8%·
Dec 32%
Leon Shahbazyan
29%
KO 2%·
Sub 19%·
Dec 8%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Niko Price wins value | 55% | 2.13 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Niko Price wins by KO/TKO | 24% | 3.30 | ✓ predicted |
| Finish round Finish in Round 1 | 36% | — | ✓ predicted |
| Every Sportsbet market | Model prob | Odds | Bet result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Niko Price wins by DEC value | 24% | 8.50 | ✗ lost |
| Fight goes to Decision | 36% | 5.30 | ✗ lost |
| Fight goes to decision | 36% | 5.20 | ✗ lost |
| Niko Price wins by Decision value | 24% | 7.50 | ✗ lost |
| Leon Shahbazyan wins in R3+ or by Decision | 21% | 8.50 | ✗ lost |
| Fight reaches Round 3 | 45% | 3.66 | ✗ lost |
| Leon Shahbazyan wins by DEC | 12% | 13.00 | ✗ lost |
| Niko Price wins by KO or Sub value | 31% | 5.00 | ✓ won |
| Niko Price wins by KO or Decision value | 48% | 2.50 | ✓ won |
| Niko Price wins value | 55% | 2.13 | ✓ won |
| Over 2.5 rounds | 41% | 2.75 | ✗ lost |
| Leon Shahbazyan wins by Submission in R2 | 9% | 12.50 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by Submission in R2 | 10% | 9.25 | ✗ lost |
| Leon Shahbazyan wins by Submission in R3 | 4% | 23.00 | ✗ lost |
| Leon Shahbazyan wins by Sub or Decision | 43% | 2.20 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by Submission in R3 | 5% | 18.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by finish in Round 2 | 18% | 4.60 | ✗ lost |
| Niko Price wins by KO/TKO in R1 | 14% | 6.00 | ✓ won |
| Under 2.5 rounds | 59% | 1.40 | ✓ won |
| Niko Price wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2 | 21% | 3.90 | ✓ won |
| Niko Price wins by KO/TKO | 24% | 3.30 | ✓ won |
| Niko Price wins by KO or Sub | 31% | 2.60 | ✓ won |
| Niko Price wins by finish in Round 1 | 17% | 4.50 | ✓ won |
| Leon Shahbazyan wins | 45% | 1.72 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by finish in Round 3 | 9% | 8.75 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by Submission | 36% | 2.12 | ✗ lost |
| Leon Shahbazyan wins by SUB | 30% | 2.50 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends before decision | 64% | 1.14 | ✓ won |
| Leon Shahbazyan wins by Submission in R1 or R2 | 26% | 2.75 | ✗ lost |
| Niko Price wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3 | 10% | 6.75 | ✗ lost |
| Leon Shahbazyan wins by KO or Decision | 15% | 4.50 | ✗ lost |
| Finish before Round 3 | 55% | 1.25 | ✓ won |
| Niko Price wins by KO/TKO in R2 | 7% | 9.50 | ✗ lost |
| Leon Shahbazyan wins by KO or Sub | 33% | 1.88 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO | 27% | 2.25 | ✓ won |
| Niko Price wins by SUB | 6% | 10.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by Submission in R1 | 21% | 2.95 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2 | 8% | 7.75 | ✗ lost |
| Niko Price wins by Submission in R1 or R2 | 5% | 11.50 | ✗ lost |
| Niko Price wins by Submission in R1 | 4% | 17.00 | ✗ lost |
| Leon Shahbazyan wins by Submission in R1 | 17% | 3.35 | ✗ lost |
| Niko Price wins by KO/TKO in R3 | 3% | 17.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1 | 16% | 3.60 | ✓ won |
| Niko Price wins by finish in Round 1 | 17% | 3.10 | ✓ won |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3 | 4% | 14.00 | ✗ lost |
| Niko Price wins by Submission in R2 or R3 | 3% | 19.00 | ✗ lost |
