Updated 2026-10-17 19:21 AEST
12
Bouts
1
Events
New here? How to read these predictions
Win probability
Our model's estimate that a fighter wins — e.g. 72% means we'd expect them to win roughly 7 of 10 times.
Confidence interval (CI)
The range the true probability likely falls in. Wider = less certain. A pick'em fight has a wide band; a clear favourite a narrow one.
Edge
How much higher our probability is than the bookmaker's implied odds. Positive edge = we think it's underpriced.
EV (expected value)
Average return if you placed the bet many times. +15% EV means about 15c profit per $1 staked, on average.
Risk tiers
Conservative leans to safe favourites, Balanced blends, Aggressive chases bigger-odds longshots. Pick what suits you.
Edge badges
Strong / Solid / Slight edge rank how much value the model sees — and how big a stake it suggests. They're not a promise the bet wins.

Tap any fight row to open the full model breakdown. New to the model itself? How it works · FAQ.

Josh Hokit
Hokit
Title · Main Event
64%
Model Leans Gane
2026-11-15
Ciryl Gane
Gane
UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit
2026
15
NOV
⚡ Next Event

UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit

Madison Square Garden, New York, USA
12
Bouts
Josh Hokit
Josh Hokit
United States 9-0-0 Wrestling Orthodox 4-fight win streak
SB 3.01
36% | 64%
Heavyweight 5 rds
⏱ Sun 15 Nov · 2:30 PM AEST
Ciryl Gane
C Ciryl Gane
France 13-2-0 Muay Thai Orthodox 1 win
SB 1.35
Model Favourite
Ciryl Gane
63.6 %
Market · 69% on Gane · Moirai −5 pts
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Ciryl Gane eats 3.8 fewer strikes per minute
  • the case against Josh Hokit lands 4.9 more sig strikes per minute
  • Josh Hokit out-volumes opponents at 10.3 sig/min vs Ciryl Gane's 5.4
Method Breakdown
Hokit Gane
KO/TKO 16.8
27.8
Submission 7.7
10.2
Decision 11.9
25.7
Finish Distribution · By Round
24
R1
17
R2
10
R3
7
R4
5
R5
38
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Hokit Gane
Str/min 10.3
5.4
Sig Acc 64%
62%
Str Def 48%
61%
TD/min 0.10
0.04
Finish 75%
57%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
46
55
HokitGane
Combined 102 19–219
Takedowns
0.5
0.4
HokitGane
Combined 0.8 0.0–4.3
Fight length
Expected 3.0 of 5 rounds 38% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Gane

    Ciryl Gane eats 3.8 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Hokit

    Josh Hokit lands 4.9 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Win streak favours Hokit

