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⟁ Past Events — Predictions vs. Actual Results
71 of 99
confident picks landed — when the model gives a fighter 70%+ it has been right 72% of the time
15–26
betting record with the same amount on every recommended bet (-13.7 units — early days, small sample)
Bankroll curve
+$361
2026-06-15
peak $460 · trough $-968
2026-10-10
UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang 8/12 · 67%
2026-10-03
Model Prediction
Natalia Silva
✓ won
66%
KO 19%·
Sub 7%·
Dec 40%
Wang Cong
34%
KO 9%·
Sub 4%·
Dec 21%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Natalia Silva wins | 66% | 1.41 | ✓ predicted |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 61% | — | ✓ predicted |
Model Prediction
Deiveson Figueiredo
20%
KO 3%·
Sub 9%·
Dec 7%
Payton Talbott
✓ won
80%
KO 46%·
Sub 11%·
Dec 23%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Payton Talbott wins | 80% | 1.14 | ✓ predicted |
| Finish round Finish in Round 1 | 33% | — | ✓ predicted |
Model Prediction
King Green
37%
KO 5%·
Sub 4%·
Dec 27%
Esteban Ribovics
✓ won
63%
KO 20%·
Sub 6%·
Dec 37%
Model Prediction
Roberto Soldić
✓ won
23%
KO 3%·
Sub 4%·
Dec 16%
Khaos Williams
77%
KO 58%·
Sub 4%·
Dec 16%
Model Prediction
Roman Kopylov
✓ won
18%
KO 9%·
Sub 1%·
Dec 8%
Ateba Gautier
82%
KO 52%·
Sub 4%·
Dec 26%
Model Prediction
Alden Coria
49%
KO 14%·
Sub 10%·
Dec 25%
Imanol Rodriguez
✓ won
51%
KO 21%·
Sub 4%·
Dec 27%
Model Prediction
Andrey Pulyaev
26%
KO 10%·
Sub 4%·
Dec 12%
Damian Pinas
✓ won
74%
KO 43%·
Sub 6%·
Dec 25%
Model Prediction
no model pick — one fighter had no fight-record data (e.g. a promotional debut)
Model Prediction
Anthony Wint
✓ won
65%
KO 18%·
Sub 24%·
Dec 23%
Lucas Armand
35%
KO 16%·
Sub 7%·
Dec 13%
Model Prediction
Johnny Walker
✓ won
32%
KO 15%·
Sub 4%·
Dec 14%
Mick Parkin
68%
KO 38%·
Sub 2%·
Dec 28%
Model Prediction
no model pick — one fighter had no fight-record data (e.g. a promotional debut)
RA
32-17-0
Winner
Alexander Hernandez
KO/TKO · R2
✓ predicted
18-8-0
Model Prediction
Rafael Dos Anjos
31%
KO 2%·
Sub 10%·
Dec 20%
Alexander Hernandez
✓ won
69%
KO 19%·
Sub 6%·
Dec 44%
Model Prediction
Marvin Vettori
24%
KO 2%·
Sub 8%·
Dec 14%
Ismail Naurdiev
✓ won
76%
KO 19%·
Sub 5%·
Dec 52%
Model Prediction
Court McGee
54%
KO 5%·
Sub 15%·
Dec 33%
Eric Nolan
✓ won
46%
KO 16%·
Sub 7%·
Dec 23%