| Leon Shahbazyan wins by finish in Round 1 | 19% | 2.50 | ✗ lost |
| Niko Price wins by Submission in R2 | 2% | 26.00 | ✗ lost |
| Niko Price wins by Submission in R3 | 1% | 51.00 | ✗ lost |
| Leon Shahbazyan wins by finish in Round 1 | 19% | 2.03 | ✗ lost |
| Leon Shahbazyan wins by KO/TKO in R2 | 1% | 29.00 | ✗ lost |
| Leon Shahbazyan wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3 | 1% | 19.00 | ✗ lost |
| Leon Shahbazyan wins by KO/TKO | 3% | 6.00 | ✗ lost |
| Leon Shahbazyan wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2 | 2% | 6.50 | ✗ lost |
| Leon Shahbazyan wins by KO/TKO in R1 | 2% | 7.75 | ✗ lost |
Model Prediction
Brendson Ribeiro
✓ won
16%
KO 8%·
Sub 3%·
Dec 6%
Felipe Franco
84%
KO 40%·
Sub 6%·
Dec 38%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Felipe Franco wins | 79% | 1.24 | missed |
| Method Felipe Franco wins by KO/TKO | 38% | 2.80 | missed |
| Finish round Finish in Round 1 | 33% | — | ✓ predicted |
| Every Sportsbet market | Model prob | Odds | Bet result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Felipe Franco wins by DEC value | 36% | 7.25 | ✗ lost |
| Felipe Franco wins by Decision value | 36% | 6.50 | ✗ lost |
| Fight goes to Decision | 43% | 4.70 | ✗ lost |
| Fight goes to decision | 43% | 4.65 | ✗ lost |
| Fight reaches Round 3 | 52% | 3.14 | ✗ lost |
| Felipe Franco wins by KO or Decision value | 74% | 2.10 | ✗ lost |
| Felipe Franco wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3 | 16% | 6.75 | ✗ lost |
| Felipe Franco wins by KO/TKO | 38% | 2.80 | ✗ lost |
| Over 2.5 rounds | 48% | 2.20 | ✗ lost |
| Felipe Franco wins by KO/TKO in R3 | 6% | 17.00 | ✗ lost |
| Felipe Franco wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2 | 32% | 3.15 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO | 48% | 2.10 | ✗ lost |
| Brendson Ribeiro wins in R3+ or by Decision | 11% | 9.25 | ✗ lost |
| Felipe Franco wins | 79% | 1.24 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3 | 7% | 13.00 | ✗ lost |
| Felipe Franco wins by KO/TKO in R1 | 22% | 4.40 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1 | 28% | 3.45 | ✗ lost |
| Felipe Franco wins by KO/TKO in R2 | 10% | 9.50 | ✗ lost |
| Felipe Franco wins by Sub or Decision | 42% | 2.10 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2 | 12% | 7.00 | ✗ lost |
| Brendson Ribeiro wins | 21% | 4.10 | ✓ won |
| Brendson Ribeiro wins by KO or Decision | 17% | 5.00 | ✗ lost |
| Under 2.5 rounds | 52% | 1.61 | ✓ won |
| Brendson Ribeiro wins by DEC | 7% | 12.00 | ✗ lost |
| Brendson Ribeiro wins by Sub or Decision | 11% | 7.00 | ✓ won |
| Brendson Ribeiro wins by KO/TKO | 10% | 7.50 | ✗ lost |
| Brendson Ribeiro wins by KO or Sub | 14% | 5.30 | ✓ won |
| Brendson Ribeiro wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2 | 8% | 8.50 | ✗ lost |
| Brendson Ribeiro wins by KO/TKO in R1 | 6% | 12.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by finish in Round 3 | 9% | 7.75 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends before decision | 57% | 1.17 | ✓ won |
| Finish before Round 3 | 48% | 1.33 | ✓ won |
| Brendson Ribeiro wins by KO/TKO in R3 | 2% | 41.00 | ✗ lost |
| Brendson Ribeiro wins by finish in Round 1 | 8% | 8.00 | ✓ won |
| Felipe Franco wins by KO or Sub | 43% | 1.43 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by finish in Round 2 | 15% | 4.10 | ✗ lost |
