Updated 2026-09-20 22:31 AEST
12
Bouts
0
Events
New here? How to read these predictions
Win probability
Our model's estimate that a fighter wins — e.g. 72% means we'd expect them to win roughly 7 of 10 times.
Confidence interval (CI)
The range the true probability likely falls in. Wider = less certain. A pick'em fight has a wide band; a clear favourite a narrow one.
Edge
How much higher our probability is than the bookmaker's implied odds. Positive edge = we think it's underpriced.
EV (expected value)
Average return if you placed the bet many times. +15% EV means about 15c profit per $1 staked, on average.
Risk tiers
Conservative leans to safe favourites, Balanced blends, Aggressive chases bigger-odds longshots. Pick what suits you.
Edge badges
Strong / Solid / Slight edge rank how much value the model sees — and how big a stake it suggests. They're not a promise the bet wins.

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Josh Hokit
Hokit
Main Event
56%
Model Leans Gane
2026-11-14
Ciryl Gane
Gane
UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit
2026
14
NOV
⚡ Next Event

UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit

Madison Square Garden, New York, USA
12
Bouts
Josh Hokit
Josh Hokit
United States 9-0-0 Wrestling Orthodox 4-fight win streak
44% | 56%
Heavyweight 5 rds
⏱ Sun 15 Nov · 12:00 PM AEST
Ciryl Gane
Ciryl Gane
France 13-2-0 Muay Thai Orthodox 1 win
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Ciryl Gane
56.1 %
050100
CI · 26 – 86 · σ 0.094 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Ciryl Gane eats 3.8 fewer strikes per minute
  • the case against Josh Hokit lands 4.9 more sig strikes per minute
  • Josh Hokit out-volumes opponents at 10.3 sig/min vs Ciryl Gane's 5.4
Method Breakdown
Hokit Gane
KO/TKO 18.5
25.7
Submission 11.0
5.4
Decision 14.4
25.1
Finish Distribution · By Round
26
R1
16
R2
9
R3
6
R4
4
R5
39
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Hokit Gane
Str/min 10.3
5.4
Sig Acc 64%
62%
Str Def 48%
61%
TD/min 0.10
0.04
Finish 75%
57%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
49
53
HokitGane
Combined 101 23–216
Takedowns
0.6
0.1
HokitGane
Combined 1.0 0.0–4.2
Fight length
Expected 2.9 of 5 rounds 39% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Gane

    Ciryl Gane eats 3.8 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Hokit

    Josh Hokit lands 4.9 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Win streak favours Hokit

    Josh Hokit rides a 3-fight longer win streak

  • 04 KO rate favours Hokit

    Josh Hokit finishes by KO 39% more often

  • 05 Takedown defence favours Hokit

    Josh Hokit stuffs 31% more incoming takedowns

  • 06 Finish rate favours Hokit

    Josh Hokit finishes 18% more of their wins

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Amanda Nunes
C Amanda Nunes
Brazil 23-5-0 Striker Orthodox 2-fight win streak
23% | 77%
Women's Bantamweight 5 rds
⏱ Sun 15 Nov · 12:00 PM AEST
Kayla Harrison
Kayla Harrison
United States 19-1-0 Judo Southpaw 3-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Kayla Harrison
76.9 %
050100
CI · 47 – 98 · σ 0.074 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Kayla Harrison eats 1.3 fewer strikes per minute
  • Kayla Harrison taps opponents 50% more often
  • Kayla Harrison rides a 1-fight longer win streak
  • the case against Amanda Nunes finishes by KO 44% more often
  • layoff Nunes hasn't fought since Jun 2023 — ring rust is hard to price, so the model widens its uncertainty here
  • Amanda Nunes has a 15-fight UFC experience edge (18 vs 3)
Method Breakdown
Nunes Harrison
KO/TKO 9.7
16.2
Submission 3.7
22.5
Decision 9.7
38.2
Finish Distribution · By Round
22
R1
11
R2
11
R3
5
R4
3
R5
48
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Nunes Harrison
Str/min 4.5
4.3
Sig Acc 52%
62%
Str Def 59%
66%
TD/min 0.19
0.19
Finish 67%
67%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
40
40
NunesHarrison
Combined 95 21–189
Takedowns
0.4
1.0
NunesHarrison
Combined 1.9 0.0–5.2
Fight length
Expected 3.3 of 5 rounds 48% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Harrison

