Updated 2026-08-28 14:04 AEST
12
Bouts
0
Events
New here? How to read these predictions
Win probability
Our model's estimate that a fighter wins — e.g. 72% means we'd expect them to win roughly 7 of 10 times.
Confidence interval (CI)
The range the true probability likely falls in. Wider = less certain. A pick'em fight has a wide band; a clear favourite a narrow one.
Edge
How much higher our probability is than the bookmaker's implied odds. Positive edge = we think it's underpriced.
EV (expected value)
Average return if you placed the bet many times. +15% EV means about 15c profit per $1 staked, on average.
Risk tiers
Conservative leans to safe favourites, Balanced blends, Aggressive chases bigger-odds longshots. Pick what suits you.
Edge badges
Strong / Solid / Slight edge rank how much value the model sees — and how big a stake it suggests. They're not a promise the bet wins.

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Jean Silva
Silva
Main Event
75%
Model Leans Delgado
2026-09-12
Jose Delgado
Delgado
Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado
2026
12
SEP
⚡ Next Event

Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado

Desert Diamond Arena, Glendale, USA
12
Bouts
Jean Silva
Jean Silva
Brazil 17-3-0 Striker Orthodox
25% | 75%
Featherweight 5 rds
Jose Delgado
Jose Delgado
United States 10-2-0 Switch Stance 2-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Jose Delgado
74.7 %
050100
CI · 45 – 98 · σ 0.047 · High
Why this pick
  • Jose Delgado rides a 2-fight longer win streak
  • Jose Delgado out-volumes opponents at 6.0 sig/min vs Jean Silva's 0.0
Method Breakdown
Silva Delgado
KO/TKO 4.4
33.1
Submission 7.0
11.0
Decision 13.9
30.6
Finish Distribution · By Round
17
R1
16
R2
11
R3
7
R4
4
R5
44
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Silva Delgado
Str/min 0.0
6.0
Sig Acc 0%
55%
Str Def 0%
53%
TD/min 0.00
0.04
Finish 0%
40%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
28
43
SilvaDelgado
Combined 88 21–225
Takedowns
0.8
0.2
SilvaDelgado
Combined 1.4 0.0–4.7
Fight length
Expected 3.3 of 5 rounds 44% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Delgado

    Jose Delgado rides a 2-fight longer win streak

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
SportsBet odds pending — value bets will appear here closer to event.
Brandon Moreno
Brandon Moreno
Mexico 23-10-2 Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
58% | 42%
Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 13 Sep · 7:00 AM AEST
Joseph Morales
Joseph Morales
United States 15-2-0 Freestyle Switch Stance 2-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Brandon Moreno
58.0 %
050100
CI · 28 – 88 · σ 0.084 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Brandon Moreno lands 1.8 more sig strikes per minute
  • Brandon Moreno stuffs 39% more incoming takedowns
  • the case against Joseph Morales eats 1.6 fewer strikes per minute
  • Brandon Moreno has a 15-fight UFC experience edge (20 vs 5)
Method Breakdown
Moreno Morales
KO/TKO 10.1
2.5
Submission 23.0
10.2
Decision 25.0
29.3
Finish Distribution · By Round
23
R1
14
R2
9
R3
54
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Moreno Morales
Str/min 3.8
2.0
Sig Acc 44%
41%
Str Def 60%
58%
TD/min 0.09
0.08
Finish 35%
80%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
35
34
MorenoMorales
Combined 66 21–120
Takedowns
0.4
0.5
MorenoMorales
Combined 1.9 0.0–4.2
Fight length
Expected 2.2 of 3 rounds 54% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Morales

    Joseph Morales eats 1.6 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Morales

