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Track record
Every pick, graded
What the model said before each fight, what happened, and the locked bets it would have placed. Losses stay on the page.
71 of 102
confident picks landed — when the model gives a fighter 70%+ it has been right 70% of the time
15–27
betting record with the same amount on every recommended bet (-14.7 units — early days, small sample)
Bankroll curve
+$281
2026-06-15
peak $460 · trough $-968
2026-10-17
UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang 8/12 · 67%
2026-10-03
Model Prediction
Natalia Silva
✓ won
66%
KO 19%·
Sub 7%·
Dec 40%
Wang Cong
34%
KO 9%·
Sub 4%·
Dec 21%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Natalia Silva wins | 66% | 1.41 | ✓ predicted |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 61% | — | ✓ predicted |
Model Prediction
Deiveson Figueiredo
20%
KO 3%·
Sub 9%·
Dec 7%
Payton Talbott
✓ won
80%
KO 46%·
Sub 11%·
Dec 23%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Payton Talbott wins | 80% | 1.14 | ✓ predicted |
| Finish round Finish in Round 1 | 33% | — | ✓ predicted |
Model Prediction
King Green
37%
KO 5%·
Sub 4%·
Dec 27%
Esteban Ribovics
✓ won
63%
KO 20%·
Sub 6%·
Dec 37%
Model Prediction
Roberto Soldić
✓ won
23%
KO 3%·
Sub 4%·
Dec 16%
Khaos Williams
77%
KO 58%·
Sub 4%·
Dec 16%
Model Prediction
Roman Kopylov
✓ won
18%
KO 9%·
Sub 1%·
Dec 8%
Ateba Gautier
82%
KO 52%·
Sub 4%·
Dec 26%
Model Prediction
Alden Coria
49%
KO 14%·
Sub 10%·
Dec 25%
Imanol Rodriguez
✓ won
51%
KO 21%·
Sub 4%·
Dec 27%
Model Prediction
Andrey Pulyaev
26%
KO 10%·
Sub 4%·
Dec 12%
Damian Pinas
✓ won
74%
KO 43%·
Sub 6%·
Dec 25%
Model Prediction
no model pick — one fighter had no fight-record data (e.g. a promotional debut)
Model Prediction
Anthony Wint
✓ won
65%
KO 18%·
Sub 24%·
Dec 23%
Lucas Armand
35%
KO 16%·
Sub 7%·
Dec 13%
Model Prediction
Johnny Walker
✓ won
32%
KO 15%·
Sub 4%·
Dec 14%
Mick Parkin
68%
KO 38%·
Sub 2%·
Dec 28%
Model Prediction
no model pick — one fighter had no fight-record data (e.g. a promotional debut)
RA
32-17-0
Winner
Alexander Hernandez
KO/TKO · R2
✓ predicted
18-8-0
Model Prediction
Rafael Dos Anjos
31%
KO 2%·
Sub 10%·
Dec 20%
Alexander Hernandez
✓ won
69%
KO 19%·
Sub 6%·
Dec 44%
Model Prediction
Marvin Vettori
24%
KO 2%·
Sub 8%·
Dec 14%
Ismail Naurdiev
✓ won
76%
KO 19%·
Sub 5%·
Dec 52%
Model Prediction
Court McGee
54%
KO 5%·
Sub 15%·
Dec 33%
Eric Nolan
✓ won
46%
KO 16%·
Sub 7%·
Dec 23%