Updated 2026-09-06 12:01 AEST
8
Bouts
0
Events
New here? How to read these predictions
Win probability
Our model's estimate that a fighter wins — e.g. 72% means we'd expect them to win roughly 7 of 10 times.
Confidence interval (CI)
The range the true probability likely falls in. Wider = less certain. A pick'em fight has a wide band; a clear favourite a narrow one.
Edge
How much higher our probability is than the bookmaker's implied odds. Positive edge = we think it's underpriced.
EV (expected value)
Average return if you placed the bet many times. +15% EV means about 15c profit per $1 staked, on average.
Risk tiers
Conservative leans to safe favourites, Balanced blends, Aggressive chases bigger-odds longshots. Pick what suits you.
Edge badges
Strong / Solid / Slight edge rank how much value the model sees — and how big a stake it suggests. They're not a promise the bet wins.

Tap any fight row to open the full model breakdown. New to the model itself? How it works · FAQ.

Natalia Silva
Silva
Main Event
68%
Model Leans Silva
2026-10-03
Wang Cong
Cong
UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang
2026
03
OCT
⚡ Next Event

UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang

Delta Center, Salt Lake City, USA
8
Bouts
Natalia Silva
Natalia Silva
Brazil 20-5-1 Taekwondo Southpaw 8-fight win streak
68% | 32%
Women's Flyweight 5 rds
⏱ Sun 4 Oct · 11:00 AM AEST
Wang Cong
Wang Cong
China 9-1-0 Striker Southpaw 4-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Natalia Silva
68.4 %
050100
CI · 38 – 98 · σ 0.064 · High
Why this pick
  • Natalia Silva rides a 4-fight longer win streak
  • Natalia Silva eats 0.5 fewer strikes per minute
  • Natalia Silva finishes by KO 8% more often
  • the case against Wang Cong lands 2.0 more sig strikes per minute
  • Natalia Silva rides a 8-fight win streak (Wang Cong: 4)
Method Breakdown
Silva Cong
KO/TKO 16.8
6.4
Submission 13.6
5.0
Decision 38.1
20.1
Finish Distribution · By Round
16
R1
12
R2
10
R3
0
R4
3
R5
58
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Silva Cong
Str/min 4.8
6.8
Sig Acc 45%
58%
Str Def 66%
60%
TD/min 0.03
0.03
Finish 25%
33%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
62
63
SilvaCong
Combined 171 25–258
Takedowns
0.6
0.1
SilvaCong
Combined 1.0 0.0–4.1
Fight length
Expected 3.6 of 5 rounds 58% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Silva

    Natalia Silva rides a 4-fight longer win streak

  • 02 Striking volume favours Cong

    Wang Cong lands 2.0 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Strikes absorbed favours Silva

    Natalia Silva eats 0.5 fewer strikes per minute

  • 04 Striking accuracy favours Cong

    Wang Cong is 13% more accurate on the feet

  • 05 Finish rate favours Cong

    Wang Cong finishes 8% more of their wins

  • 06 KO rate favours Silva

    Natalia Silva finishes by KO 8% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Deiveson Figueiredo
Deiveson Figueiredo
Brazil 25-6-1 Boxing Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
22% | 78%
Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 4 Oct · 11:00 AM AEST
Payton Talbott
Payton Talbott
United States 11-1-0 Switch Stance 2-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Payton Talbott
78.3 %
050100
CI · 48 – 98 · σ 0.086 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Payton Talbott lands 3.3 more sig strikes per minute
  • Payton Talbott eats 0.4 fewer strikes per minute
  • Payton Talbott rides a 2-fight longer win streak
  • Payton Talbott out-volumes opponents at 5.9 sig/min vs Deiveson Figueiredo's 2.6
Method Breakdown
Figueiredo Talbott
KO/TKO 2.0
43.7
Submission 12.4
11.5
Decision 7.3
23.1
Finish Distribution · By Round
33
R1
26
R2
11
R3
30
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Figueiredo Talbott
Str/min 2.6
5.9
Sig Acc 54%
59%
Str Def 50%
45%
TD/min 0.11
0.06
Finish 55%
50%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
28
41
FigueiredoTalbott
Combined 73 20–140
Takedowns
0.8
0.0
FigueiredoTalbott
Combined 1.0 0.0–4.3
Fight length
Expected 1.7 of 3 rounds 30% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Talbott

