⟁ Past Events — Predictions vs. Actual Results
46 of 53
confident picks landed — when the model gives a fighter 70%+ it has been right 87% of the time
10–16
betting record with the same amount on every recommended bet (-8.1 units — early days, small sample)
Bankroll curve
$1000 per event · Conservative tier · opening odds
−$452
UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje (2026-06-15) — -26 this event · -26 total · 2W-2L
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi 2 (2026-06-20) — +109 this event · +84 total · 1W-1L
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres (2026-06-27) — -216 this event · -132 total · 1W-5L
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 (2026-07-11) — -200 this event · -332 total · 0W-2L
UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman (2026-07-18) — +38 this event · -294 total · 3W-1L
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov (2026-07-25) — -102 this event · -396 total · 1W-3L
UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez (2026-08-01) — -56 this event · -452 total · 2W-2L
2026-06-15
peak $126 · trough $-495
2026-08-01
UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez
2026-08-01 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly ·
−$56
Pick
Fight
Odds
Stake
Result
Mateusz Rebecki wins
Kyle Prepolec vs Mateusz Rebecki
1.18
$80
✓ won
+$14
Oban Elliott wins
Oban Elliott vs Michael Oliveira
3.57
$80
✗ lost
−$80
Bogdan Grad wins
Dennis Buzukja vs Bogdan Grad
1.52
$62
✓ won
+$32
Fight goes to Decision
Daniel Rodriguez vs Uros Medic
7.25
$22
✗ lost
−$22
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov
2026-07-25 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly ·
−$102
Pick
Fight
Odds
Stake
Result
Nurullo Aliev wins
Mike Davis vs Nurullo Aliev
1.54
$80
✓ won
+$43
Tyrell Fortune wins
Rizvan Kuniev vs Tyrell Fortune
3.34
$80
✗ lost
−$80
Damian Rzepecki wins
Magomed Zaynukov vs Damian Rzepecki
3.73
$43
✗ lost
−$43
Dustin Jacoby wins
Dustin Jacoby vs Muhammad Said
1.59
$23
✗ lost
−$23
UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman
2026-07-18 · $1000 Conservative · Kelly ·
+$38
Pick
Fight
Odds
Stake
Result
Chase Hooper wins
Chase Hooper vs Mitch Ramirez
1.27
$80
✓ won
+$22
Christian Leroy Duncan wins
Jared Cannonier vs Christian Leroy Duncan
1.32
$80
✓ won
+$26
Dricus Du Plessis wins by SUB
Kamaru Usman vs Dricus Du Plessis
9.25
$55
✗ lost
−$55
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani wins
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs Seokhyeon Ko
2.66
$28
✓ won
+$46
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2
2026-07-11 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly ·
−$200
Pick
Fight
Odds
Stake
Result
Elisha Ellison wins
Gable Steveson vs Elisha Ellison
10.00
$138
✗ lost
−$138
Benoit Saint Denis wins
Paddy Pimblett vs Benoit Saint Denis
1.53
$62
✗ lost
−$62
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres
2026-06-27 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly ·
−$216
Pick
Fight
Odds
Stake
Result
Manuel Torres wins
Rafael Fiziev vs Manuel Torres
1.96
$115
✗ lost
−$115
Eric Nolan wins by Sub or Decision
Eric Nolan vs Farman Hasanov
5.30
$70
✗ lost
−$70
Matheus Camilo wins
Nazim Sadykhov vs Matheus Camilo
2.99
$48
✓ won
+$95
Ends in Round 3+ / Decision
Julius Walker vs Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev
3.92
$44
✗ lost
−$44
Fight reaches Round 2
Julius Walker vs Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev
2.17
$44
✗ lost
−$44
Michel Pereira wins
Michel Pereira vs Shara Magomedov
3.82
$37
✗ lost
−$37
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi 2
2026-06-20 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly ·
+$109
Pick
Fight
Odds
Stake
Result
Luana Santos wins
Karol Rosa vs Luana Santos
1.97
$157
✓ won
+$152
Kyoji Horiguchi wins by KO/TKO
Kyoji Horiguchi vs Manel Kape
11.50
$43
✗ lost
−$43
UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje
2026-06-15 · $1000 Balanced · Kelly ·
−$26
Pick
Fight
Odds
Stake
Result
Josh Hokit wins by KO or Decision
Derrick Lewis vs Josh Hokit
1.78
$73
✓ won
+$57
Ilia Topuria wins by DEC
Justin Gaethje vs Ilia Topuria
13.00
$57
✗ lost
−$57
Steve Garcia wins
Steve Garcia vs Diego Lopes
2.48
$52
✗ lost
−$52
Bo Nickal wins by KO or Decision
Kyle Daukaus vs Bo Nickal
1.71
$38
✓ won
+$27
UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez
2026-08-01 · $33/parlay ·
+$37
2-leg parlay @ 1.79 · $33 stake
✓ WON
+$26
3-leg parlay @ 2.31 · $33 stake
✓ WON
+$43
4-leg parlay @ 5.28 · $33 stake
✗ LOST
−$33
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov
2026-07-25 · $33/parlay ·
−$99
2-leg parlay @ 2.45 · $33 stake
✗ LOST
−$33
3-leg parlay @ 4.82 · $33 stake
✗ LOST
−$33
4-leg parlay @ 7.24 · $33 stake
✗ LOST
−$33
UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman
2026-07-18 · $33/parlay ·
−$99
2-leg parlay @ 2.24 · $33 stake
✗ LOST
−$33
3-leg parlay @ 4.22 · $33 stake
✗ LOST
−$33
4-leg parlay @ 5.36 · $33 stake
✗ LOST
−$33
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2
2026-07-11 · $33/parlay ·
−$99
2-leg parlay @ 1.99 · $33 stake
✗ LOST
−$33
3-leg parlay @ 3.02 · $33 stake
✗ LOST
−$33
4-leg parlay @ 4.74 · $33 stake
✗ LOST
−$33