    Joseph Morales rides a 2-fight longer win streak

  • 03 Striking volume favours Moreno

    Brandon Moreno lands 1.8 more sig strikes per minute

  • 04 Finish rate favours Morales

    Joseph Morales finishes 45% more of their wins

  • 05 Submission rate favours Morales

    Joseph Morales taps opponents 45% more often

  • 06 Takedown defence favours Moreno

    Brandon Moreno stuffs 39% more incoming takedowns

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Tommy McMillen
Tommy McMillen
United States 10-0-0 MMA Orthodox 2-fight win streak
42% | 58%
Featherweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 13 Sep · 7:00 AM AEST
Marwan Rahiki
Marwan Rahiki
Morocco 9-0-0 Striker nan 2-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Marwan Rahiki
57.8 %
050100
CI · 28 – 88 · σ 0.096 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Marwan Rahiki finishes 18% more of their wins
  • Marwan Rahiki finishes by KO 18% more often
  • Marwan Rahiki is 14% more accurate on the feet
  • the case against Tommy McMillen lands 6.6 more sig strikes per minute
  • Tommy McMillen out-volumes opponents at 15.3 sig/min vs Marwan Rahiki's 8.8
Method Breakdown
McMillen Rahiki
KO/TKO 18.1
28.8
Submission 8.1
9.3
Decision 16.0
19.7
Finish Distribution · By Round
46
R1
15
R2
3
R3
36
DEC
Key Stats career avg
McMillen Rahiki
Str/min 15.3
8.8
Sig Acc 41%
55%
Str Def 63%
59%
TD/min 0.00
0.00
Finish 82%
100%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
29
35
McMillenRahiki
Combined 63 16–143
Takedowns
0.0
0.1
McMillenRahiki
Combined 0.4 0.0–3.8
Fight length
Expected 1.6 of 3 rounds 36% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours McMillen

    Tommy McMillen lands 6.6 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours McMillen

    Tommy McMillen eats 1.4 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 Finish rate favours Rahiki

    Marwan Rahiki finishes 18% more of their wins

  • 04 KO rate favours Rahiki

    Marwan Rahiki finishes by KO 18% more often

  • 05 Striking accuracy favours Rahiki

    Marwan Rahiki is 14% more accurate on the feet

  • 06 Striking defence favours McMillen

    Tommy McMillen avoids 5% more incoming strikes

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Alexa Grasso
Alexa Grasso
Mexico 17-5-1 MMA Orthodox 1 win
39% | 61%
Women's Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 13 Sep · 7:00 AM AEST
Manon Fiorot
Manon Fiorot
France 13-2-0 Karate Orthodox 1 win
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Manon Fiorot
61.0 %
050100
CI · 31 – 91 · σ 0.065 · High
Why this pick
  • Manon Fiorot lands 1.5 more sig strikes per minute
  • Manon Fiorot finishes by KO 27% more often
  • Manon Fiorot stuffs 33% more incoming takedowns
  • the case against Alexa Grasso taps opponents 13% more often
  • Manon Fiorot out-volumes opponents at 5.7 sig/min vs Alexa Grasso's 4.1
Method Breakdown
Grasso Fiorot
KO/TKO 10.5
16.1
Submission 2.4
3.4
Decision 26.1
41.6
Finish Distribution · By Round
15
R1
11
R2
7
R3
68
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Grasso Fiorot
Str/min 4.1
5.7
Sig Acc 41%
42%
Str Def 59%
67%
TD/min 0.03
0.07
Finish 27%
33%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
63
68
GrassoFiorot
Combined 135 23–200
Takedowns
0.0
0.2
GrassoFiorot
Combined 1.0 0.0–3.7
Fight length
Expected 2.4 of 3 rounds 68% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Striking volume favours Fiorot

    Manon Fiorot lands 1.5 more sig strikes per minute

  • 02 KO rate favours Fiorot

    Manon Fiorot finishes by KO 27% more often

  • 03 Takedown defence favours Fiorot

    Manon Fiorot stuffs 33% more incoming takedowns

  • 04 Strikes absorbed favours Fiorot

    Manon Fiorot eats 0.1 fewer strikes per minute

  • 05 Submission rate favours Grasso

    Alexa Grasso taps opponents 13% more often

  • 06 Finish rate favours Fiorot

    Manon Fiorot finishes 7% more of their wins

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Curtis Blaydes
Curtis Blaydes
United States 19-6-0 MMA Orthodox 1 loss
39% | 61%
Heavyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 13 Sep · 7:00 AM AEST
Waldo Cortes Acosta
Waldo Cortes Acosta
Dominican Republic 17-3-0 Striker Orthodox 1 loss
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Waldo Cortes Acosta
61.3 %
050100
CI · 31 – 91 · σ 0.080 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Waldo Cortes Acosta lands 1.0 more sig strikes per minute
  • Waldo Cortes Acosta stuffs 39% more incoming takedowns
  • the case against Curtis Blaydes eats 0.9 fewer strikes per minute
  • Waldo Cortes Acosta has never been finished in 13 fights
Method Breakdown
Blaydes Acosta
KO/TKO 16.8
30.4
Submission 0.1
2.3
Decision 21.8
28.6
Finish Distribution · By Round
23
R1
15
R2
9
R3
50
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Blaydes Acosta
Str/min 4.2
5.2
Sig Acc 52%
49%
Str Def 54%
55%
TD/min 0.34
0.03
Finish 62%
38%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
56
51
BlaydesAcosta
Combined 112 21–173
Takedowns
0.9
0.0
BlaydesAcosta
Combined 0.8 0.0–5.5
Fight length
Expected 2.1 of 3 rounds 52% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Blaydes