    Kayla Harrison eats 1.3 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 KO rate favours Nunes

    Amanda Nunes finishes by KO 44% more often

  • 03 Submission rate favours Harrison

    Kayla Harrison taps opponents 50% more often

  • 04 Win streak favours Harrison

    Kayla Harrison rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 05 Striking volume favours Nunes

    Amanda Nunes lands 0.2 more sig strikes per minute

  • 06 Takedown defence favours Harrison

    Kayla Harrison stuffs 19% more incoming takedowns

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Caio Borralho
Caio Borralho
Brazil 18-2-0 MMA Southpaw 1 win
47% | 53%
Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 15 Nov · 12:00 PM AEST
Yousri Belgaroui
Yousri Belgaroui
Netherlands 9-3-0 Striker Orthodox 3-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Yousri Belgaroui
53.0 %
050100
CI · 23 – 83 · σ 0.091 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Yousri Belgaroui lands 5.0 more sig strikes per minute
  • Yousri Belgaroui eats 0.7 fewer strikes per minute
  • Yousri Belgaroui finishes 78% more of their wins
  • the case against Caio Borralho stuffs 17% more incoming takedowns
  • Yousri Belgaroui out-volumes opponents at 8.3 sig/min vs Caio Borralho's 3.3
Method Breakdown
Borralho Belgaroui
KO/TKO 15.9
29.6
Submission 9.1
1.8
Decision 21.9
21.7
Finish Distribution · By Round
29
R1
17
R2
10
R3
44
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Borralho Belgaroui
Str/min 3.3
8.3
Sig Acc 55%
65%
Str Def 60%
70%
TD/min 0.07
0.03
Finish 22%
100%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
35
46
BorralhoBelgaroui
Combined 88 23–142
Takedowns
0.8
0.0
BorralhoBelgaroui
Combined 1.1 0.0–4.1
Fight length
Expected 2.0 of 3 rounds 44% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Belgaroui

    Yousri Belgaroui lands 5.0 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Belgaroui

    Yousri Belgaroui eats 0.7 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 Finish rate favours Belgaroui

    Yousri Belgaroui finishes 78% more of their wins

  • 04 KO rate favours Belgaroui

    Yousri Belgaroui finishes by KO 89% more often

  • 05 Win streak favours Belgaroui

    Yousri Belgaroui rides a 2-fight longer win streak

  • 06 Takedown defence favours Borralho

    Caio Borralho stuffs 17% more incoming takedowns

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Kevin Holland
Kevin Holland
United States 29-15-0 Kung Fu Orthodox 1 win
59% | 41%
Welterweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 15 Nov · 12:00 PM AEST
Uros Medic
Uros Medic
Serbia 13-3-0 MMA Southpaw 4-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Kevin Holland
59.2 %
050100
CI · 29 – 89 · σ 0.065 · High
Why this pick
  • Kevin Holland eats 0.2 fewer strikes per minute
  • Kevin Holland taps opponents 21% more often
  • the case against Uros Medic rides a 3-fight longer win streak
  • Uros Medic rides a 4-fight win streak (Kevin Holland: 1)
Method Breakdown
Holland Medic
KO/TKO 28.5
25.0
Submission 18.6
3.4
Decision 12.1
12.3
Finish Distribution · By Round
48
R1
22
R2
5
R3
24
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Holland Medic
Str/min 4.2
5.3
Sig Acc 50%
58%
Str Def 50%
56%
TD/min 0.06
0.02
Finish 55%
100%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
35
37
HollandMedic
Combined 64 16–138
Takedowns
0.1
0.0
HollandMedic
Combined 0.9 0.0–3.8
Fight length
Expected 1.4 of 3 rounds 25% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Medic

