Updated 2026-10-06 11:07 AEST
3
Bouts
0
Events
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Win probability
Our model's estimate that a fighter wins — e.g. 72% means we'd expect them to win roughly 7 of 10 times.
Confidence interval (CI)
The range the true probability likely falls in. Wider = less certain. A pick'em fight has a wide band; a clear favourite a narrow one.
Edge
How much higher our probability is than the bookmaker's implied odds. Positive edge = we think it's underpriced.
EV (expected value)
Average return if you placed the bet many times. +15% EV means about 15c profit per $1 staked, on average.
Risk tiers
Conservative leans to safe favourites, Balanced blends, Aggressive chases bigger-odds longshots. Pick what suits you.
Edge badges
Strong / Solid / Slight edge rank how much value the model sees — and how big a stake it suggests. They're not a promise the bet wins.

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Charles Oliveira
Oliveira
Main Event
51%
Model Leans Oliveira
2026-12-12
Diego Lopes
Lopes
UFC 335: Oliveira vs. Lopes
2026
12
DEC
⚡ Next Event

UFC 335: Oliveira vs. Lopes

T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, USA
3
Bouts
Charles Oliveira
Charles Oliveira
Brazil 37-11-0 Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 2-fight win streak
51% | 49%
Lightweight 5 rds
⏱ Sun 13 Dec · 12:00 PM AEST
Diego Lopes
Diego Lopes
Brazil 27-8-0 Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 1 win
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Charles Oliveira
51.4 %
050100
CI · 21 – 81 · σ 0.071 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Charles Oliveira eats 1.6 fewer strikes per minute
  • Charles Oliveira finishes 31% more of their wins
  • Charles Oliveira taps opponents 36% more often
  • the case against Diego Lopes lands 0.7 more sig strikes per minute
  • Charles Oliveira has never been finished in 37 fights
Method Breakdown
Oliveira Lopes
KO/TKO 14.4
27.7
Submission 23.6
8.1
Decision 13.4
12.8
Finish Distribution · By Round
37
R1
22
R2
9
R3
0
R4
5
R5
26
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Oliveira Lopes
Str/min 3.2
3.9
Sig Acc 56%
47%
Str Def 49%
47%
TD/min 0.15
0.06
Finish 81%
50%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
32
41
OliveiraLopes
Combined 78 18–141
Takedowns
1.6
0.0
OliveiraLopes
Combined 1.5 0.0–4.6
Fight length
Expected 2.3 of 5 rounds 26% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Oliveira

    Charles Oliveira eats 1.6 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Finish rate favours Oliveira

    Charles Oliveira finishes 31% more of their wins

  • 03 Submission rate favours Oliveira

    Charles Oliveira taps opponents 36% more often

  • 04 Striking volume favours Lopes

    Diego Lopes lands 0.7 more sig strikes per minute

  • 05 Win streak favours Oliveira

    Charles Oliveira rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 06 Takedown defence favours Lopes

    Diego Lopes stuffs 19% more incoming takedowns

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Joe Pyfer
Joe Pyfer
United States 16-3-0 Boxing Orthodox 4-fight win streak
49% | 51%
Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 13 Dec · 10:00 AM AEST
Bo Nickal
Bo Nickal
United States 8-1-0 Wrestler Southpaw 2-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Bo Nickal
51.0 %
050100
CI · 21 – 81 · σ 0.091 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Bo Nickal eats 1.3 fewer strikes per minute
  • Bo Nickal stuffs 33% more incoming takedowns
  • Bo Nickal is 18% more accurate on the feet
  • the case against Joe Pyfer rides a 2-fight longer win streak
  • Joe Pyfer rides a 4-fight win streak (Bo Nickal: 2)
Method Breakdown
Pyfer Nickal
KO/TKO 30.2
17.3
Submission 7.7
6.3
Decision 11.1
27.5
Finish Distribution · By Round
31
R1
20
R2
11
R3
39
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Pyfer Nickal
Str/min 3.5
3.4
Sig Acc 43%
62%
Str Def 53%
60%
TD/min 0.08
0.16
Finish 75%
86%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
31
32
PyferNickal
Combined 70 18–114
Takedowns
0.0
1.1
PyferNickal
Combined 1.8 0.0–4.6
Fight length
Expected 1.9 of 3 rounds 39% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Nickal

    Bo Nickal eats 1.3 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Pyfer

    Joe Pyfer rides a 2-fight longer win streak

  • 03 Takedown defence favours Nickal

    Bo Nickal stuffs 33% more incoming takedowns

  • 04 Striking accuracy favours Nickal

    Bo Nickal is 18% more accurate on the feet

  • 05 Finish rate favours Nickal

    Bo Nickal finishes 11% more of their wins

  • 06 Control time favours Nickal

    Bo Nickal controls 23% more cage time

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
TB
TBA
— | —
No model pick
3 rds ⏱ Sun 13 Dec · 8:00 AM AEST
OT
Opponent TBA
Breakdown ▼
⟁ No model pick — one fighter has no fight-record data in any source (typically a promotional debut), so the model can't price this bout.