Updated 2026-07-21 01:49 AEST
7
Bouts
0
Events
New here? How to read these predictions
Win probability
Our model's estimate that a fighter wins — e.g. 72% means we'd expect them to win roughly 7 of 10 times.
Confidence interval (CI)
The range the true probability likely falls in. Wider = less certain. A pick'em fight has a wide band; a clear favourite a narrow one.
Edge
How much higher our probability is than the bookmaker's implied odds. Positive edge = we think it's underpriced.
EV (expected value)
Average return if you placed the bet many times. +15% EV means about 15c profit per $1 staked, on average.
Risk tiers
Conservative leans to safe favourites, Balanced blends, Aggressive chases bigger-odds longshots. Pick what suits you.
Edge badges
Strong / Solid / Slight edge rank how much value the model sees — and how big a stake it suggests. They're not a promise the bet wins.

Tap any fight row to open the full model breakdown. New to the model itself? How it works · FAQ.

TB
TBA
Main Event
50%
Model Leans TBA
2026-09-12
OT
TBA
Noche UFC
2026
12
SEP
⚡ Next Event

Noche UFC

Desert Diamond Arena, Glendale, USA
7
Bouts
TB
TBA
— | —
No model pick
5 rds ⏱ Sun 13 Sep · 10:00 AM AEST
OT
Opponent TBA
Breakdown ▼
⟁ No model pick — one fighter has no fight-record data in any source (typically a promotional debut), so the model can't price this bout.
Brandon Moreno
Brandon Moreno
Mexico 23-10-2 Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
56% | 44%
Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 13 Sep · 10:00 AM AEST
Joseph Morales
Joseph Morales
United States 15-2-0 Freestyle Switch Stance 2-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Brandon Moreno
56.3 %
050100
90% CI · 26 – 86 · σ 0.073 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Brandon Moreno lands 1.8 more sig strikes per minute
  • Brandon Moreno stuffs 39% more incoming takedowns
  • the case against Joseph Morales eats 1.6 fewer strikes per minute
  • Brandon Moreno has a 15-fight UFC experience edge (20 vs 5)
Method Breakdown
Moreno Morales
KO/TKO 12.8
0.1
Submission 8.3
9.0
Decision 35.2
34.7
Finish Distribution · By Round
16
R1
10
R2
5
R3
70
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Moreno Morales
Str/min 3.8
2.0
Sig Acc 44%
41%
Str Def 60%
58%
TD/min 0.09
0.08
Finish 35%
80%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
44
33
MorenoMorales
Combined 78 21–125
Takedowns
0.4
0.4
MorenoMorales
Combined 2.1 0.0–4.6
Fight length
Expected 2.4 of 3 rounds 70% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Morales

    Joseph Morales eats 1.6 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Moreno

    Brandon Moreno lands 1.8 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Win streak favours Morales

    Joseph Morales rides a 2-fight longer win streak

  • 04 Finish rate favours Morales

    Joseph Morales finishes 45% more of their wins

  • 05 Submission rate favours Morales

    Joseph Morales taps opponents 45% more often

  • 06 Takedown defence favours Moreno

    Brandon Moreno stuffs 39% more incoming takedowns

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Tim Elliott
Tim Elliott
United States 22-14-1 Freestyle Southpaw 1 loss
25% | 75%
Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 13 Sep · 10:00 AM AEST
Edgar Chairez
Edgar Chairez
Mexico 13-6-0 Freestyle Orthodox 3-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Edgar Chairez
74.6 %
050100
90% CI · 45 – 98 · σ 0.077 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Edgar Chairez rides a 3-fight longer win streak
  • Edgar Chairez taps opponents 29% more often
  • Edgar Chairez lands 0.3 more sig strikes per minute
  • the case against Tim Elliott eats 1.6 fewer strikes per minute
  • Edgar Chairez rides a 3-fight win streak (Tim Elliott: 0)
Method Breakdown
Elliott Chairez
KO/TKO 0.1
10.6
Submission 3.5
22.6
Decision 21.9
41.4
Finish Distribution · By Round
14
R1
14
R2
9
R3
63
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Elliott Chairez
Str/min 3.5
3.9
Sig Acc 43%
48%
Str Def 56%
45%
TD/min 0.24
0.00
Finish 36%
43%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
46
43
ElliottChairez
Combined 89 23–156
Takedowns
1.7
0.0
ElliottChairez
Combined 2.5 0.0–5.8
Fight length
Expected 2.4 of 3 rounds 63% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Elliott