    Uros Medic rides a 3-fight longer win streak

  • 02 Striking volume favours Medic

    Uros Medic lands 1.1 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 KO rate favours Medic

    Uros Medic finishes by KO 58% more often

  • 04 Finish rate favours Medic

    Uros Medic finishes 45% more of their wins

  • 05 Strikes absorbed favours Holland

    Kevin Holland eats 0.2 fewer strikes per minute

  • 06 Submission rate favours Holland

    Kevin Holland taps opponents 21% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Luis Gurule
Luis Gurule
United States 10-3-0 Orthodox 1 loss
32% | 68%
Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 15 Nov · 12:00 PM AEST
BH
Bilal Hasan
United States 1-0-0 nan 1 win
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Bilal Hasan
68.2 %
050100
CI · 38 – 98 · σ 0.074 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Bilal Hasan eats 1.2 fewer strikes per minute
  • Bilal Hasan finishes by KO 56% more often
  • Bilal Hasan finishes 36% more of their wins
  • Bilal Hasan has never been finished in 1 fights
Method Breakdown
Gurule Hasan
KO/TKO 16.6
31.8
Submission 3.2
8.7
Decision 12.0
27.7
Finish Distribution · By Round
38
R1
18
R2
4
R3
40
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Gurule Hasan
Str/min 5.0
5.4
Sig Acc 41%
31%
Str Def 57%
50%
TD/min 0.05
0.10
Finish 40%
76%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
37
40
GuruleHasan
Combined 83 18–150
Takedowns
0.1
0.2
GuruleHasan
Combined 0.9 0.0–4.3
Fight length
Expected 1.8 of 3 rounds 40% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Hasan

    Bilal Hasan eats 1.2 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 KO rate favours Hasan

    Bilal Hasan finishes by KO 56% more often

  • 03 Finish rate favours Hasan

    Bilal Hasan finishes 36% more of their wins

  • 04 Win streak favours Hasan

    Bilal Hasan rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 05 Striking volume favours Hasan

    Bilal Hasan lands 0.4 more sig strikes per minute

  • 06 Durability favours Hasan

    Bilal Hasan has been finished 40% less often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Stephen Thompson
Stephen Thompson
United States 17-9-1 Karate Orthodox 3-fight loss streak
22% | 78%
Welterweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 15 Nov · 10:00 AM AEST
Charles Radtke
Charles Radtke
United States 12-5-0 Orthodox 2-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Charles Radtke
77.7 %
050100
CI · 48 – 98 · σ 0.076 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Charles Radtke eats 0.5 fewer strikes per minute
  • Charles Radtke rides a 2-fight longer win streak
  • Charles Radtke finishes 31% more of their wins
  • the case against Stephen Thompson lands 1.5 more sig strikes per minute
  • Stephen Thompson out-volumes opponents at 4.0 sig/min vs Charles Radtke's 2.5
Method Breakdown
Thompson Radtke
KO/TKO 8.4
20.7
Submission 3.0
28.8
Decision 10.9
28.2
Finish Distribution · By Round
31
R1
14
R2
12
R3
39
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Thompson Radtke
Str/min 4.0
2.5
Sig Acc 46%
54%
Str Def 55%
55%
TD/min 0.02
0.13
Finish 41%
71%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
41
31
ThompsonRadtke
Combined 77 18–140
Takedowns
0.0
1.4
ThompsonRadtke
Combined 2.0 0.0–4.6
Fight length
Expected 1.9 of 3 rounds 40% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Thompson

    Stephen Thompson lands 1.5 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Radtke