    Josh Hokit rides a 3-fight longer win streak

  • 04 KO rate favours Hokit

    Josh Hokit wins by knockout in 75% of fights, Ciryl Gane in 36%

  • 05 Takedown defence favours Hokit

    Josh Hokit stops 78% of takedown attempts, Ciryl Gane 47%

  • 06 Finish rate favours Hokit

    Josh Hokit finishes 75% of fights, Ciryl Gane 57%

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed
No markets passed the value gate. 2 markets analysed.
Amanda Nunes
Amanda Nunes
Brazil 23-5-0 Striker Orthodox 2-fight win streak
SB 2.57
26% | 74%
Women's Bantamweight 5 rds
⏱ Sun 15 Nov · 1:45 PM AEST
Kayla Harrison
C Kayla Harrison
United States 19-1-0 Judo Southpaw 3-fight win streak
SB 1.47
Model Favourite
Kayla Harrison
73.9 %
Market · 64% on Harrison · Moirai +10 pts
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Kayla Harrison eats 1.3 fewer strikes per minute
  • Kayla Harrison wins by submission in 67% of fights, Amanda Nunes in 17%
  • Kayla Harrison rides a 1-fight longer win streak
  • the case against Amanda Nunes wins by knockout in 44% of fights, Kayla Harrison in 0%
  • Amanda Nunes has a 15-fight UFC experience edge (18 vs 3)
Method Breakdown
Nunes Harrison
KO/TKO 12.6
20.5
Submission 3.5
16.7
Decision 9.9
36.6
Finish Distribution · By Round
15
R1
15
R2
10
R3
7
R4
5
R5
47
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Nunes Harrison
Str/min 4.5
4.3
Sig Acc 52%
62%
Str Def 59%
66%
TD/min 0.19
0.19
Finish 67%
67%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
40
42
NunesHarrison
Combined 87 19–189
Takedowns
0.3
1.1
NunesHarrison
Combined 1.7 0.0–5.6
Fight length
Expected 3.4 of 5 rounds 47% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Harrison

    Kayla Harrison eats 1.3 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Submission rate favours Harrison

    Kayla Harrison wins by submission in 67% of fights, Amanda Nunes in 17%

  • 03 KO rate favours Nunes

    Amanda Nunes wins by knockout in 44% of fights, Kayla Harrison in 0%

  • 04 Win streak favours Harrison

    Kayla Harrison rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 05 Takedown defence favours Harrison

    Kayla Harrison stops 100% of takedown attempts, Amanda Nunes 81%

  • 06 Striking volume favours Nunes

    Amanda Nunes lands 0.2 more sig strikes per minute

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 2 markets analysed
No markets passed the value gate. 2 markets analysed.
Caio Borralho
Caio Borralho
Brazil 18-2-0 MMA Southpaw 1 win
48% | 52%
Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 15 Nov · 12:00 PM AEST
Yousri Belgaroui
Yousri Belgaroui
Netherlands 9-3-0 Striker Orthodox 3-fight win streak
Model Favourite
Yousri Belgaroui
52.0 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Yousri Belgaroui lands 5.0 more sig strikes per minute
  • Yousri Belgaroui finishes 100% of fights, Caio Borralho 22%
  • Yousri Belgaroui eats 0.7 fewer strikes per minute
  • the case against Caio Borralho stops 74% of takedown attempts, Yousri Belgaroui 56%
  • Yousri Belgaroui out-volumes opponents at 8.3 sig/min vs Caio Borralho's 3.3
Method Breakdown
Borralho Belgaroui
KO/TKO 13.0
28.1
Submission 19.0
1.2
Decision 16.0
22.6
Finish Distribution · By Round
33
R1
19
R2
10
R3
39
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Borralho Belgaroui
Str/min 3.3
8.3
Sig Acc 55%
65%
Str Def 60%
70%
TD/min 0.07
0.03
Finish 22%
100%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
33
44
BorralhoBelgaroui
Combined 94 20–138
Takedowns
0.9
0.0
BorralhoBelgaroui
Combined 1.5 0.0–4.3
Fight length
Expected 1.9 of 3 rounds 39% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Belgaroui

    Yousri Belgaroui lands 5.0 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Finish rate favours Belgaroui

