Updated 2026-11-14 12:32 AEST
12
Bouts
1
Events
New here? How to read these predictions
Win probability
Our model's estimate that a fighter wins — e.g. 72% means we'd expect them to win roughly 7 of 10 times.
Confidence interval (CI)
The range the true probability likely falls in. Wider = less certain. A pick'em fight has a wide band; a clear favourite a narrow one.
Edge
How much higher our probability is than the bookmaker's implied odds. Positive edge = we think it's underpriced.
EV (expected value)
Average return if you placed the bet many times. +15% EV means about 15c profit per $1 staked, on average.
Risk tiers
Conservative leans to safe favourites, Balanced blends, Aggressive chases bigger-odds longshots. Pick what suits you.
Edge badges
Strong / Solid / Slight edge rank how much value the model sees — and how big a stake it suggests. They're not a promise the bet wins.

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Israel Adesanya
Adesanya
Main Event
60%
Model Leans Magomedov
2026-12-06
Shara Magomedov
Magomedov
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs Magomedov
2026
06
DEC
⚡ Next Event

UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs Magomedov

ANB Arena, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
12
Bouts
Israel Adesanya
Israel Adesanya
Nigeria 24-6-0 Freestyle Switch Stance 4-fight loss streak
40% | 60%
Middleweight 5 rds
⏱ Sun 6 Dec · 4:00 AM AEST
Shara Magomedov
Shara Magomedov
Russia 16-1-0 Orthodox 2-fight win streak
Model Favourite
Shara Magomedov
60.1 %
Confidence · Medium · sub-models broadly agree
Why this pick
  • Shara Magomedov lands 1.5 more sig strikes per minute
  • Shara Magomedov rides a 2-fight longer win streak
  • Israel Adesanya is on a losing run 4 fight(s) longer than Shara Magomedov
  • the case against Israel Adesanya eats 0.4 fewer strikes per minute
  • Shara Magomedov out-volumes opponents at 5.5 sig/min vs Israel Adesanya's 4.0
Method Breakdown
Adesanya Magomedov
KO/TKO 25.3
48.9
Submission 0.1
0.1
Decision 14.5
11.1
Finish Distribution · By Round
26
R1
22
R2
13
R3
7
R4
6
R5
26
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Adesanya Magomedov
Str/min 4.0
5.5
Sig Acc 48%
63%
Str Def 56%
45%
TD/min 0.00
0.00
Finish 47%
29%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
72
67
AdesanyaMagomedov
Combined 141 22–249
Takedowns
0.0
0.0
AdesanyaMagomedov
Combined 0.4 0.0–4.5
Fight length
Expected 2.6 of 5 rounds 26% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Magomedov

    Shara Magomedov lands 1.5 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Magomedov

    Shara Magomedov rides a 2-fight longer win streak

  • 03 Strikes absorbed favours Adesanya

    Israel Adesanya eats 0.4 fewer strikes per minute

  • 04 Loss streak favours Magomedov

    Israel Adesanya is on a losing run 4 fight(s) longer than Shara Magomedov

  • 05 Finish rate favours Adesanya

    Israel Adesanya finishes 47% of fights, Shara Magomedov 29%

  • 06 Striking accuracy favours Magomedov

    Shara Magomedov lands 63% of significant strikes thrown, Israel Adesanya 48%

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
Sportsbet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Yaroslav Amosov
Yaroslav Amosov
Ukraine 29-1-0 2-fight win streak
58% | 42%
Welterweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 6 Dec · 4:00 AM AEST
Ian Machado Garry
Ian Machado Garry
Ireland 17-1-0 Orthodox 1 loss
Model Favourite
Yaroslav Amosov
57.8 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Yaroslav Amosov eats 1.2 fewer strikes per minute
  • Yaroslav Amosov wins by submission in 100% of fights, Ian Machado Garry in 0%
  • Yaroslav Amosov hits 0.69 more takedowns per minute
  • the case against Ian Machado Garry lands 1.6 more sig strikes per minute
  • Ian Machado Garry out-volumes opponents at 4.3 sig/min vs Yaroslav Amosov's 2.6
Method Breakdown
Amosov Garry
KO/TKO 3.5
19.1
Submission 24.8
3.6
Decision 29.5
19.4
Finish Distribution · By Round
27
R1
16
R2
8
R3
49
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Amosov Garry
Str/min 2.6
4.3
Sig Acc 53%
54%
Str Def 61%
53%
TD/min 0.74
0.05
Finish 100%
25%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
25
43
AmosovGarry
Combined 82 18–131
Takedowns
1.7
0.1
AmosovGarry
Combined 2.9 0.0–6.2
Fight length
Expected 2.0 of 3 rounds 49% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Amosov

    Yaroslav Amosov eats 1.2 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Submission rate favours Amosov