    Charles Radtke eats 0.5 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 Win streak favours Radtke

    Charles Radtke rides a 2-fight longer win streak

  • 04 Finish rate favours Radtke

    Charles Radtke finishes 31% more of their wins

  • 05 Takedown defence favours Radtke

    Charles Radtke stuffs 37% more incoming takedowns

  • 06 KO rate favours Radtke

    Charles Radtke finishes by KO 21% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Drew Dober
Drew Dober
United States 29-15-0 Freestyle Southpaw 2-fight win streak
26% | 74%
Lightweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 15 Nov · 10:00 AM AEST
Chris Duncan
Chris Duncan
Scotland 15-3-0 Striker Orthodox 1 loss
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Chris Duncan
73.9 %
050100
CI · 44 – 98 · σ 0.090 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Chris Duncan taps opponents 34% more often
  • Chris Duncan hits 0.15 more takedowns per minute
  • Chris Duncan eats 0.1 fewer strikes per minute
  • the case against Drew Dober rides a 2-fight longer win streak
  • Drew Dober has never been finished in 27 fights
Method Breakdown
Dober Duncan
KO/TKO 10.1
19.7
Submission 3.4
27.4
Decision 12.6
26.8
Finish Distribution · By Round
37
R1
17
R2
6
R3
39
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Dober Duncan
Str/min 4.5
4.6
Sig Acc 41%
46%
Str Def 53%
52%
TD/min 0.04
0.19
Finish 70%
62%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
38
46
DoberDuncan
Combined 67 17–155
Takedowns
0.1
1.2
DoberDuncan
Combined 1.7 0.0–4.7
Fight length
Expected 1.8 of 3 rounds 39% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Dober

    Drew Dober rides a 2-fight longer win streak

  • 02 KO rate favours Dober

    Drew Dober finishes by KO 52% more often

  • 03 Submission rate favours Duncan

    Chris Duncan taps opponents 34% more often

  • 04 Takedown volume favours Duncan

    Chris Duncan hits 0.15 more takedowns per minute

  • 05 Strikes absorbed favours Duncan

    Chris Duncan eats 0.1 fewer strikes per minute

  • 06 Finish rate favours Dober

    Drew Dober finishes 8% more of their wins

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Jim Miller
Jim Miller
United States 39-19-0 Jiu-Jitsu Southpaw 1 win
46% | 54%
Lightweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 15 Nov · 10:00 AM AEST
Terrance McKinney
Terrance McKinney
United States 18-8-0 MMA Switch Stance 1 loss
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Terrance McKinney
54.3 %
050100
CI · 24 – 84 · σ 0.111 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Terrance McKinney lands 4.9 more sig strikes per minute
  • Terrance McKinney finishes 47% more of their wins
  • Terrance McKinney finishes by KO 47% more often
  • the case against Jim Miller eats 1.2 fewer strikes per minute
  • Terrance McKinney out-volumes opponents at 7.8 sig/min vs Jim Miller's 2.9
Method Breakdown
Miller McKinney
KO/TKO 2.3
19.6
Submission 28.7
9.8
Decision 14.7
24.8
Finish Distribution · By Round
39
R1
18
R2
4
R3
40
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Miller McKinney
Str/min 2.9
7.8
Sig Acc 42%
56%
Str Def 57%
42%
TD/min 0.10
0.20
Finish 53%
100%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
19
37
MillerMcKinney
Combined 43 11–138
Takedowns
0.2
1.0
MillerMcKinney
Combined 1.7 0.0–5.0
Fight length
Expected 1.7 of 3 rounds 40% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours McKinney

    Terrance McKinney lands 4.9 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Miller

    Jim Miller eats 1.2 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 Finish rate favours McKinney

    Terrance McKinney finishes 47% more of their wins

  • 04 KO rate favours McKinney

    Terrance McKinney finishes by KO 47% more often

  • 05 Win streak favours Miller

    Jim Miller rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 06 Takedown defence favours McKinney