    Tim Elliott eats 1.6 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Chairez

    Edgar Chairez rides a 3-fight longer win streak

  • 03 Submission rate favours Chairez

    Edgar Chairez taps opponents 29% more often

  • 04 Takedown volume favours Elliott

    Tim Elliott hits 0.24 more takedowns per minute

  • 05 Striking volume favours Chairez

    Edgar Chairez lands 0.3 more sig strikes per minute

  • 06 Striking defence favours Elliott

    Tim Elliott avoids 11% more incoming strikes

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Curtis Blaydes
Curtis Blaydes
United States 19-6-0 MMA Orthodox 1 loss
38% | 62%
Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 13 Sep · 10:00 AM AEST
Waldo Cortes Acosta
Waldo Cortes Acosta
Dominican Republic 17-3-0 Striker Orthodox 1 loss
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Waldo Cortes Acosta
62.5 %
050100
90% CI · 32 – 92 · σ 0.076 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Waldo Cortes Acosta lands 1.0 more sig strikes per minute
  • Waldo Cortes Acosta stuffs 39% more incoming takedowns
  • the case against Curtis Blaydes eats 0.9 fewer strikes per minute
  • Waldo Cortes Acosta has never been finished in 13 fights
Method Breakdown
Blaydes Acosta
KO/TKO 16.2
30.5
Submission 1.5
4.1
Decision 19.8
27.8
Finish Distribution · By Round
18
R1
24
R2
11
R3
48
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Blaydes Acosta
Str/min 4.2
5.2
Sig Acc 52%
49%
Str Def 54%
55%
TD/min 0.34
0.03
Finish 62%
38%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
55
50
BlaydesAcosta
Combined 113 23–174
Takedowns
1.0
0.0
BlaydesAcosta
Combined 0.7 0.0–5.9
Fight length
Expected 2.1 of 3 rounds 48% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Blaydes

    Curtis Blaydes eats 0.9 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Acosta

    Waldo Cortes Acosta lands 1.0 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Takedown volume favours Blaydes

    Curtis Blaydes hits 0.31 more takedowns per minute

  • 04 Finish rate favours Blaydes

    Curtis Blaydes finishes 23% more of their wins

  • 05 Takedown defence favours Acosta

    Waldo Cortes Acosta stuffs 39% more incoming takedowns

  • 06 KO rate favours Blaydes

    Curtis Blaydes finishes by KO 23% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Alexa Grasso
Alexa Grasso
Mexico 17-5-1 MMA Orthodox 1 win
38% | 62%
Women's Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 13 Sep · 10:00 AM AEST
Manon Fiorot
Manon Fiorot
France 13-2-0 Karate Orthodox 1 win
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Manon Fiorot
61.9 %
050100
90% CI · 32 – 92 · σ 0.077 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Manon Fiorot lands 1.5 more sig strikes per minute
  • Manon Fiorot finishes by KO 27% more often
  • Manon Fiorot stuffs 33% more incoming takedowns
  • the case against Alexa Grasso taps opponents 13% more often
  • Manon Fiorot out-volumes opponents at 5.7 sig/min vs Alexa Grasso's 4.1
Method Breakdown
Grasso Fiorot
KO/TKO 7.1
15.3
Submission 2.0
2.2
Decision 29.0
44.4
Finish Distribution · By Round
13
R1
8
R2
5
R3
73
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Grasso Fiorot
Str/min 4.1
5.7
Sig Acc 41%
42%
Str Def 59%
67%
TD/min 0.03
0.07
Finish 27%
33%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
65
67
GrassoFiorot
Combined 134 24–178
Takedowns
0.0
0.3
GrassoFiorot
Combined 1.1 0.0–4.1
Fight length
Expected 2.5 of 3 rounds 73% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Fiorot