    Yousri Belgaroui finishes 100% of fights, Caio Borralho 22%

  • 03 Strikes absorbed favours Belgaroui

    Yousri Belgaroui eats 0.7 fewer strikes per minute

  • 04 KO rate favours Belgaroui

    Yousri Belgaroui wins by knockout in 100% of fights, Caio Borralho in 11%

  • 05 Win streak favours Belgaroui

    Yousri Belgaroui rides a 2-fight longer win streak

  • 06 Takedown defence favours Borralho

    Caio Borralho stops 74% of takedown attempts, Yousri Belgaroui 56%

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
Sportsbet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Kevin Holland
Kevin Holland
United States 29-15-0 Kung Fu Orthodox 1 win
55% | 45%
Welterweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 15 Nov · 12:00 PM AEST
Uros Medic
Uros Medic
Serbia 13-3-0 MMA Southpaw 4-fight win streak
Model Favourite
Kevin Holland
54.6 %
Confidence · Low · sub-models disagree
Why this pick
  • Kevin Holland eats 0.2 fewer strikes per minute
  • Kevin Holland wins by submission in 21% of fights, Uros Medic in 0%
  • the case against Uros Medic rides a 3-fight longer win streak
  • Uros Medic rides a 4-fight win streak (Kevin Holland: 1)
Method Breakdown
Holland Medic
KO/TKO 31.5
23.7
Submission 14.6
1.8
Decision 8.5
20.0
Finish Distribution · By Round
39
R1
22
R2
10
R3
28
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Holland Medic
Str/min 4.2
5.3
Sig Acc 50%
58%
Str Def 50%
56%
TD/min 0.06
0.02
Finish 55%
100%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
39
32
HollandMedic
Combined 68 16–136
Takedowns
0.2
0.0
HollandMedic
Combined 0.9 0.0–3.7
Fight length
Expected 1.6 of 3 rounds 28% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Medic

    Uros Medic rides a 3-fight longer win streak

  • 02 Finish rate favours Medic

    Uros Medic finishes 100% of fights, Kevin Holland 55%

  • 03 Striking volume favours Medic

    Uros Medic lands 1.1 more sig strikes per minute

  • 04 KO rate favours Medic

    Uros Medic wins by knockout in 82% of fights, Kevin Holland in 24%

  • 05 Strikes absorbed favours Holland

    Kevin Holland eats 0.2 fewer strikes per minute

  • 06 Submission rate favours Holland

    Kevin Holland wins by submission in 21% of fights, Uros Medic in 0%

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
Sportsbet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Luis Gurule
Luis Gurule
United States 10-3-0 Orthodox 1 loss
27% | 73%
Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 15 Nov · 12:00 PM AEST
BH
Bilal Hasan
United States 1-0-0 1 win
Model Favourite
Bilal Hasan
73.4 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Bilal Hasan is favoured at 73% — fight-history features sparse
  • Bilal Hasan has 1 UFC fight — too little to compare fight stats, so this pick leans on age, size and pre-UFC record
Method Breakdown
Gurule Hasan
KO/TKO 11.1
25.3
Submission 2.8
13.6
Decision 12.7
34.5
Finish Distribution · By Round
30
R1
16
R2
7
R3
47
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Gurule Hasan
Str/min 5.0
6.2
Sig Acc 41%
42%
Str Def 57%
50%
TD/min 0.05
0.13
Finish 40%
87%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
40
43
GuruleHasan
Combined 82 17–156
Takedowns
0.1
0.2
GuruleHasan
Combined 1.5 0.0–4.5
Fight length
Expected 2.0 of 3 rounds 47% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Model lean favours Hasan

    Bilal Hasan is favoured at 73% — fight-history features sparse

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
Sportsbet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Stephen Thompson
Stephen Thompson
United States 17-9-1 Karate Orthodox 3-fight loss streak
25% | 75%
Welterweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 15 Nov · 10:00 AM AEST
Charles Radtke
Charles Radtke
United States 12-5-0 Orthodox 2-fight win streak
Model Favourite
Charles Radtke
75.2 %
Confidence · Medium · limited UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Charles Radtke eats 0.5 fewer strikes per minute
  • Charles Radtke rides a 2-fight longer win streak
  • Charles Radtke finishes 71% of fights, Stephen Thompson 41%
  • the case against Stephen Thompson lands 1.5 more sig strikes per minute
  • Stephen Thompson out-volumes opponents at 4.0 sig/min vs Charles Radtke's 2.5
Method Breakdown
Thompson Radtke
KO/TKO 8.9
24.6
Submission 2.9
19.2
Decision 13.1
31.4
Finish Distribution · By Round
30
R1
17
R2
9
R3
44
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Thompson Radtke
Str/min 4.0
2.5
Sig Acc 46%
54%
Str Def 55%
55%
TD/min 0.02
0.13
Finish 41%
71%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
36
34
ThompsonRadtke
Combined 70 16–141
Takedowns
0.0
1.4
ThompsonRadtke
Combined 1.7 0.0–4.5
Fight length
Expected 2.0 of 3 rounds 44% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Radtke