| Brendson Ribeiro wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3 | 4% | 14.00 | ✗ lost |
| Brendson Ribeiro wins by KO/TKO in R2 | 3% | 21.00 | ✗ lost |
| Brendson Ribeiro wins by Submission in R1 | 2% | 23.00 | ✓ won |
| Brendson Ribeiro wins by SUB | 4% | 13.00 | ✓ won |
| Brendson Ribeiro wins by finish in Round 1 | 8% | 6.00 | ✓ won |
| Brendson Ribeiro wins by Submission in R1 or R2 | 3% | 15.00 | ✓ won |
| Felipe Franco wins by finish in Round 1 | 25% | 1.64 | ✗ lost |
| Brendson Ribeiro wins by Submission in R2 | 1% | 34.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by Submission | 9% | 2.40 | ✓ won |
| Fight ends by Submission in R3 | 1% | 15.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by Submission in R1 | 5% | 3.90 | ✓ won |
| Fight ends by Submission in R2 | 2% | 8.00 | ✗ lost |
| Felipe Franco wins by Submission in R2 or R3 | 2% | 6.75 | ✗ lost |
| Felipe Franco wins by SUB | 6% | 2.80 | ✗ lost |
| Felipe Franco wins by Submission in R3 | 1% | 17.00 | ✗ lost |
| Felipe Franco wins by Submission in R1 or R2 | 5% | 3.15 | ✗ lost |
| Felipe Franco wins by Submission in R1 | 3% | 4.40 | ✗ lost |
| Felipe Franco wins by Submission in R2 | 1% | 9.50 | ✗ lost |
Model Prediction
Allen Frye Jr.
✓ won
46%
KO 20%·
Sub 6%·
Dec 19%
RJ Harris
54%
KO 23%·
Sub 8%·
Dec 23%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner RJ Harris wins | 69% | 1.25 | missed |
| Method RJ Harris wins by KO/TKO | 30% | 2.40 | missed |
| Finish round Finish in Round 1 | 34% | — | ✓ predicted |
| Every Sportsbet market | Model prob | Odds | Bet result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fight goes to decision | 42% | 4.25 | ✗ lost |
| RJ Harris wins by DEC value | 29% | 6.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight goes to Decision | 42% | 4.10 | ✗ lost |
| Allen Frye Jr. wins by DEC | 13% | 11.50 | ✗ lost |
| Allen Frye Jr. wins by Sub or Decision | 17% | 8.25 | ✗ lost |
| Ends in Round 3+ / Decision | 51% | 2.61 | ✗ lost |
| RJ Harris wins in R3+ or by Decision | 35% | 3.60 | ✗ lost |
| Allen Frye Jr. wins in R3+ or by Decision | 16% | 8.00 | ✗ lost |
| Allen Frye Jr. wins | 31% | 4.00 | ✓ won |
| Allen Frye Jr. wins by KO or Decision | 27% | 4.30 | ✓ won |
| RJ Harris wins by KO or Decision | 59% | 1.79 | ✗ lost |
| Fight reaches Round 2 | 66% | 1.55 | ✗ lost |
| RJ Harris wins by Sub or Decision | 39% | 2.45 | ✗ lost |
| Under 2.5 rounds | 53% | 1.80 | ✓ won |
| Over 2.5 rounds | 47% | 2.00 | ✗ lost |
| Allen Frye Jr. wins by Submission in R1 or R2 | 3% | 26.00 | ✗ lost |
| Allen Frye Jr. wins by KO or Sub | 18% | 5.00 | ✓ won |
| Allen Frye Jr. wins by SUB | 4% | 21.00 | ✗ lost |
| RJ Harris wins | 69% | 1.25 | ✗ lost |
| Allen Frye Jr. wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2 | 12% | 7.50 | ✓ won |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1 | 25% | 3.40 | ✓ won |
| Allen Frye Jr. wins by KO/TKO in R1 | 8% | 10.50 | ✓ won |
| Allen Frye Jr. wins by finish in Round 1 | 10% | 8.00 | ✓ won |
| Allen Frye Jr. wins by KO/TKO | 14% | 6.00 | ✓ won |
| Allen Frye Jr. wins by Submission in R1 | 2% | 34.00 | ✗ lost |
| RJ Harris wins by KO/TKO in R1 | 17% | 4.60 | ✗ lost |
| Finish before Round 2 | 34% | 2.34 | ✓ won |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO | 43% | 1.79 | ✓ won |
| Allen Frye Jr. wins by Submission in R2 | 1% | 71.00 | ✗ lost |