    Yaroslav Amosov wins by submission in 100% of fights, Ian Machado Garry in 0%

  • 03 Takedown volume favours Amosov

    Yaroslav Amosov hits 0.69 more takedowns per minute

  • 04 Finish rate favours Amosov

    Yaroslav Amosov finishes 100% of fights, Ian Machado Garry 25%

  • 05 Striking volume favours Garry

    Ian Machado Garry lands 1.6 more sig strikes per minute

  • 06 Win streak favours Amosov

    Yaroslav Amosov rides a 2-fight longer win streak

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
Sportsbet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Serghei Spivac
Serghei Spivac
18-6-0 Sambo Orthodox 1 loss
13% | 87%
Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 6 Dec · 4:00 AM AEST
Mario Pinto
Mario Pinto
Portugal 12-0-0 MMA Orthodox 4-fight win streak
Model Favourite
Mario Pinto
86.7 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Mario Pinto eats 2.4 fewer strikes per minute
  • Mario Pinto rides a 4-fight longer win streak
  • Mario Pinto stops 100% of takedown attempts, Serghei Spivac 53%
  • the case against Serghei Spivac wins by submission in 19% of fights, Mario Pinto in 0%
  • Mario Pinto rides a 4-fight win streak (Serghei Spivac: 0)
Method Breakdown
Spivac Pinto
KO/TKO 0.1
33.7
Submission 4.0
4.8
Decision 9.2
48.2
Finish Distribution · By Round
22
R1
14
R2
7
R3
57
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Spivac Pinto
Str/min 3.4
3.5
Sig Acc 47%
69%
Str Def 51%
59%
TD/min 0.23
0.31
Finish 62%
75%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
21
42
SpivacPinto
Combined 56 15–112
Takedowns
0.1
1.1
SpivacPinto
Combined 1.2 0.0–4.9
Fight length
Expected 2.2 of 3 rounds 57% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Pinto

    Mario Pinto eats 2.4 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Pinto

    Mario Pinto rides a 4-fight longer win streak

  • 03 Takedown defence favours Pinto

    Mario Pinto stops 100% of takedown attempts, Serghei Spivac 53%

  • 04 KO rate favours Pinto

    Mario Pinto wins by knockout in 75% of fights, Serghei Spivac in 44%

  • 05 Striking accuracy favours Pinto

    Mario Pinto lands 69% of significant strikes thrown, Serghei Spivac 47%

  • 06 Submission rate favours Spivac

    Serghei Spivac wins by submission in 19% of fights, Mario Pinto in 0%

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
Sportsbet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
LC
Levan Chokheli
Georgia 14-3-0 MMA Orthodox 1 win
36% | 64%
Welterweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 6 Dec · 1:00 AM AEST
Islam Dulatov
Islam Dulatov
Russia 12-1-0 MMA Orthodox 1 win
Model Favourite
Islam Dulatov
63.5 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Islam Dulatov is favoured at 64% — fight-history features sparse
  • Levan Chokheli has 1 UFC fight — too little to compare fight stats, so this pick leans on age, size and pre-UFC record
Method Breakdown
Chokheli Dulatov
KO/TKO 12.0
31.6
Submission 5.4
13.9
Decision 19.0
18.1
Finish Distribution · By Round
36
R1
20
R2
6
R3
37
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Chokheli Dulatov
Str/min 9.9
5.1
Sig Acc 52%
51%
Str Def 100%
48%
TD/min 0.02
0.00
Finish 88%
100%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
30
27
ChokheliDulatov
Combined 64 15–135
Takedowns
0.0
0.1
ChokheliDulatov
Combined 1.1 0.0–4.2
Fight length
Expected 1.8 of 3 rounds 37% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Model lean favours Dulatov

    Islam Dulatov is favoured at 64% — fight-history features sparse

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
Sportsbet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
MS
Mairon Santos
4-0-0 Orthodox 4-fight win streak
74% | 26%
Lightweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 6 Dec · 1:00 AM AEST
AA
Akbar Abdullaev
Kyrgyzstan 1-0-0
Model Favourite
Mairon Santos
74.0 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Mairon Santos is favoured at 74% — fight-history features sparse
  • Akbar Abdullaev has no UFC fights — too little to compare fight stats, so this pick leans on age, size and pre-UFC record
Method Breakdown
Santos Abdullaev
KO/TKO 43.9
7.4
Submission 6.5
5.5
Decision 23.6
13.0
Finish Distribution · By Round
35
R1
19
R2
10
R3
37
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Santos Abdullaev
Str/min 3.3
0.0
Sig Acc 48%
0%
Str Def 66%
0%
TD/min 0.01
0.00
Finish 50%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
29
19
SantosAbdullaev
Combined 52 16–121
Takedowns
0.0
0.1
SantosAbdullaev
Combined 1.0 0.0–4.4
Fight length
Expected 1.8 of 3 rounds 37% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Model lean favours Santos