    Curtis Blaydes eats 0.9 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Acosta

    Waldo Cortes Acosta lands 1.0 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Finish rate favours Blaydes

    Curtis Blaydes finishes 23% more of their wins

  • 04 Takedown volume favours Blaydes

    Curtis Blaydes hits 0.31 more takedowns per minute

  • 05 Takedown defence favours Acosta

    Waldo Cortes Acosta stuffs 39% more incoming takedowns

  • 06 KO rate favours Blaydes

    Curtis Blaydes finishes by KO 23% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Dan Ige
Dan Ige
United States 19-10-0 Jiu-Jitsu Orthodox 1 loss
18% | 82%
Bantamweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 13 Sep · 7:00 AM AEST
David Martinez
David Martinez
Mexico 14-1-0 Orthodox 3-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
David Martinez
81.9 %
050100
CI · 52 – 98 · σ 0.069 · High
Why this pick
  • David Martinez rides a 3-fight longer win streak
  • David Martinez eats 0.8 fewer strikes per minute
  • David Martinez stuffs 42% more incoming takedowns
  • the case against Dan Ige finishes 6% more of their wins
  • David Martinez rides a 3-fight win streak (Dan Ige: 0)
Method Breakdown
Ige Martinez
KO/TKO 2.6
23.5
Submission 2.9
4.3
Decision 12.5
54.2
Finish Distribution · By Round
15
R1
11
R2
7
R3
67
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Ige Martinez
Str/min 3.6
4.1
Sig Acc 46%
40%
Str Def 56%
70%
TD/min 0.05
0.05
Finish 35%
29%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
41
59
IgeMartinez
Combined 102 24–143
Takedowns
0.1
0.2
IgeMartinez
Combined 0.9 0.0–3.9
Fight length
Expected 2.4 of 3 rounds 67% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Martinez

    David Martinez rides a 3-fight longer win streak

  • 02 Strikes absorbed favours Martinez

    David Martinez eats 0.8 fewer strikes per minute

  • 03 Takedown defence favours Martinez

    David Martinez stuffs 42% more incoming takedowns

  • 04 Striking volume favours Martinez

    David Martinez lands 0.5 more sig strikes per minute

  • 05 Striking defence favours Martinez

    David Martinez avoids 14% more incoming strikes

  • 06 Finish rate favours Ige

    Dan Ige finishes 6% more of their wins

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Tim Elliott
Tim Elliott
United States 22-14-1 Freestyle Southpaw 1 loss
26% | 74%
Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 13 Sep · 4:00 AM AEST
Edgar Chairez
Edgar Chairez
Mexico 13-6-0 Freestyle Orthodox 3-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Edgar Chairez
74.3 %
050100
CI · 44 – 98 · σ 0.058 · High
Why this pick
  • Edgar Chairez rides a 3-fight longer win streak
  • Edgar Chairez taps opponents 29% more often
  • Edgar Chairez lands 0.3 more sig strikes per minute
  • the case against Tim Elliott eats 1.6 fewer strikes per minute
  • Edgar Chairez rides a 3-fight win streak (Tim Elliott: 0)
Method Breakdown
Elliott Chairez
KO/TKO 0.1
11.6
Submission 5.3
28.7
Decision 20.3
34.0
Finish Distribution · By Round
10
R1
17
R2
18
R3
54
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Elliott Chairez
Str/min 3.5
3.9
Sig Acc 43%
48%
Str Def 56%
45%
TD/min 0.24
0.00
Finish 36%
43%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
47
41
ElliottChairez
Combined 92 22–155
Takedowns
1.2
0.1
ElliottChairez
Combined 2.3 0.0–5.7
Fight length
Expected 2.4 of 3 rounds 54% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Elliott

    Tim Elliott eats 1.6 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Win streak favours Chairez