    Payton Talbott lands 3.3 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Talbott

    Payton Talbott eats 0.4 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 Win streak favours Talbott

    Payton Talbott rides a 2-fight longer win streak

  • 04 Loss streak favours Talbott

    Payton Talbott comes in on a 2-fight cleaner skid

  • 05 Takedown defence favours Talbott

    Payton Talbott stuffs 15% more incoming takedowns

  • 06 KO rate favours Talbott

    Payton Talbott finishes by KO 6% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Johnny Walker
Johnny Walker
Brazil 22-10-0 MMA Orthodox 1 loss
31% | 69%
Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 4 Oct · 11:00 AM AEST
Mick Parkin
Mick Parkin
England 10-1-0 MMA Orthodox 1 loss
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Mick Parkin
68.6 %
050100
CI · 39 – 98 · σ 0.061 · High
Why this pick
  • Mick Parkin lands 1.0 more sig strikes per minute
  • Mick Parkin stuffs 25% more incoming takedowns
  • Mick Parkin avoids 11% more incoming strikes
  • the case against Johnny Walker eats 1.1 fewer strikes per minute
  • Mick Parkin has never been finished in 5 fights
Method Breakdown
Walker Parkin
KO/TKO 16.4
30.4
Submission 3.5
1.3
Decision 11.5
36.9
Finish Distribution · By Round
23
R1
21
R2
8
R3
48
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Walker Parkin
Str/min 3.7
4.7
Sig Acc 53%
50%
Str Def 49%
60%
TD/min 0.02
0.06
Finish 69%
20%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
42
45
WalkerParkin
Combined 88 22–147
Takedowns
0.0
0.1
WalkerParkin
Combined 0.4 0.0–4.0
Fight length
Expected 2.1 of 3 rounds 48% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Walker

    Johnny Walker eats 1.1 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Parkin

    Mick Parkin lands 1.0 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Finish rate favours Walker

    Johnny Walker finishes 49% more of their wins

  • 04 KO rate favours Walker

    Johnny Walker finishes by KO 42% more often

  • 05 Takedown defence favours Parkin

    Mick Parkin stuffs 25% more incoming takedowns

  • 06 Striking defence favours Parkin

    Mick Parkin avoids 11% more incoming strikes

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Marvin Vettori
Marvin Vettori
Italy 19-10-1 MMA Southpaw 4-fight loss streak
22% | 78%
Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 4 Oct · 11:00 AM AEST
Ismail Naurdiev
Ismail Naurdiev
Morocco 25-8-0 Wrestling Orthodox 1 win
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Ismail Naurdiev
78.2 %
050100
CI · 48 – 98 · σ 0.053 · High
Why this pick
  • Ismail Naurdiev eats 2.8 fewer strikes per minute
  • Ismail Naurdiev rides a 1-fight longer win streak
  • Ismail Naurdiev comes in on a 4-fight cleaner skid
  • the case against Marvin Vettori lands 1.1 more sig strikes per minute
  • Marvin Vettori has never been finished in 18 fights
Method Breakdown
Vettori Naurdiev
KO/TKO 2.7
15.7
Submission 9.2
8.0
Decision 10.0
54.5
Finish Distribution · By Round
19
R1
10
R2
6
R3
65
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Vettori Naurdiev
Str/min 4.7
3.7
Sig Acc 46%
53%
Str Def 56%
65%
TD/min 0.09
0.10
Finish 11%
14%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
46
61
VettoriNaurdiev
Combined 124 26–157
Takedowns
0.3
0.2
VettoriNaurdiev
Combined 1.4 0.0–4.6
Fight length
Expected 2.3 of 3 rounds 65% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Naurdiev