| RJ Harris wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2 | 25% | 2.90 | ✗ lost |
| RJ Harris wins by KO/TKO | 30% | 2.40 | ✗ lost |
| Allen Frye Jr. wins by Submission in R2 or R3 | 2% | 41.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends before decision | 58% | 1.20 | ✓ won |
| Allen Frye Jr. wins by KO/TKO in R2 | 4% | 19.00 | ✗ lost |
| RJ Harris wins by finish in Round 1 | 23% | 2.87 | ✗ lost |
| Allen Frye Jr. wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3 | 6% | 11.50 | ✗ lost |
| Allen Frye Jr. wins by finish in Round 1 | 10% | 6.00 | ✓ won |
| RJ Harris wins by KO or Sub | 40% | 1.52 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2 | 11% | 5.40 | ✗ lost |
| Allen Frye Jr. wins by Submission in R3 | 1% | 91.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3 | 7% | 8.50 | ✗ lost |
| RJ Harris wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3 | 12% | 4.60 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by finish in Round 3 | 9% | 6.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by finish in Round 2 | 15% | 3.60 | ✗ lost |
| RJ Harris wins by KO/TKO in R3 | 5% | 11.50 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by Submission in R1 | 8% | 6.25 | ✗ lost |
| RJ Harris wins by KO/TKO in R2 | 8% | 6.75 | ✗ lost |
| Allen Frye Jr. wins by KO/TKO in R3 | 2% | 23.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by Submission | 15% | 3.35 | ✗ lost |
| RJ Harris wins by finish in Round 1 | 23% | 1.83 | ✗ lost |
| RJ Harris wins by Submission in R1 | 6% | 7.00 | ✗ lost |
| RJ Harris wins by SUB | 10% | 3.80 | ✗ lost |
| RJ Harris wins by Submission in R1 or R2 | 9% | 4.50 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by Submission in R2 | 4% | 9.25 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by Submission in R3 | 2% | 15.00 | ✗ lost |
| RJ Harris wins by Submission in R3 | 2% | 17.00 | ✗ lost |
| RJ Harris wins by Submission in R2 | 3% | 10.00 | ✗ lost |
Model Prediction
Daria Zhelezniakova
29%
KO 4%·
Sub 4%·
Dec 21%
Alice Pereira
✓ won
71%
KO 17%·
Sub 16%·
Dec 38%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Alice Pereira wins | 61% | 1.71 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Alice Pereira wins by Decision | 33% | 2.70 | missed |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 61% | 2.47 | missed |
| Every Sportsbet market | Model prob | Odds | Bet result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alice Pereira wins by Submission in R1 | 7% | 41.00 | ✗ lost |
| Alice Pereira wins by Submission in R1 or R2 | 11% | 26.00 | ✗ lost |
| Alice Pereira wins by SUB value | 14% | 21.00 | ✗ lost |
| Alice Pereira wins by Submission in R2 | 4% | 61.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by Submission value | 19% | 12.50 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by Submission in R1 | 10% | 23.00 | ✗ lost |
| Alice Pereira wins by Submission in R2 or R3 | 6% | 34.00 | ✗ lost |
| Alice Pereira wins by Submission in R3 | 2% | 91.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by Submission in R2 | 6% | 31.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by Submission in R3 | 3% | 51.00 | ✗ lost |
| Daria Zhelezniakova wins by Submission in R1 | 3% | 46.00 | ✗ lost |
| Daria Zhelezniakova wins by Submission in R1 or R2 | 4% | 29.00 | ✗ lost |