    Manon Fiorot lands 1.5 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 KO rate favours Fiorot

    Manon Fiorot finishes by KO 27% more often

  • 03 Takedown defence favours Fiorot

    Manon Fiorot stuffs 33% more incoming takedowns

  • 04 Strikes absorbed favours Fiorot

    Manon Fiorot eats 0.1 fewer strikes per minute

  • 05 Submission rate favours Grasso

    Alexa Grasso taps opponents 13% more often

  • 06 Finish rate favours Fiorot

    Manon Fiorot finishes 7% more of their wins

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Kelvin Gastelum
Kelvin Gastelum
United States 21-11-0 Boxing Southpaw 1 loss
22% | 78%
Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 13 Sep · 10:00 AM AEST
Yousri Belgaroui
Yousri Belgaroui
Netherlands 9-3-0 Striker Orthodox 2-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Yousri Belgaroui
77.9 %
050100
90% CI · 48 – 98 · σ 0.058 · High
Why this pick
  • Yousri Belgaroui lands 4.3 more sig strikes per minute
  • Yousri Belgaroui eats 1.9 fewer strikes per minute
  • Yousri Belgaroui finishes by KO 88% more often
  • Yousri Belgaroui out-volumes opponents at 8.0 sig/min vs Kelvin Gastelum's 3.7
Method Breakdown
Gastelum Belgaroui
KO/TKO 6.4
33.5
Submission 6.8
6.5
Decision 8.9
37.9
Finish Distribution · By Round
19
R1
22
R2
12
R3
47
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Gastelum Belgaroui
Str/min 3.7
8.0
Sig Acc 42%
67%
Str Def 57%
71%
TD/min 0.07
0.04
Finish 35%
100%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
35
52
GastelumBelgaroui
Combined 90 23–155
Takedowns
0.7
0.0
GastelumBelgaroui
Combined 0.9 0.0–4.5
Fight length
Expected 2.1 of 3 rounds 47% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Belgaroui

    Yousri Belgaroui lands 4.3 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Belgaroui

    Yousri Belgaroui eats 1.9 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 KO rate favours Belgaroui

    Yousri Belgaroui finishes by KO 88% more often

  • 04 Finish rate favours Belgaroui

    Yousri Belgaroui finishes 65% more of their wins

  • 05 Win streak favours Belgaroui

    Yousri Belgaroui rides a 2-fight longer win streak

  • 06 Striking accuracy favours Belgaroui

    Yousri Belgaroui is 24% more accurate on the feet

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
JJ Aldrich
JJ Aldrich
United States 15-7-0 Striker Southpaw 2-fight win streak
35% | 65%
Women's Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 13 Sep · 7:00 AM AEST
RT
Regina Tarin
1-0-0 nan 1 win
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Regina Tarin
65.2 %
050100
90% CI · 35 – 95 · σ 0.090 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Regina Tarin lands 3.7 more sig strikes per minute
  • the case against JJ Aldrich eats 2.7 fewer strikes per minute
  • Regina Tarin out-volumes opponents at 7.6 sig/min vs JJ Aldrich's 3.9
Method Breakdown
Aldrich Tarin
KO/TKO 7.9
21.6
Submission 5.1
6.0
Decision 21.7
37.6
Finish Distribution · By Round
20
R1
13
R2
7
R3
59
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Aldrich Tarin
Str/min 3.9
7.6
Sig Acc 46%
48%
Str Def 62%
58%
TD/min 0.05
0.07
Finish 18%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
59
62
AldrichTarin
Combined 124 25–183
Takedowns
0.2
0.2
AldrichTarin
Combined 1.3 0.0–4.2
Fight length
Expected 2.3 of 3 rounds 59% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Aldrich

    JJ Aldrich eats 2.7 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Tarin

    Regina Tarin lands 3.7 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Win streak favours Aldrich

    JJ Aldrich rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 04 Finish rate favours Aldrich

    JJ Aldrich finishes 18% more of their wins

  • 05 KO rate favours Aldrich

    JJ Aldrich finishes by KO 12% more often

  • 06 Takedown defence favours Aldrich

    JJ Aldrich stuffs 18% more incoming takedowns

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.