    Mairon Santos is favoured at 74% — fight-history features sparse

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
Sportsbet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Ion Cutelaba
Ion Cutelaba
20-11-1 Sambo Southpaw 1 loss
17% | 83%
Light Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 6 Dec · 1:00 AM AEST
MT
Magomed Tuchalov
Russia 1 win
Model Favourite
Magomed Tuchalov
83.4 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Magomed Tuchalov is favoured at 83% — fight-history features sparse
  • Magomed Tuchalov has 1 UFC fight — too little to compare fight stats, so this pick leans on age, size and pre-UFC record
Method Breakdown
Cutelaba Tuchalov
KO/TKO 4.9
37.2
Submission 3.7
9.4
Decision 8.1
36.8
Finish Distribution · By Round
31
R1
18
R2
7
R3
45
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Cutelaba Tuchalov
Str/min 4.1
2.3
Sig Acc 44%
44%
Str Def 46%
67%
TD/min 0.27
0.53
Finish 67%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
29
30
CutelabaTuchalov
Combined 52 18–126
Takedowns
0.6
1.5
CutelabaTuchalov
Combined 2.1 0.0–6.0
Fight length
Expected 1.9 of 3 rounds 45% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Model lean favours Tuchalov

    Magomed Tuchalov is favoured at 83% — fight-history features sparse

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
Sportsbet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Bruno Silva
Bruno Silva
Brazil 15-8-2 Grappler Orthodox
24% | 76%
Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 6 Dec · 1:00 AM AEST
Jafel Filho
Jafel Filho
Brazil 17-5-0 Grappler Orthodox 1 loss
Model Favourite
Jafel Filho
76.2 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Jafel Filho is favoured at 76% — fight-history features sparse
  • Bruno Silva has no UFC fights — too little to compare fight stats, so this pick leans on age, size and pre-UFC record
Method Breakdown
Silva Filho
KO/TKO 3.1
8.1
Submission 6.6
37.1
Decision 14.1
31.0
Finish Distribution · By Round
29
R1
17
R2
9
R3
45
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Silva Filho
Str/min 0.0
1.6
Sig Acc 0%
40%
Str Def 0%
52%
TD/min 0.00
0.16
Finish 0%
67%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
21
28
SilvaFilho
Combined 51 14–113
Takedowns
0.1
1.7
SilvaFilho
Combined 2.6 0.0–5.4
Fight length
Expected 2.0 of 3 rounds 45% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Model lean favours Filho

    Jafel Filho is favoured at 76% — fight-history features sparse

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
Sportsbet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Uran Satybaldiev
Uran Satybaldiev
Kyrgyzstan 8-1-0 MMA Orthodox 1 win
56% | 44%
Light Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 6 Dec · 1:00 AM AEST
IG
Ivan Gnizditskiy
Russia 0-0-0
Model Favourite
Uran Satybaldiev
56.0 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Uran Satybaldiev is favoured at 56% — fight-history features sparse
  • Ivan Gnizditskiy has no UFC fights — too little to compare fight stats, so this pick leans on age, size and pre-UFC record
Method Breakdown
Satybaldiev Gnizditskiy
KO/TKO 18.7
21.6
Submission 20.3
7.0
Decision 17.1
15.3
Finish Distribution · By Round
40
R1
17
R2
11
R3
32
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Satybaldiev Gnizditskiy
Str/min 2.4
0.0
Sig Acc 29%
0%
Str Def 45%
0%
TD/min 0.02
0.00
Finish 52%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
26
25
SatybaldievGnizditskiy
Combined 45 15–134
Takedowns
0.3
0.0
SatybaldievGnizditskiy
Combined 1.4 0.0–4.4
Fight length
Expected 1.7 of 3 rounds 32% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Model lean favours Satybaldiev

    Uran Satybaldiev is favoured at 56% — fight-history features sparse

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
Sportsbet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
JunYong Park
JunYong Park
South Korea 19-7-0 Boxing Orthodox 1 loss
43% | 57%
Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 6 Dec · 1:00 AM AEST
Marco Tulio
Marco Tulio
Brazil 14-3-0 Striker Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
Model Favourite
Marco Tulio
57.3 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Marco Tulio lands 2.4 more sig strikes per minute
  • Marco Tulio eats 0.7 fewer strikes per minute
  • Marco Tulio wins by knockout in 75% of fights, JunYong Park in 8%
  • the case against JunYong Park stops 55% of takedown attempts, Marco Tulio 0%
  • Marco Tulio out-volumes opponents at 7.1 sig/min vs JunYong Park's 4.6
Method Breakdown
Park Tulio
KO/TKO 9.3
21.0
Submission 12.9
4.7
Decision 20.5
31.6
Finish Distribution · By Round
24
R1
15
R2
8
R3
52
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Park Tulio
Str/min 4.6
7.1
Sig Acc 52%
55%
Str Def 51%
56%
TD/min 0.11
0.06
Finish 38%
75%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
43
44
ParkTulio
Combined 83 19–169
Takedowns
1.1
0.1
ParkTulio
Combined 1.9 0.0–4.2
Fight length
Expected 2.1 of 3 rounds 52% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Tulio