| Alice Pereira wins by Sub or Decision | 47% | 2.50 | ✗ lost |
| Daria Zhelezniakova wins by SUB | 5% | 23.00 | ✗ lost |
| Alice Pereira wins by KO or Sub | 28% | 4.00 | ✓ won |
| Alice Pereira wins by finish in Round 1 | 15% | 7.50 | ✓ won |
| Finish before Round 2 | 21% | 5.20 | ✓ won |
| Alice Pereira wins | 61% | 1.71 | ✓ won |
| Daria Zhelezniakova wins by Submission in R2 | 2% | 67.00 | ✗ lost |
| Alice Pereira wins in R3+ or by Decision | 42% | 2.40 | ✗ lost |
| Under 2.5 rounds | 35% | 2.75 | ✓ won |
| Fight ends before decision | 39% | 2.47 | ✓ won |
| Fight goes to decision | 61% | 1.50 | ✗ lost |
| Fight goes to Decision | 61% | 1.48 | ✗ lost |
| Fight reaches Round 2 | 79% | 1.14 | ✗ lost |
| Over 2.5 rounds | 65% | 1.40 | ✗ lost |
| Daria Zhelezniakova wins by DEC | 28% | 3.20 | ✗ lost |
| Alice Pereira wins by DEC | 33% | 2.70 | ✗ lost |
| Alice Pereira wins by KO or Decision | 48% | 1.78 | ✓ won |
| Daria Zhelezniakova wins by Submission in R3 | 1% | 101.00 | ✗ lost |
| Daria Zhelezniakova wins | 39% | 2.15 | ✗ lost |
| Alice Pereira wins by finish in Round 2 | 9% | 9.50 | ✗ lost |
| Daria Zhelezniakova wins by KO or Decision | 34% | 2.25 | ✗ lost |
| Alice Pereira wins by finish in Round 1 | 15% | 5.00 | ✓ won |
| Daria Zhelezniakova wins in R3+ or by Decision | 26% | 2.85 | ✗ lost |
| Alice Pereira wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2 | 12% | 5.75 | ✓ won |
| Alice Pereira wins by KO/TKO in R1 | 8% | 9.00 | ✓ won |
| Alice Pereira wins by KO/TKO | 15% | 4.70 | ✓ won |
| Fight ends by finish in Round 3 | 6% | 10.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1 | 11% | 5.90 | ✓ won |
| Daria Zhelezniakova wins by KO or Sub | 10% | 5.50 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO | 20% | 2.85 | ✓ won |
| Alice Pereira wins by KO/TKO in R2 | 4% | 12.50 | ✗ lost |
| Alice Pereira wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3 | 7% | 8.00 | ✗ lost |
| Daria Zhelezniakova wins by finish in Round 1 | 6% | 9.50 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2 | 6% | 8.00 | ✗ lost |
| Alice Pereira wins by KO/TKO in R3 | 2% | 18.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3 | 3% | 11.50 | ✗ lost |
| Daria Zhelezniakova wins by finish in Round 1 | 6% | 6.75 | ✗ lost |
| Daria Zhelezniakova wins by KO/TKO in R1 | 3% | 13.00 | ✗ lost |
| Daria Zhelezniakova wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2 | 5% | 8.00 | ✗ lost |
| Daria Zhelezniakova wins by KO/TKO | 5% | 6.50 | ✗ lost |
| Daria Zhelezniakova wins by finish in Round 2 | 3% | 10.50 | ✗ lost |
| Daria Zhelezniakova wins by KO or Sub | 10% | 2.90 | ✗ lost |
| Daria Zhelezniakova wins by KO/TKO in R2 | 2% | 17.00 | ✗ lost |
| Daria Zhelezniakova wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3 | 3% | 11.00 | ✗ lost |
| Daria Zhelezniakova wins by KO/TKO in R3 | 1% | 23.00 | ✗ lost |
Model Prediction
Melissa Gatto
✓ won
70%
KO 15%·
Sub 13%·
Dec 41%
Ernesta Kareckaite
30%
KO 4%·
Sub 1%·
Dec 25%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Melissa Gatto wins | 59% | 1.83 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Melissa Gatto wins by Decision | 35% | 2.65 | ✓ predicted |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 68% | 3.30 | pending |
| Every Sportsbet market | Model prob | Odds | Bet result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Melissa Gatto wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2 | 11% | 23.00 | ✓ won |