    Charles Radtke eats 0.5 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Thompson

    Stephen Thompson lands 1.5 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Win streak favours Radtke

    Charles Radtke rides a 2-fight longer win streak

  • 04 Finish rate favours Radtke

    Charles Radtke finishes 71% of fights, Stephen Thompson 41%

  • 05 Takedown defence favours Radtke

    Charles Radtke stops 100% of takedown attempts, Stephen Thompson 63%

  • 06 Control time favours Radtke

    Charles Radtke spends 51% of fight time in control, Stephen Thompson 6%

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
Sportsbet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Drew Dober
Drew Dober
United States 29-15-0 Freestyle Southpaw 2-fight win streak
34% | 66%
Lightweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 15 Nov · 10:00 AM AEST
Chris Duncan
Chris Duncan
Scotland 15-3-0 Striker Orthodox 1 loss
Model Favourite
Chris Duncan
66.0 %
Confidence · Medium · sub-models broadly agree
Why this pick
  • Chris Duncan wins by submission in 38% of fights, Drew Dober in 4%
  • Chris Duncan hits 0.15 more takedowns per minute
  • Chris Duncan eats 0.1 fewer strikes per minute
  • the case against Drew Dober rides a 2-fight longer win streak
  • Drew Dober has never been finished in 27 fights
Method Breakdown
Dober Duncan
KO/TKO 13.0
19.7
Submission 4.2
14.7
Decision 16.8
31.6
Finish Distribution · By Round
28
R1
17
R2
7
R3
48
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Dober Duncan
Str/min 4.5
4.6
Sig Acc 41%
46%
Str Def 53%
52%
TD/min 0.04
0.19
Finish 70%
62%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
38
44
DoberDuncan
Combined 72 18–151
Takedowns
0.1
1.2
DoberDuncan
Combined 1.8 0.0–4.7
Fight length
Expected 2.0 of 3 rounds 48% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Dober

    Drew Dober rides a 2-fight longer win streak

  • 02 KO rate favours Dober

    Drew Dober wins by knockout in 52% of fights, Chris Duncan in 0%

  • 03 Submission rate favours Duncan

    Chris Duncan wins by submission in 38% of fights, Drew Dober in 4%

  • 04 Takedown volume favours Duncan

    Chris Duncan hits 0.15 more takedowns per minute

  • 05 Strikes absorbed favours Duncan

    Chris Duncan eats 0.1 fewer strikes per minute

  • 06 Finish rate favours Dober

    Drew Dober finishes 70% of fights, Chris Duncan 62%

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
Sportsbet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Jim Miller
Jim Miller
United States 39-19-0 Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Southpaw 1 win
43% | 57%
Lightweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 15 Nov · 10:00 AM AEST
Terrance McKinney
Terrance McKinney
United States 18-8-0 MMA Switch Stance 1 loss
Model Favourite
Terrance McKinney
57.4 %
Confidence · High · sub-models agree closely
Why this pick
  • Terrance McKinney lands 4.9 more sig strikes per minute
  • Terrance McKinney finishes 100% of fights, Jim Miller 53%
  • Terrance McKinney wins by knockout in 64% of fights, Jim Miller in 17%
  • the case against Jim Miller eats 1.2 fewer strikes per minute
  • Terrance McKinney out-volumes opponents at 7.8 sig/min vs Jim Miller's 2.9
Method Breakdown
Miller McKinney
KO/TKO 5.1
29.1
Submission 23.8
8.4
Decision 13.8
19.9
Finish Distribution · By Round
37
R1
21
R2
9
R3
34
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Miller McKinney
Str/min 2.9
7.8
Sig Acc 42%
56%
Str Def 57%
42%
TD/min 0.10
0.20
Finish 53%
100%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
23
30
MillerMcKinney
Combined 39 10–135
Takedowns
0.2
1.1
MillerMcKinney
Combined 1.9 0.0–5.0
Fight length
Expected 1.7 of 3 rounds 34% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours McKinney