    Ismail Naurdiev eats 2.8 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Vettori

    Marvin Vettori lands 1.1 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Win streak favours Naurdiev

    Ismail Naurdiev rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 04 Loss streak favours Naurdiev

    Ismail Naurdiev comes in on a 4-fight cleaner skid

  • 05 KO rate favours Naurdiev

    Ismail Naurdiev finishes by KO 14% more often

  • 06 Submission rate favours Vettori

    Marvin Vettori taps opponents 11% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Roman Kopylov
Roman Kopylov
Russia 15-5-0 Southpaw 1 win
22% | 78%
Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 4 Oct · 9:00 AM AEST
Ateba Gautier
Ateba Gautier
Cameroon 11-1-0 Striker Switch Stance 5-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Ateba Gautier
78.1 %
050100
CI · 48 – 98 · σ 0.115 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Ateba Gautier eats 2.0 fewer strikes per minute
  • Ateba Gautier rides a 4-fight longer win streak
  • Ateba Gautier finishes by KO 38% more often
  • the case against Roman Kopylov lands 0.5 more sig strikes per minute
  • Ateba Gautier rides a 5-fight win streak (Roman Kopylov: 1)
Method Breakdown
Kopylov Gautier
KO/TKO 9.7
47.3
Submission 1.2
5.8
Decision 11.0
25.0
Finish Distribution · By Round
35
R1
18
R2
11
R3
36
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Kopylov Gautier
Str/min 4.5
4.0
Sig Acc 50%
38%
Str Def 53%
54%
TD/min 0.07
0.04
Finish 58%
80%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
36
46
KopylovGautier
Combined 86 20–155
Takedowns
0.0
0.0
KopylovGautier
Combined 0.2 0.0–3.7
Fight length
Expected 1.8 of 3 rounds 36% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Gautier

    Ateba Gautier eats 2.0 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Gautier

    Ateba Gautier rides a 4-fight longer win streak

  • 03 KO rate favours Gautier

    Ateba Gautier finishes by KO 38% more often

  • 04 Striking volume favours Kopylov

    Roman Kopylov lands 0.5 more sig strikes per minute

  • 05 Finish rate favours Gautier

    Ateba Gautier finishes 22% more of their wins

  • 06 Striking accuracy favours Kopylov

    Roman Kopylov is 13% more accurate on the feet

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Alden Coria
Alden Coria
United States 12-3-0 Freestyle Orthodox 3-fight win streak
49% | 51%
Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 4 Oct · 9:00 AM AEST
Imanol Rodriguez
Imanol Rodriguez
Mexico 7-0-0 Freestyle Orthodox 1 win
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Imanol Rodriguez
50.9 %
050100
CI · 21 – 81 · σ 0.073 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Imanol Rodriguez finishes 71% more of their wins
  • Imanol Rodriguez finishes by KO 71% more often
  • Imanol Rodriguez lands 1.4 more sig strikes per minute
  • the case against Alden Coria rides a 2-fight longer win streak
  • Alden Coria rides a 3-fight win streak (Imanol Rodriguez: 1)
Method Breakdown
Coria Rodriguez
KO/TKO 8.6
18.0
Submission 6.5
5.5
Decision 33.9
27.4
Finish Distribution · By Round
21
R1
11
R2
7
R3
61
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Coria Rodriguez
Str/min 3.6
4.9
Sig Acc 37%
55%
Str Def 70%
58%
TD/min 0.13
0.11
Finish 29%
100%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
29
36
CoriaRodriguez
Combined 73 18–125
Takedowns
0.6
0.6
CoriaRodriguez
Combined 2.0 0.0–5.1
Fight length
Expected 2.3 of 3 rounds 61% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Finish rate favours Rodriguez

