Updated 2026-11-05 20:19 AEST
4
Bouts
1
Events
2
Value Bets
New here? How to read these predictions
Win probability
Our model's estimate that a fighter wins — e.g. 72% means we'd expect them to win roughly 7 of 10 times.
Confidence interval (CI)
The range the true probability likely falls in. Wider = less certain. A pick'em fight has a wide band; a clear favourite a narrow one.
Edge
How much higher our probability is than the bookmaker's implied odds. Positive edge = we think it's underpriced.
EV (expected value)
Average return if you placed the bet many times. +15% EV means about 15c profit per $1 staked, on average.
Risk tiers
Conservative leans to safe favourites, Balanced blends, Aggressive chases bigger-odds longshots. Pick what suits you.
Edge badges
Strong / Solid / Slight edge rank how much value the model sees — and how big a stake it suggests. They're not a promise the bet wins.

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Manel Kape
Kape
Title · Main Event
79%
Model Leans Van
2027-01-30
Joshua Van
Van
UFC 336: Van vs. Kape
2027
30
JAN
⚡ Next Event

UFC 336: Van vs. Kape

Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, Canada
4
Bouts
2
Value Bouts
Manel Kape
Manel Kape
22-7-0 MMA Southpaw 4-fight win streak
SB 2.10
21% | 79%
Flyweight 5 rds
⏱ Sat 30 Jan · 2:30 PM AEST
Joshua Van
C Joshua Van
Myanmar 17-2-0 Freestyle Orthodox 8-fight win streak
SB 1.72
1 value bet on Sportsbet
Model Favourite
Joshua Van
78.8 %
Market · 55% on Van · Moirai +24 pts
Confidence · High · sub-models agree closely
Why this pick
  • Joshua Van lands 3.6 more sig strikes per minute
  • Joshua Van rides a 4-fight longer win streak
  • the case against Manel Kape eats 1.9 fewer strikes per minute
  • Joshua Van rides a 8-fight win streak (Manel Kape: 4)
Method Breakdown
Kape Van
KO/TKO 7.5
38.5
Submission 2.2
2.9
Decision 11.6
37.3
Finish Distribution · By Round
20
R1
14
R2
10
R3
3
R4
4
R5
49
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Kape Van
Str/min 4.7
8.3
Sig Acc 55%
58%
Str Def 57%
57%
TD/min 0.02
0.05
Finish 55%
42%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
73
81
KapeVan
Combined 157 23–282
Takedowns
0.5
0.0
KapeVan
Combined 0.3 0.0–4.6
Fight length
Expected 3.3 of 5 rounds 49% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Kape

    Manel Kape eats 1.9 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Van

    Joshua Van lands 3.6 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Win streak favours Van

    Joshua Van rides a 4-fight longer win streak

  • 04 Finish rate favours Kape

    Manel Kape finishes 55% of fights, Joshua Van 42%

  • 05 KO rate favours Kape

    Manel Kape wins by knockout in 55% of fights, Joshua Van in 42%

  • 06 Takedown defence favours Kape

    Manel Kape stops 79% of takedown attempts, Joshua Van 75%

Value Bets · Sportsbet 1 flagged · 2 markets analysed
  • Joshua Van wins
    Strong edge
    Priced at 64%
    Break-even 58% fair 55%
    EV / $100 +$11
    Stake 3.7%
    1.72
    $37 of $1,000 returns $64
    +$27 profit
Carlos Prates
Carlos Prates
Brazil 24-7-0 Striker Switch Stance 3-fight win streak
SB 1.53
31% | 69%
Welterweight 5 rds
⏱ Sat 30 Jan · 1:45 PM AEST
Michael Morales
Michael Morales
Orthodox 7-fight win streak
SB 2.39
1 value bet on Sportsbet
Model Favourite
Michael Morales
69.0 %
Market · 39% on Morales · Moirai +30 pts
Confidence · Medium · sub-models broadly agree
Why this pick
  • Michael Morales eats 1.1 fewer strikes per minute
  • Michael Morales rides a 4-fight longer win streak
  • Michael Morales lands 1.9 more sig strikes per minute
  • the case against Carlos Prates finishes 88% of fights, Michael Morales 71%
  • Michael Morales rides a 7-fight win streak (Carlos Prates: 3)
Method Breakdown
Prates Morales
KO/TKO 18.6
25.9
Submission 3.7
2.8
Decision 8.7
40.3
Finish Distribution · By Round
17
R1
14
R2
10
R3
6
R4
4
R5
49
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Prates Morales
Str/min 4.4
6.2
Sig Acc 54%
50%
Str Def 48%
57%
TD/min 0.01
0.02
Finish 88%
71%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
51
72
PratesMorales
Combined 125 20–260
Takedowns
0.0
0.0
PratesMorales
Combined 0.4 0.0–3.7
Fight length
Expected 3.4 of 5 rounds 49% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Morales

    Michael Morales eats 1.1 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Morales

    Michael Morales rides a 4-fight longer win streak

  • 03 Striking volume favours Morales

    Michael Morales lands 1.9 more sig strikes per minute

  • 04 Finish rate favours Prates

    Carlos Prates finishes 88% of fights, Michael Morales 71%

  • 05 KO rate favours Prates

    Carlos Prates wins by knockout in 88% of fights, Michael Morales in 71%

  • 06 Takedown defence favours Morales

    Michael Morales stops 88% of takedown attempts, Carlos Prates 79%

Value Bets · Sportsbet 1 flagged · 2 markets analysed
  • Michael Morales wins
    Strong edge
    Priced at 50%
    Break-even 42% fair 39%
    EV / $100 +$19
    Stake 3.4%
    2.39
    $34 of $1,000 returns $81
    +$47 profit
TB
TBA
— | —
No model pick
3 rds ⏱ Sun 31 Jan · 10:00 AM AEST
OT
Opponent TBA
⟁ No model pick — one fighter has no fight-record data in any source (typically a promotional debut), so the model can't price this bout.
TB
TBA
— | —
No model pick
3 rds ⏱ Sun 31 Jan · 8:00 AM AEST
OT
Opponent TBA
⟁ No model pick — one fighter has no fight-record data in any source (typically a promotional debut), so the model can't price this bout.