    Terrance McKinney lands 4.9 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Miller

    Jim Miller eats 1.2 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 Finish rate favours McKinney

    Terrance McKinney finishes 100% of fights, Jim Miller 53%

  • 04 KO rate favours McKinney

    Terrance McKinney wins by knockout in 64% of fights, Jim Miller in 17%

  • 05 Win streak favours Miller

    Jim Miller rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 06 Takedown defence favours McKinney

    Terrance McKinney stops 73% of takedown attempts, Jim Miller 48%

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
Sportsbet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Baisangur Susurkaev
Baisangur Susurkaev
Russia 12-0-0 Striker Orthodox 3-fight win streak
72% | 28%
Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 15 Nov · 10:00 AM AEST
Donte Johnson
Donte Johnson
United States 8-0-0 MMA Southpaw 3-fight win streak
Model Favourite
Baisangur Susurkaev
72.5 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Baisangur Susurkaev lands 3.1 more sig strikes per minute
  • Baisangur Susurkaev finishes 100% of fights, Donte Johnson 67%
  • Baisangur Susurkaev wins by submission in 67% of fights, Donte Johnson in 33%
  • the case against Donte Johnson eats 2.8 fewer strikes per minute
  • Baisangur Susurkaev out-volumes opponents at 6.0 sig/min vs Donte Johnson's 2.9
Method Breakdown
Susurkaev Johnson
KO/TKO 21.3
13.5
Submission 10.8
1.1
Decision 40.3
12.9
Finish Distribution · By Round
25
R1
14
R2
7
R3
53
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Susurkaev Johnson
Str/min 6.0
2.9
Sig Acc 54%
43%
Str Def 59%
63%
TD/min 0.15
0.13
Finish 100%
67%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
38
31
SusurkaevJohnson
Combined 75 16–138
Takedowns
0.5
0.3
SusurkaevJohnson
Combined 1.6 0.0–4.7
Fight length
Expected 2.1 of 3 rounds 53% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Johnson

    Donte Johnson eats 2.8 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Susurkaev

    Baisangur Susurkaev lands 3.1 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Finish rate favours Susurkaev

    Baisangur Susurkaev finishes 100% of fights, Donte Johnson 67%

  • 04 Submission rate favours Susurkaev

    Baisangur Susurkaev wins by submission in 67% of fights, Donte Johnson in 33%

  • 05 Takedown defence favours Susurkaev

    Baisangur Susurkaev stops 100% of takedown attempts, Donte Johnson 77%

  • 06 Striking accuracy favours Susurkaev

    Baisangur Susurkaev lands 54% of significant strikes thrown, Donte Johnson 43%

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
Sportsbet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Macy Chiasson
Macy Chiasson
United States 11-6-0 MMA Orthodox 3-fight loss streak
34% | 66%
Women's Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 15 Nov · 8:00 AM AEST
Bia Mesquita
Bia Mesquita
Brazil 6-0-0 Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 3-fight win streak
Model Favourite
Bia Mesquita
65.8 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Bia Mesquita eats 1.5 fewer strikes per minute
  • Bia Mesquita rides a 3-fight longer win streak
  • Bia Mesquita wins by submission in 100% of fights, Macy Chiasson in 14%
  • the case against Macy Chiasson stops 62% of takedown attempts, Bia Mesquita 0%
  • Bia Mesquita rides a 3-fight win streak (Macy Chiasson: 0)
Method Breakdown
Chiasson Mesquita
KO/TKO 10.0
3.4
Submission 4.3
33.8
Decision 19.8
28.6
Finish Distribution · By Round
27
R1
15
R2
9
R3
48
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Chiasson Mesquita
Str/min 3.2
4.5
Sig Acc 46%
57%
Str Def 45%
71%
TD/min 0.12
0.24
Finish 50%
100%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
28
32
ChiassonMesquita
Combined 70 15–112
Takedowns
0.4
1.6
ChiassonMesquita
Combined 2.2 0.0–5.1
Fight length
Expected 2.0 of 3 rounds 48% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Mesquita