    Imanol Rodriguez finishes 71% more of their wins

  • 02 KO rate favours Rodriguez

    Imanol Rodriguez finishes by KO 71% more often

  • 03 Striking volume favours Rodriguez

    Imanol Rodriguez lands 1.4 more sig strikes per minute

  • 04 Win streak favours Coria

    Alden Coria rides a 2-fight longer win streak

  • 05 Strikes absorbed favours Coria

    Alden Coria eats 0.1 fewer strikes per minute

  • 06 Striking accuracy favours Rodriguez

    Imanol Rodriguez is 18% more accurate on the feet

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Andrey Pulyaev
Andrey Pulyaev
Russia 10-3-0 MMA Southpaw 2-fight loss streak
26% | 74%
Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 4 Oct · 7:00 AM AEST
Damian Pinas
Damian Pinas
9-1-0 MMA Orthodox 2-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Damian Pinas
74.3 %
050100
CI · 44 – 98 · σ 0.067 · High
Why this pick
  • Damian Pinas lands 3.0 more sig strikes per minute
  • Damian Pinas finishes by KO 75% more often
  • Damian Pinas rides a 2-fight longer win streak
  • the case against Andrey Pulyaev eats 2.6 fewer strikes per minute
  • Damian Pinas out-volumes opponents at 5.5 sig/min vs Andrey Pulyaev's 2.5
Method Breakdown
Pulyaev Pinas
KO/TKO 9.8
36.3
Submission 3.8
8.8
Decision 12.0
29.2
Finish Distribution · By Round
32
R1
16
R2
10
R3
41
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Pulyaev Pinas
Str/min 2.5
5.5
Sig Acc 47%
71%
Str Def 57%
37%
TD/min 0.00
0.00
Finish 50%
100%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
29
31
PulyaevPinas
Combined 60 16–129
Takedowns
0.1
0.1
PulyaevPinas
Combined 1.1 0.0–3.8
Fight length
Expected 1.9 of 3 rounds 41% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Pulyaev

    Andrey Pulyaev eats 2.6 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Pinas

    Damian Pinas lands 3.0 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 KO rate favours Pinas

    Damian Pinas finishes by KO 75% more often

  • 04 Win streak favours Pinas

    Damian Pinas rides a 2-fight longer win streak

  • 05 Finish rate favours Pinas

    Damian Pinas finishes 50% more of their wins

  • 06 Takedown defence favours Pinas

    Damian Pinas stuffs 40% more incoming takedowns

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Court McGee
Court McGee
United States 23-14-0 Freestyle Orthodox 1 loss
54% | 46%
Welterweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 4 Oct · 7:00 AM AEST
Eric Nolan
Eric Nolan
United States 8-4-0 Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Court McGee
54.1 %
050100
CI · 24 – 84 · σ 0.082 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Court McGee lands 2.8 more sig strikes per minute
  • Court McGee stuffs 27% more incoming takedowns
  • Court McGee finishes by KO 12% more often
  • the case against Eric Nolan eats 1.1 fewer strikes per minute
  • Court McGee out-volumes opponents at 4.5 sig/min vs Eric Nolan's 1.7
Method Breakdown
McGee Nolan
KO/TKO 2.4
13.6
Submission 14.5
10.5
Decision 37.2
21.7
Finish Distribution · By Round
18
R1
13
R2
10
R3
59
DEC
Key Stats career avg
McGee Nolan
Str/min 4.5
1.7
Sig Acc 37%
35%
Str Def 61%
45%
TD/min 0.12
0.00
Finish 25%
50%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
48
37
McGeeNolan
Combined 89 21–137
Takedowns
1.8
0.1
McGeeNolan
Combined 2.1 0.0–5.1
Fight length
Expected 2.3 of 3 rounds 59% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours McGee

    Court McGee lands 2.8 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Nolan

    Eric Nolan eats 1.1 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 Finish rate favours Nolan

    Eric Nolan finishes 25% more of their wins

  • 04 Takedown defence favours McGee

    Court McGee stuffs 27% more incoming takedowns

  • 05 KO rate favours McGee

    Court McGee finishes by KO 12% more often

  • 06 Takedown volume favours McGee

    Court McGee hits 0.12 more takedowns per minute

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.