    Edgar Chairez rides a 3-fight longer win streak

  • 03 Submission rate favours Chairez

    Edgar Chairez taps opponents 29% more often

  • 04 Takedown volume favours Elliott

    Tim Elliott hits 0.24 more takedowns per minute

  • 05 Striking volume favours Chairez

    Edgar Chairez lands 0.3 more sig strikes per minute

  • 06 Takedown defence favours Elliott

    Tim Elliott stuffs 13% more incoming takedowns

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Muslim Salikhov
Muslim Salikhov
Russia 22-6-0 Orthodox 1 loss
35% | 65%
Welterweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 13 Sep · 4:00 AM AEST
Ignacio Bahamondes
Ignacio Bahamondes
Chile 17-7-0 Freestyle Orthodox 2-fight loss streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Ignacio Bahamondes
64.9 %
050100
CI · 35 – 95 · σ 0.069 · High
Why this pick
  • Ignacio Bahamondes lands 2.4 more sig strikes per minute
  • Ignacio Bahamondes taps opponents 20% more often
  • the case against Muslim Salikhov eats 1.2 fewer strikes per minute
  • Ignacio Bahamondes out-volumes opponents at 5.8 sig/min vs Muslim Salikhov's 3.4
Method Breakdown
Salikhov Bahamondes
KO/TKO 9.2
36.6
Submission 2.2
2.8
Decision 23.7
25.5
Finish Distribution · By Round
29
R1
14
R2
8
R3
49
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Salikhov Bahamondes
Str/min 3.4
5.8
Sig Acc 50%
46%
Str Def 62%
55%
TD/min 0.07
0.00
Finish 64%
50%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
34
48
SalikhovBahamondes
Combined 91 19–153
Takedowns
0.2
0.0
SalikhovBahamondes
Combined 0.4 0.0–3.5
Fight length
Expected 2.0 of 3 rounds 49% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Salikhov

    Muslim Salikhov eats 1.2 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Bahamondes

    Ignacio Bahamondes lands 2.4 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 KO rate favours Salikhov

    Muslim Salikhov finishes by KO 27% more often

  • 04 Finish rate favours Salikhov

    Muslim Salikhov finishes 14% more of their wins

  • 05 Submission rate favours Bahamondes

    Ignacio Bahamondes taps opponents 20% more often

  • 06 Loss streak favours Salikhov

    Muslim Salikhov comes in on a 1-fight cleaner skid

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Yousri Belgaroui
Yousri Belgaroui
Netherlands 9-3-0 Striker Orthodox 2-fight win streak
81% | 19%
Middleweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 13 Sep · 4:00 AM AEST
Djorden Santos
Djorden Santos
Brazil 11-3-0 Orthodox 1 loss
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Yousri Belgaroui
80.9 %
050100
CI · 51 – 98 · σ 0.100 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Yousri Belgaroui eats 6.0 fewer strikes per minute
  • Yousri Belgaroui finishes by KO 100% more often
  • Yousri Belgaroui finishes 67% more of their wins
  • Yousri Belgaroui out-volumes opponents at 8.0 sig/min vs Djorden Santos's 7.0
Method Breakdown
Belgaroui Santos
KO/TKO 44.5
7.2
Submission 10.2
3.2
Decision 26.1
8.7
Finish Distribution · By Round
33
R1
19
R2
13
R3
35
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Belgaroui Santos
Str/min 8.0
7.0
Sig Acc 67%
40%
Str Def 71%
48%
TD/min 0.04
0.02
Finish 100%
33%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
40
28
BelgarouiSantos
Combined 73 19–157
Takedowns
0.0
0.3
BelgarouiSantos
Combined 0.9 0.0–4.1
Fight length
Expected 1.8 of 3 rounds 35% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Belgaroui

    Yousri Belgaroui eats 6.0 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 KO rate favours Belgaroui

    Yousri Belgaroui finishes by KO 100% more often

  • 03 Finish rate favours Belgaroui

    Yousri Belgaroui finishes 67% more of their wins

  • 04 Win streak favours Belgaroui

    Yousri Belgaroui rides a 2-fight longer win streak

  • 05 Striking volume favours Belgaroui

    Yousri Belgaroui lands 1.0 more sig strikes per minute

  • 06 Striking accuracy favours Belgaroui

    Yousri Belgaroui is 27% more accurate on the feet

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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RV
Rodrigo Vera
Peru 22-1-1 nan 1 win
59% | 41%
Featherweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 13 Sep · 4:00 AM AEST
RJ
Ramiro Jimenez
Mexico 1-0-0 Southpaw
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Rodrigo Vera
59.1 %
050100
CI · 29 – 89 · σ 0.039 · High
Why this pick
  • Rodrigo Vera rides a 1-fight longer win streak
  • Rodrigo Vera out-volumes opponents at 7.0 sig/min vs Ramiro Jimenez's 0.0
Method Breakdown
Vera Jimenez
KO/TKO 16.4
10.7
Submission 12.4
9.7
Decision 30.3
20.5
Finish Distribution · By Round
31
R1
12
R2
6
R3
51
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Vera Jimenez
Str/min 7.0
0.0
Sig Acc 45%
0%
Str Def 50%
0%
TD/min 0.41
0.00
Finish 76%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
26
24
VeraJimenez
Combined 61 16–128
Takedowns
1.5
0.1
VeraJimenez
Combined 2.4 0.0–5.8
Fight length
Expected 2.0 of 3 rounds 51% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Win streak favours Vera