| Melissa Gatto wins by KO/TKO | 13% | 18.00 | ✓ won |
| Melissa Gatto wins by KO/TKO in R1 | 6% | 34.00 | ✓ won |
| Melissa Gatto wins by KO/TKO in R2 | 4% | 46.00 | ✓ won |
| Melissa Gatto wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3 | 6% | 29.00 | ✓ won |
| Melissa Gatto wins by KO/TKO in R3 | 2% | 61.00 | ✓ won |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R1 | 9% | 13.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO | 18% | 6.50 | — |
| Melissa Gatto wins by KO or Sub | 24% | 5.00 | ✓ won |
| Melissa Gatto wins by finish in Round 1 | 12% | 9.50 | ✓ won |
| Finish before Round 3 | 26% | 4.25 | ✗ lost |
| Melissa Gatto wins by KO or Decision | 48% | 2.35 | ✓ won |
| Melissa Gatto wins | 59% | 1.83 | ✓ won |
| Fight ends before decision | 32% | 3.30 | — |
| Melissa Gatto wins in R3+ or by Decision | 43% | 2.35 | ✓ won |
| Under 2.5 rounds | 29% | 3.50 | — |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R2 | 6% | 17.00 | ✗ lost |
| Melissa Gatto wins by DEC | 35% | 2.65 | ✓ won |
| Fight reaches Round 2 | 84% | 1.10 | ✓ won |
| Melissa Gatto wins by Sub or Decision | 46% | 1.94 | ✓ won |
| Fight goes to decision | 68% | 1.30 | — |
| Over 2.5 rounds | 71% | 1.25 | — |
| Fight goes to Decision | 68% | 1.29 | — |
| Fight ends by finish in Round 2 | 10% | 8.75 | ✗ lost |
| Ernesta Kareckaite wins by Decision | 34% | 2.62 | ✗ lost |
| Ernesta Kareckaite wins by Sub or Decision | 35% | 2.40 | ✗ lost |
| Ernesta Kareckaite wins by DEC | 34% | 2.50 | ✗ lost |
| Ernesta Kareckaite wins | 41% | 2.01 | ✗ lost |
| Melissa Gatto wins by finish in Round 1 | 12% | 6.50 | ✓ won |
| Ernesta Kareckaite wins by KO or Decision | 39% | 2.03 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by Submission in R1 | 7% | 11.50 | ✗ lost |
| Melissa Gatto wins by Submission in R1 | 6% | 13.00 | ✓ won |
| Melissa Gatto wins by Submission in R1 or R2 | 9% | 8.00 | ✓ won |
| Fight ends by Submission | 13% | 5.60 | — |
| Ernesta Kareckaite wins by Submission in R1 | 1% | 71.00 | ✗ lost |
| Melissa Gatto wins by SUB | 11% | 6.25 | ✓ won |
| Ernesta Kareckaite wins by Submission in R1 or R2 | 2% | 41.00 | ✗ lost |
| Ernesta Kareckaite wins by SUB | 2% | 34.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by KO/TKO in R3 | 3% | 21.00 | — |
| Fight ends by Submission in R2 | 4% | 15.00 | ✗ lost |
| Melissa Gatto wins by Submission in R2 | 4% | 17.00 | ✓ won |
| Ernesta Kareckaite wins by KO or Sub | 8% | 7.50 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by finish in Round 3 | 5% | 11.00 | — |
| Ernesta Kareckaite wins by Submission in R2 | 1% | 91.00 | ✗ lost |
| Ernesta Kareckaite wins by KO/TKO in R1 | 3% | 18.00 | ✗ lost |
| Ernesta Kareckaite wins by KO/TKO in R1 or R2 | 5% | 11.00 | ✗ lost |
| Ernesta Kareckaite wins by KO/TKO | 6% | 8.75 | ✗ lost |
| Ernesta Kareckaite wins by Submission in R2 or R3 | 1% | 51.00 | ✗ lost |
| Ernesta Kareckaite wins by KO/TKO in R2 | 2% | 23.00 | ✗ lost |
| Fight ends by Submission in R3 | 2% | 18.00 | — |
| Melissa Gatto wins by Submission in R3 | 2% | 21.00 | ✓ won |
| Ernesta Kareckaite wins by KO/TKO in R2 or R3 | 3% | 14.00 | ✗ lost |
| Ernesta Kareckaite wins by finish in Round 1 | 4% | 9.50 | ✗ lost |
| Ernesta Kareckaite wins by KO/TKO in R3 | 1% | 29.00 | ✗ lost |