    Bia Mesquita eats 1.5 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Mesquita

    Bia Mesquita rides a 3-fight longer win streak

  • 03 Submission rate favours Mesquita

    Bia Mesquita wins by submission in 100% of fights, Macy Chiasson in 14%

  • 04 Finish rate favours Mesquita

    Bia Mesquita finishes 100% of fights, Macy Chiasson 50%

  • 05 Striking volume favours Mesquita

    Bia Mesquita lands 1.3 more sig strikes per minute

  • 06 Takedown defence favours Chiasson

    Macy Chiasson stops 62% of takedown attempts, Bia Mesquita 0%

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
Sportsbet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Adrian Yanez
Adrian Yanez
United States 17-6-1 Boxing Orthodox 1 win
34% | 66%
Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 15 Nov · 8:00 AM AEST
Juan Diaz
Juan Diaz
Peru 15-1-1 MMA 1 win
Model Favourite
Juan Diaz
66.2 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Juan Diaz is favoured at 66% — fight-history features sparse
  • Juan Diaz has 1 UFC fight — too little to compare fight stats, so this pick leans on age, size and pre-UFC record
Method Breakdown
Yanez Diaz
KO/TKO 14.1
29.0
Submission 1.9
17.0
Decision 17.9
20.2
Finish Distribution · By Round
32
R1
19
R2
11
R3
38
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Yanez Diaz
Str/min 5.9
1.4
Sig Acc 42%
52%
Str Def 57%
55%
TD/min 0.00
0.55
Finish 73%
100%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
34
29
YanezDiaz
Combined 59 12–127
Takedowns
0.0
1.4
YanezDiaz
Combined 1.5 0.0–5.0
Fight length
Expected 1.9 of 3 rounds 38% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Model lean favours Diaz

    Juan Diaz is favoured at 66% — fight-history features sparse

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
Sportsbet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Nazim Sadykhov
Nazim Sadykhov
Russia 11-2-1 Freestyle Southpaw 2-fight loss streak
62% | 38%
Lightweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 15 Nov · 8:00 AM AEST
JN
Jefferson Nascimento
Brazil 13-1-0 Freestyle Orthodox 1 loss
Model Favourite
Nazim Sadykhov
62.4 %
Confidence · Low · little UFC data on at least one fighter
Why this pick
  • Nazim Sadykhov is favoured at 62% — fight-history features sparse
  • Jefferson Nascimento has 1 UFC fight — too little to compare fight stats, so this pick leans on age, size and pre-UFC record
Method Breakdown
Sadykhov Nascimento
KO/TKO 28.1
16.2
Submission 9.8
6.2
Decision 24.6
15.1
Finish Distribution · By Round
33
R1
19
R2
8
R3
40
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Sadykhov Nascimento
Str/min 4.7
2.7
Sig Acc 47%
47%
Str Def 47%
57%
TD/min 0.09
0.03
Finish 86%
88%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
29
30
SadykhovNascimento
Combined 67 13–128
Takedowns
0.6
0.0
SadykhovNascimento
Combined 1.0 0.0–4.4
Fight length
Expected 1.8 of 3 rounds 40% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Model lean favours Sadykhov

    Nazim Sadykhov is favoured at 62% — fight-history features sparse

Value Bets · Sportsbet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
Sportsbet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.