    Rodrigo Vera rides a 1-fight longer win streak

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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Rafa Garcia
Rafa Garcia
United States 18-4-0 Boxer Orthodox 3-fight win streak
70% | 30%
Lightweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 13 Sep · 4:00 AM AEST
RO
Rongzhu
China 28-6-0 Striker Orthodox 2-fight win streak
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Rafa Garcia
70.2 %
050100
CI · 40 – 98 · σ 0.095 · Medium
Why this pick
  • Rafa Garcia eats 1.4 fewer strikes per minute
  • Rafa Garcia rides a 1-fight longer win streak
  • Rafa Garcia hits 0.09 more takedowns per minute
  • the case against Rongzhu lands 1.3 more sig strikes per minute
  • Rongzhu out-volumes opponents at 5.6 sig/min vs Rafa Garcia's 4.3
Method Breakdown
Garcia Rongzhu
KO/TKO 10.0
9.6
Submission 22.9
2.0
Decision 37.3
18.3
Finish Distribution · By Round
20
R1
15
R2
10
R3
56
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Garcia Rongzhu
Str/min 4.3
5.6
Sig Acc 44%
50%
Str Def 61%
54%
TD/min 0.21
0.12
Finish 27%
50%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
51
47
GarciaRongzhu
Combined 108 22–173
Takedowns
1.1
0.1
GarciaRongzhu
Combined 1.7 0.0–4.5
Fight length
Expected 2.2 of 3 rounds 56% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Garcia

    Rafa Garcia eats 1.4 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Rongzhu

    Rongzhu lands 1.3 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Win streak favours Garcia

    Rafa Garcia rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 04 Finish rate favours Rongzhu

    Rongzhu finishes 23% more of their wins

  • 05 KO rate favours Rongzhu

    Rongzhu finishes by KO 15% more often

  • 06 Takedown volume favours Garcia

    Rafa Garcia hits 0.09 more takedowns per minute

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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JJ Aldrich
JJ Aldrich
United States 15-7-0 Striker Southpaw 2-fight win streak
38% | 62%
Women's Flyweight 3 rds
⏱ Sun 13 Sep · 4:00 AM AEST
RT
Regina Tarin
1-0-0 nan 1 win
Breakdown ▼
Model Favourite
Regina Tarin
61.6 %
050100
CI · 32 – 92 · σ 0.069 · High
Why this pick
  • Regina Tarin lands 3.7 more sig strikes per minute
  • the case against JJ Aldrich eats 2.7 fewer strikes per minute
  • Regina Tarin out-volumes opponents at 7.6 sig/min vs JJ Aldrich's 3.9
Method Breakdown
Aldrich Tarin
KO/TKO 7.2
14.0
Submission 3.8
2.5
Decision 27.4
45.0
Finish Distribution · By Round
14
R1
8
R2
5
R3
72
DEC
Key Stats career avg
Aldrich Tarin
Str/min 3.9
7.6
Sig Acc 46%
48%
Str Def 62%
58%
TD/min 0.05
0.07
Finish 18%
0%
Model Expectations MEDIAN · 80% INTERVAL
Sig strikes
59
62
AldrichTarin
Combined 127 22–187
Takedowns
0.1
0.2
AldrichTarin
Combined 1.4 0.0–3.9
Fight length
Expected 2.5 of 3 rounds 72% chance it goes the distance
Model Drivers RANKED BY MODEL IMPORTANCE × MATCHUP GAP
  • 01 Strikes absorbed favours Aldrich

    JJ Aldrich eats 2.7 fewer strikes per minute

  • 02 Striking volume favours Tarin

    Regina Tarin lands 3.7 more sig strikes per minute

  • 03 Win streak favours Aldrich

    JJ Aldrich rides a 1-fight longer win streak

  • 04 Finish rate favours Aldrich

    JJ Aldrich finishes 18% more of their wins

  • 05 Takedown defence favours Aldrich

    JJ Aldrich stuffs 18% more incoming takedowns

  • 06 KO rate favours Aldrich

    JJ Aldrich finishes by KO 12% more often

Value Bets · SportsBet 0 flagged · 0 markets analysed
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