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⟁ Past Events — Predictions vs. Actual Results
70 of 98
confident picks landed — when the model gives a fighter 70%+ it has been right 71% of the time
15–26
betting record with the same amount on every recommended bet (-13.7 units — early days, small sample)
Bankroll curve
+$361
2026-06-15
peak $460 · trough $-968
2026-10-10
Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado 9/13 · 69%
2026-09-12
Model Prediction
Curtis Blaydes
✓ won
35%
KO 9%·
Sub 0%·
Dec 25%
Waldo Cortes Acosta
65%
KO 39%·
Sub 3%·
Dec 23%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Waldo Cortes Acosta wins value | 65% | 3.75 | missed |
| Method Waldo Cortes Acosta wins by KO/TKO value | 39% | 5.10 | missed |
| Finish round Finish in Round 1 | 25% | — | missed |
Model Prediction
Dan Ige
20%
KO 5%·
Sub 2%·
Dec 13%
David Martinez
✓ won
80%
KO 27%·
Sub 4%·
Dec 49%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Dan Ige wins value | 20% | 7.75 | missed |
| Method Dan Ige wins by Decision | 13% | 19.00 | missed |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 62% | 3.45 | ✓ predicted |
Model Prediction
Tim Elliott
✓ won
30%
KO 2%·
Sub 4%·
Dec 24%
Édgar Cháirez
70%
KO 13%·
Sub 27%·
Dec 30%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Édgar Cháirez wins value | 70% | 4.00 | missed |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 54% | — | ✓ predicted |
22-6-0
Winner
Ignacio Bahamondes
Decision (U) · R3
✓ predicted
17-7-0
Model Prediction
Muslim Salikhov
25%
KO 9%·
Sub 1%·
Dec 15%
Ignacio Bahamondes
✓ won
75%
KO 47%·
Sub 4%·
Dec 24%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Ignacio Bahamondes wins | 75% | 1.11 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Ignacio Bahamondes wins by KO/TKO | 47% | 2.45 | missed |
| Finish round Finish in Round 1 | 33% | — | missed |
Model Prediction
Yousri Belgaroui
✓ won
84%
KO 42%·
Sub 7%·
Dec 36%
Djorden Santos
16%
KO 5%·
Sub 3%·
Dec 8%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Yousri Belgaroui wins | 84% | 1.10 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Yousri Belgaroui wins by KO/TKO | 42% | 1.70 | ✓ predicted |
| Finish round Finish in Round 1 | 30% | 3.05 | ✓ predicted |
Model Prediction
Drakkar Klose
22%
KO 7%·
Sub 2%·
Dec 13%
Tommy Gantt
✓ won
78%
KO 40%·
Sub 10%·
Dec 29%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Tommy Gantt wins | 78% | 1.25 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Tommy Gantt wins by KO/TKO | 40% | 2.70 | missed |
| Finish round Finish in Round 1 | 31% | — | missed |
Model Prediction
Rafa Garcia
56%
KO 7%·
Sub 21%·
Dec 27%
Rongzhu
✓ won
44%
KO 12%·
Sub 2%·
Dec 30%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Rafa Garcia wins value | 56% | 9.00 | missed |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 57% | — | ✓ predicted |
Model Prediction
Jean Silva
✓ won
52%
KO 5%·
Sub 13%·
Dec 34%
Jose Miguel Delgado
48%
KO 26%·
Sub 5%·
Dec 16%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Jean Silva wins | 52% | 1.21 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Jean Silva wins by Decision value | 34% | 5.90 | missed |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 50% | 4.05 | missed |
Model Prediction
Jessie Rosas
41%
KO 12%·
Sub 9%·
Dec 20%
Sean King III
✓ won
59%
KO 18%·
Sub 12%·
Dec 29%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Sean King III wins | 59% | 1.40 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Sean King III wins by Decision | 29% | 3.10 | missed |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 49% | 2.55 | missed |
Model Prediction
Tommy McMillen
✓ won
52%
KO 16%·
Sub 4%·
Dec 31%
Marwan Rahiki
48%
KO 37%·
Sub 3%·
Dec 8%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Tommy McMillen wins | 52% | 1.58 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Tommy McMillen wins by Decision | 31% | 4.20 | ✓ predicted |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 39% | 2.83 | ✓ predicted |
Model Prediction
Brandon Moreno
✓ won
52%
KO 16%·
Sub 14%·
Dec 23%
Joseph Morales
48%
KO 0%·
Sub 9%·
Dec 38%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Brandon Moreno wins | 52% | 1.96 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Brandon Moreno wins by Decision | 23% | 2.65 | ✓ predicted |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 61% | 3.02 | ✓ predicted |
Model Prediction
Alexa Grasso
✓ won
34%
KO 4%·
Sub 1%·
Dec 30%
Manon Fiorot
66%
KO 15%·
Sub 4%·
Dec 47%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Manon Fiorot wins | 66% | 1.35 | missed |
| Method Manon Fiorot wins by Decision | 47% | 1.69 | missed |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 76% | 1.25 | ✓ predicted |
Model Prediction
JJ Aldrich
32%
KO 5%·
Sub 4%·
Dec 23%
Regina Tarin
✓ won
68%
KO 15%·
Sub 3%·
Dec 50%
How the model read this fight
| Outcome | Model prob | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Regina Tarin wins | 68% | 1.32 | ✓ predicted |
| Method Regina Tarin wins by Decision | 50% | 1.94 | ✓ predicted |
| Finish round Goes the distance | 73% | 1.35 | ✓ predicted |