    Terrance McKinney stuffs 25% more incoming takedowns

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Baisangur Susurkaev
Baisangur Susurkaev
Russia 12-0-0 Striker Orthodox 3-fight win streak
72% | 28%
Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 15 Nov · 10:00 AM AEST
Donte Johnson
Donte Johnson
United States 8-0-0 MMA Southpaw 3-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Baisangur Susurkaev
72.1 %
050100
CI · 42 – 98 · σ 0.071 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Baisangur Susurkaev lands 3.1 more sig strikes per minute
  • Baisangur Susurkaev finishes 33% more of their wins
  • Baisangur Susurkaev taps opponents 33% more often
  • the case against Donte Johnson eats 2.8 fewer strikes per minute
  • Baisangur Susurkaev out-volumes opponents at 6.0 sig/min vs Donte Johnson's 2.9
Method Breakdown
Susurkaev Johnson
KO/TKO 30.3
12.6
Submission 5.9
2.2
Decision 35.9
13.1
Finish Distribution · By Round
26
R1
17
R2
8
R3
49
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Susurkaev Johnson
Str/min 6.0
2.9
Sig Acc 54%
43%
Str Def 59%
63%
TD/min 0.15
0.13
Finish 100%
67%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
36
30
SusurkaevJohnson
Combined 70 18–134
Takedowns
0.5
0.2
SusurkaevJohnson
Combined 1.4 0.0–4.7
Fight length
Expected 2.1 of 3 rounds 49% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Johnson

    Donte Johnson eats 2.8 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Susurkaev

    Baisangur Susurkaev lands 3.1 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Finish rate favours Susurkaev

    Baisangur Susurkaev finishes 33% more of their wins

  • 04 Submission rate favours Susurkaev

    Baisangur Susurkaev taps opponents 33% more often

  • 05 Takedown defence favours Susurkaev

    Baisangur Susurkaev stuffs 23% more incoming takedowns

  • 06 Striking accuracy favours Susurkaev

    Baisangur Susurkaev is 11% more accurate on the feet

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Macy Chiasson
Macy Chiasson
United States 11-6-0 MMA Orthodox 3-fight loss streak
33% | 67%
Women's Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 15 Nov · 8:00 AM AEST
Bia Mesquita
Bia Mesquita
Brazil 6-0-0 Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 3-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Bia Mesquita
67.0 %
050100
CI · 37 – 97 · σ 0.070 · High
Why this pick
  • Bia Mesquita eats 1.5 fewer strikes per minute
  • Bia Mesquita rides a 3-fight longer win streak
  • Bia Mesquita lands 1.3 more sig strikes per minute
  • the case against Macy Chiasson stuffs 62% more incoming takedowns
  • Bia Mesquita rides a 3-fight win streak (Macy Chiasson: 0)
Method Breakdown
Chiasson Mesquita
KO/TKO 11.3
6.6
Submission 4.0
27.2
Decision 17.7
33.2
Finish Distribution · By Round
26
R1
15
R2
8
R3
51
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Chiasson Mesquita
Str/min 3.2
4.5
Sig Acc 46%
57%
Str Def 45%
71%
TD/min 0.12
0.24
Finish 50%
100%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
23
27
ChiassonMesquita
Combined 67 16–111
Takedowns
0.7
1.8
ChiassonMesquita
Combined 2.1 0.0–5.2
Fight length
Expected 2.1 of 3 rounds 51% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Mesquita

    Bia Mesquita eats 1.5 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Mesquita