    Marco Tulio lands 2.4 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Tulio

    Marco Tulio eats 0.7 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 KO rate favours Tulio

    Marco Tulio wins by knockout in 75% of fights, JunYong Park in 8%

  • 04 Takedown defence favours Park

    JunYong Park stops 55% of takedown attempts, Marco Tulio 0%

  • 05 Finish rate favours Tulio

    Marco Tulio finishes 75% of fights, JunYong Park 38%

  • 06 Submission rate favours Park

    JunYong Park wins by submission in 23% of fights, Marco Tulio in 0%

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
Sportsbet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
MO
Mehemmedeli Osmanli
Azerbaijan 13-2-0 MMA
33% | 67%
Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 6 Dec · 1:00 AM AEST
PA
Pavel Andrusca
8-0-0 Orthodox 1 win
Model Favourite
Pavel Andrusca
66.7 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Pavel Andrusca is favoured at 67% — fight-history features sparse
  • Mehemmedeli Osmanli has no UFC fights — too little to compare fight stats, so this pick leans on age, size and pre-UFC record
Method Breakdown
Osmanli Andrusca
KO/TKO 5.7
10.5
Submission 9.2
30.6
Decision 18.4
25.5
Finish Distribution · By Round
33
R1
14
R2
9
R3
44
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Osmanli Andrusca
Str/min 0.0
3.4
Sig Acc 0%
47%
Str Def 0%
67%
TD/min 0.00
0.23
Finish 0%
11%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
13
29
OsmanliAndrusca
Combined 48 17–115
Takedowns
0.1
1.5
OsmanliAndrusca
Combined 1.9 0.0–5.1
Fight length
Expected 1.9 of 3 rounds 44% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Model lean favours Andrusca

    Pavel Andrusca is favoured at 67% — fight-history features sparse

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
Sportsbet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
MD
Matthieu Duclos
1-0-0 Orthodox 1 win
47% | 53%
Middleweight 3 rds
MR
Modestino Rodrigues
Brazil 1-0-0
Model Favourite
Modestino Rodrigues
53.1 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Modestino Rodrigues is favoured at 53% — fight-history features sparse
  • Matthieu Duclos has 1 UFC fight — too little to compare fight stats, so this pick leans on age, size and pre-UFC record
Method Breakdown
Duclos Rodrigues
KO/TKO 20.1
24.9
Submission 7.3
10.5
Decision 19.4
17.7
Finish Distribution · By Round
34
R1
19
R2
10
R3
37
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Duclos Rodrigues
Str/min 3.8
0.0
Sig Acc 43%
0%
Str Def 56%
0%
TD/min 0.02
0.00
Finish 90%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
25
23
DuclosRodrigues
Combined 57 16–128
Takedowns
0.0
0.0
DuclosRodrigues
Combined 1.5 0.0–4.5
Fight length
Expected 1.8 of 3 rounds 37% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Model lean favours Rodrigues

    Modestino Rodrigues is favoured at 53% — fight-history features sparse

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
Sportsbet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
AH
Abdul Hussein
15-2-0 Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 1 win
37% | 63%
Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 6 Dec · 1:00 AM AEST
Hecher Sosa
Hecher Sosa
15-1-0 MMA Orthodox 1 win
Model Favourite
Hecher Sosa
63.2 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Hecher Sosa is favoured at 63% — fight-history features sparse
  • Abdul Hussein has 1 UFC fight — too little to compare fight stats, so this pick leans on age, size and pre-UFC record
Method Breakdown
Hussein Sosa
KO/TKO 8.1
15.8
Submission 11.1
6.9
Decision 17.7
40.6
Finish Distribution · By Round
22
R1
13
R2
7
R3
58
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Hussein Sosa
Str/min 4.7
6.9
Sig Acc 60%
47%
Str Def 46%
63%
TD/min 0.08
0.00
Finish 87%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
34
43
HusseinSosa
Combined 90 18–155
Takedowns
1.0
0.0
HusseinSosa
Combined 1.7 0.0–4.5
Fight length
Expected 2.2 of 3 rounds 58% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Model lean favours Sosa

    Hecher Sosa is favoured at 63% — fight-history features sparse

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
Sportsbet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.