    Bia Mesquita rides a 3-fight longer win streak

  • 03 Striking volume favours Mesquita

    Bia Mesquita lands 1.3 more sig strikes per minute

  • 04 Submission rate favours Mesquita

    Bia Mesquita taps opponents 86% more often

  • 05 Finish rate favours Mesquita

    Bia Mesquita finishes 50% more of their wins

  • 06 Takedown defence favours Chiasson

    Macy Chiasson stuffs 62% more incoming takedowns

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Adrian Yanez
Adrian Yanez
United States 17-6-1 Boxer Orthodox 1 win
37% | 63%
Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 15 Nov · 8:00 AM AEST
Juan Diaz
Juan Diaz
Peru 15-1-1 MMA nan 1 win
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Juan Diaz
63.0 %
050100
CI · 33 – 93 · σ 0.112 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Juan Diaz eats 3.6 fewer strikes per minute
  • Juan Diaz taps opponents 100% more often
  • Juan Diaz hits 0.55 more takedowns per minute
  • the case against Adrian Yanez lands 4.5 more sig strikes per minute
  • Adrian Yanez out-volumes opponents at 5.9 sig/min vs Juan Diaz's 1.4
Method Breakdown
Yanez Diaz
KO/TKO 13.8
32.7
Submission 1.7
11.5
Decision 21.6
18.7
Finish Distribution · By Round
31
R1
18
R2
10
R3
40
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Yanez Diaz
Str/min 5.9
1.4
Sig Acc 42%
52%
Str Def 57%
55%
TD/min 0.00
0.55
Finish 73%
100%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
30
30
YanezDiaz
Combined 71 13–120
Takedowns
0.0
1.5
YanezDiaz
Combined 1.9 0.0–5.5
Fight length
Expected 1.9 of 3 rounds 40% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Diaz

    Juan Diaz eats 3.6 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Yanez

    Adrian Yanez lands 4.5 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Submission rate favours Diaz

    Juan Diaz taps opponents 100% more often

  • 04 KO rate favours Yanez

    Adrian Yanez finishes by KO 73% more often

  • 05 Takedown volume favours Diaz

    Juan Diaz hits 0.55 more takedowns per minute

  • 06 Finish rate favours Diaz

    Juan Diaz finishes 27% more of their wins

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Nazim Sadykhov
Nazim Sadykhov
Russia 11-2-1 Freestyle Southpaw 2-fight loss streak
76% | 24%
Lightweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 15 Nov · 8:00 AM AEST
JN
Jefferson Nascimento
Brazil 13-1-0 Freestyle Orthodox 1 loss
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Nazim Sadykhov
76.2 %
050100
CI · 46 – 98 · σ 0.099 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Nazim Sadykhov lands 2.9 more sig strikes per minute
  • Nazim Sadykhov has been KO'd 71% less often
  • Nazim Sadykhov has been finished 71% less often
  • the case against Jefferson Nascimento eats 3.5 fewer strikes per minute
  • Nazim Sadykhov out-volumes opponents at 4.7 sig/min vs Jefferson Nascimento's 1.8
Method Breakdown
Sadykhov Nascimento
KO/TKO 24.5
9.0
Submission 7.3
3.5
Decision 44.4
11.2
Finish Distribution · By Round
25
R1
14
R2
5
R3
56
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Sadykhov Nascimento
Str/min 4.7
1.8
Sig Acc 47%
37%
Str Def 47%
57%
TD/min 0.09
0.00
Finish 86%
76%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
30
23
SadykhovNascimento
Combined 73 14–128
Takedowns
0.4
0.1
SadykhovNascimento
Combined 1.5 0.0–4.2
Fight length
Expected 2.1 of 3 rounds 56% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Nascimento

    Jefferson Nascimento eats 3.5 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Sadykhov

    Nazim Sadykhov lands 2.9 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 KO durability favours Sadykhov

    Nazim Sadykhov has been KO'd 71% less often

  • 04 Durability favours Sadykhov

    Nazim Sadykhov has been finished 71% less often

  • 05 Submission rate favours Sadykhov

    Nazim Sadykhov taps opponents 14% more often

  • 06 Finish rate favours Sadykhov

    Nazim Sadykhov finishes 10% more of their wins

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